派拉蒙+华纳兄弟：1100亿美元赌注，或重塑流媒体格局

流媒体大战又迎来了一个大转折。

The streaming wars just took another big turn.

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我是 Travis Hoium，今天和我一起的是 Lou Whiteman 和 Matt Frankel。

I'm Travis Hoium joined today by Lou Whiteman and Matt Frankel.

各位，今天的大新闻是 Paramount 正式完成了与 Warner Bros. Discovery 的合并或收购。

Guys, the big news for the day is that Paramount has officially closed its merger or acquisition of Warner Bros.

这笔交易价值 1100 亿美元，给大家一个背景参考。

Discovery, a $110,000,000,000 deal for context.

这大约是迪士尼市值的一半，但他们没有主题公园，而主题公园正是迪士尼的利润引擎。

That's about half the value of Disney, but they don't have the parks, which is the profit driver of Disney.

那么，Matt，当你看到这笔交易时，还有 800 亿美元的债务，这看起来是一笔不小的数目。

So, Matt, when you look at this deal, also $80,000,000,000 worth of debt, which seems seems like a notable amount of money.

你看看这笔交易，再看看流媒体领域的竞争，大家都在涨价。

When you look at this deal and all the competition that's happening in the streaming space, everybody's raising their prices.

这次合并，这家新公司，在YouTube占据流媒体市场份额第一的世界里，有机会蓬勃发展吗？

Does this merger, does this new company have a chance to thrive in a world where you have YouTube with actually the number one market share in streaming?

还有Netflix。

You have Netflix.

还有迪士尼，以及一大堆其他玩家。

There's Disney, and then a whole bunch of other players.

这能成吗？

Is this gonna work out?

我的简短回答是能，但有个大前提。

I mean, my my short answer is yes with a big asterisk on it.

这确实立刻让合并后的公司成为主要玩家。

I mean, this instantly makes the combined company a major player for sure.

合并后的HBO Max和Paramount Plus加起来有超过2亿订阅用户。

It gives the combined HBO Max and Paramount plus services a little more than 200,000,000 subs.

它……

It...

如果把Hulu和ESPN+的订阅用户也算进去的话，它基本上和Disney+持平了。

It's essentially tied with Disney plus when you when you consider the Hulu and ESPN plus subscribers as well.

而且在观看时长方面，合并后的公司实际上立刻就能排到第二。

And when it comes to screen time, the combined company is actually the instant number two.

只有YouTube的观看时长比合并后的公司多。

Only YouTube has more more watch hours, than the combined company.

他们远远领先于迪士尼，甚至也远远领先于Netflix。

They're way ahead of Disney, way ahead of Netflix even.

哦，真的吗？

Oh, really?

但那肯定也包括有线电视吧。

But that must include cable too.

嗯，那包括……还有线性电视吗？

Well, that includes And linear TV?

是的。

Yes.

这包括了他们所有的传统电视内容。

That includes all their linear, stuff as well.

但也包括了迪士尼的传统电视内容。

But it includes, you know, Disney's linear as well.

所以，对。

So Yeah.

你知道，这……

You know, it's...

而且，这组合确实很厉害。

And, so it's a pretty impressive, combination.

他们的内容库相当丰富。

They have a pretty stacked content library.

他们……

They've...

在我看来，这个体育内容库连Netflix现在都比不上。

In my opinion, a sports library that even Netflix couldn't touch right now.

你知道，在你提到的这三家里，Netflix看起来最容易被这笔交易颠覆，但你提到了债务问题。

You know, of the three you mentioned, you know, Netflix looks the most disruptible by this deal, but you mentioned the debt.

对吧？

You know?

你说他们能不能蓬勃发展？

And when you say, can they thrive?

能不能赢？

Can they win?

这完全取决于成本节省和最终能否还清那笔债务。

That all depends on cost savings and being able to eventually pay back that debt.

他们想在三年内实现60亿美元的成本节省。

They want to achieve $6,000,000,000 of cost savings in three years.

大卫·埃里森说过，这不会靠裁员来实现，所以我...

David Ellison had said that's not gonna come from job cuts, so I...

那这些节省要从哪里来呢？

Where is it gonna come from?

而且，靠债务推动的并购在媒体行业里历来表现不佳。

And so debt fueled mergers have a bad track record in the media space.

