什么时候是趋势？什么时候是炒作？

投资趋势是你的朋友吗？

Is the investing trend your friend?

Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资现在开始。

Motley Fool hidden gems investing starts now.

欢迎来到 Motley Fool 隐藏宝石投资。

Welcome to Motley Fool hidden gems investing.

我是你的主持人，Crowe。

I'm your host, Crowe.

今天和我一起的是长期贡献者 Matt Frankel 和 Jon Quast。

And today, I'm joined by longtime pool contributors, Matt Frankel and Jon Quast.

各位，我觉得我们经常谈论投资中的趋势，但炒作周期和持久商业趋势之间是有区别的。

Guys, I think it's fair we talk about trends a lot in investing, but there is a difference between, like, hype cycles and durable business trends and stuff like that.

我们会稍微深入探讨一下，但实际上我们会从炒作周期的另一端开始，谈论一个冷漠周期，特别是在房地产领域。

We're gonna dig into that a little bit, but we're actually gonna start on the opposite end of a hype cycle and talk about an apathy cycle, and that's in housing kinda specifically.

现在是财报淡季，但总有一些非周期性公司值得关注。

We're in the off season for earnings, but there's always those few off cycle companies worth following.

Lennar是美国最大的住宅建筑商，所以我觉得它应该算符合这个条件。

And Lennar, it's the largest homebuilder in The United States, so I think that sort of qualifies here.

市场对它的业绩反应平平，但作为建筑商，我注意到了一些特别的地方。

The market kinda shrugged at its results, but here's what stood out to me, guys, as a homebuilder.

目前它的股价低于账面价值。

Its stock right now trades for less than book value.

用房地产的话来说，市场认为这家公司基本上已经资不抵债了。

So to use housing terms, the market's implying the company is basically we're underwater.

清算的价值比继续经营还要高。

It's worth more liquidated than trying to operate it as a business anymore.

所以，Matt，我知道你比节目里其他人都更爱研究建筑商的财务数据。

So, Matt, I know you like to dig into homebuilders' numbers probably more so than anyone else in the show.

我们可能会争这个，但我还是把这个称号让给你。

May we we could fight over it, but I'm I'll give you the title here.

这真的有那么糟糕吗？

Was this really that bad?

我知道我们刚加息了，大家都担心房地产市场，但这些数字真的有那么糟糕吗？

I know we just had a rate hike and everyone's scared of housing, but were the numbers really

真的那么差吗？

that bad?

嗯，有好有坏吧。

Well, yes and no.

莱纳在盈利和收入上都未达预期，还下调了业绩指引，CEO的评论也很糟糕。

So Lennar missed on both earnings and revenue and cut its guidance, and the CEO gave pretty terrible comments.

股价一开始就大跌了。

The stock is down like a great start.

股价下跌了2%。

The stock is down by 2%.

你能想象如果一个人工智能基础设施股票遇到这样一连串的坏消息，会跌成什么样吗？

Can you imagine what an AI infrastructure stock would be if it had that, you know, four pack of bad news?

你懂吧？

You know?

但是，莱纳的业绩确实很糟糕，而且不只是没达到预期那么简单。

But but, Lennar, you know, the numbers were terrible, and it's not just that they missed expectations.

问题是他们现在不得不给买家各种优惠。

It's that they're having to incentivize buyers.

如果你正打算买房，这倒是个好消息。

This could be good news if you're in the market for a house.

莱纳已成交房屋的优惠幅度大概是售价的12%。

Incentives at Lennar's for Lennar's closed homes have been about 12% of the selling price.

也就是说，如果你买一套40万美元的房子，莱纳会给你差不多5万美元的优惠。

That means if you're buying a $400,000 home, Lennar's giving you $50,000 or so worth of incentives.

这确实挺惊人的。

You know, that's pretty remarkable.

其实成本还稍微降了一点。

I mean, costs are down a little bit.

所以还是有一些亮点的。

That there's some bright spots here.

这家公司一直在回购股票，其他很多建筑商也是这么做的。

The company's been buying back stock as are a lot of other homebuilders.

但我觉得，莱纳和其他一些建筑商基本上在过去三四年里都在清仓大甩卖。

But, I mean, it feels like Lennar and some of these other homebuilders are essentially running clearance sales on their products for the past three to four years.

现在美联储又加息了，真是看不到头。

And now with the new Fed hike, there's really no end in sight.

现在手里有钱买房的话，时机还挺不错的。

It's it's a pretty good time to have money to buy a home right now.

马特，房地产市场确实有些不利因素，对吧？

I mean, there are some headwinds in the home space, aren't there, Matt?

利率在其中起了很大的作用。

And interest rates are playing a big part of that.

总统当然说过，他希望利率能降到1%甚至更低。

The president, of course, saying that he would love them 1% or less.

但现实是，这根本不可能发生。

The reality is that ain't happening.

他安排了自己人进去。

He has his guy in there.

他们没能把利率降下来。

They were not able to bring rates down.

实际上，他们看着债务，说我们其实需要加息。

In fact, they were looking at the debt and saying we actually need to raise rates.

我感觉自己就像《公主新娘》里绝望深渊中的韦斯利。

I mean, I feel like Wesley in the pit of despair in The Princess Bride.

