Has Biotech Met Its Moment?

现在是入手生物科技股的时候了吗？

Is it time to buy biotech?

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You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

各位朋友，欢迎收听2025年7月21日星期一的《富比士金钱》。

Fools, welcome to Motley Fool Money for Monday, 07/21/2025.

我是你们的主持人蒂姆·贝耶斯。

I'm your host, Tim Beyers.

今天和我一起的是来自《颠覆者》团队的卡尔·蒂尔。

With me, Karl Thiel from the Rule Breakers team.

欢迎来到你的《颠覆者》播客。

Welcome to your Rule Breakers podcast.

卡尔，你今天早上感觉怎么样？

Karl, how how are feeling this morning?

准备好了聊生物科技吗？

Ready to talk biotech?

希望你已经喝过咖啡了。

Caffeinated, I hope.

我咖啡喝得足足的。

I've plenty caffeinated.

咖啡喝得足足的。

Plenty caffeinated.

我永远都不嫌咖啡喝太多。

I can't ever be too caffeinated.

我们提到这个，是因为最近LARCA的数据显示，生物技术领域的风投总额首次在2021年以来实现了同比增长。

We wanna bring this up because we have recent data from LARCA that the total VC funding in biotech increased year over year for the first time since 2021.

去年达到了214亿美元，而2023年是161亿美元。

This is last year reaching 21,400,000,000 versus 16,100,000,000 in 2023.

增幅相当可观。

That was a significant increase.

现在甚至超过了疫情前的水平。

Now that surpassed pre pandemic levels.

而且，2024年第一季度是自2022年初以来最强劲的。

Furthermore, 2024 recorded the strongest quarter since early twenty twenty two.

看来这股势头还在继续啊，Karl。

This has seemed to continue, Karl.

2024年我们收官的时候特别给力。

Like, 2024, we ended really strong.

但最近，那个生产纳洛酮的公司——说白了就是一种对抗阿片类药物的药吧，具体我也说不太准——叫Anand Chokka的公司，刚融了5600万美元的C轮资金。

But then just recently, the Narcan Maker, which is a in kind of an antinarcotic I don't really know how to describe it here, but a company named Anand Chokka raised 56,000,000 in series c capital.

我们还发现，家族办公室现在往生物科技和早期生物科技项目投的钱，额度都变大了。

And we also have some data that family offices are committing in bigger amounts to biotech and early stage biotech.

所以在咱们聊生物科技的机会之前，Karl，我想问问你：你怎么看这事儿？

So here's my question for you, Karl, before we get into the opportunity in biotech.

你觉得这波趋势怎么样？

How are you feeling about this?

私人市场现在对生物科技的兴趣，可是好久没这么高了。

The private market seems to like biotech more than it has in a while.

作为公开市场的生物科技投资者，我们能期待这一点吗？

Is that something we can look forward to as public market biotech investors?

总的来说，我的感觉是——这可能体现在我们今天聊的很多方面——就是谨慎乐观，但得加一堆前提条件。

So I guess my overall feeling, and this may come through a few different ways and and to a lot of things we talk about today, it's it's guarded optimism with lots of caveats, basically.

看到风投回暖，我很高兴。

I'm glad to see venture capital.

说实话，我看这情况，与其说是全面上升，不如说是趋于稳定。

I have to say, to me, when you look at it, it's more like it's stabilizing than that I really see a lot of things going up.

如果你看2024年之后的数据，今年第二季度其实可能创下近五个季度的新低。

I mean, if if you look ahead of the 2024 data, the the second quarter of this year looks like it's actually going to come in at a five quarter low.

确实回落了，但我没太担心这个。

It dropped back I'm down not terribly worried about that.

我觉得你看到的更多是市场在稳住，然后在观望。

I mean, what but I think what you're seeing is this stabilization and this kind of waiting.

你提到家族办公室，这确实挺有意思。对不了解的人说，这些就是特别有钱的私人投资者，他们过去投这个领域，很多时候是冲着热情来的。

But you brought up family offices, and that's a really interesting and for people who don't know, I mean, these are sort of, you know, very wealthy, private investors, right, who are or who get, you know, they tend to, I would say that in the past, family offices have been, they've often been passion projects when they invest in this sector.

