OpenAI和Anthipo的IPO热潮升温

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我是 Travis Hoium。

I'm Travis Hoium.

今天和我一起的是 Lou Whiteman 和 Jason Moser。

I'm joined today by Lou Whiteman and Jason Moser.

各位，过去几周我们看到了很多财报，但所有这些财报背后的背景似乎是 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 正在竞相冲刺他们的 IPO。

And guys, we've had a lot of earnings over the past couple of weeks, but the backdrop of all of these earnings reports seems to be Anthropic and OpenAI racing towards their IPOs.

他们正尽可能多地获取计算资源。

They're trying to get as much compute as possible.

他们正尽可能快地增长收入。

They're trying to grow revenue as much as possible.

我们今年已经看到SpaceX的IPO，估值我记得差不多达到了两万亿美元。

We've already seen SpaceX IPO this year got to I think it was a nearly a $2,000,000,000,000 valuation.

我不知道它有没有真的突破那个数字，之后很快就回落了。

I don't know if it ever ever popped above that, fell back pretty quickly after that.

但是，Lou，这周我们了解到OpenAI的收入开始追赶Anthropic了，因为他们定价上稍微更激进一些。

But, Lou, we did learn this week that OpenAI OpenAI is starting to catch up to Anthropic with their revenue because of, you know, a little bit more aggressive pricing.

我觉得这两家公司也都愿意为算力付高价。

They're also I think both these companies are willing to pay top dollar for compute.

所以在考虑这些的时候，我一会儿想特别提到一下那些新云服务商，但我们应该怎么看待这些公司的增长，以及它是否盈利呢？

So as we think about that, and I wanna I wanna get to some of the neoclouds in particular in just a moment, but how should we be thinking about the growth of these companies and whether or not it's profitable?

因为现在看起来，他们几乎是拼了命在增长。

Because it does seem a little bit like they're growing almost at all cost at this point.

他们当然应该这样。

As they should.

对。

Yeah.

确实如此。

And that is.

而且利润并不是必需的。

And I profits are not a requirement.

就像我们在SpaceX IPO中看到的那样，现在利润并不是必需的。

They are not as we saw with the SpaceX IPO, profits are not required now.

增长才是必需的。

Growth is required.

所以他们正在做他们应该做的事情。

So they are doing what they should do.

你看。

Look.

情况可能明天就会改变，但就目前而言，资金来源很多。

It could turn tomorrow, but as of now, there's a lot of source of capital.

而且随着Anthropic和OpenAI上市，资金来源会更多。

And as Anthropic and OpenAI go public, there's even more sources of capital.

当市场告诉你需要利润的时候，你就需要利润。

You need profits when the market tells you you need profits.

作为管理团队，难就难在你不一定能提前三英里看到出口标志。

The hard thing as a management team is is that you don't necessarily get a exit sign three miles in advance.

你不会提前得到警告。

You don't get a warning.

所以最好提前准备好利润，等它们来的时候就能接住。

So you better be ready for profits when they come.

但就目前来看，没有任何迹象表明市场担心这个季度的业绩。

But as of now, there is nothing that tells us that the market is worried about this quarter's results.

他们对你在做什么感到好奇，所以去做出点名堂来。希望这些公司能一直走下去，因为我也不知道它们什么时候才能实现盈利。

They're curious about what you're building, so go out and build something, and may it long continue for these companies because I don't know when they're gonna hit profitability.

Jason，你是这么看的吗？

Jason, is that how you see this?

因为过去一周确实有点像是，我觉得那些新云计算公司就是很好的例子。

Because it does look a little bit like I think the neoclouds were a good example over the past week.

这些数字太惊人了。

The numbers are phenomenal.

卢说得对。

Lou's right.

收入数字非常漂亮。

The revenue numbers are great.

但每次我看这些公司，我都在想什么能持续，什么不能，因为看起来确实像是无限指数增长。

But every time I look at these companies, I'm wondering what is sustainable and what isn't because it does seem like we have this exponential growth to infinity.

我的意思是，甚至看到预测说SpaceX能增加10吉瓦的容量，那相当于几百亿美元的客户收入。

I mean, even saw projections that that SpaceX could add 10 gigawatts worth of capacity, which would be several $100,000,000,000 worth of end of customer revenue.

我不太确定这些数字从哪来，但看起来这些公司确实在飞速增长，而且我不确定这种增长的尽头在哪里。

I'm not sure exactly where that comes from, but it does seem like these companies are growing at an astronomical pace, and and I'm not sure where the end of that is.

对。

Yeah.

这让我想到一种投资风格，GARP，也就是合理价格增长，对吧。

It makes me think of, like, you know, that investing style GARP, right, growth at a reasonable price.

这些企业就是不惜一切代价追求增长。

These businesses are just growth at all cost.

