迪克体育用品面临类似Foot Locker的问题

迪克体育用品的股票得了脚气。

Dick's Sporting Goods stock has a case of athlete's foot.

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欢迎收听 Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资。

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我是主持人泰勒·克劳。

I'm your host, Tyler Crowe.

今天和我一起的是长期为 Fool 撰稿的瑞秋·沃伦和马特·弗兰克尔。

And today, I'm joined by long time Fool contributors, Rachel Warren and Matt Frankel.

各位，财报季已经慢慢接近尾声了。

Guys, the earnings season has been winding down a little bit.

我今天早些时候在找新闻，但消息有点少。

I'm looking for stories earlier today, but the news was looking a little thin.

然后迪克体育用品发布了财报，看股票的反应，我们不得不聊聊这个。

And then Dick's Sporting Goods reported earnings, and based on the stock reaction, we had to talk about it.

在我们录制节目的此刻，迪克体育用品的股价下跌了大约27%，这是在公司公布财报并更新业绩指引之后发生的。

Shares of Dick's Sporting Goods stock is down about 27% as we're taping right now after the company reported earnings and updated guidance.

现在，像大多数投资者一样，我猜这意味着消息不好，但我们已经看到很多公司本季度业绩不错，结果股价却在随后的市场反应中遭受重挫。

Now, like most investors, I would assume this means the news was bad, but we've seen, like, a lot of companies post decent results this quarter, only kinda see their shares take it on the chin in the in the ensuing market reaction.

所以，瑞秋，这次的情况是这样吗？

So, Rachel, is that the case here?

给我们讲讲发生了什么，你们对迪克体育用品的财报有什么看法和反应？

Give us a rundown of what happened, and what were your guys' thoughts and reactions to what what Dick's Sporting Goods had to say here?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，确实有一些令人担忧的数字出现了。

I mean, there was actually some concerning numbers that came in.

这个话题聊起来挺有意思的。

It's interesting to chat about.

我们在这个节目里不太关注零售业。

We don't spend a ton of time focusing on retail here on this show.

所以迪克体育用品这个季度在营收和利润两方面都没达到预期。

So Dick's actually missed on both the top and bottom lines for the quarter.

他们的调整后每股收益是3.53美元。

They had adjusted earnings per share come in at $3.53.

而华尔街的预期是3.76美元。

Wall Street was looking for $3.76.

营收略低于60亿美元。

Revenue dragged a bit just under 6,000,000,000.

华尔街的预期比这个稍微高一点。

Wall Street was, looking, for a little bit more than that.

这很大程度上要归咎于去年迪克体育用品收购的Foot Locker业务。

So a lot of this is going back to the Foot Locker business, which Dick's Sporting Goods acquired last year.

这是拖累业绩的主要原因。

That's the primary culprit behind this drag.

有意思的是，迪克的核心同名门店表现还不错。

And it's interesting because you have the core Dick's namesake stores.

他们公布了大约5%的同店销售额增长。

They posted a roughly 5% comparable sales increase.

Foot Locker门店的同店销售额实际上下降了3.6%，管理层表示，他们推出的高知名度鞋款减少了。

Foot Locker stores actually saw comps slide 3.6%, And you had management saying that they had fewer high profile shoe launches.

折扣市场竞争越来越激烈，这迫使他们降价以保护市场份额。

It's an increasingly competitive discounted market that's actually forcing them to cut prices to protect their market share.

但另一个有趣的点是，这也与所谓的“耐克涟漪效应”有关。

But the other thing that's interesting here is this is also tied to the broader, what's called, the Nike ripple effect.

我们看到管理层基本上指出了缺乏高知名度的运动鞋发布。

So we saw management essentially call out a lack of high profile sneaker launches.

他们把矛头指向了上游的主要合作伙伴，这些合作伙伴可以说正陷入创意低谷。

They're pointing upstream to major partners who are, you know, stuck in a creative lull, if you will.

而且你要知道，Foot Locker历来依赖那些经典鞋型和复古款式的发布。

And, you know, you gotta bear in mind, Foot Locker has historically relied on these legacy silhouettes, retro launches.

所以当消费者热情降温时，Dick's首先感受到了压力。

And so Dick's is really feeling the pain first when consumer hype slows down.

另一个关键数字是，总库存同比激增了63%。

Another key number, total inventory surged 63% year over year.

现在，显然他们还在消化Foot Locker的收购，但他们积压了大量库存，可能正在寻找很多清仓促销的机会，这对消费者来说是好事，但对业务和投资者来说可不是好事。

Now, obviously, they're still absorbing the Foot Locker acquisition, but they're carrying a lot of inventory, probably looking for a lot of, you know, clearance sales and promotions, which, you know, great for consumers, not great for the business, not great for investors.

