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这周，数据中心成了众矢之的。
This week, data centers became the enemy.
Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资节目现在开始。
Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing starts now.
欢迎收听 Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资节目。
Welcome to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.
我是 Travis Hoium，今天和我一起的是 Lou Whiteman。
I'm Travis Hoium joined today by Lou Whiteman.
还有一位从加拿大远道而来的嘉宾，讽刺的是他其实在我南边，所以如果你想聊地理，我们也可以聊聊。
And all the way from Canada, which ironically is he's south of me, so we can have a geography discussion if you want.
他就是 Jim Gillies。
But Jim Gillies.
Jim，欢迎来到节目。
Jim, welcome to the show.
谢谢。
Thank you.
好久不见了，Travis。
It's been a while, Travis.
我们有很多话题要聊。
We've got we've got a lot to talk about.
市场上发生了很多事情。
There's there's a lot going on in the market.
我们确实想聊聊数据中心的消息，但现在正好是财报的淡季。
We do wanna get to the news on data centers, but this is sort of a quiet time for earnings.
所以这是个机会，可以稍微从更宏观的角度来看问题。
So it's an opportunity to kinda take some bigger picture looks.
这周有趣的事情之一就是利率的动向。
And one of the interesting things this week was what's going on with interest rates.
在进入那些戏剧性的话题之前，我想先开始聊这个。
And I wanna start before we get into kind of some of the drama.
Lou，为什么利率对投资者和经济特别重要？
Lou, why do interest rates matter particularly for investors in the economy?
哇。
Wow.
这可是个大问题，Travis。
Big question, Travis.
这是不是那个……
Is this is this that the
我就随便说说，别紧张。
only I'll just No pressure.
把这个问题抛给你了。
Lob that one over to you.
那为什么利率重要，或者说，现在这个水平，你知道的，为什么重要？
So so why do interest rates matter or why do the current, you know, heights?
利率之所以重要，是因为你看，利息是经济的润滑剂，你为钱付出的成本最终决定了你能用这笔钱做多少事。
Interest rates matter because, look, interest money is the lubricant of the economy, and what you pay for money at the end of the day determines what you can how much you can do with the money.
所以这就是我们关注这些的原因。
So that's why we follow this stuff.
你看。
Look.
现在，很多人都在讨论利率比之前高了。
Right now, there's a lot being made about interest rates being higher than they were.
确实，利率比之前高了一些，但你看。
They are higher than they have been, yes, for a while, but look.
它们还是远低于七十年代、八十年代和九十年代的水平，那时候企业和消费者还有所有人都找到了办法。
They're still way below where they were in the seventies, the eighties, and nineties, and somehow companies and consumers and everyone found a way.
我觉得现在对利率的恐慌有点过头了，因为钱本来就应该有成本。
I think some of the current panic about current rates is overdone because money should cost something.
钱不应该是免费的。
Money shouldn't be free.
而且，
And as
你的意思是，2010年代和2020年代初的情况不正常？
You you mean the two thousand tens and early twenty twenties was not normal?
嗯，作为投资者，我觉得我们发现了，或者说我们大家共同发现了，当钱免费时会发生什么问题。
Well, and as an investor, I think we I I found out or or we collectively found out the problems of what happens when money is free.
很多糟糕的想法就会冒出来。
A lot of bad ideas get going.
所以从某种程度上说，一个不错的4%或5%的利率确实能起到某种过滤作用，我不想说这是废话过滤器，但我想我刚才已经说了。
So in a way, you know, a nice four or 5% rate does provide you some sort of, I don't wanna say BS filter, but I think I just did.
但是，你看。
But, look.
现在，什么事都在发生。
Right now, everything's going on.
这里有一个关键的观众，他需要看到大家都在努力降低利率，所以我们正在经历一些严肃的事情，我们应该讨论这一切意味着什么，但很多只是对一条线的恐慌，而没有把这条线拉远来看，我觉得。
There's kind of an audience of one here that would like to that that needs to see everybody trying to bring rates down, and so we're kinda going through there's serious things, so we should discuss, like, what all this means, but, a lot of it is just panicking over a line and not not zooming the line out enough, I think.
对。
Yeah.
吉姆，利率似乎是个容易谈论的话题，但它们确实以非常实际的方式渗透到经济中。
Jim, it seems like interest rates are are like an easy topic to talk about, but they do flow down into the economy in a very real way.
如果你申请房贷，利率通常跟十年期国债挂钩。
If you get a mortgage, it is tied to interest rates, typically the ten year.
公司融资时，如果选择发债，就得为这些债务支付利息。
When companies raise money, they have to pay interest on that debt if they're taking out debt.
股票估值至少部分取决于利率水平，也就是做模型时用的无风险利率。
Stocks are valued at least in part based on what those interest rates are, the risk free rate if you're doing modeling.
所以，如果你是总统或者掌管美联储，你可能会想降低利率来刺激经济，这是有道理的。
So there is a reason if you are, you know, the president or if you're running the fed, you would maybe want lower interest rates to help the economy.
那么作为投资者，你怎么看待这个问题呢？
So how do you think about that as an investor?
我的意思是，这会影响你的建模吗，还是说这只是生态系统中的一些噪音？
I mean, does that something that that plays into your modeling or is this just sort of noise in the ecosystem?
哎呀，这可不好说。
Oh, boy.
不能到处捅马蜂窝啊。
Can't open worms everywhere.
所以，有几点要说。
So a a couple of things.
首先，看过我之前作品的人可能已经听过我要说的这个观点了，但我还是要再说一遍，因为，你知道，经典就是要反复讲。
First off, people who have seen my prior work would probably heard a very version of this, what I'm about to say, but I'll say it again because, you know, just hit the hit play the hits.
对吧？
Right?
大多数人，如果你问他们，一生中最大的累计支出是什么。
Most people ask most people what your largest lifetime cumulative expense is.
嗯。
Mhmm.
好。
Okay.
我在公开场合做过一些小讲座，或者偶尔去高中、大学演讲，甚至在Fool Live、Fool 24上，抱歉，我都会问这个问题。
I when I've when I've done little talks in public or I've I've occasionally talk at high schools or universities or even on Fool Live, Fool 24, sorry, ask that question.
大多数人会说，房子、教育或者孩子。
Most people say, well, house or education or kids.
我就说，不对。
And I'm like, no.
大多数人一生中累计最大的开销其实是利息。
Most people's largest lifetime cumulative expense is actually interest.
房贷的利息、学生贷款的利息、车贷的利息、信用卡的利息，还有孩子的开销等等，都是利息。
Interest on your house, interest on your your student loans, on your car loans, on your credit cards, pay off your credit cards, kids, and so on and so forth.
当你意识到这一点，你就可以开始改变做法，因为避免支付高额利息是你能做到的。
And and when you realize that, you can start doing things differently because it's within your can to not pay high interest.
你可以买小一点的房子。
You can buy a smaller house.
你可以提前还清房贷。
You pay your mortgage down.
你可以买二手车，等等等等。
You could buy a used car, blah blah blah.
好。
Okay.
所以，你知道，这是你在个人生活中避免支付利息的一种方式。
So, you know, this is a way you can avoid paying interest in your personal life.
这是第一点。
That's number one.
而且我会鼓励大多数人这样做，因为我不喜欢把钱白白扔掉。
And I I would encourage most people to do that because I don't like throwing money away.
不过，关于利息去向的想法，是因为，你知道，就像Lou提到的，它便宜得多。
The the idea of of where interest is going, though, is because, you know, as Lou mentioned, it's it's a lot cheaper.
但据我理解这次行动的情况，而且顺便说一句，我可能并没有完全理解。
But as I understand what's going on in from this move, and I and I, by the way, may very well not understand fully.
对吧？
Okay?
我想把这点说清楚。
I want that out there.
美国财政部，再说一次，我是加拿大人，所以，你知道，这不是我的国家，不是我们的财政政策或货币政策，我应该说。
The US treasury, and again, Canadian here, so I'm, you know, not my country, not not our fiscal policy or monetary policy, I should say.
但是，你知道，我们是敏锐的观察者。
But, you know, we are keen observers.
