SpaceX的1万亿美元营收野心：埃隆·马斯克能否实现？

SpaceX明年营收能达到一万亿美元吗？

Can SpaceX hit a trillion dollars in revenue next year?

Motley Fool隐藏的宝石投资现在开始。

Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.

欢迎来到Motley Fool隐藏的宝石投资。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是Travis Hoium，今天和我一起的是Lou Whiteman和Jon Quast。

I'm Travis Hoium joined today by Lou Whiteman and Jon Quast.

各位，我们马上要聊SpaceX了。

Guys, we are gonna get to SpaceX.

别担心。

Don't worry.

但我想先从Netflix说起。

But I do wanna start with Netflix.

这只股票在Motley Fool圈子里已经有一段时间了。

This is a stock that's been in the Motley Fool universe for quite a while.

很多投资者可能在这里赚了不少，但他们最近的季度表现，并不是投资者所期望的。

A lot of investors probably have a huge winner here, but their recent quarter, not exactly what investors were looking for.

在我们周三早些时候录制时，股价只下跌了大约3%。

Stock's only down about 3% as we're recording early in the day on Wednesday.

但是，Lou，这看起来像是那种季度，营收有两位数的增长，利润率我觉得甚至比他们预期的还要好一点，但市场是不是对Netflix现在所处的成熟阶段有点反应过度了？

But, Lou, this seems like one of those quarters, double digit revenue growth, their margins, I think, are even a little bit better than they had guided for, but the market's kind of ho mature phase that Netflix is now in?

我觉得正是如此。

I think that's it exactly.

你看。

Look.

营收在增长，但增速放缓了。

Revenue is growing, but it's slower.

参与度方面没什么好消息。

Not much good news on engagement.

人们并没有真的更兴奋地来Netflix平台。

You know, people aren't really more excited to come to the Netflix platform.

广告销售放缓，我觉得这真的是一个相当有趣的意外。

Slowing ad sales, which I think is a really pretty interesting surprise.

就像，Netflix就是那样。

Like, Netflix is what they are.

我昨天和一个人，一个投资者，聊到这个问题，就是关于……

I was having this conversation with someone, with an investor yesterday to talk about how just...

已经很久没有因为Netflix上的任何东西而感到兴奋了。

It's been a long time since, you know, kinda got excited about anything they found on Netflix.

这是一家成熟的公司，表现还不错。

It's a mature company, it's doing fine.

有点像人们对苹果的渐进式更新感到厌倦一样。

It's sort of like how people are bored with Apple's incrementalism.

我们处在一个渐进式更新的时代，以前令人惊叹的东西现在不再那么令人惊叹了。

We are in this age of incrementalism where things that were once wow just aren't as wow.

而且我觉得这个季度有点让人提不起兴趣。

And I I think kind of a yawn to this quarter.

确实挺无聊的，所以这次市场可能判断对了。

It kind of was a yawn, so maybe the market's right this time.

乔恩，增长放缓，这总是投资者不想听到的。

Jon, decelerating growth, which is always something that investors don't wanna hear.

他们还撤掉了内容主管。

They also got rid of their content chief.

看来他们是在承认这一点。

So it seems like they are acknowledging.

电话会议上有好多关于参与度的问题。

There's a lot of questions on the conference call about that engagement.

我也不确定该用什么具体指标来衡量。

I don't know exactly what metric you wanna use.

他们想把话题转到，‘嘿，你知道吗？’

They wanted to turn it to, hey, you know what?

我们想涨价就能涨价，所以我们鼓励……”

We can raise prices if we want, so we encourage...

那肯定相当不错。

Must be pretty good.

但他们也承认，也许内容还不够吸引人。

But they are acknowledging that, hey, maybe the content isn't as compelling as it needs to be.

完全同意。

Absolutely.

而且Lou已经提到了这一点，我觉得他说得完全到位。

And Lou already touched on that, I think that that hits the nail on the head.

我认为在内容质量有问题的时候，你不应该提高价格。

I don't think that you raise prices when you are struggling with content.

我觉得那不是正确的做法，而且我也不认为……

I don't think that that is the right move, and I don't...

我认为这就是为什么他们现在没有这么做。

And I think that's why they're not doing it right now.

