苹果在新CEO上任之际推出新产品

苹果推出了新产品。

Apple has a new product.

它有没有新的公司方向？

Does it have a new corporate direction?

Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资现在开始。

Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.

欢迎收听 Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是主持人 Tyler Crowe，今天和我一起的是长期为 Fool 撰稿的 Quast 和 Matt Frankel。

I'm your host, Tyler Crowe, and today I'm joined by longtime Fool contributors, Quast and Matt Frankel.

各位，我们显然要聊聊苹果的新产品发布。

Guys, we're going to get into, obviously, we have the new product relaunch as Apple.

我们还会看看听众来信，但在开始之前，如果你已经听过这个故事，就打断我。

We're going to get into the mailbag, but before we get started, stop me if you've heard this story already.

一家公司发布了还算不错的业绩，但股价随后却大幅下跌。

A company posts results somewhere between okay and good, and the stock falls precipitously after.

这个季度这种情况挺常见的，我觉得，我们在聊财报的时候也一直在说，过去大概三十六个小时里，有几家公司公布业绩后都这样，但咱们就重点看两家吧。

It's been a pretty common theme this particular quarter, I feel like, as we've been talking through earnings results, and we could have done this for a few companies that have reported in the past, I don't know, thirty six hours or so, but let's focus on two.

一家是在线宠物零售商Chewy，另一家是传统的实体便利店CASY's General Store。

Online pet retailer, Chewy, and good old brick and mortar convenience store, CASY's General Store.

这两家公司在公布财报后，股价都从高点下跌了大约百分之十以上。

Both of them saw at their peaks about double digit declines after reporting earnings.

那咱们先说说Chewy吧。

So guys, we're going to start with Chewy first.

市场到底看到了什么让他们不满意的地方？

And what did the market see that they didn't like?

这和你对这份财报的看法一致吗？

And did it line up with your thoughts on the earnings report?

嗯，你看CASY's，再看Chewy，我觉得这两只股票下跌的原因不一样，虽然表面上的说法都差不多，就是业绩介于一般和不错之间。

Well, you look at CASY's, you look at Chewy's, and I think that these stocks are down for different reasons, even though the narrative is pretty much the same as somewhere between okay and good.

先从Chewy说起吧。

Starting with Chewy.

我是说，确实要看底线数字。

I mean, do look at the bottom line numbers.

问题不在这里。

That's not the problem here.

这些底线数字看起来相当不错。

These, these bottom line numbers look pretty good.

盈利能力、利润率对Chewy来说看起来还行，这方面真的没什么好担心的。

The profitability, the margins that looks okay for Chewy, nothing really to worry about in this, in this area.

特别是保持毛利率，这对像这样的低利润率市场来说非常关键，但Chewy，你知道，它的销售额同比有不错的增长，但你看季度数据。

It's maintaining that gross margin in particular, and that's really key for a low margin marketplace such as this, but Chewy, you know, it had decent sales growth on a year over year basis, but you look at the quarterly numbers.

所以与上个季度相比，Chewy的销售额确实出现了小幅回落，尤其是自动配送销售额。

So compared to last quarter, Chewy did experience a small pullback in its sales and in particular the auto ship sales.

所以很多客户都设置了定期接收Chewy的配送。

So a lot of its customers just have it set up where they're going to receive a shipment from Chewy on a schedule.

这些本应是忠诚的锁定会员，看到这些数字出现季度环比下滑有点令人担忧，因为宠物护理业务真的没有季节性。

Those are supposed to be kind of these locked in loyal members, seeing a slight quarterly or quarter over quarter dip in those numbers is somewhat concerning because there really isn't seasonality in the pet care business.

你的猫不管在哪个季度都得吃饭。

Your cat needs to eat food regardless of the quarter.

对吧？

Right?

所以看到Chewy的季度销售额小幅回落，确实有点让人担心。

So to see that small pullback in the Chewy sales on a quarterly basis is a little bit concerning.

是的。

Yeah.

而且，说到这个，我注意到一个数字，他们的每个活跃客户净销售额，这个季度上涨了1.9%。

And I mean, to that, the one number that stood out to me, their net sales per active customer, it was up 1.9% this quarter.

这比第一季度的4.6%增长率有所下降。

That's down from a growth rate of 4.6% in the first quarter.

不仅如此，1.9%还低于通胀率。

Not only that, 1.9%, that's lower than the rate of inflation.

所以按实际价值来看，可以说Chewy的销售额实际上是下降了。

So on a real basis, you can say that Chewy sales actually declined.

所以客户并没有花更多的钱。

So customers are not spending more.

这让我更担心宏观层面的问题。

And that's concerning to me more on a macro level.

我不知道你们怎么看。

I don't know about you guys.

我有两只狗。

I have two dogs.

有很多东西我可以削减，但不会停止给我的狗买零食和各种好东西，你知道，人们在这些东西上花钱。

There are a lot of things I would cut back on before I stopped buying treats and all kinds of goodies for my dogs that, you know, people spend money on that.

所以这个财报季我们反复看到的一个主题就是，折扣力度更大的环境。

So it's a kind of a recurring theme this earning season that we're seeing, you know, a more discount heavy environment.

我们在很多服装公司那里也看到了这种情况。

We've seen that with a lot of the apparel companies.

我们看到消费者在减少非必需品的支出。

We've seen consumers pulling back on discretionary spending.

