当政府成为你的共同投资者

政府作为投资伙伴？

The government as an investing partner?

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing 现在开始。

Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing starts now.

欢迎收听 Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing。

Welcome to Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing.

我是主持人 Crowe。

I'm your host, Crowe.

今天和我一起的是长期为 Fool 撰稿的 Matt Frankel 和 Lou Whiteman。

And today, I'm joined by longtime Fool contributors, Matt Frankel and Lou Whiteman.

今天我们要尽量讨论一下政府最近更多参与公司事务的情况下如何投资，同时尽量不触及太多政治敏感话题。

We are going to do our best to talk about investing with the government getting involved more in companies recently without touching too many political rails here.

我们尽量做到不涉及政治立场。

We're trying to do this as much as an apolitical.

我们是投资者。

We are investors.

我们是在努力投资，而现实是，投资者和政府越来越多地介入公司事务。

We are trying to invest, and the reality is investor the government is getting more involved in companies.

我们还会处理听众来信，但首先，我们得从一些非日历季度的财报说起，可以这么说。

We're also gonna hit the mailbag, but first, we're gonna start with some off calendar earnings, I guess you could say.

Forgent Power Solutions，这家公司实际上在Motley Fool的几个隐藏宝石服务中经常被推荐。

Forgent Power solutions, they're actually a frequent recommendation in several, hidden gem services here at The Motley Fool.

在公布2026财年第四季度和全年业绩后，股价上涨了约10%。

Shares are up about 10% after they report reported their fiscal fourth quarter and full 2026 results.

公司实际上超出了华尔街和自身的预期，扭亏为盈，而且坦白说，公布的数字与大多数人认为的电气设备制造商（比如生产开关设备和断路器之类的）不太相称。

The company exceeded both Wall Street and its own expectations actually and swung into profitability and, frankly, put up numbers that aren't really commensurate with what most people would say is an electrical equipment manufacturer, making things like switch gears and circuit breakers and stuff like that.

我的意思是，有很多数字让我印象深刻，我们可以深入探讨。

I mean, were a lot of numbers that stood out to me, and we can get into those.

但各位，你们最关注的是什么？

But guys, what stood out to you the most?

让我们先看一个简单的：营收和利润都超出预期，还上调了指引。

Let's take a take a just a simple ones, the top and bottom line beat with a guidance boost.

而这正是本季度很多财报中缺失的东西。

And that's what's been missing in a lot of earnings reports this season.

你说得对，这个季度差不多结束了，但目前的主题就是一切还好，但未来不确定。

You're right, we're kind of done this season, but the kind of theme for now was things are fine, but we don't know about the future.

Forgent 真的非常关注未来。

Forgencies really, really come about the future.

指引部分很突出，因为你知道，对于这些卖铲子的公司来说，产能和未来增长空间是个大问题。

The guidance part stands out because, you know, for all these picks and shovel companies, capacity, how much you grow from here is a real issue.

不过他们确实还能增长。

Well, they can grow from here.

他们预计 2027 财年同比增长 75%，而那个财年已经开始了。

They're forecasting 75% year over year growth in fiscal twenty seven, which has started.

这还只是中位数预测。

That's just at the midpoint.

Tyler，我还注意到他们上调了每股收益指引，因为他们在六月份进行了一次增发。

Tyler, I also like to see that the EPS guidance was boosted because they did a secondary back in June.

有一部分只是卖现有股份，是他们的私募股权所有者，但有一部分是新增股份，增加了分母。

Some of it was just selling existing shares, they're private equity owners, but some of it was new shares they were adding to the denominator.

所以，如果他们在增加股份数量的同时，每股收益还能超出预期，那真是个好迹象，说明公司，我敢说，真的是全面发力了。

So if they can earn more per share than expected at a time when they are growing the number of shares, that's a real good sign that the company is is is really, dare I say it, firing on all cylinders.

我觉得，超出预期确实是头条新闻，但对我来说，这不是最大的看点。

I mean, the beaten rates was definitely the headline, but to me, that isn't the biggest story.

对我来说，最大的看点是Forgent在第二季度新增的15亿美元订单。

To me, it is the the $1,500,000,000 in bookings Forgent added in the second quarter.

这比去年同期增长了375%。

That is up 375% year over year.

我觉得对于这些AI相关的交易，这些数字有时候变得太大了，你知道，怎么去理解它们呢？

I feel like with some of these AI trades, those numbers just get kinda so big that, you know, how do you put them in context?

但这意味着订单出货比达到了3.3，也就是说Forgent的订单量是其报告营收的3.3倍。

But it represents a book to bill ratio of 3.3, meaning that Forgent's bookings are 3.3 times its revenue that it's reporting.

公司的积压订单现在超过了30亿美元。

The company's backlog is now over $3,000,000,000.

这比上一季度增长了53%。

That's up 53 sequentially.

利润率的提升令人印象深刻。

The margin improvement was impressive.

大多数与Forgent可比的中压开关设备和变压器公司，调整后的EBITDA利润率都在百分之十几到二十之间。

Most most switchgear and transformer companies that are comparable to Forgent report adjusted EBITDA margins in the upper teens.

Forgent报告的利润率略高于24%，而且他们还在花钱增加产能，看起来这么做是有道理的。

Forgent reported a little over 24%, and they're spending money to add capacity, and it it it seems like it's for good reason.

让我印象深刻的一点是，这家公司之前相对不赚钱。

One of the things that, stuck out to me is we have a company that was relatively unprofitable.

