人工智能能否成为大型零售商的解药？

零售业的盈利困境还在继续。

The woes of retail earnings continue.

Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资现在开始。

Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.

欢迎来到 Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资节目。

Welcome to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

我是主持人克劳。

I'm your host, Crowe.

今天和我一起的是长期为 Fool 撰稿的 Jon Quast 和 Matt Frankel。

And today, I'm joined by long time Fool contributors, Jon Quast and Matt Frankel.

今天我们要聊的是无人机配送，这在 DoorDash 和 Uber 这些公司里正成为一个热门话题。

So today on the docket, we're gonna talk about drone delivery, which is becoming a big topic in the in the DoorDash and the Ubers of the world.

最近这个市场也发生了很多交易。

And there's been a lot of deals going on in that market lately.

节目最后我们还会回答一些听众的问题。

And we're also gonna hit some reader questions at the end of our show.

不过在我们开始之前，现在还是财报季，这周很多大型零售商都发布了财报。

But as we're getting started, we're still in earnings season, and a lot of the big box retailers have been reporting this week.

到目前为止我们已经看到了一些。

We've had a sprinkling of them so far.

家得宝是周二发布的。

Home Depot was on Tuesday.

我们讨论过了，周三的节目里也聊了塔吉特昨天的财报，但沃尔玛、劳氏和TJX公司（就是TJ Maxx的母公司）的情况还有更多内容。

We discussed that, And the the Wednesday crew talked about Target's earnings yesterday, but we got a little bit more of a story with Walmart, Lowe's, and TJX companies, the parent company of TJ Maxx.

他们都是在今天早些时候或者昨天收盘后发布的。

They all reported earlier today or after the close yesterday.

各位，这里有很多要聊的，但马特，你看到的一些数据是什么？你看到这些数据时有什么想法？

Guys, a lot of stuff to cover here, but Matt, what were what were some of the numbers that you saw and what were some of the reactions that you thought of when you you looked at these numbers?

嗯，我觉得最大的问题是，这些头条数据很有误导性。

Well, I mean, the the big thing is that the the headline numbers are deceiving.

关税退款，几乎每家零售商都拿到了，这让底线数字看起来比实际要好一些。

Tariff refunds, pretty much every retailer got them, and it made the bottom line numbers look a little better than they should have.

市场也知道这一点。

And the market knows that.

市场并没有因此给予奖励，但这点我们稍后再谈。

The market's not rewarding it by any means, but we'll get to that.

第二季度整体表现强劲，这是一个共同的主题。

There there was a common theme of general strength for the second quarter.

比如家得宝，报告了自2022年第三季度以来最强的同店销售数据。

Home Depot, for example, reported its strongest comp sales number since, you know, the third quarter of twenty twenty two.

塔吉特正在转型中，同店销售增长了约3.8%，这是一个不错的进步。

Target, which is in the process of a turnaround reported comp sales in the 3.8% ballpark, a nice improvement.

TJX公司超出了预期并上调了指引，同店增长4%，值得一提的是，通胀率大约在3%左右。

TJX, they beat and raised 4% comp growth, it's worth mentioning that, you know, inflation's running around 3%.

所以这是实际增长，超过了通胀率。

So this was actual real growth ahead of the inflation rate.

这看起来很不错。

So that's nice to see.

沃尔玛的表现令人失望，在这里算是个例外。

Walmart was the disappointment and kind of an outlier here.

同店销售额增长了2.6%。

Comps were 2.6%.

他们略低于预期。

They fell a little short of expectations.

我甚至不确定他们是否跑赢了通胀，他们的第三季度指引也是如此。

I'm not even sure they beat inflation as did their their third quarter guidance.

这让人失望。

That was a disappointment.

这让我有点意外。

And this was somewhat of a surprise to me.

我的意思是，我本以为在消费者支出不确定的时候，沃尔玛会更有韧性。

I mean, I expected Walmart to be a little more resilient in times of uncertain consumer spending.

要知道，2008年沃尔玛是标普500中表现最好的股票。

I mean, 2008, Walmart was the best performing stock in the S and P.

那是因为人们需要削减开支，而且东西很贵。

And it was because of people needed to cut back and things were expensive.

在我看来，沃尔玛是所有零售商中最重要的一个。

Walmart is the most important of all of these retailers in my opinion.

它能反映出中低收入家庭的情况。

It gives a read on low to middle income households.

而这正是我现在对经济最大的担忧。

And and that's really my biggest worry in the economy right now.

不是看顶层的人过得怎么样，而是看中间阶层的人过得怎么样。

It's not how the people at the top are doing, it's how the people in the middle are doing.

而沃尔玛在这方面确实是个很好的指标。

And and Walmart is really a good indicator there.

所以Jon，这其实引出了一个有趣的点，因为沃尔玛的营收增长有点慢，但过去几个季度甚至过去两年里，沃尔玛一个很常见的主题是，盈利增长远远超过了营收增长。

So Jon, this is actually kind of brings up an interesting point here though because revenue numbers were a little slow at Walmart, but one theme that has been pretty common at Walmart over the past several quarters or even even last couple of years is that earnings have been very much outpacing revenue growth.

这到底是怎么回事？

What's been going on here?

因为我一想到沃尔玛，我想到的不是一个靠提价来增加利润的零售商。

Because when I think about Walmart, I don't think of a retailer that's pushing price to increase margins.

对，我先说说马特提到的那个营收数字，因为那是零售企业里比较令人失望的一个数字。

Yeah, let me start with that revenue number that Matt was talking about, because it was kind of the more disappointing number among the retail players.

有意思的是，所有这些零售商都在谈论关税退款。

It is interesting that all these retailers talking about the tariff refund.

