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Meta Platforms 躲过了一颗价值一万四千亿美元的子弹。
Meta Platforms dodges a $1,400,000,000,000 bullet.
Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资节目现在开始。
Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.
欢迎收听 Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资节目。
Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.
我是你们的主持人 Crowe。
I'm your host, Crowe.
今天和我一起的是长期为 Fool 撰稿的 Rachel Warren 和 Lou Whiteman。
And today, I'm joined by long time Fool contributors, Rachel Warren and Lou Whiteman.
两位,这里我借用一下之前主持人的说法。
Guys, a little bit of a using a term from a prior host here.
我觉得今天新闻女神真的眷顾了我们,给我们今天的节目送来了额外的素材,因为 Meta Platforms 一直官司缠身。
I think the news fairy really came in and and gave us an extra little little doubt for the for the show today because Meta Platforms has had its fair share of lawsuits out there.
之前在新墨西哥州有一个案子,法院命令他们支付近十亿美元的未决罚款。
There was there was one back in New Mexico where courts ordered to pay almost $1,000,000,000 in filings outstanding.
但看起来很多情况都在改变,因为它刚刚就一起集体诉讼与多个州达成了大规模和解,而且看起来总成本会比预期的要低得多。
But looks like a lot of that is changing because it just agreed to a massive settlement with several states on a class action lawsuit, and it looks like the total cost of this is gonna be a lot less expensive than expected.
瑞秋,具体细节是什么?
Rachel, what were the details of this?
对。
Yeah.
我的意思是,要真正理解Meta为什么会走到这一步,我们得先看看这起诉讼是关于什么的。
I mean, to really understand how Meta ended up here, we kinda have to look at what this was about.
所以,一群州检察长联合起诉了Meta,指控该公司故意将Facebook和Instagram设计成对儿童有瘾性。
So you had a coalition of state attorneys general that sued Meta, and they accused the company of deliberately designing Facebook and Instagram to be, addictive to children.
诉讼指出了很多功能,比如无限滚动、算法推荐、不断推送的通知。
And it pointed to the lawsuits pointed to a wide range of features, infinite scrolling, algorithmic recommendations, constant push notifications.
我们最近看到新墨西哥州在对Meta的单独诉讼中胜诉了,而且加州的一名联邦法官当时正准备让扎克伯格本人出庭作证。
We saw recently that New Mexico had won a separate trial against META, and a federal judge in California was actually about to drag Zuckerberg himself to the witness stand.
实际上,我记得就在昨天,Instagram的负责人亚当·莫塞里已经出庭作证了。
In fact, we saw I believe it was just yesterday, the head of Instagram, Adam Mosseri, had testified.
所以现在Meta已经同意以170亿美元的赔偿来解决47个州的诉讼。
So now META has agreed to a $17,000,000,000 settlement to resolve the claims of 47 states.
不过Meta不会只开一张支票。
Now META is not gonna be just cutting one check.
他们实际上会支付120亿美元的基础金额,这笔钱会分给各州,用于资助青少年心理健康和成瘾康复项目。
They're actually paying a $12,000,000,000 baseline amount, and that's gonna be distributed to the states to fund youth mental health addiction recovery programs.
但剩下的几十亿,大约50亿美元,只有在Meta的主要竞争对手,比如TikTok、YouTube(当然归Alphabet所有)、Snap,也和各州达成和解并同意面临类似的财务处罚时才会生效。
But the remaining billions, about 5,000,000,000, actually only kicks in if META's top competitors, think, you know, TikTok, YouTube, of course, owned by Alphabet, Snap, also settled with the states and agreed to face similar financial penalties.
所以这是和解协议中一个非常有意思的部分。
So that's a very interesting element of the settlement.
除了财务部分,和解协议还要求Meta接受一个独立审计师的监督,审计师有权访问数据,以确保他们遵守协议的条款。
Now aside from the financial element of it, the settlement binds META to an independent auditor with data access to ensure that they are, you know, adhering, to the terms of this agreement.
