IBM 刚刚关于人工智能的言论是真的吗？

收入上涨了，但股票却跌了。

Revenue is up, but stocks are down.

《傻瓜投资·隐藏宝石》节目现在开始。

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing starts now.

欢迎收听《傻瓜投资·隐藏宝石》。

Welcome to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

今天的主持人是我，夸斯特。

I'm your host today, Quast.

和我一起的还有卢·怀特曼和马特·弗兰克尔。

I'm joined by Lou Whiteman and Matt Frankel.

今天，我们要聊聊为什么在我们录制的时候股市大幅下跌，还要讨论一下IBM的业绩。

Today, we're going to talk about why the stock market is down big here as we tape, and also we're going to talk about results from IBM.

不过，我们想先聊聊泛林集团。

But first, we wanna start by talking about Lam Research.

这家公司可不是在田野里研究羊的，而是为半导体行业提供关键设备的公司。

No, this is not a company that is researching sheep out in the field, this is a company that provides critical machinery for the semiconductor industry.

有些听众可能熟悉像ASML这样的公司，它基本上垄断了市场。

Now some of our listeners might be familiar with a company such as ASML, which really kind of has the corner on its market.

Lam Research在提供的机器方面确实有一些竞争对手，但它刚刚发布了季度财报。

Lam Research does have some competition when it comes to the machinery that it provides, but it just reported its quarterly results.

财报发布时下跌约9%，实际上比2026年的高点下跌了45%，确实回调了不少。但我们看最近的一个季度，营收增长22%，毛利率改善，营业利润率40%，这些都是历史最佳水平。可能由于供应链问题，2027年只预期增长15%。但是马特，这不只是一家提供机器的公司，这部分业务投资者可能最熟悉，但它还有更具经常性收入的业务。

It's down about 9% as we tape, and it's actually down about 45% from its 2026 highs, so really pulling back, but as we look at the most recent quarter here, revenue up 22%, gross margin has improved, operating margin 40%, these are historically great numbers, maybe only expecting 15% in 2027, because of supply chain issues, but Matt, this isn't just a company providing the machinery, and I think that that's the part of the business that investors are most familiar with, but it has a more recurring part of the business as well.

对，可以把它看作刀片和剃须刀的商业模式。

Yeah, think of this more as a razor and blades model.

你指的是服务业务，也就是客户支持业务部门，他们提供备件、升级和服务合同。

So you're talking about the services side of the business, the customer support business group, they do spares, upgrades, they provide service contracts.

这部分创造了25亿美元的销售额。

That did $2,500,000,000 of sales.

增长了40%。

It was up 40%.

这是服务业务连续第四个季度创下纪录。

That's the fourth straight record quarter for the service business.

他们预计今年会增长大约30%。

They expect it to grow by about 30% this year.

这比公司的长期目标还要高出两倍多。

That's more than twice the company's long term target.

投资者要记住的关键一点是，Lam卖出的每一台设备都会带来多年的服务收入。

And the kind of key takeaway for investors is that every tool that Lam sells creates years of service revenue.

所以设备运行得越多、越频繁，需要的零件和升级就越多。

So more tools running, the harder the tools are running, the more parts and upgrades are needing.

这是业务中更稳定、更持续的部分。

It's the the recurring kind of steadier part of the business.

现在和存储器制造商签订了基于性能的服务合同，这很不错。

Now, I mean, performance based service contracts are going on with memory makers, so that's nice.

所以他们的……

So their...

Lam现在是根据设备正常运行时间收费，而不仅仅是卖零件。

Lam's getting paid for uptime, not just making parts.

真正的关键点在于，这是一种刀片和刀架模式，而刀片正在推动

And, I mean, the real kind of key takeaway is that this is a razor and blades model and the blades are driving

现在的增长。

the growth right now.

这让我想到了航空航天，而且是从最好的角度来看。

It really reminds me of aerospace and all the best ways.

我知道技术投资者不想听这个，但是你看，一些大型项目，开始是十亿美元的销售额，最后可能会变成万亿美元的项目。

And I know that's not what tech investors want to hear, but I mean, look, some of these big programs, it's a billion dollars in sales, ends up being a trillion dollar program over time.

这里也有类似的情况，你不仅要看他们今天卖什么，还要看这个对系统带来的连锁反应。

And there is something to that here where you don't just look at what they're selling today, but what that means rippling through the system.

考虑到这个行业是周期性的，需求如此旺盛，这一点非常重要。

That's so important given the heightened demand that this is a cyclical business.

我觉得这真的很……

I think it's it's so...

它……

It...

就是说……

This is...

服务这块是你能看穿泡沫的关键，如果真有泡沫的话，它应该能帮助投资者在市场过热的时候还能继续持有这只股票，我是这么想的。

The services side of it is the way you can see past the bubble if there is indeed a bubble, and it should help investors to stay in the stock even when things get elevated, would I would think.