他们正在增加短期债务的销售，用额外的收益来买回长期债务，并压低收益率曲线长端的利率。
They are upping the sales of short term debt using the extra proceeds to buy down the long term debt and tamp down rates at the at the longer end of the curve.
对吧？
Right?
这难道不暗示着有点冒险的行为吗？
And doesn't that suggest a little bit of risky behavior?
比如，如果整个游戏——我多次从一些聪明的傻瓜和不是我们公司的人那里听说——就是，嘿。
Like, if if the whole game, which I've been told by multiple smart fools and people not employed by us, has been to, hey.
你看。
Look.
政府债务很大。
Government debt's large.
美国联邦政府债务已经突破了40万亿美元大关。
Federal government debt in The US has passed the $40,000,000,000,000 mark.
听起来挺多的。
Sounds like a lot.
光是这笔债务的利息，就已经吃掉了联邦税收的20%。
Interest on that debt is already sucking up about 20¢ of every federal tax dollar coming in.
听起来不妙。
Sounds bad.
现在还要发行更多短期债务，利率更低。
And now we're gonna issue more short term debt, which comes with a lower coupon.
那是不是意味着近期需要更多再融资？
Like, isn't that maybe gonna require more refinancing fairly near term?
有什么保证这能行得通？
What guarantee is it that that works?
而且，我可不敢说债券市场能集体看穿这一点，然后说关税会推高通胀。
And, you know, far be it from me to suggest that the bond market might be able to see through that collectively and go, tariffs are inflationary.
债务高企还在增长，而现任政府，你知道，有点——这不是美国原话。
Debt's elevated and growing, and the present government is, you know, kind of and this is not America quote.
我是说，你知道，我可以给你举几个其他政府也不量入为出的例子，包括我们自己的政府。
I mean, you know, I could point you to few other governments not living within their means, including my own.
你明白吗？
You know?
但有时候，事情最终会出问题。
But, like, sometimes eventually things break.
所以，在加拿大这里，我称之为“被选中的冰冻之地”，或者像特拉维斯你指出的，我其实在你南边一点，这算是个有趣的事实。
And so here in in in in Canada, as I call it the land of the frozen chosen or as Travis, as you pointed out, I am a little south of you, you actually, which is kind of fun fact.
别去查这个，傻瓜们。
Don't look this up, fools.
有多少个美国州的领土在加拿大最南端以北？
How many US states have territory above the the most southernmost point of Canada?
大多数——答案会让你惊讶。
Most the the answer will surprise you.
答案会让你惊讶。
The answer will surprise you.
但是，你知道，加拿大在九十年代中期，债务占GDP的比例差不多到了80%，然后他们就开始搞紧缩政策了。
But, you know, like Canada in the mid nineties got up to, like, almost, like, 80%, debt to GDP, and they kinda went austerity.
对吧？
You know?
他们削减了一堆服务。
They off they they cut a bunch of services.
他们把很多服务下放给了各省。
They offloaded a bunch of services to the provinces.
是的。
You know.
现在呢，我觉得我们大概在60到65左右。
And today, I think we're running at about sixty, sixty five.
我想指出的是，美国现在大概在120左右。
And I'm just gonna point that The US is kinda running at, you know, one twenty, I think.
所以，现在你们有我们没有的东西，那就是，你知道，
So, I mean, now you guys have something we don't have, which is, you know,
储备货币。
the Reserve currency.
全球储备货币。
The global reserve currency.
对。
Yeah.
这现在确实挺重要的。
That that feels important for now.
那市场对这笔债务到底想表达什么呢？
So what is the what is the market trying to say about that debt though?
因为我觉得特别有意思的是，这周发生的情况是，财政部在回购一些长期债务，因为他们想降低长期利率，也就是三十年国债的利率。
Because what I think is so interesting in this with this is is the the short term what has happened this week is is the treasury is buying back some long term debt because they wanna reduce those interest rates on the long end of the curve is what you're thirty year bonds.
但财政部，甚至美联储，并不设定利率。
But the the treasury does not or or even the Federal Reserve does not set interest rates.
市场才设定利率。
The market does.
不是。
No.
是债券市场决定的。
The bond market does.
这就是为什么
That's why
我觉得债券市场会看穿这一点。
I say the bond market's gonna see through this.
对。
Right.
所以我觉得债券市场就像是在跟你沟通。
So the bond market is the way I was thinking about it is they're communicating with you.
如果你是一家公司，想要借钱，你当然希望利率更低，但市场在告诉你。
If you're a company and you're going to look for debt, of course you would love to have a lower cost debt, but the market is communicating to you.
不行，我要10%的利率才愿意承担这个风险。
No, I want a 10% interest rate to take that risk.
我想要12%的利率。
I want a 12% interest rate.
然后你就得去适应和调整。
And then you have to adjust to that and adapt to that.
那么债券市场传递出的信号是什么呢？顺便说一句，债券市场的规模是股票市场的十倍。
And so what is the communication that's happening from the bond market, which by the way, is 10 times the size of the equity market.
所以债券市场才是真正主导
So the bond market really runs
世界的。
the world.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得债券市场总体上不喜欢债务状况，就是说，如果市场开始察觉到情况不妙，利率就会上升。至于现在美国、加拿大或者其他地方是不是真的情况不妙，我还没聪明到能判断出来。
The bond market doesn't like the state of debt, I think, in general, in terms of, like, the the rate rates will go up as they start to perceive if there's a bad situation, and I'm not smart enough to know if there's a bad situation in The US or Canada or anywhere else right now.
我只能说，从相对角度来看，债务规模，也就是债务占GDP的比例，正在恶化。
I just, you know, can say, well, on a relative basis, this is getting worse in terms of the amount of debt, in terms of the ratio of debt to GDP.
这种情况能逆转吗？
Can it be reversed?
当然，是可以逆转的。
Of course, it could be reversed.
但现在债券市场传递的信号是，我们对此不太确定。
But right now, the bond market's going, we're not really sure about this.
另外还有一点，每个市场都一样，所有价格其实就是供需关系的简单体现。
The other thing that's going on, and this is just true of every market, is is that all prices are just a simple measure of supply and demand.
而现在债务的供应量确实很大。
And there is just a lot of supply of debt right now.
我们之前聊过那些超大规模数据中心运营商以及他们所做的一切。
We've talked about the hyperscalers and everything they're doing.
这也不只是美国的情况。
This is hardly a US thing too.
就像吉姆说的，很多国家都有这个问题，比如德国。
As Jim said, there's a lot of countries, Germany.
全世界都在搞财政赤字，都需要借钱。
All over the world, we are running budget deficits and needing.
所以市场上到处都是债券。
So there is just a lot of paper out there.
你得让自己的债券有吸引力，那就得靠利率。
You have to make yours pretty, and you do that with rates.
所以，你懂的，利率就是这么回事。
So, you know, I mean, that's just kinda how rates work.
就像吉姆说的，我也说过，我觉得对普通观众来说，在赤字两万亿的情况下回购四十亿债券，就像换成低脂牛奶然后说，好吧，我每天还是可以吃八千卡路里。
To Jim's point, and and I said, I think for an audience one, buying back 4,000,000,000 in bonds when your deficit is $2,000,000,000,000 is like switching to low fat milk and saying, okay, I can still eat 8,000 calories a day.
我刚看到一个视频，有人用水枪去灭火，对，就像那样。
Just I saw a video of somebody using a squirt gun to try to put out Yeah.
房子着火了。
A house fire.
我觉得这个比喻更贴切。
I think that is another The analogy.
对。
Yeah.
这根本行不通，但我觉得是有人被要求做点什么，所以他们想表现出自己在做事。
It's it's just not gonna work, but I think someone was told to do something, and so they wanted to show they're doing something.
话虽如此，其实这比我们愿意承认的要可持续得多。
That said, look, this is a lot more sustainable than we like to admit.
总有一天政府得想办法解决这个问题，但我们确实是自己印钱的。
At some point, the the government is gonna have to do something about it, but we do print our own money.
至少目前是这样，我们可能正在尽力搞砸这件事，但我们是储备货币。
We are, at least for now, we might be doing our best to try to ruin that, but we are the reserve currency.
市场是稳定的。
There is a stable market.
