数据中心投资趋势是否陷入困境？

数据中心投资趋势是不是遇到麻烦了？

Is the data center investing trend in trouble?

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欢迎收听 Motley Fool 的 Hidden Gems 投资节目。

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我是主持人 Jon Quast，今天和我一起的是 Fool 的撰稿人 Matt Frankel 和 Lou Whiteman。

I'm your host Jon Quast, and I'm joined today by Fool contributors, Matt Frankel and Lou Whiteman.

今天我们要聊聊数据中心建设这个趋势，我保证不会重复以前说过的话题。

Today, we're gonna talk about the data center build out trend, and I promise that we're not going to regurgitate past talking points.

这次会有些新内容，但首先，我们想谈谈 Snowflake。

There's gonna be some new stuff here, but first, we wanted to talk about Snowflake.

Snowflake 自从几年前上市以来，一直是投资者非常青睐的股票。

Snowflake has been a very popular stock among investors since it went public a number of years ago.

它现在市值超过一千亿美元，今天股价上涨了超过 20%。

It is over a 100,000,000,000 company and today, it is up more than 20%.

它正在创下五十二周新高，而且接近历史最高点。

It is hitting fifty two week highs and it is approaching all time highs.

马特，我们想请你来谈谈Snowflake现在的情况。

Matt, we're gonna let you talk to us here about what is happening with Snowflake.

对。

Yeah.

这时候我就觉得伯克希尔·哈撒韦卖得太早了。

This is when I have to think that Berkshire Hathaway sold too early.

他们轻松超出了预期。

They beat expectations pretty handily.

营收增长预期是35%。

Revenue growth was expected at 35%.

结果达到了37%。

It was it ended up 37%.

他们连续第五个季度在利润上超出预期。

They beat on the bottom line for the fifth consecutive quarter.

业绩指引大幅上调。

Massive guidance raise.

而且他们的净收入留存率达到了126%，这意味着客户随着时间的推移花费越来越多。

And they posted a net revenue retention rate of 126%, which means that its customers are spending more and more as time goes on.

这个比率相当惊人。

That's a pretty remarkable rate.

所以这个季度几乎没什么可挑剔的。

So it, it not much to dislike about this quarter.

对，Jon，我们是不是得把沃伦·巴菲特叫来，给他上一堂日内交易的课？

Yeah, Jon, do we have to, call Warren Buffett in and give him a lecture on day trading?

因为，是啊，沃伦，这到底是怎么回事？

Because yeah, what's going on here, Warren?

你为什么卖出了？

Why'd you get out?

不过这只股票一直都很奇怪。

This has been just a weird stock though.

可不是嘛。

Hasn't it?

即使在科技股里，它也是一只备受青睐的IPO，部分原因是伯克希尔在IPO前就入股了，所以它是沃伦·巴菲特认可的那家科技公司。

Even for tech stocks, it was a darling IPO in part because it was the Berkshire got in before the IPO, So it was the tech company that Warren Buffett endorsed.

它跌得一塌糊涂。

It fell nothing.

我的意思是，它跌了，然后差不多三年都没什么动静，现在又好了，但话说回来，它也才刚刚回到2021年的历史高点。

I mean, it fell and did nothing for about three years and now it's great again, but then again, it's also barely back to its all time highs from 2021.

真是一家非常非常有意思的公司，但这个季度表现真是棒极了。

Just a really, really interesting company, but a heck of a quarter.

不仅仅是上调了指引，而且是非常激进地上调，预计2027财年营收增长36%。

Not just a beaten raise, but a really aggressive raise, 36% revenue growth forecasted in fiscal twenty seven.

这还是在本来就不错的基数上。

That's from a pretty good base to begin with.

确实，就像罗恩·格罗斯常说的，全速运转。

Definitely, as Ron Gross would say, firing on all cylinders.

对，你们俩都提到了它为什么会有这么奇怪的上市公司发展轨迹。

Well, and yeah, both of you are referencing why it has had such a weird publicly traded company arc.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦，沃伦·巴菲特，大家都知道他向来回避科技股，却投资了这家在IPO前很多人都不了解的公司，这被视为一个重要的认可标志。

Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett, very much known for being tech averse and getting in on this company that a lot of people didn't understand prior to the IPO and it was seen as a major stamp of approval here.

就像，如果连回避科技股的投资者都投了，那我是不是也应该投？

Like, if the tech averse investors are getting in on this, shouldn't I get in on this as well?

IPO前股价大幅上涨，然后我想回到卢刚才说的，对很多投资者来说，这股票一直表现不佳，取决于你什么时候买入，它一直是一只让人失望的股票，但你看它上市以来的表现，它经常超出营收预期，经常提高预期，但对很多投资者来说，它并不是一只表现好的股票。

Massive run up prior to the IPO, and it is just kind of I wanna circle back to something that Lou just said here, it's kind of been a loser for many investors, depending on when you got in, this has been a loser stock, but you look at what it's done since going public, it routinely beats its revenue guidance, it routinely raises expectations and so, but it hasn't been a good performing stock for many investors.