所以，当然，你知道，所有加在他们身上的关税都被取消了，政府不得不把钱退给他们。像劳氏这样的公司，比如说，提到它的竞争对手在收到这笔退款后，倾向于降低价格，而劳氏却说，嘿，我们其实打算维持这些价格不变。

So of course, you know, all these tariffs that were levied upon them, those have been annulled, the government had to give them back and companies like Lowe's for example, mentioning that its competitors in light of receiving that check kind of leaning into lower prices, whereas Lowe's saying, hey, we're just gonna actually maintain those prices.

沃尔玛则有点处于这个光谱的另一端，嘿，让我们利用这次关税来进一步提高价格竞争力，这确实是沃尔玛的一贯做法，我们是低价领导者。

Walmart is kind of on that spectrum of, hey, let's use this tariff to be more competitive on price yet again, and that is really Walmart's MO, we are the low price leader.

所以，他们不用这些关税来弥补其他开支，而是说，嘿，我们实际上要用这个来打价格战。

So not using those tariffs and kind of just dropping it down to cover other expenses saying, hey, we're actually gonna use this to compete on price.

所以，这可能就是营收数字有点平淡的原因之一，如果其他竞争对手都在说，嘿，我们不会降价，我们会保持价格不变。

So maybe that's contributing to the little bit of a lackluster revenue number, if other competitors are kind of saying, hey, we're not gonna lower prices, we're gonna keep them where they are.

现在回到你关于盈利能力的问题，这其实非常重要，也是我认为沃尔玛在过去几年里一直表现良好的股票的原因。

Now to your question about the profitability, this is actually pretty important here and why Walmart has been a good performing stock in my opinion over the last few years.

营业收入增长比收入增长快。

Operating income growing faster than revenue.

收入是个位数下降，但营业收入是两位数增长，这种情况不太常见，而且对于这么大的一家公司来说，这很重要。

So revenue down in the single digits, operating income growth in the double digits, that is a little bit unusual to see and it's a big deal when you're talking about a company of this magnitude.

当你在谈论一家收入数千亿美元的公司时，即使利润率只差一个百分点，对净利润的影响也很大。

When you're talking about a company with hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue, even just a single percentage difference in that profitability, I mean, that makes a big deal on the bottom line.

所以沃尔玛一直在增加数字产品，销售数字产品，它现在是一家数字业务公司。

So Walmart has been increasingly offering digital products, it's been selling digital things, it's a digital business.

你看广告业务，它拥有非常棒的消费者行为和数据的自有数据集。

So you look at advertising, I mean, it has a wonderful first party dataset of consumer behavior and data.

这可以用来做广告，而广告是高利润业务。

This is something that it can use in advertising and that's a high margin business.

当然，它收购了Vizio，这样它也有了联网电视平台，并将其整合到生态系统中。

Of course, it acquired Vizio so that it can have this connected TV platform as well and integrate that into the ecosystem.

还有Walmart Plus，电商和Walmart Plus，这些也是数字产品，它们确实有助于提高利润率，而且沃尔玛在过去几年里一直执行得非常好。

Also Walmart Plus, I mean, e commerce and Walmart Plus, these are digital offerings as well that do help that profitability and Walmart's been executing this playbook really, really well over the last several years.

这显然很有效，因为就像你说的，沃尔玛的盈利能力表现非常好。

It's obviously working, because like you said, the profitability at Walmart's doing incredibly well.

但正如马特所说，沃尔玛稍微慢一些的地方，我们可能可以归因于这一点，而且正如马特所说，中低收入群体往往是沃尔玛的顾客。

But to Matt's point, where Walmart's a little bit slower, one of the things that we could possibly attribute this to, and to Matt's point, the lower to middle income bracket tends to be the Walmart shopper.

我们看到燃油价格大幅上涨。

We have seen a pretty large increase in fuel prices.

我们不是说这占用了所有人的可自由支配支出，但这确实是一个非常强烈的价格信号，表明人们愿意做什么。

Now, we're not gonna say that this took up everybody's discretionary spending, but it does tend to be a very large price signal for what people are willing to do.

油价开始上涨，也许人们会减少一些可自由支配的消费项目，仅仅因为看到这个信号，觉得可能情况会变得更有挑战性。

Gas prices start to go up, maybe people you know, maybe to make a fewer discretionary spend items just simply because like seeing that as like a signal of, oh, maybe things are gonna get a little bit more challenging.

这些在数字上体现出来了吗？

Is that showing up in the numbers here?

嗯，至少肯定体现在了管理层的评论中，因为关键问题是，你会不会把关税退款转嫁给消费者，转嫁给你的客户？

Well, it's at least showing up in management commentary for sure, because the kind of the thing was, are you going to pass through this tariff refund onto the consumer, onto your customers?

其中几家公司表示不会直接转嫁，因为实际上我们的成本已经大幅上升了。

And several of these companies kinda saying no, not directly because actually our costs have risen pretty substantially.

所以我们会用那笔关税退款来抵消我们正在经历的更高成本，这样对我们的客户也有好处。

So we're gonna take that tariff refund to offset the higher costs that we're experiencing and in that way it's gonna benefit our customers.

但我当时觉得这有点，怎么说呢，措辞挺巧妙的，不过我还真去查了一下。

But I kind of thought that that was a little bit of, let's just say creative language, but I did look it up.

根据AAA的数据，过去一年汽油价格上涨了31%，但柴油价格，这对这些零售商来说很关键，柴油价格过去一年上涨了50%。

According to AAA, gas prices up 31% in the last year, but diesel prices, and this is, let's say material to these retailers, diesel prices up 50% over the last year.

所以零售商确实面临实实在在的成本增加。

So there is a real cost increase here to the retailers.

我理解他们为什么说，我们实际上要用这笔关税来抵消一部分更高的成本。

I get why they're saying, hey, we're actually gonna use this tariff to offset some of those higher costs.

