Palantir 对前沿AI提出质疑

Palantir 今天在 Motley Fool 的隐藏宝石投资节目上，对 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 进行了抨击。

Palantir takes shots at OpenAI and Anthropic today on Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

欢迎收听 Motley Fool 的隐藏宝石投资节目。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是主持人 Crowe。

I'm your host, Crowe.

今天和我一起的是两位资深 Fool 成员，Lou Whiteman 和 Travis Hoium，我们稍微换了个组合。

And today, I'm joined by longtime fools, Lou Whiteman and Travis Hoium, doing a little bit of mixing it up.

你知道，大家都赶在孩子开学前，抓紧最后的时间享受夏日假期。

You know, everyone's getting those last minute summer vacations in before the kids gotta go back to school.

所以接下来几周，我们可能会看到很多主持人轮换和嘉宾轮换。

So we'll we'll probably see a lot of, hosts shuffling and guests shuffling over the next couple of weeks.

现在正值财报季高峰，今天我们收到了三份非常重要的财报。

So we are deep in earning season, and we had three really big earnings reports today.

市场上有很多截然不同的情况在同时发生。

A lot of kind of contrasting things going on in the market.

今天我们先从Palantir说起，因为在我们录制的时候，股价已经涨了26%。

And we wanna start today with Palantir because as we're recording, shares are up 26%.

这家公司昨天收盘后发布的财报轻松超出了预期。

The company reported earnings after the close yesterday that beat expectations handily.

他们还上调了业绩指引。

They were increased guidance.

整体看起来相当不错。

Everything looked pretty good.

这个财报季已经有不少公司业绩超预期了，但说实话，我还没见过哪家像Palantir这样让市场如此兴奋的。

Now there's been a lot of beat expectation earnings so far this season, guys, but I have yet to see one that's really resulted in the market celebrating, like we have seen with this one.

那么Palantir的财报到底有什么特别之处呢？

So what exactly was it about Palantir's earnings?

他们简直是表现得太出色了。

They just blew it out of the park.

这业绩真是棒极了。

They're just fantastic results.

我是说，你知道，这家公司确实有点

I mean, you know, this is a company with a

狂妄，但有时候这种狂妄是有道理的。

lot of hubris, and sometimes the hubris is justified.

营收同比增长93%，如果看过去十二个月，增长79%，所以这并非偶然，现金流利润率51%。

93% year over year top line growth, if you want to look trailing twelve months, 79% growth, just kind of so this isn't an anomaly, 51% cash flow margins.

这太棒了。

That's fantastic.

一直以来，问题在于，如果它只是一家国防承包商，你根本没法证明这个估值的合理性。

The question forever here has been, there's no way you can justify the valuation here if it's a defense contractor.

就算我们拿五角大楼的预算开玩笑，五角大楼花钱的速度也根本撑不起Palantir的估值。

They for all our jokes about the Pentagon budget, the Pentagon just doesn't spend money at the rate needed to justify Palantir's valuation.

商业业务之前一直拖后腿，但现在商业业务增长了150%。

Commercial had been the laggard, but commercial was up a 150%.

这正是你想要的。

This is exactly what you want.

Travis，我很好奇你怎么看。

I can Travis, I'm curious what you think.

我大概能看出来，剩余履约义务是持平的。

I can sort of squint and maybe see remaining performance obligations were flat.

所以这可能是个小问题，但即便如此，商业和政府业务还是不一样的。

So maybe maybe that might be a dent, but even then, that could be, you know, commercial's different than government.

所以那可能是个调整项，但我不确定。

So that could be adjustment, but I don't know.

你说说，这里有什么问题？

Like, tell me what's wrong here.

这简直太棒了。

This is this is just fantastic.

对。

Yeah.

这些数字确实很难挑出毛病。

It's hard to quibble with any of the numbers.

对我来说，要理解一家市盈率高达60倍的公司总是很难，因为过去一年左右它的市盈率甚至超过100倍。

It it is always harder for me to wrap my head around a company that's trading for 60 times sales because and it's been over a 100 times sales in the past year or so.

这种情况通常对投资者来说结局不太好。

That typically does not well end well for investors.

但如果你的收入能连续多年保持每年翻倍增长，那这个倍数很快就会降下来。

But if you compound your revenue at a 100% year over year for multiple years, it takes that multiple down pretty quickly.

所以我们看到的一部分情况是，他们确实在兑现市场长期以来一直定价的预期。

So that's part of what we're seeing is just they are executing on exactly what the market has been pricing in for quite a while.

随着过去几个月股价回调，有些人可能会想，也许我们会看到一些放缓，然后他们却说，你知道吗？

As the shares have pulled back over the past few months, there's some of that, you know, may maybe we are gonna see a little bit of a slowdown and then they went, you know what?

