RocketLab的Neutron更新、On Holdings财报以及eVTOL竞争升温

RocketLab的投资者们还在等着发射呢。

RocketLab investors are still waiting on the pad.

Motley Fool的隐藏宝藏投资节目现在开始。

Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.

欢迎收听Motley Fool的隐藏宝藏投资节目。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是你们的主持人，泰勒·克劳。

I'm your host, Tyler Crowe.

今天和我一起的是长期为Fool撰稿的特拉维斯·霍姆和马特·弗兰克尔。

And today, I'm joined by long time Fool contributors, Travis Hoium and Matt Frankel.

现在有点像是夏末的忙乱，大家忙着抓住最后的假期，孩子们也快开学了。

A little bit of a end of the summer sort of mix up as everyone gets those last minute vacations and before kids go back to school.

财报还在陆续出来。

So earnings are still coming in.

虽然财报季接近尾声，但还是有几家公司的财报要发布。

It's we're starting to wind down the earning season, but we still got a couple coming online.

ON Holdings发布了财报。

We had ON Holdings report.

我们要聊聊电动垂直起降行业目前的状况，因为最近这行动作挺多的。

Gonna talk about the state of the electric vertical takeoff and landing industry because there's been a lot of moves lately.

不过今天咱们先从RocketLab的财报说起，虽然它是昨天发布的，但显然昨天没时间细聊。

But we're gonna start today with RocketLab's earnings, which came in yesterday, but obviously didn't get a chance to talk about it yesterday.

在财报发布后录制节目时，RocketLab的股价小幅下跌了大约2%。

Shares of RocketLab are down a little bit, about 2% as we're taping after earnings.

不过说真的，财报并不是大家最关心的话题。

But let's be real, earnings wasn't really the topic du jour.

我仔细看了财报电话会议的记录，里面提到“中子”这个词多达61次。

I went through the earnings call transcript and the word Neutron appeared in the conference call 61 times.

他们刚收购的铱星公司被提到了30次，而真正用来赚钱的电子号火箭只出现了17次。

Iridium, which is the acquisition it just made, came up 30 times and only 17 times for Electron, you know, the rocket they're actually used to generate those earnings.

两位，你们在报告里看到了什么？有什么反应吗？

So guys, what did you see in the report and what were some of your reactions?

我今天在这儿是因为我家孩子今天开学了。

I'm here because my kids started school today.

我就直接说了吧。

I'll I'll go ahead and say that.

南方这边开学早。

We start early in the South.

RocketLab的业绩，就像你说的，真正的看点不是现在的营收和盈利，但咱们还是先从这儿说起。

RocketLab's numbers like you said, this real story is not the current revenue and the current profitability, but let's start there.

RocketLab的营收数据确实很亮眼。

So RocketLab's numbers were strong on the top line.

收入比预期稍微高一点。

Revenue was a little more than expected.

积压订单增长远超预期，同比翻了一倍多。

The backlog grew a lot faster than expected, more than doubling year over year.

但利润端没达到预期。

The bottom line missed.

亏损比投资者预期的还要大一些，这点很重要，因为公司目前还没有盈利。

It was a little bit of a wider loss than investors had expected, and that matters because the company is not profitable yet.

投资者对他们近期能否实现盈利持怀疑态度。

Investors are skeptical about their near term path to profitability.

这家公司市值大约500亿美元，所以比预期更快的烧钱速度确实是投资者担心的理由，特别是考虑到Neutron在电话会议上出现了61次，你刚才说得很对。

This is a company that has a roughly $50,000,000,000 market cap, so a larger than expected cash burn is justifiably a concern for investors, and that's especially considering that the Neutron, which you correctly mentioned, appeared 61 times in the conference call.

它还没发射升空。

It still hasn't gotten off the ground.

投资者想知道，他们能否在不追加大量资金的情况下实现盈利。

Investors wanna know that they're gonna get the profitability without having to raise a ton more capital at this point.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得这个财报季我们已经反复看到这样的情况了。

I think this is a story that we've seen over and over again this earning season.

预期是什么，现实又是什么？

What is expectations and then what's reality?

如果你退一步看看RocketLab，过去三年股价涨了1100%。

If you actually just take a step back and look at RocketLab, the stock's up 1100% over the past three years.

所以表现非常惊人。

So it's been a phenomenal run.

我们不要因为一天的表现就过于乐观或悲观。

Let's not take one day as too much of a positive or a negative.

但是，你知道，Matt提到了500亿美元的市值和23.6亿美元的积压订单。

But, you know, Matt mentioned $50,000,000,000 market cap, $2,360,000,000 in backlog.

那只是市值的一小部分。

That is a very small fraction of that market cap.

所以投资者的期望非常高。

So investors have very high expectations.

任何一点小问题，比如‘我们可能会有点延迟’，市场就会猛烈打压。

Any sort of blip in, you know what, we may be a little bit delayed has been just hammered by the market.

所以，我其实有点惊讶市场没有反应更负面，因为这是一个长期增长的故事，你知道，任何推迟收入的事情都会是负面的，但他们真的在努力说服投资者，他们谈论这些下一代产品、收购Iridium的原因，是因为他们想巩固商业模式，实现垂直整合，展示他们能够长期创造价值。

So I'm I'm actually a little bit surprised that the market's not reacting a little bit more negatively since this is such a long term growth story, you know, anything that pushes that revenue out is gonna be a negative, but they're really trying to convince investors the reason that they're talking about these next generation products, about their acquisition of Iridium is because they're trying to solidify that business model and sort of vertically integrate, show that they're gonna be able to generate that value long term.

所以他们还是在努力说服投资者。

So it's still they're still trying to convince investors.

