2026年三大胆预测

三项投资预测，助你开启2026年。

Three investing predictions to get 2026 started.

这里是《富比士金钱》。

This is Motley Fool Money.

欢迎收听《富比士金钱》。

Welcome to Motley Fool Money.

我是泰勒·克罗，今天我邀请到了长期的富比士贡献者马特·弗兰克尔和乔恩·夸斯特。

I'm Tyler Crowe, and today, I'm joined by longtime Fool contributors, Matt Frankel and Jon Quast.

由于假期和一些季节性疾病的困扰，我们三人已经很久没有聚在一起录制这个播客了。

Now between the holidays and some ill time seasonal illnesses, the three of us haven't really been together for for some time to record this podcast.

在我们思考2026年的投资以及未来几年可能的趋势和预测时，我们都有一些时间进行反思。

We've all had some time to reflect as we've been thinking about investing in 2026 and maybe some of the themes and predictions we expect in the coming years.

你知道，现在已经是2026年的第八天了，但在这个时候提出投资预测还不算晚。

You know, we're eight days into 2026, but that's not too late to get some investing predictions in here on time.

所以接下来我们将轮流分享一些我们对明年投资趋势和想法的预测。

So we're gonna go around the horn here and give some of the investing predictions and kind of themes, investings that we're thinking about in the coming year.

现在约翰先来，但在你抛出你那充满争议的热门观点后，马特和我会谈谈我们对预测的信念，然后试着说服你，你知道的，之后再讨论。

Now John's gonna go first, but after you give your, like, your hot take controversial way of, of giving it, Matt and I are gonna go mention, like, how much we believe in prediction and then try to convince us, you know, afterwards.

那么，你今年最重要的头条预测是什么？

So what is, like, your big headline, you know, prediction for the year?

2026年将是谷歌的Gemini抹去ChatGPT市场份额优势的一年。

2026 will be the year that Alphabet's Gemini erases ChatGPT's market share advantage.

换种说法吧。

Let me put it another way.

今年，Gemini的市场份额将与OpenAI的ChatGPT持平。

Gemini will reach market share parity with OpenAI's ChatGPT this year.

我们就在今天开始前刚收到这些数据。

So we got these just before we started today.

我第一次看到时，觉得评分大概六成，因为方向上我认同，但我认为这一年的目标太激进了。

And when I first saw it, I was like at a six out of 10 because I it's directionally, I like it, but I think it's pretty bold for one year.

马特，你怎么看？

Matt, what did you think?

嗯。

Yeah.

我觉得这个预测只有二十分，但原因相同，我认为实际情况比数字显示的要接近。

I'm about a a two out of 10 on this, but for the same reason, I think we're closer than the numbers make it make it sound.

我只是觉得ChatGPT随着时间推移会整体失去市场份额，但我认为要有人真正追上，需要的时间远不止一年。

I just think Chad GPT is gonna lose market share overall over time, but I think it's gonna take much longer than a year for anyone to truly catch up.

好的。

Alright.

所以，约翰，你认为两者将达到完美的市场份额均等。

So, John, perfect market parity between the two.

说服我们。

Convince us.

嗯。

Yeah.

我完全理解这里的犹豫，但请理解ChatGPT正在多么迅速地失去市场份额。

And I totally get the hesitancy here, but just understand how fast ChatGPT is losing market share.

因此，根据SimilarWeb的数据，去年它的市场份额下降了19个百分点，目前降至68%。

So it dropped 19 points during the last year to and now it's at 68% market share according to SimilarWeb.

相比之下，Gemini的市场份额则上升了13个百分点。

And by contrast, Gemini's gained 13 points.

目前它的市场份额为18%。

It's now at 18 market share.

但关键在于，这里真正重要的是势头。

But the thing is, it's really about momentum here.

大部分市场份额的增长发生在年底Alphabet发布Gemini 3之后。

A big chunk of the market share gains came late in the year after Alphabet released Gemini three.