而现在，市场完全是按增长来给这些公司定价的。

And and right now, I mean, market is pricing these companies entirely on growth.

完全不考虑利润率。

No regard as far as margins are concerned.

我理解这一点。

And I mean, get that.

今天这样是合理的。

That makes sense today.

问题是，这种情况能持续多久？

The question mark is how long will that be tolerated?

我怀疑，还会持续一段时间。

My suspicion is, it will be tolerated for a while.

那句老话怎么说来着？

What's that old saying?

市场保持非理性的时间，可能比你保持偿付能力的时间还要长，差不多是这个意思。

The the market, can can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent or something like

对。

that.

对吧？

Right?

我是说，这可能会看起来不理性，而且我们确实没有看到清晰的盈利路径，因为你说得对。

I mean, this this is going to it may seem irrational and and we're not exactly seeing the clear pathway to profitability because, I mean, you're right.

所有这些对算力的投资，他们当然是在为此付出高昂代价。

All of all of these investments in compute, I mean, they're they're paying up for it, of course.

但最终的回报是什么？

But but what is the ultimate return?

我觉得这就是我们大家都在问的问题。

And and I think that's what we're all kind of asking.

现在在企业层面可能更容易看清，但我敢打赌，如果你去大街上随便问一些人，比如“嘿，AI现在对你的生活有什么影响？”

It's probably easier to see at the enterprise level right now, but my my bet is if you just go take a walk down in a main street and just ask a random sample of people like, hey, how how is AI impacting your life today?

大多数人可能会说，我不知道。

Most people would probably be like, I don't know.

我是说，也许他们用过大型语言模型。

I mean, that maybe they use an LLM.

对吧？

Right?

也许他们……这让

Maybe they It makes

客户支持变得更糟糕了。对。

customer support worse to interact Right.

我是说，所以我觉得我们需要看到那个时刻，真正理解这些点是如何连接起来的。

I mean, so I I think that's that's we need to sort of see that moment where we we really understand how these dots all connect.

而且我毫不怀疑我们最终会到达那里，但在那之前，你知道，这些公司会继续筹集资金，不惜一切代价追求增长，然后希望，我猜，利润最终会到来。

And and I I don't doubt that we'll get there eventually, but until we do, you know, these companies are gonna just gonna continue to to raise money, spend on growth at all costs, and hope, I guess, that profits come at some point.

对我来说，疑问在于这些利润最终到底从哪里来。

I think the question mark for me is where do those profits really ultimately come from?

因为再说回整个社会，大多数人并没有为Claude或Gemini之类的订阅付费。

Because I again, going back to just general society, like most people are not paying for subscriptions to Claude or Gemini or whatever.

我的意思是，实际上只有极小比例的人会为这些订阅付费。

I mean, it it is just a very minuscule percentage of people that actually pay for those subscriptions.

所以这不会成为收入来源。

So that's not going to be a source of income.

这不会是解决方案。

That's not going to be the solution.

这就引出了一个问题，会是广告吗？

That begs the question, will it be advertising?

嗯，我不知道。

Well, I don't know.

谷歌在这方面做得不错，但我想我们只能拭目以待了。

It's worked out well for Google, but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

很难想象所有这些公司都能成为赢家，这真的非常难。

It's hard to imagine a world where all of these companies are winners, which is really, really hard.

因为就算我同意你的看法，J Mo。

Because even if I agree with you, J Mo.

我是说，你看。

I mean, look.

你能想象谷歌即使是做AI搜索，现在还要对搜索收费吗？

Can you imagine Google trying to charge for search even if it's AI search now?

没错。

Exactly.

根本行不通。

Nonstarter.

那肯定就得是，你知道吧？

It's going to have to be you know?

我不清楚。

I don't know.

广告，我觉得会变，但也许还会保留。

And in advertising, I guess, will change, but maybe stay.

很难想象，除了那些个人助理之类的东西，我甚至见过这些。

It's hard to imagine short of I mean, I've even seen these, like, personal assistant things.

而且我觉得生活，至少对我来说，不够固定，没法完全按照个人助理那种方式来安排。

And they I don't think life, or at least life for me isn't rigid enough to fit into the confines of a personal assistant the way they do them.

所以我觉得这真的很难卖。

So I think it's a real tough sell.

对于能获得牵引力的企业来说是这样，但即便如此，我还没看到任何迹象表明，比如，我们正在和Anthropic签十年合同之类的。

It is for the enterprise who can gain traction, but even then, I haven't seen anything to suggest like, oh, we are just signing a ten year deal with Anthropic or something like that.

即使是那样，公司之间的合作也感觉很短暂。

Even that feels very fleeting company to company.

我觉得这里肯定有实质性的东西。

I there's definitely a there there.

就像Jason说的，这里肯定有事情在发生。

Like Jason says, there is definitely something is involving here.