当然，宠物得吃饭，但每隔几个月就给它们换新牵引绳，那确实是可花可不花的钱。

Now, obviously your pets have to eat, but things like getting them a new leash every few months is, is that's a discretionary expense.

我们看到，大家在这方面确实在缩减开支。

And we're seeing, you know, people pull back on that.

所以，那个数字是最让我担心的。

So that that's one of that's the number that really concerned me.

就像乔恩说的，这不是盈利问题。

It, you know, it's not profitability, as Jon said.

股价今年跌了很多，因为投资者在营收增长放缓的时候，不愿意为Chewy的超高利润率买单。

The stock's down big year to date because investors are not willing to pay for Chewy's exceptional margins at a time when top line growth is decelerating.

所以，Chewy的主题，也是很多其他公司常见的……

So the theme here and for Chewy, and this has been pretty common with a lot of...

我……

I...

很难说Chewy是可选消费品零售。

It's hard to say Chewy's discretionary retail.

就像你说的，人们会在宠物身上花钱。

Like you said, people spend money on their pets.

也许他们会从高端猫粮换成那种大包装的仓储式猫粮，算是稍微缩减一下开支吧，但这确实比在便利店买食品之类的消费更具可选择性。

Maybe they're going from the premium cat food down to the bulk warehouse cat food, I guess, would be the way of putting it to pull back on spending a little bit, but it is slightly more discretionary than say food convenience store purchases and things like that.

我们在凯西百货也看到了类似的情况。

And we saw something similar at CASY's General Store.

这里有什么共同点呢，至少从凯西百货的财报来看，我们看到了类似的业绩反应，我觉得这算是必需品消费，比如便利店、汽油、外卖披萨之类的，而相比之下……

What is the common thread here, at least in the earnings report for CASY's, that we saw a similar earnings reaction for what I would say is kind of like staple purchases in the form of like convenience stores, gas, you know, takeout pizzas and things like that for CASY's versus as as...

就像你说的，Chewy的业务带有这种轻微的可选消费属性。

To your point, this slight discretionary aspect of what Chewy does.

对。

Yeah.

而且我是说，凯西百货的数据，表面上的数字其实很有迷惑性。

And I mean, with with Casey's numbers, the headline numbers are really deceptive.

你不会意识到这两家公司的财报有多么相似。

You wouldn't realize how similar these companies earnings reports were.

从表面数据来看，凯西的收入同比增长了23%。

So on the headlines, I mean, Casey's revenue was up 23% year over year.

利润同比增长了28%。

Earnings were up 28% year over year.

这全靠燃油业务。

It was all fuel.

泰勒，你是能源方面的专家。

Tyler, you're an energy guy.

你知道燃油价格涨了多少。

You know how much fuel prices have soared.

你知道，看……

You know, peep...

这才是凯西业务中真正非可自由支配的部分。

That's the real nondiscretionary part of Casey's business.

不管怎样，人们都得给车加油。

People have to put gas in their cars no matter what.

所以燃油利润率同比大幅飙升。

So fuel margins exploded year over year.

这就是盈利超预期的主要来源。

That's where that earnings beat came from.

再看店内销售，同店销售额，也就是食品之类的，同比增长了3.2%。

When you look inside the stores, same store sales on the inside sales, that's like food and things like that, that was up by 3.2% year over year.

这比一个季度前4.3%的增长率有所放缓。

That was a deceleration from a 4.3% growth rate a quarter ago.

可以说这略高于通胀水平，但你知道，人们在非必需消费方面花得没那么多了，就像Chewy一样，也有一些非必需的部分。

You can make a case that that's a little bit ahead of inflation, but you know, people aren't spending as much on the discretionary side of the business and kind of like with Chewy, there's some discretionary components.

有非必需的燃油和某些便利商品，但还有很多我们……

There's the non discretionary fuel and certain convenience items, but there is a lot we...

我们去便利店时，我的孩子想要糖果。

When we stop at a convenience store, my kids want candy.

我们不必买那些。

We don't have to buy that.

但人们在这些方面的开支越来越节省，这正是让投资者对这两家公司感到担忧的地方。

But people are cutting back on those type of expenses more and more, and that's really what is worrying investors with both of these companies.

对此，我想补充一点，Chewy 目前的估值看起来还算合理，交易价格大约是预期收益的14倍。但凯西股价下跌的一个主要原因，马特，正如你提到的，是店内销售，也就是食品业务，这历来是利润的主要来源。

Well, to that, I would add that Chewy actually looks like a decent value here trading at roughly 14 times forward earnings, but a big reason that Casey's is down, Matt, as you mentioned, kind of more what has been the historic profit driver is the inside sales, the, the, the food business that it has.

但你看自2000年以来的股价，凯西的估值只有少数几次触及30倍市盈率，而且只是刚刚碰到30倍。

But you look at the stock since the year 2000 Casey's has only touched 30 times, earning a valuation of 30 times earnings, a handful of times, and that's just brushed up against that 30 times.

通常它的交易价格在20倍市盈率左右，甚至在2026年会更低。

Usually it trades around 20 times its earnings or even less in 2026.

在发布这份财报之前，它的交易价格已经超过40倍市盈率，甚至触及48倍市盈率，这大约是长期估值平均水平的两倍。

Has traded above 40 times earnings and has even touched 48 times earnings right before it released this earnings report that is roughly double its long term valuation average.

