英伟达财报表现惊艳全场

天哪，英伟达的财报到底怎么样？

Oh boy, did NVIDIA's earnings deliver?

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Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是主持人 Crowe。

I'm your host, Crowe.

今天和我一起的是长期为 Fool 撰稿的 Matt Frankel 和 Jon Quast。

And today, I'm joined by long time Fool contributors, Matt Frankel and Jon Quast.

各位，我觉得这大概是我们这周一直在等的事情。

Guys, I think this has kind of been the thing we've all been waiting for this week.

就是英伟达的财报。

It was NVIDIA's earnings report.

昨天收盘后公布的。

It came out after the close yesterday.

这可能是最受期待的财报，甚至比那些超大规模企业还要受关注。

Probably the most anticipated earnings report, even more so than, like, the hyperscalers.

我觉得可以说这份财报没有让人失望。

And I think it's fair to say that the report did not disappoint.

我们今天早上录制时，股价已经上涨了大约7%。

Shares are up about 7% as we're taping this morning.

不知怎么的，公司超出了盈利预期和指引预期，到了这个时候，我开始觉得，英伟达可以说是华尔街最受关注的公司了。

Somehow, the company smashed earnings expectations and guidance expectations, which at this point, I'm starting to think like, NVIDIA is arguably the most followed company on Wall Street.

如果公司能这样轻松超越预期，我几乎开始怀疑，是华尔街分析师们不太擅长自己的工作，还是这只是一个非常出色的季度？

If if the company can blast past expect expectations like this, almost start to wonder, are Wall Street Analysts not really good at their jobs, or was this just an incredible quarter here?

可能两者都有。

Maybe both.

我不是说所有华尔街分析师，但可能有些是这样。

I'm not all Wall Street Analysts, but maybe some.

不过，是的，这确实是一个了不起的季度。

But, yeah, this is just an incredible quarter.

而且，我觉得今天对每个投资者来说都像过生日一样，因为英伟达的财报太棒了。

And, I mean, it's every investor's birthday today with NVIDIA.

你看看这家全球最大的公司，营收增长了106%，简直就像个初创公司一样。

You look at the largest company in the world reporting a 106% revenue growth, like it's some sort of scrappy startup.

这简直让人难以置信。

It's utterly unbelievable.

再看看他们对未来一年的预期。

And then you look at the guidance for the coming year.

他们预计在今年的基础上再增长70%。

So it's guiding for 70% revenue growth on top of what it's reporting this year.

这可是几百亿美元的大数字，而且关键是，华尔街本来就已经预期会有好消息了。

We're we're talking tens of billions of dollars, and the thing with that guidance is that Wall Street was expecting good stuff.

华尔街原本预期明年增长45%。

Wall Street's expecting 45% growth in the coming year.

英伟达却说增长70%。

NVIDIA is saying 70% growth.

关键在于，这表示如果英伟达能生产更多产品，业绩甚至还会更高，但它说现在受供应限制，前景也受供应制约。

And the thing with that is, it's indicating that it would even be higher if it could physically make the stuff, but saying that it is supply constrained, that it's a supply constrained outlook.

换句话说，如果我们能生产更多，供应更充足，那么明年的营收增长可能会更高，但我们做不到。

In other words, if we could make more, if we could have more supply, then perhaps we could deliver more revenue growth in the coming year, we can't.

所以我们说大约70%。

So we're saying around 70%.

简直难以置信。

Unbelievable.

今年前五大超大规模数据中心运营商的资本支出大约8000亿美元。

The top five hyperscalers spending roughly 800,000,000,000 in CapEx this year.

很多投资者认为这个速度不可持续。

And many investors believe that's been unsustainable, that pace.

但英伟达表示，他们预计这些超大规模运营商明年的支出将达到1.3万亿美元。

But NVIDIA is saying they expect the hyperscalers to spend 1,300,000,000,000 in the coming year.

所以比今年多出5000亿美元。

So 500,000,000,000 more than what they've are going to spend this year.

所以这就是你要的关键数字。

So there's your headline numbers.

对。

Yeah.

所以，像这样年同比增长106%的公司，一般不会像英伟达那样以25倍的远期市盈率交易。

So companies that grow revenue at a 106% year over year generally don't trade for 25 times forward earnings like NVIDIA does.

可以说，市场已经为未来的增速放缓定价了。

It's fair to say that the stock is pricing in an eventual deceleration.

你提到最初的估计是去年45%的营收增长，这相比106%来说是个相当大的放缓。

You mentioned the original estimate was for 45% revenue growth last year, which is a pretty big deceleration from a 106%.

所以现在他们给出70%，或者说他们说是70%，而且他们历来有低估自己估计的倾向，你知道，这才是股价真正上涨的原因。

So now that we're getting 70% or they're saying 70%, which they have a good history of on of, you know, low balling their estimates, you know, that's the real reason the stock is rising.

公司表示，它只能满足其产品需求的约70%。

The company set itself that it can only satisfy about 70% of the demand it's seeing for its products.

所以，并不是盈利本身的问题。

And so it's not the earnings themselves.

每个季度，大家都预期英伟达的财报会略好于指引和分析师的预期。

Everyone expects NVIDIA's earnings to be bet slightly better than than than the guidance and and analyst expectations every quarter.

