The Rise of Prediction Markets

但这里关键的是，这些预测市场并不是水晶球。

But the important thing here is that these prediction markets are not a crystal ball.

它们也不是万能的。

They're not they're not almighty.

但已经是最接近真相的方式了。

But they're as close as it gets.

因为这种利害攸关的机制，它们是预测未来最好的方法。

They're the best way to forecast the future because of this sort of skin in the game aspect.

当涉及真金白银时，人们不会说谎。

People don't lie when their money is involved.

我是里基·穆尔维，这位是Kalshi的首席执行官兼联合创始人塔雷克·曼苏尔。

I'm Ricky Mulvey and that's Kalshi CEO and co founder Tarek Mansour.

在今天的节目中，我们将从两个角度来探讨预测市场。

On today's show, we're taking two looks at prediction markets.

一个是行业领袖的视角，另一个是记者讲述的这个故事。

One from a leader in the industry and another from a journalist telling its story.

在第一部分中，曼苏尔和我讨论了预测市场与赌博的区别，以及他的平台为何能成为事实依据。

In the first part, Mansour spoke with me about how prediction markets can differ from gambling, and his platform is a source of truth.

我先问你一个基础但很重要的问题，这关系到你们公司的核心，也帮助听众更好地理解Kalshi。

So a basic question for you, but one that I think is important to your company and for our listeners understanding Kalshi.

事件合约和赌博之间到底有什么区别？

What is the difference between an event contract and a bet?

这是个很好的问题，我们经常被问到，这也是预测市场最核心的问题之一。我通常会这样回应：每当新的金融市场想要走向主流时，这类问题总是反复出现。

Yeah, that's a great question and you know, obviously we get asked this a lot and it's the central sort of, one of the central questions around prediction markets, and you know, the way I like to answer a question usually is, in some ways, sort of to outline that this question has been consistently asked whenever it came to sort of taking new financial markets mainstream.

可能很多人不知道，当美国刚推出谷物期货时，就曾引发一场争议，甚至闹到了最高法院，问题是：这算不算赌博？

And so, very few people are not familiar with this but when Grain Futures first came to The US, there was a question, there was actually a Supreme Court decision about whether these are gambling or not.

这些是赌博，还是不是？

Are these bets or are they not?

最高法院最终的结论是：确实有很多人在这类市场中投机，而投机在某种程度上确实像赌博，两者有很多相似之处。但这些市场带来的经济价值远不止投机本身，这才是它们极其重要的原因，也让它们成为金融工具，而非单纯的赌注。

And the answer where the Supreme Court landed was like, sure there's a lot of people that are speculating on these markets, so a speculation is kind of a form of betting, it's similar in many ways, but these markets have economic utility beyond that speculative activity and that's what makes them extremely important and makes them a financial instrument rather than a bet.

更简单地说，我喜欢从另一个角度来理解：风险其实分为两类，人为风险和自然风险。

A simpler way to even think about that is, you know, and I like to think about this in that different frame which is, you know, that there are two types of risks, artificial risks and natural risks.

人为风险是你为了投机而刻意制造出来的风险。

An artificial risk is a risk that you create for the purpose of speculating on it.

比如掷骰子或者转轮盘。

So it's like rolling a dice or doing a roulette spin.

对这类事情进行投机或下注，除了赌博本身，几乎没有其他实际价值。

Speculating on that or betting on that doesn't have really any utility outside of that activity, the betting activity itself.

但像‘英国脱欧会不会发生’这种事呢？

But something like will Brexit happen or not?

这是自然风险，不管有没有人下注或投机，它都会发生，而且会对很多人产生深远影响。

That's a natural risk, that's gonna happen and impacts people in many ways beyond whether, you know, you have a bet or speculative activity on it or not.

所以，关于英国脱欧的事件合约，属于一种金融工具，这和投机掷骰子的结果完全是两回事。

And and so some like an event contract on Brexit would be something that would qualify as a financial instrument and that's a that's a really different thing from, you know, obviously speculating on a on a on a die roll.

咱们聊聊体育吧，因为你们平台现在也推出了相关产品。

Let's get into the sports because your platform now offers yeah.

现在正在播录的时候，三月疯狂锦标赛还在进行中，不过等节目发布时可能已经结束了。

March Madness still March Madness is still going on at the time of this recording, not when it's being released.

体育赛事结果的事件合约有什么经济价值？

What is the economic utility of an event contracts for the outcome of a sporting event?

我们先退一步说，Kalshi 的市场覆盖了非常广泛的主题。

Just to kind of take a step back, so we we have Kalshi as markets on, you know, a very broad range of things.

包括政治、经济、天气、新冠疫情与健康、科学，最近我们才进入体育领域。

So politics, economics, weather, COVID and health, science, and we recently entered sports.

我们进入体育市场主要是因为客户的需求非常强烈，无论是个人投资者还是机构客户，现在都在使用 Kalshi。

Our entry to sports was sort of due to massive customer demand, both retail and institutional customers are on Kalshi today.

当然，体育博彩行业已经存在很久了，有很多平台提供让你跟庄家对赌的市场。

Obviously, there is an industry, you know, kind of the the sports books and other that offer, you know, markets where you go and trade or bet against the house.

但我们的市场不一样，就像我们其他的事件预测市场一样，它本质上是一个金融市场。

Our market is different and, you know, the difference is like here, like for any of our other event conscious prediction markets, it's like a financial market.

它就像股票市场，人们买卖这些合约，无论事件是否真的发生。

It's like a stock market where people are buying and selling these shares whether the event is happening or not.

我们关注的事件类型，比如谁会赢得超级碗这类重大赛事，这些事件的经济和社会影响非常巨大，会影响到球队、周边产业，以及所在城市和社区。

The types of events we focused on, so like for example, you know, who's gonna win the Super Bowl or these title events, these are like big events that have massive economic ramifications, both economic and social ramifications to the teams, the things around the teams, the cities, the towns, localities around them, right?

你肯定也看到最近出了不少相关报告。

And you know, you've seen there's a bunch of reports that came out.

比如老鹰队那次，对整个城市、球队等等都造成了巨大的经济影响。

The Eagles one, like that has drastic economic impact on the city, on the teams, and so on and so forth.

现在有大量资金投入到这些联赛、比赛和体育项目中，这一点不难想象。

And so you can imagine a lot mean, and you see there's massive amounts of money that are being invested on these leagues and these games and sports these days.

这已经不是一个简单的游戏了，而是一个庞大的产业。

It's a massive industry that's not, you know, just a a game.

这些人可以通过参与市场来对冲风险，比如当自己支持的球队输掉比赛时，减少损失。

And so those people could basically be taking a position to increase their volatility or hedge their volatility against, you know, a bad outcome, which is, you know, their team losing.

还有一点非常重要，那就是人们真的在乎结果。

The other thing that's really important is that people care.

