太空产业 looming 的约束

太空股票遭遇了意外变数。

Space stocks get thrown a curveball.

Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资现在开始。

Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.

欢迎收听 Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是主持人泰勒·克劳。

I'm your host, Tyler Crowe.

今天和我一起的是长期撰稿人马特·弗兰克尔和卢·怀特曼。

And today, I'm joined by long time Fool contributors, Matt Frankel and Lou Whiteman.

各位，今天我们要聊聊太空股票。

Guys, we're gonna get into space stocks today.

我们会讨论可能的分红削减，还会看看听众来信。

We're gonna talk about potential dividend cuts as well as go into the mailbag.

但正如我所说，先从太空开始吧。

But as I said, starting to go top, let's get into space here.

最近，太空股一直是投资者关注的焦点。

Space stocks have been front and center for investors as of late.

尤其是在五月份SpaceX进行首次公开募股之后，它吸引了大量的关注。

It's gathered a ton of attention, especially after the, SpaceX IPO back in May.

但我觉得，对太空的热情其实早就开始了，只是程度没那么高。

But I I would say the enthusiasm for space started far before that, just in to a lesser degree.

卢，我要借用你常说的一句话：太空这事儿，难。

Now, Lou, I'm gonna steal one of your go to lines here, but space is hard.

虽然前景很光明，但这些事情什么时候能实现，时不时会让人打个问号。

And while there's a lot of promise here, the timeline when those things may materialize can come into question from time to time.

最近就有一个消息把这个问题摆到了台面上——虽然不能说震惊，但确实挺意外的：SpaceX计划在2028年退役猎鹰九号火箭。

So and that was really laid bare recently when there was somewhat I wouldn't say shocking, but surprising announcement that SpaceX actually plans to retire its Falcon nine rocket in 2028.

可以说，猎鹰九号一直是太空发射行业的主力军。

This has been the workhorse, I you could say, of the space launch industry.

卢，各位，行业真的准备好2028年失去这个主力火箭了吗？

Lou, guys, is the industry really ready to lose this vehicle in 2028?

我知道有很多新东西在推进，但我们还没看到太多实际进展。

Like, I know there's a lot of stuff coming, but we haven't really seen a lot of progress yet.

嗯，我觉得这个决定有个很大的前提，

Well, there's, I think, a

那就是SpaceX内部的继任者——星舰——已经准备好接手了。

big caveat on that decision because that is assuming that SpaceX's internal successor, the Starship, is ready to to take over.

如果还没准备好，他们完全没理由不继续用猎鹰九号。

If it's not, there's no reason why they can't continue it.

但在SpaceX看来，星舰是个大得多的飞行器，能把更多东西送上轨道。

But to SpaceX eyes, the Starship is a much larger vehicle, so it's capable of bringing a lot more into orbit.

所以每吨的发射成本就降下来了。

So your per ton launch price goes down.

这就好比，30个人坐一辆大巴比30个人各开一辆车更高效。

So it's just like, it's more efficient to have 30 people on a bus versus 30 people driving a car.

所以我觉得这就是他们的计划。

So I think that that is the plan.

如果真能实现，那就意味着星舰要按计划来了。

And if it happens, it'll mean that Starship is going to script.

如果星舰出了什么问题，或者还没准备好正式亮相，我觉得猎鹰9号不会按计划退役。

If it if Starship something goes wrong or it's not ready for for prime time, I don't think you'll see the Falcon nine retired as planned.

所以我觉得至少还有一些回旋余地，而且这更多是好事而不是坏事，至少在他们看来是这样。但对那些现在就想预订2028年发射的人来说，这可是个大问题，因为你等于是在为一个未知数下注。

So I do think there there's at least some wiggle there, and it's kind of upside, not downside, at least in their head, but it is a huge thing for people trying to book now looking to 2028 because you're kind of booking into an unknown.

马特，这件事还有个有意思的地方，我们在讨论停用一款火箭，而它的继任者，比如我们之前提到的新格伦，刚出了事故，基本上发射台都炸了。

Matt, one of the things that's interesting about this too is we're talking about shuttering a vehicle when some of the the successors of it, we've talked about, like, New Glenn, for example, they had their accident, where the basically, the launch pad blew up.

中子火箭的研发进度也一直比较慢。

Neutron rocket has been slower to develop.

我有点好奇，说2028年要停用，是不是只是对市场的一种故作姿态？

Part of me wonders is, like, is is saying that it's gonna shut down in 2028 just kind of a feigned response to the market?

我觉得吧，这事儿得看情况，还是有一些前提条件的。

I mean, it just see, it there are it there's some caveats.

比如，埃隆·马斯克为这事定了一些目标。

Like, you know, Elon Musk set some targets for that to happen.

