Bloom Energy的“通电时间”护城河

布鲁姆能源有竞争优势吗？

Does Bloom Energy have a competitive advantage?

Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资现在开始。

Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.

欢迎收听 Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是今天的主持人 Quast，今天是劳动节，所以我们不打算聊太多新闻。

I'm your host today, Quast, and today is Labor Day, which means that we're not covering a lot of news.

今天我们实际上要连续三次翻看听众来信，嘉宾是 Matt Frankel 和 Rachel Warren，我这就直接开始。

We're actually going to triple dip into our mailbag today with our guests, Matt Frankel and Rachel Warren, and I'm just gonna go right into it.

这是我们今天收到的第一个听众问题，来自 Sabir。

Here is the first mailbag question that we have for you today, and this comes from Sabir.

他说他住在奥斯汀，是这档播客的常客，这个问题是问大家的。

He says that he lives in Austin and is a regular listener of the podcast, and this question is for anyone.

在比较公司股票时，有没有一些指标能反映企业的底层结构，可能暗示它们长期会给投资者带来多少回报？

While comparing company stocks, are there metrics that speak to the underlying structure of a business, which potentially might suggest how much they would return to their investors over time?

比如说，可口可乐的投入资本回报率比标普全球和WM都高，但从历史来看，把股息再投资的话，它的回报并没有那么高。

For example, Coca Cola has higher return on invested capital than S and P Global and WM, but it hasn't returned nearly as much historically with dividends reinvested.

所以我不确定ROIC是不是该关注的指标，或者我是不是应该比较这些公司，毕竟它们属于不同的行业。

So I don't know if ROIC is the right metric to monitor, or if I should compare these businesses at all since they are in separate sectors.

但要把其中一家纳入我的投资组合，我需要假设如果投资了它们，我的钱会增长多少。

But to include one in my portfolio, I need to make assumptions about how much my money would grow if I had invested in each of them.

感谢你们提供这么棒的内容，请一直做下去。

Thanks for the amazing content, and please keep doing the same forever.

好的。

Okay.

马特，这本质上是一个关于ROIC，也就是投入资本回报率的问题，你知道，这是不是我们需要筛选的灵丹妙药，用来找到那些长期能让我们赚钱的股票？

Matt, this is essentially a question about ROIC or return on invested capital, and, you know, is this the the magic bullet that we need to screen for to find the stocks that are going to make us money over the long term?

首先，我觉得你提到的这些资本效率高的公司，选哪个都不会错。

I mean, first of I don't think you'll go wrong with any of these capital efficient businesses that you mentioned.

但是，你知道，ROIC只是拼图的一部分。

But, you know, ROIC, it's only one piece of the puzzle.

这取决于公司能否将这些高资本回报以高效的方式再投资，来发展自己的业务。

It depends whether the company can reinvest those high returns on capital in efficient ways to, you know, grow its business.

这是可口可乐面临的一个重大限制因素，就拿你刚才举的例子来说。

This is the big limiting factor for Coca Cola, just to name one of the examples you just did.

所以它没有那么多地方可以再投资到业务中去。

So it it doesn't have as many places to reinvest into its business.

它是一家庞大的公司。

It's a massive company.

它已经有了自己的分销网络。

It already has its distribution network.

它已经无处不在，这就是为什么它把那么多收益以股息的形式分配出去，而不是再投资到业务中。

It's already everywhere, and that's why it distributes so much money, so much of its returns as dividends instead of reinvesting into the business.

对。

Yeah.

这让我想起沃伦·巴菲特谈论他的喜诗糖果生意。

It reminds me of Warren Buffet talking about his See's candy business.

回报率很高，但喜诗糖果没有太多地方可以再投资这些钱，所以最后基本上就是把钱拿去投到别的地方。

The returns are great, but there's not a lot of places to reinvest that money into See's, so it winds up just kind of taking that money and reinvesting it elsewhere.

但是瑞秋，萨比尔的想法对吗？因为他想知道自己是不是应该比较这些公司，毕竟它们属于不同的行业。

But Rachel, are Sabir's instincts right here because he he's wondering if he should even compare these businesses since they're in different sectors.

你看，可口可乐、标普全球，这是证券交易所，还有废物管理公司，这是垃圾处理。

I mean, Coca- Cola, S and P Global, this is the stock exchange, waste management, this is trash.

它们做的根本不是同一类生意。

They're not in the same place of of doing business.

所以他说也许不应该比较这些公司，这个想法对吗？

So is he right to say maybe I shouldn't be comparing these?

嗯，对。

I mean, yeah.

这些公司确实是在完全不同的领域里运营。

These are businesses that are operating in very different landscapes.

而且我觉得确实有一些增长因素，你可以根据你具体投资组合的情况来比较它们。

And I do think there are certain growth factors and you can compare them in the context of what you're looking at for your specific portfolio.

我觉得投入资本回报率是一个非常重要的指标，特别是在评估那些打算长期持有买入的企业时。

And ROIC is one, I think, very important metric when you're evaluating businesses that you want to to buy and hold for the long run.

但我觉得它只是工具箱里的众多工具之一，用来考察企业如何保护和处理其现金流。

But I think that it's just one of many tools that you should have in your toolkit when you're trying to look at how a business protects and handles its cash.

还有自由现金流转化率，这也是另一个非常重要的指标。

And, you know, free cash flow conversion is another very important one.

