字母表、维萨、Roku

显然，你对播客有极佳的品味。

Clearly, you have excellent taste in podcast.

让我告诉你另一个你会喜欢的播客。

So let me tell you about another one that you'll love.

如果你一直在试图面面俱到、拥有所有、对每个人都有所贡献，却感到精疲力尽、烦躁不堪，甚至想把一切烧个干净，那么这个《女人的工作》就是为你准备的。

If you've been trying to do it all, have it all, and be everything to everyone, and you're exhausted, annoyed, and ready to burn it all down, this is woman's work is for you.

厌倦了取悦、证明和表演了吗？

Done pleasing, proving, and performing?

欢迎来到这个节目，在这里我们摒弃期望，搁置‘应该’，向‘理应如此’竖起中指。

Well, welcome to the show where we're shedding expectations, setting aside the shoulds, giving our finger to the supposed tos.

我们正在焚烧旧的剧本，书写属于自己的规则。

We are torching the old playbook and writing our own rules.

你可以在苹果、Spotify 或你收听播客的任何平台找到我们。

You can find us on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

谁主宰世界？

Who runs the world?

你来决定。

You decide.

因为这就是女性的工作。

Because this is Woman's Work.

我们看到阿尔法贝特和维萨走向相反的方向，而且对Roku是牛市还是熊市存在争论。

We've got Alphabet and Visa going in opposite directions, and we've got a bull versus bear debate over Roku.

《摩根士丹利金钱》现在开始。

Motley Fool Money starts now.

我是克里斯·希尔。

I'm Chris Hill.

今天和我一起的是摩根士丹利的高级分析师比尔·曼。

Joining me today, Motley Fool's senior analyst, Bill Mann.

谢谢你的到来。

Thanks for being here.

我们被赶到了办公室的另一个角落。

We've been banished to another part of the office.

我觉得我们并不是被放逐了。

I I like to think we haven't been banished.

这是我们自己主动选择的。

We we we chose this of our own accord.

让我们先谈谈谷歌母公司Alphabet，因为它是今天市场上最主导的话题。

Let's start with Alphabet because it is really the dominant story in the market today.

第三季度的利润和收入低于预期。

Third quarter profits and revenue were lower than expected.

唯一的亮点似乎是谷歌云。

The only silver lining appears to be Google Cloud.

但搜索、YouTube以及其他所有业务的表现都低于预期，今天早上Alphabet的股价下跌了7%。

But search, YouTube, everything else came in lower, and shares of Alphabet down 7% this morning.

这听起来似乎没那么多。

Which doesn't sound like all that much.

但为了让你有个概念，这相当于大约200亿美元瞬间蒸发了。

But just to put things into perspective, that's something on the order of $20,000,000,000 Just poof.

说实话，克里斯，谷歌这个季度并不算糟糕。

I'll be honest, Chris, it wasn't a terrible quarter from Google.

我认为，因为我们觉得这家公司拥有有史以来最好的商业模式，所以我们有时会认为它已经解决了商业周期的问题。

I think because we think of this company as being the best business model ever created, we sometimes give it credit for somehow having sorted out business cycles.

这是他们有史以来第一个广告收入略有下降的季度。

This is the first quarter that they have ever had in which their advertising revenues dropped a little bit.

他们在利润方面严重不及预期。

They missed badly on the bottom line.

他们雇佣了13,000名新员工，你不得不怀疑这13,000名员工到底在做什么。

They hired 13,000 new employees, which you have to wonder what those 13,000 employees were doing.

但谷歌的数字仍然看起来像作弊码。

But the numbers from Google are still they just seem like a cheat code.

本季度的收入高达690亿美元。

$69,000,000,000 in revenues for the quarter.

谢谢你提醒大家这一点。

Thank you for reminding everyone of that.

因为这家公司规模庞大、举足轻重，所以在这样的日子里，人们很容易反应过度。

Because there's you know, there there is a tendency because of the size of the company, because of its importance, there is a tendency on days like this to overreact a little bit.

这并不是一家陷入困境的公司。

This is not a business in trouble.

