AI持续升温时值得关注的两个隐藏行业

全球最大的芯片制造商增长正在加速。

Growth is accelerating for the world's largest chipmaker.

你正在收听《富比士隐藏宝藏》投资节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

欢迎来到《富比士隐藏宝藏》投资节目。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是乔恩·夸斯特，今天邀请到了嘉宾马特·弗兰克尔和蕾切尔·沃伦。

I'm Jon Quast, and I'm joined today by contributors Matt Frankel and Rachel Warren.

稍后我们会回答一位听众来信的问题，关于出于个人原因卖出股票。

We're gonna take a question from the mailbag later in the show about selling a stock for personal reasons.

不过首先，我想聊聊台积电的最新动态。

But first, I wanted to hit this news from Taiwan Semiconductor.

它的股票代码是TSM。

That is ticker symbol TSM.

我之所以提这件事，不是因为这家公司是冷门标的。

Now the reason that I want to talk about this is not because it's a hidden company.

我知道这话一说准得挨骂，但这可是个市值两万亿美元的公司。

I know I'm gonna get skewered for this, but it's a $2,000,000,000,000 company.

没错。

Okay.

体量确实大。

It's large.

我明白。

I get it.

它确实算不上隐蔽公司。

It's not hidden.

但我认为还是有不少人没意识到它有多关键。

But I think that some people still underestimate how important it is.

这家公司生产了全球超过九成的顶尖芯片，占所有芯片总量的六成左右。

The company fabricates over 90% of the world's most advanced computer chips, and it's an estimated 60% of all computer chips.

所以它的重要性不言而喻。

So it's a very important company.

当我们看到这家公司的业务动态时，它实际上是全球人工智能需求的领先指标。

And when we see things with its business, it's really a leading indicator of global AI demand.

所以我今天特别想提一下台积电，因为最近几周人工智能股票已经回调了。

And so I did wanna highlight TSMC today because AI stocks have pulled back in recent weeks.

我觉得有些投资者在说：别忘了，增长趋势可能已经见顶了。

I think some investors are saying, listen, the trends have peaked.

下行趋势就要来了。

The downtrend is coming.

但这家公司刚公布了月度数据，直接浇灭了这些担忧的情绪。

But this company just reported monthly numbers, and it throws cold water on the fear narrative.

蕾切尔，你给我们梳理一下，有哪些关键信息是我们必须了解的。

Rachel, walk us through some of the important things we need to know.

是的。

Yeah.

你可以看股价走势来观察趋势，但真正能揭示幕后情况的，还是这些数字。

I mean, you can look at trends in terms of looking at how share prices are performing, but the numbers are what really tell you what's happening behind the curtain, so to speak.

如果要这么说的话，台积电简直就是整个AI热潮的整个生产线。

And and TSMC is, if you wanna think of it this way, essentially, the whole factory floor for the entire AI boom.

所以他们每月的销售报告，尤其是上半年的数据，对市场来说是非常重要的现实检验。

And that's why their monthly sales report, their first half sales reports are really important reality checks for the market.

他们并没有看到任何放缓的迹象。

They are not seeing a slowdown.

台积电刚刚公布，六月的营收同比飙升了近68%。

TSMC just announced that June revenue jumped nearly 68% compared to last year.

那这为什么这么关键呢？

And why is that so important?

通常六月的销售额会下滑，因为夏季是传统的淡季。

Well, June sales usually dip because of normal summer seasonality.

但今年，他们的销售额反而比五月还高，这说明需求不只是稳定。

But this year, they actually rose from May, and it shows that demand isn't just steady.

而是在加速增长。

It's actively accelerating.

这完全反驳了那种认为AI建设正在放缓的说法。

It very much pushes back against the narrative that the AI build out is losing steam.

我觉得这一点对投资者来说特别重要，一定要留意。

And I think that's something that's really, really important for investors to pay attention to.

没错。

For sure.

这家公司会定期提供每月的更新，让我们清楚地看到实际情况。

And this is one of those companies that does give us kind of these periodic monthly updates on what's happening.

你看四月份，同比增长18%。

And you look in April, 18% year over year growth.

五月份涨到30%，现在又看到你刚提到的68%增长。

May, 30% growth, and now that 68% growth that you just highlighted.

很明显，需求正在加速上升。

So clearly, an acceleration trend.

不过我想稍微放宽视角，你能不能给我们梳理一下，这背后到底是什么情况？

But I'm gonna zoom out just a little bit and ask you just to walk us through what does that look like?

今年上半年的整体情况是怎样的？下半年我们又能期待什么？

What's the context here now for the first half of the year, and what can we expect maybe for the back half?

2026年上半年，台积电的总收入达到了2.4万亿新台币。

So for the first half of twenty twenty six, TSMC's total revenue reached 2,400,000,000,000 new Taiwan dollars.