这能告诉你，在一家公司清偿债务并维持运营后，每1美元的收入中究竟有多少转化成了现金。

I mean, this tells you really how much of every dollar in revenue turns into cash after a company, you know, addresses its liabilities and continues to maintain its operations.

确实需要综合考量多方面因素。比如，有些公司账面上的资本回报率看着很高。

And it's important to look at a wide range of factors like this Because for example, a company can have a very high return on capital on paper.

但如果这些利润没法转化成实实在在的现金流，就没法作为分红回馈给股东。

But if that profit doesn't convert into actual free cash flow, it can't be returned to you, the shareholders.

所以在我看来，ROIC（投入资本回报率）虽然是个好指标，但评估企业时，它只是众多工具中的一个。

So ROIC is great, but it should just be one of many tools you use when you're evaluating businesses, in my view.

还有，Matt你刚才提到可口可乐的一个局限，就是手里有钱却很难找到好的投资渠道来重新配置。

And, Matt, you mentioned that the limiting factor here with Coca Cola is just not really having too many places to put that money to to reinvest for good returns.

那他提到的另外两家公司呢，标普全球和废品管理公司？

What about the other two here that he mentioned, SPGI and waste management?

对，这两家公司的再投资机会要多得多。

Yeah, they both have had far more opportunities to reinvest.

就连废品管理公司，虽然很多人觉得这是个无聊又成熟的行业，但他们其实还没做到全覆盖。

Even waste management, which a lot of people think of as a boring, mature business, I mean, they're not everywhere.

他们一直在投资扩大自己的业务版图。

They've investing in growing out their footprint.

他们一直在投资最新的回收技术。

They've been investing in, you know, the latest recycling technologies.

投资机会真的非常多。

There's a lot there's there have been a lot of investment opportunities.

标普全球呢，他们不断投资建设数据资产和新的指数，这些投资回报率随着时间推移，会不断推高公司的内在价值。

SPG Global, I mean, they they reinvest in building out their data assets and and new indices, and that ROIC helps compound the business' intrinsic value over time.

这就是最大的区别。

That's the big difference here.

当然，这实际上也得到了股票长期实际回报的支持。

And, of course, then that is actually then supported by the actual returns of the stock over the long term.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，如果你看看回报，过去十五年里，可口可乐的总回报大约是327%，这是我们录制时的情况。

And I mean, if you look at the returns, I mean, over the past fifteen years, Coca Cola generated about a 327% total return as we're we're recording this.

年化收益率大约是10.2%。

That's about 10.2% annualized.

我想没人会说这是糟糕的投资，所以我才说，这些里面选哪个都不会错。

I don't think anyone would call that a bad investment, which is why I said I don't think you'll go wrong with any of these.

但如果你看看废物管理公司，过去十五年回报是779%。

But if you look at waste management, 779% over the past fifteen years.

标普全球，稍微超过1800%。

SPG Global, a little over 1800%.

区别不仅仅在于哪个资本效率更高，而在于后两家有更多的再投资机会，而这在那些回报中占了很大一部分。

And the difference has been not just that one's more capital efficient than the other, but that the latter two have more reinvestment opportunities, and that's been a big percentage of that re those returns.

所以，Rachel，我想把话题转回你这里，因为你之前说过，你一开始会看自由现金流转化率。

So, Rachel, I wanna circle back to you here because you did say that you kind of start by looking at this free cash flow conversion.

公司相对于它的收入，能产生多少自由现金流？

How much free cash flow is the company able to generate compared to its revenue?

但好，我们有了自由现金流。

But, okay, so we generate free cash flow.

现在手头有一些现金了。

Now we have some cash sitting there.

在你所谓的清单上，下一步是什么？或者说，手上有现金之后，你接下来会看什么？

What is the next thing on your so called checklist or the next thing that you're gonna look for after we have cash in hand?

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，一旦企业有了现金，我还会看另一个指标，就是股本减少。

I mean, once a business has that cash, another thing I would look at as well is share count reduction.

你知道，当一家公司持续回购自己的股票时，你的持股比例会自动增加。

You know, when you have a company that's consistently buying back its own stock, your ownership slice grows automatically.

而且，你可以回顾一下像废物管理公司和标普全球这样的例子。

And, you know, you can go back to examples of Waste Management, S and P Global.

我是说，特别是废物管理公司，他们在去年年底批准了一个30亿美元的股票回购计划。

I mean, Waste Management specifically, they had authorized a $3,000,000,000 authorization late last year.

今年上半年，他们已经回购了大约10亿美元的自有股份。

They've repurchased about a billion dollars in its own shares in the first half of this year.

所以这些公司往往比较积极地使用回购，这可以为你的长期复利增长创造良好的助力，即使营收增长看起来平平。

So these are companies that tend to use buybacks fairly aggressively that can create a nice tailwind for your long term compounding even if the top line growth looks modest.

对。

Yeah.

我，我是说，我对“积极”这个说法稍微有点不同意见。

I I mean, I pushed back on the aggressive framing just a little bit.

我是说，30亿美元确实很大，但相对于它的规模来说，废物管理公司每年只减少大约1%的股份。

I mean, 3,000,000,000 is big, but in comparison to its size, I mean, only reducing that share count by about one a year for waste management.

不过你说得有道理，再投资和回购确实能产生长期复利效应。

But still point taken, reinvesting, buybacks, so that is a long term compounding it can have a long term compounding effect.

但是Rachel，你刚才提到了再投资。

But Rachel, you mentioned a moment ago about reinvestment.