更糟的是，Dick's大幅下调了全年盈利预期。

And to top it all off, Dick slashed its full year earnings guidance, considerably.

所以这次财报对这个业务来说确实不太理想。

So really not a great readout for this business.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，数字确实不好看，但你说得对。

I mean, the numbers weren't great, but, I mean, you're right.

对我来说，最明显的下滑，几乎和管理层说的内容一样重要，而不仅仅是数字本身。

To to me, the sharp decline, it's almost as much as what management said, and not just the numbers.

我是说，CEO特别提到了，引用一下，“运动鞋和运动服市场促销活动日益增多”，还说情况在整个季度中不断恶化，这可不是你想从管理层那里听到的话。

I mean, the CEO called out the, quote, increasingly promotional athletic footwear and apparel market, said that conditions deteriorated as the quarter progressed, which is something you really don't like hearing from management.

他还提到，Foot Locker 在打折最厉害的品类上直接暴露的风险很大。

Also said Foot Locker has a lot of exposure directly to the categories getting discounted the most.

所以这里就提几点。

So just a couple things to point out here.

所以，Dick's 的股价在财报前今年已经跌了10%，现在表现就更差了。

So, I mean, Dick's stock was down 10% year to date going into this, so now it's really underperforming.

这显然是鞋类行业的一个周期性问题。

It's clearly a cyclical problem in the footwear space.

你看耐克、安德玛，甚至 Academy Sports——我觉得它们是最直接的对比对象——还有 ONON Holdings，它们也都在下跌。

I mean, if you look at Nike, Under Armour, even Academy Sports, which is I would call their closest direct comparison, and ONON Holdings, they're all underperforming too.

你知道，Dick's 有大规模的股票回购授权。

You know, Dick's has a large buyback authorization.

这是我在财报里读到的关键点之一，有30亿美元。

It's one of the key things I read in the earnings report, $3,000,000,000.

我很好奇他们会不会加快回购，来向市场传递一个信号。

I'm curious to see if they accelerate their repurchases to kind of send the market a signal here.

你知道吗，在这些电话会议里，我最喜欢的一点就是管理层那种绕来绕去的解释，试图说明为什么会发生这一切。

You know, one of my favorite things in, like, these conference calls every once in a while is the management word salad that we get of trying to explain why all this happened.

我觉得这次会议里最经典的一句就是他们提到了地缘政治问题，说这显然影响了鞋子的销售。

One of the best ones I think I saw in this conference call was they mentioned geopolitical troubles, which apparently is affecting shoe sales.

你看，有些解释还能信，但我不太确定，霍尔木兹海峡的关闭是不是真的影响了世界杯之后有多少人买耐克鞋。

Look, some things are believable, but I don't know if, you know, closure of the Strait Of Hormuz is exactly affecting how many people are buying Nikes, and after the World Cup here.

所以也许吧，但我们走着瞧。

So maybe, but we'll see.

我觉得真正让我印象深刻的一点，瑞秋你也提到了，就是Foot Locker。

I the thing that really pointed it it stuck out to me, and Rachel, you mentioned it here too, was Foot Locker specifically.

这次收购迪克体育用品公司算是有点冒险，我不想说太轻率，但这确实跟他们平时做的有点不一样。

This was an acquisition that Dick's kinda took I I don't wanna say took a flyer on, that would be a little too flippant, but this was slightly different than what they have normally been doing.

就像你说的，这更偏向时尚潮流，非常依赖签名鞋的发布之类的。

Like you said, it's a little bit more fashion trend, you know, very dependent on releases of signature shoes and stuff like that.

而且这还算是收购后的消化期吧。

And it's still I would call it like indigestion or of the acquisition.

你们觉得这次收购是个错误吗，还是说现在下结论还太早了？

Is was this miss acquisition a mistake in your guys' opinion, or maybe is it a little too soon to call it that?

我觉得现在说它是错误还太早，但说它进展不顺绝对不早。

I mean, I I'd say it's too soon to call it a mistake, but it's not too soon to say that it's definitely going poorly.

你知道，这两件事不是一回事。

You know, those aren't the same thing.

就像瑞秋提到的，迪克把全年盈利预期下调了18%，这几乎全是因为Foot Locker。

You know, Dick's cut their full year earnings guidance, as Rachel mentioned, by 18%, and it's almost entirely because of Foot Locker.

正如我说的，整个鞋类行业的环境都在恶化。

It's in a deteriorating environment, for the entire footwear industry, as I said.

这不只是Foot Locker的问题。

It's not just a Foot Locker problem.

这是一次扭转型收购。

This was a turnaround acquisition.

你不能只过了四个季度就下判断。

You can't judge that after just four quarters.

公司正在采取正确的措施。

The company's making the right moves.