所以这是真实存在的，而且另一方面，这不仅让零售商支出更多，正如你指出的，也增加了消费者的负担，所以可用于非必需消费的钱就少了。

So it is real and then the other side of that coin, not only is it costing the retailers more in expenses, but as you point out, that's also costing consumers and so there is less spend available for discretionary purchases.

你只能更专注于买那些必需品。

You gotta kinda just double down on the things that you need.

趁我们快结束的时候，我再问最后一个问题，因为我觉得现在零售业最热门的话题，或者说大家最常讨论的，就是智能体AI，以及把它用在智能体商务上，比如让它们帮顾客做非必需消费的决策之类的。

One last question as we're getting out of here because I feel like the sexy thing in retail these days or the most popular thing that people are talking about is like agentic AI and using them as agentic commerce, You know, customers using them to make discretionary purchases for them or things like that.

而且我个人从投资的角度来看，我确实能看到这在企业对企业交易中的应用。

And I From a personal, like, thinking about it at an investing standpoint, I can certainly see that from like a business to business sort of transaction.

那种情况更多是流程性的，你知道，就是购买你需要的。

That's much more process, you know, purchase what you need.

但从消费者支出的角度来看，我很难理解这怎么运作。

But from a consumer spend standpoint, I'm struggling to see how that works.

现在显然有很多数字公司在做这个。

Now obviously there's a lot of digital companies doing it.

亚马逊在做，Shopify也在做。

Amazon's doing it, Shopify is doing it.

大型零售商也这么深入参与了吗？他们看到成果了吗？还是说这仍然处于一个——我不想说早期阶段。

Are the big box retailers diving into this as much, and are they seeing the results of this, or is this still very much a I don't wanna say early innings.

我们称之为投手还在热身的那种阶段。

We'll call it the pitcher still warming up sort of phase.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，沃尔玛已经有一个智能购物应用了。

I mean, Walmart already has an agentic shopping app.

我记得叫Sparky。

I think it's called Sparky.

亚马逊也有一个。

Amazon has one too.

它不是大型零售商，但你知道，是线上零售。

It's not a big box, but you know, online retail.

这里有两方面的情况。

There there's two sides of the story here.

一方面是发现商品，另一方面是实际购买。

There's discovery and there's actual purchases.

我读过一项研究，说大约60%的消费者使用智能AI应用来发现商品，也就是比较产品、研究产品、看看自己需要什么。

And and one study I read said about 60% of consumers are using agentic AI apps for discovery, meaning comparing products, researching products, seeing what they need.

但说到通过智能AI或AI代理实际完成购买，这个比例就低很多了，大概在百分之十几，有些情况下甚至只有个位数百分比的顾客会真正使用它。

But when it comes to actually completing a purchase through an agentic AI, or an AI agent, it's in, we're in the low teens to, you know, in some cases, the high single digit percentages of customers are actually using it.

真正的问题在于信任。

The real issue is, is trust.

不是技术的问题。

It's not the tech.

技术已经成熟了。

The tech is there.

你知道，怎么设置消费上限？

You know, how do you set spending caps?

如果你的智能代理买了你不想要的东西怎么办？

What happens if your agent buys something you don't want?

取消那个操作有多容易？

How easy is it to cancel that?

你能马上撤销交易吗？

Can you instantly, you know, reverse the transaction?

还是说，你得做我最讨厌的网购环节——收到包裹、办理退货、再送到联邦快递门店？

Or do you have to do what my least favorite part of online shopping and get the package, process a return, bring it to your FedEx store?

所以你看，这其实是个信任问题。

You know, so it's a trust issue.

智能体购物目前主要适用于重复购买或者那些你不太需要思考的东西。

AGENTIC shopping is working mostly for repeat purchases or things you don't really have to consider.

比如说订阅产品、日用品，你知道，一个智能体可以每隔几周帮我重新下单洗衣液。

Say like, you know, subscription products, groceries, you know, an agent could reorder my laundry detergent once every couple weeks.

这就是它目前能发挥作用的地方。

That's where it's working.

没有人会用智能体说，好，帮我挑个沙发然后买下来。

No one's using an agent to say, okay, pick a couch for me and buy it.

所以这真的是个大信任因素，就是说，如果我不想要，我有没有一个简单的流程来否决这个购买？

So that's really the big trust factor in the, you know, do I have like the an easy process to veto the purchase if I don't want it?

但我的意思是，他们确实在用。

But I mean, it's they're definitely using it.

确实在加速发展，但你需要更好的数据来让这些运作起来，而且你需要消费者信任它们才能获得更好的数据。

It's definitely ramping up, but you need better data to make these work and you need consumers to trust them to get the better data.

所以这有点像先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题。

So it's kind of like a what happens first scenario.

对。

Yeah.

正如马特指出的，在最近一个季度，AI 对大型零售商来说确实是一个重要主题，沃尔玛在推 Sparky，劳氏在推 Milo，家得宝在推我的围裙。

As Matt points out, AI actually was a pretty major theme here for the big box retailers in the most recent quarter and Walmart highlighting Sparky, Lowe's highlighting Milo, Home Depot highlighting my apron.

所以大家都在谈论这个。

So they're all talking about it.

我觉得有点俗气，但你知道，真正在 AI 上发力的一家公司是塔吉特。

I think it's a little cheesy, but, you know, the one company that is really leaning into AI here is Target.

而且塔吉特真的聘请了一位首席 AI 官，我觉得这真的很有意思。

And Target actually hiring a chief AI officer, I think that that is a really interesting thing.

我觉得这甚至可能是必要的，开始协调整个公司的 AI 愿景，确保我们都在朝着同一个方向努力。

I think maybe even needed to start to coordinate AI visions across the company and make sure that we're we're all pulling in the same direction.