那这次有什么不同？

So what what is different this time?

因为我们过去也超出预期并提高预期，现在也是，而且被市场追捧，但这次到底有什么真正的不同，马特？

Because we've beaten Raised in the past, we're beating and raising now and it's being celebrated, but what what is really different here, Matt?

是的。

Yeah.

所以股价大涨不仅仅是因为他们超出了预期。

So the price jump wasn't just because they beat expectations.

就像你说的，Snowflake经常能超出预期。

Like you said, Snowflake regularly beats expectations.

连续五个季度的净利润都好于预期。

Five consecutive quarters of better than expected bottom line.

关键其实在于加速增长。

It's because of the acceleration really.

在过去三个季度里，他们的营收增长率从30%提升到34%，再到37%，全都超出了市场预期。

So over the past three quarters, their top line growth has gone from 30% to 34% to 37%, all ahead of expectations.

第三季度的指引显示，未来的增速还会进一步加快。

And q three guidance, you know, it it implies even more acceleration going forward.

不仅如此，在增速超出预期的同时，利润率也得到了改善，这真的非常难得。

And not only that, but margins improved while the growth accelerated faster than expected, which is really impressive.

现在很多公司都在经历这种加速增长，但它们为此付出了更高的代价。

A lot of companies have this kind of acceleration right now, but they're they're paying up for it.

调整后营业利润率略高于15%。

Adjusted operating margin came in at a little over 15%.

一年前是11%。

It was 11% a year ago.

所以不仅是增长在加速，盈利能力也在提升。

So not only is the growth accelerating, but so is the profitability.

这就是为什么今天股价上涨超过20%的原因。

So that's that's really why you're seeing the stock up more than 20% today.

对。

Yeah.

我真希望我能坐上时光机，回到大约两年前去投资，因为自2024年的低点以来，股价已经翻了大约四倍。

I wish I could jump in the DeLorean and invest just about two years ago because the stock has roughly quadrupled since it's 2024 lows.

而且，朋友们，如果你想找到一只能在短时间内表现如此出色的股票，我的意思是，找到一只即将开始加速营收增长的股票。

And and really boys and girls, you want to find a stock that can perform so well over a short time period, I mean, find a stock that is about to start accelerating revenue growth.

不是现在正在加速的，而是营收增长即将真正提速的。

One that's not doing it right now, but revenue growth is about to really pick up.

那往往会是表现良好的股票。

That can often be something that is going to perform well.

但是Lou，我们稍微聊聊这个加速增长吧。

But Lou, let's talk about this acceleration a little bit.

我的意思是，不只是它在加速，为什么Snowflake突然就像踩了油门一样？

I mean, it's not just that it's accelerating, why is all of a sudden the gas pedal hitting the floor for Snowflake?

如果你听过这个说法就打断我，但就是AI，对吧？

Stop me if you heard this before, but AI, okay?

而且说实话，你说得对。

And and to be fair, you're right.

之前有很多次业绩超预期但股价没怎么动，但上个季度我们看到了非常类似的超预期，而且涨幅比今天的20%还要大。

There's been a lot of beaten raises where it didn't do much, but last quarter we saw a very similar beaten raise and I think even bigger jump versus the 20% today.

所以我们慢慢开始理解了，但AI模型就是靠数据驱动的。

So we're slowly catching on here, but like AI models thrive on data.

这是所有这一切的基础。

That is the just foundation for all of these.

Snowflake的核心使命就是让数据变得可访问，整理数据，让数据不仅对人类可用，也对AI可用。

Snowflake's core purpose is to make data accessible, to organize data and to make data available to humans but also AI.

所以我觉得这简直是天作之合。

So this is sort of a marriage made in heaven I think.

几年前他们挨了不少批评，股价下跌的原因之一就是他们从单纯的授权模式转向了按用量计费的模式。

They took a lot of flack a few years ago and one of the reasons the stock went down was they switched from just a license model to a consumption model.

也就是说，你只用付你实际使用的部分。

So you only pay for what you use.

当时这导致收入方向不对，因为公司不再支付高额固定费用，而是可以挑着用，只在需要的时候才用。

And at the time that drove revenue in the wrong direction because instead of just paying a massive huge flat fee, companies could kind of cherry pick and only use it when they had to.

但突然之间，AI工作负载涌入，按用量计费的模式真的帮了他们大忙，不管这是可持续的还是暂时的。

But all of a sudden, AI workloads are coming in there and consumption based model is really, really helping them whether or not it's sustainable or temporary.

