黄仁勋的AI资本支出脉搏检查

英伟达CEO刚刚让投资者们吃了一惊。

Nvidia CEO just startled investors.

Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资节目现在开始。

Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.

欢迎收听Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资节目。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是今天的主持人Quast，今天和我一起的是嘉宾Jason Hall和Matt Frankel，他们都是来替班常驻嘉宾的。

I'm your host today, Quast, and I'm joined by guests Jason Hall and Matt Frankel, all subbing in for the regulars today.

但我们想先快速聊聊本周最大的新闻，那就是英伟达，一家市值超过五万亿美元的公司，在周三下午公布了财报。

But we wanna go ahead and quickly get to the biggest news of the week, and that was Nvidia, a more than $5,000,000,000,000 company reporting its financial results on Wednesday afternoon.

对我来说，这与其说是财报，不如说是一次宏观经济脉搏的检查。

And for me, this was as much as a macroeconomic pulse check of as much as anything.

英伟达CEO黄仁勋出来表示，预计AI的资本支出将继续增加。

Nvidia CEO, Jensen Huang, coming out and saying that CapEx spending for AI is expected to continue to go up.

如果看2025年，前五大超大规模云服务商。

If you look at 2025, the top five hyperscalers.

这些大公司，比如谷歌和Meta。

So these are big businesses such as Google and Meta.

这些公司2025年的资本支出大约是5000亿美元。

These companies spending roughly 500,000,000,000 in CapEx in 2025.

今年预计在8000亿左右，有些公司已经开始出现自由现金流为负的情况。

For this year, looking at around 800,000,000,000, and some of these companies are starting to go free cash flow negative.

所以你会开始想，也许AI资本支出快要见顶了。

And so you start to think maybe we're reaching a peak with AI CapEx.

但黄仁勋说，明年仅前五家公司就会花掉1.3万亿美元。

But Jensen Huang's saying 1,300,000,000,000 is what he expects to be spent next year just by the top five.

如果按这些假设来算，那同比增长就是60%。

That's a 60% year over year jump if we take these assumptions.

Matt，你刚才提到，要说谁最了解市场动态，那非英伟达莫属，它基本上在统筹全局。

Matt, you're kind of pointing out here that Nvidia, if anyone has a pulse on what is happening, I mean, it's really kind of coordinating everything.

黄仁勋作为CEO，我最欣赏他的一点就是，他并不追求交出最漂亮的季度业绩。

Jensen Huang, one of my favorite things about him as a CEO is he's not trying to deliver the best quarterly results.

他们确实交出了最好的季度业绩，但那不是他的首要目标。

They are delivering the best quarterly results, but that's not his primary focus.

他想推动AI的建设，你懂的，他想引导AI的发展。

He wants build out the you know, he wants to to kind of shepherd the AI build out.

我的意思是，想想我们在其他节目里聊过的那些循环交易和类似的事情。

And what I mean by that is think of all and we've talked on other shows about the circular deals and and things like that going on in AI.

英伟达真的是这一切的中心。

I mean, in and Nvidia is really at the center of it all.

比如，他们投资了所有前沿AI实验室。

Like, they're investing in all the Frontier AI labs.

他们和阿波罗、贝莱德、黑石、布鲁克菲尔德、高盛、KKR有融资合作，筹集超过5000亿美元的第三方资金，用来投资AI领域的各个细枝末节。

They're they have financing partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, KKR to raise over $500,000,000,000 of third party capital to to really just invest in all of the little bits and pieces of what's going on.

所以确实存在一些循环融资，我对这种被报道为销售增长的方式有意见。

So there is some circular financing, and I have an issue with how that's being reported as sales growth.

比如说，如果我付给杰森100美元让他教我点东西，然后他又给我100美元让我教他点东西，那我们真的各自赚了100美元吗？

If, you know, if if I pay Jason a $100 to teach me something and he gives me the $100 to teach him something, did we each really make a $100?

不是。

No.

按照GAAP会计准则，这些合并实体加起来会有200美元的收入，尽管实际上只是100美元在来回转。

According to GAAP accounting, that would be $200 in revenue by those combined entities even though it was just a $100 getting passed back and forth.

这就是我们现在在AI领域看到的情况。

That's what we're seeing in the AI space right now.

但同时，这确实帮助我们双方建立业务，进行我们所需的研究。

But at the same time, that does help both of us establish our business, do the research we need.

这确实有一些实际的好处。

There is some tangible benefit to that.

你知道，英伟达确实在引领这一切，这是一个非常有趣的动态，但不仅仅是这个季度的事。

You know, Nvidia's really leading all that, and and it's a really interesting dynamic, but they're it's not just about this quarter.

他们确实在推动这1.3万亿美元的建设，不是完全靠他们自己，但他们确实在推动。

They're really driving that $1,300,000,000,000 build out all by them not all by themselves, but they're they're helping to drive that.

我觉得值得注意的是，即使是像黄仁勋这样的人，可能也不完全清楚这个周期会如何发展。

I think it's important to note that even somebody like Jensen Huang probably doesn't really know exactly how this cycle is going to to play out.

他们会更早得到信息。

They're gonna get information sooner.

他们知道自己的销售率是多少。

They know what their sales rates are.

他们知道订单的进来情况。

They know what the orders looking like are coming in.

他们知道像台积电这样的合作伙伴能多快完成制造。

They know how quickly their partners like Taiwan Semi can actually do the manufacturing.

但我觉得黄仁勋确实在积极拥抱这种乐观情绪，而且数据也支持这一点，对吧？

But but I think Wong is really leading in leaning into the like the optimism and the numbers back it up, right?

即使有一定程度的炒作。

Even if there is a certain degree of hype.

但故事中可能没被足够关注的部分，不是Alphabet和Meta最近，以及之前的甲骨文，都转为产生负自由现金流。

But the part of the story that may not be getting enough attention isn't that Alphabet and Meta recently and Oracle before that have flipped over to generating negative free cash.

