互联网正在快速变化

互联网可能即将变得有点奇怪了。

The Internet might be about to get weird.

Motley Fool 隐藏瑰宝投资节目现在开始。

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing starts now.

欢迎来到 Motley Fool 隐藏瑰宝投资节目。

Welcome to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

今天我是你的主持人，乔恩·夸斯特。

I'm your host today, Jon Quast.

今天和我一起的是长期为Fool撰稿的嘉宾，马特·弗兰克尔和泰勒·克劳。

Joining me today are guest long time Fool contributors, Matt Frankel and Tyler Crowe.

今天我和泰勒调换了座位。

Me and Tyler switching seats today.

但今天，我们要谈论一些矿业股票，以及英特尔一笔150亿美元的大动作。

But today, we're talking about some mining stocks as well as a $15,000,000,000 move from Intel.

但首先，我想聊聊这条新闻。

But first, I wanna talk about this bit of news.

你知道，财报季总是很忙，有时候有些事就在这热闹中被忽略了。

You know, earning season always a busy time, and sometimes things get lost in the commotion.

我觉得被忽略的一件事就是Cloudflare在8月6号发布的第二季度财报。

One of the things that I feel like got lost was when Cloudflare reported its second quarter earnings on August 6.

这家公司在Motley Fool Hidden Gems的排名里是前十的股票，但这次财报表现其实很好。

Now, this is a top 10 ranked stock in The Motley Fool hidden gems universe, but the report was great.

投资者反应还行，但在财报电话会议的评论中，联合创始人兼CEO Matthew Prince谈到了互联网上的AI代理流量，说在5月份，AI代理首次超过了人类活动在其网络上的流量。

Investors responded fine, but buried in the earnings commentary on the call, co founder and CEO Matthew Prince was talking about AI agentic traffic on the Internet, saying that for the first time, AI agents surpassed human activity on its network in May.

公司之前已经预测到这种情况会发生，但实际发生的时间比预期要早。

And the company had projected this to happen already, but it's happening faster than its timeline.

然后他们还说，他们预计未来五年内，网络上的AI代理流量会是人类流量的1000倍。

And then they went on to say that they actually expect AI agent traffic on the web to be 1,000 times bigger than human traffic within the next five years.

增长对投资来说太重要了。

And growth is something that is so important to investing.

我看到这个说法的时候，真的引起了我的注意。

It's something that caught my eye when I saw this statement.

不过马特和泰勒，我想先听听你们的看法。

But Matt and Tyler, I wanna get your reactions just first here.

你们对马修·普林斯这番话有什么感想？

What did you think about this statement from Matthew Prince?

一方面，我理解他的逻辑，虽然我觉得那个一千倍的数据可能有点过于乐观了。

On one hand, I understand the logic even though I think the 1,000 x figure might be a little bit too ambitious.

代理式AI流量在过去十二个月里增长了大约十八倍，如果五年内达到一千倍，那就意味着接下来五年每年都要翻两番左右。

The Agentic AI traffic, it increased by about 18 x over the past twelve months, and a thousand times in five years should mean roughly quadrupling every year for the next five years.

所以这其实意味着增速会放缓。

So that would actually be a deceleration from what we've seen.

另外也有观点认为，人类上网流量是有上限的。

There's also the case to be made that human Internet traffic has a natural ceiling.

我们不可能无限制地查阅各种信息。

We can only look up so much stuff.

我们也无法同时处理太多的任务。

We can only, you know, perform so many tasks at a time.

过去大约十年，人类驱动的互联网流量只保持了低个位数的增长，这是有原因的。

There's a reason that human driven Internet traffic has only grown at a low single digit rate for about the past decade.

而智能体没有这种天然的上限。

Agents don't have this natural ceiling.

它只取决于做这些工作的成本，以及我们交给它们多少任务。

It only depends on the cost of doing the work and how many tasks we give them to do.

显然，任务的数量是没有限制的。

Obviously, there's no limit to the the latter there.

成本在下降，使用量在上升。

Costs are falling and usage is rising.

正如我提到的，五年内增长一千倍可能有点夸张，但成本确实在朝着正确的方向下降。

A thousand x in five years, as I mentioned, it could be a stretch, but the costs are certainly heading in the right direction.

过去两年，token成本已经下降了一个数量级，而使用量大约增长了100倍。

The token costs, they've dropped by an order of magnitude over the past two years, and we've seen, like, roughly a 100 x increase in usage.

所以，如果这种成本下降的模式持续下去，智能体AI的使用量可能会飙升。

So if that pattern of decreasing cost continues, Agentic AI usage could soar.

我不确定是不是能翻一千倍，但肯定高得多。

I don't know about a thousand x, but a lot higher.

我想拿这个做个类比：如果你每天把一分钱翻倍，一个月后大概就有五百六十万美元了。

I wanna kinda compare this to that if you double a penny every day for a month, we have, like, $5,600,000.

我是说，从数学上讲确实是这样，而且像最近看到的那样，早期数字翻倍是合理的。

I mean, yes, the math says it works out that way, and doubling early numbers like we've seen recently makes sense.

但最终，这种增长速度会变得有点不可持续。

But eventually, that pace does become somewhat unsustainable.

我们一直都能看到这种投资现象。

We see this investing all the time.

你知道的，投资的S型曲线，事情会加速，然后最终又会减速。

You know, the s curve of investing, things accelerate, and then they eventually decelerate.

我们在公司的收入轨迹上经常能看到这一点。

We see it with companies, revenue trajectories all the time.

你看。

Look.