我是说，就像卢说的，那得假设星舰能顺利运行并接管任务，而且假设他们真的不需要猎鹰九号。

I mean, like like Lou said, that assumes that the Starship is gonna be up and running and and taking over, and it assumes that they don't need it really.

如果他们需要，它就在那里。

If they need it, it's there.

它可以继续服役。

It could continue.

但问题是，客户没法预订太空飞行，而且这来得真不是时候。

But, I mean, customers can't book the, you know, space flights, and it comes at really a terrible time.

就像你说的，新格伦火箭从五月起就一直停飞。

Like you said, the the New Glenn rocket, it's been down since May.

火神火箭二月份也被停飞了。

Vulcan was grounded in February.

而且这正好赶上发射需求因太空发展局而急剧升温的时候。

And and it comes at a time when, you know, you know, launch demand is really heating up from a space development agency.

他们的一位项目经理最近说，到2030年计划发射数千颗卫星，但根本没有足够的火箭来发射它们。

One of their program managers said recently that thousands of satellites are scheduled to launch by 2030, and there simply aren't enough vehicles to launch them.

而且这还是基于目前市场上的情况。

And that's given what exists in the market now.

所以现在不是移除主要玩家的好时机。

So it's not a great time to remove one of the the main you know, the main player.

作为投资者，我们立刻会想，谁会受益？

Immediately as an investor, we think like how does who benefits?

谁会受损？

Who loses out here?

就像我说的，显而易见的候选者是上市公司，因为它们在投资者心中非常突出。

Like I said, we have the obvious candidates are the publicly traded companies because they very much in the forefront of, like, investors', mind.

比如Rocket Lab的Neutron火箭，SpaceX，可能程度稍低的Voyager和Firefly，还有一些最近的IPO。

You know, Rocket Lab with its neutron rocket, SpaceX, probably to a lesser degree, Voyager and Firefly, some recent IPOs as well.

但那些只是解决方案的一部分。

But are those are only solutions here.

还有谁可能受益，而人们可能没考虑到，因为它们不一定是上市公司？

Like, who else could be benefiting that maybe people aren't thinking about because they're not necessarily public?

嗯，我觉得这比那还要复杂，因为即使是Neutron和Firefly正在研发的东西，也无法替代猎鹰九号。

Well, I think it's more even complicated than that because even the Neutron and what Firefly are what they're working on, that's not going to replace the Falcon nine.

那些火箭的规模更小。

Those are coming in smaller.

所以确实存在一个空缺，说实话，没有多少人在努力填补这个空缺，因为成本太高，太复杂了。

So there is a real void there that that there aren't a lot of people trying to fill, to be honest, because it's the the expenses, the complexity of it.

所以有很多种可能的发展方向。

So there's a bunch of ways this can go.

如果SpaceX成功，星舰能够投入使用，成为大规模卫星部署的工具，那么整个产业链上下都会出现竞争。

If SpaceX is right and Starship can come online and it can just be this massive distributor of satellites, there's going to be competition all the way up and down the food chain.

但如果星舰继续延期，或者NASA等机构的需求发生变化，那么就必须发生两种情况之一。

But if Starship continues to be delayed or if the kind of demands for from NASA and other things, there are going one of two things has to happen.

要么这些中型火箭必须发挥到极致，要么那些想要发射的公司必须重新考虑他们的业务，重新设计以减轻重量。

Either these medium rockets are gonna have to be maxed out or the companies that want to want Lyft are gonna have to rethink their businesses, rethink their designs for less weight.

我认为短期内赢家会是像Rocket Lab这样的公司，它们拥有全部这些能力，希望很快能投入使用，还有Firefly。

I think the winners in the near term are companies like Rocket Lab that just have all this capacity and hopefully be coming online and Firefly.

但说实话，我觉得真正的赢家会是那些得到国防部或五角大楼支持的公司，因为我敢肯定，军事方面的事情绝不会被拖延。

But I I I think, to be honest, I I think the real winners are gonna be the companies that have the DOD blessing or the the Pentagon blessing because the one thing I'm sure of is is that nothing will be delayed on the military side.

我觉得，对于任何我关注的公司来说，如果他们的计划中包括预订商业发射能力来发射卫星或把东西送入太空，那他们很可能会输，或者至少会被推迟。

I think for any company that I'm looking at that part of their plan is to book capacity to launch satellites or launch something into space on the commercial side, they are a likely loser or at least delayed.

由于这个瓶颈，这需要的时间会比他们预期的要长。

It's gonna take longer than they hope just based on on this bottleneck.

那他们就会输。

Lose right then.

我觉得火箭实验室是这里自然的赢家。

I think Rocket Lab is the natural winner here.

现在股价已经反映了这一点，但中子号到达的时机，说实话，正好能抓住机会，不仅是因为猎鹰九号不再接受2028年后的订单，还因为整体发射需求的积压正在增长。

Now the stock is priced for that, but the neutron is arriving at honestly, the exact right time to take advantage, not just of the the Falcon nine, not taking orders past 2028, but just to take advantage of the growing backlog of just demand for launches in general.

