私人资产即将进入你的投资组合……做好准备

美国证券交易委员会说私人资产没问题。

The SEC says private assets are alright.

Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资现在开始。

Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.

欢迎来到 Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是你们的主持人，Crowe。

I'm your host, Crowe.

今天和我一起的是长期为 Fool 撰稿的 Jon Quast 和 Lou Whiteman。

And today, I'm joined by long time Fool contributors, Jon Quast and Lou Whiteman.

各位，我们要讨论的是 2026 年至今的一个大主题，那就是把私人资产、私人资本、私人股权带给大众，带给散户投资者，带给普通人……

Guys, we're gonna get into what has been a large theme so far in 2026, and that is bringing private assets, private capital, private equity to the masses, to the retail investors, to the guy...

像我们这样的人。

The people like us.

我们还会看看听众来信，但今天得先从当天的盈利惊喜数字开始，那就是埃森哲。

We're also gonna jump into the mailbag, but we have to start today with kind of the earnings surprise numbers of the day, and that's Accenture.

股价涨了大概19%，因为我们正在录制的时候，他们的财报表现比预期要好。

Shares are up about 19% as we're taping on better than expected earnings.

营收和利润都超过了预期，而且他们的财年指引也出来了——因为这是他们2026财年的尾声，他们说2027财年的指引也比华尔街的预期稍微高一点。

Revenue and earnings both beat expectations, and their fiscal guidance, because this was the end of their fiscal twenty twenty six year, they said fiscal twenty twenty seven came in also slightly higher than Wall Street expectations.

所以这家公司最近一直在缓慢下滑，我就在想，对于一家在过去两三年里好消息寥寥的公司来说，这次到底做对了什么？

So this has been a company that's been on a slow glide path down recently, and so the question to me is, what went right for a company that has been rather short on good news over the past couple of years?

抱歉啊，泰勒，我可能有点扫兴，但事实就是：埃森哲没倒闭。

I'm sorry to be that guy, Tyler, but what went right was Accenture didn't die.

这让我想起多年前蒙提·派森电影里的一个场景，他们喊着‘把死人抬出来’，然后把一个人推上独轮车，那人却说：‘我还没死呢。’

It kind of reminds me of this scene from the Monty Python movie years ago, where they're saying, bring out your dead, and they throw the guy on the wheelbarrow and he says, I'm not dead yet.

现在的情况差不多就是这样。

This is kind of what that is.

埃森哲还没到那一步，但我也不能说他们的业务一定有多红火。

Accenture is not dead yet, but I wouldn't say that business is necessarily booming.

你看它刚结束的2026财年，用本地货币计算的营收——我觉得这是个不错的指标，毕竟它是家国际企业，用当地货币衡量更合理——同比只增长了5%。

So you look at its fiscal twenty twenty six, which is what it just completed, revenue in local currency, which I think that's a good metric, since it is an international business, measuring that in the local currency, revenue only up 5% year over year.

这算不上真正的繁荣。

That's not exactly thriving.

还行吧，但也没什么值得特别夸耀的。

It's okay, but it's not anything that you're gonna write home about.

展望2027财年，管理层预计增长率只有3%到6%。

You look ahead to fiscal twenty twenty seven, management only expects 3% to 6% growth.

所以接下来一年甚至可能进一步放缓。

So it could even decelerate further into the coming year.

所以这对埃森哲来说不算是大胜利，但它还活着。

So this isn't necessarily a great victory for Accenture, but it is still alive.

你知道吗？

And you know what?

也许这就够了，因为估值很关键，在财报发布前，股价已经跌到预期市盈率的10倍以下。

Maybe that's enough because valuation matters here and going into earnings, the stock had dipped below 10 times expected earnings.

就在两年前，市盈率还在30多倍。

Just two years ago, they were up in the thirties.

这，我是说，是的，Jon，我觉得你不是那种人。

This was, I mean, yeah, Jon, I don't think you're being that guy.

我觉得有时候只要宣布一下，嘿，天没塌下来，至少在短期内这就够了。

I think sometimes just announcing that, hey, the sky actually isn't falling, that is enough at least in the near term.

我觉得Jon总结得很好。

I think Jon summed it up well.

他们超出了预期。

They beat expectations.

预期本来就很惨淡。

Expectations were dismal.

如果你看看预期是什么……

If you look at what expectation...

就像他们下调指引的方式。

Like the way they've guided down.

但你看，三个月前，大家还在争论埃森哲能不能活下来。

But look, three months ago, there was a debate about whether or not Accenture can survive.

所以，你知道，这些结果有助于回答那些问题。

So, you know, these results help answer those questions.

我不知道它从这里是不是一只大涨的股票，但如果它不会归零，如果有迹象表明它不会……

I don't know if it's a massive growth stock from here, but if it isn't going to zero, if there are signs that just it's not going...

那么就有理由从个位数的市盈率反弹，我觉得，这就是我们看到的。

Then there is a reason to bounce off of a single digit multiple, I think, and that's what we're seeing.

看，各位，如果他们不会消失，现在市盈率也只有14倍，你知道，还是有点便宜的。

Look, guys, if they're not going away, it's still only 14 times earnings today, which is, you know, kind of still kind of cheap.

但是，是的，我觉得更难的问题是

But, yeah, that's I think the harder question

从这里开始。

from here.

嗯，我觉得还有其他一些迹象表明，它可能比投资者给予它的评价要强一些。

Well, I think there are a couple other things that signal that maybe it is a little bit stronger than what investors were giving it credit for.