我们可能会看到结果介于两者之间，但现在在一个你急需把数据喂给模型的环境里，按用量付费对Snowflake来说是非常非常好的模式。

We'll be able, we'll see probably somewhere in the middle, but right now paying for what you use in an environment where you desperately need to get data into your models is a very, very good model for Snowflake.

对。

Yeah.

我想指出的是，管理层特别提到，AI工作负载大约贡献了我们刚才讨论的那部分增长加速的一半。

I would call out that management specifically said that AI workloads drove roughly half of that growth acceleration we were talking about.

所以现在这确实是一个很大的推动力。

So it is a major tailwind right now.

当然，Snowflake的Cocoa产品，也就是那个编码代理，基本上能利用你自己的数据来为你的应用程序编写代码。

And of course, Snowflake's Cocoa product, this is the the coding agent, and basically, are able to incorporate your own data to write code for your for your own applications.

这可能会非常强大，继续推动这种加速。

That could be really powerful in continuing that acceleration.

但我们不想只是站在旁边当啦啦队。

But we don't wanna be just cheerleaders here on the sideline.

我们确实想谈谈一些投资者可能需要注意的事情。

We we do want to talk about some things that maybe investors should take note of.

不是说天要塌下来了，但有些值得关注的地方，可能会成为未来的隐患。

Not necessarily, you know, absolute the sky is falling, but some some things to watch that that could be concerns down the road.

我们先让Matt来说吧。

We'll let Matt go first here.

好的。

Yeah.

所以我的意思是，我注意到了一些事情。

So I mean, there are a few things that I noticed.

一个是我们录制前聊过的，他们的RPO，基本上就是他们的积压订单。

One that we talked about before we recorded, their RPO, which is essentially their backlog.

它的增长速度比收入稍微慢一点，但其中很多是季节性因素，Snowflake指出他们的续约等事情往往发生在第四季度。

It it grew a little bit slower than revenue, but a lot of that seasonality Snowflake pointed out that their, you know, their their renewals and things like that tend to happen in the fourth quarter.

所以我不太关注这个。

So I'm not paying too much attention to that.

估值显然是个问题。

Valuation is obviously a concern.

我多次吸取过教训，你也一样，估值总是有点重要。

I I've learned a lesson many times as I know you have that valuation always matters a little bit.

Snowflake现在的交易价格大约是前瞻销售额的20倍，自由现金流的80倍。

Snowflake right now trades for about 20 times forward sales, about 80 times free cash flow.

即使有这样的增长，这个估值也很高。

That's a lot even with that growth.

还有股票补偿。

And stock based compensation.

我们讨论这些的时候之所以引用调整后每股收益之类的指标，就是因为他们给员工发了很多股票。

There's a reason we're quoting things like adjusted EPS when we're talking about all this because they are giving out a lot of stock to employees.

他们的股票补偿几乎占到收入的30%。

Their stock based compensation is almost 30% of revenue.

这个比例相当高。

That's a lot.

不过相比一年前的39%，已经有所下降了，这点值得肯定。

That's down to their credit from 39% a year ago.

但过去一年，他们的股票还是被稀释了超过4%。

But their stock was diluted by more than 4% over the past year.

而且这还是在他们进行了一些回购来抵消的情况下。

And that's even with some buybacks intended to offset it.

所以这是我最担心的问题之一。

So that's my one of my big concerns.

对。

Yeah.

我很高兴你提到这一点，因为你知道的，这是生活的一部分。

I'm glad you said that because, you know, look, it's part of life.

我们早就习惯了，但我真的对这种做法感到特别沮丧。

We're used to it, but I am so frustrated by all this, you know, the way it's done.

所以我觉得这确实是个需要评估的问题。

So I think that's definitely that evaluation.

另外我想提一下，他们预警说未来的毛利率会下滑。

The other thing I'd mention is, is they did warn of some gross margin depression up ahead.

指引下调了100个基点，但你看，指引仍然显示是74%。

The guidance was down a 100 basis points, but look, the guidance was still for 74%.

所以这个利润率还算不错。

So those are decent margins.

我不想过度悲观。

I don't want to, play chicken little.

更大的问题是，这其实是一个更宏观的问题。

The bigger question, and this is sort of just the bigger picture question.

我们听说了关于token消耗最大化的事情。

We've heard about token maxing.

我们也听说了，很多公司现在都处于AI探索阶段。

We've heard about just like companies, just kind of we're in the AI exploring mode.

而且我们似乎正在向AI效率模式转变。

And we seem to be moving towards an AI efficiency mode.

所以电话会议上可能有人问，客户现在是不是不理性了，还是这种情况能持续下去？

So maybe there was a question on the call about is the customer just being irrational now or can this continue?

我觉得这个问题问得挺好的。

And I think it's a decent question to ask.

