耐克下滑、Netflix增长以及我们在第三季度学到的经验

耐克就是没做到。

Nike just didn't.

Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资现在开始。

Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.

欢迎来到 Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是 Travis Hoium，今天和我一起的是 Lou Whiteman 和 Jason Hall。

I'm Travis Hoium joined today by Lou Whiteman and Jason Hall.

我确实想聊聊耐克的业绩，各位，因为昨天收盘后公布的数据不太好看，而且我们也结束了第三季度，也就是日历上的第三季度。

I do wanna get to Nike's numbers, guys, because they were not very impressive after the market closed yesterday, but we've also ended the third quarter, the calendar third quarter.

所以我想知道你们觉得我们从中对投资、对市场、对未来的方向学到了什么。

So I wanna know what you guys think we've learned about investing, about the market, about where we're going from here.

Lou，感觉很多事情都搅在一起了。

Lou, it seems like there's a lot mixing together.

利率在上升，但当我们看整个市场时，到底是什么在推动走势呢？

Interest rates are higher, but when we look at the the market overall, what is driving things?

嗯，有点像国情咨文。

Well, kind of a state of the union.

好的。

Okay.

嗯，我是说，你看，我觉得我们得从AI说起。

Well, I mean, look, I think we have to start with AI.

AI是我们今年一整年都在谈论的话题，而且它一直在推动市场。

AI has been all we're talking about this entire year, and it has been driving the market.

不过我觉得这个季度我们学到的是，也许，只是也许，前沿领域才是炒作所在，但那里并不是赚钱的地方。

I think what we've learned in this last quarter, though, is that maybe, just maybe, the frontier, that's where the hype has been, but that's not where the money is.

所有这些公司都在竞相率先实现超级智能，就像追逐想象中的朋友一样，投入了数十亿美元。

All of these companies that were racing to get to imaginary friends, super intelligence first, all of the billions being spent.

与此同时，真正的公司正在把较小的模型投入使用，并实现真正的效率提升。

The meanwhile, real companies are putting lesser models to work and driving real efficiencies.

我觉得这就是那些悲观论调所谈论的内容。

I think that's been the gloom and doom talk.

我确信Anthropic和OpenAI只是在试图放缓支出，专注于收入，为可能的IPO做准备。

I'm convinced that Anthropic and OpenAI are just trying to maybe slow the spending and focus on revenue ahead of a potential IPO.

也许这就是为什么他们在谈论，嗯，我们不能……

Maybe that's kinda why they're talking about, well, we can't...

我们得在尖端领域放慢脚步。

We gotta just slow down in the frontier.

但我觉得现在很明显，也许有一天尖端领域会成为赚钱的地方。

But I think it's pretty clear at this point that maybe one day frontier will be where the money is.

但就目前而言，你不必成为最顶尖的，也能开始创造收入。

But for now, you don't have to be the best of the best to actually start to drive revenue.

Jason，看起来我们在AI方面确实处于一个奇怪的境地，因为它不仅推动市场，还推动经济。

Jason, it does seem like we're in a strange place with AI because it's not only driving the market, it's also driving the economy.

我们稍后会谈到一些关于消费者，你的消费者观点。

We'll get to some of the consumer, your consumer thoughts in just a second.

但我们有没有学到什么关于人工智能中哪些商业模式实际上在起作用？

But have we learned anything about where the business models are actually working in artificial intelligence?

因为这就是那种情况，你看这些股票，有些估值涨得离谱。

Because this is one of the things where if you look at these stocks, some of the valuations are up crazy.

然后有些，比如甲骨文，我觉得自从他们和OpenAI签了那个大单之后，跌了超过50%。

And then some, like Oracle, for example, is down, I think, over 50% since they signed that huge deal with OpenAI.

所以看起来就是……

So it seems like it just...

就是看你在哪个位置。

It it depends on where you are.

不是AI让所有船都浮起来。

It's not AI is lifting all boats.

它让大多数船浮起来，但不是所有东西都这样。

It's lifting most boats, but not necessarily everything.

嗯，它让大船浮起来。

Well, it's lifting the big boats.

你看那些超大规模云服务商，那些几万亿美元的大公司，它们被抬升了很多。

If you look at the hyperscalers, the massive multi trillion dollar companies, they're being lifted a ton.

那些卖铲子和镐的公司，也就是那些制造技术的大科技公司，它们之所以被推高，是因为现在资金正流向这些企业，并通过它们流动。

The picks and shovels companies, the big tech companies that are making the tech, they're being lifted because the money is flowing to and through those businesses right now.

但我觉得更重要的是要记住，现在这一切都还处于非常非常早期的阶段。

But I think the bigger thing to remember is that this is super duper early.

现在它也在广泛地提振经济，因为资金流向那些正在建设东西的公司，以及那些赚大钱的熟练技工，然后他们又把钱花回当地经济中。

Now it's lifting the economy too broadly because money flowing to companies that are building stuff and skilled tradespeople that are earning great money, and then they're spending that money back in the local economies.

这一切都在发生。

All that's happening.

但再说一次，现在真的太早了。

But again, it's so early.