代理网络流量在幕后进行，并不意味着没有成本。

Just because agentic web traffic is happening behind the scenes doesn't mean it's without cost.

是的，成本在下降，但依然有成本。

And, yes, costs are declining, but there is cost to it.

而且会有一个拐点，届时所有代理网络流量的计算成本会限制增长。

And there will be some inflection point where the compute costs for all this agentic web traffic throttles growth.

某个地方、某个人在审视他们的AI成本支出时，需要看到投资回报。

Someone, somewhere looking at their AI cost spending will need to see an ROI on this.

而且，你知道，对于所有这些机器人流量，他们就是这么做的。

And, you know, for all this bot traffic, that's what they're doing.

最终，他们必须看到回报。

Eventually, they're gonna have to see a return.

如果他们看不到回报，就不会继续投入，因为否则，有什么意义呢？

If they're not seeing it, they're not gonna be spending on it because otherwise, what's the point?

嗯，听起来你们两位都对那个1000倍的数字有点怀疑，这也很正常。

Well, it sounds like both of you then are a little bit skeptical on the 1,000 x number, and that's fair.

如果你觉得 Cloudflare 在这儿是在吹牛，尽管直说。

If you believe that Cloudflare is blowing some smoke here, feel free to say so.

不过我确实想做个推演，我想展望一下未来。

But I do want to imagine here, I do wanna project, I wanted to look into the future.

假设到2030年，至少在方向上没错的话，Agentic AI 流量相比人类流量的占比会持续大幅上升。

Let's say by 2030, if at least this is directionally right, that the share of Agentic AI traffic is going to continue to increase at a large rate compared to the human traffic.

那五年后的互联网会不一样吗？

Will the Internet look different in five years?

那会发生什么变化？

And what changes would happen?

从我们的角度来看，会有什么不同？

What would be different from our perspective?

具体会是什么样子？

What would it look like?

就像我刚才说的，我对那个一千倍的说法还是不太信服，我觉得实际数字离这个目标差得远呢。

Like I said, I'm not totally sold on the thousand x figure or that it's gonna be anything close to that.

但咱们先假设这个数字最后被证明是准确的。

But let's just assume for a minute that that proves to be accurate.

我觉得最大的不同会在于互联网怎么赚钱。

The main thing that I see that would be very different is how money is made from the Internet.

在普林斯的评论里，他正确指出，互联网的普遍商业模式近三十年来一直靠广告支撑，而这种情况可能会改变。

In in Prince's comments, he correctly says that the general business model of the Internet has been defined by advertising for almost three decades, and this could change.

我的意思是，如果只有0.01%的浏览量来自人类，那为什么还要像人类会看你的页面那样去投放广告呢？

I mean, if a point 01% of your views are gonna be human, then why would you advertise as if humans were going to be watch looking at your page?

所以我不太确定那会是什么样子，但广告商需要找到新的方式来触达客户，在一个智能体世界里，也许是通过智能体来触达。

So I'm not exactly sure what that might look like, but advertisers would need to figure out new ways to reach customers in an agentic world, maybe reach them through agents.

而且，如果每一万次展示里只有一两次是给人类的，那出版商按展示量卖广告位的方式可能就不太管用了。

And the ways that publishers sell ad space based on impressions might not work well anymore if only one or two out of every 10,000 impressions is made to a human being.

我是说，当你想想互联网有多少部分是围绕广告和这种开放性建立的，那确实是一个可能发生的深刻变化，马特。

I mean, when you think about how much of the Internet is built around this whole concept of advertising and being open in that way, I mean, that is actually a really profound change that would possibly be occurring there, Matt.

所以我很感谢你提出这一点。

So I appreciate you bringing that up.

但是，泰勒，我也想听听你的看法。

But, Tyler, I want you to weigh in here as well.

我可能在这整个环节里都会显得像个老顽固，但我对AI代理流量增长1000倍这个说法持保留态度。

I'm probably gonna sound like a curmudgeon throughout most of this segment, but I am taking the under on this 1,000 x AI agent traffic.

我觉得这听起来确实像是普林斯在为自己说话，因为很明显，Cloudflare会从指数级的网络流量增长中获益巨大。

I mean, this really does sort of sound like Prince is talking his book because, like, obviously, Cloudflare would benefit immensely from exponential web traffic growth.

问题不仅在于他说了什么，还在于他为什么这么说。

It's not just what he's saying, but why he might be saying it.

你知道，这类声明中，利益动机确实起了一定作用。

This, you know, a little bit of the incentives matter in these sort of statements.

说到改变互联网，我们已经看到类似的情况发生了，比如移动端友好的网页设计，以及过去七到十年间搜索引擎优化的爆发。

In terms of changing the Internet, like, we've already seen this happen with, like, mobile friendly web pages and the explosion of search engine optimization for, like, the past seven to ten years.

我们有了那个汉堡包样式的下拉菜单。

We have that hamburger looking drop down menu.

那是因为我们想要移动端友好的设计，以便进行搜索引擎优化。

That's because we wanted mobile friendly design for search engine optimization.

网页是为两类受众写的。

Web pages are written for two audiences.

一类是人类，另一类是谷歌的搜索算法。

You have the human, and then you have the Google's search engine algorithm.

如果你好奇为什么一个简单的在线食谱页面能变成一万字的文章，那正是SEO军备竞赛在全面上演。

I mean, if you've ever wondered why a single online recipe page became a 10,000 word novella, they're witnessing, like, SEO nuclear arms race in full effect.

关键词和短语能提高评分，而且长度几乎不受惩罚。

Pieces are scored better with keywords and phrases without much penalty for length.