你看营业利润率，看非GAAP，因为它确实排除了一些与去年相比更有利的一次性项目。

You look at the operating margin, look at the non GAAP, because that does exclude some one offs that were more favorable for, compared to last year.

营业利润率确实同比略有上升，达到15.8%，这是一个非常可观的利润率，而且比去年略好，所以这是好事。

The operating margin did go up slightly year over year, so 15.8% operating margin, that's a very respectable margin, and slightly better than last year, so that is good.

再看看它返还给股东的现金。

You also look at the cash that it's returning to shareholders.

基本上，过去一年它把所有的自由现金流都以股票回购和分红的形式返还给了股东。

Basically, returning all of the cash, free cash flow to shareholders over the past year in the form of share repurchases and dividends.

你可以悲观一点说，管理层没招了，想稳固股东基础；但乐观一点看，它确实认为自己的股票很有价值，而且通过把自由现金流用于股票回购，它是在用实际行动说话。

I suppose you could be glass half empty kind of a guy and say, management is out of ideas and trying to solidify its shareholder base, but glass half full, it really does see its stock as an attractive value, and it's putting its money where its mouth is by deploying that free cash flow into share repurchases.

埃森哲一直是一个现金回报的故事，长期以来都是如此。

And Accenture's always been a cash return story, it has been for a long time.

如果这是一个新变化，我可能会更担心，那可能意味着他们没招了。

I'd be more nervous about that if this was a new change that that might say they've run out of ideas.

但没错，这其实就是

But yeah, this is kind of

他们一贯的做法。

what they do.

对，我想说的是，当你是一家咨询公司，所有的资产都是人，资本支出就是买椅子和办公设备，你不需要……

Yeah, was gonna say when you're consulting company and all your assets are people and your capital expenditures are on chairs and office equipment, it's not like you have to...

这种业务，你不需要花太多钱就能维持运营。

You don't have to spend much to keep the lights on with a business like this.

现在，这部分我们想承认错误，我们要稍微揭开一些我们Motley Fool服务的内幕，包括Hidden Gems和Rule Breakers团队。

Now, this is the section we kinda wanna eat crow, and we're gonna go behind the curtain a little bit with some of our Motley Fool services, both on the hidden gems and the Rule Breakers teams.

过去几个月，我们在真实资金投资组合中卖掉了埃森哲，甚至在一些推荐服务中暂停了它。

Past couple of months, we've either sold Accenture in real money portfolios or even put it on hold in some of our recommendation services.

我在想，看到这些结果后，是不是该承认错误了。

I'm wondering, after seeing these results, if it's time to eat crow.

我在纠结这份报告是趋势还是异常。

I struggle whether this report was a trend or an aberration.

你说得对，5%的股息或5%的收入增长，三……

To your point, 5% dividend or 5% revenue growth, three...

不算多，但如果你加上合理的回购，在合理的估值下，你可以达到每股收益7%到10%的增长。

Is not much, but you compound that with good buybacks, at a reasonable valuation, you can get to seven to 10% earnings per share growth.

而且以你现在的估值来看，放到大局里想想，这其实也不是那么没有吸引力。

And at the valuation that you have, that's not the most unattractive proposition when you think about it in the grand scheme of things.

不过我们得小心，别因为一个季度的市场反应就过度解读。

Well, let's be careful not to read too much into the market's reaction from a single quarter.

我们可以回顾一下2025年5月，当时Trade Desk的股价上涨了大约20%，达到每股70美元左右，那天有个头条新闻说：Trade Desk的Kokai平台推动了惊人的反弹。

We could take a little stroll down memory lane to May 2025, when the Trade Desk stock was up about 20% to about $70 per share, and one headline from that day read, Trade Desk's Kokai platform fuels stunning rebound.

从那以后，股价跌了大约80%，所以单日对单季度的市场反应，并不一定意味着一切都已经明朗了。

We're down roughly 80% since then, so a market reaction in a single day to a single quarter doesn't necessarily mean that this, everything is all clear.

还是有一些问题，我是说，AI正在改变很多领域，我觉得埃森哲的业务仍然有一些未解的问题。

There are still some questions, I mean, AI is changing so many things out there, and I'd say that Accenture's business is still, there are still some questions that remain unanswered.

不过我要说，有一件事让我非常振奋，如果我是埃森哲的股东，我也会很受鼓舞，那就是埃森哲表示，65%的新订单来自基于结果的固定价格项目。

I will say this, one thing that was extremely encouraging to me, and that I would be very encouraged with if I were a shareholder of Accenture, Accenture says that 65% of new bookings came from outcome based fixed price projects.

这可是件大事。

Now, that is a very big thing.

你看看AI正在取代的工作量，它们没有固定成本，这点我可以直接告诉你。

You look at the workloads that AI is replacing, they don't have fixed costs, I'll tell you that right now.

虽然可以按结果付费，但AI常常会陷入循环，白白消耗大量token。如果你要预估自己的开支，想在付出的价格内得到想要的结果，在很多情况下你根本不知道AI会怎样。

It can be outcome based, but oftentimes AI gets stuck in these loops, and it burns tokens needlessly, and it is really hard if you're trying to model what your expenses are gonna be, to get the outcome you want for the price that you're paying, you don't know with AI in many cases.

对我来说，这是埃森哲在反向定位，意思是：我们实际上可以为你想要的结果给出一个价格。

To me, this is counter positioning for Accenture, saying, we can actually give you a price for the outcome that you want.

这对我来说意义重大，而且从数字上也能看出来，这正是客户们所签约的。

That to me is huge, and it speaks in the numbers here, that is what its customers are signing up for.