这个业务确实存在一些问题，你刚才提到了其中一个，就是皮查伊一直在谈论人员规模的问题，他确实谈了很多，即使在最近这个季度，他也谈到他们正在放缓招聘速度。

There are questions about this business, and you you pointed to one of them, which is, you know, for all the talk that, Pichai has been doing about headcount, and he has been doing a lot of it, even with this most recent quarter, talking about how they are slowing the rate of hiring.

但他们仍在招聘。

They're still hiring.

他们仍在增加人员。

They're still adding.

我认为真正值得深究的问题是，你刚才提到的——这些人都在做什么？

I think there are questions that really go to what you put your finger on there in terms of what are all these people doing.

此外，这又是另一个季度。

Also, this was another quarter.

我不知道YouTube的答案是什么。

I don't know what the answer is with YouTube.

当我说这句话时，我的意思是，长期以来一直有人主张将它分拆，也有人提出其他论点。

And when I say that, what I mean is, for a long time, there have been people who have been saying they should spin it off, and there are other people making arguments.

不。

No.

他们需要将其保留在公司内部，原因如下。

They need to keep it in house, and here's why.

我不知道答案是什么。

I don't know what the answer is.

我知道，这确实是其中一个季度，为那些认为YouTube应该被分拆的人提供了论据。

I do know that this was one of those quarters that gave some ammunition to the people arguing that YouTube needs to be spun off?

我实际上认为这个观点很荒谬。

I actually think that that argument is crazy.

我认为谷歌，抱歉，我不能称它为Alphabet。

I that Google I can't call it Alphabet, I'm sorry.

我也是。

Me too.

我知道他们希望我们称它为Alphabet。

I know they want us to call it Alphabet.

我不明白把YouTube拆分出去能解决什么问题，除非是为了让已经能产生现金流的Google能再从YouTube多赚一点钱。

Don't know what would be solved by spinning it out, other than Google, which is already a cash flow machine, would monetize YouTube just a little bit.

Google的问题并不是在现金流生成上遇到任何困难。

Google's issue is not that they're having any trouble at all generating cash flow.

现在，我看看本季度与去年同期相比，收入增长率从41%暴跌至6%，而且他们似乎完全没有控制成本。

Now, I look at where they were this quarter versus the same quarter last year, an unbelievable deceleration in revenue growth from 41% to 6%, and it doesn't look like they have cost control.

我认为，至少部分原因在于涌入的大量员工。

I think, at least partially, that is the huge number of employees who are coming in.

不过，当外部因素发生变化时，你必须给每家公司——即使是大公司——一点宽容的空间。

Now, think that you have to give every company, even really big ones, a little bit of grace when there is a shift in external factors.

他们不可能立即转身。

They can't turn on a dime.

也许他们当初招聘时是基于41%的增长预期，结果却面对6%的现实，但这绝对是他们能够、应该并且一定会查明并解决的问题。

Perhaps they were hiring for a 41 world and they got a 6% world, but it absolutely is something that they can, they should, and they will get to the bottom of.

我不觉得把YouTube拆分出来做财务解决方案比直接锁定它、弄清楚谁该做什么、哪些业务盈利、哪些有潜力，然后其他所有不相关的业务都停止更有意义。

I don't know that going to financial solutions like spinning off YouTube makes any sense any more than just lock it down and figure out who needs to do what and what is profitable, what has potential, and then everything else ought not be done?

如果你在寻找这个业务的看涨信号，我认为你可以指出露丝·波拉特仍然是CFO，并且他们仍在继续回购股票。

If you are looking for a bullish sign with this business, I think you can point to the fact that Ruth Porat is still the CFO, and they continue to buy back stock.

是的。

Yeah.

他们确实还在继续回购股票。

They do continue to buy back stock.

不过，我不认为谷歌字母公司因为回购股票就完全值得称赞，因为他们也向员工发放了大量的激励性股票期权。

Now I don't give Google Alphabet full credit for buying back stock, because they do put out plenty of incentive stock options for employees.

作为股东，我们并没有完全享受到其价值，但也不是毫无所得。

We, as shareholders, don't get full value for it, but we don't get none.