这让一切都变得更难，而且把账单留给了后代。
This makes everything harder, and it sticks future generations with the bill.
所以我并不是说这是好事。
So I am not saying it's a good thing.
政府每花一美元在利息上，就少了一美元可以用在别的地方。最明显的建议是买国防股，但我的意思是，他们还是付得起那个的。
Every dollar the government has to spend on interest is a dollar that could be going the obvious one says sell defense stocks because but, I mean, they'll afford that.
但想想政府投资的所有领域，从医疗到基础设施，再到全球各地。
But think about everywhere the government invests from health care to infrastructure to just all over the world.
每花一美元在利息上，就少了一美元能花在这些地方。
Every dollar for interest is a dollar they can't spend there.
这是个严重的问题，但对投资者来说是个长期问题。
This is a serious problem, but it is a long term problem as an investor.
我不担心现在所有事情都会崩盘，但作为投资者，这确实让一切都变得更难。
I don't worry about everything going flips y now, but it does make just everything harder as an investor.
而且，作为投资者，因为这就是我不喜欢谈宏观经济的原因，我在这方面很笨。
And and just to as as an investor, because this was the this is what I I don't like talking macroeconomics because I'm dumb.
我肯定会说错。
I'm gonna be wrong.
对吧？
Right?
好的。
Okay.
大体上就是这样，你知道，我不是经济学家。
That's the general like, you know, I've I'm not an economist.
但作为投资者，Travis，你之前提到过，投资模型可能基于利率。
But as an investor, Travis, you talked earlier about, you know, investment models may be based off of the interest rate.
通常是十年期国债，也就是所谓的无风险利率。
Usually, the ten year, the so called risk free rate.
而且这个利率越高，应该会影响……
And the higher, you know, the higher that goes, it should it should impact.
你知道，模型的基本折现率计算方式就是无风险利率加上某种风险溢价，大概5%或6%。
It's you you know, the basic way you do a a a discount rate for a for a model is the risk free rate plus some sort of a risk premium five or 6%.
从历史上看，或者更近一些，如果你关注那些估值大师，比如问莫特和其他几位我们可能提到的，
And historically, you know, like or more recently, you know, like, if you you follow any kind of the valuation gurus, out there, you know, ask what the motor and a few others we could name.
你会看到有些模型里的折现率已经达到9%左右了。
You're seeing discount rates in the 9% range in some of the models.
而且我个人从来不同意这个观点。
And, I I personally have never agreed with that.
我从来不同意那种，你知道的，跟着那个走的做法。
I've never agreed with, you know, you know, kind of, like, take your cue from there.
我建模型的时候，我的默认假设就是，你看。
My whole thing is always when I build a model, my default assumption is, look.
从历史上看，股市包括股息在内的年化回报率大约是11%。
I historically, the stock market has returned with dividends included about 11% annualized.
对吧？
Okay?
所以这就是我的机会成本，可以这么说。
So that's my opportunity cost, if you will.
我可以去买一个标普500指数的ETF，指数ETF。
I can go out and buy an S and P 500 index traded ETF, index ETF.
长期来看，假设未来和过去差不多，我大概能获得11%的年化回报。
And over the long term, assuming that the future looks a lot like the past, I'm gonna make about 11% annualized.
所以，你知道，我当时有个偷懒的想法，就是，如果那是我的机会成本，那我评估任何公司时，都会用我的机会成本来折现它的现金流。
So, you know, I had the, you know, lazy insight that, well, if that's my opportunity cost, I wanna discount the cash flows of any company I'm looking at at my opportunity cost.
我知道我其实不太在乎资本资产定价模型告诉我应该用8.25%，那个就是Motor And给最近的SpaceX IPO估值的利率。
I know I don't particularly care if, you know, the, the the capital asset pricing model tells me I should be using 8.25%, which is what the motor and valued the recent, SpaceX IPO at.
说实话，我觉得那太离谱了。
I think that's insane, frankly.
但他是Motor And的，而我不是。
But he's Athwat the motor and I'm not.
所以我就直接用11%，然后在我的模型里，如果11%的模型说，你知道，利率和金融理论应该让我用接近9%的折现率。
And so I just run with 11% and, you know, and then in my modeling, if if if an 11% model when say, you know, interest rates and, you know, finance theory should tell me, oh, you should be closer to nine.
如果我仍然觉得在11%的折现率下这是个便宜货，那它肯定会赢。
If I'd still think it's a bargain at 11 at 11% discount rate Then they're gonna be a winner.
对。
Yeah.
因为，如果你不知道的话，折现率越高，现值就越低。
Because fools if you don't know, the the higher the discount rate, the lower the present valuation will be.
所以，是的。
And so yeah.
所以，这就是我绕过这个问题的一个原因，也是为什么这个消息很有趣。
So that's how that's one reason I get around this and why, you know, this is interesting news.
我们可以聊聊这个。
We can talk about it.
但回到你之前说的，Travis，这真的会影响我的流程吗？
But to your point or your earlier, Travis, does it really impact my process?
因为我有自己的流程，而且我明白为什么我有这个流程。
Because I have my process, and I understand why I have my process.
嗯，这件事肯定会登上很多头条。
Well, this is something that's gonna get a lot of headlines in it.
我觉得归根结底，那些借债的公司最需要考虑这个问题，因为如果利率继续上升，这些成本也会继续上升。
I I think at the end of the day, the companies that are taking out debt are gonna have to think about this the most because if interest rates do continue to go up, those costs are gonna continue to go up.
我们回来之后，要聊聊可能是过去几十年里最令人兴奋的医疗新闻。
When we come back, we are gonna talk about maybe the most exciting health care news in the last couple of decades.
你正在收听Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资节目。
You're listening to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.
欢迎回到Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资节目。
Welcome back to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.
我们得聊聊本周，甚至可能是今年最重要的新闻。
We do have to touch on maybe the most important news of the week, maybe of the year.
Moderna和默克公布了一项癌症疫苗三期临床试验的结果。
Moderna and Merck released results of a free phase three trial for a cancer vaccine.
疫苗。
Vaccine.
Lou，这件事，我从来没想过我会说癌症疫苗，但市场反应非常热烈。
This is something, Lou, I didn't I don't think I'd ever thought that I would say a vaccine for cancer, but the market had a phenomenal reaction.
Moderna的股价涨了大约140%，我刚看的。
Moderna stock's up about a 140% this I just looked.
我在Moderna上的回报现在大约是13%，这说明我之前有多……
My returns on Moderna is now about 13% to show you how much I was
总共还是亏了。
Total or ad bag.
那是总共的。
That's total.
那是总共的。
That's total.
所以，这看起来像是——而且，你知道，我们不是医生或药剂师——但这看起来像是那种在未来十年或二十年里可能成为真正重大新闻的公告之一。
So but this seems like and and, you know, we're not doctors or pharmacists, but this seems like one of those announcements that could be really, really big news over the course of the next decade or two.
对。
Right.
没错。
Exactly.
而且我们不知道，我很高兴你说了“可能”，因为，你知道，医学头条从来都不靠谱，但有可能，这不仅仅是Moderna股东的好消息。
And we don't know, and I'm glad you said could because, you know, medicine headlines on medicine never work out, but potentially, this isn't just great news for Moderna shareholders.
这是全人类的好消息。
This is great news for humanity.
不过现在说这些还早，就像你说的。
It is early, though, as you say.
我不太想急着进场。
I'm not inclined to rush in here.
我倒是希望自己能在30块的时候买，但我确实觉得这已经，怎么说呢，算是被市场消化了。
I wish I would have bought at 30 or whatever, but I do think it's kind of, quote, unquote, priced in.
这股票真是太牛了，各位。
This is just an amazing stock, guys.
你看啊。
I mean, look.
如果你是在，我记得是2024年5月24号买的，现在还在亏着呢。
If you bought on, I think it was, what, May 24, 2024, you're still underwater here.
而且顺便说一句，如果你是在疫情期间买的，那亏得更多。
And by the way, if you bought during COVID, you're still way underwater.
Jim，我们总说生物科技很难搞，市场也很疯狂，但这只股票简直就是个特例中的特例。
Jim, we talk about biotech being hard, and we talk about just it's a crazy market, but this doesn't even like like, this is just its special own case.