通常没有人会因为刚公布的季度业绩而惩罚一家公司的股价。

Nobody punishes a stock usually for the quarter it just reported.

通常，投资者关心的是接下来的几个季度。

Usually, it is the coming quarters that investors are concerned about.

这里的情况似乎就是这样。

That seems to be the case here.

你已经提到了几件事。

You've already touched on a couple of things.

我只想再强调一下广告这部分。

I just wanna double down on the advertising component.

这应该是Netflix的摇钱树，可能现在仍然是，但关于数字广告，已经有一些担忧在表面下酝酿了。

This is supposed to be Netflix's golden goose and probably still is, but there are already fears kind of bubbling under the surface, generally speaking, when it comes to digital advertising.

这会不会被颠覆呢？

Is this something that is going to be disrupted?

然后Netflix说，嘿。

And Netflix then saying, hey.

我们实际上今年的指导目标比我们想要的要低一些。

We're actually coming in with our guidance a little bit lighter for the year than we wanted to.

不过，我可以先给大家吃颗定心丸。

But if I can just put some calm to those fears.

如果数字广告在市场上还有一席之地，在智能体AI接管之后，内容业务肯定还是其中之一，因为那里还是人类与平台互动的地方，所以这对Netflix长期来说是好事。还有一点，Netflix并没有说这是需求问题，而是产品上线时机的问题，所以我觉得它今年预期的收入可能不会如期到来，只是会稍微晚一点。

If digital advertising is going to persist anywhere in the market as agentic AI takes over, I I would say a content business is one place where it's going to persist, because that is a place where humans are still interacting with the platform, and so that's good for Netflix long term, and I'd say the other thing is, Netflix isn't saying this is a demand issue, this is a product launch timing issue, and so I would see that this revenue that it was expecting this year, maybe not anymore, it's gonna come in just a little bit later than expected.

所以这是乐观的看法。

So this is the glass half full outlook.

Jon，现在股价无论是基于过去还是未来的收益，都已经低于20倍市盈率了。

Jon, we're now at the point where shares are trading for under 20 times earnings both on a trailing and a forward basis.

我们之前提到了收入仍然有两位数的增长。

We talked about the still double digit revenue growth.

这只股票是不是开始有吸引力了？

Is this a stock that's starting to look compelling?

我真的试图反驳这个观点，因为正如Lou所说，收入增长在放缓，2025年增长16%，预计2026年全年增长13%，作为投资者，你不想看到增长放缓，但13%对于这么大的公司来说还是不错的。

I really tried to poke some holes in in that idea, because as Lou noted, the revenue growth is decelerating, and so 16% in 2025, expecting 13% here for 2026 for the full year, the decelerating revenue growth isn't something that you wanna see as an investor, but 13%, that's still pretty decent considering the size of the business.

看营业利润率，预计同比会上升，可能略低于历史高点，但还是同比更高，而且正如你所说，估值变得更吸引人了，可能对数字广告的担心有些过度了，所以我确实试图反驳这个观点，但发现挺难反驳的。

You look at the operating margin, it's expected to be up on a year over year basis, maybe a little bit down from an all time high, but still higher on a year over year basis, and as you said, that valuation is becoming more attractive, maybe fears are overblown in digital advertising, so I did try to poke some holes in that idea that maybe this is turning into a good value stock, and I'm having a hard time doing it.

也许现在确实是一个有价值的股票。

Perhaps it is a good value stock here.

逐渐接近了。

It's getting there.

你看，它算科技公司吗？

I mean, look, is it a tech company?

我不觉得它真是科技公司，它是个媒体公司。

Don't think it's really a tech company, it's a media company.

从现在起还有增长故事吗？

Is it a growth story from here?

我不确定它真的……

I don't know if it's really...

那它是什么呢？

So, I mean, you know, what are they?

如果它是娱乐公司，那么20倍市盈率可能就差不多了。

If they are an entertainment company, you know, maybe 20 times earnings is is about right.

我觉得这里面确实有点东西。

I I think there's a there there.

我不认为他们会消失。

I don't think they disappear.

我觉得他们会继续下去。

I think they continue on.

但我的确认为，这里的股东基础需要换血。

But I I do think that we need the shareholder base to flip here.

