特斯拉的Robotaxi“无事件”与GPT-6已发布！

特斯拉昨晚有个活动，我们没被邀请。

Tesla had an event last night, we were not invited.

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我是 Travis Hoium。

I'm Travis Hoium.

今天和我一起的是 Lou Whiteman 和 Jon Quast。

I'm joined today by Lou Whiteman and Jon Quast.

各位，我们在周三的节目里预告了特斯拉昨晚关于机器人出租车的活动。

And guys, we previewed on the Wednesday show Tesla's event that they had last night about the robotaxi.

这件事有很多炒作。

There's a lot of hype around this.

Lou，不仅我们没被邀请，我觉得谁都没被邀请。

Lou, not only were we not invited, it I don't think anybody was invited.

没有直播，什么都没有。

No livestream, no nothing.

对。

Yeah.

我有点搞不懂了。

I'm confused here.

是吧？

Okay?

因为我觉得，我不想因为一个宣传活动的做法去批评一家公司。

Because I get I don't want to slam a company for doing a publicity event.

宣传活动非常重要。

Publicity events are very, very important.

但如果你想搞宣传活动，就应该想办法获得宣传效果。

But if you want to do a publicity event, you should try to get publicity.

你应该做直播。

You should do a live stream.

他们应该像之前那样，把这个活动炒作好几个星期。

You should just like they hyped this for weeks.

还有那种比赛，比如你在奥斯汀坐一次车，就有机会参加。

There was contests of like, if you take a ride in Austin, you can get to go.

结果活动当晚，马斯克根本没露面。

And then night of the event, Elon Musk didn't even show up.

他不仅没露面，连发推文的劲儿都提不起来。

Not only didn't he show up, he barely had the energy to live tweet it.

他就转发了那么一条推文。

He did like one retweet or so.

何必呢？

Why bother?

我就是搞不懂。

I just I don't understand.

他们基本上就是宣布，我们去年宣布的事情现在真的要做了，而且会开始逐步推进。

They basically announced that we are actually doing what we announced last year, and it'll start rolling up.

你知道那种‘本来一封邮件就能搞定’的事吗？

You know the whole this could have been an email thing?

这本来发个新闻稿就行了，各位。

This could have been a press release, guys.

乔恩，有没有更乐观的看法？

Jon, is there a more bullish way to look at this?

嗯，我觉得我们有点自相矛盾，一边说炒作了好几周，一边又说活动当时没怎么炒作。

Well, I I think that we're talking out of both sides of our mouth here saying there was hype for weeks, and then yet it wasn't hyped on the time of the event.

我觉得他们是按自己的节奏来的。

I mean, I think that they were playing this the way that they wanted to play it.

这甚至能叫发布吗？

This is it even fair to call it a launch?

真的算不上。

It it really isn't.

这其实就是慢慢铺开而已。

It's a slow rollout is what it is.

所以我觉得，不把这事儿炒得太热反而更合理，因为我们不会在全国所有城市投放几百辆车。

And so I actually think it makes more sense to not overly hype this because we are not going out across the country in all cities with a fleet of hundreds of vehicles.

如果炒得太热，期望值就会拉得太高，然后就会让人失望。

If you do hype it too much, then you set the expectations too high, and then there's disappointment

相比之下。

by comparison.

但埃隆这十多年来不一直在这么做吗？

Elon's been doing for a decade or more though?

我是说，这就是最初的机器人出租车，对吧。

I mean I mean, this is the the original robot robotaxi yeah.

最初的机器人出租车发布会是在2024年。

The the original robotaxi event was in 2024.

那是两年前的事了。

That was two years ago.

我记得他们大概在2018年或2019年就开始谈论机器人出租车了。

They started talking about the robotaxi, I believe in 2018 or 2019.

不是现在这种形式，但机器人出租车和拥有这样一个车队的想法。

Not in its current form, but the idea of the robotaxi and having this fleet.

我们差不多已经过了十年了，其他公司的车队规模要大得多。

We're almost a decade after that, and other companies have much, much bigger fleets.

我觉得我们现在就是处于这个阶段。

I I it's just we are at this point.

我之所以想在节目里提这个，是因为我们现在已经到了自动驾驶汽车真正成为现实的阶段。

And the reason that I wanted to bring this up on the show is we are at the point where autonomous vehicles are real.

特斯拉本应该拥有巨大的先发优势。

And Tesla was supposed to be have this huge first mover advantage.

他们本应该拥有巨大的成本优势。

They were supposed to have a huge cost advantage.

一旦你同时拥有这两样东西，再加上网络效应，那就没人能追得上了。

And once you have both of those things and you have this network effect, now no one can catch up.

但看起来他们好像把这一切都搞砸了。

And it seems like they've kind of fumbled that.

所以，Jon，我们现在是不是到了他们必须拿出真本事的时候了？

So, Jon, is are we at the point where they've really got to put up?

或者说，你看，Waymo 正在扩大他们的车队规模，而且大幅降低成本。

Or, you know, Waymo is out there scaling their vehicles and they're cutting their costs dramatically.

