中国市场的挑战

今天在中国市场投资，寻找被忽视的潜力股，面临的挑战是什么。

The challenge of China's market today on Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

欢迎收听《富达隐藏宝石》。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems.

我是你们的主持人泰勒·克鲁。

I'm your host, Tyler Crowe.

今天，我邀请到了两位长期为富达撰稿的嘉宾：马特·弗兰克尔和乔恩·夸斯特。

And today, I'm joined by longtime Fool contributors, Matt Frankel and Jon Quast.

接下来，我们要深入探讨最近很多公司在中国遇到的难题。

So we're gonna really dive into the challenge that a lot of companies have been facing in China recently.

昨天我们在关于耐克财报的播客里已经简单聊过这个话题。

We discussed it yesterday on the yesterday's podcast related to Nike's earnings.

今天我们要再挖得深一点，因为受这个问题影响的公司远不止耐克一家。

We're gonna scratch that a little bit deeper because there's a lot more companies than just Nike that are suffering this problem.

不过在开始之前，先提醒一下，今天是7月2日。

But before we do that, it is July 2.

我们今天录的是第一天，不过你也懂的。

Well, we're recording on the first, but hey, you know what?

对你们来说，已经是第二天了。

For you guys, it's the second.

这意味着今年已经过了一半多，到目前为止，标普500真是跌宕起伏。

That means we're more than halfway through the year, and so far, the S and P 500 has been a wild, wild place.

整个市场里，涨跌都特别剧烈。

We've had some incredible performance up and down the spectrum.

说实话，我觉得今年标普500里各只股票的表现差异，是我见过最大的一次。

And I gotta say, guys, I think so far this year, I think I've seen the widest spread of outcomes in the S and P five hundred in a long time.

确实如此。

Well, yeah.

如果我没算错的话，今年上半年，标普500成分股里有22只股票翻了一倍以上。

I mean, first and foremost, if my math is right here, we had 22 stocks double or more in the first half of twenty twenty six.

我说的是，在标普500全部成分股当中，有22只股票做到了这一点。

Now I'm talking about 22 stocks among the constituents of the S and P five hundred.

这在我看来不太正常。

That doesn't seem normal to me.

我没查过历史数据，但二十亿二十六年上半年有22只股票翻了一倍以上，这数量实在太多了。我们看看那些顶尖的股票，前五名的情况，远不止这个数。

I haven't checked the historical data, but but having that many stocks double or more I mean, we look at some of the higher end stocks, the top five, I mean, it's far more than that.

这些可是美国最大、最赚钱的公司，居然有这么多在这么短的时间内暴涨，简直不可思议。

So to have the these are the largest US based profitable companies to have this many going up this fast.

这真的太惊人了。

It just is remarkable.

你说得对，乔恩，不只是那些小公司从几十亿涨到几百亿。

To your point too, Jon, it's not just like, you know, the smallest companies going from like 20,000,000,000 to 40,000,000,000.

比如美光科技，半年左右就从五千亿涨到了一万亿美元。

This is like Micron going from 500,000,000,000 to a trillion dollars in six months or so.

我不是说具体哪一家，但这就是个例子——巨头公司掀起的巨大波动。

I not the specific one, but, you know, that's an example, like massive companies making massive moves.

我觉得上半年其实有两股截然不同的趋势。

I I feel like there were two tales of the first half too.

第一季度完全是被恐惧主导的。

Like, the first quarter was ruled by by fear.

当时伊朗战争爆发了。

You had the the Iran war starting.

那会儿还赶上了所谓的‘SASSPocalypse’交易，全都在年初发生。

You had the sasspocalypse trade, that was all during the first quarter of the year.

到了第二季度，情绪就全变成乐观了。

And then the the second quarter was all optimism.

伊朗战争开了又停、停了又开，来回折腾了78次，每次一缓和，市场就重新定价，情绪也跟着回暖。

I mean, the Iran war ended and restarted 78 times and each time the market rerated and and had some positive, you know, some optimism there.

我们看到AI相关的投资真正开始升温，尤其是那些‘卖铲子’的标的。

You know, we saw the AI trade really start to pick up, especially when it comes to like the picks and shovels plays.

这是自2003年以来，小盘股首次在上半年大幅跑赢标普500指数。

For the first time since 2003, small caps outperformed the S and P 500 for the first half of the year by a significant margin.

今年确实出现了很多前所未有的情况。

And and I mean, we we saw a lot of kind of unique aspects of this year.

你说得对。

You're right.

这真像坐过山车一样。

It was kind of a roller coaster ride.

标普500今年是上涨的，但一路上跌宕起伏，根本不是直线上升。

The S and P five hundred's up for the year, but it was not a straight line getting there.

我们之前录播时你提到过，我觉得这可能是最近一段时间以来，‘七巨头’股票首次在整体表现上跑输标普500。

And something you mentioned too while we were like pre taping is, I think this is the first time in a while that the magnificent seven stocks were actually underperformed the S and P 500 on a total basis.

所以，今年到目前为止，感觉真是有点混乱，周三都变得怪里怪气的，一切都颠倒过来了。

So, you know, a lot of wacky Wednesday, everything is upside down sort of feeling to what we've seen so far this year.