但它的增长速度相当惊人。

It's been growing at at rather impressive rates.

根据他们对下一个财年的预测，也就是从现在到明年九月中旬，他们预计2027财年的每股收益在1.25到1.4美元之间，我快速心算了一下，大概是未来收益的25到26倍。

And based on their forecast for the upcoming fiscal year, which will be basically from now until, you know, mid September next year, they're expecting, like, 1.25 to 1.4, or $1.40, excuse me, in earnings per share for fiscal twenty twenty seven, which, you know, just doing a quick back of the math in my head, it's somewhere around, like, 25, 26 times forward earnings.

一家增长这么快的公司，这个估值看起来还算合理，对我来说，这几乎有点像……如果考虑到可能的周期性因素，这个价格其实相对便宜。

A company growing this fast that seems relatively reasonable and it kind of gets almost to me is almost like a little bit of a That's relatively cheap if it's you know, might be some sort of cyclical aspect to it.

我觉得这类财报演示也会带来很多问题，尤其是对于这种“卖铲子”类的公司，因为我们想深入探讨这到底意味着什么，以及，你知道，AI交易到底走到了哪一步，或者说这种“卖铲子”的交易进展如何。

I I think there's a lot of questions that come from these sort of earnings presentations too, especially when it comes to these picks and shovels play because we try to dig into what does it mean and is this, you know, how far has the the AI trade gone, I guess, if you will, the the picks and shovels trade.

那么，各位，你们听完这个之后，心里还有哪些没解答的问题？

So, guys, what were some of the unanswered questions that you had kinda coming out of this?

因为，或者你们

Because or what are

会更具体地关注哪些方面？

you gonna be looking for more specifically?

嗯，他们还需要继续执行。

Well, they still need to execute.

对吧？

Okay?

你知道，好消息是他们确实看到了增长空间，但产能能否足够快地扩张，把那个庞大的积压订单转化成收入呢？

You know, the good news is is that they do see room for growth, but can that capacity expand fast enough to convert that massive backlog into revenue?

他们和其他人一样，仍然面临供应链风险。

They still have the same supply chain risks as everyone else.

他们有很多分包商，需要确保这些分包商能保持正常运转。

They have a lot of subcontractors that they need to, they need to make sure stay in shape.

听着，积压订单是好事，但能不能按时交付这些订单可不一定。

Look, the backlog is great, but delivering on that backlog is not a given.

所以我觉得这是投资者最需要关注的一点。

So I think that's the biggest thing for investors to watch.

对我来说，大多数未解的问题都和积压订单有关。

I mean, most of the unanswered questions to me have to do with the backlog.

除了Lou刚才说的，那15亿美元新增的积压订单是从哪来的？

In in addition to what Lou just said, where did that $1,500,000,000 in added backlog come from?

我们不知道。

We don't know.

如果只是来自一两家超大规模客户，那风险因素和分散在十几个客户之间是完全不同的。

If it's just one or two hyperscalers, it's a completely different risk factor than if it was spread amongst a dozen different customers.

所以对我来说，一个很大的未解问题是，这些积压订单中有多少实际上造成了客户集中风险？

So that that's a big unanswered question to me is where how much of this backlog how much of it is really creating a customer concentration risk?

客户集中度显然是我们一直在和很多这类公司讨论的话题，因为，我是说，在建设AI基础设施方面，我不知道，也许我们需要一个锣声或者某种音效，每次我们提到这个词的时候。

Customer concentration has obviously been something we've been talking a lot about with a lot of these companies because, I mean, there are when it comes to building out AI infrastructure, and I don't know, maybe we need a Gong or some sort of sound effect every single time we say that these days.

就是有这样一种假设。

There's this just kind of this assumption.

就像，对，你有那四五个超大规模云服务商，还有一些私人开发商，但最终都会归结到少数几个客户身上。

It's like, well, yeah, you've got the four or five hyperscalers, and there's some private developers as well, but it's all gonna come down to just a small handful of customers here.

所以就像你说的，如果这些计划有任何变化，那可能会是大事。

So like you said, if there's any change in those plans, that could be a big thing.

对我来说，这里有些让人困惑的地方，就是退一步看，不仅仅是Forgent这家公司，而是我们一直在讨论的关于AI的话题。

For me here, it was something I found a little bit perplexing, and it's kind of like taking a step back and looking, not just Forgent specifically, but kind of the talk we've been having about AI.

今年的业绩指引显示增长在加速，而与此同时，我们听到很多关于AI发展放缓的呼声，以及数据中心开发面临的政治阻力。

It's guidance for the year is suggesting growth that's accelerating at a time when we're hearing all these calls at the same time for slower AI development and political resistance to data center development.

我们开始看到，我不会说暂停，但肯定有些项目因此被推迟。

And we're starting to see, you know, I wouldn't say moratoriums, but certainly projects are getting delayed as a result.

那么，我们怎么调和这种矛盾呢？一边是公司似乎在说，不，一切都好，全速前进，而另一边是我们在媒体或新闻中看到的这些发展情况。

So how do we square that circle of a business that seems to be saying like, nope, all good, all, you know, all full steam ahead, I guess if you will, versus what we're kind of seeing play out in the media or in the the news cycle when it comes to these sort of, developments?

首先，我还没看到有人表示不想继续建设。

Well, one, I haven't seen anyone suggest that they don't want to continue building.

所以我觉得订单还是会继续来的。

So I think the orders are still coming in.