Lam Research在这里指出的一个长期业务驱动力就是所谓的先进封装技术。我们虽然不是半导体投资方面的所谓专家，但我觉得有必要让听众了解一下什么是先进封装，Matt。

One of the things that Lam Research here pointing out as a long term driver for its business is really this thing called advanced packaging, and not that we are the so called gurus when it comes to semiconductor investing, but I thought that it would be beneficial for our listeners just to look into what is advanced packaging, Matt.

好，这正好说明我们不是专家是件好事。

Well, this is a case where it's good that we're not the gurus.

我们擅长用简单的话解释复杂的东西，这正是这种话题需要的。

We're good at explaining things in simple terms, which is kind of what you need with something like this.

我不想讲得像研究生论文一样去定义先进封装，但简单来说，它可能就是……

I don't wanna give a graduate level dissertation on what advanced packaging is, but in in simple words, it it may...

不是做一个大芯片，而是把多个芯片堆叠连接起来……

Instead of making one giant chip, you stack and connects...

把多个芯片连在一起。

Connect multiple chips together.

所以，你可以把它想象成像建一栋分层的高楼，而不是一个平层的大建筑。

So, like like, think of it as like building a skyscraper in layers, instead of just one big single story building.

这就是AI芯片和高带宽内存获得性能的方式。

So this is how AI chips and high bandwidth memory get their performance.

这对Lam来说有好处，因为像这样堆叠芯片需要大量的蚀刻，蚀刻是一个专业术语，就是指在硅上钻小孔，还要进行沉积，也就是铺设那些你在芯片设计图上看到的铜连接线。

And it helps Lam because stacking chips like this requires a lot of etching, which is a fancy word for just drilling little holes through silicon, and and deposition, which is laying down those copper connections that you see on all the the little chip designs.

所以这个市场增长非常快。

So this is growing very fast.

Lam预计今年先进封装的销售额将增长大约70%。

Lam expects advanced packaging sales to grow by about 70% this year.

随着AI芯片的发展，越来越先进，这样的需求只会增加。

And as AI chips evolve, get more sophisticated, things like this should only increase.

所以我我…

So I I...

它…

It...

这是业务的一大块。

It's a big part of the business.

了解它是什么很重要，而且知道它是一个大的增长驱动力也很重要。

It's important to know what it is, and it's important to know that it's a big growth driver.

关于这一点，Lam管理层指出，设备支出，这是Lam业务和其他厂商如Applied Materials的主要部分，预计将从约1500亿美元增长到明年可能超过2000亿美元。Lou，我很好奇，这是否缓解了那些周期性担忧，还是这些担忧仍然存在？

And to that point, Lam Management here pointing out that spending for equipment, which is kind of the big part of the Lam business and other players such as Applied Materials, but seeing this equipment spend going from around 150,000,000,000 to maybe over 200,000,000,000 next year, Lou, I'm curious, does this kind of alleviate some of those cyclicality concerns or is that still here?

我认为这些担忧仍然存在，但把它们推迟了，这很重要。

I think the concerns are still here, but it pushes them out, which is important.

周期确实会发生，但不必一夜之间就发生。

I mean, cycles happen, but they don't have to happen overnight.

作为投资者，如果你能看清周期能走多远，你就能从中获利。

You can, as an investor, make money off the cycle if you can have visibility of how far it will go.

我在这里看到的更多是一个风险，我认为这个风险是……

What I see here more as a risk, and I think the risk is...

股价已经低于年内高点，但看，他们为了满足需求而增长的速度是有自然限制的。

The stock is down from its highs for the year, but look, there are natural limits to how fast they can grow to meet this demand.

所以，不管需求多高，增长还是有上限的。

So there are, let's just caps on how high growth can go despite demand.

但话说回来，这也许就是估值泡沫挤掉一些带来的好处。

But again, this is where maybe some of the air coming out of valuation helps.

而且，没错，如果你面对的是周期性行业——我认为这就是周期性的——你需要知道这波上升周期能持续多久。

And yes, if you're dealing with a cyclical industry, and I think this is a cyclical industry, you want visibility for how long the upcycle will last.

现在管理层告诉我们的是，至少到2028年都可以放心游。

What management is telling us right now is that it's safe to swim at least into 2028.

没必要现在就从池子里跳出来，匆匆离场。

You don't to jump out of the pool now and head for the exits.

好吧，很高兴你提到估值，因为我也正想说这个。

Well, I'm glad that you brought up valuation because I did want to bring that up here.

现在股价回调了，市盈率大概在35倍左右。

Now that it is down, it's trading at a price to earnings ratio of about 35.

我也不清楚。

I don't know.

你们俩觉得这算是潜在的优质价值股吗，还是说你们还是会避开它？

Do either of you see this as a potentially good value stock here, or is this something that you're still avoiding?

