大银行获利，IBM暴跌

今天在《富达隐藏宝藏投资》节目中，大型银行都对市场表现非常满意。

Big banks are loving this market today on Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

欢迎收听《富达隐藏宝藏投资》。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是你们的主持人泰勒·克罗。

I'm your host, Tyler Crowe.

今天，我邀请到了长期为富达撰稿的怀特曼和马特·弗兰克尔。

And today, I'm joined by longtime Fool contributors, Whiteman and Matt Frankel.

正如我在开场时提到的，我们今天要聊的是几乎所有今天公布财报的银行都迎来的爆炸性季度，几乎美国所有主要银行都在今天发布了业绩，结果都非常亮眼。

As I kinda hinted with the intro, we're gonna get into the blockbuster quarter that just about every bank had that reported today, and it was pretty much anybody that is a major bank in The United States, reported today, and it looked fantastic.

我们还会聊一些听众来信，但首先，今天最大的新闻是：我们在录制这期节目时，IBM的股价已经下跌了26%，因为该公司提前公布了下一季度的初步业绩，远低于分析师的预期。

We're also gonna get into some reader emails, but first, we're gonna start with the big kinda news moment of the day, and that is shares of IBM are down 26% as we are taping this show after the company issued preliminary results for the upcoming quarter that really were not in line with analyst expectations.

卢，这次跌幅可不小。

Now, Lou, this was a big drop.

我们开播前，我刚看到彭博社的一条头条。

I saw a Bloomberg headline earlier before we got on.

这是自1968年以来这只股票最大的单日跌幅，比1987年黑色星期一还要惨。

It was the biggest drop since, I think, 1968 for the stock, more than, you know, Black Monday in 1987.

可在我看来，这次调整其实没那么严重，怎么就跌得这么狠？

So what was this big drop for what it seemed to me was a relatively modest revision to what we're seeing.

这里面肯定还有别的原因。

There had to have been more to the story here.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得确实有别的原因。

I think I think there is.

正如你所说，这还不是完整的财报。

As you say, this isn't the full earnings release.

这只是初步数据。

This is preliminary.

IBM的情况是，他们只是预警说收入会落在172亿美元左右，低于原先预期的179亿美元。

IBM, basically, all they warned is revenue is gonna come in about 17,200,000,000, short of 17,900,000,000.

这个差距其实不算大。

It's not a huge amount.

我觉得引发抛售的，其实是他们给出的理由。

I think what triggered the sell off is kind of the reasoning given.

首席执行官阿尔温德·克里希纳说，六月最后几周，客户把资本支出从IBM转向了硬件、服务器和内存存储。

CEO, Arvind Krishna said, last few weeks of June, saw clients shift CapEx towards hardware, servers, memory storage away from Big Blue.

这恐怕不只是本季度最后两周的临时变动。

That's probably not just a last two weeks at a quarter thing.

考虑到股价之前涨得那么高，我觉得这更像是‘利好出尽’的抛售行为。

Given the way the stock had traded up, I think that this is a head for the exit, sell the news sort of a move.

是的。

Yeah.

收入差了7亿美元，也不算小数目。

A or something in the difference of a $700,000,000 change in revenue.

是的。

Yeah.

这个数字听着挺吓人，但话说回来，170亿上下差个几亿，真不算啥大事。

The number sounds big, but, again, if we're talking about 17,000,000,000, give or take a few 100,000,000, that's not a big deal.

几个月前，我和你还有马特在圣地亚哥为《富达投资》做过一场直播，那时候你把IBM股票列为当前最看好的标的之一。

Now, Matt, the three of us did a live event for The Motley Fool back in San Diego a few months ago, and you made the case for IBM stock as one of your top picks right now.

我可不是想趁机拿你开涮，毕竟股价现在跌了，大家难免会说‘瞧，马特看走眼了吧’。

Now I'm not trying to put you on full blast here because the stock is down and, know, oh, let's all make fun of Matt.

但今天公布的这些信息，有没有改变你对这只股票的看法？

But does anything that announced today alter your thinking here?

我们刚才也说了，这算不上重大调整，但感觉背后还有别的事情在发生。

Like we said, this isn't a huge revision, but there's some seems to be some other stuff going on here.

对。

Yes.

首先，我很欢迎别人指出我公开推荐的股票出了问题，尤其是像今天这种状况。

I mean, so first of all, I welcome being called out when I make a public call on a stock like this and then, you know, something like today happens.

正如Lou说的，这些数字本身也没那么糟。

As as Lou said, the numbers themselves weren't too awful.

我的意思是，172亿对比179亿，光凭这个数字根本不足以导致股价跌26%，但背后还有别的原因。

I mean, that, you know, 17,200,000,000 versus 17,900,000,000, that's not worthy of a 26% drop all by itself, but there is more to the story.

每股收益是2.93美元，而市场预期是3.02美元。

I mean, earnings per share came in at $2.93 versus expectations of $3.00 2.

这还不至于让股价跌26%。

Not worthy of a 26% drop.