收购后的第一年，他们关闭了110家门店。

They closed a 110 stores in in year one after the acquisition.

所以他们买的是一个周期性转型的项目，但周期立刻对他们不利。

So they bought a cyclical turnaround play, and the cycle immediately went against them.

所以现在说长期来看是不是好棋还为时过早，但进展确实不顺利。

So it's it's too soon to tell if it's ultimately gonna be a good move long term, but it's not going well.

对。

Yeah.

确实是这样。

That that's definitely the case.

我来补充一些数据，他们大幅下调了全年指引，原本预计全年每股收益在13.27美元到14.27美元之间。

I mean, to put some numbers to that as well, the the slashing of their full year guidance, you know, they were originally looking for full year earnings per share between $13.27 and $14.27.

现在他们预计在10.94美元到11.94美元之间，这是最高值。

Now they're looking for $10.94 to $11.94 on the high end.

所以这确实是个大幅下调。

So significant downgrade there.

我同意马特的观点。

I agree with Matt.

我不觉得我们现在就能看到最终结果，但看着确实挺有意思的。

I don't necessarily think that we can, you know, see the final story from where we're at now, but it's interesting to see.

我觉得迪克收购富乐客，是想抓住年轻消费者群体，试图重振核心业务。

I mean, I think that Dick's acquired Foot Locker with the idea of kind of tapping into that younger consumer demographic, looking to sort of revitalize the core business.

还有一点很有意思，迪克历来在零售业里算是比较受宠的，应对经济逆风比同行做得更好。

And what's interesting as well is Dick's has historically been a bit more of a retail darling that managed economic headwinds better than its peers.

我觉得今天看到的，并不是对单一糟糕季度的反应。

And I think what we're seeing today, it isn't, you know, a reaction to a single bad quarter.

我觉得似乎有更广泛的担忧，也许是意识到整合富乐客这笔收购，会比最初承诺的花费更高、速度更慢，甚至更侵蚀利润率。

I think there seems to be this broader concern, maybe realization that integrating this Foot Locker acquisition is gonna be a much costlier, slower, and maybe more margin degrading endeavor than initially promised.

而且，我们之前在节目里也聊过K型消费的现实，但用这个业务来看，确实挺值得关注的。

And, you know, I know we've talked a bit about the the k shaped consumer reality on the show before, but it's something that's interesting to look at with this business.

我不想过度解读这些迹象，但你也看到了，迪克的核心业务增长了5%。

I don't wanna, you know, read into the tea leaves too much, but you you saw that core Dick's business grow 5%.

我们看到，中高端郊区的消费者仍然会进店购买高端装备，但很多传统上会在Foot Locker购物的年轻消费者，真的被通货膨胀压得喘不过气来。

We're seeing that, you know, mid to high end suburban consumers still walking in and buying that premium gear, but a lot of the younger demographic that traditionally would shop at Foot Locker is really getting tapped out by inflation.

我觉得我们也得把这个因素考虑进去。

And I do think that we have to also look at that as a factor here.

嗯，这肯定比说地缘政治担忧让人们不买高端运动服要合理得多。

Well, there's certainly a much more logical conclusion than saying that geopolitical concerns is keeping people from buying their premium athletic wear.

所以我更倾向于你的观点，而不是管理层说的那些。

So I kind of buy your case a little bit more than what management was saying there.

广告之后，我们继续。现在还是财报季，所以我们要看看上个季度可能被忽略的一些财报。

Coming up after the break, you know, it's still earning season, so we're gonna dip into a couple of earnings that may have slipped through the crack this past quarter.

我今天早上读《华尔街日报》，其中一篇头条报道是关于CROX的。

I was reading the Wall Street Journal this morning, and one of the, like lead stories was on CROX.

我感觉就像《星球大战》里的那个场景，就是那种“哦，这个名字我好久没听过了”的感觉。

And I kind of felt like that scene in Star Wars where it's like, oh, that's a name I haven't heard in a very long time.

你知道吗，这其实挺有意思的。

You know, it was actually interesting.

他们谈的是跟迪克体育用品相反的策略，就是说要控制一些产量，清理一下库存。

They were talking kind of taking the opposite approach of Dick's Sporting Goods where it's like, we're gonna hold back some of our production and clear some inventory.

对，我们现在要吃点亏。

Yeah, we're gonna take it down the chin now.

但这个策略效果还不错，股价也因此受益不少。

But it's a strategy that worked out pretty well and the and the stock is benefiting a lot from it.

而且，这公司我们也好久没聊过了。

And that kind of, hey, this is a company we haven't discussed in a while.

这故事挺有意思的。

It was a kind of an interesting story.

我想再深入一点。

I want to take that a little bit step further.

我们快到这个财报季的尾声了。

We're coming to the end of earning season here.