有没有可能有一天，AI的用量会变得更聪明而不是更大，那种基于消耗的模式会回归理性，如果是这样的话，这仍然是一门好生意。

Is there a time that maybe the AI volumes get smarter instead of bigger and that consumption based model kinda comes back down to earth, it's still a good business if so.

但回到Matt提到的估值问题，目前的估值已经包含了大量现状持续并且继续上涨的预期。

But back to Matt's point of valuation, there's a lot of the status quo continuing and going higher from here baked into that valuation.

所以任何一点小波动都可能引发麻烦。

So any little flinch could, could cause trouble.

休息之后，我们要深入聊聊数据中心。

After the break, we're gonna be diving into data centers.

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今天我们来聊聊数据中心。

So we wanna talk about data centers here.

七月份，纽约成为第一个暂停新建数据中心的州，特别是针对50兆瓦及以上的项目。

In July, New York became the first state to put a moratorium on new data centers, and specifically for 50 megawatts and bigger.

如果你站在某个政治立场上，看到纽约州暂停数据中心，你可能会说，这符合纽约的一贯作风。

Now, if you're on a certain side of the political aisle, the political spectrum, you might look at a state such as New York, putting a moratorium on it and saying, well, that's what you'd expect with New York.

但现在得克萨斯州也出来暂停审批，因为他们担心电力供应，而且社区也有反对的声音。

But Texas now coming out and also putting a pause button on approvals, because they're in concern about power and there's pushback from from communities.

所以你看，这边是红方的人，那边是蓝方的人，两个人都对非常大的州、非常知名的州下手，都在对新数据中心按下暂停键。

So here we have somebody on the red side of the spectrum and the blue side, and they're both hitting very big states, prominent states, they're both hitting the pause button here on new data centers.

当然，总统已经表态了，说如果你反对AI发展，那你就会落后、会变穷。

Now, the president, of course, has stated his opinion that if you oppose AI progress, you're gonna be backwards and poor.

但我们一直在聊这个趋势，因为真的有数万亿美元涌入经济来建设这些，这也给我们带来了很多股票赢家。

But, know, we've been talking about this trend a lot because there's literally trillions of dollars pouring into the economy to build this out that has resulted in many stock winners for us.

而现在这个数据中心热潮，开始出现反对声音和质疑了。

And this data center boom, now there's pushbacks and questions about it.

所以我们想聊聊这个话题。

So we wanted to talk about that.

到底是怎么回事？为什么会有反对声音，马特？

What what is going on and why is there pushback here, Matt?

你知道吗，我对这个数据并不感到意外。

You know, I I'm not surprised about this statistic.

70%的美国人不想让数据中心建在自己家附近。

70% of Americans don't want data centers built near their homes.

现在我可不想从窗户望出去就看到那种东西。

Now I wouldn't want to look out my window right now.

我现在看到的是漂亮的棕榈树之类的。

I see some nice Palm trees, things like that.

我可不想看到那里有个巨大的数据中心。

I wouldn't want to see a giant data center there.

所以我对那个统计数据并不感到意外。

So I, I'm not shocked at that statistic.

但让我惊讶的是，目前美国有833个专门反对数据中心建设的组织。

I was shocked to find out that there are eight thirty three separate organizations that are specifically created in in The United States to be opposed to data center construction right now.

这些反对组织，今年上半年成功阻止或推迟了他们针对的每三个数据中心项目中的两个。

Now opposition groups, these 833 groups in the first half of the year successfully blocked or delayed two out of every three data center projects they targeted.

这让我很意外，投资者应该关注这一点。

That surprised me and that's something that investors should pay attention to.

好的。

Okay.

那么马特，给我们举个例子，这些数据中心有什么合理的担忧？

So Matt, give us an example here of a legitimate concern when it comes to these data centers.

对。

Yeah.

你提到这不是一个政治问题。

So you mentioned this is not a political issue.

不管你在政治光谱的哪一边，没人喜欢更高的电费。

Regardless of what side of the political spectrum you're on, nobody likes higher power bills.

过去一年，美国的电费平均上涨了大约5%，在某些地区，特别是数据中心附近的地区，涨幅要高得多。

Electric bills in The United States have risen about 5% on average over the past year, much higher in some areas, specifically the areas near data centers.

数据中心巨大的电力消耗是主要原因之一，预计未来一年还将再影响6%。

And the the massive power consumption by data centers is a big reason why, and they're expected to have a further 6% impact over the next year.

即使是大多数行业倡导者，比如伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的CEO格雷格·阿贝尔，伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司也是其中的净受益者。

Even most industry advocates like Greg Abel, Berkshire Hathaway CEO, who Berkshire Hathaway Energy is a net beneficiary of this.