在一个他们产生如此多现金的世界里，他们确实需要为这些资金找到用途。

In a world where they are generating as much cash as they do, they do have to do something with it.

我更倾向于分红。

I would prefer a dividend.

我认为露丝·波拉特会弄清楚谷歌内部发生的事情。

Think that Ruth Porat will get to the bottom of what's going on with Google.

他们并没有突然变得无能，他们的业务中仍有一些部分正在以非常盈利的方式迅猛增长。

They did not become incompetent all of the sudden, and there are parts of their business that are still growing like wildfire in a very profitable way.

另一方面，维萨公司以出色的表现结束了其财年。

Visa, on the other hand, wrapped up its fiscal year in style.

第四季度的利润和收入均高于预期。

Fourth quarter profits and revenue came in higher than expected.

他们的支付交易量有所上升。

Their payment volume was up.

他们提高了股息。

They hiked their dividend.

他们批准了120亿美元的股票回购计划。

They greenlit a $12,000,000,000 share buyback plan.

与阿尔法贝特不同，维萨公司的股价今天上涨了6%。

Unlike Alphabet, shares of Visa are up 6% today.

是的。

Yeah.

维萨公司似乎没收到我们要进入衰退期的通知。

Visa hasn't gotten the memo that we're supposed to be going into a recession.

他们难道不看报纸吗？

I do they not read the papers?

他们不仅没收到这个通知，而且首席执行官阿尔·凯利表示，在为2023年做规划时，他们根本没考虑经济衰退。

Not only have they not gotten that memo, but CEO Al Kelly said when they were doing their planning for 2023, they didn't factor in a recession.

他们基本上说：我们不预期会出现衰退，也不会为此做计划。

They basically said, we're not expecting it, and we are not planning for it.

克里斯，当你想到维萨这样的公司时——我经常思考这个问题——人们问我们哪些公司能抵御通胀，维萨和万事达可能是我所知道的最能抵御通胀的公司之一，因为它们有一个叫做‘抽成率’的东西，大约是每笔交易金额的八个基点。

Chris, when you think about a company like Visa, and I think about this a lot, and people have asked us what types of companies are inflation resistant, Visa and MasterCard may be as inflation resistant as any company that I know of, because they have something that's called a take rate, and it's about eight basis points on the size of a transaction.

对维萨来说，交易金额才是关键。

The transaction size is what matters to Visa.

如果出现通胀，他们从每笔交易中获得的现金回报会比去年更高，仅仅因为同一笔交易的价格略微上涨了。

If there is inflation, they are generating a larger cash return on the transaction than they would have a year ago, simply because that same transaction is slightly more expensive.

我觉得Visa对通胀环境并不特别敏感。

I could see Visa not being particularly sensitive to an inflationary environment.

这并不是说它们完全不受影响，因为如果出现通胀和经济衰退，交易量将会下降。

This is not to argue that they are completely resistant to it, because if there is inflation and if there is a recession, then transaction volume is going to drop.

但这家公司仍然是全球商业的血液循环系统。

But this is a company that is still the circulatory system of global commerce.

从Visa抽身来看，我们现在可以把Visa归入一类重要的大公司，它们表示：不，我们没看到经济衰退。

Zooming out from Visa, you know, now we can put Visa in the camp of big important companies that are saying, no, we're not seeing a recession.

还有另一类重要的大公司及其高管，他们却在说：不。

There is another side where there are big important companies and their executives who are talking about, like, no.

我们看到了。

We are seeing it.

我们正在为此做计划。

We are planning for it.

在这种情况下，投资者该怎么办？

What's an investor to do in these situations?

因为当我看到阿尔·凯利的评论时，这是我首先想到的。

Because that that was my first thought when I saw the comments from Al Kelly.

我想，好吧。

I thought, well, okay.

我想我们可以把Visa归入那些说‘不会’的公司那一边。

I guess we can put Visa on that side of the ledger of companies saying, no.

不会出现衰退。

There's not gonna be a recession.

我们没有为此做计划。

We're not planning for it.

这些人都是认真的，比尔。

These are serious people, Bill.

不像我们。

Unlike us.

