5月7日开始真正烧钱

七巨头的财报开局不太顺利。

Mag seven earnings are getting off to a rough start.

今天是《富达隐藏 gems 投资》节目。

Today on Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

欢迎收听《富达隐藏 gems 投资》。

Welcome to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

我是你们的主持人克罗。

I'm your host, Crowe.

今天我请来了长期资深嘉宾怀特曼和乔恩·夸斯特，这周他们临时顶替几位休假的分析师，来一场分析界的桌球赛。

And today, I'm joined by longtime full contributors, Whiteman and Jon Quast doing a little bit of analyst shuffleboard this week, with people filling in for a little bit of vacation.

我们先聊聊财报，因为这周是全年最繁忙的财报季之一。

So we're gonna get into earnings because this week is one of the busiest earnings weeks that we have.

一大堆公司都在集中发布业绩。

Tons of companies are reporting.

我们想重点看看一些属于隐藏 gems 范畴的公司，说说这季财报有哪些值得关注的点，但首先得聊聊今天市场的大动静——特斯拉和字母表，它们都是七巨头里的，财报一出来，情况不太妙。

We wanna dive into some of, like, the companies we consider in the hidden gems universe, some of the things we're looking forward to this earnings season, but we wanted to start with the big moves on the day, which were obviously Tesla and Alphabet, two of the Mag seven that are getting this, earnings started, and it didn't look great.

两家公司都是在昨天收盘后公布的财报，我们录播时，谷歌和特斯拉的股价分别下跌了7%和13%。

Both reported after the close yesterday, and both stocks, Google and Tesla, are down 713% respectively as we tape.

我认为最主要的原因是，这两家公司现在都进入了明显的现金消耗阶段，投资支出太大了。

And the largest reason, as least as far as I could tell, is that both companies are now solidly in cash burn mode with their investments.

这真是个挺有意思的细节。

So this was a fascinating tidbit.

我好像在咱们开始之前，就在《金融时报》上看到过这个消息，各位。

I think I saw it in the Financial Times before we got started, guys.

自从2002到2003年上市以来，这是阿尔法贝特第一次出现负的自由现金流，历史上头一回。

For the first time since going public back in those 2002, 2003, Alphabet posted its first quarter ever of negative free cash flow.

这听起来确实挺严重的，也很扎眼，我们其实早就一直在讨论这个问题了。

That sounds pretty egregious or, you know, very stark and something we've been talking about for a while.

那整体来看，这些数字到底是什么情况？

So what did these numbers kinda look like across the board?

是的，说实话，我们早就知道这事迟早要来，但有意思的是，现在大家终于开始认真关注了。因为阿尔法贝特那边，账面上的数字其实还不错。

Yeah, so look, we've known this was coming forever, and the interesting thing to me is we're finally starting to care about it, because Alphabet, yeah, the numbers were great on one side of the ledger.

收入增长了82%，云业务的待执行订单还在持续两位数增长，但他们把赚来的每一分钱，甚至更多，全都花出去了。

82% revenue growth, the cloud backlog continues to go up double digits, but they are spending every bit of money that they bring in and more.

就像你说的，他们真的出现了自由现金流为负的情况。

Like you say, they actually went free cash flow negative.

他们的资本支出还进一步增加了。

They actually boosted their CapEx spending.

上个季度我们还觉得，这支出已经高到顶了，不可能再往上走了。

We thought last quarter, it's like, well, can't go any higher than this.

结果呢，他们又来了句‘你等着瞧吧’，真是服了。

Well, hold my beer as they say, right?

今年他们的资本支出预计要达到1950亿到2050亿美元之间。

They are now expecting to spend 195,000,000,000 to $2.00 $5,000,000,000 in CapEx this year.

比他们之前说的数字整整多了150亿美元。

That's a $15,000,000,000 boost from what they said previously.

这下子，自由现金流变负，也就不足为奇了。

That's how you end up with negative free cash flow.

泰勒，这其实是个故事，因为历史上大部分时间，就像你说的，他们钱多得花不完。

This is a narrative story, Tyler, because for most of its history, as you said, they had a ton of money and they didn't know what to do with it all.

所以他们才搞了那些其他投资。

That's why they had the other bets.

但现在，情况突然变得像我常关注的那些传统工业公司一样——每赚一块钱，就得花掉九十八块九毛，甚至可能超过一美元。

Now suddenly this is looking like one of those boring old industrial businesses that I follow that for every dollar you make, you have to spend $98.99 cents, even maybe a dollar 1.

这应该是暂时的，但到底能持续多久？这种状态会拖多久？

It should be temporary, but how long is temporary and how long does this drag out?

这些才是现在市场真正关心的问题。

These are the questions I think the market's asking today.

