大型科技公司面临监管整顿

监管机构让科技巨头们如坐针毡。

Regulators have big tech on their toes.

Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资节目现在开始。

Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.

欢迎收听 Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资节目。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是 Travis Hoium，今天和我一起的是 Lou Whiteman 和 Matt Frankel。

I'm Travis Hoium joined today by Lou Whiteman and Matt Frankel.

各位，我们先从西北部的亚马逊说起，这是最新一家被政府监管机构盯上的公司。

Guys, let's start in the Northwest with Amazon, the latest to have the government regulators go after them.

联邦贸易委员会指控该公司通过广告方面的猫腻，从供应商那里拿走了大约 200 亿美元。

The FTC is accusing the company of basically taking $20,000,000,000 from their suppliers over advertising shenanigans.

这一切都有点像黑箱操作，Lou，但看起来政府确实开始更认真地对待这些事情了。

All of this is kind of a black box, Lou, but it does seem like the government is starting to take some of these things more seriously.

我们稍后会讨论 META。

We'll talk about META in a moment.

亚马逊的股价确实有点反应，昨天跌了百分之几，但看起来这就像是他们现在不得不面对的一个麻烦，而且还得持续一段时间。

And Amazon stock did react a little bit, down a couple percent yesterday, but it seems like this is one of those headaches that they're just gonna have to deal with for a while right now.

对。

Yeah.

这个麻烦只会越来越大，我觉得这才是关键。

The headache is only getting bigger, and I think that's the interesting thing.

我不知道该怎么看待这起诉讼。

I don't know what to make of this lawsuit.

亚马逊在辩护时非常强硬，说联邦贸易委员会显然不懂广告是怎么运作的。

Amazon was very, very feisty in their defense saying that, obviously, the FTC doesn't understand how advertising works.

所以他们准备全力应对。

So they're ready to defend this.

我关注的是另一起诉讼，而且你知道，这些加起来可能会变成一件大事。

The one that I'm watching is another lawsuit that and, you know, again, collectively, these could end up being a big deal.

但2023年另一起案件指控亚马逊实际上禁止卖家在其他竞争平台上提供更低的价格。

But a separate case filed in 2023 alleges Amazon effectively disallowed its sellers from offering lower prices on competing platforms.

如果真是这样，那就是很直接的反垄断问题了。

That's pretty straightforward antitrust, if so.

而且感觉这种事情是会有书面记录的。

And it feels like that's the sort of thing you can have a paper trail on.

那个案子明年三月开庭。

Trial for that starts next March.

我觉得那个才是真正有分量的，这个只是小打小闹。

I think that's the one with teeth, and this is sort of the sideshow.

但你看。

But look.

所有这些。

All of these.

没有一件能真正击垮亚马逊。

None of this is an Amazon killer.

但如果政府能有效限制这家公司的经营方式，尤其是它的零售业务，那这部分本来利润就很薄。

But if the government can effectively fence off how this company does business, how it does retail, it's already the low margin part of the business.

如果这让零售业务更不吸引人，那可能会改变亚马逊的面貌。

If it makes retail even less attractive, that could change what Amazon looks like.

是的，Matt。

Yeah, Matt.

彭博社那句有趣的引用是，调查得益于亚马逊员工凡事写下来的文化，内部邮件和聊天记录显示，关于这个所谓计划的影响有广泛的讨论，引文结束。

The interesting quote from Bloomberg was, the investigation was aided by Amazon employees culture of writing everything down with internal emails and chats showing widespread discussion about the impact of this alleged scheme, end quote.

亚马逊以这种写作文化著称，真是疯狂。

It is crazy that Amazon is known for this writing culture.

这是杰夫·贝索斯经常谈论的事情。

This is something Jeff Bezos talked a lot about.

作为愚蠢的投资者，我们喜欢这样，但如果你在做不该做的事，这往往会反过来咬你一口。

We like that as foolish investors, but it does tend to come back and bite you if you're doing something you shouldn't be.