说它是价值股有点难。

It's tough to call it a value stock.

看多的一面，它现在的交易价格大约是前瞻市盈率的22倍，而这家公司的盈利增长率为75%，营业利润率40%，现金流创纪录，而且就像卢说的，至少能看到2028年的前景。

So on on the bull side of it, I mean, trades for roughly 22 times forward earnings right now, and it's for a company that's growing earnings at a 75% rate and has a 40% operating margin, record cash flow, and as Lou just said, visibility into at least twenty twenty eight.

看空的一面，设备类股票历来是周期性的。

On the the bear side, equipment stocks are historically cyclical.

我不知道峰值利润率是多少，但你现在可能非常接近了。

I don't know what peak margin is, but you're definitely probably close to it right now.

中国业务在下滑，供应限制也封顶了上涨空间。

The China business is falling off, and supply constraints are capping the upside.

把所有因素放在一起，考虑到这只股票在营收超预期和良好指引的情况下还出现了相当大的回调，这是我愿意小幅买入的下跌。

Putting all that together, with the stock taking a pretty decent haircut on a revenue beat and and good guidance, it's a dip that I would nibble on.

但……

But it...

就是……

It's...

我不会称它为价值股，但现在的确是个有趣的入场点。

I I wouldn't call it a value stock, but it's definitely an an interesting play right now.

我觉得这就是当投资者最难的地方，因为我不认为……

And I think this is where it's really hard to be an investor because I don't think...

就像刚才说的，我不认为现在是卖出的时机。

Already said, I don't think it's time to sell on the cycle.

我觉得Lam目前还能撑得住。

I think that Lam could sustain for now.

但话说回来，华尔街看重的是增长。

But again, Wall Street pays for growth.

华尔街看重的是增长。

Wall Street is attracted to growth.

华尔街对现状不感兴趣。

Wall Street isn't attracted to the status quo.

随着股价下跌，这越来越接近买入时机，但在这个周期里，我不确定这些股票的上行空间有多大，即使我认为下行风险比之前得到了更好的保护。

It's getting closer to a buy as the stock comes down, but I don't know what the upside for the shares are in this cycle, even if I think the downside is better protected than it was.

你相对于同行获得了折扣，如果你想这样称呼它们的话，像应用材料这样的公司，你提到的ASML，以及硅制造领域的其他公司。

You are getting a discount to its peers, you want to call them that, companies like Applied Materials, you mentioned ASML, just kind of other companies in this manufacturing of silicon area.

我认为现在，周期性已经不那么可怕了，但上行空间是个问题。

I think right now, we're at a point where the cyclicality is less scary, but the upside is a question.

对我来说，我会坚持己见，等着看是否能有更好的交易机会，如果这些趋势继续下去，也许还能获得更多增长。

For me, I'm gonna be stubborn and wait and see if I can get a better deal and maybe a little more growth up ahead if these trends continue.

好了，我们回来的时候，会讨论为什么今天股市大幅下跌。

Well, when we come back, we're going to be talking about why the stock market was down big today.

你现在收听的是Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

你刚发现你的销售团队可能无法完成销售指标。

You just found out that your sales team is at risk of missing quota.

别慌。

Don't panic.

直接问Rippling AI就行。

Just ask Rippling AI.

因为它基于你的实时人事和业务数据，Rippling AI可以从Rippling和Salesforce中提取指标，生成一个会议就绪的仪表盘，显示各区域的配额完成情况、人力编制计划以及月度收入与配额的对比。

Since it's built on your real time people and business data, Rippling AI can pull metrics from Rippling and Salesforce into a meeting ready dashboard showing quota attainment, headcount plan, and monthly revenue to quota by region.

几秒钟内，你就能看到配额风险背后的原因，并在错过之前解决它。

In seconds, you'll see exactly what's behind your quota risk and fix it before it's missed.

问题得到解答，行动已经采取，危机得以避免。

Question answered, action taken, crisis averted.

当你有需要答案的关键业务问题时，不要只是提交工单，然后等上几周才得到一份过时的报告。

When you have critical business questions that need answers, don't just file a ticket and wait weeks for an outdated report.

描述你的需求，让Rippling AI从你的实时人事和业务数据中即时构建它。

Describe what you need and have Rippling AI build it instantly from your live people and business data.

无论是包含详细图表的仪表盘，还是具有正确触发器、条件和审批的自动化工作流。

Whether it's a dashboard with detailed charts or automated workflows with the right triggers, conditions, and approvals.

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Ready to rule your business?

前往 rippling.ai/fool 获取唯一一款能够让你全面了解并跨整个组织执行复杂操作的AI。

Head to rippling.ai/fool to get the only AI built to give you full visibility and take complex actions across your entire organization.

就是 rippling.ai/fool。

That's rippling.ai/fool.

今天就注册获取专属访问权限吧。

Sign up for exclusive access today.