我觉得硬件，有传言说自动驾驶车辆的硬件成本。

I think the hardware the rumors were the hardware costs for autonomous vehicles.

基本上，在车辆本身的基础上，从大约 15 万美元。

So basically on top of the vehicle itself went from about a $150,000

降到了大约 2 万美元。

down to about $20,000.

硬件就是这样运作的。

This is the way hardware works.

随着时间推移会越来越便宜。

It gets less expensive over time.

所以，他们有更多的传感器。

So, they have more sensors.

但如果成本差距很小而且在不断缩小，那特斯拉本该有的优势似乎正在我们眼前消失。

But if the cost differential is very small and coming down, it it seems like that advantage that Tesla should have is sort of evaporating in front of our eyes.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，这就是为什么我们现在都开日产聆风。

I mean, this is why we all drive Nissan Leafs right now.

对吧？

Right?

我是说，因为特斯拉搞砸了它的先发优势。

I mean, because Tesla fumbled its first mover advantage.

对吧？

Right?

我是说，日产聆风比Model S早出来，你可以说它有先发优势，但最后赢的是特斯拉。

I mean, Nissan Leaf came out before Model s, and you could say that it had the first mover advantage, but Tesla is the one that won out in the end.

听我说。

Listen.

随便你怎么说，但特斯拉有一件事做得非常好。

Call it what you will, but Tesla understands one thing very well.

它懂消费者的心理，不一定是最好的产品赢，也不一定是最早的产品赢。

It understands the psychology of the consumer, not necessarily that the best product wins or the first product wins.

很多时候，最受期待、最有感觉的那个产品才会赢。

The most anticipated the the one with the best vibe is the one that wins a lot of times.

这让我有点想起以前那个“我是Mac”的广告。

It it reminds me a little bit of the old I'm a Mac.

“我是PC”的广告。

I'm a PC commercials.

对吧？

Right?

那些广告实际上告诉了我们关于苹果MacBook或微软PC的什么规格信息呢？

What was that actually telling us about the specifications of an Apple MacBook or a Microsoft PC?

其实什么都没说，但其中一个让人觉得更酷一点。

Really nothing, but one was perceived as a little bit cooler.

而且我确实认为，一旦CyberCab上市，会有更多人选择它。

And I do think that there are people who win the CyberCab is available a lot more.

我觉得会有很多人排队买CyberCab，因为相比Waymo，他们更想坐这个。

I there's gonna be a lot of people lining up for cyber cab because that is the one that they wanna ride in over a Waymo.

这就是为什么我九岁的孩子会数路上的Cybertruck，但我从来没跟他提过Cybertruck。

It's it's why my nine year old counts Cybertrucks on the road, but I've never told them anything about Cybertruck.

不过我们还没真正搞清楚昨晚的目的是什么。

We we still haven't really explained what the purpose was last night, though.

我是说，你看。

I mean, look.

这些我们之前都知道了。

We knew all this before.

对，我是说，恭喜。

And, yeah, I mean, congratulations.

你连你的CEO都没请来。

You didn't even get your CEO to show up.

这就好比苹果发布新手机，然后说，手机将在

This would be like Apple announcing a new phone and then saying, the phone's gonna

三天后发布。

be launched in three days.

手机将在

The phone's gonna be

两天后发布。

launched in two days.

手机将在一天后发布。

Phone's gonna launched in one day.

我们要为手机发布办一场盛大的活动。

We're gonna do a big, big event for the phone launch.

然后就在那儿完全不提这事儿。

And then just not talking about it right there.

你说得对，Jud。

You're right, Jud.

所以之前有个苹果对PCC的广告。

So there was the Apple versus PCC commercial.

苹果花了时间和钱，真的把这个广告推到了大家面前。

Apple took the time to spend money to actually get that commercial out in front of people.

我有点困惑的是，他们开了这个发布会，但之后又好像把它藏起来了。作为投资者，我不知道该不该从中解读出什么。

My just kind of confusion here is that they had this event, but then they kind of hid it, which as an investor, I don't know if I should read anything into that or not.

有意思的是，最支持特斯拉的人反而说，我不知道他们昨晚为什么搞这个。

It's funny, the biggest Tesla advocates coming out of this were like, I don't know why they did this last night.

我们什么也没学到。

We didn't learn anything.

股价因此跌了6%。

Stock is down 6% on it.

就是感觉很奇怪，我也说不上来。

It's just very I don't know.

如果他们能做到的话，这可能会是个很棒的产品。

It could turn out being a great product if they get there.

特拉维斯，你说得对，我觉得更大的担忧是，也许这就是他们承认的。

And Travis, to your point, I think the bigger fear is that, and maybe this is what they're acknowledging.

我觉得发布会已经不管用了。

I don't think events work anymore.

以前发布会很酷，因为那时候路上没有车，他们只是给你看CADCAM图像，展示这会有多酷。

Events were really cool when nobody had cars on the road and they were just giving you CADCAM images of how cool this was going to be.