不。

Nope.

我们反而要加速收入增长。

We're gonna we're gonna accelerate that revenue growth.

所以真的没什么好挑剔的。

So hard to quibble with anything.

卢说，最让我震惊的数字是美国商业收入增长了150%，而客户数量并没有增长那么快。

You know, Lou said the biggest number that jumped out to me, it's a 150% jump in US commercial revenue, and customers aren't growing that quickly.

所以这意味着他们现有的客户在花更多钱，这很厉害，因为这说明客户不只是试用一下然后说‘不，我们没看到任何价值’。

So that means that the customers they do have are spending more and that's impressive because it shows that they're not just testing it out and going, nah, we're not seeing any value here.

他们实际上在说，‘你知道吗，我们想要更多你们的东西。’

They're actually saying, you know what, we want we want more from you guys.

我觉得可以说，Palantir的CEO亚历克斯·卡普对投资者来说是个需要慢慢适应的角色。

I think it's fair to say that CEO of Palantir, Alex Karp, is a bit of an acquired taste for investors.

有些人非常喜欢他，有些人可能觉得他说话夸张，有点让人不舒服，比市场上很多其他CEO更激进、更好斗。

Some people absolutely love him, some people might find him a bit off putting with bombastic language, sometimes a little bit more aggressive and combative than a lot of other CEOs that you see in the market.

你在他的股东信里能看到这一点。

You see it in his shareholder letters.

你在电话会议上也能看到。

You see it on the conference call.

而且，他在谈到像OpenAI和Anthropic这样的大语言模型开发者时，也确实用了那种比较激进的语言。

And, you know, he did use that kind of aggressive language a little bit when talking about the large language model developers like OpenAI and Anthropic.

但我觉得他确实说到了一个核心点，一个我认为很多公司都会认真思考、并且可能决定近期AI竞赛走向的问题。

But I think he did get at a core point, that he was talking about, and and something that I think companies are really gonna be thinking about and could really determine a lot of what happens in this AI race lately.

那就是构建与模型无关的AI工具，就像Palantir做的那样，而不是像OpenAI和Anthropic那样，最终在某种程度上，利用客户自己的数据，反过来打造与客户竞争的工具。

And it's the building model agnostic AI tools, similar to what, Palantir does, versus these models that, OpenAI and Anthropic are doing that end up, you know, in some sense, building competing tools from their own customers after they've, you know, built a lot of their own data.

所以我有个疑问：他说得对吗？Palantir未来真的能靠这个论点站稳脚跟吗？他们可以说：‘嘿，你们难道想让OpenAI和Anthropic拿走你们的数据，然后利用这些数据打造出你们的竞争对手吗？’

And so I I one of the questions I have is, does he have a point, and does that really, bode well for the future of Palantir where they can make this argument that says, hey, do you not want OpenAI and Anthropic taking your data and building your own competitor while you feed them their data?

来找我们吧。

Come to us.

这到底是个有效的销售说辞，还是只是在防御？

Is that is that a valid, like, sales argument, or is that just being defensive?

嗯，两者都有。

Well, it's all of the above.

这确实是他们的销售策略。

It's it's their sales argument.

他只是在推销自己的立场。

He's talking his book.

他是在推销他们的商业模式。

He's talking their business model.

他是在向客户推销。

And he's trying to sell to customers.

微软的萨提亚·纳德拉也有类似的做法。

And you see similar things from Satya Nadella at Microsoft.

但他谈到这一点的方式，我想引用股东信里的话。

But the way that he's talking about this, I just wanna quote from the shareholder letter.

这些模型通过吸收我们文明的全部书面成果而成长壮大，现在这些模型及其创造者将目光投向了全球产业。

The models have grown and thrived by essentially ingesting the entire written work product of our civilization and those models, as well as their creators now have their sights set on the on global industry.

我们受益于一场正在进行的反抗，反抗这种工作方式的屈服，引用结束。

We have been the beneficiary of the revolt that is underway against submission of the of this way of working, end quote.

这基本上就是在向Anthropic和OpenAI宣战。

That is basically declaring war against Anthropic and OpenAI.

这就是卡普在这里做的事情。

That is what Karp is doing here.

看到这些商业模式如何展开真的很有意思，因为每个人都在努力赢得这场AI竞赛。

And it's fascinating to see these business models play out because this is everybody is trying to win this AI game.

这就是我们需要关注的地方。

That's what we've gotta watch.

到底谁能真正赢得客户？

Who is actually going to get the customers?

谁能获得收入？

Who's gonna get the revenue?

谁能产生自由现金流？

Who's gonna generate free cash flow?

Palantir正在表明自己的立场，而且他们的理由相当充分。

Palantir is making their case and they're making a pretty good one.

