柴油价格创下历史新高

油价上涨带来的痛苦越来越严重了。

The pain at the pump is getting worse.

Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资节目现在开始。

Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.

欢迎收听 Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资节目。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是今天的主持人 Quast。

I'm your host today, Quast.

和我一起的是我的朋友们和撰稿人 Tyler Crowe 和 Matt Frankel。

I'm joined by my friends and contributors, Tyler Crowe and Matt Frankel.

今天节目里我们有几个话题要聊。

And we have a couple things on the show today.

我们会聊聊伯克希尔。

We're gonna talk some Berkshire.

我们还会回答一封听众来信。

We're gonna talk a question from the mailbag.

但首先，我们想聊聊柴油价格。

But first, we wanna hit diesel prices.

截至今天早上，柴油价格创下历史新高，每加仑6.51美元，这是根据AAA的数据，比去年同一时间上涨了76%。

So as of this morning, diesel prices are at a record high of $6.51 per gallon, that's according to AAA, and that is up 76 percent from this exact time last year.

我觉得可能有些听众会说，这跟我有什么关系，我开的是汽油车，但让我告诉你，这确实跟你有关。

And I think that it's possible that maybe some of our listeners out there are saying, I don't see how this applies to me because I drive a gas car, but let me assure you, this does indeed apply to you.

我相信，全国每个人很快都会感受到这件事的影响。

This is a story that everyone in the country, I believe, is going to feel very soon.

Matt，对普通消费者来说，我们会从哪些方面看到影响，为什么会有影响？

Matt, what are some of the ways and and why are we gonna see this in for everyday consumers?

其实，柴油价格对经济的影响非常广泛，不仅仅是你开柴油车或者有柴油船之类的。

I mean, diesel prices have pretty widespread economic implications, not just, you know, if if you drive a diesel powered vehicle or have a diesel powered boat or something like that.

货运公司，那些把全国各地的货物运来运去的公司，你买的所有东西，我买的所有东西，他们在送货给客户时通常会加收燃油附加费，而这直接跟柴油价格挂钩。

Trucking companies, the the the companies that move everything around the country, everything that you buy, everything I buy, they generally include fuel surcharges when they deliver items to their their customers, and they're directly tied to the price of diesel fuel.

所以当柴油价格上涨时——而且我觉得自从卡特里娜飓风以来，已经很久没在南卡罗来纳的油价牌上看到6字头了。

So when you when diesel prices rise and it's been a long time, I think since Katrina, before we saw a six on a on a fuel price sign in South Carolina.

我不知道你那边的情况怎么样。

I don't know about where you are.

但确实有一阵子了，你知道，这肯定会带来一些痛苦。

But it's been a while, and, you know, it it's gonna cause some some pain.

我的意思是，你刚才说涨了78%，这可不是小数目。

I mean, that that's a lot of you said a 78% increase.

把这些成本转嫁给你的客户，那可不是一笔小开销。

That's a lot to be passing on to your to your customers.

当我们谈到柴油的时候，

When we talk about diesel

其实我们也可以把范围扩大到航空燃油，因为你知道，任何精炼产品，比如汽油，价格都涨得很厉害。

and we could actually expand this out too to, like, jet fuel as well because, you know, gas anything that is a refined product is way up.

显然，柴油比汽油贵得多，部分原因正如你所说，柴油对运输、农业等行业来说更是必需品。

Obviously, diesel is much higher than gasoline in part because of what you said is where diesel is much more of a must have for shipping for agriculture and things like that.

它可以说是供应链行业的命脉，负责把东西从一个地方运到另一个地方。

It is kind of the lifeblood of the supply chain industry and moving stuff from one place to another.

就像我说的，航空燃油也是另一个我们不常提的东西，因为航空货运确实存在。

Like I said, jet fuel is also another one we don't talk about as much because jet cargo is a thing.

虽然我们可能不会用飞机来运大宗商品之类的，但现在航空燃油的价格大概是每桶200美元，是伊朗冲突之前价格的两倍。

And while we're probably not moving commodities and things like that on a jet, you know, it it's still it's right now, jet fuel prices are about $200 a barrel, and that's two times the price it was pre the Iran conflict.

而且这个价格涨得也挺快的。

And that's increasing relatively fast as well.

所以你在机票上也会看到类似的燃油附加费，而且如果这些航空燃油附加费真的开始大幅上涨的话，假期期间机票价格出现波动我也不会感到意外。

So you're seeing those similar fuel surcharges on airline tickets as well, and I would not be shocked if we start to see things pop up in airline traffic coming in during the holiday season if we see these airline dual surcharges really start to climb.

有没有什么办法能把价格降下来？

Is there anything that we can do about this to bring prices back down?