换算成美元，大约是750亿美元。

In USD, that's about $75,000,000,000.

这个数字比2025年同期增长了36%。

That was up 36% compared to the same period in 2025.

我记得你提到过六月份的营收同比飙升了68%。

You know, I noted that 68% year over year increase in June revenue.

公司还公布，环比增长了6%，也就是比上个月有所提升。

The company also reported it was a 6% sequential increase, so up from the prior month.

台积电为各种应用制造半导体，从智能手机到高性能人工智能计算系统都在其中。

So TSMC, you know, they manufacture semiconductors for a wide range of applications, spanning smartphones to high performance AI computing systems.

他们的主要客户都是美国科技巨头，比如英伟达、苹果和超威半导体。

Their key clients are all the big US tech leaders, including the likes of NVIDIA and Apple and and advanced micro devices.

TSMC在2026年仅靠AI芯片的收入就有望突破四百亿美元。

So TSMC is on track to generate over $40,000,000,000 just from AI chip revenue in 2026.

这大约占了公司总收入的四分之一。

That's about 25% of its total revenue overall.

事实上，微软、谷歌和Meta这些公司都已锁定巨额资本支出预算。

And the reality is that the companies from Microsoft, Alphabet, to META are locked into massive capital expenditure budgets.

他们只能排队等着，因为TSMC的先进生产线已经排得满满当当。

They're essentially waiting in line because TSMC's advanced manufacturing lines are booked solid.

TSMC将在本周四公布完整的财报。

Now, TSMC reports their full earnings this Thursday.

市场重点关注的是他们的产能瓶颈，以及能否上调核心产品的价格。

A lot of the focus is gonna be on their capacity bottlenecks, whether they can raise prices for their core products.

但归根结底，当全球最关键科技产品的首要供应商展现出这样的增长势头时，说明硬件周期还有很大的上升空间。

But essentially, when the primary supplier of the world's most critical tech shows this kind of momentum, it would indicate that the hardware cycle still has a lot of runway left.

没错。

For sure.

而且要说清楚，这不光是台积电的事。

And to be clear, it is not just Taiwan Semiconductor.

我还想提一下Meta平台的最新动态。

I also wanna highlight some news here from Meta Platforms.

我知道这公司大家都知道，但我觉得接下来这点特别关键。

And again, I realize that it is not a hidden company, but I think that we're gonna hit here just a moment.

如果你继续听下去，我们会讲到一些更深层的趋势。

If you hang with us, there's some underlying trends that we wanna get to.

但Meta平台刚发布了新消息，直接给‘AI热潮见顶’的说法泼了盆冷水。

But Meta Platforms making another announcement that just kind of throws cold water on the AI trend is peaking narrative.

你看他们在路易斯安那州的Hyperion数据中心。

You look at its Hyperion data center in Louisiana.

这是公司正在建设的一个非常重要的数据中心。

This is a very important data center for the company that is currently being built out.

这个项目最初在2024年底宣布，投资高达100亿美元。

Originally, a $10,000,000,000 facility announced late twenty twenty four.

但去年底，这个数字已经提升到了270亿美元，而今天公司又宣布，马特，这个项目还要进一步扩大。

Then late last year, upping that to 27,000,000,000, but the company coming out today, and it is increasing this project yet again, Matt.

是的。

Yeah.

这里头的信息量可不小。

So there's a lot to unpack here.

Meta今天确实宣布了，你说得对，Hyperion项目在已经两次大幅增资之后，规模还在继续扩大。

So META announced today, you're right, the the Hyperion project, it's getting even bigger after two big increases that already happened.

就在去年成本估算涨到270亿美元之后，公司又额外购入了1400英亩的周边土地。

Even after that jump to $27,000,000,000 in estimated costs last year, the company bought an additional 1,400 acres of adjacent land.

其实我们早就有预感会这样。

So we kind of saw this coming.

现在我们预计，仅这一处设施的直接投资就至少将达到500亿美元，原本规划是2吉瓦，现在要提升到5吉瓦，占地面积也超过3200英亩。

So now we're expecting at least $50,000,000,000 in direct investment, yes, to one facility in a site that's now expected to be a five gigawatt project originally scheduled for two, and that's more than 3,200 acres in size.

打个比方，这差不多是纽约中央公园面积的四倍。

Just for context, that's roughly four times the size of Central Park in New York.

不仅如此，据彭博社报道，这个项目的总投资，包括配套的电力基础设施，最终可能超过两千五百亿美元，所以细节真的非常关键。

So not only that, but reports have indicated, this is from Bloomberg, that the total expected investment for this project, including things like the power infrastructure that has to go with it, could eventually be more than $250,000,000,000 So the details really matter here.