不过，就像你刚才说的，我们之前看到的那些趋势都很扎实，听节目的人应该早就摸清了哪些板块表现好、哪些特别出色。

Now, like you said, a lot of the things that we've seen so far have been like solid trends, and I think people who have been listening to the show kind of caught on to like what's done well, what's done great.

那些表现差的，比如SaaS公司，根本没起色，毕竟‘AI已死’这种说法传得挺凶。

You know, stuff that stinks is like SAS companies and not doing necessarily well because, you know, death of AI.

反而是AI基础设施相关的公司，才是真正大放异彩的。

And then AI infrastructure companies are the ones that are were actually killing it.

我们说的这些芯片公司，还有相关的工业公司，确实挺重要，但标普500里还有一些不太起眼、甚至有点出人意料的赢家。

You know, we're talking about the chip companies, a lot of the, tangential industrial companies are associated, but there's a lot of other, like, hidden aspects and, like, maybe unconventional winners so far in the S and P 500.

所以，你们看看这份名单，我们之前也粗略翻过一遍，有没有哪一家让你觉得特别意外？表现远超预期？

So, guys, what did you, like, when you looked down the list, and we kind of scoured them a little bit before the show, which one popped out as, hey, this is doing surprisingly well.

它跟我们刚才聊的那些大趋势根本没关系。

It's not, like, correlated with these megatrends that we're talking about here.

是的。

Yeah.

你说得对，目前标普500里表现最好的，基本上就是那些AI基础设施相关的公司。

I mean, to your point, it's basically the AI infrastructure build out that is among the top performance in the S and P 500.

但如果你往下看，排第51名的这家公司，你可能想不到。

But if you go down the list of ways, number 51.

它连前10%都进不了，但这家公司叫Casey's General Store，股票代码是CASY。

So this doesn't even crack the top 10%, but this is Casey's general store, and that ticker symbol, c a s y.

这是家位于中西部的便利店和加油站连锁，今年上半年股价涨了41%。

This is a Midwestern convenience store and gas station chain, and it was up 41% in the first half.

这六个月的表现太惊人了。

That that's a tremendous six month performance.

它连标普500前10%都进不去，这简直让人哭笑不得。

It doesn't even crack the top 10% of the S and P 500, which is just remarkably laughable to me.

不过，油价涨了，我倒不意外大家会多花在加油上。

But, you know, with gas prices going higher, I I wasn't surprised that people were spending on gas necessarily.

但我一直在想，这种可选消费会不会开始承受压力？

But I was wondering, is this consumer discretionary spend going to come under pressure?

餐厅的销售额呢？今年上半年其实已经有点吃力了。

Will restaurant sales I mean, they were kind of under pressure here in the first half of the year.

但你看看CASY，它真正的利润来源是即食食品这部分业务。

But you look at CASY's, where it really makes its money is in the prepared foods part of its business.

人们去加油站的时候。

People go to the gas station.

现在也能买到一些杂货，但即食食品的利润率接近60%。

Now you can get kind of these grocery items as well, but the prepared foods are close to a 60% margin.

所以这才是公司真正的盈利核心。

So this is the real moneymaker for the business.

在截至今年四月的财年上半财年，即食食品的同店销售额增长了百分之五。

The same store sales for prepared foods up 5% in the first half of its fiscal twenty twenty six, which just ended here in April.

这对CASY来说在餐饮类业务中表现非常强劲，也正是它当前超出市场预期的主要推动力。

But that's a very strong showing in more of like the restaurant category here for CASY's, and it is driving a lot of its outperformance right now.

是的。

Yeah.

我最意外的是，正如泰勒提到的，MAG七巨头首次在一段时间内跑输标普500指数，反而是标普493指数——也就是指数里其他所有公司——表现得特别好。

I I think my biggest surprise, and Tyler kind of mentioned this, was that the MAG seven underperformed the S and P 500 for the first time in a while, and was how well the S and P four ninety three did, the other, you know, the every other company in the index as a whole.

当然，有些公司明显受益于人工智能的第二波浪潮，这正是背后的主要动力。

I mean, there are some obvious examples of companies that are benefiting from the second wave of AI, and that's really what's driving it.

那些大型云服务商在过去几年已经享受过一波红利了。

You know, the the big the hyperscalers already had their benefit in the past few years.

比如美光科技，泰勒之前提到过，还有闪迪这些内存公司，都是很典型的例子。

Just think companies like Micron, Tyler mentioned earlier, and and SanDisk, the memory companies are obvious examples.

但如果你看看那些不太起眼的‘卖铲子’类公司，比如康宁，它的表现真的让我很意外。

But then if you look at kind of picks and shovels plays that are a little below the radar, like Corning is is a big surprise to me is how well it's done.

GLW是它的股票代码。

GLW is the ticker symbol.

这是一家有175年历史的公司，专门生产特种玻璃和光纤电缆。像康宁这样的企业正被重新评估为AI基础设施概念股，因为它们从数据中心的巨额投资中获益良多。

It's a 175 year old company that's a specialty glass and fiber optic cable maker, And companies like Corning and others are being revalued as AI infrastructure plays because they're benefiting from that massive wave of data center spending.

所以像这样的公司，我觉得是我最大的意外之喜。

So companies like that, I think are the biggest positive surprise to me.

还有好几家公司也属于这一类。

And there are several other examples of those.