因为你知道，参议员查克·格拉斯利提出要禁止柴油出口，我觉得这个想法听起来有点道理，因为价格是由全球供需经济决定的，所以按理说，如果你禁止了全球需求，国内供应就会开始超过国内需求，从而压低价格，但实际情况是这样吗？

Because, you know, Senator Chuck Grassley coming out and suggesting that we ban the export of diesel fuel, and to me, that idea kind of makes sense because the price is set with global supply and demand economics, and so it stands to reason that if you ban the global demand, that your domestic supply is going to start outweighing your domestic demand and bring prices down, but is that how it works?

短期内你可能会看到一些波动，但这样做很可能会带来很多意想不到的后果。

You could probably get a short term sort of swing here, but there are so many unintended consequences that would likely happen as a result.

举个例子吧。

Let's just give an example.

我们每天总共出口大约五百万桶精炼产品，不管是汽油、柴油还是航空燃油，什么都有。

So we export in total about 5,000,000 barrels per day of refined of refined products, whether that's gasoline, whether that's diesel, whether it's jet fuel, you name name it, whatever it is.

同时我们每天还进口大约两百万桶原油。

We also import about 2,000,000 barrels per day of crude oil.

所以从净额来看，我们是净出口国。

So on a net basis, we are a net exporter.

但问题在于，我们实际上出口的柴油要多得多，而汽油反而是净进口的。

But the challenge is is we actually export a lot more diesel, we actually are a net importer of gasoline.

所以如果我们开始禁止柴油出口，那么那些受影响的国家，主要是欧洲，因为我们很多汽油和柴油贸易都是跟欧洲做的，他们可能也会开始禁止汽油出口。

And so if we were to start banning diesel exports, then all you know, the comp the countries that would suffer, mostly Europe is where we do a lot of our gasoline diesel trade with, maybe they start banning gasoline or exports.

然后突然之间，我们就陷入了一种互相禁止的僵局。

And then all of a sudden, we're in some tit for tat of who bans what where.

对，是的。

And I yeah.

这可能会带来一些短期影响，但我更担心的是，从长远来看，它引发的问题会比它解决的短期问题更多。

It it could probably have some short term impact, but I would be more worried that it would cause more problems down the road than it would having some sort of short term solve.

还有一点要记住的是，不只是出口禁令或类似的事情。

One thing that to keep in mind too is it's not just on the, ban or whatever of exports.

不管怎么弄，真正棘手的一点是，炼油产能，也就是炼油利用率，已经达到自2000年代初以来的最高水平。

One thing that's really gonna be challenging no matter how we shake it is the fact that refinery capacity, like the utilization of refining, is at the highest it's been since, like, the early two thousands.

大西洋盆地。

The Atlantic Basin.

也就是说，基本上我们东海岸的所有炼油厂，加上欧洲的炼油厂，利用率都达到了97%。

So that's, like, basically all of our East Coast refineries in addition to a European refineries are at, like, 97% utilizations.

这不仅仅是因为伊朗战争，我们还看到俄罗斯有很多炼油厂被摧毁，这也影响了欧洲的燃料需求。

It's not just because of the Iran war, but also we've seen a lot of refineries knocked out in Russia, which is impacting European fuels, demand as well.

所以这里有很多事情在同时发生。

So a lot of things are going on here.

还有件有趣的事，我们之前聊过，如果你想说是隐藏的投资，长期以来，美国的炼油厂，像瓦莱罗、马拉松石油，对很多人来说都是惊人的价值创造者，即使在石油环境不好的时候也是这样。

And a funny thing we were talking about, if you wanna say like a hidden investment, for the longest time, oil refineries in The United States, Valero, Marathon Petroleum, incredible value creators for a lot of people, even in lousy oil environments.

我觉得它们以前确实是隐藏的投资，但现在人们看到裂解价差，也就是成品油和原油之间的差价，情况真的在改变，我觉得没人再认为它们是隐藏的投资了。

I think it was they were pretty hidden investments, but I think today when people are seeing the crack spreads or the the the difference between refined products and crude oil today, it's really changing the thing, and I don't think anyone thinks those are hidden investments anymore.

好的，马特，最后让你来说几句。

Alright, so Matt, I wanna give you the final word here.

听泰勒的意思，短期内甚至中期内，要让价格降下来都不太容易。

It sounds from Tyler that it's gonna be complicated to get prices down, at least in the near term, or even in the medium term.

如果柴油价格降不下来，这会在宏观经济层面产生哪些连锁反应？

If we can't get these diesel prices down, where are we gonna see that ripple through the the macroeconomic picture?

这里有一个很有意思的点，而且非常重要。

So here's one interesting point that is really important.

如果汽油价格上涨，你会立刻在通胀数据里看到影响。

If gasoline prices rise, you see that show up in inflation immediately.

你知道，能源成本会上升。

You know, energy costs rise.

如果航空燃油价格上涨，影响也会比较快显现。

If jet fuel prices rise, it's a somewhat immediate effect.