和解协议还强制要求在全美范围内进行全面的产品变更,专门保护不同年龄段的人群。
It also the settlement enforces sweeping permanent product changes across The US that specifically protect different age brackets.
比如,针对13岁以下儿童的新年龄验证工具,针对18岁以下青少年的每日两小时使用时间限制,以及关闭推送通知。
For example, new age verification tools for children 13, daily two hour time limits for teenagers 18, silencing of push notifications.
所以对年轻用户来说,变化挺大的。
So a lot of changes there for young users.
很多州的司法部长都说,这是除九十年代烟草大案之外,美国历史上最大的一起州级消费者保护和解案。
The way a lot of the state's attorneys general are framing it is it's the largest state consumer protection settlement in history outside of the big tobacco deals of the nineteen nineties.
这确实会改变未成年人未来的网络环境。
It does very much change the Internet for minors moving forward.
对。
Yeah.
我在节目开始前试着算了一下,这个和解案在企业历史上能排到第几位。
I was trying to do the math before the show on where this landed in terms of, like, the biggest settlements, in corporate history.
我们当然有大烟草公司那桩。
It was it was we had big tobacco, obviously.
还有深水地平线那个。
You know, there was the Deepwater Horizon one.
那个是六百亿美元。
It was, $60,000,000,000.
不过它绝对能排进前五。
It's definitely in, like, the top five, though.
我觉得最大的司法部和解案,比如安然,也就只有70亿美元。
I think the biggest, like, you know, DOJ settlement was, like, Enron, and that was only $7,000,000,000.
所以这绝对是个巨额和解,是的。
So definitely a massive settlement here Yeah.
至少从数字上看是这样。
At least on a raw number here.
不过话说回来,我们在新墨西哥州已经损失了10亿美元,还有48个州和47个州准备提起类似的集体诉讼,以及各州自己的诉讼。
At the same time I say that, though, we had 1,000,000,000 in losses to New Mexico with forty forty eight, 47 states in line to do similar class action lawsuits as well as state stuff here.
看起来那次损失,卢,某种程度上影响了这次和解的决定,因为我觉得他们预期的损失远高于1.617万亿美元,或者最终的数字会是多少。
It seems like that loss, Lou, kind of influenced this decision to settle here because I think the losses they were looking at were expected way higher than $1,617,000,000,000 or whatever the final number is gonna be here.
对。
Right.
我想这里的说法是,各州总检察长会说,行为上的改变如此重大,值得这么做,比如夜间模式、上学期间不通知,所有这些。
I guess the spin here is the attorneys general would say the change in conduct is so significant that it's worth it, the night mode, the no notifications during school, all of that.
但表面上,这笔钱的部分确实让人有点失望。
But on on the surface, the monetary side of this is just kind of what's gotta be a letdown.
我算了一下,假设是52个当事方,48个州加上4个领地。
By my account, looking at the let's say it was it was 52 parties, 48 states plus, four territories.
分摊下来,每个州大约3.4亿美元,前提是像Rachel说的,全额17亿到账。
Break it down, that's about 340,000,000 per state, assuming, as Rachel said, the full 17 comes in.
相比之下,新墨西哥州拿到了近10亿。
New Mexico got almost a billion by comparison.
所以,是的,这绝对比一个一个打官司要划算得多,而且还能省时间。
So, yeah, definitely, this is a better monetary, outcome for META than having to go through all of these one by one and, again, the time too.
对。
Yeah.
在和解宣布之前,彭博社有篇报道说,Meta的一些律师曾表示,损失可能接近1.415万亿,基本上相当于公司的整个市值,这是基于他们的预测,如果新墨西哥案能拿到近10亿,那其他案子加起来可能就是这个数。
One of the Bloomberg stories that came out before this settlement was announced this morning was some of META's lawyers had said that the losses here could be almost $1.41500000000000, basically the entire market cap of the company based on their kind of projections of, well, if this New Mexico case did almost 1,000,000,000, this is what the rest could look like.