今天市场反应这么平淡，确实有点让人意外。

It's a little bit surprising that it's just a little bit of a ho reaction from the market today.

铱星这笔交易有点像他们做的一种投资，但与此同时，铱星本身是个能产生现金流的业务。

The Iridium deal is like a what we can be sort of investment that they're making, but at the same time, Iridium is a cash generative business.

所以你可以用它来缓解公司其他业务带来的现金消耗。

So you can kind of stem the cash burn that's been having for the rest of the business.

你可以用这笔钱来稍微稳固一下资产负债表。

You can use that to kind of maybe shore up the balance sheet a little bit.

虽然不能解决所有问题，但肯定能对目前的情况起到很好的缓解作用。

It's not going to solve all those problems, but it's certainly going be a nice solve for what we've seen so far.

现在我们把视野放宽一点，因为航天行业最近发生了一些关键的事情。

Now, let's broaden out the lens a little bit here because there's some key things that have been happening in the space industry.

我甚至还没提到SpaceX上市，大家都在聊航天，但最近航天领域有很多值得关注的趋势，这也是为什么大家对投资航天这么兴奋的原因之一。

And I'm not even mentioning like, yeah, SpaceX did an IPO and everyone's been talking about space, but there's a lot of like trends to watch in space recently, and it's part of the reason why people are so excited about investing in space.

我们有“金穹顶”计划，这是五角大楼在太空国防领域的一项重大投资重点。

We've got the Golden Dome, this major defense space investment priority at Pentagon.

还有新的国际空间站，以及大量正在进行的商业活动。

We've got a new international space station, and then just a lot of commercial interests going on.

所以考虑到所有这些情况，是的，目前太空行业的投资已经被仔细梳理过了，但是……

So with all of this in mind, and yes, the space industry is kind of combed over in terms of investment at this point, but

你在哪里看到一些

where do you see some

在这个特定领域里，有哪些比较有吸引力的投资机会？

of the compelling investment opportunities in this particular space?

从估值角度来看，目前我还没觉得有什么特别值得投的项目。不过我确实很关注这些公司的实际运营情况。

I don't know that anything is necessarily compelling to me right now from a valuation perspective, but I I do definitely wanna watch what's the reality for these companies.

你看像 AST SpaceMobile 这家公司，背后的炒作热度可不低。

If you look at a company like an AST Space Mobile, a lot of hype behind that business.

大家真的会为了手机能连上卫星网络而买单吗？

Are people actually going to sign up for a satellite connection for their phone?

如果你用的是Verizon或AT&T，这个会包含在你的套餐里吗？

Is that gonna be included in your plan if you're on Verizon or AT and T?

它背后的真正商业模式是什么？

What is the real business model behind it?

因为我们现在处于这个阶段，火箭发射更多，有效载荷更大，这些火箭公司的收入也更多。

Because we're currently in this phase of, hey, more rockets going up, more payload, more revenue for these rocket companies.

这一切都很好。

All of this is great.

虽然还没到那个地步，但已经很接近了，这些公司很快就要开始展示收入、利润率，以及有没有定价权。

We're not at the they're there yet point, but we're getting really close where these companies are gonna have to start showing revenue, margin, whether they have pricing power or not.

所以这就是我在关注的事情。

So that's what I'm keeping an eye on.

目前我在这方面的投资很少，甚至没有，但我对增长潜力很感兴趣。

I don't have many or any investments in this space at this point, but I'm intrigued by the potential for growth.

我只是觉得，等到了那个现实节点，我们可能会迎来一波回调。

I just think we may be set for kind of a pullback when we get to that reality point.

我同意特拉维斯的看法，现在太空经济领域几乎任何地方的估值都不太有吸引力。

I agree with Travis that the valuations pretty much anywhere in the space economy aren't terribly attractive right now.

有一些长期趋势我认为潜力很大。

There are some long term trends that I think have a lot of potential.

说实话，我刚开始的时候觉得这听起来有点离谱，但数据中心和太空结合这个想法听起来挺酷的。

I mean, it sounded kinda ridiculous when I first started, I have to admit, but the data centers and space thing sounds pretty cool.

而且它真的可能解决我们未来要面对的很多问题。

And, like, it could really be a solution to a lot of the problems that we're gonna face.

不过在你提到的那些东西里，我觉得金穹顶项目短期内最值得投资，至少我是这么认为的。

But of the things you mentioned, I'd say that golden dome is really the most investable on a near term basis, at least in my mind.

你可以叫它国防项目，也可以叫它太空项目，随便你怎么叫。

Now that call it a defense play, call it a space play, call it what you will.

根据范围和时间的不同，估计总支出从1750亿到1.2万亿美元不等。

Depending on the scope and the timeline, I mean, estimates have ranged from anywhere from 175,000,000,000 to 1,200,000,000,000 in total spending.

而且和我们讨论的其他事情不同，这个项目已经有真正的合同在签，真金白银在流动。

And unlike a lot of the other things we're talking about, there are already real contracts being awarded, real money changing hands.

这是一个现在就有资金流动的主题，而且有一些真正合法、现金流充沛的企业占据了其中很大一块份额。

It's a theme that has money moving now, and there are some real legitimate cash flowing businesses that have a big piece of it.

我一听到太空数据中心，虽然跟投资没关系，但每次听到我都忍不住想到《布偶秀》里那些在太空中的小猪，最后还来个大哭的桥段。

I can't help but whenever I hear data centers in space, this is not for anything investment related, but every single time I hear it, I just hear like that Muppet Show pigs in space sort of thing, and I it's like that, you know, big cry at the end.

希望我说这个不会显得我太老派，毕竟我提到了七十年代的《布偶秀》，但我也不知道为什么。

Hopefully, I I know it dates me incredibly as like an old person talking about the nineteen seventies Muppet show, but I don't know why.