比如，想想AT&T收购DIRECTV的例子。

Think of, like, when AT and T bought DIRECTV, for example.

你知道，他们的历史记录并不好。

You know, they they don't have a great track record.

所以，是的，这次他们有可能成功。

So, yes, they could be a success here.

这确实让他们立刻成为有力的竞争者，但这不是必然的。

It it instantly makes them a contender, but it's it's not a given.

Lou，他们是不是……

Lou, do they...

他们不仅背负这么多债务的历史表现不佳，而且这家公司，时代华纳，长期以来也有不少奇怪甚至可以说是失败的并购记录。

Not only do they not have a good track record taking on this much debt, but also this company, Time Warner, has a long track record of sort of odd and arguably failed mergers.

那我们好好规划一下。

So let's game plan this out.

对吧？

Okay?

我们试着想想他们怎么才能赢。

Let's try and figure out how they win here.

消费者价格。

Consumer price.

现在有很多关于把HBO Max和Paramount+捆绑在一起，或者把非高端服务捆绑起来的讨论，但他们需要现金来偿还那笔债务。

There's a lot of talk about bundling HBO Max and Paramount plus or bundling the non premium services, but they need cash to service that debt.

那笔债务是最重要的问题。

That debt is the biggest thing.

如果捆绑销售，价格会比单独订阅两个服务要低。

If you're bundling, you're bringing down the cost versus having the two as standalones.

你……

You...

而且这只有在你们大幅扩大市场的情况下才行得通。

And that only works if you substantially grow the pie.

我现在不太相信，如果只是便宜一块钱，会有很多人去订阅HBO Max。

And I am not convinced right now that there are a lot of people that would have HBO Max if only it was like, you know, a buck cheaper.

所以我不知道怎么……

So I don't know how my...

如果只是捆绑就能大幅扩大市场，那我对他们捆绑的能力表示怀疑。

If you can substantially grow the pie by just bundling here, which makes me skeptical about their ability to bundle.

你看。

Look.

我确实认为，如果他们能挺过初期阶段，能还清债务，从勉强维持到真正投资业务，这组资产在流媒体领域是相当强大的。

I do think that this is a pretty powerful group of assets in the streaming world if they can survive the initial stage, if they can pay down the debt and, like, go from treading water to actually investing in the business.

但短期内，我不认为格局有太大变化，因为我觉得在收入方面，他们没法像期望的那样通过捆绑和协同效应来获益。

But in the near term, I don't think the landscape has changed that much because I don't think on the revenue side, they're gonna be able to bundle and do synergies the way they'd like.

而在成本方面，就像Matt说的，如果他们不裁员，也许只是合并后少用点服务器空间。

And on the cost side, like Matt says, if they're not gonna take out jobs, you know, maybe a little less server space combined.

我不知道。

I don't know.

你知道吗，我我也不知道这想法从哪来的。

You know, like, I I don't know where that's coming from.

Lou，你觉得这个捆绑套餐有没有可能真的变得很有吸引力，让那些可能现在没订Paramount或者HBO Max的人动心？顺便说一句，他们现在那个名字配置真是让人搞不清楚。

Lou, do you think that there's a possibility that this bundle would actually make it attractive enough for for those of us who maybe don't pay for Paramount or HBO Max, whatever whatever they're calling that right now, by the way, that naming configuration.

他们……

They...

他们得把这事儿搞清楚。

They've gotta figure that out.

但他们有没有可能说，你知道吗？

But is it possible that they are able to say, you know what?

如果我们把这两个服务合在一起，把所有内容打包成一个，每月15美元，那整体用户规模会不会比两个分开卖、每月各10美元更大？

If we put both of these things together, put all of our assets in one for $15 a month, that's gonna be a bigger pie overall than two of these services separate for let's say $10 a month.

我可能没把订阅数字说得很准。

I'm not getting quite the the subscription numbers correct.

但是，你知道，让更多人付钱，哪怕比单独服务的标价便宜一点，也可能是好事，而且也许流失率不会那么高？

But, you know, having more people paying even a little bit less than the than the sticker price for the individual services could be a good thing and maybe you don't have as much churn?

也许吧。

Maybe.