整个项目的全面建设预计要到2036年才能完成。

So the full build out isn't expected to be completed until about 2036.

这可是十多年的时间。

So over a decade.

他们不可能明天就一次性从账面上掏出这笔钱。

So it's not like they're spending all of this money tomorrow from their balance sheet.

至于META，要解决电力问题，根本不可能把这么大的设施直接连到公共电网。

And META, to handle the power problem, then you can't just connect the facility this big to the grid.

电网会崩溃的。

It would collapse.

META正在为这个项目单独兴建十座天然气发电厂，还投入超过十亿美元用于当地基础设施建设，比如修路，确保供水和排污系统能承受如此巨大的负荷。

META's paying for 10 new natural gas plants, 10 to support this one site, and is contributing over a billion dollars toward local infrastructure like roads and to make sure the water and sewage infrastructure can handle this increased capacity.

我想问你一个问题，Matt，我们已经看到行业里出现了很多瓶颈，简单说就是，这些数据中心建设对某些关键物资的需求远远超过了供应，导致成本不断攀升。

And one of the things I want to ask here, Matt, is that we have seen so many, what we're calling bottlenecks in the industry, and that is really essentially, there's so much demand for certain things in these data center build outs that the demand is far outpacing supply that is boosting the cost of things.

我觉得这一点在内存领域特别明显。

I think we've seen this in memory in particular.

某些东西的成本在上涨，主要是因为每个零部件的价格都在上升。

The cost of certain things are going up because the price per component is going up.

所以并不是项目本身变大了，而是项目变大了，还是所有东西都变得更贵了？

So it's not necessarily that the project is getting bigger, But is this a issue of the project is getting bigger, or everything's just getting more expensive?

其实是两者都有。

Well, it's both.

不只是项目范围变大了。

It's not just a bigger scope.

建造数据中心的成本正在飙升，这正好引出我们接下来要讨论的内容。

The cost of building data centers is soaring, and this is kind of a a good tee up for our next section.

原本预计一个两吉瓦的设施总投资是100亿美元，也就是每吉瓦大约50亿美元，简单算一下就是这么回事。

The original $10,000,000,000 estimate for a two gigawatt facility, it was going be a build cost of about $5,000,000,000 per gigawatt, just dividing one by the other.

现在五个吉瓦的项目要花500亿美元，每吉瓦的成本已经翻倍到100亿美元了。

So now at $50,000,000,000 for five gigawatts, the cost per gigawatt has doubled to 10,000,000,000.

数据中心的电力基础设施、所需的专用冷却系统，以及其他建设成本，还有内部芯片的价格，都随着需求激增而上涨。

The power infrastructure for data centers, the specialized cooling they need, the other costs of building a data center, the chips that go inside have risen along with the massive demand.

不过值得注意的是，你之前提到的去年270亿美元这个数字，其实已经考虑了这些因素，因为它还是基于最初2吉瓦的预估。

So it's worth noting, however, that last year's $27,000,000,000 figure that you mentioned earlier, kind of took this into consideration cause that was still based on the original two gigawatt projection.

所以这一轮的每吉瓦成本实际上已经比之前下降了。

So the per gigawatt costs have actually come down since then for this round.

也许他们预期，随着数据中心规模扩大，效率也会相应提升。

It could be maybe they're expecting more efficiencies to come with the scale of a larger data center.

也可能他们最初的估算不够准确，毕竟那是2024年做的，那时候AI还处于上一代水平。

Maybe their original estimates just weren't that great because they were based in 2024 when AI was like back at a previous generation.

所以成本这个问题涉及的因素真的很多。

So there's a lot of moving parts here when it comes to the cost.

我们之前聊过台积电。

So we've talked about Taiwan Semiconductor.

也聊过元宇宙平台公司。

We've talked about Meta Platforms.

这两家公司是全球最重要、规模最大的企业之一。

These are two of the biggest, most important companies in the world.

不过在广告之后，我们要聊点不为人知的。

But after the break, we're gonna go under the radar.

您正在收听《富达隐藏宝石》投资节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

2026年，我一直想改善自己的健康状况，但有件事我发现了。

In 2026, I've been trying to improve my health, but here's the thing I found.

如果你不关注体检数据，那简直就是在盲目行事。

If you're not tracking your blood work, you're basically flying blind.

所以我特别高兴能和Rhythm合作。

That's why I'm excited to partner with Rhythm.

Rhythm是目前全球最简便的血液检测服务，能帮你了解身体内部的变化。

Rhythm is the world's easiest blood test to help you learn what's happening inside your body.

在家两分钟就能完成，不用扎针，只需贴一个设计简洁、无痛的采集装置在手臂上。

Takes about two minutes at home, no needles, just a sleek and painless collection device that sticks on your arm.