这画面好像已经刻在我脑子里了。

Just kinda etched in my brain.

广告回来之后，我们稍微把话题拉回地面一点。

Coming up after the break, we're gonna kinda come back down to earth a little bit.

接下来我们会看看ON Holdings的财报业绩。

We're gonna take a look at ON Holdings earnings.

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You just found out that your sales team is at risk of missing quota.

别慌。

Don't panic.

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Just ask Rippling AI.

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Since it's built on your real time people and business data, Rippling AI can pull metrics from Rippling and Salesforce into a meeting ready dashboard showing quota attainment, headcount plan, and monthly revenue to quota by region.

几秒钟内，你就能看清配额风险背后的原因，并在错过之前解决它。

In seconds, you'll see exactly what's behind your quota risk and fix it before it's missed.

问题得到回答，行动已经采取，危机化解。

Question answered, action taken, Crisis averted.

当你有关键的业务问题需要答案时，不要只是提交工单，然后等上几周才拿到过时的报告。

When you have critical business questions that need answers, don't just file a ticket and wait weeks for an outdated report.

描述你的需求，让Rippling AI立即从你的实时人员和业务数据中构建出来。

Describe what you need and have Rippling AI build it instantly from your live people and business data.

无论是带详细图表的仪表盘，还是带有正确触发器、条件和审批的自动化工作流。

Whether it's a dashboard with detailed charts or automated workflows with the right triggers, conditions, and approvals.

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That's rippling.ai/fool.

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鞋类零售商，或者说运动休闲服饰鞋类公司的股票，昂跑。

Shares of shoe retailer, well, call it athletic athleisure apparel footwear company on holding.

在今日早间公布财报后，其股价下跌约18.8%。

Their shares are down about 18.8% after the company reported earnings earlier this morning.

我的意思是，18%听起来很糟糕，但似乎这个季度，这就是常态，现在财报一出，要么涨20%，要么跌15%，然后三天后，又回到原点。

I mean, 18% sounds awful, but seems like this quarter, that's just that's what everything happens these days when we report earnings, either everything jumps 20% or down 15%, and then three days later, we're just right back where we were.

我们看看这次是否也会这样。

We'll see if that happens here.

但是Travis，我知道你经常关注这家公司，给我讲讲情况吧。

But Travis, I know you follow this company a lot, so give me the rundown.

你看到了什么？

What did you see?

也许这18%的跌幅只是又一次小波动，或者确实有什么理由让市场这么认为？

Maybe the 18% is just another blip, or was there actually something that might justify why the market's thinking this?

嗯，至少从短期来看，他们的业绩指引相对疲软。

Well, the justification at least short term is that their guidance was relatively weak.

所以如果我们看业绩，ON公司总是以瑞士法郎报告，这让投资者很难理解，因为你看营收在季度内增长了13.5%。

So if we look at the results, and now ON always reports in Swiss francs, which makes their results really confusing for investors because you look at revenue was up 13.5% in the quarter.

这听起来并不那么令人印象深刻，但按固定汇率计算，实际上是21.6%。

That doesn't sound all that impressive, but on a constant currency basis, it was actually 21.6 percent.

所以看这些固定汇率的数据总是很重要的，因为他们大部分销售在美国。

So it's always important to look at those constant currency numbers because most of their sales are in The US.

所以美元走弱会使得这些销售额在以瑞士法郎的视角下看起来更少。

So a weak dollar is going to make those sales look smaller when you look through the lens of a Swiss franc.

但投资者现在真正关注的是他们对今年剩余时间的业绩指引有所下调。

But what investors are really focused on right now is that their guidance for the rest of the year was down a little bit.

所以他们预计增长率在20%出头，而不是上季度说的23%以上。

So they're expecting growth in the low 20% range instead of, I believe it 23% plus that they said last quarter.

这说明消费者可能有点疲软，或者如果耐克那边有所复苏的话，他们可能正在失去一点市场份额。

That's telling you that maybe the consumer's a little bit weaker, maybe they're losing a little bit of market share if we're having some sort of recovery with Nike.

我觉得现在还没看到这种情况。

I don't think we're seeing that yet.

ON 有意思的地方在于，他们明确决定要保持定价能力。

The interesting thing for ON is that they have made a explicit decision to keep their pricing power.

我是说，他们的利润率非常惊人。

I mean, their margins are phenomenal.

他们预计毛利率至少能达到65%。

They're expecting a gross profit margin to be at least 65%.

这在服装行业简直不可思议。

That is just crazy in an apparel business.

所以他们就是说，你知道吗，

So they're saying, you know what?

他们会把重点放在盈利能力上。

We're gonna focus on this profitability.

因此，他们可能会牺牲一部分增长。

We're gonna give up growth as a result.

市场今天对此反应负面，但你可以回顾一下耐克过去五年的情况，或者看看露露乐蒙过去五年的表现，你就会发现这是一个危险的滑坡：一旦开始打折促销，为了提升销量和销售额而给消费者更优惠的价格，往往就停不下来了。

The markets are actually negatively to that today, but you could look back at the last five years or so with Nike, the last five years at Lululemon and see that, you know what, it's a slippery slope going down the I'm gonna start discounting my products, give people a little bit better price to move sales, to move volume, to increase that sales number.

ON明确表示不想走这条路。

ON says that they don't wanna do that.

从战略角度看，我觉得这招长期来看是不错的，但这也意味着如果增长稍微慢一点，那些追求高增长的投资者可能会失望，哪怕盈利能力比我们之前在公司增长快的时候预期的要好一些。

Strategically, I think that's probably a good move long term, but it also means if your growth is a little bit slower, those growth investors are gonna be disappointed even if the profitability is gonna be a little bit better than maybe we thought it was when the company was growing faster.