比如说，它会很快推高旅行相关的通胀。

It affects travel inflation very quickly, for example.

柴油的情况就有点像延迟引信，因为运费上涨，它传导到消费者价格上会稍微晚一些。

With diesel, it can be somewhat more of a delayed fuse as it reaches consumer prices a little bit later due to higher freight costs.

企业会尽量不把价格上涨转嫁给消费者。

Companies resist passing on a price increases.

我们在关税上已经看到了这种情况。

We've seen this from the tariffs.

企业会一直试图扛住不涨价，直到实在扛不住为止。

Companies try to resist passing on price increases until they can't anymore.

所以这往往更像一个延迟引信，而这也正是我在这里所预期的。

So it tends to be a little bit more of a delayed fuse, and that's exactly what I'm expecting here.

在最新的通胀数据中，我们已经看到了更直接的影响。

We're already seeing the more immediate effects, in the most recent inflation data.

运输和仓储服务以及卡车货运是数据中表现最差的两个部分。

Transportation and warehousing services and truck freight transportation were two of the worst parts of the data.

但展望未来，我特别关注两三个类别。

But looking forward, I'm really keeping an eye on a couple or three categories in particular.

所以食品方面，柴油不仅影响食品运输成本，比如把食品送到杂货店的费用，还影响农用设备。

So food, diesel not only impacts food transportation costs, like, you know, the cost of getting food to the grocery stores, but it affects farm equipment.

我的意思是，农用设备是烧柴油的。

I mean, farm equipment runs on diesel.

加工食品的设备，很多也是烧柴油的。

The processing equipment that processes food, a lot of it runs on diesel.

所以它从几个不同方面影响食品价格。

So it affects food prices in a few different ways.

航空公司，泰勒已经提到了，航空燃油价格上涨了。

Airlines, I mean, Tyler already mentioned that, jet fuel was up.

这不是柴油的问题，但是，你知道，机票价格已经同比上涨了23%。

That's not a diesel thing, but, you know, airline fares are already up 23% year over year.

这还不是柴油涨幅的百分比，所以如果未来机票价格再涨一点，我也不会感到意外，尤其是进入假期旺季，需求很大的时候。

That's not the percentage increase of diesel, so I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a little bit more increase in in airfares going forward, especially as we head into the holiday season when there's a lot of demand.

然后是建筑业。

And then construction.

我是说，重型设备大部分都靠柴油运行。

I mean, heavy equipment runs on diesel for the most part.

而且，不用说，像UPS和FedEx这样的快递公司。

And, I mean, it goes without saying that the delivery companies are, you know, like UPS and and FedEx.

他们的飞机用的是航空燃油。

I mean, their planes use jet fuel.

他们的卡车用的是柴油。

Their trucks use diesel.

我们可能会看到这些成本大量转嫁给消费者。

We could see that kinda pass through to the consumer a lot.

所以我觉得有几个类别的通胀可能会在好转之前变得更糟。

So I there there are a few categories where inflation could get worse before it gets better.

而且，当然，如果通胀持续是个问题，那会让美联储很难降息。

Well and, of course, if inflation continues to be a persistent problem, that's gonna make it really hard for the Federal Reserve to lower rates.

所以那也会是个值得关注的有趣点。

So that'd be an interesting thing to watch as well.

回来之后，我们要聊聊伯克希尔·哈撒韦的一些变动。

When we come back, we're gonna talk some Berkshire Hathaway changes.

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所以，巴菲特时代在伯克希尔·哈撒韦正式结束了，或者我应该说，沃伦·巴菲特的时代结束了，因为他的儿子霍华德将接任公司董事长，而沃伦叔叔即将卸任，根据周五发布的一封信，这挺有意思的。

So the Buffett era is officially over at Berkshire Hathaway, or maybe I should say the Warren Buffett era is over because his son Howard is stepping into the chairman role of the company as Uncle Warren is stepping down, according to a letter that released on Friday, and this is kind of an interesting thing here.

这确实引出了一个有趣的话题，因为CEO的变动已经发生了，当然，格雷格·阿贝尔在管理公司，但现在他的儿子霍华德接任董事长，股市上的许多公司，董事长和CEO是合一的，我认为这是一个有趣的案例，我们可以开始探讨，一般来说，董事长和CEO的角色有什么区别，以及在伯克希尔具体会如何发展？

It does bring up an interesting topic, because the change at CEO had already changed, of course, Greg Abel running the company, but now his son Howard stepping into the chairman role, many companies on the stock market, the chairman CEO is combined, and I think this is an interesting case where maybe we can start to examine, well, what is the difference between the chairman and CEO roles, generally speaking and how is it gonna play out specifically at Berkshire?

关于分离，这真的取决于公司的类型。

As far as the separation, it really depends on the flavor of the company.