可能是家里有人得过某种病，所以他们想把钱投进这个领域，类似这样的原因。

You know, maybe somebody in the family had a particular disease and they want to put money into that disease, something like that.

现在这些投资的金额变大了，常常是几个家族办公室联手，有时候还会跟普通合伙人合作。

These days, investments are getting bigger and they are often different family offices are working together or sometimes they're working with a general partner.

我觉得他们是在填补空缺，因为他们的时间线比传统风投长得多。

I feel that they're sort of stepping into the void because they have even longer timelines than a traditional VC.

他们的投资周期想多长就多长。

Their timelines are as long as they want them to be.

他们正慢慢接手那些最早期的种子项目。

They're kinda stepping into the void to take care of some of the really early seed stuff.

Anand Chokkavelu 这家公司挺有意思的。

And Anand Chokkavelu is a really interesting company.

谷歌的埃里克·施密特也参与了这家公司。

Eric Schmidt from Google is involved in that one.

这公司真的很棒，简直就是家族办公室该投的那种项目。

But, you know, that that's that's a that's a fascinating company and and just the just the the perfect kind of thing for a family office to be involved in.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这真的特别有意思。

I mean, the this is super interesting.

咱们换个话题聊聊机会吧，毕竟我们之前说过，生物科技这行一直时好时坏。

Let's pivot to the opportunity because, again, we said that biotech has been really hit or miss.

《The Motley Fool Rule Breakers》的投资组合里，生物科技这块儿已经占了快二十年了，从服务一开始就是如此。

It's a big part of the The Motley Fool Rule Breakers scorecard has been just short of forever, really, since the beginning of the service over twenty years ago.

所以我特别想聊聊这个，毕竟它确实起伏太大了。

So I wanna talk about this because it has been hit or miss.

我们曾经两次推荐过XBI——这个生物科技主题的ETF，结果两次都比大盘低了35%到60%，就在我们录这期节目的时候。

We've twice recommended the XBI, which is a biotech themed ETF, and both positions have lost to the market by 3560% as, you know, our recording.

那现在为什么是个更值得留意的时机呢？

Why is now a more interesting time?

除了私人市场这么活跃之外，现在IPO也开始多了起来，作为生物科技投资者，你觉得现在为什么是个好时机？

In addition to all of this activity in the private market, and we're starting to see more IPOs, why is now an interesting time for you as a biotech investor?

那哪些点能让公开市场的投资者对这件事更感兴趣呢？

What should get the public market investors more excited about this?

对的

Yeah.

其实我觉得咱们持有的XBI仓位刚好反映了整个大市场的状况，说白了这些仓位本身的绝对跌幅其实并不大。

Well, I think our XBI positions are sort of reflective of what's going on in the broader market, which is that the in absolute terms, those positions aren't down sharply.

哦对了，昨晚的情况……不对，

Think last night No,

表现就是跑不赢大盘。

they're just losing to the market.

没错。

Right.

就是跑输大盘了而已。

They're just losing to the market.

对吧？

Right?

这其实正是你看到的情况，就像风投融资一样，生物科技现在基本上原地踏步。

And that's kind of exactly what you're seeing, which is, you know, as with the VC funding, biotech's kind of moving sideways right now.

之前有一阵子，市场可是猛涨的。

And for a while, the markets were moving sharply higher.

最近这段时间，波动又大了一些。

There's been some more volatility around that.

但问题是，为什么现在反而是投资生物科技的好时机？

But the question, why is this a good time to be investing in biotech?

让我先简单说说，为什么大家还是这么悲观。

Think, let me first briefly say why everything continues to be so negative.

以前悲观的原因无非是利率太高、并购活动稀少，再加上一批本不该那么早上市的公司涌进来，市场还在慢慢消化，一堆烂摊子等着清理。

The reasons to be negative before were high interest rates, lack of M and A, this sort of overdraft of companies that came public when they shouldn't have early on that the market was still digesting and just the slop that needed to get out of the system.

现在这些情况，有那么一点点在好转。

Some of those are getting a little bit better.

今年其实已经看到不少特别有意思的并购案，好几笔都是几十亿美元的大交易，这可是非常看好的信号。

Actually have seen some really interesting M and A this year, a lot of multi billion dollar deals, and that's super bullish.

但与此同时，有些问题依然存在。

But at the same time, some of those are still in place.