这里确实有东西。

There's something there.

但如何转化为这些公司的可持续利润，我不知道。

But how it turns into sustainable profits for any of these companies, I don't know.

作为投资者，这是个奇怪的时刻，因为我既向你保证，特拉维斯，这不可持续，也不会对每个人都有效，但我现在也不会让你把钱押在反对它上面，你知道吗？

I it's it's a weird moment as an investor because I both guarantee you, Travis, that this is not sustainable and it won't work for everyone, and I wouldn't put your money out there betting against it right now because you know?

所以，你就有点卡住了，卢。

So so so you're just kinda stuck Lou.

在

In

我很感激。

I appreciate that.

对。

Yeah.

你有点卡在这个梦幻世界里，我知道这不可能永远持续，但天哪，现在它确实有效。

You're you're kinda stuck in this la la land where I know it can't last forever, but gosh, it works right now.

这非常非常令人不安，至少对我这个保守的人来说是这样，我不是那种冒险的人。

And that's a very, very unsettling at least for me as kind of a conservative and I'm not a YOLO guy.

这种处境让人挺不安的。你会有种怕错过的焦虑，觉得自己不参与不行；但同时你也清楚，后面还有另一章要写，而且那部分可没现在这么精彩。

And it's a very unsettling place to be where you kind of don't want to you have FOMO if you're not involved, and you also know that there is another chapter to be written here and it's not nearly as exciting.

不过，作为投资者，持有像亚马逊和Alphabet这样的公司确实让人心里踏实。没错，它们确实在投入巨资，投资回报也存在疑问，但至少它们还有这些业务可以保底，对吧？

Well, and it makes you feel good as an investor, like owning companies like Amazon and Alphabet, for example, where yes, they're making these huge investments and sure there are question marks as to the return on that investment, but at least they've got these businesses to fall back on, right?

我的意思是，万一这些新业务没能达到我们预期的回报，至少它们还有现有的核心业务——那些已经养成的现金牛——可以依靠。

I mean, if this turns out to just not return what we all hope it will, at least they have these core businesses to fall back on these cash cows that they've already got.

而像OpenAI或Anthropic这样的公司，目前更像是一招鲜。

Whereas with an OpenAI, with an Anthropic, that's more of a one trick pony right now.

话虽如此，但这情况未必会一直持续。

And it's not to say that'll always be the case.

我的意思是，他们或许也能开辟出多种不同的收入来源。

I mean, may be able to introduce a number of different revenue streams as well.

我不是说他们做不到，只是眼下，在这个市场日益同质化的背景下，他们看起来还只是个只会一招的选手。

I'm not saying they can't, but for now, I mean, essentially they are just kind of one trick ponies in a market that seems to become just more and more commoditized by the day.

另外，我们还得谈谈我认为新出现的风险，这个风险存在于……

Let's also bring in the risk that I think is new in the in the

过去六个月。

last six months.

倒也不是完全新鲜事，只是我们好像进入了一个新阶段，所以

Not entirely new, but we've kind of gone to a new phase where so

这么多

much

这些积累现在很大程度上是靠债务来推动的。

of this buildup is now being fueled by debt.

所以这些超大规模云厂商现在背负着巨额债务，高达数百亿美元。

So you have the hyperscalers, which are now taking on immense amounts of debt, tens of billions of dollars worth of debt.

就连Alphabet也在烧光所有运营现金流，自由现金流已经转负了。

Even Alphabet is now burning through all of its operating cash is now free cash flow negative.

不过Lou，我们之前聊过那些新兴云服务商。

But Lou, we talked about the the neoclouds.

它们现在正处在竞争的最前线。

They're sort of on the front lines here.

我觉得特别有意思的一点是，大家都在说，我们对算力的需求远超目前的供应能力。

And the the piece that I think is so interesting is everybody is saying we have more demand than we can supply for this compute.

所以为了买内存，不管花多少钱都得付；为了借债，不管成本多高也得扛，而且有些债务的成本还在涨。

So we have to pay whatever it takes for memory, we have to pay whatever it takes for debt, some of those debt costs are going up.

但如果你把这些环节串起来看，CoreWeave 说有大量需求，但这些需求其实来自 Alphabet、Meta 或微软。而这些巨头的需求，归根结底又源自我们开头提到的几家准备上市的公司，比如 OpenAI 和 Anthropic。

But you tie all of these pieces together and Core Weave says we have a bunch of demand, but that demand comes from Alphabet or from Meta or from Microsoft, and that demand for Microsoft and Alphabet and Meta ultimately comes from a couple of these companies that we talked about at the beginning that are looking to IPO, OpenAI and Anthropic.