所以这不仅仅是聊天机器人。

So this isn't just the the chatbot.

对吧？

Right?

这还涉及它所依托的技术，这些技术也被用于其广受欢迎的Nano Banana视频创作软件。

This is also the technology that it's popular nano banana video creation software is built on.

因此，当谈到生成式人工智能时，谷歌似乎确实拥有诸多优势。

And so it just seems like when it comes to generative AI, Alphabet really has some advantages here.

它拥有广泛的分发渠道，并与Gmail等热门产品深度整合。

It has distribution, integration with popular products such as Gmail.

它还实现了垂直整合。

It's also vertically integrated.

它自主研发了TPU芯片。

It makes its own TPUs.

它拥有云基础设施，更不用说谷歌的整体业务似乎可以无限期地补贴生成式人工智能的亏损。

It has a cloud infrastructure, not to mention that the overall business from Alphabet can subsidize generative AI losses seemingly indefinitely.

现在，我并不是说Gemini一定会独占整个市场。

Now I'm not necessarily saying that Gemini is gonna have the whole shebang here.

如果明年它的市场份额能达到40%，我认为这已经足以追平，因为ChatGPT也在输给其他竞争对手。

If it got to 40% market share in the coming year, I think that would probably be enough to pull even because ChatGPT is losing ground to other players as well.

其他较小的玩家也在一定程度上失去市场份额，尽管程度较轻。

Smaller players to a lesser extent, but losing ground nonetheless.

听好了。

Listen.

我并不确定这对整个AI生态系统意味着什么。

I have no idea necessarily what this means for the entire AI ecosystem.

我知道OpenAI在未来几年需要大约一千亿美元，才能以它目前烧钱的速度实现其目标。

I know that OpenAI needs, like, a 100,000,000,000 over the next few years to to do what it wants to do at the rate it's burning cash.

如果它正在失去市场份额，那么筹集资金将会变得更加困难。

So, the bag is gonna be harder to secure if it's losing market share.

但这是我的预测。

But that's my prediction.

Gemini将会达到市场份额的均势。

Gemini is going to reach market share parity.

你提到ChatGPT和Gemini是行业领导者，确实如此。

You mentioned that ChatGPT Gemini are the industry leaders, and correctly so.

但在其他主要的AI玩家中，比如Claude、Grok等，你认为哪一个特别可能是潜在的黑马，最终构成威胁？

But of the other major AI players, say Claude, Grok, etcetera, do you see one in particular as, like, a sleeper that could eventually become a threat?

当然。

Absolutely.

我认为这里值得关注的是xAI的Grok，因为它确实也有一些优势。

I think that one to watch here is x AI's Grok because it it does have some advantages as well.

它的所有者埃隆·马斯克，在某种程度上，与阿尔法贝塔有点相似。

Its owner, Elon Musk, is kind of similar to Alphabet, if you will, in a manner of speaking.

听我说完。

Hear me out.

阿尔法贝塔拥有众多不同的业务，它们彼此互补。

Alphabet has all these different businesses, and they do complement each other.

同样，埃隆·马斯克也经营着众多不同的业务。

In the same way, Elon Musk has all of these different businesses that he's running.

他确实让这些业务相互协同，并且会从一个业务中提取技术用于另一个业务。

And really, he does make them complement each other and he does pull technology from one to the other.

因此，马斯克有极大的动力为自动驾驶汽车、机器人，甚至他的脑机接口公司Neuralink开发人工智能。

And so Musk has incredible incentive to build AI for autonomous vehicles, for robotics, for even his human computer interface company, Neuralink.

所以他需要人工智能。

So he needs AI.

他会去追求它。

He will pursue it.

他是世界上最富有的人。

He's the world's richest person.

因此，我不应低估 x AI 在这里抢占市场份额的能力。

And so I wouldn't discount x AI's ability to take some market share here.