我觉得我们得跟制作团队商量一下。

I think we're gonna have to talk to the production team.

我觉得咱们该来一次实地调研之旅，去走访全美那些拥有极高客户忠诚度的便利店，比如CASY's、Buckeys、Wawa这些地方。

I think we need to do like a field research road trip, and we'll do like a CASY's, Buckeys, Wawa, all of the like hyper, loyal customer base convenience stores across America.

这会是个挺有意思的调研课题。

That could be a fun little research topic.

就像我们说的，这些是一些不太常规的赢家，而输家呢，你会发现一大堆SaaS公司，还有类似的技术软件公司，这么说可能最准确。

Like we said, these are some of, like, the unconventional winners, and like we said, the the losers, you'll find a ton of SaaS companies, things like that, a lot of tech software companies, I guess, is the best way to put it.

但同样，输家里面也有一些不太常规的案例。

But, obviously, there's some down in the loser category, same thing, like unconventional losers.

你们发现哪些东西特别让人意外，一眼就注意到的？

What were some of the things that you guys found that really, like, popped off the screen there?

对我来说，是Tractor Supply Company。

For me, it was Tractor Supply Company.

它的股票代码是TSCO。

This is ticker symbol TSCO.

今年上半年，它的股价已经跌了36%。

It's down 36% in the first half of twenty twenty six.

这使得它成为该指数中表现第十七差的公司。

That makes it the seventeenth worst performer in the index.

目前公司预计今年的营收和每股收益增长都会相当疲软。

Now the company is forecasting some kind of tepid top line growth as well as EPS growth for the year.

所以我不太意外它跑输大盘，但真没想到它跌得这么狠，毕竟公司还在预测温和增长。

So I'm not necessarily surprised it's underperforming the index, but I am surprised that it is down so sharply because it is still forecasting modest growth.

生意根本没垮，完全不是那回事。

It's not like the business is falling apart.

股价从历史高点跌了50%，这是十多年来的最大跌幅。

So it's actually down 50% from its all time high, which is its biggest drawback in more than a decade.

这真让我挺惊讶的。

So that really surprises me.

我个人趁这个机会入手了，因为我觉得Tractor Supply这家公司年年都稳得很。

Personally, this is a dip I took advantage of because I think that Tractor Supply Company is just a rock solid business year in and year out.

它的客户真的离不开它，比如动物饲料这类东西。

I think that its customers really do rely on it for a lot of things such as their animal feed.

这还是一家不错的股息增长型公司。

This is a good dividend growth company as well.

已经连续17年提高股息了。

Seventeen consecutive years of raising that dividend.

我的投资组合里确实留了位置给那些股息持续增长的公司，尤其是现在收益率接近3%的时候。

I do have a place in my portfolio for dividend growth companies and with the yield at close to 3%.

这可是Tractor Supply公司有史以来最高的收益率。

That's an all time high for Tractor Supply companies.

所以我上半年就直接加仓了。

So it's one that I went ahead and added in the first half.

对。

Yeah.

其实有些标普500成分股表现很差，我一点都不意外，比如Intuit就排在末尾。

I mean, there were some of the S and P 500 companies that performed poorly that I really wasn't surprised about, like Intuit is at the bottom of the list.

我觉得他们没必要担心AI冲击的担忧。

I'm not they should be worried about AI disruption fears.

无论是报税服务还是QuickBooks业务，AI对他们来说都挺合适的。

They make a lot of sense for this business on both the tax prep and the QuickBooks side of the business.

今年跌了37%的公司里，我最没想到的是FICO，也就是主导信用评分系统的Fair Isaac公司。

One that really wasn't on my bingo card to fall 37% this year was FICO, or Fair Isaac Company, the company behind the dominant credit scoring system.

没错，他们是一家SaaS公司，但原本以为他们的市场主导地位和客户关系能形成更坚固的护城河，结果没那么强。

Yes, they're a SaaS company, but just the dominance, the relationships they have, thought were more of a moat than they turned out to be.

有史以来第一次，我们看到了真正的竞争威胁——比如房贷机构现在可以使用VantageScore了，这是头一回有对手能和他们平起平坐。

For the first time ever, we're really seeing serious competitive threats, like mortgage lenders can now use the VantageScore, which is the number one competitor for the first time ever.

而且，外界也开始认真质疑他们的专有评分系统到底有多大的优势，毕竟这套系统多年来一直秘而不宣。

And there are legitimate questions about how big of a moat their proprietary scoring system is, which has been a very well kept secret over the years.

如果AI评估消费者信用风险的能力提升到根本不需要他们这套系统了，那情况就不同了。

If AI's capability of evaluating consumer credit risk improved to the point where it's not really needed anymore.

所以这个变化确实让我挺意外的。

So that that's one that surprised me.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得，关键不仅在于AI能不能做到，还在于监管机构会不会允许AI这么做。

I feel like a lot of that will also come down to not only can AI do it, but will regulators let AI do it.

这真是个有趣的话题，看看我们到底愿意把多少信贷审批的权力交给人工智能。

So fascinating story to see how willing we're gonna seed all of our underwriting to the AI.

接下来，我们要聊聊最近进入中国市场的挑战。

Coming up next, we're gonna talk about the challenge of selling into the China market recently.

