马克·扎克伯格的第二幕？

马克·扎克伯格重回硅谷巅峰，Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing节目现在开始。

Mark Zuckerberg is back on top of Silicon Valley, and Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing starts now.

欢迎收听

Welcome to

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing。

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

我是Travis Hoium，今天和我一起的是Lou Whiteman，还有凯旋归来的Emily Flippen。

I'm Travis Hoium joined today by Lou Whiteman and making her triumphant return, Emily Flippen.

Emily，欢迎回到节目。

Emily, welcome back to the show.

嘿。

Hey.

很高兴来到这里。

It's great to be here.

Travis，我没想到你会再邀请我，但我肯定我会带来很多不太受欢迎的热门观点。

I'm I'm surprised you asked me back, Travis, but I'm sure I'll be bringing a lot of, less than popular hot takes.

艾米丽太忙了。

Emily is so busy.

我们得提前好几个月预约她。

We have we have to book her months in advance.

如果艾米丽想来的话，我可以让位。

I will step aside if Emily wants to come on.

你知道的。

You know that.

好了，各位。

Alright, guys.

我们先从Meta这重要的一周说起。

Let's start with Meta's huge week.

这已经是市场的热门话题了。

This has been the talk of the market.

投资者们都非常关注。

And investors are really paying attention.

过去一个月，Meta的股价上涨了33%。

Over the past month, Meta stock is up 33%.

对于一家现在市值接近两万亿美元的公司来说，这可不常见。

That is not usual for a company that is now worth nearly $2,000,000,000,000.

所以这确实在影响市场，但我想先从他们提到的设备说起。

So this is really moving markets, but I wanted to start with the devices that they talked about.

这周他们举办了Meta Connect大会。

They had Meta Connect this week.

我们看到了几款新的眼镜。

We had some more glasses.

这些算是渐进式的改进。

Those are kind of incremental changes.

然后还有一款新的智能吊坠，虽然还没发布，但至少会在未来几个月内推出。

And then you have this new charm that is not out yet, but it's gonna come out at least in the next few months.

Emily，你看Meta的设备策略，有什么让你兴奋的地方吗？

Emily, when you look at Meta's device strategy here, anything get excited to you?

脸上戴着一个Muse智能体，作为用户或者投资者，你会感到兴奋吗？

Does does having a Muse agent on your face gets you excited as either a user or an investor?

我可能会让你意外，答案是会。

I'm gonna probably surprise you by saying yes.

我确实觉得，这是很久以来第一次，Meta Connect能登上头条，因为我能看到他们的硬件对普通人来说有真正的实用场景。

I actually do think that for the first time in a while, we're talking about Meta Connect making headlines, and that's because I can see genuine use cases for their hardware for the average person.

我这么说是有准备的。

Now I am primed to say this.

我记得Meta的股价在Meta Connect之前已经涨了大约15%。

I think shares of Meta were up something like 15% heading into Meta Connect.

所以大家已经对他们的AI项目，特别是Muse这个AI智能体，抱有积极态度了。

So there was already some positivity around their AI initiatives, in particular, AI agent Muse.

但最让我兴奋的是，他们的很多硬件变得越来越实用了。

But the thing that got me most excited is just how practical a lot of their hardware is increasingly becoming.

我说的不是那个电子宠物机。

I'm I'm not talking about the Tamagotchi.

那有点俗气。

That's a little kitschy.

但我说的是他们的Meta眼镜变得多么逼真，尤其是和雷朋合作之后。

But I am talking about how realistic their Meta Glasses have become, especially with their partnership with Ray Ban.

这次他们真的推出了不带摄像头的眼镜。

This time around, they're actually launching glasses that do not have the camera attached.

我想说，自从Meta进军眼镜和硬件领域以来，最大的争议点就是——有人戴着Meta眼镜可能正在拍你，这有多吓人？

And I would say that this has been the biggest kind of like headline against Meta since their move into glasses and hardware has been how creepy is it that somebody is potentially filming you with their Meta glasses on?

这让那些真正使用Meta眼镜的人感到不自在，即使他们用得很正当。

And it made people who are legitimately using Meta glasses feel weird even if they were using them in a perfectly legitimate way.

所以，能买到不带摄像头的Meta眼镜，在家里或公共场合戴着，不用太引人注目，对我来说这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。

So being able to buy a pair of Meta glasses without the camera, wear them around, say, in private spaces like in your house or out in public without necessarily drawing attention, that to me is a step in the right direction.

Lou，你怎么看？

Lou, what do you think?

这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。

It's it's a step in the right direction.

你看。

Look.

作为一个戴眼镜的人，出门在外不用摘眼镜就能看清东西，这对我来说确实是个卖点。

As someone who wears glasses, the idea of not having them take them off and not see when I'm out in public, that I guess is a selling point for me.

我还是觉得，虽然我老提这个，但智能手机真的被低估了。

I still don't know if I say I still come back to this, but I don't think we give the smartphone enough credit.

我还是不确定普通人是不是真的需要第二个设备。

I still don't know if there really is the normals need a second device.

我觉得第一个设备已经够好了。

I think the first device is pretty good.