嗯，我的意思是，你和我今天早上早些时候还在聊天，我说，你看。

Well, I I mean, you know, I you and I were talking earlier this morning, and I said, look.

你总能找到一些人，每隔三周就上财经电视说天要塌了。

You can always find people who are willing to go on financial television every three weeks and say the sky is falling.

是的。

Yes.

你总能找到一些人，他们永远悲观。

You you can always find people who are just permaboles.

你知道的，不管发生什么，他们总觉得一切都很好。

You know, everything is great all the time no matter what.

杰米·戴蒙不是这样的人。

Jamie Dimon is not one of those people.

他也不是这样的人。

He is not one of those people.

阿尔·凯利也不是这样的人。

Al Kelly is not one of those people.

所以，当你在思考我们是否处于衰退中的问题时？

So so as you think through the question of, are we in a recession?

我们会陷入衰退吗？

Are we going to be in one?

你知道，阿尔·凯利的评论对你的想法有什么影响？

What, you know, what do the comments from Al Kelly do to your thinking?

这可能是你今天听过的最愚蠢的话。

This may seem like the dumbest thing that you've heard today.

我们经常在一起，这大概说明了点什么。

We hang out a lot, so that probably is saying something.

但我们真的有必要对普通投资者或普通美国人是否擅长预测衰退或增长周期发表意见吗？

But do we have to have an opinion on I really know that the average investor or the average American, if you will, is particularly good at predicting recessions or predicting growth cycles.

如果阿尔·凯利和杰米·戴蒙在这里持截然相反的观点，那我们还有多少胜算？

And if Al Kelly and Jamie Dimon are on opposite ends of the spectrum here, then what chance do we have?

所以，在做投资决策时，我真的认为最好的方式不是过分担心我们是否会进入衰退环境或通胀环境，而是简单地假设，如果真的发生了，就像以往每一次衰退一样，我们最终都会挺过去。

So, when you're making investing decisions, I think the I really actually do think that the best way to go about it is not particularly worry about whether we are going into a recessionary environment, an inflationary environment, and simply assume that if it happens, like every other recession, we will come out on the other side.

希尔曼，和你聊天总是很棒。

Hillman, always great talking to you.

谢谢你的到来。

Thanks for being here.

谢谢，克里斯。

Thanks, Chris.

当你没有听这个播客时，你很可能每周至少会花一些时间观看流媒体视频。

When you're not listening to this podcast, chances are you spend at least part of your week watching streaming video.

如果你和很多人一样，你会通过Roku设备观看你最爱的节目。

And if you're like a lot of people, you're streaming your favorite shows through a Roku device.

里基·穆尔维就当前面临严峻广告环境的数字媒体播放器业务展开了一场多空辩论。

Ricky Mulvey has a bull versus bear debate on the digital media player business currently facing a tough advertising landscape.

欢迎来到多空对决。

Welcome to Bear versus Bull.

我们会选择一家公司，邀请一些分析师，抛硬币决定他们支持哪一方。

We find a company, get some analysts, flip a coin to see which side they'll take.

今天，这家公司是Roku。

Today, the company is Roku.

他们销售用于流媒体的数字媒体播放器。

They sell digital media players for streaming.

这同时也是一家广告业务公司。

It's also an advertising business.

它还是一家智能家居摄像头公司。

It's also apparently a smart home camera business.

今年股价已下跌了80%。

Been struggling down 80% this year.

看涨方我们有瑞安·亨德森。

On the bull side, we have Ryan Henderson.

瑞安，很高兴见到你。

Ryan, good to see you.

我也很高兴见到你，里基。

Good to see you too, Ricky.

我期待这场辩论。

I'm looking forward to this.

彼此彼此。

Likewise.

而看空的一方是何塞·纳哈罗。

And taking the bear case is Jose Naharo.

何塞，感谢你今天加入我们。

Jose, thanks for joining us today.

谢谢你邀请我，里基，我非常期待今天的节目。

Thank you for having me, Ricky, and I'm super excited for today's episode.

好的。

Alright.

背景介绍就到这里。

That is enough setup.

我们开始吧。

Let's get it started.

瑞安，你来阐述看多的观点。

Ryan, you've got the bull case.