所以他们做了很多权衡取舍。就像我刚才说的，我们还不清楚，根据一些竞争对手的情况，这些变化里有多少是宏观环境导致的，又有多少是ON这家公司特有的因素。

So a lot of trade offs that they're making, what we don't know, like I said, based on some of those competitors of how many of those are macro trade offs and how many of those are ON specific.

正如Travis所说，总结一下：他们的每股收益超出了预期，但营收没达标。

As Travis said, to sum that up, on beat on earnings, they missed on revenue.

销售额有点让人失望，尤其是批发业务这块。他们把这解释为有意为之，也许确实如此，不过利润率比预期的扩大得更多。

Sales were somewhat disappointing, especially on the wholesale side, which they framed as they did that on purpose, and maybe they did, but margins expanded more than expected.

跟一年前相比，他们的毛利率和调整后EBITDA利润率都相当亮眼。

Their gross margin, their adjusted EBITDA margin were both pretty impressive compared to a year ago.

业绩在不同地区差异很大，亚太区销售额增长了55%。

The big geographical disparity in the results, the Asia Pacific sales grew 55%.

顺便说一下，这些都是按固定汇率计算的，免得大家搞混。

All of this is in constant currency, by the way, to not confuse anybody.

而美洲区按固定汇率算增长了13%。

And in The Americas, it was 13% in constant currency.

所以你看，销售差距很大。

So, you know, big sales disparity.

美洲仍然是他们的核心市场，但确实能看到美国那边消费者有点疲软，诸如此类的。

America's it's still their core market, but you're really seeing kind of a slowdown in the strange consumer in America and things like that.

正如他提到的，真正导致下跌的原因是业绩指引。

The real reason for the decline, as he mentioned, was the guidance.

在公司业绩大幅低于预期的同时下调指引，这会让投资者停下来想一想，这个多年来一直很出色的增长故事，会不会比预期更快地放缓呢？

A guidance reduction at the same time a company reports a big revenue miss, it kinda causes investors to take a step back and consider whether this growth story, which admittedly has been stellar for years, could be slowing down a little quicker than expected?

有一件事让我印象很深，Travis，你刚才提到毛利率非常强劲。

One of the things that stood out to me, Travis, you were talking about gross margins and being so strong.

我觉得他们这么做的原因之一是，ON的一个优势在于直接面向消费者的销售渠道。

I think part of the reason they do that is that ON, one of their strengths is direct to consumer channel sales.

他们主要靠自己的网站销售，而不是像Dick's Sporting Goods那样的批发渠道，这一点跟其他很多公司不太一样。

Their own website, not necessarily doing things wholesales at like a Dick's Sporting Goods nearly as much relative to a lot of the other companies.

文中提到DTC（直接面向消费者）的销售增长超过了整体增长水平，这在一定程度上解释了为什么利润率更高，因为这类销售的利润空间通常更大。

It mentioned DTC sales were up more than its overall growth numbers, which does tend to explain a little bit on that higher margins, because that tends to be a higher margin sale.

我觉得有意思的一点是，拿它跟耐克、阿迪达斯这些公司做个对比。那些没在直营渠道上做得那么成功的大厂，还在拼命跟迪克体育用品、Foot Locker这些批发商打交道。走批发虽然量大，但利润率低得多。

What I find interesting about this point is kind of comparing it to like Nike, Adidas and companies like that, where the other larger companies, which haven't been as successful with DTC channels relative to them, they're still trying to work really hard with the Dick's Sporting Goods, the Foot Lockers, the companies that you end up doing a wholesale, it's larger volume, but much lower margin.

所以我想知道，这种直营销售模式，是不是互联网时代、直营时代成长起来的新公司的常态？以后都会是这样吗？

So my question is whether DTC sales, is this just how new companies that grow up in the age of the internet, in the age of DTC, is this just how it's going to be?

还是说，ON能像耐克或阿迪达斯那样，主要靠直营模式做到那个规模？

Or can ON actually get to the scale of a Nike or Adidas relying heavily on this DTC model?

或者会不会有个时候，这个渠道开始限制增长，迫使他们不得不更多地拓展其他渠道？

Or is there gonna be some point where like that channel starts to kind of limit growth and it will have to push into those other channels more?

他们肯定达不到耐克那种规模。

They're definitely not gonna reach the scale of Nike.

我是说，咱们都差不多年纪，八十年代末九十年代初长大的，当时耐克真是无处不在。

I mean, I think, you know, we all similar ages, you know, growing up in the late eighties and into the nineties, Nike was kinda everywhere.

而且那个模式已经完全变了，因为以前是供应驱动的环境，供应方说了算。

And the model there has just completely shifted because you're going from a supply driven environment where the supply is the power.

当时有乔丹代言，有电视广告，这些，所有人都穿耐克。

The having, you know, Jordan as a a sponsorship, having TV commercials, all that kind of stuff, everybody was wearing Nike.

现在更像是个性化广告的时代，直接面向消费者的销售在Instagram或者谷歌上，马特会看到跟我不同的广告，结果我们可能就买了不同的产品。

Now you're in much more of a case where there can be individualized ads with those direct to consumer sales on Instagram or on Google where Matt's gonna see a different ad from me and we're gonna maybe buy different products as a result.

所以我觉得市场会更分散。

So I think there is gonna be more of kind of a disparate market.

这些公司要面对的问题是，你在那个市场里处在什么位置，规模能有多大。

And the question for these companies is gonna be where do you fit in that market and what is your scale gonna be?

你说得对，昂跑可能已经到了一个阶段，不再是那个能保持30%复合增长的公司了。

You're right that ON may be reaching a point where this isn't gonna be a 30% compounding company anymore.