所以我只能谈谈一些内幕消息，当然那些决定不是我做的，但你知道，我们在房间里都有发言权，我可以告诉你我当时的一些想法，而且我觉得这些问题对投资者来说仍然值得问。

So I can only speak kind of hidden gems, and I certainly wasn't making those decisions, but you know, we're all voices in the room, and I can tell you kind of what I was thinking at the time, and I think it's still good questions for investors to ask.

我从来没觉得埃森哲会倒闭。

I mean, I never thought Accenture was going out of business.

但有些较小的咨询公司，我确实担心。

Some of these smaller consulting firms, I worry about.

但问题还是：从现在开始，它会不会是一笔好投资，能不能跑赢市场？

But again, the question is, will it be a good investment, a market beater from here?

这里有几件事值得考虑。

A couple of things to think about here.

首先，他们最大的开支是人才。

For one, their biggest expense is talent.

正如泰勒所说，这是一门非常轻资产的生意，但他们的产品就是人才。

This is, as Tyler says, a very asset light business, but their product is their talent.

在大部分历史中，他们一直在和其他MBA来源竞争商学院毕业生。

For most of their history, they've competed for business school graduates against other MBA sources.

现在他们需要程序员，需要AI人才。

Now they need coders, they need AI talent.

在某种程度上，我认为他们并不是真的在跟扎克伯格竞争那些1.5亿美元的薪酬包，但他们原材料的成本在上升。

And to some extent, I don't think they're really competing against Zuckerberg for those $150,000,000 pay packages, but the cost of their raw material is going up.

另一方面，他们一直是按小时计费的。

On the other side, they've always billed by the hour.

随着他们把AI融入业务，至少有一种情况是，如果AI能像我们希望的那样发挥作用，所需的工作时间就会减少。

As they work AI into their business, there's a case at least that if AI does what we hope it does, the hours needed go down.

那么这是否会给收入带来下行压力呢？

And so does that put downward pressure on revenue?

再加上一个简单的事实，你看，AI正在让编程变得普及化。

Couple that with the simple fact that look, AI is democratizing coding.

我不认为它会消除在很多大项目中对合伙人的需求，但公司内部能做的事情和聘请顾问之间，是否已经出现了微妙的变化？

I don't think it eliminates the need for a partner in a lot of these big things, but is there even a subtle shift in what companies can do in house versus hiring a consultant?

而这种微妙的变化，是不是就是成为市场赢家和仅仅维持运营、保持灯光亮着但缺乏增长故事之间的区别？

And is that subtle shift the difference between being a market beater and just a running a mill or keeping the lights on, but it's not a great growth story?

我觉得这些问题仍然悬而未决，如果我要趁这次下跌买入，我会考虑这些方面。

I think those questions are still very much out there, and those would be how I would be thinking if I was gonna buy this dip.

对，确实有三四个行业，AI问题是最关键的问题。

Yeah, there's like three or four industries specifically where the AI question is the biggest question out there.

其中一些就像，是的。

Some of them are like, yeah.

也许吧。

Maybe.

而且，你知道，这……

And, you know, it's...

这几乎感觉就像……

It almost just feels like a...

一个很模糊的问题。

An obscure question at this point.

但是，AI在咨询行业，比如埃森哲、高德纳这类公司，会是这些企业面临的最大挑战之一，也是投资者未来最关心的问题。

But, AI related to consulting in the Accenture, in the Gartner type of world, it is gonna be one of the most challenging, things for these businesses and the biggest question for investors going forward.

所以这绝对是我们想跟进的事情。

So it's definitely something we wanna follow-up on.

休息之后，我们要聊聊私募市场。

Coming up after the break, we're gonna talk about private markets.

你刚发现你的销售团队可能完不成业绩目标。

You just found out that your sales team is at risk of missing quota.

别慌。

Don't panic.

直接问Rippling AI就行。

Just ask Rippling AI.

因为它基于你实时的人员和业务数据，Rippling AI 可以从 Rippling 和 Salesforce 中提取指标，生成一个适合会议使用的仪表盘，显示配额完成情况、人员编制计划以及各地区的月度收入与配额对比。

Since it's built on your real time people and business data, Rippling AI can pull metrics from Rippling and Salesforce into a meeting ready dashboard showing quota attainment, headcount plan, and monthly revenue to quota by region.

几秒钟内，你就能清楚看到配额风险背后的原因，并在错过目标之前解决它。

In seconds, you'll see exactly what's behind your quota risk and fix it before it's missed.

问题解决了，行动完成了，危机化解了。

Question answered, action taken, Crisis averted.

当你有关键业务问题需要答案时，不要只是提交工单，然后等上几周才能拿到过时的报告。

When you have critical business questions that need answers, don't just file a ticket and wait weeks for an outdated report.

描述你的需求，让 Rippling AI 根据你实时的人员和业务数据立即构建解决方案。

Describe what you need and have Rippling AI build it instantly from your live people and business data.

无论是带有详细图表的仪表盘，还是带有正确触发器、条件和审批的自动化工作流。

Whether it's a dashboard with detailed charts or automated workflows with the right triggers, conditions, and approvals.

准备好掌控你的业务了吗？

Ready to rule your business?

前往 rippling.ai/fool，获取唯一能让你全面了解情况并在整个组织中执行复杂操作的 AI。

Head to rippling.ai/fool to get the only AI built to give you full visibility and take complex actions across your entire organization.

网址是 rippling.ai/fool。

That's rippling.ai/fool.