我们看看这会不会影响交付。

We'll see maybe that affects fulfillment.

但另一方面，即使在大家整天谈论数据中心之前，我们就已经迫切需要电网现代化了。

But the other side here too is that we had a massive need for grid modernization even before everyone was talking about data centers all the time.

是的，数据中心需要很多变压器和开关设备，但公用事业公司、建筑商也需要这些东西。

Yes, data centers need a lot of transformers, lot of switch gears, but utilities, builders, they need this stuff too.

疫情期间确实出现了供应短缺，这也是Forgent成立的原因，不是因为数据中心，而是因为所有这些需求都存在。

There was a real lack of supply coming out of, the pandemic that was kind of the reason Forgent was created, not because of data centers, but because all of this demand was out there.

所以这家公司确实从AI热潮中受益，但我觉得他们并不依赖这个。

So this company has definitely benefited from the AI push, but I don't think they're reliant on it.

我觉得投资者要记住的重点是，这家公司不仅仅是数据中心的基础设施供应商。

I think the big investor takeaway here is this company is more than just a data center pick and shovel play.

他们也在满足整个经济中更广泛的需求。

They are fulfilling a need that is out there in the broader economy as well.

我的意思是，让我们稍微深入了解一下他们AI业务的情况。

I mean and and let's unpack what's going on with their AI business just a little bit.

所以他们在第二季度新增的订单，大部分可能是六到十八个月前就已经批准或者分配了资金的项目。

So the orders that they added to their backlog in the second quarter were likely projects that were greenlit or, like, had capital allocated to six to eighteen months ago for for the most part.

这些大部分是2025年做出的资本支出决策。

These were CapEx decisions that were made for the most part in 2025.

甚至Forgent的业绩指引也主要是基于当前的订单积压。

The the even Forgent's guidance is based on its current backlog for the most part.

这并不能真正实时反映行业的情绪。

It's not really a live indicator of sentiment among the industry.

而且，我再说一遍，我只是在说AI业务，不是说电网现代化——你说得完全对，电网现代化确实是个大需求。

And, again, I'm just talking AI, not the it lose absolutely right that grid modern grid modernization is a big need.

Forgent在AI交易中处于非常有利的位置。

Forgent is it it's in a very strong position in the AI trade.

确实，它供应的那些部件目前是整个行业最大的瓶颈。

It is that in the the the parts that it supplies are currently the big constraint in the industry.

所以当你成为瓶颈而不是需求方时，你的客户就会提前下单，而且下单频率比平时更高，只是为了占住名额。

So when you when you are the constraint, not the demand, you are we you're your customers ordering earlier and kind of more often than they would just to hold slots.

另外，就像Lou说的，Fortune还卖给公用事业公司和其他工业企业。

Plus, as Lou said, Fortune sells to utilities, other industrials.

这不仅仅是AI相关的业务。

It's not just an AI trade.

接下来几个季度，我会密切关注我之前提到的那个订单出货比。

I will be watching that book to bill ratio I mentioned over the coming quarters.

这个比率不可能一直保持在3.3。

It can't stay at 3.3 forever.

那根本不现实。

That's just not practical.

积压订单这样指数级增长，很快就会失控。

That exponential growth of a backlog will get out of control real quick.

但只要远高于1，增长故事在这里依然非常强劲。

But as long as it's well above one, the the growth story is still in really good shape here.

说到Lou的观点，我记得大概三年半前，也许更早，有一个OddLots的节目，他们采访了一个开发商和一个电工，他们说我们搞不到开关齿轮。

To to Lou's point, I think I remember it was like an OddLots episode maybe, like, three, three and a half years ago, maybe further back than that now, where they they interviewed, I think it was actually an developer and an electrician talking about like, we can't get switch gears.

他们当时只是在建Chipotle和其他快餐休闲餐厅。

And they were just building, I think, like, Chipotles and other, like, fast casual restaurants.

所以这整体上就是这些东西短缺的故事，不一定只是AI数据中心的故事。

So it it is a story of just a raw shortage of these things overall and not necessarily just an AI data center struck story.

休息之后，我们将深入探讨政府作为投资者与你并肩作战的主题。

Coming up after the break, we're gonna delve into the theme that is the government being an investor alongside you.

你刚发现你的销售团队面临无法完成配额的风险。

You just found out that your sales team is at risk of missing quota.

别慌。

Don't panic.

直接问Rippling AI就行。

Just ask Rippling AI.

因为它是基于你实时的人员和业务数据构建的，Rippling AI 可以从 Rippling 和 Salesforce 中提取指标，生成一个会议就绪的仪表盘，显示配额完成情况、人员编制计划以及按地区划分的月度收入与配额对比。

Since it's built on your real time people and business data, Rippling AI can pull metrics from Rippling and Salesforce into a meeting ready dashboard showing quota attainment, headcount plan, and monthly revenue to quota by region.

几秒钟内，你就能看到配额风险背后的具体原因，并在错过之前解决它。

In seconds, you'll see exactly what's behind your quota risk and fix it before it's missed.

问题得到解答，行动得以执行，危机得以避免。

Question answered, action taken, crisis averted.

当你有关键的业务问题需要答案时，不要只是提交一个工单，然后等上几周才能拿到过时的报告。

When you have critical business questions that need answers, don't just file a ticket and wait weeks for an outdated report.

描述你的需求，让 Rippling 来处理。

Describe what you need and have rippling.