所以我还是不觉得这是个特别大的成功。

So I still don't think this is a big winner.

我知道他们为什么这么做。

I know why they're doing it.

我也想摆脱这些生态系统。

I would want to be off of these ecosystems too.

我觉得他们是在让这些设备稍微没那么有用，但更实用一些。

They're making them slightly less useful, I guess, without the camera, but more practical.

确实是这样。

And it is.

看起来挺酷的。

It's it seems like it's it's neat.

有点噱头。

It's gimmicky.

这会是早期用户的最爱。

It's gonna be early adapter catnip.

而且我觉得两年后，这根本不会改变世界。

And I don't think two years from now, this is gonna really have changed the world at all.

Lou，我想聊聊Meta可能在想什么，因为我们过去讨论过Meta，特别是马克·扎克伯格的一个主题，就是他非常想拥有一个平台。

Lou, I I wanna go into what Meta is probably thinking here because one of the themes that we've talked about in the past with Meta and with Mark Zuckerberg in particular is that he would love to own a platform.

他甚至把公司改名为Meta Platforms，尽管Meta实际上并没有任何平台。

He literally renamed the company Meta Platforms even though Meta doesn't actually have any platforms.

他们有应用。

They have apps.

他们本质上是一家广告公司。

They are an advertising company at their core.

但我不否认这些硬件确实非常有意思。

But I don't disagree that these are really, really interesting pieces of hardware.

但这足以成为一个平台吗？

But is this enough to become a platform?

我们一会儿再聊Muse，但这两件事是相关的——Muse会是一个AI代理，而这个硬件，眼镜、吊坠、那个电子宠物吊坠，会成为你一天中想的话就能随时跟它说话的东西。

We'll talk about Muse in just a moment, but these two things go together where Muse is gonna be this AI agent, the the hardware, the glasses, the the charm, the Tamagotchi charm thing is going to be the thing that you can talk to kind of passively throughout your day if you want.

那样的话，平台这一面就是让公司可以连接到那个设备上。

The idea there then would be that the platform side of this would be companies then can then connect to that.

所以你可以连接你的邮箱，连接你的Uber，连接各种不同的服务，这样他们就成了一个平台。

So you can connect your email, you can connect your Uber, you can connect all kinds of different things and that's how they become a platform.

这对他们来说有可能实现吗？还是说，这比起你口袋里那个已经是平台的设备，在硬件上并没有十倍的优势？

Is that something that's even possible for them or is this not a 10 x gain in hardware over literally just having the device that's already a platform in your pocket?

有可能，但话说回来，什么能改变消费者的行为呢，Travis？

It's possible, but again, like what moves consumer behavior, Travis?

我们之前也玩过这些，你知道，第一台智能冰箱大概是2000年吧？

We've had fun with this, know, like the first smart fridge was what, 2000?

到现在我们也没让机器人帮我们买所有东西。

And we're still not having robots order all our groceries.

当现有东西够用的时候，消费者的行为是很难改变的。

Consumer behavior is hard to change when things are good enough.

而且既有那种惊艳感，也有日常使用的问题。

And there's both the wow and then there's the day to day.

我喜欢去看太阳马戏团的表演。

I love going to Cirque du Soleil.

但我可不想住在太阳马戏团里。

I do not want to live in Cirque du Soleil.

这个好玩，这个新奇，这个新鲜，但我会不会改变我的生活，让它成为我生活的一部分呢？

This is fun, this is neat, this is new, but is this gonna be am I going to change my life to make this part of my life?

即使是很好的产品，这也是很难做到的事情。

That is even if it's great products, that is such a hard thing to do.

再加上我们已经把需要的权限，或者说很多权限，都给了其他公司，他们可以复制这个。

You throw in the fact that we've already given all of the permissions that are needed or a lot of them to other companies that could copy this.

我理解扎克伯格为什么这么做。

I get why Zuckerberg is doing it.

我不怪他这么做，也许我低估了这件事。

I don't blame him for doing this, and maybe I'm underestimating it.

但我见过太多AI公司，在两年内就被宣布为赢家，结果新东西一出来，大家几周内就厌倦了，或者习以为常，然后去寻找下一个大热门。

But I've just seen so many AI companies declared the winner in just two years when something new comes out, only to see let's all get bored of it or just normalize it and look for the next big thing in weeks.

不知道，除非我看到其他情况，我觉得Muse现在正火，但之后我们会转向别的东西。

Don't know, until I see otherwise, I think Muse is having its moment, and then we'll move on to something else.

艾米丽，我想先提一下这个。

Emily, I wanted to tee this up.

我，我，卢，让我们听听。

I I Lou let us hear.

但是，你知道，Muse 是一个非常受欢迎的应用，在所有应用商店里都排第一，引起了大量关注。

But, you know, Muse is has been a very popular app, number one in all of the app stores getting a ton of attention.

但就在过去二十四小时里，我注意到讨论风向变了，在那些，你知道，Twitter 上科技圈的人都在聊这些，金融圈的人也在讨论发生了什么。

But just in the last twenty four hours, I noticed a change in the discussion in sort of these, you know, Twitter is kind of where tech people are talking about these things, finance people are talking about what's going on.

