债券市场抛售正在财报中显现

债券市场的声音越来越大了。

The bond market is talking a lot louder.

Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资节目现在开始。

Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.

欢迎收听 Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资节目。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是主持人 Crowe。

I'm your host, Crowe.

今天和我一起的是长期撰稿人 Lou Whiteman 和 Matt Frankel。

Today, I'm joined by longtime full contributors, Lou Whiteman and Matt Frankel.

财报季还在进行中。

Earnings season is still happening.

现在接近尾声了。

We're winding now.

今天我们会聊几份财报，来自 Klarna 和 Home Depot。

We're gonna cover a couple earnings reports today from Klarna and Home Depot.

但在我们开始之前，各位，债券市场的波动比平时大得多，而且它正在朝着大多数人现在不太喜欢的方向移动。

But before we do, guys, the bond market is moving a lot more than it normally is, and it's moving in a direction that most people aren't a big fan of right now.

债券收益率基本上就是债券的股息收益率，或者说它的价值上涨了多少，这基本上意味着人们不太愿意为债券支付那么高的价格。

Bond yields are the dividend yield, basically, of a bond or how much its value is rising, which basically means that people are not as willing to pay as much for bonds.

这种情况不仅仅发生在美国。

This isn't just happening in The US either.

许多国家的政府债券收益率正触及二十年来的高点，差不多是2007年的水平。当人们听到2007年这个数字时，很多警报就会响起，因为我们都记得2008年到2009年发生了什么，当时债券收益率很高，抵押贷款市场开始出现我们不希望看到的情况，当然，我们经历了大衰退。

Yields on government debt in many countries are hitting twenty year highs right about 2007 numbers, which when people hear that number 2007, a lot of alarm bells start to go off because we all remember what happened in 2008 through 2009 when we had high bond yields and the mortgage market started to do things that we didn't want it to do, and, of course, we got the great recession.

我不是说现在也会那样，但我们确实看到了很长时间以来最高的收益率。

Not saying that that is happening now, but we are seeing some of the highest yields we have seen in a long time.

那么，各位，到底发生了什么？

So, guys, what is going on?

为什么这一切会同时发生？

Why is this all happening at once?

就像你说的，上一次三十年国债收益率这么高的时候，雷曼兄弟还是华尔街最大的公司之一。

The last time the thirty year treasury was this high, like you said, Lehman Brothers was still one of the largest Wall Street firms.

已经有一段时间了。

It's been a little while.

如果我是退休人员，需要把一部分投资组合转向固定收益，我会很喜欢这个，但对大多数人来说，这不是什么好事。

If I'm a retiree and I need to shift some of my portfolio to fixed income, I'm loving this, but for most of us, it's not a great thing.

这不是美联储的错。

This isn't the Fed's doing.

收益率曲线的长端，也就是二十年、三十年的国债，主要是由市场驱动的。

The long dated end of the yield curve, meaning the, you know, twenty year, thirty year treasuries, it's primarily market driven.

还记得2023年吗？当时美联储为了对抗通胀快速加息，短期利率飙升至5%以上，而三十年期收益率实际上比现在还低。

Remember in 2023 when the Fed rapidly raised interest rates to combat inflation and short term interest rates spiked over 5%, the thirty year yield was actually lower then than it is now.

如果投资者预期利率会在更长时间内保持高位，如果存在更多不确定性，比如美联储主席不相信前瞻性指引，这只是其中一个例子，或者如果债务发行量异常高，比如政府大量借款加上企业债务激增，这都可能推高长期利率。

If investors, expect rates to stay higher for longer, if there's added uncertainty, let's say a Fed chair who doesn't believe in forward guidance, just for one example, or if debt issuance is unusually high, like a combination of a lot of government borrowing and a surge in corporate debt, it can push long term interest rates higher.

所以你说得对，这是全球性的。

So you're right that this is global.

这不仅仅是美国的问题。

This is not just The US issue.

日本的长期国债收益率达到了1996年以来的最高水平。

Japan's tenure is at its highest yield since 1996.

英国的三十年国债收益率接近6%。

UK's thirty year bond is approaching a 6% yield.

我还可以继续举例，但投资者现在要求更高的回报来补偿通胀，才愿意持有长期债券，因为市场上的供应量确实更大了。

I could go on, but investors expect more compensation on top of inflation to hold long term bonds because there is simply more supply to go around.

马特说得对。

Matt's right.

这确实不是美联储直接造成的，但某种程度上也跟美联储有关，这就是问题所在。

This is not the Fed's doing, but it's also kinda the Fed's doing, which is kind of the problem here.

现在有两件事在同时发生。

There are two things going on.

首先，市场放眼整个工业世界，看不到预算赤字有结束的迹象。

First, the market is looking around the industrial world and seeing no end to budget deficits.