好吧，我们在大胆预测方面已经有了一个不错的开端。

Well, we got a good start here in terms of bold predictions.

广告插播后，我会给出一个可能没那么有争议的预测。

And coming up after the break, I'll give one that maybe not as controversial.

我们回来了，继续对2026年进行预测，并探讨我们对来年投资的看法。

And we're back in giving predictions for twenty twenty six and how we're thinking about investing for the coming year.

所以接下来我来说。

So I'm gonna go next.

我之前已经暗示过这一点好几个月了，关于我们关注的股票和我们这里的结尾环节。

And I've been hinting at this one for, like, several months now with our stocks on the radar and and and our ending segment here.

所以我认为这对你和我们的听众来说都不会是惊喜。

So I don't think it's gonna be surprises to you too or to our listeners.

我认为太阳能行业在2026年的表现将翻倍超越市场。

I think the solar industry is going to double the performance of the market of 2026.

我其实已经表露了立场，但你们中有谁真的被这个观点说服了吗？

I've kind of already shown my hand on this, but do I have either of you actually convinced of this idea?

是的。

Yeah.

我对这个观点的认同度大概在十分之七左右。

So I'm at about a seven out of 10 on this one.

我认为今年投资者终于会意识到，太阳能将是应对人工智能电力消耗的短期解决方案，而且可能还会翻倍。

I do think this is the year investors finally realize solar is gonna be the short term solution to AI power consumption, but a double maybe.

是的。

Yeah.

我大概是十分之八的把握，泰勒。

I'm like a eight out of 10 here, Tyler.

你之前已经谈过这个了。

You've talked about this before.

我认为你的论证很有说服力。

I think you've made a good case.

是的。

Yeah.

我看看。

I look.

就像我说的，我可能已经把这个话题讲了四五次了。

I like I said, I've I've probably actually given the spiel, like, four or five times now.

所以对于经常收听我们节目的听众，我表示歉意。

So apologies for the for the, regular listeners who who check-in all the time.

但我对此的全部论点是，我认为很多人把太阳能补贴取消之类的事情看作是行业的丧钟，这种看法是错误的。

But my my whole argument on this is I think a lot of people are discount looking at things like subsidies going away for solar as, like, this death knell for the industry.

但实际上，当你在进行公用事业公司的资本配置决策，或者当你作为一个今天就需要电力的超大规模企业时，还有许多其他因素需要考虑，比如能源来源的类型、是否为碳中和、价格等等，这些并不全是全部因素。

When in reality, there are so many other factors that go into play when you're actually, making those capital allocation decisions at a utility or if you're a hyperscaler that needs power today that, you know, just what type of source and, you know, whether it's carbon free or the pricing and things like that, it's not all of the scope.

我认为如今人们忽视的最重要因素之一，是将新电力快速接入电网的速度。

And I think one of the most important factors that people are discounting these days is the speed to deploy new electrons to the grid.

在这方面，目前太阳能是最快的方式。

And when it comes to that, solar right now is the fastest to do it.

几乎和天然气涡轮机一样快。

Right right around with natural gas turbines.

但在太阳能和天然气之间，市场对新增电力的需求足够大，足以容纳两者共同发展。

But between those two, there is more than enough market share in terms of increased demand to go around.

为了说明我所说的，我举个天然气的例子。

Just to give an example of, like, what I'm talking about here, let me go to the example of natural gas.

通用电气维诺瓦公司可能是美国最大的天然气涡轮机制造商。

GE Vernova is probably America's largest, we'll take a natural gas turbine manufacturer.

他们在今年11月最近一次的财报电话会议上表示，所有新生产的燃气轮机设备都已售罄至2028年，而2029年仅剩不到10吉瓦的产能可供销售。

And they actually said in their most recent conference call, back in November that all of their new gas turbine equipment is sold out through 2028, and they have less than 10 gigawatts of production capacity left for to sale in 2029.