所以显然,16、17、18,不管最终数字是多少,都远远低于这个数。
So obviously, sixteen, seventeen, 18, whatever the number is, it's it's definitely a lot less.
现在还有一些案件没有解决。
Now there are still several cases outstanding.
这只是联邦层面的。
This is just the federal ones.
还有一些州层面的。
So there's some state ones.
还有一些地方层面的。
There's some local ones.
可能还会有更多案件浮出水面。
There still could be some more coming out of this.
我想把话题转到投资者这边,因为你知道,像META这样的公司,大笔资本支出是常有的事。
I I wanna turn this to the investor side because, you know, big capital outlays for a company like META.
五年前我可能会说,这大概不是什么大问题,因为这家公司现金流非常充裕。
I I would have said five years ago, probably not a big deal because this is a business that has cash coming out of its ears.
但现在他们为了AI基础设施,有大量的资本支出需求,还做了很多表外交易之类的,这会不会以任何方式改变META在资本支出和AI基础设施方面的计划呢?
But now that they've got all of this capital spending requirements for AI infrastructure, doing a lot of off balance sheet deals and stuff like that, does this in any way alter META's plans for capital spending and AI infrastructure ambitions at all?
至少目前不会。
Not for now, at least.
这笔总支出大约只占Meta计划在2026年AI投入的12%。
The total outlay here is about 12% of what Meta intends to spend on AI in 2026 alone.
我怀疑他们今年也不会一次性付清所有和解金。
I doubt they'll write that check for all of this settlement in this year too.
所以他们在这方面有很大的回旋余地。
So they have a lot of wiggle room here.
你看,这比他们2026年计划用于股票薪酬的支出还少,这么一对比就清楚了。
Look, this is less than they're going to spend on stock based compensation in 2026, just put in perspective.
这笔支出只有在长期才会影响他们的投入,前提是和解真的能改变人们的行为,让那台神奇的印钞机少印不少钱。
The only way that this impacts spending is long term, if the settlement really does change human behavior and somehow make the magic money printing machine print significantly less money.
我可能不太看好这种情况,而且我肯定不会去假设它会发生。
I'll probably take the under on that, and I'm definitely not gonna assume that.
但就目前而言,这只是让Meta回归正常运营的一种方式,我觉得这也是他们开出那张大额支票的动机。
But for now, this is a way for META to just get back to business as usual, which I think was the motivation of writing that big check.
对。
Yeah.
不。
No.
我觉得这完全正确。
I I think that's absolutely correct.
我的意思是,从产品角度来看,我认为用户确实能得到一些好处。
I mean, from a product perspective, I think there are some wins for users.
从财务角度来看,这毫无疑问是Meta的胜利。
From a financial perspective, this is without equivocation a win for META.
我的意思是,即使其他案件还在悬而未决,这也不会打乱他们的资本支出计划。
I mean, even with the other cases still looming, this is not gonna derail their their CapEx, plans.
我认为这绝不会影响他们在AI基础设施上的雄心。
I don't think it's going to in any way touch their AI infrastructure ambitions.
我的意思是,我们确实看到了Meta的股价。
I mean, we actually saw META stock.
我不知道在我们录制的时候股价是多少,但消息一出就涨了,因为基本上这个和解给可能面临的重大责任设了一个上限,而且赔付金额比我们之前想的可能性要少好几个数量级。
I I I don't know where it is at the time we're recording it, but it ticked up right after the news broke because, essentially, this settlement has put a a cap on the, significant liability that it was potentially facing, and it's going to be paying out, orders of magnitude less than what we had thought could be a possibility.