说得对。

Yeah.

我还想指出，特斯拉和谷歌的现金消耗之间有巨大差异。

I will point out too that there is a big difference between the cash burn in Tesla and Alphabet's results.

实际上，谷歌的现金消耗已经跟其他超大规模云服务商趋同了。

Really, Alphabet and is falling in with the other hyperscalers in their cash burn.

他们把钱全砸在AI计算和配套基础设施上了。

They're really spending that all on the AI compute and the infrastructure to go along with that.

而特斯拉不同，他们烧钱是因为卖车。

Tesla, on the other hand, moving cars is why they're burning cash.

为了把车卖出去，他们一直在降价。

They're lowering those prices to get cars out the door.

这跟其他公司的情况完全不一样。

That's a very different scenario than what the other players are facing.

我觉得，你确实能提出一个说法。

And I I think, really, you can make an argument.

也许有人不认同，但我觉得你有理由说，谷歌这次的决策很明智。

Maybe there's disagreement in the argument, but I think you can make an argument that Alphabet is making a good move here.

你看谷歌云业务这块。

You look at the Google Cloud segment.

收入同比涨了82%。

Revenue up 82% year over year.

谷歌云部门的运营收入同比上涨超过两倍。

Operating income in the Google Cloud segment up over 200% year over year.

所以这里确实有实实在在的成果。

So there are real results here.

人工智能投资正在形成真正的势头。

There is real momentum with the AI investments.

你可以说他们投入的钱远超当前回报，这点我理解。

You can say that they're investing way more than what justifies the return that they're getting, and I understand that.

但至少我们能看到、能衡量到一些经济效益，希望这能成为长期助力；而特斯拉那边，关于现金流消耗的问题就更多了。

But there is some sort of economic benefit that we can see, we can measure, hopefully it's a long tailwind, whereas, Tesla, think that there's more questions on the cash burn segment.

是的。

Yeah.

说到这点，Lou，我们节目前还聊过，特斯拉现在不仅开始大笔烧钱，他们今年原本计划的资本支出大约是250亿美元，但到目前为止，实际支出似乎还落后于计划。

To that point too, and, Lou, you and I were mentioning it before the show, was that not only is Tesla getting into cash burn mode now, their CapEx spending that they said they were gonna do this year, which is about $25,000,000,000, you could say so far this year, they're actually a little behind schedule.

我觉得他们今年到目前为止只花了大约885亿美元。

I think they've only spent like $88,500,000,000 so far.

所以大家预期，今年剩余时间，以及未来几年，他们的现金消耗会大幅增加。

So there's going the expectation is that the cash ramp for them over the rest of the year and presumably over the next several years is going to ramp up significantly from here.

没错。

Right.

你说特斯拉跌幅比谷歌母公司大得多，我觉得这很合理。

You said Tesla's down more than Alphabet, significantly more, and I think for a good reason.

我们本来就没对这一季度抱太大期望，这反而是好事，但这一季的表现确实很差。

I don't think we had high expectations for this quarter, so that's the good news, but this was a lousy quarter.

就像乔恩说的，这简直像埃隆新开了一家疯狂的汽车卖场，什么优惠都敢出，对吧？

Like Jon said, a lot of this was almost crazy Elon's new car emporium, no deal is too good, right?

而且你看，他们报告的每股收益里，三分之二都来自SpaceX持股的公允价值变动，而不是主营业务。

And and that is why look, even on what they made, two thirds of the earnings per share that they recorded, two thirds was mark into market the SpaceX holding, not operations.

所以说，真正推动这一季度业绩的，根本不是汽车，而是火箭飞船。

So look, I mean, it was literally rocket ships, not automobiles that that kind of drove this quarter.

顺便说一句，自6月30日以来，SpaceX的股价已经大幅下跌。

And hey, SpaceX shares are down big for since June 30.

所以就连这个也不太乐观。

So even that's not looking great.

但泰勒，正如你所说，自由现金流为负11亿美元，不过这已经是连续第二个季度公司实际支出低于资本预算了。

But Tyler, as you said, free cash flow negative $1,100,000,000, but for the second straight quarter, the company under spent its CapEx budget.

如果不需要花这么多钱，当然是好事，但遗憾的是，他们计划中的支出依然很多，比如投资自动驾驶、人工智能，还有其他各项计划。

So that's good if they don't need to spend it, but unfortunately they still have a lot of spending that they intend to do, investing in optimists, investing in AI, all of what they're going to do.

如果他们坚持全年的指引，而目前前两个季度都没达到目标，他们也没说要下调指引，那就意味着下半年的资本支出将翻倍。

If they stick to their full year guidance and they haven't said that full year guidance is coming down with these first two quarters of not hitting their guidance, that means CapEx is going to double in the second half of the year.