今天就注册，获取独家访问权限。

Sign up for exclusive access today.

rippling.ai/fool。

Rippling.ai/fool.

嘿。

Hey.

我是《科技新闻周刊》的 Micah Sergeant。

It's Micah Sergeant from Tech News Weekly.

在本周的节目中，我和《The Verge》的 Jennifer Patisson Toohey 聊了聊 Meta 的 180 亿美元和解案，以及他们通过扣留部分资金来牵制 TikTok 和 YouTube 的事情。

And on this week's show, I spoke with Jennifer Patisson Toohey of The Verge about Meta having an $18,000,000,000 settlement and also sort of holding TikTok and YouTube hostage through some of that money being withheld.

这挺疯狂的。

It's pretty wild.

我们还聊了聊令人惊叹的 cyberdeck 热潮，以及 Raspberry Pi 终于开始发力了。另外，Dee Griffin Jones 也加入了我们，带我们回顾了苹果的硬件发布，包括 M5 和 M6 芯片、新款 Mac Studio、新款 Mac Mini，还预告了九月份即将举行的 iPhone 发布会。

We also talk about the incredible cyberdeck craze and how Raspberry Pi is finally leaning in, and Dee Griffin Jones joins us to walk us through Apple's hardware announcements, the m five and m six chips, its new Mac Studio, new Mac Mini, and then gives us a preview of the upcoming iPhone event in September.

如果你想订阅《科技周刊》，只需在你获取播客的任何地方搜索“Tech News Weekly”，或者前往Twitter tv/tnw。

If you would like to subscribe to Tech Weekly, just search for Tech News Weekly wherever you get your podcasts or head to Twitter tv/tnw.

过去几年里，一直有一种渐进的声音，就是私人资产、私人资本、私人股权、私人信贷，不管你怎么划分，都在试图成为个人投资者选择的一部分，而不仅仅是投资股票、债券、房地产，随便你怎么分类。

There has been a gradual drumbeat over the past couple of years where private assets, private capital, private equity, private credit, however you wanna carve it up, has been trying to become a part of the individual investor's choices versus just going into stocks, just going into bonds, real estate, however you want to carve it out.

已经有一些提案允许401k计划中涉及私募股权交易。

There has been proposals to allow private equity deals in 401ks.

最近华尔街甚至有一些评论文章怀念养老金的时代，因为养老金管理者更愿意接受私人资本或私人资产，以及一些比较刺激的东西，我记得我看到过的术语是相对于公开交易的东西，我们可以放进401k里的。

There's even been some think pieces lately on Wall Street opining for the days of pensions again, because pension, managers were more willing to take on private capital or private assets, and kind of spicy things, I think was the term that I I saw relative to publicly traded things that we can put in our 401s.

而昨天有一些关于这个的大新闻，投资者真的需要认真考虑，因为华尔街整体上会施加很大压力，推动私人资产进入人们的投资组合。

And yesterday there was some big news about this, and it's really important that investors think about this because there's going to be a lot of pressure from Wall Street in general on getting private assets into people's portfolios.

所以有一些新的SEC规则，主要有三条，我们会逐一讨论，各位，你们觉得哪些是好的，哪些是坏的，或者这些规则如何划分。

And so there were some new SEC rules, and there were three core ones, and we're going to kind of go through them guys, and what you think is the good, the bad, or how these kind of carve out.

基本上就是三条。

There was basically three of them.

其中一条是，他们提高了注册投资顾问可以收取的业绩费的上限。

One of them was is that they have upped the upper limit of a performance fee that a registered investment advisor can get.

我觉得这个上限已经提高到大约20%，这基本上和我们在对冲基金、共同基金以及过去那些日子里常见的“2%管理费加20%业绩提成”的收费结构差不多。

I think it's gone up to something like 20%, which is more or less par for the course for what that two and twenty hedge fund fee structure that we normally see at hedge funds, mutual funds, days of yore, things like that.

另一个变化是，成为合格投资者的途径会有新的方式。

The other one was there are gonna be new ways to become an accredited investor.

不再仅仅看你有多少钱或者你赚多少钱，而是会有……

Instead of just being how much money you have or how much money income you're making, there's going...

他们想通过一些专业执照来证明你有能力成为合格投资者。

They wanna look at some professional licenses as a way to show competence to be an accredited investor.

最后一项是给私募基金在赎回方面更多的灵活性，比如不需要在某个季度提供那么多赎回机会，给他们更多的操作空间。

And the last one is giving more flexibility to private funds for redemptions related to not having to give out so many on a certain quarter, giving them a little bit more flexibility there.

这些规则在我看来，很大程度上是在鼓励华尔街尽力把散户投资者推到前台来。

These rules to me seem a lot like incenting Wall Street to go out of their way to bring retail investors to the fore here.

我有些想法，但我也想听听你们的意见。

So I have some thoughts, but I want to get your guys' as well.

看看所有这些，这些提议对个人投资者来说是不是净好处，还是说这更像是一种偏向企业和华尔街的举措？

Looking at all of these things, are these proposals net benefits to individual investors, or is this kind of a pro business, pro Wall Street sort of move?

听着，泰勒，这真的不是我的专长，我不好说这对普通老百姓或者金融专业人士是不是净收益。

Look, Tyler, this isn't really my wheelhouse to say whether or not it's a net benefit for your regular Joe or for the financial professionals out there.

我要说的是，我百分之百赞成把这里的规则从基于财富的系统改成基于知识的系统。

What I will say, I'm 100% in favor of changing the rules here from going from a wealth based system to a knowledge based system.