显然，有创始人领导的公司往往董事长和CEO是合一的，但也有相当一部分是分开的，说实话，我认为在一定程度上分开这些角色是良好治理的更好标志。

Obviously, companies where you have like founder leaders tends to be a combination of chairman and CEO, but there is a fair share where it's actually separated, and honestly, I think it's a better sign of good governance to have those roles separated to a certain degree.

在薪酬和审计这些方面，确实有些东西是分开的，你希望它们是分开的。

There are some separate things when it comes to compensation, when it comes to audits that you you kinda want them separated.

不过，伯克希尔这些年确实在治理上有些模糊不清的地方。

Now, look, Berkshire has sort of gotten away with some murky governance stuff over the years.

我是说，他们本来就有双重股权结构，但我觉得我们很多人都对伯克希尔哈撒韦在治理上的一些做法睁一只眼闭一只眼，因为那是巴菲特，而且他似乎总是为投资者着想。

I mean, they already had a dual class shares, But I think we all kind of look the other way with some of the things that Berkshire Hathaway did with its governance because it was Buffett, and he seemed to always do right by investors.

现在他儿子直接接任执行董事长，我觉得这又是一个治理上有点模糊的例子。

Now his son automatically getting the executive chair, I think is an ex another example of slightly murky governance.

他是最合适的人选吗？

Is he the most qualified?

也许吧。

Maybe.

我可能觉得，其实他不是。

I probably I don't think he is actually.

而且，周末《金融时报》上还有篇文章说，这是个糟糕的决定。

And even, there was an article in the, Financial Times over the weekend being like, this was a bad move.

所以不只是我一个人这么说。

So I'm not the only one saying this.

不过还有一点要考虑，也许这才是真正的原因，就是沃伦·巴菲特持有的所有股份都会转给基金会、家族信托之类的，而这些大部分都由他的孩子们掌控或运营，霍华德就是其中之一。这些基金会都是他们管理的，显然基金会想持有股票，而且可能想尽可能保持家族控制权。

The other thing to consider though, and perhaps the reason why this is the case is more than anything, all of the shares that Warren Buffett owned are gonna be transferred to either foundations or family trusts or whatever, and most of those are owned or operated or run by his children, Howard being one of them, and they're all foundations run by them, and obviously foundations want to own stock and probably wanna maintain as much family control as possible.

所以作为不是多数股东，但可以说是相对大股东，这是你能为霍华德找到的最好的理由了。

So that as the not the majority, but I guess you could say the plurality shareholder, that's the best case you could make for Howard.

我觉得接下来值得关注的是，伯克希尔·哈撒韦一直有一种光环效应。

Here's the fascinating thing I wanna follow, is that Berkshire Hathaway has always had a halo effect.

就像沃伦·巴菲特、埃隆·马斯克、杰夫·贝索斯，估值的时候大家都会给他们一些信任。

Like, you know, Warren Buffett, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, valuation, everyone kind of gives them benefit of doubt.

当沃伦·巴菲特真的不再参与的时候，这种光环能持续多久呢？

How long does that last when Warren Buffett really isn't in the picture anymore?

马特，你觉得伯克希尔这次会怎么发展？

Matt, what do you think about the Berkshire specific way that this is gonna play out?

因为泰勒刚才提到，沃伦选他儿子霍华德，可能部分动机是他要把大量财富转给孩子们，而公司的长期走向对他来说很重要。

Because Tyler is mentioning here, part of the, perhaps, motivation behind Warren naming his son Howard is the fact that he is transferring a lot of his wealth to his children, and where the company goes over the long term is important to him.

嗯，我最大的疑问是，为什么《金融时报》十五年前不发表这篇文章？

Well, I mean, my biggest pushback is why didn't the Financial Times publish this article fifteen years ago?

我这么说是因为这个计划早就公开了。

And the reason I say that is this move has been known.

我是说，沃伦·巴菲特在2011年上电视时就说过，他的计划是让儿子霍华德接任董事长，但并不是为了参与公司运营，而是为了在万一未来CEO走偏，比如开始过度干预运营时，能维护公司文化。伯克希尔一直以去中心化的文化为傲，这只是其中一个例子。

I mean, Warren Buffett said, you know, on TV in 2011 that this was his plan, that his son Howard would move into the chairman role for the specific role not to play any role in the company, but just to kind of preserve the culture if a c e a future CEO went rogue, for example, and started, you know, micromanaging the operations, which Berkshire prides itself on being a decentralized culture just as one example.

霍华德可以介入并采取行动。

Howard could step in and do something about it.

这就是他在那里的唯一目的。

That's his sole goal for being there.

而且，泰勒说得对。

And to I mean, Tyler's right.

他可能不是最有经验的。

He's maybe he's not the most experienced.

他在好几个董事会待过。

He's been on several board.

他当过可口可乐的董事。

He's been a director at Coca-Cola.

他当过康尼格拉食品的董事。

He's been a director at Conagra Foods.

