关于代理未来的思考

Muse会不会颠覆大型科技公司？

Is Muse gonna break big tech?

Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资现在开始。

Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.

欢迎来到Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是Travis Hoium，今天和我一起的是Lou Whiteman和Tyler Crowe。

I'm Travis Hoium joined today by Lou Whiteman and Tyler Crowe.

各位，我们得聊聊Muse，这可能是自ChatGPT以来最大的新应用发布。

And guys, we've gotta talk about Muse, the biggest probably the biggest new app introduction since ChatGPT.

我觉得这么说一点也不夸张，它的影响力真的很大。

I I don't think that's too overstating how impactful this has been.

过去将近一周，它在所有应用商店都排名第一，而META的股票这周也因此暴涨，市值增加了数千亿美元。

Number one in all the app stores over the past nearly week and META stock has exploded this week as a result adding hundreds of billions of dollars in value.

不过，这对某些公司来说确实是个不小的冲击。

So but but this is not not disruptive to some companies.

不是所有人都喜欢大家纷纷下载Muse并尝试使用。

Not everybody loves the fact that everybody's downloading Muse and giving it a try.

亚马逊已经阻止了Muse抓取其网站内容。

Amazon has blocked Muse from crawling its website.

所以看起来这些大型科技公司并不是都那么友好。

So it doesn't seem like all these big tech companies are playing all that nicely.

但是Lou，我想先问的是，Muse正在如何改变我们与这些公司互动的方式？

But Lou, what I wanted to start with is how is Muse changing the way that we're potentially interacting with some of these companies?

因为我们一直在讨论聚合器和我们经常使用的应用。

Because we've been talking about aggregators and the apps that we use all the time.

这些大型科技公司长期以来一直相处得很好。

All these big tech companies have been playing nice for a really long time.

Muse一出现，获得了人气，突然大家都说，哇，哇，我们真的想改变现状吗？

Muse comes in, gain some popularity and suddenly everybody goes, woah, woah, do we really wanna change the status quo?

事情会如何变化，我想我们拭目以待。

The question of how things have changed, we will see, I think.

我是说，你知道，我觉得现在说这个还为时过早，但你看，以前大家都相安无事，是因为他们追求的东西都不一样。

I mean, you know, I mean, I I I think it's way too early to say, but look, everybody played nice before because they were all chasing different things.

现在他们开始追求同样的东西了。

Now they're beginning to chase the same thing.

所以，是的，他们就没那么客气了。

So, yeah, they're playing less nice.

不过我们现在还处于非常早期的阶段。

I I mean, we are so early stages here though.

我真的不知道我们能从中得出什么结论。

I don't know what we can really draw in about anything as far as what's going on.

但很明显，亚马逊就是喜欢做电商界的老大。

But definitely look, Amazon is Amazon loves being the biggest thing in e commerce.

如果有人想来抢他们的生意，或者偷走他们的独门秘籍，他们肯定会反击，因为这是他们第一次不得不这么做。

If someone's gonna come in and try to take some of what they're doing from them or kinda take some of their secret sauce, they're gonna push back because this is the first time they've had to.

泰勒，这确实是个有趣的情况，现在这个生态圈里出现了亦敌亦友的关系，Muse可以去逛所有网站，但现在我们开始看到像亚马逊这样的网站被屏蔽了。

Tyler, this does seem like an interesting place where there is now frenemies forming in in this ecosystem where Muse can go out and and shop every website, but now we're starting to get some of these sites blocked like Amazon.

有些公司开始说，嘿。

Some are going, hey.

我们合作吧。

Let's work together.

PayPal，我们一会儿会聊到一些合作，比如Shopify和PayPal。

PayPal, we'll talk about some of these partnerships in a moment, Shopify, PayPal.

但你觉得像Will的Muse这样的东西真的会改变我们的购物方式吗？

But do you think that something like Will's Muse will actually change the way that we shop?

因为如果会的话，那对亚马逊来说就是个潜在威胁，亚马逊其实超过100%的利润都来自广告。

Because if it does, then that's a potential threat to Amazon who makes a a actually more than a 100% of its profit off of advertising.

我的意思是，现在你打开亚马逊，搜任何东西，都会看到一大堆广告。

I mean, that's the thing that you open up Amazon today, search for anything, you're gonna see a whole bunch of ads.

这就是它的商业模式。

That's the business model.

META的商业模式就是在社交网络上放广告。

Business model for META is ads on its social network.