Rippling.ai/fool。

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每个星期天，我们都会在本周科技节目中报道本周的科技新闻。

Every Sunday, we cover the week's tech news on this week in tech.

你好。

Hi.

我是 TWIT 播客网络的 Leo Laporte，邀请你本周加入我，一起聊个大话题。

This is Leo Laporte from the TWIT podcast network inviting you to join me this week for a doozy.

Jason Kalikanis 和 Gina Smith 将和我一起。

Jason Kalikanis and Gina Smith join me.

我们要聊的事情太多了。

We're gonna talk about so many things.

特斯拉的飞行汽车，那个偷偷溜进OpenAI会议室、用厕纸把会议室包起来的家伙，还有新的Surface笔记本电脑，这些都会在Twitch上聊到。

The flying car from Tesla, the guy who bugged the, OpenAI conference room, wrapped it in toilet paper, and the new Surface laptop, it's all coming up on Twitch.

你可以在twitch.tv上找到我们，也可以在任何一个播客平台上收听。

You'll find it at twitch.tv and wherever you get your podcasts.

欢迎回到《Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资》。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

在我们今天继续讨论之前，我想先提一下，Nvidia的CEO黄仁勋最近说AGI已经到来了，而Motley Fool的CEO汤姆·加德纳也同意这个观点，所以他正在筹备一场即将举行的AGI峰会。

You know, before we go further in our show today, I did want to say that Nvidia CEO Jensen Wong recently said that AGI has arrived, and Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner agrees with that, and that's why he's hosting an upcoming AGI Summit.

对所有Fool的听众来说，参加是完全免费的。

It's a 100% free for all fools to attend.

快去agiready.fool.com报名吧。

RSVP it for yourself at agiready.fool.com.

再说一遍，是agiready.fool.com。

Again, is agirady.fool.com.

完全免费，今天就报名吧。

It's a 100% free, so go ahead and sign up today.

在我们录制这期节目的时候，今天股市是下跌的，这是因为特朗普总统的一些言论，暗示伊朗冲突在几周后的中期选举之后可能会再次升级。

As we tape this, the stock market is in the red today, and it's due to some comments from President Trump implying that the Iran conflict is going to pick back up again in intensity after the midterm elections here in a couple of weeks.

市场显然不喜欢这样，原因有很多，但我们今天想谈的一个原因是很多人可能没有意识到的。

The market obviously does not like that, and there are many reasons why, but one of the ones that we wanted to talk about today is something that a lot of people may not realize.

第一，他们可能没有意识到氦对我们的经济有多重要；第二，他们可能不明白伊朗冲突是如何真正干扰这种重要元素的供应的。

One, they may not realize how important helium is to our economy, and they may not understand how the Iran conflict really disrupts the supply of that important element.

氦在很多应用场合都非常重要。

I mean, helium is very important for a, you know, a variety of applications.

我的意思是，不只是我们给孩子生日聚会买的气球。

I mean, not just for the the balloons that we buy for our kids birthday parties.

约翰，我相信你肯定有过……

John, I'm sure you've had a...

你有小孩子。

You have small children.

我相信你家某个时候肯定有过一个氦气罐。

I'm sure you've had a helium tank around your house at one point or another.

而且我们的气球飘到天上去了，当时哭得可惨了。

And we have lost balloons to the sky, and there were many tears.

但在人工智能和基础设施的建设过程中，它们的作用完全不同。

But in the AI, infrastructure process, they play a whole...

它扮演的角色完全不一样。

It plays a whole different role.

在芯片制造过程中，这些制造工厂会把氦气吹过硅晶片的背面，以确保蚀刻过程中温度精确。

So in the chip making process, these, the fabrication facilities, they blow helium across the back of silicon wafers to keep temperatures precise during etching.

氦气可以冷却到非常非常低的温度。

Helium could be very, very super cooled.

在这个过程中帮助很大。

It it helps a lot in the process.

关键在于，目前还没有好的替代品。

There's no good substitute for it, is is the big takeaway.

所以很多国家……

So so a lot of countries...

我们这里生产很多，但比如韩国，大约65%的氦气来自卡塔尔，而三星和SK海力士正是那里生产芯片的，包括其他厂商也一样。

We make a lot of it here, but South Korea, for example, gets about 65% of its helium from Qatar, and that's where Samsung and SK Hynix, know, make their chips, for example.

所以这……

So it's...

氦气的现货价格已经突破了每千立方英尺1000美元。

The spot helium price has cleared a $1,000 per thousand cubic feet.

所以我下一个孩子的生日派对会更贵了，这已经是正常水平的几倍了。

So my next kid's birthday party is gonna be more expensive, and that's several times the normal level.

它……

It...

这对芯片生产影响重大。

It's got big implications for chip production.

目前成本影响还没显现，因为……

It hasn't hit the cost yet because it's...