美国是这样，欧洲也是这样。

When it's happening in The US, it's happening in Europe.

债务越高，风险越大，所以投资者要求为增加的风险获得补偿。

Higher debt means more risk, so investors are asking to be compensated for the added risk.

这就是债券市场的运作方式。

That's how the bond market works.

但其次，这也是美联储介入的地方，一直存在对美联储政治独立性的担忧，以及美联储在需要时加息和对抗通胀的能力的担忧。

But secondly, and this is where the Fed comes in, there is this lingering worry about political independence of the Fed and the Fed's ability to act if needed to raise rates and combat inflation.

我希望这些担忧被夸大了，但我认为它们是合理的。

I hope those fears are overstated, but I think they are justified.

在美联储证明自己之前，它在投资者眼中是失信的。

And until the Fed proves otherwise, it is in the penalty box with investors.

美联储的信誉可能是其压低利率或至少抑制利率预期的最佳工具。

The credibility of the Fed is probably its best tool for keeping rates down or to at least tamper rate expectations.

所以，如果现在美联储的信誉不如以前，那就是推动美国三十年国债收益率上升的一个重要因素。

So to the extent that it is not credible right now or less credible than it was, that's a big thing driving the thirty year in The US.

世界各地都有各自特有的问题，但要记住，这是一场全球性的资金竞争。

Around the world, there's country specific issues going on everywhere, but gotta remember, this is a global competition for funds.

如果美联储付的利息更高，就会迫使竞争加剧。

If the Fed is paying more, it forces competition.

这也会迫使其他所有人多付一点，因为他们都想吸引资金流入。

It forces everybody else to pay a little more because they all want to attract flows.

再加上企业债那边的情况，泰勒，我想我们接下来会聊到。

Couple that with what's going on in corporates, Tyler, which I think we'll get to next.

现在有很多人在争夺债券资金，这就推高了利率，试图吸引人们选择他们。

There's just a lot of people battling for bond funds right now, and that is causing rates to go up to try and entice people to choose them.

对于那些

For those of

还不是Motley Fool会员的人来说，这也许就是成为会员的契机。

you who aren't are Motley Fool members, maybe this is just the pitch to becoming a member.

我们三个人昨天其实做了一场直播问答，也聊到了这个，就是债务的供需总体上大幅上升。

The three of us actually did a live q and a yesterday where we were talking about this too with, like, the supply and demand of debt in general is way up.

供应量这么大，显然，买家就会变得更挑剔一些。

And with that much extra supply, obviously, the people who are buying it get to be a little bit more choosy.

这叫什么来着？

What do you call it?

可以说是买方市场吧。

The buyer's market, if you will.

我觉得我们得敲个钟，因为接下来要聊到AI了。就像你刚才说的，Lou，企业发债这部分很大程度上是因为AI数据中心的巨额投入，尤其是“七巨头”和那些超大规模公司。

And I feel like we have to ring a bell because we're gonna bring in AI here because part of that, as you were saying, Lou, the corporate issuance part is in large part because of all this AI data center spend and most directly, the magnificent seven and a lot of these hyperscale companies.

以前我们聊债务和债券收益率的时候，通常不会提到它们，因为它们都是现金流非常充裕的大公司。

We wouldn't normally bring them up in a conversation about debt and bond yields for years because they were these massive free cash flow businesses.

它们根本不需要借钱。

They didn't need debt.

它们手里攥着大把现金，以至于大家都说，你们怎么不拿这些钱干点什么呢？

They were sitting on massive piles of cash to the point where people were like, why don't you guys do something with it?

比如发个股息什么的。

Like, pay a dividend or something.

但现在情况变了，我们在AI上的资本开支导致债务大幅增加，同时也在用股权，还有表内表外的各种工具来支撑这些支出。

But now we're at this point where CapEx we're spending for AI is leading to significant added debt, also using equity, and also using things both on and off the balance sheet to make a lot of this spending happen.

那你觉得，随着AI建设以及企业发债这些事，资本成本显然在上升，你觉得这个上升的资本成本会在AI建设的哪个阶段真正开始显现出来？

So where do you think as we think about, like, AI build out and the the corporate issuance sort of stuff, obviously, it means that the cost of capital is going up.

你觉得这种资本成本的增加，会在AI建设的推进过程中，具体在哪个环节开始体现出来？

And where do you think this increase in capital will actually start to show up in this trajectory of AI build out?

因为我们看到这些科技巨头的资本支出指引，他们总是上调指引，然后就像没事人一样，拍拍肩膀就过去了。

Because we've watched the CapEx guidance for these max seven companies, and they'll just raise guidance and, you know, just kinda brush their shoulders off.

对，就是那样。

Like, yeah.

没事儿。

It's fine.

我们继续干。那到底在哪个环节会开始感受到压力呢？

We'll just do So where do we actually see it start to bite?