而是他们在核心业务持续产生大量正经营现金流的同时，还在这么做。

It's that they're doing it even as their core businesses just continue to pump out gobs and gobs of positive operating cash.

这里有个惊人的数字。

Here's a here's a crazy number.

过去四个季度，Meta、Alphabet、亚马逊、微软和甲骨文，这五家是最大的超大规模云服务商。

Over the past four quarters, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle, those are the top five hyperscalers.

它们总共产生了近7000亿美元的运营现金流。

They've generated almost $700,000,000,000 in operating cash flow.

所以，有了这个背景，我们之前讨论的那个巨额资本支出数字，其实并没有看起来那么吓人。

So maybe with that context, that big CapEx number we're talking about isn't really as scary as it seems.

当然，运营现金流和自由现金流的区别在于，运营现金流是业务本身产生的，而自由现金流则反映了它在基础设施上的投资，也就是我们刚才讨论的内容。

And, of course, the difference between the operating cash flow and the free cash flow, the operating cash flow is what the business is producing, and the free cash flow reflects what it is investing in infrastructure, what we're talking about right here.

所以，这就是我们强调的差距。

So that's really the the delta that we're highlighting.

不过，我想在这里多说一点。

But, you know, I just wanna talk a little bit here.

看起来投资者已经降低了预期，因为你看像英伟达这样规模的企业，年增长率达到100%，但远期市盈率只有24倍。

It seems like investors have kind of lowered expectations here because you look at a business of Nvidia's scale growing a 100% year over year, trading at only 24 times its forward earnings.

马特，投资者们现在可能在担心些什么呢？

Matt, what what are what are investors a little bit pessimistic about here perhaps?

其实不是悲观。

Well, it's not that they're pessimistic.

而是到了某个阶段，数字就变得太大了。

It's at some point, the numbers just get too big.

就像沃伦·巴菲特说的，伯克希尔·哈撒韦未来五十年的表现不会比前五十年好。

It's the same reason why, you know, Warren Buffett said Berkshire Hathaway's next fifty years aren't gonna be as good as its first fifty years.

因为从一万亿美元的基数出发，要实现那么长时间的年化20%回报率，数学上根本说不通。

It's because the math just doesn't work for 20% annualized returns for that long from a $1,000,000,000,000 base.

这里也是同样的道理。

The same thing applies here.

要么增长，要么定价权，或者两者，最终都得有所让步。

Either growth, pricing power, or both will have to give at some point.

你看这个季度同比增长了106%。

You a 106% growth year over year in this latest quarter.

他们预计明年增长70%。

They're projecting 70% growth next year.

那是个很大的正面惊喜。

That was a big positive surprise.

但70%的增长率相对于106%来说，仍然是放缓的，这点值得指出。

But 70% from a hundred and six is still a deceleration, it's worth pointing out.

所以市场已经把这个因素考虑进去了。

So the market is pricing that in.

它不可能明年增长70%，后年再增长70%，然后一直这样下去。

It's not gonna grow by 70% next year, then another 70% next year, and so on and so on.

按照这个速度，几年内就会超过美国的GDP。

At some point, it would exceed US GDP within a few years, at that rate.

所以这种情况不可能永远持续，而市场真正在定价的就是这个。

So it can't happen forever, and that's what the market's really pricing in.

所以，用传统的指标比如远期市盈率来评估英伟达确实很难，因为总有一天它会达到一个临界点。

So don't it's really tough evaluate Nvidia on traditional metrics like forward PE ratios because at some point, it's going to have to hit a hit a threshold.

好，我们现在稍微聊一下另一家半导体公司。顺便提一下，刚才说到黄仁勋，他对一家叫Marvell的公司评价很高，股票代码是MRVL。

Well, let's turn a little bit now to another semiconductor company that by the way, speaking of Jensen Huang, he's spoken very highly about this company called Marvell, ticker symbol MRVL.

这家公司市值大约两千亿美元。

This is a roughly $200,000,000,000 company.

黄仁勋说它未来可能价值一万亿美元，但这次财报的重点不是它本季度实现了37%的增长，尽管确实如此。

Huang says it could be worth a trillion someday, but this stock reporting and the the big thing here is not that it reported 37% growth for the quarter, even though it did.

明年它预计还会继续增长。

For next year, it's looking to grow.

它把增长预期从45%上调到了50%。

It raised its guidance from 45% growth to 50% growth.

所以今年剩余时间和明年都会加速增长。

So an acceleration into the rest of this year and into next year.

这似乎印证了黄仁勋的说法，资本支出还会进一步增加，但市场似乎不太买账，因为Marvell的股价今天小幅下跌。

That would seem to corroborate a little bit here what Jensen Huang is saying that CapEx spending is going to pick up even more, but the the market doesn't seem to to like this because Marvell stock is down a little bit today.

是的，这周早些时候我其实花了很多时间深入研究Marvell的业务。

Yeah, I've spent actually most of the early part of this week doing a deep dive into Marvell's business.

令人惊叹的是，这家看似小众的公司——而且它确实相对小众——竟然为自己定位了一个巨大的、巨大的机会。

And it's stunning how this seemingly niche company and it is relatively niche, is just positioned itself for a massive, massive opportunity.

首席执行官马特·墨菲在过去十年里做得非常出色，他扭转了公司的局面，把它直接对准了它真正擅长的领域，并让它成为一些最重要客户不可或缺的伙伴，而这些客户恰好就是那些超大规模云服务商。

Matt Murphy is the CEO, he's done an extraordinary job over the past decade of turning the company around and just pointing it right at the sweet spot of both what it's really good at, and making it indispensable for some of its most important customers, which kind of kind of happened to be these hyperscalers.

而且，也许最重要的是，他们要么自己开发，要么收购了真正关键的技术，这些技术能够跟上数据中心数据量和速度增长那快得离谱的节奏。

And maybe most importantly, either developing or acquiring really critical technology that can keep up with the insanely fast pace of data volume and speed growth in the data center.