在他的职业生涯中，他还担任过几个董事会的董事长。

He's been chairman of of a few boards, throughout his career.

公平地说，他能得到这些职位，可能是因为他的姓氏和与伯克希尔的联系，但他确实担任了相当长一段时间。

To be fair, it's probably because of his name and his connection to Berkshire that he got those roles, but he had them for for quite some time.

他从93年起就是伯克希尔的董事会成员了。

He's been on Berkshire's board since '93.

所以，你知道，他进伯克希尔董事会的时候，我才11岁。

So, you know, he's been on Berkshire's board since I was 11 years old.

他在这方面确实有些经验。

He he's he's got some experience there.

他确实在董事会里待过。

He he's been in the boardrooms.

但是，是啊，我不明白为什么现在这成了问题，而长期以来这本来就是一个已知的继任计划。

But, yeah, it's I I I don't know why this is an issue now when it was kind of a known known succession plan for a long time.

嗯，我觉得有个合理的观点是，现在问题更严重了，因为霍华德已经71岁了。

Well, I think there's a fair point of, like, it's a pro more of a problem now because Howard's already 71.

格雷格·阿贝尔也已经64岁了。

Greg Abel's already 64 years old.

而且，你知道，也许十五年前，当他还是候任执行董事长时，他才55岁，那看起来还算合理。

And, yeah, you know, maybe fifteen years ago when it was kind of the the executive chairman in waiting, he was 55 and seemed like a relatively reasonable thing here.

我对这个想法有些异议的部分原因是，很长一段时间里，沃伦·巴菲特总是说，我们有阿吉特·贾恩负责保险。

Part of my, kind of contention with the idea too is we hit for the longest time, Warren Buffett was always like, you know, we got Ajay Jain in charge of insurance.

格雷格·阿贝尔会接手的。

Greg Abel's gonna take over.

霍华德在那里担任执行董事长。

Howard's there to do the executive chairman.

但这些人都已经接近退休年龄了，却还假设他们会在七八十岁时依然处于巅峰状态。

But these guys are all now already approaching retirement age, there's this assumption that they're gonna be, you know, on the top of their game into their seventies and eighties.

这对沃伦·巴菲特来说是很罕见的。

That was a rarity for Warren Buffett.

你知道，用他的话来说，他算是中了出生彩票，靠基因和保持头脑敏锐的能力，能这么久都这么厉害。

He you know, to use one of his quids, he kind of won the the birth lottery, if you will, with, you know, genetics and being able to stay as sharp as he did for as long.

他雇的那些人，可不一定能像他一样，到了七八十岁还那么出色。

There's no guarantee that the people that he has already hired are going to be as good into their seventies and eighties as he was.

如果不行的话，那后面的接班梯队又在哪里呢？

And if not, where's the bench in the lieutenants after that?

因为如果我是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东——我确实是。

Because if I was I am a Berkshire Hathaway investor.

我开始有点担心，阿贝尔之后，霍华德·巴菲特之后，会怎么样？

Part of me starts to wonder, like, what happens post Abel, post Howard Buffett?

因为那很快就会改变很多事情。

Because that really changed things pretty quick.

而且，说实话，这是最有力的批评。

And, I mean, to be fair, that's the best criticism.

我是说，霍华德也不年轻了。

I mean, Howard isn't young.

他和格雷格·阿贝尔都到了我所说的退休年龄，在除了伯克希尔以外的任何地方都是这样。

Him and Greg Abel are both at what I would consider to be retirement age, in in any world other than Berkshire's.

所以，你知道，我最大的疑问就是想看看继任计划的下一步。

So it's you know, that's my biggest question mark is I wanna see the next steps in the succession plan.

如果下次伯克希尔股东大会上，人们还在问格雷格·阿贝尔接下来怎么办，我也不会惊讶，因为就像你说的，他也不年轻了。

I wouldn't be surprised if it you know, the the next Berkshire shareholder meeting, that's an ongoing, you know, question topic that people are asking Greg Abel is what happens next because he's not, like you said, not exactly young.

霍华德之后，谁来保持这种文化？

Who's gonna preserve the culture after Howard?

他可能会退休。

He he could retire.

你知道，他已经71岁了。

It's you know, he's he's 71.

我知道巴菲特有很多侄子和儿子，还有孙子在金融行业工作，但你知道，现在明确一下计划肯定会有所帮助。

I know there there are there is a bench of Buffett nephews and sons who and grandsons who work in the financial industry, but, you know, stating the plan would would definitely help at this point.

这当然不太理想，当你的继任计划本身都需要一个继任计划的时候。

It's certainly suboptimal when your succession plan already needs a succession plan.