我一直想做一期关于毒品集团在美国活动的报道。

I've been wanted to do a story about cartel presence in The US.

我们从一起女性遇害案开始调查，她被残忍折磨，手指被切断，最后惨遭杀害。

We started with a murder investigation of this woman who was tortured, and they cut off her fingers and then eventually killed her.

她是被毒品集团杀害的，地点就在佐治亚州一个偏僻的地方。

And she was killed by the cartel, and it was in the middle of nowhere in Georgia.

后来我们跟进调查，才发现他们无处不在，尤其喜欢在美式小城镇活动。

And then we followed the investigation, and, yeah, realized that they're everywhere and particularly like to operate in small town America.

想了解毒品集团如何明目张胆地潜伏？请收听乔丹·哈宾格播客第13季第2集。

If you wanna hear how cartels hide in plain sight, check out episode 13 o two of the Jordan Harbinger show.

昨天的节目里，我们分析了耐克的财报。

So on yesterday's show, we took a look at Nike's earnings.

我在节目里注意到一个特别突出的点：中国市场的销售额持续下滑，这已经是一个持续多年的趋势了。

And one thing that stood out to me when I was on the show there is the sales declines in China, and this is like a multiyear trend that's been going on.

耐克在中国的销售额比五年前下降了大约三成。

Nike's China sales are down, like, 30% than they were, like, five years ago.

我想深入挖一挖这个现象，结果发现其他很多公司也出现了类似的情况。

And I wanted to pull on this thread some more and you started to see this recurring theme with a lot of other companies.

今天早上《华尔街日报》商业版的头条新闻是，非中国车企在中国的市场份额正在下滑。

The top story in the Wall Street Journal this morning business section was declining market share for non Chinese automotive companies in China.

这紧跟着星巴克把中国业务的多数股权卖给了当地一家私募公司。

This comes on the heels of Starbucks selling a majority stake in its China operations to a local private equity firm.

不少消费品牌，尤其是美妆和个人护理领域的公司，都出现了显著的销售下滑，主要就是中国市场的表现太差。

There's numerous consumer brand companies, especially in like the beauty and health personal care space, that we've seen large retrend declines, mostly because of weak China sales.

这类故事其实不少，以前中国是很多公司的主要增长引擎，现在却成了拖后腿的因素。

So there are a few of the many stories out there that were China was once a major growth engine for a company, but now it's becoming a headwind.

这背后有几个原因，你们有没有注意到什么现象，能帮我们理解这种变化？

And guys, there's a couple reasons for it, but what do you or some of the things that you're seeing that could help explain this phenomenon?

我觉得最明显的一点是，现在中国自己也能做出非常高质量的产品了。

Well, I think that one thing that stands out to me is that China is capable of making really high quality products now.

你想想以前是啥样。

You think about how it used to be.

以前你想省钱，就买中国产的东西；

It used to be you you bought if you want to save money, you bought a Chinese product.

想买质量好的，才选美国货。

If you wanted a quality product, you bought American.

但现在完全不一样了。

And that's no longer the case.

经济学家早就注意到这个趋势了，但普通大众还没真正意识到。

This is a trend that economists have noted for a while, but I don't think that that has sunk in to the consciousness of the general population.

我们脑子里还固执地觉得，中国产的东西质量差。

It's just entrenched in our minds that China makes low quality products.

可事实上，他们的水平早就大幅提升。

But in reality, they've really upped their game.

他们的制造能力非常现代化，而且高度依赖技术。

Their manufacturing capabilities are incredibly modern and incredibly tech heavy.

所以它现在既能打低价市场，满足对便宜货的需求，也能拿下高端品质的产品。

And so it's actually able to compete on both the low quality products for, you know, just cheapness, but also your higher end quality.

它们确实提供了不少可以替代美国品牌的选项。

They do have viable alternatives to some of these American brands.

有意思的是，因为中国在制造基础设施上投入了这么多，美国制造业在价格上根本没法跟它竞争。

And what is interesting is because it has invested so much in the manufacturing infrastructure, it's really hard for American manufacturing to compete on price.

所以中国在这一点上确实有优势，这让它的产品更具吸引力，也给美国公司带来了不小的压力。

And so China does have some advantages when it comes to that, and I think that that does make its products a little bit more of a viable alternative and does put some pressure on American companies.

另一方面，中国国内的消费明显下滑了。

The other side of it is their Chinese consumption has declined significantly.

中国曾经是我们企业最看重的高增长市场之一。

China went from being one of the the highest growth economies that that our companies can get into.

今年第一季度，中国的汽车销量同比下跌了百分之二十。

Vehicle sales in China fell 20% year over year in the first quarter.

还有很多其他行业，我们也都看到了消费下滑的趋势。

There's a lot of other cases or other industries where we're seeing declining consumption.

乔说得对，中国制造商现在生产的产品质量比以往任何时候都高。

And Jon's right, China's manufacturers are making higher quality products than ever before.

他们的创新速度也快得前所未有。

They're innovating at a faster pace than we've seen in in ever before.

这两点结合起来，让美国公司在中国市场很难找到增长空间。

And and the combination of those two things are making it really hard on American companies to to find growth in China.

国内市场需求疲软，迫使企业不得不转向海外寻找市场，这一点非常关键。

The the weak domestic market forcing everyone to find markets elsewhere has been a big thing.