就像你刚才提到的，其实就在不久前。

Like you kinda just mentioned, it wasn't that long ago.

就在过去几年里，大多数投资者还认为AI建设会完全由这些公司产生的现金流和账上的现金来支撑，就像你说的那样。

Like, within the past couple years that most investors thought the AI build out would be entirely funded by the cash flow these companies generate and the cash they had sitting on their balance sheet, like you said.

但事实并非如此。

But that's not happening.

数字太大了。

The numbers got too big.

超大规模企业的资本支出今年有望达到7500亿美元，而明年的预估约为1.2万亿美元。

Hyperscaler CapEx is on pace to reach $750,000,000,000 this year, and estimates are calling for about $1,200,000,000,000 next year.

万亿，就是一万亿。

Trillion with a t.

今年这7500亿美元中，约有三分之一来自债务融资，而明年这个更高的数字中，债务融资的比例可能会更大。

Debt funding is about one third of that 750,000,000,000 this year, and it's likely to be an even greater percentage of that higher number next year.

例如，高盛预测，这1.2万亿美元中，有35%将通过债务融资。

For example, Goldman Sachs is forecasting 35% of that 1,200,000,000,000 will be debt funded.

而且，正如你提到的，还有表外融资这部分。

And there's also that off balance sheet part of the discussion, like you mentioned.

超大规模企业现在有大约1.65万亿美元的表外债务。

The hyperscalers now have about $1,650,000,000,000 of what we would call off balance sheet debt.

这些包括租赁承诺，这绝对是AI革命的一部分，还有他们资产负债表上的合资企业结构等等。

This is things like lease commitments, which it's definitely a part of the AI revolution, JV structures they have on their balance sheet, things like that.

这个数字自2022年以来已经增长了八倍。

That figure has eight x since 2022.

所以超大规模企业的债务，我们在第一部分也聊过，会和国债争夺投资者的资金。

So the debt from hyperscalers, and we kind of talked about this in the first section, competes with treasuries for investor dollars.

当长期债务工具过剩时，可能会推高收益率，而我们已经看到这种情况了。

And when you have a surplus of just long term debt instruments, it can help push yields higher, and we're already seeing that.

我们看到超大规模企业债务的信用利差在扩大，这只是其中一个例子。

We're seeing wider credit spreads on hyperscaler debt, just to name one example.

所以我们已经看到这种情况在显现。

So we're already seeing this show up.

泰勒，回答你关于增长何时会显现的问题——它已经显现了。

Tyler, to answer your question on, like, when the increase will show up, it already has shown up.

Alphabet刚刚公布了自十多年前上市以来的首个负自由现金流季度。

Alphabet just reported its first quarter of negative free cash flow since going public more than a decade ago.

所以我觉得，问题不在于它什么时候会出现。

So the question, I think, isn't when it'll show up.

问题在于它什么时候会停止。

The question is when it will stop.

而我们唯一的答案就是：不会很快。

And the only answer we have is not soon.

而且市场面临的一个问题就是，我们不知道这个问题的答案。

And one of the things hanging over the market is is that we don't know the answer to that question.

可以说，企业应对高利率的能力比很多主权国家要强，我觉得这一点已经反映在利率上了。

Arguably, the corporates have more of an ability to manage higher rates than a lot of these sovereigns do, And I think that's reflected in rates.

你看，虽然它们的利率没有达到美国的标准，但也已经很接近了。

You know, I mean, look, they're not trading at US standards, but they're trading pretty close.

最终总得有个东西要妥协。

Something has to give eventually.

但与此同时，那个“最终”可能还很遥远。

But at the same time, that eventually can be a long ways away.

现在还不是危机。

It's not a crisis right now.

只是拥挤交易。

It's a crowding.

我觉得债券买家远没到罢工的程度，所以这个我们还能应付。

I don't get the sense that bond buyers are anywhere near going on strike, so we can manage this.

我们需要担心的是，万一哪天突然出现债券购买罢工，我们该怎么办。

What we have to worry about is when that day comes where suddenly there is a bond buying strike and what we do then.

这个隐患一直存在。

It's lingering out there.

是个威胁。

It's a threat.

还没到那一步，但我们必须密切关注。

It's not there yet, but it's something we have to watch.

我觉得接下来值得关注的一个有趣点是，什么会改变这里的格局。

I think one of the interesting thing that's gonna be to follow is what changes the dynamic here.

因为我们已经看到这一切在全球范围内几乎同时发生。

Because we've seen this all happening worldwide kind of all at once.

而且我们非常好奇，想看看这会如何过渡，以及如何从利率上升转变为持平或回落到我们之前看到的水平。

And very curious what to see, how this transitions, and how it's able to move from this rising interest rate into something either flatlining or starting to go back down to, levels that we've seen previously.