员工确实写了很多东西，但真正可能让亚马逊为此赔钱的，是他们写下的内容。

The employees did write a lot down, it's what they wrote down that's really gonna maybe get Amazon on the hook to pay some money here.

我的意思是，内部文件显示，附加费让亚马逊的广告价格超出了竞争性广告市场本应产生的水平。

I mean, internal documents are showing that surcharges let Amazon get their ad prices beyond what a competitive ad market would have generated.

所以十年来，亚马逊一直在重复同一句话，一遍又一遍。

So for a decade now, Amazon has been repeating the same line over and over and over.

广告拍卖的赢家支付的费用大约比第二高出价者多一分钱。

The winners of its ad auctions pay roughly a penny more than the next highest bidder.

结果发现这不是真的。

That's turning out not to be true.

联邦贸易委员会表示，实际上从2018年开始，对于品牌赞助广告来说，这种情况就不再属实了，而产品赞助广告也很快就出现了同样的情况。

The FTC said that that stopped being true in reality as early as 2018 for sponsored brands, very soon after that for sponsored products.

而且这不仅仅是那些大广告商被这些更高的附加费所影响。

And this isn't just big advertisers that that are supposedly getting hit by these higher surcharges.

还有那些通过亚马逊推广自己电子书的人。

It's people who like, you know, advertise their ebooks through Amazon.

都是些小商家。

It's little guys.

我自己也经历过。

I've been there personally.

也许亚马逊还欠我点钱呢。

Maybe Amazon owes me some money.

谁知道呢。

I don't know.

但是，我的意思是，就算他们得把那200亿美元全退回去，那也就是一张超速罚单，真正的大问题不在这儿。

But, I mean, $20,000,000,000 is a is even if they had to give all that back is kind of a speeding ticket, that's not the real big deal here.

Matt，我一直对亚马逊的广告业务有个疑问，而且我知道，在杰夫·贝索斯快要离开的时候，他就说过，嘿，这里有个巨大的机会。

Matt, one of the questions I've always had about Amazon's advertising business, and and I know as Jeff Bezos was kind of on his way out, this was one of the areas where he said, hey, there's a huge opportunity here.

这才是我们真正要发展的方向。

This is what we've really gotta grow.

而且你看他们在零售方面的盈利能力，其实都是靠广告业务撑起来的。

And if you look at their profitability on the retail side, it has been driven by the ad business.

我的意思是，老式的亚马逊网站业务基本上就是收支平衡。

I mean, the old school amazon.com business was essentially breakeven.

就是那种负现金转换周期，也就是说，顾客先付钱，然后他们才需要付钱给供应商。

It was, you know, negative cash conversion cycle, meaning customers pay before they have to actually pay suppliers.

所以，你知道，这在增长的时候会带来自由现金流。

So that, you know, brings in free cash flow when you're growing.

但盈利能力其实一直是建立在模仿谷歌的做法上的，就是说，我想搜索一个产品，亚马逊会先给你展示一大堆广告，然后你才能看到自然搜索结果，这看起来有点像他们在从生态系统中榨取价值，而不是提供最好的客户体验。

But the profitability was always really predicated on doing essentially what Google did was, hey, I wanna search for a product, Amazon's gonna show you a whole bunch of ads before you actually get to the organic result, which just seems a little like they're extracting from the ecosystem rather than giving the best customer experience.

而且看起来这次也是同样的路子，他们现在尽可能多地榨取，而且他们有压力要增长这个广告业务，也许这次真的做得太过分了。

And it seems like this is just along those same lines that they're now extracting as much as they can and they have pressure to grow this ad business and maybe it just went too far.

这是亚马逊对此会说的话。

Here's what Amazon will say to that.

虽然我不一定相信。

Not that I necessarily believe it.

公司开始优先考虑广告的相关性，而不是他们从广告中获得的出价，他们大约在2019年开始这样做。

The company started prioritizing ad relevance over the bid price they were getting on ads, and they started doing this in about 2019.