你知道，他昨天上电视说，超大规模企业应该承担由此产生的电费。

You know, he went on TV yesterday and said that the hyperscalers should absorb the power bills that these are causing.

这确实是个大障碍，也是个合理的担忧。

And that's, that is a big roadblock and a legitimate concern.

对。

Yeah.

现在这个局面挺奇怪的，因为我不想轻视这些担忧。

It's a weird moment now because I don't want to make light of the concerns.

我觉得这些担忧很严重，需要认真对待。

I think the concerns are serious and they need to be addressed.

但我也觉得这些暂停令背后，存在一个巨大的权力不对等。我们现在看到的是，那些大型科技公司带着成队的律师，而另一边是小镇的行政机构，很多镇议会的成员可能只是兼职，平时还有自己的日常工作。

But I also think these moratoriums are, There's just a massive uneven power dynamic that what we're seeing right now between these big tech companies with their teams and teams of lawyers and small towns jurisdictions where a lot of the town council may be part time workers who have like day to day job.

正是这种情况导致了暂停令，而且我觉得这很可能是暂时的。

That's going on, that's what's causing this moratorium and I do think it's probably temporary.

所以，基本上你是在跟一个万亿美元级别的公司对抗，而你们只是一个小小的市政当局，那谁来承担电费呢？

So I mean, yeah, basically you're going up against a trillion dollar company and you're just this little tiny municipality and yeah, who who pays for the power?

而且你可能很难跟他们谈判。

And you might have a hard time negotiating that.

但是卢，你觉得我们能挺过这段暂停期吗？

But do you do you think Lou that we get past this this pause?

我是说，你刚才也提到了，但事情会重新有起色吗？

I mean, you've already alluded to it, but get things coming again?

嗯，事情是这样的。

Well, here's the thing.

我觉得权力关系应该反过来才对。

I think the power dynamics should work the other way.

他们其实特别急着想推进这些项目。

They are desperate to get these things moving.

你看看Meta、Alphabet，还有那些公司，为了尽快推进花了多少钱。

I mean, look at what Meta, what Alphabet, what all these companies are spending to just try to go as quickly as they can.

感觉那些小镇、地方政府和州政府，他们手里的筹码比他们自己以为的要多。

It feels like the towns, the municipalities, and states, they have more leverage than they realize.

所以我觉得这个问题能自己解决，只要说‘不，你自己供电，或者干脆接入我们的电网，把电送过来’。

So I do think this problem solves itself by saying no, supply your own power or even contribute to our grid and bring power.

不过现在最大的问题是这些暂停措施，我觉得纽约提过，德州也提过，咱们应该在州一级进行谈判，这样更像是一场较量。

The big thing now is though with these moratoriums, I think New York talked about it, Texas talked about it, let's get these negotiated on the state level where it's kind of a more fight.

有州里的律师，州里出面，你就不能让各个城镇互相竞争。

You have the state lawyers, the state, you can't play towns against each other.

我们不能说谢尔比维尔给了我们什么条件，但那条件真的非常好。

You can't we're not gonna say what Shelbyville offered us, but it's really, really good.

所以斯普林菲尔德难道不想得到好的条件吗？这种竞争导致了大量的愤怒和疯狂。

So doesn't Springfield wanna get a good that's the dynamics that have led to a lot of this anger and a lot of this, just kind of the craziness.

在州一级组织起来，一切都更透明，而且由专业人士与专业人士谈判，这些人就是干这个的。我觉得这样就能结束这些暂停措施，让事情推进起来。

At a state level organized where everything is a little more transparent and you have just professionals negotiating with professionals who do this for a I think that that does end these moratoriums to get things going.

而且我觉得一旦我们解决了这些问题，社区的情况可能会好很多。

And I do think it the paradynamics might look a lot better for communities once once we get

对。

Yeah.

现在公众舆论的潮流确实已经转向反对这些项目了，但是马特，关于数据中心，我们是不是也应该考虑一些积极因素呢？

The tide of public opinion has definitely turned against these things right now, but Matt, I mean, are there some positives that we should consider when it comes to the data centers?

对。

Yeah.

我是说，你提到总统那句“落后”和“可怜”的话，其实要展开说的话，他确实提到了一些非常合理的正面因素。

I mean, you mentioned the president's backwards and poor quote, which, I mean, to unpack that more, he actually did mention some, some very, you know, legitimate positives.

就业机会就是其中之一。

Job creation is one.

现在路易斯安那州正在建一个超大规模的数据中心。

That is building a massive data center in Louisiana right now.

在建设高峰期，预计会带来7500个建筑岗位，虽然是临时的，但这个项目大概要持续八年，同时还会给当地带来大约一千个永久性岗位。

It has, at peak construction, it's estimated to bring 7,500 construction jobs, are temporary, but this is gonna be like an eight year project, as well as about a thousand permanent jobs to the area.