所以市场对凯西股票的期望非常高，非常高，非常高，然后传统上作为业务利润驱动力的部分却出现了疲软。

So a lot of expectations running high, high, high with CASY stock, and then to kind of have that softness in what is traditionally the profit driver of the business.

看到股价大幅下跌也就不足为奇了。

It's not surprising to see the stock get cut big time here.

我觉得我们在你的回答中已经稍微暗示了这一点，但我想让你们两位都来谈谈，在我们评估这些财报并考虑买哪些股票的时候。

I think we kind of hinted at it a little bit in your answer, but I want to put you both on the spot as we kind of assessing these earnings reports and thinking about, you know, stocks to buy and stuff like that.

如果现在让你在这两家公司之间选一个，就它们目前的状况来看，Chewy和Casey's General Store，你觉得哪个更值得买？

Given the choice between the two of these companies right now, where they are, Chewy's, Casey's General Store, which one do you see as the better buy right now?

那我先说吧，我觉得这两家里面，Chewy更值得买。

Well, I'll jump in first there and say that I think that Chewy is the the better buy here of the two.

我对Chewy真的挺看好的。

I am really optimistic, yeah, on Chewy.

我很喜欢他们打造的这个业务。

I really like what the business that it's built.

我相信他们的客户真的很喜欢这家公司，还有他们提供的那些个性化服务。

I do believe that its customers truly love the business and kind of that personalized care that they give it.

不过我得说，我对公司最近做的一些收购不是特别满意。

I will say I'm not a huge fan of some of the acquisitions that the company has made recently.

他们在宠物医疗保健领域做了一些收购。

It has made some acquisitions in more of the pet healthcare space.

我觉得这挺明智的。

And I think that's smart.

目前还没有像管理层期望的那样真正见效。

It hasn't quite paid off yet the way that management really hoped it would.

我希望这能成为业务的长期驱动力，但目前还没有实现。

I would hope that that would be a long term driver for the business, but it hasn't materialized yet.

最近它收购了一家马匹在线市场之类的公司。

More recently it acquired a horse online marketplace kind of a company.

在我看来，它真的为这个收购付了过高的价格。

And to me, it's really overpaying for that.

我对此有点担心。

And I'm a little bit concerned about that.

所以我不太喜欢这些收购，但我相信公司的长期可持续性。

So I'm not a fan of the acquisitions, but I do believe in the long term sustainability of the company.

你看，我本来也想说Chewy的，直到你提到马匹市场。

See, I was going to say Chewy as well until you said horse marketplace.

不过不，我还是得选Chewy。

But but no, I I I still have to I still have to go with Chewy.

你知道，这有点……

You know, it's a...

就像我说的，我是养宠物的人。

As I said, I'm a pet owner.

只有养宠物的人才能理解这种消费有多稳定。

Only pet owners understand how resilient this type of spending is.

人们把狗当成自己的孩子一样对待。

People treat their dogs like they're their babies.

即使是在买非必需品的时候，每次去宠物超市，我们总是忍不住要买三袋零食才能出来。

Even when it comes to discretionary purchases, we can't get out of there without buying three bags of treats every time we go to PET Smart.

跟CASY的内部销售相比，我觉得Chewy的业务更稳定。

Compared to the inside sales at CASY, think that Chewy has a more resilient business.

这确实值得关注。

Certainly something worth following.

我的意思是，我们一直在讨论的一个主题，我觉得在2026年，就是消费者有点被挤压了。

I mean, one of the things we have been talking about as a theme here, I think, in 2026 has been the consumer getting squeezed a little bit.

说到这两家公司的韧性，今年似乎比往年更受考验。

And to that point of the durability of both of these companies, it seems like it's getting tested a little bit more in this year than we have seen in years past.

休息之后，我们要聊聊苹果的新品发布，以及这可能预示着公司未来的一些变化。

Coming up after the break, we're gonna talk about Apple's new product launch and how that may be signaling some changes to the company going forward.

这个节目已经播出很久了，而且……

This show has been going on for a long time, and there...

我们以前的一位同事，比尔·巴克，有句名言：在低预期下表现好是件好事。

One of our former colleagues, Bill Barker, used to have this good saying as it's good to come in under low expectations.

作为新CEO上任，要接替一位非常出色的前任，确实是个很难跨越的门槛。

When you come in as a new CEO, you know, maybe coming in and trying to follow in the footsteps of somebody really good can be a hard hurdle to jump over.

就拿CEO约翰·特努斯来说，他接替蒂姆·库克在苹果的位置，看起来这个门槛确实很高。

And in the case of CEO John Ternus, it does look like the hurdle's pretty high because he's taking over for Tim Cook at APPL.

当一家公司迎来新CEO时，这位新高管通常会想办法做出一些引人注目的举动，给客户和股东留下深刻印象。

And when a company gets a new CEO, that new executive often tries to make some sort of early splash or make an impression on its customers and shareholders.

看来苹果新任CEO约翰·特努斯最引人注目的举措，可能是多年来iPhone最大的变革。

It appears that Apple's new CEO, John Ternus, his splashy move is probably the biggest change to the iPhone in years.