但如果突然之间我们开始用AI助手购物，那这两种商业模式看起来都可能会发生变化。

But if we're suddenly shopping for stuff with an AI assistant, it seems like both of those business models are potentially gonna change.

你今天请来的两位嘉宾，可能正是对这类事情最持怀疑态度的人，选得真不错。

You probably brought two of the more cynical voices when it comes to this sort of stuff onto the show today, so so great choice on that.

我还在想的一件事是，对于META来说，他们的商业模式并不一定是要去改变购物方式。

One of the things I'm thinking about this too is, you know, thinking about the business models is for META, it's not necessarily like, we're we're gonna go change shopping.

至少从他们目前向公众展示的Muse来看，它更像是一种收集更多信息的方式。

At least the way that they have presented Muse so far to the public is it seems more like a way of just capturing more information.

你看他们做Meta Glasses的方式，以及这个产品的发布。

You know, you look at the way that they've done Meta Glasses and this has gone out.

Muse本身是一个非常受欢迎的应用，但它的受欢迎程度也说明了一些问题，因为免费和付费层的token限制表明，META其实是想几乎免费提供这个东西。

Muse itself is an extremely popular app, but also, there is something to be said of the reason that there it is so popular is because the token limits are for free versus pay tiers, suggest that META's really just like, we wanna almost give this thing away.

我觉得他们说的是，在进入付费层之前，你可以用1亿个token，你懂我意思吗？

I think that they're they're saying like a 100,000,000 tokens before you actually get into a pay tier, which I I I you know?

我听过有人用

I've heard people use

它一直说我还没达到那个上限。

it constantly saying I have still not hit that limit.

而且这大概是好几本小说的文字量，你得输入这么多内容才会开始碰到那些限制。

And it's something like, you know, multiple novels worth of, like, language text that can be entered before we you actually start hitting those sort of limits.

这么一想，感觉他们并不是在推付费档，而是在尽可能多地收集信息。

And when you think of it that way, it's like, well, it doesn't really seem like they're trying to push for paid tiers, they're trying to gather as much information as possible.

购物显然是其中的一部分。

Shopping is obviously part of that.

可以说这是META社交媒体帝国的一部分。

One could argue that it's part of META's social media empire.

他们在购物方面获取的信息不多，所以这确实给了他们这方面的优势。

They don't get as much information on the shopping side, so that certainly gives them that aspect.

再说，这对META来说是不是颠覆性的改变，我也不确定。

Again, whether this is a game changer for META, I I don't know.

也许它只是在补充现状，用更多信息来推销更多想法。

Maybe it just is supplementing the status quo of more information to sell more ideas.

但这就是我要回到的地方。

But here's where I come back to it.

而且正如你所说，我们正在撞上围墙花园。

And because as you said, we're running into walled gardens.

亚马逊就会说，不行。

Amazon's like, no.

我们不会让Muse这么做的。

We're not gonna let Muse do this.

我可以想象谷歌或者Alphabet也会对YouTube和谷歌做同样的事，因为他们有这些广告的围墙花园。

I can imagine that Google would or Alphabet would do the same for YouTube and Google because they have these walled gardens of advertising.

就像，我们不想让竞争对手抓取我们的信息来做这个。

Like, we don't want our competitors being able to scrape our information for this.

这是我们的，当它不向世界民主化时，我们的数据就更有价值。

This is ours, and it makes our data more valuable when it's not democratized to the world.

然后这就开始影响到用户体验了，就像，好吧，我们需要一个来自Meta的AI代理。

And then then it starts to come to the the the user experience, where it's like, okay, well, need an AI agent from Meta.

我需要一个亚马逊的AI代理。

I need an AI agent from Amazon.

然后突然之间，我就有了四五个不同的代理。

And then all of a sudden, I've got four or five different agents.

我是不是又得把这些代理捆绑起来？

Do I need to bundle my agents again?

天哪，这听起来简直就像流媒体服务重演一遍。

Man, that almost sounds like streaming services all over again.

这大概是个很好的类比，这项技术很惊人，但商业模式和它如何发展才是关键。

That that's probably a good analogy that this amazing technology, but the business model and how this is gonna play out.

另外，Lou，作为投资者，我觉得我们还需要考虑的是，我们总是对新事物、热门事物感到兴奋。

The other thing, Lou, that I I think we need to think about as investors is we get really excited about the new thing, the popular thing.