现在我们把视野放宽一点。

Now let's zoom out here.

如果说英伟达的服务器集群是大脑，或者其他CPU和GPU是大脑，那么Marvell的技术就像是数据中心的中枢神经系统。

If Nvidia's server clusters are the brains or other CPUs and GPUs are the brains, Marvell's technology is like the central nervous system of the data center.

这意味着它把大脑和身体的每个部分连接起来，无论离大脑有多近或多远，它还能把分布在不同地点的站点连接在一起。

That means it connects the brain to every part of the body, no matter how near or far from the brain that it is also interconnects distributed sites together.

所以，有些数据中心相隔数百英里。

So you have data centers that are hundreds of miles apart.

他们的技术在那里也很重要。

Their technology is important there.

但具体到机会的细节，去年他们围绕AI举办了一次投资者日，他们认为到2028年，加速计算的市场规模大约能达到2200亿美元。

But as to the specifics of the opportunity, last year, they did an Investor Day around AI, the short version of what they think is attainable is about a $220,000,000,000 market for accelerated compute by 2028.

他们认为自己能拿下其中25%的份额。

They think they can get 25% of that.

那就是554亿美元的收入。

That's a $55,400,000,000 revenue number.

作为参考，今年公司表示营收大概会在120亿美元左右。

For context, this year, the company's saying they're probably going to do about 12,000,000,000.

我觉得他们实际会做得更好，超过这个数。

I think they're going to do better more than that.

不过我们就假设他们能做到这个数。

But let's just say they do that.

这意味着大约三年内收入要翻四倍。

We're talking about increasing revenue fourfold in about three years.

如果能保持35%的营业利润率，我觉得他们可能还能做得更好。

Now, if it can maintain operating margins of 35%, I think they can probably do better than that.

不过咱们就按35%的基准来算吧。

But let's just go with a baseline of 35%.

那算下来会是什么情况？

What's the math look like?

一万亿的估值意味着大概是营业收入的50倍。

A trillion dollar vap valuation would mean about 50 times operating income.

这确实不便宜。

Now that's rich.

但如果增长真的能持续加速，那也不算离谱，尤其是现在这只股票的市盈率已经是那个倍数的两倍多了。

But if growth does keep accelerating from there, it's really not outlandish, especially the stock right now trades for more than double that same multiple.

嗯，黄仁勋并没有给出他认为能达到一万亿估值的时间表，所以这一点确实值得指出来。

Well, he he didn't Jensen Huang did not give a time frame when he thinks it's gonna hit a trillion dollar valuation, so that's one thing to to definitely point out.

另外我想指出，我们刚才提到了循环交易。

And I wanted to point out that, you know, we mentioned the circular deals just a minute ago.

Marvell和谷歌有一笔这样的交易，他们承诺给谷歌认股权证，可以购买最多120亿美元的公司股票，使他们成为最大的股东之一，但前提是谷歌要和他们有业务往来。

Marvell has one with Google, where where they pledged to give Google warrants to buy up to $12,000,000,000 of the company's stock, making them one of the largest shareholders, but only if Google is spending money with them.

要让所有这些认股权证生效，谷歌到2033年累计得花1200亿美元。

For all of those warrants to vest, Google has to spend a $120,000,000,000 cumulatively through 2033.

如果这是几笔交易中的第一笔，那么540亿到550亿美元的收入，说实话，可能只是个起点。

If that is the first of several deals, then 54 $55,000,000,000 in revenue, in it is could just be a starting point, honestly.

如果他们能和其他大型云服务商达成类似的交易，那他们就是在蚕食博通的芯片业务。

If they get deals like that with the other hyperscalers, they're cutting into Broadcom's chip business there.

可能还会有更多。

There could be a lot more.

这个预测并不离谱。

It's not an outlandish prediction.

我不知道我们还能看到这种巨大的估值倍数多久，因为到2033年，我想人工智能的建设速度会比现在慢。

I don't know how long we're gonna see these giant, you know, valuation multiples because in 2033, I have to imagine the AI build out is going slower than it is now.

就像我说的，数字会变得太大。

Like I said, the numbers are just gonna get too big.

我对从现在到五六年后的行业整体利润率压缩有些保留意见，但这仍然是一门相当不错的生意。

I have reservations when it comes to we're going to have some margin compression in the overall industry between now and five, six years from now, but it's still a pretty amazing business.

正如你所说，一个本质上算是小众的公司能达成这样的交易。

As you said, for essentially a niche company to be making these deals.

在这个市场机会上，他们确实是说到做到。

Putting their money where their mouth is when it comes to that market opportunity.

好吧，随着AI基础设施支出每年继续增加数百亿美元，即使增速在放缓，你完全可以相信我们会在Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资节目中继续讨论这个话题。

Well, with AI infrastructure spending continuing to go up by tens of billion dollars a year, even if it's a decelerating rate, you better believe we're going to be talking about it Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

但当我们回来时，我们要聊点别的。

But when we come back, we're gonna be talking about something else.

这将是网络安全领域的“神话时刻”。

It's gonna be called the Mythos moment in cybersecurity.

这里是Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资。

This is Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

欢迎回到Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资。

Welcome back to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

所以，Anthropic，这是面向消费者和企业的一流AI应用公司之一。

So Anthropic, this is one of the leading AI application companies for consumers and businesses.

四月份，它发布了一个叫Mythos的AI模型。

In April, it released something called the Mythos AI model.

这个模型的特点是能快速发现并利用软件中的漏洞。

And the thing about this was it could quickly find and exploit vulnerabilities in software.

它利用漏洞的速度比人类反应还快。

It could exploit them faster than humans could respond.

几个月后，美国政府实际上要求它暂停Mythos一段时间。

It a few months later, actually, the US government asked it to pause Mythos for a little while.