所以这意味着，当你搜索时，就像你说的，要花一段时间才能看到自然搜索结果。

So what this means is when you search, like you say, it takes a while to get your organic results.

他们把最相关的广告放在那里，而不是出价最高的广告。

They put the most relevant ads there instead of the highest bid ads.

这样一来，整个页面看起来就像是你搜索的内容，而不是一堆广告后面跟着你搜索的内容。

And what that does is it makes the whole page look like what you searched for, instead of making it look like a bunch of ads followed by what you searched for.

所以这有好有坏。

So that's a good thing or a bad thing.

亚马逊会说，正因为如此，自2019年以来，其赞助产品广告的平均中标价下降了约50%。

Amazon will say that it's because of this, its average winning bid fell about 50% since 2019 for sponsored products ads.

赞助产品，比如电子书，比如那些个体商家在卖的东西。

Sponsored products, things like ebooks, things like, you know, things that individual merchants are selling.

他们说这为广告商节省了80亿美元。

And they say that that saved $8,000,000,000 for advertisers.

但即使有这些节省，如果广告商在一个真正自由的竞价市场中多付了200亿美元，那么FTC可能就有理由立案了。

But if even with that savings, if advertisers paid $20,000,000,000 more than they would have in a truly free bidding market, then the FTC might have a case here.

Lou，最后说一句。

Lou, final word.

这事是大问题还是小问题？

Is this a big deal or no big deal?

再说，这件事本身我觉得还能应付，但我确实担心所有这些事情带来的连锁反应。

Again, this in and of itself, I think, is manageable, but I do wonder about just the knock on effects of all of these things.

而且，亚马逊真的需要做零售业务吗？

And, again, does Amazon need to be a retail business?

会不会有一天，这个业务就不值得做了？

Is there a world one day where this just isn't worth it?

因为就像我一开始说的，如果这个业务里最不赚钱的部分因为监管变得更不赚钱，那它是不是就变成了一个得不偿失的麻烦？

Because it does feel like back to what I said at the top, if the least profitable part of this business ends up even less profitable because of regulation, does it just become more of a headache than it's worth?

我们拭目以待。

We'll see.

对我来说，有趣的地方就在这里，但这是个长期的问题。

That's kind of the interesting thing for me, but that's a long term question.

对。

Yeah.

尤其是如果人工智能真的像杰西最近在电话会议里说的那样，有万亿美元的机会。

Especially if artificial intelligence does have that trillion dollar opportunity that Jesse talked about recently in one of their conference calls.

等我们回来，我们要聊聊Meta Platforms最近的法律纠纷。

When we come back, we're gonna get to Meta Platforms latest legal battles.

欢迎回到Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

上周晚些时候，Meta与美国各地的州检察长达成和解，同意支付170亿美元的罚款。

Late last week, META reached a settlement with US attorneys generals all over the country to pay $17,000,000,000 in fines.

还对儿童使用社交媒体设置了一些限制。

Also put some curbs on usage of social media for children.

Matt，这对Meta来说会是个大问题吗？

Matt, is this gonna be something that's a big deal for META?

这是个很大的数字。

It's a it's a big number.

170亿美元确实是一大笔钱，但放到大局来看，对于一家市值万亿的公司来说，不管现在市值多少，这看起来确实有点

$17,000,000,000 is a lot of money, but in the grand scheme of things for a, you know, trillion dollar company, whatever their market cap is today, it does seem a little bit

像是九牛一毛。

like a drop in the bucket.

我正想说，这算大数目吗？

I was gonna say, is it a big number?

是吗？

Is it?

因为我们是

Because it's We're

我们太

we're so

我们到现在对这些巨额数字已经麻木了。

we're so jaded by all these massive numbers attack at this point.

首先，这笔钱是分十年支付的。

It's spread out over ten years, first of all.

其中大约30%取决于YouTube和TikTok是否也基本上做Meta刚同意做的事情，这

About 30% of it is contingent on YouTube and TikTok doing essentially the same things that Meta just agreed to do, which

顺便说一句，我觉得这招挺高明的。

is That was brilliant, by the way, I think.