你实际上怎么衡量再投资的资金是否被有效利用呢？

How do you actually measure whether reinvested dollars are being put to good use?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得确实值得进一步探讨。

I mean, it it's definitely worth going a step further.

你要看他们保留的收益中有多少真正回流到业务中，而不是作为股息分出去，以及这些再投资资金能带来多少回报。

You wanna look at how much of their retained earnings actually go back into the business versus out the door as dividends and what return those reinvested dollars earns.

比如说，如果一家公司把80%的收益以20%的回报率再投资，那它的复利增长方式会和那些以同样回报率但只再投资20%的公司截然不同。

I mean, if you if you have a company that's say reinvesting 80% of its earnings at 20% returns, you're gonna look at a a business that's compounding very differently than one reinvesting 20% at the same return.

我觉得你刚才说的非常重要，我想让Matt再详细解释一下这些百分比。

I think that that's so important what you just said, and I want Matt to flesh that out just a little bit more here with those percentages.

Matt，Rachel刚才说的，我不想假设每个人都理解了她的话。

Matt, what is Rachel I don't want to take for granted that everyone understands what Rachel just said.

对。

Yeah.

也就是说，伯克希尔·哈撒韦的商业模式确实很巧妙，你之前提到过喜诗糖果，所以我打算再回到这个话题上聊聊。

So, I mean, this is the genius of Berkshire Hathaway's business model, which you mentioned See's Candy earlier, so I wanted to circle back to that.

你知道的，喜诗糖果并没有太多可以再投资的机会。

You know, See's Candy does not have a lot of opportunities to reinvest.

它已经是一家相当成熟的企业了。

It's a pretty mature business.

它们其实并不需要那么多额外的资金。

They don't really need that much incremental capital.

但伯克希尔旗下还有60家其他企业，可以决定把钱投到哪些效率最高的地方。

But Berkshire has 60 other businesses that it could decide which ones are the best efficient places to put that capital.

这也是伯克希尔如此成功的原因。

And that's why Berkshire's been so successful.

它现在拥有的这65家企业（或者具体多少家），所有的回报都汇入一个资金池，然后管理层再决定把钱投到哪里最划算。

All of the 65 businesses or whatever it owns now, all the the returns go into one pool, and then management can decide where the most efficient places to invest.

所以，你投资资本的效率越高，显然，像废品管理或可口可乐这样的单一业务，就会有点棘手，因为你只有一项业务可以投资。

So the the more efficiently you can invest your capital and with obviously, with one single business like a waste management or a Coca Cola, it's a little trickier because you only have one business that you're you're investing in.

所以，找到那些不仅能带来高资本回报、资本效率高，而且还有地方可以投入资本的企业，真的非常重要。

So it's really important to find businesses that not only generate great returns on capital, that are really capital efficient, but that also have places to put that capital to work.

现在很多芯片制造商就是这样，他们投入大量资金建设工厂，以提高产能。

That's a lot of the the chip makers right now, they're they're investing a ton of money in building out their factories to increase capacity.

这反过来又能让他们卖出更多的芯片。

That in turn will allow them to sell more chips.

你可以看到这个循环是如何复利的，这就是为什么现在这么多公司表现这么好，因为他们不仅有盈利的机会，还有机会把利润再投资。

And you can see where that cycle compounds, and that's why so many of those companies are are doing so well right now because they have so much opportunity to not only make profit, but to reinvest that profit.

所以，这是非常重要的一点，作为投资者，你千万不要忽视这一点。

So that's a really, really important thing that's you you don't wanna overlook that as an investor.

Rachel，你刚才提到了回购。

Rachel, you mentioned here buybacks a moment ago.

我们可以通过多种方式进行回购。

We can do buybacks in a variety of ways.

我们可以用资产负债表上的钱来支付。

We can pay for it from the balance sheet.

我们可以用现金流来支付。

We can pay for it with cash flow.

我们也可以借债。

We can take on debt.

这有关系吗？

Does it matter?

当然有关系。

It absolutely matters.

你真的需要看看这些回购是怎么融资的。

You really wanna check and see how those buybacks are being funded.

如果你看到你拥有或想拥有的公司宣布回购，这可能是好消息，但深入了解一下总是很重要的。

If you see a business you own or want to own, announce a buyback, it may be great news, but it's always important to dig a bit beneath the surface.

所以，用自由现金流支付的回购，基本上就是免费减少股本。

So, a buyback paid for with free cash flow, essentially, it's shrinking that share count for free.

但是靠堆积债务来支撑的回购，其实只是把一种形式的稀释换成了未来的财务风险。

But buybacks that are funded by piling on debt, you're really just swapping one form of dilution for financial risk down the road.

作为长期投资者，你不会希望看到公司这样做。

This isn't what you wanna be seeing a company do as a long term investor.

所以这一点真的要非常留意。

So that's something to pay really close attention to.

好的。

Okay.

最后一个问题。

Final question.

我们今天就到这里。

We're gonna wrap it up here.

你们每个人最后再说一句吧。

Just a final word from each of you.

马特，也许你可以从更定性的角度多说一点。

Maybe, Matt, a little bit more on the qualitative side.

对。

Yeah.

所以，像我们的投资资本回报率，或者任何单一指标，都只是全面分析的一部分。

So, like, our return on invested capital or any single metric for that matter is just one part of any thorough analysis.

而且很多你应该关注的因素都是定性的。

And a lot of the factors you should be looking at are qualitative.

定价能力是一个重要的因素。

Pricing power is a big one.