第一，这仍然只是芯片制造成本中很小的一部分。

One, that's still a very, very small part of the cost of chip making.

所以芯片制造商有……

So the chip makers have...

芯片制造商现在有定价权，他们承担得起。

Chip makers have pricing power right now, they can afford it.

而其他公司，比如研究实验室、医学研究，这些需要氦气的公司，现在获取氦气更困难，也更难负担得起。

It's other companies like, say, research labs, you know, medical research that need helium, that are having a tougher time getting it and affording it right now.

但这真的是一个很有意思的细分市场，因为我们知道柴油价格很高。

But it's it's a really interesting kind of side market because we know, you know, diesel prices are high.

我们知道很多物价都因为伊朗战争而上涨。

We know that a lot of things are high because of the Iran war.

氦气之前没在我的预料之中，但也许我应该预料到的。

Helium wasn't on my bingo card, but maybe it should have been.

这太有意思了，而且和我们之前讨论的联系起来了：泛林集团很多收入来自亚洲市场，尤其是韩国，而韩国非常依赖卡塔尔的氦气，而不是其他来源的氦气。所以这里面确实有值得研究的后续影响。但是，Lou，相比氦气市场和它可能带来的扰乱，有件事更吸引你的注意。

It's so interesting too, and the tie in here from what we were talking about earlier is that a lot of Lam Research revenue comes from Asia markets, in particular Korea, and Korea is a country that is really dependent on the Qatar helium as opposed to helium from a different source, so there there is a interesting follow through there to look at, but Lou, there's something that has your attention more than the helium market and the potential disruption there.

你担心的是什么问题？

What are you concerned with?

马特说的对，氦气虽然重要，但它只是高利润制造环节中的一小部分，企业仍有较大的利润空间。

Know, Matt's right about helium, but as he says, helium's a small part of a lucrative process where companies have margins.

但农场的情况就不一样了。

That's not what's going on in the farms.

正常情况下，全球很大一部分化肥供应都要经过海湾地区。

A lot of our fertilizer stock for the globe goes through The Gulf in normal times.

平均来说，仅美国国内的化肥价格就比年初上涨了20%。

On average guys, fertilizer prices in The US alone are up 20% over the start of the year.

这对农民来说意味着要多支付20%的成本。

That's 20% more the farms have to pay.

这很关键，因为现在我们正处在为明年春季生长季预订化肥的时期。

This matters because we are entering the time period right now where you book your fertilizer order for next spring for the growing season.

目前我们还没有真正感受到这种影响，因为今年生长季的大部分订单都是在伊朗战争之前下的。

We really haven't felt the effect yet because most of the orders for this year's growing season were put in before the Iran war.

但如果你再加上柴油价格，农业危机只会加速恶化。

But you couple that with the diesel prices and the crisis on the farm is only going to accelerate.

基本上可以断定，2027年对农业来说将是糟糕的一年。

It's almost baked in that 2027 is going to be a terrible year for farming.

这在美国之外的情况比美国更糟，我担心全球经济，也担心这会如何波及美国市场，还担心某些地区会出现危机。

This is worse outside of The US than it is in The US, which is, I worry about the global economy, I worry about how that could ripple through The US markets, and I just worry about sort of crisis in some.

我们已经看到法国出现了严重的负担能力危机，而且爆发得很厉害。

We're already seeing basically an affordability crisis in France blowing up in a very big way.

我认为这带来的最大风险不是石油，也不是某一种大宗商品，而是全球经济面临的越来越多的阻力。

I think the biggest risk out of this, it isn't oil, it isn't like one commodity, it's just a growing headwind on the world economy that can end up...

即使美国受到的冲击较小，我想我们确实如此，得益于我们的能源独立和其他优势。

Even if The US is more insulated from it, and I think we are, thanks to our kind of energy independence and other advantages.

但我确实认为，这一切对全球西方经济的影响是……

But I do think that the implications from all of this on the global western economy is...

随着时间的推移，这将冲击美国公司。

Are going to hit US companies over time.

你有没有在调整你的财务流程或投资流程，来应对市场中的这些担忧或经济风险？

Is there anything that you're changing in your financial process, your investing process to reflect some of these fears in the market or the risks to the economy?

我现在比以往更倾向于寻找价值投资机会，因为我觉得……

I I I am more value hunting now than I have been because I think that...

我觉得这不会立刻发生，但2027年将会很难熬。

I don't think it's gonna be immediate, but I think 2027 is gonna be a slog.

我也不一定想领先于成长股。

And I don't necessarily wanna be out ahead of growth stocks.

我知道现在不是退出的好时机，所以我并没有真正卖出那些估值过高的仓位。

I know it's terrible the time to market, so I'm not really exiting positions that are kind of frothy.

这算是我的一种对冲吧。

That's kind of my hedge.