这根本不是必然的。

Which is not a given at all.

罚款本身基本上不算什么，而且不仅仅是数字的问题。

The fine itself is essentially nothing, and it's not just the numbers.

有些州，特别是佛罗里达州，对Meta非常强硬，拒绝加入这个协议，不仅仅是因为提供的经济处罚不够严厉。

Some states, this specifically Florida, they're being really tough on Meta, declined to join this, and not just because the financial penalties being offered weren't strict enough.

那只是其中一方面。

That's only one side of it.

他们说Meta在改变平台以保护孩子方面做得不够。

They said META isn't doing enough to change its platform to protect kids.

比如，现在青少年在午夜到早上6点之间不能使用Meta。

Like, right now, teenagers can no longer be on META between midnight and 6AM.

这真的能阻止任何不良行为发生吗？

Does that really stop, you know, any bad behavior from happening?

那些不良行为只会发生在晚上11点。

That bad behavior will just happen at 11PM.

在我看来，佛罗里达州在财务方面说得有道理，因为他们需要的不仅仅是一张超速罚单。

In my opinion, Florida has a point both on the financial side because they need more than a speeding ticket.

而且真正的根本问题是，他们需要改变网上的儿童安全措施。

And the real root cause of this is they need to change child safety practices online.

所以这可能才是更大的财务问题，我们稍后可以详细讨论。

So that could be the bigger deal financially, which we can get into in a little bit.

Lou，我想在这里引入一个类比，因为我想到Meta Platforms正在发生的事情，以及由此可能引发的使用变化。

Lou, I wanted to bring in a little bit of an analogy here as I think about what's going on with Meta Platforms and the potential changes in usage kinda spurred on by this.

如果我们回到1998年，那时政府起诉了大烟草公司。

If we go back to 1998 was when the government sued Big Tobacco.

菲利普·莫里斯是当时的大公司。

Philip Morris was the big name there.

但和解是在1998年达成的。

But that settlement happened in 1998.

吸烟要变得非常普遍还需要一段时间。

It took a while for smoking to become something that was very common.

我小时候，餐厅里还有吸烟区。

There was smoking sections in restaurants when I was growing up.

如果你三十岁，你可能根本不知道我在说什么。

If you're 30, you probably have no idea what I'm talking about.

但今天，这已经是一个非常非常不同的行业了，因为从文化上讲，吸烟本身已经改变了。

But today, it's just a very, very different business because culturally, smoking itself changed.

我在想，我们是不是正处在一个社交媒体本身会为下一代发生改变的时刻。

And I'm wondering if we're at a maybe at a moment where social media itself is going to change for this next generation coming up.

智能手机出来的时候，我们都已经有点年纪了。

We're all we're a little bit older when smartphones came out.

也许我们上瘾了。

Maybe we're addicted.

我觉得那些在这些限制措施和副作用还不为人知的时候长大的孩子们。

I think the kids who came out when some of these curbs were not as well known, some of the side effects were not as well known.

也许，你知道，他们在社交媒体上花了太多太多时间。

Maybe, you know, spending a little bit too much too much time on social media.

我的孩子们还小。

My kids are young.

他们短时间内不会用这些东西。

They are not using any of this stuff anytime soon.

所以菲利普·莫里斯在2000年在美国的收入是220亿美元，而去年在美洲是49亿美元，下降了超过75%。

So Philip Morris in 2000 generated $22,000,000,000 in revenue in The US alone, and last year it was 4,900,000,000, down over 75 percent in The Americas.

卢，我们是不是可能到了一个节点，Meta平台在文化上真的要变了？

Are we potentially at a point, Lou, where Meta Platforms just culturally is going to change?

如果我们十年或二十年后回头看，我们会说，天哪，2026年的时候，人们每天花好几个小时在Instagram上，我们现在不这么做了，因为我们知道这对我们一般没什么好处。

And if we look back ten or twenty years from now, we're gonna go, man, back in 2026, people were spending hours a day on Instagram, and we just don't do that anymore because we know it's not generally good for us.