所以我们现在看到的这些自由现金流数据，接下来只会变得更糟。

So all of these free cash flow numbers we're looking at now, they're only gonna get worse.

眼下我们正处在一个交付量上升的世界里，但当你把交付量提升了34%，汽车毛利润却只增长了1%的时候……

Right now we're in a world where, deliveries are up, but when you grow deliveries by 34%, but your auto gross profit is only up 1%.

我觉得，这比利润率更能说明问题——他们现在只是在清库存。

That I think even better than margin tells the tale of they're just moving inventory here.

我们知道这是一段转型期，但才刚刚开始，就已经能看到这些数据了。

We knew this was a period of transition, but it's only just begun and we're already seeing these numbers.

这大概就是市场反应这么负面的原因。

That's kind of the I think that's why the market is reacting so negatively.

我现在脑子里突然浮现出一个画面，就是你总能在广播或本地电视广告里看到那种汽车经销商老板。

I really I have this image in my head now where like, you you always hear like radio or local TV commercials where it's the guy who owns the auto dealership.

他常说：我进货太多了。

It's like, I've bought too many.

我这生意搞砸了。

I I made a business with snake.

我得赶紧把库存清掉，现在真希望看到一个版的埃隆·马斯克站在特斯拉门店前，说同样的话——这画面怕是再也忘不掉了。

I need to clear this inventory, and you're gonna really now I want an Elon Musk version of that in front of a Tesla store because now that's just gonna be etched in my mind forever.

就像埃隆疯了，清仓大甩卖。

It's like Elon's crazy, discount inventory.

全场打折，统统处理掉。

Everything must go sale, going on.

所以我想把镜头拉远一点，这才是真正关键的地方：我们看到这两家公司都开始大量烧钱了。

So I I wanna back the lens up in the I this is where I think it it really starts to fall into context here is that we saw both of these companies go into cash burn.

正如我所说，谷歌是第一次，特斯拉也是很久以来第一次，而且这种情况预计还会持续一段时间。

Like I said, Google for the first time ever, Tesla for the first time in a long time, with it going to presumably happen for a while.

这正是让我觉得棘手的地方，作为投资者，该怎么理解这一切？因为每个分析师、麦肯锡的预测都显示，未来五到六年，AI基础设施的投入只会一路飙升。

And this is where, to me, it is is where it starts to become challenging as investor and and how to figure this out, because every single analyst, McKinsey study projection of what AI infrastructure spending is going to be is it's just going up, up, up, up, up for the next five to six years.

如果我们现在正处于现金流持续消耗的阶段，而且未来五年都得照这个节奏走下去，那我就不得不想，这种模式没有根本性改变的话，到底能撑多久？

And if we are in a period where cash burn is now and we're expected to continue on this path for the next five years, this is where I'd start to wonder, like, how sustainable is this without some sort of change in the trajectory of what we're doing here?

我得假设，如果这些公司连续两三年疯狂烧钱，短期确实能做出好看的财报，但这么长时间持续下去，绝对会考验投资者的耐心。

I I I have to assume that if we were to see these companies just burn through cash for two to three years, yes, they can put up better earnings numbers, but doing that for that sustained period of time is going to really test investors resolve.

确实如此。

Definitely.

这其实有点像囚徒困境，对吧？

And there's kind of a prisoner's dilemma here, isn't there?

因为这些云服务商都已经押上了重注，把公司未来全赌在这些前沿模型上了。

Because all of these hyperscalers that have committed all this money and are putting their, basically betting the company on these frontier models.

如果他们在不得不继续之前就停手，那真是个挺微妙的时刻。

It is a weird moment if they're going to stop this before they have to.

所以，这雪球已经滚下山坡了。

So you're kind of just The snowball has started rolling down the hill.

那它到底什么时候、怎么开始呢？

How and when is it going to start?

泰勒，我担心的是，我不是AI专家，也不敢说自己懂行，但我觉得越来越多的证据表明，很多企业级AI工具其实根本不需要前沿模型。

And Tyler, here's what worries me about it, is that I think, and I'm not an AI expert, I'm not going to pretend to be, but I think there is growing credible evidence that a lot of the return on investment generating enterprise AI tools don't need the frontier models.

现在有数以百万计的开源模型可用。

There are millions of open source models out there.

不是所有模型质量都高，也不是都有安全保证，有些还来自国外，企业未必敢用——但确实有不少不错的模型。

Not all of them are of good quality, not all of them have security, some of them are from foreign countries that they don't wanna but there are good models out there.

万一这才是关键，万一真成了最糟的情况呢？

What if this is the kicker and this is kind of a nightmare scenario.