你总能看出哪些CEO是古典文学专业毕业的，对吧？

You can always tell the CEOs who are classics majors, can't you?

像那种话，是的。

Stuff like that, yeah.

你看，有一种解读是，他担心那些模型能做到Palantir能做的事，这其实是一种示弱的表现。

Look, you know, one read on this is he's worried that those models can do what Palantir can do, and this is actually a sign of weakness.

我不确定是不是这样。

I don't know if that's the case.

我觉得两种说法都有道理，前沿模型要么能增强Palantir，要么就是它的威胁。

I think you can make the case either way that the Frontier models strengthen Palantir or they are a threat.

不过让我在意的是，我们知道Palantir的估值，也知道Anthropic和OpenAI期望达到什么水平，它们能共存吗？

The thing that strikes me though is we know Palantir's valuation, we know what Anthropic hopes to get and what OpenAI, can they all exist together?

这是零和游戏，还是连整个市场都不够分？

Is there a zero sum game here or a less than whole game?

我觉得总有一方会先退缩，而Palantir凭借它的现有客户基础，可能确实有优势。

I feel like at some point something has to flinch and Palantir does have the advantage, I guess, with with their installed base.

对。

Yeah.

而且说到这一点，Travis，你提到和Satya Nadella聊过竞争模型之类的话题。

And to that point too, Travis, you're talking to Satya Nadella talking about, you know, competing models and and a lot of this.

他之前在讨论、电话会议之类的场合提到过一点，基本上就是，要根据你需要的任务来定制模型，而不是用那些最强大、最贵的通用模型去干些小事，比如整理日历什么的，那纯粹是浪费资源。

One of the things that he had mentioned in previous discussions, conference calls, whatever, is basically, you know, custom tailoring the type of model that you need and kind of custom fit to what the actual particular task is, where we're using these generic most powerful models in the world that cost a ton of money to, I don't know, organize your calendar isn't exactly like the best use of of resources and stuff like that.

所以，看看资源怎么分配会很有意思。我觉得这可能就是它们都能共存的原因，因为每家公司都能找到适合自己的资源分配方式。

So it'll be interesting to see kind of the re the resource allocation, and I think that might be where this they all sort of make sense because they can fit a certain resource allocation for a business.

你明白吗？

You know?

也许我们更便宜，但不去接那些最复杂的任务，这就是这个世界的运作方式——大家各司其职，而不是只有一家公司在AI竞赛里赢家通吃。

Maybe we're a less expensive, but we don't take on the biggest tasks sort of thing, and that's how this kind of works in a in a world where everyone works in some way or another versus, you know, having only one winner in this open eye race.

不过说到OpenAI，我们接下来要聊一家卖铲子的公司，它做得非常出色。

But speaking about OpenAI, we're gonna talk about one of the picks and shovels companies that's doing spectacularly well.

那就是卡特彼勒，广告之后见。

That's Caterpillar after break.

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接下来聊聊其他最近发布财报且表现非常出色的公司，比如卡特彼勒。

Moving on to other companies that are reporting earning earnings recently and doing incredibly well, it was Caterpillar.

今天早些时候，卡特彼勒公布了上一季度远超预期的业绩，受此消息影响，股价上涨了约5.6%。

Earlier today, Caterpillar reposted expectation smashing results this past quarter, and the stock is up about 5.6 on the news as a result.

早盘时涨幅一度接近10%，所以这次财报确实有不少亮点。

It was up almost 10% in early morning trading, so there was a lot to like here.

我仔细看了看。

So I was looking through it.

所有业务部门的盈利都在增长，看起来一切都在非常顺利地发展。

Earnings across all of its segments were up, so it looks like everything's doing incredibly well.

这些都是推动因素吗？

Was that all the driving force?

各位，我第一遍看的时候可能漏掉了哪些其他东西？

What were some of the other things I might have missed when I did my first class, guys?

我觉得重点在于，当你花一万亿美元建设数据中心时，需求是巨大的，大家都能分到一杯羹。

Well, I think the big thing here is that when you're spending a trillion dollars on building out data centers, there's a lot of demand to go around.

所以我

So I

不知道卡特彼勒是AI投资的第二层衍生还是第三层衍生，但它绝对受益于这些大规模支出，因为那些基础设施需要大量实体建设，而这正是卡特彼勒的强项。

don't know if Caterpillar is the second derivative of the AI trade or the third derivative, but it is definitely downstream of all that spending that's going on because that infrastructure is a lot of physical stuff being built and that's what Caterpillar does.

我是说，最突出的是建筑设备业务同比增长了35%，而电力、能源和资源板块也表现不错。

I mean, the big thing that it was construction equipment that was up 35% from a year ago, but power energy energy and resources also did well.