金融市场的其中一个功能，就像以前的粮食期货一样，就是帮助确定价格或预测未来走势。

And one of the things, one of the functions of financial markets, a bit like going back to the grain futures argument, was this notion of price basing or basically figuring out what the pricing or the forecast of something is.

那时候，农民们需要知道粮食未来的市场价格会是多少。

At the time, you know, farmers needed to know what the price, the future price of grain was going to be.

我们的市场和预测市场的妙处在于，它给出的价格本身就是对事件是否会发生的一种预测，这能帮助人们做出更明智的决定，知道该往哪里投资，而不是听那些专家各说各话。

The beauty of our markets and prediction markets, they give you a price which is a forecast of whether the event is gonna happen or not, which can enable people to make better decisions, figure out where they should invest and rely on a market based forecast rather than pundits saying different things.

我真心希望你的平台能彻底改变体育博彩市场，我相信它能做到。

I am rooting for your platform to dramatically disrupt the the sports betting market, and I think it will.

我觉得这很有说服力，尤其是在经济价值方面。

I think it's an interesting case to be made, especially for economic utility.

比如说，如果明年辛辛那提猛虎队赢了超级碗，对那个城市会有不小的经济影响，这个论点很有力量。

If, you know, let's say the Cincinnati Bengals win the Super Bowl next year, there's an economic impact on that city, and I think that argument is pretty strong.

你看看这个周末发生的事，你的平台上还有一场UFC羽量级冠军赛，亚历克斯·沃尔科诺夫斯基对战迭戈·洛佩兹。

If you look at something happening this weekend, there's a UFC featherweight title fight that's also on your platform, Alex Volkanovski versus Diego Lopez.

沃尔科诺夫斯基是澳大利亚人。

There's, Volkanovski's from from Australia.

如果他赢了，澳大利亚也会因此受益，因为冠军头衔回到了他们的国家。

So if he wins, there's an economic impact for Australia when you have the title coming back to that country.

不过，如果我们聊聊你平台的未来，咱们可以再深入一点。

When you think about the future of your platform, though, let's let's go deeper.

你觉得这种模式会推广到所有体育项目吗？

Do you see that going across all sports?

我觉得冠军赛确实有很强的经济影响，但预赛的第一场比赛呢？

Because I think that's a strong argument for for a title fight, but the first fight on the preliminary card.

未来Kalshi会涉足这类赛事吗？

Is that something that you expect to see in the future for Kalshi?

你们会提供像DraftKings和FanDuel那样广泛的体育博彩选项吗？

Do you expect to see sort of the wide range of sports betting options that one can find on DraftKings and FanDuel?

你们打算继续聚焦这些高影响力赛事吗？

Are you planning on sticking to those high impact events?

你问的这些问题，总的来说，是不是在问我，未来会不会搞成传统体育博彩平台？

The general answer to sort of what you're asking me is like, do I expect this to look like a kind of a traditional sports book?

答案是不会。

The answer is no.

它不太可能像传统体育博彩平台，原因很明显吧？

It it it probably won't look like a traditional sports book because there are key right?

有些是监管方面的因素，非常关键，另一些则涉及商业模式本身。

And and so some are regulatory and they're very critical, and others are even in the business model.

我先说商业模式吧，你也看到了，我们的市场得益于高度集中。

And I'll start with the business model, and and you've seen so our market benefits from concentration.

你需要那些备受关注的大事件，能带来经济或社会影响的，这样才能聚集大量交易量和流动性。

You need these sort of big events that a lot of people care about or have, you know, have economic or social impact towards that concentrates volume and liquidity.

交易量和流动性越大，我们的业务就越有优势。

Our business gets better and better with more volume, more liquidity.

原因在于，我们并不是跟客户对赌。

And the reason is because we don't take bets against the customers.

对吧？

Right?

我们赚钱的方式不是这样。

Like that's not how we make money.

所以我们必须依靠庞大的交易量，靠微薄的手续费来盈利。

And so for us we need large sums of volumes to make money based on our small transaction fees that we take.

你可能已经看到一些结果了，比如三月疯狂赛。我之前看过一些报告，我们的平台在上线不到两个月的时间里，就已经跻身行业前列，交易量位居前列，因为我们这个市场特别依赖交易量。

And you might have seen some the results, example, March Madness, and I was I was looking at some of the reporting, you know, our our platform within two months from of launch is actually one of the large players already in the industry in terms of volume traded through the platform, because our our markets really benefit from volume.

所以总的来说，对我们来说，集中资源比像传统体育博彩那样覆盖大量小众项目更划算。

And so this is as a rule of thumb, then it makes more sense for us to concentrate as a business rather than go very, you know, kind of have all this long tail of different things that you can get exposure to or bet on on traditional sports books.

再说一遍，我们并不是靠客户输钱来赚钱的。

Again, because we don't make money off of someone losing a bet to us.

事情根本不是这么运作的。

That's just not how it works.

从监管的角度来看，我们必须聚焦那些符合核心原则的市场——这些市场必须满足一系列基本要求。

From a regulatory perspective, we need to focus on markets that have that satisfy I mean, they have to satisfy, you know, number of core principles.

我们的监管非常严格。

We're extremely heavily regulated.

我们得遵守二十三项核心原则。

There's 23 core principles we have to abide by.

但其中有两项在这里特别相关。

But two that are very relevant here.

首先是市场必须具有经济意义，如果某个市场完全没影响力，没人关心，结果怎么样对谁都没区别，那我们就很难做，也不符合我们的模式。

So one is around, you know, the markets have to have economic relevance and so if a market is kind of totally like, doesn't have any sort of impact or people don't really care about it or or there's the way whether it goes one way or the other doesn't doesn't matter in any way shape or form to anybody, then it's kind of harder for us to do and doesn't really fit in our model.

第二点是市场不能容易被操控，这是我们设计交易平台时非常看重的一点，必须确保市场公平、有公信力。

And number two is they have to be not readily susceptible to manipulation, which is another really key thing that we think about when you think about designing a marketplace that has market integrity and fairness.

你得推出那些不容易被操纵的东西，比如某个球员随便做点什么，哪怕收益微乎其微，也容易做到，这就很危险。

You have to put up things that are not easily manipulable, where for example, like a player decides to do something, even if the economic gain is very limited, they could still do it because it's very easy to do it.

这两点让我们和传统体育博彩平台从根本上区别开来。

And so those are the two things that we think about that make us pretty different, really fundamentally different from what you would see in a traditional sports book.

那我们继续聊聊市场操控性吧。

So we'll stay on manipulability.

操控性，这个词对吗？

Manipulability, is that the word?

不管怎么说，市场被操控的可能性，因为接下来我想谈谈你们平台的透明度，这我觉得特别重要，对普通投资者来说简直是突破性的。

Anyway, the ability to manipulate a market, because I wanna get to the visibility in your market in a second, which I think is incredibly important and groundbreaking, really, what what you're doing for retail speculators.

不过说到操控，你们允许押注的一个例子就是某人会不会说某个词。

But the ability to manipulate things one of the things you can bet on is whether or not someone will say a word.