所以这算是个大事，让网络安全投资者慌了神，心想，糟糕。

And so this was kind of a big deal, and it kind of caused cybersecurity investors to panic thinking, oh, no.

威胁变得越来越严重了。

The the threats are getting much worse.

但CrowdStrike却说，Mythos其实对它的业务非常有利。

But for CrowdStrike, was saying that Mythos was actually great for its business.

而且，这周它公布了相关数据。

And, accordingly, this week, it reported numbers.

杰森，这确实是CrowdStrike非常出色的一季度。

And and Jason, this this was actually a really great quarter for CrowdStrike.

是的。

Yeah.

非常出色。

Was extraordinary.

关键是，这个季度业绩不错，超出了预期，但真正重要的是他们对业务增长重新加速的指引。

And the thing is, like, the the quarter was a good quarter, beat expectations, but it's really the guidance of of of the reacceleration of growth in the business.

这又是一个例子，一只被广泛认为估值过高的股票，在业绩超预期时仍然能继续上涨，甚至超过那些最高的预期。

And it's another example too of a stock that is widely considered extremely overvalued, can still go higher when the business reports great results that beat even those highest of expectations.

在我们录制的时候，股价已经回吐了部分涨幅，在28日上午晚些时候下跌了不少。

As we're recording this, shares have given back some of those gains are down a good bit late in the morning of the twenty eighth.

但CrowdStrike的股价本周仍然上涨了约10%，今年累计上涨了81%。

But CrowdStrike shares are still up like 10% for the week, and they're up 81% for the year.

主要的推动力还是那些对增长加速的预期。

The big driver is there's again, those expectations for accelerating growth.

公司预计年度经常性收入。

The company's calling for annual recurring revenue.

也就是说，到下一个季度末，ARR将比一年前增长约41%，然后继续增长。

So that's ARR to grow about 41% from where it was a year ago, by the by the end of next quarter, and then keep growing from there.

这是一家非常强势的企业，市场份额不断扩大，还让客户购买越来越多的工具。

This is a dominant dominant business keeps expanding its share of the market, and also signing its customers up for more and more tools.

根据最新数据，超过一半的客户使用了公司提供的近三十多个模块中的六个或更多。

At last count, more than half of its customers use six or more of the almost three dozen modules that the company offers.

目前它的交易价格大约是我对全年自由现金流预估的140倍。

It now does trade for around a 140 times my estimates for what their full year free cash flow is going to be.

但如果增长持续加速，我认为自由现金流利润率会大幅飙升。

But if growth keeps accelerating, I think free cash flow margin will explode higher.

而且这只股票可能会很快变得便宜很多，即使股价不跌，这得益于他们获得的经营杠杆和利润的爆发式增长。

And it's a stock that could get a lot cheaper really quickly without the stock price falling just based on the operating leverage that they would get and their profits exploding.

对。

Yeah.

CrowdStrike的财报非常亮眼，即使是在这个季度整个行业都大幅上调预期的背景下。

CrowdStrike's earnings were a blowout even in the context of all the beaten raises that we've seen from the industry this quarter.

我关注的重点数字是净新增年度经常性收入，增长率达到了51%，也就是说他们本季度新增的年度经常性收入比去年同期增加了51%。

The big number that I focused on, net new annual recurring revenue, that growth rate was 51%, meaning that their the the new annual recurring revenue they added this quarter was 51% greater than what they added in this quarter last year.

他们以前从来没有做到过，即使是在他们增长的最早期阶段。

They've never done that before, even when they were in the really early stages of their growth.

这是有史以来最高的净新增增长率。

That's the highest net new growth rate ever.

我要稍微反驳一下Jason，因为如果2020到2021年那段时间教会了我什么，而且Jason和我当时都积极投资，那就是估值总是至少有一点重要的。

I'm going to push back on Jason a little bit, because if the twenty twenty to twenty twenty one time frame taught me anything, and Jason and I were very active in investing in that time, it's that valuation always matters at least a little bit.

所以根据CrowdStrike自己设定的长期增长率目标，他们认为自己能够维持的增长率，目前股价大约是十年后销售额的七倍。

So based on CrowdStrike's own internal goals for long term their long term growth rate they feel they can sustain, the stock's trading about seven times the sales it will produce in a decade from now.

所以收入加速增长确实令人印象深刻，但在估值方面，我还是很难接受。

So revenue acceleration is impressive, but I still have a really tough time wrapping my head around this one valuation wise.

是的。

Yeah.

这一点我完全同意，没什么好反驳的。

I'm there's no pushback or argument for me on that.

它的估值确实非常高，高得离谱。

It is extremely, extremely richly valued.

只要它持续交出好成绩，这种情况就会一直存在。

As long as it keeps delivering, that's gonna be the case.

但我们都记得前年夏天那次宕机事件，一个小小的波折就能让大量市值蒸发。

But we all learned with the outage a couple of summers ago, one speed bump and a lot of a lot of value gets washed out.

我想回到这个关键点，因为正如Matt指出的，CrowdStrike创下了新增年度经常性收入的纪录，但这似乎并不是对所有网络安全公司都同样有利。

I wanna circle back to this Mythos moment because as Matt pointed out, this record net new annualized recurring revenue for CrowdStrike, but it doesn't seem to be a tailwind for all cybersecurity companies equally.

这周我们收到了SentinelOne、Okta和Rubrik的报告，特别是SentinelOne，增长率是21%，全年只有大约20%，所以略有放缓，尤其是相比去年的22%增长。

So we got reports this week from SentinelOne, Okta, Rubrik, and specifically with SentinelOne, you know, looking at 21% growth and only about 20% growth for the year, so slightly decelerating, especially compared to 22% growth last year.

现在放眼全局，我在想，为什么这对CrowdStrike是利好，但SentinelOne似乎没有享受到同样的增长动力呢，Matt？

I guess as I zoom out now, I'm just asking myself, why is this a tailwind for CrowdStrike, but SentinelOne doesn't seem to be seeing the same uplift here, Matt?