其他不太被讨论的赢家可能是零部件供应商。

Other under discussed, you know, winners could be the component suppliers.

有一家叫KRMN的公司。

There's one called KRMN.

他们预计今年营收增长57%。

They're guiding for 57% revenue growth this year.

像这样的公司，大多数时候市盈率比纯太空股如Rocket Lab要低得多。

And companies like this, for the most part, trade at much lower multiples than the pure pure play space stocks like like Rocket Lab do.

所以有很多潜在的赢家，我完全同意Lou说的关于那些有……支持的公司。

So there are a lot of potential winners, and and I totally agree with what Lou said about the the companies that are backed by

国防部。

the DOD.

不过关于这一点，我还有一点要说。

Just one thing on that though too.

组件供应商的问题是，虽然他们在发射方面有机会，但如果这导致商业客户推迟进入太空，他们就不会购买和支付卫星组件的费用。

The problem with the component supplier is is that while they have opportunities on the launch side, if this causes delays for the commercial customers going up into space, they aren't going to buy and pay for the components going into their satellites.

所以我觉得这算是一种反驳。

So I think it's it's it's a kind of pushback.

我认为这里的赢家还有工程师，因为即使中子火箭成功了，它也无法与猎鹰9号竞争。

I think the winner too here is the engineers because even if the neutron works, it doesn't compete with the Falcon nine.

其实，SpaceX 退役的猎鹰九号比中子号还要大。

It's just it it cannot SpaceX is retiring is larger than the Neutron.

有一家叫 Terran 的私人公司，正在尝试打造猎鹰九号的替代品。

There is a company, a private company, Terran, that is trying to build a Falcon nine replacement.

我们得看到它真的飞起来，但工程师们得想办法让这些设备更小、更轻，或者能在太空中自行组装。

We need to see it going up, but engineers are gonna have to figure out how to get these things smaller or to weigh less or how to they can self assemble in space.

肯定得找到变通的办法，就这么简单。

There's gonna have to be a workaround, period.

因为除非猎鹰重型或星舰能成功，否则我们就是没有那种重型运载能力。

Because we are just not gonna have that heavy capacity unless, Falcon Heavy or or Starship come through.

我其实一直在想，那个 Terran R，我觉得应该就是相对论空间公司。

I've actually been wondering a little bit, the Terran r that I believe is actually Relativity Space.

我觉得那是埃里克·施密特的私人公司，可能今年或者未来十二个月内不会上市，但我觉得它迟早会上市的，而且不会太久。

I think that's Eric Schmidt's, private, company that is expected to maybe not this year or the coming twelve months, but I think it likely will go public sometime sooner than another.

所以这家公司绝对值得关注。

So it definitely be one to watch.

你们真的聊到了太空的一些细节，我觉得很多人看太空就觉得，东西送上去越多，大家都受益。

And you guys, you really touched on some of the nuances of space here, and I think a lot of people looking at it just say, more stuff goes up, everybody benefits.

所以关于太空，确实有很多误解和不太清楚的地方。

So there's a lot of misconceptions and perhaps misunderstandings of space.

那在我们快结束这次对话的时候，你对投资太空的投资者有什么建议吗？

So as as we're kind of rounding out this conversation here, like, what would be your message to investors when it comes to investing in space?

有哪些误解，或者不太被讨论的风险和机会，是投资者应该注意的？

What are some of these misconceptions that are maybe less discussed risk or opportunities that investors should be aware of?

我想提一个风险，我之前也说过，就是很多商业计划都依赖星舰能够可靠地把东西送入轨道。

So I'd point to a risk and it's something I've kind of already said, but there is a lot there there are a lot of business plans that are resting on Starship's ability to capably and reliably get things into orbit.

而且他们还没做到，即使准备好了也还没做到。

And they're not there yet even when they're ready.

星舰本身有很多内部计划，还有NASA和国防部的计划。

There's a lot of internal plans for Starship plus NASA plus DOD plans for Starship.

我真的很担心，这既包括一些正在建造月球模块和卫星的公司，也包括像Matt提到的Carmen、Redwire这样的零部件供应商，这些公司会卖给那些公司。

We I I really worry, and this is both on the, kind of the side of some companies that are actually building lunar modules and, building satellites, but also the component suppliers like Matt mentioned, Carmen, Redwire, companies that are gonna sell to these companies.

确实存在一个真实的风险，那就是很多推动这些积压订单的商业计划会被推迟，而这将取决于星舰。

There is a real risk that most of the business plans that are driving a lot of these backlogs will be delayed, and that is going to depend on Starship.

这并不意味着这些公司就完了，但我觉得投资者确实应该调整一下预期。

That doesn't mean the companies are ruined, but it does mean that I think investors should set expectations.