顺便说一句，这将是IBM有史以来最糟糕的单日跌幅。

This would be IBM's worst single day ever, by the way.

之前最大的单日跌幅发生在1987年黑色星期一，而这次还会超过那次。

The the previous biggest one day drop they had was Black Monday in in 1987, and this would exceed that.

所以投资者更关心的问题是，这种向内存和其他硬件增加支出的趋势，到底是暂时的阻力，还是正在变成IBM这类公司的长期问题？

So the question that seems to be on investors' mind and the one that is more worthy of the drop we're seeing is if the shift towards spending more on things like memory and other hardware is a temporary headwind or is it becoming a permanent problem for companies like IBM?

Christian自己的解释是，客户把六月底或七月底的资本支出转向了服务器、存储和内存，目的是在涨价前锁定供应。

So Christian's own explanation is that clients redirected their late July or late June capex towards server, storage, and memory to lock in supply ahead of price hikes.

别忘了，苹果最近刚提过价，就是专门因为内存成本上涨。

Remember, we've seen Apple raise its prices recently specifically because of memory.

这里的情况也是一样。

Same idea here.

所以看起来，IBM的客户只是对内存价格飙升做出的短期反应。

So that sounds like a temporary reaction by IBM's customers to soaring memory prices.

但另一方面，美光最近表示，内存供应紧张会持续到2027年，而且这些内存厂商已经开始转向签订更长期的价格协议和服务合同。

But on the other hand, Micron recently said that memory supply is gonna be tight well into 2027, and we're starting to see these memory companies shift toward longer term price agreed service contracts.

这才是让我真正担心的长期问题。

So that's what kind of scares me about this long term.

是的。

Yeah.

这一点也让我觉得有点不对劲。

And this is what kind of bugged me about it a little bit as well.

我的意思是，如果这只是一个偶然情况，比如只是把采购推迟了六到九个月，那倒还好。

I mean, if this was just a one off, like, yeah, you know, things are gonna get shifted maybe six, nine months down the road.

再说，七亿美元的销售额，也算不上多大件事。

Again, $700,000,000 in sales, not the biggest thing.

这看起来像是为了应对短期压力而做的大动作。

It seems like this is a big move for a short term headwind.

但说实话，看到这种事，很多机构投资者和高频交易员可能知道得更多，因为他们能直接打电话去问清楚。

But, you know, when I see things like this, and let's all be kind of honest here, there's a lot of institutional investors who and high high frequency traders and might know a little bit more because they can pick up the phone and ask a few things.

我总觉得，这里可能不止一只蟑螂。

One of the things I kinda think of is there might be more than one cockroach in the kitchen here.

所以展望未来，关注IBM的投资者或许该想想：天啊。

So as we're looking forward, investors that are looking at IBM, maybe wanna think like, oh, man.

也许现在正是入手低价股的好时机，毕竟今天看到的情况已经够明显了。

Maybe this is just a good time to to buy some cheap shares because of, you know, of what we've seen today.

接下来还可能有什么消息？是会让投资者安心的利好，还是预示着真正困难的信号？

You know, what else could be coming down the pipe that may that may assuage investors or maybe something that may signal it's an actual rough patch?

我们还能关注哪些迹象，是积极的信号，还是更糟情况的前兆？

What are some other things that we can look for that may be promising or, you know, signs of worse to come?

是的。

Yeah.

我们目前还不清楚的是，Lou提到这只是一个初步报告。

So one thing we don't have yet, Lou mentioned this is just the preliminary report.

我们掌握的信息还不完整。

We don't know everything.

IBM的订单数据还没出来，也就是那些已经承诺但尚未实现的未来收入。

We don't have IBM's bookings yet, meaning the future revenue that is now that is being committed to.

在最近几个季度，尤其是AI业务方面，这部分一直是推动股价的关键因素。

That's been a big driver of the stock in recent quarters, especially on the AI side of the business.

但根据今天Krishna整体偏负面的语气，我预计订单数字不会像上个季度那样亮眼。

But judging by Krishna's generally negative tone that we've heard today, I'm not expecting the bookings number to look nearly as stellar as it did last quarter.

他们提前预警，这才是最大的警示信号，通常只有在情况特别糟糕时才会这么做。

The fact that they preannounced is is really the biggest red flag here, and that's what's, that's usually reserved when things are especially bad.

所以我的结论是，今天这个走势是合理的。

So my bottom line is that today's move makes sense.

这还不至于让人恐慌。

It isn't a reason to panic.

坦白说，目前IBM在我的投资组合里占的比例不大，如果股价能稳住，我打算适当加一点仓。

To be transparent, IBM is a relatively small position in my portfolio right now, so I'm planning to cautiously add to it a little bit if this price holds.

这个风险收益比在我看来很合理，尤其是如果你的投资周期超过五年的话。

The risk reward makes a lot of sense to me, especially if you have a five plus year time horizon.