血液样本采集好之后，你只需要把它放进Rhythm提供的包装里，他们还会安排专人上门取件，就在你家门口。

Once your blood is collected, you put the sample in the package that Rhythm provides, and they will even arrange to have it picked up from your front door.

我一个月前做了第一次检测。

I did my first test about a month ago.

Rhythm的检测套装寄到家里了。

The Rhythm Kit came in the mail.

我花两分钟就把血抽好了。

I drew my blood in about two minutes.

再简单不过了。

Couldn't be easier.

大概两天后结果就出来了，他们的在线平台解释得清清楚楚，一看就懂。

The results were live in about two days, and their portal makes it easy to understand what's going on.

他们还配了AI健康助手，帮你解读结果并给出具体建议。

They've even got an AI health coach to help explain your results and recommend actions.

拿到检测报告后，我调整了自己的饮食方式。

Since I got my labs, I've changed the way I've eaten.

体重开始往下掉了，而且很容易就能判断GLP-1这类药是不是适合你。

Pounds are starting to come off, and it's easy to determine if something like a GLP one is right for you.

我平时可不爱往医院跑。

I'm not one to run to the doctor.

我能在家做完检测、快速拿到结果，这才是让我上瘾的原因，第二套试剂盒都已经寄在路上了。

So the fact that I can do this at home and get fast results is what has me hooked, and my second kit is already on the way.

Rhythm每月只要79美元，还不到传统检测费用的零头，直接送货上门，随时可退。

Rhythm is only $79 per month, a fraction of traditional lab testing, ships right to your door, you can cancel anytime.

现在，Rhythm为我们的听众提供首月85折优惠，还有免运费，去 rhythm.com/fool 就行。

Right now, Rhythm is offering our listeners 15% off for your first month and free shipping at rhythm.com/fool.

记得是 Rhythm，访问 rhythmhealth.com/fool，首月85折，包邮到家。

That's Rhythm with 1hrythmhealth.com/fool for 15% off your first month and free shipping.

别再瞎猜了。

Stop guessing.

开始检测吧，rhythmhealth.com/fool。

Start testing rhythmhealth.com/fool.

欢迎回来

Welcome back

继续收听富达基金隐藏宝藏投资节目。

to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我们刚刚分析了一些趋势。

We've just highlighted some trends here.

Meta正在大幅增加数据中心的投入。

META expanding the data center expenses that it is putting out.

我们看到台积电的增长速度正在加快。

We're looking at Taiwan Semi showing the accelerating growth rate.

鉴于这些情况，我们想重点介绍一些不为人知的公司。

In light of that, in light of these things, we wanna highlight some hidden companies.

这并不是一份股票购买建议清单，因为我们在节目中不提供个性化投资建议。

And so this isn't necessarily a list of stocks to buy, because we don't give personalized investing advice on this show.

但我们是富达基金隐藏宝藏投资节目，所以自然要挖掘那些被忽视的机会。

But we are Motley Fool hidden gems investing, so we do wanna go under the radar.

所以我请了蕾切尔和马特，推荐一家很多投资者还不知道、但其实值得关注的公司。

So I've asked Rachel and Matt to give us a company that a lot of investors don't know about, but that they should.

我还让他们解释一下，这家公司是怎么赚钱的，以及结合我们刚才提到的趋势，有哪些潜在机会。

I've asked them to explain what they do to make money and what could go right in light of the trends that we just looked at.

马特，这次你先来。

Matt, you're up first this time.

有没有哪家公司，大多数人压根没听过，但其实特别值得了解？

What is a company that many people don't know about, but they should?

如果你经常听这个播客，应该听过我多次提到，投资人工智能的‘工具和铲子’是我最看好的方式。

If you listen to the podcast frequently, you've probably heard me talk about the AI picks and shovels as my favorite way to play the trend.

所以我今天想推荐的是Comfort Systems这家公司。

So one that I'd like to bring to the table is Comfort Systems.

它的股票代码是FIX，FIX。

The ticker symbol is FIX, FIX.

它是美国最大的暖通空调、水管和电气承包商之一，但不是给你家装修的那种。

It's one of the largest heating, ventilation, air conditioning, plumbing, electrical contractors in The United States, and not for like your house.

他们主要做商业楼宇的项目。

They specialize in commercial properties.

过去一直为大型医院、制造工厂以及其他大规模商业设施提供服务。

They've historically served healthcare systems like large hospitals, manufacturing plants, and other really large scale commercial property types.

近几年，公司聪明地、也是迫于形势，转向了人工智能数据中心领域。

Over the past few years, the company has smartly and through necessity pivoted to AI data centers.

说这带来了巨大回报，都还是轻描淡写。

And to say it would, has paid off would be a real understatement here.

上个季度，他们的营收同比暴涨了56%，但功劳可不是来自医院。

I mean, their revenue grew 56% year over year in the most recent quarter, and it wasn't hospitals that did it.