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，赢家就是赢家，像CrowdStrike这样的公司，它们已经盈利了，并且通过不断增长的现金流来资助AI建设。

I mean so the winners are are the winners like CrowdStrike, they're they're already profitable, they're already funding their AI build out through their expanding free cash flow.

SentinelOne，让我印象深刻的一点是，他们最近裁掉了8%的员工，不知道你还记不记得这个消息，他们明确表示要把省下来的成本投入到AI安全领域。

SentinelOne, one of the things that stood out to me is that they recently cut 8% of their workforce I don't know if you remember that news and they specifically said they were going to get the cost savings from that to invest in their AI security.

所以首先，CrowdStrike相比SentinelOne处于优势地位。

So it it's kinda like like CrowdStrike's at a position of strength here compared to SentinelOne, first of all.

而且CrowdStrike的新产品，比如Flex，也就是Falcon Flex，帮助他们赢得了比竞争对手更大、更长期的合同。

And CrowdStrike's newer products like Flex, it's help Falcon Flex is helping them win bigger, longer term deals than competitors.

他们的客户希望以更低的成本获得更好的结果，而CrowdStrike在这方面做得更好。

And their customers want better outcomes at lower cost, and CrowdStrike's delivering that better.

在最近一个季度，Falcon Flex带来的年度经常性收入同比增长了101%，这真是一个惊人的数字。

The the ARR coming from Falcon Flex grew by a 101% year over year in the latest quarter, talking about a blowout number.

所以他们确实处于优势地位。

So they're it's it's really They have a position of strength.

他们有先发优势。

They had a first mover advantage.

他们是一个原生AI平台。

They're an AI native platform.

他们是最初获得早期访问权的Mythos团队的一员，而且他们很好地利用了这一点。

They were part of the original Mythos team that got early access, and they've done a great job of capitalizing on that.

Jason，有没有什么表面之下的理由让我们对SentinelOne抱有希望，觉得它实际上比表面数字看起来要好一些？

Jason, is there any reason to hope here beneath the surface that SentinelOne is actually doing a little bit better than it looks on the headline number?

是的。

Yeah.

有几件事。

A couple of things.

今年股价上涨了42%。

The stock's up 42% this year.

业务增长得很好。

The business is growing very well.

但问题是，如果你拿它和CrowdStrike比较——你应该这么做，因为他们是直接竞争对手，争夺同样的客户——那就会显得很难看。

And the the the thing is that the context of comparing it to CrowdStrike, which you should, because they're competitors, like direct competitors over the same customers, makes it hard.

CrowdStrike投下的阴影太大了。

It's a giant shadow CrowdStrike cast.

我们刚才提到的CrowdStrike那个新增年度经常性收入数字，简直惊人。

That net new ARR number that we're talking about from CrowdStrike, that is an incredible number.

这比SentinelOne整个业务还大，对吧？

It's bigger than SentinelOne's entire business, right?

他们每个季度新增的业务量就超过了SentinelOne的全部业务。

Just the new business they're acquiring every quarter is bigger than SentinelOne's entire business.

所以，这真的能说明问题。

So that I mean, that should really contextualize it.

但我觉得更重要的是，如果你仔细看看SentinelOne，深入了解一下它的增长点，那真的非常吸引人。

But I think the thing that matters a lot is, if you look at, you know, kind of peel back the layers pop pop open the hood for SentinelOne, where it's growing, is really, really compelling.

大约一年半前，CEO兼创始人Tomer Weingarten和我以及我的同事Tim Byers坐下来聊过。

CEO founder, Tomer Weingarten sat down with me and fellow fool, Tim Byers, about a year and a half ago.

他当时对我们说，听着，AI是企业面临的最大威胁，也是我们面前最大的机遇，远远超过其他任何东西。

And he told us, he's like, look, guys, AI is the most important biggest threat to the enterprise and the biggest opportunity that we have in front of us by far.

再看看他们在非端点领域的增长情况。

And you look at where they're growing non endpoint.

再说一次，端点安全算是他们业务的核心产品。

So again, thinking about endpoint, that's like a core offering for for their business.

而对CrowdStrike来说，非端点产品现在占SentinelOne年度经常性收入的一半以上。

And for CrowdStrike, non endpoint offerings now make up more than half of SentinelOne's ARR.

所以即使CrowdStrike占据主导地位，SentinelOne的增长仍在加速。

So even as CrowdStrike is dominating their SentinelOne's growth is accelerating.

他们的AI安全业务实现了三位数增长，云和数据业务也在加速增长。

Its AI security business grew by triple digits, cloud and data are accelerating growth.

所以我一直说，我认为总的来说，网络安全领域会有很多赢家。

So I've been saying for a while that I believe broadly, there's going to be a lot of winners in cybersecurity.

而且我确实认为，这个市场足够大，像SentinelOne这样的公司，以及程度稍轻的Okta，在不同的业务领域，因为需求不同，都能在这个巨大的机遇浪潮中赢得市场份额。

And I do think that the just the space is big enough for companies like SentinelOne, and to a lesser degree, Okta, in a different business because there's different needs to win share in this massive tailwind of opportunity.

对。

Yeah.

说到值得关注的趋势，我觉得网络安全的重要性排在前几位。

When it comes to trends to pay attention to, I can think a few as important as cybersecurity.

节目回来之后，我们要聊迪克体育用品，它经历了多年来最糟糕的一个交易日。

When we come back, Dick's Sporting Goods had its worst trading day in years.

您正在收听的是《Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资》。

You're listening to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

欢迎回到《Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资》。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

你知道吗，我很喜欢那些冷门的节日，今天正好是“国家樱桃酥饼日”。

You know, I am a fan of obscure holidays, and today is national cherry turnover day.

可不是随便什么酥饼，所以今天别去买苹果酥饼。

Not not just any turnover, so don't go get an Apple turnover today.