我当然希望利率能低一些。

I mean, I would like rates to be lower.

很多人都希望利率降低，原因各不相同。

A lot of people would like rates lower and for a variety of reasons.

现实是现在不会发生，这就是我们目前所处的局面。

The reality is it's not happening right now, and that is the space that we find ourselves right now.

马特，我们一直在聊这个，乔恩，我们关于住房的讨论也持续了一段时间了。

Matt, we've been talking about this, and, Jon, we we we've had this conversation about housing for a while.

这太糟糕了。

It's lousy.

而且我们大家其实都等了很久了。

And we've all been kind of waiting this long time.

就像，好吧，降息、降息，结果现在又看到加息了。

It's like, well, when interest rate cuts, interest rate cuts, we're now looking at hikes again.

这跟2022、2023年的情况好像差不多。

This was not seems relatively similar to the story in 2022, 2023.

我不是说我们会像那时候那样大幅加息，但确实又回到了信贷紧缩的周期。

I'm not gonna say we're gonna go like these jumbo hikes that we saw during that time, but we're back into a credit tightening cycle.

这对房地产市场来说可不是什么好兆头。

This doesn't this doesn't pretend well for the housing market.

情况不太好，而且这个话题我们已经聊了很久了。

It's not great, and we have been talking about this for a while.

很难看出未来几年会有什么改变。

It it it's hard to see like over the next couple of years that changing.

这个行业里有很多公司在一段时间内可能都不是好的投资选择，但它们便宜。

There are lots of companies that will likely be lousy investments for a while in this industry, but they're cheap.

就像我刚才说的，莱纳的股价已经低于它的账面价值了。

Like I was just saying, Lennar is trading for less than its book value.

也许它们适合五年到十年的长期投资，但我想很多人会想，嗯，我不确定是否愿意等五年去等一个可能不会到来的回报。

Maybe they're good investments for, like, five to ten years, but I think a lot of people will be like, well, I don't know if I necessarily wanna wait five years to wait for a payoff that may or may not come.

所以看看它，觉得还行。

So looking at it and being like, it's okay.

这里可能有些值得入手的东西。

There's maybe something worth getting at here.

在房地产相关的股票中，有哪些公司实际上有近期的催化剂呢？

What are some companies in housing related stocks that actually have near term catalysts?

嗯，从风险范围来看，投资莱纳要比我接下来要说的那家公司风险小得多。

Well, as far as the risk spectrum goes, you're gonna be far less riskier with Lennar than the company I'm about to mention.

但我确实想提一下FIGR技术解决方案。

But I I do wanna highlight FIGR Technology Solutions.

它的股票代码是F-I-G-R。

That is ticker ticker symbol f I g r.

我认为，鉴于目前的市场动态，这家公司可能会受益于一些有利因素。

I believe that this business could enjoy some tailwinds given the market dynamics that we see right now.

那FIGR Technologies具体是做什么的？

So FIGR Technologies, what exactly does it do?

FIGR Technology Solutions是一个用于房屋净值信贷额度发放的技术平台。

So FIGR Technology Solutions is a technology platform for home equity line of credit origination.

就是HELOC贷款发放，它是一个技术平台。

So HELOC origination, it is a tech platform for that.

它建立在区块链技术之上。

It is built on blockchain technology.

它的价值主张是，相比市面上其他一些方案，它能更快、更经济地发放一些HELOC贷款。

The value proposition is that it can originate some HELOC loans faster faster and more cost effectively than maybe some other things that are out there.

更快、更高效。

Faster and more effective.

听起来对生意很好，但我想问的是，这怎么转化成对投资者更低的利率，或者对想申请房屋净值贷款的人来说更便宜呢？

It sounds great for the business, but I guess my question is, how does that translate to, like, cheaper rates for investors or, I I guess, LEN or people who wanna take out HELOCs?

因为像家得宝、劳氏、家装股这些公司，一直受到的一个大影响就是，人们因为利率太高而不去用房屋净值贷款。

Because one of the things that has really shouldered companies like Home Depot and Lowe's and Home Improvement Stocks and a lot of these others is that people aren't using HELOCs because the rates are too high.

FIGR做的事情，真的是为了降低利率，让它们比传统市场更有竞争力吗？

Is what FIGR does actually designed to bring down rates like they're more competitive than your traditional market?

有可能。

Can be.

有可能。

Can be.

这确实有点像Upstart那种模式。

It it's certainly kind of a little bit like it's reminiscent of UPSTART in a way.

它试图比传统方法更有效地匹配信用状况。

It's trying to to match credit profiles more more effectively than the traditional methods.

但是，你知道，我有点不同意，因为趋势显示，虽然更多人被锁定在现有利率上，他们仍然想动用房子里的那笔资金。

But, you know, I I push back a little bit because the the trends are showing that with more people being locked into their rate, they do still want to access that capital that they have tied up in their home.

传统上，他们通常是通过卖房或者再融资来获取这笔钱的。

And traditionally, they've done that when they they've sold perhaps or they refinance, and that's how they get it out of there.

现在这笔钱被锁住了，他们还是不想放弃那些房贷。

It's it's kinda trapped right now, and they still don't wanna give up those mortgages.