所以我们说的是，如果有人还没有订购他们的燃气轮机用于超大规模部署，那可能需要三到四年的时间。

So we're talking about, you know, three to four years if anyone hasn't already ordered their gas turbines to deploy for their hypersensors.

是的。

Yeah.

要增加天然气产能，还需要更长的时间。

And to increase our production at natural gas, it's gonna take that much longer.

GE Vernova表示，他们需要到2028年才能将年产能从20吉瓦提升至24吉瓦。

GE Vernover is saying that it will take until 2028 for them to increase their total production output from 20 gigawatts to 24 gigawatts per year.

因此，产能提升的速度相对缓慢，这一切都指向太阳能，因为在部署规模上，太阳能可以更快地部署。

So it's it's relatively slow ramp up time, and all this points to solar, which, you know, on a deployment scale, can deploy faster.

产能扩张的速度通常也稍快一些。

The ramp up of production tends to be a little bit faster.

First Solar一直在建设新工厂，其新建工厂的平均周期约为十八到二十四个月。

First Solar has been, building new facilities, and their average turnaround time for a new facility has been something like eighteen months to twenty four months.

比GE Vernova所提到的速度快得多。

So much faster than what GE Vernova is talking about here.

我认为，对于那些迫切需要新增电力的人来说，这将是一个重大的资本决策。

And I think this is gonna be a major, capital decision for people who are desperate to add new electrons.

此外，这些部署最有可能有利的地区，比如许多数据中心的选址，像德克萨斯州这样的地方。

Furthermore, the places where it's going to be more, I I guess you could say favorable, like, if we're looking a lot of these data center deployments, it's in places like Texas.

德克萨斯电网，即ERCOT，在2024年新增的太阳能装机容量比美国其他任何州都多。

And the Texas grid, which is called ERCOT, it actually added the most solar in 2024 and the pro compared to any other state in America.

那里的项目开发成本是全国最低的之一，因为土地相对便宜，且监管环境有利。

And the project development costs there are some of the lowest in the nation compared to anywhere else because of relatively cheap land and, you know, a favorable regulatory environment.

随着AI超大规模部署的持续增加，我认为太阳能将成为电力供应中越来越重要的一部分，以实现这一目标，尽管大家都在谈论核能等其他技术，但我们都知道这些技术至少还需要十年才能落地。

With the increasing deployment of AI hyperscalers still, I think solar is going to be an increasing part of the power supply just to make this happen despite all the talk of things like nuclear and all the other kind of things that I think we all admit are, like, ten years down the road.

至于价格和补贴问题，我对这一切的简短回应是：如果真像大家说的那样，所有人都迫切需要电力，而补贴取消了，我认为太阳能板的价格会重新调整到一个有利可图的水平，这样有没有补贴都无关紧要。

As far as the, you know, pricing and the subsidies thing, my kind of brief response to all of that is if the if everyone's desperate for electrons like they say they are and the subsidies go away, I think that solar panel pricing is just going to reprice up to a profitable level such that it won't matter if subsidies are there or not.

对于任何想要实现这些目标的人来说，它都将具有极强的成本竞争力。

It's going to be very cost competitive for anybody trying to make those sort of things.

这不是一个完美的解决方案，但也没有完美的解决方案。

Not a perfect solution, but there are no perfect solutions.

我认为这将是2026年乃至2027年的解决方案。

And I think this is going to be the solution 2026 and possibly 2027.

据我理解，太阳能要发展得好，就需要电池。

So in my understanding, solar needs batteries in order to do well.

我看到特斯拉正在疯狂部署电池储能系统。

I see that Tesla is deploying battery storage like crazy.

泰勒，我只是很好奇。

Tyler, I'm just curious.

如果你认为太阳能在未来一年真的会爆发，你认为这对电池储能行业意味着什么？

What do you think if solar really does take off here in the coming year, what do you think that means for the battery storage business?