但如果他们能保持15%到20%的营收增长，并且利润率非常高，那仍然可以是一个非常出色的业务。

But if they can compound their revenue growth at 15 to 20% and do so at a really, really high margin, that can still be really phenomenal business.

我觉得当你审视ON Holdings、Nike或Lululemon时，你需要问自己的是：它们未来会变成什么样，现在又展现出了什么样的自己？

I think when you're looking at ON Holdings, when you're looking at Nike or Lululemon, the question you have to ask yourself is what are they going to be and what are they showing themselves to be?

ON本季度就证明了，我们之前谈到的定价权和保持高利润率，正是我们正在做的事情。

ON showed you this quarter, hey, all that talk that we had about pricing power, about keeping margins high, that's exactly what we're doing.

我们这样做是以牺牲部分销售为代价的，但这也意味着五年后，这依然会是一个高端品牌。

And what we're doing is we're giving up sales as a result, but that means that in five years, this is still gonna be a premium brand.

他们不会走上Under Armour那样的下坡路，那对投资者来说简直是灾难。

They're not gonna go down that slippery slope of Under Armour, for example, which has been disastrous for investors.

所以当你进入直销（DTC）领域时，你必须看到，是的。

So when you get to that DTC world, you've gotta look at yes.

是的。

Yes.

ON Holdings能触及的市场蛋糕确实更小了，但只要你以非常高的盈利水平触达客户，这依然可以是一个非常出色的业务。

The the pie is smaller for an ON Holdings to reach, but as long as you're reaching the customers at a very profitable level, that can still be a really phenomenal business.

所以两者都有一点，而且我也不认为这意味着他们长期会放弃销售或利润。

So it's a little bit of both and I don't necessarily think that that means that they're gonna give up sales or give up margin long term.

只是这跟八十年代、九十年代很多其他公司成长时的商业模式完全不同了。

It's just a very different business than you had in the eighties and nineties when a lot of these other companies were growing up.

说到这些公司的成长，就像我们三个人一样，耐克是在不同的时代崛起的。

Speaking of these companies growing up, like the three of us, Nike came up in a different era.

那时候还没有建立直接面向消费者关系的工具。

The tools to grow direct to consumer relationships didn't exist yet.

我不记得八十年代末有谁在上网。

I don't remember anyone being on the Internet back in in the late eighties.

当时互联网已经存在了，但还没有商业化。

It was a thing, but it wasn't commercialized yet.

对。

Yeah.

那时候Prodigy上可没有耐克的广告。

There weren't Nike ads on Prodigy back then.

对。

Right.

电视不会给你看定向广告。

The TV didn't show you a targeted ad.

那时候还没有这种技术。

It didn't exist yet.

当时所谓的直营模式就是JCPenney的商品目录。

Direct to consumer was the JCPenney catalog at the time.

那是我们当时最接近直营工具的东西了。

That was the closest thing we had to direct to consumer tools.

它的整个模式完全建立在批发关系上。

Its identity was formed completely on its wholesale relationships.

现在的公司有更多的控制权。

Companies these days have more control.

直营模式让公司在定价和利润率上拥有更大的控制权。

Direct to consumer gives a company more control over pricing, over margins.

这就是为什么我们之前提到，ON Holdings 现在其实是在刻意调整自己的利润率，通过放缓批发业务来实现这一点。

That's why we kinda mentioned that ON Holdings is somewhat engineering its margins right now deliberately by pumping the brakes on wholesale.

这样它能更好地控制自己的品牌形象。

It can control its brand image better.

这就是 ON 能维持高端品牌形象的方式。

That's how you maintain that premium brand that ON's doing.

但我要说，比 Travis 稍微多一点的是，我觉得直接面向消费者的模式在规模扩大时会有更多限制，比如开设自己的门店、建立自己的物流体系等等。

But I will say that a little more than Travis, I feel like the direct to consumer model is gonna have more limits at scale when it comes to building out your own stores, building out your fulfillment logistics, things like that.

而且总有一天，ON Holdings 会面临一个选择。

And it's gonna come to a point where ON Holdings is gonna have to make a choice.

要么成为一个年增长 10% 到 15% 的价值股，说实话，现在它已经接近价值股的范畴了；要么保持 30% 以上的增长率，但真正依赖批发，放弃很大一部分利润率。

Become a value stock that's growing at 10 to 15% annually, which it's approaching value stock territory right now, if I'm being totally honest, or maintain a 30% plus growth rate but really lean into wholesale and give up a lot of your margins.

他们最终必须在某种程度上做出妥协，我不确定他们会选择哪个方向。

They're gonna have to kind of compromise a little bit within at some point, and I'm not sure what direction they're gonna go.

到目前为止，他们在战略上做的每件事我都没法挑毛病，所以我毫不怀疑他们会做出正确的决定。

So far, I can't argue with anything they've done strategically, so I have no doubt that they're gonna make the right call.

但我觉得未来五年会更多是一种平衡的艺术。

But it's gonna be more of a balancing act, I think, over the next five years.

坚持价格这件事通常都行得通，直到突然之间资产负债表上堆积了大量库存，然后你就会看到更多批发渠道在流动，说不定还会出现在他们预期之外的渠道里。

The holding the price thing always works out until all of a sudden there's a lot of inventory building up on the balance sheet, and then, you know, then you start to see a little bit more of that wholesale moving stuff maybe in channels that they don't expect.

所以只要ON能够保持库存供应链高效运转，不让太多东西堆积在资产负债表上，应该就没问题。

So it seems as long as ON can kind of keep that inventory supply chain working efficiently and not having a lot of stuff build up on the balance sheet should work.

在结束之前，Travis，我知道你是这家公司的粉丝，也是这双鞋的粉丝。

So before we go, Travis, I know you're a fan of the company, also a fan of the shoes.