公司在最近的产品发布会上推出了iPhone Duo，同时还更新了Apple Watch，推出了新的Apple Watch Ultra，以及其他一些产品和像iPhone 18这样的常规更新。

The company debuted the iPhone Duo at its most recent product launch event, along with some updates to the Apple Watch, a new Apple Watch Ultra coming out, as well as some other products and some, you know, kind of the routine updates we've seen for like the iPhone 18 and things like that.

我不想说这是对业务的打击，因为这是一项非常盈利且一直在增长的业务。

Now, I don't want to say this is a knock on the business because this is an extremely profitable business that's been growing.

它长期以来一直保持着相当稳定的发展轨迹，而且还没有真正推出过能够改变公司发展轨迹的产品。

It's been on a trajectory that's pretty consistent for a long time and it hasn't really released a product that could alter the company's trajectory.

所以，各位，我想说...

So guys, I wanna hit...

在看了iPhone Duo的产品发布之后，我想跟你们聊聊这个。

Take this to you after kind of seeing the product release that we saw with iPhone Duo.

这款手机基础版的价格接近2000美元。

It's a nearly $2,000 phone at the base level.

这会不会是多年来我们没见过的那种，真正能改变苹果格局的产品呢？

Could this be like the product we haven't seen in years that could actually move the needle differently for Apple?

让我们来正确看待这个问题。

So let's put this into perspective here.

所以折叠手机并不是什么新鲜事。

So foldable phones are not new.

这不是什么新发明。

This is not a new invention.

它们在美国市场上其实已经存在七年了。

They've actually been on the market in The US for seven years now.

我在现实生活中见过一次。

I've seen one in the wild.

有一次，我的邻居有一部三星折叠手机。

One, my neighbor has a foldable Samsung phone.

到目前为止，对于所有推出折叠手机的公司来说，它们的销量几乎可以忽略不计。

They're essentially a rounding error for every company that offers them so far.

没有人能真正引起市场对这类产品的兴趣。

No one's been able to successfully get the market's interest in this.

其中很大一部分原因是最初的做工质量问题。

Now a lot of it was the initial build quality.

你知道，最初几代产品，它们很容易散架。

You know, the first few generations of them, they would fall apart.

我邻居的手机就因为类似的问题换过两次。

My my neighbor's phones had to be replaced twice, for for similar issues.

所以如果苹果能把这款产品做好，也许吧。

So if Apple figures that product out, maybe.

分析师普遍认为，Duo 将占苹果 2027 财年 iPhone 销量的 5% 到 10%，具体取决于分析师，而我们现在就处于这个财年。

Analysts generally think the Duo is gonna account for about five to 10%, depending on the analyst, of Apple's iPhone sales in the twenty twenty seven fiscal year, which is what we're in now.

所以即使是乐观的预测，也假设它只占收入的 10%。

So even the bull case is assuming about a 10% share of its revenue.

它不需要成为爆款就能让投资者满意。

It doesn't need to be a smash hit to make investors happy.

它不会成为苹果的又一个 iPhone 时刻，但这没关系。

It's not going to be their new iPhone moment, which that's fine.

但总的来说……

But the overall...

那个产品的发布，再加上另外两个，它……

The launch of that combined with the other two, it...

那是他们唯一宣布的东西。

That was the only thing they they announced.

他们发布了iPhone 18 Pro，还有那个Pro Plus，或者他们怎么叫的。

They announced the iPhone 18 Pro and I think the Pro Plus or whatever they called it.

就是……

It's...

目前还没有基础版Pro。

There's no base Pro yet.

所以苹果手机的平均售价可能会更高，我觉得这是最大的看点。

So the the average selling price of Apple phones could be higher, which I think is the big takeaway here.

你说得对。

And you're right.

他们好一阵子没有那种iPhone时刻了，所以这次也不会是。

They haven't had an iPhone moment in a while, so this is not going to be it.

我是说，打造一款漂亮的产品和真正能对公司产生重大影响的产品，这两者是有区别的。

I mean, there's a difference between building a beautiful product and being a product that is actually going to make a big difference in the company.

我得说，这款产品看起来确实相当漂亮。

I will say that this, this seems to be a quite beautiful product.

特别是铰链的工程设计，苹果似乎真的下了很大功夫，把它做成了手机上一个令人印象深刻的部分。

You look at the engineering on the hinge in particular, it seems like Apple really pulled out the stops to make that, an impressive part of the, the phone.

还有屏幕本身，没有折痕，这正是你期待的那种苹果式的细节处理。

Also the, the screen itself to not have a crease That is just kind of one of those Apple touches that you'd expect.

但回到马特的观点，回顾历史，iPhone发布会曾经非常令人兴奋。

But to Matt's point, I mean, going back in history, the iPhone events used to be very exciting.

我觉得那是因为每一代新产品在功能和特性上都是真正的进步。

And I think it's because each new generation was truly a new step forward in what it could do and some of the features that it had.

在产品早期，每一步都是大跨越，这很合理。

It just makes sense in an early product history that each new step is going to be a large step.

但后来这些进步就变得越来越小了。

Those steps keep getting smaller and smaller.

我觉得这就是为什么苹果发布会现在没什么看头了。

And I think that's why kind of the oxygen has been sucked out of the room for the Apple launch events.