尽管现在大量资金正流入一小部分公司，但看看Anthropic，以及程度稍低但仍然相当惊人的OpenAI，它们的收入增长率简直高得离谱。

As much as like the big dollars are flowing into a small group of companies now, Look at Anthropic and to a little bit lesser degree, but still pretty impressive, OpenAI, their revenue growth rates are off the charts.

如果这些增长率能持续下去，即使稍微放缓一点，几年后它们也会产生巨大的数字。

And if those growth rates continue, even if they moderate a little bit, they're going to be generating some gigantic numbers in just a few years.

希望如此。

Hopefully.

希望如此。

Hopefully.

因为，是的，我的意思是，商业模式的问题，我觉得有趣的是，我们其实还不知道答案。

Because, yeah, I mean, the business model question, think the interesting part is, I don't think we know.

就像Jason说的，现在还为时过早，所以我们也不必非得知道。

As Jason says, it's way early, so I don't think we have to know.

但现在的商业模式就是什么都往墙上扔，看哪个能粘住。

But the business model right now is throw you know what at the wall and see what sticks.

有些确实粘住了。

And some of it has stuck.

我是说，Anthropic的企业业务做得相当不错。

I mean, Anthropic has a pretty good enterprise business going.

我们得看看什么时候能看到他们真正的S-1文件和完整的财务数据。

We'll see if and when we ever see, like, actually their their s one and their their full set of numbers.

一直有传言说那种势头可能没能持续下去，所以我很好奇。

There's been rumors about maybe that momentum hasn't proven sustainable, so I'm curious.

但关于这一点，我只想快速说几个数据，因为我觉得这仍然是我们面临的最大问题。

But just a couple of quick stats on this because I think that this is the biggest question we still have.

这只是一家之言，但阿波罗全球管理公司估计，到2030年，AI终端用户的年收入必须达到1.5万亿到2万亿美元，才能证明所有这些建设投入是合理的。

This is just one person's opinion, but Apollo Global Management estimates that annual AI end user revenue has to hit between 1.5 and $2,000,000,000,000 annually by 2030 to justify all of the build out spending.

各位，根据高德纳咨询公司的数据，全球在软件上的所有支出，无论是企业还是个人，我们每年花掉的每一美元加起来是1.47万亿美元。

Now, guys, worldwide, according to the Gartner group, all spending on software, business and consumer, every dollar we're spending is 1,470,000,000,000.

所以基本上，阿波罗的意思是，只有在这些公司能占据全球消费者和企业软件支出的全部份额，再加上一点通胀因素的情况下，这个账才算得过来，而且这要在短短四年内实现。

So basically Apollo says this only works out for these companies if they represent the entire global software spending budget for consumers and businesses, plus a little for inflation in just four years.

不过我觉得有一点很重要，要记住这不是零和游戏。

I think an important part of that to remember though is that it's not zero sum.

听起来可能像是零和，但我知道，卢，你并不是想把它说成零和，因为AI并不会取代所有软件。

It can sound zero sum, and I know, Lou, you're not trying to make it sound zero sum because AI is not replacing all software.

我觉得未来会发生很多变化，其中一部分在企业领域会是零和的，AI工具让企业效率更高。

I think a lot of what's going to happen is there's going to be some zero sum stuff in the enterprise where AI tools make businesses more efficient.

他们做事情需要的人手更少了。

They need less people to do things.

但我觉得从大方向来看，它会催生新的行业和新的机会，那些十年前还不存在的东西，五年后就会出现了。

But I think broadly, it's going to create new industries and new opportunities that things that don't exist, that didn't exist ten years ago, are going to exist five years from now.

这意味着经济总量会变得更大一些。

And that means that the economic pool is going to be a little bit larger.

所以我觉得这也是故事的一部分。

So I think that's part of the story.

一开始肯定会有冲击，而且会很难看、让人不舒服。

Initially, there's going to be disruption, and it's going to be ugly and uncomfortable.

但熬过这个阶段之后，就像我们每次看到大规模变革和新科技、新创新一样，最终带来的是更高的生产力和全球范围内的经济增长。

But on the other side of it, just as we've seen with every massive groundswell and change, new technology, new innovation, the other side of it is more productivity and economic gains for the for for the world largely.

不过，如果你从宏观角度来看，这挺有意思的，因为……

It's an interesting thing though if you take that to the macro because...

你说得对。

And you're right.

这件事有很多种可能的发展方向。

There's a lot of ways this can go.

但你的意思是，公司会扩大他们的支出，那我对效率提升就有疑问了，因为那才是最初的目的。

But what you're implying is then that companies will expand what they're spending on, which means I have questions about the efficiency gains that were the point in the first place.

公司花更多的钱，真的变得更高效了吗？

Are the companies actually becoming more efficient in spending more?

如果是这样，那是不是意味着对经济其他部分造成更大的拖累，因为这些公司因为使用AI工具而获得了定价权或新的定价权，感觉这里肯定有什么地方不对劲。

If so, does that mean a bigger drag on the rest of the economy because these companies somehow gain pricing power or new pricing power because they're using AI tools, it still feels like something has to not work there.

我的意思是，如果企业和零售消费者在这些公司上花更多的钱，那他们就有理由在新机会上投入更多。

I mean, if business and retail consumers are spending more with these companies, therefore they can justify higher spend on new opportunities.

那这些企业和消费者的钱是从哪里来的呢？

Where are those businesses and consumers getting that money from?