考虑到Meta去年光收入就达到数千亿美元,这样的赔付,而且是分期支付的。
When you consider that Meta pulled in hundreds of billions in revenue last year alone, a payout like this, it's structured over time.
对他们的资产负债表来说,简直就是九牛一毛。
It's quite literally a drop in the bucket for their balance sheet.
这就是Meta的现实。
And and that that's the reality for Meta.
我开始认同这个观点了。
I'm starting to come around to this idea.
要惩罚像Meta这么大的公司确实很难,因为他们有庞大的资金储备和巨大的市值,160亿美元听起来是个巨额和解,但你知道,这还不到他们整个市值的1%。
If it's it's hard to penalize a company as big as META when they have these massive coffers, these massive market caps where $16,000,000,000 sounds like a massive settlement, but, you know, we're talking about less than 1% of their entire market cap here.
这个问题我们接下来在问题列表里会谈到。
It is a question we're actually gonna get to in a list of question coming up.
但在那之前,休息之后,我们会深入分析Intuit的财报。
But before we do that, coming up after the break, we're gonna dive into Intuit's earnings.
工作中最有效率的人并不是比别人更努力。
The most effective people at work aren't working harder than everyone else.
他们是在更好的系统里更聪明地工作。
They're working smarter inside better systems.
Superhuman GO,来自Grammarly的制造商,是一款AI聊天工具,能在你已使用的每个工具中运行,随时待命,并且已经了解你正在做什么。
Superhuman GO from the makers of Grammarly is the AI chat that works inside every tool you already use, always ready and already aware of what you're working on.
它就像一个队友,唯一的任务就是帮你把工作做得更好。
It's a teammate whose only job is to help you be better at yours.
有GOOGL在你身边,你可以尽情展示你的最佳表现。
With GOOGL with you, you can show off what you do best.
去superhuman.com看看Superhuman GO能做什么。
See what Superhuman GO can do at superhuman.com.
网址是superhuman.com。
That's superhuman.com.
税务和会计软件公司Intuit公布财报后,我们录制时,其股价下跌了约3.5%。
Shares of tax and accounting software company Intuit are down about three and a half percent as we tape after the company reported earnings.
我觉得在开盘前,股价跌了差不多10%。
I think before the market opened, shares were down almost 10%.
我觉得是财报和增长预期下调这两方面因素叠加的结果。
I think some combination of earnings and slower, growth forecasts being revised down.
这可不是市场想看到的。
That wasn't exactly what the market was looking for.
Lou,实际数字到底怎么样?
Lou, what did the numbers actually look like?
真的有那么差吗?
Were they really that bad?
我是说,从市场反应来看,这个季度我们见过更糟的。
I mean, I guess based on the market reaction, we've seen a lot worse this quarter.
你说得对。
You said it, though.
这差不多就是本财报季的主旋律了。
It's been the kind of the story of this earnings season.
从预期来看,数字并不差,但预测令人失望。
The numbers weren't bad relative to expectations, but the forecast was disappointing.
他们实际上在营收和每股收益上都超出了预期。
They actually beat on revenue and earnings per share.
但在指引方面,他们下调了今年的增长目标。
But on guidance, they're lowering their growth targets for the year.
据他们所说,客户因为成本问题正在流失TurboTax,而像Credit Karma这样增长中的领域,其增长速度不足以弥补那里的损失。
Customers, according to them, are fleeing TurboTax due to the costs and areas that are growing like Credit Karma are not growing fast enough to offset the losses there.
所以这是对未来的反应,而不是对他们实际公布数据的反应。
So it's a looking forward reaction, not a reaction to what they actually posted.
Intuit是那些有点卷入SaaS末日论的公司之一。
Intuit is one of those companies that has gotten a little bit wrapped up in the SasSpocalyse.
你知道吗?
You know?