但再说，怎么可能会……

But again, how might...

我的意思是，这……

I mean, it...

我在这里假设，主要目标会是偿还那笔债务。

I am I am assuming here that the primary goal is going to be to service that debt.

而且你需要很多额外的订阅才能让这收支平衡，或者从现金流入的角度看对你有利。

And you need a lot of additional subscriptions to make that just breakeven or advantageous to you from a just cash coming in perspective.

所以，是的，也许随着时间的推移会这样。

So, yeah, maybe over time.

但再说，现在，捆绑这些服务能满足他们最大的需求吗？

But again, right now, does it serve their biggest need to bundle these things?

我觉得这里是有风险的。

I think there's a risk there.

如果现在有人付20块，后来变成15块，那你的收入反而会减少。

You could end up with just less revenue if you have someone paying 20 right now going to 15.

所以，你知道，关键还是在于，Travis，你觉得有多少人……

So, know, it's all about just how, again, Travis, how many do you...

你觉得外面有多少人会觉得，哎呀，每个10块钱我可能不太舍得，但如果两个一起15块，那就很划算。

How many people out there do you think are just like, man, I don't know if I can justify $10 apiece for these, but man, if I can get both of them for 15, that's a deal.

我相信肯定有这样的人，只是不知道人数够不够多，能不能真正带来大的变化。

I'm sure there's some out there, I just don't know if it's enough to really move the needle.

这个……

The...

我……

I...

你说得对。

You're right.

我不太清楚具体会增加多少人。

I don't know exactly what the incremental number of people is.

另外，他们确实做过一些捆绑套餐。

The other thing is they have done some bundles.

这些公司以前也推出过捆绑套餐。

These companies have done some bundles in the past.

我现在用的套餐是迪士尼的，但里面包含了HBO Max。

The bundle that I'm on is through Disney, but it includes HBO Max.

所以我不确定。

So I don't know.

我会不会失去这个套餐？

Am I gonna get that taken away?

然后我会不会重新订阅Paramount Max？

And then am I gonna re sign up for the Paramount Max?

我……

I...

这一切都会变得非常复杂，这似乎也是整个流媒体行业的大趋势。

It's all gonna be very complicated, which seems to be the trend for streaming in general.

我们回来之后，要聊聊派拉蒙和华纳兄弟之外，可能成为赢家的那些公司。

When we come back, we're gonna talk about the potential winners outside of Paramount in Warner Bros.

还有探索频道。

Discovery.

我们稍后回来。

We'll be back in a moment.

欢迎回到节目。

Welcome back to the show.

我想聊聊在这个流媒体格局中，随着更多整合的发生，谁可能成为赢家。

I wanted to talk about who the potential winners are in this streaming landscape as we have some more consolidation happening.

而且，卢，这里有很多变数，但现在市场上似乎有四个，甚至五个主要的玩家。

And, you know, Lou, there's a lot of moving pieces here, but you now seem to have kind of four, maybe five power players in the market.

他们会是谁呢……

Who are they going to be...

谁……

Who...

最终谁会赢？

Who's gonna ultimately be the winner?

会是那些公司中的某一家吗？

Is it gonna be one of those companies?

会是那些现在专注于卖内容的公司之一吗？

Is it gonna be one of the companies that's now focusing on selling content?

你在寻找流媒体或相关领域的机会时，会想到哪里？

Where does your mind go when you're looking for opportunities either in streaming or adjacent to streaming?

所以我们得给个最高评价。

So we gotta do the gold star.

这笔交易的最大赢家是大卫·扎斯拉夫和华纳兄弟的其他高管团队。

The big winner from this deal is David Zaslav and the rest of the Warner Bros.

高管团队。

Executive team.

你看，他们手里本来是一副烂牌。

Look, they had a losing hand.

他们都不知道该怎么办了。

They didn't know what to do.

现在突然之间，他们和他们的股东拿到了一笔不错的溢价。

And now suddenly they and their shareholders get a nice premium.

而且我觉得管理层能拿到大概八亿美元的回报。

And I think management gets like an $800,000,000 payout.

所以如果这笔交易有大赢家的话，那就是管理层从‘各位，我不确定这能不能成’一下子变成‘太好了’，这点得给他们点赞。

So if there is a big winner from this deal, it is a management team going from, Guys, I don't know if this is working out, to eureka, so give them credit there.