而可口可乐，那是它的秘密武器，它其实没有太多再投资的空间。

And Coca Cola, that's its secret sauce, doesn't really have room to reinvest.

它在竞争对手面前有很强的定价能力。

It has great pricing power over its rivals.

它有一个很好的分销网络，能帮它省钱。

It's got a great distribution network that saves it money.

所以你要问问自己，一个企业能在不损害销量的情况下提价多少？

And so ask yourself, how much can a business raise its prices without hurting volume?

你提到的废物管理公司是另一个例子。

Waste management that you mentioned is another one.

他们为客户提供的是必不可少的服务。

They offer an essential services essential service to its customers.

每个人都需要处理垃圾。

Everyone needs to get rid of their garbage.

而且他们的合同收入跟通胀挂钩。

And its contracted income is linked to inflation.

所以定价能力绝对是一个重要因素。

So pricing power is definitely a big one.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得还有一点要考虑的是，我们讨论的这些因素，都比不上价格估值。

I think that another thing to consider is, you know, all of these, factors we're talking about, nothing replaces, you know, price valuation.

即使是最好的复利机器，如果你买入时价格过高，也可能让你失望。

Even the best compound or can disappoint you if you overpay going in.

所以，当你考察这些企业或其他公司时，一定要把业务质量和你实际为未来现金流、利润所支付的价格进行权衡。你可以使用自己偏好的估值指标，但务必确保它已经融入到你整体的投资逻辑中。

So make sure when you're looking at these businesses or others, you know, weigh the quality of the business against what you're actually paying for those future cash flows, profits, you know, use your preferred valuation metric, but make sure that that is baked into your overall thesis.

好的。

Alright.

那么，Sabir，非常感谢你提出这个问题。

So, Sabir, thank you so much for the question.

我想恭喜你。

I want to congratulate you.

我真的很欣赏你对投资有这么深入的思考。

I really like how you are thinking deeply about investing.

我觉得这种思维方式会让你在长期投资中受益匪浅，希望我们刚才的回答能切实解决你的疑问。

I think that is going to serve you over the long haul, and I hope that we did your question justice.

广告回来之后，我们将深入分析电力发电领域的一些关键数据。

When we come back from the break, we are going to be looking at some numbers that are crunching in the electricity generation space.

你正在收听的是《Motley Fool隐藏宝藏投资》节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

欢迎回到《Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资》节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

我们再次打开听众来信，这次是来自 Isaiah 的问题。

We're going back into the mailbag with a question from Isaiah.

Isaiah 说他们几乎每天收听我们的节目，已经听了将近两年。

Isaiah says that they've been a daily listener for nearly two years.

这真是太了不起了。

That is incredible.

但他们想问关于 Enphase Energy 的问题。

But they want to ask about Enphase Energy.

问题是这样的：AI 数据中心正在迅速增加对新能源和更高效电力基础设施的需求。

And the question here is, AI data centers are creating a rapidly growing need for new sources of electricity and more efficient power infrastructure.

Enphase Energy 最近进入了这个市场，推出了 IQ 固态变压器，瞄准了向更高电压直流架构和 AI 数据中心的转变，而像 Bloom Energy 这样的公司则通过现场发电来抓住这个机会。

Enphase Energy has recently entered this market with its IQ solid state transformer targeting the shift toward higher voltage DC architectures and AI data centers, while companies such as Bloom Energy are pursuing the opportunity through on-site power generation.

投资者应该如何比较这些应对 AI 电力瓶颈的不同方法呢？

How should investors compare these different approaches to the AI power bottleneck?

具体来说，Enphase的数据中心业务需要发生什么才能成为其收入和利润的重要贡献者？

Specifically, what would need to happen for Enphase's data center opportunity to become a meaningful contributor to its revenue and earnings?

而且它潜在的机会与Bloom Energy以及其他为数据中心提供发电、电网基础设施、储能和电力转换的公司相比如何？

And how does it potentially how does it potential opportunity compare with Bloom Energy and other companies providing power generation, grid infrastructure, storage, power conversion to data centers?

在未来五到十年内，哪些技术最有可能抓住这一趋势的经济效益？

Which technologies appear most likely to capture the economics of the trend over the next five to ten years?

最大的风险是什么？

What are the biggest risks?

Rachel，我们先从大局来看。

Rachel, let's start with a big picture here.

你如何看待发电瓶颈的问题？

How do you frame the bottleneck in power generation?

对。

Yeah.

我很喜欢这位听众提出的问题，因为我觉得这涉及到了目前这个领域正在发生的许多重要主题。

And I love this question from our our listener because I think that this hits on so many important themes that are happening in the space right now.

所以这个瓶颈，其实分成两个挑战。

So this bottleneck, it really comes down to a two part challenge.

一个是发电，另一个是电压转换。

You've got power generation and then voltage conversion.

我觉得作为投资者，我们可以通过看一家公司在能源供应链中的位置来评估这些不同的方案。

And I think as investors, you know, we can evaluate these different approaches by looking at where a company sits within the energy supply chain.

所以Bloom Energy，他们解决的是发电短缺的问题。

So Bloom Energy, they're tackling the generation shortage.

你知道，现在就是发电短缺。

You know, right now, the power generation shortage.

他们在现场部署固体氧化物燃料电池，让科技巨头绕过很多传统电网的排队流程。

They're deploying on-site solid oxide fuel cells, and they're letting the tech giants bypass a lot of the traditional utility grid queues.