它可以从你实时的人员和业务数据中即时构建出你需要的解决方案。

Build it instantly from your live people and business data.

无论是带有详细图表的仪表盘，还是带有正确触发器、条件和审批的自动化工作流。

Whether it's a dashboard with detailed charts or automated workflows with the right triggers, conditions, and approvals.

准备好掌控你的业务了吗？

Ready to rule your business?

前往 rippling.ai/fool，获取唯一一款能让你全面掌控并跨整个组织执行复杂操作的AI。

Head to rippling.ai/fool to get the only AI built to give you full visibility and take complex actions across your entire organization.

网址是 rippling.ai/fool。

That's rippling.ai/fool.

今天就注册获取独家访问权限，rippling.ai/fool。

Sign up for exclusive access today, rippling.ai/fool.

ELMT集团是一家小型特种材料公司，也从事航空航天和国防部件的制造。

Shares of ELMT Group, a small specialty materials company that does aerospace and defense components manufacturing as well.

该公司昨日股价上涨32%，此前公司宣布计划动用美国战争部4.5亿美元的投资，用公司的话说，来打造一个更安全、垂直整合的供应链。

The stock rose 32% yesterday after the company announced it planned to deploy a $450,000,000 investment from the US Department of War to build, in the company's words, a more secure, vertically integrated supply chain.

即便经过这次上涨，这家公司的市值也才大约6.5亿美元。

Now even after this move, this is a company with like a 650, $650,000,000 market cap.

所以这笔钱数额巨大。

So this is a monumental amount of money.

我们在这里看到的一个反复出现的主题是，投资正越来越多地与政府挂钩。

This is a recurring theme we're seeing here is investing, becoming more and more involved with the government.

在我们深入讨论更广泛的话题之前，Lou，你想提这个，因为你实际上是ELMT集团的投资者。

And before we we'll get into the broader topics here, but Lou, you wanted to bring this one up because you are actually an investor in ELMT Group.

我们在Motley Fool有一些关于这家公司的推荐。

We have some recommendations in The Motley Fool related to this company.

所以在我们稍微退一步之前，比如你看ELMT集团，这是不是改变了你的投资论点，还是这基本上符合预期？

So before we kind of step back here, like when you look at ELMT Group, does this is this like a a thesis changer or is this kind of what was expected?

这很有趣，

This is funny to

因为通常我们会说，你买谣言，卖新闻，但这次感觉反过来了。

me because we'd normally talk about, you know, you buy the rumor, sell the news, and it feels like it worked the other way this time.

Motley Fool的会员之所以能从这32%的涨幅中受益，我们之所以对这家公司感兴趣，是因为这正是我们预料ELMT会做的事情。

The reason that Motley Fool members are benefiting from that 32 jump, the reason we were sort of kind of interested in this company was, is that this is exactly what we thought ELMT was going to do.

ELMT今年早些时候上市，当时就有这个想法，可能不是这个具体的交易，但这家公司已经存在了几十年，管理得相当好，它解读了地缘政治的迹象，然后说，我们想要一种货币来利用机会，所以让我们上市。

ELMT went public earlier this year with sort of this in mind, maybe not this exact deal, but this is a company that's been around for decades, pretty well run, that kind of read the geopolitical tea leaves and said, Well, we want a currency to take advantage of opportunities, so let's go public.

所以是的，这是一个能推动股价的重大事件。

So yes, it's a needle mover.

是的，这对这家公司来说非常重要，但我很惊讶市场会感到意外。

Yes, this is very important for this company, but I'm surprised that the market is surprised.

对我来说，他们上市的全部原因，以及这个投资之所以有趣，就是因为那是他们与美国国防部关系逐步加深的旅程的起点。

To me, again, the whole reason they went public, the whole reason that this was an interesting investment was that that was the start of a journey that was going to end up at some sort of growing relationship with the DOD.

所以我们昨天终于看到了那是什么样子，市场也做出了反应。

So we kind of just finally saw what that looks like yesterday and the market reacted.

我觉得这个话题有点像那种如果我们最后回来讨论，大家都对我们生气，那可能说明我们做对了，因为我们尽量保持非政治性，但这确实有点敏感，我们看到了政府参与公司以及公司投资计划的情况，这在近代历史上我都不记得见过。

I feel like this is one of those topics where if we if we come back at the if we come at the end and everyone's angry out of us, I think we've probably done our job because this is we're trying to stay as apolitical as possible, but we are, this is kind of a little bit of a third rail one where we have seen government participation in companies and in companies investment plans too, in ways I can't remember seeing in recent history.

不过，如果说这完全是特朗普政府特有的现象，那也有点不诚实。

I think it would be a little disingenuous to say that this is all, just purely a Trump administration phenomenon though.

拜登政府也使用了几项主要的资助机制。

The Biden administration used some several major funding mechanisms.

比如《芯片法案》和《通胀削减法案》。

We had like the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act.

这些都是有意向企业提供资金以推动某些政府利益的做法，比如在拜登政府时期，我们可以说是绿色能源和国内制造业。

These were all things that were deliberate in giving money corporations to push certain government interests, whether it be in the Biden administration's case, we could say green energy and domestic manufacturing.

这次我们看到重点放在了，我们姑且称之为国防供应链和关键矿产、关键材料、关键制造上，从国家安全角度来看，这在特朗普政府这里有点像是当月的热门话题。

In this case, we've seen a emphasis on, we'll call it defense supply chains and critical minerals, critical materials, critical manufacturing, that from a national security perspective has been a little bit more of the flavor of the month here with the Trump administration.