我看到一个惊人的数据：2014年，东南亚地区电子产品、汽车等商品的销售额中，中国品牌只占百分之二十出头，现在已经涨到了64%。

I saw an incredible statistic where it was like, I think it was 20 something percent of sales in broader Southeast Asia of like electronics, cars and stuff like that were Chinese in 2014 and now it's like 64.

这清楚地表明，中国品牌也开始在区域市场上占据主导地位。

Really going to show like they're starting to dominate some of their regional markets as well.

我之前提到了一些已经受到冲击的企业，但大家觉得，还有哪些公司目前还没明显感受到我们刚才说的中国市场的压力，比如耐克那样的企业，但可能很快就会面临同样的问题？

I mentioned some of the companies that have already suffered a little bit, but guys, what are some of the companies on your radar that maybe have not seen the China headwind that we've talked about with like Nike and others, but could be facing it rather sooner rather than later.

关键区别在于，有些公司已经感受到了来自中国的压力，但他们的股价还没完全反映出来。

There's a a difference between having seen the Chinese headwinds and having it priced into their stocks.

我想提一下苹果公司。

So one I would wanna call out is Apple.

苹果公司多年来在中国的市场份额一直在明显下滑。

Apple Apple is a company that has been meaningfully losing market share in China for years.

他们不得不在中国大幅降价促销，而我们知道，苹果在美国从来不会这么做。

I mean, the company has resorted to heavily discounting some of its products in China, and that's a practice as we know that Apple doesn't really do in The US.

总的来说，奢侈品品牌也是另一个例子。

I mean, luxury good makers in general are are another example.

LVMH 就是个典型。

LVMH is is a big one.

他们明确提到，中国市场的放缓正在拖累业绩。

They specifically cited that China slowdown is an earning headwind.

但我认为，苹果是目前还没被市场充分反映的最大的风险。

But I see Apple is the biggest not yet priced in story.

华为的智能手机品质已经实现了指数级提升。

Huawei, their quality of their smartphones have have just grown exponentially.

这可能导致苹果依赖中国市场的收入在未来多年持续下滑。

And this could keep part of Apple's revenue base that's tied to China declining for for years to come.

就我而言，现在还不用太紧张，我觉得这未必是个迫在眉睫的问题，但AI内存现在确实是个巨大的趋势。

For my part, I don't want to sound the alarm yet because I don't think that this is a problem necessarily yet, but AI memory is a huge, huge trend right now.

有些公司因为产品供不应求，利润率高得前所未有。

There are companies enjoying just, unprecedented profit margins because of how in demand their products are and how little supply that there is.

我觉得这个趋势还会持续相当长一段时间。

That is a trend that I do foresee continuing for some time.

不过我们得留意中国市场上的一些进展，特别是重庆记忆科技公司。

However, we do need to make note of some advancements, potentially advancements in the Chinese market, and that's from Chongqing Memory Technologies.

据报道，他们现在的内存产品已经和三星、SK海力士持平了。

It reportedly just reached a parity with Samsung and SK Hynix with their memory products.

但他们还得再提升一点，才能真正挑战AI所需的高端HBM4产品。

Now they would still need to level up just a little bit more to really start taking on the the top high bandwidth memory generation four products that AI really needs.

但差距确实在缩小。

But it it is closing that gap.

如果突然间，一家中国科技公司推出了一款性能相当的内存产品，就有可能抢走一部分国际市场份额，至少会打破当前内存市场供需失衡的局面。

And if all of a sudden a Chinese technology company could release a memory product that is on par, it might be able to siphon off some of the market share, at least in the international markets, which would disrupt the supply and demand imbalance in the memory market.

我想试试提出一个正在成形的投资思路。

Guys, I wanna I wanna test out like a a working investment thesis.

这不是针对某一家公司，而是一个更宏观的主题。

It's not on a particular company, it's it's a little bit more of a theme.

我们提到的这些公司——耐克、苹果，还有那些内存企业，都在全球化扩张阶段大获其利，从上世纪90年代 NAFTA 开始，一直到2016、2017年，全球化的长尾红利让它们顺利进入中国市场和全球市场，成为这些地区的主要玩家。

The companies we've mentioned, Nike, Apple, some of the memory companies, a lot of these companies benefited in the international growth phase immensely, you know, from, I would say, like, starting with like NAFTA in 1990 all the way up until 2016, 2017 was this long tail growth of globalization, entering the Chinese market, entering global markets, and a lot of these companies became dominant players in the international markets like China.

但现在我开始觉得，像这些已经成熟的企业，它们的增长逻辑已经变成‘必须在国际上，尤其是中国和东南亚赢下来，才能继续扩张’，这种模式反而变得没那么可靠了。

And I'm starting to think that now that these mature companies, the ones that have, you know, gotten to the point, it's like we need to win internationally, especially in China and Southeast Asia to grow our businesses further, I feel like those are weaker ones.

而那些还没到必须靠国际市场才能增长阶段的公司，它们在国内市场还有很大的发展空间。

And companies that not have yet reached the, we need to start winning internationally to grow, we can, we still have a lot of room domestically.