我觉得新奇感会随着时间消退。

I think the novelty value deteriorates over time.

所以我认为社交媒体可能不会永远这么火。

So I think it might be that social media is not massive forever.

我不确定这次和解会不会成为转折点，还是说这只是自然而然会发生的事。

I'm not sure if this settlement will be, like, the tipping point or if that's just gonna happen.

总之，是的，这有点像我们在训练孩子们，然后等他们成年后会使用，但实际上并不是这样，因为我们还是让孩子们花很多时间在上面。

Anyway, yeah, it's sort of the same where we're training kids, and then as adults, they'll use it, but it's not really because we're still giving the kids hours on it.

大多数孩子，就像马特说的，总有办法绕过限制。

Most kids, like like Matt said, there's ways around it.

大多数孩子都有不止一个Instagram账号，家长们，如果你们没意识到这一点，去查查吧，因为你们的孩子很可能有。

Most kids have more than one Instagram account, and parents, if you don't realize that, check because your kid probably does.

所以并不是说我们要，第一，试图阻止18岁以下的人上瘾，第二，真正限制孩子们接触这些。

So it's not like we are going to, a, try and stop the addiction for those 18 and, b, really limit exposure to kids.

所以我觉得这不是一回事。

So I don't think it's the same thing.

但另一方面，是的，奥驰亚，也就是以前的菲利普·莫里斯，现在收入规模小多了。

The other side of that, though, too, is is that, yes, Altria, the former Philip Morris, is a much smaller company now by revenue.

但自从和解协议签署以来，按总回报计算，这些股票上涨了2000%。

But since that settlement was signed, on a total return basis, those shares are up 2000%.

好吧，让我们来补充一点背景信息。

Well, let's put a little bit of context on that.

我记得那时候，股票的交易价格大概是市盈率的两三倍，那是在2000年或2001年，那时候他们正在回购股票。

I believe shares were trading for something like two or three times earnings back in thousand or 2001, and that's when they were buying back shares.

说得对。

Point taken.

但是，总回报也很重要，因为作为一只股票，它已经跑输了标普500。

But, also, the total return matters here because it has lost to the S and P 500 as just a stock.

但如果按总回报来算，它已经翻了一倍多。

But on a total return basis, it's more than double.

重点是，奥驰亚的基数可能更小，但他们持续产生大量现金。

The point being that Altria might have a smaller base, but they continue to generate a ton of cash.

META也产生大量现金。

META also generates a lot of cash.

他们对这些现金的用途不同。

They have different uses for it.

所以作为投资者，我不认为这只股票会像奥驰亚那样变成一个纯粹的高收益投资标的。

So I don't think this as an investor, I expect the stock to just turn into a great income play the way Altria is.

但这对奥驰亚来说改变了世界，但肯定没有让公司失去活力。

But it changed the world for Altria, but it certainly didn't neuter the company.

马特，这会不会被视为一个转折点，从根本上改变我们对社交媒体的看法？

Matt, will this be kind of seen as a tipping point that fundamentally changes how we view social media?

嗯，这就是为什么我喜欢你拿菲利普·莫里斯做比较，因为长期来看，伤害菲利普·莫里斯的不仅仅是法律结果。

Well, here's why I like your Philip Morris comparison because it wasn't just the legal outcome that you talked about that hurt Philip Morris in the long run.

还有禁烟令。

We had smoking bans.

我住在卡罗来纳州的烟草产区，那里餐馆的吸烟区一直到2010年都存在。

I mean, I live in kind of tobacco country in the Carolinas where smoking sections in restaurants were a thing till 2010.

所以30岁的人还记得那些。

So people 30 remember them.

但真正限制的是对烟草公司的营销限制。

But it was the marketing restrictions that were placed on cigarette companies.

我年轻的时候，他们还能在报纸上登整版广告。

They used to be able to put full page advertisements in the newspaper when I was younger.