比如卡罗琳·利维特在特朗普记者会上会说什么，或者奈飞首席执行官在下一次财报电话会上会不会提到游戏，对我来说，这些才是我担心可能被操纵的地方。

So what Caroline Leavitt will say at a Trump press conference, whether or not the the CEO of Netflix will say gaming in the next earnings call, to me, that's the thing where I I wonder if that can be manipulated.

假设我是一名投资分析师，即将参加奈飞的财报电话会，而我提前押注了‘游戏’这个词会出现。

Let's say I'm an investment analyst who's gonna be on the Netflix earnings call and I place a bet on gaming.

我还没在会议开场听到任何相关发言，但我已经下了注，押的是‘游戏’。

I don't hear it in the comments up top, but I've got a bet on gaming.

这样一来，这就会直接影响我最后向首席执行官提的问题。

So that's gonna inform what question I ask the CEO at the bottom.

说到体育赛事中的操纵，我们还是用UFC的例子来说吧。

For manipulating in sports, that's one where let's say, I'm gonna go back we'll use the UFC example.

在体育比赛中操纵结果，带来的后果远不止输赢这么简单。

There's consequences beyond the bet to manipulating a fight.

如果一名选手输了比赛，他面临的可能是身体上的伤害和职业生涯的打击。

If someone loses a fight, there are physical and career consequences for that.

但作为一名投资分析师，我可能只是想：

But if I'm an investment analyst and I'm just like, you know what?

我会问关于游戏业务的这个问题。

I'm gonna ask this question about gaming.

这看起来像是预测市场之外一种几乎无害的操纵。

That seems almost like a harmless manipulation outside of the prediction market.

那你对操纵怎么看？特别是有人在记者会上会说什么话这种事？

So how are you thinking about manipulation, especially with what word will someone say in a press conference?

完全没错。

Totally.

我觉得这是个很好的问题。

And and I think that's a great question.

我觉得这里有几点值得考虑。

And I will say it's kind of like a few things to think about here.

第一，Kalshi的规则和它的结构，跟传统金融市场非常相似。

One is, so the rules around Kalshi and the way that it's structured is very similar to a traditional financial market.

简单来说，就像股票市场一样，对吧？

So very simple analogy is the stock market, right?

如果人们利用内幕信息交易，或者为了获利而操纵股价，这实际上是违法的。

If people trade based on insider information or they're trying to manipulate a stock for the purpose of gain, that is actually illegal.

纽约证券交易所、纳斯达克等机构多年来建立了一整套系统，用来识别这类行为，查明责任人，然后依法追责。

And there's a whole kind of suite of systems in the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq and so on and so forth that have been built over the years to flag this type of activity, figure out who did it and then you can prosecute these people appropriately.

Kalshi 上的情况也完全一样。

And so it's the same exact thing on Kalshi.

我们这些年其实已经开发出了一套机制，这可是个重点。

So we, you know, have developed over the years and that was a big thing.

你可能了解一些这家公司的背景。

You might know some of the history of the company.

我们花了三年时间提前取得监管批准，就是为了确保合法运营，如今我们是美国唯一合法的综合性预测市场。

Spent three years getting regulated upfront so that we can be legal, and today we're the only legal broad prediction market in The US.

我们和商品期货交易委员会合作，开发了这些系统，用来维护市场公正，防止这类行为发生。

With the CFT to develop some of these systems to figure out how do we preserve market integrity and make sure that these types of activities are not happening.

所以有几个方面需要注意。

And so a few things.

首先，我们对所有用户进行身份认证。

First, we KYC everybody.

这样我们就清楚谁在交易，对他们的一切情况都了如指掌。

So we know who's trading on the product, you know, we know everything about them.

其次，每一笔交易都会经过我们的系统，也就是我们的监控系统，用来标记任何异常模式或行为异常、统计上不合常理的情况。

Second, every trade all the trades go through our systems, our surveillance systems that flag any unusual patterns or patterns of erratic or statistically weird behaviors.

然后这些信息会转到我们的调查团队，他们每天都在不间断地每小时进行排查。

And then those go to our investigation team that runs investigations and these are happening every hour, every day.

我们有一个专门的团队负责处理这类事情。

We have a whole team that basically does these.

一旦我们标记出有人在进行此类操作，他们可能会面临从罚款到刑事起诉等各种处罚。

And if we flag someone doing something like this, like they can be prosecuted from a fine all the way to criminal prosecution.

这些情况和传统金融市场里常见的做法是一样的。

These are same as typical, you know, what you would see in traditional financial markets.

所以从宏观层面来说，我的回答是，这跟那些投资分析师通过提问或在财报电话会议上发表言论来操纵股价的行为，性质基本相同。

And so my answer to this at a high level is like, this is pretty much on par with that investment analyst trying to manipulate a stock by asking a certain question or saying something on that earnings call.

所以如果那个人这么做了，他就不能进行交易。就算他试图搞什么聪明的小动作，只要涉及的金额足够大，或者情况比较重要，我们大概率能查出来，然后他就会被起诉。

And so that person, if they did that, they wouldn't be allowed to take a trade and if, you know, even if they tried to come up with some smart scheme, you know, if if the money is sizable enough, if it's if it matters, we're probably gonna find it and they're gonna be prosecuted.

所以这算是犯罪行为。

So so that would be a crime.

不同的市场受到操纵的容易程度不同，但你知道的，财报电话会议有非常严格的规定。

Different markets have different sort of susceptibility to manipulation, but you know, earnings calls have quite stringent rules around them.

顺便说一下，这跟美联储的情况不一样。

They're not same with the Fed, by the way.

大家经常问美联储的事，比如鲍威尔在演讲里会说什么，你知道的，他的一句话就能让经济里几万亿美元的资金流动起来，对吧？

People ask about the Fed a lot, like what Powell will say in a speech, you know, that moves trillions of dollars in the economy, right?

比如，如果他表现得比预期更鹰派，或者更鸽派，这就是为什么他们的演讲稿都是提前精心准备好的，而且有很多规矩。因为如果有人提前泄露给债市或其他市场，演讲还没开始，市场就可能发生剧烈波动。我觉得这里的情况也非常相似。

Like if he says, you know, if he's slight slightly more hawkers than expected or more bear you know, that's why they kind of script you know, the the the Powell script is is very well scripted beforehand and there's rules around it because if someone leaks it before to the bond market or other, you you can, you know, kinda have drastic move before the speech And I think it's very similar here.

我很欣赏你的市场的一点，就是它能让人看清到底发生了什么。

One of the things I really appreciate your about your market is is the visibility into what's going on.

对。

So Yes.

如果你去查嘉信理财之类的平台，能看到股票的成交量。

You can see trading volume for stocks on if you go on Schwab, that kind of thing.

但在博彩方面，比如三月疯狂这种赛事，DraftKings并不会公布每场比赛的投注量，而你的平台会。

But what especially on the speculation side for something like a March Madness game, DraftKings is not listing the betting volume for for each game, whereas your platform, it does.