这对我来说非常合理。

That to me makes a ton of sense.

也许这是我的政治倾向，我不想让华盛顿告诉我该怎么做，我自己会收集雨水，谢谢，但我觉得我们在节目里经常讨论的是，财务是个人的事情。

Now, maybe it's my political leanings where I don't want Washington telling me what to do, I'll collect my own rainwater, thank you, but I think that what we talk about a lot on this show is that finances are personal.

有很多原因可能导致某人的银行账户达不到政府要求的门槛，无法投资这些私营公司，而这些个人原因很重要。

There are a number of reasons why somebody's bank account might not meet the threshold that the government requires to be able to invest in these private companies, and those individual reasons matter.

理论上，你可以有一个人，因为各种原因相当富有，但也很无知，却被允许做这些事情，这会对他有害，反之亦然。

You can have, in theory, someone who is quite wealthy for a variety of reasons, and quite ignorant, who is allowed to do these things, and it's going to be to their harm, and vice versa.

你可以有一个人，银行账户不太够格，但实际上他很聪明，他应该能够通过投资各种目前无法接触到的其他选项来增长财富。

You can have someone whose bank account doesn't quite measure up, but really they are a sharp cookie, and they should be able to grow their wealth by investing in a variety of other options that aren't available to them today.

所以，我赞成改变这些规则。

So, I'm in favor of changing these rules.

如果一个人能证明自己有能力投资这些公司，就应该允许他们这么做。

If someone can demonstrate the competency to be able to invest in these companies, they should be allowed.

这是我的看法。

That's my view.

你说的这些我完全同意。

I don't disagree with any of that.

我还是觉得这很大程度上是偏向华尔街的，不过好消息是，懂行的人会有机会。

I still think this is very much a pro Wall Street, and look, the good news is people who know what they're doing will get a chance.

坏消息是，人非常非常不擅长评估自己的能力。

The bad news is, is that human beings are very, very bad at assessing their own competence.

所以这里会有很多痛苦。

And so there is going to be a lot of pain here.

这……

This is...

我不想完全愤世嫉俗地说这是私人市场的救市，但确实感觉最终效果只是增加了这些项目底部可以接的盘的数量。

I don't want be full on cynical and say this is a private markets bailout, but it does feel like the net effect is going to be just adding to the number of bags that are available to fill at the bottom of these things.

所有东西都会以有机会投资SpaceX或OpenAI为卖点来推销。

Everything is going to be marketed on the chance to get into SpaceX or OpenAI.

对，但别忘了，每有一个这样的成功案例，至少就有一个Theranos或WeWork。

And yeah, but remember for every one of those, there's at least a Theranos or WeWork.

猜猜散户会碰上哪种，尤其是在这些由经理人分配资金的基金里。

Guess which one retail is going to get, especially in these funds where the managers are allocating for it.

所以，乔恩说得对。

So yes, Jon is right.

旧规则确实过时了，需要现代化，但我认为这里会有很多伤害，比如说什么私人资本在增长，我们需要更多资金来支持它。

The old rules are outdated and need modernizing, but I think that there's a lot of harm coming here of saying that like, look, private capital's growing, we need more capital to fund it.

嘿，我知道有一大笔钱，你们可能会喜欢。

Hey, I know a big pot of money that you guys would probably like.

这就是现在的情况。

That's what's going on here.

我觉得，你们在外面要小心点。

I think, you know, just be careful out there.

我确实能理解那种更多私人资本的情况……

I can certainly sympathize with that more private...

嗯，我在私人资本上投入了更多钱，因为那里才是增长所在。

Well, I have more money into the private capital and that's where the growth is.

我……

I...

你知道，我最近作为公开……作为公开股票投资者，一个让我很沮丧的地方是……

You know, one of my frustrations recently as a as a public...

那些公司，比如OpenAI和SpaceX，要等多久才能上市啊。

Publicly traded stock investor is how long it's taking for those, oh, OpenAI and the spacecom...

SpaceX这些公司上市。

SpaceX companies to go public.

你知道，我们现在听到什么M轮融资，十二轮、十三轮私募融资。

You know, we hear things now like series m funding rounds, you know, twelve, thirteen private funding rounds.

这种情形我们几十年都没见过了。

We haven't seen this in decades.

我，我……

I I...

这……

It...

我们要拿它和那些我们当作个人投资者财富创造典范的公司对比，比如亚马逊、奈飞，甚至特斯拉。

We're gonna contrast that with the the companies that we use as, like, the great examples of wealth creation for individual investors, the AMZN's, the Netflix's, even even Tesla.

它们之所以能为像我们这样的个人投资者创造财富，是因为它们上市时市值相对于现在来说非常小。

They were able for individual investors like us to create wealth because they went public at miniscule market caps relative to what they are today.

而SpaceX和那些公司上市时估值已经达到数万亿美元。

Whereas you have the SpaceX and the ALups are all going public at multitrillion dollar valuations.

公开股票投资者没有机会看到这些公司在公开市场上成长。

Public stock investors aren't getting these opportunities to watch this thing grow up in the public markets.

他们只是，你知道，说白了，就是给前面那15个私人投资者提供退出流动性。

They're just, you know, to to lose point, just kind of giving the exit liquidity for the 15 private investors before them.

我真的很讨厌这种局面。

I really hate this dynamic.

我理解为什么会这样，越来越多的资金涌入私人资本。

I get why it's happening, more and more money's rushing into private capital.

不幸的是，我觉得这已经回不去了。

I don't think there's any going back, unfortunately.