现在，我出门就能看到实际应用。

Right now, I can go out my door and see this in practice.

所以如果有人用PPT展示他们的服务会有多酷，那可能对小孩有用，但对投资者没用。

And so for someone to do a PowerPoint presentation about how cool their service is going to be, that might work for kids, but that's not going to work for investors.

你得真正拿出东西来，当你有了——等等，4000多辆，我刚才出去，路上就遇到了三四辆。

You actually have to get when you have what was wait a minute, 4,000 something, I was just out, I passed three or four of them on the road.

我觉得现在能打动投资者的是，乔恩说得对，等到那一天，如果他们的车队在美国各地大规模出现，他们可能有更酷的产品，可能会赢。

I think what's going to impress investors now is, Jon's right, when that day comes, if they're out there in force with fleets in the thousands all over The US, they might have the better cooler product and might win.

但在那之前，我觉得这些发布会没什么用。

But until then, I don't think that these events serve a purpose.

我觉得他们只是在提醒我们，他们落后了。

I think they're just reminding us of the fact that they are behind.

好，乔恩，我们再来看看商业模式，因为特斯拉仍然是一家市值1.2万亿美元的公司。

Well, Jon, let's go to the business model too, because Tesla is still a $1,200,000,000,000 company.

它是“七巨头”之一。

It's part of the Meg seven.

我们之所以专门讨论这家公司，是有原因的。

There's a reason that we're talking about this company specifically.

如果你看看五年前特斯拉的故事，我记得我听过那些电话会议，埃隆·马斯克和他的团队基本上是在嘲笑整个行业，说你们将来都得来授权我们的FSD。

And if you look at what the story was for Tesla five years ago I mean, I remember listening to those conference calls, and Elon Musk and team, that entire team was basically laughing at the entire industry going, you guys are all going to be licensing FSD in the future.

你们只是还没意识到而已。

You just don't realize it yet.

现在到了2026年。

Here we are in 2026.

不仅没人授权FSD，似乎也没人感兴趣，而且其他公司都在推出至少L2级别的自动驾驶汽车，有类似FSD的驾驶辅助系统，或者直接上L4，甚至L3，像奔驰、宝马也在推出这些功能。

Not only is no one licensing FSD, doesn't seem like anyone is interested in licensing FSD, and everyone else is launching vehicles that are at the very least level two autonomy, where you have this driver assist system a little bit like FSD is today, or going all the way to level four, which is, and even level three, which is what companies like Mercedes have, I think BMW is launching some of those features.

这些功能真的开始出现在普通消费者的车上了，更不用说Zoox、Waymo这些公司了，Main Mobility也是其中之一。

These features are really starting to roll out in consumer vehicles on top of the Zooxes of the world, the Waymos of the world, Main Mobility is another one that's around.

所以看起来五年前的那个论点并没有像你想象的那样发展。

So it it just seems like the the thesis of five years ago is just not playing out the way that you would think.

它仍然是一辆很酷的车。

It is still a cool vehicle.

我的孩子们也喜欢Cybertruck，但这并不意味着他们卖了很多。

My kids also count Cybertrucks, but that doesn't mean that they've sold a lot of them.

我认为在长期市场份额方面，心智占有率很重要。

I think that mind share is important when it comes to long term market share.

但你说得对，Travis，我最近听人说，每英里的路旁边就有两英里的沟。

But to your point, Travis, I heard someone say recently for every mile of road, there's two mile a ditch.

所以我想避开两边的沟。

And so I do wanna stay out of the ditch on both sides.

一边的沟是说特斯拉是明确的市场赢家，而且你对此无能为力。

The the ditch on one side is to say that Tesla is the clear market winner, and there's something you can do about it.

而且你说的对，五年前高管们就是这么说的。

And to your point, that's kind of how the executives were talking about it five years ago.

另一边的坑我也想避开，就是说特斯拉已经无关紧要了，因为Waymo领先了。

The other side of the ditch that I want to stay out of here is that Tesla is irrelevant because Waymo is ahead.

我觉得它非常重要。

I think it's incredibly relevant.

也许它不会把全自动驾驶软件授权给其他汽车公司。

Maybe it doesn't license its full self driving software to the other car companies.

也许他们会自己开发，而且我觉得更有可能的是，每家公司都会有自己的驾驶数据，用来构建自己的模型。

Maybe they do build out their and in fact, I think that's even more likely that each of these companies is going to have its own driver data that it can build its own models off of.

我觉得这完全合理。

I think that that's perfectly reasonable.

但总有一天监管问题会解决，我们就能真正把车卖给所有人，到处都能卖。

But there will come a time when things are solved on the regulatory front and we can actually sell to everyone everywhere.

这就是和iPhone发布会相比最大的不同。

And that is really the big difference when you talk about an iPhone event.

对吧？

Right?

当年卖iPhone有什么限制吗？

What were the restrictions on selling an iPhone?

没有。

None.