你的平台还能看到大家都在押注什么。

Your platform also you can see what people are betting on.

你还能看到实时的交易订单流，这在股市里也是有的。

You can see the live trade order flow, which is also something for for stock markets.

这是普通散户接触不到的信息。

That's something that is not available to retail participants.

对。

Yes.

我刚才可是问了你不少难题啊。

What's your you know, I'm I'm throwing I asked you some hard questions.

那我得给你送束花表示一下。

I'll throw you some flowers.

你对让散户也能看到这些市场有什么看法？

What's your philosophy on making these markets visible to the retail participants?

你为什么觉得有必要让平台上所有人都能看到你的所有市场？

Why why is it important to you to make all of basically, of your markets visible to everybody on your platform?

当然。

Absolutely.

你知道吗？

And and you know what?

关于你提的那些难题，我只想说，别停，继续问。

One comment on the hard question is like, know, please keep them coming.

我其实特别喜欢这种有挑战性的问题。

I mean, I I love the hard questions.

某种程度上，任何新的金融创新都该受到适度的质疑，而这种理性的怀疑恰恰推动我们不断改进，形成一种良性反馈，让金融市场逐步走向更理想的状态。

In in some ways, any new type of financial innovation should and needs to be kind of met with some degree of healthy skepticism, and that healthy skepticism is the thing that pushes us to improve over time, this sort of this nice feedback loop that improves these financial markets to get to the states that they should get to.

我一直很欣赏这样的讨论，也希望你能继续抛出更多问题。不过说真的，你刚才这点说得非常好。

So I've always been a fan of these types of debates and you know, hopefully you'll throw more at me, but So look, this is a great point.

透明度一直是预测市场使命和愿景的核心部分。

Transparency has been a very core piece of the mission and the vision for prediction markets.

这正是关键所在。

That's the whole point.

我们希望市场机制能为未来定价。

We want a market based mechanism to price the future.

我们不希望定价来自一本书、一个分析师、一个评论员，或者单一的做市商，我们希望它是群体智慧的体现。

We don't want the pricing to be a book, we don't want the pricing to be an analyst or a pundit or or one single market maker or so on and so forth, we want it to be this sort of wisdom of the crowds aspect.

我们汇聚了各种背景、不同观点的人，有些人可能来自华尔街，但在Kalshi平台上，很多其实是普通散户——他们爱看新闻、对政治很了解，觉得在传统金融市场里没有优势，因为大型对冲基金掌握着全部信息优势；而在Kalshi，信息是平等的。

We bring a variety of people with diverse opinions, some of them may be from Wall Street, but actually on Kalshi, a lot of them are not the top hedge fund manager, and the top person's retail individuals that love reading the news, know a lot about politics, and feel like they don't have an edge in traditional financial markets because the large hedge funds have all the edge and all the asymmetric information, whereas on Kalshi, information is equal.

这一点非常重要——我们希望一切都能公开透明：任何时刻的价格、价格是如何形成的、谁在什么位置交易。你要是现在打开Kalshi，看总统选举、经济类或者其他任何市场，就能看到实时的交易情况，就像你刚才说的。

And that's a very big part of this, like we want everything to be out there, the price at any point in time, how the price comes to be, who's trading where, and you you see, if you open Kalshi right now on the masters or on our economic or any of our markets, you see the live trades as you mentioned.

谁在买卖什么？

Who is trading what?

买卖双方的成交量分别是多少？

What is the size that's going on either side?

我们不想让任何人为此付费。

And we don't want anyone to pay for that.

这些都是开源的，免费使用，即使你不是产品会员也能访问。

That's open source, it's free, you can access it even if you're not a member of the product.

这确实是在努力创造一个公平的竞争环境，让任何人都能超越他人，无论是为了研究未来，还是为了让自己变得更聪明、更出色。

And this is really really kind of in vain with creating a level playing field where anyone can beat anyone else, if they're looking to do research to get smart about the future and be be better.

我给大家讲个相关的例子吧，这也是让我们公司上下特别高兴的事情。我一直跟别人说，在政治预测方面，Kalshi一直是最准确的。

And I will give you one anecdote about this, and and this is something that really makes us kind of really happy at the company, these types of anecdotes about our customers, which is I always tell people, so Kalshi has been the most accurate forecast for, you know, politics.

我们在选举、经济数据，还有通胀这些方面都看到了这一点。

We saw it at the election, economic, you know, inflation and so on and so forth.

我经常会问大家，嘿，猜猜谁是最准的通胀预测者？

And and I've been asking people like, hey, guess who has been the best inflation forecaster?

在过去两三年里，谁在我们的通胀市场上获得了最高的投资回报率？

Who has the best ROI, return on investment on our inflation markets in the last two to three years?

大家进来猜的时候，我们平台上有一些对冲基金、做市商，还有那些非常专业的机构玩家，他们通常都会猜那些传统的机构玩家。

People come in and guess, we have some hedge funds on the product and market makers and like, you know, really kind of institutional players, and they usually guess some of those typical players.

但事实上，答案是一个来自堪萨斯州的普通路人。

But actually, the answer is it's a random dude from Kansas.

他以前从没交易过金融市场，也不做期权。

Never traded financial markets before, doesn't trade options.

这个人是个狂热的新闻读者，每天都看新闻，喜欢关注经济动态、地缘政治以及各种时事，结果发现他对经济走向的判断相当敏锐，而正是这类人在真正赚钱。

This person is an avid news reader, reads the news every day, likes to be engaged with what's going on with the economy, what's going on with geopolitics, what's going on with a variety of different things, and you know, they ended up being pretty sharp at where where the economy is heading, and those are the types of people that are making making real money.

现在做Kalshi已经是他的全职工作了。

They're now it's their full time job on Kalshi.

如果我们不够透明，如果平台没有那种极致的透明度，让你在和别人交易时能看清所有公开信息，那这些人就很难打败那些传统对冲基金。而这恰恰违背了我们要打造的公平环境。

And if if we weren't transparent, if there wasn't sort of extreme transparency to the platform where you're trading against other people and you can see everything out in the open, it'd be harder for these people to beat to beat the the books or the traditional hedge funds, which, know, is kind of counter to to the to to what we're trying to build.

如果这位堪萨斯州的朋友愿意上播客，我们的邮箱是 podcasts@fool.com。

If this gentleman in Kansas is available for podcasts, our email is podcasts@fool.com.

希望他配备了外接麦克风。

Hope he has an external microphone.

如果他真的是你们平台上最懂宏观经济的人，我们非常想和他聊聊。

Would be very curious to talk to him about the macro economy if he's truly the best on your platform.

Kalshi 上发生了一个根本性的事件，那就是总统大选。

There was a a fundamental event for for Kalshi, and that was the presidential election.

那是你们平台最受关注的时刻，你们也是美国首个合法允许人们押注大选结果的市场，这堪称突破。

That was where you got the most attention on your platform, and it was groundbreaking where you were the first legal market in The United States where people could bet on the election.