万一我们花的这几百亿、几千亿，只换来了最难的那5%的工作，而95%的收益和AI价值，其实根本用不上这些模型呢？

What if we're spending these billions and billions for the frontier models that maybe do the hardest 5% of the work and 95% of the revenue and the AI goodness bypasses these models that we're spending on.

那这种投入，怎么才能回本呢？

How do you make that spending pay off then?

希望还有另一条路。

Hopefully, there's another path.

希望我们没走上这条路，但正是这一点让我在面对这些超大规模云服务商时夜不能寐。

Hopefully, that isn't the path we're headed on, but that is what kinda keeps me up at night with the hyperscalers.

我觉得，卢，如果真是这样，那恰恰说明苹果做得太到位了——它是少数几家特别适合受益于本地AI的公司，而开源模型恰恰能推动本地AI的发展。我们说的本地AI，就是自己有硬件，跑自己的模型。

Well, I I think, Lou, if that's the case, I think it underscores the fact that Apple played this perfectly, because it is one of the companies that is in a very strong position to benefit from local AI, and the open source models do benefit the local AI, so this is basically having your own hardware, running your own models, that's what we're talking about when we say local AI.

苹果的硬件特别适合做这件事，所以它没像其他公司那样疯狂砸钱建基础设施，它的硬件已经准备好，随时可以抓住可能发生的这种转变。

Apple hardware is really optimized to do this well, and so Apple didn't get into the crazy cap ex game that the other companies did, its hardware is already positioned to take advantage if that is a shift that is gonna take place.

我觉得这真的太厉害了。

So I I really think that that's an incredible thing.

再回到你之前说的，想象一下，如果对云服务商来说，这现在已经成为做生意的必要成本了呢？

And to circle back to something you said earlier, imagine a scenario where this is just kind of the cost of doing business now if you are a hyperscaler.

不管投资回报率怎么样，最重要的是活下去，这就有点像囚徒困境——你不得不花这么多钱在AI基础设施和算力上，只为了不被甩开，现在这就是现实。

It doesn't matter what the ROI is, the the what matters is staying in business, and so it is somewhat of a prisoner's dilemma, and so, yeah, you are having to spend this much money on the AI infrastructure and compute, and staying ahead of the game, and that's just how it is now.

在这种情况下，你不再是那个源源不断产生自由现金流的机器了，现金正在往外流，流向下游的其他公司，那些小公司反而成了这笔支出最大的受益者。

In that scenario, you're no longer the free cash flow machine, the cash flow is flowing out, but into the other companies downstream, the smaller fish that are now the bigger beneficiaries of that spending.

所以我觉得，如果你是设备制造商，比如这些公司之一，它们现在正迎来巨大的利好，而且这种势头可能还会持续，值得密切关注。

So I think if you are an equipment maker or an equipment manufacturer, one of these companies, I mean, they are seeing amazing tailwinds right now that could continue, and it is something to watch.

我以前在这儿说过一次，现在再重申一遍。

I think I've said it here once before, I'll say it again.

这些公司里，有一家就是人工智能领域的‘Ask Jeeves’。

One of these companies is the Ask Jeeves of the AI world.

只是我们还不知道到底是哪一家。

We just don't know which one it is yet.

广告之后，我们继续聊财报。

Coming up after the break, we'll keep on doing earnings.

我们每天的播客时长大约二十到二十五分钟。

We're about a twenty, twenty five minute podcast on any given day.

要想把本周所有发布财报的公司都一一分析清楚，几乎是不可能的。

So trying to break down every single company that's delivering earnings this week would be practically impossible.

光是今天，就有大约一百五十家公司发布了财报。

I think there was a 150 companies that were reporting today alone.

所以我们得挑重点来聊。

So we're we have to do pick and choose what we wanna do here.

在节目开始前，我们大致梳理了一遍我们所关注的那些隐藏宝藏公司。

So, what we did before the show is we kinda went through the universe of companies that are recommended in the various, hidden gems universe that we have.

接下来，我想把话筒交给你们，聊聊这些隐藏宝藏公司最新的财报表现。

And I'm gonna give you guys the floor to highlight some earnings results from this hidden gems universe.

不过在那之前，上周IBM其实已经提前打了预防针，说：嘿，

But before we do that, last week, IBM kinda telegraphed and said, hey.

我们这次的成绩不会太好。

We're not gonna have great results.

而IBM其实也属于我们说的那些隐藏宝藏公司之一。

And IBM is part of some of the the, hidden gems universe.

所以我想简单跟进一下，Lou，

So I wanted to just do a quick follow-up, Lou.