你知道，就像，嗯……

You know, like, there...

就是……

There's just...

有很多假设认为钱会越来越多，他们可能是对的，但这里面还有很多空白需要填补。

There's a lot of assumptions that money pile grows, and they might be right, but there's a lot of blanks to be filled in there.

嗯，Jason，这次的情况和以往很不一样。你看八十年代、九十年代的计算机变革，零零年代的移动互联网，还有一零年代的云计算，就拿亚马逊的资本支出来说吧。

Well, Jason, the other thing that's very different this time around is if we look at the changes that happened, whether it in the eighties or nineties with computers, with mobile in the in the aughts, and then the two thousand tens with things like cloud computing, I mean, I'm just looking at Amazon's CapEx numbers.

当年亚马逊不仅建零售业务，还建AWS，回到2013年，他们的资本支出是34亿美元。

When Amazon was building out not only the retail business but also AWS, I mean, if we go back to 2013, they spent $3,400,000,000 on CapEx.

对吧？

K?

那差不多是他们增长和实力的顶峰了。

That was like the peak of their growth, you know, peak of their powers.

他们花了……

They spent...

他们可能上周就花了那么多。

They probably spent that last week.

而……

The...

过去一年是1730亿美元。

$173,000,000,000 over the past year.

现在我觉得有点难理清的是，如果我们用“泡沫”这个词，当泡沫发生时，并不意味着技术不行。

Now the thing that I have trouble kinda pulling apart is if we wanna use the bubble word, when bubbles happen, it doesn't mean that tech...

技术是有效的，确实在构建一些了不起的东西。

The technology doesn't work, that something amazing isn't being built.

问题在于资金投入跑在了实际回报的前面。

It's that the finances get ahead of the actual payback.

而且这就是……

And that's...

当我们投入数万亿美元，如果这没有改变世界，没有在接下来几年改变我们的工作方式，那市场在未来五到十年就会面临很大的问号，而这正是我们作为愚蠢投资者应该关注的时间框架。

As we're spending trillions of dollars, if if this isn't changing the world, if it isn't changing the way that we work in the next couple of years, it seems like that's where there's big question marks for the market over the next, you know, five to ten years, which should be the time frame that we're looking at as foolish investors.

嗯，我的意思是，很多事情可以同时成立。

Well, I mean, more than one thing can be true at the same time.

而且我

And I

而且我认为我们会看到的是，人工智能总体上会在很多方面带来变革，会取得成功，并且会带动经济的很多不同部分增长。

and I think that what we're going to see is that AI broadly is going to be transformative in a lot of ways and a success and is gonna grow a lot of different parts of the economy.

总的来说，我觉得五年后，甚至十年后，这些AI工具肯定会创造巨大的价值。

And overall, I think five years from now, probably ten years from now, certainly, there will be tremendous value created by these AI tools.

但在这个过程中，个别公司的计划会泡汤。

But along the way, individual company plans are going to blow up.

会有事情失败。

Things are going to fail.

这就是资本主义的运作方式，对吧？

That's the way capitalism works, right?

这可能是历史上最大的一次资本主义实验，想想看，美国在怎么搞AI，中国在怎么搞AI。

This is the biggest capitalism experiment in some ways maybe in history, thinking about the fact that we've got how AI is being built in The US, how it's being built in China.

所以我们同时有两种不同的模式在竞争。

So we've got these dueling models of how do we do it going on at the same time.

而且肯定会有一些彻底失败的事情。

And there's definitely going to be things that are utter, utter failures.

会有数十亿甚至数万亿美元的损失，但同时也会创造出大量的财富和价值，就在钱亏掉的同时。

There are going to be billions of dollars in losses, maybe trillions in some cases, while at the same time, there's going to be massive amounts of wealth and value created at the same time that money's being lost.

事情总是这样发展的。

That's how these things always play out.

金融危机就是一个例子。

The financial crisis is an example of that.

互联网泡沫破裂也是一个例子。

The dot com crash is an example of that.

那些基础设施和资产长期来看都创造了巨大的价值。

All of those infrastructure and assets that were put in place had massive value over the long term.

只是你永远不会按照你预想的路径到达目的地。

It's just you never end up taking the journey to get to the destination that you thought you would.

对我来说，这可能是最吸引人的地方。

And that's to me maybe the most compelling thing about this.

杰森，我想听听你的看法。

Jason, I wanted to get your thoughts.

我们已经聊了很多关于AI的话题。

We've covered a lot on AI.

对。

But Yeah.

不过，消费者也是进入2026年底时的一个重要话题。

The consumer is is a big story here too going into the end of twenty twenty six.

关于消费者，我们了解到了什么？

What have we learned about the consumer?

你知道吗，这挺有意思的。

You know, it's interesting.

总体来看，消费者支出作为一个大数字，仍然相当坚挺。

The consumer spending is still really held up broadly, like as a big number.

但我们看到的是，一小部分人口控制着大部分消费者支出，特别是可自由支配的开支。

But what we're seeing is a small percentage of the population controls the majority of the consumer dollars, like the discretionary dollars.

所以韧性是存在的，但也有很多人正在挣扎。

So the resilience has been there, but there's plenty of people that are struggling.