现在距离大选过去几个月了，虽然感觉像隔了好久，但你们从2024年总统大选中学到了哪些关于市场投机行为的洞见？

Now that we're we're a few months past that, even though it feels like a lifetime ago, what did you learn about your market in speculative behavior from the twenty twenty four presidential election?

有几件事直接推动了我们走向大选市场。

A few things that led us to the election.

Kalshi 的发展历程是这样的：我们花了整整三年时间，先获得联邦政府的监管许可，拿到了商品期货交易委员会的执照，成为美国首家合法上线预测市场的衍生品交易所。

So the history of Kalshi is we first spent three years upfront getting regulated by the federal government to get a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate the first derivatives exchange that can list prediction markets legally in The US.

之后我们运营了一段时间，想上线大选市场，但监管机构认为我们不该上线，直接阻止了我们。

Then we operated for a while, we wanted to list the election market, but our regulator believed that we should not list it and blocked us from listing it.

我们只好起诉监管机构，把官司打到联邦法院，就在去年总统大选前几周，我们赢了这场诉讼。

We sued our regulator and took them to federal court over this election market, and we won that lawsuit a few weeks before the presidential election last year.

赢下诉讼后，我们让大选市场合法化了，也正式让美国有了更广泛的预测市场和事件合约。

Once we won that lawsuit, we legalized election markets and really a broad suite of prediction markets, event contracts in The United States.

值得一提的是，选举市场自大萧条以来一直被禁止，而我们的诉讼彻底改变了这一局面，让公众现在可以合法交易选举相关合约。

And for reference, election markets have been illegal since the Great Depression, and so we've opened up the ability to trade on the election based on our lawsuit.

赢得诉讼之后，我们的增长速度达到了前所未有的水平。

Once we won that lawsuit, we have grown at an unprecedented rate.

那真是令人难以置信，我来给你看一些数据。

It was truly incredible and I'll give some stats.

在短短一个月到一个半月的时间里，我们的交易总额达到了20亿美元。

So we did $2,000,000,000 of volume in the span of a month, month and a half.

胜诉后，我们一度登顶苹果应用商店榜首，超过了ChatGPT、Instagram、TikTok等多个热门应用。

After we won, we were number one on the app store, overtaking ChatGPT, Instagram, TikTok and a number of other apps.

选举当天，我们的交易量远超其他所有预测市场，网站访问人数达到了约五亿。

On election day, we were the largest out of all prediction markets by quite a bit and we got around 500,000,000 unique people visiting our site.

这可是全球相当大一部分人口了。

So that's a substantial chunk of people in the world.

我们发现，首先，全世界其实都非常关注美国大选。

And so what we've seen is like, first of all, the entire planet really cares about US elections.

这一点可能显而易见，但我们现在有了真实数据来证明它。

And this might be obvious but I think we've kind of now we have real data to prove that.

第二，在选举日临近结束时，我们的网站访问量超过了CNN和福克斯新闻，这说明人们不知道该相信谁——因为CNN说哈里斯领先，福克斯却说特朗普领先。

Number two, there was a period in time around the end of the day where our number of site visits overtook CNN and Fox and that was a sign where people did not know where to look because if you looked at CNN, they were saying one candidate is winning, Harris, and if you looked at Fox, they were saying that Trump is winning.

大家一时茫然，只好转向我们，因为在这里，人们用真金白银押注，最能反映真实趋势，看看到底谁在赢、局势如何发展。

And people kind of didn't know where to look, so they came to us, the prediction markets where people have their money where their mouth is to figure out who's winning and what was going on.

那真是令人难以置信。

And so that was that was really incredible.

而且它真的奏效了，对吧？

And it was amazing because it worked, right?

我不知道你有没有看到那个公告，我们在一月份宣布唐·小约翰担任顾问，他之所以这么积极支持我们的使命，还专门发帖提到，是因为在海湖庄园，他们自己也在用我们的应用和网站，靠预测概率来判断谁会赢——这说明我们真的走得很远了。

Like we, you know, and I I don't know if you saw the announcement, so we announced Don Junior joining as an advisor in January and a big part of why he ended up being rallied about the mission and he tweeted about this was how, you know, in Mar A Lago they were using the app and the site and they were looking at the odds for figuring out who was gonna win, which was kind of this we've come a long way, right?

从当初一个小众的网络玩意儿，到现在成了大众日常使用的工具，变化太大了。

Like this was a niche internet thing to now being totally mainstream and people are kind of using it normally.

但它确实管用。当时有人说这些市场有偏见、被操纵，可事实是，民调全都显示五五开，而Kalshi和其他预测市场的数据却稳定在62%到63%，最终证明，还是预测市场更准。

But it worked, know, and people were saying that these markets, you know, were biased or manipulated and so on but actually you saw that the polls were all at fifty fifty and Kalshi and other prediction markets were at 62, 63% and so the prediction markets were right.

我觉得现在到了一个关键时刻，人们终于意识到：我们真该拥抱这项技术。

And I think now there's this sort of moment where people realize like we should embrace this technology.

它已经在发挥作用，也在被广泛使用。我之前提过，狗狗币和马斯克都在用我们的市场数据，来决定他们要削减多少联邦开支。

It's working, it's being used, and we've seen now, and I've talked about this like Doge and Elon Musk uses our markets to inform how much they're gonna be cutting in federal spend.

不少联邦机构、美联储以及其他组织，都在调取我们的市场数据，用以长期制定经济和公共政策，企业和金融机构也是如此。

A number of federal agencies and economic fed and others are pulling our market data to figure out how to influence economic and government policy over time, same with institutions and businesses.

但这里的关键是，这些预测市场并不是水晶球。

But the important thing here is that these prediction markets are not a crystal ball.

它们也不是万能的。

They're not almighty.

但已经是最接近真相的工具了。

But they're as close as it gets.

之所以能最准确地预测未来，就是因为参与者‘有真金白银在里头’——当钱牵涉其中，没人会说谎。

They're the best way to forecast the future because of this sort of skin in the game aspect, that people don't lie when their money is involved.

我不反对任何金融机构去游说或靠近政治。

I don't begrudge any financial institution for lobbying or trying to get close to politics.

你提到小唐纳德·特朗普是战略顾问。

You mentioned Donald Trump junior is a strategic adviser.

他具体在哪些战略上给你提供建议？

What what strategy is he advising you on?

你们现在的沟通情况是怎样的？

What are those conversations like right now?

是的。

Yeah.

我是说，大家老爱提游说之类的事，但你看，我们不是那种有党派倾向的公司。

I mean, I think people always mention things like, you know, lobbying and other mean, look look, we we are not a we're not a partisan company.

这点非常重要，一定要搞清楚。

Like, that's very important to understand.

我们公司里既有民主党人也有共和党人，不管是在董事会层面，还是在公司内部都是如此。

Have we have Democrats and Republicans involved with the company, both at the board level and obviously in the company itself.