那些当初把Netflix当作科技成长故事来投资的投资者，不得不认输退场，而那些对成熟媒体公司或流媒体公司感兴趣的人会进来。

The the investors that were in Netflix as a tech growth story are going to have to surrender and get out and people who kind of would be interested in a mature, media company or a streaming company are going to come in.

这需要时间。

That's gonna take time.

我觉得作为投资者，现在看看它并不算是个坏主意，但我也觉得不必急于一时。

I don't think as an investor, it's a bad move to look at it now, but I also don't think you have to be in any hurry.

我认为这就是未来一段时间内的状况。

This is I think what it's gonna be for a while.

这种股票对我来说，还不算是那种想都不用想就能买的。

This is one of those stocks that, it's not quite no brainer territory to me.

我……

I...

我其实从来没买过Netflix的股票，但我对它挺感兴趣的，因为我觉得这家公司是能存活下来的那种。

I've never actually owned shares of Netflix, but it's one that I'm interested in because I think this is one of the companies that is going to survive.

但你说得对，Lou。

But you're right, Lou.

你看看其他公司，它们的故事好像更清晰。

You look at the other companies and they seem to have just a clearer story.

YouTube明显就是那个用户生成内容的公司。

YouTube is clearly the user generated content company there.

我觉得我们得看看下个季度的数字怎么样，但它们可能比Netflix增长得快。

I I think we'll see what the numbers look like in this, next quarter, but they're probably growing faster than Netflix.

迪士尼就是主打家庭的。

Disney is the, you know, family.

还有主题公园，以及诸如此类的东西。

You got the theme parks, all of that kind of stuff.

Netflix的地位已经不像过去那么突出了，这种情况已经持续了很长时间。

Netflix is sort of in a less prominent position than it has been for a very, very long time.

我们回来之后，会讲到埃隆·马斯克在电话会议上的最新言论。

When we come back, we're gonna get to Elon Musk's recent comments on his conference call.

稍后再说这个。

More on that in a moment.

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Before we get too far into the show, Motley Fool CEO Tom Gardner says that artificial general intelligence or AGI will reset the global economy putting hundreds of trillions of dollars up for grabs To take advantage, he has put $2,500,000 behind what he's identified as the 40 biggest AGI winners.

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网址是agiready.fool.com。

That's agiready.fool.com.

昨天市场收盘后，SpaceX——埃隆·马斯克现在管理的上市公司中，我认为是最大的一家——公布了财报，电话会议简直令人难以置信。

After the market closed yesterday, SpaceX, Elon Musk's now, I think, largest holding out of the public companies that he runs, reported earnings and the conference call was incredible.

我们马上就会讲到那一点。

We'll get to that in just a moment.

但是，Jon，这些数字也令人印象深刻。

But, Jon, the numbers were also incredibly impressive.

营收增长了161%，EBITDA为正。

Revenue was up a 161%, positive EBITDA.

我的意思是，从这些主要数字来看，似乎有很多值得肯定的地方。

I I mean, there seemed to be a lot to like from the headline numbers.

当然，很多增长来自超级智能业务部分，但这些数字需要谨慎看待，因为收购了Cursor。

A lot of that growth coming from, of course, the super intelligence part of the business, And those numbers do need to be taken with a little bit of a grain of salt because there was the acquisition of Cursor.

Cursor，当然，据估计在收购前年化运行率约为40亿美元。

Cursor, of course, estimates have it kind of at a $4,000,000,000 annualized run rate before acquisition.

现在，这是它每季度产生的收入吗？

Now is that what it's generating quarterly revenue?

绝对不是。

Absolutely not.

但超级智能业务这部分有75亿美元，当然，Cursor在其中贡献了不少。

But $7,500,000,000 for the superintelligence component of the business, certainly, Cursor was a contributor there.

所以不全是自然增长的。

So it's not all organic.

话虽如此，这里确实有很多自然增长。

That said, there is a lot of organic growth here.

而且正如你指出的，确实很有意思，实际的发射业务，也就是你想到SpaceX时想到的那个，目前反而是整个公司里最小的一块。

And as you point out, yes, it's it's so interesting that the actual launch business, what you think of with SpaceX, is actually the smallest part of the business by far at this point.