每股收益翻了一倍多。

Their earnings per share more than doubled.

未完成订单增长了80%。

The backlog grew by 80%.

数据中心需要大量且精准的制冷和电力工程，而且随着技术越来越先进，这一点变得越来越关键。

Data centers need enormous amounts of cooling and precise cooling and electrical work, and that's really becoming true the more sophisticated that data centers come.

现在新建的数据中心普遍采用液冷技术。

Data centers now being built are generally liquid cooled.

以前都是用风冷，主要是因为芯片发热量太大，技术还不够成熟。

They used to be air cooled just because of how sophisticated and how much heat the chips inside of them put off.

舒适系统公司是少数几家能真正应对这类项目规模和复杂度的公司之一。

Comfort Systems, they're one of the few companies that can really handle the scale and the scope of these projects.

具体到今天的新闻，台积电的资本支出现在已上调至原区间上限。

So related to today's stories in particular, Taiwan Semi's CapEx is now guiding for the high end of its previous range.

这对像舒适系统这样从这类建设中获利的公司来说是个积极信号。

That's a positive item for companies like Comfort Systems that profits on this build out.

公司用‘已售罄’来形容现状，新订单的交期普遍超过一年。

The company's sold out language they're using and the discussion of lead times of well over a year on new orders.

这表明AI带来的需求比我们之前预想的更持久。

It indicates a more durable demand curve than we previously expected with AI.

像Meta这样的大规模扩建项目，正是舒适系统这类公司擅长处理、而大多数公司无法应对的复杂情况。

In projects like META's massive build out, it's exactly the kind of complex situation that companies like Comfort Systems can handle that most others can't.

是的。

Yeah.

在我看来，Comfort Systems USA 是一家很棒的公司。

Comfort Systems USA is a great company in my opinion.

我真希望几年前就发现这家公司。

I wish I had found it several years ago.

好了，Rachel，该你了。

All right, Rachel, it's your turn.

我问你同样的问题。

I'm going ask you the same question.

你认为哪家公司值得向我们的听众推荐？

What is a company that you wanna highlight here for our listeners?

它做的是什么业务？

What does it do?

未来几年有哪些积极的可能？

And what could go right in the coming years?

我们刚才在聊台积电。

We were talking about TSMC.

我们关注这家公司。

We look at that company.

他们生产硅芯片。

They make the the silicon chips.

我们再看看Meta。

We look at META.

他们买这些芯片来驱动自己的AI模型。

They buy those chips to power their AI models.

你不可能直接把一块松散的芯片插到Meta数据中心的插座上。

You can't just plug a loose chip into a wall outlet at a Meta data center.

这时候，我要提到的这家公司就派上用场了，它叫Celestica，股票代码CLS。

That is where the company I'm bringing to the table interests the picture, and that is Celestica, ticker c l s.

Celestica是一家强大的电子制造服务公司，但在我看来，它也是AI基础设施的架构师之一。

So Celestica is an electronics manufacturing services powerhouse, but they're also very much one of the companies that I would count as an architect for AI infrastructure.

Celestica 会把英伟达和 AMD 这类公司生产的先进芯片，安装在定制的电路板上，组装成大型液冷 AI 服务器机架。

So Celestica essentially takes the advanced chips from companies like NVIDIA and AMD, mounts them onto custom circuit boards, and assembles them into these massive liquid cooled AI server racks.

他们还制造高速网络交换机，让成千上万颗芯片能够互相通信。

So they also build the high speed networking switches that allow tens of thousands of these chips to actually talk to each other.

他们正好处在供应链的中间位置。

They essentially sit in the middle of the supply chain.

他们把原始的电子元件收过来，

So they take the raw tech components.

然后加工成超大规模云服务商真正需要的高性能计算系统。

They turn them into the really functional supercomputers and systems that hyper scalers need.

如果 TSMC 那高达 68% 的营收增长是个信号，那接下来市场上将迎来一波前所未有的芯片浪潮。

And if TSMC's massive 68% revenue spike is to be our guide, a tidal wave of new silicon is about to hit the market.

像 Meta 这样的科技巨头，正在逐步放弃现成的通用硬件。

And the big tech companies like META are moving away from that off the shelf hardware.

他们更想要定制设计的专属 AI 服务器机架，好降低功耗、提升效率。

They want the custom designed proprietary AI server racks to help them save on power and maximize efficiency.

Celestica 是全球为数不多具备工程能力、能大规模制造这种复杂定制系统的公司之一。

Celestica is one of the very few companies globally with engineering expertise to build these complex bespoke systems at scale.

由于他们与主要芯片设计公司紧密合作，比如博通，Celestica 很早就被锁定在这些长达数年的数据中心建设项目里。

And because they work hand in hand with the major chip designers, think of companies Broadcom, Celestica gets locked into these multiyear data center build outs early.