而且融资方式也有所不同，拜登政府主要是以前那种拨款或者以债务形式提供的优惠融资利率，而这次我们看到特朗普政府还积极入股，参与股权。

And there's been a difference in the way that it's financed too, where Biden administration was mostly like former grants or favorable financing rates in the form of debt, where this time around, we've seen companies the Trump administration taking an active stake in equity as well.

我们以前真的没见过政府有这种具体的参与方式。

And we haven't really seen this specific type of involvement before in the government.

所以我要问你们两位的是，这种情况是不是很可能就过去了。

So my question to you two is whether this is just likely to go away.

就像我说的，这是不是只是特朗普政府特有的现象，特别是他们那种入股方式，还是说我们可能已经跨过了某种门槛，未来两党政府都可能进行这种共同投资。

Is this just, like I said, a Trump administration phenomenon specifically on taking equity in this specific way they're doing it, or have we perhaps crossed some sort of Rubicon here, and that we can expect this type of co investment from future administrations on both sides of the aisles.

比如，对于公司来说，投资逻辑可能会发生永久性的改变，我们几乎可以称之为永久的政府参与。

Like, how might a permanent change in the investment thesis for companies be with we could almost call it permanent government involvement.

而且，我是说，用一些数字来说明，英特尔那笔交易是上了头条的，但自去年年中以来，我们已经看到了大约30笔不同的股权交易，或者我称之为类似股权的交易，比如优先股之类的。

And, I mean, to put some numbers behind it, I mean, the Intel deal is the one that got the big headlines, but we've seen about 30 different equity or what I would call equity like transactions, you know, like preferred stock or something like that, since the middle of last year.

所以有英特尔、MP材料公司，还有一堆其他稀土公司，以及其他几家。

So there's Intel, MP Materials, and a bunch of other rare earth companies, and several others.

名单很长。

There's a whole long list.

你说得对，区别主要在于交易结构，而不是政府是否参与。

And you're right that the differences are mostly in the structure of the deals rather than the government participating at all.

但有理由相信这是一个永久性的转变，也有一些理由相信这可能会放缓或至少收窄。

But there are reasons to believe that this is a permanent shift, and there are some reasons to believe that this might slow down or at least narrow.

一方面，有国家安全的考量。

So on on one hand, there's the national security angle.

这是特朗普政府进入稀土行业、入股英特尔的原因。

That's the Trump administration's reason for getting into the rare earth business, for getting an Intel stake.

你知道，中国在人工智能竞赛中领先，被视为一种威胁。

You know, China's getting ahead in the AI race as a threat.

比如，中国和其他国家控制着芯片制造供应链的部分环节。

Control China and other countries controlling parts of the chip making supply chain, for example.

这些都是合理的国家安全关切。

Those are legitimate national security concerns.

而且有一个很有说服力的观点是，像我们看到的这种股权交易，比起直接给公司拨款之类的，对纳税人来说更公平。

And there's a solid argument to be made that equity deals like the ones we're seeing are more fair to taxpayers than providing grants to companies and and things to that effect.

而且值得一提的是，我们并不是第一个这么做的。

And and it's also worth noting that we're not the first to do this.

你知道，其他国家，包括我们的一些欧洲盟友，几十年来一直在收购本国企业的股权。

You know, other countries, including several of our European allies, have taken equity stakes in businesses in their countries for decades.

确实有一些政治上的反对声音，主要是担心潜在的利益冲突。

There's some political opposition mainly when it comes to potential conflicts of interest.

问题不一定在于政府持股本身。

It's not necessarily that the government's taking a stake.

而在于，政府一边持有公司股份，一边又在跟这些公司谈合同。

It's that, you know, the government is negotiating contracts with companies that it owns a part of.

所以这方面也有一些合理的担忧。

So there are some legitimate concerns there as well.

所以，就像你说的，我们两边都有道理，我们在这里不是要搞政治。

So, you know, like you said, there's both we're not trying to be political here.

我们两边都说了。

We're telling both sides.

长期来看，我的感觉是这会缩小到非常具体的国家安全和国防领域，但不会进一步扩散。

Long term, my feeling is that this will narrow into a very specific national security and defense focus, but not really spread any further.

对于投资论点来说，这取决于具体的交易和交易条款。

For the investment thesis, it depends on the specific deal and the terms of those deals.

但重要的是，不要因为政府入股就认为企业一定会赢。

But it's important not to assume that a business will be a winner just because the government took a stake.

在其他国家，情况并非总是如此，在这里也不太可能总是如此。

In other countries, that hasn't always been the case, and it's not likely to always be the case here.

你看，我不认为这是政治上的雷区，因为我觉得实际上两党在这方面有更多的共识和意愿。

See, I don't think this is political third rail at all because I think there's actually a lot more consensus and a lot more, you know, willingness on both sides of the aisle to do this.

我觉得一直都有。

I think there always has been.

如果说有什么变化的话，那就是企业的意愿变了。

That what has changed, if anything has changed, is the appetite of companies.

其中一部分是因为我们现在设计这些项目的新方式。

And some of that is kind of the new ways we're designing these.

但你看，回到上世纪70年代，甚至更早的60年代末，政府我记得对洛克希德公司进行了投资或者提供了资金支持。

But look, you go back to 1970s, early 1970s, maybe it was late sixties, the government I think took a stake in Lockheed or provided funding to Lockheed.