股市仍然处于非常高的水平，但看看麦当劳。

Stock market's still at these very high levels, but look at McDonald's.

看看Wingstop、TJX公司，就是TJ Maxx、Marshall背后的母公司，你知道，那些家居用品的母公司。

Look at Wingstop, TJX companies, the the TJ Maxx, Marshall, you know, the parent company behind some of those home goods.

耐克。

Nike.

耐克，我们稍后会讨论。

Nike, we're gonna talk about later.

这些公司都在挣扎，而且它们主要不是因为那些有大量可自由支配资金的消费者而挣扎，而是因为那些没有的消费者，对吧？

These companies are struggling, and they're struggling mostly on the backs of not the consumers that have plenty of discretionary funds, but the consumers that don't, right?

作为投资者，作为世界上的人，你会意识到很多人都在努力维持生计的现实。

And as an investor, as a person in the world, you're mindful of like the realities that a lot of people are struggling to make ends meet.

但作为投资者，这意味着有一些买入机会。

But as an investor, that means that there's some buying opportunities.

其中一些是令人难以置信的公司，它们变得非常便宜，而且它们表现优于它们所在的市场，这是宏观因素，对吧，现在疲软的是宏观，不是个别公司在挣扎，而是行业在下跌，而它们表现优于它们的行业。

Some of those are incredible companies that are getting really cheap, and they're outperforming like the markets that they're in, and it's macro stuff, right, that's weak right now, not individual companies that are struggling, but the industries are down, and they're outperforming their industries.

现在问题是，有一些很好的机会，但如果是宏观因素，你不知道需要多长时间才能恢复正常，再次变好，然后你才能作为投资者获得回报。

Now here's the thing, some great opportunities, but when it's macro, you don't know how long it's going to take before things normalize and get good again before you can be rewarded as an investor.

我觉得我们也得小心一点。

I think we should be careful too.

而且你看，现在有很多人在受苦，但情况还在恶化，这确实让我有点害怕。

And look, there's a lot of people suffering right now, but it's growing and that does scare me.

但作为投资者，想要判断宏观经济的话，其实还好。

But as far as being as an investor trying to figure out the macro economy, it's fine.

可能对所有人来说不是都好，但整体还行。

It might not be fine for everyone, but it's fine.

八月份消费者支出大幅增长，创下一年多来的最大涨幅。

Consumer spending jumped in August, its largest jump in over a year.

也许部分原因是通货膨胀。

Maybe that's partially inflation.

也许不是人们买得更多了。

Maybe that's not people are buying more.

但重点是，整体消费者比去年能花更多的钱。

But the point being that the consumer, the collective consumer was able to spend more than last year.

我不知道什么时候这个临界点会破裂。

I don't know at what point that critical mass breaks.

如果能够消费的消费者临界数量少于支撑经济所需的数量，那我们就麻烦了。

If the critical mass of consumers that are able to spend becomes less than what is needed to carry the economy, we're in trouble.

但我们已经预测这种情况超过一年了，甚至更久。

But we have been predicting this now for over a year, if not longer.

到目前为止还没有发生。

It hasn't happened so far.

我同意，Jason，看看这些个别公司，把它们当作买入机会确实很有意思。

I agree, Jason, that it's really interesting to look at some of these individual companies as maybe buying opportunities.

但我觉得我们需要非常小心，不要过度解读宏观数据。

But I think we need to be very careful not to read into the macro.

我知道你没有这样做，但不要基于任何一家公司来解读宏观数据。

And I know you weren't doing this, but read into the macro based on any one company.

Lou，房贷利率怎么样？

Lou, what about mortgage rates?

这是一件事。

This is one thing.

如果你现在想买房，你面对的是7.5%的房贷利率。

If if you're looking for a home right now, you're looking at seven and a half percent mortgage rates.

我们2018年买的房子，2020年重新贷款，我记得利率不到3%。

We bought our house in 2018, refinanced in 2020, I think it was, or it's under 3%.

这变化太大了。

That is a huge change.

你觉得这是不是未来一两年会影响经济或市场的阻力？

Is that a headwind that you think is going to be impacting either the economy and or markets in the next year or two?

利率确实比以前高，但已经高了一段时间了，我觉得已经影响了经济。

They're higher than they have been, but they've been high for a while, and I think it has impacted the economy.

现在说这些最新利率水平会比六个月前更影响经济，还为时过早。

I think it's too soon to say if these latest rate levels will impact the economy more than say six months ago.

这确实一直是长期的阻力。

It's definitely been a headwind for a long time.

我只是不确定，是不是又到了该大惊小怪的时候，毕竟利率从六点多涨到了七点多。

I just don't know if, again, it's time to play chicken little just because we've gone from six something to maybe seven something.

我对房地产行业关注得挺紧的。

I follow the housing, sector pretty closely.

房屋建筑商是我十多年来一直比较看好的群体，因为人口结构趋势有利，净移民趋势有利，市场往往供应不足。

Home builders is a a cohort that I've been pretty bullish on for over a decade because where the demographic trends are favorable, the net migration trends are favorable, the markets tend to be undersupplied.

但我们经历了一个非常奇怪的时期，很多现有房屋，比如待售的现有房屋数量，多年来一直保持在很低的水平，实际上从疫情开始就是这样。

But we've gone through this really strange period where a lot of existing homes, like the level of existing homes for sale, has stayed well, well down for years, really since the beginning of the pandemic.