他们马上就能提供兆瓦级的电力。

They're they're spinning up megawatts of capacity immediately.

而且因为电网排队时间很长，Bloom Energy就成了一个非常重要的角色，为需要立即用电的数据中心开发商提供快速的离网替代方案。

And because the utility grid faces really long delays, Bloom Energy has, you know, emerged as a a very important player that offers this fast off grid alternative for data center developers that need the power right now.

而Enphase Energy呢，他们瞄准的是我刚才提到的那个电压转换难题。

And Enphase Energy, on the other hand, you know, they target that conversion challenge I was talking about.

所以他们专注于在芯片层面高效地降低电压。

So they're focusing on stepping voltage down efficiently at the chip level.

好的。

Alright.

既然大家的问题都集中在Enphase身上，我们想拿一些具体数据来说明一下。

So since the question did focus a lot on Enphase, we want to put some numbers behind that.

Matt，给Enphase的故事补充一些具体数据，看看这里真正的机会在哪里。

Matt, put some numbers behind the Enphase story and what the actual opportunity is here.

对。

Yeah.

我们讨论的不是Enphase现有的业务。

So this is not talking about Enphase's existing business.

而是他们打算在数据中心领域做些什么。

This is just what it's hoping to do with data centers.

公司预计，到2031年，美国市场的总可触达规模约为11吉瓦。他们计划在今年晚些时候推出完整的系统演示，2027年进行客户试点，2028年实现批量出货。

So the company estimates a total addressable market of about 11 gigawatts of US opportunity by 2031, expects to launch full system demos late this year, customer pilots in 2027, volume shipments in 2028.

所以理解我刚才说的最好方式是：在能够占据该可触达市场中显著份额之前，还有很多环节需要顺利推进。

So the best way to think of what I just said is there's a lot that needs to go right before it can capture a significant part of that addressable market.

公司的核心业务正在收缩。

So the company's core business is contracting.

核心业务收入同比下降了20%。

Revenue in the core business was down 20% year over year.

所以它算是想借此转型，我想你是这个意思。

So it's kind of looking to this for a pivot, I guess you would say.

好，那我们就问这个问题。

Well, let's ask that.

Matt，要让Enphase的这个机会真正变得有意义，哪些环节必须顺利推进？

What does need to go right here, Matt, for Enphase two, this opportunity to actually become meaningful?

行业电压标准得成为整个行业的统一标准才行。

The industry's voltage standard would need to become the industry standard.

800伏特标准得成为行业通用标准才行。

The 800 volt standard would need to be the standard.

我刚才那句话里说了好多遍“标准”。

I said standard a lot in that sentence.

他们需要在2027年拿下大型云服务商的订单。

They would need to get a hyperscaler win in 2027.

我之前提到过，他们希望2028年开始向消费者出货，所以到时候得有足够大的客户量来消化这些产品。

I mentioned they're hoping to ship product to consumers in 2028, so they would need a big customer to ship them to.

住宅业务至少得先稳住，别再下滑了，这样才能为数据中心的那些雄心壮志提供资金支持。

And the residential business would need to stop declining at least long enough to fund all of the data center ambitions.

好的。

Okay.

那咱们接着聊聊 Bloom Energy。

So let's flip over to Bloom Energy.

这也是刚才提到的另一家公司，而且刚被纳入标普500指数，我顺便补充一下。

This is the other company that got mentioned here and just getting added to the S and P 500, I'll I'll add.

所以这个时机挺有意思的。

So that's an interesting timing.

但是，Rachel，抛开近期的故事，Bloom的长期风险情况是怎样的？

But, Rachel, what's the risk profile here once you get past the the near term story with with Bloom?

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，Bloom Energy近期确实有明显的变现顺风。

I mean, there there's clear near near term monetization tailwinds for Bloom Energy.

你知道，他们正在成为AI基础设施领域的关键玩家之一。

They are, you know, becoming one of these kind of key AI infrastructure players.

但长期来看，如果AI建设放缓，会有风险。

But there's long term risks, you know, in the event of a slowdown of the AI, build out.

如果未来几年某个时候支出缩减，你可能会看到那个增长故事放缓。

If spending scales back at some point in the next few years, you're probably gonna see a slowdown in that growth story.

这并不意味着业务不好，但这家公司因为在这个瓶颈期变得如此重要，所以在短时间内股价大幅上涨。

Doesn't mean you have a bad business, but this is a company that's seen a really significant run up in a short time because they've become such an important player, amidst this bottleneck.

而且，除了AI领域之外，还有更长期的风险，比如碳政策的变化、燃料供应的限制，以及到2030年更清洁的公用电力规模扩大。

And then, you know, outside of the AI space, you've got the the longer term risks as well from shifting carbon mandates, fuel supply constraints, as as cleaner utility power scales into the 2030.

所以不是说这是个糟糕的业务。

So not saying it's a bad business.

实际上我觉得这是一家非常有趣的公司。

I actually think it's a really fascinating company.

它在我关注名单上。

It's one I have on my watch list.

但要注意这些潜在的变化和调整，它们可能会在未来几年影响这家公司。

But be aware of these potential shifts and changes that could impact the company in the years ahead.

Matt，我觉得看这个领域，有很多玩家在追逐这么大的机会，但竞争相当激烈。

Matt, I guess as I I look at this space, I mean, there are so many players chasing such a big opportunity, but it is quite competitive.

Bloom有什么护城河吗？

Does Bloom have any sort of of moat?