明天我们有英伟达的财报，这个我们肯定会讲，但现在确实没有那么多公司要出来了。

We've got Nvidia tomorrow, which we're definitely gonna cover, but there's not certainly not as many coming to the fore right now.

所以随着这个季度接近尾声，我想给你们一个机会，也许可以提一下那些在我们忙着报道财报时可能被忽略的公司，那些我们没来得及讲，但你觉得‘我真的很喜欢’或者‘我不喜欢看到的’公司。

So with this quarter coming to the close, wanted to give you guys an opportunity to maybe highlight a company that may have fallen through the cracks when we were trying to cover stuff with earnings that we didn't get to, but you're like, I really liked or maybe you didn't like what you saw.

马特，我想从你开始。

Matt, I wanna start with you.

你说你想谈谈沃克和邓洛普。

You said you wanted to talk about Walker and Dunlop.

我觉得我听到CROX的次数比你多，因为我儿子只穿那个牌子。

I feel like I hear CROX more than you do because that's all my son will wear.

所以……

So

很合理。

Very fair.

它们绝对不是过时的鞋，绝对不是。

They're they're not they're not def they're not, like, yesterday's shoe by any means.

不过，是的，我想提一下Walker and Dunlop，这只股票我在我的投资组合里持有一段时间了，我觉得它财报后没有得到足够的关注，或者说至少没有得到正确的关注。

But, yeah, I wanted to call out Walker and Dunlop of all it's a stock I've owned in my portfolio for a while, and I feel like it didn't get enough attention or at least the right kind of attention after its earnings report.

我的意思是，表面上的数字很难看，而且可以理解，市场就是盯着这些数字。

I mean, the headline numbers were ugly, and understandably, that's what the market fixated on.

盈利同比大幅下滑。

Earnings were down sharply year over year.

公司因为欺诈调查相关的贷款回购，承担了2300万美元的费用。

The company had $23,000,000 in charges tied to loan repurchases from a fraud investigation.

还有2100万美元的信贷损失准备金。

There was a $21,000,000 credit loss provision.

但在表面之下，有很多值得喜欢的地方。

But below the surface, there was a lot to like.

所以，我的意思是，你和我都反复说过同样的话，不只是对Walker and Dunlop，对很多房地产公司也是如此。

So, I mean, you and I have repeated the same thing about not just Walker and Dunlop, but a lot of these real estate companies.

他们只需要房地产市场好转，然后一切都会好起来的。

They just need the real estate market to turn around, and then everything's gonna be fine.

这句话我们重复了多少次了，泰勒？

We've repeated that line how many times, Tyler?

所以，我的意思是，但他们的市场份额在增长。

So, I mean but their market share is growing.

他们是多户住宅贷款的主要发起人，这些贷款由HUD、房利美，还有所有政府机构担保。

They're leading originator of multifamily loans guaranteed by HUD, by Fannie, by, you know, by all the the government, agencies.

他们的市场份额从今年年初的约11%增长到了现在的超过14%。

Their market share in that went from about 11% at the start of this year to over 14% now.

所以，这种表现让公司在市场复苏时能占据有利位置。

So that's the kind of thing that sets itself up nicely for when the market recovers.

所以，这不仅仅是水涨船高。

So it's not just, you know, the rising tide lifts all ships.

在困难时期市场份额增长的公司，更能抓住反弹的机会。

Companies that are growing their market share in the tough times are better set up to capture that rebound.

服务组合，这是很多人忽视的业务部分，不仅同比增长了6%，而且是可预测的收入。

The servicing portfolio, which is part of the business a lot of people overlook, not only it grew 6% year over year, it's predictable revenue.

这些贷款就是每次有人还款时，他们能收一点手续费。

These are just loans are they get a little fee every time someone pays their loan.

但那个服务组合里超过50%的贷款，大约价值1460亿美元，会在五年内到期，这自然形成了一个再融资的管道，他们能从中赚不少钱。

But over 50% of that servicing portfolio, which is about a $146,000,000,000 worth of loans, over 50% matures within five years, that creates kind of a built in pipeline of refinancing where they get they actually make a lot of money from.

目前这只股票的市盈率不到调整后收益的10倍。

The stock trades for less than 10 times adjusted earnings right now.

它之所以这么便宜是有原因的，但这份财报里值得看好的地方比市场给的要多。

It trades there for a reason, but there's more to like in this earnings report than the market gave

市场给的要多。

it credit for.

我们确实同意，对很多这类公司来说，关键就是商业房地产市场回暖的时候。

We do agree when it's like for a lot of these, it's when the commercial real estate market comes back.

但我觉得我们反复讨论的一个点是，Walker & Dunlop在2010年代末、2020年代初的情况。

But I think one thing we have gone back and forth about a lot is with Walker and Dunlop specifically was the late twenty tens, early twenty twenties.