说实话，我不觉得这能带来多大的改变，就像马特说的，这也许是个高端产品，有些人会用，而且确实漂亮，但要真正让投资者兴奋起来，我觉得还是得有个全新的产品类别才行。

Look, I, I don't see this being a big needle mover as Matt alluded to, this is a, maybe a high end product that some people will use and it is beautiful, but to, to really capture something that is going to be exciting for investors, you're really gonna have to have a new product category, I believe.

也许就是便携式AI设备，具体是什么样子还不清楚。

Maybe that's in a portable AI device, what exactly that looks like.

我觉得消费者自己都还不知道想要什么样的便携式AI设备。

I don't even think that the consumer knows yet what it wants in a portable AI device.

我觉得苹果也还没想好要给大家提供什么，但这可能是一个方向。

I don't think that Apple knows what it's going to offer people yet, but that would be one possible area.

我们以前也见过，想发明一个全新的产品类别，但最后并没有大获成功。

We've seen before, try to invent a new product category, and it's not really going to be a runaway success.

苹果Vision Pro确实很漂亮，也是个很有意思的产品，但消费者就是不太买账。

The Apple Vision Pro was truly beautiful and, and a very interesting product, but it's just not really something that consumers into.

所以这确实很难做到。

So it, it is, it's hard to do.

我觉得有点讽刺的是，约翰·特努斯本该是产品负责人。

One kind of, I guess, ironic observation I would make is that John Ternus is supposed to be the product guy.

昨天发布会最大的变化，其实可能是运营上的变化，就是他们推出的租赁计划。

The biggest change from yesterday's reveal could actually be an operational change, the leasing program they're using.

你可以每月花58美元租一个基础款的Duo。

You can get a Duo for $58 a month at the base level.

这比直接分24个月付款要便宜得多。

That's a lot cheaper than it would be to just finance it over twenty four months.

我有点偏见。

I'm a little bit biased.

我喜欢Klarna。

I like Klarna.

Klarna就是提供这个租赁计划的公司。

Klarna is the one powering the leasing program.

但这可能是最大的推动因素。

But this could this could be the biggest needle mover.

苹果这几年一直在纠结的一个问题是，大家换手机的周期变长了。

One of the things Apple's been kind of wrestling with in in recent years is is people are hanging on to their phones longer.

升级周期确实拉长了。

The upgrade cycle has has extended.

所以，租赁模式如果在租期结束时保证可以升级，或者提供升级选项，他们肯定会把旧手机收回去。

So a leasing model with a guaranteed upgrade at the end or upgrade availability at the end of your lease term guaranteed they'll just take the phone back.

这可能会缩短升级周期，让硬件收入更平稳，而且真的可能是昨天发布中最大的推动因素。

It could create shorter upgrade cycles, smoother hardware revenue, and really be the biggest needle mover out of yesterday's release.

至于他们什么时候会推出大家期待已久的约翰·特努斯的大产品，我不知道，泰勒，也许你比我更清楚。

When they're going to release the big product that everyone's hoping for from John Ternus, I don't know, Tyler, maybe you know better than I do.

嗯，只能说希望如此吧。

Well, I mean, one can only hope.

我觉得我们这些人都经历过那个时代，最初史蒂夫·乔布斯的产品发布会堪比伯克希尔·哈撒韦的年度股东大会，那时候大家特别期待接下来会有什么新东西。

Think all of us have been around long enough that the initial, like, Steve Jobs products launches were on par with, a Berkshire Hathaway annual, meeting type event where seeing what was coming next was huge.

而且我得说，苹果在这方面有点作茧自缚，因为每次我们都期待会有惊喜。

And I will say that Apple's a little bit of a victim of their own success here, where it's like we expected these great things to come every single time.

现在都到第十八、十九、二十版了，我也不太确定……

And now that we're on, I don't know, version eighteen, nineteen, 20, I don't...

其实有……

There was...

他们说是18，但中间有几个版本号其实不是连续的。

They say 18, but there was like a couple in there that weren't the same number.

所以我也记不清苹果现在到底升级到哪一代了，但你知道，经过十八、十九次之后，新鲜感就开始慢慢消退了。

So I can't remember precisely where we're at in the Apple upgrade cycle, but you know, after eighteen, nineteen times, the shine starts to wear off a little bit.

我觉得Mac Mini的发布不是巧合。

I don't think it's a coincidence that we have seen the release of the Mac Mini.

这可能是个人电脑产品线很长时间以来第一次大改版。

I think it's one of the first major overhauls of its personal computer segment in a long time.

还有这个iPhone Duo，以及特努斯接任苹果掌门人。

This iPhone Duo and the ascension of Ternus to the captain's chair at Apple.

我知道你说租赁模式可能更多是运营上的变化，但这次在硬件上的发力，我觉得比我们之前看到的都要大。

I know that you're saying this may be more of an operational change with the lease thing, but this has been a little bit more of a hardware push than I think we've seen in a while.

尽管蒂姆·库克为公司及其投资者做了很多好事，但公司在新产品方面的表现却是好坏参半。

For all the good Tim Cook did for the company and its investors, the company's track record was a mixed bag in terms of new products.

就像约翰，你说得对，Vision Pro 是个好看的产品，但商业上是否成功，还不好说。

Like, John, to your point, the Vision Pro was a nice looking product, but commercial success, jury's still out.

那你觉得……

So do you think...

这还早呢。

This is still early.

什么……

What...

特努斯几天前才刚接手。

Ternus just took over the reins a couple days ago.