但休息之后，我们实际上要讨论两家与利率上升直接相关的公司。

But after the break, we're actually gonna talk about two companies that have pretty direct exposure to what's happening with rising rates.

我们下周将从Klarna开始。

We're gonna start with Klarna coming up next week.

那些似乎比其他人完成更多工作的人，并不是工作时间更长或摄入更多咖啡因。

The people who seem to get more done than everyone else, they're not working longer hours or running on more caffeine.

他们只是不再浪费时间在那些不能推动工作进展的事情上。

They've just stopped wasting time on the stuff that doesn't move work forward.

切换应用、重新解释背景、寻找文件，这些都不是小效率问题。

Switching apps, re explaining context, hunting for files, those aren't small inefficiencies.

它们每周浪费数小时。

They're hours wasted every week.

Superhuman GO 帮你把这些时间找回来。

Superhuman GO gives you those hours back.

GO 来自 Grammarly 团队，是一款 AI 聊天工具，能嵌入你已经在用的每个标签页和工具里，随时待命，帮你处理手头的工作。

From the makers of Grammarly, GO is an AI chat that sits inside every tab and tool you already use, always available and ready to help you with what you're working on.

你可以让它起草内容、总结长邮件、调出文件，或者帮你为会议做准备。

Ask it to draft something, summarize a long thread, pull up a file, or prep you for a meeting.

GO 能搞定这些，而你完全不用离开当前页面。

GOO handles it without you ever leaving the page you're on.

这就是 AI 真正融入工作，而不是增加负担的样子。

This is what it looks like when AI actually fits into your work instead of adding to it.

就像多了一个队友，唯一的任务就是帮你把工作做得更好。

It's like having a teammate whose only job is to help you be better at yours.

GO 跟上你的节奏，你就能继续前进。

GO keeps up so you can move forward.

有了 GO 的协助，你就能尽情展现自己的实力。

And with GO working with you, you can show off what you do best.

去 superhuman.com 看看 Superhuman GO 能做什么。

See what Superhuman GO can do at superhuman.com.

就是 superhuman.com。

That's superhuman.com.

就像我说的，最近财报季没那么热闹了，但还是有一些挺让人兴奋的财报故事正在发生。

Like I said, there's not as many earnings going on as late, but there still are some pretty exciting earnings stories going on right now.

还有 Klarna Group 的股价，我录节目的时候还得查一下，因为我觉得从我们开始录到现在，它已经变动了两三个百分点。不过我们现在录的时候，股价大概跌了 21%，这是公司发布财报之后的情况。

And shares of Klarna Group I actually had to check this while we're recording because I think it's changed almost two or three percentage points since we started recording, but the stock's down about 21% as we're recording right now after the company reported earnings.

另外还有一些管理层变动要发生，高层那边会有一些调整。

There was also some management changes that are gonna be happening, a little bit of transition in the c suite.

所以发生了很多事情。

So a lot of stuff is happening.

Matt，财报里到底有什么内容？

Matt, what was in the earnings report?

是什么让股价跌了 20%？

What was in it that actually sent the shares down 20%?

今年我们看到了很多20%的波动，特别是这个季度，都是跟财报有关的。

Now we've seen a lot of 20% moves this year, this quarter specifically related to earnings.

所以这会不会又是那种，对，财报后的大波动。

So is this just another one of those, yeah, big move at the earnings.

我们看看过几天会怎么样。

We'll see what happens after a couple days.

我觉得公司财报大多不错，但股价却被打压，这已经成了这个季度一个挺常见的现象了。

I feel like companies getting beaten down after mostly solid earnings has become a, you know, a pretty recurring theme this quarter.

不过Klarna的情况其实挺能解释的。

But Klarna's actually pretty explainable here.

总的来说，他们的季度表现非常出色。

For the most part, their quarter was excellent.

营收同比增长27%，交易毛利这个他们的关键指标，增长了42%。

27% year over year revenue growth, transaction margin dollars, which is a key metric of theirs, that was up 42%.

他们实现了净利润，而一年前还是净亏损。

They posted a net profit versus a net loss a year ago.

他们的商户基础，也就是使用Klarna的商户数量，增长了54%，而且他们的信贷质量实际上还改善了。

Their merchant base, meaning the number of merchants that use Klarna, grew by 54% and their credit quality actually improved.

如果你还记得几个季度前，那是个大问题。

That was a big concern, if you remember a few quarters ago.

但和很多公司一样，真正的故事在于下调了业绩指引，而且幅度还不小。

But like many companies, the real story here is a guidance cut and it was a substantial one.

Klarna下调了全年营收指引。

Klarna lowered its full year revenue guidance.

他们把这归咎于汇率逆风，更重要的是，他们下调了对德国的预期，而德国是他们交易量最大的市场。

They blamed currency headwinds and more significantly, they blamed reduced expectations from Germany, which is their number one market by volume.