还有消费税，以及我们后来看到的逐步实施的广泛禁烟令，甚至包括在公共街道上的禁烟。

There is the excise taxes, the wide scale smoking bans that we've seen gradually be, been put into place even on public streets since then.

这些才是真正让吸烟率下降的原因。

Those are what really helped kill smoking.

不仅仅是法律和解协议。

It wasn't just the legal settlement settlements.

关键在于，这次的法律和解并不会真正伤害到Meta。

And the point is it's not the legal settlement here that's going to hurt Meta at all in this case.

但如果他们被迫采取更多措施来防止儿童和青少年在平台上的不安全行为，那影响可就大多了。

But if they're forced to do more to prevent unsafe behavior by children and teenagers on their platform, it could be a much bigger deal.

看看游戏公司Roblox的情况，这就是一个很好的例子。

And if you look at what's been going on with Roblox, the gaming company, it's a great example of this.

他们一直在加强儿童安全管控，我最近对Roblox股价下跌的赞赏程度，超过了以往对任何股票因正确原因下跌的赞赏，因为我觉得我们都会同意，这是一个崇高的目标。

They've been really escalating their child safety controls, which I've never applauded a stock going down for the right reasons as much as I have Roblox recently because that's I think we'd all agree that it's a noble goal.

你知道，他们确实为了儿童安全，放弃了很多短期增长和利润。

You know, they really are giving up a lot of near term growth and profitability in the interest of child safety.

现在，Meta 被迫这么做，他们平台上的青少年，今天并不是广告商的主要目标。

Now, Meta's forced to do that, the teenagers on their platform, they're not the advertisers' big targets today.

他们也不是最活跃的用户。

They're not the most engaged users.

但就像烟草公司一样，他们是未来四十年的漏斗顶端。

But just like with the cigarette companies, they're the top of the funnel for the next forty years.

如果 Meta 真的必须对他们有所收敛，而他们转向 TikTok 或 YouTube 作为主要互动平台，那才是更大的问题。

If Meta really has to pull back on them and they go to TikTok or YouTube as their primary source of engagement, that could be the bigger deal here.

或者，天哪，去做一些不是社交媒体的事。

Or heaven forbid, do something that's not social

或者

media or

手机。

a phone.

对。

Yeah.

出去走走，稍微活动一下。

Go go outside a little bit.

我们看看能不能让我家孩子也多出去活动活动。

We'll we'll see if I can get my kids to do that a little bit more.

再补充一点关于菲利普·莫里斯的数据，因为我觉得这个对比确实很有意思。

A little bit more context on the Philip Morris numbers because I do think that's a fascinating contrast.

在2025年过去的一年里，菲利普·莫里斯只有大约10%的收入来自美洲。

Over the past year in 2025, Philip Morris only generated about 10% of their revenue in The Americas.

所以那种文化转变确实发生了，而且那是个标志性事件，但你说得对，马特。

So the cultural shift that happened and that was sort of the touchstone, but you're right, Matt.

那是一个，你知道的，持续几十年的过程，吸烟在美国逐渐变得不那么酷了。

That was a, you know, multi decade process of smoking declining in coolness, I would say, in The US.

但在世界其他地方并没有这样。

That has not happened throughout the world.

去年去法国，看到那里的人还是大量吸烟，真是让人惊讶。

It was fascinating going to France last year and seeing how much people still smoke.

这在我们这里真的不常见，尤其是在美国北部，我所在的烟草产区。

That's just not something that we see, especially in the northern parts of The US where I'm in tobacco country.

不过我们看看接下来会怎么样。

But we'll see what happens with this.

我觉得这可能会成为我们以后回顾时有点纠结的事情，比如，哦，这算是一个转折点吗？

I think this may be something that we look back on with a little bit more consternation about, oh, was this a turning point?

如果你对此有想法，欢迎通过 podcast@fool.com 联系我们。

If you have thoughts on this, we'd love to hear from you at podcast@fool.com.