你提到的那场圣地亚哥活动上，我谈过一些事，比如IBM正在悄悄成为量子计算领域的领头羊，这也是我投资逻辑的一部分。

At that San Diego event you mentioned, I I talked about things like how IBM's quietly becoming the quantum computer leader, as as part of my thesis.

不过，等7月22日他们发布完整财报时，我会特别关注。

But I'm gonna be watching their full earnings report when it comes out on July 22 very closely.

那天是我的生日，可见我有多在意这件事。

That's my birthday, and that's how much I'm paying attention to this.

我肯定会仔细看的。

I'm still gonna be reading it.

我觉得有必要提一下，当我们说今天股价在打折的时候。

I think it's important to mention just when we talk about, you know, it's it's on sale today.

这一跌其实让我们又回到了五月中旬的水平。

It's basically the the drop means we're back to where we were in mid May.

所以别一上来就慌，这反而是个入手的好机会。

So before people, like, yell or, you know, go out, it's a buying opportunity.

你懂的。

You know?

我觉得这种视角确实挺必要的。

I I do think that perspective is is needed.

正如马特提到的，真正的问题在于，我们能不能把这看成是暂时的现象，总会过去的。

I the real question here, as Matt hinted at this, is is that there is a way to spin this as it's a temporary phenomena and it will pass.

也有一种解读是，IBM卖的东西，其实没客户买的东西那么重要。

There is also a way to read this as what IBM is selling isn't as important to the end customer as what they are buying.

这几乎引出了一个问题——就像消费领域，我们常说必需品和非必需品。

There's almost a just question about is you know, with consumer, we talk about staples and discretionary.

我们也可以这么说，IBM属于非必需品范畴，而不是必需品。

There is a way to spin this that IBM is in the discretionary bucket and not the, you know, staple bucket here.

我不确定这种解读对不对，但我觉得这值得提醒一下。

I don't know if that is the right reading, but I think that's a word of caution.

你想啊，总不能把全世界的钱都花在每件事上吧。

And you think about this, just there can't be you can't spend all the money in the world on everything.

归根结底，企业必须做出取舍。

At the end of the day, corporations have to make choices.

本季度他们做出的选择，并没有让IBM受益。

The choices they made in this quarter did not benefit IBM.

是的。

Yeah.

而且我

And I

我同意，IBM更偏向于可选消费，而不是像食品日用品那样的必需品，尤其是在我们讨论的这个领域。

mean, I I would agree with that, that IBM is more in the discretionary basket than, than, you know, consumer staples, especially when it comes to what we're talking here.

比如，你想请多少AI顾问都可以。

Like, you know, you can hire all the AI consultants you want to.

如果你的系统连基本内存都不够，其他都谈不上了。

If you don't have enough memory to keep your systems going, that really doesn't matter.

所以客户花多少钱在这些上面，本质上是可有可无的支出，这也是为什么在这波AI浪潮里，我们的收入时高时低。

So when it, when it comes to what their, their clients are spending money on, it is more of a discretionary thing, and that's why we're seeing, you know, revenue kind of, you know, ebb and flow during this AI cycle.

就像卢说的，咱们得客观看待这件事。

And, you know, as as Lou said, let's keep this all in perspective.

过去三年，IBM的表现一直跑赢大盘。

Over the past three years, IBM is beating the market.

过去五年，IBM的整体回报也全面超越了市场。

Over the past five years, the IBM is beating the market over, on a total performance basis.

是啊，就像你说的，最近这段时间，情况和五月差不多。

So, yeah, it's been this past like you said, it's, you know, about the same where it was in May.

和一月份相比，也差不多。

It's about the same where it was in January.

2026年到目前为止对IBM来说并不亮眼，但要是揭开表象看，基本面其实还不错。

2026 has not been IBM's shining year so far, but, you know, if we start pulling back the curtain, things are still looking okay.

我们得看看这到底是不祥之兆，还是只是个暂时的障碍，时间会给出答案。

We'll have to see whether or not this is a foreboding sign or maybe just, you know, a temporary roadblock, but we will see.

接下来，我们将深入聊聊银行的财报。

Coming up next, we're gonna really jump into bank earnings.

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In 2026, I've been trying to improve my health, but here's the thing I found.

如果你不跟踪自己的血液检测数据，那就等于在瞎子摸象。

If you're not tracking your blood work, you're basically flying blind.

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在家操作只需两分钟，不用扎针，只需贴一个设计简洁、无痛的采集装置在手臂上。

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采完血后，把样本放进Rhythm提供的包装盒里，他们还会安排上门取件。

Once your blood is collected, you put the sample in the package that rhythm provides, and they will even arrange to have it picked up from your front door.

我一个月前做了第一次检测。

I did my first test about a month ago.

Rhythm的检测套装寄到家里了。

The rhythm kit came in the mail.

我花两分钟就把血抽好了。

I drew my blood in about two minutes.

再简单不过了。

Couldn't be easier.

两天左右结果就出来了，他们的平台让数据特别容易看懂。

The results were live in about two days, and their portal makes it easy to understand what's going on.