我知道Intuit不一定是一家SaaS公司,但如今基本上任何与软件相关的公司,都注定要被AI打败,因为显然每个人都会自己开发软件,让AI来处理税务之类的。
I know Intuit isn't necessarily a SaaS company, but basically anything that is software related these days is, you know, doomed by AI because everyone's just gonna apparently build all their own, software and barely have AI do all its your taxes or whatever.
这里真的是这种情况吗,还是说这其实只是管理层和投资者现在拿来当的简单借口?
Is that actually the case here, or is this maybe just like an easy excuse that management investors can use, when looking into it these days?
我选B。
I'm picking b here.
好的。
All right.
这跟AI没关系。
This isn't about AI.
AI还没到帮人报税的地步,也许将来会,不过我可不确定我准备好把那些信息都交给Grok。
AI is not doing anyone's taxes yet, maybe eventually, although I'm not sure I'm ready to give all that information to Grok.
我不知道你们怎么想。
I don't know about you guys.
而且也没有成千上万的企业,小企业,都在把他们的会计系统搬到云端。
And there aren't hundreds of thousands of businesses, small businesses that are just switching over all of their accounting systems to cloud.
对吧?
Okay?
Intuit一直以来的运营方式,或者说近几年,就像垄断企业一样,像公用事业公司一样。
Intuit has always been run or in recent years, it's been run like it's a monopoly, like it's a utility.
而公用事业公司的客户服务都很差。
And utilities have terrible customer service.
为什么?
Why?
因为你就得忍着。
Because deal with it.
你没办法。
You can't help it.
他们根本不听市场的。
They have not listened to the market.
我觉得他们这次有点措手不及。
They were kind of caught off sides here, I think.
在他们的评论中,客户离开TurboTax的首要原因是价格。
In their commentary, the top reason customers leave TurboTax was price.
他们没有在听客户的声音。
They weren't listening to their customers.
再加上他们做了几笔有问题的交易,结果都不太顺利,核心业务也面临压力。
Add in they've made a few questionable deals that haven't worked out, a core business under pressure.
这不是AI的问题。
This isn't AI.
这种情况下,管理层应该好好反省自己,问自己一些尖锐的问题。
This is a case where management should look in the mirror and ask itself hard questions.
对。
Yeah.
我倾向于同意。
I I tend to agree.
我也觉得这是那些糟糕的商业决策累积起来,现在开始反噬业务了。
I I do think that this is a a scenario where you have a series of bad business decisions catching up with the business.
我的意思是,多年来,Intuit利用它的优势,持续不断地提高TurboTax的价格。
I mean, for many years, Intuit leveraged its power to really kind of consistently and relentlessly raise prices on TurboTax.
你知道,很多报税的人每年春天都要付越来越多的钱。
You know, a lot of filers paying more and more each spring.
我们甚至看到,CEO都说价格现在是客户放弃TurboTax、转向更便宜的DIY替代品的首要原因。
We've even seen, you know, the CEO saying price is now the number one reason customers are abandoning TurboTax for cheaper DIY alternatives.
所以,这可不是技术上的失败。
So that's, you know, not a failure of technology.
这是商业上的错误。
That's a business error.
我觉得他们太贪心了,玩过头了,而且损害了消费者的好感。
I think they got greedy, overplayed their hand, and I think they damaged their consumer goodwill.
这就是为什么他们被迫大幅降价,接受增长放缓,希望能赢回失去的市场份额。
And that's why they're being forced to slash a lot of their prices and accept a slowdown in the hopes of winning back lost market share.
而且,我同意。
And, you know, I agree.
我知道人们不会把所有税务信息都喂给Claude,但事实是,很多生成式AI工具让这些小初创公司很容易就能构建出更便宜、免费、实用的对话式税务准备工具,这些工具能在几分钟内处理很多这类问题。
I know people aren't feeding all their tax information into Claude, but it is the case that a lot of generative AI tools have made it very simple for these small startups to build cheaper, free, useful conversational tax prep tools that can handle a lot of these elements in in minutes.