到了这个地步，连赫尔曼·梅尔维尔都会想删减一下。

You get to this point, and Herman Melville will be almost be like, might wanna cut that down a little bit.

所以预测这种代理式网络搜索，并假设普林斯的观点——我不确定。

So projecting this agentic web search and assuming Prince's I don't know.

但他说的大方向是对的。

Just directionally correct with what he's saying here.

我们将会看到为AI代理优化的网页。

We're going to get AI agent optimized web pages.

如果我要建一个网站，而我知道我的流量中人类用户少得可怜，那我为什么还要为人类建网站呢？

If I'm building a site where I know so little of my traffic is human, why would I even build it for humans?

这个对比太到位了，就像我们当初转向移动网络一样，当然，那也带来了很多市场机会。

That's such a good comparison on the shift that we made to mobile web, and that, of course, created lots of opportunities in the market.

互联网发生了翻天覆地的变化，有些公司赚了钱，有些投资者赢了。

There were profound changes that happened to the Internet, and there were companies that made money and investors who won.

我觉得这正是我们的听众最关心的，因为我们正在考虑互联网可能如何变化，以及我们已经看到的变化。

And I think that's really what our listeners care about most here as we consider how the Internet might be changing and and the changes that we're already seeing.

所以我想把最后一个问题留给你们两位。

And so I wanna leave this final question here for both of you.

如果互联网开始转向为这些智能体优化，那会带来哪些投资机会呢？

What opportunities might be created from a change in how the Internet if we are going to start building a web that is focused towards these agents, what might that create in far as investing opportunities?

如果整个互联网的流量要增加一千倍，我最看好那些让基础设施运转的公司。

If overall Internet traffic is about to 1,000 x, I'm most bullish on the companies that make the infrastructure work.

我指的是那些为数据中心提供电力基础设施的公司。

Like, I'm talking about the companies that provide the power infrastructure data centers need.

冷却系统，随着它们变得越来越复杂和密集，这个问题也越来越严重。

The cooling systems, which is becoming an increasing problem as they get more complex and dense.

热岛效应真是个问题。

The heat island thing is a real problem.

如果那个千倍预测是正确的话，其他一些东西的需求也可能会激增。

Other things that will likely surge in demand if that thousand x prediction is correct.

但我要提醒的是，即使我们对这个机会的方向判断是对的，你知道，代理式人工智能真的接管互联网流量，这些股票的估值仍然很重要。

But I would caution that even if we're directionally correct about this opportunity, you know, Agentic AI really taking over Internet traffic, the valuation of all these stocks still matters.

我的意思是，我现在最喜欢的一些AI基础设施公司，它们的市盈率已经很高了，尤其对于像我这样的价值投资者来说。

I mean, some of my favorite AI infrastructure companies are trading for pretty high multiples right now, especially for a value investor like me.

举个例子，1999年所有人都百分百正确地认为互联网会彻底改变世界。

As an example, everybody was a 100% correct that the Internet was gonna revolutionize the world in 1999.

泡沫破裂后，思科花了十七年才回到之前的高点。

It took Cisco seventeen years to come back to its previous high after the bubble burst.

GE Vernova和Quanta Services，这两家公司是我想到的，我很想拥有，但可能会等估值更吸引人时再买，所以你可能不会在我的投资组合里看到它们。

GE Vernova, Quanta Services, those are two companies that come to mind that I would love to own, but I'd probably wait for a more attractive valuation before you'll actually find them in my portfolio.

你呢，泰勒？

How about you, Tyler?

乔恩，我先道个歉，因为我要犯媒体行业最严重的错误之一。

Jon, I apologize in advance because I'm gonna commit one of the worst sins in in media.

我要说，我其实还不太确定。

And I'm gonna say I'm not really sure yet.

我知道这正在发生。

I know it's happening.

我还在努力理解其中的机制。

I'm still trying to wrap my head around the mechanics of it.

我的意思是，是的，这确实支持AI基础设施建设的说法。

I mean, yes, it does support the AI infrastructure build out narrative.

但是，这难道不是已经包含在目前对AI潜力和计算需求的预测中了吗？

But isn't that already kind of baked into AI's potential in the current compute demand projections that we have out there?

我的意思是，也许这只是额外的一个数据点，表明AI基础设施建设有更多的支撑，而且，你知道，也许我们不必太担心，比如，哦，这一切都太泡沫了，因为我们现在开始看到一些实实在在的东西。

I mean, maybe this is just an added data point that the AI infrastructure build out has that extra leg to stand on, and, you know, maybe we don't have to worry as much about like, oh, this is all super inflated because now we're starting to see some tangible things.

不过说到你提到的广告收入这块业务，我更多是从理论层面来思考。因为我们已经看到像The Trade Desk这样的公司因为封闭生态系统和广告行业的变化而遭受重创，这看起来会让情况变得更糟。

But to that, like, ad revenue business that you're talking about, I'm thinking almost like on a theoretical basis because we've seen companies like The Trade Desk get absolutely hammered because of walled gardens and the way that the advertising business has shifted, and this would seem to make it a lot worse.

但确实会有机会给那些能够区分人类和机器人的人，也就是能分辨出给你的网站带来流量的是真人还是机器人的平台。

But there is gonna be an opportunity for somebody like that who can discern between, like, a human and a clanker who's bringing your web traffic to your website.