它带着潜力徘徊了好几年，因为能终结一场瘟疫而获得了惊人的提振，但当投资者意识到，希望新的瘟疫不会经常出现时，它就失去了动力，最终成了政治靶子，成了政治上的出气筒，说实话，事后看来，那时候它真是便宜得离谱。
It lingered for years with potential, got an amazing boost because it was able to end a plague, lost momentum when investors realized that hopefully new plagues don't come around every so often, ended up a political target, like a political whipping boy, which where it got honestly really, really stupid cheap in hindsight.
而现在，我们就在这里。
And now here we are.
这种股票真是独一无二，没有第二家。
This is just they don't make them like this.
别提生物科技了。
Forget biotech.
这完全是另一回事。
This is just different.
对。
Yeah.
我是说，我想说，生物科技很难，我们说过好几次了，而且我肯定不够聪明，没法在这个领域里分辨出赢家和输家。
I mean, I like to say, biotech is hard as as we've hit a couple of times, and I am certainly not smart enough to call winners and losers in this space.
嗯，其实，我倒是够聪明，能分辨出输家。
Well, actually, I am smart enough to call losers.
因为每次我涉足这个领域，最后都亏了。
As in every time I've played in this space, I've ended up with a loser.
你知道吗？
You know?
不过，是的，我想接着你刚才说的，聊聊莫德纳本身。
And but, yeah, I wanna I wanna go in on what you're talking about, with Moderna Moderna itself.
比如，你知道，生物科技的问题，不管是不是莫德纳，我就不谈政治了，因为，再说一次，我是加拿大人，我懂什么？
Like, you know, like, the problem with biotech, whether you call it Moderna or not, I'm gonna stay away from the politics stuff because, again, Canadian, what do I know?
如果你是跟风买的，这就是个疫情期间的炒作故事。
If you bought with the hype, this is a hype story during COVID.
对吧？
Right?
因为它，就像你说的，要终结瘟疫，或者至少那是当时的宣传。
Because it's going to, as you say, end the plague or at least that was the that that was the marketing.
那是炒作，但说清楚，当时确实有真实的收入和利润，虽然短暂。
It was hype, but there was to be clear, there was real revenue and profit there for a short
确实，那段时间确实有真实的收入和利润。
period of Absolutely.
但问题是，如果你在上一个大炒作周期买了Moderna，即使这周大涨了一波，你大概还是亏了50%到70%。
And so but the problem is if you were if you bought Moderna during the last big hype cycle, even after the big run up this week, you're still down probably 50 to 70%.
对。
Yeah.
好。
Okay.
你连特拉维斯说的那13%的收益都拿不到，更别提多少年了。
You don't even get Travis's 13% over how many years.
而且与此同时，标普指数在过去五年里……
And the the meanwhile, the s like, over the last five years.
对吧？
Okay?
我这边另一个屏幕上正好显示着五年的走势图。
Like, I'm just call it the five year chart on on my other screen here.
过去五年，Moderna跌了60%。
Last five years, Moderna is down 60%.
市场涨了73%，还没算股息。
The market is up 73% before dividends.
如果你有兴趣在生物科技领域投资，我得到的建议，也是我想转告你的，就是可以考虑买一个覆盖面广的生物科技板块ETF，我就随便举个例子吧。
If you if you are inclined to play in the biotech space, the advice I receive, the advice I will pass along is that maybe seek out a broad sector ETF focused on biotech because and I'm just gonna pick one randomly here.
比如道富旗下的标普生物科技ETF。
The State Street Spider S and P biotech ETF.
对。
Okay.
市面上这类产品挺多的。
Just there there's a bunch of these out there.
你可以自己去查查，Fool's。
You can go look at them up, Fool's.
但这个道富标普生物科技ETF，同期五年涨了36.5%。
But the this one, State Street Spider S and P biotech, it is up 36 and a half percent over that same five years.
所以你没有跑赢市场。
So you didn't match the market.
如果你想涉足生物科技领域，也许最好分散投资，因为你不知道什么时候会有好消息，比如，我们都能同意。
And if you wanna play in biotech, maybe it's best to spread your bets around because you don't know when a good news story like, mean, like, like, we can all agree.
癌症疫苗很了不起。
A cancer vaccine is amazing.
如果这能成功，还有时间推向市场。
If this works, there's still time to to come to market.
如果这能成功，我的意思是，这对人类来说显然是件好事。
If this works, I mean, it's it's it's a net positive for humanity, obviously.
但到那时你无法预测，除非你是生物科技专家，而我显然不是。
But you by the time you can't predict, unless you're a biotech expert, and I am certainly not.
你真的无法预测哪些公司和哪些分子会成功，也真的无法预测它们什么时候会成功。
You really can't predict which companies and which molecules are gonna strike, and you really can't predict when they're gonna strike.
所以分散你的投资，我们生活在一个可以通过购买专注于该行业的交易所交易ETF来分散投资的时代。
And so spread your bets around, and we live in a we live in an era when you can spread your bets around by just simply buying an exchange traded ETF that focuses on that sector.
总之呢。
So anyway.
Lou，简单说两句。
Lou, really quick.
你觉得我们是不是正在进入一个，随着AI、数据，还有所有这些进步，
Do you think that we're entering with with AI, with data, with with all these sort of advancements?
我们是不是正在进入医疗保健的新时代，像这种巨大的、看似很重大的事情，会比过去一百年更频繁地出现？
Are we entering a new era in health care where these kind of huge, seemingly huge things are coming more regularly than they did in the last hundred years?
但愿如此。
I wish.
我不这么认为。
I don't think so.
我觉得我们一直在进步，但AI懂英语。
I I I think we're always improving, but AI knows English.
AI不懂生物学。
AI doesn't know biology.
那得花些时间。
That's gonna take some time.
所以我觉得我们应该对现有的成果心存感激，并希望它能持续下去。
So think I we're just should be grateful for what we get and hope it continues.
对。
Yeah.
这将会非常精彩，希望它能对投资者和人类都有好的结果，就像我们之前说的那样。
This this will be fascinating to watch, and, hopefully, it works well, for investors and for humanity like we talked about.
我们稍后回来。
We'll be back in a moment.
你正在收听的是 Motley Fool 的 Hidden Gems 投资节目。
You're listening to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.
欢迎回到 Motley Fool 的 Hidden Gems 投资节目。
Welcome back to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.
在这个环节，我们喜欢在投资上找点乐子。我想说的是，吉姆是一位价值投资者，以在其他人知道 GameStop 之前就买入而闻名，那将是你的...
In this segment, we like to have a little bit of fun with investing, and I wanted to Jim is a value investor, famed for buying GameStop before everyone else knew that GameStop that GameStop was even That's more than gonna be that's gonna be your
你的看法。
your opinion.
加拿大人。
Canadian.
就这两点。
Those are the two things.
就这些。
That that's it.
游戏股，加拿大人。
Game stock, Canadian.
那我们来玩一个游戏，我管它叫“拿走我的钱”。
But so we're gonna play a game that I like to call take my money.
如果你看过那个梗，就是股票或公司价格低到什么程度，你会说“拿走我的钱”。
So if you've seen the meme, at what price does a stock or a company needs to be where you go, take my money.
这太便宜了。
This is so cheap.
我得尽可能多买一些。
I'm I have gotta get as much as I can.
卢，我们先从Anthropic的IPO说起。
Lou, we're gonna start with the Anthropic IPO.
Anthropic的上市日期一直在往后推。
The Anthropic is the date keeps keeps moving up.
我听说他们可能这个月就会发布一些文件，也就是接下来一周半左右。
I've now heard that they may release some of their documents this month, so in the next week and a half.
他们似乎急着要上市。
They seem to be run rushing towards public markets.
你觉得Anthropic的市值达到多少，你作为投资者才会觉得特别有吸引力？
At what market cap would Anthropic be incredibly compelling to you as an investor?
对。
Yeah.
顺便问一下，你觉得他们急着上市有错吗？
I did you blame them for rushing to the markets, by the way?
我的意思是，你看。
I mean, look.