在 AI 方面，我们都有相同的目标，但你知道，塔吉特真的在深入你所说的那种代理式 AI，泰勒。

We all kinda have the same goals here when it comes to AI, but, you know, Target really leaning into what you're talking about, Tyler, this agentic AI.

而且这里不仅仅是像马特说的那样用AI来做发现，你还能在应用内完成购买，塔吉特在这方面真的很投入，谷歌和OpenAI都是合作伙伴。

And this is where not only are you using the AI as Matt points out for discovery, but you're completing the purchase within an app and Target really leaning into this, both Google and OpenAI are partners here.

所以用谷歌的话，基本上你在谷歌AI助手里搜索的时候，就能直接完成购买。

So with with Google, the way that you do it, basically, you're able to complete that purchase as you search through the the Google AI assistance.

用ChatGPT的话，情况有点不同。

With ChatGPT, it's a little bit different.

塔吉特在OpenAI内部建了自己的应用，但不管怎样，你都能在那个系统里完成购买。

Target builds its own app within OpenAI, But either way, you can complete a purchase in that system.

塔吉特强调，它的代理式AI增长速度是行业平均水平的三倍半。

Target highlighting that it's agentic AI growing three and a half times the industry average.

当然，基数还小，但这可能值得关注，也可能你会看到其他玩家越来越多地采用，或者这可能是塔吉特在某种程度上走在前头，拥抱一种新的购物方式，这可能成为一股顺风。

Obviously, of a small base, but still, that might be something to watch and might be something that you see increasingly from the other players, or it might be something that Target is getting out in front here a little bit and leaning into a new way of shopping, and it could be a tailwind.

我们可能看到了一些早期的采用，但我的一个看法是，他们用的这些名字，真的有点像是九十年代微软Word里的那个回形针助手的感觉。

We could be see seeing some early uptake here, but my one takeaway is the names that they're using are really giving off some, like, clippy vibes from Microsoft Word back in the nineteen nineties.

我真的希望他们能起一些更好的名字。

I really hope that they get some some better names here.

广告之后，我们来聊聊自主配送市场。

Coming up after the break, we're gonna dip into the autonomous delivery market.

虽然现在是财报季，但我们想换个话题，因为自主无人机配送行业最近有些动静。

So even though we're in our earnings season, we wanted to switch it up a little bit here because there's been a little bit of movement in the autonomous drone delivery industry.

具体来说，本周早些时候，优步与自主无人机配送公司Zipline合作，并投资了一家私营初创公司。

Specifically earlier this week, Uber partnered with autonomous drone delivery company Zipline and made an investment in a private startup company.

我记得最近几轮融资下来，这家公司现在的估值大概有70亿美元。

I think the most recent funding rounds has them as like a $7,000,000,000 company today.

乔恩，今天早上你在策划会上提了这个话题，所以我们可以深入聊聊自主配送。

Now, Jon, you brought this one to the planning meeting this morning so we could dive a little bit more into autonomous delivery.

可能很多人是第一次听说Zipline这家公司。

And this may be the first time that people are hearing about the company Zipline.

那你能给我们简单介绍一下Zipline是做什么的，以及和优步的合作大概是什么情况吗？

So can you give us the skinny on what Zipline does and what this Uber deal is kind of look like?

好的。

Yeah.

有些人可能听说过Zipline，因为它之前和Chipotle Mexican Grill有过合作，但我之所以喜欢这家公司，是因为它在卢旺达所做的工作。

Some people maybe have heard of Zipline because it did have a limited partnership with Chipotle Mexican Grill, but I became enamored with this company because of the work that it's been doing in the country of Rwanda.

它确实通过自己的努力拯救了成千上万的生命。

It has literally been able to save thousands of lives because of what it's doing.

这可不是夸张。

And that's not exaggeration.

你看卢旺达那些偏远的地方，有些生命其实只需要简单的输血就能救回来，但那些诊所，那些偏远的诊所，可能连电都没有。

When you look at some of these remote places in Rwanda, some lives could be saved with a simple blood transfusion, but those clinics, those remote clinics don't maybe even don't even have electricity.

所以他们缺乏必要的设施，无法储存足够的血液来进行这种简单的医疗操作。

And so they're not, they don't have the infrastructure they need to keep enough blood on hand to perform this simple medical procedure.

而在首都这样的大城市是有基础设施的，而Zipline正是做到了这一点。

Now there is infrastructure in a bigger city such as the capital, and really that's what Zipline's been able to do.

只要偏远诊所有需求，它就能把需要的血液装上无人机，飞过去，来回能飞超过100英里，把血液送到。

It's been able to, as soon as there's a need in a remote clinic, it's able to get the blood that it needs onto a drone, send that way out and it can do over a 100 miles round trip and get it delivered.

我上次了解的时候，它还是用降落伞来投递的，但这对这样的社会来说真的是一个巨大的帮助，因为在那里，无论是配送基础设施还是现场储存血液，都是不可能的。

Now, last I checked, it was using parachutes to kinda just drop it off, but it's a real, real benefit to a society like this where delivery infrastructure or even just storing blood on-site is just not possible.

所以，在我看来，这家公司真的很酷，在世界上做了很多了不起的事情。

And so, really cool company doing some great things in the world in my opinion.

但现在，它其实是在努力寻找客户，找到一个应用场景来建立概念验证，而Zipline的目标就是和Uber合作实现的这个目标。

But now really trying to, I mean, it was trying to basically find customers, find a use case to kind of build out proof of concept, but Zipline's goal has been what it's partnering with Uber here to do.

所以Uber将允许许多城市的顾客在Uber Eats下单时选择无人机配送。

And so Uber is going to allow customers in many cities to be able to choose drone delivery for a Uber Eats order.