这是来自 Riddle 资产管理公司的 Ben Carlson 说的。

This comes from Ben Carlson of Riddle's Asset Management.

我试了一个早上，就是个有趣的把戏。

I tried it for one morning, fun parlor trick.

我觉得那些试图优化生活中一切的科技人士，对普通人来说，把这事儿吹过头了。

I feel like the tech people who try to optimize everything in their lives are overselling this stuff for regular people.

能不能同时成立两件事：这个硬件真的很酷，Muse 是个很棒的应用，但它就是不会改变世界？

Can two things be true here that this hardware is really cool, Muse is an amazing app, and also it's just not gonna change the world?

或者我们应该怎么看待这件事？

Or how should we think about this?

因为股价一个月内涨了33%。

Because the stock is up 33% in a month.

其实我觉得可能恰恰相反。

I actually think it might be the opposite.

我这么说是因为我不同意卡尔森的看法。

And the reason I say that is I disagree with Carlson here.

我觉得像个人助理，AI驱动的个人助理，其实很多普通人都会用得上。

I mean, I think something like a personal assistant, an AI driven personal assistant is actually something that a lot of average people can use.

但要让人们接受，你得给他们一个改变习惯的理由。

But to lose point, you need to give them a reason to change their behavior.

而现在，推出一个AI助理的门槛非常低。

And right now that involves coming out with an AI assistant for which the barriers to entry are incredibly low.

信任度很高，人们可以无缝地把它融入生活，不需要改变太多习惯。

The trust is really high, and people can seamlessly integrate it into their lives without having to change too much behavior.

在我看来，在AI的零售端，这是比较实际的应用之一。

And that to me, on the retail side of AI is one of the more practical implications.

我理解Meta为什么这么推，因为就像你说的，他们一直想让大家用他们的硬件，绕过中间商，这里当然指的是苹果，这样就不用付手续费了。

And I understand Meta's push here because to your point, they've been constantly trying to get people into their hardware to cut out the middleman, in this case Apple, of course, so they don't have to pay them fees.

他们需要给人们一个购买硬件的理由。

And they need to give people a reason to buy the hardware.

他们说，我们推出第一款、最好的AI个人助理，给人们一个理由来购买我们的硬件。

And they say, we come out with the first, the best AI personal assistant, that gives people a reason to come in and buy our hardware.

对我们来说，这也许不是改变世界，但对我们公司来说，是改变游戏规则的。

And that to us, maybe it's not world changing, but it is game changing for us as a company.

我觉得Meta的问题，以及为什么Muse这次可能有点被过度炒作，是因为我不认为Meta是AI个人助理的理想合作伙伴，他们要面对的是那些已经拥有更好、更可信的用户数据的公司。

I think the issue with Meta and the reason why Muse in this case is probably a little bit overhyped is because I just don't think Meta is that partner for AI personal assistant when they're going up against companies that already have better and more trusted amounts of data on their users.

我想到的是谷歌，以及他们今年晚些时候可能推出的基于Gemini的AI助手。

I'm thinking about Google and a potential launch of a Gemini powered AI assistant later this year.

很多人用谷歌的Gmail。

Lots of people use Google for Gmail.

他们用谷歌日历，而且无缝集成。

They use Google Calendar that seamlessly integrates.

这些信息和数据他们早就有了。

That's information and data they already have.

就拿苹果来说吧，虽然他们在直接AI上的投入没那么大，但已经有大量数据流到你的iPhone上了。

Even on a business case like Apple who has invested less in direct AI, but a lot of data flows to your iPhone already.

对普通用户来说，整合起来就容易多了。

That in terms of integration for the average user is a lot easier.

而Meta的情况是，你得把那么多第三方服务都接到Meta的AI个人助理上，我觉得这个门槛才是问题所在。

In the case of Meta, you're having to hook up so many third parties to Meta's AI personal assistant that I actually think that barrier is the issue.

而且我敢打赌，三个月后我们不会再讨论Muse是不是App Store排名第一的应用了。

And I'd be surprised if three months from now, we're still talking about Muse being, say, the number one app on the App Store.

咱们换个角度想，如果这不是AI产品呢？

Let's think about this if it wasn't AI.

比如说就是个新的小工具或者类似的东西。

Let's say it's a new widget or something or something like that.

作为投资者，Muse有什么专利吗？

As just as an investor, is Muse is Muse anything patented?

它有什么特别之处，如果没有的话，它能行吗？

Is it anything is it magic that it can if not

这就是挑战所在。

This is the challenge.

这周早些时候我们聊过这个话题。

We talked about this earlier this week.

在AI领域，到底有没有护城河？

There is there any moats in the world of AI?

看起来好像并没有。

And it doesn't seem like there is.

你看，第一种可能是，扎克伯格花了大价钱组建了一支AI研究团队。

And and look, option one is is that, you know, Zucker spent a lot of money on a team of AI researchers.

也许他就能创造出别人无法复制的奇迹。

Maybe he's just able to create magic that no one else can.

如果是这样，那这就是巨大的竞争优势。

And if so, that's a huge competitive advantage.

第二种可能，我觉得更有可能的是，他们抢占了先机。

Option two, which I think is more likely is that, you know, they got here first.