我觉得，现阶段更值得投资的是这类公司，因为现在的国际市场比过去要竞争得多得多。

I feel companies in that phase are likely better investments today because the international markets are just far more competitive than what they used to be.

这就是我目前的投资思路。

So that's my working thesis here.

你们觉得怎么样？

What do you guys agree?

有不同意见吗？

Disagree?

我该在哪些地方调整一下？

Where should I tweak this?

我觉得大方向上你是对的。

I think directionally you're right.

过去十年，很多国际市场，尤其是中国，竞争激烈多了。

Many international markets, especially China have become far more competitive over the past decade or so.

市场体量变大了，但消费却下滑了，你现在是在跟更擅长的公司争夺一个更小的蛋糕。

And it's big, I mean consumption's declined, you're competing for a share of a smaller market with companies that are doing it better.

像星巴克、耐克，还有汽车厂商，过去靠拓展海外市场就能轻松增长，但现在这条路行不通了。

I mean, companies like Starbucks, Nike, like the automakers used to use that easy growth from international expansion playbook and you simply can't do that anymore.

你看今年标普500指数表现最好的前十名、前二十名公司，几乎都是靠国内业务驱动的。

And I mean, when you look at the top ten, twenty performers of the S and P 500 so far this year, they're almost all US driven businesses that get most of their revenue domestically.

但这并不意味着国际市场将来不会再成为重要的增长动力。

But that's not to say that international's never going be a big growth driver again.

所以我建议调整一下这个观点：最好的策略不是避开那些积极拓展国际业务的公司，而是优先选择那些有明确国际战略的公司——比如专注于某个特定市场或某项技术，并且真正深耕其中的企业。

So I would refine that thesis to say the best move isn't to avoid companies that are pursuing international exposure, it's to favor companies that have more of a focused international strategy built on, you know, mastering a certain market or a certain technology in a certain market that have really a focus.

对。

Yeah.

泰勒，我稍微有点不同意你的看法。

Tyler, I would I would disagree with you slightly.

对我来说，很难想象一家长期表现优异的公司，尤其是科技公司，却在国际市场上缺乏竞争力。

It's it's really hard for me to imagine a company that especially a technology company that does well over the long term that doesn't compete well internationally.

也许像美国本土的零售连锁店或餐饮连锁店这样的企业，不靠国际市场也能给股东带来不错的回报。

Maybe there's a case for like a retail chain in The US or a restaurant chain that, you know, it doesn't need international to provide good shareholder returns.

但很多这类公司，如果真想成为改变生活、值得我们长期持有的投资标的，它们迟早得进军国际市场，并且要在激烈的竞争中胜出。

But a lot of these companies, if they are going to be some of these life changing investments, the ones that we wanna own, chances are they're gonna have to go to the international markets for growth, and they're just gonna have to win in spite of the competition.

而且，我对一些在中国市场表现不佳的公司，其实也有些疑惑。

And, you know, I halfway wonder with some of these companies that are doing poorly in China.

以前这事儿没那么难。

It used to be an easier game.

这一点我承认你说得对。

I'll concede that point to you.

我一直在想，那些最早进入中国市场的公司，是不是因为当初在中国做业务太容易了，就松懈了，只顾着简单地加个中国业务，等着增量收入自己送上门。

And I wonder if some of these early movers in China just didn't get lazy with how easy it was to just bolt on China operations and then start getting incremental revenue.

现在情况变了，一下子变难了，他们却还睡着没醒——毕竟还是有公司在中国做得挺好的。

And now, all of a sudden, it's harder and they were caught with asleep at the wheel because some companies are doing well still in China.

我想提一下德克户外这家公司。

And one that I'd like to point out is DECKER Outdoor.

它的股票代码是 D E C K。

This is ticker symbol d e c k.

这家公司是 HOKA 和 UGG 这些鞋类品牌的母公司。

This is a parent company of shoe brands, HOKA and UGG.

你知道吗，它在中国的销售额还在持续增长。

You know, it's really still growing sales in China.

他们还是按原价销售，所以保持了很高的利润率。

It's selling them for full price, so it's maintaining those strong profit margins.

管理层说，目前在中国的品牌认知度只有百分之三十。

And, management says there's only 30% brand awareness yet in China.

所以中国市场的增长空间依然很大。

So there there's potentially still room for ongoing growth in China.

我觉得有些公司在中国竞争得不错，值得我们关注。

So I think that some companies are competing well, and I think that those deserve some attention.

顺便提一下HOKA，我刚买了新的Speedgoat 7，真得说，这产品太棒了。

Slight shout out to HOKA because I just got my new Speedgoat sevens, and I gotta tell you that is a fantastic product.

我可不是为了拿钱才这么说的。

They're not even paying me to say that.

纯属免费安利。

Free advertisement.

好了，Deckers，你们听到了吧。

There you go, Deckers.

广告之后，我们来回复听众来信。

Coming up after the break, we're gonna hit the mailbag.

你好。

Hey.

我是《科技新闻周刊》的米迦·桑格特，今天这期节目特别精彩。

It's Micah Sargent from tech news weekly, and I've got a great show for you.

我们邀请到了阿巴尔·阿尔希提，聊了很多内容。

Abar Alhiti joins us, and we talk about quite a bit.