但就新资金的去向而言，我每个月都在变得更保守。

But as far as where new money is going, I am getting more conservative by the month on where I'm deploying.

我确实在寻找价值机会，因为我认为短期内很难看到明显上涨的下一波行情。

I'm really looking for values here because I think the next leg higher is really, really hard to see in the near term.

我再补充一两句，尤其是在现在这种时候，我可以把钱放在一边不动，就能赚到5%的收益。

And, I mean, to kinda add just a sentence or two to that, it's it's especially true at a time when I can just park my money on the sidelines and earn 5%.

这也影响了我这边的计算。

That that also plays into my math there.

当...

You know, when when...

三年前，我的储蓄账户利率只有0.1%，那时候要把大量资金闲置在一边，确实很难合理化。

You know, three years ago when my savings account was paying point 1%, it it was a lot tougher to justify having a lot of capital just sitting on the sidelines.

但现在...

But but now it it...

现在这么做就容易多了，对吧。

It's a lot easier to do and and lose right.

而且我认为AI交易的下一波增长是存在的，但会比第一波更加有选择性，更侧重于具体的公司，也就是赢家，这正是我在寻找的。

And I see the next leg up in the AI trade as existing, but being a lot more selective and very companies, like, winner specific, than the first wave, and and that's what I'm kind of looking for on...

在手持大量现金的情况下。

With with a lot of cash on the sidelines.

我现在可能需要重新考虑一下那个现金搁置策略了，以前没这么想过。

I may need to start rethinking that cash on the sidelines strategy in a way I haven't before.

等我们回来，我们要聊聊IBM，以及它可能透露的真实情况。

When we come back, we are going to talk about IBM and its potential truth telling.

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You're listening to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

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Welcome back to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

我们今天节目的最后想聊聊IBM的财务业绩。

We wanted to close out the show today with financial results from IBM.

该公司刚在最近24小时内公布了业绩，就在我们录制时，股价略有下跌，今年以来已下跌25%。

The company just reported in the last 24, the stock was down slightly as of this taping, down 25% year to date.

当然，这是企业软件咨询业务。

Of course, this is the enterprise software consulting business.

它以5%的收入增长超出了预期。

It beat expectations with 5% revenue growth.

在利润方面，它表现强劲，自由现金流达到78亿美元。

On profits, it delivered strong results, 7,800,000,000 in free cash flow.

但是，Lou，这也许在暗示市场其他部分还没真正意识到的事情。

And yet, Lou, it's maybe pointing to something that the rest of the market isn't really picking up on yet.

嗯，是的，这个……

Well, yeah, this is...

我觉得，CEO阿尔温德·克里希纳的评论比财报本身更有意思。

I found the, I guess, comments by CEO Arvind Krishna more interesting than the quarter itself.

财报本身我们可以讨论，但你看，克里希纳基本上说客户越来越注重投资回报率。

The quarter itself we can talk about, but look, Krishna basically said that customers are increasingly becoming focused on ROI.

我觉得我们不应该……

And I don't think we should be...

尤其是在人工智能方面。

Especially in AI.

我觉得我们对此不应该感到惊讶，但他很直白，基本上把本季度一些不尽如人意的结果归咎于这一点。

And I don't think we should be surprised by this, but very blunt and basically blaming that for kind of some underwhelming results in the quarter.

这其实可以用很多种方式解释。

Now there's a million ways that you could explain this.

可能是IBM在这方面真的很差劲，这是IBM自己的问题，但我觉得不是这样。

It could be that IBM is just really, really bad at this and it's just an IBM problem, but I don't think that is true.

我认为Krishna的评论是对的，企业市场上对定价的反对声音更大了，大家更多地在质疑我们的投资到底换来了什么，而这在六个月前是没这么明显的。

I think that Krishna's comments are correct and that there is more pushback on pricing in the enterprise market and more just questioning what exactly are we getting for our investment than there was, say, six months ago.

我感觉IBM在这里有独特的立场，能说出真话。

My sense is that IBM is uniquely positioned to tell the truth here.

他们不像那些超大规模的云服务商，也不像黄仁勋和英伟达那样完全押注在AI上。

They are not all in in the way the hyperscalers are, way Jensen Huang and Nvidia is.

那些人都跟我们说，别担心。

All of these people telling us, Don't worry about it.

需求是无限的。

Demand is unlimited.

IBM在业务上处于不同的位置，所以可以更坦诚一些。

IBM is sort of at a different part in the business where they can be more honest.

我们不确定实际情况是否如此，但我觉得从更大的角度来看，我们至少要考虑他说得对不对，以及这对我们对这些公司靠收费来实现回报，或者所谓无限需求、无限定价能力的假设意味着什么，还有这对数据中心需求以及所有相关配套产业的需求会产生怎样的连锁反应，最终影响到整个大厦。

We don't know for sure that's going on, but I think that as kind of focusing on the bigger picture, we need to at least consider if he's correct and what that means for all of our assumptions about these companies basically charging their way to an ROI or kind of unlimited demand, unlimited pricing power, and how it ripples down to demand for data centers and demand for all of these picks and shovels to kind of the whole the the whole house that these...