我希望一切顺利，也有一种情况是计划全部实现。

I hope everything goes well, and there's a case where it all go to plan.

但我知道很多很棒的企业现在都在原地踏步，等着星舰。

But I know a lot of great businesses that are just kind of sitting in neutral right now waiting for Starship.

而且我们知道，第一，太空很难，就像你说的；第二，埃隆·马斯克喜欢设定激进的时间表，然后又不按时完成。

And what we know about, a, space is hard as you say, and b, Elon Musk likes to set aggressive deadlines and then not hit them.

确实存在一个风险，就是很多估值会随着时间被这种我认为不可避免的放缓慢慢消耗掉。

There's a real risk that a lot of these valuations will be just drained over time by this by a slowdown that I think is inevitable.

你提到埃隆·马斯克激进的时间表，这点说得很好。

You you make a good point about Elon Musk's aggressive deadlines.

特斯拉的Roadster发布会下周就要举行了，而这个发布会本来应该在2017年就举行。

The the Tesla Roadster reveal is happening next week, and it was supposed to happen in 2017.

所以，是的，这只是一个例子。

So, yeah, that that's just one example.

但我想说，除此之外，最大的风险之一是，需要进入太空的东西比火箭还多，简单来说就是我们一直在说的，那些拥有火箭的公司将拥有定价权。

But I I would say, you know, in addition to that, one of the biggest risks is that with more things that need to get into space than there are rockets, which is kind of the the simple way of saying what we've been saying, the the companies that need you know, the companies that have the rockets will have the pricing power.

所以那些商业模式是把东西运送到太空的公司，可能会成为输家。

So companies whose business model it is to get things transported into space, could be the losers here.

他们可能会看到利润率被压缩，至少在瓶颈消除之前的短期内是这样。

They could, you know, see margins kinda compressed at least in the near term until the bottleneck goes away.

这会很有趣，因为这里的难度肯定比我们接下来要讨论的话题要大得多，而接下来要讨论的是那些无聊又古板的股息股票，广告之后见。

It's gonna be a fascinating one because the the degree of difficulty here is certainly a lot harder than the topic we're gonna discuss next, and that's kind of the boring and stodgy dividend stocks coming up after the break.

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Since it's built on your real time people and business data, Rippling AI can pull metrics from Rippling and Salesforce into a meeting ready dashboard showing quota attainment, headcount plan, and monthly revenue to quota by region.

几秒钟内，你就能看到配额风险背后的具体原因，并在错过之前解决它。

In seconds, you'll see exactly what's behind your quota risk and fix it before it's missed.

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当你有关键的业务问题需要答案时，不要只是提交一个工单，然后等上几周才能拿到过时的报告。

When you have critical business questions that need answers, don't just file a ticket and wait weeks for an outdated report.

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They say leadership isn't just about where you're going.

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几周前，金宝汤公司，那个我认为最著名的汤品品牌，宣布削减股息，同时进行裁员和成本削减，试图稳固资产负债表。

A few weeks ago, Campbell's, the maker of the most, I would say, the most famous soup label, ever made, announced a dividend cut alongside with layoffs and took cost cuts, you know, try to shore up the balance sheet.

基本上，这就是如今公司削减股息的原因。

Basically, reason anyone actually cuts a dividend these days.

这距离金宝汤公司上次削减股息，正好过去了二十五年，按季度算。

It was basically twenty five years to the quarter that the Campbell's company cut its dividend.

你知道，这是大家在股息支付上都想达到的一个标志。

You know, one of those markers everyone tries to hit with dividend payments.

然后我看到了一个研究报告，到目前为止这个季度，19%的股息支付公告实际上是削减，这是六年来的最高水平。

And now I did a there was a research note that came out, and so far this quarter, 19% of dividend payout announcements have actually been cuts, and it's been the highest in six years.

所以基本上我们看到的是自疫情以来的情况，高利率，很多原因可能导致这种情况。

So basically since COVID times is what we're seeing here, higher interest rates, lots of reasons as to why this may be the case.

我特别想用金宝汤公司，因为它是一个标志性的公司，用它作为切入点，因为我觉得它突显了投资者用来判断股息安全的一些信号。

I wanted to use Campbell's specifically, because it's an iconic company, and use it as a jumping off point here, because I think it highlights some signals investors use for determining dividend safety.

持续很长时间的股息连续增长记录，以及标志性品牌，并不一定是长期的好指标。

Dividend streaks that go on for a really long time, and iconic brands that aren't necessarily great indicators over the long term.

我觉得这个故事的重点是，没有哪个股息连续增长记录是安全的。

You know, I think this story here is gonna be the big takeaway is no dividend streak is safe.