你可以卖给任何人，在任何地方。

You could sell to anybody anywhere.

但现在，你不能随便把自动驾驶出租车卖给任何人，任何地方。

Right now, you can't sell a self driving taxi to anybody anywhere.

有规则限制。

There are rules.

当这些监管障碍被清除时，我觉得那时候谁在抢占市场份额才更有意义。

When those regulatory hurdles are cleared, that is when I think that this becomes a lot more meaningful who is taking share.

也许那时候办个发布会是个好时机。

Maybe that'll be a good time for an event.

这就对了。

There you go.

关于特斯拉，确实有很多话题，但我认为这是最令人兴奋的领域之一，因为我们看到越来越多这样的自动驾驶汽车出现在各地。

Well, a lot to talk about with Tesla, but I I think this is one of the more exciting spaces because we are seeing more of these autonomous vehicles all over the place.

这将是一个巨大的市场。

And it is going to be a huge market.

问题只是投资者如何能从中赚钱。

It's just a question of how are investors gonna be able to make money on it.

我们回来之后，会讨论GTA六的发布。

When we come back, we're gonna talk about the launch of GTA six.

抱歉。

Sorry.

是GPT六。

It's GPT six.

GTA是

GTA is

还没上线呢。

still not up.

GTA。

GTA.

这个我们稍后再谈。

More on that in a moment.

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You're listening to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

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Welcome back to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

Jon，我们确实还没等到GTA六。

Jon, we did get we we're not getting GTA six quite yet.

不过几个月后我很期待聊这个话题。

I I am excited to talk about that in a couple of months.

但GPT六，或者至少它的第一个版本，现在已经开始向一些企业客户推出了，这是昨天OpenAI宣布的。

But GPT six or at least the first version of that is now starting to roll out at least to some enterprise customers that was announced yesterday from OpenAI.

从发布来看挺有意思的，这是我摘录的一段话。

Interesting from the release, and here's here's the quote that I took from it.

它可以处理那些繁琐的任务，比如填写在线表格、更新CRM里的客户记录，还有整理你的日历，引用结束。

It can take away take care of tedious tasks like filling out online forms, updating customer records in a CRM, and organizing your calendar, end quote.

Jon，我们被承诺的是AGI，结果却得到了一个能帮我们填表格的机器人。

Jon, we were promised AGI, and we get a bot that can fill out forms for us.

它肯定不止这么简单。

It's definitely gonna be more powerful than that.

但对投资者来说，这真的有实质性的价值吗？

But is there really a there there for investors?

嗯，我觉得整个通用人工智能的讨论，就是AGI，挺搞笑的。

Well, I I think it's hilarious, the whole artificial general intelligence conversation, the AGI.

这当然和普通的AI不一样。

This is, of course, different from just regular AI.

AGI基本上就是AI在所有领域都比人类更聪明。

AGI is basically AI is smarter than humans in all domains.

它能把各个领域连接起来，真的能像人一样思考，甚至比人还厉害。

It can connect domains together, really kind of think like people but better.

OpenAI的总裁格雷格·布罗克曼说，欢迎来到AGI时代，还说这可能是AGI。

OpenAI president Greg Brockman is saying, welcome to the AGI era and saying this could be AGI.

山姆·奥特曼也说，也许有一天我们会回头看，意识到这一刻就是那个转折点。

And Sam Altman saying, maybe someday we're gonna look back at this and realize this was the moment.

听我说。

Listen.

抱歉。

I'm sorry.

如果真是AGI，我们一眼就能认出来。

If it's AGI, we're gonna know it when we see it.

对我来说，这恰恰说明它不是。

And to me, that's a tell that this ain't it.

在我看来，这恰恰说明他们还想搞IPO，不过也许我太愤世嫉俗了。

To me, it's a tell they still wanna do an IPO, but maybe I'm too cynical there.

对吧？

Right?

这倒可能是真的。

That's that's probably true.

我觉得这看起来像是这些公司之间来回较劲。

I this does seem like one of the it it does seem to Lou to me back and forth between all these different companies.

我们也可以把谷歌和Gemini拉进来讨论。

And we can bring Google and Gemini into this as well.

他们一直在推进他们的Flash模型。

They keep pushing forward with their their flash models.

那是我经常用的，因为它非常快，而且你知道，不花我什么钱。

That's what I use a lot because it's just very, very quick and and, you know, it doesn't cost me anything.

它包含在我已经付费的谷歌服务里。

It's included in whatever whatever Google things I'm paying for.

但看起来所有这些公司，包括这一家，都在向企业级市场发力。

But it seems like the push for all of these companies, and even with this one, is on that enterprise side.

这确实很能说明问题，这些公司的钱主要来自那里。

And that seems to be really telling that that's where the money is for these companies.

而且，我也不禁在想，当所有这些公司都试图上市时，如果它们都瞄准同一个企业客户和同样的编码应用，它们能分到多少钱呢？

And also, I have to wonder, as all of these companies try to IPO, how much money is there for them to grab if they're all going after that same enterprise customer, the same coding applications?