但你觉得这是否表明苹果可能在战略上有所调整，更注重硬件改进和新硬件，试图回归乔布斯时代的设计理念，推出新产品，从那个角度让客户满意，而不仅仅是像蒂姆·库克那样在运营、供应链和物流方面做得不错，但缺乏突破性的创新？

But do you think this is a signal that Apple may strategically be changing a little bit, trying to focus more on hardware improvements, new hardware, trying to get back to a jobs in design, you know, new products, delight the customer from that perspective, that the company had versus the operational success and the, you know, supply chain logistics and do all the things that Tim Cook did was good around the edges, but not a lot of pushing the envelope

我觉得，刚才我们聊了这么多。

I mean, so much of what has just been talked about.

我是说，蒂姆·库克，这些产品不是一夜之间就能推出的。

I mean, Tim Cook was, these don't just launch overnight.

对吧？

Right?

我是说，很多这些都是在蒂姆·库克任期内发生的，可能特努斯也给了很多意见。所以我不会完全把昨天或之前的产品发布和蒂姆·库克分开来看。

I mean, lot of this happened under Tim Cook's watch, probably with Ternus giving a lot of input, So I wouldn't completely disassociate what we've seen here, yesterday with the, the product release or whenever it was.

我不会完全把蒂姆·库克和这些产品发布撇清关系。

I wouldn't completely disassociate Tim Cook from that.

但当然，苹果确实想推出下一个大热门产品。

But I mean, of course, Apple does want to launch whatever the next big thing is.

当然，它想在这个领域领先。

Of course, it wants to lead there.

当然，它想做出最漂亮的产品。

Of course, it wants to make the most beautiful one.

我确实认为苹果在投资Mac mini业务上是正确的，因为本地AI在未来几年会是一个大趋势。

I do think it's making the right move in investing in its Mac mini business because local AI is gonna be such a big trend in the upcoming years.

所以我觉得苹果在更新Mac mini上是对的。

And so I think Apple is right to refresh there.

但是，我想提醒特努斯，当他接任CEO的时候。

But look, I, I would just caution Ternus as he takes over the CEO role.

苹果还是有很多业务的，对吧？

I mean, Apple still does a lot of things, right?

即使我们在产品发布会上不再像以前那样感到惊艳，这仍然是一家非常强大的公司。

Even if we're not as wowed at the product launch events that we used to be, this is still a very powerful company.

它仍然是一家赚很多钱的公司，我会小心不要过多地改动你现有的优势。

It's still a company making a lot of money, and I would be careful not to tinker too much with what you have going for you.

如果你要改动，就做点新东西。

If you're going to tinker, make it a new thing.

对。

Yeah.

我很高兴约翰提到了物理AI。

I'm glad John brought up the the physical AI.

苹果的……

Apple's...

他们最大的问题之一，也是投资者最大的批评，就是他们在AI上落后了，确实如此。

One of their biggest problems and the biggest criticisms investors have had is that they're behind the curve on AI, which they are.

另一方面，他们不像一些同行那样每年花两千亿美元来建设这些东西。

And the other side of that is saying that they're not spending $200,000,000,000 a year like some of their counterparts are on on building this stuff out.

约翰·特努斯说，iPhone是AI的最佳个人设备。

John Ternus, he said that that the iPhone is the best personal device for AI.

他特别强调，苹果在隐私和安全方面的记录，以及更好的制造质量、更耐用的设备，才是关键的区别。

And he really emphasized that Apple's record of privacy security, you're really having better, you know, just better build quality, better, you know, longer lasting devices is the key differentiator.

所以我……

So I...

我很好奇他们会如何利用这一点。

I'm curious to see how they're gonna lean into that.

就像你说的，这次产品发布，几乎所有东西都是在蒂姆·库克还在任时开发的。

And like you said, this product launch, pretty much everything was developed while while Tim Cook was still the...

掌管苹果的时候。

In charge of of Apple.

所以等他们下一次大型产品发布会的时候再问我吧，看看公司的新方向是什么，因为那才是真正在特努斯领导下开发出来的产品。

So ask me again at their next big product launch, what what the new direction of the company is because that'll be the one where things were actually developed under Ternus' leadership.

如果咱们不能在他上任几天内就做出预测，那还有什么意思呢？

Well, what's the fun of doing that if we can't make predictions, you know, a few days into somebody's tenure?

对吧？

Right?

这就是我们做这行的意义所在。

That's the whole point of why we do this.

早早做出预测，看看以后会怎样发展。

Make predictions nice and early and see how they turn out later.

休息之后，我们会进入邮件环节。

Coming up after the break, we're gonna dip into the mailback.

大家好。

Hey, everyone.

简单提醒一下。

Just a quick reminder.

如果你想在Red On Air上提问，就发邮件到podcasts@fool.com。

If you wanna get a question at Red On Air, go ahead and email us at podcasts@fool.com.

是podcastwithans@fool.com。

That's podcastwithans@fool.com.

如果需要的话，我也把邮箱放在节目简介里了。

I've also left the email in the show description if you need it.

今天的问题来自Evan。

Today's question comes from Evan.

他的情况是，我持有一家微型无人机公司的小部分股份，这家公司正在积极收购小企业。

His thing is, I have a small stake in a micro cap drone company that is aggressively acquiring small businesses.