所以房屋净值信贷额度可能不如过去那么热门，但最近确实有回升的趋势。

So the home equity line of credit, maybe not what it's been in the past, but it is showing an uptick here recently.

人们确实想要动用那笔现金。

People do want access to that cash.

所以这股顺风是存在的。

And so the the tailwind is there.

在我看来，FIGR的好处在于它并没有真正承担HELOC本身带来的金融风险。

What's so good about FIGR in my view is that it's not actually shouldering the financial risk that comes with the HELOCs themselves.

它基本上是在和其他金融机构合作。

It's essentially partnering with other financial institutions.

所以是那些机构采用它的平台来发放更多的HELOC，这也是为什么它能享受较低的风险，同时还能获得非常可观的利润率。

So they're the ones adopting its platform to originate more HELOCs and that is why it's able to enjoy less risk perhaps and also great, great profit margins.

你看这个，营业利润率42%，净利润率39%。

So you look at this thing, 42% operating profit margin, 39% net margin.

这确实是一个非常非常赚钱的生意，而且增长很快。

This is actually a a really, really profitable business and growing fast.

当然，在当前这种环境下，和一个不需要马上放贷的伙伴合作，听起来确实更有吸引力一些。

Certainly, idea of, like, partnering with somebody who doesn't actually have to lend right now sounds a little bit better or more appetizing in in this certain environment.

但是，Matt，我想这肯定不是唯一的机会吧。

But, Matt, I have to imagine that's not the only place.

我同意，房地产市场短期内不会好转。

I agree that things are not gonna get better quickly for housing.

我在这方面的看法已经有所改变了。

I've I've kinda changed my tune on that.

现在任何认为利率会下降的人，都需要重新审视自己的观点。

Anyone whose thesis is rates are gonna go down needs to rethink their thesis right now.

我的意思是，他们只是说这是必然要发生的。

I mean, they just say that's just what has to happen.

说实话，我完全不知道六个月后或一年后房贷利率会是多少，其他人也不知道。

And to be honest, I have no idea where mortgage rates will be in six months, one year, etcetera, and neither does anyone else.

即使美联储完全按照你的预期行事，房贷利率也不一定会跟着美联储的动向走。

Even if the Fed does exactly what you expect, mortgage rates don't necessarily track what the Fed's doing.

就近期催化剂而言，我认为最好的押注对象是房东，而不是房屋建筑商。

For for near term catalysts, I I'd make the argument that the best bets are on the landlords, not on the homebuilders.

我的意思是，高利率环境持续更久，意味着会有更多人选择租房而不是买房。

And what I mean by that is a higher interest rate environment for longer means that more people are gonna be renting than buying.

有两家房地产投资信托基金专注于独栋住宅租赁。

There are two real estate investment trusts that focus on single family rentals.

它们分别叫Invitation Homes，代码是INVH，还有American Homes 4 Rent，名字不是最有创意的，但股票代码是AMH。

They're they're called Invitation Homes, I n v h, and American Homes four Rent, not the most creative name in the world, but ticker symbol there is AMH.

American Homes 4 Rent特别有意思，因为它们在一定程度上不受那个新的联邦规定影响，你知道的，就是大型投资者不能再购买独栋住宅的规定。

American Homes four Rent is especially interesting because they're kinda insulated from that new federal mandate that, you know, large investors can't buy single family homes anymore.

它们更倾向于自己建房而不是买房，如果做得好，这能带来成本优势。

They're more they like to build instead of buy their homes to cost advantage if they do it well.

这也可能成为房屋建筑商的近期催化剂。

It it could also be a near term catalyst for the homebuilders.

莱纳的首席执行官特别提到了为出租而建的住房。

Lennar's CEO specifically called out built for rent housing.

很多这样的公司都在与建筑商合作，这是本季度的一个亮点。

A lot of these companies are partnering with builders as as a bright spot in the quarter.

但我想总结一下，我不确定房屋建筑商是否一定是五到十年的投资。

But, I mean, I I would sum it up by saying, I don't know if the homebuilders are necessarily a five to ten year investment.

正如你提到的，很多公司的股价都低于账面价值。

As you mentioned, a lot of them are trading below book value.

只要有一点好消息，市场就可能重新评估这些公司。

It wouldn't take much good news to cause the market to rerate these.

我的意思是，房屋建筑行业已经疲软了一段时间，而这些股票在一段时间内的交易价格远高于账面价值。

I mean, it homebuilding has been weak for a while, and these stocks traded for a lot more than book value for for a while.

就像我说的，莱纳在营收和利润双双不及预期、下调指引、首席执行官评论糟糕的情况下，股价只跌了2%。

I mean, like I said, Lennar only fell 2% on a on a a double double miss, a guidance cut, terrible CEO commentary.

我同意，我对房地产开发商的投资逻辑是五到十年的长期投资。

I mean, I I agree that my thesis with homebuilders is a five to ten year one.

但现在，短期的下行风险收益比，可能比你想象的要更有利。

But right now, the short term downside risk reward, profile could be, you know, more favorable than you think.

你看。

Look.

我不想让人觉得我好像是在说，你看。

I don't wanna come off as being like, look.