他们当时有点疯狂收购，而且不一定是在自己擅长的领域，买了一些周边和相关的业务。

They went on a bit of a buying spree, not necessarily in their wheelhouse either, some kind of like ancillary and tangential businesses.

当我听到像“哦，他们因为欺诈不得不回购一些贷款，而且信贷准备金也在增加”这样的话时，我开始回想起那些收购。

When I hear things like, oh, well, they had to buy back some loans because of fraud and, you know, increasing credit provisions, it started to make me go back to that.

也许其中一些收购并不像他们说的那么好，也许他们——我不想说他们疏忽大意，但确实还没完全搞清楚如何把这些业务整合进公司。

Maybe some of these acquisitions weren't as good as they had said, and that maybe they're I don't wanna say asleep at the wheel, but still not quite figured out how to integrate all of these into their company.

这个评价公平吗？

Is that a is that a fair assessment?

对。

Yeah.

他们不仅像当时很多房地产公司那样大肆收购，而且某些收购还付了过高的价格。

Not only did they go on a buying spree like a of real real estate companies did at that time, they overpaid for certain acquisitions.

不过也不是所有收购都糟糕。

They're they weren't all bad.

他们的评估业务，叫Apprise，其实做得相当扎实。

Their appraisal business, which is called Apprise, is actually a a pretty solid business.

我只是觉得他们为很多部分付了太多钱。

I just think they overpaid for a lot of the parts.

当时还有一个房地产投资银行业务，专门做那种，比如，卖当时流行的税收抵免。

There was the real estate investment banking business that specialized in, like, the like, selling the tax credits that that were going on at the time.

你知道，他们为很多这些业务支付了过高的价格，这是个很大的问题。

You know, they overpaid for a lot of this, and that's a a big problem.

并不是说整合进来的业务本身不好。

It's not necessarily that the integrated businesses are are no good.

他们进行了大规模的收购，为其中一些业务支付了很多钱。

They they went on an acquisition spree, and they paid a lot of money for some of these components.

嗯，就像你说的，我们只能等着看，也许当商业房地产市场好转时，一些可能不太好的投资或收购能走上正轨，如果真能那样的话。

Well, like you said, we'll just have to see, you know, maybe when the commercial real estate market turns around, some of these maybe not so great investments or acquisitions can fall into place, I guess if it will.

而且看起来主题是扭亏为盈的故事，或者那些表现不太好的公司，因为，瑞秋，你带来的这个例子是CVS健康。

And it seems like the theme is turnaround stories or maybe companies that aren't doing as hot because, Rachel, the one you brought to the table here was CVS Health Care.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得讨论一家医疗保健公司会很有意思。

I thought it'd be interesting to talk about a health care business.

说到CVS，你知道，我想很多人自然会想到社区门店的货架和药房柜台，但CVS实际上通过其Aetna部门，是美国最大的医疗保险公司之一。

And CVS, you know, I think a lot of people obviously think of the the neighborhood store aisles, pharmacy counters, but CVS is actually one of the larger health care insurers in America, through their Aetna division.

所以这个季度他们超出了预期。

And so they beat expectations this quarter.

在经历了一系列艰难的季度之后，这个季度对业务来说特别好，我们稍后会详细讨论。

It was a particularly good quarter for the business after a a series of of difficult quarters, which we'll talk about in a bit.

调整后每股收益为2.58美元，而华尔街的预期是1.87美元。

Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.58 against Wall Street estimates of a dollar 87.

总收入增长了超过7%，达到约1060亿美元，管理层实际上还上调了全年利润指引。

Total revenue rose over 7% to about a $106,000,000,000, and management actually raised their full year profit guidance.

CVS Health目前受益的一个动态是医疗保健领域的更广泛趋势。

One of the dynamics that CVS Health is benefiting from right now, is just broader trends in the health care space.

我们看到很多大型医院连锁机构指出，消费者在推迟看医生。

We've seen a lot of major hospital chains note that consumers are putting off doctor visits.

由于家庭预算紧张，他们安排的选择性手术减少了，这真的是一个非常不幸的趋势。

They're scheduling fewer elective surgeries due to tight household budgets, which is a really, really unfortunate trend.

当然，这个趋势的另一面是，当人们不做手术时，保险公司的开支就会减少，因为他们赔付的医疗索赔变少了。

The flip side of that trend, of course, is when people skip surgeries, it lowers expenses for an insurance company because they're paying out fewer medical claims.

所以对CVS及其Aetna网络来说，手术减少意味着他们的医疗成本下降了。

So for CVS and their Aetna network, fewer procedures means their medical costs decreased.

因此，这基本上就传导到了他们的医疗福利部门。

And so essentially, this trickled over to their health care benefits division.