如果Gemini团队没有正好在做这件事，他们现在可以转向并专注于这件事。

If Gemini if the Gemini team wasn't working on exactly that, they can now pivot and move to exactly that.

六个月后，回想一下，当ChatGPT刚出来时，大家都觉得OpenAI会值一万亿美元，因为还有谁能做到？

And six months from now, what seemed like again, remember when ChatGTP was like, wow, OpenAI is gonna be worth a quadrillion dollars because who else could do this?

但三个月后，我们就看到了答案。

And then three months later, you know, we got that answer.

现在感觉就像那个时刻。

This feels like a similar moment.

作为投资者，我认为即使你现在非常看好Meta，至少也要把这一点放在心上。

And as an investor, I think that should at least you at least need to keep that in mind even if you are very, very bullish about Meta right now.

至少要把这种下行风险或潜在风险考虑进去。

It should at least that downside or that risk should be in your head.

另一个我们还没有很好答案的问题是，他们打算怎么靠这个赚钱。

The other thing that we don't have a great answer to is how they're gonna monetize this.

马克·扎克伯格说过，嘿，我们只需要从每次通过Muse进行的交易中抽取一小部分佣金。

You know, Mark Zuckerberg has said, hey, we'll just we'll take a small cut of each transaction that happens with Muse.

这需要人们把他们的凭证放进Muse里，比如信用卡，还得连接你的Uber账户或者Walmart账户，不管是什么。

That involves getting people to put their credentials in Muse, their credit card, you gotta connect to your Uber account or your Walmart account, whatever it is.

要建立信任，连接所有这些金融机构到Muse，这需要很多信任。

There's a lot of trust to be built there connecting all those, you know, financial institutions you can you can connect to Muse.

这可是个相当重的任务。

That's a that's a pretty heavy lift.

而且，我们在节目开始前聊过这个，但当我试用Muse的时候，如果你还没试过，我建议你真的去试试，连接一些风险比较低的东西，看看它有多强大，因为它在处理日常琐事上真的很有用。

And the thing that I we talked about this before the show, but I when I tried out Muse, and if you have not tried it, I do recommend that you just try it out, connect something that's kinda low risk and just see how powerful it is because it's been very useful for sort of basic day to day things.

但我不会连接我的财务信息。

But I'm not connecting, you know, my financial information.

我也不会连接那些它能帮我订机票之类的账户，因为那感觉有点过头了，而且就目前来说，自己做这些事也挺容易的。

I'm not connecting, you know, a lot of these accounts that they that it can, like, go book flights for me because that just seems like a bridge too far, and it's it's easy enough to do those things where we stand today.

好吧。

Alright.

嗯，Travis，还有一件事。

Well, Travis, just one more thing.

就算你真的打算那么做，我也知道一分钱一分钱加起来也是不少钱，这些事就是这么运作的。

Even if you were going to do that, I know a trillion pennies adds up, and that's how these things work.

但当你每年在计算上花几千亿美元，而且习惯了两位数的投资资本回报率，我甚至不确定，就算每个人都注册了所有服务。

But when you're spending hundreds of billions of dollars a year on compute and you are used to a double digit return on invested capital, I don't even know even if everyone does sign up for everything.

那也只是很多额外的费用。

That's a lot of just incremental fees.

对，是的。

I yeah.

我不知道这里怎么才能回本。

I don't know how the payoff happens here.

别忘了Meta在广告方面有非常出色的商业模式，而且他们似乎要转向的联盟模式是否一定更好，还不清楚。

Don't forget that Meta has a phenomenal business model in advertising, and it isn't quite clear if the affiliate, model that they seem to be going to is necessarily better.

但产品确实很棒。

But phenomenal product.

我想给马克·扎克伯格点赞，因为这是个好产品。

I wanna give Mark Zuckerberg credit because this is a great product.

他大约一年前雇的那些人，花了几百亿美元收购公司、招揽人才，至少现在看起来是值得的。

It seems like the people that he hired about a year ago spending several tens of billions of dollars acquiring, companies and hiring talent is at least paying off for right now.

我们回来之后，要聊聊新墨西哥州那边的情况。

When we come back, we're gonna talk about what's going on in New Mexico.

你正在收听的是 Motley Fool 的 Hidden Gems 投资节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

你刚刚发现你的销售团队可能完不成销售指标了。

You just found out that your sales team is at risk of missing quota.

别慌。

Don't panic.

直接问问 Rippling AI 吧。

Just ask Rippling AI.

因为它基于你实时的人员和业务数据，Rippling AI 可以把 Rippling 和 Salesforce 里的数据整合到一个会议用的仪表盘上，显示销售指标完成情况、人员编制计划，以及各地区的月度收入与销售指标对比。

Since it's built on your real time people and business data, Rippling AI can pull metrics from Rippling and Salesforce into a meeting ready dashboard showing quota attainment, headcount plan, and monthly revenue to quota by region.

几秒钟内，你就能清楚看到销售指标风险背后的原因，并在指标未完成之前及时解决。

In seconds, you'll see exactly what's behind your quota risk and fix it before it's missed.

问题解决了，行动也采取了，危机化解了。

Question answered, action taken, crisis averted.