看起来就像是一大堆钱在追逐彩虹尽头的那一罐金子。

It it just seems like there there's a bunch of money chasing one pot at the end of the rainbow.

确实如此。

That's exactly.

特拉维斯，你这么说很有意思，因为实际上，这个GPT-6在编码方面并不比其他AI模型出色。

It's interesting that you say that, Travis, because, actually, this GPT-six isn't great at coding compared to other AI models that are out there.

事实上，如果我没记错的话，它只比GPT-5好一点点。

In fact, if I recall, barely better than GPT-five.

所以它在编码方面并不是特别突出。

So it's not really excelling in the coding aspect.

它是在其他一些领域表现出色。

It's excelling in some other areas.

但你说得对，如果目标是企业客户，那这似乎是你希望有显著进步的地方。

But to your point, if you're going after enterprise, that seems like something that maybe you wanted a step improvement in.

我们是个投资节目。

We're an investing show.

我不会假装懂这些，你也不想让我评判哪个模型最好、哪个最前沿、哪个能当你的虚拟朋友。

I'm not going to pretend to understand, and you don't want me judging which of these models is best and which one is bleeding edge and which one can be your imaginary friend.

但Travis，你说得对，我们确实需要看到收入。

But Travis, to your point, we do need to see revenue here.

我已经麻木了，每六个月就有一家公司说他们的东西是全世界最好的，没人能阻止，我们是远见者、大师之类的。

I'm numb from every six months, another one of these companies say, ours is the best thing in the world and nobody can stop it and we're visionaries and gurus or whatever.

我所知道的是，越来越多的企业正在想办法不用那些前沿模型、那些最尖端的模型来获得他们想要的生产力，Travis，就像你说的，flash模型已经够用了。

What I know is that increasingly the enterprises are finding ways to not use the frontier models, these bleeding edge models to generate the productivity they want, Travis, just like what you're saying, the flash models work good enough.

我敢大胆说一句，尽管这些新模型发布引起了那么多关注，但对企业来说，它们其实并不重要。

I am going to go out on a limb and say that for all of the attention that these new model releases get, they, for the businesses, don't really matter.

我觉得随着这些东西越来越好，可能越来越接近虚拟朋友的状态，人们就更没必要为最厉害的东西买单了，因为那些落后的模型也会不断进步。

I think that as these things get better, as they get maybe closer to imaginary friend status, there's going to be even less need to pay up for the most amazing thing because all of those trailing models are going to continue to get better as well.

我觉得这两件事可能都是真的。

I think that both things could be true.

GPT-6可能是最厉害的东西，但对于已经用上Claude的企业来说，并不足以让他们换过来。

GPT-six could be the most amazing thing out there, but yet not a reason for an enterprise that is already set up in Claude to shift.

更便宜的次一级模型，比如Meta的模型，现在感觉比那些高端的顶级模型更能带来收入。

Lesser model at cheaper prices, of the meta model, feels like a better model right now than bleeding edge as premium in terms of generating revenue.

这对一些专注于前沿技术的公司来说，可能是个真正的问题。

And that could be a real problem for some of these companies that are kind of focused on the bleeding edge.

关于这一点，有几个数据点。

A couple of data points on that.

多邻国，至少在一两年前，是OpenAI最大的token用户。

Duolingo, at least for a while, a year or two ago, was the biggest user of tokens from OpenAI.

他们在最近的一次电话会议上谈到，我们现在确实在某些事情上用高端模型，但大部分工作都是用便宜得多的模型，开源或者开放权重的模型来完成的。

They talked on their most recent call about how, you know what, we are now using high end models for certain things, but most of our work is being done with much less expensive models, open source or open weight models.

我们真的在优化成本。

We're really optimizing that cost.

所以那些钱不会流向那些前沿模型。

So that's not going to those frontier models.

另一个例子是优步。

The other one is Uber.

优步是那些说‘嘿’的公司之一。

Uber is one of the companies that say, hey.

我们年初就超了预算，但现在他们说‘嘿’。

We blew through our budget early in the year, but now they've said, hey.

我们实际上在用AI做更多事，但花费还是那么多。

We're actually doing more with AI, but we're spending the same amount.

所以我觉得我们得密切关注的是，今年下半年到2027年，这些企业的支出会怎么走。

So I think this is gonna be something we're gonna have to really keep an eye on is second half of the year into 2027, how does the spend for those enterprises go?

因为看起来2026年初支出涨得特别猛，但未来十八个月可能不会保持同样的趋势。

Because it seems like it went astronomically higher in earlier part of 2026, may not be on the same trend over the next eighteen months.

好的。

Alright.

Lou，我很快想提一下Adobe的变化。

Lou, quick I quickly wanna touch on the change with at Adobe.

这是我们过去几个月一直在关注的事情，但Adobe是那些被打击得很惨的股票之一。

This is something that we've been looking for over the past couple of months, but Adobe is one of those stocks that's been beaten up.