实际上，英伟达财报刚出来时股价还跌了，直到那些前瞻指引数据公布后才回升。

In fact, NVIDIA initially fell when the report came out before all those forward guidance numbers were revealed.

所以，当然，确实有一些担忧。

So, I mean, there are sure.

确实存在因内存成本导致的利润率压缩担忧，但目前你基本上是用你75%毛利率中的大约300个基点，也就是三个百分点，来换取未来营收增长预期的大约翻倍。

There are margin compression concerns due to memory costs, but right now, you're you're essentially trading about 300 basis points or three percentage points of your 75% gross margin in exchange for roughly doubling your revenue, growth expectations going forward.

所以利润率值得关注。

But so the margins will be worth watching.

英伟达的利润率几乎每个季度都在持续扩张，但现在情况不再是这样了。

NVIDIA's margins have been expanding pretty much without fail for quarter after quarter after quarter, and that's no longer the case.

不过这份财报没什么可挑剔的。

But not much not to like about this report.

有点奇怪。

It's kinda strange.

我有点不知道该说什么了，这可能是史上最糟糕的播客了，你懂的。

I'm a little bit of a at a loss for words for this, which makes for arguably the worst podcast, you know, media ever.

但是，你知道，这么大的指引调整显然会对整个AI基础设施生态系统产生深远影响，不只是英伟达。

But, you know, this guidance revision this large is obviously going to have like an imp a profound impact on the entire AI infrastructure ecosystem, not just NVIDIA.

我是说，我们今天看到股价在上涨。

I mean, we're seeing shares rise today.

而且我们实际上供应受限，而不是像一些新进入者，比如谷歌那种定制芯片，所有超大规模数据中心都在自己造芯片。

And this idea that we're actually supply constrained versus, I don't know, maybe some of these new entrants like Google's kind of these custom built chips that all the hyperscaler was building themselves.

之前有人担心需求可能不够，但现在需求确实存在。

There was like this concern that maybe demand might be there, but it is there.

所以考虑到这一点，所有来自英伟达和其他公司的供应都进入市场，我们仍然供应受限。你知道，我们之前几次讨论过AI基础设施建设的“卖铲子”公司，但我想挑战一下你们，因为这是未来几年最大的故事，很难回避。

So with that in mind, like, all of this supply coming to the market from NVIDIA, from these other companies, and we're still supply constrained, you know, we've covered like the picks and shovels of the AI infrastructure build out a couple of times here, but I wanna challenge you guys a bit because this is the biggest story over the next couple of years, it's hard to avoid.

在这个“卖铲子”行业里，有哪些公司会因为这次指引调整而成为赢家或输家？

What are some of the companies in this picks and shovels part of the industry that this revision kind of signals to that are gonna be like the winners and losers?

也许我们可以重点关注一些不太知名的公司，真正深入挖掘我们“隐藏宝石”的主题。

And maybe let's focus on some of the ones that are a little lesser known here and really lean into our hidden gems kinda theme here.

嗯，泰勒，我想指出马特刚才提到的关于英伟达未来毛利率的担忧，现在所有AI相关的东西都有更高的内存成本，这会影响到英伟达的一些利润率。

Well, Tyler, I want to just point out what Matt said here regarding the gross margin concerns going forward for NVIDIA, there are there's higher memory cost going into everything with AI, and that is going to impact some of NVIDIA's margins.

而且正如你指出的，对英伟达来说可能不是什么大问题，但让我就抓住这个内存成本上升的点。

And as you pointed out, maybe not a big deal with NVIDIA, but let me just latch on to that higher memory cost thing.

我觉得这对像惠普这样的公司来说就有点麻烦了。

I think that that becomes a little bit problematic for a company such as HP.

而且我觉得这算是这里的输家，因为现在的情况就是这样。

And I'm this is kind of a a loser here because of what's going on here.

我这么说不仅仅是因为惠普今天股价下跌，你看看消费设备。

And I'm not just saying that because HP stock is down today, but you look at consumer devices.

很多内存公司，也许不是很多，但有些已经完全退出消费市场，因为AI基础设施交易的需求太大了。

Many of these memory companies, maybe not many, but some of them have pivoted away from consumer market entirely because there's so much demand in the AI infrastructure trade.

所以，这些内存公司完全转向那边。

So, these memory companies pivoting exclusively to that.

所以，不仅内存价格普遍上涨，现在一些供应消费市场的公司也已经退出了。

So, not only are memory prices going up generally, but now some of the companies supplying the consumer market have exited that.

所以消费市场的短缺就更严重了。

So there's even a bigger shortage in the consumer part of the market.

内存成本在个人电脑总成本中的占比会越来越高。

The memory costs are going to be a higher and higher percentage of the overall cost going into making a personal computer.

所以个人电脑的成本在上升，这对惠普这样的公司来说真的很难。

So the cost of a personal computer going up, that is really hard for a business like HP.

看看戴尔，至少它有AI服务器业务的顺风，支撑着它的增长。

You look at DELL, at least it has the tailwind from its AI server business that is supporting its growth.

惠普并没有这样的优势。

HP doesn't really have that.

所以我觉得，如果你是惠普，处境会很艰难。

So I would say that's a tough place to be if you're HP.

另一方面，我们来谈谈一个隐藏的赢家。

On the other side, let's talk about a hidden winner here.