你有五分钟的时间。

Five minutes is yours.

好的，Roku的看涨观点主要基于其在CTV领域的地位，这是一个前景非常广阔的行业。

Alright, so the Roku bull thesis essentially rests on its position in the CTV space, which is a really promising industry.

他们背后有许多有利因素，尤其是在美国、加拿大和整个北美地区，越来越多的人正在转向流媒体服务。

They've got a lot of tailwinds behind them, and it seems, especially in The US and Canada and North America broadly, more and more people continue to switch to streaming.

我认为，现在美国的渗透率刚刚突破50%。

I believe right now, it just crossed 50% in The U.

美国。

S.

这一趋势非常明确，长期来看可能会趋向100%。

The trend is quite clear that it's probably going to go towards 100% over time.

Roku是美国和加拿大领先的连接电视平台，市场份额远超竞争对手。

And Roku is the leading connected TV platform in The US and Canada by quite a wide margin.

他们也在墨西哥看到非常好的用户增长。

Think they're seeing great adoption in Mexico as well.

但美国和加拿大构成了他们大部分活跃账户。

But The US and Canada make up the majority of their active accounts.

在过去十年中，尤其是在北美地区，正如我提到的，人们似乎正在从传统电视转向流媒体，而Roku成功抓住了这一受众。

Over the last decade, everyone seems to be, especially in North America, as I mentioned, shifting away from linear TVs to streaming, and Roku has really captured the audience.

自2016年以来，Roku的活跃账户总数从1130万增长到6310万。

So since the 2016, Roku's total number of active accounts has gone from 11,300,000 to 63,100,000.

此外，Roku在这些账户中的使用时长也有所增加。

Additionally, Roku has seen an increase in usage among those accounts.

我认为五年前，每个账户平均每天流媒体播放时间约为2.5小时。

I believe five years ago, roughly, they were streaming about two point five hours a day, the average account.

如今，这一数字约为3.5小时，比五年前每天多出约一小时。

Today, it's about 3.5, so about an hour more a day than five years ago.

这里既有用户数量的增长，也有使用参与度的提升。

You've got a combination there of increasing number of users and then increased engagement.

他们还展现出更强的用户变现能力。

They've also shown an ability to better monetize those users as well.

Roku的平均每用户收入较2016年增长了四倍。

Roku's average revenue per user is up 4X from what it was in 2016.

由于用户基数增长、使用频率提升以及 monetization 能力的增强，Roku的平台收入——如今已占其总收入的大部分——在过去五年中增长了近20倍。

Between the growing user base, the increased engagement, and their improved ability to monetize the users, Roku's platform revenue, which now comprises the majority of its top line, has increased nearly 20X in the last five years.

显然，他们一直紧跟这一趋势并从中受益。

Clearly, they have been right there to benefit from this trend.

然而，他们尚未实现大多数投资者预期的运营杠杆或盈利拐点，这是因为他们在硬件方面的投入增加。

However, they haven't quite seen the operating leverage or inflection in profitability that most investors probably would have expected because increases that they've seen on their hardware side.

正如许多人所知，他们基本上是以亏损的价格销售播放器。

As a lot of people know, they're basically selling their players at a loss.

他们以负毛利率销售设备，因为他们相信这些用户的终身价值将超过硬件初始销售的亏损。

They are selling them at a loss, negative gross margins, because they believe the lifetime value of those users is going to exceed the losses on that initial sale of the hardware.

我认为他们是正确的。

I think they're right.

最终，Roku的回报将取决于行业如何演变，以及有多少资金投入流媒体领域。

Ultimately, what Roku's returns are going to come down to is not only how the industry evolves, but how much money gets poured into streaming.

很明显，越来越多的公司正在将更多的投资资金投入到流媒体领域。

It's clear that companies are pouring more and more of their investment dollars into the streaming world.

Netflix甚至在上一季度的财报中强调了这一点。

Netflix even highlighted this on their last quarter release.

他们表示，我们的竞争对手正在大力投资以吸引用户和提升参与度，但打造一个庞大且成功的流媒体业务非常困难。

They said, Our competitors are investing heavily to drive subscribers and engagement, but building a large successful streaming business is hard.