所以确实能带来就业。

So it does bring in jobs.

这还关系到国家安全。

It is a national security concern.

他提到中国在笑话我们，因为这会帮助他们在AI竞赛中领先。

He mentioned China is laughing at us because this will help them in the AI race.

这也不是完全没道理。

It's not totally wrong.

你知道，保持技术领先是国家安全的很大一部分。

You know, maintaining a tech lead is a big part of national security.

我们在The Fool有一个完整的国家安全投资组合，很多股票都专注于保持我们的技术领先地位。

We have a whole national security portfolio at The Fool and a lot of the stocks are focused on maintaining our tech lead.

而且，房产税是另一回事。

And I mean, property taxes are another thing.

我提到了那个Meta数据中心。

I mentioned that meta data center.

它给路易斯安那州的一个教区带来了大约3000万美元的房产税账单，而该教区去年的税收总额是2200万美元。

It is bringing in a roughly $30,000,000 property tax bill to a parish in Louisiana whose tax receipts last year were $22,000,000 total.

所以，你知道，房产税有了很大的提升。

So, you know, that's a big jump up in property taxes.

所以，这些确实有一些合理的积极面，而且，他提到这些超大规模数据中心只需要更好的公关，来告诉人们为什么他们应该希望这些设施建在附近。

So there are some legitimate positives for these that and and I mean, he mentioned that these hyperscalers just need better PR to to tell people why they should want this near them.

而且确实有一些合理的理由。

And and there are some legitimate reasons.

对。

Yeah.

所以Lou在这里说，他认为数据中心方面的暂停，也就是暂停令，是暂时的。

So Lou here talking about, he believes that the pause, the moratorium when it comes to data centers is temporary.

假设Lou是对的，数据中心趋势重新回到正轨。

Let's assume that Lou is right here, that the data center trend gets back on track.

那股票呢？

What about the stocks?

因为正如你提到的，在隐藏的宝石股票池里，有很多股票跟这个趋势相关，而且现在很多都在下跌。

Because as you mentioned, there there are many stocks in the hidden gems universe that are tied to this trend and many of them are down right now.

看看Marvell，跌了超过30%。

I look at Marvell, down more than 30%.

看看Celestica，跌了将近40%。

I look at Celestica, down almost 40%.

Sterling Infrastructure，在我们跟踪的股票里算是表现比较好的，但从高点跌了超过50%。

Sterling Infrastructure, one of the better performers in among our stocks that we follow here, it's down more than 50% from its high.

那这些股票能重回正轨吗？

So do these stocks get back on track?

这很复杂，明白吗？

It's complicated, okay?

这会解决一些问题，但可能不会解决这些股票的所有问题。

It's gonna solve some of the problems, but it might not solve all the problems for these stocks.

不过具体看公司，有些公司确实存在严重的产能限制。

Depending on the company though, there were serious capacity constraints at work here too.

不管你的订单簿怎么样，如果你只有那么多员工，或者只有那么多制造产能，或者只有那么多设备可以安装，即使需求更多也没用。

It doesn't matter what your order book looks like if you only have so many employees or you only have so much manufacturing capacity or there's only so much equipment available to be installed even if you have more demand.

我既相信数据中心建设会恢复，也认为其中一些公司会有改善。

I both believe database construction will recover and I do think that there's going to be some improvements for some of these companies.

但我也觉得，这些供应商、这些卖铲子的公司，大部分收益，那些爆炸性的收益，可能已经过去了。

But I also think that the majority of the gains, there's the blockbuster gains for these suppliers for these picks and shovels, they may be behind us.

现在不是那种大幅增长的时候了。

It's not a bit a sort of gains now.

现在只是维持一个高位运行的环境。

It's about just kind of extending an elevated operating environment.

我对此有点不同意见。

I I push back on that a little bit.

我是说，卢，你提到了制造能力和员工能力是限制因素。

I mean, you Lou mentioned manufacturing capacity, employee capacity is as constraints.

其实还有其他限制。

There are others too.

你知道，还有电力容量的问题，我们之前聊过。

You know, there's there's power capacity, which we've talked about.

这就是为什么电费在涨。

That's why electric bills are going up.

还有芯片短缺，你知道，数据中心需要芯片来填充。

There's, you know, chip shortages, which, you know, you need chips to fill these data centers.

还需要资金。

You need capital.

你知道的，英伟达刚刚预测明年超大规模云厂商的资本支出将达到一万三千亿美元。

You know, NVIDIA just projected $1,300,000,000,000 of hyperscaler CapEx next year.

这笔钱总得有个出处，而且数字 eventually 会变得太大，我们最终会面临资金方面的限制。

That's gonna come from somewhere, and eventually the numbers get kind of too big, and we're going to have some capital constraints.