他们还配了AI健康教练，帮你解读结果并给出建议。

They've even got an AI health coach to help explain your results and recommend actions.

拿到检测报告后，我调整了饮食方式。

Since I got my labs, I've changed the way I've eaten.

体重开始下降了，也能清楚判断像GLP-1这样的方案是不是适合你。

Pounds are starting to come off, and it's easy to determine if something like a GLP one is right for you.

我不是那种一有事就往医院跑的人。

I'm not one to run to the doctor.

所以我能在家做完检测、很快拿到结果，这让我彻底上瘾了，第二个检测包已经寄在路上了。

So the fact that I can do this at home and get fast results is what has me hooked, and my second kit is already on the way.

Rhythm每月只要79美元，还不到传统实验室检测的一小部分价格。

Rhythm is only $79 per month, a fraction of traditional lab testing.

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现在，Rhythm为我们的听众提供首月85折优惠，还有免运费，去 rhythm.com/fool 就能享受。

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访问 rhythmwith1hrythmhealth.com/fool，首月85折，包邮到家。

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别再瞎猜了。

Stop guessing.

开始检测吧，rhythmhealth.com/fool。

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我今天查了下财报日历，当然全是大银行，还有一家公司叫Fastenal，我总觉得有点怪。

So I was checking the, earnings calendar for today and of course we had all the big banks and then there was one other company Fastenal, which I felt kind of funny.

感觉就像‘其中一个格格不入’——我们本该聊巨型银行，结果跳出来个工业零部件供应商。

It was almost like a one of these things is not like the other sort of situation where it's like, yeah, we're gonna talk about gigantic banks and then an industrial parts distributor.

但想想看，几乎所有银行的业绩都大幅超预期，

But, you know, considering how robust and I I you know, beating expectations that pretty much every bank posted.

相比之下，这家小规模的工业零部件公司反而不那么值得提了，也许改天再说吧。

It seemed like it was the more appropriate thing to talk about than this small industrial parts manufacturer, which, you know, maybe for another time.

今天，美国银行、富国银行、高盛和花旗全都公布了财报，结果无一例外都超出了预期。

You know, today, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup all reported earnings, and all of them reported better than expected results.

我觉得本季度的主旋律就是股权交易的暴增。

I think the theme of this quarter was massive gains in equity trading.

高盛尤其突出，单季度股权交易收入就达到了75亿美元。

I think Goldman Sachs led the way where they had a they brought in 7,500,000,000 in equities trading this quarter alone.

当然，有人会说这得益于SpaceX上市带来的市场波动，属于一次性收益，但有没有一些不太被提及的深层原因，让这些银行都交出了这么亮眼的成绩？

Now we can say that it was stock volatility in the SpaceX IPO that resulted in some one off gains, but are there some kind of less discussed themes that led to all these companies posting such good results?

是的。

Yes.

你说得对，泰勒，这些业绩确实非常出色，不只是普通的超预期表现。

I mean, you're right, Tyler, that the results were generally excellent and not just in they're not just typical earnings beats here.

摩根大通的每股收益达到了7.70美元。

I mean, JPMorgan Chase reported $7.70 in earnings per share.

比预期高出将近2美元。

That's almost $2 more than expected.

他们的营收也超出了预期约70亿美元，差距大得离谱。

They beat revenue expectations by about $7,000,000,000, not even close.

这不仅仅是投行业务的问题，富国银行的利润也大幅超出预期，而他们的投行业务其实很小。

And it's not just investment banking, I mean, Fargo's, their earnings beat by a significant margin even though they have a very small investment bank.

我对你说的，把股市交易增长归因于SpaceX上市波动这个说法，有点不同看法。

I pushed back a bit on when it comes to equity trading on the one off framing that you just said around the volatility in SpaceX IPO.

我们看到的并购活动规模，是自2021年以来最高的。

We're seeing M and A at a level that we haven't seen since 2021.

上半年，全球并购交易总额达到了3万亿美元。

Global M and A was $3,000,000,000,000 in the first half.

所以这并不是单一投行IPO带来的偶然现象。

And so it wasn't just one dealer IPO.

这其实是整个行业普遍的趋势。

It's a general, like, industry wide trend.

关键问题是，这种势头能持续多久？

The question is how sustainable is it?

但更直接地回答你的问题，有一件事我很少看到有人讨论，那就是净利息收入这一块。

But to more directly answer your question, one thing that I'm not seeing discussed that much is the net interest income side of this.

即使美联储目前按兵不动，各大银行仍在普遍上调全年净利息收入的预期。

Even with the Fed essentially on hold right now, the banks are generally raising their net interest income expectations.

比如摩根大通，他们现在预计全年净利息收入比四月份时多出25亿美元。

I mean, JPMorgan Chase, they're expecting 2 and a half billion dollars more in full year net interest income than they were in April.

他们的贷款业务增长非常强劲。

They're seeing strong loan growth.

银行内部的利率动态——也就是存款成本和贷款收益之间的差距——比预期要好。

The internal rate dynamics, meaning what they're paying on deposits versus what they're getting on loans is better than expected.