我们不可能把这些公司都重新拉回公开市场。

It's not like we're going to reclaim all these companies back into the public markets.

不过，我想看到的是，如果这些变化意味着像安德森·霍洛维茨这样的公司真的会建立基金，把散户投资者也带进来，我想我可以暂时接受，因为如果没有这个，我们所有人都只能被困在那种局面里，比如‘嘿，你想要这个估值五万亿美元的东西吗？因为我们已经进行了17轮融资了。’

What I would like to see though is if these changes means like the Androsine Horowitz's of the world will actually build funds that bring retail investors along, I think I can tentatively get on board, because without it, we're all just going to be stuck, Hey, do you want this thing at a valuation of $5,000,000,000,000 because we've already had 17 funding rounds?

那听起来就没那么有吸引力了。

That seems much less appealing.

所以，私人市场因为种种原因，投资起来更加困难。

So the private markets are a harder, harder place to invest for a myriad of reasons.

就像你说的，卢，有些事情确实更不透明。

Like you said, Lou, some of the things are a little bit more opaque.

所以，当你们在考虑这个问题的时候，你们会怎么……

So as you guys are thinking about this, what are...

有什么建议吗？

What is some advice?

那我先问问你，卢。

And I'll I'll I'll go to you first, Lou.

对于那些第一次考虑投资私募资产的人，你会给出什么建议？

What is advice you'd give to investors looking at private assets, perhaps for the first time?

嗯，关于你刚才说的，有两点，我觉得都和这个建议有关。

Well, two points on what you said, and I think they both relate to the advice.

首先，乔恩，我不想这么说，但在这种情况下，我们需要的是更多的监管，而不是更少，因为我担心的是，事情不会变成这样——我们把所有东西都打包成一个基金。

For one, Jon, I hate to do this to you, but if in this world we need more regulation, not yet less, because my fear is is that it's not going to be like, let's make a fund of all these things.

让我们把那些我们长期合作、并且想从他们那里募集未来资金的有限合伙人，把好的交易给他们，然后把剩下的给散户。

Let's give our limited partners that we have long term relationships with and we're trying to recruit future millions from, let's give them the good deals and give retail the rest.

我觉得我们需要某种方式来阻止这种情况。

And I think we need some way to stop that.

其次，我就像那个站在草坪上的老人，但确实，我们错过了巨大的收益，我也喜欢巨大的收益，但可以说，我们也因此避免了很多风险，不用那么早进入。

Secondly, this is the old man on the lawn here, but yes, we miss out on the mega gains and I love the mega gains, but arguably we're also shielded from a lot of risk not getting in that early.

因为每有一个亚马逊，就有很多公司没能成为那样。

Because for every Amazon, again, there are a lot of companies that didn't become that.

我不太确定，对于普通投资者来说，不接触早期公司，而是专注于那些能长期每年稳定增长10%到15%的公司，是不是更好。

I am not convinced that for the average investor, isn't better to not have access to early stage companies, but to just focus on solid 10 to 15% a year over time companies.

如果你真的想参与进来，就要小心你买的是什么。

If you do want to get involved here, just be careful what you buy.

如果是基金，要仔细看看这个基金是怎么分配的。

Just look carefully if it's a fund, how this fund is being allocated.

如果是单个项目，就一个一个地看。

If it's individual deals, look at it on a deal by deal basis.

我不想这么悲观，但我就是觉得，最好的交易不会落到那些不是大鲸鱼的人手里。

I hate to be so cynical, but I just don't think it's gonna be the non whales that are getting the best deals here.

我想补充一点，卢，如果是私募交易，如果我们真的到了那种情况，你听节目的时候，你有机会投资一家还很小、还没上市的公司，记住，信息披露的规则是不同的。

The only thing I'd add to that, Lou, is with a private deal, if, I mean, if we do wind up in that place where you are listening to the show and you're allowed to invest in a company that is still a small private company, remember that disclosure rules are different.

你不会有像上市公司那样多的信息，这一点非常重要。

You don't have all of the information that you have with a publicly traded company, and that is incredibly important.

说到底，我们就是评估企业的人。

We are, at the end of the day, business evaluators.

我们买的是企业。

We are buying businesses.

我们买的不是股票代码，而投资私营公司时，你能用来评估企业质量的信息更少，所以在这个领域行动时要记住这一点。

We are not buying tickers, and you have less information to evaluate the quality of a business with a private company, and so keep that in consideration when you're moving in this space.

我还想补充一点乔恩刚才提到的，因为不仅信息更不透明，而且对于私人资产来说，条款清单也非常重要。

I do wanna add one extra layer to what Jon was mentioning there too, because not only is it slightly more opaque, one of the things that's also very important with private assets is the term sheet.

这在公开交易的股票中我们不太会讨论，因为你知道，公开交易股票的所有权是相当明确、监管良好的。

That's something we don't really talk about with publicly traded stocks because you know, the ownership of publicly traded stocks is pretty established, pretty well regulated.

条款也基本固定。

The terms are pretty well set.

你在券商那里买就行了。

You buy them on a brokerage.

但如果你买的是私人资产，它们往往附带一些条款，这些条款对你作为投资者可能有利也可能不利。

If you're buying private assets, they often come with terms that can be good or detrimental to who you are as the investor.

所以它们可能比公开交易的股票要定制化得多。

So they they can be much more bespoke than what we see in in publicly traded equities.

所以可能愿意，你知道，拿出铅笔，对条款清单做比平时对公开交易股票更多的尽职调查。

So might be willing to, you know, pull out a pencil and do a little bit more extra due diligence on term sheets than you normally would with publicly traded equities.