疯狂的是，你可以把这看作一个整体趋势，因为这些其实都是相互关联的。

The crazy thing is you can think about this all as one big trait because these are all sort of related things.

能源板块表现这么好，正是因为AI发展得这么好。

The fact that energy is doing so well is because AI is doing so well.

所以，Lou，除了这一切就像一股巨大的涨潮，托起了卡特彼勒所有的船之外，我真不知道还能从中得出什么结论。

So I I don't know what to take from this Lou besides the fact that just all this is like a huge rising tide that's lifting all of Caterpillar's boats.

我觉得就是这样。

I think that's it.

我们来聊聊原因。

And let's talk about why.

因为显然，你不会为每个数据中心都买一台全新的推土机。

Because obviously, you don't buy a new dirt mover for each dirt data center.

对吧？

Right?

你不会说，好吧。

You don't like, alright.

每建一个数据中心，我们就买全套新设备。

Well, for every one of these things, we're gonna buy all new equipment.

但这跟约翰迪尔和农民的情况很像。

But it's a lot like with John Deere with the farmers.

我们通常看到，农业丰收年时支出会增加，因为农民手里有钱，这时候他们才买得起。

We tend to see spending go up when it's a good year on the farm, because the farmers are flush with cash, it's when they can.

同样地，面对这么多需求和订单，卡特彼勒的客户们信心十足，愿意下单投资自己的业务。

Similarly, with all of this demand, all these orders, this is causing the customers of Caterpillar to feel confident enough to place orders, to invest in their business.

我觉得这就是建筑业表现强劲的原因。

I think that's why you see the strength in construction.

不光是电力系统那块。

It wasn't just in the power systems.

也不是单一因素。

It wasn't just one thing.

这其实就是所有这些资金和投资涌入他们服务的行业，最终体现为订购重型设备的信心。

This is just the net impact of all of this cash, all of this investment going into the sector that they serve, kind of showing itself in confidence to order heavy equipment.

他们上调了全年业绩指引，设备积压订单也创了纪录。

They boosted their full year guidance and they had a record equipment backlog.

卡特彼勒的积压订单一直是个值得关注的指标，因为行情好的时候订单会很多，然后就看这股势头能持续多久。

The backlog is sort of with CAT always something to watch because again, you get a lot of orders when things are good and then you see how long it lasts.

但假设我们不会停止建设数据中心，那这本质上就是在给这个行业注入资金，企业有钱的时候自然会投资自己的业务。

But assuming that we don't stop building data centers, this is again, just filling the industry they serve with cash, and you are going to see companies invest in their businesses when they can.

感觉我们一直在绕来绕去，其实大家都心知肚明，卡特彼勒是个周期性行业。

So something it seems like we're kind of dancing around here, and we all kind of know it is that Caterpillar is a cyclical business.

矿业表现很好，订单就上去了，但它的所有终端市场都高度周期性。

Mining's doing really well, orders go up, but these are all all of its end markets are very cyclical.

电力、建筑，所有这些领域都是。

Power, construction, all of these things.

我的问题是，显然人工智能是这个周期里很重要的一部分。

My question is is we've obviously, AI is a big part of that cycle.

当然，还有其他一些因素也在起作用。

We're also there's some other aspects as well.

我们在节目开始前聊过，关于去全球化，还有关键矿产开采越来越本地化，不再由全球主导。在全球化时代通常不会出现这种情况，但未来可能会看到更多冗余的建筑材料供应，因为大家都想自己开采自己的资源，诸如此类。

We were talking before the show, the idea of deglobalization and, like, critical mineral mining where it's being more localized and not dominated on a global scale, where you might see a lot of not typically wouldn't normally happen in a globalized world, but you're gonna have a little bit more like redundant supply of construction materials because everyone wants to mine their own stuff and stuff like that.

我不确定这个趋势有多大，但它肯定在发挥作用。

It's I don't know how big that is, but it's certainly something to be playing the part here.

所以我的问题是，我们知道这是周期性的，但这次会不会只是一个被拉长的周期呢？

So my question is, is we know it's cyclical, but could this just be an elongated cycle?

因为通常卡特彼勒的情况是，某个板块表现不错，但其他终端市场会相对疲软。

Because it seems like normally with Caterpillar, one segment's doing relatively well, whether its other egg, end markets are kinda weaker.

但现在，我们正处于三个板块都交出漂亮成绩单的阶段。

But right now, we're in a point where all three segments are posting great results.

对。

Right.

你看，这就是投资难的地方。

And look, this is why investing is hard.

有些东西看起来很明显，但想踩准时机可没那么容易。

We can see something that looks obvious, but good luck getting the timing right.

对吧？

Right?