当你有关键的业务问题需要答案时，不要只是提交一个工单，然后等上几周才能拿到过时的报告。

When you have critical business questions that need answers, don't just file a ticket and wait weeks for an outdated report.

描述你的需求，让Rippling AI根据你实时的人员和业务数据即时构建，无论是带有详细图表的仪表板，还是带有正确触发器、条件和审批的自动化工作流。

Describe what you need and have Rippling AI build it instantly from your live people and business data, whether it's a dashboard with detailed charts or automated workflows with the right triggers, conditions, and approvals.

准备好掌控你的业务了吗？

Ready to rule your business?

前往rippling.ai/fool，获取唯一能让你全面了解情况并在整个组织中执行复杂操作的AI。

Head to rippling.ai/fool to get the only AI built to give you full visibility and take complex actions across your entire organization.

网址是rippling.ai/fool。

That's rippling.ai/fool.

今天就注册获取独家访问权限，rippling.ai/fool。

Sign up for exclusive access today, rippling.ai/fool.

欢迎回到Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

这周，甲骨文公司援引了不可抗力条款。

This week, Oracle invoked Force Majeure.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我这么说对吗，卢？

Am I saying that right, Lou?

差不多吧。

Basically.

在

On

它的一个星际之门合同上。

one of its Stargate contracts.

卢，什么是不可抗力？

Lou, what is a Force Majeure?

我觉得从法语字面上看，它的意思是“更强的力量”。

So I think literally in French, it means superior force.

这是一个法律术语。

It's a legal term.

大多数合同里都有这个条款，但有趣的是我们很少听到它，其实它就是一个安全网。

It's kind of baked away in most contracts, but you the interesting thing is we don't hear about it, but basically it's a safety net.

就是说，如果发生了意想不到的、无法控制的事件，我就可以以此为借口不履行合同义务。

It is if there is an unexpected uncontrollable event, I have an excuse not to fulfill my duties as part of a contract.

按理说它不该被频繁使用，但现实就是这样。

It's it's not supposed to be running a mill, but here we are.

就像Lou说的，你很少听到这个条款。

To Lou's point, I mean, he just said, you don't hear about it very often.

这背后是有原因的。

There's a reason for that.

在来到这个节目之前，我从事能源项目融资工作。

Prior to coming to the floor, I worked in energy project finance.

所有这些合同都有不可抗力条款，但除非发生特别重大的事件，否则它被视为这类合同中的最后手段。

All of these contracts have force majeure options, but outside of something extraordinary happening, it's kind of considered like the nuclear option when it comes to these types of contracts.

在我看来，这可不是常规业务。

It's not, in my opinion, routine business.

而且我觉得特别有意思的是，甲骨文和它的交易对手都在把这件事轻描淡写，好像没什么大不了的。

And I it's so interesting to me that Oracle and its its counterparties here are all making this out to be like, oh, nothing to see here.

艾米丽，最让我震惊的就是他们居然把这事儿给糊弄过去了。

That that's what was really striking to me, Emily, is that they have kind of blown this off.

股价稍微跌了一点，然后又回升了。

The stock was down a little bit, and it recovered.

当时感觉就像，哎呀，没事儿。

And it was kinda like, ah, no.

我是说，现在OpenAI的剩余履约义务是持有甲骨文股票的一个重要理由。

This is I mean, this the remaining performance obligations from OpenAI are a major reason to own Oracle's stock today.

我们什么时候才能真正看到不可抗力条款被启用呢？

When do we actually see Force Majeure used?

因为这种事情平时很少上头条。

Because this doesn't this isn't something that gets headlines very often.

那么，历史上这种情况我们什么时候听到过更多呢？

So when has historically this been something that we've we've heard more about?

我觉得，新冠疫情就是一个很好的例子。

So, I mean, COVID is a great example.

通常是在极端且不可预见的情况下，才会有人想要解除合同。

Extreme non foreseeable situations are typically when you'll have somebody looking to get out of a contract.

当然，不幸的是，我们并不了解甲骨文和其开发者之间的合同细节。

And unfortunately, of course, we don't have we're not privy to the contract that exists between Oracle and its developer.

但我们确实有一些线索。

But we do have some indication.

有报道称，甲骨文可能需要负责为这个数据中心供应能源、采购电力。

There's been some reports that Oracle is is on the hook, I suppose, for supplying energy, procuring power for this data center.

我们也看到一些头条新闻，说这可能是个挑战，包括获得相关批准也是交易的一部分。

And we've seen headlines that that might be a challenge and including getting approvals as part of this deal.

如果让我猜的话，我猜他们是想援引不可抗力条款，因为他们确实无法在预期的时间内获得所需的电力。

And if I had to venture a guess, I would imagine they're trying to invoke force majeure because they're really unable to get the power that they need within the timeline they expected.

因此，他们预计项目无法按期完工。

And as a result, they don't expect the project to meet its construction period.

不过，还是值得提一下，大家都说情况并非如此。

Although, again, worth noting that everybody is saying that's not the case.

我们还是会赶上所有截止日期的。

We're still gonna meet all these deadlines.