如果你能把广告投给对的人，或者找到某种方式去影响AI代理——不一定是我们传统意义上的广告投放，而是通过呈现某些内容来影响AI代理做出决策的方式——那这里可能也存在一些机会。

And if you can deliver ads for the right person or if there is some sort of way to influence AI agents with not necessarily, like, the advertising that we think of today, but some sort of way to influence the way that AI agents make executive decisions based on what is presented, there is probably some opportunities there as well.

再说一次，对我来说，这还比较偏向理论层面。

Again, this is like, to me, it's a little theoretical.

我还没看到真正能高效落地这套商业计划的方案。

I haven't really seen the effective business plan that executes this well.

所以，这就是我为什么还在纠结，也为什么说需要多看市场上现有的东西。

But, again, why I'm struggling with this and why I'm saying I need to see more of what's out in the market available.

好吧，泰勒，我就先不怪你了。我觉得谦逊是投资者最重要的品质之一，承认‘目前还不确定’是一种智力上的诚实。

Well, Tyler, I'll go ahead and forgive you because I think that humility is one of the most important traits an investor can have, and saying, don't know yet is intellectually honest.

所以我接受这个说法。

So I'll allow it.

好吧，兄弟。

Well, look, man.

我十二年前在CNBC上说过这话，从那以后就再也没被邀请过。

I said that on CNBC once, like, twelve years ago, and I haven't been invited back since.

所以我敢肯定，你不该那么说。

So I'm pretty sure, you're not supposed to do it.

好吧，我们会邀请你回到这个播客的。

Well, we'll invite you back on this podcast.

但这一部分就到这里。

But that's it for this segment.

休息之后，我们要深入聊聊一些矿业股票。

After the break, we're going to dig into some mining stocks.

你正在收听Motley Fool的隐藏瑰宝投资节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

你刚发现你的销售团队可能完不成销售指标了。

You just found out that your sales team is at risk of missing quota.

别慌。

Don't panic.

直接问问Rippling AI。

Just ask Rippling AI.

因为它基于你实时的人员和业务数据，Rippling AI可以从Rippling和Salesforce中提取指标，生成一个会议就绪的仪表盘，显示按地区划分的配额完成率、人员编制计划和每月收入与配额的对比。

Since it's built on your real time people and business data, Rippling AI can pull metrics from Rippling and Salesforce into a meeting ready dashboard showing quota attainment, headcount plan, and monthly revenue to quota by region.

几秒钟内，你就能清楚看到配额风险背后的原因，并在错过之前解决它。

In seconds, you'll see exactly what's behind your quota risk and fix it before it's missed.

问题得到回答，行动得到落实，危机得以避免。

Question answered, action taken, crisis averted.

当你有关键的业务问题需要答案时，不要只提交工单然后等上几周才拿到过时的报告。

When you have critical business questions that need answers, don't just file a ticket and wait weeks for an outdated report.

描述你的需求，让Rippling AI从你实时的人员和业务数据中即时构建出来。

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无论是带有详细图表的仪表盘，还是带有正确触发器、条件和审批的自动化工作流程。

Whether it's a dashboard with detailed charts or automated workflows with the right triggers, conditions, and approvals.

准备好掌控你的生意了吗？

Ready to rule your business?

前往 rippling.ai/fool，获取唯一能让你全面掌控并跨整个组织执行复杂操作的AI。

Head to rippling.ai/fool to get the only AI built to give you full visibility and take complex actions across your entire organization.

网址是 rippling.ai/fool。

That's rippling.ai/fool.

今天就注册获取独家访问权限，rippling.ai/fool。

Sign up for exclusive access today, rippling.ai/fool.

欢迎回到Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

特朗普政府周末在矿业方面发布了一些重大声明，今天有一些矿业股票上涨。

So the Trump administration over the weekend making some big announcements regarding mining, and there are some mining stocks that are up today.

我想花点时间聊聊这个。

I wanna talk about this for a moment.

当然，这其中有地缘政治的因素。

There is, of course, a geopolitical angle here.

美国很多矿物都是从中国进口的。

The USA gets a lot of its minerals from China.

当然，美国希望能减少对中国的依赖。

Of course, it would like to be less reliant on that.

而看起来拖国家后腿的一个因素就是劳动力。

And one of the things that is appears to be holding our country back is the workforce.

根据一些报道，中国每年毕业的采矿工程师超过三千人。

And so according to some reports, China graduates over 3,000 minuteing engineers annually.

而美国这边，每年只有大约一百七十人，连一百七十人都不到。

And compared to The US, The USA is far fewer at only about a 170, fewer than a 170 annually.

有意思的是，据预测，采矿劳动力中受过教育的那部分，可能有一半会在未来三年内退休。

And one of the interesting things here is that it's projected that perhaps half of the mining workforce, the educated mining workforce is going to be retiring within the next three years.

所以劳动力似乎是个问题。

So labor seems to be an issue.

特朗普政府承诺投入一亿美元用于教育。

The Trump administration committing a $100,000,000 to education.

就想听听你们对此有什么看法。

Just wanna get y'all's reactions here to that.

那我们换个角色吧。

So we're gonna switch roles.

我觉得我在这部分要当那个爱抱怨的人了。

I feel like I'm gonna be the curmudgeon in this section.

问题不只是学费。

The problem here isn't just tuition.

而是矿业是个周期性很强的行业。

It's that mining is a highly cyclical industry.

工作地点可能在美国没人住的偏远地区。

Jobs can be in very remote areas where nobody in The US lives.

而且有一段时间，新毕业生根本找不到这个行业的工作。

And there have been stretches where it was impossible for new grads to find a job in the industry.

比如，我觉得2015到2020年那段时间，对矿业来说真的很难。

Like, I wanna say the whole 2015 to 2020 era was really difficult for the mining industry.