他们上周说收入可能稍微差一点，情况真有那么糟吗？

It as bad as they said it was last week when they're like, oh, revenue might not be a little bit short here?

是的。

Yeah.

有趣的是，情况其实没那么糟，但结果确实如他们之前预告的那样。

The funny thing is it was never that bad, but yes, it came in as telegraphed.

收入是171.6亿美元，低于179亿美元，但说实话，这有那么严重吗？

Revenue was 17,160,000,000, which is short of 17,900,000,000, but come on, really?

这里真正值得关注的是他们的前景指引。

The interesting thing here was the guidance.

让市场感到不安的是，IBM表示，客户现在更愿意在硬件上花钱，而不是他们的软件。

Think what freaked the market out was this idea that IBM saying that, look, people are spending on hardware, not our software.

你可以把这看作是暂时现象，也可以理解为，他们的软件属于‘可有可无’，而不是‘必需品’，这可不是个有利的位置。

You can read that as temporary, or you can read that as, it's a want to have, not a must have, which is not a great position to be in.

IBM预计今年剩余时间的收入增长率将在4%到5%之间。

IBM expects revenue growth in the 4% to 5% range for the rest of the year.

这不算好，但至少有个方向，我觉得反而让人安心。

That's not great, but it's something at least, and I think it's calming.

股价确实跌了一些，但我觉得相比上周，这反而让人心稳了不少。

The stock's down somewhat, but I think it is kinda calming nerves relative to you last week.

另外一点，卢，我觉得还得提一下，IBM的首席执行官承认，他们没完全预料到实际情况会这样发展。

Well, I think the other thing to go along with that, Lou, is the fact that IBM CEO is saying it it didn't fully anticipate what played out.

而且，大部分公司的资本支出预算今年早就定好了。

And so, yeah, there is CapEx budget's already set for the year for the most part.

预算正在从软件转向硬件，因为硬件本身更贵，而首席执行官也说，他们预见到会有这种转移，但没想到会这么剧烈。

There is a shift happening from the software budget to the hardware budget, because hardware simply costs more, and the CEO saying, we did expect that shift to happen, but it played out way more than what we expected.

我觉得在这种变化迅速的行业里，企业必须对实时动态有清晰的把握，而IBM某种程度上承认了自己对现状掌握得不够，这可能就是投资者担心的地方——虽然有点过度反应，但我觉得这就是他们反应的根源。

I think that in a fast moving space like this, you really want your companies to have a firm handle on what is happening in real time, and IBM kind of admitting a little bit that, ah, we we don't fully know what's going on here, so I think that is the concern a little bit, maybe overblown, but I think that's what investors are responding to.

是的。

Yeah.

最让我觉得奇怪的是，他们提到大型机业务大幅下滑，可你刚才不是说这是转向硬件吗？

The one that kind of stood out to me the most, and they it sounded like a timing thing, they're like mainframe business was way down, which I'm like, but you said this was a a shift to hardware.

也许我对IBM的业务没那么熟悉，但我觉得这听起来不像是单纯的软件问题，更像是硬件层面的事。

And maybe I'm not quite as, up to IBM, but I was like, that sounds a little more than than software.

不过不管怎样，这个我们改天再细聊吧，毕竟这事影响挺大的。

But either way, we're gonna follow-up on that one obviously some other time because it's it's a it's a big movie here.

话说回来，在那些被忽视的潜力股里，最近几天有哪家公司的股票特别引起你们注意？

But guys, of the hidden gems universe, what was it stock that stuck out to you that's reported in the last couple of days?

Jon，你先说吧。

Jon, we'll start with you.

对我来说，是Tractor Supply，股票代码TSCO。

For me, Tractor Supply, ticker symbol TSCO.

这家公司我很看好，之前也提过好几次。

This is a business that I really like and one that I've highlighted before.

最近它的估值跌了不少，历史来看现在处于很低的水平。

Its valuation it's fallen a lot here recently, the valuation is is historically quite low.

我一直觉得这是个不错的买入机会，因为这家公司的业务非常稳健。

And I've thought that this is a good stock to buy because I see the business is very resilient.

我觉得它业务稳健的一个原因，就是它有很大一部分收入来自宠物和伴侣动物相关的产品。

One of the reasons that I believe the business is resilient is just how much of the business is with companion animals or pets, in other words.

大概四分之一的业务是面向宠物市场的。

So about a quarter of the business is addressing the pet market.

另外大约四分之一是针对牲畜的。

Roughly another quarter is for livestock.

也就是说，一半的业务都跟动物有关。

So I mean, 50% of the business is towards the animals.

我觉得这是因为人们愿意为自己的动物花钱。

I really see that as a people spend money for their animals.

本来就是这么回事。

That's just how it is.