那个，那个……
The the
你能拿到两万亿美元。
You get $2,000,000,000,000.
对。
Yeah.
你知道吗？
You know?
很难拒绝。
Hard to say no.
他们最好的时机可能是六个月前。
The best time for them to have done it was probably six months ago.
所以，你看，我真的不知道，但我肯定想要低于一万亿的估值。
So, look, I I honestly don't know, but I want subtrillion definitely.
也许在炒作下，市值能达到6.7万亿美元。
Maybe maybe with hype, $6,700,000,000,000 market cap.
我至少得看一眼。
I might at least have to give it, give it a look.
但问题是这样的。
But here's the thing.
他们现在正在赢。
They're winning right now.
我们太早下结论了。
We're too early to know.
我的意思是，一年半前，OpenAI似乎要统治世界。
I mean, a year and a half ago, was OpenAI was was just going to rule the world.
我觉得教训是，我们真的不知道这些业务中哪一个能长期持续，所以老实说，无论估值多少，我都会非常谨慎。
I think the lesson is we don't really know which one of these businesses is sustainable long term, so I would be very gun shy almost at any valuation if I'm honest.
吉姆，对于Anthropic，你觉得什么估值对你来说有吸引力？
Jim, any any valuation that is compelling for you for anthropic?
我真想直接说两票，然后引用一下Lou说的话。
I'm tempted just to say two votes and point what Lou said.
我会给一个标准答案：当未来现金流的折现值，按合适的利率折现到现在，如果这个值高于当前市值，那就是公司的计算价值。
I'm gonna give a standard answer for When the sum of future cash flows discount back to the present at a at an appropriate rate, when that is higher than the then current market cap, the calculated value of the company.
而且我有个奇怪的习惯，就是坚持要给期权、限制性股票、认股权证这些东西估值，你知道的，这些都会让价值流向内部人。
And I also I have this weird habit where I insist on valuing things like options and restricted stock and warrants and all these things that, you know, sees value leak out to insiders.
有人告诉我那是
I was told that's
不是真钱。
not real money.
对。
Yeah.
你知道，是的。
You know, yeah.
好吧，他们就是错了，但我尊重他们犯错的权利，这是我和我妻子进行激烈讨论时最喜欢说的一句话。
Well, they're just wrong, but I respect their right to be wrong, which is my favorite line when my wife and I are having elevated discussions.
我尊重你犯错的权利。
I respect your right to be wrong.
不过，是的。
But yeah.
你知道，当从估值角度来看合理，而且计算保守的时候。
I you know, when when it makes sense from a from a valuation perspective, conservatively calculated.
所以，假设他们在亏损，而且没有——我觉得这些公司有些难的地方在于，没有明确的预计盈利时间点。
And So assuming they're they're losing money and there is no I I think the hard thing with some of some of these companies is there is no necessarily projected time that they're going to turn profitable.
但如果他们盈利了，变成了谷歌，甚至变成了优步，那还是有价值的。
But if they turn profitable and they become Google, they become, you know, even an Uber, there is value there somewhere.
所以，当然。
So Sure.
但谷歌一开始就非常赚钱。
But but Google came out wildly profitable.
对。
Right.
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对。
Right.
对。
Right.
确实如此。
They did.
但他们当时远没有现在这么强大。
But they were nowhere near who they are to.
是的。
Yeah.
还有OpenAI，我想。
And and and OpenAI, I guess.
我的意思是，他们不会。
I mean, they're not going to.
而且，你知道，就连Uber也经历了漫长的艰难时期，才最终把那些出租车公司挤出市场，抢走了它们的份额。
And, you know, and and and even Uber had to go through the wilderness, frankly, before they could put all the taxi companies effectively out of business and and steal their shares.
所以，你知道，还有一点就是，IPO通常伴随着很多炒作，这是显而易见的。
So, you know, and also too, just the general warning with IPOs is, there's a lot of hype, obviously.
大家会变得非常非常兴奋。
People get very, very excited.
而且，学术文献，金融学术文献在这个问题上相当明确，大多数IPO在上市后的头几年表现不佳。
And, the academic literature, the academic finance literature is pretty unequivocal on this thing that most IPOs underperform for the first couple years of going public.
我知道这个回答很老套也很无聊。
I realize that's a very staid and boring answer.
你可能想避免在IPO阶段就介入，直到有现金流、有盈利能力，炒作也消退之后再说。
You probably want to avoid playing an IPO space until, you know, there is cash flows and there is profitability and the hype goes away.
好吧，我猜你对OpenAI的回答也是一样的。
Well, I'm gonna assume your answer is the same with OpenAI.
没错。
Correct.
Lou，你对OpenAI有没有类似的数字，就是你……
Lou, do you have a similar number with OpenAI where you
可以回答这个问题。
can answer that
或者我
or I
我本来希望吉姆先回答，然后我打算玩一下《价格猜猜猜》的游戏，说一美元。
was hoping Jim was gonna go first, and I was gonna do the price is right thing and say $1.
说实话，各位，我真的不知道他们会不会上市。我的意思是，我猜他们会，因为他们必须这么做，但我现在并不是百分百确定OpenAI会进行IPO。
I honestly, guys, I don't know if they'll I I mean, I I'm guessing they will because they have to, but I I am not a 100% convinced there will ever be an OpenAI IPO at this point.
如果价格一样，你会更感兴趣Anthropic还是OpenAI？
Would you be more interested in Anthropic or OpenAI at the same price?
如果价格一样的话，现在我会选Anthropic。
At the same price right now, Anthropic.
好的。
Okay.
对。
Yeah.
其实我的答案可能也是这样。
That's probably my answer too, actually.
好的。
Alright.
我们来看看市场上最热门的资产。
Let's go to the hottest asset on the market.
吉姆，我先从你开始。
Jim, I'm gonna start with you.
你对比特币有什么感兴趣的价格吗？
Any price that you're interested in Bitcoin?
没有。
No.
卢？
Lou?
听着，我可能会在低价位随便买一点，因为我不太看好它。
Look, I probably take a flyer at lower just because I wouldn't put much strength into it.
我对比特币的问题是，它实际上什么用都没有。
Like, the my problem with Bitcoin is is that it doesn't do anything.
我看好比特币的理由是，十年来我们一直在寻找它的用途，但到现在还在不断发现新的用途，这确实说明它很灵活。
My the bull case for Bitcoin is they we've played whack a mole with the use case for a decade now, and they're still coming up with some, which does speak to its pliability.
所以也许其中某个用途会真正落地。
So maybe one of these hits.
所以可能有个价格，但可能也就是四分之一，甚至更少，你知道，也许在1.5万左右，我可能会……
So it's probably a price, but it's may it's it's a quarter, if not more of, you know, maybe maybe in the fifteens or so, I'd probably just
投点钱进去。
throw money.
我，我
I I
想想，你想做多少洗钱？
think How much money laundering do you wanna do?
我是说，那也算一种用途。
I mean, that's that's a use case.
对。
Yeah.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得到那时候我也会忍不住。
I I think I'd probably be compelled at that point too.
好的。
Okay.
接下来就更有意思了。
This is where things get a little more interesting.
迪士尼的股票。
Disney stock.
迪士尼这十年、十五年基本没怎么涨，但人家确实有业务在。
Disney has been has gone nowhere for, what, a decade, fifteen years at this point, but there is a business there.
确实有实实在在的东西，人们真的会花钱去迪士尼乐园。
There is a there there people do pay real money to go to the parks.
Lou，在什么价位，或者换个说法，多少倍的市盈率，你才会对迪士尼的股票感兴趣？
Lou, at what price or what price earnings multiple, that would maybe be another way to put it, are you interested in Disney stock?
就它目前的样子，我觉得我可能不太会被说服去买。
I in its current form, I don't know if I can be talked to it.
我自己已经说服了自己，他们就应该把主题公园和体验业务，还有那些游轮，都分拆成一家独立的公司，签一个永久的授权协议来保留IP，但把所有媒体业务都从账上剥离掉。
I am I am convinced myself that they need to just spin out the parks and the experiences, all of that, the cruise ships as an independent company, sign a perpetual license forever to keep the IP, but just get all of the media off the books.