你可以回顾一下人工智能的历史，有一个图像生成应用，几周内收入从零涨到一亿美元，但现在我连它的名字都想不起来了，因为它已经完全无关紧要了。

You can go back through the history of artificial intelligence, and there's a there was an image creation app that went from zero to like a $100,000,000 in revenue in a matter of weeks and now I can't even remember the name because it's completely irrelevant.

就连ChatGPT当初也被认为会颠覆谷歌的整个搜索业务。

We even ChatGPT was supposed to disrupt Google's entire business search.

这里有没有一个终极目标，就是像Muse这样的东西会从根本上颠覆科技，改变我们与技术互动的方式？

Is is there an end game here that is something like Muse is going to fundamentally disrupt tech in the way that we interact with with technology?

还是说这会是一个更缓慢的过程，我觉得对普通人来说，到目前为止的发展就是这样？

Or is this gonna be much more of a slow burn, which is, I think for normies, of the way that this has played out so far?

我们一会儿可以再详细聊这个。

We can get to this more in a second.

对，确实是个缓慢的过程。

But yeah, I it is a slow burn.

我们以为已经宣布赢家的东西，可能在这里已经反复了好几次了，对吧？

Everything that we think we have declared the winner probably half a dozen times here, right?

每次都是不同的人。

It's always been different guys.

我觉得我们其实什么都不知道。

I don't think we know anything.

我比较同意Tyler的看法，尤其是关于META，我对数据收集不太信任，但我确实认为他们现在做的事情，从好的方面看，就是先占领地盘再扩张，只是想获取市场份额，因为这东西太新了。

Tend to agree with Tyler on especially META, I don't give the benefit of doubt for data harvesting, but I do think the kinder view of what they're doing right now, away, is the land and expand, just trying to get market share because it is so new.

现在他们没法让人们为此付费，因为大家还不知道自己需要它。

They can't get people to pay for it right now because nobody knows they want it yet.

我们等着看他们是不是真的需要。

And we'll see if they really want it.

不过，是的，现在还是早期阶段。

But, yeah, we are early days.

这是新的热门事物，因为它今天就更好了。

This is the new big thing because it is better today.

但这并不是说明天不会有别人带着新东西回来。

That's not to say someone else won't come back with somebody else tomorrow.

那终点在哪里呢？

The where does it end?

最终的局面是，其中某样东西变得非常好，以至于像亚马逊这样的巨头无法阻挡，因为阻挡会让他们自己损失生意，或者就是出现一个主导者，就像苹果通过App Store收取苹果税那样。

The end game is one of these things becomes so good that the Amazons of the world can't block because they're costing themselves business or there's just a dominant player that you had like, the same way Apple got the the Apple tax with the App Store.

你只需要在那里就行了。

You just needed to be there.

我们离那一步还远着呢，而且我觉得，谁要是跟你说他知道赢家是谁，那他就是想卖你东西。

We're a long ways off from that, and I don't think and anyone who tells you they know who the winner is, is just trying to sell something.

Travis，我几乎想提出第三种可能，因为你刚才说的是关键转折点还是慢慢升温。

Travis, I almost wanna offer a third option because you gave like pivotal moment versus slow burn.

现在好像我们天天都在经历这种改变游戏规则的时刻，多到这种改变游戏规则本身都快变成家常便饭了。

It seems like we're having these game changing moments, like, all all the time these days to the point where they're just kind of commoditizing the the game changing aspect of it.

也许已经到了这个地步，你知道，事情发展得太快，成本曲线下滑得那么迅速，加上这种商品化，真的很难有一个突出的关键转折点，因为一切都在飞速变化。

And perhaps it's to this point where, you know, the the speed at which it moves so fast, the the the rapid, you know, slide down the cost commodity curve and the commoditization of this, that it is really hard to have a standout pivotal moment because it is moving so quickly.

而且在这个市场里，也很难看清什么才是可持续的。

And it's really hard to see what is sustainable in this market as well.

我确实想聊聊一些面前有巨大机遇的公司，包括Shopify。

I do wanna talk about some companies that have a big opportunity ahead of them, including Shopify.

我们一会儿再聊这个。

We'll do that in a moment.

人们说领导力不仅仅关乎你要去哪里。

They say leadership isn't just about where you're going.

关键在于你有多大的决心去实现它。

It's about the conviction it takes to get there.

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欢迎回到节目。

Welcome back to the show.

我们确实和Muse有一些有趣的合作。

We did have some interesting partnerships with Muse.