我们说的是，英伟达说未来十二到二十四个月会多卖多少GPU，这个数字可能还不确定。

And we're talking about potentially, I don't know how many extra GPUs that NVIDIA is saying it's going to sell in the next twelve to twenty four months.

那数量会非常大。

It's gonna be a lot.

就这么说吧。

Let's put it that way.

所以GPU互联正成为一个越来越大的趋势。

So GPU interconnectivity is a bigger and bigger trend.

我关注一家公司，比如CRDO Technologies，股票代码是CRDO。

I look at a company such as CRDO Technologies, ticker symbol CRDO.

这家公司是市场上几家能从GPU互联需求增长中受益的公司之一。

This is a company one of the several companies out there that can benefit from increased need in GPU interconnectivity.

但看Credo的时候，我确实喜欢它的一点是它规模很小。

But when I look at Credo, one of the things that I do like about it is how small it is.

英伟达表示，未来一年，前五大超大规模数据中心可能会投入1.3万亿美元。

NVIDIA is saying 1,300,000,000,000 potentially in spending in the next year from the top five hyperscalers.

好的。

Okay.

CRDO科技现在的营收只有13亿美元，但过去一年已经翻了三倍，预计明年还能增长80%。

CRDO technology only has 1,300,000,000 in revenue right now, and it's tripled in the last year expecting 80% growth in the coming year.

我觉得这只股票会表现不错。

I believe this stock can be a good performer.

假设未来几年它的营收能达到50亿美元，那也只是英伟达预测的那笔巨额支出中的一小部分。

Let's say, it reaches 5,000,000,000 in revenue within the next several years, that is just a drop of the gush of spending that NVIDIA is projecting here.

所以我觉得这家公司可能不太引人注意，但也许是个隐藏的赢家。

And so that is one that I think can be under the radar, maybe a hidden winner here.

我也来说几个隐藏的赢家和输家吧。

I mean, I'll I'll call out a few hidden winners and losers here.

先说几个赢家，这两家公司的市值都在150亿美元左右，而且大多数人可能都没听说过它们。

So a couple of winners, they're they're both roughly $15,000,000,000 market cap companies, and both are companies that most people haven't heard of.

第一家是ONTO Innovation，拼写是o n t o。

The first one's ONTO Innovation, o n t o.

他们生产用于制造所有存储产品的检测工具，这些产品正是推动供应紧张的关键。

They make the inspection tools used in making all these memory products that, you know, are are fueling that that, you know, supply challenge.

还有一个隐含的信息是，英伟达预计明年增长70%。

And and kind of a between the lines takeaway is NVIDIA's 70% expected growth rate next year.

这意味着公司需要的存储芯片会比预期多得多，所以这可能是一个积极的推动因素。

It implies that the company is gonna need a lot more memory than expected, so that could be a positive tailwind there.

另一家公司叫IES Holdings。

Another one's called IES Holdings.

股票代码是IESC。

Ticker symbol is IESC.

他们为数据中心设计电力系统。

They design electric systems for data centers.

我们之前聊过舒适系统。

We've talked about comfort systems.

这里的情况有点类似，他们还服务其他终端市场。

It's kinda similar story here, among other end markets they serve.

而且，如果超大规模数据中心的资本支出明年从8000亿美元增加到1.3万亿美元，你知道，电力是数据中心发展的一个重大制约因素。

And, I mean, if hyperscaler CapEx goes from $800,000,000,000 to $1,300,000,000,000 next year, you know, power is a big constraint for data center development.

所以像这样的公司，不仅会有很多活儿要干，还会有很强的定价权。

And so companies like this are gonna have not only a lot to do, but a lot of pricing power.

但在输家这边，Jon 真的说到了点子上，他说任何需要内存的公司，不管是哪种消费电子产品，都可能是输家。

But, but on the loser's end, Jon really hit the nail on the head when he said that memory any any company that needs memory for any type of consumer electronics could be a loser.

所以虽然我很喜欢这家公司及其管理团队，但我得点名 GRMN，就是 GRMN。

So although I love the company and its management team, I gotta call out GRMN here, GRMN.

他们所有产品都依赖第三方内存。

They rely on third party memory for all their products.

尽管他们做得很好，但随着像 NVIDIA 这样的公司抢走越来越多的内存产能，这可能会推高 Garmin 设备的价格，或者如果他们不想转嫁涨价，就会导致利润率被压缩。

And as much as much of a great job as as they've done, with companies like NVIDIA scooping up more and more of the memory capacity, it could raise prices on on Garmin devices or result in margin compression if they don't wanna pass along price increases.

这可能是个暂时的问题，但绝对值得关注像这样的公司。

It's likely to be a pretty temporary problem, but it's definitely one that's worth watching for companies like that.

有意思的是，看看制造商们，你知道，NVIDIA 是芯片公司，但他们把所有东西都外包给台积电。

It'll be interesting to see if the manufacturers, you know, NVIDIA is a chip company, but they outsource everything to Taiwan Semiconductor.

我非常好奇，对于内存公司、芯片制造商、代工厂，我们会不会开始讨论大幅扩产，因为我们到处都看到瓶颈，不管是电力、GPU、CPU、内存，随便你说哪种芯片，我们现在似乎都缺货。

I will be fascinated to see with, like, with the memory companies as well as the chip manufacturers, the foundry companies, if we start talking about significant expansion of production, because everywhere we look, we're looking at these constrained bottlenecks, whether it be electricity, whether it be GPUs, CPUs, memory, name your chip, we seem to be running short right now.