我再说一遍，如果背后没有什么让你特别担心的事情，你不会去援引不可抗力条款。

I again, I don't think you invoke force majeure if nothing is going on behind the scenes that has you particularly concerned.

如果背后没有什么让你特别担心的事情，那为什么甲骨文要为了这点合同上的钱，搞得自己负面新闻缠身呢？

And if nothing is going on behind the scenes that has you particularly concerned, then why is Oracle basically fighting for pennies on this contract by getting negative headlines?

这又引出了另一个问题：这是否预示着甲骨文目前的财务状况亮起了黄灯？

It begs another question about, is this a yellow flag for the financial state of Oracle right now?

我觉得，是的。

I think they yeah.

为什么是他们，为什么是现在，这才是这件事最有趣的地方。

The the why them and why now is the most interesting part of this.

至于为什么是他们，你看。

And the why them look.

是甲骨文而不是Alphabet或Meta，我并不意外。

I'm not surprised that it's Oracle and not Alphabet or Meta.

你知道，我们之前聊过相对实力的问题，不是说甲骨文没钱。

Know, we've talked about just the relative strength and not that Oracle doesn't have any money.

他们也有成熟的业务，但他们从一开始就是那类公司。

They have an established business too, but they've been the ones since the beginning.

有意思的是，这阵容挺全的。

It's funny, this is a cast of characters.

基本上谁都在里面。

This is everyone.

Blue Owl也参与了，我们之前聊过的那些公司都在，真的假的？

Blue Owl is involved here, everyone that we've been talking about like, oh, really?

所以可能这就是原因吧。

In this, so maybe that's it.

但为什么是现在呢，因为正如艾米丽所说，我一直在关注这件事，但这个项目就像许多数据中心项目一样，已经连续几个月受到打击了。

But why now too, because to Emily's point, I mean, I've been watching this, but this project has been sort of like many data center projects kind of taking punches for months now.

我在想，是不是甲骨文的某个贷款方开始紧张了？

I wonder, is one of Oracle's lenders getting nervous?

甲骨文是不是想重新回到债务市场？

Is Oracle looking to go back to debt markets?

这就是他们面临的问题，所以他们想在这里展示一下实力。

And this is the question they're getting, so they're trying to kind of flex here.

当然，这可能完全是阴谋论。

I mean, it could just be total conspiracy theory.

也可能只是甲骨文在做季度末评估，然后意识到，好吧，我们需要更新这个。

It could just be Oracle's doing their end of quarter assessment and realizes, okay, this is we we need to update this.

但我确实觉得，是的。

But I do think that it's yeah.

这不是什么常规操作，也许它只是在告诉我们一些我们已经知道的事情，那就是我们之前对这群玩家相对于其他人的实力有所怀疑，是对的。

This is not something that is routine, and it is it maybe it's just telling us what we already know that we were right to wonder about this particular group of players relative strength compared to others.

但有趣的是，特拉维斯，我觉得这件事要么以后就再也不会被提起，要么就会成为我们年终回顾时最大的新闻。

But the funny thing about this, Travis, is that I can see us doing I I can see this never coming up again, or I can see this being the biggest story when we do a year in review.

这就像是贝尔斯登时刻。

This is like the Bear Stearns moment.

我觉得两种可能都有。

I mean, I think both is possible.

都有可能。

Possible.

要么这件事只会成为一个小注脚，要么到了年底我们会想，哇，为什么我们当初没有更关注这件事？

Either this will be a footnote or like, yeah, we'll get to the end of year and like, wow, why weren't we more focused on this?

我觉得两种可能都存在。

I think both are possible.

而且有点可怕的是，我完全不知道哪种会成真。

And it's kind of terrifying that I have no idea which one is true.

如果你看数据的话，我刚查了甲骨文截至2026年8月季度的资产负债表，现金有370亿美元，债务大约1250亿美元。

If you look at the numbers, I just pulled up Oracle's balance sheet as of their August twenty twenty six quarter, $37,000,000,000 worth of cash, about a $125,000,000,000 worth of debt.

我一直在关注的一个问题是，这些债务成本在发生什么变化？

And one of the things that I track is what are those debt costs doing?

我经常关注的两家公司是甲骨文和Core Weave，它们的债务成本已经飙升了。

And the two companies that I look at pretty regularly is Oracle and Core Weave, and the cost of that debt has exploded.

所以，Emily，看起来这里的挑战是，你知道，整个市场都在押注AI建设，但从超大规模云服务商到Neo Clouds再到甲骨文，这个建设现在都是靠债务支撑的。

So, Emily, it seems like that's the the challenge here is, you know, this entire market is invested in this AI build out, but that build out from the bit hyperscalers to the Neo Clouds to Oracle is now being built on debt.

债务成本在上升。

That cost of debt is going up.

对所有人来说都在上升，但对这些公司来说上升得更厉害，因为债券市场开始发出信号，嘿。

It's going up it's going up for everyone, but it's also going up more for these companies that are because bond markets are starting to say, hey.

这里真的会有大回报吗？

Is there really a big payoff here?