我觉得房地产开发商很糟糕。

I I think how homebuilders are lousy.

其实你会在我的个人投资组合里找到一两只这样的股票。

You'll actually find one or two in my own investing portfolio.

所以过去我确实押注过这个行业。

So it is something I have bet on in in the past.

这是一个我目前投资并且计划未来继续投资的行业。

It's it's an industry I I do and plan on keeping invested in in the future.

只是很难看到短期催化剂，你知道，就像那种‘对，我们现在就得做这个’的感觉。

It's just that it's it's hard to, you know, see the short term catalysts that are going to be like, yeah.

我们现在就得做这个。

We need to do this now.

对我来说，这几乎就像一个投资窗口。

For me, it almost seems like an investing window.

我个人并不介意，比如，接受这种观点，然后说‘对，我可能一两年表现不佳’。

I personally don't have, like, take any contention and be like, yeah, I could be lousy for a year or two.

只是对于想进入这个领域的投资者来说，这可能是个挑战。

It's just hot can be a challenging thing for investors who are trying to get into this.

但这就是其中的一个挑战——能够看穿短期的噪音，做出那些真正有效的长期投资。

But that's one of the challenges here is being able to see through the short term noise and make those long term investments that are actually going to work.

说到这个话题，你不仅会遇到像现在房地产市场这样的低迷周期，还可能遇到炒作周期。

And on that topic, not only do you have the apathy cycles like we have here with housing, you can also get into hype cycles.

这就是我们休息之后要讨论的内容。

And that's what we're gonna talk about after the break.

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我今天早上在读《华尔街日报》，就像每个两个孩子的中年父亲现在似乎都会做的那样。

I was reading The Wall Street Journal this morning just as, I don't know, every middle aged father of two seems to do at this point.

但市场通讯里有一个讨论是关于核能交易命运的衰落。

But and one of the discussions in the markets newsletter was the fading fortunes of the nuclear trade.

我想去年，我们看到了很多投资者对核能股票的热情，因为对电力的需求、万物电气化、AI基础设施。

I think last year, we saw a lot of investor enthusiasm for nuclear stocks because of all the demand for power, electrification of everything, AI infrastructure.

你知道吗？

You know?

我们上哪儿弄这么多电去？

Where are we gonna get all this power?

哦，肯定得靠核能，因为它便宜。

Oh, it's gonna come from nuclear because it's it's cheap.

又清洁。

It's clean.

而且，你知道，不像化石燃料那样依赖别的国家。

It's, you know, we're not dependent on other nations for it with the fossil with fossil fuels.

这些理由都成立。

All of the arguments that it had.

但到今天，这股热情大部分已经退了，那些被吹上天的核能股，好多都跌了百分之五十、七十。

But as of today, most of that enthusiasm has faded, and several of those highly touted nuclear stocks are now down fifty, seventy.

我记得有一只甚至从历史高点跌了大概百分之八十八，而且我觉得，行业前景其实没什么变化。

I think one of them is even down, like, 88% from their all time highs with, I think it's fair to say, little change to the business outlook for the industry.

我不想太深入讲核能这个具体话题。

I I don't wanna get too deep into nuclear specifically.

我觉得这里的关键是投资炒作周期，因为可能有很多投资者跟风买了核能相关的股票，现在亏得很惨。

I I I the I think the topic here is investing in hype cycles because there's probably a lot of investors who bought into this hype cycle around nuclear and are sitting on huge losses.

这对投资者来说是个巨大的挑战。

It it hits an immense challenge for investors.

就是要区分哪些是持久的商业趋势，哪些只是炒作周期，并且想办法把这两者分开。

It's identifying the durable business trends versus getting caught up in the hype cycles and trying to separate one from the other.

核能增长和整体电力需求增长可能确实是个持久趋势，但显然也有很多炒作，让不少投资者吃了亏。

There is probably a durable trend here in terms of growth of nuclear power, more power demand in general, but, obviously, there was a lot of hype that left a lot of investors burned.

我自己以前也栽过跟头。

I I've certainly gotten burned before.

我觉得我最大的错误是在2013、2014年的时候，太押注页岩油开采了，当时觉得它会彻底改变整个行业。

I think my biggest fault was, betting too hard on shale drilling, in, like, 2013, 2014 being thinking like, oh, it was gonna revolution the revolutionize the industry.

它确实改变了，但同时也把行业搞得一团糟。

It did, and it kinda ruined the industry at the same time.

我们看到了很多破产，很多股票基本上跌到零。

And we saw lots of bankruptcies, lots of stocks basically go to zero.

我想我可能有一两只这样的股票。

I think I had maybe one or two of them.

我记得我持有过Seadrill这家公司。

I think Seadrill is one of the companies I had.

但各位，我猜你们也有过类似的经历，在这些炒作周期中被套牢。

But guys, I'm assuming you guys have also had similar experiences of getting burned on these hype cycles.

你说得对。

I mean, you're right.

核能股票已经跌了一年了。

Nuclear stocks have been declining for a year now.

这其中有很大的教训值得学习。

It's a big some big lessons to learn there.