我是说，我们是不是该提一下，或者问问，今天早上有人关注迈克尔·伯里吗？

I mean, we should do a shout out or maybe a chill and is anyone checking in on Michael Burry this morning?

因为我完全同意他说的——市场整体估值过高，但他做空最狠的两只股票是Palantir和卡特彼勒。

Because I agree with everything he's been saying about how it's all overvalued, but two of his biggest shorts were Palantir and Caterpillar.

所以说，时机就是一切。

So the timing is everything.

现在的卡特彼勒感觉就像是整个市场的一个缩影。

Caterpillar right now feels like a microcosm for the entire market.

它是周期性的。

It's cyclical.

一年内涨了100%。

It's up a 100% in a year.

所有迹象都在说‘不妙’。

All of the signs are saying yikes.

而且，对，它还是一直在涨。

And, yeah, it keeps working anyway.

所以它会一直涨，直到某天突然不涨了。

So it it will until it won't.

这就是投资难的地方。

And that's what makes investing hard.

对。

Yeah.

我想到的一个词是‘超级周期’，而这只是那个超级周期的一部分。

The word that comes to mind is super cycle and this is just part of that super cycle.

那些硅谷巨头流出的资金，都流向了像卡特彼勒这样的公司。

All of that money that's flowing from those giant Silicon Valley companies is is flowing to companies like Caterpillar.

问题是，它什么时候会停止？或者哪怕只是放缓？

And the question is when does it stop Or when does it even slow down?

我一直在想的是，只要这些数据中心的资本支出在增长，只要对电力和矿产的需求还在增加，所有这些都会表现非常好。

That's, you know, something that I've been thinking a lot about is, you know, as long as CapEx is growing for these data centers, as long as there's more demand for power, more demand for minerals, all of these things are going to to do extremely well.

但如果增长停滞，或者更糟，出现下滑，那会怎么样？

But what happens when growth flatlines or heaven forbid falls?

到那时，为卡特彼勒这样的公司支付38倍的市盈率，对投资者来说会非常难受，但我们目前还看不到这种情况。

That's when paying 38 times earnings for a company like Caterpillar is gonna be really rough for investors, but we're not seeing it yet.

是的。

Yeah.

虽然这不是最近的例子，但大家肯定都记得，2010年代中国经济增长迅猛，每年7%、8%、9%的增速，让矿业公司、卡特彼勒这类企业因为需求旺盛而股价飙升。

I mean, it's not the most recent example, but certainly, I think we can all remember like the twenty tens, China's economic development growth boom, seven, eight, 9% annually was sending companies, mining companies, Caterpillar companies like this to soaring heights because of demand was just voracious.

但一旦中国经济开始放缓，建筑周期也慢下来，我猜大概十五、六年前，就是上一轮真正的大周期结束的时候。

But the minute we started to see, like, slowing Chinese economy and kind of the slowing of the construction cycle, that was I I would assume, like, yeah, fifteen, sixteen years ago was the last, like, real super cycle with a lot of this sort of stuff.

所以，看看这次去全球化和AI交易会不会成为这些市场的新一轮大周期，会很有意思。

So it'll be interesting to see if this deglobalization and AI trade becomes the next big super cycle for for these particular markets.

广告之后，我们来聊聊一家财报表现不太好的公司——Spotify。

Coming up after the break, one company that didn't do quite as good on the earnings perspective, that's Spotify.

那些看起来比所有人都高效的人，并不是工作时间更长或者喝更多咖啡。

The people who seem to get more done than everyone else, they're not working longer hours or running on more caffeine.

他们只是不再把时间浪费在那些对工作没有推进作用的事情上。

They've just stopped wasting time on the stuff that doesn't move work forward.

切换应用、重复解释背景、找文件——这些不是小问题。

Switching apps, re explaining context, hunting for files, those aren't small inefficiencies.

它们每周浪费好几个小时。

They're hours wasted every week.

Superhuman Go 能帮你把这些时间省回来。

Superhuman Go gives you those hours back.

这款由 Grammarly 团队打造的 AI 助手，能嵌入你使用的每一个标签页和工具，随时待命，帮你处理手头的工作。

From the makers of Grammarly, Go is an AI chat that sits inside every tab and tool you already use, always available and ready to help you with what you're working on.

你可以让它起草内容、总结长文、调取文件，或者帮你准备会议。

Ask it to draft something, summarize a long thread, pull up a file, or prep you for a meeting.

Go 能搞定这一切，而你完全不用离开当前页面。

Go handles it without you ever leaving the page you're on.

这才是 AI 真正融入工作、而不是给你添乱的样子。

This is what it looks like when AI actually fits into your work instead of adding to it.

它就像一个队友，唯一的工作就是帮你把工作做得更好。

It's like having a teammate whose only job is to help you be better at yours.