但基本上，我从你们那里听到的是，按照现有的这个计划，伯克希尔的目标是不改变，至少在不改变那些让它变得伟大的方面，沃伦是这么想的。但让我们来谈谈一个可能更好的改变，或者至少是一些股东似乎想要的改变，也许现在是时候做了。

But basically, what I'm hearing from you guys with this plan that is in place, the idea is for Berkshire to not change, at least in the ways that have made it great, that's what Warren is thinking about, but let's talk about a change that might be for the better, or at least that some shareholders seem to want, and maybe this is the time to do it.

沃伦·巴菲特历来非常反对支付股息，而现在有一种越来越强烈的呼声，认为也许是时候了。

Warren Buffett has historically been very averse to paying a dividend, and there is a growing little murmur out there that maybe this is the time.

我认为在接下来的十八个月里，他们会宣布派息，而且理由会非常正当。

I think over the next eighteen months, they will declare a dividend, and for the most benign reason possible.

再说，巴菲特的持股将捐给基金会和信托基金。

Again, the Buffett ownership stake is going to foundations and trusts.

基金会和信托基金需要资金，他们可能更愿意用股息而不是卖掉股票来获得资金。

Foundations and trusts need money, and they'd probably prefer to use dividends instead of having to sell their shares to do so.

我认为，鉴于基金会等机构有如此多的既得利益，我们可能会看到董事会推动派息，以资助这些基金会的运作。

I think with that much vested interests from foundations and things like that, we could see a push from the board to go towards a dividend to fund those operations at those foundations.

这和好时公司的情况非常相似。

Very similar to what we see at Hershey.

他们的大股东是赫尔希信托，基本上他们唯一关心的就是分红。

They're majority owned by the the Hershey trust, which is basically all they really care about is the dividend.

我倒愿意持相反观点。

I mean, I I'll I'll gladly take the other side of that argument.

我觉得伯克希尔五年内不会分红。

I don't think Berkshire will pay a dividend within the next five years.

我这么说，是假设格雷格·阿贝尔和霍华德·巴菲特五年后还在现在的位置上。

And and when I say that, that assumes that both Greg Abel and Howard Buffett are are gonna be in their current roles in five years.

所以这是个很大的假设。

So that's a big assumption.

你知道，阿贝尔已经表明，投资、回购股票才是他的优先事项。

You know, Able has already showed that making investments, paying or and and buying back shares are his priority.

他上任伯克希尔CEO的头几个季度就明确表态了。

He's making that very making statements about that, in his first couple quarters as Berkshire's CEO.

我不是说完全不可能。

I mean, I'm not saying it's not possible.

我大概会给伯克希尔派发股息的可能性打个20%，而且只有在股价长期远高于其内在价值的情况下才会派发。

I'd probably give it about a 20% chance that Berkshire pays a dividend, and only if the stock traded above well above its intrinsic value for for a length of time.

毕竟，艾贝尔和霍华德·巴菲特都在那里是为了维护公司文化。

Because after all, both Able and Howard Buffett are there to preserve the culture.

伯克希尔的资本偏好中明确说明，如果它用尽了所有其他选择，包括回购，就会派发股息。

It's clearly stated in Berkshire's capital preferences that it will pay a dividend if it exhausts all other options, including buybacks.

随着霍华德接任那个角色，时间推移，我们得留意这一点。

We'll have to keep an eye on that as Howard steps into that role and time moves forward.

我们回来的时候，会回答一个来自听众的问题。

When we come back, we're going to hit a question from our mailbag.

你正在收听Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资节目。

You are listening to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

每周日，我们都会在《本周科技》节目中报道本周的科技新闻。

Every Sunday, we cover the week's tech news on This Week in Tech.

嗨。

Hi.

我是TWIT播客网络的Leon Laporte，邀请你和我一起，与Jacob Ward、Molly White和Harry McCracken聊聊针对Meta的那场大诉讼的终结，以及这对我们意味着什么。

This is Leon Laporte from the TWIT Podcasting Network inviting you to join me with Jacob Ward, Molly White, and Harry McCracken as we talk about the end of the big lawsuit against Meta and what it means for us.

NVIDIA花大价钱想进军AI软件领域，还有关于Hugging Face遭攻击的真实细节。

NVIDIA spending lots of money trying to get into the AI software game and real details on that hugging face attack.

你听到的内容会让你震惊。

What you hear will shock you.

你可以在twit.tv以及任何你收听播客的地方找到它。

You'll find it at twit.tv and wherever you get your podcasts.

欢迎回到Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

提醒一下，我们很喜欢收到听众的邮件提问，邮箱地址是podcast@fool.com。

A quick note, we love taking questions from our mail bag, and that email address is podcast@fool.com.

把问题发给本节目的任何一位嘉宾，尤其是如果你能保持简洁、问题够机智，并且记得我们不会提供个性化投资建议的话。再次提醒，邮箱地址是podcast@fool.com。

Send in your questions to anyone on this show, especially if you can keep it concise, if it stays foolish, and if you remember that we don't give out personalized investing advice, that email address again is podcastfool dot com.