不过说到整体赢家，我不觉得这个格局有什么真正的变化。

Look, as far as the overall winners, I don't know if I see a real change in the landscape here.

我是说，我觉得有几个，Matt在笔记里列出来了。

I mean, I think there's a few and Matt listed out in the notes.

我不会抢他的话，但我觉得……

I'm I'm not gonna steal it, what he said, but I I think...

我觉得，除非派拉蒙能把债务问题解决，站稳脚跟，然后再看看接下来能做什么，否则现状就是这样。

Like, look, I think this is the status quo until or unless Paramount can get its feet on solid ground with the debt and then see what they can do from there.

马特，你觉得最终谁会赢？

Matt, who do you think ultimately wins here?

我觉得，电影院会是这笔交易最大的赢家，而且……

I mean, I think movie theaters are gonna end up being the biggest winner from this deal specifically, and it...

而且差距还挺明显的。

And it's not even that close.

为了让交易达成，和解协议要求至少每年有30部院线电影……

The settlement that allowed the deal to close requires at least 30 theatrical re...

华纳或者合并后的公司，前两年每年至少30部，之后三年每年32部。

Releases from Warner's a year or from the combined company, whatever, for the first two years and 32 a year for the next three.

它还锁定了45天的院线独占期，这本来是影院最担心的……

It locks in a forty five day theatrical exclusivity window, which has been the biggest theater...

或者说，影院最怕的就是这个独占期会消失。

Or biggest fear with movie theater disruption that all that was gonna go away.

如果当初是Netflix收购的话，可能就不会这样了。

Not sure that would have happened if Netflix had bought it.

所以这对影院行业来说是个大事。

So that's a big deal for the movie theater business.

那内容方面呢？

What about the content?

你知道，我一直在想几个名字，比如TKO，它拥有UFC。

You know, a couple of the names that I keep thinking about is TKO, so owns the UFC.

他们确实和派拉蒙达成了大交易。

They did make the big deal with Paramount.

看起来这类直播版权现在变得很抢手，公司们最终都会争着要。

It seems like those kind of live rights are now have companies that are gonna ultimately be desperate for these live rights.

NFL也是，他们可以在未来几年内选择退出部分合同，然后重新谈判。

The NFL, another one, they can opt out of some of their deal in the next couple of years, potentially renegotiate that.

现在像ESPN这样的公司，NFL在其中也有股份。

Now you've got companies like ESPN, which the NFL has a stake in.

他们需要那些内容。

They need that content.

CBS、派拉蒙，你知道，这个集团需要那些内容。

CBS, Paramount, you know, this conglomerate needs that content.

Netflix可以说也需要那些内容。

Netflix arguably needs that content.

这……

It...

现在直播体育是不是会引发更大的竞标战？

Is that live sports going to be just an even bigger bidding war now?

嗯，这……

Well, it...

很难说直播体育在这里会不会成为赢家。

It's tough to say if the live sports are gonna be winners here.

比如说，想想NFL。

So think of like the NFL, for example.

你……

You...

你说得对。

You're correct.

他们确实有权利……

They they have the right...

在很多情况下，他们可以在2029赛季之后重新谈判他们的权利。

They can renegotiate their rights after the 2029 season in in a lot of cases.

而且这……

And it's...

而且现在他们有了一个更强的合作伙伴，知道对方资金更雄厚，也就是CBS，现在归合并后的公司所有。

And it now has a stronger partner that it knows has deeper pockets, you know, in in CBS, which is now owned by the combined company.

但另一方面，你知道，合并可能不是最好的选择，对于……

But on the other hand, you know, consolidation might not be the best thing for...

不仅仅是NFL，对所有体育联盟来说都是如此。

And not just the NFL, for all these sports leagues.

所以，竞标体育直播的两大主要买家，CBS和TNT，现在合并成了一家公司。

So two of the major bidders for live sports, CBS and TNT, are now combined under one company.

这意味着竞争减少了。

So that means less competition.

所以这会……

So it's gonna...

这很难说。

It's it's tricky to say.

我觉得这算是……

I think it it is a...

这……

It...