休息之后，我们要进入邮件袋环节。

Coming up after the break, we're gonna hit the mail bag.

每周三，我们在Windows周刊上聊微软。

Every Wednesday, we talk Microsoft on Windows weekly.

嗨。

Hi.

我是Leo Laporte，邀请你本周加入我和Paul Therott、Richard Campbell，一起讨论Sonos的回归。

This is Leo Laporte inviting you to join me, Paul Therott, Richard Campbell this week as we talk about the return of Sonos.

但你会再买一个Sonos音箱吗？

But will you buy another Sonos speaker?

Paul说他会。

Paul says he's gonna.

Windows 11 版本 26H2 进入发布预览阶段，IFA 正在柏林举行。

Windows 11 version 26 h two goes to release preview, and EEFA is underway in Berlin.

我们会聊聊一些新笔记本电脑，包括 RTX Spark。

We'll talk about some new laptops, including the RTX Spark.

Windows Weekly。

Windows weekly.

你可以在 twit.tv/ww 以及所有播客平台上找到它。

You'll find it at twit.tv/ww and wherever you get your podcasts.

每周日，我们都会在《本周科技》中回顾本周的科技新闻。

Every Sunday, we cover the week's tech news on This Week in Tech.

大家好。

Hi.

我是 TWIT 播客网络的 Leo Laporte，欢迎你和 Jacob Ward、Molly White 以及 Harry McCracken 一起，聊聊针对 Meta 的重大诉讼的结束，以及这对我们意味着什么。

This is Leo Laporte from the TWIT Podcasting Network inviting you to join me with Jacob Ward, Molly White, and Harry McCracken as we talk about the end of the big lawsuit against Meta and what it means for us.

NVIDIA 花了很多钱想进入 AI 软件领域，还有关于 Hugging Face 攻击的详细消息。

NVIDIA spending lots of money trying to get into the AI software game and real details on that hugging face attack.

你们听到的内容绝对会惊掉下巴。

What you hear will shock you.

去 twit.tv 收听，或者在你常用的播客平台也能找到我们。

You'll find it at twit.tv and wherever you get your podcasts.

大家好。

Hey, everyone.

如果你想让自己的邮件在节目中被朗读，可以发邮件到 podcasts@fool.com。

If you wanna get your email read on air, email us at podcasts@fool.com.

是带复数s的podcast。

That's podcast with an s.

我也在节目简介里留了邮箱。

I've also left the email in the show description.

今天的问题来自Barry。

Today's question comes from Barry.

他说，大家好，团队。

It says, hi, team.

很喜欢这个播客。

Love the podcast.

大约六年前开始投资，一直很纠结要不要坚持持有20到30只股票的建议。

Took up investing about six years ago and wondered on a lot on a lot on advice of sticking to 20 to 30 stocks.

你会不会把这看作核心持仓，占你投资组合的90%，然后留出10...

Would you consider this more of your core holdings of where 90% of your portfolio, and then allow 10...

5%到10%给更投机性的股票，甚至可能是加密货币。

Five to 10% to be more speculative stocks, maybe even crypto.

我们刚刚聊过私人资产，你知道的，那些更刺激的东西，如果你愿意这么说的话。

We just had a conversation about private assets, you know, the the spicier things, I guess, if you will.

这些年来我持有一些小规模的投机性资产，并且已经将可观的收益转入了我的前八大持仓。

I've had some small speculative items over the years and have made significant gains into my top eight holdings.

那会对我跑赢市场有很大帮助。

That would have helped me a lot towards beating the market.

再次感谢，Barry。

Thanks again, Barry.

所以，各位，当我们考虑投资组合构建时，显然，就像我们说的，我们不能在这里提供个性化建议，所以我们不会直接针对你的投资组合来说，Barry。

So guys, when we think about when we think about portfolio construction, and obviously, as we say, we cannot give personalized advice here, so we're not gonna be speaking directly to your portfolio, Barry.

但我们能做的是，各位，当你们考虑自己的投资组合时，你们会把多少比例分配给那些刺激的东西，比如投机性股票、加密货币、微型股，甚至可能是一两项私人资产？

But one of the things we can do is, guys, when you think about your portfolios personally, how much do you allocate to that, you know, the spicy stuff, the speculative stocks, the crypto, the micro caps, maybe even a couple private assets or two?

说到刺激的东西，我在2020到2021年的股市上涨期间，确实有一些更刺激的投资，最后归零了，我觉得这让我对过度投机有了一些教训，所以现在我的投资组合里这类东西很少，可能只有一两个仓位，我觉得这要么是赚大钱，要么就是全亏。但关于20到30只股票的问题，如果这是来自Motley Fool的建议，记住那是普遍性建议，而且建议一直是至少25只。

Well, as far as the spicy stuff, I mean, I I got into gestion during the twenty twenty, twenty twenty one stock rally, I actually had some spicier investments that went to zero, and I think that cured me a little bit from taking on too much speculation, so it's very low in my portfolio, maybe only one or two positions, I would say, this is a home run or nothing kind of a deal, but to the point with the question on 20 to 30 stocks, if that is coming from perhaps Motley Fool literature, remember that that is, excuse me, that is generalized advice, and the advice was always at least 25.

所以，这并不排除投资组合中有一部分，比如5%到10%，像你提到的，用于稍微投机一些，而大部分投资组合由二三十个核心仓位支撑。

And so, that does not preclude having a part of the portfolio that was for maybe 5%, 10%, as you point out, maybe for a little bit more speculation where the vast majority of the portfolio is upheld with maybe twenty, thirty core positions.