所以看起来一切最终都绕回原点：这会不会是一座建立在特定两家公司之上的纸牌屋？这两家公司目前仍处于高速增长期，但我们还不清楚它们的盈利状况究竟会怎样。

So it does all seem to come back to, is this a house of cards that's built on top of specifically those two companies that are still in kind of this high growth mode, but we don't know what their profitability is gonna be like.

我们该怎么看待这种层层叠加的债务问题？

How do we think about debt layering into this?

因为这确实把风险推到了一个新的水平。

Because it does seem to take the risk to a new new level.

没错。

Right.

债务本身是个很棒的工具，前提是你得能还得上，而很多财富的流失恰恰就栽在了这后半句上。

Debt is a fantastic tool, assuming you pay the debt back, and many of fortunes have been lost on that second part.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，这就是关键所在。

I mean, that is the thing.

债务，我们今天能住上房子，都是靠债务。

Debt we all are living in houses today thanks to debt.

所以，你知道，债务确实有很好的用途。

So I you know, there are really good uses of debt.

这是纸牌屋还是稳固的基础，完全取决于他们能否兑现承诺。

This is a house of cards or it's a solid foundation that all depends on whether or not they can come through.

他们其实并不需要盈利。

They don't even really need profits here.

所有这些公司，他们都不需要盈利。

All of these companies, they don't need profits.

你只需要持续的现金流。

You just need sustained cash flow.

你只需要能够维持那个收入。

You just need to be able to sustain that revenue.

对于投资者来说，你需要利润。

For investors, you need the profits.

但对于贷款方来说，你只需要有现金进账。

But for the for the lenders, all you need is just cash coming in the door.

而且，我的意思是，我们可以深入讨论，还有其他公司在做这个。

It's and and, I mean, we can get into there's other companies doing this.

但是，比如对于新云服务商来说，好消息是，除了AI之外，对计算能力的需求也很大。

But, like, for the neoclouds, the good news is is that there's a lot of demand for compute power outside of AI.

所以有一个备选方案。

So there is a fallback.

如果你建好了，他们很可能会来。

If you build it, they will probably come.

但是，他们会像我们现在在AI达到顶峰时所计划的那样大规模地来吗？

But will they come to the extent that we are planning for right now when we are kind of at maximum stage with AI?

而且，再说回投资，还会有定价权吗？

And also, will there be any pricing power as far, again, about an investment?

听起来我说的是，如果你只是建好了，它就放在那里。

It sounds like what I'm talking about is if you just build it, it's out there.

这样商品就开始形成了。

That's how commodities will start getting formed.

所以，你知道，我觉得定价权，我确实认为会有赢家和输家。

So, you know, I I think pricing power so I I I do think there will be winners and losers.

我确实认为你得小心行事，但我不确定我们是否已经为最坏的情况做好了准备，比如每个人都贷款违约，因为我确实认为我能看到现金流。

I do think you have to tread carefully, but I don't know if we are set up for the worst case scenario where just everybody defaults in their loans because I do think I I do think I see cash flow.

我只是不确定我是否能看到利润，作为投资者，在某个时候，除非我只是投资于贷款方，否则我也需要看到利润。

I just don't know if I see profits, which as an investor, at some point, unless I'm just investing in the lenders, I need to see profits as well.

对。

Yeah.

杰森，这周还有一件事，就是英伟达为一些机构债务提供者的大量债务做了担保。

Jason, the other piece that came out this week was NVIDIA back stopping a bunch of debt from a number of institutional providers of debt.

简单来说，他们就是在拆分风险，就像信用违约互换或者抵押贷款证券化那样，有人排第一、第二、第三，而英伟达说，嘿，我们排在最后。

And the way that just in very simple terms, they're kinda cutting up the the risk profile, the way that you do with a credit default swap or with securitizations of mortgages where there's somebody who's first in line, second in line, third in line, and Nvidia is saying, hey, we'll be last in line.

我们会确保你拿回你的钱。

We'll make sure you get your money back.

只要继续买我们的GPU就行。

Just keep buying our GPUs.

看来我们正在进入一个新阶段，有这么多债务，现在连供应商都说，嘿，我们会兜底。

It seems like we're entering a new phase with all this debt and now with even the supplier saying, hey, we'll backstop this.

对。

Yeah.

嗯，我

Well, I

意思是，这已经是个大问号有一阵子了。

mean, that's that's been the big question mark for a while.

对吧？

Right?

这些不同的实体、不同的公司之间相互投资，试图确保彼此的成功，这就是它们之间的关联性。

It's just sort of the interrelatedness of of all of these different entities, these different companies investing in each other to try to ensure each other's success.

但最终的问题是，所有的钱从哪里来？

And and ultimately, it's like, well, where where is all of the money going to come from?

比如在英伟达内部，至少我们知道他们有实际的产品交付。

And and like within NVIDIA, for example, at least we know they have this deliverable.

对吧？

Right?