所以我觉得未来几个季度我们真正要关注的一个话题是，这些公司会不会大幅扩大产能来真正满足这个需求？

So I feel like one of the stories we're gonna be really following in the coming quarters is, are we going to see significant expansion of capacity from these companies to actually meet this demand?

因为如果不这样的话，工人就会一直陷在这种需求旺盛但供应不足的困境里，而且很多公司，你知道的，赢家和输家会继续沿着这条路走下去，除非有什么重大的变化。

Because otherwise, workers are gonna be stuck in this demand short on supply short on supply sort of thing, and and a lot of these companies are gonna, you know, have the winners and losers continue down this path unless there is some significant change.

休息之后，我们还有另一份财报要播报。

Coming up after the break, we got another earnings report coming up.

我们还有Crowdstrike，今天在市场上也表现得很棒。

We got Crowdstrike, who was also having an awesome day in the market.

就在我们录制的时候，Crowdstrike的股价上涨了18%，因为公司刚刚发布了财报，又是一份出色的财报，和之前NVIDIA的情况很像。

Shares of Crowdstrike are up 18% as we're taping right now after company reported earnings, another great earnings report similar to what we saw with NVIDIA here.

这和我们一直在讨论的很多关于AI的事情非常契合，因为之前有一种说法，就是AI和黑客攻击，基本上现在大部分网络安全都会被AI代理淘汰。

And this pairs rather nicely with a lot of things that we've been talking about with AI because there was this kind of story around like AI and hacking and the idea of like, basically, most of cybersecurity these days is going to be rendered obsolete by AI agents.

但根据这些财报和NVIDIA的指引，这似乎并不是真正的问题所在。

But based on these earnings reports and NVIDIA's guidance, that doesn't seem to be the actual issue here.

看起来AI可能是在推动客户增加支出，而不是减少支出。

It seems as though AI may be pushing customers to spending more instead of less.

各位，报告里说了什么？

Guys, what are the mark what did the report say?

对。

Yeah.

所以，嗯，英伟达的反应主要是基于它的前瞻指引。

So, I mean, well, NVIDIA's reaction was generally based on its forward guidance.

Crowdstrike 这个季度简直是爆了，就这么简单。

Crowdstrike just reported a blowout quarter, period.

不是因为营收同比增长了26%，这已经是加速增长了。

Not because revenue grew 26% year over year, which was an acceleration.

真正的数字是，年度经常性收入的净新增同比增长了51%。

The real number is that net new growth in annual recurring revenue was up 51% year over year.

这是公司历史上的纪录。

That's a company record.

这是 Crowdstrike 即使在早期快速增长阶段也从未做到过的。

That's something Crowdstrike was has never been able to do even in the much earlier phases of its growth ramping up.

新增年度经常性收入比管理层自己的预期还高出约17%。

Net new ARR, that was about 17% higher than even management's own guidance.

所以很明显，人工智能正在以远超专家预期的速度推动网络安全需求。

So AI is clearly fueling demand for cybersecurity at a much stronger rate than more than experts thought.

剩余履约义务，也就是积压订单的术语说法，同比增长了49%，达到略超100亿美元。

The remaining performance obligation, which is kind of the technical word for the backlog, grew by 49% year over year to a little over $10,000,000,000.

调整后营业利润率增长了350个基点。

Adjusted operating margin grew by 350 basis points.

管理层大幅上调了全年指引，无论是营收还是利润方面。

Management raised its full year guidance significantly on both the top and bottom line.

这份财报发布前，市场预期已经非常高了。

There were very high expectations going into this report.

这是一只估值很高的股票，但Crowdstrike确实又交出了一份出色的季度成绩。

It's a highly valued stock, but Crowdstrike really delivered another great quarter.

我喜欢Crowdstrike首席执行官在电话会议上这句毫不掩饰的犀利点评。

I love this not so subtle zinger from Crowdstrike CEO here from the conference call.

AI正在清晰地划分出两类网络安全公司：一类是解决问题的，另一类是让问题变得更复杂的。

AI is driving a clear divide between the cybersecurity companies that solve problems and those that compound problems.

至于Crowdstrike认为自己是哪一类，你们自己判断吧。

And I'll let you decide which one Crowdstrike says it is itself.

但这里最有趣的是，正如Matt所说，这个季度新增业务表现非常出色。

But what is so interesting here is to Matt's point, this was a great new quarter for net new business during the quarter.

而且管理团队表示，这得益于“神话时刻”。

And the management team saying that this is as a result of the mythos moment.

如果你们还记得“神话”发布的时候，那是那些AI模型之一，据说突破了限制，引发了一些问题，他们不得不撤回，等等等等。

So if you remember mythos coming out, and this is one of those AI models out there, supposedly broke containment and caused some problems, they had to pull it and yada yada.

投资者最初把这视为对网络安全领域的威胁。

Investors saw this initially as a threat to the cybersecurity space.

但Crowdstrike管理层表示，这实际上对我们有利。

Crowdstrike management saying this is actually gonna be a benefit for us.

现在，数据也证明了这一点。

Right now, the numbers are backing that up.