还有康瑞尔铁路公司，以及2008年的通用汽车破产案。

You go through Conrail, you go through kind of the 2,008 GM bankruptcies.

政府通常只在危机时期才会介入，主要是因为那时候公司才愿意配合。

This has always been something that the government only did in times of distress, and it mostly because that was the only time the companies wanted to play ball.

并不是政府本身对此态度冷淡。

It wasn't the government, if that was kind of tepid about it.

是的，现在有了国家安全和SKU的新动态，政府也更愿意在股权、优先股等方面采取更灵活的方式。

Yes, we have this new dynamic with national securities and SKUs, and we have more openness from the government to be more creative with equity and preferred and all of this.

我觉得这种情况会持续下去。

I think it continues.

我不认为它会无限扩展，我觉得会有自然的限制，但绝对不只是一届政府的事情。

I don't think it goes as far I think there are natural limits to it, but I definitely don't think this is a one administration thing.

我觉得政府和公司都更愿意合作，共同推进公共利益了。

I think that there is more of a willingness from both government and corporations to find ways to work together to advance common goods.

所以我认为确实有变化，但不是什么剧烈的政治转变。

So I do think there's been a shift here, but I don't think it's a dramatic political shift.

我觉得这更多是公司看待政府援助或政府合作方式上的变化。

I I I think it's just a shift in the way I think companies view government assistance or government partnerships.

我想

I want to

就说到这里吧，你们完全可以回应这些。

leave at this and you guys are more than welcome to respond to this.

不，我们可以继续。

Not, we can move.

但就像马特说的，欧洲国家一直在这么做。

But to Matt's point, European countries have been doing this.

而且，我在法国住过一段时间，所以就拿法国举个例子，基本上就是你说的那种投资工具，他们会入股公司。

And, let me I I lived in France for a while, so I'm just gonna use France as an example, the which is basically like the investment vehicle that you're talking about where they take stakes in companies.

这有点像我们的社会保障管理局，他们不只是持有国债，还能入股公司，有些公司还是公开上市的。

This is like similar to like the Social Security Administration that we have, where instead of just owning treasuries, they are able to take out stakes in corporations, and some of them are publicly traded.

不过我觉得有意思的是，那些被持股的公司，往往有养老金系统或者国家利益背景的大股东，从投资角度看，这些投资不一定是我们所说的那种高回报投资。

And one of the things I do find fascinating about this though is that companies that tend to be owned have significant ownership stake or from, like, the pension systems and these, you know, national interest is from an invest like, us thinking about investments, there aren't necessarily, like, what we consider killer investments.

它们通常分红很高。

They tend to, you know, pay high dividends.

增长空间不大，因为如果最大的股东是养老金，他们追求的是稳定的收入，可能比债券稍微多一点回报。

There's not a heck of a lot of growth because if your largest stakeholder is a pension, they're looking for reliable income and maybe a little bit more upside than just bonds.

所以我觉得值得关注的是，当政府机构大量持股企业时，他们不一定追求投资回报最大化。

And so it would be something I think worth watching is that when government entities take significant stakes in businesses, they aren't necessarily looking to maximize the return on this investment.

他们这么做是出于其他原因。

They're doing it for slightly different reasons.

在很多情况下，他们可能是为了建立关键矿产或关键制造业的供应链。

They may be in a lot of these cases, they're looking to build out supply chains for critical minerals or critical manufacturing.

而且政府可能不会那么坚持要求这些投资达到一定的投资门槛。

And the government may not necessarily be as adamant that those investments meet certain investing hurdles.

他们会说，反正我们也需要这个，就算回报率不高，我们也会投票让你做。

They'll be like, well, we need it anyways, and if it's not a high rate of return, we're vote that you do it anyways.

所以我心里有点觉得，这确实是个事，但如果我是投资者，我现在可能会兴奋，因为就像，哇，大量资金注入，政府是个好伙伴，他们付很多钱，但如果他们开始持有股份并在资本配置方面有发言权，那可能会改变这些企业的投资形象。

And so there is part of me that says, yeah, this is a thing, but if I'm an investor, I may be excited about it now, because it's like, yeah, great injection of cash, you know, government's a good partner, they pay a lot of money, but if they start having a stake and a say in what the businesses do in terms of like capital allocation, it could change the investing profile of these businesses.

是的。

Yes.

确实可能。

It could.

我是说，有各种各样的风险。

I mean, there's all sorts of dangers.

另一个风险是，看看七十年代的空客，他们无法精简，因为他们被四个不同的政府拥有。

The other danger too is, and if you look at Airbus in the seventies where they couldn't streamline because streamline, they were owned by four different governments.

如果你关闭其中一个国家的工厂，除非你关闭所有四个国家的工厂，否则就行不通。

And if you close a plant in any one of them, unless you're gonna close a plant in all four, it just doesn't work.

但话说回来，不是所有的交易都一样，我认为这更是我喜欢公司主动参与的原因。

But here's the thing again, not all deals are the same and I do think there is a more This is why I like companies actually being proactive and getting involved.

我们快速看一下L3 Harris和政府的那笔交易。

Let's look at one real quick, the L3 Harris deal with the government.

基本上，L3 Harris涉及的业务很多。

Basically what was going on there is L3 Harris is involved in a lot of things.

其中之一是制造用于弹药上的发动机。

One of them is making the engines that go into munitions.

政府需要他们提高弹药产量。

The government needs them to ramp up munitions.