所以我认为，你提到的那些股票里，已经反映了不少不同的制约因素。

So we're seeing a lot of different constraints, I believe, priced into some of the stocks you mentioned.

现在我们还得担心怎么搞定规划委员会，这也是个限制因素。

And now we have to worry about getting past zoning boards as well as another constraint.

所以行业里确实有不少限制条件。我觉得吧，像你说的这种爆发式增长，我是不太看好能再来了。比如Lou Whiteman这家公司，我觉得很难再从现在的位置翻十倍，原因就在这儿。

So there's a, there are a lot of constraints in the industry And I think, yes, the explosive gains, I don't think we're going to see, you know, Lou Whiteman, for example, 10x again from here, because of this.

对于这类基础设施公司来说，我认为最猛的那波涨幅已经过去了。

I think some of the big gains are behind us when it comes to some of these infrastructure companies.

不过我也觉得，它们还没见到历史最高价呢，就举个例子来说。

But I don't think that the, you know, we've seen them hit their all time highs yet, for example.

嗯，我们有一位听众在AI基础设施股票上亏了不少。

Well, one of our listeners is down big on an AI infrastructure stock.

休息之后，我们会从听众来信中选取一个问题来回答。

And after the break, we're going to take a question from them from our mailback.

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欢迎回到Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

简单提一下，我们希望您也能参与对话，所以您可以发送问题到podcastfool.com，给我们这里的任何嘉宾。

In a quick note, we wanna make you part of the conversation so you can send in questions to podcastfool dot com for any of our contributors here.

如果问题够有趣，够简短，能在节目中读出来，并且您记得我们不提供个性化投资建议，那我们很乐意采纳。

We would love to take it if it's foolish, if it's short enough to read on air, and if you keep in mind that we don't give personalized investing advice.

如果您符合这些条件，欢迎发邮件到podcast@fool.com，podcast@fool.com。

And if you can check those boxes, then we'd love for you to email us at podcast@fool.com, podcast@fool.com.

今天的问题来自一位名叫Ben的听众。

And today's question comes from a listener named Ben.

Ben说他重仓了一只小盘AI基础设施公司，目前面临不小的浮亏。

And Ben says that they heavily invested in a small cap AI infrastructure company and are currently sitting on a substantial unrealized loss.

说白了，就是买完股票后价格跌了不少。

In other words, bought the stock and it went down pretty big.

不过我依然非常看好这个逻辑，如果现在按当前价位，我会投入同样的金额。

Despite that, I strongly believe the thesis and would invest the same amount at today's price.

我的大胆预测是，到2030年它有可能实现10到15倍的回报。

My bold case is that it could potentially return 10 to 15 x by 2030.

或者，你可以考虑同生态里一家规模更大、更成熟的公司，我觉得它在两到三年内实现两到三倍收益的可能性相对更高。

Alternatively, there's a much larger, established company in the same ecosystem that I view as a relatively safer two to three x over the same timeframe.

那么，面对已经承受较大亏损的情况，投资者该如何权衡这种高不确定性的潜在大幅回报与成熟公司更高的确定性呢？

So how should investors think about waiting that kind of asymmetric upside against the greater certainty of the established company, especially when already sitting on a large loss?

咱们先理清一下，这个问题到底在问什么？

And as guys, if I try to just think through this question, what's really being asked?

这其实更多是关于投资组合构建的问题。

This is almost more a question about portfolio construction.

你有一个风险更高、上行空间更大的小盘股，已经处于未实现亏损状态，还有一个更安全、上行空间没那么大的大盘股？

You have a riskier, higher upside, small cap company already sitting on the unrealized loss, a safer, less big upside from from this other larger stock?

那我们该怎么权衡呢？

And so how do we weigh that?

对。

Yeah.

所以不是要针对本，因为他的邮件并不表示这对他造成了影响，但我觉得首先想到的是沉没成本谬误。

So not to pick on Ben because his email doesn't imply that this is hitting him, I think it is the first thing I think of this is the sunk cost fallacy.

我觉得我们在处理这些事情时都应该考虑到这一点。

And I think it's something we should all think about with these things.

沉没成本谬误是指我们因为已经投入了资源而继续坚持某件事，即使放弃更明智。

Sunk cost fallacy is our habit of staying committed to something because we've sunk resources into it, even if quitting is smarter.

在这种情况下，我们已经投入了这么多，亏了很多，所以更难止损。

In this case, you know, we have invested all of this, we're down big, so it's harder to cut our losses.

我们应该始终基于当前和未来的最佳判断来做决定。

We should always make decisions based on our best judgment right now going forward.

但当你持有大额未实现亏损时，你会特别想回本。

But when you're holding on a large unrealized loss, there is a huge urge to I I just gotta get back to even.