今天这个问题开头是来自智利的问候。

And this question today starts off by saying greetings from Chile.

当你想建仓一只你绝对必须拥有的股票时，不管是不是定投，你会先看技术指标再决定入场点吗？

When looking to open a position, whether dollar cost averaging or not, on a stock you absolutely need to own, do you look at technicals before determining the entry point?

换句话说，如果一只股票在历史高位交易，你会盲目买入吗？比如互联网时代巅峰时期的英特尔；反过来，如果一只股票过去五年一直表现不佳，比如耐克，你会等它出现复苏迹象再买吗？

Put another way, if a stock is trading at all time highs, do you blindly buy, example, Intel during the height of the .com era, or conversely, if the stock has been a dog for the past five years, think Nike, do you want to wait for signs of life before buying?

谢谢，维森特。

Thanks, Vicente.

维森特，我们很感谢你的问题，但我们要稍微重新定义一下这里的一些事情，让它更符合我们的风格，所以你们几个可以就问题里的几个前提发表一下看法，看看哪些你们不同意。

Vicente, we appreciate the question, but we are gonna reframe a couple things here to make it a little bit more foolish, so I'll let you guys go ahead and jump in here with a couple of premises in the question that you wanna reject.

有一点我不同意，就是“必须拥有”某只股票这种想法。

One of the things that I can't say that I agree with is the idea of something being a need to own stock.

我觉得当我们有那种必须马上买某只股票的冲动时，就好像我们已经研究透了，做了所有决定，这有点像沉没研究谬误——你会想，我花了这么多时间研究，所以必须买它。

I feel like when we get that itch where we have to own something immediately, it's like we've studied it and have made all the decisions, it's a little bit more of a sunk research fallacy where you're like, well, I've put so much time into it, it must mean I have to buy it.

但事实不一定如此。

Well, it's not necessarily the case.

我刚刚对沃伦·巴菲特的公司治理什么的有点批评，但他确实说过一些很经典的投资建议。

Now, I just kinda took some shots at, Warren Buffett for corporate governance and whatnot, but he had some real bangers of lines, in terms of, like, investing advice.

我最喜欢的一句话是，投资里没有所谓的‘必须挥棒’的球。

And one of my favorite ones is actually there's no called strikes in investing.

你不一定非得去买点什么。

There's you don't have to go out and buy something.

你不一定非得拥有它。

You don't have to own it.

机会总是有的，别的地方也有。

There's always opportunities elsewhere.

有时候，你需要把眼光放得更远一些。

Sometimes, you need to look further afield than others.

而且，你知道，现在这个时期，可能确实需要看得更远。

And, you know, I one could argue now is arguably a further afield time.

所以，这也就是为什么我觉得，这不一定是最好的投资方式。

So it's it it's just one of those things where I don't necessarily think that's the the best way to look at investing in general.

我完全同意泰勒的看法，根本不存在什么‘必须拥有的股票’这种事。

I mean, I I agree with Tyler completely that there's no such thing as a need to own stock.

其实，投资中普遍存在的紧迫感是人们为投资支付过高价格的首要原因之一。

I mean, having a sense of urgency in investing in general is one of the top reasons that people overpay for investments.

但问题是，不是看图表走势怎么样。

But, I mean, the the question is not what the chart is doing.

而是看你为一家公司未来的盈利支付了多少，因为归根结底，目标是你支付的金额要低于该公司未来盈利的现值。

It's what you're paying for a business's future earnings because at the end of the day, that's the goal is you wanna pay less than than the the current the present value of a business's future earnings.

这就是投资入门第一课。

I mean, that's investing one zero one.

比如说，说它以前卖100美元，现在卖80美元，这不是买入的理由。

I mean, saying things like it used to trade for a $100, but now it trades for $80 is not a reason to buy.

反过来，说它处于历史高位，也不一定是不买的理由。

And on the other side, it's at an all time high is not necessarily a reason not to buy.

但就我的投资策略而言，如果我真的想拥有一只股票，不是必须拥有，而是因为我认为它相对于未来盈利来说价格合理，但我可能对当前的估值有些担忧，就像问题里暗示的那样。

But to my, like, investment strategy, if I really wanna own a stock not need to own, but if I really want to own a stock because I think it's trading at a fair price relative to its future earnings, but I might be a little concerned about the current valuation as the question is implying.

这时候我特别喜欢逐步建仓，不一定完全按教科书式的定投，但可能现在买一点，一个月后再买一点，再过几个月再买一点。

That's when I really like to build positions incrementally, not necessarily completely textbook dollar cost averaging, but maybe buy a little now, buy a little in a month, buy a little in another couple months.

而且我更喜欢这样，而不是用技术分析来确定股票的入场点。

And I preferred that to using technicals to determine an an entry point in the stock.