Go 跟上你的节奏，你就能继续前进。

Go keeps up so you can move forward.

有了 Go 的配合，你就能尽情展现自己的最佳水平。

And with Go working with you, you can show off what you do best.

去 superhuman.com 看看 Superhuman Go 能做什么吧。

See what Superhuman Go can do at superhuman.com.

网址就是 superhuman.com。

That's superhuman.com.

每周二，我们都会在《安全现在时》节目里聊网络安全。

Every Tuesday, we cover cybersecurity on Security Now.

大家好。

Hi.

我是 TWIT 播客网络的 Leo Laporte，邀请你和我们的专家 Steve Gibson 一起，聊聊那个 AI 突破限制、入侵 Hugging Face 的惊人故事。

This is Leo Laporte from the TWIT Podcast Network inviting you to join me and our guru Steve Gibson as we talk about that amazing story of the AI that escaped containment and hacked Hugging Face.

他会为你带来所有细节，还有一次重大的 Linux 内核修复等等。

He's got all the details for you, plus a huge Linux kernel repair and more.

《安全现在时》，每周二播出。

Security now every Tuesday.

你可以在 twit.tv/sn 以及所有播客平台上找到它。

You'll find it at twit.tv/sn and wherever you get your podcasts.

今天我们聊的三家公司里，Spotify的财报绝对是那种‘其中有一个不太一样’的结果。

Of the three companies that we're talking about here today, Spotify's earnings were definitely the one of these things is not like the other results.

这家公司昨天收盘后发布了财报。

Company reported earnings after the close yesterday.

目前股价相对平稳，但早盘交易时跌幅不小。

And, as we're right now, shares are relatively flat, but they were down quite a bit in early morning trading.

市场似乎给了它一点面子。

The market seems to be doing it a little bit of a favor here.

Spotify这次确实达到了几个重要的用户里程碑。

Now Spotify hit some significant use my user milestones.

日活跃用户和平均用户数等指标大幅增长，利润率扩张也非常出色，但营收和每股收益没有达到预期。

Total daily, average users and things like that were way up, and margin expansion was exceptionally good, but it did miss expectations for revenue and earnings per share.

Travis，我知道你对这家公司非常了解。

So Travis, I know you follow this company pretty intimately.

这只是一个季度性的小波动，还是营收和利润增长放缓的趋势呢？

Was this just some sort of quarterly blip, or is this a a kind of a trend in decelerating revenue and earnings?

嗯，这就是一家公司从增长模式转向成熟模式时会发生的情况，所以预期不同了，问题在于投资者对这家公司有什么期待，以及哪些投资者会对此感到兴奋。

Well, this is what happens when a company goes from growth mode to we're now a mature company, and so the expectations are different, and the question's gonna be, what do investors expect from the company, and then what are the investors that are gonna be excited about that?

你看，Spotify的总月活跃用户同比增长了12%。

I mean, you know, Spotify grew their total monthly users by 12% year over year.

这家公司拥有7.77亿月活跃用户。

This is a company that has 777,000,000 monthly active users.

这个数字非常庞大。

That is a massive number.

他们的高级订阅收入也持续增长了15%，但这不会再像几年前那样每年增长20%以上了。

They're also continued to grow their premium revenue 15%, but this is not gonna be a company that's gonna grow, you know, 20 plus percent year over year, like it maybe was a handful of years ago.

你会更关注利润率、自由现金流这些指标。

You're gonna be more focused on things like margins and free cash flow.

这倒不一定那么令人兴奋。

That's not necessarily as exciting.

话虽如此，管理层认为他们可以继续保持15%左右的复合年增长率，并实现20%的运营利润率。

That said, management thinks that they can continue to grow their compound annual growth rate in that mid teens range and get to a 20% operating margin.

这生意其实挺不错的。

That's a pretty darn good business.

问题是你愿意花多少钱买它？

The question is, what are you gonna pay for it?

现在投资者面临的纠结，有点像卡特彼勒那种情况。

And that sort of seems to be the battle for investors today is a little bit like Caterpillar.

如果它只是一个成熟的现金牛业务，你愿意出什么价？

If this is gonna be a just a mature cash generating business, what do you pay for it?

31倍的市盈率合理吗？

Is it is 31 times earnings the right number?

也许合理，但你必须想清楚，作为投资者，你的预期是什么？

It maybe it is, but you're gonna have to decide, you know, what do you expect as an investor?

你是成长型投资者，还是价值型投资者？

Are you a growth investor or a value investor?

我每次都很惊讶，他们居然还能找到那么多没用过他们服务的人，并且能把这些用户拉进来，这一点确实值得称赞。

I'm always amazed when they find more people that don't have the service and that they can add that way, so good on them for that.