有趣的是，餐厅接到订单后，可以在停车场放一个小垫子，把食物放在那里，然后Zipline的无人机会从枢纽飞到餐厅，用绳索放下一个篮子，这就是它名字的由来，Zipline。

Now, what's interesting here is that basically a restaurant is going to be able to receive an order, kind of put out a little pad out in their parking lot, they can put the food there and the Zipline drone will fly from a hub to the restaurant, lower a basket on a tether, and that's where it gets its name, Zipline.

它会放下篮子，把食物装进去，然后送到下单的顾客家里，再用绳索把篮子放下来，打开，放在那里，然后飞回枢纽，充电，等待下一个订单。

It's gonna lower that down, scoop it up, take it to the home that ordered it, then lower that basket down again with the Zipline and open it up, leave it there, and fly back to the hub, get recharged, and wait for its next order.

所以这是一种挺有意思的方式，我觉得它可能会流行起来。

So kind of an interesting way to do this and I could see it taken off.

对。

Yeah.

其实，Zipline已经有一些重要的合作伙伴了。

I mean, Zipline already has some major partners.

虽然现在还处于商业化的早期阶段，但它已经和沃尔玛、以及像帕纳拉和奇波特尔这样的餐饮公司建立了合作关系。

It's still in the very early stages of actually monetizing the business, but it has partnerships with with Walmart, with restaurant companies like Panera, like Chipotle.

这家公司的目标是到2029年底，每天完成100万次无人机配送。

The company's targeting 1,000,000 drone deliveries daily by the end of twenty twenty nine.

听起来挺有野心的，但有这些合作伙伴在，订单量肯定是不愁的。

That sounds pretty ambitious, but with those partners, the order flow is definitely there.

我很好奇这背后的经济账，也许乔恩比我更了解。

I'm curious about the economics and maybe Jon knows more about this than I do.

但你知道，到目前为止，无人机配送对实际运营的公司来说都是亏钱的，包括亚马逊。

But what, you know, drone delivery so far has been a money loser for companies who have actually used it in the real world, including Amazon.

我读到过，亚马逊平均每次无人机配送的成本大概在30到40美元。

You know, I I read that the average Amazon drone delivery costs the company like 30 to $40.

但规模大了之后，能不能改善到经济上划算的程度，每天做100万次无人机配送还能盈利，而不用把每次30美元或更高的成本转嫁给顾客呢？

But at scale, could it have improved to the point where it makes economic sense to do those do 1,000,000 drone deliveries per day and be profitable without passing on $30 a delivery or or whatever the cost is to customers.

对。

Yeah.

这似乎是如今所有自动驾驶技术的一个共同主题，就是这些早期测试版本大多因为这样或那样的原因在经济上不划算。

That seems to be the the recurring theme with just about anything autonomous these days is where these these early testing versions of it are in most cases uneconomical for reasons one reason or another.

比如说，可能制造工艺还不过关，没法大规模生产。

Know, maybe the manufacturing isn't up to snuff so that it can build at scale.

或者使用的AI或自动驾驶软件还不够成熟，所以需要更多数据点来提高准确性之类的。

Maybe the AI or the autonomous software that it's using isn't quite there yet, and so you don't need more data points to make it more accurate and things like that.

所以很多情况，就像我们之前讨论的智能体AI一样，存在一个先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题，比如怎么实现规模化？

So lots of, similar to what we were talking about with agentic AI, that chicken and egg sort of situation, like how does one scale?

幸运的是，像Uber和亚马逊这样的公司可以在这上面砸很多钱，有时候能成功，有时候不行。

Fortunately, companies like Uber and Amazon can throw lots of money at this stuff, and sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't.

而这正是我想说的，因为这不是Uber第一次和自动驾驶配送公司合作。

And that's actually what I wanted to get at here because this isn't the first deal that Uber has made with autonomous delivery companies.

我记得大概去年这个时候，它和一家叫Flytrex的以色列无人机配送公司合作了。

I I think around this time last year, it partnered with an Israeli drone delivery company called Flytrex.

但那次合作进展得不太顺利。

That hasn't been quite working out as planned.

它还和地面自动驾驶送货机器人公司Serv Robotics合作过。

And it was a partner with ground based autonomous delivery robot company, Serv Robotics.

但不出所料，Uber和Serv没有续约，实际上上周就结束了。

But unsurprisingly, Uber and Serv didn't renew their agreement, and that actually ended last week.

我觉得这两件事同时发生不是巧合——一边是结束与Serv Robotics的合作，另一边是跟Zipline签下大单。

I don't think it's a coincidence here that these two stories, the, hey, we ended our agreement with Serv Robotics and we signed this big deal with Zipline right happening around the same time.

这不可能只是巧合。

It can't be a coincidence.

所以像无人机送货、自动驾驶这些领域，都是很有挑战的市场。

So like drone delivery, autonomy, these are challenging markets.

你知道，谁在赢，谁做得好，而且这些合作和协议似乎随时都可能变。

Know, who's winning, who's doing well, And it seems like, you know, these partnerships and agreements can come and go at any given time.

所以各位投资者，这显然是个令人兴奋的行业，增长潜力巨大。

So guys, as investors, clearly this is an exciting industry likely to do incredible things in terms of growth.

但你们在这个行业里看重什么？什么样的公司才算好公司？

But what are you looking for in this industry as a like, what makes it a good company in this industry?

嗯，就像我刚才说的，我想看到经济上能行得通。

Well, I mean, as I mentioned a minute ago, I want to see that the economics work.

如果你们还记得，亚马逊刚开始推出两天免费送货的时候，那对公司来说亏了好几年钱。

If you remember when Amazon first launched two day free shipping, that was a money loser for the company for years.

那在经济上并不划算。

It did not make economic sense.