这就是为什么2015年大约有1500人就读采矿工程专业，而现在不到600人。

This is why there were about 1,500 people enrolled in mining engineering programs in 2015, and now there are fewer than 600.

并不是说大家对高薪工作的兴趣消失了。

It's not that interest in high paying jobs has evaporated.

而是这个行业让大家看到，这份工作并没有你想象的那么稳定。

It's the industry showed people that this is not as stable as you might think.

而且，你说一半的采矿工程师将在三年内退休，但至少需要四年才能培养出新人。

Plus, when you say that half of mining engineers are set to retire within three years, it takes four years at least.

咱们现实点吧。

Let's be realistic.

现在大多数人读完大学差不多要五年。

Most people take closer to five to get through college these days.

拿到采矿学位需要四年。

It takes four years to get a mining degree.

所以我觉得，时间上真的不像特朗普政府说的那样能衔接得上。

So I'm not sure the timing really works as much as the Trump administration wants to say here.

所以我能理解从国家安全角度出发的考量。

So I understand the national security angle.

这和之前芯片行业的情况差不多，但我不确定这能否吸引到成千上万的新学生。

Same thing we've gone through with the chipmakers, but I'm not sure this will do enough to attract thousands of new students.

泰勒，给我们一点乐观的看法吧。

Tyler, bring us over some optimism here.

嗯，我是说，有人读了八年大学，那五年确实算挺短的时间了。

Well, I mean, someone who spent eight years in college, that five years is a is a nice term.

关于远程办公这一点，我也想说两句。

All I'll say is on the remote stuff too, though.

过去七年因为妻子的工作原因，我一直住在美国以外，说实话，远程办公确实有不少好处。

I've spent the last seven years outside The United States for my wife's work, and I'll say that working remote places certainly has its perks.

不是的。

No.

我可不是那种不顾家的人，相反，我非常感激她为此做出的牺牲。

I can't be said that I'm not a wife guy because I'm definitely thanking her for doing that.

另外，我这儿有点半开玩笑，但AI导致工作消失的威胁，确实让这种工作更有说服力。

Also, I'm being a little tongue in cheek here, but the threat of AI jobs apocalypse certainly helps making the case for this kind of work.

对吧？

Right?

比如，当个可能被AI抢走饭碗的专业人士，或者干脆去阿拉斯加干一阵子。

Like, be a professional that might get your job eaten by AI, or I don't know, go work in Alaska for a little while.

我们看看这会不会真的影响美国的就业和矿业活动。

We'll see if this has a tangible impact on employment and mining activity in The United States.

我有点怀疑。

I'm a little dubious.

矿业就像AI一样，没人想住在数据中心或钨矿旁边。

Mining is like the AI in the sense that no one wants to live next to a data center or a tungsten mine.

让我举个例子。

Let me give one example.

我在新罕布什尔州长大，那里紧挨着缅因州。

I grew up in New Hampshire, neighboring state of Maine.

缅因州拥有北美最大的锂矿储量之一，但州法律让实际开采变得几乎不可能。

Maine has one of the largest lithium deposits in North America, but state laws make it effectively impossible to build a mine to actually extract it.

这种情况会不会改变，我们还不知道。

Whether that changes, we don't know.

也许会变，但我有点怀疑，因为采矿也面临很多邻避效应的问题。

It could, but I kinda have my doubts because there's a lot of NIMBY that's involved with mining as well.

要想实现美国采矿业的重振，需要做好很多事情，但目前看到的这些协议似乎并没有朝着这个方向努力。

There is a lot of things that need to happen for an American mining Renaissance that doesn't seem to be in what this these sort of, like, deals that we've been seeing happening.

光靠钱和几个新工程师可不够。

It's gonna take a lot more than just money and some new engineers.

这个话题平时我可能不会在播客里特意提，但今天正好有 Tyler 代班。

This isn't a topic I don't think I would normally highlight here for the podcast, but we did have Tyler subbing in today.

而 Tyler 呢，当然算是我们这儿搞采矿方面的专家。

And Tyler, of course, is kind of our resident expert when it comes to mining.

我觉得这点挺重要的，因为我想很多人其实并不太了解采矿这门生意，也不懂它背后的经济逻辑。

And I think that's important because I don't think many of us really understand the business of mining, the economics of mining.

我觉得我们很多人，包括我自己，一看到美国政府投入了30亿美元，就觉得这对矿业股肯定是利好。

I think a lot of us, such as myself, just see a $3,000,000,000 investment from the US government and say that must be bullish for the mining stocks.

但泰勒，我想请你稍微给我们泼点冷水。

But Tyler, I want you to just kind of temper us a little bit.

跟我们讲讲，我们到底该怎么想才合适。

Explain to us what we should be thinking.

没问题。

Sure.

所以，我要再次戴上我那副挑剔的面具。大家看，这次宣布的内容里有一笔30亿美元的投资，其中一部分用于教育，另一部分用于其他方面。

So I'm gonna, again, put on my cranky pants and look, part of the announcement that we saw that was this $3,000,000,000 investment from the government, some to education, some to stuff.

其中有14亿美元是拨给一家初创公司的，但这家公司其实并不从事采矿业务。

$1,400,000,000 of it is going to a startup that actually isn't in mining.

在那30亿美元的总额中，有14亿美元是美国能源部提供的一笔贷款，对象是一家生产锂离子电池的初创企业。

It was a $3,000,000,000 of that, $1,400,000,000 is a Department of Energy loan for a a startup lithium ion battery company.