我认为这是必然的，它们将会携手并进。

I think it's a given, and and I think they're gonna walk hand in hand here.

举个例子，我查阅了一些来自加州伯克利的能源部实验室的研究成果。

So just for example, I was looking up some, some work from the Berkeley, it's a Department of Energy lab that's run out of Berkeley, California.

他们进行所有的数据分析。

They then they do all their data studies.

2024年，电池系统，即电网储能系统，成为新增电网容量的第四大来源。

In 2024, battery systems, so grid storage systems, were the fourth largest source of added grid capacity.

仅有的前三名分别是公用事业规模的太阳能、分布式（即我们所说的住宅太阳能）和风能。

And the only ones ahead of it were utility scale solar, distributed or what we call residential solar, and wind power.

天然气所占比例则微乎其微。

Gas was, you know, a fraction of it.

煤炭则完全不存在。

Coal was nonexistent.

解决太阳不照耀时的间歇性问题，以及缓解太阳能波动对电网造成的压力，将是太阳能作为长期能源方案的主要短板。

Smoothing out intermittency, of, you know, when the sun doesn't shine and reducing grid strain that the kind of fluctuation of solar presents will be the key weaknesses for solar power as a long term energy option.

因此，电池储能将与此相伴而行，以解决太阳能方案中的这些关键短板。

So battery storage will kind of go hand in hand here to solve those key weaknesses in the solar, power solution.

所以我们不在此处中断了，马特，你对我们2026年的最后一个预测是什么？

So we're instead of going to break here, Matt, what do you have for us as as the last prediction for 2026?

嗯。

Yeah.

所以，你和我都是房屋建筑商投资者，这并不是什么秘密。

So it's no secret that you and I are both, homebuilder investors.

最近，由于房地产市场低迷持续时间远超专家预期，他们的表现一直落后于市场。

They've underperformed the market recently with the slow real estate marking lasting far longer than experts thought it would.

这并不令人惊讶，但我还是要大胆预测一下：2026年，平均房屋建筑商股票将上涨30%。

It's not a surprise, but I'm gonna go out on a limb here, and I'm gonna say that the average homebuilder stock will rise by 30% in 2026.

虽然我很喜欢房屋建筑商公司，但对这个具体预测，我只给4分（满分10分）。

As much as I do like homebuilder companies, I was actually at a four out of 10 for this specific one.

那你怎么看，约翰？

What about you, John?

我给6分。

I'm at a six out of 10.

我觉得我能做到。

I think I can get there.

马特，再多说点吧。

Tell me more, Matt.

是的。

Yeah.

为明确起见，如果行业情况顺利，涨幅可能远超30%。

So to be clear, it it could be a lot more than 30% if things work out well for the industry.

想想2022年发生了什么吧：利率飙升，住房建筑商股价暴跌，但到了2023年，当行业成功适应了低迷市场时，股价又迅速回升。

I mean, just look at what happened in 2022 when interest rates spiked and homebuilders plummeted, only to rise rapidly in 2023 when the industry really did a great job of adapting to the slow market.

泰勒最看好的绿砖伙伴公司，2023年股价上涨了115%，而这甚至还没算行业里表现最好的。

Tyler's favorite, Green Brick Partners, rose by a 115% in 2023, and that wasn't even close to being the industry's best performer.

因此，我对于这个看涨观点背后有几个理由。

So I have a few reasons beyond my behind my bullish call here.

首先，住房建筑商的股价已被打压到几乎反映负增长预期的水平，许多公司市盈率甚至低至个位数。

For one thing, homebuilders have been beaten down to the point where they're priced essentially for negative growth, with many of them trading for single digit PE multiples.

但展望未来，市场普遍预期今年还将有两到三次降息。

But looking ahead, the median expectation is for two or three more rate cuts this year.

我相信这将推动抵押贷款利率降至6%以下。

I believe this should help push mortgage rates down well below 6%.