你看，Mythos发布的时间点，加上那些炒作，然后Crowdstrike的业务就上来了。

You see the timing of the mythos being released and all that buzz, and then you see the uplift in Crowdstrike's business.

不过，我得戴上怀疑的帽子，因为过去几年Crowdstrike的计费方式有一些变化，最近的变化。

That said, I will put on my skeptical hat here because there are some changes, some recent changes in the last couple of years to Crowdstrike's billing methods.

所以现在所有新客户都采用这种灵活的计费模式。

And so all new customers are now coming in in this flex billing model.

以前呢，他们可能签一年的合同，然后从Crowdstrike大约二十多个网络安全模块里选要用的。现在呢，你有一个消费承诺，可以把钱灵活分配到你想试的模块上，也可以从那些不适合你的模块上撤出来。

So whereas before, they signed contracts maybe for the year and they picked which modules they wanted to adopt from Crowdstrike's roughly two dozen cybersecurity module options, now you kind of have a spending commitment, you can flex that into modules that you're experimenting with, flex away from the ones that aren't working for you.

所以你可以，而且在这个时间段内，你可以重新调整。

So you can and then within that timeframe, you can reflex.

换句话说，当你花完了承诺的钱，你可以按之前和Crowdstrike谈好的价格直接续费。

In other words, when you spend all the money that you had committed, you can just re up at the same rates that you've negotiated with Crowdstrike.

所以这确实能加快采用速度。

So that really does allow for faster adoption.

它让你不用等，比如说你是个企业，看到Mythos这个事件，你害怕了，你想试试一些东西来保护自己，而以前你可能要等到合同到期或者什么的。

It allows for rather than waiting for let's say that you're a business and you see this mythos moment, you're scared, you're you're wanting to try some things to protect yourself, Whereas before you might needed to wait till your contract was up or that whole thing.

现在你可以直接调整，尝试一些新东西。

Now you can just reflex and you can experiment with things.

所以管理层指出，新客户如果采用灵活计费模式，那是他们作为新客户必须选择的。

So management pointing out that new customers who are entering by the flex business model billing method, that's the one that they have to choose if they're a new customer.

从一开始，年度经常性收入就有显著增长。

There's a significant uptake in the annualized recurring revenue right from the get go.

所以也许这更多是计费方面的事情，Mythos 向我们展示了为什么这是一种对客户计费的好方式，至少对 Crowdstrike 来说是这样，但长期来看，这对 Crowdstrike 和它的客户是否都好，我们拭目以待。

So maybe this is more of a billing thing that Mythos is showing us why this is such a good way to bill its customers, at least if you're Crowdstrike, but we'll see if that is actually great for both Crowdstrike and its customers long term.

关于 AI，一个更有趣的事情是它正在改变很多软件公司的计费或收费方式。

One of the more interesting things about AI actually is the way that it's changing the way a lot of software companies bill or charge how they're doing.

你知道，我们之前有软件订阅模式，但现在甚至开始转向按使用量计费，就像我们看到的 AI 的 token 使用量一样。

You know, we had this software as a subscription model, but now it's even starting to go almost like on a usage basis, similar to what we're seeing with like token usage with AI.

谁知道呢？

So who knows?

也许 AI 最大的创新之一就是为这些公司带来的新的计费流程。

Maybe one of the biggest innovations with AI is new billing processes here for for these companies.

Crowdstrike 是另一家备受青睐的公司。

Crowdstrike is another one of these darling companies.

它为投资者带来了惊人的回报。

It's done incredible for investors.

过去一年上涨了大约114%。

It's up, like, a 114% over the past year.

有很多 Motley Fool 的会员推荐了 Crowdstrike，他们表现都很好。

I there's plenty of Motley Fool members who've had recommendations on Crowdstrike who've done very well.

但我想在这里为投资者把话说清楚，因为又一个出色的季度，看起来这种势头还在继续。

But this is like I I wanna put the rubber to the road here for investors because another great quarter, it it seems to continue.

而这里的核心挑战在于，股价是销售额的30倍，抱歉，是37倍。

And this is the crux of the challenge here is shares trade for 30 times, 37, excuse me, times sales.

这意味着，按照目前的水平，公司需要37年才能产生相当于其市值的收入。

That means right now it would take thirty seven years for the company to generate its market cap and revenue.

当然，这是假设收入保持不变，预期是会增长的，但这仍然非常惊人。

Now granted that's if revenue stayed flat, the expectation is would grow, but that's still huge.

这就像是在互联网泡沫时期讨论太阳微系统公司一样，他们当时说，这不是我们的盈利。

I this was like a a discussion during the .com bubble with, like, Sun Microsystems where they're like, this isn't our earnings.

这是我们还没扣除任何费用之前的销售额。

This is our sales before we have to actually deduct anything right now.

所以这就是Crowdstrike一直以来的情况。

So this has been the the story with Crowdstrike.

就是说，这是一家很棒的公司。

It's like, it's a great business.

它增长很快，但估值高得离谱。

It's growing a lot, but the valuation is crazy.

那么，基于现在的估值，以及你们从财报中读到的和看到的一切，这只股票现在真的值得买入吗？

So with this valuation today and everything you guys read from the earnings report and what you saw, is this stock an actual buy now?