大概只有一半，对吧？

About half, right?

是十年前或十五年前的一半。

Half of what it was a decade or fifteen years ago.

疫情确实加剧了这种情况。

And the pandemic really kind of exacerbated that.

而在过去一年左右，我们看到现有房屋库存，也就是挂牌出售的现有房屋数量，开始真正上升。

And what we've seen here over the past year or so is existing home inventory, number of existing homes listed for sale, has started to really move higher.

我觉得这总体上是好事，因为二手房交易对经济有很强的刺激作用。

I think generally that's a positive thing because existing home sales are very stimulative for the economy.

有人买了二手房，他们很可能会换地毯。

Somebody buys a used home, they're going to probably replace the carpet.

他们会先做一些照明升级，还有厨房和浴室的改造，然后才会开始考虑那些特别贵的东西。

They're going to do some upgrades of lighting and, you know, kitchen and bath stuff before they really start getting into, like, the super expensive stuff.

但这些事情在二手房交易发生时确实能刺激经济。

But those things stimulate the economy when existing home sales happen.

不过，再说到房屋建筑商。

But again, talked about homebuilders.

房屋建筑商的建造水平基本上处于过去五六年来的最低点。

Homebuilder building levels are basically at some of the lowest levels we've seen in the past five or six years.

新屋开工率大幅下降。

New home starts are well down.

而且，是的，从历史来看，利率大致高于过去六七十年来的平均水平。

And, yeah, interest rates historically are roughly like over the six or seven decade average.

但是，天哪，现在的房价比利率真的处于这个水平时要贵得多。

But, man, houses cost a lot more than they did when interest rates were really around this level.

所以这给那个行业带来了很大的压力。

So that's putting a lot of pressure on that industry right now.

年底了，投资者有很多事情要考虑。

A lot for investors to think about as we end the year.

回来之后，我们要聊聊耐克的最新业绩。

When we come back, we're gonna talk about the latest results from Nike.

你正在收听的是 Motley Fool 的《隐藏的宝石投资》。

You're listening to Motley Fool, hidden gems investment.

你刚发现你的销售团队可能完不成销售指标。

You just found out that your sales team is at risk of missing quota.

别慌。

Don't panic.

直接问问 Rippling AI 就行。

Just ask Rippling AI.

因为它是基于你实时的人员和业务数据构建的，Rippling AI 可以从 Rippling 和 Salesforce 中提取指标，生成一个会议就绪的仪表盘，显示配额完成情况、人员编制计划以及按地区划分的月度收入与配额对比。

Since it's built on your real time people and business data, Rippling AI can pull metrics from Rippling and Salesforce into a meeting ready dashboard showing quota attainment, headcount plan, and monthly revenue to quota by region.

几秒钟内，你就能清楚看到配额风险背后的原因，并在错过之前解决它。

In seconds, you'll see exactly what's behind your quota risk and fix it before it's missed.

问题得到解答，行动得以执行，危机得以避免。

Question answered, action taken, crisis averted.

当你有关键业务问题需要答案时，不要只是提交一个工单，然后等上几周才能拿到过时的报告。

When you have critical business questions that need answers, don't just file a ticket and wait weeks for an outdated report.

描述你的需求，让 Rippling AI 从你的实时人员和业务数据中即时构建解决方案。

Describe what you need and have Rippling AI build it instantly from your live people and business data.

无论是带有详细图表的仪表盘，还是带有正确触发器、条件和审批的自动化工作流。

Whether it's a dashboard with detailed charts or automated workflows with the right triggers, conditions, and approvals.

准备好掌控你的业务了吗？

Ready to rule your business?

前往 rippling.ai/fool，获取唯一一款能让你全面了解情况并在整个组织中执行复杂操作的 AI。

Head to rippling.ai/fool to get the only AI built to give you full visibility and take complex actions across your entire organization.

网址是 rippling.ai/fool。

That's rippling.ai/fool.

今天就注册获取独家访问权限，rippling.ai/fool。

Sign up for exclusive access today, rippling.ai/fool.

欢迎回到 Motley Fool 和 Gems 投资节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool and Gems investing.

耐克昨天股市收盘后公布了财报。

Nike reported earnings after the market closed yesterday.

Lou，这个案例我觉得一直很有意思。

And, Lou, this is one that I I think has been fascinating.

投资者可以从中吸取很多教训。

Lots of lessons for investors to learn.

但股价从高点下跌了约 81%，而那只是大约五年前的事。

But the stock's down about 81% from its high, which is only about five years ago.

他们表示本季度营收下降了 4%，但请注意，本财年营收预计将下降高个位数百分比。

They said that revenue was down 4% in the quarter, but get this, revenue is expected to be down high single digits for this fiscal year.

现在耐克好像什么都不顺。

It seems like nothing is going right for Nike right now.

是啊。

No.

有些是他们自己造成的，有些是他们控制不了的。

And some of it's self inflicted, some of it's beyond their control.

其实这个故事有两部分。

I mean, there's two parts of the story.

第一，他们搞砸了。

One, they screwed up.

他们说我们不再需要零售了。

They said we don't need retail anymore.