如果你看他们的报告，他们的营业收入比分析师最初预测的高出超过十亿美元，这都要归功于我之前提到的那些行业动态。

If you're looking at their their report, they saw their operating income rise by more than a billion dollars above what analysts had originally predicted, all going back, to to these industry dynamics that I mentioned.

对。

Yeah.

是个好季度。

A good quarter.

而且关于CVS，我们又要回到Walker和Dunlop的整合上来。

And the thing is with CVS is like we're again, going back to the integration of Walker and Dunlop.

这里我们看到的是零售药店和大型保险公司的结合。

Here we have a retail pharmacy combining with a major insurer.

这段婚姻并不算完美。

It's it hasn't exactly been a perfect marriage here.

过去几年，股价也反映了这一点。

And the stock has reflected that over the past couple of years.

从下调盈利预测到关闭数百家门店，再到CEO频繁更替，这家公司最近确实不容易。

So between the lowering of the earnings forecasts, it's closed hundreds of stores, the CEO has been a kind of a revolving door as of late.

对这家公司来说，日子并不好过。

It's it it hasn't been easy for this company.

不过话说回来，它的股价目前是预期盈利的11倍。

But having said that, it the the stock trades for, 11 times forward earnings estimate.

所以很明显，市场对它的评价并不高。

So it clearly, the market is pricing this then as not doing great.

作为投资者，你现在是把它当作价值股来买，期待它会有转机吗？

You as the investor, are are you buying this as like a value stock now with like a turnaround in play here?

还是说，你仍然觉得它还在转型中，需要时间？

Or are you still seeing this as, yeah, this is still a work in progress.

我以后会再关注这只股票的。

I'm gonna check back later kind of stock.

这确实是我在观望的股票。

This this is what I'm watching from the sidelines for sure.

有几个原因。

And there's a few reasons for that.

我的意思是，这家公司过去几年面临严重的运营问题。

I mean, this is a company that's faced serious operational issues over the last few years.

你知道，不仅仅是几年前整合Aetna收购的困难。

You know, it's not just a matter of of the difficulties of integrating the Aetna acquisition from a number of years ago.

当然，他们是美国最大的药品福利管理公司之一。

Of course, they're one of the largest pharmacy benefit managers, in The US.

他们还面临更高的医疗保险使用率带来的成本，这也影响了增长故事。

They were dealing with, costs from higher Medicare utilization rates that also ate into the growth story.

然后在2024年、2025年，他们不断下调预期。

And then 2024, 2025, they continuously were adjusting expectations downward.

因为保险成本上升和零售药店市场低迷，他们不得不在多个季度下调盈利预期。

They had to cut earnings forecasts in multiple quarters because of rising insurance costs and a slow retail pharmacy market.

所以，有很多因素在起作用，给业务带来了挑战。

So there there's been a lot of factors at play that have posed challenges for the business.

不过，他们确实启动了一个20亿美元的成本削减计划。

Now they did, you know, launch a a $2,000,000,000 cost cutting initiative.

进行了裁员。

There were layoffs.

管理层关闭了表现不佳的门店。

Management closed underperforming stores.

新CEO戴维·乔伊纳上任了。

You've got a new CEO, David Joyner, David Joyner.

他们的CFO布莱恩·纽曼也彻底改革了保险业务。

You've got their CFO, Brian Newman, overhauled their insurance.

承保方面，基本上退出了不赚钱的业务线，同时加强了对医疗赔付率的成本控制。

Underwriting, really kinda moved away from the unprofitable business lines, and they also put in stricter cost controls over their medical benefit ratio.

所以我觉得我们开始看到他们垂直整合战略的迹象了，你知道，就是药店、药房福利管理、保险提供商这几块。

So I think we are starting to see the signs that their vertical integration strategy, which is, you know, you've got the drugstore side, the pharmacy benefit manager side, the insurance provider side.

我觉得我们开始看到成果显现了。

I think we're seeing the results starting to show there.

我觉得现在说转型已经完成还为时过早。

I'd say it's too soon, to declare that the turnaround is complete.

这家公司长期派息，但我觉得如果你在找收益型股票，可能还有其他更有吸引力的机会。

This is a long time dividend payer, but I think if you're looking for income stocks, that are probably other compelling opportunities to find.

其中一个

One of

转型股的特点就是转型总是比任何人预期的要长得多。

the things with turnaround stocks is the turnaround always takes way longer than anyone ever expected.

休息之后，我们要进入邮件环节。

Coming up after the break, we're gonna jump into the mail bag.

大家好。

Hey everyone.

简单提醒一下。

Just a quick reminder.

如果你想给我们发邮件，请发送到 podcasts@fool.com。

If you wanna get in an email to us, send it to us at podcasts@fool.com.

是 podcast，带个 s。

That's podcast with an s.