这是刚公布的第二季度报告里的数据。

This is in the q two report here that just came out.

公司旗下有209家Pet Sense门店。

The company owns 209 pet sense stores.

他们打算关闭其中75家。

They're actually gonna close 75 of those.

所以这部分业务中，大约有三分之一要关闭。

So about a third of that part of the business, it's closing.

报告还提到，拖拉机供应公司旗下的宠物陪伴业务板块正面临困难，因此他们打算加大这方面的投入。

Also saying that the animal, the companion animal segment of the business within Tractor Supply is struggling, and so they're going to put some emphasis on there.

对我来说，投资拖拉机供应公司的核心逻辑就在于，这部分业务一直很稳健，只是眼下稍微有点压力。

For me, this is really the foundation of an investment thesis with Tractor Supply is that this part of the business remains resilient, And right now, it's under pressure a little bit.

所以如果你是拖拉机供应公司的投资者，接下来几个季度得密切关注这个情况。

So I think this is something to monitor if you're an investor of Tractor Supply over the next several quarters.

这是个趋势，还是一次性现象？

Is this a trend or is this a one off?

是的。

Yeah.

这挺有意思。

That's interesting.

毕竟人们还是会为宠物买吃的。

Because you know people are feeding their pets.

他们是不喂宠物了？

Are they just not feeding their pets?

指的是Tractor Supply这家店。

From Tractor Supply.

对。

Yeah.

是这样的。

Is.

各位，再提一个，快速说一下RTX，就是以前叫雷神技术公司的那个，股票代码毫不意外是RTX。

Look guys, one more for you, quick shout out to RTX, the artist formerly known as Raytheon Technologies, ticker is unsurprisingly RTX.

今天股价涨了8%，今年累计涨了22%，得益于商业和国防业务双双增长的强劲财报。

They're up 8% today, up 22% for the year after a strong report fueled by growth on both the commercial and defense side of the business.

他们还上调了全年业绩指引，说明他们认为这种势头还会持续。

They also raised full year guidance, so they see this continuing.

所有业务板块全面上涨，这种情况在RTX身上可不多见。

All segments were up across the board, which you rarely see with RTX.

这一直是他们的问题之一。

That's been one of the problems with them.

特别要提一下国防业务，收入增长了18%，新订单也表现惊人。

Special shout out here for the defense side, 18% revenue growth, massive quarter for new orders too.

你听好了。

Listen to this.

他们每投入一美元，就签下了2.42美元的新业务。

They booked $2.42 worth of new business for every $1 they build out in the quarter.

这可是未来增长的强烈信号。

That is a great way to telegraph growth from here.

你只要看看报纸，就能明白国防领域正在发生什么。

I think all you have to do is pick up the newspaper and know what's going on in the defense side.

在民用领域，飞机的订单依然非常火爆。

On the commercial side, airplanes are still running hard.

他们现在两边都布局得非常好，正好赶上各自业务板块的强劲顺风。

They are really set up well to take advantage of what looks like two two big a big set of tailwinds on each side of the business.

我想做个快速的反转，让你们俩换个角度看看，因为你们各自推荐了一只股票。

I wanna do a quick thing and try to flip the script on both of you because each pitched a stock.

你知道的，卢，你推荐了农夫用品公司。

You know, Lou, you got Tractor Supply.

过去一年它跌了大约45%，现在市盈率只有14倍左右。

It's down about 45% over the past year, trading at about 14 times earnings.

根据乔刚才说的那些情况，你有兴趣买进吗？

Based on some of the things that Lou said or sorry, these things that Jon said, are you interested in buying?

我也把这个问题抛给你，乔。

And I'm gonna flip the question to you as well, Jon.

对。

Yeah.

基于RTX股价涨了36%，市盈率39倍，你感兴趣吗？

Interested in RTX based on up 36% trading at 39 times earnings.

我一般对零售股挺谨慎的，但农夫用品公司我一直有在关注。

So I'm generally scared of retail, but Tractor Supply is always one I've looked at.

也许如果价格够低，我会考虑一下。

Maybe if they get cheap enough, I might look at it.

但说实话，我对零售业没什么兴趣，平时也不怎么购物，所以根本看不准趋势，大部分时间我都躲着零售股。

But look, in retail, I just I'm not much of a shopper, and so I'm really bad at spotting trends, so I just kind of hide from retail most of the time.

这节目真有点乏味，我跟你说，我对国防承包商也是同样的看法。

This is a very uninspiring podcast, as I say the same thing about defense contractors.

我得说，我的投资组合里一只都没买。

I will say I don't own any of my portfolio.