所以，我们真正坚持的是我们的使命，对吧？

And so what we are is we're believers in the mission that we're focused on, right?

所以，任何认同这个使命的人，我想我们都会欢迎他们，也希望他们能来帮助我们，这对两党都是如此。

And so anyone that agrees with that mission, I think we would welcome them and we'd hope for them to come and help us, and that's true for both both sides of the aisle.

你知道，我觉得具体到小唐纳德，其实唐纳德以及整个特朗普家族十年来一直非常推崇直接沟通，直接跟人们交流。

And you know, I think it's specifically when it comes to Don Junior, it's Don and actually the Trump family for a decade now have been big fans of going direct, talking to people directly.

所以推特显然是其中很重要的一部分，推特是社交平台嘛，等等。

So Twitter is obviously a big part of it, Twitter is social and so on.

还有一部分原因是，你知道，媒体总体上对特朗普持相当抵触的态度，所以那些中间渠道对他们来说并不管用，他们不得不直接跟民众对话，而X平台正是实现这一目标的重要载体。

And part of it is like, you know, generally the media has been sort of pretty adverse to Trump, and so the intermediaries didn't really work out for them, so they had to go direct and talk directly to the people, and X was a big vehicle for that.

我觉得我们的预测市场在这方面起到了很好的补充作用，就是直接面向大众，让人们直接参与进来，体现这种群体智慧或者新闻去中心化的理念，对吧？

And I think our prediction markets are being very complementary to that, which is going direct, being directly involved with the people, and this sort of wisdom of the crowds or decentralization of news, right?

就像你在X上获取新闻一样，你是从普通人那里获取信息，而不是从权威机构或像报纸这样的传统媒体。而预测市场则是让你从大众和市场中获取关于未来的信息。

Like x, like you go you go on x to get news from people, not from from an authority or an institution like a newspaper, and you go to prediction markets to get news about the future from people, from markets.

我觉得这两者结合得非常完美。

And I think these two gel very, well together.

你知道的，唐对预测市场一直非常看好。

And you know, Don has been a pretty big fan of prediction markets.

显然，到了年底他们主流化之后，这种关注就更强烈了，促使我们思考如何把产品推向市场，拓展到新地区，探索可能真正有用、有助于普及的新市场类型。

Obviously, when they went mainstream at the end of the year, that's, know, that's kind of heightened the interest, advising us all things go to market, we're expanding to new jurisdiction, the new types of markets that may be actually useful and may help us educate.

现在这已经彻底 mainstream 了，我们有数百万用户，接下来该怎么吸引再一亿用户呢？

You know, this has gone very mainstream now, we have millions of customers, like how do we take it to the next 100,000,000 customer?

我觉得他在这件事上会非常有帮助，过去几个月他已经提供了不少支持。

And I think he's, you know, he's gonna be very helpful with that, he's been very helpful with that over the last few months.

你提到直接面向市场。

You talked about going direct to market.

我觉得你们的平台在预测经济衰退概率这类事情上特别有用。

I I think your your platform is incredibly useful for things like odds of a recession.

人们得把自己的真金白银押上去。

People have to put their money where their mouth is.

这可不是经济学家随便说说的主观看法。

It's not just opinions from an economist.

我们刚才聊到了选举。

We talked about the election.

你的平台上其实有很多可以讲的故事。

There's there's stories that can be told within your platform.

现在，卡玛拉·哈里斯和斯蒂芬·史密斯在你的市场里成为2028年民主党候选人的概率是一样的。

Right now, Kamala Harris and Stephen a Smith have the same percent chance on your market of being the 2028 Democratic nominee.

我知道你之前提过TikTok被禁的事。

I know you've talked about the TikTok ban before.

你看看平台上关于这件事的走势曲线，波动很大，就连杰弗里·爱泼斯坦文件曝光这样的新闻，都能看到人们信心的起伏变化。

When you look at the chart of that on your platform, up and down, the volatility in that, even the the Jeff Epstein files getting released, you can see people's belief wavering, going up and down.

你有没有哪个市场上的故事，是经常让你忍不住去想的？

Is there a story from your market that you find yourself thinking about a lot?

平台上对各种话题的关注度都很高，每个市场都这样。你可能注意到了，市场下方有个Kalshi想法区，只有持有仓位的人才能发帖。

There's so much interest around a variety of different things and each market, and you might have seen this, there's a Kalshi idea section below the market, which is this notion that it's a bit like x that you can only post.

这有点像Twitter，但前提是得先在市场里有头寸才能发内容。

It's a bit like Twitter but you can only post if you have a position in the market.

这特别有意思，因为人们发帖时，有时候是开玩笑，但很多时候，他们其实是在分享自己持仓背后的分析。

And it's beautiful because people are talking about, you know, sometimes they're making jokes and so on, but often they're talking about the analysis behind their positions.

我为什么觉得TikTok会被封禁？

Why do I think TikTok is gonna get banned?

我觉得加文·纽森根本没可能成为民主党候选人，而斯蒂芬·史密斯反而有很大机会，现在这赔率其实挺低的，我觉得市场定价有偏差。

Why do I think that Gavin Newsom has, you know, no chance of being a Democratic nominee and, you know, I believe that Stephen a Smith has actually a pretty big chance and I think the odds right now are a buy, and I think the odds are mispriced.

最棒的是，你能从这个社区里提炼出这样的故事——大家真的在做研究，而且用真金白银押注自己的观点。

And and the beauty of that is like, you can actually craft that story from this community that like is doing all this research and they're putting money where their mouth is.

你看，现在Kalshi上的趋势就是波动很大，赔率的变化就能看出来，对吧？

So look, I mean, think right now the the the story on Kalshi is that there's a lot of volatility, and you see it in the odds, right?

比如经济衰退的概率最近波动得特别厉害。

Like the odds of a recession are moving a lot.

厉害的是，这些市场真的管用。

And the beauty is these markets work.

如果你相信这些市场是有效的，它们在每个时点都反映真实预期，那赔率一直在变——两天前三天前还是70%，现在又回到55%左右——这恰恰说明当前金融市场，甚至整个系统，都处在高度波动和不稳定的状态。

If you trust that these markets work and they're they are kind of accurate at every point in time, and if the odds are constantly moving, so they were at seventy percent two days ago, three days ago, now they're back at 50%, 55%, that just tells you that right now there's a lot of volatility and instability in financial markets, or really the system more broadly.

这种现象在政治、地缘、经济、金融市场，甚至科学和技术领域都能看到。

And and we see it across politics, geopolitics, economics, financial markets, even things like science and technology.

现在啥都可能出事，要是有人在新闻里头信誓旦旦地预测未来会发生啥，那多半是太自以为是了。

It's kind of like anything is fair game and like, you know, in some ways, if anyone is on the news right now telling you, making these bold assumptions and predictions about exactly what's going to happen, they're probably being over certain and over confident.