像亚马逊这样的公司，以及其他公司，都投入了大量资金、时间和研发精力来建设物流网络。

Companies like Amazon and others have all invested a lot of money and a lot of time and research efforts in building out the logistic networks.

所以像免费隔夜送货这样的服务，不会吃掉他们的利润，而且在经济上确实合理。

So things like free overnight shipping don't kill their profits and actually make sense economically.

所以我在想，无人机配送和机器人这些，会不会也有那么大的挑战。

So I'm wondering if it's gonna be that big of a curve when it comes to, you know, drone delivery and robotics and things like that.

但除此之外，我还有几个问题。

And but beyond that, there are a few other questions I have.

监管方面会有很长的路要走。

There's there's gonna be a big regulatory runway.

现在，像亚马逊、Zipline这样的公司，你知道，都有无人机飞行的监管许可。

Right now, companies like Amazon, like Zipline have, you know, regulatory permits to fly drones.

当任何时候都有上百万架无人机在空中飞行时，监管障碍会更多。

There's gonna be more regulatory hurdles when there's a million of these going through the air at any given time.

所以会有很大的监管障碍需要解决。

So there's gonna be big regulatory hurdles that will need to be addressed.

我还希望看到他们建立合作伙伴关系。

And I'd like to see them build out their partnership relationships.

从Serve那里学到的一大教训是，过度依赖像Uber Eats这样的单一平台来获取需求，不是长期可持续的模式。

The big lesson you can get from Serve is that being too reliant on any one platform like Uber Eats for your demand is not a long term sustainable model.

而Zipline在真正推出之前就建立了几个重要的合作伙伴关系，这是正确的做法。

And Zipline's doing it right with several big partnerships before they even really launch.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，在投资中总是很难说这次不一样，但在我看来，Zipline和你提到的其他公司相比，确实有些不同，Tyler。

I mean, it's always so dangerous to say it's different this time in investing, but here's what's different with with Zipline compared to some of the other ones that you brought up, Tyler, in my view.

Zipline已经飞行了超过一亿英里的自主里程。

Zipline has already flown over a 100,000,000 autonomous miles.

它已经在利基行业中大规模进行无人机配送有一段时间了。

It has already been doing drone deliveries at scale in a niche industry for a while.

所以它在这方面已经有很多经验，我觉得它确实已经准备好进入主流市场了。

So it already has a lot of experience here and it is actually I think ready for prime time.

我认为它已经准备好通过与Uber的合作来扩展这项技术。

I think it's ready to scale this technology in an Uber partnership.

而其他一些公司则更像是初创企业的概念验证阶段。

Whereas some of the other companies are a little bit more startup proof of concept kind of a thing.

所以我觉得它在采用方面已经准备好迈出下一步了。

So I think it's ready to take that next step as far as adoption goes.

你问我在寻找什么，其中一个方面是——

And one of the things you ask, you ask what are you looking for?

嗯，展望未来，我一直在问自己一个问题。

Well, here's one of the things that I'm asking myself as I look ahead.

假设Zipline已经准备好登上大舞台了。

Let's say that Zipline is ready for for the big stage.

它已经准备好迎接聚光灯了。

It's ready for the spotlight.

它已经准备好扩大规模，这，比如说，就是我们在不久的将来获取食物配送的常规方式。

It is ready to scale up and this is, let's say, how we are going to the normal way we're gonna be getting our food delivery here in the not too distant future.

比如说，到2030年，用无人机配送将成为常态。

Let's say by 2030, it will be normal to get a delivery by drone.

有意思的是，Uber的首席执行官达拉·科斯罗萨西，我们就叫他达拉吧。

So interesting that Uber CEO, Dara Khasrozshahi, let's just call him Dara.

他说，他想让小型社区企业能够与亚马逊竞争。

He said, he wants to enable the small neighborhood business to compete with Amazon.

你想想，亚马逊的一大护城河是什么，就是物流。

You think about what Amazon's, one of its big moats is, it's logistics.

就是配送。

It's the shipping.

对吧？

Right?

如果优步真的能帮助社区小便利店在这一点上跟亚马逊竞争呢？因为用无人机把产品快速送到客户手里太容易了。

And what if Uber actually could help the small neighborhood corner store compete with Amazon on that because it's so easy to get your product quickly to the customer by drone.

这是个很大的说法，可能不太现实，但万一呢？

It's a huge statement, probably unrealistic, but what if?

万一这真的能削弱亚马逊的物流护城河呢？

What if that is actually something that could erode at a infrastructure, a logistics moat?

那就有意思了。

That would be interesting.

但我们也得看看另一面。

But let's also put the counter balance to this.

好。

Okay.

亚马逊这周也宣布了Prime Air，年底前要扩展到500个城市。

So Amazon also this week announcing Prime Air, expanding to 500 cities by the end of the year.

现在公司说，按照尺寸、重量这些要求来看，大约60%的订单现在就能用无人机处理，而且能在三十分钟内送到人们手上，这真的很厉害。

Now the company says that about 60% of its orders could be handled by drone right now when you look at the size, weight requirements, all that, and it could get stuff to people in thirty minutes, that's really big.

对。

Okay.

但是，Prime Air在这里的开局并不顺利。

But, Prime Air isn't off to a great start here.

德克萨斯州的一位女士第一次收到快递，结果无人机把包裹扔进了她的游泳池，她对此非常不满。

A lady in Texas got her first delivery dropped into her swimming pool and she was not happy about that.

所以，可能还有一些小问题需要解决。

So, maybe there's still a few kinks to work out.

这肯定是一个值得关注的故事。

This is certainly going to be a, a story worth following.

还有，刚才在节目里，我得说，你那个“起飞”的双关语用得真妙，我不知道还有谁注意到了，但我很喜欢。

And I got to say earlier in the segment here, kudos to you for the taking off pun because I don't know who else picked up on it, but I enjoyed that one.