你最近买的一双ON的鞋是什么？

What's the most recent ON purchase you've had?

我买了一双新的懒人鞋，鞋跟可以翻下来一点，有点像——我不知道你会不会喜欢，比如Kizzix那种可能算是个例子。

I've got these new slip on shoes where the back folds down a little bit like a I don't know if you would like a Kizzix would be kind of an example.

所以它既可以是一双洞洞鞋，也可以是一双普通鞋，看你怎么穿。

So it's like a a croc if you want it to be or a shoe if you want it to be.

看起来有点傻，但我也说不好。

They're a little goofy, but I don't know.

目前为止我觉得挺不错的。

I'm liking them so far.

你是走批发渠道买的，还是直接面向消费者买的？

Did you buy them wholesale or direct to consumer?

直接面向消费者。

Direct to consumer.

没错。

Absolutely.

没错。

There you go.

广告过后，我们将关注电动垂直起降飞行器行业的动态变化。

Coming up after the break, we're gonna look at the moving and shaking in the eVTOL industry.

工作中最高效的人并不是比别人更努力。

The most effective people at work aren't working harder than everyone else.

他们是在更好的体系下更聪明地工作。

They're working smarter inside better systems.

来自Grammarly团队的Superhuman Go是一款AI聊天工具，能融入你已经在用的所有软件，随时待命，并且已经了解你正在做什么。

Superhuman Go from the makers of Grammarly is the AI chat that works inside every tool you already use, always ready and already aware of what you're working on.

它就像一个队友，唯一的任务就是帮你把工作做得更好。

It's a teammate whose only job is to help you be better at yours.

有了Go的协助，你可以尽情展现自己的强项。

With Go working with you, you can show off what you do best.

去superhuman.com看看Superhuman Go能做什么吧。

See what Superhuman Go can do at superhuman.com.

就是superhuman.com。

That's superhuman.com.

每周日，我们都会在《本周科技》中回顾一周的科技新闻。

Every Sunday, we cover the week's tech news on this week in tech.

大家好。

Hi.

我是TWIT播客网络的Leo Laporte，邀请你和我、Devindra Harnower、Larry Maggett以及Alan Malefantano一起，向一位传奇人物告别。

This is Leo Laporte of the TWIT Podcast Network inviting you to join me, Devindra Harnower, Larry Maggett, and Alan Malefantano as we say goodbye to a legend.

那个帮我创办TWIT的人，我的导师和挚友，这周去世了，约翰·C。

The man that helped me start TWIT, my mentor and dear friend who passed away this week, John C.

德沃夏克。

Dvorak.

我们还会聊聊史上最奇怪的AI黑客事件。

We'll also talk about the weirdest AI hack ever.

这就是本周的TWIT节目。

That's this week on TWIT.

你可以在twit.tv以及任何你收听播客的地方找到它。

You'll find it at twit.tv and wherever you get your podcasts.

距离上次两家公司持续较劲已经有一段时间了，这种“你能做的我也能做得更好”的戏码，在电动垂直起降公司如Archer Aviation和Joby Aviation之间上演。

It's been a minute since the last time we had two companies persistently engaged in a game of anything you can do, I can do better than electric vertical takeoff and landing companies like Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation.

这还不算他们多次把对方告上法庭，各种理由，比如专利纠纷，或者互相指责抄袭之类的。

That's not even counting the numerous times both have dragged each other into the court for various reasons, one suing the other for patent, whatever, stealing stuff.

过去一两年真是相当戏剧化。

It's been quite a dramatic past couple of year or two.

现在才周二，但我们已经看到两家公司都宣布了重大收购。

Now it's only Tuesday, but we've already seen both companies announce significant acquisitions.

所以又是这样，一家做了一件事，另一家就得回应。

So again, one does one thing, the other's gotta react.

Archer宣布与波音达成协议，接管其eVTOL业务以及其他几项非核心波音资产。

Archer announced a deal with Boeing to take over its eVTOL and several of its other non core Boeing properties.

然后在不到24小时后，Joby宣布收购国防承包商Renaissance Sciences。

And then less than twenty four hours later, Joby announced it's acquiring a defense contractor, Renaissance Sciences.

所以各位，我请你们每个人各自选一个交易，给我们快速介绍一下情况，以及你们看到的市场对每笔交易的反应。

So guys, I asked you guys to each, you know, pick one of the deals and give us a quick rundown and the reactions that you guys saw for each of the deals.

看起来市场确实很看好Archer的交易。

Archer's deal, the market really liked it, it seems like.

你提到的那之后，股价大概上涨了20%。

The stock was up roughly 20% afterwards that you mentioned.

他们要收购三家波音的子公司。

They're acquiring three Boeing subsidiaries.

一家是eVTOL（电动垂直起降飞行器）的开发商。

There's the eVTOL developer.

另一家是做空中交通管理软件的公司，还有一家做军用无人机，而且这块业务已经非常赚钱了。

There's one company that makes air traffic management software, one that makes defense drones that's actually a very profitable business already.

这是一笔全股票交易，所以他们没花一分钱现金。

It's an all stock deal, so this didn't cost them any money.

波音因此获得了Archer近20%的股份，还包括一些认股权证。

Gives Boeing a stake of nearly 20% in Archer, including some warrants that it's getting.

从战略角度来看，这对两家公司来说都非常合理。

And from a strategic standpoint, it makes a lot of sense for both companies.

我提到过其中一个被收购的项目，叫Institute。

I mentioned one of the acquired properties called Institute.

那是一家无人机制造商。

It's the drone maker.

他们目前已经实现盈利了。

They're already profitable.

他们的年营收超过两亿美元。

They have over $200,000,000 of annual revenue.