我觉得对很多投资者来说，它有点进入了价值投资的区域，所以真的很有意思。

I think it kinda falls into that value territory for a lot of investors, so really intriguing.

但他们确实宣布了一位新的CEO，而且是内部提拔的。

But they did announce a new CEO, stayed in house.

我们需要知道些什么？

What do we need to know?

市场显然不喜欢这个消息，今天下跌了7%，但今天所有软件股都在跌。

So the market doesn't like this apparently, down 7% today after the news, but all software stocks are down today.

所以我不确定该从中解读出多少信息。

So I don't know how much to read into that.

是的，这只股票一直在下滑。

Yeah, the stock's been on a slide.

自7月1日以来上涨了35%，但在过去五年里已经腰斩。

It is up 35% since July 1, but it's been cut in half over the last five years.

所以看你选哪个时间点。

So pick your timestamp.

坦白说，我在接近低点的时候买入了这只股票，因为我觉得那种说AI会抢走它生意的说法被夸大了。

Full disclosure, I bought into this near its lows on the kind of, I thought the AI is going to eat its lunch was overstated.

所以我当然希望它从现在开始往上涨，而不是往下跌。

So I am all for it going up from here and not down.

CEO的交接看起来是常规操作。

The CEO transition looks routine.

而且我觉得，这个问题终于有了答案，这是好事。

And I think it's good that there is like just the question has been answered.

一个在这个职位上干了二十年的人决定退休。

Someone who has been on the job twenty years decided to retire.

我觉得这没问题。

I think that's fine.

时机不太好，但我觉得这里没什么争议。

Timing isn't great, but I don't think there's controversy here.

新CEO看起来像是个过渡人物，但我觉得业务本身没问题。

CEO looks kind of new new person, kind of looks like a caretaker, but I think the business works.

对我来说，我在看这家公司今天的股价下跌前，预期市盈率只有11倍，我在想，AI会不会抢走它的饭碗？

For me, I'm looking at business trading at 11 times expected earnings before the fall today and asking, is AI going to eat its lunch?

也许长期来看会。

Maybe over time.

但我不觉得那些用Adobe产品的人，比如那些设计师啊，会急着说，哦，咱们随便写点代码就重新做一遍。

But I don't think people like damn boy behind the glass and all the people who use Adobe products professionally are in any hurry to say, oh, let's just code something up and do it again.

所以我觉得这里的用户粘性比我们想象的要强。

So I think there's more stickiness here than we think.

现在股价也不算太高。

It's not a while higher.

我很高兴这件事终于过去了，我希望接下来每个季度都能看到，天并没有塌下来。

I'm glad it's now in the rearview mirror, and I am hopeful that just quarter to quarter we can see the sky isn't falling.

如果是这样的话，我有没有提过预期市盈率只有11倍？

And if so, did I mention 11 times expected earnings?

对。

Yeah.

乔恩，我觉得估值的故事确实很重要，但对Adobe来说，更关键的问题是未来的商业模式会是什么样。

Jon, I do think that valuation story is really important, but also the question for Adobe is more about what are their what does their business model look like in the future?

如果你回到十五年前，那才是即将离任的CEO真正的创新之处，你知道吗。

And if you go back fifteen years, that was really what the innovation of the, you know, the outgoing CEO was, hey.

我们必须从在百思买卖盒装软件，转向订阅服务模式，这真的让公司起死回生。那么，在颠覆可能即将到来的环境下，选一个看守型CEO是正确的吗？

We gotta go from selling a a box in Best Buy to this subscription as a service model that really turned around the company, is a caretaker CEO the right choice in that environment where disruption could be on the horizon?

我们下周看Adobe发财报就知道了，但我怀疑这是个错误的决定。

We'll see when Adobe reports earnings next week, but I would I'm suspicious that it's the wrong move.

他们没选的那个人是大卫·瓦德瓦尼。

The guy that they passed over is David, Wadwani.

他负责Photoshop、Premiere、Acrobat、Firefly，基本上就是Adobe收入的主要来源。

He is the guy who is in charge of Photoshop, Premiere, Acrobat, Firefly, basically the things that generate most of Adobe's revenue.

我觉得今天市场反应的原因是他真的意外离开了公司，他说这是重新开始、寻找新机会的时候。

And I think what the market is reacting to today is he's actually unexpectedly leaving the company saying that this is a time for a fresh start, new opportunity.

他还说，这是一个罕见的时刻，技术不仅改变了我们创造的东西，也改变了公司的构建方式。

And he said this is a rare moment when technology changes, not just what we build, but how companies are built.

在我看来，这听起来像是有人急着去搞一个竞争产品，而且我确实怀疑杜安尼在被忽视后，可能会去一家人工智能公司，以便更好地与Adobe竞争。

To me, it sounds like there is somebody running out to vibe code up a competitive product, and I do I do have suspicions that what Duany is headed for an AI company to better compete with Adobe after being passed over.