这家公司目前还没有公开披露信息，他们主要做的是电池的硅负极材料。

It's not public, and it makes silicon anodes for batteries.

如果你非常仔细地看，也许能勉强找到增加采矿的理由，但那是针对石英和硅石的，这跟我们说的稀土矿物和那些极难开采的东西不太一样。

Now if you squint really hard, you might be able to make the case for increased mining, but that's for quartz and silica, which isn't exactly what we're talking about here with, like, rare earth minerals and, like, these super hard to extract things.

硅石和石英相对容易开采。

Silica and quartz are relatively easy.

我要提醒一句。

My word of caution.

我曾在energyandmaterialsforfool.com的编辑部门待过一段时间。

I sat on the editor desk of energyandmaterialsforfool.com for a while.

我敢保证，这件事之后我们肯定会看到一堆矿业公司带着希望和祈祷上市。

The one thing I guarantee we will see from this is a bunch of hopes and prayers mining companies go public.

他们会声称拥有某种矿物的最大储量，他们的投资者演示文稿里会塞满预计的材料需求和成本曲线，以及所有能让投资者兴奋的东西，但关于他们作为企业会做什么以及盈利能力，却几乎没有实质内容。

They will claim to have the largest reserve of x y z mineral, and their investor decks will be stuffed with projected material demand and cost curves and all the stuff to get investors excited, but there won't be little in terms of what they will do as a business and profitability.

大多数情况下，这些公司就像海妖的歌声，而找到一家真正能产生收入和利润的公司的概率，跟中彩票差不多，说实话，这些公司的回报还不如彩票。

More often than not, they are siren songs, and the chances of finding that one that actually becomes a revenue generating, profit generating entity is the same odds as a lottery ticket, and honestly, the returns on those aren't as good as lottery tickets.

我觉得，说实话，最好还是把自己绑在桅杆上，尽量驶过这片海域。

I think, honestly, better to just strap yourself to the mast and just sail past as best as you can.

如果它最终真的能成为一家有竞争力的矿业公司，那它肯定会遇到矿业周期的低谷，因为这是个周期性行业，也许到那时候才值得投资。

If it does end up making it as a viable mining company, it will hit some lull in the mining cycle because it's a cyclical industry, and maybe then it'll be a worthwhile investment.

但是投资一堆初创矿业公司，那些只是靠希望和祈祷撑着的，我觉得你有更好的花钱方式。

But investing in a bunch of startup mining companies that are just, you know, on hopes and prayers, I think you have better ways to spend the money.

好吧，我一定会接受一个在这方面花了很多时间思考的人的建议，而我自己并没有。

Well, I will definitely take advice from somebody who has spent a lot of time thinking about this, whereas I have not.

休息之后，英特尔正在筹集一些资金。

Coming up after the break, Intel is raising some cash.

你正在收听的是Motley Fool的Hidden Gems投资节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

工作中最有效率的人并不是比别人更努力。

The most effective people at work aren't working harder than everyone else.

他们是在更好的系统里更聪明地工作。

They're working smarter inside better systems.

来自Grammarly开发者的Superhuman GO是一款AI聊天工具，它能在你已经在使用的每个工具中运行，随时待命，并且已经了解你正在做什么。

Superhuman GO from the makers of Grammarly is the AI chat that works inside every tool you already use, always ready and already aware of what you're working on.

它就像一个队友，唯一的任务就是帮你把工作做得更好。

It's a teammate whose only job is to help you be better at yours.

有了GOOG的协助，你可以尽情展现你的专长。

With GOOG working with you, you can show off what you do best.

去superhuman.com看看Superhuman GOO能做什么吧。

See what Superhuman GOO can do at superhuman.com.

网址是superhuman.com。

That's superhuman.com.

欢迎回到Motley Fool隐藏宝石投资节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我们想让你也参与到对话中来。

We do wanna make you a part of the conversation.

如果你有想请教我们分析师或嘉宾的股票或投资话题，欢迎随时发邮件到podcast@fool.com。

So if you have a stock or an investing topic that you would like to ask any of our analysts and panel members on any single episode of this show, feel free to email us at podcast@fool.com.

请尽量让问题简短一些，这样我们才能在节目中读出来，保持愚人风格。

We ask that you keep your questions somewhat short so we can read them on air, keep them foolish.

记住，我们不能给个性化的投资建议，只能给更一般的建议。

Remember, we can't give personalized investing advice, more general.

如果你想提问，把问题发邮件到podcast@fool.com，podcast@fool.com。

But if you want to bring in a question, email that to us at podcast@fool.com, podcast@fool.com.

其实今天来信比较少，所以我们就跳过那个环节，直接进入第三个话题。

And actually, mailbag was a little thin today, so we're skipping over that going with a third topic here.

今天我们看到英特尔宣布要筹集一些现金。

We saw today that Intel announcing it is going to be raising some cash.

消息一出，今天股价有点下跌，不过它会出售一部分股权来筹集150亿美元。

The stock is down a little bit today on this news, but it is going to be selling some equity to raise $15,000,000,000.

公告里的行话说的是资本支出和一般营运资金。

The jargon in the announcement says, CapEx, general working capital.

但公告里有个“为什么现在”的部分，英特尔说，在包括物理AI在内的新兴领域取得了进展。

But there is a why now section in which Intel said, progress in emerging areas, including physical AI.

所以这大概就是类似于机器人之类的东西，在现实世界中运用AI。

So this would be kind of like robots or something that is using AI in the physical world.

物理AI专用的芯片，也就是他们自己的定制产品，还有先进封装和外部晶圆，这些都是英特尔的重要增长机会。

Physical AI purpose built silicone, so their own custom stuff, advanced packaging, and external wafers represent significant growth opportunities for Intel.