随着大型科技公司持续增加资本支出，建设下一代 AI 集群，Celestica 只需不断组装这些数字积木，就能持续为 AI 软件竞赛提供资金支持。

So as we continue to see these expansions of CapEx from the big tech companies, the build out of next gen AI clusters, Celestica just needs to keep assembling the digital bricks that it continues to use to fund the AI software race.

如果这个硬件周期真的有好几年的持续时间——我个人确信它有——那 Celestica 完全有能力抓住其中相当可观的一块增长红利。

And if this hardware cycle has a multi year runway, which I personally believe that it does, I think Celestica is very well positioned to capture a nice chunk of that growth.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这家公司之所以一直不太被关注，是因为它的业务模式确实不容易看懂，但它对我们刚才讨论的整个底层基础设施来说至关重要。

I think one of the reasons that this company does continue to sit beneath the radar is it's not exactly an easy business to understand, but certainly very important to the whole underlying infrastructure that we're talking about.

谢谢你们两位提到这些点。

So thank you both for highlighting these.

我很好奇，Matt，你有持有这两家公司中的任何一家吗？

I'm curious, Matt, do you own either of these?

我目前还没买这两家公司，但舒适系统公司在我关注名单上排得很靠前。

I don't own either of them yet, but Comfort Systems is very high up on my watch list.

你呢，蕾切尔？

How about you, Rachel?

这两家公司现在也在我的关注名单上。

These are also both on my watch list right now.

好的。

Alright.

我们也希望听众们能把这两家公司加入自己的关注列表。

Well, we hope they go on the listener's watch list as well.

我们先休息一下。

We're gonna head to the break.

广告之后，我们会回看听众来信。

After the break, we're gonna dip into the mailbag.

您正在收听《富达隐藏宝藏》投资节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

反社会型人格的人根本不太在乎别人的福祉。

People who are psychopathic just don't intrinsically value other people's welfare that much.

每次互动，他们想的都是：我能从中得到什么？

Every interaction is about, like, what can I get?

我能从这个人身上捞到什么？

What can I get out of this person?

我能从这个情况里占到什么便宜？

What can I get out of this situation?

所以他们才会那么多操纵、撒谎和利用，因为对他们来说，大多数人本质上只是达成目标的工具。

So that's why there's so much manipulating and lying and exploitation is it's because people, most of the time, are just sort of tools to get whatever their ultimate goal is.

我们每个人身边都认识这样有反社会倾向的人。

All of us know somebody with psychopathy.

想了解谁才是真正造成最大伤害的人？请听第1293期节目。

To hear the science behind who actually does the most harm, check out episode twelve ninety three.

听完之后，你可能会重新看待身边的所有人。

It might change how you see everyone around you.

每周二我们都会在《MacBreak Weekly》里聊苹果的动态。

Every Tuesday, we cover Apple on MacBreak weekly.

大家好。

Hi.

我是来自TWIT播客网络的里奥·拉波特，今天和杰森·斯内尔、安迪·阿纳科、格伦以及弗莱什曼一起，聊聊本周最新的苹果新闻。

This is Leo Laporte from the TWIP Podcast Network inviting you to join me, Jason Snell, Andy Anako, Glenn and Fleishman as we talk about the latest Apple news this week.

苹果产品的价格让人直呼吃不消。

Apple sticker shock is getting everybody crazy.

那款新折叠手机到底要卖多少钱？

How much will that new folding phone cost?

今年可能会推出一款令人意外的新款笔记本电脑，还有一款三十年前的共享软件，到现在依然很活跃。

A surprising new model of the laptop, the MacBook coming up this year perhaps, and a thirty year old shareware product that's still going strong.

这就是本周的《MacBreak Weekly》，每周二准时更新。

That's MacBreak weekly this week and every Tuesday.

你可以在 twit.tv/mbw 或者任何你听播客的平台找到我们。

You'll find it at twit.tv/mbw and wherever you get your podcasts.

欢迎回到《富达秘密宝藏》投资节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

先说一句，我们希望你能参与到讨论中来。

One quick note, we wanna make you a part of the conversation.

我之前说过，我们不能提供个人化的投资建议，因为我们不是持证的财务顾问，但很乐意回答你们关于股票或投资的一般性问题。

As I said earlier, we can't give personalized investing advice because we're not certified financial assistance or anything like that, but we do like to answer questions that you have for us about stocks or general investing questions.

你们可以把问题发到 podcast@fool.com。

So you can send those in at podcast@fool.com.

我们希望你们的问题保持那份幽默和有趣。

We'd love for you to keep them foolish.

最好简短一点，方便我们在节目中念出来，不过我们真的很喜欢收这些提问。

We'd love for you to keep them short enough to read on air, but we do enjoy taking those questions.