他们现在会说，大概是6.2%、6.3%。

That would they'd say, like, 6.2, 6.3 right now.

这可能会让许多观望的购房者进入市场。

That would likely bring more homebuyers off the sidelines.

但与几年前相比，建筑商的融资优势已经没那么大了，那时候他们还能在抵押贷款利率高达8%时提供利率补贴。

And homebuilders don't have as much of a financing advantage as they did a couple years ago, you know, being able to offer rate buy downs when mortgages were 8%.

但在许多市场，包括我所在的市场，购买新房比买同等的二手房更便宜。

But in many markets, including mine, it's cheaper to buy a new home than a comparable existing one.

所以这对买家来说会很有吸引力。

So it it will be attractive to buyers.

建筑商的利润率依然处于历史高位，任何市场复苏都可能带来巨大的利润增长。

Homebuilder margins, they remain historically high, and any market rebound could really result in massive bottom line growth.

这正是我当初提出这一观点的原因，特别是针对2026年。

And this was my contention for this, kind of call and specifically for 2026.

现在我认为，当我们把利率作为住房市场的主要预测指标时，我们可能是在应对过去的问题，至少在当前周期的这个阶段是这样。

Now I think we're kind of fighting the last battle when we look at interest rates as the big predictor for the housing market, at least at this point in the in our cycle.

我认为衡量房屋销售更重要的指标将是失业率和就业市场的整体氛围。

I think the more important metric for home sales will be unemployment and kind of the vibes of the job market.

对吧？

Right?

就像，如果我们都害怕人工智能会动摇我们的工作，谁还愿意在2026年冒险买房呢？

Like, if we're all terrified that AI is gonna shake our job, who's willing to go out a limb and buy a house in 2026?

因此，我对此持怀疑态度——我不认为降息会像过去五年那样对房地产市场产生同样的影响。

And I for that reason, I I'm I'm just I'm I'm skeptical that the rate cuts are going to have the impact on the housing market like they have in the past five years.

是的。

Yeah.

这是个合理的担忧。

And that's a fair concern.

我要说的是，如果我的预测错了，那更可能是因为经济方面的担忧，而不是利率方面的阻力。

And I I will say if my prediction is wrong, it's more likely to be because of economic concerns, than because of interest rate headwinds.

但我仍然认为，有足够多的潜在需求——那些渴望成为房主却一直观望的人，或者那些想卖房却被低利率房贷困住的人。

But I I still think there's enough pent up demand from people who would love to be homeowners, who have build been on the sidelines, or people who would love to be able to sell their house but are stuck into low mortgage rates.

至少在初期，这将引发一波购买热潮，令市场感到意外。

At least initially, this will produce a spike in buying activity that'll surprise the market.

所以我们已经有了三个对市场的预测。

So there we got three predictions for the market.

我们有建筑商领跑市场、太阳能领跑市场，以及阿尔法贝塔基本取代了ChatBeach GPT的王座。

We got homebuilders outpacing the market, solar outpacing the market, and Alphabet basically taking ChatBeach GPT's crown.

广告插播后，我们将具体探讨2026年初我们关注的三只股票。

And after the break, we're gonna get specifically into three stocks that are on our radar, for the beginning here in 2026.

所以，马特、约翰，这是你我第一次在2026年分享我们关注的股票。

So, Matt, John, this was the first time that you and I get to do our stocks on the radar here in 2026.

马特，我们让你来开启今年我们的首支关注股票推荐。

Matt, we're gonna let you start off the year with our our inaugural radar pick.

你关注的是什么？

What are you looking at?

嗯。

Yeah.

我关注的是普洛斯，股票代码为PLD。

I'm looking at ProLogis, ticker symbol PLD.

它接近52周高点，但离其历史最高点仍相去甚远。

It's close to a fifty two week high, but it's still way off its all time peak.