亚马逊对Muse有点对抗的态度，但Shopify、PayPal、Expedia都表示，嘿，如果你们想用我们的产品，就连接我们，我们很乐意和你们合作。

So Amazon taking a little bit of an adversarial approach to Muse, but Shopify, PayPal, Expedia have said, hey, if if you wanna use our products, connect to connect to us, we're more than happy to work with you.

所以，Tyler，这些机会我们之前提到过一些围墙花园，我觉得用这个框架来看很有意思，亚马逊就是一个围墙花园。

So, Tyler, are these opportunities we talked about some of the walled gardens and I think that's an interesting way to frame this is Amazon is a walled garden.

他们希望你去亚马逊购物。

They want you to go to Amazon and shop there.

如果你去的是Shopify的店铺，他们不一定在乎你是从Muse来的，还是从Facebook来的，或者你本来就知道这个网站。

If you're going to a Shopify shop, they don't necessarily care whether you came from Muse or you came from Facebook or you knew which website to go to.

只要你能来他们的网站，对他们来说就是胜利。

Long as you're coming to their site, that's a win for them.

所以看起来有些商业模式会非常开放，他们会说，嘿，Muse、ChatGPT，不管谷歌推出什么，我们都很乐意和你们合作。

So it almost seems like some of these business models are gonna be very conducive to opening up and saying, hey, Muse, ChatGPT, whatever Google comes out with, we're happy to be partners with you.

在某些情况下，这可能会从亚马逊那里抢走一部分可自由支配的开支。

There is a world in which some of this can pull some discretionary spend away from Amazon.

如果这个功能非常受欢迎，每个人都决定把生活和购物决策交给Muse或其他非亚马逊、非Alphabet、非专属的代理，那就会让Shopify这样的公司受益。

If uptake of this is so popular and everyone decides to seed all of their life and shopping decisions to Muse or some other non Amazon, non Alphabet, non, exclusive sort of agent that would, you know, benefit a company like Shopify.

也就是说，Shopify、PayPal或者这些公司并没有在开发自己的产品。

That is to say, a Shopify or a PayPal or any of these aren't building their own products.

我不确定。

I don't know.

也许他们试过自己开发。

Maybe there was some sort of like, we they tried to build their own.

他们发现行不通。

They saw it wasn't working.

然后就想，也许我们干脆找合作伙伴吧。

It's like, maybe we just partner with somebody.

在我们上面有个聚合器，可能会容易得多。

Might be a heck of a lot easier, to have some sort of aggregator above us.

但与此同时，这其实是个成本很低的事情。

But at the same time, it's it's pretty a low cost sort of thing.

就像，他们只需要跟Muse签个字，然后说，嘿。

Like, all they have to do is sign on the dotted line with Muse and go, hey.

我们合作吧。

We'll partner.

这里的机会成本看起来确实很低。

It it the the opportunity costs here seems pretty low.

所以我不想说这就像在地上捡几个硬币，但它确实有好处，不过我不一定会把它称为对提到的任何公司投资论点有颠覆性影响的东西。

So I don't wanna say it's like picking up a few dimes on the floor, but it it's it it does benefit, but I wouldn't necessarily call it like a game changer to the investment thesis in in any of the companies mentioned.

我的意思是，Tyler说的完全正确。

What I mean, what Tyler says is exactly right.

而且这不仅仅是这里独有的情况。

I and this is not just unique here.

每一次产品发布，都会有一整页的合作伙伴之类的。

Every one of these product launches, there are there's a whole page of partners and all that.

这些合作伙伴几乎没有什么风险。

And there is very little downside to these partners.

他们没什么可损失的。

There's nothing to go in.

这让我想起我们之前聊过的Joby和Archer，还有那些为千架飞机提供可退还押金的公司。

It sort of reminds me of we were talking about too long ago about Joby and Archer and all of the companies that did refundable deposits for a thousand aircraft.

第一天就参与进来，没什么坏处。

There's no downside to being there on day one.

对投资者来说，关键是要小心。

The takeaway for investors is be careful.

别太当真。

Don't read much into that.

Muse可能会发展起来，也可能不会。

Muse turns into something, it could turn into something.

但说到保证或背书，以及收入的意义、对业务的影响、未来的发展，这些都一文不值。

But in terms of guarantees or endorsements, what the revenue means, what it means for these businesses, how things evolve, it's not worth the paper it's printed on.

所以Meta的股价涨了9%，短期来看可能有点反应过度了。

So META's stock jumping 9%, maybe a bit of a overreaction short term.