还有几个重要的趋势，比如财富管理业务的资金流入全面增长。

There are a few other big themes, wealth management inflows across the board.

之前持观望态度的投资者，现在开始把资金投入市场了。

Investors are putting money to work that had been on the sidelines.

摩根大通报告了四万四千名新投资者。

JPMorgan reported 44,000 quote first time investors.

高盛的资产管理规模同比增长了百分之二十，但整个市场并没有上涨这么多。

Goldman's assets under management grew by 20% year over year and the market isn't up by 20%.

更重要的是，信贷质量的表现好于预期。

More importantly, credit quality is holding up better than we expected.

大型银行的不良贷款核销率普遍低于预期。

The big banks, they're reporting lower than expected charge offs almost across the board.

这说明，尽管存在一些重大的经济担忧，比如伊朗战争之类的，消费者和企业依然保持相当稳健。

And it shows that despite some major economic fears, you know, the Iran war, things like that, consumers and businesses are still staying pretty healthy.

是的

Yeah.

马特把这一点讲得非常清楚。

Matt did a great job breaking it down.

我简单提几点看法。

I'll just make a couple of quick points.

第一点是净利息差。

One on net interest margin.

长期利率对银行有利。

Hire for longer works with banks.

我恨不得站在山顶上大声喊出来。

I'm going to just go up and scream that from the hilltops.

现在金融股的估值太有吸引力了，尤其是地区性银行。

Financials make so much sense to me right now where they are valued, especially in the regional banks.

我觉得我们该从这次利率周期中学到一些教训。

I think let's, let's learn a lesson from this in terms of what the interest rate cycle means for banks.

另外，咱们得特别提一下花旗银行。

The other thing let's just do a special shout out for Citi.

我们聊银行的时候，花旗经常被当笑话讲。

Citi is usually the butt of a joke when we're discussing banks.

他们过去确实犯过不少错。

They have a long history of screwing things up.

但CEO简·弗雷泽主导的重组计划，现在看来挺见效的。

But CEO, Jane Fraser, the restructuring program seems to be working.

他们的目标都提前完成了。

They're hitting goals ahead of schedule.

他们不仅把股息提高了12%，还宣布了300亿美元的股票回购计划。

They raised a dividend by 12%, announced a 30,000,000,000 with a b share buyback program.

在估值倍数上，花旗是这一群里最落后的。

Citi is the laggard of this group in terms of multiples.

投资者该意识到的可能是：现在真该认真看待花旗了。

The investor takeaway here is maybe it's time to take Citi, seriously.

也许现在是时候认真看看他们了。

Maybe it's time to give them a look.

对。

Yeah.

马特，你说得对，这事儿确实不是偶然，但感觉更像是某种氛围下的产物。

Matt, to your point, you know, saying it wasn't necessarily a one off event, but it certainly does feel like a vibes sort of event.

就像你提到的，并购活动非常活跃。

Like you said, m and a activity is high.

IPO活动也很旺盛。

IPO activity is high.

资金正从 sidelines 流向市场，用行话讲，现在市场情绪高涨，人人都在趁势获利。

Money is moving off the sidelines and into the you know, to use the term, the animal spirit seem to be really hitting everybody right now, and everybody seems to be cashing in.

当然，庄家总是赢家，而这里的庄家就是这些大银行。

And, course, the house tends to win, and the house in this case is the big banks.

不过我想再深入聊一个具体点的话题，那是几周前的事了。

I wanna drill into something a little bit more specific though, and it was a few weeks back.

所有银行都通过了压力测试，主要是和监管机构一起确定，在信贷事件发生时，账面上需要保留多少资本。

The banks, all of them went through their stress test, basically, working with, regulators to figure out, you know, how much capital you need to keep on the books in the event of a credit event.

这跟《多德-弗兰克法案》有很大关系，那是金融危机之后出台的，就是为了避免重蹈覆辙。

You know, a lot to do with, Dodd Frank back, after the great financial crisis, just in making sure that we don't run into the same problems we had again.

这次大多数银行都顺利通过了，部分原因是这次的压力测试没有过去几年那么严格。

And most of them passed with flying colors this time in part because the regulatory stress test wasn't quite as robust as it has been in years past.

当时甚至有人讨论要加快股票回购，或者用其他方式释放那些原本为了安全而保留在资产负债表上的资本。

So so much so that there were discussions at the time about accelerated buybacks and other ways of kind of releasing capital that was on the balance sheet for safety reasons.

这些措施对现在的业绩有影响吗？还是说它们只是未来才会显现的效果？

Did that play any part in these results and have you know, that has all these stocks doing incredibly well, or is that maybe just a a later down the the road sort of story?

这些措施不会直接影响现在的业绩。

It wouldn't have played a part in the results.

但可能对今天的市场情绪有一定推动作用。

It might be part of the enthusiasm today.

不过话说回来，当初宣布的时候，银行股确实涨了不少。

Although, look, bank's got a nice boost when it was announced.