我们也会把邮箱地址放在节目简介里。

We'll also put the email in the description for the show.

老规矩，邮件尽量简短，方便我们在节目里读出来。

As always, keep it short enough we can read on air.

保持愚乐精神，另外我们不能提供个性化投资建议，免得惹上 SEC 的麻烦。

Keep it foolish, and we can't give personalized advice so we don't get in trouble with the SEC.

今天的问题来自斯特林·克拉克。

So today's question comes from Sterling Clark.

而且，马特，他特别提到了你，所以我们想确保你参与这期节目。

And, Matt, he actually named you personally, so we wanted to make sure that you were on the show when we did this.

问题是，嗨，傻瓜们。

Question is, hi, fools.

马特·弗兰克尔怎么看UPS股票，是价值股还是价值陷阱？

What does Matt Frankel think of a UPS stock as a value stock or a value trap?

今天有点主题性。

A little bit of a theme here today.

斯特林说他在UPS工作，你可以看到他们正在翻新建筑以提高分拣效率。

He, Sterling says he works at UPS, and you can see that they're working on remodeling their buildings in order to improve sorting efficiencies.

它仍然有吸引人的股息收益率，但另一方面，亚马逊一直表示想抢UPS的生意。

It still has an attractive dividend yield, but the other hand, and Amazon keeps indicating it wants to take UPS' lunch.

你相信这个转型故事吗？

Do you buy the turnaround story?

马特，既然问题指向你，我们先从你开始。

Matt, we'll start with you since it was directed to you.

瑞秋，如果你有什么想法，也可以分享。

And, Rachel, if you have any thoughts, can share them as well.

对。

Yeah.

我就知道这个问题会抛给我。

I'm not surprised that was directed to me.

我特别喜欢有价值的股票。

I love a good value stock.

这是大家都知道的事。

Everybody knows that.

但听众提到的其实是UPS所谓的网络重组计划，而且这个计划已经在数据上有所体现了。

But what what the listener is referring to is what UPS calls its network reconfiguration program, and it it is showing up in the numbers.

UPS预计今年全年能从这项计划中获得近30亿美元的收益。

UPS expects almost $3,000,000,000 of program benefits for this full year.

不过遗憾的是，其中一部分是裁掉大约3万个运营岗位，因为网络在物理上变得更小，而且自动化程度更高，这正是他刚才提到的。

Unfortunately, part of it's cutting about 30,000 jobs, operational positions, specifically as the network becomes both physically smaller and a lot more automated, which is what he was referring to there.

所以对于亚马逊那部分，我倒不是特别担心。

So I'm not terribly worried about the Amazon part.

UPS已经清掉了大量他们所谓的低质量亚马逊订单。

U UPS, they've already removed a ton of what they call low quality Amazon volume.

那不是他们赚钱的地方。

That's not where they make their money.

你不可能靠免费的两日达送货赚钱。

You don't make your money by, you know, free two day shipping.

你赚钱靠的是医疗设备，还有那些更专业化的运输方式。

You make your money from, you know, the medical equipment and and, you know, more more specialized forms of of moving things from one place to another.

所以我觉得，亚马逊并没有真的抢走UPS的生意。

So the way I would put it is Amazon didn't didn't really steal UPS' lunch.

UPS只是把不想吃的那部分还回去了。

UPS just gave back the part that it didn't really wanna eat.

所以第二季度，UPS上调了业绩预期。

So in q two, UPS raised its guidance.

他们的营业利润实现了两位数的增长。

They posted double digit growth in operating profit.

他们的股息收益率是6.4%，听起来可能挺吸引人的。

Their dividend yield is 6.4%, which might sound attractive.

这大概占了公司自由现金流的98%。

It represents about 98% of the company's free cash flow.

所以这个派息率算是相当高了。

So that's a pretty high payout ratio.

他们并不是每年都提高股息，但已经连续27年没有削减过股息了。

They've they don't they haven't raised their dividend every year, but they haven't cut it for twenty seven consecutive years.

所以他们挺想维持这个长期记录的。

So that's a pretty big kind of history they wanna maintain.

未来几年，他们需要自由现金流有显著增长，才能有理由维持现在的股息水平。

They're gonna need some serious free cash flow growth over the next few years to justify keeping it where it is.

所以我不至于说这是个股息陷阱。

So I I wouldn't go so far as to call this a dividend trap.

市场上确实有很多股息陷阱，但我觉得这个不算。

There are plenty of dividend traps in the market, and I I wouldn't say this is one of them.

如果他们能增加高端快递量，也就是非亚马逊部分的业务，同时让网络更高效，而他们显然正在这么做。

If they can grow their their premium shipping volume, meaning like the the non Amazon parts of the business, while making the network more efficient, which they're clearly doing.