他们大概率是错的。

They're probably wrong.

对啊。

Yep.

咱们现在的市场，其实就是反映出今天这种高度波动的状态。

And our markets are basically showing that volatility today.

咱们就等着看接下来会发生啥吧。

So we'll see how what happens.

最近几天，关于衰退的市场预测被炒得特别热，我觉得是因为大家都不确定未来会怎样。

Recession market has been extremely heavily quoted in the last few days, and I think it's because people don't know what's gonna happen.

大家就是想知道，我们到底是不是正在经历衰退？

I think they wanna know like, are we are we going through a recession or not?

现在 odds 大概是 55%，里奇，你要是看了的话应该知道。

Right now the odds are, you might have checked them, Ricky, but I think they're like 55%.

超过百分之六十。

Above 60.

哦，到百分之六十四了。

Oh, 64%.

又回到百分之六十四了。

They're back at 64.

哇，真的吗。

Oh, wow.

又回升了。

They're back up.

确实是这样。

Oh, yeah.

所以今年经济衰退的概率有三分之二。

So, you know, two thirds chance of a recession this year.

另外一件事是，有些人并不喜欢Kalshi，包括赌场利益集团。

The other thing going on, there are people that are not big fans of of Kalshi, and that includes casino lobbies.

你收到了内华达、马里兰、伊利诺伊、蒙大拿、新泽西和俄亥俄州的停止函。

You've gotten cease and desist orders from Nevada, Maryland, Illinois, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio.

我明白你的说法，你们不算赌博平台，因为你们不是和赌场对赌。

I I I understand the arguments that you're not a a gambling pool because you're not trading against a casino.

你们是玩家之间相互交易，这点确实不太一样。

You're trading against other players, so it's a little bit different.

但总的来说，和赌场游说团体对抗是什么感觉？

But just broadly, what's it like going up against the casino lobbies?

这种经历对你来说是怎样的？

What's that experience like for you?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我其实并不这么看问题。

I mean, look, I I don't I don't think of it that way.

我真的从来没这么想过。

I honestly don't think of it.

我的意思是，现在新闻满天飞，各种报道，我经常说别太信新闻，因为新闻最爱制造对立、冲突和紧张感，毕竟新闻的本质就是制造紧张。

I mean, there's like a lot of headlines, a lot of news, and, you know, the the thing I say sometimes, like, don't trust the news too much, like the news loves to create sort of these like duels and fights and this kind of tension, because you know, news is tension.

你得看清楚背后真正发生的事才行。

You wanna you wanna see what's happening in the background and so on.

实际上，我们和很多平台方都在进行非常建设性的对话，比如我们有 Cashi.com 和 Cashi Direct，用户可以直接注册成为交易所会员，跟我们直接交易。

So you know, actually a lot of like the operators, mean, we're having a lot of very constructive dialogues with them, and so you see, we have cashi.com, cashi direct, where people go to cashi directly and become members of the exchange and they trade with us.

但传统交易所，比如纽约证券交易所或者芝加哥商品交易所，你根本不会直接去那里买股票或期权，对吧？

But the traditional go to market for exchanges, like the New York Stock Exchange or CME, is you don't go to CME or the New York Stock Exchange to buy an option or a stock, right?

你去的是嘉信理财、Robinhood 这样的平台。

You go to Schwab and Robinhood.

这才是普通人该去的地方。

That's where you go.

你得通过你的经纪商，你的金融中介。

You go to your broker, your financial broker.

所以我们现在正在推出自己的经纪商服务。

And so right now we're launching brokers.

所以我们已经上线了Robinhood和Webull，目前还有十到十二家经纪商在对接中，这将成为我们未来一年市场拓展的核心部分，其中也会包括许多体育博彩运营商——他们正想进入金融产品或预测市场领域，而这些都将由Kalshi提供技术支持。

So we've launched Robinhood and Webull, we have something like 10 to 12 brokers in the pipeline today, and that's gonna be a big part of our go to market for a year and that can and will include a lot of the sports operators that see kind of they wanna get into a financial markets offering or a prediction market offering that will be powered by Kalshi.

在很多方面，人们以为的这种模糊的竞争关系，实际上更像是一种互补，也更接近合作关系，而不是大家通常想象的那样。

And so in many ways, what people are viewing as sort of this vague and factual competition is actually much more complementary and looks a lot more like a partnership than people are sort of like thinking about.

因为大家总觉得预测市场和博彩公司做的玩家赔率、各种投注项目很像，更别提在线赌场了，但那些根本不是我们做的事。

Because people are thinking like, there's this this, you know, the prediction market offering is not actually that competitive, we know player props and all these different things that the books usually do, and definitely not iCasino, which is what casinos really do.

我们的产品和那些完全没关系。

We our offering really have nothing to do with that.

我们更像是在为这些产品提供报价支持，让整个生态更健康地发展，我相信很多行业内的运营商都看到了这一点，所以才主动找我们谈合作，等等。

But it's more much more of a compliment of like, could we provide odds to the participants in those products and could there be just much more of a a healthy emerge, and I think a lot of operators in the space see that and that's why they're talking to us and you know, working on partnerships with us and so on and so forth.

所以我觉得，这个前提其实并不成立。

So I think the premise is not quite right.

没错，我们现在确实和一些州有法律纠纷，他们认为自己对这类业务有管辖权，你可能也看到了，内华达州联邦法院在第一轮裁决中驳回了内华达州的主张，反而支持了我们的临时禁令申请——因为我们一直很明确地强调：金融市场的监管权在联邦层面。

Think, yes, so we do have some some lawsuits right now with some of the states that believe that they have jurisdiction over this and you know, you might have seen the the Nevada, the the federal court in Las Vegas and Nevada kind of ruling against Nevada in this first step or ruling in favor of our preliminary injunction because our our our message has been very clear like financial markets are regularly at the federal level.

对吧？

Right?

在美国任何地方你都可以交易股票，因为这是由联邦政府监管的。

You can trade stocks anywhere in The US it's regulated at federal level.

所以就算某个州某天禁止交易股票，你依然能在那个州交易，因为法律和宪法就是这么规定的。

So if it's state one day bans trading stocks, you can still trade stocks in the state because that's how the constitution of the law works.

对于交易所——我们称之为DCM——在商品期货交易委员会层面运作的业务，情况也是一样的。

And it's a similar thing for anything that an exchange, what we call a DCM, is what we are, does at the CFTC level.

我明白建设性对话的意思，但他们那边有赌场游说团体发来停止函，这通常可不是什么‘咱们继续谈’的信号。

I mean, I I understand constructive dialogue, but they you also you got casino lobby selling you cease and desist letters, which is usually not a let's keep talking kinda thing.

但我理解。

But I understand.

你提供的东西和体育博彩公司以及赌场都不一样。

You're you're offering something different from the sports books and and the casinos.

我的意思不是说所有人都这样，对吧？

Look, my my point wasn't about everyone, right?