今天要吃樱桃酥饼。

It is cherry turnover today.

我想着在节目里稍微庆祝一下，你看，樱桃红，就像下跌的股票图表一样。

And I thought for the show, could celebrate a little bit, you know, cherry red like a down stock chart.

Turnover听起来有点像turn around。

Turnover kind of sounds like turn around.

所以在国家樱桃酥饼日，我们来聊聊一些下跌且需要扭转局面的股票。

So let's talk about some stocks that are down and in need of a turnaround on National Cherry Turnover Day.

我想从这里开始。

And I want to start here.

我基本上会给你抛出一只股票。

I'm basically going to throw you a stock.

你来判断这家公司能不能扭转局面。

You're going to make your case whether the company can turn it around or not.

我们先从PayPal开始。

So let's start with PayPal.

你知道，PayPal是一个数字金融平台，让人们和企业可以转账、在网站上结账，甚至在某些情况下幕后操作，它还拥有Venmo。

You know, PayPal, this is a digital financial platform that allows people and businesses to send money, check out on websites, even behind the scenes in some cases, it owns Venmo.

PayPal今天下跌，因为据报道Stripe撤回了对它的收购要约。

PayPal is down today after Stripe reportedly pulling its bid for the company.

今年它一直在跌，而且比2021年的历史高点跌了超过80%。

It's down for the year, and it's down more than 80% from its all time high way back in 2021.

马特，你先来。

Matt, you're gonna go first here.

这算不算一个可能扭转局面的候选？

Is this a candidate for a turnaround?

不算。

No.

PayPal短期内不可能回到2021年的高点。

PayPal is not going to retake its 2021 high anytime soon.

但我可以说，它是你接下来要提的三家公司里，扭转故事最有力的一个。

But I can make the case that this is the strongest turnaround story of the three that you're that you're gonna mention here.

所以，我的意思是，新任CEO恩里克·洛拉斯正在推行一些削减成本的措施。

So, I mean, The new CEO, Enrique Loras, is putting in some cost reduction measures.

他专注于业务中潜力最大的领域，比如Venmo和先买后付。

He's focusing on the highest potential areas of the business, like Venmo, buy now, pay later.

已经开始见效了。

It's starting to pay off.

第二季度，每股收益超出了预期。

In the second quarter, EPS beat the estimate.

营收同比增长了5%，说实话，考虑到PayPal过去几年的表现，这已经相当不错了。

The revenue rose 5% year over year, which, honestly, given PayPal's last few years, pretty strong.

用Venmo付款表现非常好。

Pay with Venmo did really well.

先买后付也做得很好。

Buy now, pay later did really well.

他们长期目标是最终实现15亿美元的年化运营成本节省。

The long term savings, they're targeting $1,500,000,000 eventually in annual run rate savings.

目前已经完成了4亿美元。

They're already at $400,000,000 of that.

自由现金流也很强劲。

Free cash flow is strong.

他们正在大量回购股票。

They're buying back stock hand over fist.

他们说品牌结账产品已经稳定下来，这曾是投资者的一大担忧。

They said the branded checkout product has stabilized, which was a big concern of investors.

所以即使没有Stripe的交易，现在也有可能，我认为这是这里最有力的转型案例。

So even without the Stripe deal, a possibility now, I think this is the strongest turnaround case here.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得PayPal，我甚至认为，你几乎可以说转型已经在发生了。

I I think PayPal like, I don't even I think maybe you could almost say the turnaround is already happening.

Matt提到的那些数字。

The numbers that Matt talked about.

这家公司一直产生大量的现金流。

This is a business that has always generated tons and tons of cash flow.

它的现金生成能力非常强。

It's incredibly cash generative.

其实，我的意思是，它就是一头现金奶牛。

Actually, I mean, it's a cash cow.

我觉得真正发生的是，投资者已经改变了对这家公司的预期，不再期望它应该以更高的速度增长、抢占市场份额、扩大利润率。

I think really what's happened is investors have turned around their expectations of the business from a company that should be growing at much higher rates, taking share, expanding its margins.

而且，你知道，我们很多人被现实狠狠打脸，意识到这是一场苦战，是一个极其极其竞争激烈的行业，有很多大玩家会为了市场份额拼得你死我活。

And, you know, there's a lot of us that have just been slapped in the face to the reality that it is a grind, it is a tough, extremely, extremely competitive business with a lot of big players that will fight over over their market share.

而且我觉得，就像我之前在播客里说过的，虽然我不喜欢恩里克·洛里斯从董事会主席变成CEO的方式，也不喜欢他取代亚历克斯·克里斯时那种突然的做法，但这家公司确实可能需要一个CEO，他的背景更像是那种在艰难的商品驱动型行业里只能接受价格、无法建立巨大护城河的经营者，你必须是一个非常自律的运营者，做好基本功，把业务的基础打牢。

And I think as and I've talked about this before on the podcast, as much as I didn't like the way things went down with Enrique Loris moving from the board chair to the CEO seat, and the abrupt way that happened with Alex Chris, who he replaced, the business did need maybe a CEO, whose background was more about being like just a price taker in a tough commodity driven business where you can't really create huge moats, you just have to be a really disciplined operator, good blocking and tackling just the fundamentals of your business.

然后做一些聪明的事情，比如当股价下跌时，多买一些股票，用你产生的额外自由现金流来创造价值，而不是试图去购买市场份额。

And do smart things like when your share price is down, buy more shares, take that extra free cash flow that you generate and create value that way, instead of trying to buy market share.

而且我确实认为，只要有合适的空间和合适的预期，投资者在PayPal上完全可以做得很好，他们并不真的需要扭转这家公司。

And I do think that with the right x space, the right expectations, investors can do perfectly fine in PayPal, and they don't really have to turn the business around.

他们只需要让它做自己就好。

They just have to let it be what it is.