这对体育直播联盟来说是个提振，但并不是看起来那么大的意外之财，因为合并后，虽然很多公司需要这些内容，但现在能让他们为此买单的公司变少了。

It's a lift for the live sports, you know, leagues, but it's not the the massive windfall that that it might seem when you get consolidation because, yes, a lot of companies need this content, but there are fewer that they can make pay up for it now.

你看，体育直播……

And look, live sports...

我同意，包括Netflix在内的每个人都需要直播体育。

I I agree everyone including Netflix needs live sports.

我不知道他们是否都需要高...

I don't know if they all need the high...

他们确实...

They did...

他们都需要参与竞标战。

They all need to get in bidding wars.

可以说，TNT在某些竞标中一直是推动竞标战的一方。

TNT arguably was the one driving bidding wars in some of these.

所以现在他们再次受到限制，是的。

So to the extent that now they're constrained again Yes.

他们

They

退出了NBA。

backed out of the NBA.

债务问题。

The debt.

我，你知道，我我我我不知道这是不是好事。

I, you know, I I I I don't know if that's great.

但是，你看，Netflix。

But, look, Netflix.

Netflix花大价钱买NFL的转播权，这合理吗？

Does it make sense for Netflix to pay up for the NFL?

我不知道长期来看他们会不会这么想。

I don't know if long term they'll think that.

我确实觉得他们需要直播体育赛事，但Netflix本来就是大家都会订阅的服务。

I do think yes, they need live sports, but Netflix is the service everybody has anyway.

所以他们不会从中获得太多额外收入……

So they don't get a lot of incremental revenue out of...

我猜他们能获得广告收入，但他们……

I I guess they get ad revenue, but they...

再说，这也不足以证明那种乱砸钱的做法是合理的。

Again, that's not enough to justify just stupid bidding.

我觉得他们做直播体育是为了确保自己还能保持热度，用户不会流失。

I think they are in live sports to make sure that they remain relevant and people stay with them.

但这并不是……

But that is not...

光靠留住用户，那只是防守策略。

Just getting people to stay, that's a defensive move.

这并不能增加收入。

That's not adding revenue.

所以我觉得，直播内容和让用户按月续费、订了就不管的那种方式，确实是有用的，而不是那种……

So I do think that yes, live content and reasons to stay month to month and just set it and forget it versus just kind of...

对于Apple TV，我们想过，好吧。

With Apple TV, we've thought about, okay.

我们可能会订一个月，疯狂刷完，然后退订，不会一直留着。

We'll sign up for a month binge and get off and not do that.

我觉得这确实有点道理。

I do think there's something to that.

我不确定这些顶级资源是不是真的会引发各方争抢，毕竟大家都需要直播内容。

I don't know if necessarily these marquee assets are going to find bidding wars with everybody involved just because everybody needs something live.

嗯，有意思的是，最后谁会弱到连竞价的资格都没有。

Well, it's gonna be interesting to see too who ends up being so weak that they can't get in those bidding wars.

我们回来后会聊聊那些可能的输家。

We'll talk about some of those potential losers when we come back.

好的。

Alright.

我们刚才聊了这次合并可能带来的赢家。

We talked about some of the winners potentially from this merger that happened.

马特，我们来聊聊可能的输家吧。

Let's talk about what the potential losers are, Matt.

这看起来是个已经整合得差不多的领域，你大概知道谁是强者，但哪些公司已经失去了那种实力呢？

And this seems like an area where we've had enough consolidation that you kinda know who the power players are, but who are the companies that just don't have that power anymore?

最明显的例子就是Peacock。

I mean, the the obvious example is Peacock.

对。

And Mhmm.

我不是说他们因为这个就输了。

I'm not saying they're a loser because of this.

他们整体上就是个不太行的流媒体服务。

They're they're just kind of a losing streaming service in general.

而且不只是说他们不成功。

And not just losing as in they're not successful.

他们是在亏钱。

They're losing money.

他们有4600万付费用户，还不到迪士尼组合或这家新合并公司的四分之一。

They have 46,000,000 paid subscribers, less than a quarter of either the Disney bundle or this new combined company.

他们从开始到现在总共亏了超过100亿美元。

They've lost over $10,000,000,000 total since they started.

而现在，它的竞争对手比以前更大、更强了。

And now its competitors are even bigger and more powerful than ever before.