任何新事物一旦冲击到现有的机制或行业，总会引发一定程度的质疑，这很正常。我不是说整个行业都这样，其实有很多从业者是愿意合作、愿意一起推进的。我们欢迎任何愿意合作的伙伴。

Like, I think anything new that's sort of disrupting a potential, mechanism or industry and so on, like, obviously will come with, as always, a healthy degree of skepticism, and so I'm not saying that this is everybody in the industry, I think there's a lot in the industry that I think are are looking to partner and work constructively, so and we wanna work with anyone, anyone that's willing to partner and work with us.

但也有一些人态度比较保守，还在琢磨该怎么应对。需要澄清的是，我们并没有收到赌场的停止函，而是来自各州的，这两者根本不是同一方，这点很重要。

And then some that sort of maybe like are more resistant and are still sort of figuring out what they wanna do with To be clear, we didn't receive any season assists from casinos rather, we received from states, which is they're not the same parties, so that's important to flag here.

当然不是所有人，但希望随着时间推移，支持的人会越来越多。

Again, not everybody, but you know, hopefully over time we'll rally more and more.

我觉得，对这件事感兴趣的人群正在这个行业中不断扩大。

I think the pie of people that are basically getting excited about this is growing in that industry.

你们最近还宣布了与罗宾汉的合作。

You also recently announced a partnership with Robinhood.

我知道还早，但你觉得这会对你们平台的活跃度产生什么影响？你们能为罗宾汉带来什么？

I know it's early days, but how do you expect that to impact activity on on your platform, and what do you expect Kalshi to do for Robinhood?

是的。

Yeah.

目前，罗宾汉和威博已经上线了我们的产品。

I mean, so right now we have Robinhood and Webull launching the product.

另外还有大约十到十二家券商正在接入，预计今年内会陆续上线。

We have around 10 to 12 other brokerages that are in the process of integrating and hopefully launching sometime this year.

这次合作非常成功。

Partnership has been extremely successful.

我们的看法也很相似，对吧？

And the way we see it is very similar, right?

就像富达、Webull这样的金融经纪商。

Like financial brokers like Robin Hedgehog, Fidelity, Webull and so on.

他们做的事情就是列出那些在交易所交易的产品。

What they do is they, you know, they list products that are exchange traded.

不管是股票、大宗商品、期权，甚至最近还包括加密货币。

Whether it's stocks or commodities or options, even crypto now more recently.

你知道的，我们今天交易的一个市场，增长最快也最让人兴奋的就是预测市场，因为这些市场都列在Kalshi上。

And you know, one of the markets our exchange traded today, really the fastest growing one and the most exciting one is prediction markets, because the markets are listed on Kalshi.

作为一家受监管的交易所，我们的运作跟纽约证券交易所或芝加哥商品交易所没什么两样。随着时间推移，我们会把越来越多的预测市场产品，跟股票和期权一起放在券商平台上，这样大家就能真正享受到这种多样化产品带来的好处。

And as a regulated exchange, we look no different than New York Stock Exchange or CME and we, over time, are gonna put more and more of our markets, our prediction markets next to stocks and options in the brokerages, so that people can kind of really benefit from this sort of diversity of offerings.

比如我可以持有股票仓位，像特斯拉的股票，然后我可以用它来对冲特斯拉财报发布、美联储加息，或者其他可能影响我的全球事件，所有这些都能整合在一个综合投资组合里。

Like I can have my stocks position, like I can have my Tesla positions for example, and I can hedge against Tesla earnings or against the Fed raising interest rates or other types of things that may going on in the world around me in one comprehensive portfolio.

我们对这个方向以及它可能带来的前景感到非常兴奋。

And we're extremely excited about that sort of direction for right where this can be heading.

所以你知道，这次合作非常成功。

So you know, the partnership has been extremely successful.

我们预计在接下来的几个季度里，会有不少券商平台推出相关产品，我们对这部分业务感到非常期待。

We expect and anticipate, you know, quite a few launches in the coming quarters in terms of brokerages, and I you know, we're we're we're very excited about that part of the business.

Kalshi 的联合创始人兼首席执行官 Tarek Mansour，非常感谢您抽出时间分享您的见解。

Tarek Mansour, who's the CEO, co founder of Kalshi, thank you so much for your time and your insight.

感谢你来到《Motley Full Money》节目。

Appreciate you joining us on Motley Full Money.

谢谢邀请，Ricky。

Thanks for having me, Ricky.

这太棒了。

This was awesome.

预测市场领域还有另一个重要玩家。

There's another major player in prediction markets.

它叫 Polymarket。

It's called Polymarket.

这个平台基于加密货币运行，目前在美国是非法的。

This one runs on crypto and is currently not legal in The United States.

美国人要想使用这个平台，得靠VPN。

Americans have to use a VPN if they want to play on the platform.

广告结束后，纽约杂志的撰稿人珍·维兹纳将和我的同事玛丽·朗聊聊，Polymarket 是如何在竞争激烈的市场中脱颖而出，以及未来几年它有没有可能在美国合法化。

After the break, New York Magazine features writer Jen Wieczner joins my colleague Mary Long to talk about how Polymarket achieved escape velocity in a crowded field and the chance it'll become legal in The US in the next few years.

珍·维兹纳是《纽约杂志》的特约撰稿人。

Jen Wieczner is a feature writer for New York Magazine.

她最新的报道是关于预测市场 Polymarket 的创始人谢恩·科普兰的专访。

Her latest story is a profile on Shayne Coplan, the founder of the prediction market, Polymarket.

珍，我们先从你文章里引用的一句话开始吧。

Jen, to kick us off, I'm I'm gonna quote a quote from Coplan that you use in your story.

他跟你说过，我们的目标是打造一个之前不存在、但又必须出现的东西，而我对它的重视程度超过了任何人。

He told you, I mean, the plan is to build something that didn't yet exist and needed to exist that I cared more about than anyone else.

这段引言就到这里。

That's the end of the quote.

这让我觉得挺有意思，因为科技巨头总爱向我们推销一堆他们说我们‘需要’的东西，但其实我们根本不需要。

This is interesting to me because tech titans like to sell us a lot of stuff that they say we need, but that maybe we don't actually need.

为什么Coplan认为Polymarket非存在不可？

Why does Coplan believe Polymarket needs to exist?

这确实挺有意思。

So it's interesting.

很多人把Polymarket当成一个博彩网站，但他不这么看。

I think a lot of people see Polymarket as a betting site, but he doesn't.

他觉得这更像是一个替代性的‘真相’来源，有点像新闻的另一种选择，能帮人们获取主流媒体里很难拿到的信息。

He sees it as sort of an alternative source of, quote unquote, truth, you know, a potential alternative to news, you know, in a way to kind of gain information that isn't readily available, you know, in kind of the mainstream news landscape that we have.

换句话说，这是一种获取信息的方式。

In other words, you know, this is a way of kind of sourcing information.

你也可以把它叫做众包信息。

You know, you could call it crowdsourcing.