工业房地产一直表现缓慢。

Industrial real estate has been slow.

管理层表示，我们正接近一个转折点的形成，最近的业绩也支持这一观点。

Management has said that we're close to an inflection point forming, and the recent results support that.

首席执行官哈比布·莫加丁甚至表示，租金和入住率增长的市场状况是他40年来见过的最具吸引力的之一。

CEO Habib Mogadim even said that market conditions for rent and occupancy growth are among the most compelling he's seen in forty years.

顺便说一下，他其实是这家公司的联合创始人。

He's actually a cofounder of the company, by the way.

该公司一直在悄然扩展至数据中心领域。

The company has been quietly expanding into data centers.

其规模和财务灵活性使其在满足人工智能基础设施需求方面，相较于竞争对手拥有巨大优势。

Its scale and financial flexibility give it a big advantage over rivals when it comes to being able to meet the demand of AI infrastructure.

因此，随着我们步入2026年，ProLogis是我密切关注的一只股票。

So Prologis is one that I'm really watching closely as we head into 2026.

电子商务，这也是我长期以来一直感兴趣的方向。

E commerce, and and that has been something I've been interested in a long time as well.

对于我来说，我会选择Array Technologies。

For mine, I'm gonna go with Array Technologies.

它的股票代码是ARRY。

The ticker is a r r y.

我想我们三个人在录制节目前还开玩笑来着。

I think we were both we were three of us were joking, before we recorded our show.

正如这里提到的，我想对我们听众来说，我们会不断强调太阳能和住宅建筑类股票，直到士气好转为止。

And as mentioned here, was basically, I think for our listeners, we're gonna keep beating them over the head with solar and home building stocks until morale improves here.

但关于Array Technologies，我刚刚已经阐述了太阳能的前景，所以我在这里进一步强化这个观点：这是一家生产所谓‘跟踪器’的公司。

But so what I'm thinking with Array Technologies, and I've I just laid out the case for solar, so I'm I'm doubling down on this here, is that, they are a company that builds what are basically called trackers.

这是一种设备，能让大型太阳能电池板在一天中跟随太阳的轨迹转动。

This is a a device that allows a utility scale solar panel to track the, you know, trajectory of the sun throughout the day.

这里的理念是，能够跟随太阳轨迹的面板，比那些固定在支架上的面板效率高得多。

And the idea here being is that a panel that follows a trajectory of sun is a much more efficient panel than one that it is on a fixed kind of, bracket, if you will.

这大大减少了在给定空间内产生相似电量所需的太阳能面板数量。

Drastically reduces, the amount of solar panels you need in a given space to produce similar amounts of power.

而未来太阳能安装中，可能会开始成为最昂贵的组成部分之一的就是土地购置成本。

And one of the things that is going to start to become one of the, I guess, you could say most expensive components of a solar installation itself is actually gonna be land acquisition.

因此，如果我们能在每英亩土地上产生更多的电力，这将变得极为珍贵。

So if we can stuff more electron producing capacity out of any given, like, acre of land, that's going to come at a premium.

在公用事业规模的太阳能项目中，你实际上也能从数据中看到，跟踪系统与固定支架系统的对比情况。

And you actually see it in the numbers too, when it comes to utility scale solar, tracking based systems versus, fixed bracket systems.

跟踪系统一直在不断抢占市场份额，而且很难想象我们会大幅倒退，因为每瓦的成本已经大幅下降。

There are it's they've been taking market share over and over and again, and it's really hard to see us going back in any significant way because the costs have come down so much on a per watt basis.

因此，这家公司同样在2023年和2024年因利率等各种原因经历了一些困难。

And so this is a company similarly had some struggles during 2023, 2024 because of various reasons of interest rates or whatever what have you.

但为了进一步强化我对太阳能股票表现更佳的看法，我认为这家公司收入增长极为迅速。

But, you know, to double down on my idea of solar stocks outperforming, I think this is a company that's been growing revenue incredibly fast.