另外，他们还宣布了一些重大管理层变动。

Plus they announced some big management changes.

他们的首席财务官和首席营销官，两位都在公司待了很长时间，将于明年初卸任。

Their CFO and their chief marketing officer, both of whom have been with the company for a long time, are stepping down early next year.

所以，即使过去的业绩看起来很好，前瞻性的疲软也能压垮股价。

So forward looking softness can crush a stock even when the backward looking numbers look great,

这确实就是现在发生的情况。

and that's definitely what's happening here.

对。

Right.

这很简单。

This is pretty simple.

当股价是预期收入的20倍时，而且正如马特所说，他们转向盈利，我们可以给他们一个前瞻市盈率，大约85倍的前瞻收益。

When you're trading at 20 times expected revenue and we can as Matt said, they move to a profit, we can give them a forward PE here, a little 85 or so times forward, earnings.

当股价处于这个水平时，市场期望的是完美。

When you're trading at these levels, the market wants perfection.

是的。

Yes.

也许在数字不错的情况下抛售看起来很奇怪，但我们现在的情况是，不错还不够好，这就是今天市场反应所显示的。

Perhaps a sell off seems odd with decent numbers, but we're in a situation where decent isn't good enough, and that's what we're seeing in the reaction today.

我还想到，当你看到业绩指引疲软，同时两位很可能主要负责制定这一指引的人——首席财务官和首席营销官——都在谈论过渡，这确实让人担忧。

I also have to imagine too when you're seeing softer guidance in conjunction with two of the people who are largely probably responsible for creating such guidance, the CFO and the chief marketing officer, all talking about transitioning.

你确实能理解为什么市场会比平时更紧张一些。

You can definitely see why the market might be a little bit more spooked than normal.

而且你看。

And look.

Klarna是一家金融服务公司，我猜我们在第一段讨论的债券市场里利率上升的情况，可能也跟它有关。

Klarna is a financial services company, and I have to imagine that some of what we're talking about here in the bond market up in the first segment where we have rising interest rates.

在私募市场，我们开始看到更高的违约率或私人信贷的减记。

In the private market, we're starting to see higher rates of default or write downs on private credit.

所以信贷和债务融资环境里出现了一些裂痕，我觉得这多少也加剧了整体的压力。

And so there is creaks in the creditdebit finance environment, which I think kinda just adds to the kind of piling on, I guess, you will, for all of this.

考虑到这些，比如我们看到的疲软指引，还有利率上升、资本成本增加，因为你知道，Klarna有存款业务，这意味着你得去争夺这些资本。

So considering this, like, what we saw, softer guidance, what we saw with rising interest rates, cost of capital, because, you know, Klarna does have deposits, which does mean, like, you gotta fight for that capital.

那我们对Klarna能有什么预期呢？

What can we expect from Klarna?

这是不是我们接下来一段时间会看到的趋势，还是说可能会有某种转机？

Is this, like, the trend that we're gonna see for a while now, or is there perhaps some sort of turnaround coming?

一方面，Klarna 的资金来源，至少 90% 的贷款业务，是靠低成本存款。

On one hand, Klarna funds its business, at least 90% of its lending business with low cost deposits.

所以这是一个不错的竞争优势。

So that's a nice competitive advantage.

Klarna 是一家银行，不像它的一些竞争对手。

Klarna's a bank, unlike some of its competitors.

但我们处于一个利率更高更持久的环境，而且时间越长，这种情况似乎越明显。

But we're in a higher for longer rate environment, and the longer we go, the longer it seems like that's the case.

这会导致消费者压力增大。

And that leads to a stretched consumer.

对于一家依赖交易量和购物手续费的公司来说，这绝对是个问题。

For a company that relies on payment volume and fees from people buying things, that's definitely a problem.

回到你之前提到的全球债券问题，他们的业绩指引下调，正如我提到的，主要与德国预期中的消费疲软有关。

To tie it into your global bond question from earlier, their guidance reduction, as I mentioned, was mainly tied specifically to expected softer consumer spending in Germany.

我们提到过，很多欧洲债券收益率处于几十年来的高位。

We mentioned European bond yields are at multi decade highs in a lot of cases.

所以当然，这些影响并不是克拉纳独有的。

So of course, the effects of this are not Klarna specific.

所以这不是公司做错了什么，而且公司的信用指标也在向好的方向发展，但确实，你知道，他们受到了这种环境的影响。

So this is nothing the company's doing wrong, and the company's credit metrics moved in the right direction, but it's definitely, you know, they're being affected by this environment.

对。

Right.

这是宏观层面的担忧，而不是克拉纳自身融资能力的问题。

This is macro concern, not Klarna's ability to fund itself.

但说到克拉纳，事情是这样的。

But on the subject of Klarna, and here's the thing.