嗯……

The the the...

这一切可能建立起来的整个纸牌屋。

The whole house of cards that this is all built on potentially.

马特，这个季度你觉得最突出的是什么？

Matt, what stood out to you in the quarter?

我想带你回到第二季度，因为在IBM第二季度财报之后——这正好印证了娄说的讲真话——IBM的股价受到了很大的打击。

Well, I wanna take you back to the second quarter because after IBM's second quarter, and this goes to what Lou said about telling the truth, IBM stock took a big hit.

第二季度最大的担忧是，业务中最赚钱的部分，比如软件业务——这也是本季度他们能超营收预期的关键原因——的可选性比人们担心的要高。

The biggest worry in the second quarter was that the most lucrative parts of the business the software business, for example, is the big reason they beat revenue expectations this quarter, were more discretionary than people had feared.

需求并不是无限的。

There's not unlimited demand.

必须有重点。

It has to be focused.

比如说，因为内存芯片价格高，第二季度一些IBM客户推迟了咨询服务的支出，这导致他们没能达到预期。

For example, because of high memory chip prices, some of IBM's customers were delaying their spending on consulting services, in the second quarter, and that caused them to miss expectations.

所以第三季度，尤其是在业务软件方面，咨询业务依然持平。

So q three, especially when it comes to the software side of the business, consulting was still flat.

这仍然是一个令人担忧的地方。

That's still a a worry spot.

但软件业务特别有助于缓解投资者的担忧。

But but the software business especially helped calm investors' fears on that front.

这件事甚至在电话会议上被提到了。

It was even brought up on the conference call.

这是不是只是交易时机碰巧好，还是说这其实只是从第二季度恢复常态？

Was this a case of of fortunate deal timing, or is this really just kind of a normalization from q two?

软件业务轻松超过了预期。

So software handily beat expectations.

这是利润率最高、最稳定的业务部分。

It's the highest margin, the stickiest part of the business.

这是一个真正的反弹，所以软件业务回升了。

It was a real rebound, so software bounced back.

但我注意到的大问题是，很多已经发布第二季度业绩的公司都是这样，IBM在第三季度超出了预期，就像你提到的，但没有上调全年指引。

But the big thing that I noticed, and this is true with a lot of companies that have reported so far and in the second quarter, is that IBM beat expectations for the third quarter, like you mentioned, but did not raise their full year guidance.

当你在第三季度超出预期但保持指引不变，那就暗示第四季度会表现疲软。

When you beat expectations in a third quarter and keep your guidance flat, you're implying that the fourth quarter is gonna be weak.

这就是数学上的必然。

That's just how the math works.

所以这让投资者很担心，也让你觉得收入有点不平稳，因为客户在选择什么时候花钱在咨询服务和软件服务上，什么时候应该把资金转到AI领域的其他部分，比如内存芯片，因为现在芯片缺货且价格很高。

So that scared investors a lot, and it makes you kinda think that the revenue is a little bit lumpy because consumers are choosing when is an opportune time to spend money on consulting services, on software services, and when they should focus that elsewhere in the AI trade on on memory chips because they're at a shortage and they're, you know, have highly priced right now.

所以这是一个不错的季度。

So it was a solid quarter.

他们做了该做的事情。

They did what they needed to do.

与财报发布前相比，我对IBM未来一两年的战略更有信心了，但第四季度对他们来说绝对是个关键时刻。

I'm more confident in IBM's strategy over the next year or two than I was before the report, but the fourth quarter is definitely gonna be a kind of pivotal moment for them.

我觉得重要的是要记住，对于像英伟达或美光这样的公司，它们现在基本上拥有无限的资源。

And I I think it's important just to remember when it comes to a company such as Nvidia or even Micron at the moment, these are companies that have basically unlimited resources at this point.

但并不是所有企业都这样。

Not so with all of the enterprises that are out there.

资源是有限的，比如说，如果你要把云或OpenAI部署到企业工作流中，并支付那些代币费用，再加上内存价格，所有成本加起来，你的预算总有个上限，而且，我开始想知道这个上限在哪里，Lou说，也许他们比其他公司更诚实，也许AI行业确实在放缓。

There are limited resources, your cost for, let's say that you are deploying a cloud or an OpenAI into your enterprise workflows and you're paying for those tokens, I mean, at some point, the memory prices, everything is adding up, and there has to be a limit to your budget somewhere, and, man, starting to wonder where that limit is, Lou's saying, maybe they're telling the truth here more than other companies, maybe things are slowing down in the AI industry.

请耐心听我说一分钟。

Humor me for just a minute.