另外，现在大家又开始担心FDA那边的动向，他们打算怎么监管，药价和政治环境又会怎么发展。

And then we've got a new collection of worries around what's going on at the FDA, and how are they going to regulate things, and what's going on with pricing and the political environment.

这些担忧还都悬在生物技术行业头上。

All those things are still hanging over the sector.

所以，现在要是想当个坚定的多头，你得有点逆向思维，得看得见这堵‘担忧之墙’，还相信市场能爬得过去。

So, to be a real bull right now, you do have to be a little bit contrarian and kind of look at a wall of worry that you think this market can climb.

我的意思是，想挑出一堆谨慎的理由，那可太容易了。

I mean, there's still plenty of reasons to be cautious that you can point out.

说到XBI，我本人其实没太盯着它，毕竟它只是整个行业的风向标，大家平时都说‘看看XBI就知道生物技术怎么样了’。

And to the XBI in particular, I guess the reason I've been a little less personally sort of focused on the XBI, I mean, it is a proxy for the whole sector that people, you know, that's sort of the commonly used tool to say, how is biotech doing?

一有动静，大家就去看XBI。

Let's look at the XBI.

但它是个覆盖面太广的指数。

But it's a very broad index.

它的加权方式是平均分配，所以一直在重新调整，不会偏向大公司。

It's got this kind of equal weighting formula so that it's getting rebalanced all the time and doesn't favor the large cap companies.

说实话，现在更值得花功夫精挑细选板块里的个股，而不是盲目跟大盘。

I think it's a better time, honestly, for taking very careful picks within the sector, rather than just broad market exposure.

等行情真反转的时候，广谱投资才会显出优势。

The broad market exposure pays off when things finally turn around.

我觉得迟早会迎来这么一天。

And I do think that happens eventually.

但我觉得，如果你能仔细挑公司，说不定能做得更好——不光蹭到行业整体的东风，还能抓住那些被低估的、自家独有的亮点。

But I think, you know, you can maybe do better picking carefully individual companies that that can not only get a sort of general industry lift, but also have, you know, some of their own specific things going on that are underappreciated.

我听你提过两次，说选生物科技股时有两个关键点，特别适合放进‘规则破坏者’选股清单里。

There there's two things I've heard you say to me about when you're talking about biotechs that you wanna maybe focus in on that might be an an interesting play, like ones that we wanna add to the rule breaker scorecard, for example.

你跟我说过两次，就是这两个标准。

Two things that I I have heard from you.

一个是科学基础扎实，公司手头资金也够用，这样就有足够时间慢慢发展，冲着重磅药物去。

One is if the science is really good and the way and the and the capital that the company has is good enough, that is that's a company that's giving itself runway to maybe get to scale and develop a blockbuster drug.

这可能是个值得冒的风险。

That may be a worthwhile risk.

所以这是我听你提到过的一个点。

So that's one I've heard you talk about.

另一个是，当公司本身有足够的价值，让那些想低价收购的资本玩家忍不住垂涎三尺的时候。

The other is when there's enough there there that the vulture that could come along and acquire this company at a premium, you know, might be salivating a little bit more.

这两点共同造就了生物科技领域绝佳的回报潜力。

And those those two things sort of create the conditions for really good potential biotech returns.

你觉得现在这种机会变多了吗？

Do you think we're seeing more of those types of situations right now?

我觉得现在的情况是，大药企之前一直袖手旁观，但再这么拖下去，他们真扛不住了。

I think you're seeing a situation in which, in terms of buying out companies in which, big pharma has been a little bit sitting on the sidelines, but they they can't really afford to keep doing that.

像默克这样的公司就挺直白的，他们明摆着在到处找标的，钱包敞着，到处扫货——总不能一直让研发管线空着吧。

And so there's companies like Merck has been sort of very open about, you know, that they are out shopping, the wallet is open, they are looking around, you know, they can't put off for ever filling pipelines.

大多数大药企现在都面临专利悬崖的集中到期，压力山大。

There is a lot of big, big cliff patent cliff situations going on at most of the big pharma companies.

专利悬崖就是说，一种药还在专利保护期内，但马上就要被迫变成仿制药了。

And a patent cliff meaning like a drug that is under patent, but going to be forced to become generic.