这绝对是最值得关注的公司之一，因为当这些AI产品出来时，那些图像真的很吸引人，引起了很多人的注意。

Definitely one of the most fascinating companies to watch because when these AI products came out, it was those images that were really captivating that caught a lot of people's attention.

但就像卢说的，很多使用Adobe产品的人不会离开。

But like Lou said, a lot of the people that use Adobe's products are not going anywhere.

所以Adobe现在处于一个很有趣的位置。

So interesting place for Adobe to be in.

我们回来之后，会看看我们的十年水晶球。

When we come back, we're gonna look in our ten year crystal ball.

你正在收听Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing。

You're listening to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

欢迎回到Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing节目，在我们喜欢的环节中，

Welcome back to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing in a segment we like to

我们会玩得开心一点。

have a little bit of fun.

我想看看我们的水晶球。

And I wanted to look in our crystal ball.

我们已经讨论过人工智能和自动驾驶领域发生的几件大事。

We've talked about a couple of big things that are happening in artificial intelligence, in autonomous vehicles.

所以我想听听卢和乔恩对未来十年的预测，我们可以聊聊我们在寻找投资机会时是怎么考虑这些事情的，因为作为愚蠢的投资者，我们喜欢看这样的时间跨度。

So I want some ten year predictions from Lou and Jon, and we can kinda go through how we're thinking about the these things when we're looking for investment opportunities because this is the kind of time horizon that we like to look at as foolish investors.

那么，卢，十年后，也就是2036年，哪家公司的自动驾驶里程数会最多？特斯拉、Waymo，或者你可以选其他公司，但如果你选其他公司，你必须选一个具体的。

So, Lou, which company is going to have the most autonomous drive miles driven per year ten years from now, 2036, Tesla, Waymo, or you can take the field, but you have to pick someone else if you're going to take the field.

好的。

All right.

我要反驳一下乔恩之前说的，他说他认为各家汽车制造商都会拥有自己的技术。

So I'm going to push back on something Jon said earlier, where he was saying that he thinks that it's going that individual automakers are all going to have their own technology.

我认为，无论是技术还是零部件，汽车行业的长期历史就是标准化、商品化，然后继续前进。

I think that the long history, whether it's technology or parts in the automotive industry is that just normalize, commoditize, and move on.

所以我——

So I'm-

那就像模块化商业模式，比如今天的L1解决方案，大部分都来自Mobileye。

So that would be like the modular business model, for example, the level one solutions today, most of those come from Mobileye.

差不多是这样。

Something like that.

对。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我知道这跟雨刮器不一样，但我认为在这个行业里，创新变成商品化的历史很长，我不会假设例外。

Mean, look, I know this isn't the same as wiper blades, but I think there's just a long history of innovation turning into commoditization in this business, and I am not going to assume otherwise.

我不知道我还得从里面选一个。

Didn't know I had to pick someone in the field.

我本来想说选其他，但我觉得不会是特斯拉。

I was going to say the field for that way, but I don't think it's going to be Tesla.

如果让我选，我会选Waymo而不是特斯拉。

I I would take Waymo over Tesla here.

我觉得我会选整个行业。

I think I'll take the field.

如果你非要我说通用汽车，我会有点不情愿，但就是因为他们规模更大，而且我觉得他们会继续保持领先。

If you make me say GM, I'll cringe, but just because they're bigger and I think they'll stay bigger.

但确实，不管是Mobileye、英伟达还是其他公司，我觉得这就会像现在一样，基本上每个人买涡轮增压器都是从同一家公司买的，你知道的，就那一家。

But yes, something like whether it's Mobileye or NVIDIA or someone, I think that this is going to just be like, right now everybody buys their turbochargers from the same place, basically, you know, one company.

我觉得十年后，车里的技术也会出现类似的情况。

I think that ten years from now, we're going to have a similar situation with, with the technology inside the cars too.

对。

Yeah.

所以这里的想法是，不是每家汽车制造商都自己研发自动驾驶技术，而是由一家公司研发出来，然后卖给其他所有人。

So the idea here is that instead of each individual automaker developing autonomous driving technology, you have one company develop it and then sell it to everyone else.

这就是模块化商业模式。

That's the modular business model.

有几个名字，比如AV Ride、We Ride。

A couple of names there would be AV Ride, We Ride.

其中一家是Nebius旗下的，另一家是上市公司。

One of those is owned by Nebius, and one of them is publicly traded.

我总是把它们搞混，不过还有像Pony AI这样的。

I always get get the get them mixed up, but there's, like, Pony AI.

大概有十几家甚至更多的公司属于这一类。

There's a there's a dozen or more companies that kinda fall in that category.

Jon，你觉得十年后自动驾驶汽车会是什么情况？

Jon, what do you think is gonna be happening with autonomous vehicles ten years from now?

假设没有监管方面的阻碍或限制，我会说是特斯拉。

Assuming no regulatory burdens or barriers, I would say Tesla.

而且我觉得所有听众都会想，这家伙就是喜欢特斯拉。

And and I think that everyone listening is gonna be like, this guy just loves Tesla.