首先，我们谈到了皮尤研究中心的一项报告，数据显示只有5%的美国人真正乘坐过自动驾驶汽车。

First and foremost, has been in quite a few of them, and we talk about the Pew Research Center's report on, well, only 5% of Americans actually riding in them.

接着，我们讨论了网络安全研究机构的一项报告，指出当前针对儿童的社交媒体安全工具根本不起作用。

Afterwards, they talk about a report from Cyber Safety Research that claims those social media safety tools for kids just aren't working.

这份报告其实非常有意思，强烈推荐你去看看。

It's actually a really interesting report and well worth checking out.

然后索尼宣布，到2028年将彻底淘汰实体光盘。

Then Sony has announced in 2028, bye bye, physical discs.

我和阿布拉尔聊了聊实体媒体的终结、数字媒体的兴起，以及由此带来的各种影响，最后还讨论了最高法院关于地理围栏搜查令的裁决。

Abraar and I talked about the end of physical media, the pickup of digital media, and the consequences therein before rounding things out with the Supreme Court's ruling on geofence warrants.

你可以在 twit.tv/gnw 找到《科技新闻周刊》，或者在你听播客的平台直接搜索‘科技新闻周刊’。

You can find tech news weekly at twit.tv/gnw, or just search for tech news weekly wherever you get your podcasts.

大家好。

Hey, everyone.

这里给大家做个简短提醒。

Here's your quick reminder.

如果你想让自己的问题在节目中被读出来并得到回复，就发邮件到 podcasts@fool.com。

As always, if you wanna get your question read on air and for us to answer it, go to podcasts@fool.com.

邮箱是 podcasts 加上 s，@fool.com。

That's podcasts with an s @fool.com.

记住，问题要简短，方便我们念出来，别问个人化的建议，我们没法提供；最好围绕通用公司或投资理念这类话题来谈。

Always remember, keep it foolish, keep it short enough we can read on air, and we cannot give any personalized advice, so try to keep it relatively impersonal and thoughts about generic companies or, you know, investing thesis and stuff like that.

今天的问题来自怀特岛的马克·弗罗斯特。

So today's question comes from Mark Frost from the Isle Of Wight.

他对于很多公司股价的明显差异感到困惑，用他的话说就是很不解，这其实跟我们之前聊的标普500六个月回报率有关。

And basically, he's confounded or bemused was his word at some of the price discrepancies in a lot of companies, and it kinda ties back to what we were talking about with the S and P 500, you know, six month returns for here.

他特别提到AI硬件供应商，列了一长串名单，这些公司的市盈率都超过40，他认为当前股价远远高估了。

And his thing is AI hardware suppliers, he gives a list of quite a few of them, with, you know, price to earnings ratios over 40 and saying their current price is way ahead of fair value.

但像微软、Meta、谷歌这些大型软件公司和云服务商，他认为股价其实被低估了，它们长期稳定地创造现金流和利润，这些都是实打实的。

Whereas some of the big software companies and the hyperscalers, Microsoft, Meta, Google, he argues where fair prices are way above current share price, and they have these long track records of really good cash generation profits, you know, things like that.

当然，他也明白有人担心AI会冲击这些公司的商业模式，不过每一家都牢牢掌握着客户关系。

Understanding, you know, the argument concerns about AI eating into these business models, in that each case they own the customer relationship.

他 basically 就是想问：我是不是漏掉了什么？

He basically, he's asking like, what am I missing here?

这背后只是跟风心理在作祟，才导致这种非常规的估值差距吗？

Is it just herd mentality that we're seeing this wide discrepancy of kind of like unconventional valuations?

还是说，有什么他现在还没看出来的动态因素？

Or is this, you know, maybe a dynamic he's not seeing right now?

说白了，他确实说对了，这其实就是从众心理在起作用。

I mean, essentially he's right that it's herd mentality.

投资者愿意为那些未来增长前景明确的公司支付高价，比如卡特彼勒，而不是为那些现金流稳定但未来增长或创新潜力不确定的公司买单，像Salesforce和微软这类公司。

I mean, investors are willing to pay a high premium for companies that have high confidence future growth, like Caterpillar for example, as opposed to tangible cash flow at reasonable multiple, but with uncertain future growth or innovation potential, like Salesforce and Microsoft and those kind of companies.

换句话说，市场对AI基础设施的需求抱有高度信心和低风险预期，却对AI巨头持怀疑态度。

So in other words, the mic the market is is pricing AI infrastructure demand with high confidence and low risk, while pricing AI giants with skepticism.

不过我要说明的是，我不确定市场现在哪一边是对的，说实话，我觉得两边都不太对。

Now to be clear, I don't know if the market's right on either side of that right now, and I, quite frankly, I don't think it is.

有不少AI基础设施公司的估值，在我看来，已经涨得有点过头了。

There there are a lot of AI infrastructure players whose valuations, in my opinion, have gotten a little bit ahead of themselves.

但当你看到一批股票齐刷刷地一起动的时候，这种从众心理确实很难忽视。

But it is hard mentality when you see groups of stocks like those move together.

是的。

Yeah.

我只想说，像微软、Meta这些公司的运营现金流确实很稳定，但它们的支出规模已经完全变了。

The only thing I would say to the predictable cash flows of the Microsoft's, Meta's of the world is the operations cash flows are very predictable, but the amount of money they're spending has completely changed.