没错。

Exactly.

所以你会看到一些公司，它们20%、30%、40%甚至60%的收入，未来几年都会被仿制药冲垮，基本就没了。

So you see companies that have, you know, twenty, thirty, 40, 60% of their revenue is going to, you know, essentially open up to generic competition and largely disappear over the next few years.

这事儿可不小。

It's a big deal.

所以，这是其中一个原因。

So, that's one thing.

但我想接着你刚才说的，还得看两点：他们真有科研实力吗？手头有钱吗？

But I guess the other thing I'd say into what you just said is, you know, do they have the science and do they have the cash?

对，我现在觉得还得更挑剔一点——他们真有科研实力吗？

Yes, I would add to that right now, I think you have to be even more picky, which is do they have the science?

他们真有钱吗？

Do they have the cash?

他们现在离上市还远吗？

And are they pretty close to market right now?

你知道，就算科学做得再好，

You know, having having great

也得快到获批那一步才行。

through science to approval almost.

对。

Right.

你得看得出一条清晰的主线。

You've got to see a you've got to see a through line.

我觉得现在这样的机会多的是，没必要去赌早期的科研项目。

I just think there's enough opportunities like that, that you don't need to play the hero with earlier stage science.

当然，早期项目也可能有巨大回报，但从风险收益比来看，很多晚期公司已经临近上市、刚上市，甚至已经开始快速增长了，咱们完全可以聚焦这些。

I mean, there's obviously, there's gonna be some great payoffs there, but like risk adjusted, feel like there are a lot of very late stage companies that are near market, on the market, or even on the market and already seeing sharp sales ramps that you can kind of more focus there.

有道理。

Fair enough.

好的。

All right.

我们来聊聊其中两家。

We're gonna talk about two of them.

接下来，哪家生物技术公司更胜一筹？

Up next, which is the better biotech?

Viking。

Viking

还是礼来？

or Eli Lilly?

咱们下一段就来掰扯一下。

We're gonna battle it out next.

好了，Karl。

Alright, Karl.

咱们说说你提到的那两家公司，就是那些不用当英雄、药已经上市或者马上就要上市的公司。

Let's talk about two companies that you mentioned not playing the hero, you know, companies that have drugs that are either on the market or very, very close to on the market.

这两类都有涉及。

And we've got a mixture of both.

你知道，礼来在减肥药这块儿做得特别出色。

You know, on the market, Eli Lilly has done exceptionally well with weight loss drugs.

Mounjaro 和 Zepbound，它们可是跟那个咱们福布斯听众肯定听过的司美格鲁肽直接对打的劲敌。

Mounjaro and Zepbound, they are the strong rivals to one that Fools you certainly have heard of called Ozempic.

但维京医药呢，手上有好几款处于后期研发阶段的药物，挺有潜力在这块儿跟他们竞争的。

But Viking has a late stage drug, actually more than one late stage drug that is interesting in competing in this space.

所以卡尔，你给我们详细说说。

So Karl, break it down for us here.

你看看这两家公司，每家给我讲一个优势、一个劣势。

You know, when you look at these two, give me give me one advantage and one disadvantage of of each.

或者你干脆直接说，你更看好哪一家？

Or if you want to just tell me which of these two do you favor?

说实话，如果你看重安全性和稳定性，那礼来明显是更稳妥的选择。

Look, if if you're oriented towards, you know, safety and, stability, Lilly is plainly the better company to go with here.

我的意思是，他们不仅在市场上去得领先。

I mean, that that they're, not only winning in the marketplace.

你看，Mounjaro 和 Zepbound 的销量已经超过了 Ozempic。

I mean, you know, Mounjaro and Zepbound have surpassed Ozempic.

而且他们的后续产品管线也特别强大。

They also have a tremendous follow on pipeline.

当你看谁在研发下一代 GLP 类药物时，往往他们不止一种作用机制。

I mean, it's when when you look at who are developing the the best next generation, sort of GLP and related drugs, often they're they're more than one mechanism.

都是 GLP 加上其他机制的组合。

It's GLP plus other mechanisms.

LLY 不一定在每个领域都排第一，但基本总在顶尖行列。

LLY is not necessarily at the top in every category, but they're they're always near the top.

他们在这一块做得真是一点都不错。

They've really done a great, great job in this area.