我的看法是，孔雀台要么把自己卖掉，要么找个合作伙伴。

My opinion is that Peacock should either sell themselves or find somebody to partner with.

我觉得，他们现在最好的选择就是合资或者出售。

I mean, their best move at this point is a joint venture or sale.

那……

That...

那是我唯一能想到的办法。谁会

That's really the only way I see them Who could

有可能这么做呢？

potentially do that?

是迪士尼吗？

Is it is it a Disney?

是奈飞吗？

Is it a Netflix?

嗯，我是说……

Well, I mean...

而且可能是分批进行的。

And it could be piece by piece.

可能会有某种……对。

There could be some sort of Yeah.

你知道，好吧。

You know, okay.

我们会放弃这个资产，但会引入Peacock，因为他们确实拥有NBC的线性网络。

We'll get rid of this asset, but we'll bring on Peacock because they they do own the NBC, you know, linear network.

所以，你知道，有一些……

So, you know, there are some...

有很多公司买得起。

There are a lot of companies that could afford it.

Netflix买得起。

Netflix could afford it.

迪士尼也买得起。

Disney could afford it.

问题就在于能不能通过监管审批，以及审批过程会是什么样子。

It's just a matter of it being able to get through the regulatory process and what that might look like.

这不只是单纯的出售。

It's not just a sale.

合作也是一种可行的方式。

A partnership could work as well.

你知道，我们之前见过迪士尼和某些公司合作，那些公司并不是迪士尼旗下的，但合作对双方都有好处。

You know, we've seen Disney partner with with certain companies before that they don't own, and and it's it's worked out advantageously for both.

别忘了，环球影城的主题公园也是其中的一部分。

And don't forget that that, you know, Universal Studios, parks are also part of that.

应该是……

Should be...

如果奈飞最终没有参与进来，我会很惊讶。

I I would be surprised if Netflix doesn't get involved, if they end up...

如果最后真的有人对NBC进行竞标的话。

If there ends up being some sort of bidding for NBC.

但是Lou，你觉得谁在这件事里会处于下风？

But Lou, who do you think comes out weaker here?

我觉得Netflix会处于下风。

So I think Netflix comes out weaker.

我知道大家都盯着那笔分手费。

I know everyone points to the breakup fee.

那当然不错。

That's great.

现金是挺好，但他们一直在寻找知识产权内容。

Cash is fine, but they were in and continue to be in the hunt for IP.

他们真的很需要那些内容。

They could really use that.

而且我不知道那28亿美元或者多少现金，能比得上那些内容库和现在大家都在追求的低成本内容。

And I don't know how much that 2,800,000,000 or whatever it is in cash is going to give them versus the libraries and just kind of the cheap content that I think they're all striving for right now.

我们不需要投入资金。

We're not having to invest.

Peacock，你看，真正的问题是，光是让两个二流公司合并就费了好大劲。

Peacock, look, the real question here is that it took a lot of finagling just to get two also rants merged.

我不知道有没有人既有钱买Peacock，又能通过监管机构的批准。

I don't know if there's anyone who has the money to buy Peacock that regulators would allow to buy Peacock.

很难想象迪士尼在已经有ABC的情况下还能有机会插一脚。

It's hard to imagine Disney with ABC already getting to kind of take a crack at that.

Netflix仍然是个让人忌惮的角色。

Netflix is still sort of the boogeyman.

我的意思是，我来告诉你我希望看到什么结果。

I mean, I'll I'll tell you what I'd like to see happen here.

我觉得Netflix和Peacock会达成某种合作整合协议，类似于合作但不合并。

I I I think that Netflix and Peacock will figure out some sort of aggregation deal where they kind of work together short of a merger.

我觉得这很有道理，比如给……

I think that makes a lot of sense like giving

所以也许干脆关掉Peacock流媒体服务，然后直接说，你知道吗，Netflix，我们就把所有内容卖给你。

So maybe even shut down the Peacock streaming service and just say, you know what, Netflix, we'll just sell you all

我们的所有内容？

of our content?

或者用某种方式分成，把Peacock的内容加到Netflix上，这虽然不是合并，但也是他们合作并保持一致。

Or some way to revenue share and add the Peacock content to Netflix while it's just something short of a merger where they are working together and aligned.