洛克希德·马丁我一直挺看好，如果真要进场，我大概会先选它，但你知道，我总担心每四年总统换届带来的变化，所以一直没下手，不过Lou刚才提到的一些数据确实让我动心了，尤其是他们每花一美元能赚回2.42美元这个指标。

Lockheed Martin have always been a big fan of, so if I was to plunge in there, I'd probably go Lockheed first, but, you know, this is a space that I I always worry about what is gonna shift over every four year presidential cycle, and so I've just never taken the dip, but I will admit that Lou has me interested here after posting some really interesting numbers here, especially with the $2.42 to every dollar they fill out.

这个指标真有意思。

Very interesting metric.

RTX这边军用和民用业务的变动确实不少。

Certainly, a lot of moving parts at RTX booth with the defense and the commercial side.

挺值得关注的，而且也没听到什么关于普惠发动机那边出问题的消息，这点挺好。

So interesting to see, and also nice that, you know, didn't hear anything of like, yeah, Pratt and Whitney, we've got some problems that we need to fix.

这肯定就是我们入场的原因。

I think that's for sure why we're in.

没错。

That.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

广告结束后，我们会展望一下本季剩余的财报表现。

So coming up after the break, we're gonna take a look ahead for the rest of the earnings coming up this earnings season.

喂。

Hey.

我们通常都会有个问答环节，但今天是财报季，所以就跳过了。

We normally do a question and answer section here, but it is earning season, so we're gonna skip it today.

不过我还是想提醒一下，如果你有想问的问题，可以发邮件到 podcasts@fool.com。

But I do wanna remind you if you wanna get your question in, go ahead and email us at podcasts@fool.com.

邮箱是 podcasts@withansatfool.com。

That's podcasts@withansatfool.com.

我们一直提醒大家，第一，保持幽默感，简短一点，还要符合证交会的规定。

We always ask, number one, keep it foolish, keep it short, and keep it in compliance with SEC.

我们不能提供任何个性化的投资建议。

We can't give out any individualized advice.

话虽如此，就像我说的，咱们接下来看看本季度剩下的财报季会有什么动静。

With that in mind, like I said, we're gonna look forward to the rest of the earnings season coming up.

我想请你们扮演一下我的股票品鉴师，陪我一起走过这个季度剩下的时间。

I wanna ask you guys, I'm gonna put you in the position, you are my stock sommeliers for the rest of this quarter.

给我推荐两家公司，你们觉得在接下来的财报季值得关注。

Sell me on two companies that you think are worth following this upcoming earnings season.

所以我不确定

So I don't know

这结果可能会让人惊喜，也可能让人失望，不过周二早上，贝宝要公布财报并开电话会议。

if this will be bitter or sweet, but on Tuesday morning, PayPal is scheduled to release results and hold a conference call.

这份报告可能会挺有意思，因为我们可以看看新管理层下，贝宝有没有出现任何增长的迹象。

The report could be interesting because we have a chance to see if that under new management there's any signs of growth at PayPal.

但更值得关注的是电话会议，管理层几乎肯定会面对大量关于这起530亿美元收购要约的问题。

But more interesting, think, is the conference call because management will almost certainly be asked a lot of questions about the reported $53,000,000,000 takeover offer for the company.

现在，我最近所有的财经资讯都来自Poly Market，那边显示这笔交易有73%的概率能成。

Now guys, I get all of my financial bite these days from Poly Market, and Poly Market says there's a 73% chance that this deal gets done.

说实话，我押注它不会成。

I'll be honest, I'll take the under.

我对每股65美元的报价持怀疑态度，这真够吗？

I'm a lot more skeptical that dollars and 50¢ per share, which is the offer price if that's good enough.

但真正关键的是，我想知道管理层自己怎么看。

But really, what matters is I'm curious what management thinks.

根据上个季度的自由现金流趋势，我觉得65美元明显太低了。

Based on last quarter's free cash flow trends, I think sixty fifty is way too low.

我觉得他们可能得再加个15美元左右，才够有吸引力。

I think maybe they have to sweeten it by $15 or so.

我特别想知道他们的自由现金流有没有保持稳定，还有管理层会怎么说。

I'm really interested to see if that free cash flow held up and whatever commentary we have.

PayPal 现在我觉得更有意思了。

PayPal just got a lot more interesting to me.

Poly Market 和 Kalshi 不是赌博网站，是期货商品合约。

Poly Market and Kalshi, not gambling sites, futures commodity contracts.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

That's right.

没错。

That's right.

Jon，你最近在关注什么？

Jon, what do you what do you see in?

Airbnb 要到八月五号才发布财报，但这一季我最关注的就是它，可能因为我真心觉得 Airbnb 是世界上最好的企业。

Well, AirBnb isn't scheduled to report until August 5, but that's the one this earning season that I am very interested in, probably because I think AirBnb is simply my favorite business in the world.