更别提他们还是家业务多元的药企，其他领域也都有不少布局。

Not to mention the fact that they are a a diverse pharmaceutical company with with, you know, lots of other things going on in other areas.

不过话说回来，现在市场基本上就是礼来和诺和诺德两家垄断，说白了就两款药，虽然市面上有几个品牌名，但核心就两种成分：替尔泊肽和司美格鲁肽。

That said, you know, right now, the market is essentially a duopoly between Lilly and Novo Nordisk, and, you know, largely about two products even though there's a few brand name floating around that's really just two compounds, tirzepatide and semaglutide.

但这种情况不会一直持续下去。

That is not always gonna be this way.

这些药在一年到两年内的停药率高得吓人。

And the the discontinuation rates of these drugs, over like a one and two year period is is horrific.

很多人用着用着就放弃了，这说明这些药的长期副作用真的挺让人受不了的。

I mean, people just, you know, they're not staying on them, which tells you something about the the sort of long term, wear of the side effects of these drugs.

所以改进空间还很大，不少公司都在抢着入局。

So there's a lot of room for improvement, and there's a lot of companies buying to do it.

我觉得Viking在这个领域特别有潜力。

I think Viking is a super interesting pick in the space.

我得说清楚，当我提到那些快要把药推向市场的公司时，Viking可不在这类公司里。

I will say, you know, when I talk about companies that are sort of like on the verge of of going to market, this is not one of them.

他们前面还有很长的路要走。

They've got a lot of work ahead of them.

他们已经进入后期阶段了。

They are they are late stage.

他们已经进入后期阶段了。

They are late stage.

他们已经开始针对注射剂型进行三期临床试验。

They began their phase three in their injectable formulation of their drug.

他们的口服药剂则落后一些。

Their oral drug is a little bit farther behind.

未来两三年内就会有数据出来。

We'll see data in the next couple of years.

但说真的，我觉得这还是个挺有风险的押注。

But, you know, it still remains to me a relatively speculative bet.

不过呢，如果你追求最大回报，Viking 和礼来比起来简直小到可以忽略。

That said, it's one where, you know, if you're looking for maximum returns, I mean, Viking is tiny, tiny, tiny compared to, Lilly.

完全有可能带来惊人的回报。

Could see absolutely massive returns.

对我来说，这个投资在整体投资组合里，完全可以算作一个高风险高回报的押注。

And this would be one that to me you would slot in as a, as a speculative bet in a in a larger portfolio.

说实话，我们在‘破局者’策略里就喜欢这种类型。

I mean, and we sometimes like that in rule breakers.

我直接问你个问题：在这两家里面，你觉得Viking是个不错的并购目标吗？

Let me put you on the spot here and say of these two, actually, before I put you on the spot here, do you think that Viking is a pretty good m and a candidate?

它是不是那种科研扎实、现金流充足、特别吸引大公司来收购的生物科技公司？

Does it fit into that theme of biotechs that are really producing good science, have the cash, very attractive, somebody to come in and swoop this one up?

那当然了，绝对是。

Oh, it absolutely is.

整个行业里，并购交易多得不得了。

I mean, there's been a tremendous amount of of m and a in the sector.

尤其是减肥药这个领域，简直太火了。

I mean, in I mean, specifically around the obesity space.

好多公司都被抢着收购了。

I mean, companies have been snapped up.

你看像辉瑞这样的大药企，这方面需求特别大，但他们自己的减肥项目都搞砸了。

And you when you look at large pharma that have great needs in the area, like Pfizer, for instance, needs products, their own obesity programs flamed out.

你肯定会觉得，他们肯定在到处收购，但不止他们，其他公司也一样。

You know, you would you would think, they would certainly be in the market to be buying, and they're not the only ones.

不过到目前为止，Viking 似乎一点也不想被收购。

That said, Viking has not shown much interest in being acquired so far.

我猜这些谈判肯定在悄悄进行，所以我觉得 Viking 这回是要价很高。

So I I'm sure these, these conversations are taking place, but, you know, and so so I assume that Viking is driving a very, very hard bargain.

到目前为止，他们的数据确实非常漂亮。

They they do have really good data to date.

数据还算是早期的，我可不敢过度乐观，但真的挺出色的。

It's it's it's early data, so, you know, I don't wanna overestimate it, but it's it's really good.