所以连接业务，也就是Starlink这部分，实际上比发射业务大得多，本季度是52亿美元，而太空业务只有18亿美元，但超级智能业务超过了75亿美元。

So connectivity, that's the Starlink component of the business, is actually much much larger than the launch space business at $5,200,000,000 for the quarter versus 1,800,000,000 for space, but then Superintelligence coming in at over 7,500,000,000.

所以这就是这家公司现在的样子。

So this is what this company is now.

Lou，我原本以为SpaceX上市后会是一家太空公司，结果发现他们其实更像是一家新云公司。

Lou, I thought SpaceX was gonna be a space company when they came public and it turns out they're really more of a neo cloud.

如果我直接叫它AI而不是超级智能，会不会算叛国啊？

Am I risking treason if I just call it AI and not super intelligence here?

我知道他们改了那个……

I know they they renamed the...

他们确实很看重这个。

They were really leaning into that.

对。

Yes.

但你看，这其实一直就是个带点太空副业的云端公司。

But look, this is and it has been, it's a Neo Cloud with a space side hustle.

他们就是这样。

That is what they are.

AI正在带来……

AI is delivering...

AI……

AI...

抱歉，马斯克，我说的是AI，它正在带来收入的增长。

I'm sorry, Elon, I said AI, is delivering the revenue growth.

星链在赚钱，所以太空是有理由的。

Starlink is generating the profit, so there is a reason for space.

但即便如此，那也是一家通信公司。

But even then, that's a communications company.

顺便说一句，那是一家通信公司，马斯克预计它未来几年的收入会比现在的T-Mobile还多，这挺厉害的。

That's a communications company, by the way, that Elon projects is gonna have more revenue in the years to come than T-Mobile does now, which is kind of, you know, awesome.

我猜所有擎天柱机器人都会有手机吧？

I guess all the Optimus robots will have cell phones?

是不是就是这个想法？

Is is is is that the idea?

嗯，那倒不是

Well, that's not

差得不远，卢，因为代理式AI的互联网流量预计会激增，这不只是SpaceX在说。

too far off, Lou, because agentic AI Internet traffic is predicted to surge, and this isn't just something SpaceX is saying.

Cloudflare也在说，而且Cloudflare正在优化自己，以便能处理这些来自代理在互联网上到处游荡所带来的流量增长，但事实并非如此。

Cloudflare is saying it too, and Cloudflare trying to optimize what it does so that it can handle all this increased traffic from agents roaming around the Internet, but no.

我……

I...

不过我们会给你展示这个的。

But we'll show you shotgun this.

不过，流量和每个用户的收入不是一回事。

Traffic is not the same as revenue per user, though.

我怀疑所有这些AI机器人都会有一个50美元的T-Mobile套餐。

I doubt that all of these AI bots will have a $50 T Mobile plan.

所以这里还是有点奇怪的推断。

So there's still sort of a weird extrapolation going on.

听着，对我来说最有趣的部分是在AI领域。

Look, the most interesting part of this to me, it was in the AI kind of realm.

大公司们正在做出两种截然不同的赌注，其中一种将会是错的。

There are two very different bets being made by big companies, and one of them is going to be wrong.

而这一切都归结于合同期限。

And it's all coming down to contract length.

马斯克说过，我们认为算力的价格只会加速下降。

Elon has said, we think the price of compute is only gonna accelerate.

他们打算用他们的Neo Cloud签短期合同。

They are going for short term contracts with their Neo Cloud.

亚马逊那边则试图尽可能高、尽可能久地锁定价格，因为他们不认同这个观点。

Amazon is across the way trying to lock it in as high as they can for as long as they can, because they don't share that belief.

像Meta这样的人在外面说，看，这在一定程度上是有道理的，因为我们将有剩余容量可以出售。

People like Meta are out there saying, look, this partially makes sense because we're gonna have excess capacity to sell.

其他人则说，这里有人搞错了。

Other people are saying that someone's wrong here.

这里有人搞错了。

Someone's wrong here.

要么SpaceX应该趁现在还能锁定的时候锁定价格，要么亚马逊就会看起来很愚蠢，很可笑，因为他们没有意识到定价权只会到来。

Either SpaceX should be locking it in while they can, or Amazon is gonna look foolish, idiotic for not realizing pricing power is only going to come.

我不知道谁是对的。

I don't know who's right here.