你提到的OKLO，它几乎在2025年涨到200美元，跌了80%。

I think you're talking about OKLO would be as the 80% It was almost $200 in 2025.

现在大概40块了。

Now it's about 40.

关于趋势，最大的教训之一——这也适用于核能——就是虽然投资者可能方向看对了，但我们三个人谁都不认为十年后核能在电力格局里的角色会比现在小。

One of the biggest lessons about trends, and it applies to nuclear, is that while investors could be directionally right, I don't think any of the three of us think nuclear is gonna play less of a role in the power landscape in ten years than it does now.

像估值和公司具体的投资逻辑这些东西，仍然很重要。

Things like valuation and company specific investment thesis, they still matter.

你说得对。

And I you you're right.

我以前也被趋势坑过。

I've been burned by trends before.

我在这儿要好好自我批评一下。

I'm gonna call myself out big time here.

我最大的教训就是2020到2021年的投机热潮，当时不止我一个人栽了。

My big one was the twenty twenty to twenty twenty one spec boom, which I wasn't the only one.

你看不出来，但我现在正看着Jon呢。

You can't tell, but I'm looking at Jon right now.

我们俩在那个时期都有一些看走眼的投资。

We we both kinda had some some duds in that that era.

还好，大部分时候我都控制住了仓位。

Thankfully, I limited my positions for the most part.

我觉得乔恩也是。

I think Jon did too.

但我投了几家公司，我们有些重叠的，那些公司当时被炒得很热，估值高得离谱，根本不合理。

But I invested in several companies, and we had some overlap here that were very hyped and were trading for valuations that simply didn't make sense.

我来说说我自己的三个例子。

And I'll call out three of mine.

一个是叫23andMe的公司，很多人都知道。

One was a company called 23andMe, which a lot of people know.

他们是做基因检测的。

They're the genetic testing company.

还有一个叫Latch，这个就别提了，提起来我可能都要掉眼泪了。

There's one called Latch, which don't even get me started on that one because I might shed a tear or two.

然后还有Offerpad，你知道，号称房地产的未来。

And then there's Offerpad, which, you know, the future of real estate.

它们都有收入，但远远不足以支撑它们的估值。

They all had revenue, but not that even remotely justified their valuations.

那些预测很吸引人，有一段时间，投资者不断推高这些公司的股价，势头看起来合理，而且资金成本很低。

The projections were compelling, and for a while there for a while there, investors were driving these companies higher, and the momentum seemed reasonable, and money was free.

这些公司想借钱就能借到。

These companies could borrow money whenever they wanted to.

但如果我当时稍微做个快速的热度检查，就能避免一些损失。

But if I had just used a little quick hype check, it would have prevented some of these losses.

你知道，这家公司现在有没有真实的收入，还是估值主要靠预测？

You know, does the company have revenue real revenue today or is the valuation mostly based projections?

比如Latch，它的预测相当离谱，事后看来根本不合理。

Latch for example had pretty crazy projections that, you know, in hindsight didn't make sense.

另一个问题是，要让这家公司真正值我付的那个价，需要有多少事情都顺利发生？

The other question, how many things need to go right before the business is truly worth what I'm paying?

23andMe是个正经生意，但得有很多事情都顺顺利利才行。

Twenty three and me is a real business, but a lot had to go right.

他们整个论点都建立在，好吧，我们要用所有的基因检测数据来研发药物，这本身就不是什么板上钉钉的事。

Their whole thesis was based on, okay, we're gonna use all of our genetic testing data to develop drugs, which in itself is not a guarantee.

有多少药能真正通过临床试验并投入生产？

How many drugs actually make it through the trial process and into production?

其中又有多少能真正赚回研发成本？

How many of those actually make the money back that they that it cost to develop them?

很多事情都得顺顺利利才行。

A lot had to go right.

如果当时我用了这个检查，可能当场就会停下来。

That would have stopped me in my tracks right there if I just used that.

还有一个要问自己的问题，在像核能这样的趋势里，有没有一个所谓的“无聊”公司，即使趋势消退或者需要时间，也能从中赚钱并表现良好？

And another question to ask yourself in trend trends like nuclear, is there a, quote, boring company that will make money and do well from this trend even if the trend fizzles or takes a while?

顺便说一句，这就是为什么我用IBM来押注量子计算趋势，而不是那些纯粹的量子计算股票。

That, by the way, is why I'm using IBM to play the quantum computing trend and not one of the pure play quantum stocks.

所以，我在趋势上栽过跟头。

So, I've been burned by trends.

作为投资者，我们能做的就是吸取教训，将来再运用这些经验。

All we can do as investors is learn our lessons and and apply them in the future.

对我来说，是个性化健康和健身。

For me, personalized health and fitness.

你知道，我仍然认为这可能是一个巨大的长期趋势，但我真的没想到它会以比目前更快的速度和不同的方式发展。

You know, I still think that's probably a huge long term trend, but I really saw it playing out a lot faster and a lot differently than it has so far.

我原以为可穿戴设备会彻底改变这两个领域。

I really thought that wearable devices were just going to revolutionize both of those spaces.

我可以想象一个场景，你戴着可穿戴设备。

I could envision a the reality in which you're wearing a wearable device.