L3 Harris对此的看法是，这很好，但这也是我业务中利润率最低的部分。

L3 Harris was looking at that like, that's great, but that's also the lowest margin part of my business.

那我为什么要投入资金去增加那里的产能呢？

So why do I want to invest my capital in adding capacity there?

所以交易就是，把这块业务分拆出去。

So the deal was, well, spin that out.

我们来提供资金。

We'll provide capital.

我们，也就是政府，会提供资金来建设这些，来提升产能，这样就能腾出你们的资金去投资其他地方。

We, the government, will provide capital to build that, to build the capacity, and that frees up your capital to invest elsewhere.

所以这算是一种双赢的做法。

So that was kind of a win win way to go about it.

我觉得确实需要个案分析，但我不认为像七十年代那样一刀切的做法那么简单。

I think you do need to judge these on an individual basis, but I don't think it's as simple as to say it's a one size all approach like the seventies.

我很高兴看到这种个案式的合作，公司之间在谈判，试图弄清楚政府需要什么，以及他们如何能让自己受益。

I think that I'm glad to see it happening in one off ways where companies are negotiating and trying to figure out what the government needs and how they can make it work for them.

我可能有点过于乐观了，Tyler，但我确实认为至少从理论上讲，有办法让这行得通。

I'm being a little Pollyannaish here, Tyler, but I do think there's a way to make this work at least in, you know, on paper.

嗯，在英特尔这个案例中，如果我没记错的话，政府并没有获得投票权。

Well, in in the case of Intel, and correct me if I'm wrong on this, the government didn't take voting rights.

真正让人担心的是，你知道，谈判合同之类的事情。

The real concern is, you know, negotiating contracts and things like that.

但Tyler提到社会保障时提出了一个有趣的观点，因为众所周知，如果什么都不做，社会保障基金将在十年内耗尽。

But Tyler brought up an interesting point when he mentioned Social Security because there's been a it it's common knowledge Social Security is gonna run out of money within ten years if nothing's done.

而且大概有五十种不同的做法。

And there are, like, 50 different things that could be done.

但其中一种，尤其是在当前的政治环境下，他们正在推动的是，把社会保障的储备金投资得更高效一些，而不是仅仅购买国债，现在基本上就是这种情况，然后产生大约百分之三到百分之三点五的回报。

But one of them that that especially in the current political environment they're pushing for is investing the the, Social Security's reserves a little bit more efficiently than just buying treasuries, which is essentially what it's in right now, and generating, you know, three, three and a half percent returns.

相反，你知道，投资整个标普指数，放弃投票权之类的。

Instead, you know, invest in the entire s and p, give up voting rights, things like that.

但是，你知道，把钱投入标普500，那真的需要一个大型的投资工具。

But, you know, put money in the s and p 500 that you'd really need a big investment vehicle.

社会保障储备金大约有两万亿美元。

There's, like, there's about 2,000,000,000 $2,000,000,000,000 in reserves in Social Security.

所以，在英特尔投入一百亿美元甚至都不会有什么影响。

So taking a $10,000,000,000 stake in Intel wouldn't even move the needle.

但他们有很多方式可以走，那会是一种更被动的投资，就像你说的，不是那种孤注一掷的冒险，而是目标是在那笔钱上实现每年百分之七到八的回报，而不是百分之三到四，那会带来很大的不同。

But there's a lot of ways they could go with that, that it would be more of a passive and, like you said, just not an aim swing for the fences investment, but a goal of delivering seven or 8% annualized returns on that money instead of three to 4%, and that would make a very big difference.

所以有很多方式可以走，我并不是说那不会发生。

So there there are a lot of ways that this could go, and I'm not saying that that wouldn't happen.

但就政府直接入股那些它有业务往来的企业而言，我觉得这种情况还是会比较有限的。

But in terms of the government taking direct stakes, in businesses that it does business with, I I think it's gonna remain kind of narrow.

嗯，我们在一些节目里讨论过的一个主题就是，不管怎样，钟摆总是会摆回来的。

Well, one of the themes we have had on some shows we've seen here is kind of whatever the the long swing of the pendulum.

我们一直在聊，从八十年代开始，一切都分拆出去，现在又讲重新整合。

We've been talking about reconsolidation after seg you know, everything spinning off from, like, the eighties on.

现在又提到政府要重新介入，就像七十年代那样，而不是像八十年代、九十年代、两千年代那样搞私有化、私有化。

Now we're talking about getting government involved again, much like in the nineteen seventies, versus basically spending the eighties, nineties, two thousands of privatization, privatization.

所以，就像老话说的，旧的东西又变成新的了。

So as always, everything that is old is new again.

广告之后，我们会来看听众来信。

Coming up after the break, we'll hit the mail bag.

嘿。

Hey.

提醒一下。

A quick reminder.

如果你想发邮件给我们，在节目上提问，请发送到 podcast@fool.com。

If you wanna get an email into us to ask a question on air, email us at podcast@fool.com.

注意，podcast 后面有个 s。

That's podcast with an s.

我也把邮箱地址放在了节目简介里，方便你查看。

I've also left the email in the show description so you can have it there.

今天的问题来自 Helen C。

Today's question comes from Helen c.

她的问题是：现在越来越多的股票日内波动幅度很大，涨跌 10% 或更多。

Question is, it seems more and more stocks have larger daily movements, up or down 10% or more.

作为投资者，你如何保持纪律，专注于长期投资，而不是短期的波段交易？

How do you, as an investor, stay disciplined and focused on the longer term versus the short term swing trade?