过去一年完成了26笔收购，这是它增长的主要驱动力之一。

It's done 26 in the past year, and it's one of its primary drivers for growth.

对于一家想扩大规模的微型公司，你怎么看待把收购作为增长策略？

For a microcap looking to scale business, how do you view acquisitions as a growth strategy?

什么时候会变成危险信号？

When does it become a red flag?

以收购为基础的增长有什么好处或风险？

And what are the benefits or risks associated with acquisition based growth?

这里有一些关于微型无人机公司之类的细节。

There's a little bit of detail here with like microcap drone companies, but stuff like that.

我想多关注一下Evan关于收购作为增长策略的问题，因为这种业务模式不太受关注，但往往要么做得非常好，要么做得非常差。

I want to focus a little bit more on Evan's question on the acquisition as a growth strategy, because it is a type of business that doesn't get as much attention, but often can be either done extremely well or done extremely poorly.

以收购为基础的增长结果非常两极化。

It's a very binary outcome when it comes to acquisition based growth.

所以基于这一点，你对Evan的问题有什么看法？收购作为增长策略是好事，还是你更倾向于看有机增长？

So based on that, what are your thoughts on what Evan's question is here is, is acquisition based growth a good thing or do you try to look more for the organic side?

我是说，收购策略是可以奏效的。

I mean, the acquisition strategy can work.

对我来说，关键问题是他们为什么要进行收购，一年26笔确实很多，以及他们是怎么支付这些收购的。

The key question for me is why they're making the acquisitions, you know, 26 in a year is a lot and how they're paying for it.

他们通常是用现金吗？

Are they usually, are they using cash?

他们是不是一直在稀释股东权益来做这件事？

Are they continually diluting shareholders to do it?

他们是不是在发行可转换债券，这其实是一种延迟的稀释？

Are they issuing convertible convertible notes, which is really a form of delayed dilution?

这些收购是不是为了在新行业里建立他们的知识产权和专利组合？

Are the acquisitions to build out their their intellectual property, their patent portfolio in a new industry?

你提到了无人机行业，在没有更多公司信息的情况下，这种情况尤其可能。

You mentioned the drone industry that could especially be the case here without knowing more about the company.

但说到红旗警示，我随便说几个，然后交给约翰。第一，注意股票数量的增长。

But red flags, just to rattle off a few and then I'll kick it over to John, is one, watch how the share count is growing.

如果他们做了这么多收购，收入翻了三倍，但股票数量增加了500%，那对股东来说就是净亏损。

If they're making all these acquisitions and tripling their revenue, but their share count's up by 500%, that's a net loss for shareholders.

除了这些收购，公司有没有其他有机增长？还是说所有增长都靠这些收购推动？

Is the, is any other growth coming organically or is, are these acquisitions fueling all of the company's growth?

你知道，他们的资产负债表或资产中有多少是商誉和无形资产？

You know, how much of their balance sheet or the assets are made up of goodwill and intangibles?

有没有关联方交易？这可是个大红旗，而且在微型市值公司里非常常见。

Are there related party transactions going on, which is a big red flag and is very common among the micro cap companies?

就像我说的，他们的融资结构是什么样的？

And like I said, what's the funding structure?

特别是早期微型市值公司发行的可转换债券，对我来说是个危险信号。

Convertible notes in particular with early stage micro caps are a red flag for me.

对。

Yeah.

我同意马特说的。

I'll agree with Matt and what he said.

这种通过收购来实现增长的战略可以是个好办法。

These, that growth by acquisition strategy can be a good move.

我就举个例子，史上最成功的收购之一就是迪士尼收购漫威。

And I would just point to one of the greatest ones of all time was Disney buying out Marvel.

我的意思是，漫威拥有顶级的知识产权，而迪士尼如果仔细想想的话，其实是一个发行平台。

I mean, is premier intellectual property, whereas Disney is a distribution platform if you think about it.

所以这是一个很好的例子，说明一加一等于三。

So that is a good example of one plus one equal equals three.

漫威没有发行和制作的能力，但它有知识产权。

Marvel doesn't have the distribution and the production means, but it does have intellectual property.

迪士尼可以收购这些知识产权，并凭借其在娱乐行业的实力，将其发展得远超漫威自己能做到的程度。

Disney can acquire that intellectual property and grow it far beyond what Marvel could on its own because of Disney's power in the entertainment business.

所以这是一个收购成功的典型案例。

So that was a good example of an acquisition gone right.

但我得说，这更多是例外，而不是常态。

But I would say that's more of the exception than the rule.

通过收购来实现增长的战略，有很多地方可能会出问题。

There are so many things that can go wrong with a growth by acquisition strategy.

现在我想指出，我确实……

Now I want to point out that I did.

我觉得我大概能猜到我们说的是哪只股票。

I think I probably could figure out the stock that we're talking about here.

就是候选范围已经缩小了。

Like it's kind of narrowed down the candidates.

我没有去查具体是哪家公司，也没有试图去猜我们说的是哪家公司，因为我们不提供个性化的投资建议。

I did not look up the specific company here and try to Scooby Doo what company we're talking about here because we don't give personalized investing advice.

我只想说，对于小公司，我同意马特的看法。

I would just say, I would agree with Matt when it comes to a smaller company.

这，这，这要看情况。

It, it, it depends.