我很喜欢我那个想法，比如直接和Netflix合并，但我不觉得这个业务能行得通。
I love my idea of, like, just merge with Netflix, but I don't think this business works.
各位，我其实之前在看康卡斯特，不是因为我觉得它更好，只是至少它更便宜，结果他们又搞了个分拆，变成了两家公司。
Guys, I I was actually kicking the tires on Comcast, not because I like it better, but just because at least it was cheaper, and then they had to go do that split and made it two.
但迪士尼，我真的觉得，就目前这些资产的组合，没法像他们希望的那样运作，而且我觉得分拆那些传统业务也不会救得了他们，就像它没能救康卡斯特一样。
But Disney, I I don't think I just don't think the collection of assets as stated works the way they hoped it would, and I don't think spinning off the legacy things will work for will save them any more than it saved Comcast.
吉姆，14.5倍的远期市盈率。
Jim, 14 and a half times forward earnings.
有没有一个价格？
Is there a price?
鲍勃·艾格已经走了。
Bob Iger's gone.
顺便提一下，我提起这个是因为吉姆对迪士尼和鲍勃·艾格有强烈的看法，而且他是个《星球大战》的超级粉丝。
By the way, I brought this up because Jim has strong opinions on Disney and Bob Iger, is a Star Wars super fan.
也许不是。
Maybe So not
从后面的一些东西来看，说不准。
Can't tell with some of the stuff behind
我在这里。
me here.
也许不是对公司过去十年左右处理方式的最大粉丝。
May maybe not the the biggest fan of the way the company has handled the last decade or so.
但有没有一个价格会变得有吸引力呢？
But is there a price where it becomes compelling?
当然有。
Sure.
每个资产都有一个价格，到了那个价格就变得有吸引力了。
There's price where every asset becomes compelling.
我不确定现在是不是那个时机。
I'm not sure it's now.
我是说，迪士尼嘛，是的。
I mean, Disney yeah.
你知道，Travis说得对。
You know, Travis is right.
我是出了名的对Bob Iger持怀疑态度，因为过去差不多二十年里，迪士尼一直被当成Bob Iger的敛财工具。
I'm I I'm a known Bob Iger skeptic because Disney has been used as a Bob Iger enrichment scheme for much of the last two decades.
你明白吧？
You know?
我对Iger先生本人以及他的管理风格评价都不高，不过咱们就说到这儿吧。
And I I do not have a high opinion of mister Iger and or his management style, but we'll leave it that.
在我看来，迪士尼的问题有点像那种‘天下已定，下一步干什么’的困境。
The problem with Disney as I see it is cut something of a what more worlds to conquer problem.
你知道，他们已经拥有了童年。
You know, they already own childhood.
对吧？
Okay?
皮克斯、星球大战、漫威。
Pixar, Star Wars, Marvel.
漫威现在有点走下坡路了。
Marvel's on the the the the lag.
如果你去查一下，你懂的，你能找到这些数据。
If you ever look up at, you know, you can find this stuff.
这些信息都是公开的。
It's out there.
去迪士尼乐园的花费，其上涨速度比通货膨胀率高出大约10个百分点，这种情况持续了差不多三十年。
The inflation the the the pace at which going to Disney parks has outpaced the rate of inflation by about 10 percentage points for something like third three decades.
你知道，这里确实存在一个‘还有什么世界可以征服’的问题。
You know, there there is a what more worlds to conquer problem here.
那他们接下来还能往哪儿走呢？
And and so where can they go with that?
说实话，14倍的市盈率，或者说前瞻市盈率，对我来说并不是特别重要。
I'm not sure 14 times earnings, forward earnings really matters all that much to me.
你知道，在最近一个财年，他们的自由现金流大概有100亿美元。
You know, in the last, like, the most recent fiscal year, they did about $10,000,000,000 in in free cash flow.
对吧？
Okay?
但他们其中大约60亿美元花在了回购和分红上。
But they spent about 6,000,000,000 of that on buybacks and dividends.
所以那部分钱就没了。
So that's money that's lost.
这些钱不会重新投回公司。
It's not money that's not gonna go back into the company.
你知道，在过去十二个月里，他们的自由现金流实际上大约是90亿美元。
You know, over the past twelve trailing months, they're actually at about $9,000,000,000 in free cash flow.
大部分都花在了加速回购上。
Most of that's gone to accelerated buybacks.
一般来说，如果回购价格合理，我是喜欢的。
Generally, I like buybacks if they're done at a decent enough price.
我不确定迪士尼现在是不是那个价位，而且我提过这个想法。
I'm not sure Disney's there, and, I I floated.
我记得我第一次写这个大概是在十二三年前。
I think I first wrote this about twelve or thirteen years ago.
当时是《华盛顿邮报》请The Motley Fool的一群分析师，你懂的，提出一个疯狂的收购预测，我们好几个人都写了小短文。
It was The Washington Post to ask The Motley Fool, a bunch of analysts to, you know, come up with a wacky, acquisition prediction, and a bunch of us had little write ups.
我写的是，我觉得苹果应该收购迪士尼，因为迪士尼的内容可以提供给苹果那庞大的设备用户群，人们越来越盯着这些设备看，而不是和身边的人互动，我觉得那会是很棒的事情，然后你可以，你懂的，把主题公园之类的剥离出去，只保留内容。
And my write up was that I think Apple should buy Disney because it's content for their army of of devices that people are increasingly staring at, you know, rather than interacting with their fellow humans and I thought that would be a pretty great thing and then you could, you know, to lose point, you could off gas the the parks to something else and just take content.
不过，是的。
But, yeah.
我的意思是，再说一次，结果会是一样的。
I mean, again, it's gonna be the same.
我知道我玩得不对。
I know that I'm not playing the game right.
我知道。
I know.
但是，你知道，在估值合理的情况下，可能不是在这个水平。
But, you know, at at a valuation where it makes sense, probably not at this level.
你知道，我觉得是多少倍？
You know, I think it's what?
30倍，25倍的自由现金流。
30 times, 25 times free cash flow.
对我来说，今天这似乎有点过高了。
That's that seems a little excessive to me today.
我得说，作为家里有小孩的人，我们去年去了迪士尼。
I I've gotta say, as as the one here who has young kids in the house, we went to Disney last year.
迪士尼作为品牌，对父母来说，真是根深蒂固，太不可思议了。
It is incredible how institutionalized Disney is as a brand for for parents.
我们也去了环球影城，但感觉完全不一样。
And we went to the Universal theme parks as well, and they're just not the same.
他们就是做得没那么好。
They're they're just they're not done as well.
远远比不上
They're not nearly as
哈利波特主题区可能会反驳这一点。
Harry Potter land would argue that point.
嗯，
Well,
我的孩子还没那么大。
my kids aren't quite that old.
哦，这样啊。
Oh, okay.
去
Go to
哈利波特那边。
the Harry Potter.
但任天堂那边做得不错，不过也就那样，你知道，那也就玩几个小时。
But Nintendo was well done, but even that was, you know, that's a that's a couple hours.
撑不了一整天。
That's not an entire day.
特拉维斯，问题是这种情况已经持续很久了，而且你刚才也提到了过去十五年的股价。
Travis, the thing about that is that's been true for a long time, and you already mentioned the stock price over the last fifteen years.
所以，两件事可以同时成立。
So, like, two things can be true.
品牌确实很棒，但就是长期表现不佳。
The brands are great, and it's just it hasn't worked for a long time.
我还要提醒投资者，迪士尼会经历这种长达十年的周期，
I will remind investors too that Disney goes through these decade long cycles of being
在
in
在八十年代初跌入谷底，然后大幅反弹，接着在九十年代末又跌入谷底，然后又大幅反弹，现在我们又经历了一次低谷。
the abyss in the early early eighties and then having a massive comeback, and then another abyss in the late nineties and then a massive comeback and now we've had an abyss.
也许我们准备好反弹了，但这可能是另一期节目的话题。
Maybe we're ready for a comeback, but that's probably a topic for another show.
好的。
Alright.
很快，我想快速了解一下，吉姆，你对特斯拉股票有没有一个感兴趣的价格？
Quickly, I wanted to get a quick idea if there is a price, Jim, that you are are interested in Tesla stock.