我们估计，所有竞争对手合计在2022年的运营亏损超过100亿美元，而Netflix的年度运营利润则在50亿至60亿美元之间。

We estimate that they're all losing money with combined twenty twenty two operating losses well over $10,000,000,000 versus Netflix's 5,000,000,000 to $6,000,000,000 annual operating profit.

这并不是要为Netflix做宣传，但随着这些资金被投入到流媒体内容中，Roku将从多个方面受益。

This isn't meant to be a Netflix pitch, but as that money gets invested into content for streaming, Roku benefits in a ton of ways.

首先，这一点可能相当明显：可供消费者选择的内容越多，他们花在平台上的时间就越长。

First off, and this one's probably pretty obvious, the more content that's available to consumers, the more time they'll likely spend on the platform.

这意味着广告空间更多，Roku有更多机会将这些用户变现。

That means more room for ads, more time for Roku to monetize those users.

其次，从流媒体市场份额来看，领先的两大服务是Netflix和YouTube。

Secondly, the two leading services in terms of streaming market share are Netflix and YouTube.

据我了解，Roku 与 Netflix 和 YouTube 的原始合同并没有带来多少收入，因为 Netflix 和 YouTube 拥有全部的议价优势。

From what I understand, Roku's original contracts with Netflix and YouTube don't really generate that much revenue, because Netflix and YouTube had all the negotiating leverage.

你需要它们入驻平台。

You needed them on the platform.

它们从这两个领先的流媒体服务中获得的收入微乎其微。

They generate a negligible amount of revenue from their two leading streaming services.

然而，随着行业竞争加剧，HBO、派拉蒙及其他内容提供商推出更多内容，Netflix 和 YouTube 的议价能力被削弱，Roku 终于能与它们达成更好的合同。

However, as the industry gets more competitive and more content comes out from the players of HBO, Paramount, other providers, other suppliers of content, the negotiating power for Netflix and YouTube gets muted, and Roku can finally get better contracts with those.

我认为当 Netflix 推出其广告支持频道时，你很可能会看到这一点。

I think you're probably going to see that when Netflix rolls out its ad supported channel.

我再提另外两点：广告商的转换速度很慢。

The other two I'll mention, advertisers are slow to switch.

目前，我认为去年年底，美国 45% 的成年人。

Right now, I believe at the end of last year, 45% of adults in The U.

S。

S.

18至49岁的人群正在选择流媒体服务。

Ages eighteen -forty nine, were choosing streaming.

广告商在流媒体上的电视广告预算仅占18%。

Only 18% of advertisers' TV ad budgets were on streaming.

这里存在脱节。

There is a disconnect there.

我相信广告商最终会转向流媒体。

I believe advertisers will switch over time.

最后一个，当用户通过Roku平台订阅服务时，Roku会获得收入。

The last one, Roku makes money when someone subscribes to a service through their platform.

随着竞争加剧，我预计用户流失率会上升。

As things get more competitive, I see churn increasing.

由于替代选择增多，人们会更频繁地取消并重新订阅。

People will end and restart their subscription more often as there's more alternatives.

他们因此可能获得更高的推荐收入。

They'll be likely generating greater referral revenue from that.

目前，简而言之，Roku 的年收入约为30亿美元。

Right now, to boil it down, Roku generates about $3,000,000,000 in annual revenue.

在巅峰时期，他们的EBITDA利润率约为17%。

At their peak, they were generating about 17% EBITDA margins.

如果他们能重回这一水平——我认为他们可以做到——那么年EBITDA将达到约5亿美元。

If they can get back to those levels, and I think they can, they'd be generating about $500,000,000 in annual EBITDA.

这假设从今天起没有任何增长。

That assumes no growth from today.

实际上，他们根本不需要做任何事情来实现增长。

Really, they don't have to do anything to grow.

由于所有人都在转向流媒体，自然会有一定的用户增长。

There's going to be some natural adoption just because everyone's shifting to streaming.

这已经非常保守了。

That's real conservative.