Lou，我想听听你对这些商业模式变化的看法，因为我们在考虑科技领域的其他公司，而Expedia是昨天宣布成为合作伙伴的公司之一。

Lou, I would did wanna get your thoughts on some of these changing business models because I as we think about some of the other companies in tech and Expedia is one of the ones that was announced as a partner yesterday.

Uber总是让我想到，因为它有点像类似的聚合平台。

Uber is always the one that I always think about because it's sort of a similar aggregator position.

但想想Muse，如果你要用Muse做旅行搜索，当然可以通过Expedia，但如果Muse真的是一个很聪明的AI，为什么它不能直接去网站呢？这基本上就是Expedia在做的事情——作为酒店、航空公司等的发现引擎。

But thinking about Muse, if you're gonna do travel search with Muse, sure you could go through Expedia, but if Muse is a really smart AI, why can't it just go straight to the website which is essentially what Expedia was doing, was being a discovery engine for hotels, you know, for airlines, things like that.

这样想对吗？

Is that a good way to think about that?

也许他们是从一个弱势的角度出发，就是不想完全出局。

That maybe they're coming at this kind of from a point of weakness where they they just don't wanna be out of the game at all.

而Uber，我总是在想，这真的会颠覆Uber吗？

Whereas Uber I I always think about is this really just something that will be disruptive to Uber?

那些司机还是需要和某人联系，并且需要通过某种应用程序来连接他们。

Those drivers still have to connect with somebody and and have to, you know, work for some sort of application that's gonna connect them.

他们会直接连接到Muse吗？

Are they gonna connect directly to Muse?

大概不会。

Probably not.

所以像Uber这样处在中间的位置，可能没有同样的聚合优势，但至少它有一定的价值，不会被直接跳过去找到个人网站而完全取代。

So something like an Uber sitting in the middle maybe doesn't have the same aggregator position, but it is is at least some sort of valuable position that can't be just completely cut out by just going directly to a person's, you know, website saying where they are.

这样理解这个竞争动态是不是比较好？我们往下看，谁可能短期从Muse受益，但长期可能不占优势？

Is that a good way to think about this competitive dynamic as we kinda go down from who may see tailwinds from Muse short term, but maybe isn't in a strong position long term?

我想反驳你说的所有内容，因为——

I wanna push back on everything you said because

我知道。

I know

当然。

Of course

你确实会。

you do,

卢。

Lou.

回到刚才

Back to what

你说的关于META的事，我其实觉得股价涨10%是合理的，因为市场总是在给未来定价。

you said about META, I actually think the 10% stock jump makes sense because the market is always pricing the future.

它没有翻倍，也没有说这是板上钉钉的事，但如果Muse真的搞出了点名堂，那这就很厉害了。

It didn't double, it didn't say it's guaranteed, but if Muse is onto something, this is powerful.

所以看到它发布，看到投资者这么兴奋，再说一遍，这不是为了今天，也不是我要追的东西，但这是合理的。

So seeing it come out and seeing the investors get excited about it, again, it's not for today, it's not something I'm chasing, but that makes sense.

而且从长远来看，我真的看不出Expedia和Uber在这个事情上有什么区别。

I also don't really see a difference between Expedia and Uber long term in this.

我觉得这些智能体的卖点就是更直接的交易，干掉中间商。

I think that the promise of these agents is more direct commerce and destroying the middlemen.

是的，目前来说，航空公司网站已经建好了，所以它们保护得更好，但司机没有理由不想出一个新系统，让自己能被某个智能体找到，如果这意味着你不用付Uber那笔费用的话。

And yes, for now, is better protected because the air airline websites are set up, but there is no reason why a driver wouldn't be incented to come up with a new system where they're available to some smart agent if it means that you don't have to pay Uber their fee.

所以长期来看，我会非常谨慎地假设一个中间商能成功而另一个不能，因为这一切的核心就是减少摩擦，去掉中间商。

So long term, I would be very careful assuming one middleman makes it and another doesn't because the whole point of this is to relieve the friction, get rid of the middleman.

我们回来之后，会聊聊在这个智能体时代里，可能有哪些隐藏的机会。

When we come back, we're gonna talk about where there's potential hidden opportunities in this agentic future.

你正在收听的是Motley Fool的隐藏宝石投资节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

嘿。

Hey.

我是科技新闻周刊的Micah Sergeant。

It's Micah Sergeant from tech news weekly.

在本周的节目中，我和The Verge的Jennifer Patisson Toohey聊了聊META的180亿美元和解案，以及他们通过扣留部分资金来牵制TikTok和YouTube的事情。

And on this week's show, I spoke with Jennifer Patisson Toohey of The Verge about META having an $18,000,000,000 settlement and also sort of holding TikTok and YouTube hostage through some of that money being withheld.