我们目前的市值是1.4万亿美元。
We currently have a $1,400,000,000,000 market cap.
即使按最宽松的前瞻市盈率来算，也是190倍。
Price earnings multiple on a forward basis to be the most generous is a 190.
有没有一个你会买入的价格？
Is there a price that you would buy?
任何资产都有一个合适的价格。
There is a price for any asset.
我确实这么认为。
I really do believe that.
我愿意为特斯拉支付的价格，大多数人不知道这一点。
The price that I would pay for Tesla, and most people don't know this.
我以前是特斯拉的股东，而且我可能是The Motley Fool里对特斯拉最悲观的人之一。
I am a former Tesla shareholder, and I'm probably one of the larger bearers of Tesla at The Motley Fool.
我以前是股东。
I'm a former shareholder.
在上面赚了钱。
Made money on it.
显然赚得不够多，但是，是的，对于特斯拉来说，增长已经消失了。
Didn't make enough money on it apparently, but, yeah, with with Tesla, the growth is gone.
埃隆被另一家他最近刚上市的公司分散了注意力。
Elon is distracted by some other company he's just recently taken public.
营业利润率，盈利能力利润率已经大幅下降。
The operating margins, the profitability margins have cratered.
他们的利润率从几年前19%降到了，我想，最近一个季度是1.4。
They've gone from 19% a couple years ago to, I think, the most recent quarter is 1.4.
你知道，大多数汽车公司利润率在这个水平，市盈率通常只有7到10倍，而不是300倍。
You know, most auto companies with margins at that level trade for seven to 10 times earnings, not 300.
我买特斯拉的价格，因为我认为它未来能提供高于市场的回报，这个价格大概以3或4开头，而且只有两位数。
My price where I would buy Tesla because I think it offers a an above market return going forward, that the price probably starts with a three or a four and there's only two digits on it.
Lou，快说，你的答案是什么？
Lou, quickly, what's your answer here?
那我就当个看涨的人，纯粹为了好玩，反正还是会收到信件的。
So I'm I'm gonna be the bull here just for fun, and we'll still get letters.
好吗？
Okay?
我要说，特斯拉远不止是通用汽车那样的公司。
I am gonna say that Tesla is so much more than General Motors.
所以，如果给特斯拉一个估值溢价，比如说是通用的六倍，而通用汽车的估值大约是销售额的0.4倍。
And so as there's reserves, let's say six a six x premium on valuation of General Motors, General Motors trades for about point four times sales.
所以我们给他们2.6倍的销售额，我的市值是2750亿美元，那才是我认为的合理价值。
So we'll give them 2.6 times sales, and my market cap is at $2.75 275,000,000,000 would be my fair value.
我不确定我是不是真的这么想，但这样说是为了表明比现在低。
I don't know if I really mean that, but it's a way to say lower than here.
我也想补充说明一下。
I I will also offer the clarification.
我也是个指数基金的忠实粉丝，我们家一半的个人资金都投在指数基金里，另一半是个股。
I have a I'm a big index fan index fund guy as well, and about half of our personal money in my family is index funds, the other half is individual stocks.
我持有大量的标普500指数基金。
I own a lot of the S and P 500.
所以从穿透的角度看，讽刺的是，我其实间接持有不少特斯拉的股票。
So on a look through basis, I actually ironically own a lot of Tesla.
我还想指出，他们关闭了太阳能屋顶业务，那可是他们收购SolarCity的主要原因之一，这让我很震惊。
I will also note that they shut shut down their solar roof, which was one of the big reasons that they bought bought Solar City, one of the things that Shocking.
十多年前我就觉得这事儿很疯狂。
Me me crazy more than a decade ago.
不过等我们回来，我们会聊到我们关注的那些股票。
But when we come back, we are gonna get to the stocks on our radar.
你正在收听的是 Motley Fool 的 Hidden Gems Invest。
You're listening to Motley Fool, Hidden Gems Invest.
和往常一样，节目里提到的人可能对他们讨论的股票有兴趣，而 Motley Fool 也可能有正式的推荐或反对意见，所以不要仅仅根据你听到的内容买卖股票。
As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.
所有个人理财内容都遵循 Motley Fool 的编辑标准，并且未经广告商批准。
All personal finance content follows The Motley Fool's editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.
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To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.
好了，Lou。
Alright, Lou.
我想聊聊过去一周左右数据中心领域的一些风波，但最近有一些新的民意调查显示数据中心有多不受欢迎。
I wanted to get to some of the drama around data centers that we've seen really take off over the last week or so, but there's been some new polling about how unpopular data centers are.
这件事之所以这么重要，是因为我可以这么说，现在人工智能的建设既支撑着市场，也支撑着经济。
The reason that this is so important is I I could make the argument that the AI build out is both holding up the market and the economy at this point.
那么，科技界是不是在这轮建设中走得太远了，就想在任何地方建任何东西？
So has the tech world just gone too far with this build out and just wanting to build anything anywhere?
这是不是一个政治问题？
Is this a political problem?
当这件事变成政治皮球时，你觉得风险因素在哪里？
Where does your head go with the risk factors with this becoming now a political football?
皮球。
Football.
对。
Yeah.
这是两党都反对的。
This is a bipartisan.
就是没人喜欢这个。
Just nobody likes this.
对吧？
Right?
我觉得这里面有很多问题，而且对AI来说都不太妙。
And I think there's a ton of things going on here, and none of it's really great for AI.
确实，你看，关于经济发展的承诺很多，比如富士康和苹果的工厂，最后都没建成。
I do think, you know, look, there's been a lot of promises on economic development, that Foxcom Apple plant that never got built.
最近这样的例子还挺多的。
There's just a lot of, like, recent examples.
而且这些设施都很难看。
And these are ugly.
那些巨大的、嗡嗡作响的数据中心。
Big, just humming centers.
它们一点都不美观。
They're not pretty.
但我觉得，AI行业必须面对两个大问题。
But look, there's two big things I think that the AI industry has to confront.
傲慢，以及目前他们的产品缺乏实用性。
Arrogance and a lack of just usefulness right now for their products.
说到傲慢，这可是个大问题。
On arrogance, this is a big one.
他们的回应方式对投诉太不重视了。
The messaging has been far too dismissive of complaints.
也许他们确实做到了水资源中和，但嘲笑提问的人，说人家是白痴，这就不对了。
Maybe they are water neutral, but to laugh at someone who's asking the question and say, you must be an imbecile.
这样可没法赢得当地人的心。
That's not a way to win hearts and minds on a local level.
对吧？
Okay?
大科技公司在沟通上确实有问题。
Big tech has a messaging problem.
他们传递的信息基本上就是：如果你蠢到不明白我们在拯救世界，那也不该妨碍我。
It's basically the message on this is if you're too stupid to understand we're saving the world, that shouldn't keep me back.
你应该做得更好。
You should do better.
对吧？
Okay?
不过，这也有些相关。
Somewhat related, though.
苹果工厂要建在我附近的时候，我可能会说，哦，我喜欢iPhone。
The Apple plant was coming near me, I could say, oh, I like iPhones.
我会带着一种自动化的语气说这话，或者别的什么。
I'd say it with an auto plan or whatever.
是的。
Yeah.
目前，对我们这些住在偏远地区的普通人来说，AI不过是高级搜索而已。
For now, for most of us normals living in flyover country, AI is just fancy search.
而且，你知道，尽管硅谷吹得天花乱坠，AI在说服消费者方面做得非常糟糕，没能让他们觉得这是必要的、有趣的、改变世界的，或者其他什么。
And if you want you know, for all the back padding in Silicon Valley, AI has done a terrible job of convincing consumers this is something that's necessary, interesting, world changing, whatever it is.
我觉得这其实就是一个简单的问题：为什么是我？
I think it's just a simple problem of why me?
对，就是这样。
And yeah.
我觉得大部分原因就是傲慢和宣传方式的问题。
I it's most of it's just arrogance and messaging.
那有没有解决办法呢？
Is there a solution here?
比如说，我听说过用数据中心产生的收入来替代房产税这种做法。
Is paying you know, I've I've heard about replacing property taxes with revenue that comes from the data center.