他们的技术是可以交付的，而且在可预见的未来应该会持续下去。

Their technology is something they can deliver on and and that should continue for the foreseeable future.

但是，你知道，比如那些新云服务商，我觉得最终可能还是需要整合。

But, you know, you know, they look at these these neoclouds for example and think, well, I mean, consolidation I think is ultimately going to have to happen.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，除非你拥有某种差异化优势，否则这似乎真的不太合理。

I mean, it just doesn't seem to make any real sense unless there's some sort of differentiation that you possess.

我的意思是，计算成本会继续下降。

I mean, the cost of compute is gonna continue to come down.

这些负债累累、资本结构有问题的neocloud公司，这些问题会浮出水面。

And these these neoclouds that are that are riddled with debt and have these sort of questionable capital structures, that that's gonna kind of come to the surface.

对吧？

Right?

潮水退去，你就能看到谁在裸泳。

The tide's gonna go out, and you're gonna see who's swimming naked.

所以我怀疑，未来几年这个行业会出现一些整合。

And so my suspicion is we'll see some consolidation in in that sector over the course of the next several years.

我能给你一个积极的宏观视角吗？也许我太乐观了。

Can I and maybe I'm too positive here, but can I give you the positive big macro spin?

我们需要一点积极的东西。

We we need a little positivity.

是的。

Yeah.

因为我的意思是，我们一直在回避的显而易见的问题是，上一次债务压垮整个系统时发生了什么。

Because I mean, again, because because the obvious what we're dancing around is what happened the last time that debt just got overwhelmed the system.

那是2008年。

That was 2008.

我觉得我可以眯着眼睛看到英伟达公开站出来做这件事，这标志着贷方在做尽职调查，也说明英伟达有必要这么做，因为有人在问正确的问题，或者有人意识到了所有这些问题。

I think I can squint and read NVIDIA coming out and doing this publicly as a sign that the lenders are doing their due diligence, that there is a need for NVIDIA to do this because there are people asking the right questions or there are people aware of all of these things.

他们并不是对所有问题都视而不见。

They're not oblivious to all of the issues.

对。

Mhmm.

我看。

I look.

再说，对某些具体的公司来说，结果可能仍然很糟糕，但作为一个只是不想看到2008年重演的人，我确实认为至少有一些迹象表明我们已经从那些错误中吸取了教训，如果是这样的话，那是一件非常好的事情。

Again, it could still turn out terribly for some of the specific companies involved, but as a as someone who just doesn't wanna see a repeat of 2008, I do think there are at least some signs that we have learned from those mistakes, and that's a very good thing if so.

投资者有很多需要考虑的事情，但是，你知道，当我们最终从OpenAI和Anthropic那里得到数据时，那将会很令人兴奋，希望是在今年晚些时候。

Lots for investors to think about, but, you know, it will be exciting when we finally do get the numbers from OpenAI and Anthropic, hopefully, later this year.

我们回来之后，要聊一聊餐饮行业的一些好消息。

When we come back, we're gonna turn to some good news in the restaurant industry.

你正在收听的是 Motley Fool 的隐藏宝石投资节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

你刚发现你的销售团队可能完不成销售指标。

You just found out that your sales team is at risk of missing quota.

别慌。

Don't panic.

直接问 Rippling AI 就行。

Just ask Rippling AI.

因为它基于你的实时人员和业务数据，Rippling AI 可以把 Rippling 和 Salesforce 里的数据整合到一个会议用的仪表盘上，显示销售指标完成情况、人员编制计划，以及各地区的月度收入与销售目标的对比。

Since it's built on your real time people and business data, Rippling AI can pull metrics from Rippling and Salesforce into a meeting ready dashboard showing quota attainment, headcount plan, and monthly revenue to quota by region.

几秒钟之内，你就能清楚看到销售目标风险背后的原因，并在目标落空之前及时解决。

In seconds, you'll see exactly what's behind your quota risk and fix it before it's missed.

问题解决了，行动也采取了，危机化解了。

Question answered, action taken, Crisis averted.

如果你有重要的商业问题需要解答，别只是提交工单然后等上几周拿一份过时的报告。

When you have critical business questions that need answers, don't just file a ticket and wait weeks for an outdated report.

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Describe what you need and have Rippling AI build it instantly from your live people and business data.

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Whether it's a dashboard with detailed charts or automated workflows with the right triggers, conditions, and approvals.

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Ready to rule your business?

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That's rippling.ai/fool.

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Sign up for exclusive access today.

rippling.ai/fool。

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工作中最有效率的人并不是比别人更努力。

The most effective people at work aren't working harder than everyone else.

他们是在更好的系统里更聪明地工作。

They're working smarter inside better systems.

Superhuman GO，来自Grammarly的制造商，是一款AI聊天工具，能在你使用的每个工具中运行，随时待命，并且已经了解你正在做什么。

Superhuman GO from the makers of Grammarly is the AI chat that works inside every tool you already use, always ready and already aware of what you're working on.