如果不值得，那有没有其他选择，不一定非得是网络安全，但可能类似于你们所说的Crowdstrike的周边领域，如果你们觉得这个价格实在太贵的话，投资者应该考虑那些领域呢？

And if not, is there something within it doesn't have to be cyber security, but maybe like the Venn diagram of what you could call, you know, Crowdstrike's tangential areas, where investors should consider instead if you think that this thing is just way too expensive.

嗯，Tyler，你提到了估值的问题。

Well, mean, Tyler, you're calling out valuation.

我得说，我以前确实因为估值问题卖过股票，纯粹是因为估值。

I will say that I have sold stocks in the past based solely on valuation concerns, solely on valuation concerns.

但每次我这么做，事后都后悔了。因为一般来说，当业务很好、市场很好、一切都很好，只是估值高的时候，单凭这一点卖出，对我来说总是错的。

And every single time I have done that, I've lived to regret it in hindsight because generally speaking, when the business is great, the market is great, everything is great except for the valuation, Selling on that basis alone, it's always been wrong for me.

所以我现在更倾向于避免这样做。

And so I tend to stay away from that more now.

我确实会卖出那些表现不佳的业务，或者我认为面临长期威胁的行业。

I I really do try to sell businesses that are performing poorly or industries that I believe are under long term threat.

我更愿意把这作为我的决定因素。

I'd let that be more my deciding factor.

如果说有哪家公司，你不应该完全忽视估值，但应该把估值从你的担忧清单上往后放，我觉得Crowdstrike就是其中之一，因为它已经展示了随着时间的推移，其业务复合增长的能力。

If ever there was a company to not ignore the valuation entirely, but to push it way down your concerns list, I think Crowdstrike is one of them, because it has demonstrated such an ability to compound its business over time.

而且我想不出比网络安全更重要的长期行业了，这个行业增长得非常非常好。

And I can't think of maybe a more important long term industry than cybersecurity, one that's growing very, very nicely.

所以Crowdstrike就是这样的公司，如果你唯一的担忧是估值，我会建议你先放一放，因为它确实是一个非凡的业务和行业。

And so Crowdstrike is one that if if your only concern is valuation, I I'd hit pause on that because it really is a phenomenal business and industry.

不过我得说，如果你担心这里的估值，但又想留在同一个大领域里，它不是直接的竞争对手，但我会提一下Rubrik，RBRK。

I will say though, if you are concerned about the valuation here, but wanna stay in the same general area, it's not a direct competitor, but I would just point out Rubrik, RBRK.

这是一家网络安全公司，但不是Crowdstrike的直接竞争对手。

This is a cybersecurity company, but not a direct competitor to Crowdstrike.

它的交易价格只有销售额的14倍。

Trades in only 14 times sales.

那大约是估值的三分之一，而且它的增长速度比Crowdstrike还快。

That's about a third of the valuation and yet it is growing faster than Crowdstrike.

所以我觉得这个值得关注。

So I think that is something to look at.

它确实能产生自由现金流。

It does generate free cash flow.

它的资产负债表也相当不错。

It's got a pretty good, balance sheet.

所以这个我会考虑看看。

So that would be one I'd look at.

对。

Yeah.

所以我要稍微反驳一下。

So I'm gonna push back a little bit.

如果疫情时代的SPAC泡沫和那些高增长科技股的狂热教会了我什么，那就是估值总是至少有点重要。

So if the pandemic era SPAC bubble and the bubbling high growth tech stocks taught me anything, It's that valuation always matters at least a little bit.

所以，我的意思是，和乔恩刚才说的相反，有几只股票我后悔在那个时代因为荒谬的估值没有卖掉。

So, I mean, contrary to what Jon just said, there are several stocks that I regret not selling on ridiculous valuations during that era.

我的意思是，Crowdstrike，就为了把数字放在视角里，Crowdstrike，他们之前目标是长期20%的收入增长，就像永远那样。

I mean, Crowdstrike, just to kinda put the numbers in perspective, Crowdstrike, they previously targeted 20% long term revenue growth, like, in perpetuity.

而在当前的估值下，那告诉我们这只股票的交易价格大约是它十年后收入的七倍。

And at the current valuation, that tells us that the stock trades for about seven times the revenue it will generate in a decade from now.

所以一方面，增长在加速，你说得对，在这个规模上很少见。

So on on one hand, growth is accelerating, which you're right, is rare at this scale.

未来的业务订单比当前收入增长得更快。

The the forward book of business is growing faster than current revenue.

这意味着短期内会有加速增长。

That implies acceleration in the near term.

而且关于AI网络安全的这个观点，我是完全相信的。

And that AI cybersecurity thesis, it's some one that I completely believe in.

但这里的数字算下来确实很残酷。

But the math here is brutal.

就算假设Crowdstrike的营收在未来五年内翻三倍，我觉得这已经很勉强了，按现在的股价，公司仍然要卖到销售额的12倍。

Even if, let's say, Crowdstrike's revenue were to triple over the next five years, which I think would be a stretch, the company would still be at about 12 times sales at the current price.

所以这里有很多让人不满意的地方，我知道Tyler会同意我的看法。

So there there's a lot not to like here, and I know Tyler's gonna be with me on this one.

他们的股票补偿规模大到足以完全抵消我们刚才提到的营业收入。

Their stock based comp is massive enough to completely wipe out that operating income that we talked about.

而且公司实际上按GAAP标准报告的是营业亏损。

And and it was it the company actually reports an operating loss on a GAAP basis.