我们要直接面向消费者。

We're going to be just direct to consumer.

他们和很多重要合作伙伴闹翻了，现在还在自食其果。

They burned a lot of bridges with very important partners and that is still biting them.

但话说回来，我也不知道就算他们没搞砸，结果会不会不一样。

But also, I don't know if it would have mattered anyway.

世界已经变了。

The world changed.

现在只要有一个厉害的Instagram网红，就能把品牌做起来。

You just need one good Instagram influencer to launch a brand.

不像八十年代，耐克砸钱请大明星就能称霸市场。

It's not like in the eighties where Nike could throw money at big stars and just dominate.

现在品牌多到数不清，你永远不可能再拥有那样的市场份额了。

There is just a trillion more brands now, and you're never gonna have that share.

我觉得耐克再也回不到从前那个耐克了。

I don't think Nike is ever gonna be the Nike of old.

如果投资者想关注这家公司，他们得调整一下预期。

I think if investors want to look here, they need to reset expectations.

它依然是个巨头。

It's still massive.

它仍然是个好品牌。

It's still a good brand.

它还会继续存在。

It's gonna continue to exist.

但它不会像以前那样了。

It's not going to be what it was before.

而且每个季度，打击接踵而至。

And just quarter by quarter, just the beatings continue.

那是……

That's...

这仍然是一个卓越、了不起的企业。

This is still an exceptional, incredible business.

作为投资者，很容易因为股价跌了80%就锚定思维，觉得这真是个烂股。

And as investors, it's easy to anchor on seeing the stock down 80% and think, man, this is just a dog.

它仍然是个很棒的企业。

It's still a wonderful business.

但现在的一切都和十年前、十五年前或二十年前不一样了。

But everything's different now than it was ten or fifteen or twenty years ago.

西方市场已经非常成熟了。

Western markets are very mature.

你回到那么久以前，人们不会像现在这样在各种场合穿运动鞋。

You go back that long ago, and people weren't wearing athletic shoes in the same settings that they are now.

所以这个市场已经发展到了现在这么大的规模。

So that pie has kind of grown as big as it is.

现在基本上就是跟着GDP增长走了。

It's basically GDP growth now.

所以任何增长快于市场的公司，都是在抢占别人的份额。

And so anybody that's growing faster than the market, they're just taking share from somebody else.

这意味着，耐克其实在很多年里，在它的核心市场一直在打防守战。

That means that really Nike's been playing a lot of defense in its core markets for a lot of years already.

所以把这两点放在一起看，投资者真的就……

So you put those two things together, and investors just really...

对于像耐克这样的公司，你得有正确的预期。

You have to have the right expectations about a company like Nike.

我不知道四五年前、三年前，或者2024年那种一切达到顶峰、估值也达到顶峰的时候，这些预期是否真的对得上。

I don't know that those expectations were very aligned four or five years ago, three years ago, 2024, kind of when everything peaked and the valuation also kind of peaked as well.

作为打破常规的投资者，别误会，我很乐意为一支被普遍认为严重高估的公司支付溢价估值。

As a rule breaker, don't get me wrong, I'm very happy to pay a premium valuation for a company that the common belief is that it's just wildly overpriced.

但前提是另一边必须有巨大的机会，而耐克目前的业务并不具备这一点。

But there has to be an enormous opportunity on the other side, and that's just not where Nike's business is right now.

所以要注意这一点，它可能是一家完全不错的公司，但到了这个阶段，你得用合理的估值买入，否则只会面临表现不佳。

So just be mindful of that, and it can be a perfectly fine business, but it's at the point you've gotta pay a good valuation or you're just walking into underperformance.

杰森，你怎么看……

Jason, how do you think about...

我们之前聊过一点关于消费者在哪里花钱的话题。

We talked a little bit earlier about consumers where they're spending.

有些消费者过得不错，有些则不然。

Certain consumers are doing well, certain consumers are not.

看起来耐克正在走下坡路。

It seems like Nike is heading in a negative direction.

如果我们看看这个领域的其他股票，比如昂跑、Deckers Outdoor，这些股票也跌了，但它们还在增长。

If we look at other stocks in the space on holding, deckers outdoor, those stocks are down as well, but they're growing.

这是不是意味着……

Does that make...

这些是不是你在寻找的那种机会，就是说，嘿。

Are those the kind of opportunities that you're looking at is, hey.

市场好像把这些品牌都抛弃了，但其中……

The market's kind of throwing all of these brands out, but there...

这里面肯定有一些赢家。

There's some winners here somewhere.

确实有……

There are...

Deckers 有意思的地方在于，它们的成功是收购带来的。

The thing about Deckers that's so interesting is that their success is a product of acquisition.

你知道吗，他们一开始是做拖鞋的公司，后来收购了UGG，还收购了那个，叫什么来着，运动鞋，跑鞋？

You know, they started off as a flip flops company, and they acquired UGG's, and they acquired, what's this, the sneakers, their running shoes?

HOKA。

HOKA.

我觉得是他们自己开发的，对。

I think they developed Yeah.

那个

That

而且HOKA今年，我觉得，可能会超过UGG，成为更大的业务。

And HOKA is actually, I think this year, going to pass UGGs as being the larger business.