我觉得听到META和其他公司说会有过剩产能，这让我有点偏向那种观点，但我不确定是否有人真正知道答案。不过让我觉得很有趣的是，这些公司之间的做法差异真的很大，而且最终会有一方比另一方做得更好。

I think listening to META and others say we're going to have excess capacity kind of makes me biased, but I I don't know if anyone knows, but it's really interesting to me that that is a huge just distinction between what some of these companies are doing, and it's going to work out better for one of them than the other.

卢，听一下电话会议吧。

Lou, listen to the conference call.

我仔细看了细节。

I I went through the details.

有意思的是，他们一开始讲的是太空项目和他们做的那些酷炫的事情，但随后你看看数字就会发现，那其实，就像你说的，对他们来说只是个副业。

It was interesting that they've started with the space stuff and all the cool things they were doing, then you look at the numbers and go, that's actually, like you said, kind of a side business for them.

但埃隆·马斯克明确提到要增加20吉瓦的产能，那大概是5000亿美元的资本支出，甚至可能达到5000亿到1万亿美元的资本支出。

But Elon Musk has put explicitly talked about adding 20 gigawatts, which would be about $500,000,000,000 in CapEx, 500 to to $1,000,000,000,000 in CapEx.

他还说，到明年年底，也就是2027年底，他们的年化收入可能会达到5000亿到1万亿美元。

Also said they may hit 500,000,000,000 to $1,000,000,000,000 in revenue run rate by the end of next year, by the end of twenty twenty seven.

那真是巨大的增长，

That's great growth

如果真能实现的话。

if it happens.

如果真能实现的话，那增长确实惊人。

That is phenomenal growth if it happens.

不过我想先补充一些背景信息。

But I wanted to go through some context.

如果你关注埃隆·马斯克和他的公司还不到十年，那我们来给这次电话会议上的这些说法加点背景。

If you have not been following Elon Musk and his companies for more than a decade, let's put some context to some of these claims that were made on this conference call.

2019年，他说到2020年底会有100万辆机器人出租车上路。

In 2019, he said that 1,000,000 robo taxis would be on the road by the end of twenty twenty.

这显然没有发生。

That obviously didn't happen.

他说特斯拉到2030年每年能生产2000万辆汽车。

He said that Tesla could produce 20,000,000 vehicles annually by 2030.

他们从来没超过200万辆。

They never passed 2,000,000 vehicles.

2022年，他说未来可预见的时间内，收入每年增长50%。

Said that they would increase revenue 50% annually for the foreseeable future in 2022.

他们2022年做到了，但之后就再也没实现过。

They did that in 2022, have not done it since then.

事实上，特斯拉2025年的营收是负的。

In fact, revenue at Tesla was negative in 2025.

你可以一路追溯到SolarCity时代。

You could all go all the way back to Solar City.

那是我真正开始报道这家公司的时候。

That was when, you know, I really started covering the company.

我记得那次发布会，他们谈到了太阳能屋顶，以及所有关于太阳能屋顶的承诺，但那些承诺从未兑现。

I remember the the presentation where they talked about the solar roof and all the promises about the solar roof that never happened.

他们现在甚至都不生产太阳能屋顶了。

They're not even making the solar roof anymore.

所以，Lou，当你看到这些电话会议上的评论时，我知道他总是发表夸张的言论，而且从方向上来看，特斯拉、SpaceX这些公司大体上确实朝着他说的方向走，但我们现在似乎到了一个节点，这些公司的投资规模和价值比以往任何时候都要高出好几个数量级。

So, Lou, when you look at these comments on these conference calls, I know that he's always made extravagant comments and directionally, Tesla, SpaceX, all these companies kind of go in the direction that he says, but it seems like we're at a point now where the scale of the investment and the value of these companies is just orders of magnitude higher than we've ever seen.

所以，如果事情没有按照他设想的那样发展，投资者今天面临的风险似乎更大了。

So it seems like a bigger risk for investors today if this doesn't play out the way that he sees.

而且，你进入时的估值也更高。

And also, you're at a higher valuation going in.

即使一切顺利，可以说，投资者从这里还能获得什么收益呢？

Even if it all works out, arguably, what's the upside for investors from here?

记住特斯拉，特斯拉刚出来的时候，市值才几十亿美元。

Remember Tesla, when Tesla came out, it was worth a couple billion dollars.

不是几万亿。

Not a couple trillion.