马特，你觉得英特尔这次筹集现金的动作怎么样？

Matt, is this a move that you like from Intel raising cash?

简单来说，我非常看好这个举措。一般来说，当股票处于我所谓的昂贵价位时，我是支持大多数公司发行股票的。

My short answer is that I am a big fan of this move, and I'm generally a fan of issuing equity for most companies when a stock is, what I would call expensive.

纵观历史，特斯拉在这方面做得比其他公司都要好。

Throughout its history, Tesla has done this arguably better than anyone.

我多次说过，他们的估值是他们最大的资产之一，能够在不大幅稀释股权的情况下筹集大量资金。

I've said many times that their valuation is one of their biggest assets, the ability to raise a lot of capital without a lot of dilution.

有些公司真的挺过了上一个熊市，就是因为它们在2021年股票泡沫时筹集了资金。

There are some companies that literally survived the last bear market, specifically because they raised capital when their stocks got bubbly in 2021.

比如我关注的一家公司柠檬水保险公司（Lemonade）。

Think of Lemonade as one company that I follow.

他们在股价接近峰值时做了非常聪明的融资，这也是为什么现在他们的资产负债表上有十亿美元的原因。

They did a really smart capital raise right around the peak, and it's why they have a billion dollars on their balance sheet today.

具体到英特尔，这次150亿美元的融资听起来是笔巨款，确实也是。

In Intel's case specifically, that $15,000,000,000 raise sounds like a lot of money, and it is.

我当然也想要150亿美元，但这在公司当前市值下只相当于不到3%的稀释，而且还能避免他们为了抓住这些机会而背上更多债务。

I would love to have $15,000,000,000, but it represents less than three percent dilution at the current market value of the company, and it prevents them from taking on additional debt to capture some of those opportunities.

说到这些机会，你提到他们特别提到了几个领域的进展，尤其是外部晶圆代工，我觉得这是最大的亮点。

And speaking of those opportunities, you mentioned they specifically cited progress in several areas, especially in my mind, external wafers is the biggest one there.

这意味着第三方代工业务的发展速度比他们自己预想的还要快，而这一直是投资逻辑的核心部分。

That implies that the third party foundry business is coming along quicker than even they thought, and that's been a major part of the investment thesis.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，英特尔过去一年的营收增长并不足以支撑它五倍的股价。

I mean, Intel's growth over the past year in terms of revenue doesn't justify its five x stock price.

真正需要资金的是那个第三方代工业务，看起来它正在加速发展。

It's that third party foundry business, and that's really what seems to be ramping up here that they need money for.

这有点像看CFO在高得离谱的估值时回购股票的反向操作。

It's kind of the inverse art situation of watching a CFO buy back shares at ridiculously high valuations.

这种行为真让人想抄起家伙去讨伐他们。

It's behavior like that makes me wanna gather up a posse with torches and pitchforts.

你看，

Look.

如果你非要稀释股东权益——这从来都不是什么好事——那至少也该在实力强劲的时候做，而不是等到缺钱缺到没办法了才这么做。

If you're going to dilute shareholders, which is never really, like, objectively a good thing, but if you're gonna do it, might as well do it from a position of strength, then wait until you're desperate for cash.

英特尔的股价在过去一年里已经涨了395%。

Intel's stock up is up 395% in the past year.

它把今年的资本支出计划提高到了200亿美元。

It's raised its CapEx plan to $20,000,000,000 for this year alone.

对于2027年，他们表示这个数字会显著更高。

And for 2027, they're saying it's gonna be significantly higher.

这是几天前在电话会议上刚提到的。

This was just on its conference call a couple days ago.

这远远超过了它目前的运营现金流收入。

That is way more than what it's bringing in operating cash right now.

所以趁现在做比等着强，万一市场风向变了，到时候为了达到同样的效果还得再发更多股票。

So better to do it now than wait and potentially have the market turn on you and have to issue more shares for the same effect.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，英特尔的估值肯定也是其中的一个因素。

I mean, Intel's valuation certainly plays a part here.

我查了一下它过去十年的市销率平均值，发现它在过去十年里的平均交易价格大约是销售额的三倍。

I was looking at the ten year average for its price to sales valuation, and it's traded at an average of three times its sales over the last ten years.

现在它的市销率是8倍，这比长期平均水平高出一倍多，而且这还是已经跌过一波之后的结果。

Right now, at eight times its sales, and so that's more than double what its long term average is, and that's after it's already come down some.

所以估值肯定比我们平时见的要高，它确实是在利用这些较高的股价水平增发股票，来为计划中的资本支出筹集资金。

So definitely a higher valuation than what we're used to, definitely selling some equity at those higher levels to fund its capital expenditures that it has planned.

不过我看到这个数据时想到一个挺有意思的点：标普500指数的股息率，据一些报道，目前正触及1.04%的历史新低。

But one of the interesting things here that I thought of when I saw this was that actually the S and P 500, the dividend yield for it right now, according to some reports, hitting an all time low of 1.04%.

所以股息率低，通常就意味着股价高，或者说股票的估值偏高。

And so in dividend yield, if it's low, that's kind of indicating a high stock price or a high valuation for the stock price.

虽然不完全是这样，但确实有这种迹象。

It not perfectly that way, but it does suggest that.

所以我在想，标普500这里有一个信号表明，是的，我们市场估值确实很高。

And so I'm wondering if these S and P 500, there is one indication here saying, yeah, we are actually very highly valued as a market.