他们的稀释后股数在过去一年里增长了近5%。

Their diluted share count grew by almost 5% over the past year.

这还是在有一些回购来抵消之后的情况。

That's even after some buybacks to help offset it.

而且我预计未来还会保持类似的增速。

And I would expect a similar rate going forward.

尽管他们是行业领导者，但并不是没有竞争对手。

Even though they're a leader, they're not without competition.

所以，借用一句我很喜欢的巴菲特名言，Crowdstrike 现在是一家好公司，但价格让人不舒服。

So to kind of modify a Warren Buffett quote that I love, Crowdstrike is a wonderful business at an uncomfortable price right now.

我今天不会在这里建新仓。

I I wouldn't start a new position here today.

如果你真的想买，那绝对是分批定投建仓的好案例。

If you absolutely want to, it's definitely a a great case for dollar cost averaging into a position.

但作为替代选择，我最近买了 ZScaler。

But as an alternative, I recently bought ZScaler.

他们和 Crowdstrike 有合作，也有很多相同的利好因素，但现在的估值要合理得多。

They partner with Crowdstrike, lot of the same tailwinds, but a much more palatable valuation right now.

股票补偿这个问题，不只是Crowdstrike一家公司的事。

The stock based compensation and this is not just a Crowdstrike thing.

在评估企业时，我一直觉得很难处理的是，当股票补偿多到把盈利或营业利润都抵消掉的时候。

It is something that I have always struggled with when when it comes to evaluating businesses is when there is that much stock based compensation that wipes out earnings or operating profits in that way.

这样的话，长期来看很难判断这家公司是否成功，因为很大一部分收益都给了员工，而不是股东。

It's it's hard to assess the success of this business over the long term because so much of it is going to the employees rather than the shareholders.

所以这确实是个值得关注的故事。

So it will be a story worth following.

我的意思是，估值这么高，我知道投资者长期肯定会考虑这个问题。

I mean, with a with a valuation this high, I'm I know that investors are going to be thinking about that over the long term.

休息之后，我们会来看一些和AI相关的听众来信。

Coming up after the break, we're gonna dip into the mailbag specifically related to AI.

大家好。

Hey, everyone.

快速提醒一下。

Quick reminder.

如果你想给我们提问，并且希望你的问题在节目中被读到，请发邮件到podcastsatfool.com。

If you wanna get a question into us and have it read on air, email us @podcastsatfool.com.

就是podcast，后面加个s。

That's podcast with an s.

我也把邮箱放在了节目简介里，你也可以在那里找到。

I've also put the email in the show description so you can get it there as well.

记住，问题要简短，要有愚人精神，而且我们不能提供个人建议。

Remember, keep it short, keep it foolish, and we cannot give personal advice.

今天的问题来自新泽西的乔恩。

So today's question comes from Jon from New Jersey.

问题是，我们多次讨论过投资数据中心是否值得。

And the question is, we have had multiple discussions about whether or not the money invested in data centers will be worth it.

我们确实是这样讨论的，这个评价很中肯。

And that's a very fair assessment of what we've done here.

数据中心面临的一个威胁是，许多新模型可以在本地运行。

One of the threats to data centers is the idea that many of the new models can be run locally.

不一定像Claude和OpenAI那样，但我们现在看到的很多中国模型。

Not necessarily like Claude and OpenAI, but a lot of the, Chinese models that we're seeing these days.

这些模型的一大优势是，你公司的所有数据都会留在本地，不会被发送到其他公司，可能被转卖。

One big advantage of these models is that all of your company's data will remain local and will not be sent to another company to possibly be sold on.

苹果新发布的电脑，个人电脑，比如新的Mac mini，实际上就是为了在本地运行AI而设计的。

The newly announced Apple computers, personal computers, think is the new Mac mini, are actually designed to run AI locally.

这就回到了Jon的问题，本地使用AI对真正的AI云公司威胁有多大？

This gets to Jon's question, how much of a threat is local use of AI to the actual AI cloud companies?

我太喜欢这个问题了，简直没法形容。

I love I can't tell you how much I love this question.

我觉得我已经做了好几个月的本地AI倡导者，一直是我一个人。

I feel like I've been a local AI crusader for months now, and I've been all by myself.

现在，来自新泽西的Jon和我站在一起了。

And so now, Jon from New Jersey is standing with me.

我们Jon们得团结一致。

We Jon's gotta stick together.

所以我很感谢能聊聊本地AI。

So I'm really thankful to talk local AI.

简单说，苹果Mini系列产品其实已经在用于本地AI了，而苹果也在下一代产品中继续往这个方向发力。

Just briefly, I mean, products, Apple Mini products in particular have already been being used for local AI and Apple kind of leaning into that with its next generation.

不过让我直接回答这个问题。

But let me answer this question directly.

我不认为本地AI对云AI行业构成威胁。

I don't think that local AI is a threat to the cloud AI industry.

我觉得它们是不同的使用场景。

I think that they're they're different use cases.

我觉得越来越多的人，个人用户，会想要运行一些本地AI。

I think that more and more people, individuals are going to want to run some local AI.

所以，在我自己的设备上、在我家里运行一个为我量身定制的模型，我觉得这会是一个增长趋势。

So running a a model that is personalized to me on my stuff, in my home, I think that's gonna be a growing trend.