再次提醒，问题请发到 podcast@fool.com。

So get those into us again at podcast@fool.com.

我们这里有个很棒的问题，现在就念给大家听。

And we have a great question teed up for you here, and I'll just read it.

他说：嗨，各位福尔人。

It says, hi, Fools.

我略过一些开场白，但他提到，自己正考虑重返研究生院，卖掉投资组合的三分之一就能付清全部学费。

I'm gonna skip a little bit of the intro, but he says, I'm considering going back to grad school and could cover all the tuition by selling about a third of my portfolio.

我一直在纠结，是该这么做，还是该申请学生贷款。

I've been debating this versus taking out student loans.

所以，来自萨克拉门托的本问的是：我到底该怎么做？

And so, essentially, the question from Ben in Sacramento is, what should I do here?

是该申请贷款，还是该卖掉三分之一的投资组合？

Should I take out a loan, or should I sell a third of my portfolio?

我要再强调一遍，我们没法直接给本提建议，因为我们不了解他的全部财务状况，但我们可以一起探讨这个问题。

Now I will reiterate, we can't speak to Ben directly because we don't know his full financial situation, but we are gonna just kind of explore this question.

当你生活中有笔开销，而你的投资正好能覆盖它时，该怎么选择？

When I have a need in my life, and I I would be able to cover it with an investment, what should I do?

我先讲个亲身经历吧。

And I'll just throw out an anecdote here.

这其实是最近我才想到的一个想法。

This was something that I came up with recently in my life.

去年我突然需要一辆车。

Last year, I had a sudden need for a vehicle.

我有个投资，回报大概有十倍，刚好能Cover车钱，所以我干脆卖了它，来解决生活中的实际需求。

I had a investment that was roughly a 10 x that could cover the cost, and so I did sell that investment to fund a real need in my life.

所以我能理解这个问题，不过我还是把它抛给Matt吧，他可能也遇到过类似的情况。

So I can relate to this question, but I'm gonna throw it here to Matt, who probably has faced similar things in his life.

Matt，你对Ben的这个问题怎么看？

Matt, what do you think about this question from Ben?

真是个好问题。

What a great question.

对我而言，下次遇到这种情况，大概就是孩子上大学需要钱的时候。

And for me, it's gonna be the next time I see this happening is when my kids go to college and need some money.

这里面有很多值得细说的地方。

There's a lot to unpack here.

首先，你说得对，投资是为了实现某个目标的手段。

So for starters, you're exactly right that investing is a means to an end.

它不是一种没有终点的纯粹行为。

It's not just that something that has no end point.

你存钱是为了应对具体的需求。

You're saving for something.

为了支付计划内的生活开支而卖出股票，完全合理，尤其是这样能帮你避免负债的时候。

Paying for planned life expenses is a completely valid reason to sell stocks, especially if it keeps you out of debt.

从心理上讲，卖出大量股票确实不容易，特别是如果你多年来一直坚持买入并持有的理念。

It's also true that psychologically, it can be difficult to sell large volumes of stock, especially if you've spent years building that buy and hold mentality.

这里有个不错的思维方式，你可以参考一下。

So here's, here's kind of a good mental framing for this.

你的投资组合，其实代表了你一生中积累起来的购买力。

Your investment portfolio is a representation of the purchasing power that you've stored away over your lifetime.

如果你卖股票来支付研究生学费，而这个学位又能提升你的收入或工作稳定性，那你其实并不是在消耗积蓄。

By selling stocks to pay for grad school, assuming that you're getting a degree that will either boost your income or boost your job security, you're not exactly withdrawing or spending your money.

你其实是把资本从一种生产性资产——股票，转移到另一种资产上，也就是你自身的赚钱能力。

You're transferring that capital from one productive asset, stocks, to another, which is your own earnings power.

至于你打算拿的学位能带来多大的收入提升，这很可能才是两者中回报更高的选择。

And depending on the earnings power of degree you're thinking of getting, it could certainly be the better return option of the two.

不过，也确实存在一些负面影响。

There are some negatives though.

关于避免负债，我知道我说这话可能会挨骂，但避免负债并不像戴夫·拉姆齐说的那样非黑即白。

So avoiding debt, and I know I'm going to catch flack for saying this, avoiding debt isn't always as black and white as Dave Ramsey's going to have you believe.

举个例子，如果你卖出三分之一的股票组合，要交多少资本利得税？

As one example, what kind of capital gains tax bill would you be looking at by selling one third of your stock portfolio?

因为如果你一次性全卖了，这笔税负可能会相当可观。

Because if you do that all at once, it could certainly move the needle here.

你目前能申请到的学生贷款利率是多少？

What are the interest rates on the student loans available to you?