对于新的金融科技业务、新的贷款业务，我们从来不会真正完全了解，直到它经历了一个完整的周期。

We never really know, fully know, about a new fintech business, a new lending business, until it has weathered a full cycle.

其他一切都只是建模，而模型往往容易出错。

Everything else is just modeling, and the models tend to get things wrong.

市场关注的是短期。

The market is focused on the near term.

市场关注的是接下来消费者那边会不会出问题。

It's focused on things going wrong from here with the consumer.

我觉得这挺合理的。

I think that's appropriate.

但作为长期投资者，我不能就这么视而不见，因为我们确实还不知道结果。

But as a long term investor, I can't just whistle past this because we really don't know yet.

有可能Klarna在经济衰退中证明了自己，我们发现他们的模型确实有效，这家公司能扛过整个信贷周期。

There's a chance that Klarna proves itself out in a recession here, and we find out, yes, their models work, and this is a business that can weather an entire credit cycle.

也有可能我们发现他们扛不住。

There's a chance that we'll learn that they can't.

作为长期投资者，我只需要接受这个风险，接受我们不知道的事实，而且除非他们经历过，否则没法知道，如果你现在选择买入的话。

And as a long term focused investor, I just need to accept that risk and accept that just we don't know, and there's no way to know until they go through it if you choose to buy in here.

回到我之前说的，当你为这种不确定性付出高估值时，现在市场至少有些疲软，或者至少不太急于进场买入，我一点也不意外。

And back to my earlier point, when you were paying a high valuation for that uncertainty, I'm probably not surprised that there's at least some weakness or at least some lack of eagerness to jump in now and buy this.

我们说市场不喜欢不确定性，但在牛市里，它似乎还挺喜欢的。

We say the market doesn't love uncertainty, but it seems to like it when the when it's a bull market.

但是当熊市来的时候，现在突然每个人都害怕不确定性了。

But when the bear market come, now all of a sudden, everyone's afraid of uncertainty.

不过说到一家确实经历了起起落落很长一段时间的公司，我们要聊聊家得宝的财报。

But speaking of a company that has definitely weathered the cycles up and down for quite a while, we're gonna talk about Home Depot's earnings there.

我觉得可以说这是今天的持续主题，我们讨论的公司都深受宏观环境影响，而我认为家得宝绝对属于这一类。

I guess you could say it's the continuing theme of the day where we're talking about companies that are very much influenced by what's happening in the macro environment, and I think Home Depot is definitely in that realm.

他们今天发布了财报。

They reported earnings today.

今天股价只上涨了大约0.4%，所以华尔街的反应有点平淡无奇。

Shares are only up about 0.4% today, so it's kinda a little bit of a nothing burger reaction from Wall Street.

市场在下跌，所以也许你可以说，嘿。

Market's down, so maybe you could say, hey.

他们在市场下跌时上涨，所以从积极的角度来看。

They're up while the market's down, so putting a positive spin on it.

卢，报告里有什么可能让人有点乐观的内容，还是只是略微超出预期，但家得宝的长期趋势基本保持不变？

Lou, what was in the the report that might have people a little optimistic, or is it maybe just a little bit of beating expectations, but the long term trend kinda stays the same with Home Depot?

他们守住了阵地，就这样。

They held serve, period.

他们没有垮掉。

They didn't break.

他们没做出什么特别亮眼的事，但守住了阵地。

They didn't do anything too impressive, but they held serve.

尽管管理层称市场为“冰冻的房地产市场”，他们还是超出了营收和利润预期。

They beat on the top and bottom line despite operating in what management called a frozen housing market.

这听起来不太好。

That's not great to hear.

但你看，

But look.

他们还是做得不错。

Again, they did okay.

深入看的话，其实有很多情况在发生。

Looking under the hood, there's a lot going on.

同店销售额只增长了1.7%，看起来主要是价格上涨，而不是销量增加。

Comp store sales only up 1.7, which looked a lot like price increases and not volume increases.

所以我们希望看到销量在增长。

So we would like to see volumes growing.

另外，公司本季度收到了7.3亿美元的关税退款，这帮助抵消了高于预期的燃料、能源和产品投入成本带来的压力。

Also, the company received $730,000,000 in tariff refunds in the quarter, which helped offset pressure on higher than planned fuel, higher than planned energy, and product input costs.

管理层表示，预计更高的成本将完全抵消关税带来的好处。

Management said it expects the higher cost to, quote, fully offset the tariff benefit.

所以目前宏观净影响是负面的。

So the macro net is negative right now.

他们基本上是在说，我们不能永远指望关税退款来覆盖更高的成本。

They are basically saying that we can't just count on tariff refunds to cover our higher costs forever.

家得宝在过去五年里几乎没怎么涨。

Home Depot has gone nowhere over the last five years.

股价只上涨了5%。

The stock is up just 5%.