但特拉维斯，我觉得你说得完全对，因为有时候股票本身没问题，问题出在投资者群体上。这家公司本身不错，只是比以前更成熟了。

But Travis, I think you have it exactly right, is that because sometimes with stocks, the stock isn't the problem, the investor base is, that this is a fine company, but it is more mature than it used to.

它不太可能再像以前那样高速增长了。

It's unlikely to be the growth story it was.

投资者群体需要时间来完成换手，这就会带来波动。

It may take time for the investor base to just switch out and that's gonna cause volatility.

我认为这本质上是一个自由现金流的故事。

I think it is a free cash flow story.

而且我觉得这个故事很有吸引力。

And I think it has a great story to tell.

我认为从现在开始，它是一项非常吸引人的收入加增长混合型投资，但它的故事会和以前不一样了。

I think it's a really, really attractive income slash growth hybrid investment from here, but it is gonna be a different story than it was.

所以我不认为那些追求增长的投资者会对这些结果感到兴奋。

And so I don't think you're going to see the growth focused crowd, like, saying wow to these results.

但这并不意味着这个季度表现不好。

That doesn't mean it was a bad quarter, though.

这听起来有点像我们在一些Motley Fool直播活动中讨论的话题，比如Netflix，以及现在谁还是它的投资者？

You know, this kind of sounds similar to the conversation we've been having here on some Motley Fool live events around, like, Netflix as well as who is the investor anymore?

因为这些成长型故事突然转型了——我们还在增长，只是不像以前那种令人瞠目结舌的高增长。

Because, you know, these growth stories that all of a sudden are transitioning to, we're still growing, just not at these, you know, nosebleed level growth that we had been putting up.

我们现在已经盈利了。

We're we're now profitable.

现金流也相当充裕。

We're throwing off quite a bit of cash.

这改变了参与这类公司的投资者类型。

It changes the type of investor that gets involved in these sort of companies.

我不想把话说得太绝对，说Spotify现在是一家差公司，但它确实是一家处于不同生命阶段的不同公司。

And, you know, I I I don't wanna preface this of saying like Spotify is a bad company now, but it's just a different company in a different phase of its life.

当我审视它时，它是一家稳健的公司，产生了大量自由现金流。

And when I I look at it, it's it's a solid company, it's generating a lot of free cash flow.

目前收入增长在个位数高位，也许通过提价能冲到低双位数。

Revenue right now, you know, high single digits, maybe you're gonna get it low double digits on a on a a growth, you know, surge, maybe a pricing increase.

这依然是一个非常优质的业务。

It's still a very quality business.

但这样的公司，值得32倍、33倍的市盈率吗？

But is that a company that sort of merits, you know, 32 times, 33 times earnings?

这才是关键问题。

That's the question here.

至于日活用户增长，恕我直言，感觉就像在问‘还有未征服的领域吗？’

And for on that daily user growth, pardon me almost says like, is there no more worlds left to conquer?

是的。

Yes.

它确实在增长，但正如卢所说，它已经占据了主导市场份额。

It's growing, but it's become the dominant market share as to Lou's point.

现在还有谁没用这个服务呢？

Like, who isn't using this service at this point?

有意思。

Funny.

我没有。

I'm not.

所以Spotify打电话给我，但我把它跟手机套餐绑在一起了。

So Spotify call me, but I but I I get it thrown in with my phone service.

所以我想至少还有一个市场可以拓展。

So I guess there are at least one more world to cover.

不过Tyler，我觉得你说得特别对。

But Tyler, I think you're exactly right.

我得说，Spotify确实值得提一嘴，我觉得它现在的投资逻辑比某些公司更站得住脚。

I will say shout out to Spotify because I think there's a better case here than there is for some.

我是说，哪怕我会收到一堆骂信，但像星巴克这些公司，我觉得它们是好企业，只是股票不值得买。

I mean, even and I'm gonna get nasty letters, but Starbucks and some of these companies, I just think good company, bad stock.

我认为这只股票依然靠谱，因为它兼具成长属性。

I think this is still a stock that works because I think it is a hybrid growth.

我觉得他们手里还有一些可以操作的杠杆，不过嘛，大概就是这样了。

I think they do have some levers to pull, but yeah, I think that that's it.

这里可能有两种情况同时成立。

That probably two things can be true here.

它仍然是一只值得投资的好股票，但估值可能需要调整一下。

It's still a good investable stock, but the valuation might need adjustment from here.

对。

Yeah.

对于一家能保持中两位数增长的公司来说，30倍的市盈率并不离谱。

30 times earnings isn't crazy for a company that can continue to grow in the mid teens.

但我觉得你说得对。

But I think you're right.