我们会在接下来的几周里把你加入到讨论中。

We'll get you in the discussion over the next couple of weeks.

回来之后，我们要聊聊苹果新任CEO约翰·特努斯上任初期的表现。

When we come back, we are gonna talk about the first days of Apple's new CEO, John Ternus.

稍后会有更多相关内容。

More on that in a moment.

欢迎回来。

Welcome back.

库比蒂诺今天是个大日子，因为约翰·特努斯今天正式成为CEO。

Big day in Cupertino because John Ternus is officially CEO today.

昨天是蒂姆·库克执掌公司的最后一天，我认为他是我们见过的、尤其是非创始人CEO中，最成功的之一。

Yesterday marked the end of Tim Cook's time running the company, one of the most successful runs I think that we've ever had for a CEO, particularly who was not a founder of a company.

但是，卢，当我们展望约翰·特努斯执掌苹果的未来，你觉得他在未来一到三年内需要做些什么，才能开个好头呢？

But Lou, as we look forward to John Ternus' time running Apple, what does he need to do over, let's say, the next one to three years to kick this off on the right foot?

这可是个大难题。

Big shoes to fill.

对吧？

Right?

几乎和蒂姆·库克当年接任时一样难，这已经很说明问题了。

Almost as big as the shoes Tim Cook had to fill, which is saying something.

库克确实非常出色。

Cook was just remarkable.

有意思的是，特努斯被看作是产品型人才回归CEO职位。

And it's interesting because Ternus is being hailed as a return of a product guy to the CEO office.

这个投资者群体还是有点怀念史蒂夫·乔布斯那种‘还有一件事’的惊喜。

This is an investor base that still kind of pines for that Steve Jobs one more thing.

就像，哇，再给我们带来点新玩意儿吧。

Like, oh, amaze us with some new gadget.

但在蒂姆·库克时代，这种情况并没有出现。

That hasn't been the case under Tim Cook.

我觉得这不能怪蒂姆·库克。

I don't think that's Tim Cook's fault.

我觉得只是手机已经相当好了，很难再被替代。

I think just the phone was pretty good, and it's hard to replace it.

但那种魅力依然存在，人们希望它能回来。

But still, there is that allure that people are hoping comes back.

而且下周，也就是9月9日，我们就要迎来一场大型产品发布会，这有点像，嘿。

And we have a massive product event coming up just next week, September 9, which is kinda, hey.

别紧张，伙计。

No pressure guy.

现在你看。

Now look.

按理说，蒂姆·库克不会让他的继任者一上来就失败。

Presumably, Tim Cook didn't set his replacement up to fail.

我猜苹果肯定有些有意思的东西要讲，不管是折叠手机，还是Siri的重新启动。

I would assume that Apple has some interesting things to talk about, whether it's a foldable phone, just the Siri reboot.

所以我确实觉得

So I do think

会有大幅涨价。

there Massive price increases.

对。

Yeah.

嘿。

Hey.

那也行。

That that works.

但从长远来看，我觉得市场应该明白，产品线会是重点，而且让一个产品出身的人来掌舵，谁知道他们会想出什么新东西。

But, like, longer term, and I think the market should understand this, the pipeline will be a focus, and all this talk to a product guy being in charge, who knows what they'll come up with.

但我猜，Ternus 的成败会取决于他能不能像 Tim Cook 那样，而不是像 Steve Jobs 那样。

But my guess is Ternus will be judged on his ability to kind of follow Tim Cook and not Steve Jobs.

我这么说是什么意思呢。

And here's what I mean about that.

供应链从来没有像现在这么复杂过。

The supply chain has never been more complex.

因为 AI 和其他因素，零部件成本涨得厉害。

We have component costs going crazy because of AI and all of that.

还有贸易战。

We have trade wars.

全球各地都在出台法规，限制我们怎么用手机、App Store 能做什么。

We have global regulations looking at how we use our phones and the App Store and what they can do.