我觉得他们对这个产品特别有信心，而且比大多数公司都领先一步。

I think they're very confident in the product, and they are a little bit farther ahead than most people.

所以我觉得，他们开的价肯定不会低。

So I I I think, they're gonna ask for a big price tag.

那你打算跟谁合作？

Who are you going with then?

你是选Viking还是选礼来？

So are you going with Viking or are you going with Lilly?

未来五年谁的表现会更出色？你押谁？

So outperforming over the next five years, who you got?

要说谁表现更牛，我肯定选Viking，因为只要他们这回能成，礼来根本没戏，根本追不上。

So outperforming, yeah, I will go with Viking just because, I mean, if they hit with this, there there's, you know, there's no way Lilly is gonna be able to, yeah, to to you know, Lilly is not gonna hit.

这玩意儿太猛了。

It's a monster.

五倍潜力。

Quintuple.

没错。

Right.

对。

Right.

没错。

Right.

就是这样。

Exactly.

对啊。

Yeah.

但这确实要危险得多。

But it is certainly way, way riskier.

是啊。

Yeah.

我也选Viking。

I'm going with Viking as well.

如果这真是个打破常规的案例。

If this is this is a classic rule breaker.

一旦成功，会是个超级倍增股。

If it hits, it will be a massive multibagger.

所以Viking Therapeutics，股票代码是VKTX。

So Viking Therapeutics, the ticker is, VKTX.

好的。

Alright.

接下来，来点小知识。

Up next, a little trivia.

准备好笔记，在评论里告诉我，历史上第一家生物技术公司是哪家？

Get your notepad ready and let us know in the comments what company is generally considered history's first biotech.

我们下一条就揭晓答案。

We're coming back with that next.

好了，Karl。

All right, Karl.

跟往常一样，我喜欢用点冷知识、小历史来收尾，帮大家更深入了解我们聊的这个市场。

So as always, I like to end these with a little bit of trivia, a little bit of history, try to help members understand a little bit more about the market we're talking about.

这次呢，我们一直在聊生物技术领域。

In this case, we've been talking about the biotech market.

我特别想知道你的答案，等你说了之后，我再跟大家分享一点细节。

I'm super curious of your answer here, and I've got a little bit of detail that we'll we'll talk about after I get your answer.

各位粉丝，赶紧在评论区留下你的答案吧。

But, Fools, go ahead and give your answer in the comments.

历史上第一家生物技术公司是哪家？

What company is generally considered history's first biotech?

卡尔，你觉得呢？

Karl, what is your answer on this?

我真的很想听听你怎么说。

I am really interested to hear what you say.

我倒想先听听你会怎么说。

Well, I'm interested to hear what you're gonna say.

我觉得这儿就两种可能的答案。

This is part I I think there's only two possible answers here.

哪两种？

What are they?

我挺清楚是哪家的。

I'm pretty clear I'm pretty clear on which it is.

就是它了。

It's Okay.

你可以说它是基因泰克，但我觉得明显是凯特公司。

You could argue that it's Genentech, but I think it's pretty clearly Cedis Corp.

明白了。

Okay.

挺有意思的。

Very interesting.

所以我们得好好聊聊凯特公司。我之前问了Gemini，它说——我直接引述啊——虽然生物技术广义上可以追溯到酿酒、发酵这些古老实践，但现代生物技术产业的诞生，尤其是基于基因工程的，普遍被认为是1976年赫伯特·博耶和风投罗伯特·斯旺森创立基因泰克之后才开始的。

So we need to hear more about Cetus Corp because when I put this to Gemini, Gemini said, and I'm quoting here, while biotechnology broadly defined as roots in ancient practices like brewing fermentation, the birth of the modern biotech industry focused on genetic engineering is generally associated with the founding of Genentech, founded in 1976 by Herbert Boyer and venture capitalist Robert Swanson.

那你再给我讲讲凯特公司吧。

So tell me more about CDIS.

对。

Yeah.

Genentech之所以被提出来，是因为他们成立的初衷就是为了利用重组DNA技术，生产那些你根本没法用其他方法制造出来的蛋白质。

So Genentech, the argument for that is that they were specifically founded to take care, to to take advantage of, your sort of recombinant, DNA techniques to make proteins that you, you know, you couldn't manufacture otherwise.