作为投资者，我们经常这样做，当你看公司的时候，因为我们投资组合里都有股息股票，你看到哪些假信号或者数据点，实际上并不是找到支付股息的好公司的好信号？

And while we're you as investors, guys, and we do this all the time, like, when you're looking at companies, because we all have dividend stocks in our portfolios, what are some of the, like, those false flags or, like, those data points that you see that really aren't great signals to finding a quality company that pays a dividend?

我寻找几个信号。

There are a few flags that I look for.

一个是我用自由现金流来分析股息稳定性，不一定看每股收益。

One is I use free cash flow to analyze dividend stability, not necessarily earnings per share.

底线的盈利数字有很多不同的会计处理方式，不一定能反映公司持续支付股息的能力。

There's a lot of different accounting things that happen with the bottom line earnings number that don't necessarily reflect the company's ability to keep paying dividends.

我为了这个环节做了点研究，发现一家公司，按每股收益算，股息支付率大约是70%。

I I was just kinda doing some research for this segment, and I found one company who's but on an earnings per share basis, their dividend payout ratio was about 70%.

但按自由现金流算，大约是130%。

And as a percentage of free cash flow, it was about a 130%.

所以这是值得注意的一点。

So that's one thing to look for.

还有一些警示信号。

And there are some kind of warning signs.

比如，债务负担在增加。

You know, one is growing debt load.

还有，债务即将到期。

One is upcoming debt maturity.

如果你想的话，我们可以多聊聊这个，但这是股息连续增长记录终结的最大原因之一。

We could talk about that more if you want to, but that's one of the biggest reasons that the the dividend streaks are coming to an end.

而且，你知道，你可以看到那些有连续增长记录的董事会，比如你提到的金宝汤。

And, you know, it it's you could see, like, boards kind of that have streaks, you mentioned, Campbell's.

我关注的好多公司，有三十年、四十年股息增长记录的，现在都只是象征性地每股增加一分钱，就为了说他们还在增长。

A lot of companies that I follow that have thirty, forty year dividend raise streaks are now just making, like, penny a share dividend increases just to say that they increase them.

当你看到董事会开始这么做，就是只给名义上的股息增长，这不一定意味着要削减股息，但说明这个连续增长记录可能撑不住了。

And when you see boards start to do that, like, kinda just giving nominal dividend increases, it's not necessarily a sign that a cut's coming, but it's a sign that the the streak might be cracking.

我得说，马特说得对。

I have to say that Matt's right.

你要看的是他们有没有能力在不借债的情况下支付股息，因为很多公司，如果担心现金不够付股息，就会去借债，这其实是种短视的做法。

You wanna look for, just their ability to fund it without taking on debt because all too common companies, if they risk that they don't have enough cash to pay their dividends, they will take on debt, which is kind of very, you know, that that that that's short term thinking.

不过我想说，我觉得所有这些问题里，导致公司做出奇怪决定的一个原因，就是我几乎希望股息不要那么自动。

I wanna say though, I one of the issues I think with all of this and one of the things that causes companies to make weird decisions is I almost wish that dividends weren't as automatic as they were.

我希望公司能直接说，好了，这是我们多余的现金。

I wish a company could just say, All right, this is our excess cash.

我们打算每个季度根据情况来分配。

We're going to distribute quarter to quarter as we see it.

市场会惩罚这种做法。

The market punishes that.

而且我们确实把削减股息几乎看作是压力的信号。

And we do see dividend cuts as almost always a sign of stress.

如果管理层不必非得这样做，他们会有更大的灵活性，也可能把业务经营得更好。

Management teams would have a lot more flexibility and probably run the business better if they could just not have to.

他们就像做股票回购那样，

They just kinda do what they

当现金流入时，如果有盈余，我们就分配，而不是像马特说的那样，为了保住连续增长记录而只增加一分钱。

do with buybacks where, you know, as the cash is coming in, if we have excess, we will distribute it versus just having, like Matt says, play the game where, alright, well, we don't wanna blow our streak, so we'll just raise it by a penny.

马特，就像你刚才说的，债务到期，利率上升，我确信这是现在发生这种情况的原因之一，还有其他一些痛点，我们看到零售公司有些挣扎。

To Matt, as you were saying, like debt maturities, we have rising interest rates, I'm sure that that is playing a part here with why it's happening right now with as long as other, you know, points of pain, we've seen retail companies struggling a little bit.

所以我在开头提到了金宝汤公司。

So we I mentioned Campbell's at the top here.

你们一直在到处寻找潜在的投资机会，可能也在找一些危险信号，那你们现在在看哪些公司，会觉得，嘿，我知道他们派发股息，而且一段时间以来一直很可靠，但这看起来不像市场可能暗示的那么热。

As you guys have been scouring the world of of potential investments and maybe looking for things that are red flags, what are some of the companies you're looking at right now where you're like, hey, I know they pay dividends and they've been pretty reliable for a while, but this is not looking as hot as as, you know, the market may be suggesting that it is.