而且，这家公司吸引了很多投资者的关注，所以股价似乎已经上涨了不少。

And, you know, this is a company that's attracting a lot of attention from investors, so it seems like the stock has run up.

这个估值让你担心吗？

Does the valuation here concern you at all?

是的。

Yeah.

其实这两家公司完全是两种不同的类型。

So these companies, they're two different animals, really.

它们都有各自的竞争优势。

They both kinda have competitive moats.

Bloom已经证明了它的护城河。

Bloom has proven its moat.

Bloom的护城河在于它能比替代方案更快地提供电力。

Bloom's moat is providing power quicker than it's the alternatives.

它可以在九十天或更短的时间内部署解决方案。

It can deploy solutions in ninety days or less.

相比之下，新建数据中心接入电网需要好几年的时间。

Compare that with multiyear timelines to connect to a grid when you're building a new data center.

他们有200亿美元的积压订单。

They have a $20,000,000,000 backlog.

其中只有60亿是产品。

Only 6,000,000,000 of that is product.

剩下的都是服务收入，这才是真正的机会所在。

The rest is service revenue, and that's the real opportunity here.

Bloom的股票存在很大的估值风险。

There's lots of valuation risk with Bloom stock.

我是说，远期市盈率高达80倍。

I mean, 80 times forward earnings.

你知道，一年内涨了大约500%。

It's, you know, up about 500% in one year.

Bloom现在就在把机会变现。

Bloom is monetizing its opportunity today.

Enphase则是2028年的一个期权，押注的是一家正在萎缩但市场机会非常好的公司。

Enphase is a 2028 option on on a shrinking company that has a really good market opportunity.

好的。

Alright.

那我们开始聊聊这个市场机会吧。

Well, let's start thinking about that market opportunity a little bit.

Rachel，如果有人想参与这个趋势，但又不想押注某个特定的芯片架构或技术，你会推荐他们关注什么？

Rachel, for someone who wants exposure to this trend without betting on a a specific chip architecture or a specific technology, where would you point them?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得有几个方向可以看，但关键是要评估一下物理电网基础设施、独立电力生产商、工业储能供应商这些，看看它们是从哪里来的。

I think there's a few places you can look, but really evaluate, you know, where that physical grid infrastructure, the independent power producers, the industrial storage providers, you know, where they're coming from.

比如那些制造高压电缆、变压器和开关设备的公司。

I mean, companies manufacturing the high voltage cables, transformers, and switch gear.

伊顿就是一个例子。

Eaton is one company that comes to mind.

施耐德电气也是。

Schneider Electric as well.

这些公司拥有非常有利的多年积压订单。

I mean, these are companies that possess really favorable multiyear backlogs.

它们不依赖于哪种具体的芯片架构胜出。

They don't depend on which specific chip architecture wins.

而且我认为，这个领域也让公用事业提供商受益，它们通过直接购电协议控制着大量能源资产。

And this is also, I think, a landscape that's benefiting, utility providers as well that are controlling a lot of the energy assets through these direct power purchase agreements.

最根本的制约因素仍然是那些由数据中心开发商持有的、连接着物理光纤的房地产，这些开发商在未来几年内，在持续建设之前，就确保了土地和电力分配。

The foundational constraint is still that physical fiber connected real estate that's held by data center developers who secure land and power allocations over the coming years and in advance of the continued build out.

所以，根据你的风险承受能力和偏好，有很多方式可以参与这个领域。

So there are a lot of ways to play this space that can depend on your risk tolerance and your preference.

对。

Yeah.

而且，你刚才谈到了三到五年的情况。

And, I mean, you're kinda talking a little bit about the three to five year.

那么，更长远来看，我们应该怎么考虑呢？

I mean, how do we think about it further out?

我是说，我觉得如果你往未来五到十年看，很多持久的经济收益最终会被那些提供实体基础设施的公司、能源资产持有者以及土地开发商所获得。

I mean, I think if you look ahead five, ten years, you know, I think a lot of the durable economics are gonna be really captured by the physical infrastructure providers, the energy asset owners, the land developers.

而且我认为这又回到了这些受到严格监管的、有合同保障的积压订单上。

And I think this is, again, going back to these very regulated, you know, contracted backlogs.

好的。

Alright.

所以，感谢 Isaiah 提出这个问题，也希望你在接下来的时间里继续关注这个领域。

So thank you, Isaiah, for that question writing in, and, I hope that you will keep an eye on the space as we move forward.

稍后回来，我们将继续探讨关于万亿美元IPO的另一个问题。

When we come back, we are taking another question regarding trillion dollar IPOs.

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You're listening to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

欢迎回到Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

简单提一下，我们当然希望让您参与到对话中来，特别是一期‘三袋邮件’特辑。不过，如果您有任何股票或投资方面的问题想问节目中的任何嘉宾，都可以发送邮件至podcast@fool.com。

A quick note, we obviously wanna make you part of the conversation with a triple bag mailbag episode, but if you have a stock or investing question for anyone on the show, you can email us at podcast@fool.com.

我们很乐意在节目中回答大家的问题，只要问题够短能念出来、足够有趣，并且大家记得我们不能提供个性化的投资建议。

We'd love to take your questions on air when they are short enough to read, when they are foolish, and when you keep in mind that we can't give personalized investing advice.

如果你符合这三个条件，就把问题发到 podcast@fool.com，邮箱是 podcast@fool.com。

You can check those three boxes, then send in your questions to podcast@fool.com, podcast@fool.com.