这挺疯狂的。

It's pretty wild.

我们还聊了聊那个令人难以置信的Cyberdeck热潮，以及Raspberry Pi终于开始认真对待这件事了。

We also talk about the incredible Cyberdeck craze and how Raspberry Pi is finally leaning in.

还有迪·格里芬·琼斯加入我们，带我们了解苹果的硬件发布，包括M5和M6芯片、新的Mac Studio、新的Mac Mini，然后还给我们预告了九月份的iPhone发布会。

And Dee Griffin Jones joins us to walk us through Apple's hardware announcements, the m five and m six chips, its new Mac Studio, new Mac Mini, and then gives us a preview of the upcoming iPhone event in September.

如果你想订阅《科技新闻周刊》，只要在你收听播客的任何地方搜索《科技新闻周刊》，或者访问Twitter TV的T和W频道。

If you would like to subscribe to tech news weekly, just search for tech news weekly wherever you get your podcasts or head to Twitter TV slash T and W.

每周二，我们都会在《Mac Break每周》上报道最新的苹果新闻。

Every Tuesday, we cover the latest Apple news on Mac break weekly.

大家好。

Hi.

我是TWIT播客网络的Leo Laporte，邀请你本周和我一起，还有Jason Snell、Christina Warren和Andy Inaco。

This is Leo Laporte from the TWIT Podcast Network inviting you to join me this week with Jason Snell, Christina Warren, and Andy Inaco.

我们将告别即将离任的蒂姆·库克。

We'll wave goodbye to the departing Tim Cook.

迎接约翰·特尼斯，聊聊他的领导可能给苹果带来什么，还有Vision Pro部门更多的裁员，但Vision Pro还是有个好用途的。

Say hello to John Turnis and talk about what his regime may bring to Apple, plus more layoffs in the Vision Pro division, but there is a good use for the Vision Pro.

杰森发现了这个用途。

Jason's found it.

本周的MacBook Weekly还有更多内容。

That and more this week on MacBook weekly.

你可以在twit.tv/mbw以及任何你收听播客的地方找到它。

You'll find it at twit.tv/mbw and wherever you get your podcasts.

欢迎回到节目。

Welcome back to the show.

好的。

Okay.

泰勒，这里有哪些隐藏的宝藏？

Tyler, where are there some hidden gems here?

我的意思是，Meta是世界上最大的公司之一，估值接近2万亿美元。

I I mean, META is one of the biggest companies in the world, almost a $2,000,000,000,000 valuation.

它仍然是被低估的宝藏，还是说，如果Muse和购物代理要成功的话，你还有其他关注的方向？

Is that still a a sort of underappreciated gem or are there other areas that you're looking if Muse's and shopping agents are gonna be successful?

关于代理式AI，我其实从个人消费者层面有更多疑虑，因为它在某些方面会有帮助，但我认为它在可自由支配支出方面没有那么大的影响力，因为人们往往是凭一时冲动买东西，甚至有些人会想到像TJ Maxx或Ross这样的最基础的商店，那里的实际到店体验仍然很重要，尽管这听起来可能很老套。

So as I'm thinking about Agentic AI, I actually have more doubts about it from a like, individual consumer level, because I I it will help in some ways, but I think that it doesn't have as much power with discretionary spending because people tend to buy things on a whim and some even think of like the most basic things of like a TJ Maxx or a Ross stores where the actual in person experience is still like a thing as as ancient as that may sound.

我还以为既然智能体帮我们干了所有活，我们会有好多额外时间去做那些线下的事，但也许不是这样。

And I thought we were gonna have so much extra time for those in person things now that agents are doing all of our work for us, but but maybe not.

嗯，希望如此吧。

Well, one should hope so.

但我其实觉得，在智能体商务这块，B2B领域的机会比个人消费者那边要多一些。

But I I actually think there's gonna be a little bit more opportunity in this Agentic commerce on the b to b side rather than from the individual consumer perspective.

这看起来更适合这个方向。

It just seems like a more appropriate outlet for this.

你看，企业采购有固定的周期，库存管理得很严密，而且很多都数字化了，所有数据都在那儿。相比之下，消费者层面，就是某天突然想到，嘿，我想去看个电影什么的。

You have, you know, purchases are made on regular schedules where inventories are closely monitored and often digitized, like all that data is there versus, you know, somebody on a consumer level just like pops in my head one day, hey, I wanna go to the movies or something like that.