这些无聊又繁琐的事情，正是 Tim Cook 擅长的。

All of that boring tedious stuff that Tim Cook mastered.

我觉得苹果未来十年不会靠什么花哨的新品来惊艳大家。

I don't think the next ten years for Apple is going to be about some flashy new one more thing.

我觉得就是肯·特纳斯卷起袖子，干库克干过的那种苦活。

I think it's gonna be Ken Ternus just roll up his sleeves and do some of that hard work that Cook did.

马特，苹果最近做的一件有趣的事，就是在人工智能方面，别人都往一个方向走，它偏偏往另一个方向走。

Matt, one of the interesting things that Apple has done recently is kinda zig while everyone else is zagging with relation to artificial intelligence.

那这是不是他很快就要回答的一个大问题？

So is that a huge question that he's gonna have to answer pretty quickly?

说到卢的观点，我真希望他能发布下一代iPhone。

To Lou's point, I would love for him to roll out the next iPhone.

据报道，苹果正在开发一些智能家居产品。

Reportedly, Apple's developing some smart home products.

他们还在开发机器人。

They're developing robots.

如果他们能比SpaceX或特斯拉（不管是谁在做机器人）更早上市，那不是很酷吗？

Wouldn't it be cool if they got to market before, SpaceX or Tesla, whichever one's doing the robots?

但是，你知道，我不指望那个。

But, you know, I'm not counting on that.

他确实需要证明你提到的那个轻资产AI策略是可行的。

He really needs to show that what you're referring to, the asset light AI strategy can work.

所以苹果的资本支出非常低。

So Apple has extremely light CapEx.

再说一次，我们说非常低，但这里谈的是几十亿美元。

Again, we're saying extremely light when we're talking about billions of dollars here.

我们在这里对这些数字有点保守，毕竟涉及的是数千亿美元。

We're kinda of standoffish about these numbers here, when it comes to hundreds of billions of dollars.

但跟Meta、Alphabet、亚马逊、微软相比，苹果的支出非常非常低。

But compared with like Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, very, very light spending.

他们的整个策略之一就是设备端AI。

Their whole strategy is on device AI for one.

他们的新款笔记本电脑设计成直接在设备上运行AI模型，而不是通过OpenAI或Claude之类的来运行。

Their new models of laptops are designed to run AI models right on the device instead of running them through, you know, OpenAI or or Claude or any of those.

如果他们能证明他们那种轻资产、低资本支出的AI策略能行得通，我大胆预测，五年后苹果会成为全球最有价值的公司。

If they can show that their asset light and capital light AI strategy can work, Apple is the most valuable company in the world in five years is my bold prediction.

如果不行，那就是一场资本支出和投入的竞赛，他得从后面开始追赶了。

If not, this is a CapEx race and a spending race that he's gonna have to start catching up from behind.

所以这真的就是未来三年的事。

So that's really over the next three years.

我觉得这将会是他任期内最关键的时期。

That's gonna be what I think is the defining part of his tenure.

下周开始会很有意思。

It will be an interesting start next week.

过去几年这些产品发布一直不太让人兴奋，但这次可能值得关注，因为Ternus得很快开始在公司留下自己的印记了。

These product announcements have not been incredibly exciting over the past few years, but maybe this will be one to watch because Ternus is gonna have to start putting his mark on the company pretty quickly.

一如既往，节目里的人可能对他们谈论的Motley Fool股票有兴趣，也可能有正式的推荐或反对意见，所以不要仅仅根据你听到的内容买卖股票。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about in The Motley Fool and may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人观点内容都遵循Motley Fool的编辑标准。

All personal findings content follows The Motley Fool's editorial standards.

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It is not approved by advertisers.

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我是特拉维斯·霍伊姆，与卢·怀特曼、马特·弗兰克尔和克里斯蒂·沃特沃斯一起在幕后为您播报。

For Lou Whiteman, Matt Frankel, and Kristi Waterworth behind the glass, I'm Travis Hoium.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

我们明天见。

We'll see you here tomorrow.