最后这个问题来自新加坡的听众 Mike，他提到 SpaceX 上市是个巨大的变量，对他持有的像 Alphabet 和 Rocket Lab 这样的股票产生了不小的波动影响。

And our final question today, this comes from a listener named Mike living in Singapore, who writes the SpaceX IPO is as a huge disruptor having a pretty volatile effect on stocks I was holding such as Alphabet and Rocket Lab.

团队觉得 Anthropic 或者 OpenAI 如果上市，会不会也有类似的影响呢？

Does the team think that an anthropic or OpenAI IPO will have the same effect?

现在持有、卖出，还是以后再买回来，哪个更明智呢？

And would it be wise to hold or sell now or buy back later?

非常感谢。

Thanks so much.

那么，马特，我们先从你开始吧。

So, Matt, let's start with you here.

我们来聊聊迈克提到的那个 SpaceX IPO 到底发生了什么。

And let's talk about what actually did happen with the SpaceX IPO that Mike is referencing here.

对。

Yeah.

所以SpaceX，这是迄今为止历史上最大的一次IPO，而且正如你所说，最初几周波动非常剧烈。

So SpaceX, it was the largest IPO in history so far, and it was extremely volatile in the first few weeks as you mentioned.

几天之内股价就涨到了每股226美元。

It was up to $226 a share within a few days.

然后它又跌回了IPO价格以下一段时间，那个价格是1.35美元。

Then it has it since dipped back below its IPO price for a little while, which was $1.35.

现在又稍微涨了一点。

Now it's up a little bit.

它产生了一些连锁反应。

It had some ripple effects.

我的意思是，你提到的Rocket Lab，在IPO前一周下跌了18%，IPO当天又下跌了10%。

I mean, Rocket Lab, you mentioned, fell 18% the week before the IPO, fell another 10% on IPO day.

所以这表明当时存在一些板块轮动。

So that suggests that there was some sector rotation going on.

这只是噪音。

This was noise.

并不是真正的重新定价。

It wasn't a real repricing.

不是因为大家都对火箭实验室失去了信心。

It wasn't because everyone was giving up on Rocket Lab.

而是因为，你知道，太空经济领域有一定数量的投资资金，现在有了更多去处。

It was because there was a, you know, an x amount of of investment dollars in the space economy, and now it had more places to go.

我是说，SpaceX几乎立即进入纳斯达克100指数，这几乎是前所未有的事情，那当然也是一个破坏性因素。

I mean, the almost immediate entry of SpaceX into the Nasdaq one hundred is something that almost that's never happened before, and that was certainly a disruptive force as well.

所以你说得对。

So you you're right.

你确实看到了很多干扰，但这些都是短期的噪音和波动，并不是什么长期的根本性变化。

You're you're seeing a lot of disruption, but it was all near term kinda noise and volatility, not, you know, anything long term fundamentally changing.

好的。

Okay.

所以我觉得Mike的意思是，SpaceX上市了，搞了个大IPO。

So I I it seems like what Mike is saying here is that SpaceX went public, huge IPO.

这就产生了一种连锁反应。

It there was a ripple effect.

因此，当OpenAI和Anthropic也上市时，可能会引发类似的连锁效应。

Therefore, when OpenAI and Anthropic go public, there could be a similar ripple effect.

所以问题基本上就是，我现在要不要先卖掉，等后面再买回来，顺势操作一下这个时机？

And so the question basically is, should I sell now, buy back later, and kind of play the timing of this all?

Rachel，你怎么看？

Rachel, what do you think?

我理解作为投资者的这种想法。

I I understand that, that inclination as an investor.

我的回应是，试图通过现在卖出持仓、打算稍后买回来以择时市场，

My my response would be, you know, attempting to time the market by selling holdings now with the intention of buying back later.

这通常对长期投资者不利。

It is a strategy that rarely favors long term investors.

而且，这还没提到频繁买卖仓位会带来税务摩擦的问题。

And, you know, that doesn't even mention the fact that trading in and out of positions can introduce tax friction.

显然，还有交易成本。

Obviously, there's execution costs.

这种策略还要求投资者在两个方面都判断正确：一次是卖出时，一次是重新买入时。

It's also a strategy that as an investor sort of forces you to be right two times, one time on the exit and one time on the reentry.

而且，如果市场反应和预期不一样——这经常发生——或者有IPO引发整个板块立即持续上涨，情况就更复杂了。

And if the market reacts differently than expected as it often does or if there there's an IPO that triggers an immediate sustained sector rally as well.

反过来，股票也可能完全脱离原来的走势。

On the flip side, you know, a stock can move away entirely.

所以，这不是我会推荐的策略。

So that would not be a a strategy that I would favor.

好，那我们再深入看看这个问题的前提。

Well, and let's further examine the premise of the question.

对吧？

Right?

就因为SpaceX上市有连锁反应，这也不一定就适用于Anthropic的IPO，对吧？

Just because there are ripple effects with SpaceX IPO, I mean, that doesn't necessarily carry over to anthropic or IPO, or or does it?

对。

Yeah.

没错。

That's right.

我来稍微澄清一下这些动态。

I mean, just to kinda clarify those dynamics.

所以，SpaceX上市了。

So you have the SpaceX IPO.

显然，这对Rocket Lab造成了行业内的震动。

Obviously, this caused an industry specific shakeup for Rocket Lab.

两家公司在同一个太空经济领域竞争。

Both companies compete within the same space economy.