Archer基本上还没产生收入，除了拿点政府补助和研究经费之类的。

Archer is mostly a pre revenue company other than, like, some grants and research funding and things like that.

所以这对他们来说意义重大，我不想说那是收入多元化，但至少有了些收入来源。

So this is a big deal when it comes to I don't wanna even say revenue diversification, but just having some.

他们还获得了一款完全自主的eVTOL设计，不用自己从头研发，这是波音设计的，说实话，这结果挺让人满意的。

It also gets a fully autonomous eVTOL design that it didn't have to design itself that was designed by Boeing, which, you know, you can't really get mad at that.

从波音的角度来看，这能甩掉一些它原本还攥着、但并非核心的资产，从而把更多精力集中在商业和军用飞机这些主业上。

From Boeing's perspective, it gets rid of a lot of some of its noncore properties that it was still holding and can focus more of its efforts on its core aircraft business, commercial and military.

如果 Archer 这些业务真能做出点名堂，波音手里那部分股权就能带来长期的增值空间。

It gets long term upside from the Archer stake if these businesses turn out to be something.

所以，它既剥离了这些业务，又能从中继续获得财务上的好处。

So it's getting rid of these businesses but still getting financial benefit from them.

看来投资者对这笔交易还挺买账的。

So investors seem to like the deal.

这让Archer在国防领域显得更有实力，而且就像我说的，它给一个急需收入的资产负债表带来了实实在在的收入。

It makes Archer a much more credible defense sector player, and it like I said, it adds some real revenue to a balance sheet that really needs it.

对。

Yeah.

市场对Archer的反应是积极的，而且Archer每次发布新闻稿时通常都是这样，他们真的很擅长发布新闻稿。

The reaction to Archer's was positive, and that's generally been the case when Archer makes these press releases, and they're really good at the press release game.

但你看，从2025年初开始，Joby Aviation的表现超过了Archer。

But you look at since the beginning of 2025, Joby Aviation has outperformed Archer.

我认为原因是Joby更专注。

And the reason for that, I think, was Joby was the more focused company.

我们知道他们接下来要做什么。

We knew what they were gonna be doing.

他们会比Archer更早地搭载商业乘客飞行，可能比Archer Aviation早一年多。

They're gonna be flying their aircraft with commercial passengers before Archer, potentially more than a year before Archer Aviation.

所以这真的是一家在垂直起降和空中出租车领域扩张的公司。

So this was really a company that was scaling in the vertical takeoff and landing with air taxis.

所以在业务拓展方面，他们去年收购了一家叫 Blade 的公司。

So building out, they bought a company called Blade last year.

Blade 目前运营的是直升机业务。

Blade's currently running helicopters.

我们可以想象一下，把 eVTOL 飞行器装进去，然后从拉瓜迪亚机场飞到曼哈顿，比如这样。

We could just imagine just fitting in an eVTOL aircraft and then taking that from, you know, LaGuardia to Manhattan, for example.

这笔交易有意思的地方在于，这是一笔五亿美元的收购案，规模相对较小，其中四亿五千万是现金支付，只有五千万是股票支付，但这确实让 Joby 更多地涉足国防领域。

The interesting thing with this deal is this $500,000,000 acquisition, so it was a much smaller acquisition, $450,000,000 of it in cash, only 50,000,000 in stock, but it does move Joby more into the defense space.

公告里提到，这实际上会成为他们新的国防业务板块。

And what they said in the release is that this is actually going to become their new defense business.

所以他们大概会分成两个独立的部门，我猜他们是担心我之前说过的情况。

And we're gonna kinda kinda have two separate divisions because I think that they're worried about what exactly what I said earlier.

比如：你们现在不再是一家专注的公司了。

Hey, we're you're not a focused company anymore.

我们原本以为你们是家空中出租车公司，结果现在又成了国防承包商。

We thought you were an air taxi company and now you're a defense contractor.

所以我觉得这里的想法就像Archer的收购一样，能带来大约一亿美元的收入。

So I think the idea here is just like with Archer's acquisition, are bringing in, you know, a $100,000,000 worth of revenue.

这是一家成长型公司。

It is a growth company.

它可以独立运营，同时在防务方面也还有一点选择空间。

It can kind of operate on its own and yet still have a little bit of optionality in the defense side.

但对Joby来说，我觉得更重要的问题是，这家公司长期想成为什么？

But for Joby, I think the bigger question to me is, what does this company want to be long term?

如果答案是你要成为一家大型空中出租车公司，那就专注在这上面。

And if the answer is you wanna be a big air taxi company, then just focus on that.

别把那4.5亿美元投入到一家防务承包商上。

Don't take that $450,000,000 and put it into a defense contractor.

应该投入到扩大业务、成为一家空中出租车公司上。

Put it into scaling out your business and becoming an air taxi company.

但你知道，讽刺的是，市场昨天很喜欢Archer，今天对Joby这笔交易却相当冷淡。

But, you know, the market's reaction ironically, loved Archer yesterday, pretty ho on this Joby deal today.

股价跌了大概3%。

Stock's down about 3%.

我注意到这两笔交易有两个小细节，第一，波音卖给了他们一个自主eVTOL设计，但把自主软件留给了自己。

Two quick notes and things that I noticed with both of these deals for one, Boeing sold them an autonomous eVTOL design, but kept the autonomous software for themselves.

这个发展里有个挺有意思的小插曲。

So interesting little fold in that development.

另外在Joby的新闻稿里，我很惊讶他们花了那么多篇幅讲收购100万平方英尺的制造空间，几乎有点像说，对，我们买了国防业务，但看看我们现在拥有的制造空间，这样就能开始扩大规模了。

And also in the Joby press release, I was very surprised how much they were talking about acquiring 1,000,000 square foot of manufacturing space, kind of almost as a little bit of, yeah, we bought a defense business, but look at all this manufacturing space we have now so we can start to scale up.