不过，这里有个辩护，或者说看好的一面是，我们谁都不知道AI市场会是什么样子，无论是物理AI，还是AI到底会带来什么。

Here's the defense of it though, think, or the bull side of it is, is that we, none of us, none of us know what the AI market's going to look like, whether it's physical AI, exactly what will come from AI.

那里有巨大的潜力。

There is a ton of potential there.

那里有很多实质内容。

There's a lot of there there.

所以完全有理由说，这项技术是一个足够大的进步，它将创造数量级的新经济价值，用你引用的埃隆最喜欢的词来说。

So there is well within reason to say that this technology is enough of a step up that it'll create orders of magnitude, to use your phrasing of Elon's favorite words, of new economic value.

所以我不想太轻率地否定它，但从现在开始，很多事情必须顺利推进，就这么简单。

So I don't wanna be too dismissive of it, but a lot has to go right from here, period.

乔恩，你听到那些巨大的预测时是怎么想的？

Jon, what do you think when you hear those huge projections?

嗯，我想先澄清一点。

Well, I do wanna clarify one thing.

是的，20吉瓦确实是埃隆·马斯克特别提到的，但他对真的能启动那么多其实没抱太大希望。

Yes, 20 gigawatts was specifically mentioned by Elon Musk, but he really doesn't have a lot of hope that they're actually gonna turn that much on.

他们实际上目标是启动10吉瓦，也就是一半，那20吉瓦这个数字是从哪来的呢？

They're actually aiming to turn on 10 gigawatts, so half of that, and where does the 20 gigawatt number come from?

基本上就是说，听着，我们在获取供应方面太困难了，所以我们试着锁定20吉瓦的供应，希望能拿到足够启动10吉瓦的量，我觉得这对我们的听众来说其实非常重要。

Essentially saying, listen, we are struggling so much to get supply that we're trying to lock up 20 gigawatts of supply so that we can hopefully get enough to turn on 10, and I think that that is actually pretty important for our listeners here.

我们确实投资了很多隐形公司，很多卖铲子的玩法，我们也讨论过一些公司现在可能超量订购，试图确保供应，但并没有真正打算全部启动。

We do invest in a lot of hidden companies, a lot of picks and shovels plays, and we have talked a little bit about maybe companies are over ordering right now, trying to secure supply, and they don't really have intentions to turn it all on.

现在，这基本上证实了那个方向，具体提到了诸如冷却这样的东西，而且冷却领域有很多参与者。

Now, that's kind of confirming that direction, and specifically mentioning things such as cooling, and there are many players in the cooling space.

所以如果我现在要投资那些公司的话，像维谛技术，我会非常谨慎，至少要把这个因素纳入对公司的评估中，想想看有没有潜在的积压订单，也就是公司可能过度下单，而实际需要启用的容量远低于他们目前订购的。

So I would, if I'm investing in some of those companies right now, Vertiv comes to mind, I would be very cautious and very, at least incorporating this into my view of the company as I assess risks, is there any potential backlog here that that is just a company over ordering, should try to turn on far less than what they're they're ordering for right now?

所以这是需要注意的一点。

So that is one thing to keep in mind.

不过要说的是，如果他们真能启用10吉瓦，那将是目前启用量的三倍多。

Now, will say if they turn on 10 gigawatts, that is more than three x what they have turned on right now.

所以，确实，需求端看起来是很乐观的，但问题是，这是不是太快太多了？

So, yeah, clearly, bullish on the demand side, but, yeah, is that too much too fast?

补充一下背景，10吉瓦……

And for context, 10 gigawatt...

总共包括所有能源的吉瓦数，大概相当于5000亿美元的总投资。

Gigawatts in total, including all the energy, would be about $500,000,000,000 worth of total investment.

而且还有其他所有超大规模数据中心运营商，他们明年每家也都在启用，我想大概每家最多10吉瓦。

And you've got all the other hyperscalers who are turning on, up to, I think, about up to 10 gigawatts each next year as well.

所以市场上会有大量供应涌入。

So a lot of supply coming into the market.

我们要看看需求是否足够，以及价格是多少。

We're gonna see whether there is enough demand and at what price.

我觉得这是另外一回事。

I think that's the other thing.

当然。

Sure.

所有这些计算需求都存在……

There's demand for all of this commute...