假设这些半导体公司即将向市场供应过多的硬件，导致硬件价格下降。

Let's assume that these semiconductor companies are about to oversupply the market with hardware, and that drops down hardware prices.

这是否会导致更多本地部署的AI，也就是在你公司内部运行的AI堆栈，并且这对IBM的业务是否实际上有利，因为IBM在咨询方面非常强大？

Could that actually lead to a higher deployment of on premise AI, so this would be AI stack at your place of business, and would that actually be a tailwind for IBM's business since it is so big in consulting?

是的，这种情况可能会发生。

Yes, that could happen.

我不认为这是唯一可能的走向，因为本地部署确实也有一些实际的缺点，比如...

I don't think that's the only way it can go, because on premise does have some just kind of practical drawbacks too as far as just having...

很多东西，如果跟我的核心业务无关，我真的愿意去处理那些麻烦吗？

You know, a lot of these things, if it's not core to my business, do I really want the headaches?

我觉得这得看每个人的决定。

And I, you know, that's going to be an individual decision.

我觉得那是有可能的。

I think that's possible.

我确实觉得这个看涨的逻辑有三个部分，而且越来越觉得这三部分里，总有一个是错的。

I do think that this whole bull case has three parts to it and it feels like increasingly the three parts, one of them has to be wrong.

要么是卖铲子的赢，要么是超大规模云厂商赢，要么是企业看到更高的效率。

Either the picks and shovels win, the hyperscalers win, or companies see greater efficiencies.

其中有一个……

One of those...

这三者之间本身就有冲突，我觉得总有一天这个问题会自己解决。

There's a inherent conflict between those three, and I think at some point it will resolve itself.

我是说，我同意。

And I mean, I I agree.

我觉得如果出现……

I think that if, you know, come up...

芯片价格降下来之类的，这对IBM来说是个净利好。

The chip prices come down, things like that, it's a net positive for IBM on on this.

我……

You know, I...

IBM依赖客户在AI咨询这类项目上有预算，但这一块一直比较平淡，因为他们得把很多预算挪到别的地方去。

IBM relies on customers having budget for things like AI consulting, which has been flat, because they have to shift a lot of their budget elsewhere.

所以如果他们没那么多……

So if they don't have...

如果你不用把那么多预算花在内存这些方面，我也不确定本地部署的AI会不会……

If you have to shift less of your budget toward memory and things like that, I'm not sure if on premise AI is...

在那种情况下会暴涨。

Would, you know, skyrocket in that case.

这确实一直是种趋势。

It's definitely been a trend.

比如高通就非常专注于本地AI硬件。

You know, Qualcomm's been very focused on on premise AI hardware, for example.

但你会看到一些预算往那个方向转移。

But, you know, you would see some budget shift in that direction.

但真的，会看到……

But really, would see...

因为很多公司需要帮助部署AI，而这正是IBM所做的事情。

Because a lot of companies need help deploying AI, and that's what IBM does.

他们在这方面需要帮助。

They they need help, in in that regard.

但首先你得花钱买内存。

But, you know, you have to spend money on the memory first.

如果你不用在芯片之类的上面花那么多钱，你就能把更多的钱转向像IBM这样的公司。

If you don't have to spend as much money on the on the chips and things like that, you could shift a lot more money back toward companies like IBM.

最后一个问题，我们得快一点了。

Final question, we're gonna hit it really fast.

IBM的股票，市盈率21倍。

IBM stock, 21 times earnings.

马特，你会在当前价位买入吗？

Matt, are you a buyer here?

会的。

Yes.

我觉得IBM有很多隐藏价值，我认为它是我在量子计算趋势上最好的看涨期权。

I think IBM has a lot of hidden value, and I consider it my best call option on the the quantum computing trend.

我这么说过几次了。

I've called it that a few times.

嗯，在量子计算方面，我觉得有更好的选择，而且目前我对任何科技股都不太感兴趣，原因我们之前也聊过。

Well, I've got better ways, I think, on quantum, and I'm not really interested in anything tech right now for reasons we talked about.

所以……

So...

不买。

No.

好吧，就是这样了。

Well, there you have it.

和往常一样，节目中的人可能对他们谈论的股票有兴趣，《傻瓜投资指南》也可能有正式的建议，赞成或反对。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以不要仅仅根据听到的内容买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容都遵循《傻瓜投资指南》的编辑标准，未经广告商批准。

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广告是赞助内容，仅供参考。

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要查看我们的完整广告披露，请查看我们的节目说明。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢我们的制作人丹·博伊德，以及《傻瓜投资指南》团队的其他成员。

Thanks to our producer, Dan Boyd, the rest of The Motley Fool team.

代表马特、卢和我自己，非常感谢你们今天收听我们的节目，我们下次再见。

For Matt, Lou, and myself, thank you so much for listening to our show today, and we will see you again next time.