你可以看看很多债务的信用违约利差，尤其是甲骨文的，你会发现这些利差有多宽，这确实表明在二级市场上，需求并不大，也就是说，那些承担这些债务的人，购买这些债务的人，会以相对于预期回报相当大的折扣来接手，这我觉得很能说明这些公司背后的感知风险。

And you can look at the credit default spreads on a lot of the debt, especially Oracle's, and you can see how wide those spreads are, which does indicate that on the secondary markets, there's not lots of demand, so to speak, in the sense that people who are taking on these obligations, right, Purchasers of this debt would be taking it on for a pretty substantial discount to what your expected returns would be, which I think says a lot about, the perceived risk behind a lot of these companies.

不过我觉得值得指出的是，甲骨文，我之前说过，现在再重复一遍。

Now I do think it's worth noting like Oracle, I've I've said this before, and I'll repeat it again.

对我来说，它就像是煤矿里的金丝雀，因为它杠杆率太高了。

It's kind of the canary in the coal mine to me because it is so heavily levered.

它刚刚遭遇了信用评级下调。

It just faced a credit rating downgrade.

它们的自由现金流是负的。

They're free cash flow negative.

它们没有像其他许多超大规模云服务商在启动这些大规模数据中心等建设和扩张计划时所拥有的那种强大资产负债表。

They didn't have the incredible balance sheet that a lot of the other hyperscalers had when they started to make these initiatives and these build outs of things like massive data centers.

所以，当我在想多米诺骨牌倒下的情景时，如果有人认为它们会倒下，Oracle 就像是第一张可能被推倒的多米诺骨牌。

So when I think about the dominoes falling to the extent that somebody thinks they're going to fall, Oracle is kind of like that first domino that could be tipped.

这就是为什么我们如此关注他们为什么在这种情况下，如果无法援引不可抗力条款，会对几年后的租金上涨如此斤斤计较。

And that's why we have so much focus on why they're, in this case, penny pinching over what would be a rent increase in a couple of years if they weren't able to force majeure.

所以这就引出了一个问题：为什么是这件事？

So it does beg the question of like, why this?

为什么是现在？

Why now?

而且，如果甲骨文开始出问题，还有谁也可能受影响呢？

And, if it starts to happen to Oracle, who else could it happen to as well?

所以，我尽量务实一点，我觉得这一切可能是好事或者有影响的原因是这样的。

So here is I'm I'm trying to be a pragmatist here, here's why I think all this could be a good thing or matter.

因为像我们这样的人，律师、评论员，大家一直在争论不休。

It's because there's people like us, lawyers, pundits, everybody has been arguing forever.

好吧。

Alright.

那么，Blue Owl在这里有风险吗？

Well, is Blue Owl exposed here?

没有。

No.

甲骨文在这里没有风险。

Oracle isn't exposed here.

我们为什么不直接去把这事说清楚呢？

Why don't we just go hash it out?

我不知道。

I don't know.

如果他们真的这么做了，至少我们不用再只是争论法律后果和谁该负责什么，也许我们能在一个真实案例上得到一些明确答案。

If they actually follow through here, at least instead of just debating legal ramifications and who's on the hook for where, what, maybe we'll get a little clarity on a non hypothetical.

也许吧。

Maybe.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我不是希望Oracle出事，但如果这件事真的发生了，我们也许能真正回答这些问题，而不是光靠猜测。

Like, I don't wish Oracle harm, but maybe if this plays out, we can actually answer some of these questions instead of just speculate about them.

这太有意思了。

It's so interesting.

我们节目早些时候聊过那些即将推出的人工智能产品。

We talked earlier in the show about the AI products that are coming out.

那些产品真是了不起。

Those are incredible.

我觉得我们谁都不会否认，现在确实有很多重要的技术在开发中。

I don't think any of us are debating that there's a ton of important technology being built.

但在这背后，商业模式是什么呢？

But then underneath it is what's the business model?

谁来承担所有这些债务呢？

Who's gonna pay for all this debt?

就连像Meta这样的公司，我们也没有一个很好的答案。

And even a company like Meta, we don't have a great answer.

所以在2027年剩下的时间里，还有很多这样的问题等着我们。

So lots of that to come over the course of the rest of the year in 2027.

我们稍后回来。

We'll be back in a moment.

有人说，领导力不仅仅在于你要去哪里。

They say leadership isn't just about where you're going.

更在于你到达那里所需要的信念。

It's about the conviction it takes to get there.

对于那些追求极致、有决心去拥有它的人来说，有一款同样卓越的座驾。

For those who demand the world and possess the drive to claim it, there's a vehicle of equal distinction.

设计动感，性能纯粹，路虎揽胜运动版在你领跑的那一刻，就为你而来。

Dynamic by design and engineered for pure impact, the Range Rover Sport rises to meet you the moment you take the lead.

这是迄今为止最先进的路虎揽胜运动版，堪称毫不妥协的性能与无拘无束的敏捷性的典范。

This is the most advanced Range Rover Sport yet, a master class in uncompromised performance and unbridled agility.

车内，创新无处不在。

Inside, the innovation is seamless.

你会发现一块优雅的13.1英寸触控屏，让车辆系统的全面控制尽在指尖。

You'll find an elegant 13.1 inch touchscreen that puts total control of the vehicle's systems right at your fingertips.