所以，杰森和马特在PayPal的转型潜力上有一点共识。

So a little bit of consensus here from Jason and Matt on the turnaround potential for PayPal.

我们换个话题，这个可能会有点分歧。

Let's move to another one that might be able to divide a little bit.

就是AppLovin。

So this is AppLovin.

AppLovin可能没有PayPal那么有名。

Now AppLovin is not as well known as PayPal.

它主要是一个移动广告平台，主要用在手机游戏上，但现在也在拓展其他业务。

This is a mobile advertising platform primarily used for mobile gaming apps, but is expanding into other things.

其实这家公司规模很大。

This is actually a huge company.

大家可能没意识到，它的市值有1120亿美元。

I don't think people realize it's $112,000,000,000 market cap.

而且这还是经历了艰难的一个月，跌了大概20%，今年整体跌了约50%。

And that is after it's it's actually having a rough month down about 20% and a rough year down about 50%.

Jason，你先来聊聊AppLovin吧。

So Jason, you're gonna kick it off here with AppLovin.

你觉得这是不是樱桃翻身日的一个翻身候选股？

Do do you think that this is a turnaround candidate for Cherry Turnover Day?

我觉得AppLovin业务的核心在于顺风因素。

I think the core part of AppLovin's business that really matters is the tailwinds.

这和PayPal的情况有点不同。

And it's a little bit of a different situation than PayPal.

PayPal的交易增长机会不是特别高速增长，但它是一个巨大的行业。

The PayPal, the growth opportunities for transactions is not super duper high growth, it's a gigantic industry.

如果你能抢占市场份额，你的增长率就能不错。

And if you can take share, your growth rates can be good.

但AppLovin的关键在于数字广告和整个广告市场的顺风非常有利，越来越多的钱持续投入其中。

But the key for AppLovin is the tailwinds around digital advertisements and that entire ad market are very favorable, and more and more money continues to be spent there.

所以这是一个增长的市场，如果你能继续获得好的安装率，扩大你的份额，甚至只是保持你的份额，那你就能增长得很好。我觉得影响它业务的因素有一些周期性。

So that's a market that is growing, if you can just continue to, you know, get good attach rates and grow your share of it, and just maintain your share honestly, then you can grow well, I think the things that are affecting its business, there's a little bit of cyclicality.

但同样，竞争也非常激烈，有那些封闭生态系统的巨头在主导这个领域。

But it's also, again, highly competitive, you've got the walled gardens that are kind of dominating the space.

AppLovin有一些良好的合作关系，而且根基比较稳固。

AppLovin has some good relationships and is pretty well established.

但他们确实需要继续维持市场份额，并顺利度过这些周期。

But they really just need to continue to maintain share and get through the cycles.

而且我觉得，这很大程度上和几年前PayPal的情况类似，2021年那会儿，我们还在疫情中，一切似乎都在转向线上。

And I think as much as anything, was a little bit of kind of the same story with with PayPal a few years ago, 2021, we're still coming through the pandemic, everything was seemingly moving online.

当时感觉PayPal会越来越深入地融入我们做所有事情的方式中。

And it seemed that it was just going to be more and more of like, PayPal was going to be just right in the middle of how we did everything.

当时有一种想法，认为我们看到的AppLovin的爆发式增长会持续下去。

There was this idea that the explosive growth that we saw for AppLovin was going to continue.

增长率其实一直还不错。

And the growth rates have been fine.

但到了某个时候，当你为完美定价，而实际结果并不完美时，你的股价就不再会按完美来定价了。

But at some point, when your price for perfection and your results aren't perfect, your stock prices, your stock is no longer going to be priced for perfection.

我觉得这就是那里发生的大部分情况。

I think that's a lot of what's happened there.

你看，我觉得AppLovin是这三家里最弱的转型候选。

See, I think AppLovin is the weakest turnaround candidate of the three.

我是说，Jason说得对，但是

I mean, Jason's right, but

对。

Yeah.

我同意你的看法，Matt。

It's I agree with you, Matt.

让我这么说吧。

Let me say that.

我同意你。

I agree with you.

而且这只股票在很多方面也很有争议。

It's also a highly controversial stock in a lot of ways.

它一直是很多做空攻击的目标，很多做空报告说它用欺骗手段未经用户同意就把应用装到人家手机上，还有很多越界的行为。

It's been the target of a lot of short attacks, a lot of short reports saying the deceptive practices with putting apps on people's phones without asking them first and and just a lot of kinda stepping over the line.

我觉得还有一些调查正在进行中。

I think there's still some ongoing investigations

确实有。

There is.

跟美国证券交易委员会有关的。

With the SEC.

而且这里有很多监管风险，我不喜欢投资有监管风险的东西。

And there's a lot of regulatory risk here, and I don't like investing in regulatory risk.

我就是不喜欢。

I just don't.

这通常是我会避开的东西。

It's it's generally something I avoid.

在我的投资组合里，有两类东西我会避开。

There's two things I avoid in my portfolio.

就是会计违规和监管风险，而AppLovin绝对属于监管风险那一类。

It's accounting irregularities and regulatory risk, and AppLovin is definitely on the regulatory side of that.

所以这只股票短期内不会出现在我的投资组合里。

So it it's a stock that you're not gonna find in my portfolio anytime soon.

好，那我们换个话题，聊聊另一家没那么受关注的公司——Sterling Infrastructure。

Well, let's turn to another company that draws a little bit less scrutiny, and that is Sterling Infrastructure.

这是一家建筑公司，在工地上做很多重活。

This is a construction company that does a lot of heavy work on on sites.

它现在最大的业务是数据中心，主要是为公用事业公司和像亚马逊、Meta这样的大客户进场做准备。

It's boom right now is data centers and really just getting it ready for the utilities to come in and big customers such as Amazon and Meta.

但这只股票今年涨了60%，不过从年内高点已经跌了50%。

But this stock is actually up 60% for the year, but it's down 50% from its yearly highs.