所以基本上，Vicente，稍微换个角度来说，他们说的意思是，不一定非得拥有某只股票。

So basically, there, Vicente, just kind of reframing a little bit, they're saying not necessarily any stock is a have to own.

你可以就站在那儿，等着更好的时机出现，然后再看技术指标。

You can just stand there and wait for a better pitch at some point, and then also the technicals.

Matt，他们强调的是，我们真正关心的是未来的收益，但定投确实是我们想用的方法。不过，我觉得各位，我们现在可以稍微转到这个问题上来。

Matt, they're highlighting the future earnings is really more what we're concerned with, but dollar cost averaging is certainly a approach that we'd like to use, but I thought, guys, that we can now actually turn to this question a little bit here.

他谈到了那些表现不佳的股票，那些一直低迷但开始显现出一些生机的股票，我想把这个话题抛给你们，好让我们以一个更积极的话题结束。

He talks about dogs, stocks that have been dogs that are starting to show signs of life, and thought I'd throw this out there to you guys just to kind of leave with something a little bit more positive.

现在有没有哪些低迷的股票，你们觉得，嘿，这些股票确实开始显示出一些生机了，看起来是个不错的买入机会？

Are there dogs out there right now that you're seeing, hey, these are actually showing some signs of life and this looks like a decent bite to me?

我算是从周期性大宗商品起家的，这也许意味着我有点受虐倾向，就是喜欢痛苦。

I kinda cut my teeth on cyclical commodities, which, I don't know, just maybe means that I have some masochistic streak in me where I just love pain.

但在这个过程中，我发现的一件事是，低迷期有时正是积累筹码的窗口。

But one of the things I did discover in that sort of vein is that the dog days sometimes can be those windows of accumulation.

它们可能需要好几年才能回本。

It may take several years for them to pay off.

我一直在看几个不同的领域。

I've been looking in a couple different places.

如果你想找那些有复苏迹象的冷门股，我真的建议开始关注小型银行和地区性银行。

If you're looking for dogs with signs of life, I really wanna start looking at small and regional banks.

现在很多这类公司的股价都低于它们的实际账面价值，这其实是它们比较常见的一个特点。

Lots of these businesses are trading for less than their tangible book value right now, that's actually one of the more common traits.

而且它们的走势往往跟大盘不太相关。

And they do tend to be uncorrelated.

我知道现在利率在上升，但对很多这类银行来说，它们不需要在存款上支付太多利息，而在放贷时可以收取更高的利率。

I know that we see rising interest rates, but for a lot of them, they don't have to pay much on their deposits, and they can charge more for what they're lending.

对其中一些公司来说，现在可能是个挺有意思的时机。

It could be a pretty interesting time for some of those businesses.

马特，你呢？

Matt, how about you?

我觉得有一个特别符合这个问题，就是塔吉特，TGT。

One that I think actually fits the question really well is Target, TGT.

他们第二季度的同店销售额增长了差不多4%。

Their comp sales were up by almost 4% in the second quarter.

在零售业这么艰难的环境下，这已经算是很不错的成绩了。

That's among the best numbers at a tough retail environment.

我知道我们之前聊过很多其他零售商，同店销售表现不太好，但他们的线上销售很强。

I know we've talked a bunch of other retailers that weren't doing so well with comp sales, strong digital sales.

这只股票到目前为止已经涨了67%，但我其实觉得现在买比在扭亏迹象还不明显的时候买风险更低。

The stock is up by 67% on a turnaround so far, but I would actually argue that it's lower risk now than buying before the turnaround signs were were really clear.

它离历史最高点还差得远呢。

It's still well below its all time high.

他们在扭亏方面做得很好。

They're executing well on a turnaround.

这真的是一个很好的例子，你看，它已经涨了67%。

It's a really good example of, you know, it's up 67%.

也许我会先小仓位试探，然后慢慢加仓，但你显然已经看到转型见效的迹象了。

Maybe I'm gonna tiptoe into a position and build it over time, but you're clearly seeing signs that the turnaround's working.

所以这只股票目前在我的关注名单上。

So it it's one that that is on my radar right now.

好的，谢谢你，维森特，来参加节目。

Well, thank you, Vicente, for riding in.

一如既往，节目嘉宾可能会持有他们讨论的股票，而The Motley Fool也可能对这些股票有正式的推荐或反对意见，所以不要仅仅根据你听到的内容就买卖股票。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stock based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容都遵循The Motley Fool的编辑标准，并且未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告是赞助内容，仅供参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

要查看我们的完整广告披露，请查看我们的节目说明。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢我们的制作人丹·博伊德以及The Motley Fool团队的其他成员。

Thanks to our producer, Dan Boyd, and the rest of The Motley Fool team.

代表马特、泰勒和我自己。

For Matt, Tyler, and myself.

非常感谢大家今天收听我们的节目，我们下次再见。

Thank you so much for listening to our show today, and we will see you again next time.