所以我觉得我们现在看到的是,很多投资者和华尔街都在看Intuit的核心业务,那个我们以为他们拥有的软件护城河,似乎正在迅速蒸发,而且在AI代理可以处理很多小企业会计或者帮助构建工具以极低成本完成这些工作的时代,变得有些过时了。
And so I think what we're seeing is a lot of investors, Wall Street looking at Intuit's core business, that software moat that maybe we thought they had seems to be rapidly evaporating and somewhat becoming obsolete in a time where, you know, AI agents can be handling a lot of these small business accounting or helping build tools to do that for pennies on the dollar.
所以我觉得Intuit在很多方面做了一系列错误的决定,才导致了今天的局面。
So I I think there are a lot of ways in which Intuit has made a series of bad decisions that that have led it to this moment.
最后再说一件事,因为他们还拥有几项资产。
One last thing as we come out here because what they own a couple properties.
显然,Credit Karma和Intuit的QuickBooks。
Obviously, Credit Karma and what's Intuit, QuickBook.
他们似乎是他们的大头,但我其实想稍微关注一下Credit Karma,因为那似乎是那种人们需要贷款买车、新项目或房子之类的时候才会去查信用评分的东西。
They were they seem to be like the the big ones for them, but I I actually wanted to focus on Credit Karma for a second because it does seem like that is one of those sort of things where people check their credit scores when they need to, you know, finance something large, a car, a new project, or a house, or anything like that.
有没有可能Intuit也受到了我们看到的住房支出放缓的影响,而且这又回到了我可能谈得太多的一个话题,就是住房。
Is there any possibility here where Intuit may also be suffering from this, like, housing spending slowdown that we're seeing here, and that, you know, bringing back to probably a topic that I talk about way too much here is like housing.
住房市场的回暖会不会至少重新激活这个业务的一个部分呢?
Could like an uplift in the housing market start to like reinvigorate at least one segment of this business here?
也许吧,但Credit Karma看起来比其他业务部分要强劲得多。
Maybe, but Credit Karma looked pretty strong relative to other parts of the business.
Mailchimp在收购中简直是个灾难。
Mailchimp has been a disaster among acquisitions.
他们就是一直没搞清楚该怎么处理它。
They just, they never really figured out what to do with it.
现在答案就是我们付清了钱,所以只能开始削减了。
Now the answer is we have repaid, so we gotta just start cutting.
我确信市场好转会带动Credit Karma,但我不认为答案在于更好的房贷市场,因为我觉得那并不是真正出问题的业务部分。
I'm sure the rising tide would lift the boat over at Credit Karma, but I don't think the answer is a better mortgage market because I don't think that's the part of the business that's really ailing.
这至少值得关注,比如管理层找借口解释为什么事情不太顺利,而不是像你们提到的那些方面做出实质性的改变。
It'll be something worth following, at least in the sense of, like, you know, management excuses as to why things aren't going quite right versus, you know, making tangible changes to the to the some of the points you guys made here.
休息之后,我们会进入听众来信环节。
Coming up after the break, we're gonna dip into the mailbag.
大家好。
Hey, everyone.
快速提醒一下。
Just a quick reminder.
如果你想在节目里听到你的问题被回答,就发邮件到 podcasts@fool.com 吧。
If you wanna have your question, answered on air, go ahead and email us at podcasts@fool.com.
是 podcast,后面带个 s。
That's podcast with an s.
另外,如果你需要的话,我也把邮箱放在节目简介里了。
Also, I've put the email in the show description if you need it there.
老规矩,三个提醒。
Three reminders as always.
第一,问题要简短。
Number one, keep it short.
第二,要有 Fool 的风格,而且我们不能给个性化建议,所以尽量问一些和个人无关的、跟股票或类似话题相关的问题。
Two, keep it foolish, and can't, give any personalized advice, so try to make it some sort of personal impersonal question related to, stocks or something like that.