现在，我要说的是，我们的联合创始人Tom Gardner最近甚至把建议提高到了至少50只股票，作为一种分散投资的方式。

Now, I will say that our co founder, Tom Gardner, has actually revised us even higher recently saying, maybe you want to get to at least 50 stocks in your portfolio as kind of a way to diversify.

背后的想法是，现在事情变化太快，很难判断未来五到十年哪些股票会表现最好，所以你需要更多分散，而不是更少。

And the thinking behind that is that things are being disrupted so quickly that it's even harder to be able to tell which stocks are going to be the best performers over the next five to ten years, and so you want to diversify more, not less.

这总是关于核心部分，我们试图达到最低分散目标，但这并不排除，像你指出的，你投资组合中有些部分可能投到加密货币，可能是私人投资，我不知道你的具体情况，因人而异，但基本上，这是我们试图达到的最低标准。

Now, that is always talking about the core, like we're trying as a minimum diversification goal, but that does not preclude, as you point out, having some parts of your portfolio, maybe you're putting it towards crypto, maybe it's private investment, I don't know what your case may be, your mileage may vary, but yeah, kind of a bare minimum, this is what we're trying to get through, get to.

现在，就我个人而言，我在买入时分散，但可能在持有时集中，因为统计告诉我们，实际上只有很小比例的股票会成为大赢家，你真的要尽可能持有那些股票，只要你还看到它们有光明的未来，所以我在顶部相当集中，但在底部建立更大仓位时我会分散。

Now, will say for me personally, that I diversify in the buying, but perhaps I concentrate in the holding, because statistics tell us that actually a fairly small percentage of stocks wind up being your big time winners, and really, you wanna hold onto those as as much as you can, as much as you still see a bright future ahead, and so I'm pretty concentrated at the top, but I diversify as I'm building out that larger position in stocks on the bottom.

所以我就让那些赢家继续涨，让它们自然发展。

And so I just kinda let the winters rise and allow that to take its place.

这个问题没有标准答案，但我支持巴里的观点。

There's no one size answer here, but I'm team Barry.

我明白你的意思，巴里。

So I get what you're saying, Barry.

我的投资组合里有一个核心组，大约20只股票，它们比较稳健可靠，排在组合的前面，说实话，光靠它们就足够退休了。

I have a core group of about 20 stocks that are kind of boring and reliable at the top of my portfolio, and they should honestly be enough to retire on.

然后我还有大约50到60只股票，都是些小仓位，纯粹是投机性的。

And then I have about 50 or 60 stocks that are just smaller positions that are just rampant speculation regard.

所以如果你能承受这些风险，而且核心部分已经安排好了，

In So if you can stomach that and you have the core taken care of,

不会让你的退休计划或长期计划面临风险，我个人对你说的这些没有意见。

so you're not putting your retirement at risk or long term plans at risk, I personally have no problem with what you're talking about.

我们经常讨论这些问题，也收到很多关于如何配置投资组合的问题，比如多少比例用于投机，多少用于小盘股，多少用于大趋势，或者在任何时候应该保留多少现金。

We get into these conversations a lot over time, and we get a lot of questions about how to allocate portfolios, how much to speculative stuff, how much to nano caps, how much to the big trends, or how much do I allot in cash in any given moment?

虽然我们总说想给出注册投资顾问或者教科书式的注册会计师答案，但很多这些决定其实非常情绪化，因为我们处理的是自己的钱。

As much as we say we want to give the registered investment advisor or the text book CPA answer to these, a lot of these things are very emotional decisions because we're handling our personal money.

我们又不是专业的资金管理人，所以很多问题归根结底是你作为投资者觉得什么舒服，什么适合你。

It's not like we are all money managers, and so a lot of this comes down to what you as an investor are comfortable with, what works for you.

你知道，卢的投资组合和我的很不一样。

You know, Lou's portfolio is very different from mine.

我倾向于少做一些投机性的仓位。

I tend to take less speculative positions.

我更喜欢那种稳扎稳打……

I like to be a little bit more of a slugging...

抱歉，我是说更看重命中率，而不是长打率。

Or sorry, a a batting average guy than a slugging percentage kind of guy.

所以像这样的东西是会变化的。

So things like this are gonna change.

最重要的是什么适合你。

Matters more than anything else is what works for you.

我知道这有时候听起来有点让人不满足，但投资的好处是，随着年复一年的积累，你会逐渐磨练出这项技能。

I know that can sometimes seem a little unsatisfying, but the nice thing about investing is over the years and years, you will hone that skill.

你不仅会成为一个更好的投资者，还会了解自己擅长什么、不擅长什么。

You not only will you become a better investor, but you'll also learn what you are good at versus what you're bad at.

这些方面最终都会反映在你的投资组合里。

And these sort of these sort of things will be reflected in your portfolio.

和往常一样，节目中的嘉宾可能对他们谈论的股票有利益关系，而Motley Fool也可能有正式的推荐或反对意见。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以不要仅仅根据你听到的内容就买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容都遵循Motley Fool的编辑标准，并且未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告是赞助内容，仅供参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provide for informational purposes only.

要查看我们的完整广告披露，请查看我们的节目笔记。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢我们的制作人丹·博伊德以及The Motley Fool团队的其他成员。

Thanks to our producer Dan Boyd and the rest of The Motley Fool team.

对于乔恩、卢和我来说，感谢大家的收听，我们很快再聊。

For Jon, Lou, and myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.