它们都是那里的关键参与者。

They're both key players there.

现在看看即将到来的Anthropic和OpenAI上市，你可能不会看到对Rocket Lab产生同样的影响。

Now looking at the impending Anthropic and OpenAI listings, you're probably not gonna see that same impact on Rocket Lab.

我觉得这种资金轮动的风险可能更适用于大型科技公司，比如Alphabet和亚马逊。

I'd say the rotation risk might be more applicable to the big tech providers, you know, Alphabet and Amazon.

原因在于，我们可能会看到机构基金经理减持一部分这些传统持仓，以便腾出资金来配置更多纯AI领域的投资。

And the reason for this is we might see institutional fund managers trim a portion of those legacy holdings to to free up capital for more pure play AI allocation.

所以，你知道，如果这种轮动真的发生，我不会试图通过提前卖出而试图超越市场。

So, you know, I wouldn't try to outsmart this rotation if it happens by selling early.

我认为，如果你同时投资了这两家公司，任何对Alphabet或亚马逊的暂时压力都可以被视为一个买入窗口，以相对折扣的价格买入股票。

I think if anything, you know, as an investor in both these companies, I'm saying this, you know, one could treat that that any temporary pressure that might occur on Alphabet or Amazon as a buying window to pick up shares at a relative discount.

嗯，看起来Anthropic会先上市，就目前的情况来看。

Well, it seems like Anthropic is gonna be the one that goes public first, just based on where we are right now.

Anthropic可能今年上市，而OpenAI似乎更像是明年。

Anthropic may be going public this year, OpenAI it seems more like next year.

对。

Yeah.

马特，关于Anthropic的IPO，我们目前知道些什么？

Matt, what do we know so far about the Anthropic IPO?

嗯，在OpenAI和Anthropic之间，不仅Anthropic看起来会先上市，而且根据目前的信息，它的规模也会大得多。

Well, out of OpenAI and Anthropic, not only is Anthropic looking like it's going to go first, but it looks like it's going be much larger just based on what we know now.

据报道，这家公司目标估值是2万亿美元，或者更高。

The company, it was reported, they're targeting a 2,000,000,000 or a $2,000,000,000,000 or higher valuation.

说到IPO时提到“万亿”这个词，还真需要适应一下。

It takes them getting used to to say the word trillion when you're talking about IPOs.

而且他们计划筹集的资金比SpaceX的IPO还要多，SpaceX当时筹集了750亿美元。

And they they aim to raise even more money than SpaceX did, which that was $75,000,000,000 in its IPO.

我的意思是，这里面有几个有趣的动态。

I mean, there there's a few interesting dynamics.

刚才的问题特别提到了Alphabet。

The the question mentioned Alphabet specifically.

Alphabet持有Anthropic大约15%的股份。

Alphabet owns about 15% of anthropic.

亚马逊也持有不少Anthropic的股份。

Amazon owns a lot of anthropic as well.

所以我们可能会看到资金从这两家公司轮动到Anthropic，因为目前很多人都是通过这两家来间接投资Anthropic的。

So we may see some sector rotation out of both of these and into anthropic because right now, they're the way that a lot of people are playing anthropic in the public markets.

不过，说到板块轮动，尤其是这些大票，Alphabet目前是我最看好的七大科技股之一。

But, I mean, any sector rotation, especially in those names, there's nothing Alphabet is specifically is my favorite mag seven stock to buy right now.

所以如果出现任何板块轮动，我都会视为弱势信号。

So any I would treat any sector rotation as weakness.

再说一遍，会有波动，但我会在这种情况发生时寻找机会。

Again, expect volatility, but I I'm looking for opportunities when this this kind of thing happens.

你提到这一点，我真的很高兴。

I'm so glad that you mentioned that personally.

我觉得Alphabet和亚马逊是我在七大科技股中最喜欢的两家，所以我会密切关注。

I think Alphabet and Amazon are my two favorite of the mag seven, so I'll be watching that.

好了，Rachel，回到你这边。

But, Rachel, back to you here.

与其试图把握市场时机，就像我们说的，这不是我们在The Motley Fool最喜欢的策略，投资者应该怎么做呢？

Instead of maybe trying to time the market, like we said, not our favorite strategy here at The Motley Fool, what should investors do instead?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得，一如既往，与其猜测短期价格波动，不如关注这些公司生态系统的财务健康状况。像Anthropic和OpenAI即将公开的财务信息，可以给我们提供一些这方面的见解。

I mean, I think as always, really instead of guessing on on short term price swings, focusing on the financial health of the ecosystem of these companies, the upcoming public disclosures for, the likes of Anthropic and OpenAI can provide some insight into that.

而且这也能帮助投资者在市场出现强劲机会时，建立有根据的仓位。

And that also helps investors build grounded positions when the market presents a strong opportunity to do so.

你知道，回到Matt刚才说的，也值得记住，你可能已经在这方面有敞口了。

You know, just to kinda go back to something Matt was saying, it's also worth remembering that you may already have exposure here.

如果你持有Alphabet或亚马逊的股票，你实际上已经间接持有了这部分。在考虑未来任何IPO购买之前，要把这个因素考虑进去，并纳入你整体投资组合的计划中。

If you own shares of Alphabet or Amazon, you already hold an indirect stake factor that in, you know, before you look at any future IPO purchase and, you know, factor that into your overall plans for your portfolio.

好的，Matt。

Alright, Matt.

最后说一句。

Final word.