我真的很喜欢。

I I really do.

我知道有些人不喜欢。

I know some people hate it.

我下周要出去旅行。

I'm taking a trip next week.

我会在AirBnb上住两个特别棒的地方。

I'm staying in two different great places on AirBnb.

所以，我真的非常欣赏这个业务和它的模式。

So, I mean, I'd really love the the business and the model here.

但说实话，过去五年它的股价表现很差，实际上还跌了2%。

But I have to be honest, the stock is an absolute dud over the last five years, actually down 2% over the last five years.

这里的好处是，它目前的估值接近五年来的最低水平，自由现金流倍数只有19倍。

And the the the benefit here is that it is trading at nearly its cheapest valuation over the last five years at only 19 times free cash flow.

这家公司的现金流非常充沛。

This business generates gobs of cash flow.

从这个角度看，它的商业模式真的很出色。

It's a fantastic business model in that regard.

但我现在关注的是，AirBnb 什么时候才能有效利用自由现金流来为股东创造价值呢？

But what I am watching and what I need to see at some point from AirBnb is can it use its free cash flow effectively to generate shareholder value?

到目前为止，效果并不明显。

So far, not really.

现在公司正在投资一些新产品线，希望长期能带动增长，最好是盈利性增长，但目前为止还没看到成效。

Now the company is investing in some new product lines that it hopes will drive growth over the long term, hopefully profitable growth, But that just hasn't played out so far.

最近，他们花了八千万美元买下了一栋曼哈顿的办公楼。

Recently, spent over 80,000,000 to buy an office building in Manhattan.

作为股东，我觉得这笔钱花得不太值，所以我对此并不看好。

I don't think that's a great use of cash personally as a shareholder, so I'm not thrilled about that.

我知道 AirBnb 完全有能力产生现金流，但关键问题是，它能不能把这些钱用在创造股东价值上？

So I know for a fact that AirBnb can generate cash flow, but can they use it to create value for shareholders?

这一点，我期待它早日有所表现。

That's what I need to start seeing at some point.

我真的很喜欢AirBnb，但迟早得让他们证明自己能让股价涨起来。

As much as I love AirBnb, at some point, they've got to show me that they can grow this stock.

过去十二个月里，AirBnb回购了大约46亿美元的股票，自2023年以来，每年都在回购30亿到40亿美元之间。

Over the past twelve months, AirBnb has bought back about $4,600,000,000 worth of stock, and they've been doing somewhere between 3 to 4,000,000,000 every year since 2023.

我有个有点荒唐的想法，说白了就是个不成熟的念头——他们一直攥着大笔现金，本来是作为押金，等客人订了房、服务真正完成之后才付给房东，对吧？

I actually have a strange harebrained idea, almost like a half baked idea, if you will, for for AirBnb is they have they always hold a ton of cash, which is basically, like, in escrow for when somebody orders a place, but then it doesn't actually give it to the the person who owns the facility until like the the service is actually rendered.

AirBnb该请个首席投资官了，就像保险公司那样，专门负责投资管理这笔资金，因为他们手里的闲置资金，跟保险公司的浮存金差不多。

AirBnb needs like a a chief investment officer, like an insurance company, who actually gets to like invest and manage the float because they have a float of money almost similar to an insurance company.

现在他们账上就躺着整整一百亿美元，名义上说是‘其他用途暂存’。

They got $10,000,000,000 just sitting on the balance sheet right now in this kind of, Hey, it's held for other reasons.

我看不出他们为什么不聘个首席投资官，反正闲着也是闲着，为什么不试试呢？

I don't see why they aren't like getting some sort of chief investment officer because hey, why not?

这又是一个潜在的投资机会。

That's another, in investment opportunity.

我给他们的建议是，干脆对参加电话会议的人收一笔清洁费。

My idea for them was, you know, they can charge a cleanup fee to anyone who attends the the conference call.

这可真够惨的。

Oh, that's rough.

这可真够惨的。

That's rough.

节目中的人可能对所讨论的股票有持仓，而The Motley Fool也可能有明确的买入或卖出建议。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以别光听几句就决定买或卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容都遵循The Motley Fool的编辑标准，且未经广告商审核。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告内容属于赞助性质，仅作信息参考。

Advertisers are sponsored content and provided for information purposes only.

如需查看完整的广告披露说明，请参阅节目说明。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢我们的制片人丹·博伊德以及The Motley Fool的全体团队。

Thanks to our producer Dan Boyd and the rest of the Motley Fool team.

感谢Lou、Jon和大家的收听，我们很快再聊。

For Lou, Jon, and myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.