所以发生的事情真是不可思议，而且它们两个都还相对较小。

So it's pretty incredible what's happened, and they're both still relatively small.

UGG已经比较成熟了，但HOKA还有增长潜力。

UGGs is kind of mature, but HOKA, there's still growth potential there for those businesses.

但到了某个时候，会达到一个临界规模。

But at some point, get to a critical mass.

我们在安德玛身上就看到了这种情况，它曾经是十年的增长宠儿，然后达到了一个临界点。

We saw this with Under Armour, which was a growth darling for a decade, and then it hit a critical mass.

公司在试图自我革新的过程中犯了不少错误。

There were a lot of stumbles the company made along the way trying to reinvent itself.

卢提到的那些关于供应链管理和零售关系的事情，以及诸如此类的东西，在达到临界点之前，处理好这些关系，把产品送到消费者面前，尽可能快地增长，这一点非常重要。

The things Lou talked about with managing your supply chain and retail relationships and all that kind of stuff, And it's so important to manage those in relationships to get your products in front of consumers wherever they are and grow as quickly as you can before you get to that critical mass.

我觉得像Deckers这样的公司，尤其是……存在一些风险回报的机会？

I think there's some risk reward opportunity with a company like Deckers especially on?

我不太确定。

I'm not so sure.

我知道你是它的忠实粉丝，所以我有点在逗你。

I know it's a big fan of you, so I'm kinda trolling you a little.

我们拭目以待，看看这些品牌未来会走向何方。

We'll see where these brands go in the future.

等我们回来，我们要玩一个“过/不过”的游戏。

When we come back, we're gonna play over under.

嘿。

Hey.

我是科技新闻周刊的Micah Sargent。

It's Micah Sargent from tech news weekly.

在本周的节目中，我和The Verge的Jennifer Patisson Toohey聊了聊META的180亿美元和解案，以及他们通过扣留部分资金来牵制TikTok和YouTube的事情。

And on this week's show, I spoke with Jennifer Patisson Toohey of The Verge about META having an $18,000,000,000 settlement and also sort of holding TikTok TikTok and YouTube hostage through some of that money being withheld.

这挺疯狂的。

It's pretty wild.

我们还聊了令人惊叹的Cyberdeck热潮，以及树莓派终于开始积极投入其中。

We also talk about the incredible Cyberdeck craze and how Raspberry Pi is finally leaning in.

Dee Griffin Jones也加入了我们，带我们了解了苹果的硬件发布，包括M5和M6芯片、新的Mac Studio、新的Mac Mini，还预告了九月份的iPhone发布会。

And Dee Griffin Jones joins us to walk us through Apple's hardware announcements, the m five and m six chips, its new Mac Studio, a new Mac Mini, and then gives us a preview of the upcoming iPhone event in September.

如果你想订阅《科技新闻周刊》，只需在你获取播客的任何地方搜索“科技新闻周刊”，或者访问twit.tv/tnw。

If you would like to subscribe to Tech News Weekly, just search for Tech News Weekly wherever you get your podcasts or head to twit.tv/tnw.

欢迎回到Motley Fool的隐藏宝石投资节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

各位，我想玩一个叫“高于还是低于”的小游戏。

Guys, I wanna play a little game called over under.

我会给你一个数字，我想知道。

I'm gonna give you a number I wanna know.

你觉得五年左右以后，事情会变得更高还是更低？

Do you think things are gonna be higher or lower five or so years from now?

我们先从刚才聊的那家公司开始。

Let's start with the company we just talked about.

就是耐克。

That is Nike.

耐克的股票目前在我们录制的时候，实际交易价格大约是33美元。

Nike stock currently actually trading for about $33 as we're recording.

昨天收盘时是35美元。

It was 35 at the close yesterday.

杰森，到2030年，耐克的股价会比每股35美元更高还是更低？

Jason, in 2030, is Nike stock going to be higher or lower than $35 per share?

会更高，我觉得会接近50。

Higher, and I'm gonna say it's gonna be closer to 50.

好的。

Okay.

那么，Travis，你给我的年复合增长率是多少？

So, Travis, you're giving me a a CAGR of what?

大概1.18左右，我想。

1.18 here or so, I think, on this.

预期很低，但过去五年，这可能会大幅亏损。

Low expectations, but but over the last five years, this would have lost by a wide margin.

我觉得会更高。

I I I think it's higher.

我的意思是，即使50，那是不是……

I mean, even 50, is that...

那可能跑不赢大盘。

That's not probably a market beater.

我觉得它既会更高，也不是市场领先者。

I I think it's both higher and not a market beater.

有意思。

It's funny.

我……

I'm...

我是个成长型投资者，但看到一家负增长的公司，前瞻市盈率还有23倍，我肯定会选择看跌。

I am a growth investor, but I look at a company with negative growth and a price to earnings multiple on a forward basis that's still 23, and and I would have taken the under.

我很惊讶你们俩都没这么做。

I'm surprised neither of you did.

我认为它会更高的原因是……

The reason I think it's gonna be higher is...

再说一次，起点和终点之间的差异，以及你如何到达那里，是有区别的。

And again, there's the difference between where it starts and finishes and how you get there.