说实话，这已经很不错了。

To be honest, that's pretty great.

这真的很了不起。

That's pretty amazing.

考虑到房地产市场现在的情况，它还能保持得这么好，真是难得。

It that it's held up as well as it has considering everything going on in the, in the housing market.

公司有很多手段可以应对，我觉得投资者基本上已经认定问题出在宏观环境，而不是家得宝本身，而且家得宝能挺过这个周期。

The company has lots of levers to pull, and I think investors kind of have baked in that the issues are macro, the issues aren't Home Depot specific, and that Home Depot will get through the cycle.

所以我觉得市场能这么耐心，对不太亮眼的数字也这么包容，真是挺让人印象深刻的。

So I think it's pretty impressive how patient the market has been and tolerant of kinda underwhelming numb numbers.

但到了某个时候，我们还是希望看到增长加速。

But at some point, we would like to see acceleration here.

我不知道那会是什么时候。

I don't know when that's gonna happen.

在冰冻的房地产市场里还能超出预期，这确实令人印象深刻，也真正展示了家得宝的韧性，相比之下其他一些房地产相关的股票就逊色了，我们一会儿会讲到。

Beating expectations in a frozen housing market is it's certainly impressive, and it really shows Home Depot's resilience compared to some other real estate plays, which we'll get to in a minute.

同店销售增长，卢提到是1.7%。

The comp store sales growth, Lou mentioned it was 1.7%.

这个数字虽然不算惊艳，但确实比上个季度有所加速，在冰冻的房地产市场里，这已经很不错了。

That's not a knock your socks off number, but it does represent an acceleration over the previous quarter, which that in a frozen housing market's pretty nice.

公司还报告了更高的平均客单价，也就是说，他们每笔销售的平均金额显著上升了。

The company also reported a higher average ticket, meaning like the average, you know, sale they're making went up significantly.

而那些大项目，比如全厨房翻新，通常靠房屋净值贷款来融资，这些项目大多还在搁置中。

And and the big projects, which are often funded through home equity, like a full kitchen renovation, for example, those are still mostly on hold.

这其实才是过去四年拖累他们业务的主要原因。

That's what's been holding their business back really for the past, you know, four years.

但平均客单价的提升至少表明，小项目正在相当不错地回暖。

But the larger average ticket, it does show that smaller projects at least are making a pretty nice comeback here.

这也很值得高兴。

So that's really nice to see too.

不过，我唯一想挑刺的地方是，同店销售增长1.7%。

The only thing I would nitpick here too, though, is, yeah, comps at 1.7.

对。

Yeah.

听起来不错，而且还在加速增长，但目前仍低于通胀率。

It sounds good, and it's accelerating, but it's also below inflation right now.

所以并没有完全跟上。

So it's not exactly keeping up.

当然，我们在关注家得宝的情况时，需要继续跟进这一点。

Certainly, we need to follow-up on as we kinda watch the Home Depot story.

我想把这个和我们关于债券收益率、当前宏观环境的主题联系起来。

And I wanna tie this back to our theme on bond yields, the macro environment going on.

高利率基本上给房市盖上了紧盖子，就像家得宝的高管们说的那样。

Higher interest rates has basically kept that firm lid on housing, just like executives at Home Depot said.

房市是冻结的。

It's a frozen housing market.

那这有什么影响吗？

So does this make anything?

比如说，家装公司，像家得宝、劳氏，或者其他跟住房、房地产相关的公司，看起来是不是挺有吸引力的，就像是周期底部的那种投资机会，即使我们现在不一定真的处在周期底部。

Like, we can either the home improvement companies, Home Depot, Lowe's, or anything else housing or real estate related look attractive as kind of like that bottom of the cycle type of investment, even if we're not necessarily at the bottom of the cycle here.

作为投资者，我挺乐意在这里晚一步的。

As an investor, I am quite content to be late here.

家得宝说他们大部分业务都是小项目带动的，不是像马特说的那种大翻修。

Home Depot said most of their business is being driven by small projects, not, as Matt said, huge renovations.

而且今天公布的七月份住房数据非常糟糕。

And we got terrible housing numbers for July today.

独栋住宅开工率下降了将近10%。

Single family housing starts fell by nearly 10%.

我们现在已经接近2022年11月的低点了。

We're close to November 2022 lows here.

待售房屋销售指数创下了历史上第二低的水平。

Pending home sales came in at the second lowest level in history.

换个角度看，跌到这个份上，我们离底部应该不远了。

Glass half full, we gotta be close to a bottom when we get down to these levels.

悲观一点看，我们可能会在底部徘徊很长时间。

Glass half empty is we can just scrape along that bottom for a long time.

不能保证底部是橡胶做的，我们就会弹起来。

There's no guarantee that that bottom is rubber and we're just gonna bounce off it.