那这里可能会成为一个很好的价值投资点，但这是个很大的假设，这也是为什么它现在股价在这个位置。

It could end up being a great a great value here, but that's a big if, and that's why it's trading where it is right now.

稍微相关一点，今天CNBC有个报道说UPS在大力投资医药和冷链物流这些领域，跟运送GLP-1药物之类的有点关系。

Slightly related, there was a story on CNBC today about UPS investing heavily in things like pharmaceutical, and cold chain logistics, a little bit related to, you know, shipping GLP one drugs and stuff like that.

我觉得那也会是其中的一部分。

I I assume that's gonna be part of that, as well.

Rachel，你觉得呢？

Rachel, don't you think?

对。

Yeah.

确实是这样。

That's absolutely the case.

UPS真正关注的重点之一，我是说，每个季度都在增加数十亿增长的是像减肥药和糖尿病药物这样的特殊运输。

One of the things that UPS has really focused on, I mean, is adding billions to their growth every quarter is specialized shipments like weight loss and diabetes medications.

这些药都是高价值的药物。

And these are, you know, high value drugs.

它们需要非常精确的温控冷藏，从工厂到药房都要有高端的追踪传感器。

They require very precise temperature controlled refrigeration, premium tracking sensors from factory to pharmacy.

所以，通过把这些高利润的医疗包裹送到他们新自动化设施里处理，UPS每个包裹能赚更多的钱。

And so by routing these high margin medical packages through their newly automated facilities, UPS can generate significantly more profit per box.

而且，那个设施的改造不只是表面功夫。

And that building remodel isn't just a cosmetic upgrade.

你知道，他们真的在从传统的人工分拣转向自动化枢纽。

You know, they're really shifting away from old school manual sorting, automated hubs.

这显然是他们一直在做的事情，但自动化分拣设施每个包裹的成本比传统设施便宜大约30%。

This is obviously something that they've been doing for a while, but running an automated sorting building, it's about 30% cheaper per package than a traditional one.

所以，医疗物流这块在更大的转型中确实非常有意思。

And so the health care logistics piece is is a really, really interesting one kind of within that broader shift.

但升级这些设施需要大量资金。

But upgrading these facilities takes a lot of cash.

他们承诺在未来几年再投入数十亿美元，来扩展他们的全球医疗运输网络。

They've committed billions more to expand just their global health care shipping network over the next few years.

你知道，他们每年要支付超过50亿美元的股息。

You know, they they pay over $5,000,000,000 a year out in dividends.

我不认为UPS是个价值陷阱。

I I I don't think that UPS is a value trap.

我觉得这是我们今天一直在讨论的另一个转型故事。

I think it's another one of the turnaround stories we've been talking about today.

这里面有很多变数。

There's a lot of moving parts.

一方面，网络在缩小。

You know, on the one hand, the network is getting smaller.

变得更精简了。

It's getting leaner.

效率也在提高。

It's getting more efficient.

但是自动化方面只有在这些建筑里真的装满包裹的情况下才能省钱。

But the automation side only saves you money if if they're you know, if these buildings are actually full of packages.

如果整体经济放缓，零售运输量下降，这些非常昂贵的分拣设备可能会闲置。

If the broader economy slows down, retail shipping drops, these, very expensive equipment sorting machines might sit idle.

所以这个策略是有道理的，但我认为现在有一些权衡取舍。

So strategy makes sense, but I think there's a bit of a trade off that's happening right now.

尽管如此，我认为他们更多地向高利润业务线倾斜，特别是医疗物流，这通常在经济困难时期也更具韧性，我认为这是一个非常明智的长期策略。

That said, I think the fact that they are leaning more into these higher margin business lines, specifically healthcare logistics, which just broadly speaking tends to be more resilient even in difficult economic periods, I think that's a very smart strategy for the long run.

路径是存在的。

The path is there.

只是要毫发无损地到达那里，而不削减股息或搞其他财务把戏，这可能是UPS真正的挑战。

It just seems like getting there completely unscathed without having to cut its dividend or, you know, any other financial shenanigans along the way is gonna be the real challenge here for UPS.

也许不是最顺畅的路径。

Maybe not the smoothest path.

一如既往，节目中的人可能对他们谈论的股票有兴趣，而The Motley Fool可能有正式的建议，支持或反对。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以，别光听我们说就买股票。

So don't buy yourself stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容都遵循Motley Fool的编辑标准，未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告是赞助内容，仅供参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

要看完整的广告披露，请查看我们的节目笔记。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢我们的制作人Dan Boyd以及Motley Fool团队的其他成员。

Thanks to our producer Dan Boyd and the rest of The Motley Fool team.

代表Matt、Rachel和我自己，感谢收听，我们下次再聊。

For Matt, Rachel, and myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.