算力。

Compute.

但价格是每兆瓦50美元吗？

But is it at $50 a megawatt?

还是每兆瓦10美元？

Is it at $10 a megawatt?

这将决定这些公司的盈利能力。

That's gonna determine how profitable these companies are.

我们回来之后，会聊更多关于SpaceX的新闻，可能会合并……

When we come back, we're gonna talk about more SpaceX news potentially merge...

和特斯拉合并。

Merging with Tesla.

你正在收听的是Motley Fool和Gems Investing。

You're listening to Motley Fool and Gems Investing.

欢迎回到节目。

Welcome back to the show.

当SpaceX上市时，我想很多人以为他们最终会和特斯拉合并。

When SpaceX came public, I think a lot of people thought that they would eventually merge with Tesla.

我们可能正在朝那个方向发展。

We may be moving in that direction.

Lou，两家公司都成立了特别委员会，来研究合并的可能性。

Lou, we've got both companies having special committees to look at potentially merging.

我年纪够大了，还记得SolarCity那笔交易，当时就是随便摆几个数字，找几个银行家签字就完事了。

I'm old enough to remember when, you know, the the SolarCity deal happened and it was kinda just kind of wave some numbers around, get some bankers to sign off on it.

我们现在是不是正朝着那个方向走？

Is that kinda where we're heading here?

这已经是板上钉钉的事了，只是走个形式而已。

This is a done deal, it's just a matter of dotting the i's and crossing the t's.

我还不确定这是不是板上钉钉的事，虽然我……

I I don't know if it's a done deal yet, although I am...

让我直说吧，特斯拉应该成为合并后的名字，对吧，因为它结合了两者，也体现了他们的所在地，我觉得他可能只会叫它X，但我更喜欢特斯拉。

Let me just put it forward, Tesla should be the name, right, because it combines both, it talks about where they're based, I think he'll just probably call it x, but I like Tesla.

不过，确实……

But yeah, look, there is definitely...

埃隆说两家公司都成立了委员会，所以他们肯定在考虑这件事，我觉得这是世界上最公开的秘密了。

Elon said that both companies have formed committees, so they are definitely, I think the worst kept secret in the world that they're at least thinking about it.

我会告诉你一个我认为合理的理由，也会告诉你一个我不确定……的理由。

I'll give you a reason why I think it makes sense, and I'll also give you a reason why I don't know if...

我相信这是板上钉钉的事。

I believe it's a done deal.

我认为合并的最大原因是，特斯拉的投资者中，很少有人仅仅是因为想投资汽车行业才投资特斯拉的。

I think the biggest reason to do it is that there are very, I think, very few investors in Tesla that are investors just because they want to be auto industry investors.

而且我认为SpaceX的投资者中，也没有多少人只是觉得，嗯，我对火箭技术或者星链特别感兴趣。

And I don't think there's a lot of investors in SpaceX that are just like, well, I'm really interested in rocketry or neo clouds.

我认为两家公司的绝大多数投资者都是被埃隆·马斯克创造长期价值的能力所吸引。

I think that the vast majority of investors in both companies are drawn to Elon Musk's ability to create long term value.

如果真是这样，如果这一点比业务的具体细节更重要，而且我认为特斯拉股票的历史已经证明了这一点，那为什么还要有两个相互竞争的股票代码，基本上都在追踪埃隆的大脑呢？

And if that's it, if that matters more than the particulars of a business, and I think Tesla's history as a stock has proven that out, why should there be two competing tickers that basically track Elon's brain?

好的。

Alright.

所以我认为从大局来看，合并确实是有道理的。

So I think it does make sense to just big picture.

埃隆只是一个人。

Elon is one person.

就让他在一个屋檐下做他想做的事，创造经济价值吧。

Just let him do what he wants to do under one roof and generate economic value.

至于为什么不行，我也不太清楚，在正常时期，因为我不确定现在算不算正常时期，特斯拉中国就那么摆在那儿。

The reason why not, and I don't know, like in normal times, because I don't know if this is normal times, but Tesla China is just sitting there.

在正常时期，绝对不可能有国防承包商……

In normal times, there's no way a defense contractor...