首先，我不确定金宝汤削减股息是不是错误的决定。

For for one thing, I'm I'm not sure Campbell's made the a wrong move, cutting the dividend.

他们公开的目标是削减股息来偿还债务，在现在这个很多公司不得不为2020、2021年零利率时期借的债务再融资的时候，今天再融资，现在加强资产负债表不一定是坏事。

Their their stated goal is to cut dividends to pay down debt, which at a time when you're seeing so many companies having to refinance debt that they took out during the 2020, twenty twenty one zero interest era, you know, and and having to refinance it today, it's not necessarily a bad move to shore up your balance sheet right now.

所以我不是说他们做了错误的决定。

So I'm not saying they made a bad decision.

但是，是的，还有一些其他的公司，我的意思是，Amcor就是其中之一，股票代码是AMCR。

But, yeah, there are some others that I mean, Amcor is one ticker symbol, AMCR.

他们已经连续28年提高股息了。

They've raised their dividend for twenty eight consecutive years.

这就是我说的那家，自由现金流占比133%。

This is the one that I was saying, a 133% of free cash flow.

你知道，它的收益率是5.4%。

You know, it it's a 5.4 yield.

有几个分析师已经公开表示，他们面临削减股息的风险。

Several analysts have come out and said that they're at risk of cutting.

Genuine Parts 这家公司很有意思。

Genuine Parts is one that's really interesting.

GPC 已经连续七十年增加股息了，但现在他们的股息确实超过了自由现金流。

GPC, they've increased the dividend for seventy consecutive years, but their dividends really exceed free cash flow right now.

他们的自由现金流派息率达到了134%，而两年前只有57%，其中很大一部分是债务。

It's a 134% free cash flow payout ratio compared to fifty seven percent two years ago, and and a lot of that is debt.

所以，你知道，还有其他类似的公司，但为了节省时间，我把话题交给 Lou。

So there there's a you know, there there are others like that, but for the sake of saving time, I'll pass it over to Lou.

我关注的有几家，比如 Chemours，这家化工公司，去年削减了股息。

So a couple I'd look at, Chemours, the the chemical company, they cut their dividend last year.

我觉得他们可能还得再削减一次。

I think they could have to do it again.

你在整个行业都能看到，很多公司都在削减股息。

You've seen it throughout the industry, a lot of dividend cuts.

这对他们来说环境确实不好。

This is just a bad environment for them.

其他我会关注的是那些利率较高、经营状况也不佳的，比如商业房地产投资信托，像做写字楼和写字楼抵押贷款的那些，像Granite Point、Orion Office这些公司，在我屏幕上看起来现在很脆弱。

Other ones I'd look at with higher rates, kind of higher rates and just the business conditions, commercial REITs, like the ones that do offices and office mortgages, companies like Granite Point, Orion Office, they look vulnerable right now on my screen.

我提这个可能会招来一些批评，但我之前也说过几次了。

I might catch some flack for this one, but I've mentioned it a couple times before.

我实际上关注的一个股票是UPS。

I actually buy one on my radar is actually UPS.

我提过这个，有时候会被反驳，但就像我们刚才提到的，它们的派息率都超过100%了。

I I brought it up and sometimes I I get waived off, but everything we've mentioned, you know, payout ratios, they're north of a 100%.

经营现金流都覆盖不了股息，而且利息覆盖率这些指标也都在恶化。

Cash from operations doesn't cover its dividends and, you know, interest coverage metrics are all deteriorating.

我知道很多人说，UPS会解决的，因为他们正在转型中。

I, I know that a lot of, there's a lot of people said, oh, it's, it's, you know, UPS, they'll figure it out because they're in the middle of the turnaround plan.

但在过去十二个月里，其他公司里，这个一直是我关注的潜在削减股息候选，可能比其他的更有争议一些。

But I, other companies over the twelve months, that's one that's always been on my radar as a potential dividend cut candidate that perhaps is a little more controversial than others.

广告之后，我们会进入邮件问答环节。

Coming up after the break, we're gonna hit the mailbag.

每周日，我们都会在《本周科技》节目中回顾本周的科技新闻。

Every Sunday, we cover the week's tech news on This Week in Tech.

大家好。

Hi.

我是播客网络的Leo LaPorte，邀请您和我一起，与Jacob Ward、Molly White和Harry McCracken讨论针对Meta的大诉讼的终结，以及这对我们意味着什么。

This is Leo LaPorte from the podcasting network inviting you to join me with Jacob Ward, Molly White, and Harry McCracken as we talk about the end of the big lawsuit against Meta and what it means for us.

NVIDIA花大价钱想进入AI软件领域，还有关于Hugging Face攻击的真实细节。

NVIDIA spending lots of money trying to get into the AI software game, and real details on that hugging face attack.