它追踪你所有重要的健康数据，然后这些数据可以传输到像Peloton这样的联网健身设备，或者传输给像Teladoc这样的远程医生咨询。

It's tracking all of your important health data and that is then transferable to a connected fitness device such as a Peloton or transferable to a remote doctor consultation such as through Teladoc.

而这两家公司，我当时真的觉得趋势已经来了。

And both of those are companies that I really saw as the the trend is here.

就是现在。

It's now.

规模很大。

It's big.

发展会很快。

It's gonna be fast.

结果这两家公司都进了我的投资组合，而且从那以后都亏得一塌糊涂。

And both of those found their way into my portfolio and both were incredible losers from there.

我觉得这可能确实还是个长期趋势，但也许有点太急、太早了，这些企业还没准备好按我设想的那样起飞。

I think it probably still is a long term trend, but perhaps a little bit too fast, too soon, and the businesses were not quite ready to take off the way that I envisioned them.

最让人郁闷的事情之一就是，这些趋势背后其实是有长期支撑的。

It is always one of the more frustrating things is because there can be durable trends behind them.

我觉得更让人郁闷的可能是看着一家公司能抓住趋势，却执行不到位。

I I think perhaps one of the more frustrating things is watching a company be able to tap into that trend but not execute on it.

这里有几个例子，就是那些想法本身有点道理的公司，但他们在业务层面的执行，能不能把趋势转化成实际的收入和利润，这跟趋势本身完全是两码事。

I think there's a couple examples here of, you know, companies that you know, there there is something there to the idea, but they're having the execution at the business level to translate that into actual rev revenue and earnings is always a different story than the actual trend itself.

回到九十年代，你知道，当时Gartner有个研究员。

Back in the nineties, you know, there was like this re a researcher at Gartner.

他提出了所谓的新兴技术炒作周期，我觉得我们在这里讨论的很多东西都符合这个规律。

It developed it was called the hype cycle for emerging technologies, and I feel like a lot of things we're talking about here really falls onto that.

你知道，一开始会有快速的早期创新。

You know, you have the rapid early innovations.

然后伴随着所谓的早期热情，之后很多这些趋势会经历一个幻灭低谷，再然后就是缓慢而稳定的进步，技术承诺逐渐实现，最后进入生产力平台期。

You it comes with this they they call it, like, the the early enthusiasm, and then after, like, lot of these trends here, that goes through a trough of delusionment and then this slow and steady march towards actual progress where the promises of the tech become realized and then plateau productivity.

就是这里。

It's here.

这说得通。

It makes sense.

现在是个成熟市场了。

It's a mature market now.

不是所有东西都完全遵循这个规律，但大体上都是这样发展的。

It it Not everything follows us to a precise thing, but it tends to go along there.

而且有很多例子，投资者在所有这些阶段都取得了巨大的成功，早期投资，或者你可能等炒作消退，等到它真正产生效益的时候再投。

And there are plenty of examples who investors have been immensely successful in all of them, investing early, maybe you're waiting for the hype to die down, waiting till it's actually productive.

比如，投资最好的地方在于，你在任何一个阶段都能找到成功的机会。

Like, you the best part about investing is you can find success in any of these flavors.

嗯，泰勒，我觉得我们需要区分商业炒作周期和投资者炒作周期，因为它们不一定是一样的。

Well, Tyler, I do think that we need to distinguish between the business hype cycle and the investor hype cycle because they're not necessarily the same.

回到核能这个话题，我的意思是，现在市面上有些核能股票还没有收入，而且预计未来五到十年内可能都没有收入。

To circle back to nuclear, I mean, some of these nuclear stocks out there are pre revenue, and they're expected to be pre revenue for perhaps the next five to ten years.

那时候你投资的就不是一个业务了。

You're not investing in a business at that point.

在这种情况下，你必须有非常好的理由去投资一家没有收入的公司。

There you have to have a really good reason to invest in a pre revenue company.

它有什么东西能给它带来某种可量化的竞争优势或优势，或者希望它能成为大赢家，而它甚至还没有产生任何收入，对吧？

What does it have that is going to give it some sort of any quantifiable competitive advantage or edge or hope that it's going to be a big winner when it's not even generating any revenue Right?

所以确实存在一个投资者炒作周期，在投资中经常会出现这种情况。

So there's an investor hype cycle that definitely comes to to bear often in investing.

另外还有商业炒作周期，那跟投资炒作周期有点不一样。

There are also business hype cycles, and so those are a little bit different.

就说几年前吧，如果你数一数公司财报电话会议里提到的词，全是元宇宙、元宇宙、元宇宙。

So just a few years ago, if you could count up mentions on company earnings calls, and it was all about metaverse, metaverse, metaverse.

我们正在元宇宙里做这个，在元宇宙里做那个。

We're we're doing this in the metaverse, doing that in the metaverse.

我觉得这些公司其实是想说，哦，有这么个新兴技术，我们得参与进去。

And I think these companies really were trying to say, oh, here's this emerging technology that we've gotta be a part of.

所以他们就往那个方向靠。

And so they were leaning in that way.

结果呢，好吧。

And turns out, okay.

现在其实没什么好变现的东西。

There's not really anything to monetize there right now.