Cetus公司比他们早五年，也就是1970年成立的，没错。

Cetus Corp was founded five years before that in '19 Yeah.

它最初其实是一家微生物公司，刚起步的时候主要做工业酶这类东西，但后来成了生物技术领域的巨头。

'70 And it was it was basically a microbiology company that was set up, you know, initially what they were doing was more sort of industrial making enzymes and stuff, but they became a biotech giant.

他们的一款产品——Prolukin，到现在还在市场上卖呢。

One of their products is still on the market today, Prolukin.

他们才是PCR技术的发明者，具体是Cetus的Carrie Mullis搞出来的，我当年还采访过她，诺贝尔奖得主啊。她发明的聚合酶链式反应，到现在还是基因测序最核心的技术。

And they are the ones who developed PCR, specifically Carrie Mullis at Cedars Corp, who I got to interview once, Nobel laureate, developed the polymerase chain reaction, which is the DNA amplification technique that is still core today for most, gene sequencing.

光凭这一点，我就觉得Cetus才应该是第一家真正的生物技术公司。

And, if nothing else, I think that cements them as the first company.

挺有意思的是，Gemini也提到了Cetus，但把它当成了亚军。

I so interestingly enough that Gemini did mention Cetus, but it mentioned Cetus as as the runner-up.

我特别好奇这个，因为我觉得我跟你说过，虽然你教我的生物技术知识比我从任何人那儿学的都多。

I was super curious about this because I think I've I've told you this even though I've learned more about biotech from you than anybody else.

我祖父上世纪五六十年代在施贵宝做研究医生。

My my grandfather was a a research research doctor at Squibb back in the nineteen fifties and nineteen sixties.

所以我本来以为，施贵宝可能算不上第一家生物技术公司，但至少这行应该能追溯到三四十年代吧？结果没想到，真正起步是七十年代。

So I thought, like, I have thought not that Squibb would be the first biotech, but it would be like, well, surely this goes back to, like, the nineteen thirties or nineteen forties, but, nope, It's the nineteen seventies.

所以这还是个挺新的行业。

So this is still a relatively new industry.

咱们算算，这行今年才刚满五十四年。

We're we're really you know, if you wanna count, we're fifty four years into the into the industry.

这么说来，咱们这行确实还很年轻。

That makes us a fairly young industry.

没错。

Absolutely.

对。

Yeah.

而且不少早期的先驱者现在还活着。

And and, you know, a lot of the, some of the pioneers are still around.

有一些公司，比如我刚看了Sarepta，SRPT最近挺火的，不是因为好事，但挺有话题性的。

There are companies I mean, I I was just looking Sarepta, SRPT is in the news a lot right now, not for good reasons, but for interesting reasons.

不过这只是个例子，这家公司从1980年就起步了。

But I mean, that's another that's just an example of a company that's its original, DNA goes back to 1980.

对吧？

Right?

还有Biogen，都追溯到1970年了。

There's a lot Biogen goes back to 1970.

很多第一代公司，到现在还活得好好的呢。

I mean, it's it's, a lot of these first generation companies are still what's cooking today.

不仅还在，而且还在继续发展。

And still and still cooking and and still going.

好了，Karl。

Alright, Karl.

谢谢你来参加。

Thanks for thanks for being here.

谢谢你聊生物科技的话题。

Thanks for talking biotech.

真的很感谢。

Appreciate that.

各位听众注意啊，节目中提到的股票，嘉宾可能有持仓，而魔幻基金也可能有正式的买入或卖出建议。

Fools, as always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以别光听节目就急着买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有理财内容都遵循魔幻基金的编辑标准，广告商无权干预。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告内容只是提供信息，属于赞助性质。

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想看完整的广告披露说明，请查节目简介。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check our show notes.

感谢我们的工程师丹·博伊德，还有制片人阿南德·乔克卡韦卢。

For our engineer, Dan Boyd, for our producer, Anand Chokkavelu.

我是蒂姆·贝耶斯，为您带来卡尔·蒂尔的节目。

For Karl Thiel, I'm Tim Beyers.

各位朋友，谢谢收听。

Fools, thank you for tuning in.

明天再见。

See you again tomorrow.

木兰。

Mulan.