你听到的内容会让你震惊。

What you hear will shock you.

你可以在twit.tv以及所有播客平台上找到我们。

You'll find it at twit.tv and wherever you get your podcasts.

嘿。

Hey.

我是来自《科技新闻周刊》的Micah Sargent。

It's Micah Sargent from Tech News Weekly.

在本周的节目中，我和The Verge的Jennifer Pattison Toohey聊了聊Meta高达180亿美元的赔偿案，以及他们通过扣留部分资金来牵制TikTok和YouTube的事情。

And on this week's show, I spoke with Jennifer Pattison Toohey of The Verge about Meta having an $18,000,000,000 settlement and also sort of holding TikTok and YouTube hostage through some of that money being withheld.

这真的很疯狂。

It's pretty wild.

我们还聊了聊令人惊叹的cyberdeck热潮，以及树莓派终于开始积极投入其中；Dee Griffin Jones也加入了我们，带我们回顾了苹果的硬件发布——M5和M6芯片、新款Mac Studio、新款Mac Mini，还预告了九月份的iPhone发布会。

We also talk about the incredible cyberdeck craze and how Raspberry Pi is finally leaning in, and Dee Griffin Jones joins us to walk us through Apple's hardware announcements, the m five and m six chips, its new Mac Studio, new Mac Mini, and then gives us a preview of the upcoming iPhone event in September.

如果你想订阅《科技新闻周刊》，只要在你收听播客的地方搜索Tech News Weekly，或者访问twit.tv/tnw就可以了。

If you would like to subscribe to Tech Weekly, just search for Tech News Weekly wherever you get your podcasts or head to twit.tv/tnw.

大家好。

Hey, everyone.

快速提醒一下。

Quick reminder.

如果你想给我们提问，可以发邮件到podcasts@fool.com。

If you wanna get a question into us, you can email us at podcasts@fool.com.

是podcast，带个s的。

It's podcast with an s.

我们也在节目简介里留了邮箱，你可以去那里找到。

We also left the email in the show description so you can get it there.

永远保持愚蠢。

Always keep it foolish.

写短一点，让我能在节目里念出来，而且我们不能给个性化建议。

Keep it short enough I can read on air, and we can't give personalized advice.

抱歉。

I apologize.

这个名字我可能会念错。

I'm gonna say this name wrong.

今天的提问来自Karolus Shimkas。

Today's comes from Karolus Shimkas.

问题是：嘿，大家好。

And the question is, hey, guys.

很喜欢你们的播客。

Love your podcast.

我们聊了很多关于芯片、供应链以及AI相关的内容。

We're talking a lot about chips, supply chains, and a lot of AI related stuff.

作为一个宝藏播客，你们在AI建设领域有没有发现什么有趣的东西，特别是在欧洲？

As a hidden gem podcast, have you found anything interesting in the AI build out space, specifically in Europe?

我觉得我们可能在这里有点让人失望。

So I think we might be a little unsatisfying here.

但是，各位，在我看来，大多数欧洲公司其实也是全球领导者，所以它们不仅受益于欧洲的建设，也受益于美国的建设。

But, guys, as far as when I look at this, most of the European companies also happen to be, like, global leaders, and so they're benefiting not just from, you know, European Europe's build out, but The US as well.

没错。

Exactly.

我想到的第一个名字可能不太让人兴奋，但ASML、施耐德电气、西门子，这些都是优秀的欧洲公司，在美国和全球各地都有大量业务，涉及建设和其他方面。

I mean, the the first names come to my list and it's not very satisfying, but ASML, Schneider Electric, Siemens, all of these companies, great European companies that are doing a ton of business in The US and all over the world related yesterday, build out and other things.

但我觉得，不管是在欧洲还是在美国，当市场估值过高时，选择成熟的公司而不是追逐趋势的边缘，对我来说，用那些“无聊”的公司更合理。

But I mean, think whether I was in Europe or in The US, I think going with the established companies versus trying to play the fringe of a trend when things are overvalued, it makes sense to me to use the boring companies.

还有一些不太起眼的小公司。

There's other little companies in the weeds.

意大利的KRMN集团是不是做很多高压电缆的？

Was it KRMN Group in Italy does a lot of the high voltage cables?

那个挺受欢迎的，泰勒。

That's been a popular one, Tyler.

但我觉得还是跟着这些大公司走比较稳妥，这些大公司确实很优秀。

But I do think just kind of playing the hits here with these pick and shovel makes sense, and those big companies are really good companies.

我也同意ASML。

I'll I'll second ASML.

那是我在欧洲AI建设领域的第一选择，就像那位听众说的。

That's my number one, you know, as the the listener put it, AI build out stock in Europe.

不过要更深入一点的话，我最近在关注一家刚申请上市的公司。

But to get a little more in the weeds, one that I'm watching just recently filed to go public.