它就像一个队友，唯一的任务就是帮助你更好地完成你的工作。

It's a teammate whose only job is to help you be better at yours.

有了GOO的协助，你可以尽情展示你的最佳才能。

With GOO working with you, you can show off what you do best.

去superhuman.com看看Superhuman GOO能做什么。

See what Superhuman GOO can do at superhuman.com.

网址是superhuman.com。

That's superhuman.com.

欢迎回到Motley Fool的隐藏宝石投资节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

这周我们确实收到了Kava一份有趣的财报。

We did get an interesting earnings report this week from Kava.

很遗憾，我这边还是没有Kava。

I'm I'm sad to say we still don't have Kava where I'm at.

我听你们说了很多关于棉花的好话。

I hear such good things from you guys about cotton from

这就是机会，J Mo。

That's the opportunity, J Mo.

没错。

That's it.

那正是中西部的情况。

That's Come exactly Midwest.

但是，Jason，他们的数据相当不错。

To But, Jason, they had some pretty good numbers.

客流量上升了。

Traffic was up.

每张票的消费额也上升了。

Spending per ticket was up.

餐饮行业一直面临很多困难。

There's been a lot of struggles in the restaurant industry.

那么，这是否至少算是一线希望，表明至少在某些领域情况正在好转？

So is this at least sort of a green shoot that maybe things at least in certain pockets are getting a little better?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得在一定程度上是这样。

I I think so to a degree.

我的意思是，现在餐饮业显然非常艰难。

I mean, there there are I mean, the restaurant business right now is obviously very difficult.

我们开始看到传统快餐和休闲快餐之间的界限变得模糊。

We're starting to see the lines blur between traditional fast food, right, and fast casual.

传统快餐的菜单价格真的开始攀升了。

I mean, the menu prices for traditional fast food are really starting to creep up there.

我的意思是，你可能会从麦当劳或汉堡王之类的店买个超值套餐，也许吧。

I mean, you're going to get like a value meal from one of these McDonald's or Burger, whatever, maybe.

问题是，它已经不再便宜了。

That's just it it it it's not cheap anymore.

所以我觉得休闲快餐餐厅在这里有一点机会，至少在价格上能保持接近，同时提供更好的——嗯——

And so I think the fast casual restaurants have a little bit of an opportunity right there to sort of keep keep close at least in regard to pricing while offering a Mhmm.

更高质量的餐食。

A higher quality, meal.

对吧？

Right?

所以Cava确实和Chipotle很像。

And so Cava really rhymes with Chipotle.

我觉得，我的意思是，这个季度表现不错。

I think I mean, it was a good quarter.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，收入增长了31%以上。

I mean, the revenue up 31 plus percent.

这一增长主要得益于同店销售额9%的增长。

That growth was fueled by a 9% increase in comps.

他们新开了17家门店。

They opened 17 new stores.

正如你提到的，客流量增长超过了5%。

They are seeing, as you mentioned, traffic up that was better than 5%.

我还发现一个有趣的数据点，就是他们的单店平均业绩。

Another interesting data point that I found regarding the quarter, they they saw their average unit volume.

对吧？

Right?

他们的单店平均年营收现在突破了300万美元。

The the the average unit volume for their restaurants now hit they cracked $3,000,000 per year.

对吧？

Right?

这比之前大约280万到290万的水平略有增长，不过现在跟Chipotle持平了。

And that's that's up modestly from around 2.8, 2,900,000 recently, but that is on par with Chipotle now.

对。

Now Yeah.

我觉得这里有个需要注意的地方，就是Cabba的门店数量比起Chipotle来说少得多。

I think the caveat there is that we need to recognize the fact that Cabba only has a handful of stores compared to a Chipotle.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，Cava大概有350家店，而Chipotle有4200家。

I mean, there's something like 350 Cabas versus 4,200 Chipotles.

我觉得从长远来看，这其实是个机会。

Now that is, I think at the end of the day, an opportunity.

你提到在明尼苏达州还没有Cava的店，至少在你住的地方没有。

You mentioned you don't have them out there in Minnesota yet, at least, where you live.

所以也许他们还有很大的增长空间。毕竟作为消费者，我想Lou也会同意，我们确实挺喜欢Cava提供的产品。

And so maybe there is a nice runway of growth because I mean, as a consumer, and I think Lou would agree, we we do like what Cava has to offer.

你知道，这个确实很伤钱包，而且我觉得这种情况可能还能持续一段时间。

It's, you know, terribly hard on the wallet, and, it it is something that I think, could continue to grow for for some time.

Lou，这算不算是那种

Lou, is this one of

就是大家开始吃得更健康一点，可能麦当劳就没那么好了？

those things where people are just eating a little bit healthier, maybe McDonald's not doing quite as well?