它的利润率正在改善。

Its margins are improving.

它们目前的订单覆盖率非常强劲。

They are pulling in book to bill ratios that are incredibly strong right now.

总的来说，我认为现在正是太阳能的时机。

And overall, I think this is just a time for solar.

我知道这在今天的能源领域可能不是最主流的观点，但这是我想要投资的方向，而且那里有很多价值机会。

I know I it it's kind of a not the most conventional thought in power today, but it's it's where I wanna be, and I think there's a lot of value opportunities there.

约翰，你有什么看法？

John, what do you got?

我还是要坚持家居领域，选择Floor and Decor Holding股票，股票代码为FND。

I'm gonna stick with homes, and we're gonna go with Floor and Decor Holding Stock, ticker symbol f n d.

这是一家家居装修零售商，拥有大型仓储式店铺。

This is a home improvement retailer, very large warehouse style store.

你可以把它想象成一家专门专注于地板产品的家得宝。

So think like kind of a Home Depot except really specializing in in flooring primarily.

这个业务深受专业人士和房主的喜爱。

This this business, it's owned it's loved by pros and homeowners.

它目前还是一个小型连锁，只有大约260家门店，但计划在未来几年内扩展到500家。

It's still small, a small chain with only around 260 stores, but it's looking to get to 500 within the next several years.

我要指出的是，Floor and Decor的股票近年来表现糟糕，因为这个业务的繁荣依赖于现有房屋销售的良好表现。

Now I wanna point out that Floor and Decor stock has performed terribly in recent years because this business thrives when sales of existing homes are doing well.

根据美国全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，现有房屋销售已经低迷了大约两年半。

And according to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales have been in the tank now for about two and a half years.

所以，我实际上希望回到马特之前提到的内容。

So I'm actually hoping going back to what Matt was talking about earlier.

他认为新房销售将大幅增长。

He thinks that new home sales are gonna boom.

我实际上也希望现有房屋销售能回升，但我相信它们最终会复苏。

I'm actually hoping that existing home sales do, But I think that they will eventually recover.

我不认为现有房屋销售会一直低迷下去。

I don't expect that these sales of existing homes will always be in the toilet.

希望到2026年，情况会好转。

Hopefully, in 2026, it'll get better.

当情况改善时，人们又会开始翻新地板了。

And when they do improve, that will get people remodeling their floors again.

关于Floor and Decor，尽管近几年一直面临逆风，但业务仍在增长。

The thing about floor and decor is even though the headwind has been blowing now for a few years, the business is still growing.

它仍然盈利。

It is still profitable.

目前，它的估值处于历史最低水平，仅相当于销售额的1.5倍。

And right now, it trades at its cheapest valuation ever at only one and a half times sales.

所以我认为，今天买入并长期持有是一个低风险的选择。

So I think it's a low risk buy and hold today.

更多太阳能，更多住房。

More solar, more housing.

我觉得我们几乎到了必须把2026年称为‘住房与太阳能展’的地步。

I think we're almost at a point where we might have to actually call this the the housing and solar show for 2026.

这周我们讨论了地板装饰、Array Technologies 和 ProLogis。

So we have floor decor, Array Technologies, and ProLogis for this week.

这就是我们今天全部的时间了。

And that is the all the time we have for today.

Matt，John，感谢你们分享的见解。

Matt, John, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

正如往常一样，节目中的嘉宾可能对其讨论的股票持有利益，而The Motley Fool也可能对这些股票有正式的买入或卖出建议。

As always, people on the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

因此，不要仅凭你听到的内容来买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

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To see our full advertising disclosures, please check out our show notes.

感谢我们的制片人丹·博伊德和富达团队的其他成员。

Thanks to our producer Dan Boyd and the rest of the Motley Fool team.

代表马特、约翰和我本人，感谢收听，我们很快再聊。

For Matt, John, and myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.