这种自动化、固定的节奏，感觉真的能帮企业减轻不少负担。

It it just seems like that automation, regular cadence, it would take stuff off of someone's plate at a business.

这些才是真正能带来实际改变的地方。

Those are the sort of things where it's gonna make a real difference.

我们刚才聊了那些大型的智能体AI，但我觉得，其实在一些非常细分的小众产品上，价值更大，而这些可能不是那些大公司会去考虑的。

Now, we talked about big agentic AIs, but I think there's actually more value, in some of these real niche products that not necessarily these big companies are thinking about.

我想在这里介绍一家公司。

And I wanna bring one company to the table here.

它属于那种不太为人所知的服务领域。

It's it's, you know, within the hidden gem services.

这家公司叫AAR Corp。

It's called AAR Corp.

这真的是非常深入的一个案例。

This is a I this is really deep in the in the the playbook here.

它是一家为商用和军用飞机提供零部件分销和企业资源规划软件的公司。

It's a parts distribution and enterprise resource planning software company for commercial aircraft and military aircraft.

我觉得这跟“隐藏宝石”的概念非常契合，你觉得呢？

I mean, that that's like apples to apples for hidden gems, don't you think?

确实如此。

Exactly.

他们现在正在做的事情，是把智能代理集成到他们的ERP系统中，这样就能为商业航空公司客户省去很多库存规划的工作。

So what they're building right now is actually Agentic into their ERP systems that are going to basic to take away a lot of the inventory planning for its commercial airline customers.

比如说，达美航空会说，嘿。

So say, like, Delta is like, hey.

我们需要一些新的，而不是像往常那样定期安排起落架的作动器，他们的AI ERP软件会处理这个。

We need some, you know, new instead of, like, routinely scheduling actuators for its landing gear, their AI ERP software is gonna handle it.

它建立在AAR系统上，而AAR系统恰好也分销这些零件。

It's built on AAR system who also happens to distribute those parts.

搞定，就这么简单。

Bing, bang, boom.

这给很多人省了不少麻烦。

It's saved a lot of people headaches.

它也开始预测这些事情，知道这些部件大概什么时候会出问题。

It's also starting to predict those sort of things knowing, like, the schedules on which these things sort of break.

我觉得像这样的东西会让那些公司对客户变得极其有价值，相比之下，我们即将面临的是一场与Muse代理型AI公司和Alphabet代理型AI的激烈竞争，它们试图拿走我们每一丝数据，来猜测我们想要什么，而很多时候我们自己都不知道想要什么。

I think things like that are gonna make those kind of companies immensely valuable to their customers versus this absolute knife fight that we're gonna have with the Muse agentic AI companies and the Alphabet agentic AI trying to take every last shred of our data to try to figure out what we want when half the time we don't even know what we want.

所以我真的认为，会是这些在非常冷门领域工作的利基公司，能从这场代理型商业革命中产生巨大的价值。

So I I really do think it's gonna be these, you know, niche niche companies working in very esoteric areas that could generate immense value from this agentic commerce sort of revolution.

在消费者这边，想想还挺有意思的。

On the consumer side, it is fun to think about.

LG在2020年6月推出了智能冰箱，各位。

The LG introduced the smart refrigerator in June '20 2,000 guys.

六年过去了，我们当中有多少人每周让家电来帮我们处理购物清单呢？

2620 And six years how many of us are letting our appliance handle our grocery list every week?

对吧。

Okay.

现在你可能会说，但是Lou，现在AI来了，它能做到这一点。

Now you could say, but Lou, now that the AI is here can do that.

但这我觉得是值得反思的消费者适应问题。

But that is I think something to reflect on consumer adaptation.

和B2B不同的是，正如Tyler所说，B2B有更规律的节奏。

The difference with B2B, as Tyler's noting, is there's more of a regular cadence.

我不想每天、每周都吃同样的饭，但一架飞机需要这么多零件。

I don't want to eat the same meal every day, every week, but an airplane needs this many parts.

我确实觉得那边机会更大。

I do think it's more there.

在消费端，这介于高级搜索和一个虚拟朋友之间，这个朋友会替你做决定，还会在你不知情的情况下付钱。

On the consumer side, this is somewhere between glorified search and an imaginary friend who makes decisions for you and pays for them without you knowing it.