我知道我买了Portillo's的股票。

I know I own shares of Portillo's.

那股票表现不太好，因为那些牛肉三明治现在看来确实不如沙拉碗受欢迎了。

That's not doing particularly well because those beef sandwiches apparently are falling out of favor to a salad bowl at this point.

沙拉听起来不错。

Salad sounds good.

你看啊。

Look.

我算是有点偏见吧，不过我是说，我也说不好。

I'm biased here, but I I mean, I I don't know.

我觉得Cava能赢是因为他们管理得好，产品也好，而且，你看，现在才刚开始。

I think Cava is winning because they're well managed and they have a good product, and, look, it's it's early.

这些增长故事不会永远持续，但我确实觉得，你知道，这提醒我们领导力和概念很重要，不是所有餐厅都一样，就像你说的，Travis。

These growth stories don't last forever, but I do think, you know, it's a reminder that leadership matters and concept matters, that not all restaurants are the same, to your point, Travis.

还有一件事，我不想，你知道，打击任何大的说法，但咱们能不能别再说什么GLP-1要毁掉餐厅这种话了？

The other thing and I know I don't wanna, like, you know, stomp on any, you know, just big narratives, but can we get over this GLP one is killing restaurants narratives?

我相信GLP-1类药物。

I I believe in GLP ones.

我相信那个。

I believe in that.

但你可能得做很多临床试验才能搞清楚为什么它没能阻止我们想吃地中海菜，我猜。

But you're gonna have to do runs of clinical trials to figure out why it doesn't stop us from craving Mediterranean, I guess.

我确实觉得这被夸大了。

I do think that it's overstated.

我觉得餐厅现在的情况有一部分是宏观因素。

I think what's going on with restaurants is a little bit of macro.

有点过度饱和了。

It's a little bit of oversaturation.

也许有一点GLP-1的影响。

Maybe it's a little bit of GLP ones.

但今年早些时候，当所有这些餐饮股都在挣扎时，人们就说GLP-1让所有人都不吃饭了。

But earlier in the year when we had all of these restaurant stocks that were struggling, it was just GLP one is stopping everyone from eating.

我觉得这就是那种叙事压过证据的情况，而我们从Cabo学到的是，好的餐厅仍然能赢。

I think that that is one of those just kind of the narrative overwhelms the evidence things, and I think good restaurants can still win is what we learned from Cabo.

Lou，你觉得定价压力会不会成为一个挑战，比如人们把钱花到别处？

Lou, do you think that pricing pressure is gonna be a challenge, whether it's on people spending money elsewhere?

我的意思是，他们还是会花钱，但杂货成本上涨的速度仍然比工资快，能源价格也是如此。

I mean, they're gonna spend grocery costs are still going up faster than wages are, same thing with energy prices at this point.

如果你是餐饮投资者，这是不是至少需要担心一点的事情？

Is that something to at least worry about a little bit if you're a restaurant investor?

当然。

Sure.

而且我觉得这总是两方面的问题，一方面是他们的成本，另一方面是消费者能不能负担得起。

And I think it it always is on both sides, their cost and whether or not consumers can afford it.

再说，一个经营良好的公司能够度过低迷期，但考虑到宏观环境，我不会去预测下个季度的盈利。

Again, a well run company can get through a downturn, but it might it I I I'm not gonna predict earnings next quarter given what's going on in the macro.

看看餐饮业会有什么变化，会很有趣。

It will be interesting to see what happens with restaurants.

一直是我想要多投资一点的领域，但是

Always an area that I would like to invest more, but

这确实是个

it's such

很难做的行业。

a tough space.

所以别天天想着开一家新的Chipotle。

So don't don't fend a new Chipotle every day.

我们回来之后，要去看看体育特许经营权。

When we come back, we are gonna go shopping for sports franchises.

你正在收听Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

欢迎回到Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

在这个环节，我们喜欢在投资中找点乐趣。

We like to have a little bit of fun in this segment with investing.

这周有消息说，迪士尼前CEO鲍勃·艾格和运营Thrive Capital的乔什·库什纳——这家风投公司过去十年左右是最成功的之一——正在以大约125亿美元收购洛杉矶湖人队。

And this week with the news that Bob Iger, former CEO of Disney, and Josh Kushner, who runs Thrive Capital, one of the most successful venture capital firms over the past decade or so, are buying the Los Angeles Lakers for somewhere around $12,500,000,000.

好吧，朋友之间也就差个几十亿吧？

Well, it's a few billion dollars between friends?

但这让我想到，如果你要投资一支体育球队，而且纯粹是为了投资目的，不是因为你特别喜欢那支球队，你会买什么？

But that got me thinking, if you were going to invest in a sports franchise and you were doing this just for investment purposes, not because you necessarily love that specific team, what would you be buying?