好吧。

Okay.

我没有持有特斯拉的股票。

I don't own Tesla stock.

我现在也没打算买，但我确实看到他们有可能会积累最多的自动驾驶里程，因为在我看来，他们比竞争对手更能快速扩大Cybercab的生产规模。

I don't plan to buy any right now, but I do see the case here that they're gonna have the most autonomous miles because they're the ones that can scale manufacturing to the cyber cab faster than than competitors in my view.

所以，我觉得十年后，如果监管放行的话，他们就是能把车推出来的那一家。

So, I would say that ten years hence, if there is regulatory green light, then they're the ones that are able to get it out there.

而且，他们有资源去补贴这些车辆，而竞争对手可能没有。

Plus, they have the resources to potentially subsidize those vehicles, whereas maybe competitors don't.

我们现在在AI公司身上就能看到这种情况。

We see that right now with AI companies.

对吧？

Right?

你付的并不是真正的token成本。

That you're not paying the token cost, the true token cost.

AI公司在一定程度上补贴这些成本，就是为了让你去采用。

AI companies are subsidizing those to a degree to get you to adopt.

我觉得特斯拉也可能出现同样的情况，而且我认为他们有动力这么做。

I could see the same thing happening with Tesla, and I would see the incentive to do so.

我能插一句吗？我其实很好奇你们怎么看一个相关的问题。

Can I can I break in and, like, just another I'm honestly curious what you guys think, like a related question?

那些里程，你们觉得十年后是无人驾驶出租车跑得最多，还是个人拥有的车跑得最多？

Those miles, do we think that the cybercabs or the, you know, the autonomous vehicles are going to drive the most miles, or do we think it's gonna be individually owned vehicles in ten years?

关于这一点，他们昨天好像发了一个表格，你可以填一下，说‘嘿，我想成为无人驾驶出租车的车队车主’之类的。

So just to that point, they basically had an inquiry yesterday, I think a form that you could fill out saying, hey, I would like to be a fleet owner of cyber

车辆。

vehicles.

十年后，你觉得

In ten years, do

大多数人车库里都没有车吗？

you think most people don't have a car in the garage?

我先说我的看法，我觉得十年后不会这样。

Take I'll I'll say no on that in ten years.

这就是我好奇的原因。

That's that's why I'm curious.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，我可不想放弃我的手动挡，所以我肯定会把车留在车库里。

I mean, I I don't wanna give up my manual transmission, so I'm definitely gonna keep the car in the garage.

但这是个好问题，卢。

But, that's a great question, Lou.

问得很有水平。

It's a great framing.

我不知道大多数人会怎么想。

I I don't know what the majority of people are gonna feel about that.

对。

Yeah.

我也不知道。

I I don't either.

我是说，也许最终会这样，但十年对我来说真的非常短，很难想象世界会发生那么大的变化。

I mean, maybe eventually, but ten years seems really, really short for me to, like, think of the world changing that dramatically.

我们拭目以待吧。

We'll see.

我的预测是，你看，我们家有我、我妻子、三个孩子，还有一条狗。

Here would be my prediction is I think the so we have, you know, me, my wife, and three kids, and a dog.

我们大概不太可能放弃所有的车。

There's it's probably unlikely that we give up all vehicles.

但我很希望生活在这样一个世界里：我们有一辆大车，比如大型SUV或者面包车，用来带家人出行，然后就这样。

But I would love to live in a world where we have one large vehicle, a large SUV or a van, whatever it is, for driving the family around, and then that's it.

如果我自己需要去哪里，或者孩子们需要去哪里，就有一辆自动驾驶车在一两分钟内来接我们。这可能意味着人们车库里仍然有车，但数量会减少。

And and if I need to get somewhere or if my kids need to get somewhere, there's an autonomous vehicle that can just pick us up, you know, within a minute or two, that might mean that people still have vehicles in their garages, but there's fewer of them.

所以，我们走着瞧吧。

So we'll we'll see.

看看事情如何发展会很有趣，而且有很多投资机会，无论是看特斯拉还是行业里的其他机会。

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, and there's there's a lot of bets to be made, whether you're looking at Tesla or a lot of other opportunities in the industry.

好的。

Okay.

谁将会打造出最好的人工智能模型？

Who is gonna be building the best AI model?

我说的是前沿领域。

And I'm talking about the frontier side of things.

会是谷歌、Anthropic、OpenAI、Meta，还是其他公司？

Is that gonna be Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, or the field.

再说一次，我希望你选一个，但我不确定谁会成为那个玩家。

Again, I'd like you to take somebody, but I don't necessarily know who would be that player.

也许是英伟达，或者类似这样的公司。

In NVIDIA, maybe, something something like that in the field.

但这里的想法是，十年后不是每个人都能站在那个最前沿。

But the idea here would be not everyone is going to be on that bleeding edge ten years from now.

公司最终会屈服，然后退出。

Companies are gonna eventually capitulate and kinda tap out.