我觉得过程中会非常颠簸，但最终他们会达到某种正常化的状态，并且会有他们的优势。

I think things are going to be really bumpy along the way, but I think they're going to get to a point where they're to kind of normalize things and things have their advantage.

即使他们的利润率继续小幅下滑，那个庞大的购买力依然存在。

Even if their margins do continue to erode a little bit, that massive power is a buyer.

而且他们能从中获得一些杠杆效应。

And they get some leverage from that.

所以我觉得这会有所帮助。

So I think that's going to help.

规模优势仍然会发挥作用，我依然认为这会是一家非常赚钱的公司。

That scale is going to still benefit, and I still think it's going be a really profitable company.

而且我觉得投资者的预期也会随着时间有所调整，最终会达到一个平衡点，一切都会好起来的。

And I think investor expectations will change a little bit along the way too, and it's going to kind of come to just a happy medium where it's going to be fine.

再加上5%的股息收益率，目前在我看来相当安全。

Throw in a 5% dividend yield too, which looks pretty safe right now to me.

他们确实还在赚钱，但你知道，几年前你也可以对安德玛说同样的话，你一直看着它，觉得这是个好价值。

They're they're still making money, but, you know, you could have said the same thing about Under Armour a handful of years ago where you keep looking at it and going, ah, this is a great value.

这是个好价值，但它就是不断下跌。

This is a great value, and it just keeps keeps declining.

但我们会看看最终结果如何。

But we will see where things end up.

我想谈谈Netflix，我们马上要讨论的那家公司。

I wanna talk about Netflix, the company we're gonna talk about in just a moment.

到2030年，Netflix会转播多少场NFL比赛？

How many NFL games is Netflix gonna have in 2030?

这里的背景是，NFL合同在这个十年末有一些退出条款。

Part of the context here is there's some outs in the NFL contract towards the end of this decade.

所以2030年、2031年，Lou，他们每年会有超过还是少于12场NFL比赛？

So 2030, 2031, Lou, are they gonna have more or less than 12 NFL games per year?

我就试着当那个唱反调的人吧。

I'm gonna just try and be that guy here.

我觉得答案可能是超过，但我会说少于，因为我不确定这些到底能带来多少价值。

I I think the answer is probably over, but I'm gonna say under because I'm not sure how much value all of this drive.

再说，是……

Again, is...

再说，他们也是在摸索阶段。

Again, they're they're experimenting.

我不确定他们最后会不会说，这就是我们的核心内容，我们只需要花这么多钱来让现有订阅用户满意。

I'm not sure they're gonna say at the end of the day, this is the property, this is the level of spending we need just to keep our existing subscribers happy.

所以如果他们……我也不会觉得意外。

So it wouldn't surprise me if they...

他们还在做体育直播。

They're still in live sports.

他们还在做其他事情，但他们可能就会说，你知道吗？

They're still doing other things, but they've just said, you know what?

NFL不值得花这个钱，反正大家都已经订阅了。

NFL, it's not worth the cost given that everyone's already subscribed anyway.

12场比赛的问题在于，如果你想想他们在做什么，有……

The problem with 12 games is if you think about what they're doing, there's...

现在有周一晚上的橄榄球赛。

So there's Monday night football right now.

还有周四晚上的橄榄球赛，这些基本上就是他们的……

There's Thursday night football, which are just kind of their...

就是说，这些比赛有让人看的理由。

Like, there's reasons to watch them.

当然，你知道，大竞争对手在亚马逊Prime上有周四晚上的比赛。

Of course, you know, big competitor has the Thursday night games over on Amazon Prime.

但他们有的那些比赛内容，都是非常特别的赛事，比如节假日期间的比赛之类的。

But the content, games that they have are very special events, around the holidays, that kind of thing.

我觉得这几乎能给他们保证一定数量的观众。

And I think that gives them like almost like a guaranteed amount of audience.

一旦你开始进入两位数的比赛场次，除了球迷支持自己的球队之外，你就很难再找到让人看的理由了。

You start getting into double digit numbers, and you're running out of reasons for people to watch beyond it being a team that they root for.

我觉得这就是比赛场次增加到那么多时面临的挑战之一。

And I think that's one of the challenges for the number getting that big.

所以基于这个原因，再加上我们说的只是四五年后的事，我赌的是低于这个数字。

So for that reason, and the fact that we're only talking four or five years from now, I'm taking the under.

我觉得大概会保持在现在这个水平附近。

I'm thinking probably closer to where they are now.

这个真的会很有意思，因为我觉得……

This one's gonna be really interesting to watch because I...

我觉得NFL可能以为如果他们退出一些合同，就能拿到大幅加薪，但我不知道谁会愿意出这个钱。

The NFL, I think, thinks they're gonna get a big raise if they opt out out of some of these deals, and I I don't know who's gonna pay it.

还有一点背景信息，我觉得我在节目里提过，就是Netflix……

The other piece of context here, and I I think I've talked about this on the show, but that Netflix...

你刚才说的那个圣诞比赛，Jason，那是维京人的比赛。

Christmas game that you were talking about, Jason, that was a Vikings game.

我的主队，比赛进行的时候我正在吃午饭。

My home team, I was eating lunch while the game was going on.

Netflix是一家流媒体公司。

Netflix is a streaming company.

我想着等比赛结束再去看回放……

I figured I'll just go watch the game when I...