我还是觉得……

I still...

而且我……

And I'm...

这只是我个人的坚持，但我觉得最终要取得优势的做法是，迪士尼把它的制片厂和流媒体业务，所有非体验类的部分，和Netflix合并，迪士尼保留股份，保留知识产权，继续发展知识产权。

This is just me out here dying on a hill, but, I I think the ultimate move here to get an advantage is Disney taking its studio and streaming business, all of the non experiences, merging it with Netflix, with Disney retaining a stake, keeping the IP, continuing to grow the IP.

但迪士尼要摆脱低利润或者说……

But for Disney to just get out of the low margin slash I...

我们做不成的这个业务，也就是……

We can't make this work business that is...

他们一直很挣扎，尽管你知道，他们……

They've struggled with despite all of the, you know, they...

他们一直在挪动杯子。

They've been moving cups around.

但底下还是没有球。

There's still no ball underneath them.

把那些能运作的部分，也就是体验，交给Netflix，让Netflix和迪士尼一起运营那些IP，迪士尼嘛，我不知道，持有……

Turn them into the part that works, the experience, let Netflix run that IP with Disney, I don't know, owning...

如果是个反向莫斯信托之类的，他们很容易就能保留25%的股份。

If if it's a reverse morse trust or something, they could easily retain a 25% stake.

那才是必胜的一手。

That is the winning hand.

如果我是这些CEO之一，我不知道我有没有勇气这么做，所以我怀疑这不会发生。

I don't know if I would have the courage to do it if I was one of these CEOs, so I doubt it 'll happen.

但我确实认为，这是这里的绝杀一步。

But I I do think that that is the checkmate move out here.

Lou 会在这件事上唠叨一阵子的。

Lou is gonna be on this hobby horse for a while.

我……

I...

作为家长，我能决定孩子看什么，迪士尼要是没了那可太糟糕了，因为那是唯一一个……

As a as a parent who gets decisions over what my kids get to watch, Disney going away would be awful because that is the one Why

但它怎么会消失呢？

would it go away though?

嗯，如果它被并入 Netflix 的话。

Well, if it was folded into Netflix.

Netflix 就是没有那种家长控制功能，也没有那种质量。

Netflix just doesn't have the the parental controls, the quality.

但我们刚才不是聊过这个嘛。

But but we just talked about this.

WD、BD 和派拉蒙不太可能把所有资产都合并到一起。

WD, BD and Paramount is unlikely just to combine all of their assets in one.

这很容易……

There is easily...

我的意思是，我不……

I mean, I don't...

而且Netflix要是说‘对，我们就要关掉这个儿童品牌’，那也太傻了。

And Netflix would be crazy to say, yeah, we're just gonna shut down this kid's brand.

你知道，有很多办法可以让这事儿成。

You know, there's a lot of ways to make this work.

我觉得对Netflix来说，关键是IP，是所有的制作，就是那些现成的东西。

I think for Netflix, it's the IP, it's all of the production, it's just the ready made stuff.

对迪士尼来说，就是继续从中获益，但把重点放在过去十年一直赚钱的业务上，也就是体验、游轮之类的。

And for Disney, it's let's continue to benefit from this, but focus on the parts of the business that have worked for the last decade, which is, again, experiences, cruise ships, things like that.

为什么不干脆只做赚钱的那部分业务呢？

Why not just be in the part of the business that makes money?

怎么……

How...

这对迪士尼来说为什么疯狂呢？

Why is that crazy for Disney?

也许并不疯狂。

It's maybe not crazy.

也许不是家长们想要的用户体验。

Maybe not the user experience that that parents want.

这是我唯一的反对意见。

That's my only pushback here.

如果你对这些公司应该做什么、谁应该和谁合并有想法，请发送邮件到 podcast@fool.com。

If you have thoughts about what these companies should be doing, who should be merging with who, send us an email at podcast@fool.com.

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我是特拉维斯·霍伊姆，代表卢·怀特曼、马特·弗兰克尔和玻璃后面的丹·博伊德。

For Lou Whiteman, Matt Frankel, and Dan Boyd behind the glass, I'm Travis Hoium.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

我们明天在这里见。

We'll see you here tomorrow.

嘿，

Hey,