这里面有很多值得探讨的地方。

There's a lot to unpack with that.

还有很多需要学习如何组织这些内容。

There's still a lot of learning how to structure it.

很多人都在努力解决这个问题。

A lot of people out there are trying to solve for this.

但除了个人，我认为医院、学校、政府机构，他们都会出于明显的原因，越来越多地运行本地AI。

But beyond individuals, I think that hospitals, schools, government agencies, they're all going to want to run more and more local AI for obvious reasons.

他们不会想把所有数据都放在云端。

They're not gonna want all that stuff in the cloud.

然而，我确实认为未来云AI仍有其用武之地，因为很多创新都会在那里发生。

And yet, I do think that there's still a use case for Cloud AI in the future because that's where a lot of the innovation's gonna be happening.

在自己的硬件上运行自己的东西，这确实面临一些挑战。

A lot of running your own stuff on your own hardware, there there are challenges to that.

我认为SpaceX的新Grok机器人确实让它变得更易用，可能会推动采用率的增长。

I think that SpaceX's new Grok bot really is bringing it making it more usable, perhaps driving an adoption curve.

所以一定要关注这个。

So definitely watch that.

但我还是觉得会有创新发生，有些事情你确实需要云端AI来处理。

But I still think there's gonna be innovation happening and things that you're going to need a cloud AI for.

所以我觉得未来两者都会存在。

And so I I think it's gonna be both in the future.

我觉得我们已经投入了那么多钱到数据中心和那些基础设施上。

I think that we already have so much money being spent going into the data centers, going into those.

但我觉得在那之上还会有一层，就是你自己家里的本地AI。

But I think there's gonna be a layer on top of that, which is your own local AI at home.

或者是在你的工作场所、你的公司、你的学校，等等。

So or or in your place of work, place of business, your school, whatever.

所以我觉得未来两者都会有，我不认为这是二选一的问题。

So I I think it's gonna be both in the future, so I don't see this as a either or.

对。

Yeah.

我大体上同意Jon的看法。

I I generally agree with Jon.

在AI领域，这真的是水涨船高。

It's really a case of a rising tide lifts all ships here when it comes to AI.

数据中心和端侧AI是两种完全不同的解决方案，解决的是两种完全不同的问题。

Data centers and and on device AI are are two totally different things to solve, two totally different problems.

而且，数据中心有几个关键优势，能帮助它们继续增长。

Plus, I mean, data centers have a few key advantages that are gonna help them continue to grow.

我们这期节目已经多次提到内存问题了。

We've already mentioned the memory problem several times in this episode.

AI热潮让本地AI的内存价格贵了很多，这只是其中一个例子。

The AI boom has made memory for local AI more much more expensive, just to name one thing.

所以数据中心运营商在内存价格战中有更大的胜算。

So data centers, their operators have a lot more room to win the memory price wars.

他们更有钱。

They have more money.

如果你投资数千亿美元，他们付得更多。

They pay more if you're investing hundreds of billions of dollars.

你会得到优先权。

You get priority.

你知道，本地推理受限于内存容量，而不是原始计算能力。

You know, local inference, it's it's bound by memory capacity, not by raw compute power.

这不是这里的限制因素。

That's not the constraint here.

所以这是一个很大的挑战。

So that is a big challenge.

但虽然本地AI对云端AI构不成太大威胁，但结合我们之前的讨论，我认为它可能是网络安全领域有史以来最好的事情之一。

But while local AI is not much of a threat to cloud based AI, to tie it into our earlier discussion, I do think it could be one of the best things that ever happened to cybersecurity.

所以，你想想看。

So, I mean, think about it.

如果你所有员工的本地设备都在运行自己的AI模型，那么在企业网络内就会有成千上万个新的AI端点需要你去保护。

If if all of your employees' local devices are running their own AI models, there will be thousands of new AI endpoints that you need to secure inside enterprise networks.

所以这肯定能帮助像Crowdstrike和ZScaler这样的公司未来发展，这正好呼应了我们之前说的。

So definitely could help companies like Crowdstrike and ZScaler going forward, just to kinda tie it into what we were saying earlier.

这里有个真正的讽刺：整个2010年代，大家都在往云端迁移，每个企业都想搬到云上。

There's a real irony here of the entire twenty tens was the whole movement of migration to the cloud, cloud, and every single business wanted to migrate to the cloud.

而现在我们却在讨论把所有东西搬回本地服务器、本地硬件，把数据留在自己手里。

And now we're talking about everything going back on to local servers, local hardware, and keeping your own stuff in house.

一切似乎又回到了原点。

Everything seems to come full circle.

好了，各位，今天的时间就到这里。

Well, guys, that's all the time we have for today.

和往常一样，节目中的人可能会提到他们持有的股票，而The Motley Fool也可能有正式的推荐或反对意见。

As always, people in the program may have stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以不要仅仅根据你听到的内容就买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容都遵循Motley Fool的编辑标准，并且未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告或赞助内容仅供参考。

Advertisements or sponsored content provide for informational purposes only.

要查看完整的广告披露信息，请查看我们的节目说明。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢我们的制作人丹·博伊德以及Motley Fool团队的其他成员。

Thanks to our producer Dan Boyd and the rest of the Motley Fool team.

乔恩、马特和我，感谢大家的收听，我们很快再聊。

For Jon, Matt, and myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.