也许那正是你说的，试图保持专注，说这就是我们得到的，但走着瞧吧。

Maybe that was just to your point, trying to stay focused and saying that's what we got, but we'll see.

所以我对这两个公告的总结是这么看的。

So here was my takeaway from kind of both of these announcements.

这看起来是刻意要分散持有的资产。

It appears to be a deliberate move to diversify the holdings.

这是不是等于承认，这种eVTOL商业化空中出租车业务比最初预期的要难得多，而且可能需要更长时间？

And is this kind of an admission that this eVTOL deployment commercial air taxi business is much harder than initially expected and will likely take a lot longer?

我觉得这更像是在对冲eVTOL可能比预期更晚落地的风险，而不一定是承认它们真的会延期。

I would call it more hedging against the possibility that eVTOLs could take longer than originally thought, not necessarily an admission that they will.

两家公司都表示，他们仍然按计划推进今年设定的关键里程碑，但确实，任何涉及新型飞行器的开发，你看RocketLab就是个很好的例子。

Both say that they're still on track to reach some key milestones they set this year, but it's true that anytime you're building a new category of a vehicle that flies I mean, look at RocketLab.

它就是个完美的例子。

It's a perfect example.

这类项目通常都会比最初预计的耗时更长、花费更多。

It generally has taken longer and cost more money than originally expected.

所以投资者对这些还没产生收入的公司感到有些不耐烦，这确实说得通。不过我觉得它们还是按计划推进的，只是交付产品的时间可能比最初预计的要晚上一到三年。

So it makes sense that investors are somewhat getting impatient with these essentially being pre revenue businesses, but I think they're still on track to deliver the product that they promised just, you know, maybe a year or three later than they they originally thought.

我倒觉得这说明它们在尝试业务多元化，而不是把核心业务尽可能快地扩大规模。

I actually think that this shows that they are trying to diversify a business and not scaling that core business as as quickly as they potentially could.

这也是我疑问多于答案的地方，尤其是Joby这边，因为它们原本计划2026年就可能投入商业客运。

And that's where I have a lot more questions than answers, especially on the Joby side because Joby actually wants to have potentially commercial passengers in 2026.

我的意思是，它们2026年有可能在德州开始运营，2027年肯定没问题。

I mean, they're potentially gonna be operating in Texas in 2026, definitely in 2027.

所以他们现在没有足够的能力来真正扩大那个业务。

So they do not have enough capacity to actually scale that operation today.

我不知道国防在这个里面扮演什么角色。

I don't know where defense fits into that.

你知道，我觉得你可以从这两笔交易中解读出，其实更大的部分是自主性，他们是在看五年或十年后的发展，然后想，你知道吗？

You know, you could read into both of these deals, I think, and say that the bigger piece of it is actually autonomy, and they're looking at five or ten years down the road and going, you know what?

我们甚至不想在这些飞机上有飞行员。

We don't even wanna have a pilot in these aircraft.

我们希望它们完全自主飞行，所以我们需要通过传感器来构建这些软件部分。

We want them to fly fully autonomously, so we need to build these software pieces by the sensors.

那是Joby交易的一部分。

That's part of the Joby deal.

但我认为这里还有很多变数。

But I think there's a lot to play out here.

我们会从两家公司那里得到更多信息。

We'll get a little bit more information from both.

Joby今天收盘后会给投资者做一个演示。

Joby has a presentation for investors after the market closes today.

但我认为这反而带来了更多疑问，因为他们既想做商业公司，又想当国防承包商，而在目前两项业务都还没落地的情况下，想两头兼顾真的很难。

But I think this just does add a lot more questions because they're trying to be both commercial companies and defense contractors, and it's really hard to do both when you don't have either completed at this point.

确实得先观望一下。

It's definitely a wait and see sort of approach.

我能理解他们想进军国防业务的逻辑。

I can see the logic going wanting to get into the defense business.

稳住。

Steady.

它能产生现金流。

It's cash generative.

你可以用这笔钱来支持一些业务，给自己留条后路，这样就不用为了把股价拉高到值得融资的程度而去发一堆新闻稿去资本市场圈钱了。

You can use that to fund some of the stuff and maybe give yourself a lifeline and not have to go to the capital markets after issuing a slew of press releases just to, you know, pump your stock up enough to make it worthwhile.

所以咱们走着瞧吧。

So we'll see.

再说一遍，最让我担心的是马特说的一年到三年。

Again, the thing that scared me the most is when Matt said a year or three.

我觉得很多投资者听到‘我们落后了三年’时，不会太兴奋。

I don't think a lot of investors would be too excited when they hear, well, we're three years behind.

我认为一年时间可能就够了。

I I think one year may be enough.

今天的时间就到这里。

That's all the time we have for today.

我先做个免责声明。

I'm gonna have disclosure for you out here.

跟往常一样，节目里的嘉宾可能持有相关股票，Motley Fool也可能有正式的建议或反对意见。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stock that about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以别光听这里的内容就买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely within here.

所有理财内容都遵循Motley Fool的编辑标准，并且未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards, and it's not approved by advertisers.

广告是赞助内容，仅供提供信息参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content provided for informational purposes only.

要查看完整的广告披露信息，请查看我们的节目说明。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢制作人克里斯蒂·沃特沃斯以及The Motley Fool团队的其他成员。

Thanks to producer Kristi Waterworth and the rest of The Motley Fool team.

来自马特、特拉维斯和我，感谢大家的收听。

From Matt, Travis, and myself, thanks for listening.

我们很快再聊。

We'll chat again soon.