是不是有一些贿赂手段能对这些地方起作用，还是说这件事太不得人心，最后会闹得不可收拾？
Is there sort of like a bribe that is gonna work for some of these, or is this just is this just so unpopular that it's gonna become nuclear?
把它们放在……对。
Put them in Yeah.
这就对了，吉姆。
There you go, Jim.
我不能再说得更好了。
I can't say it better.
也许这就是解决办法。
Maybe maybe that is the solution.
也许埃隆·马斯克已经领先一步了。
Maybe Elon Musk is ahead of the game already.
一如既往。
As always.
这很有趣，因为看起来有时候推特上的讨论和硅谷的讨论，跟我们这边的讨论很不一样。
It is fascinating because it does seem like one of those times where the conversation on Twitter, the conversation in Silicon Valley is very different than the conversation that we have.
我住在美国中西部，就是那个被忽视的地方，你知道，我们那里不聊人工智能。
I'm I'm living in the Midwest in that flyover country, and, you know, we don't talk about AI.
就是不会提到这个话题。
It it just it doesn't come up.
所以我觉得硅谷需要好好想想这一点。
So something that I think Silicon Valley needs to get their head around.
好的。
Okay.
我们来看看今天关注的股票，请巴特从玻璃后面给我们讲讲他的看法。
Let's get to the stocks on our radar and bring in Bart for his thoughts from behind the glass.
吉姆，你先来。
Jim, you're up first.
这周你在关注什么？
What are you looking at this week?
我要讲一个疫情时期的宠儿，算是怀旧一下。
I'm gonna go to a COVID era darling throwback.
这只股票从疫情时期的高点已经跌了95%。
I it's a stock that's down 95% from its COVID area time.
大多数人觉得它已经是个死业务了，为什么要碰它呢？
Most people assume it's, you know, it's a dead business, and why would you ever wanna go here?
但他们完全忽略了背后的变化，我说的就是Peloton。
And they have completely missed what's going on under the hood, and I am talking about Peloton.
对。
Yes.
好。
Okay.
所以Peloton是那种刀片和刀架的模式。
So Peloton, it's a razor and blade model.
对吧？
Right?
你懂的。
You know?
就像我们要卖给你一台昂贵的跑步机或自行车，上面还绑了个iPad。
It's like we're gonna sell you an expensive treadmill or expensive, bike with an iPad strap to it.
当然，实际情况比这复杂一些，但你知道，这总是他们轻视它的理由。
It's a little more involved than that, of course, but, you know, that was always the dismissal.
而且，在疫情期间，那些非常聪明的高管们说，嘿。
And, you know, during COVID, the very, very smart people running it said, you know, hey.
这就是刀片和刀架的模式。
It's a razor and blade model.
刀架就是设备，刀片就是订阅。
The the razor is the the equipment and the blade is the subscription.
如果你了解刀片和刀架模式，你就会尽量便宜地卖刀架，因为你会靠不断卖刀片赚取源源不断的利润。
And if you know anything about razor and blade models, you sell the razor for as cheap as possible because you're gonna get that sweet, sweet stream of blades always sold on top of it.
他们说，但如果我们专注于刀架，花30亿美元囤货，把自己搞垮，因为我们是天才，所有人都会涌向我们，那会怎么样？
They said, but what if we focused on the razor instead and and spent $3,000,000,000 on inventory and blowing ourselves up because we're geniuses and everyone's gonna flock to us?
剧透一下。
Spoiler.
结果并没有发生。
Didn't happen.
他们为此丢了工作。
They paid with their jobs.
股价几乎跌没了，公司也差点破产。
Stock nearly the business nearly went out of went nearly went bankrupt.
他们不得不通过几年前一次非常昂贵的融资来拯救公司，更换了高管团队，而在这个过程中发生了一件有趣的事情。
They had to save the company via a really expensive financing they had a few years ago, replace the executive suite, and a funny thing happened along the way.
新任CEO彼得·斯特恩来自苹果和福特，他在那里曾负责订阅业务。
The CEO came over from Apple and Ford where he'd worked on subscription businesses before the new CEO, Peter Stern.
他们从烧钱机器变成了现金喷泉。
They turned from a cash furnace into a cash gushing.
比如，有人知道Peloton在最近一个财年产生了3.78亿美元的自由现金流吗？这还不包括前一年的3.24亿美元。
Like, does anyone know that Peloton in their most recent fiscal year produced $378,000,000 in free cash flow, which was on top of the 324,000,000 they did the year before?
这两年，彼得·斯特恩在那里大概待了18个月。
Those two years, Peter Stern's been there for about, I think, eighteen months.
他们所做的就是把现金堆积在资产负债表上。
And all they've done is they piled that cash up on the balance sheet.
他们还偿还了一些债务。
They paid a little bit of debt off.
但截至最近一个季度，他们拥有12亿多美元的现金和13亿美元的债务。
They but as of the most recent quarter, they have 1.2 and change billion dollars in cash and $1,300,000,000 in debt.
他们一直在公开喊话，说大概九月份会进行大规模再融资，因为没有投行愿意在八月干活。
They have screamed from the pulpit, We are going to do a mass refinancing probably in September because no investment banker wants to work in work in August.
他们几乎快做到债务中性了，而且这笔债务很快就会消失。
They're almost debt neutral guys, and it's gonna go away.
他们承诺，所谓至少今年会有三亿五千万美元的现金流。
They're they're promising at, quote, unquote, at least $350,000,000 in cash flow this year.
你会在未来一两个月内看到再融资，而今天股价还不到过去十二个月自由现金流的七倍。
You're gonna see a refinancing probably within the next month or two, and the stock today is trading for less than seven times trailing free cash flow.
七倍自由现金流，你不需要太多增长，而且他们马上就要彻底清理资产负债表了。
You don't need a lot of growth at seven times free cash flow, and it's about to clean up their balance sheet for good.
所以我看好Peloton。
So Peloton is my horse.
好的。
Alright.
我们得转到Lou那边了。
We gotta jump to Lou.
卢，这周你有什么推荐？
Lou, what do you got this week?
巴特，我简单说两句。
Bart, real quick.
我在关注联合太平洋铁路公司。
I'm looking at Union Pacific.
股票代码是UNP。
UNP is the ticker.
它最有名的是作为美国西海岸双头垄断的一半。
Best known as one half of The US West Coast duopoly.
这也是我小时候玩的那套火车玩具。
It's also the train set I had as a kid.
不过，联合太平洋正试图收购诺福克南方铁路，打造美国第一条横贯东西的铁路线。
But, Union Pacific is trying to buy Norfolk Southern, establish the first US coast to coast.
这周，地面运输委员会算是正式启动了审批流程。
This week, the Surface Transportation Board kind of kicked off the clock.
对联合太平洋来说，好消息是这笔交易很可能在2027年底前完成。
The good news here for Union Pacific is it means it probably could get done by the end of twenty twenty seven.
从政治角度看，这是好事。
For political reasons, that's good.
坏消息是，那还有很长一段时间。
The bad news is that's a long ways away.
如果做得好，这笔交易真的能改变经济格局。
Done right, this deal could really change the economics.
我目前持观望态度，但我会密切关注。
I'm on the sidelines here, but I'm watching close.
好的，巴特。
Alright, Bart.
你有那种当衣架用的动感单车，或者模型火车。
You have stationary bikes that act as clothes hangers or model trains.
这周你关注哪些股票？
Which stocks going on your watch list this week?
火车，我可不懂。
Trains, I know not.
我觉得Peloton仍然是一家有创新力的公司，而且我认为它还有很大的增长空间。
I think Peloton is still an innovative company, and I think there's a lot of room for growth.
但我忍不住想，他们的董事会会议总是围绕着：各位，如果我们能撑到下一次疫情，我们就没问题了。
But I can't help but think their board meetings always center around, guys, if we could just hang on till the next pandemic, we'll be good.
好的。
Alright.
我喜欢这个说法。
I like it.
今天的时间就到这里了。
That's all the time we have for today.
感谢收听。
Thanks for listening.
我们明天再见。
We'll see you here tomorrow.
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