今天的问题来自 Carolus Schimkus。
Today's question come from Carolus Schimkus.
希望我没念错他的名字。
I hope I pronounced that name right.
如果我没念对,我道歉。
If I didn't, I apologize.
这个问题其实跟我们刚才聊的,你知道,法律和解那些事有点关系。
This is actually a question kind of related to what we were talking about with, you know, legal settlements and stuff like that.
所以问题是,嘿,大家好。
So the question is, hey, guys.
你们刚聊了Uber在自动驾驶送餐方面的潜力,但他们可能面临欧洲8.25亿欧元的罚款,因为违反了GDPR规定。
You've just talked about Uber's potential in autonomous food delivery, but they are faced with, you know, a possible 825,000,000 fine in Europe for, GDPR rules violations.
这会阻碍他们的进展吗?
Could this stop some of that progress?
投资者应该如何看待这类罚款,特别是那些未来可能面临类似情况的超大规模公司?
And how should investors look at these types of fines for hyperscalers who might be faced with something similar in the future?
我们,你知道,我们刚才在开头就META进行了长时间的讨论,涉及他们社交媒体相关的违法、和解之类的事情。
We you know, we just had this long discussion about META at the top and their social media related infractions with the law and settlements and stuff like that.
所以这确实把所有这些联系起来了,因为我们看到这些巨无霸公司面临巨额罚款。
So it does kind of bring all this together because we have these massive, massive companies seeing massive fines.
这真的会拖慢他们的进展吗?
Is it really gonna slow down progress?
我们之前说META其实不太受影响。
We kind of said not really at META.
那Uber呢?
What about Uber?
罚款就像是减速带,不是红灯,不会让你完全停下来。
So fines are speed bumps, not rose red closed signs.
不过这次这个减速带确实挺大的。
And now this is a huge speed bump.
我同意,虽然差不多十亿美元,但我觉得这不会影响他们的长期目标。
I agree, it's a billion dollars or so, but I don't think this will impact their long term ambitions.
如果你仔细看这个案子的细节,其实是因为他们可能用自动化来管理员工,或者说,不是员工,是司机,也就是承包商。
If you read the fine print on this one, it's kind of how they maybe they used automation to discipline employees or to filter I'm sorry, not employees, drivers, so contractors.
这也许正好提醒了我们,为什么Uber这么希望自动驾驶能实现。
This might be a reminder of why Uber would like to see the autonomous happen.
对优步来说,外卖业务更大的问题是竞争激烈,以及让自动驾驶成为现实的难题。
The bigger issue in delivery for Uber is the amount of competition that's out there and the issues trying to make autonomous a reality.
我觉得这对他们来说是一个非常非常大的麻烦。
I think I mean, this is a very, very big annoyance for them.
我不是说十亿美元不算什么,但这不会改变他们的前景。
I don't mean to whistle past a billion dollars, but this is not going to change their outlook.
对。
Yeah.
我觉得卢说得对。
I I think Lou's right on that.
这笔罚款是8.25亿欧元。
I mean, so this is a €825,000,000 fine.
按今天的汇率,大约是9.66亿美元。
That's about $966,000,000, based on today's exchange rate.
优步最近几个季度报告的利润都超过10亿美元。
I mean, Uber just reported, you know, profits of over $1,000,000,000 in recent quarters.
所以这并不会摧毁资本。
So this is not a capital destroying event.
而且我觉得多年来我们已经看到,科技巨头会把这类监管斗争视为做生意的昂贵但不可避免的成本。
And I think we've seen for many years now, tech giants will view these types of regulatory battles as an expensive but unavoidable cost of doing business.
你可以回顾一下,比如2013年对微软的5.62亿美元反垄断罚款,还有2019年Meta与FTC的历史性和解。
I mean, you can go back to the, you know, 562,000,000 antitrust fine against Microsoft back in 2013, META's historic FTC settlement in 2019.