你考虑的是私人贷款吗？如果你信用很好，利率可能低至4%。

Are you talking about private loans that if you have really good credit, you can get for 4%?

你是说那些利率高达10%的贷款吗？

Are you talking about loans that you can get for 10%?

这些贷款也会因为你在市场中持续投资的预期回报而产生影响。

Those also move the needle based on your expected returns in the market by just staying invested.

到底要卖出投资组合中的哪一部分，这个问题很关键，也就是说，你打算卖掉哪些股票？

The question of, of which third of your portfolio is important one, meaning which individual stocks are you going to decide to sell?

又打算保留哪些？

Which are you going to decide to keep?

这确实是个重要问题。

Is an important one.

这也是最难解决的部分。

And that's the tougher piece of the puzzle to solve.

如果不了解你具体持有哪些资产，那就得另找时间深入聊了。

And without knowing your holdings, that's a whole another conversation for another episode.

对。

Yeah.

投资组合的哪三分之一影响最大？

Which third of the portfolio makes a big difference?

我该保留哪三分之二？

Which two thirds am I keeping?

好的。

Alright.

Rachel，该你了。

Rachel, your turn here.

你觉得本的问题怎么样？

What do you think about Ben's question?

我觉得Matt说得很有道理，但也要注意，我们并不清楚你的投资组合具体包含哪些资产。

I think Matt makes really good points, and it is important to note, you know, we don't know the composition of your portfolio or or what that looks like.

请记住这一点。

So bear that in mind.

感谢你的收听，我觉得你现在的感受其实非常正常。

We appreciate you listening, and I think what you're feeling is completely normal as well.

作为长期投资者，我们常常花多年时间训练自己，觉得卖出股票就是犯错。

You know, as long term investors, we often spend years training our brains to think that selling stocks is a mistake.

按那个按钮的时候，甚至会觉得违背了财富积累的规则。

It can even sort of feel like you're breaking the rules of of wealth building by pressing that button.

不过呢，我想从更全面的角度来看这个问题。

But, you know, I'm gonna kinda take a more holistic view of this.

我觉得有必要记住一点：投资组合。

I think it helps to remember an investment portfolio.

它不是博物馆里仅供观赏的展品。

You know, it's not a museum piece just to be looked at.

它更像一套工具箱，能帮你打造生活，实现更大的财务自由，让财富长期复利增长。

It is a it can be a tool belt that can help you build your life, to build and gain greater financial freedom, to compound your wealth over the years.

它还能给你灵活性，重新夺回自己的时间，转换职业方向。

And that can also give you the flexibility to buy back your time, to change your career path.

用这种方式配置投资组合，确实有实实在在的现实意义。

And there is a very real world usefulness to having a portfolio that is structured in that way.

把你投资组合里通过增值积累的一部分资金，转投到教育上，其实就是把这笔投资从 portfolio 里挪了出来。

Shifting some of the money that you have built and gained through appreciation in your portfolio into your education, it moves that investment from your portfolio.

没错。

Yes.

但这次你是把钱投给了自己，你的努力和能力，才真正决定结果。

But it directs it into yourself, you know, where your own hard work, your skills decide the outcome.

所以如果你真决定把这笔钱用在教育上，那你就是在押注一个由你自己掌控成败的资产。

So if you do decide to put that capital into your education, you're making a bet on an asset where you dictate the success.

如果是我的话，只要觉得这决定对路，我肯定会用自己积累的资源去拿那个学位。

So if it was me, you know, it would certainly be something that I would consider to use the tools you built to go get that degree if you feel that it's the right decision.

不管你怎么选，我们都祝你一切顺利，也非常感谢你收听这档节目。

Regardless of the choice you make, we we wish you the best of luck, and we thank you so much for listening to the show.

当然。

For sure.

看来本得好好想想，最后我想用约翰·迈克尔·蒙哥马利的一句话来收尾。

It sounds like there's a lot for Ben to think about, and I'll just leave with some wisdom from John Michael Montgomery.

人生就像跳舞。

Life's a dance.

边走边学。

You learn as you go.

今天节目就到这里了。

That's gonna be all the time we have for today's show.

节目中提到的股票，嘉宾可能持有，而富达也可能有明确的买入或卖出建议。

As always, people on the program may have interest in stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以别光听节目就决定买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有理财内容都遵循富达的编辑标准，广告商并未参与审核。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告属于赞助内容，仅作信息参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

想了解完整的广告披露，请查看节目说明。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢我们的制作人克里斯蒂·沃特沃斯，以及整个富达团队。

Thanks to our producer, Kristi Waterworth, the rest of The Motley Fool team.

对于马特、蕾切尔和我来说，非常感谢大家今天收听我们的节目，我们下次再见。

For Matt, Rachel, and myself, thank you so much for listening to our show today, and we will see you again next time.