所以，你知道，商业炒作周期当时确实就在那个炒作点上。

So, you know, business hype cycle was was right there at that hype.

现在我觉得，大家对元宇宙的期望已经降得很低很低了。

And now I'd say, you're down way, way down when it comes to expectations for the metaverse.

那它还会再火起来吗？

And does it ever march back?

谁知道呢？

Who knows?

区块链也是另一个领域。

Blockchain was also another area.

但是，你知道，投资者炒作的东西和企业炒作的东西之间肯定是有区别的。

But, you know, there's definitely a difference there between what investors are hyped about and what businesses are hyped about.

我觉得里面也有某种Web 3.0之类的东西。

I I feel like there's a a form of web three point o or whatever that was in there as well.

所以，不管是什么类型的炒作周期，不管是商业炒作周期还是投资炒作周期，每个人都有自己的口味。

So but with all the different flavors of hype cycles, whether it be business hype cycles, investing hype cycles, you know, everyone's has their own flavor.

但对你们个人来说，作为投资者，你们觉得在哪里最成功？

But for you guys personally, like, what where have you found the most success as an investor?

你是会早早入场，跟着炒作一路走，还是等市场真正成熟了再进？

Are are you jumping early and ride it through the hype or wait until the market has materially developed?

就我个人经验来说，我特别不擅长早早入场，所以我发现自己更倾向于等市场发展成熟了再进。

I can say from personal experience, I'm really lousy at jumping in early, and so I have found that I am more of a wait for the market has developed.

这可能反映了我这个人本身的特点，而且，你知道，也许这也会影响为什么人们会同意或者不同意我的看法。

Maybe that reflects on who I am as a person and, you know, might shape why people may or disagree agree or disagree with me.

那你呢，你在这个光谱上处于什么位置？

But, you know, where do you land on that spectrum?

嗯，泰勒，我跟你差不多。

Well, same z's there, Tyler.

我要是早早跟风一个趋势，那肯定就错了。

I I when I have jumped in early on a trend, I'm definitely wrong.

比如有个趋势我早早跟进了，当时我还真觉得自己挺聪明的，就是幽灵厨房。

So one trend that I jumped in on early, and I I really thought that I was smart, was ghost kitchens.

我当时觉得那会是个特别大的趋势。

I thought that that was gonna be a huge trend.

我有些投资亏得血本无归，因为我觉得自己是在一个真正的趋势上提前入场。

I had some investments that went to zero because I thought I was getting in early on a real trend.

那也算是一种验证吧。

I had some validation there.

你知道，优步的创始人特拉维斯·卡兰尼克，他把宝都押在了幽灵厨房上。

You know, former Uber founder, Travis Kalanick, he was putting his eggs in the ghost kitchen basket.

结果完全不像我想的那样。

Really did not pan out the way I thought it would.

所以我最大的收益，尤其是金额上的收益，来自一个非常简单的生意，叫Five Below。

So my biggest gains, and particularly dollar gains, have come from a very simple business called Five Below.

向青少年和儿童卖东西没什么革命性的。

There is nothing revolutionary about selling stuff to teens and preteens.

但这个商业模式是合理的。

But the business model made sense.

等我投资的时候，它已经站稳脚跟，而且已经是一家相当大的公司了。

By the time I invested, this it was already well established and was already a substantially large company.

所以我不是从一开始就入场的，但投资这种相对简单的业务，我还是赚了不少钱。

And so I did not get in from the beginning, but I've still made a lot of money investing in something fairly simple.

那我们就可以说你是那种在业绩稳定期投资的投资者。

So we'll say you are a productivity plateau investor.

马特，你呢？

Matt, what about you?

我既在炒作周期早期入场赚过钱，也在市场成熟后等待时赚过钱。

I I've made money getting in early on the hype cycle and made money waiting till the markets developed.

但在中间阶段投资时，我吃过亏。

I've gotten burned by investing in the middle of those two.

举个例子，我自己的投资组合里有Block，以前叫Square。

So one example I I bring up from my own portfolio is Block, formerly known as Square.

我在它上市后几天就早早投资了，那时候大多数线下交易还是用现金，我投资了一家金融科技公司。

I invested early just a few days after its IPO and I invested in a fintech at a time when most in person transactions were still made in cash.

你知道，那时候在农贸市场用信用卡付款还不流行，我就是在那个时候投资的。

You know, that you you could you know, paying with a credit card at your local farmer's market wasn't a thing when I invested in there.

所以早期投资让我在Block上现在有大约800%的收益，虽然它已经降温了。

So investing early has me sitting on about an 800% gain in my portfolio in in block right now even though it's cooled off.

如果在2021年金融科技最热的时候投资，我可能会亏损75%。

Investing at peak fintech hype in about 2021 would have me sitting on a 75% loss if I had invested there.

但现在市场已经成熟了，我们对金融科技也有了一定的了解，还是有一些不错的机会。

But now that the market has developed and we kind of see what's what with fintech, there are some good good opportunities.

Block本身的交易价格还不到今年预期收益的20倍。

Block itself trades for less than 20 times expected earnings this year.

PayPal是另一个例子，它现在更像是一只价值股。

PayPal is another example of of one that is is more of a value stock right now.