我可能更倾向于高级搜索那一侧，但我确实认为在某些方面这能成为新的热门，并且会像我们一直讨论的那样蚕食搜索业务。

I am probably more on the glorified search side, but I do think there is ways where this can become the new big thing and it does eat into the search business the way we've all been talking about forever.

这需要很长时间。

It's gonna take a lot of time.

唯一紧迫的是播客、分析师、媒体之类的在说，这是不是今天的新热门？

The only urgency is podcasts, analysts, media, stuff like this saying, is this the new big thing today?

现实是，这需要一代人甚至更久才能完全实现。

The reality is this is going to take a generation to play out, if not longer.

而且我觉得机会很多。

And I think there's a lot of opportunities.

你知道随着个体代理型商业AI的发展，哪个故事会特别有趣吗？

Do you know what's gonna be one of the more fun stories to follow with individual agentic commercial AI?

就是当AI一直在思考你的消费习惯，以及如何让你更高效、可能还能省钱的时候。

Is when AI has been thinking about your spending habits and how they can make you more efficient and maybe save money.

到时候肯定会有很多本地新闻，比如有人家里被送来了一整托盘的罐头金枪鱼，因为他的智能购物AI说，你经常买金枪鱼。

There's just gonna be a ton of, like, local news stories of, like, somebody had a pallet full of tuna cans sent to their house because their agentic AI commerce thing said, you buy a lot of tuna.

咱们省点钱，按托盘买吧。

Let's save some money and buy it by the pallet.

这真是个反乌托邦的未来啊，泰勒。

This is that's such a dystopian future, Tyler.

好吧。

Okay.

卢，最后说一句。

Lou, final word

最傻的反乌托邦。没错。

The silliest dystopian Exactly.

谷歌能快速跟进那些有效的做法吗？

Can Google fast follow what works?

因为我觉得我们上周的某期节目里提到过这个。

Because I I think we mentioned this on the one of the shows last week.

我试了Muse，第一件事就是把我的谷歌账号都连上了。

I tried out Muse, the first thing I did was connect all of my Google stuff.

谷歌还拥有全球超过一半智能手机的操作系统。

Google also owns the operating system for more than half of the smartphones in the world.

那在这个领域，Muse是不是就是当下的热门？

Is this an area where Muse is the thing of the day?

它确实很厉害。

It is very impressive.

我完全没有贬低META的意思。

I I'm not taking that away from META at all.

但如果谷歌能把这个做得差不多，他们其实能赢，因为绝大多数人不会在接下来两周内就采用这个。

But if Google does this okay enough, they can actually be a winner because the mass of the vast majority of people are not gonna adopt this in the next two weeks.

他们会花上两年的时间，到那时谷歌差不多就能做到，直接在手机上帮你搞定。

They're gonna take the next two years and by then, Google's gonna kinda be there and do it for you right on your phone.

对于Alphabet的股东们，我有好消息也有坏消息。

I have good news and bad news for the Alphabet Bowls.

好消息是，是的，他们可以复制这个并且能赢，因为他们已经有现成的连接，绝对没问题。

Good news is, yes, they can copy this and they can win because they already have the connections, definitely.

坏消息是，META已经向我们展示了，几乎任何人都能复制这个。

The bad news is is what META has shown us is almost anyone can copy this.

所以很有可能，不是Alphabet或Meta，而是别的公司会做得更好，也许是苹果。

And so it's quite possible someone other than Alphabet or Meta will simply do it better, maybe Apple.

我不知道。

I don't know.

但所以，是的，我不认为……我的意思是，唯一诚实的回答是，我们不知道五年后谁会赢。

But so, yeah, I don't I don't think I mean, the the only honest answer is we do not know what who's the winner will be in five years.

我们不应该对今天的事情过度解读，也不应该假设任何事情。

We shouldn't read too much into today, and we shouldn't assume anything.

确实，未来我们有很多内容要聊。

Definitely a lot for us to cover in the future.

一如既往，节目中的嘉宾可能对他们谈论的股票有兴趣，而The Motley Fool可能有正式的推荐或反对意见，所以不要仅凭听到的内容买卖股票。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容都遵循The Motley Fool的编辑标准，并未经过广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows The Motley Fool's editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告是赞助内容，仅供参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

要查看我们的完整广告披露，请查看我们的节目笔记。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

我是Travis Hoium，和Lou Whiteman、Tyler Crowe以及幕后Dan Boyd一起。

For Lou Whiteman, Tyler Crowe, Dan Boyd behind the glass, I'm Travis Hoium.

我们明天见。

We'll see you here tomorrow.