你觉得我们会不会看到更多稀释，不只是英特尔，其他公司也会这样，如果现在市场整体很热的话？

Do you think that we're gonna see some more dilution, not just from Intel, but from other companies if it's generally a very hot market right now?

我觉得我们已经看到了。

I mean, I would argue that we've already seen that.

比如，Alphabet最近筹集了450亿美元的股权。

I mean, Alphabet recently raised $45,000,000,000 in equity.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦拿了其中100亿。

Berkshire Hathaway took 10,000,000,000 of that.

总体来看，2026年上半年美国股权融资比去年同期增长了67%。

Overall, US equity raises were 67% higher in the first half of twenty twenty six than the same period last year.

这还不包括由SpaceX领衔的创纪录的IPO市场，还有其他公司呢。

And that doesn't even include the record breaking IPO market that we've seen led by SpaceX, but there have been others.

更直接地回答你的问题，是的，我预计还会有更多，但不仅仅是因为估值机会。

To answer your question a little more directly, yes, I expect more, but not just because of opportunistic valuations.

这也是一个基于需求的融资时期。

It's also a need based capital raising time.

人工智能基础设施的快速建设，使得许多公司需要筹集数十亿美元的资金。

The rapid build out of that AI infrastructure, it's created a need for many companies to raise billions and billions of dollars.

有些会以债务的形式筹集，我们已经看到一些大型科技公司这样做了。

Some will be raised in the form of debt, which we've seen with some of the big tech companies already.

但我确实预见到会有很多股权融资。

But I I do foresee a lot of equity raises.

可转换债券在这种时期往往会变得非常受欢迎，我们已经看到很多这样的例子。

Convertible bond offerings tend to become really popular in times like these, and we've already seen a bunch of those.

而且我预计今年下半年会有很多这类情况。

And I see a lot of this kind of thing in the second half of the year.

对我来说，没有什么比可转换债券发行更糟糕的了。

Nothing sounds worse to me than convertible bond offering.

这最后往往对谁都没好处。

That never ends up, working out well for anybody.

你看，

Look.

就像你说的，不只是Alphabet，也不只是股权融资。

Like you said, it's not just Alphabet, and it's not just equity.

我们现在看到的是债务融资。

We're seeing debt.

我们看到的是股权融资。

We're seeing equity.

我们还看到大量表外融资，比如像英伟达和贝恩开始做的那些租赁担保之类的事情。

We're bunch seeing a bunch of off balance sheet financing, a lot of like these, you know, we guarantee the lease sort of things that NVIDIA and Ben is starting to do.

如果公司坚持目前的支出计划，很难找到一条路径让他们在未来几年内不必反复去金融市场融资。

It's hard to see a path where companies don't have to go to the financial market repeatedly over the next several years if they stick to their current spending plans.

大家都在谈论越来越多、越来越多的情况。

Everyone's talking about more and more and more and more and more.

他们目前的现金流支撑不了这些，而且很难想象即使未来经营现金流增长，他们能跟上。

Their current cash flows aren't supporting it, and it's hard to see how they're going to even with future growth in operating cash flow.

根据他们所说的，他们的支出计划几乎肯定会超过现金流。

Their spending plans are almost inevitably going to outpace it based on what they're saying.

我觉得唯一可能改变这种情况的，就是市场以某种方式认输。

I think the only reason that that would change is if the market cries uncle in some way or other.

我给你举个例子。

I give you an example.

甲骨文的信用评级刚刚被下调，降到了投资级信用评级中的最低档。

Oracle's credit rating was just downgraded from the lowest investment credit grade rating you can get.

那么如果它最终真的被降级到垃圾级，它的支出计划会改变吗？

Now does its spending plans change if it does finally get downgraded to junk status?

很可能。

Probably.

因为那时候我们就会看到资本成本大幅上升，而到那时你就得三思了，因为突然间，那些理论上的投资回报率真的得开始变得更合理了。

Because that's when we start to look at cost of capital getting much, much higher, and and that's where you have to start thinking twice because then all of a sudden, these theoretical ROIs really have to start making more sense.

所以只要现在这个趋势继续下去，只要估值还高，大家对这一切都乐呵呵的，那这种情况还会持续一阵子。

So as long as we see the current trajectory, as long as valuations are high and everyone's hunky dory about all this, yeah, we're gonna see it for a while.

但如果出现某种像信用降级这样的变化事件，那就会让某些人坐不住了，那时我们就会看到他们的支出计划发生改变。

But if you see some sort of, like, altering event, like a credit downgrade or something like that, that is going to make somebody blink, and that's when we're gonna see an alteration in its spending plans.

好，我们肯定会盯着谁会先坐不住，一旦有人绷不住了，我们会带到播客上来讨论。

Well, we're definitely gonna keep an eye on somebody blinking, and when they do, we'll bring that to this podcast.

今天的时间就到这里了。

That's all the time that we have for today.

老规矩，节目中的嘉宾可能持有他们谈到的股票，而Motley Fool也可能有正式的建议，支持或反对某些股票。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以不要仅凭听到的内容就买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容都遵循Motley Fool的编辑标准，并且未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告是赞助内容，仅用于提供信息。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

要查看完整的广告披露，请查看我们的节目笔记。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢我们的制作人Kristi Waterworth，还有Motley Fool团队的其他成员。

Thanks to our producer, Kristi Waterworth, and the rest of the Motley Fool team.

我和Matt、Tyler都要感谢大家今天收听我们的节目，我们下次再见。

For Matt, Tyler, and myself, thank you so much for listening to our show today, and we will see you again next time.