最后再说一点。

And just a final thought here.

想想优步，我们曾经以为它会颠覆出租车行业，现在它却要挑战亚马逊的物流业务，这真的很有意思。

It's really interesting to think of what, you know, Uber, once we thought of the company that's going to disrupt taxis going into the we're gonna take on Amazon's logistics business.

这确实是个雄心勃勃的宣言，但绝对不是我们刚开始做优步时能预料到的。

Certainly an ambitious statement, but definitely not something we we saw with Uber when we got started.

休息之后，我们要来看看听众的来信。

Coming up after the break, we're gonna dip into the mailbag.

大家好。

Hey, everyone.

提醒一下，我们很喜欢在节目里回答你们的问题。

Just a quick reminder, we love answering your questions on air.

所以，如果你有问题想问我们，就发邮件到 podcastfool dot com。

So if you do have a question for us, email us at podcastfool dot com.

我们也在节目简介里放了邮箱地址。

We also left the email in the show description.

如果你想给我们发邮件，可以在那里找到我们。

So if you wanna email us, get us there.

一如既往，完全免费。

Free request as always.

第一，保持愚笨。

Number one, keep it foolish.

第二，保持简短。

Two, keep it short.

第三，尽量避免提供个性化建议，因为那样做可能会惹上美国证券交易委员会的麻烦。

And three, try to avoid personalised advice because we can't do that without getting in trouble with the SEC.

今天的问题来自伊琳娜·巴罗娃，她是这样说的。

So today's question comes in from Irina Barova, and here it goes.

亲爱的傻瓜们，你们好。

Hello, beloved fools.

我是你们的忠实听众，也是股票顾问的订阅者，已经超过十年了，我来自捷克共和国。

I am your loyal listener and a stock advisor subscriber for more than ten years and from The Czech Republic.

从2015年开始，我每一集都听了，基本上所有The Motley Fool的播客也都听了。

I've listened to every single episode and pretty much all of The Motley Fool podcasts since 2015.

嘿，你知道吗，阿瑞娜？

So, hey, you know what, Arena?

谢谢。

Thanks.

很高兴听到你喜欢我们。

It's great to hear that you enjoyed us.

所以问题是这样的，这其实是专门问马特·弗兰克尔的。

So here's the question, and this actually is directed specifically at Matt Frankel.

在疫情严重的时候，大概2020年左右，弗兰克尔提出了一家基于云的房地产公司，叫EXP控股。

In the deep COVID time, somewhere around 2020, Frankel brought to the table a cloud based realtor called EXP Holdings.

现在它改了，股票代码现在是AGNT。

It's now changed, the ticker is now AGNT.

我喜欢这个论点，这是个三赢的局面。

I love the thesis, it was a win win win.

对经纪人来说，佣金分成更优，这意味着客户费用更低，而且公司能留住忠诚的经纪人。

Better fees split for agents, which means lower fees for the customer, and loyal agents for the company.

我买了这家公司，然后在房地产市场有点走下坡路的时候又加仓了。

I bought the company and then added as the real estate market kinda went sideways.

到目前为止，除了分红，其他方面都不太理想，但除非有什么变化，否则这个分红似乎也维持不了多久。

So far, it's been not a rewarding experience except for the dividend, but that doesn't seem sustainable unless something changes.

很期待听听马特现在对这家公司的看法，特别是考虑到伯克希尔·哈撒韦对建筑行业持乐观态度。

Be great to hear Matt's current thoughts on the company in light of Berkshire Hathaway going bullish on the building industry.

现在是不是重新考虑AGNT的好时机，还是说它看起来已经没什么希望了？

Is it maybe a good time to bring AGNT back to the table or does it seem like a lost cause?

谢谢大家。

Thanks all.

Arena。

Arena.

对。

Yeah.

为了简单起见，我就叫它eXpeak吧。

So for simplicity, I'm gonna refer to it as eXpeak.

这还是他们用的品牌名。

That's still the brand name they use.

房地产市场确实还是像家得宝的CEO最近说的那样，处于冻结状态。

The the real estate market does remain quote frozen as Home Depot's CEO recently put it.

但这里有几件实实在在的事情值得分析，有好有坏。

But there are a few real things to unpack here, both good and bad.

从好的方面看，eXp的商业模式是有效的。

So on the upside, eXp, their model's working.

他们继续在扩大市场份额。

They continue to gain market share.

你是在一个萎缩的市场中抢占份额，但这为将来市场好转时取得成功打下了基础。

You're gaining share of a declining market, but that's setting yourself up for success when things turn around.

他们刚刚公布了一个创纪录的季度。

They just reported a record quarter.

我们说的可是房地产行业。

This is a real estate business we're talking about.

第二季度，营收同比增长了11%。

In q two, revenue grew 11% year over year.

成交量增长了15%。

Sales volume grew by 15%.

我敢说，整个房地产市场的成交量绝对没有增长那么多。

I promise you home sales volume overall didn't grow by that.

他们正在抢占市场份额。

They're gaining share.

调整后的EBITDA翻了一倍多。

Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled.

而且他们是一家没有债务的公司。

Plus they're a debt free company.

他们手头有1.11亿美元的现金。

They have a 111,000,000 in cash.

这家公司的市值还不到8亿美元。

This is a sub $800,000,000 market cap company.

他们有4.2%的股息收益率，但我不担心可持续性。

They have that 4.2% dividend yield, but I wouldn't worry about sustainability.

如果他们不是按GAAP盈利，我们一会儿再说，但他们的现金流是正的。

If they're not GAAP profitable, we'll get to that in a second, they are cash flow positive.

他们的股息被现金流很好地覆盖了。

Their dividend's well covered by their cash flow.