市场上有很多选择，但现在的价格已经相当疯狂了，虽然它们一直都很高。

There's a lot of options out there, but the prices are getting pretty crazy at this point, not that they always haven't been very high.

杰森，我想先从NFL开始聊。

Jason, I wanna start with the NFL.

如果我们去买NFL球队，你是选便宜的，还是愿意为大球队付高价？

If we're going shopping for NFL teams, are you going bargain basement, or you willing to pay up for one of the big franchises?

天啊，你知道吗，看这个有很多不同的角度。

Man, you know, there are so many different ways to look at this.

你知道吗，我快速搜了一下，光看数字，达拉斯牛仔队历史上整体投资回报率最高。

You know, I did a a quick search, and it it just by the numbers, you look at the Dallas Cowboys, they're the highest overall return on investment historically.

我记得杰瑞·琼斯在1989年花了大约一点四亿美元买下这支球队，现在球队价值估计接近160亿美元。

I think Jerry Jones bought them in 1989 for something like $140,000,000 and the team is now, I think, valued close to $16,000,000,000.

所以，说实话，我有点怀疑那里还能榨出多少油水，特别是考虑到这支球队这些年来一直不太成功，至少在过去几十年里。

So I kind of wonder if maybe I'm not sure how much juice there is left to squeeze there, to be honest with you, particularly given the team's lack of success through the years, at least over the past, you know, couple of decades.

也许，你知道的，我可能代表本地人的立场——我在弗吉尼亚，所以可能会说我想选乌鸦队或指挥官队，但对我来说，他们永远是红皮队。

Probably, you know, I could I could I could be a local here in in, Virginia and say I'd wanna go with someone like the Ravens or the Commanders or they'll they'll always be the Redskins to me.

但我是在弗吉尼亚长大的，特拉维斯。

But I grew up in South Carolina, Travis.

所以我肯定选卡罗来纳黑豹队，因为我觉得卡罗莱纳区橄榄球真的很受欢迎。

So I'm going to go with the Carolina Panthers because I think football in in The Carolinas is is beloved.

对吧？

Right?

那里靠近SEC赛区，但你也受益于两个州，北卡罗来纳和南卡罗来纳。

You're getting down there in SEC country, but you're also benefiting from two states, North Carolina and South Carolina.

这两个州都很喜欢黑豹队。

They both love the Panthers.

所以我觉得那里有巨大的机会。

So I think you just have a tremendous opportunity there.

我觉得这支球队的估值还算合理。

The team I think is still somewhat reasonably valued.

现在大概是80亿美元。

It's like $8,000,000,000 today.

我觉得机会多得很。

I I think there's I think there's plenty of opportunities.

我选卡罗来纳黑豹队，你问的是谁当CEO吧。

I'm going Carolina Panthers, and you're asking about who you want as CEO.

对。

Yeah.

我也想要一个CEO。

I I also want a CEO.

谁在负责运营？

Who's running this operation?

嗯，我喜欢看大学橄榄球和NFL比赛。

Well, I love I love watching football college, NFL.

太棒了。

It's great.

又到了一年中的这个时候了。

We're getting to that time of year.

我很兴奋。

I'm excited.

我就是这个大家伙的CEO。

I'm the CEO of this bad boy.

哇。

Wow.

我

I

我是说，我很想做类似的事情。

mean, I would love to do something like that.

那太棒了。

That would be awesome.

好。

Alright.

有意思的是，这就像是市场的两面。

Fascinating about this is that this is like the two sides of a market.

因为 J Mo 和我有相似的生活经历，也都见过北方和南方，但我们却得出了相反的结论。

Because J Mo and I have similar kinda life experiences and same kinda seeing the North, seeing the South, and we have jumped to opposite conclusions.

有一件事让我印象很深，我以前住在北方，经常听到 NFL 球迷嘲笑南方的球队。

One thing that really struck me, I used to live in the North and I would hear NFL fans make fun of, franchises in the South.

他们就是觉得南方人不喜欢橄榄球，因为猎鹰队的比赛都没什么人看。

Well, they just don't like football because the falcons games are empty or whatever.

而在南方，大学球迷又会嘲笑北方的大学球队。

And down in the South, it's and college fans make fun of college teams up north.

比如你看，北方人好像不爱橄榄球，因为罗格斯大学队根本拉不动观众。

Like, you see, they don't like football up there because Rutgers doesn't draw.

再看看佐治亚。

And look at Georgia.

所以我就说，我也搞不懂。

So like, I I I don't know.

根据我的经验，在东南部，NFL球队永远别想当老大。

It my life experience is you are never going to be the big dog in the Southeast if you're an NFL team.

所以如果谈NFL，我肯定选北方。

So if we're talking NFL, I'm heading for the North.

绿湾就是个典型答案。

Green Bay is the stereotype answer.