我觉得股价上涨的原因其实很简单。

I think why we're seeing the stocks moving higher, it's it's kind of it's a simple answer.

就是今天的业绩表现。

It's today's results.

一家银行表现出韧性固然很好，

If one bank shows resilience, that's great for that one bank.

但整个行业普遍向好，说明这可不是偶然的一季度现象。

But the across the board positivity, that sort of implies that wasn't a one quarter fluke.

也不是某一家银行的临时好运。

It wasn't a one time thing from anyone.

眼下金融股市场充满了担忧和不安。

There's a lot of fear and nervousness when it comes to financials right now.

而今天全行业的一致好转，应该能缓解不少这种焦虑。

I think just the across the board success today, that should alleviate some of that nervousness.

广告结束后，我们来回复观众来信。

Coming up after the break, we're gonna jump into the mailbag.

我连续十四个月，抢了三十家银行。

For fourteen months, I robbed 30 banks.

有时候一天内连抢好几家。

Sometimes several in one day.

我早就觉得，自己活不了多久了。

I lost all sense that my life was going to be long at all.

我只想抢了钱，赶紧溜之大吉，然后痛痛快快花掉，享受一番。

I just want to grab the loot and get the hell out of Dodge as fast as possible and go spend it and have fun.

这一直是我做事的信条。

That was my ethos.

我就这么干了。

And so I did.

我不是社会的诱饵。

I'm not bait for society.

他们有一堆道德准则，可在我看来，都太胆小了。

They have all these moralities, but they're too timid for me.

现在我是个罪犯了。

Now I'm a criminal.

我是个坏人。

I'm a bad guy.

去看看乔丹·哈宾格节目第1264集和第1265集。

Check out episodes twelve sixty four and twelve sixty five of the Jordan Harbinger show.

大家好。

Hey, everyone.

简单提醒一下。

Just a quick reminder.

如果你想问我们问题，并且希望我们在节目中直接念出来，就发邮件到 podcasts@fool.com。

If you wanna ask a question to us and have it read live on air, go ahead and email us at podcasts@fool.com.

邮箱是 podcasts@fool.com。

That's podcastwithans@fool.com.

老规矩，有三个要求。

Three requests as always.

保持傻气。

Keep it foolish.

别太长，方便我直播时读出来，也别问具体的投资建议，免得惹上证交会的麻烦。

Keep it short enough I can read on air, and try not to ask any individual advice so we don't get in trouble with the SEC.

我们通常只读一条，但今天破例读两条，因为真有人给我们发了粉丝来信，专门提到你谈国库券的事——不管是这个播客里，还是我们在富达基金会员活动中的现场分享。

You know, we normally only do one, but we're gonna do a two for today because we actually got a little bit of fan mail for Lou on this one because somebody apparently is a big fan of you talking about T bills, either here on the podcast or in some of our live appearances that we do for members over at The Motley Fool.

Lou，这个问题来自Mary Anne，她说：你经常提到把钱放在国库券里。

Lou, the question comes from Mary Anne and says, Lou often mentions that he parks money in t bills.

你能教教我们怎么实际购买国库券吗？

Could you give us a tutorial on how to actually buy t bills?

那Lou，你来给大家讲讲。

So, Lou, take it away.

好的。

Sure.

首先，买国库券的理由是，它其实不

Well, first off, the argument for it is it's it's not

它并不能替代股票。

it doesn't replace equities.

但你听我说。

But, look.

现在我买六个月的国债，收益率接近4%。

Right now, I'm getting almost 4% on six month bills.

如果这个收益比大多数线上储蓄账户都高，那为什么不直接追求更高收益呢？

If that's better than most online savings accounts, so why not just chase the yield?

至于怎么买，我给你几点建议。

As far as how you buy them, a couple of pointers.

你可以通过美国政府官网 treasurydirect.gov 购买国债，也可以通过大多数券商操作。

You can buy, treasuries through the US government at treasurydirect.gov, or you can do it through most brokerages.

价格和利率都是一样的，关键看你更喜欢哪种方式。

There isn't a different price or different rate, so it's really how you wanna do it.

我通过富达买，但我知道有些人喜欢分开处理。

I buy through Vanguard, but I know some people like to separate it out.

我听说Treasury Direct的体验不错。

I've heard good things about Treasury Direct.

这完全看你自己的偏好。

That's whatever you wanna do.

不同券商的实际使用体验会有些差别。

Actual user experience varies by brokerage.

不过操作起来跟买股票很像。

It's very similar to buying stocks though.

你只要点购买债券，然后选国债而不是公司债就行。

You just click buy bonds, select treasuries instead of corporates.

你可以买二级市场上已发行的国债，但我一般直接买新发行的，然后持有到期。

You can buy existing treasuries on the open market or but what I do is I buy new issues and just hold the maturity.

最让人困惑的地方，或者你该留意的一点，是它们的定价方式。

The most confusing thing or the thing you might wanna look at is the way they're priced.

新发行的国债是以1000美元为单位购买的，但你付的不是面值。

You buy new issues in $1,000 increments, but you don't pay face value.