这些都没有动摇他们的广告业务。
Didn't break their ad business.
我觉得更重要的是,显然,可能会有一些合规流程的收紧。
I think it's more about the fact that, obviously, there will be maybe some tightening of compliance protocols.
但这项GDPR罚款实际上突显了,正如Lou提到的,Uber为什么如此大力推进自动驾驶基础设施。
But the the this GDPR penalty actually highlights, as Lou alluded to, the exact reason why Uber is pushing so hard into autonomous vehicle infrastructure.
因为这次罚款的原因是Uber让自动化算法在没有任何人工监督的情况下,随意暂停或永久停用人类司机的账户。
Because the cause of this fine was that Uber was letting automated algorithms essentially suspend or permanently deactivate human drivers without any human oversight.
而且,显然,这立刻切断了司机的收入来源。
And, obviously, that that cuts off the the workers', income instantly.
而且当你的商业模式像优步那样,依赖于管理全球数百万的零工工人时,你经常会面临劳动纠纷、这类诉讼和隐私责任等问题。
And when your business model relies on managing millions of gig work workers across the globe as Uber's does, you're often exposed to, you know, labor disputes, these types of lawsuits, privacy liabilities.
所以我觉得投资者要关注的,不是欧洲监管机构怎么做。
So I think the thing for investors to watch, you know, it's not what European regulators do.
真正要看的是,优步能否足够快地扩大其自动驾驶合作伙伴关系,按计划推进他们的混合自动驾驶目标。
It's really whether Uber is able to scale their self driving partnerships fast enough to move towards their hybrid autonomy goals on target.
这是我在中长期内对优步的关注点。
That's what I'm watching, in the the mid to long term for Uber.
这不仅仅是优步特有的问题。
This isn't just specific to Uber.
这又让我们想到这些大型公司。
It's kind of thinking again about these very large companies.
行为改变的概念,因为显然这些罚款的目的是为了改变这些公司的行为。
The idea of behavior change because, obviously, these fines are supposed to be to change behavior at a lot of these companies.
而且,当这些公司市值高达数千亿甚至数万亿美元时,这些罚款真的能激励行为改变吗?
And, again, when you have companies that are hundreds of billions of dollars or trillions of dollars, are these the type of things that are going to actually incent behavior change?
显然,就像我们刚才说的,META 的罚款金额,虽然和解协议上写得很高,但可能不一定能起到作用。不过,看起来一些强制性的运营方式改变,可能才是解决问题的关键。
Obviously, like we were saying, the the monetary fine for META, up at the top here on their settlement may not necessarily do it, but it seems like some of the enforced behavior changes of how they operate their business might actually be a little bit more of a solution here.
所以,如果 Uber 和其他公司也开始面临类似的情况,那会很有意思。
So it would be interesting to see if companies like Uber and others start to face similar things.
到底要怎么设置处罚,才能真正促使他们改变呢?
How are, penalties gonna be put in place to actually incent change?
这是我们作为投资者接下来可以持续关注的事情。
Something we can definitely follow as investors as we come up here.
但今天的时间就到这里了。
But that's all the time we have for today.
和往常一样,节目嘉宾可能对他们谈论的股票有兴趣,而 The Motley Fool 也可能有正式的推荐或反对意见。
As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.
所以不要仅仅根据你听到的内容就买卖股票。
So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.
所有个人理财内容都遵循 Motley Fool 的编辑标准,并且未经广告商批准。
All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.
广告是赞助内容,仅供参考。
Advertisements are sponsored content and provide for informational purposes only.
要查看完整的广告披露,请查看我们的节目说明。
To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.
感谢制作人丹·博伊德以及The Motley Fool团队的其他成员。
Thanks for producer Dan Boyd and the rest of The Motley Fool team.
我是Lou、Rachel和我自己,感谢收听,我们很快再聊。
For Lou, Rachel, myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.
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