那么，Matt，Sterling Infrastructure有没有可能迎来转机？

And so, Matt, is Sterling Infrastructure a chance for a turnaround?

Sterling Infrastructure是众多AI卖铲人概念股之一，这些公司本季度业绩超预期并上调指引，但股价随后下跌。

Sterling Infrastructure is one of many AI picks and shovels plays that beat and raised for the quarter and then went down.

这也正是英伟达和CrowdStrike的财报显得如此出色的原因。

That's also what makes Nvidia and CrowdStrike's earnings so exceptional.

它们是个例外。

They were the exception to that rule.

它们的季度业绩非常出色。

Their quarter was excellent.

它们的营收同比增长了90%。

Their revenue growth was 90% year over year.

净利润增长得更快。

Net income grew even faster.

电子基础设施这个跟数据中心相关的板块，营收同比几乎翻了三倍。

E infrastructure, which is the segment that has to do with data centers, that almost tripled year over year revenue wise.

它们的积压订单翻了一倍多。

Their backlog more than doubled.

我还能一直说下去。

I could go on and on and on.

它们还上调了业绩指引。

They raised their guidance.

这看起来真的是估值压缩的情况。

It really seems to be a case of multiple compression.

这些数字是大幅超预期并上调指引，但前几个季度更令人惊叹。

The numbers that was a great beat and raise, but previous quarters were even more kind of breathtaking.

我觉得市场对这只股票的定价已经预期了非常惊人的业绩。

And I feel like the stock was priced for just, you know, knock your socks off results.

这些业绩确实很好，但并没有比市场已经预期的高出太多。

These were great results, but it wasn't that much higher than the market was already pricing in.

所以你现在看到的是估值压缩。

So you're seeing some multiple compression here.

在公布业绩前，它的交易价格大约是未来收益的37倍。

It it it still It was trading for about 37x forward earnings going into this.

当基础设施支出从8000亿美元跃升到明年的1.3万亿美元时，产能限制不会变得更容易。现在有一些产能限制之类的问题，所以真正拖累股价的是不确定性。

Are capacity constraints that aren't going to get any easier when infrastructure spending jumps to $1,300,000,000,000 next year from $800,000,000,000 There are some capacity constraints and things like that, so that's what's really weighing on the stock right now, the uncertainty.

我觉得这里没有什么需要扭转的。

I don't think there's anything to turn around here.

我觉得这家公司的业务做得很好。

I think the business is doing great.

问题在于股价会不会回升。

It's a question of whether the stock is going to turn around.

真正的问题是，基础设施建设还能加速多久、加速多少。

And real it's it's really how long and how much further does the infrastructure build out can continue to accelerate.

对。

Yeah.

不。

No.

我觉得这家公司还有很多机会继续做大。

I think there there's are a a lot of opportunities for the business to continue to get larger.

但是，再说一次，因为这家公司是做混凝土浇筑、铺沥青、铺设下水道和污水基础设施、暖通空调，基本上是从零开始为数据中心、高端电子制造、半导体工厂这类项目做基础设施的。

But, again, the the because this a company that pours concrete, lays asphalt, puts in sewers, sewage infrastructure, HVAC, for like that, literally from the ground up for data centers, like, high, like high end manufacturing for electronics, like semiconductor factories, that's kind of what they do.

显然，增长是存在的。

And obviously, there's the growth.

但看看图表上的走势，年初时这家建筑公司的市盈率大约是30倍，高峰期几乎到了90倍。

But just plotting the line on the chart here, began the year traded for about 30 times earnings for a construction company, at the peak traded for almost 90 times earnings.

而那是几个月前，大概一两个月前的事。

And that's like, a couple months, like a month or two ago.

即使经历了这轮抛售，它现在的市盈率仍然是35倍，基于前瞻盈利来看要低得多，因为增长率很强劲。

And even with this sell off, it still trades for 35 times trailing earnings, it's a lot lower on a forward basis, because the growth rates are strong.

但我觉得投资者可能只是意识到这是一个非常周期性的行业。

But I think investors maybe just kind of realized that this is a very cyclical business.

这是最先会有客户取消合同的公司之一，当需求达到顶峰，不再需要新建这些基础设施时，它的积压订单会迅速减少。

This is one of the first companies that's going to have customers canceling contracts, and its backlog is going to start to shrink quickly, when the demand does peak, and there's no longer the need for new build for these, for this infrastructure.

但与此同时，他们还有其他手段可以在一定程度上平稳过渡。他们做了很多基础工作，比如住宅开发和其他商业房地产，他们进场做初期的基础设施建设。

But at the same time, there are other levers they can pull to kind of land that plane to a certain extent, They do a lot of foundation work for things like housing developments, and other, you know, commercial real estate where they come in and they do that initial infrastructure.

这不是一门好生意。

It's not as good of a business.

利润率没有现在做的这些高。

It's not as high margin of what they're doing right now.

不过他们的业务确实有一些多元化，这应该会随着时间推移，在一定程度上帮助缓解风险。

But they do have some diversification in their business that should over time, kind of help soften the risk.

但未来五年的机会绝对是巨大的。

But the opportunity over the next five years is absolutely extraordinary.

所以如果市盈率开始上升，我也不会感到意外。

So it wouldn't surprise me to see the multiple start to move higher.

我认为这只股票，即使市盈率不上升，也会继续上涨，仅仅是因为业务本身的纯利润增长。

The stock, I think is certainly even if the multiple doesn't move higher, is going to continue to move up just because of just the pure profit growth of the business.

好，我们换个话题，从樱桃翻转日转到迪克体育用品。

Well, let's transition from Cherry Turnover Day to Dick's Sporting Goods.

这里有个很好的引子。

It's a good leading lead in here.

迪克体育用品单日下跌超过30%。

Dick's Sporting Goods down over 30 in a single day.

这是它作为上市公司以来最糟糕的单日表现。

It's it's worst single day as a publicly traded company.