收购其他公司可能有好的理由，但我更倾向于怀疑而不是乐观，特别是假设你是一家小型科技公司。

There can be good reasons to acquire other companies, but I would be suspicious more than bullish specifically because let's say that you're a small tech company.

那你到底能带来什么？

Really, what are you bringing to the table?

如果你不能带来创新，如果你是一家需要靠收购其他公司来发展的科技公司，那在我看来，这恰恰说明你的产品创新力不够。

If you're not bringing innovation to the table, if you're a tech company needing to acquire other businesses to me, that is a tell that your product is not as innovative as you need it to be.

所以你就得去外面收购创新。

Therefore you have to go out and acquire innovation elsewhere.

对我来说，这其实是个警示信号。

To me, that's just kind of a red flag.

或者，如果是一家面向消费者的小公司呢？

Or how about a small company that is really a consumer facing company?

在这种情况下，你几乎最需要的是打造品牌，而收购其他公司不一定能帮你建立品牌认知度，也就是在市场上的心智份额。

It really, in that case, you need to build your brand almost more than anything and acquiring other companies doesn't necessarily help you build that brand recognition, your, your mindshare in the market.

所以当你收购其他公司时，你很可能在支付过高的价格，因为你得付一点溢价。

So when you're acquiring other businesses, you're probably overpaying because you have to pay up a little bit of a premium.

有可能你无法把他们整合进你的业务。

There's a chance that you're not going to integrate them into your business.

有可能你无法看到你期望的协同效应。

Well, there's a chance that you're going to not see the synergies that you were hoping to see.

还可能有文化冲突的问题。

There could be culture issues.

就像马特提到的，可能会背上债务，然后要花好几年才能还清。

There could be saddling yourself with debt as Matt alluded to, and now you're taking years to kind of pay that down.

这等于是在牺牲未来的股东回报。

It's robbing from future shareholder returns.

可能出错的地方很多，能顺利的地方却很少。

There's a lot of things that can go wrong, very few things that can go right.

如果一家小市值公司去收购其他公司，我会很怀疑。

I'd be suspicious with a small cap company acquiring other companies.

所以马特和约翰对通过收购来增长的战略有点不太看好。

So Matt and John are a little bit more tepid to sour on the acquisition growth strategy.

那我就说说我的看法吧，因为确实有一小部分公司，专门靠不断收购，给投资者带来了非常惊人的回报。

So I'll just give my 2¢ because there's actually a small select group of companies that are these serial acquirers that have done spectacularly for investors.

我观察这类公司时发现，它们通常处在极度分散但可能已经成熟的行业。

And one of the things that I have found, at least when looking at these types of businesses, is finding those in extremely fragmented but probably mature industries.

比如保险经纪、汽车经销商这类行业，里面有成千上万的参与者，大多是区域性的或者夫妻店之类的。

Insurance brokers, car dealerships, companies like these where there's thousands of players in the industry, probably all like regionals or mom and pops and things like that.

而且你有一个这样的公司层面的保护伞，可以在这个框架下运作。

And you have this corporate, sort of umbrella that you can work from.

就像是在说，嘿，我们有资金成本优势。

It's like, Hey, we've got a cost of capital advantage.

我们可以把你们所有后台行政事务都内部化处理。

We can take all of your back of the house sort of administrative stuff in house.

这能带来很多公司层面的协同效应。

It's a lot of corporate synergies.

而且通常当你收购一家夫妻店时，比如他们退休的时候，你很可能以相当不错的价格买下来，然后这样操作。

And typically when you're buying a mom and pop, maybe when they're retiring, you can probably buy it at a pretty good price and do it that way.

所以那些采用这种策略的公司表现得非常好。

So companies that have that playbook have done extremely well.

我要举一个很好的例子，因为我刚才提到了保险经纪公司，那就是Arthur J Gallagher，简称AJG。

The one that I'll just throw out as a great example of this, because I did say insurance brokers, is Arthur J Gallagher, AJG.

像这样的公司，这确实是一个非常非常细分领域的工具，而且确实有一些公司能把它做好。

Companies like this, it it is a very, very niche tool, and there are companies out there that can do it well.

一个1.5亿美元的无人机公司能不能做到这一点，还有待观察，但确实有一些公司在这方面有很好的记录，长期来看，寻找这样的公司可能是好的投资。

Whether or not a $150,000,000 drone company can do it is yet to be seen, but there are companies that have very good track records for it, and seeking out those companies can be good investments over the long term.

我再补充一点，相对于我们刚才提到的那些危险信号，你也可以关注一些有助于判断的积极因素。

I'll throw in the counter to the red flags we're looking at, some of the things you can look for that can help out.

但今天的时间就到这里了。

But that's all the time that we have today.

和往常一样，节目中的人可能对他们谈论的股票有兴趣，而Motley Fool也可能有正式的推荐或反对意见。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以不要仅仅根据你听到的内容来买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容都遵循Motley Fool的编辑标准，并且未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告或赞助内容仅供参考。

Advertisements or sponsored content can provided for informational purposes only.

要查看我们的完整广告披露，请查看我们的节目说明。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢我们的制作人丹尼斯·戈林，以及The Motley Fool团队的其他成员。

Thanks to our producer, Dennis Golin, the rest of The Motley Fool team.

马特、乔恩和我，感谢大家的收听，我们很快再聊。

For Matt, Jon, and myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.