针对 Helen 的问题，确实，我们看到了更多这样的情况。

And to Helen's point, yes, we have seen a lot more of this.

对于已经关注到这一点的朋友们，我们收到了很多相关问题，如果你觉得这种情况确实更多了，那确实如此。

It is for those who have been we've gotten a lot of questions about this, and for those of you who feel like, man, it does seem like it's a lot more, it has been a lot more.

刚刚过去的这个季度，单日波动确实更大了。

This this past quarter has been a much more volatile in terms of single day movements.

所以如果你因此感到焦虑，你并不是一个人。

So for those of you who are kind of feeling the anxiety of this, you're not alone here.

各位投资者，你们是怎么在这种情况保持纪律性的？

So guys, as investors, how do you stay disciplined on this sort of stuff?

我可能是个异类，但波动越大，我反而越容易忽略它。

So I might be the weird one here, but the larger the swings, it kind of makes it easier for me to ignore.

它几乎变得有点滑稽，或者让人很难过度关注。

It almost becomes comical or hard hard to get like too focused on.

这反而能缓解我的多疑。

That tends to kind of calm my paranoia.

真正让我担心的是那种持续下跌。

It's those real downturns.

就是那种每天慢慢阴跌，一个月接着一个月的情况。

It's when things just slowly trickle down every day from month after month.

那种情况对我来说更难应对。

That's harder for me to manage.

我其实觉得这也创造了机会，比如，可能有机会在低信心持仓突然上涨时卖出，或者也可能在华尔街不关注的时候出现买入机会。

I actually think this creates opportunities too, both, you know, opportunities maybe to sell lower conviction holdings if they spike up, or also maybe buying opportunities when Wall Street is not focused.

我们之前刚聊过ELMT。

We just talked about ELMT earlier.

这只股票从今年早春才开始公开交易。

The stock's only been public since early spring.

它在几个月内就在12到25美元之间波动，而投资逻辑并没有改变。

It is traded in a range from 12 to $25 in a matter of months with no change to the thesis.

像这样的波动中肯定有机会。

There's gotta be opportunities in swings like that.

我觉得Lou说得很有道理，以前我持有的股票上下波动5%就足以让我去深入调查。

And I mean, Lou makes some really good points there, and it used to be that a 5% swing up or down in a stock I own was really a major cause for further investigation.

现在有时候我甚至都没注意到它们发生，尤其是在我们讨论过的那些AI相关股票上。

Now sometimes I don't even notice when they're happening, especially in the AI adjacent stocks like some of the ones we talked about.

我觉得，最近股价波动变大，可能有几个原因。

I mean, there are several potential explanations for why moves have been larger these days.

总的来说，你知道，现在市场价值更多是建立在未来增长上的，不像以前那样。

The general idea you know, the the big theme is that more of the market's value right now is based on future growth than in years past.

想想那些英伟达啊，超大规模数据中心啊，还有所有那些AI相关的股票。

When you think of, like, the Nvidias, the when you think of the, you know, the hyperscalers, when you think of all the AI trades.

所以，即使大方向没变，这些增长预期稍微变一点，股价就可能受到很大影响。

So so small changes to those growth assumptions can have very big impacts on the stock's prices even though the general thesis stays the same.

所以记住，一两天内涨跌10%通常不代表公司价值真的变了10%，除非有改变基本面的消息。

So just keep in mind, a 10% move up or down in a day or two doesn't usually mean that the business is 10% more or less valuable unless there is thesis changing news accompanying it.

如果10%的波动就让你想跑路，那可能是时候重新考虑你的仓位大小了。

If a 10% position makes you wanna head for the exits, it's a good time to to reevaluate your position sizing.

买股票之前一定要清楚你的投资逻辑，特别是想好两三个会让你放弃的具体原因，而不是看股价动不动。

Always know your investment thesis going into a a stock purchase, especially, you know, two or three specific things that would make you throw in the towel, not whether there or not the stock price moved.

说实话，我现在看自己投资组合变动比以前少多了，这可能是件好事。

And and to be fair, it's probably a good thing that I look at my portfolio movers a lot less than I used to.

Lou也一样，有很多研究表明，你越频繁地查看股票，你的决策质量就越差。

And same with Lou, I mean, there's a lot of research out there that suggests that the more often you check your stocks, the worse your decision making is going to be.

我感觉这种波动水平最终会降下来。

I have a feeling that this level of volatility will eventually go down.

我觉得我们这些经历过的人，回来之后可能会觉得有点无聊，就像‘天哪，这东西一天才波动2%’。

And I think for all of us that have gone through it are gonna come back and almost be a little bit bored where it's like, oh man, this thing only moved 2% in a day.

不过我们拭目以待吧。

Ho But we'll see.

这些事都是随着时间来来去去的。

I I it's all these things kind of come and go with time.

一如既往，节目里的人可能对他们谈论的股票有兴趣，而Motley Fool可能有正式的推荐或反对意见。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以不要仅仅根据你听到的内容买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容都遵循Motley Fool的编辑标准，并且未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告是赞助内容，仅供参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provide for information purposes only.

要查看我们的完整广告披露，请查看我们的节目笔记。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢我们的制作人丹·博伊德以及The Motley Fool团队的其他成员。

Thanks to our producer Dan Boyd and the rest of The Motley Fool team.

代表马特、卢和我自己，感谢大家的收听，我们很快再聊。

For Matt, Lou and myself, thanks for listening and we'll chat again soon.