我同意那个关于伯克希尔的看法。

I agree with that Berkshire angle.

他们在住房上下了大赌注。

They're betting big on housing.

他们拥有克莱顿房屋，我可以论证这家公司本身就值250亿美元。

They own Clayton Homes, which I can make the case as a $25,000,000,000 company all by itself.

他们刚收购了泰勒莫里森。

They just bought Taylor Morrison.

他们把在莱纳的持股增加了30%。

They increased their stake in Lennar by 30%.

他们还拥有最大的房地产经纪公司之一，顺便说一句，这家公司和EXP是直接竞争对手。

They own one of the largest real estate brokerages, which by the way is a direct competitor with EXP.

值得注意的是，现有房屋销售比新房销售更低迷，而伯克希尔似乎更倾向于新房销售。

Worth noting, existing home sales are more depressed than new homes, which Berkshire seems to be leaning a little more into the new home sales.

我的意思是，归根结底，我不一定认为这家公司没救了。

I mean, the bottom line is I don't necessarily think the company is a lost cause.

这是一门有现金流的生意。

It's a cash flowing business.

它还在不断获得市场份额。

It's gained market share.

在房地产市场真正复苏之前，我不会指望这只股票能带来超越市场的回报。

I would not expect market beating returns from the stock until we get a serious housing recovery.

马特，并不是只有这个平台在标榜自己更亲经纪人。

Matt, this isn't the only platform out there that is kind of billing itself as more agent friendly.

有一个我关注了很久但一直没下手的平台，就是REAL Brokerage，股票代码是REAX。

One that I've kicked the tires on for a long time and never pulled the trigger on is REAL Brokerage, that is ticker symbol REAX.

但我在想，无论是EXP还是REAL Brokerage，你觉得它们是不是对经纪人太友好了，以至于股东其实没得到什么好处？因为经纪人拿到的分成确实很高，留给公司或者股东的就不多了。

But I wonder with both EXP and REAL Brokerage, do you think that they're so agent friendly in how they structure things that it's not really paying off for shareholders because the agents, they do get a huge cut and it doesn't leave much left over for the company or by extension the shareholders.

所以你觉得这就是问题所在吗？

So do you think that's what's going on here?

我也想补充一下，因为我们在讨论这些新兴经纪公司不一定对股东友好，但REMAX和二十一世纪也上市很久了。

I wanna pile on that too because we're talking about the new brokerages as not necessarily being shareholder friendly, but REMAX and Century twenty one have been publicly traded for a long time too.

从股东的角度来看，它们也没好到哪里去。

And those aren't exactly killing it from a shareholder perspective either.

我明白。

I understand.

我接下来要说一些像“股票补偿”这样的词，可能会让泰勒听得火冒三丈，但不管了，我们还是继续说。

And and I'm gonna use words here like stock based compensation that'll make smoke come out of Tyler's ears, but let's go for it anyway.

这两家公司之所以没有实现GAAP盈利，是因为它们不仅提供更好的佣金分成，还给系统里的每个员工或经纪人发放股权奖励。

So the reason that both companies are not GAAP profitable is because they offer not only better commission splits, they offer equity awards to every employee or every agent in their system.

这就是eXp最大的卖点。

That's that's eXp's big value proposition.

所以不只是高层有股票补偿，你知道，整个公司都有。

So it's not just stock based comp for the people at the top there, you know, it's throughout the company.

考虑到公司的规模，这可不是一笔小数目。

It's a pretty large amount considering, you know, the size of the company.

这就是他们GAAP利润不达标的原因。

That's why they're not GAAP profitable.

而且他们的毛利率也不太好，但还算过得去。

I mean, and their gross margins are not doing great, but they're, they're okay.

他们仍然是稳健的公司。

They're still solid companies.

这两家公司的大致策略都一样，就是通过慷慨的待遇从传统经纪公司那里抢市场份额。

Both of them both have the same general plan of taking share from traditional brokerages by being generous.

如果房地产市场强劲起来，这可能会带来不错的回报。

If we get a robust real estate market, it could pay off nicely.

我不会说他们对股东不友好。

I wouldn't say that they're, you know, shareholder unfriendly.

虽然股票薪酬占收入的比例有点高，你知道，跟我期望的相比。

Although the stock based comp is a little bit high as a percentage of revenue, you know, compared to what I would like to see.

但如果市场好起来，公司反弹，那一两年后我们讨论的就会完全不同了。

But that could if we get a great market, the company rebounds, then we're we're having a completely different discussion a year or two from now.

嗯，我觉得我们最近几次聊到房地产，都是同样的说法。

Well, I think the last couple of conversations we've had with housing, has been the same thing.

就是说，等房市复苏，但我觉得这话我们已经说了好几年了。

It's like, well, when the housing market recovers, but I feel like we've been saying that for a few years now.

所以我们就只能一直等着，不知道要等到什么时候。

So we'll just be, I don't know, waiting for Godot for that thing to happen for a while now.

好了，今天的时间就到这里。

Well, that's all the time we have for today.

各位，谢谢你们的分享。

Guys, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

我会公布一下披露信息，然后我们就结束。

I'll hit disclosure, and we'll get out here.

和往常一样，节目嘉宾可能持有我们讨论的股票，而Motley Fool也可能对这些股票有正式的推荐或反对意见。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks we talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以不要仅仅根据你听到的内容来买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容都遵循Motley Fool的编辑标准，并且未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告是赞助内容，仅供参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

要查看我们的完整广告披露，请查看我们的节目说明。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢大家，特别是Bart Shannon和Motley Fool团队的其他人。

Thanks for everybody, sir Bart Shannon, the rest of Motley Fool team.

对于Jon、Matt和我自己，感谢你们的收听，我们很快再聊。

For Jon, Matt, and myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.