考虑到我们刚才聊的，以及我们现在看到的一切，就像我说的，我很满足于等待，看看真正反弹的迹象。

Given what we've talked about, given everything we're seeing right now, as I said, I'm very content to just kinda wait and see signs of an actual rebound.

我猜不会很快反弹，我会继续观望。

My guess is is that there isn't gonna be a quick rebound, and I'll remain on the sidelines here.

我完全同意卢刚才说的。

I completely agree with what Lou just said.

这话出自一个长期看好房屋建筑商和某些房地产相关股票（比如火箭公司）的人之口。

And this is coming from someone who's very long term bullish on things like homebuilders and and certain real estate adjacent stocks like rocket companies.

让这些股票看起来便宜、可能处于周期性底部的原因，正是债券市场现在告诉我们的高利率环境不会很快消失。

The thing that makes these stocks look cheap, like they might be at a cyclical bottom right now, is the same thing that the bond market is telling us right now is not going away anytime soon at the higher rate environment.

具体到Home Depot，这里确实有看多和看空的理由。

I mean, with Home Depot specifically, there are bull and dare arguments to be made here.

所以，锁定效应，也就是说，因为高房贷利率，人们被困在家里比他们想要的时间更长，这正是推动小型项目需求的原因。

So the lock in effect, meaning that people are being stuck in their homes longer than they want to because of high mortgage rates, That's what's fueling that small project demand.

人们是在改善自己的家而不是搬家，这也是这个业务具有韧性的部分原因。

People are making improvements to their home not moving, which is part of the resilience with with this business.

公司在市场冻结的情况下超出了预期。

The company's beating expectations in frozen market conditions.

这真的显示了这项业务的韧性有多强。

It really shows how resilient this business is.

但就像我说的，虽然客户可能在改善现有住房，比如做那些他们一直推迟的项目，但大型项目仍然基本搁置，这种情况不会消失。

But I mean, like I said, while while customers might be improving their existing homes like doing projects they had been putting off, the big projects are still largely on hold and that's not gonna go away.

债券市场告诉我们，这种情况不会很快消失，所以我们只能拭目以待。

And the bond market's telling us it's not gonna go away anytime soon, so we'll have to wait and see on that.

如果我们对房地产市场解冻的判断太早，就像卢说的，他完全愿意晚点参与，这没什么不对。

If we are early to a housing market thaw, it's like Lou said, he's he's perfectly content to be late to the party, and there's nothing wrong with that.

但像家得宝或劳氏这样持久的企业，在这个阶段可能是一个不错的投资选择。

But a durable business like Home Depot or Lowe's could be a good way to play it at this stage.

只是，我的意思是，要知道你买的是优质业务，但你的投资逻辑可能还要等一段时间才能完全兑现。

Just, I mean, be aware that you're getting your quality business, but it might be a little while until your thesis fully plays out.

对。

Yeah.

我想说，作为投资者，同时也在二十一世纪一十年代在The Motley Fool负责能源和材料板块的编辑工作，周期底部可能会持续很长时间。

I would say as a both a investor as and also kinda sitting on the energy and materials, like, editing desk at The Motley Fool during the twenty tens, a cyclical bottom can stay at the bottom for a long time.

我们在2014年到2020年的油气行业就看到了这种情况。

We saw it in oil and gas from 2014 all the way through 2020.

在矿业和材料行业，随着中国放缓论开始应验，整个二十一世纪一十年代我们也都看到了这种情况。

We saw it in mining and materials all through the twenty tens as the China slowdown thesis started to play out.

所以，如果你是这样想的投资者——我觉得我们正处于周期底部，那有可能，但这些周期持续的时间可能比你想象的要长得多。

So if you are one of those investors who's like, I think we're at the bottom of the cycle, it's possible, but these cycles can remain way, way longer than you might actually think is possible.

所以一定要记住这一点。

So always keep that in mind.

好了，各位，今天的时间就到这里了。

Well, guys, so that's all the time we have for today.

马特·卢，谢谢你的分享。

Matt Lou, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

接下来我要说一下免责声明，然后我们就结束。一如既往，节目中的人可能持有我们讨论的股票，而The Motley Fool可能对我们的嘉宾有正式推荐。

I'm gonna hit disclosure, and we'll get out of As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks we talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for our guests.

所以不要仅仅根据你听到的内容买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容都遵循Motley Fool的编辑标准，并且未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告仅对仅供参考的内容做出回应。

Advertisements respond to content provided for informational purposes only.

要查看我们的完整广告披露，请查看我们的节目笔记。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢制作人克里斯蒂·沃特沃斯以及The Motley Fool团队的其他成员。

Thanks for producing Kristi Waterworth and the rest of The Motley Fool team.

代表马特、卢和我自己，感谢你们的收听，我们很快再聊。

For Matt, Lou, and myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.