而且你要知道，SpaceX 可是主要的国防承包商，最近乌克兰那边的新闻头条也提到了这一点。

And mind you, SpaceX is a major defense contractor as the headlines with Ukraine have suggested in recent days.

这根本没法合理化。

There's no way you can justify that.

我觉得中国也不喜欢这个想法。

I don't think China likes the idea either.

中国甚至都没用上星链。

China hasn't even improved Starlink.

一个美国主要的国防承包商，把相当一部分的制造基地和业务放在一个并非美国坚定盟友的国家，这种想法在以前简直是疯了。

The idea that a major US defense contractor would have a substantial part of their manufacturing base and operations in a country that is not a firm US ally, that's crazy pills talk until now.

所以我觉得有办法绕过这个问题，也许我们就睁一只眼闭一只眼。

So I think there's ways to get around that and maybe we look the other way.

也许他们就是不想再做汽车业务了。

Maybe they just don't want to be in the auto business anymore.

我确实能想象到一个世界，合并后的公司直接把汽车业务剥离出去。

I can actually see a world where the combined company just spins off its automaker.

所以是有办法绕过去的，但看起来这才是他们讨论时真正的大难题，比股东担忧还要棘手。

So there are ways around it, but that seems to be the real elephant in the room as they're talking about this, more so than shareholder concerns.

你怎么看，乔恩？

What do think, Jon?

嗯，你合并公司是因为你相信一加一等于三，对吧？

Well, I mean, you combine a company because you believe that one plus one equals three, right?

有成本协同效应，还有……

There are cost synergies, there are...

也许你是想干掉一个竞争对手，与其争夺客户群，不如现在合作。

Maybe you're taking out a competitor and and going after, you know, rather than competing over a customer base, now you're working together.

但我觉得对这两家公司来说，股东们看不出合并有什么特别大的意义。

I don't really see that here for these two companies, where it makes a whole lot of sense for shareholders why we would combine the businesses here.

这看起来更像是为了讲故事，或者甚至有点是为了控制权。

It does seem to be more of a story situation, or maybe even a little bit more of a control thing.

如果他们合并，埃隆·马斯克将拥有合并后实体非常强大的，可能超过一半的股份。

I mean, if they were to combine, then Elon Musk would own a very, very strong, perhaps more than half of the combined entity.

所以，这似乎更关乎给他更多的创意控制权。

And so, that seems to have a little bit more to do here, give him more creative control.

而且，正如卢所说，如果你投资了这两家公司中的任何一家，也许你确实希望埃隆·马斯克对合并后的实体有更多的控制权。

And to Lou's point, if you're investing in either of these companies, maybe you do want Elon Musk to have more controls of the combined entity.

所以，这确实很有道理，但是，是的。

And so, that that can make a lot of sense, but yeah.

从实际商业角度来看，这如何让任何一家公司变得更好，我不太明白，但如果这没有发生，我会感到惊讶。

From an actual business perspective, how this makes either company better, I don't quite see that, but I would be surprised if it didn't happen.

你不太相信火箭车吗？

You're not a big believer in rocket cars?

哦。

Oh.

这就是协同效应。

That's Synergy right there.

火箭。

The rocket.

这就是协同效应。

That's the Synergy.

但是你看，他们已经有这个了。

Well, see, but they already have that.

我想这就是我的观点。

I guess that's my point.

他们作为独立的公司，已经能够从SpaceX借用这项技术了，所以我不明白合并的好处在哪里。

They already were able to borrow that technology from SpaceX as separate companies, and so I don't see where the benefit comes in.

好吧，我们走着瞧。

Well, we'll see.

看起来这已经是板上钉钉的事了，就像Solar City的交易一样，我觉得在运营上并没有按计划进行，但对股东来说还是有利的。

It seems like it is, foretold at this point just like the Solar City deal that I I I don't think operationally that worked out the way that it it planned, but it worked out for shareholders.

一如既往，节目中提到的人可能对他们谈论的股票有利益关系，而The Motley Fool可能对这些股票有正式的建议或反对意见，所以不要仅仅根据你听到的内容来买卖股票。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

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对于Lou Whiteman、Jon Quast和玻璃后面的Dan Boyd，我是Travis Hoium。

For Lou Whiteman, Jon Quast, and Dan Boyd behind the glass, I'm Travis Hoium.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

我们明天在这里见。

We'll see you here tomorrow.