所以我在炒作之前和炒作之后都赚过钱，但从来不在炒作最热的时候投资。

So I've made money before and after the hype the peak hype, but never never, in the middle of the hype cycle.

好吧，如果我们都能从中学到一个教训，那就是在炒作最热的时候要非常非常谨慎。

Well, if there's one lesson we can take from all of us, be very, very skeptical at the top of a hype cycle.

休息之后，我们会进入邮件环节。

We'll hit the mailbag after the break.

大家好。

Hey, everyone.

快速提醒一下。

Just a quick reminder.

如果你想给我们发邮件。

You wanna get an email to us.

地址是 podcasts@fool.com。

It's podcasts@fool.com.

注意有个 s。

That's with an s.

如果需要的话，在节目描述里也有。

And if you need it, it's in the show description.

今天的问题来自 Greg Saint Clair。

Today's question comes from Greg Saint Clair.

这个问题有点关于那种冷漠和炒作周期，而且我们最近也讨论了很多关于波动性的内容。

It's kind of a little bit on that apathy hype sort of cycle, and, also, we've had a discussion a lot about volatility lately.

所以他有一个关于10%回调的具体问题。

And so he has a question about 10% corrections specifically.

嗨，朋友们。

Hi, friends.

希望你们这周过得不错。

Hope you're ever having a good week.

我一直很喜欢关于市场、股票等可能出现10%回调的讨论。

I've been loving the discussion about potential 10% correction in the market, in stocks, and whatever.

从争论的一方来看，市场肯定会出现回调，这不是会不会的问题。

On the side for arguing, there will be a correction in the market, and it's not an if.

而是什么时候的问题。

It's a when.

它总会发生。

It happens.

我们经常看到这种周期出现。

We see cycles happen all the time.

你确保自己投资组合里有的公司是哪家？

What is a company you're making sure you have in your portfolio?

这是格雷格提出的问题，谢谢格雷格。

And thanks from Greg.

乔恩，你怎么看？

Jon, what do you got?

我特别喜欢这个问题，因为我一直在思考。

I absolutely love this question because I've been thinking about it.

实际上我的投资组合里有不少现金，所以我一直在想，如果市场突然回调10%或更多，我会买什么。

I actually have a decent amount of cash in my portfolio, so I am thinking about what I would buy if there was suddenly a 10% or more correction.

不过我得先说一句，等着回调再投资其实可能挺危险的。

I just wanna preface this by saying waiting for a correction to invest can actually be dangerous.

复利是投资的好朋友，而时间是复利的好朋友。

Compounding is your friend in investing, and time is the friend of compounding.

所以，我们越是等着回调再投资，就越是在削弱自己的长期潜力，因为最好的公司现在就在复利增长，为股东创造长期价值。

So the longer we wait for a correction to actually invest in something, the the more we're actually kind of pulling away from our long term potential because the best companies out there are compounding right now and creating long term shareholder value.

你也想参与其中。

You wanna be in on that.

但直接回答格雷格的问题，我最有信心的企业大多已经在我的投资组合里了。

But to directly answer Greg's question, I mean, my highest conviction businesses are already in my portfolio for for the most part.

所以如果市场出现回调，我一些高信心的持仓大幅下跌的话，是的。

And so if we had a market correction and some of my higher conviction positions fell substantially yeah.

我已经持有不少MercadoLibre的股票，但如果它在市场回调中跌了50%左右，凭我的信心，我真的很难忍住不多买一些。

I mean, I already own a lot of MercadoLibre, but if it was to fall 50% or something in a market correction, I would have a really hard time not buying a lot more of that company given my conviction.

引用沃伦·巴菲特的话，当下黄金雨的时候，你不会想拿个顶针去接。

To quote Warren Buffett, when it rains gold, you don't wanna put out a thimble.

你会想拿个桶。

You wanna bucket.

如果MercadoLibre的股票像下雨一样跌下来，我会拿桶去接。

And I would put out a bucket if MercadoLibre was raining down.

但说到目前不在我投资组合里、我希望加入的公司，AXON Enterprise排在首位，股票代码是AXON。

But, you know, as far as a company that's not in my portfolio right now that I would like it to be, AXON Enterprise is at the top of the list and that is ticker AXON.

这是一家很棒的公司，做执法技术的，有很多途径来增加收入，为股东创造利润。

This is a great company, law enforcement technology, a lot of avenues to grow its revenue base and profit for shareholders.

我以前持有过这家公司。

I used to own this.

我因为估值太高就卖了。

I re I sold on valuation.

从那以后我一直后悔，一直在等一个合适的时机。

I've regretted it ever since, and I've been waiting for an opportune moment.

如果现在有回调，我觉得它会重新回到我的投资组合里。

And if there was a pullback here, I think that it would find its way back into my portfolio.

对于分批建仓，我基本上就是这么做的。

For very averaging into positions, this is kinda what I do.

这有点像Jon那样小口小口地买，我一直在这么做。

It's a close cousin to taking nibbles like Jon does, and and that's what I've been doing.

Jon说得对，等着回调再买是打不赢的仗。

Jon's right that that waiting for corrections is a losing battle.