所以我觉得这确实会影响你的判断，就像你现在看这个，很难直接比较。

So I do think that plays into here kinda some, as you're looking at this, it's hard to say apples to apples today.

但回到那个问题，投资者应该如何看待稳健增长和高风险高回报？

But to that question, how should investors think about slow and steady versus high risk, high reward?

答案可能有点无聊。

It's a boring answer.

我真的觉得这取决于个人，他们的风险承受能力、目标等等。

I really do think it boils down to the individual, their risk tolerance, their goals, things like that.

对我来说，我可能会两者都做。

My answer for me is I'd probably do both.

我可能会把60%的资金投到成熟公司，剩下的投到更投机性的，这样既能获得稳定回报，又有潜在上涨空间。

I'd probably say put 60% of the funds in an established company and the rest into a more speculative so I get sort of the steady returns plus potential upside.

但我真的觉得这取决于具体情况和个人，以及什么能让你晚上睡得安稳。

But I I really do think it depends on the circumstances and the individual and kind of what allows you to sleep at night.

另外，想跟听众朋友们说明一下，Ben 刚才并没有透露这两家公司的名字。

And just for our listeners, I I wanna point out that Ben did not share the names of the two companies here.

所以 Lou 并不是在针对这两家公司做选择，只是泛泛地说，如果我是你，我会怎么考虑这个问题。

So Lou is not making a pick on either of those, just kind of generally saying, hey, this is how I would think about it if I was thinking through it like you are.

不过 Matt，你有什么要补充的吗？

But Matt, what do you have to add here?

对。

Yeah.

关于沉没成本谬误这个问题，Ben 已经通过了那个你必须要问自己的核心测试。

So on the on the sunk cost fallacy thing, Ben passed the test on on the the main question you have to ask yourself.

他问自己，如果今天这个价格，他还会不会继续买入。

So he asked himself if he would buy more at today's price.

他明确说了，答案是肯定的。

And he specifically said that that answer is yes.

今天这个价格，我还会继续投。

I would invest more at today's price.

这基本上就是卢刚才说的重点。

And that's kind of the big kind of thing that Lou was talking about.

你账面上的未实现亏损，跟任何面向未来的投资决策都没关系，不管是卖出还是加仓。

The unrealized loss that you have is irrelevant to any forward looking investment decisions, whether that is to exit or to buy more.

市场根本不知道也不在乎你的成本价是多少。

The market doesn't know or care what your cost basis is.

这话听起来有点傻，但很多投资者潜意识里就是按成本价来投资的。

That sounds silly to say, but many investors kind of subconsciously invest like it does.

所以卢说的那些，关于稳健型选手和高风险候选人的对比，我大体上同意。

So I mostly agree with Lou about what he said with, you know, the steady steady player versus the high risk candidate.

我想指出的是，他说即使是那个稳健型的，到2030年也可能有两到三倍的上涨空间。

I I'd point out that, you know, he said, I see a two, two to three extra turn potential by 2030 for even the slow and steady one.

这意味着到2030年，年化回报率在17%到29%之间。

That translates to 17% to 29% annualized returns through 2030.

那几乎肯定还是能跑赢市场的。

That would still almost certainly be a market beater.

所以在这种情况下，慢而稳并不意味着无聊。

So slow and steady in this case doesn't mean boring.

这意味着它仍然有可能跑赢市场。

It means that you see it has potential to beat the market still.

所以不要害怕把大部分资金投入到你认为更安全的投资上。

So don't be afraid to put the majority into what you consider the safer play.

如果你对趋势的方向判断正确，并且以合理的估值买入，那么两者中更安全的那一个的回报潜力也可能相当可观。

If you're directionally right on the trend and buy it at a reasonable valuation, the return potential from the safer of the two could still be pretty enormous.

对。

Yeah.

而且，就像你说的，跑赢市场确实很难。

And I mean, as you say, I mean, beating the market is hard to do.

如果有一个安全的股票选项，那可能不是个坏主意。

And if there's an option with a safe stock, I mean, that might not be a bad idea.

所以感谢你们两位在这里发表意见。

So thanks to both of you for weighing in here.

和往常一样，节目里提到的人可能对他们讨论的股票有兴趣，而Motley Fool也可能有正式的推荐或不推荐。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以不要仅仅根据你听到的内容就买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

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All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告是赞助内容，仅供参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

要查看我们的完整广告披露，请查看我们的节目笔记。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢我们的制作人Bart Shannon在幕后，以及Motley Fool团队的其他成员。

Thanks to our producer Bart Shannon behind the glass and the rest of The Motley Fool team.

代表Matt、Lou和我自己，非常感谢你们今天收听我们的节目，我们下次再见。

For Matt, Lou, and myself, thank you so much for listening to our show today, and we will see you again next time.