但真正让它与众不同的是那份精致。

But it's the refinement that sets it apart.

雕塑般的22向加热座椅，内置按摩功能，确保每一次旅程都拥有无与伦比的舒适。

Sculpted 22 way heated seating with built in massage function ensures every journey is defined by peerless comfort.

无论是独特的内饰装饰，还是定制的轮毂选项，个性化你的路虎揽胜运动版的方式几乎无穷无尽。

Whether it's through unique interior finishes or custom wheel options, the ways to personalize your Range Rover Sport are nearly unlimited.

吸引目光，尽享极致奢华驾乘体验。

Command attention and experience ultimate luxury in motion.

现在有独家优惠。

Exclusive offers are available now.

更多详情，请访问 rangerover.com。

Explore further at rangerover.com.

每周日，我们都会在《本周科技》中回顾一周的科技新闻。

Every Sunday, we cover the week's tech news on This Week in Tech.

大家好。

Hi.

我是 TWIT 播客网络的 Leo LaPorte，邀请您与 Jacob Ward、Molly White 和 Harry McCracken 一起，聊聊针对 Meta 的那场大官司的结局，以及这对我们意味着什么。

This is Leo LaPorte from the TWIT Podcasting Network inviting you to join me with Jacob Ward, Molly White, and Harry McCracken as we talk about the end of the big lawsuit against Meta and what it means for us.

NVIDIA 砸重金进军 AI 软件领域，还有关于 Hugging Face 攻击事件的真实细节。

NVIDIA spending lots of money trying to get into the AI software game and real details on that hugging face attack.

你听到的会让你震惊。

What you hear will shock you.

你可以在twit.tv以及任何你收听播客的地方找到它。

You'll find it at twit.tv and wherever you get your podcasts.

欢迎回到Motley Fool的隐藏宝石投资节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

在这个环节，我们喜欢在投资中找点乐子。

In this segment, we like to have a little fun with investing.

所以我想给2026年的顶级科技产品排个名。

So I wanted to rank the top tech products of 2026.

这周我们拿到了Meta的新款Charm和一些新眼镜。

We got the new charm and some new glasses from Meta this week.

那它在苹果Duo、Waymo的OG里能排第几呢？

So where does that rank with Apple Duo, Waymo's, OG?

那是他们的新车型吗？

Is that is that their new vehicle?

不太清楚具体是什么。哦，你好？

Don't know exact Oh, hi?

是这么说的吗？可能对吧。

Is that how you say that's probably right?

比我说的好听多了。

Sounds better than what I said.

Fitbit Air 或者 Garmin Circa。

Fitbit Air or the Garmin Circa.

这些新手表其实没有表盘。

So these new smart watches that don't actually have a watch on them.

它们只是帮你连接数据。

They're just kinda connecting your data.

Oura Ring。

The Aura Ring.

顺便说一句，Oura 可能在未来一周左右上市。

Aura, by the way, gonna be going public here maybe in the next week or so.

还有 Figure Helix 3，这款人形机器人还买不到，但谁知道呢。

And the Figure Helix three, can't quite buy this humanoid robot yet, but I don't know.

要是它能帮我叠衣服，那可能还真有点价值。

It's a bit if it can fold my laundry, it may actually be worth something.

所以，Emily，今天我想让你给这些产品排个序。

So, Emily, those are the products that I want you to rank today.

哪一个能带来最高的终身利润？

Which one is going to have the most lifetime profit?

到最后

At the end

今天的

of the day,

我们是投资者。

we're investors.

我们想要能赚钱的产品。

We want products that make money.

哪款产品真正能为这些公司带来收益呢？

Which one's actually gonna make money for these companies?

他第一次问这个问题的时候，我心里想，销售额，这个简单。

When he first asked this question, I was thinking to myself, sales, that's an easy one.

不。

No.

但利润确实给这个问题增加了额外的维度。

But profits really does add an extra dimension here.

而且我觉得，就我个人而言，第一个产品，我敢跟任何人争论。

And I think in my opinion, I I think I'll fight anybody who disagrees with me on the first one.

肯定是Apple Duo。

It has to be the Apple Duo.

就是苹果那款翻盖手机。

The flip phone from Apple.

他们售价将近2000美元。

They're selling it for nearly $2,000.

他们规模最大，公司利润高得惊人。

They have by far the biggest scale, incredibly profitable company.

我是说，苹果从不失手。

I mean, Apple does not miss.

说到这点，你真是太小看苹果的人了，如果你觉得他们做这个不赚钱的话，他们根本不会做。

To that point, you're really, really insulting the people at Apple if they you think that they are going to do this if they can't make a profit on it.

他们不会的。

They're not.

他们一年前就推出了Air，iPhone Air。

They introduced the Air, the iPhone Air a year ago.

我们现在已经在说它基本上要停产了，因为卖得不太好。

We're already talking about that that essentially coming to its end of life because it hasn't sold very well.

你觉得Duo不会这样吗？

You don't think that's possible for the duo?

当然有可能，但我要说，Travis，他给我们的这个名单，门槛设得挺低的。

It's certainly possible, but I will say, Travis, with this list he gave us, he set the bar pretty low.

挺低的。

Pretty low.