现在的问题是，如何从这里继续发展业务，这需要平衡：在基本饱和的市场里，如何给产品定价。

This this is now how do you grow the business from here and it's gonna be a balance of how do you price a product where you have basically saturated the market.

你就在玩这个游戏：是想要更多月活跃用户，还是想要更高的每用户价格，因为这个市场存在一定的弹性。

You're you're playing this game of do we want more monthly active users or do we want a higher price per user because there is some elasticity in that market.

你还有来自YouTube这类产品的竞争。

You have competition from products like YouTube.

所以我觉得，过去几年我们从Spotify身上学到的是，它不会成为下一个谷歌。

So I don't think I think what we've learned with Spotify over the last few years is they're not going to be the next Google, for example.

它只是不断推出新产品，比如YouTube，还有Waymo，但它的广告产品表现不太好，基本上没有同比增长，所以那并不是增长的主要动力。

Just just we're just gonna keep tacking on new product after new product, add YouTube, you know, add Waymo, their ad product kinda stinks that that basically didn't grow year over year, so that's not a huge driver of their growth.

视频业务，我觉得也没有达到他们预期的效果。

The video, I don't think is what they thought it maybe could be.

所以它就是一个稳健的业务。

So it's just a solid business.

就是那种我会在未来十年一直订阅并付费的服务。

It's just the kind of service that I'm gonna sign up for and pay for for the next decade.

等我的孩子长大了，他们最终也会自己买账户，这确实是个好生意。

And as my kids get older, they'll eventually graduate into buying their own accounts, you know, that's a good business to be.

对于投资者来说，30倍的市盈率是可以接受的。

It can be fine for investors at 30 times earnings.

但我不觉得它很便宜。

I don't think it's a steal.

所以，如果他们哪天股价低到决定大规模回购股票，那会很有意思，但对投资者来说可能有点折腾，而且很多时候这种事也上不了什么头条。

So, you know, if they ever get to the point where it's so cheap that they decide that they're gonna buy back a whole bunch of stock, that could be really interesting, this but is gonna be a little bit more ho for investors, and a lot of times that's not gonna get a lot of headlines for you.

对。

Yeah.

有意思的是，你说中十几的增长确实值得投入，但就像我们说的，现在还没到那一步，不过还是有一些手段可以试试，比如在边缘业务上调整一下，广告方面，或者把视频业务搞明白。

It'll be interesting to see how, you know, you're saying that mid teens growth is definitely worth playing, but as we were saying, you know, not quite there yet, but there are some levers to pull, maybe fixing around the margins, ads, maybe figure out video.

这些都是新尝试，有些东西嘛，执行起来也不总是那么完美。

These are new initiatives and some things, like, you know, aren't always perfect execution all the time.

所以路是有的，但还没到那一步。

So there is a path there, but not quite on the in the cards yet.

好了，各位，在结束之前，最后一个问题。

So last question before we get out of here, guys.

今天我们聊了三家公司：Palantir、卡特彼勒、Spotify。根据我听到的，我心里大概有数了。

Of the three companies we talked about today, Palantir, Caterpillar, Spotify, I think based on what I've heard, I've gotten a good idea.

这三家公司里，你现在最看好哪一家？

Which of these three companies is most attractive to you right now?

如果今天只能买一支，那大概是Spotify，但我也不确定自己真想在这三支里选一个。

If I was to buy one today, it would probably be Spotify, but I don't know if I really wanna jump into any of these three.

对。

Yeah.

我同意。

I agree.

这就是我持有的那支。

It's the one that I own.

这支的估值我能理解，而且它不那么受周期影响。

It's the one where I can actually wrap my head around the valuation, and it's not as cyclical.

所以，我今天对买Palantir或Caterpillar没什么兴趣。

So it's more that I am not really interested in buying Palantir or Caterpillar today.

只是别让我们觉得无聊。

Just so we're not boring.

如果时间跨度够长，我会选CAT。

If it's a long enough time horizon, I'll take CAT.

好了，各位，我们已经把他们的观点记录下来了，你们之后可以在邮件和评论里批评他们，我们到时候再看怎么处理。

Well, we've got them on record, everyone, so you can lambast them in emails and comments later, and we'll figure that out from there.

和往常一样，节目嘉宾可能对他们讨论的股票有兴趣，而Motley Fool也可能有正式的推荐或不推荐意见。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以，不要仅仅根据你听到的内容买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容都遵循Motley Fool的编辑标准，未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告是赞助内容，仅供参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

要查看完整的广告披露信息，请查看我们的节目笔记。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢制作人Dan Boyd和模型十三团队的其他成员。

Thanks for producer Dan Boyd and rest of the model-thirteen.

对于Lou、Travis和我自己，感谢你们的收听，我们下次再聊。

For Lou, Travis, and myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.