你付的是本金，不包含利息。

You pay the amount before interest.

比如你今天付了980块，六个月后拿回1000块，这一点最容易让人糊涂。

So if you pay say $980 today and get a thousand bucks back in six months, for example, that's the most confusing part.

除此之外，其实挺简单的。

Other than that, pretty straightforward.

再说一遍，当存款利率没那么高时，如果国债收益更好，为什么不选它呢？

And again, it's kind of just as an alternative to savings accounts when the rates are better, why not take advantage of

利率啊。

the rate?

对。

Yep.

玛丽安，希望这回答了你的问题。

Well, Mary Anne, I hope that answers your question.

回到股票相关的话题，我们有个来自布莱恩的问题，他还特意说明自己来自伊利诺伊州的玉米带，不是别的地方。

And back to the kinda stock related ones, we got a question from Brian, and he really went out of his way to say that he's from Corn Country Of Illinois and not just, you know, some other part of Illinois.

Brian问，大家觉得Toast现在咋样？

And Brian asks, guys, what is up with Toast?

我持有这只股票大概两年了。

I've owned it for about two years.

股价跌了不少。

Stock's down quite a bit.

在《富比士》播客里，虽然不是直接回Brian的邮件，但在很多其他地方，我们一直对它评价挺正面的。

Motley Fool podcast and, you know, not to Brian's email, but in a lot of other places within the Motley Fool's kind of extended universe of media, we've talked positively about it.

而且它已经被用得相当普遍了。

And, you know, it's been used rather ubiquitously.

我觉得它现在市场占有率还不错。

I think it has a decent market share right now.

Brian提到，餐厅的停车场通常都停满了车。

Brian asked, restaurant parking lots usually seem full.

我知道成本涨了，利润空间也很紧。

I'm aware costs have increased and margins are tight.

Toast这只股票是不是没救了？

Is this a lost cause stock, Toast?

我一般都会持有个两三年再考虑出手。

I usually hang up, stocks a couple of years.

你目前对Toast怎么看？

What are your current thoughts on Toast?

对的。

Yeah.

我确实挺看好Toast的。

So, I mean, I'm a fan of Toast.

说实在的，我就是那个经常正面评价它的人，所以这也不奇怪。

To be fair, I'm one of the ones that you're referring to that usually speaks positively of it, so that's probably not a surprise.

但不管AI带来的担忧如何，它的增长故事依然成立。

But the growth story here is still intact despite any AI disruption fears.

上个季度，其年度经常性收入增长了26%。

So annual recurring revenue grew by 26% in the last quarter.

他们新增了七千个门店，说明这个产品依然深受客户欢迎。

They added 7,000 new locations, so it's a product that's still resonating with customers.

他们的利润率非常出色。

Their margins are excellent.

最近一个季度，他们的运营利润率首次突破了20%，而且还没做任何调整。

Their operating margin, not adjusted, was above 20% for the first time ever in the most recent quarter.

他们正在积极回购股票，这明显说明管理层认为股价被低估了。

They're aggressively buying back stocks so that management clearly thinks the stock is underpriced.

对于这类SaaS公司，看空的理由通常是：AI代理最终会把它们的产品标准化，导致用户流失、定价能力下降之类的。

I mean, bear case here is with all software as a service businesses like this, is that AI agents are eventually going to commoditize it, and kind of drive down users, drive down pricing power, things like that.

Toast在这方面有几重优势，能很好地抵御这种风险。

Toast is is nicely insulated from this for a few reasons.

首先，他们掌控了整个技术栈，包括硬件和软件。

So number one, it owns the full stack, meaning hardware and software.

那些小终端设备，服务员手里拿的，只能运行Toast的软件。

The little Toast, the things that, servers hold in their hands only work with Toast software.

它在自研AI工具方面做得非常出色，目前已经在17万家门店投入使用，这在劳动力流动性较高的行业里是个不小的竞争优势。

It has done an excellent job of building out its own AI tools and the fact that it's used in a 171,000 locations right now, that's a pretty competitive advantage in an industry that has a somewhat transient workforce.

你在一家餐厅用惯了Toast系统，换到另一家店也能很快上手，换工作时的适应成本低多了。

You know, you're already trained on toast in one restaurant, you can easily move to another restaurant and it's, it's a lot less friction to move jobs.

当然，这里也有一些风险点需要注意。

There are some risk factors here to keep in mind for sure.

我们之前也聊过内存成本的问题，在其他业务板块里，这对Toast来说会是个明显的利润压力，毕竟它的内存需求量很大。

I mean, memory costs we've talked about on this, you know, in our other segments, they're expected to be a pretty big margin headwind to Toast because they have to they have a lot of memory needs.

市场竞争也很激烈。

There's a lot of competition.

Clover的门店数量更多，但Toast的交易总量更大。

Clover has more locations, just Toast has more more volume.

Square，也就是Block，依然是餐饮行业里的重要玩家。

Square, you know, Block Square is still a big part of the restaurant industry.