我觉得这确实改变了自由现金流的格局，毕竟我们已经看到Meta这样的公司开始举债了。

And I think that does change the dynamic in terms of free cash flow because, you know, we've seen companies like Meta taking on debt.

我们甚至看到谷歌宣布增发股票，因为他们明确表示，未来几年的支出将超过运营现金流。

We've even seen Alphabet announce an equity raise because they're basically saying we're going to outspend our operational cash flow in the coming years.

这已经不再是那种随便就能产生大量多余现金的时期了。

So it's not just, you know, the period where it's like, we're throwing off all this excess cash.

这对很多公司的支出模式来说，确实正在发生根本性变化。

It's it it is changing the spending dynamic for a lot of these companies.

是的。

Yeah.

回到刚才的问题，第一点本质上是羊群效应，说实话，我们完全可以做一期专门讲羊群效应，因为这股力量在市场中非常真实。

To go back to the question, I mean, the first part was essentially herd mentality, and I think we could do a whole episode on herd mentality quite frankly because I think that that is a very tangible force in the market.

我同意马特的看法。

I agree with Matt.

我觉得未来这种趋势还会加剧，原因如下。

And I think that it's going to become even higher in in the future, and here's why.

现在人们获取信息、研究公司变得越来越容易了。

It's just becoming so much easier to have access to information and to research companies.

所以在我看来，现在有更多人去发现公司，这再自然不过了。

And so to me, it's only natural that more people would be discovering companies than compared to in the past.

你想想当年的沃伦·巴菲特。

You'd look back at Warren Buffett back in the day.

他可是一页一页地翻纸质手册，一个个找投资点子。

I mean, he's flipping through these booklets on paper, you know, one by one to find ideas.

那时候没几个人会这么干。

Not a lot of people are gonna do that.

但现在有了AI工具，我随便写几个关键词，就能深入挖掘，发现不少新公司。

But with even AI tooling, I can make some prompts and start going down some rabbit holes and discovering some companies.

我觉得这会让越来越多的人发现新的投资机会。

So I think that that will lead to more people discovering things.

这确实会加剧跟风现象。

I think that does increase the possibility of herd mentality.

不过我要说，跟风并不一定就是错的。

And I will point out that herd mentality isn't necessarily wrong.

群体可能是对的，所以我现在想替反方说几句。

The herd can be right, and so, I wanna play devil's advocate right there.

我这儿也想换个角度说说。

And I'll play devil's advocate here too.

你看看卡特彼勒的股价，市盈率都到51倍了。

I mean, you look at Caterpillar stock trading at 51 times earnings.

是啊。

Yeah.

这确实不寻常。

That's unusual.

它过去五年的平均市盈率才20倍左右。

It's five year average down at 20 times earnings.

现在价格比平时高出一倍多。

So more than double what it normally trades at.

但它未来有没有超出平均水平的盈利增长潜力呢？

But does it have above average earnings growth potential on the horizon?

我觉得它未来也有这个潜力。

And I would say it potentially does there as well.

一些分析师预计，未来三年每股收益将增长60%。

Some analysts are calling for 60% earnings per share growth over the next three years.

你可以想象，特别是他们的往复式发动机业务。

You can imagine a scenario where in particular, it's reciprocating engines.

他们正打算把产能扩大三倍。

It's looking to triple its capacity to produce those.

未来三年甚至更久，如果市场需求持续强劲，盈利增长可能会进一步加速。

You could see a a scenario where three years and beyond, earnings growth even picks up more because business demand is so strong.

所以，也许正是这些增长前景支撑着当前的估值。

So maybe those earnings growth do carry it and justify the valuation today.

这并不是我最看好的投资选择，但如果你告诉我你现在想以这个价格买入卡特彼勒的股票，我不会觉得你疯了。

Now that's not my highest bet for the future, but I am saying if you told me that you wanted to buy Caterpillar stock today at these valuations, I wouldn't think that you were crazy.

我觉得当前的情况确实有它的道理。

I think that there is some justification to what's happening.

我会把笔记本保持打开。

I'll keep my notebook out.

我觉得她的观点特别有价值，要么一直适用，要么适合提前录好。

I feel like her mentality will be a great, either evergreen or one of those ones where we have to prerecord.

不过今天的时间就到这里了。

But that is all the time we have for today.

Matt，Jon，谢谢你们分享的见解。

Matt, Jon, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

我这就念免责声明，咱们下线。

I'm gonna hit the disclosure and we'll get out of here.

和往常一样，节目中的嘉宾可能持有相关股票。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks to talk

而富达也可能持有或不持有这些股票，

about and The Motley Fool may

所以别光凭我们说的就去买或卖股票。

have formal for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what we appear.

所有个人理财内容均遵循富达的编辑标准，且未经广告商审核。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告内容仅为提供信息，属于赞助性质。

Advertisements are sponsored content provided for informational purposes only.

如需查看完整的广告披露说明，请参阅

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check

我们的节目备注。

out our show notes.

感谢我们的制作人巴特·香农以及富达团队的其他成员。

Thanks to our producer Bart Shannon and the rest of The Motley Fool team.

代表乔恩、马特和我本人，感谢收听，我们下次再聊。

For Jon, Matt, and myself, thanks for listening and we'll chat again soon.