叫EnScale。

It's called EnScale.

他们基本上就是欧洲版的CoreWeave。

They're essentially Europe's version of CoreWeave.

我很喜欢关注这些新型云公司。

I love these neo cloud companies to watch.

所以，像CoreWeave，他们做的就是为AI公司提供基础设施服务。

So, like, CoreWeave, they they do kinda like infrastructure as a service for AI companies.

他们建数据中心。

They they build out data centers.

他们搭建算力，然后租给客户。

They build out the compute, and then they kinda lease it off to their customers.

所以我觉得这是个很好的模式。

So I it's a great model.

我觉得，随着算力需求上升，总有一天，那些超大规模云服务商得找更省资金的方式来获取所需的算力。

I think as, you know, compute requirements go up, at some point, the the hyperscalers are gonna need to find, you know, more capital light ways of getting the compute they need.

所以我非常看好这个业务。

So I love this business.

我完全不知道怎么给它们估值。

I have no idea how to value them.

比如EnScale，他们今年上半年的收入大概是一亿四千一百万美元。

So EnScale, for for example, their their revenue was about a $141,000,000 in the first half of this year.

同比增长了1200%。

That grew 1200% year over year.

什么样的市销率才能配得上1200%的同比增长呢？

How do what what price to sales multiple justify you know, is justified by 1200% year over year growth?

我不知道。

I don't know.

不知道你们知不知道。

I don't know if you guys do.

他们的收入是一亿四千一百万美元，预订量是五百六十四亿美元。

They have, you know, a $141,000,000 in revenue, $56,400,000,000 in bookings.

所以它们很难估值，但我认为它们会在未来AI建设中扮演重要角色。

So they're impossible to value, but I think they are gonna play a big role in the future of the the AI build out.

还有一个目前已经上市的公司叫Nebius，股票代码是NBIS，它在欧洲有很多业务。

There's another one that's currently public called Nebius that has a lot of Europe exposure, NBIS.

但Nscale确实很有意思。

But but Nscale is is a really interesting one.

它增长非常快，更像是一个纯粹的欧洲公司。

It's growing very rapidly, more of a Europe pure play.

所以这些新型云服务商对我来说非常有趣。

And so the the neo clouds are are very interesting to me.

我还想补充一点，就是目前欧洲的发展速度稍微慢一些。

And the only other comment I would give too to this is that the development rate in Europe right now is a little bit slower.

如果看看欧洲的AI领军企业，比如Mistral AI，它可以说是最接近OpenAI或Anthropic的公司。

If you look at we'll call it, Europe's AI champion, Mistral AI, they're, you know, the closest assimilate we could say to OpenAI, Anthropic.

我知道它们的业务不同，但就欧洲AI领域的领导者而言，目前我觉得应该是Mistral。

I know they're different businesses, but in terms of, like, the leader in AI in Europe, I would probably say Mistral right now.

它们的资本支出计划或义务，跟OpenAI或Anthropic相比，规模要小好几个数量级。

Their CapEx plans or, like, obligations relative to what we see at OpenAI or Anthropic is, right now, is orders of magnitude smaller.

发展速度会稍微慢一些。

Development rates are going to be a little bit slower.

这本来就是设计如此。

And it's just by design.

他们更专注于实体AI，比如机器人技术之类的，尤其是制造业相关的。

They're kind of focusing a little bit more on physical AI, so for robotics and things like that, especially manufacturing related.

我不是说慢一点不好，但增长机会确实不会那么强劲。

And I'm not saying that it's bad that it's slower, but the growth opportunities are just going to be not as robust.

对于我们提到的很多公司，比如ASML、施耐德电气，它们未来几年的增长很大程度上将依赖于美国市场。

And for a lot of these companies we mentioned, ASML, Schneider Electric, much of their growth, at least for the next couple of years, is going to be largely predicated in The US.

所以我们可能会看到欧洲的建设，但很难区分出一家只靠欧洲就能成为AI冠军的公司，相比之下，那些为全球供货的公司可能更有优势。

So we can see a build out in Europe, but it's going to be hard to separate a company that's going to succeed as a Europe only AI champion, in terms of, like, the AI build out versus, for example, a company that is supplying the world, in in this regard.

好了，今天的时间就到这里。

Well, that's all the time we have for today.

和往常一样，节目中的人可能对他们谈论的股票有兴趣，而The Motley Fool可能有正式的建议，支持或反对。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以不要光听我们说什么就买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容都遵循Motley Fool的编辑标准，未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告是赞助内容，仅供参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

要查看完整的广告披露，请查看我们的节目笔记。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢我们的制作人Dan Boyd以及Motley Fool团队的其他成员。

Thanks to our producer Dan Boyd and the rest of The Motley Fool team.

Lou、Matt和我，感谢大家的收听，我们下次再聊。

For Lou, Matt, myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.