而且这股票现在并不便宜，但只要它能保持每年20%以上的营收增长，还能实现盈利，持续丰富功能生态，就还是有看头的。

And this is still not a cheap stock, but as long as it keeps growing the top line at 20% year over year and is doing it profitably, keeps building out its ecosystem of features.

我在当前这个价位上挺看好Toast的。

I I am a fan of Toast at these levels.

对。

Yeah.

我更喜欢这个生意，而不是它的股票。

I like the business better than the stock.

我一直不觉得它的股票有多吸引人。

I've never been enamored with the stock.

毕竟餐饮行业本身就是个利润率很低的难做买卖。

It's it's just restaurants are such a tough low margin business.

马特提到17万多家门店，但根据劳工统计局的数据，全美餐厅门店总数超过一百万家。

Matt mentions a 171,000 locations, but, from the BLS numbers, there's about over a million restaurant locations.

所以它的市场占有率其实并不高。

So it's not a huge market share.

我觉得Toast做的这些事，以前可能算有前瞻性，但没什么是Clover复制不了的。

I don't see anything in what Toast does that it might have been forward but I don't think there's anything that can't be copied by Clover.

很多餐厅都撑不下去关门了。

So many restaurants go out of business.

我不确定把系统先用起来、站稳脚跟是不是关键。

I don't know if just kind of getting your tools established or anchored in.

我不觉得换平台的成本有多重要。

I don't know if switching costs matter too much.

我觉得这行始终是个苦战的行业，利润薄，很难提升定价权。

I think this continues to be a just slugfest business, tough to gain margin, tough to gain real pricing power.

再说，作为消费者，我确实觉得他们让用餐体验变好了。

And again, I I I like as a consumer, they've made the restaurant experience better for me.

我祝他们一切顺利，但这股票我真不感兴趣。

I wish them all the best, but it's just not a not a stock I'm interested in.

是的。

Yeah.

我在这事儿上没什么立场，这么说吧。

I don't really have a horse in the or a dog in this fight, I guess, if you will.

我老是把比喻弄混。

Mixing my metaphors as always.

不过呢，我这会儿只是暂时戴上悲观的帽子而已。

But, you know, I'm just kinda throwing on the the the bear case cap for a second here.

马特，你说得对，这行竞争太激烈了，有Clover和Square在那儿。

Matt, to your point, you know, it is an intensely, competitive space with Clover and Square.

这三家加起来，已经占了相当大的市场份额。

And the three of them combined have, you know, hoovered up a decent amount of the of the space in terms of market share.

到目前为止，Toast的市场份额增长，正是他们实现20%营收或ARR增长的原因。

And Toast's gains in market share up until now have, you know, garnered that 20% revenue growth or ARR growth that they have seen.

我每次看这个，最在意的还是你提到的：只要他们能维持20%的营收增长，就意味着还得继续抢市场。

And the thing that I keep coming back to when I look at this is, you know, what you said was as long as they keep that 20% revenue growth, well, that involves, you know, continuing to grow market share.

我觉得从现在这个位置——据一些独立数据，他们大概在25%左右——再往上冲到40%，难度比从5%到10%再到现在这个水平要大得多。

And I think that the market share gains from here, where I think they're somewhere in, like, the mid twenties percent, at least, in some independent data that's that's been put out there, is going from, you know, that to 40% is much, much harder than going from, you know, five to 10% up to where it is today.

所以，未来营收放缓是完全有可能的，因为再想从竞争对手手里抢份额，只会越来越像贴身肉搏。

And so there is a real possibility that revenue could slow as a result because it becomes much more of a knife fight getting, you know, market share relative to a lot of its competitors.

但不管是谁，只要接触过这个产品，或者跟行业里的人聊过，都会觉得这产品真不错，这一点是实实在在的。

But it seems to be like as anyone who has either seen it or if you talk with people in the industry, they seem to really like the product and so it has that aspect to it.

我不是说它做不到，只是从现在开始，路会越来越难走。

Not saying that it can't do it, but it's just gonna get harder from here.

今天的时间就到这里了。

That's all the time we have for today.

Lou，Matt，谢谢你们分享这些看法。

Lou, Matt, thanks for sharing thoughts.

我马上念一下免责声明，咱们就先到这里。

I'm gonna hit disclosure, and we'll get out of here.

和往常一样，节目中的嘉宾可能持有他们提到的股票，而The Motley Fool也可能对嘉宾所谈的股票有正式的投资建议。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for our guests.

所以，别光听节目就决定买或卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有理财内容都遵循The Motley Fool的编辑标准，且未经广告商审核。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告属于赞助内容，仅提供信息参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provide for informational purposes only.

如需查看我们的完整广告披露说明，请参阅节目说明。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢制作人巴特·香农和整个富达团队对路、马特以及我的支持。

Thanks to producer Bart Shannon and the rest of Motley Fool team for Lou, Matt, myself.

感谢收听，我们下次再聊。

Thanks for listening and we'll chat again soon.