他们目前的企业估值为56亿美元。如果你认为他们能达到5亿美元的年EBITDA，那么你支付的估值约为理论利润的11倍。

Their current enterprise value is $5,600,000,000 If you think they can get to $500,000,000 in annual EBITDA, you're paying roughly 11x theoretical profits.

我认为，对于这种在硬件、软件以及人们大量转向的流媒体世界中的完美结合，这个价格非常合理。

I think that's a really fair price to pay for what seems to be this perfect blend between hardware and software and the world where a lot of people are shifting to.

瑞安·亨德森，感谢你提出的看涨观点。

Ryan Henderson, thank you for the bull case.

接下来，我们有何塞·德哈罗带来看跌观点。

Up next, we have Jose Dejaro with the bear case.

谢谢，里基。

Thank you, Ricky.

我想说的是，看跌观点首先在于这家公司试图同时进入多个市场：硬件、平台和原创内容。

I do want say for the bear case is the first thing is the company is trying to hit numerous markets at once, the hardware, the platform and the original content.

而这些市场目前都面临着诸多不利因素影响着公司。

And all these markets have numerous headwinds affecting the company right now.

对于像Roku这样的成长型公司来说，这会给管理层带来巨大压力，可能导致长期错误，尤其是当管理层过于关注短期取悦股东的举措时。

And for a growing company like Roku, it can cause much stress to management, which can lead to long term mistakes, especially if management focuses too much on short term shareholder pleasing moves.

例如，如果我们仔细审视原创内容的市场份额，这需要时间来构建，而且不会立即带来成果。

For example, if we take a closer look at the share of the original content, this takes time to build, and it's not something that's going to provide results.

它实际上可能彻底失败，而且在平台端投入也非常昂贵。

It might actually just flop, and it's also very expensive to do on the platform side.

目前，全球广告领域正面临诸多逆风，这些因素显然会影响罗克公司收入方面的整体数据。

At the moment, there are numerous headwinds in the advertisement side that we're seeing globally that can obviously impact the overall numbers for Roku on the revenue side.

最后，硬件方面容易受到通货膨胀和商品成本上升的影响。

Finally, the hardware side is prone to the to inflation, cost of goods increase.

此外，当前消费者的支出也存在不确定性，这会导致联网电视的采用率下降。

And also consumer spending is in question right now, which would cause a decrease in adoption of connected TV.

硬件市场本身利润率就很低，而公司却仍在持续加码，最近还增加了条形音箱及其他音频解决方案。

The hardware market is also one with very low margin, and the company continues to double down with recent addition to things like soundbars, soundbars and other audio solutions.

国际市场也是如此。

Same with the international market.

增长高度依赖联网电视，但在某些国家，网络基础设施可能尚未完善，或者消费者需求不足。

Growth is heavily dependent on connected TVs, but network infrastructure might not be set up on might not be set up properly in certain international countries or the consumer demand is not there.

除此之外，公司的支出正在大幅增加。

Outside of that, the company is seeing a huge balloon in expenses.

例如，最近一个季度的销售和营销费用同比增加了97%。

For example, sales and marketing increased 97% year over year in the most recent quarter.

研发费用也同比增加了74%，导致过去两个季度出现运营亏损。

Research and development also increased 74% year over year and have caused an income loss from from operations in the last two quarters.

最后我想提到的是，尽管我们看到流媒体使用趋势有所回升，但流媒体时长却在逐季下降。

The final thing I do want to mention is even though we are seeing a kind of a back to trend into streaming, streaming hours are decreasing sequentially.

最近一个季度是公司首次出现流媒体时长下降的几个季度之一。

And the most recent quarter was one of the first few quarters the company saw a decrease in streaming hours.

这一点是投资者应该关注的。

And this is something investors should keep an eye on.

正如我提到的，尽管有些人可能会说，同时进入所有这些市场可能是一个非常看涨的策略，但我认为，同时进入所有市场有时可能会让管理层不堪重负。

So like I mentioned, even though some might say that, hey, hitting all these markets at once might be a very bullish case, I think sometimes hitting all these markets at the same time can kind of overwhelm management.

如果他们做出错误的决策，最终可能会影响公司的整体表现。

And if they make a wrong move, it can overall slip up how the company does at the end.

何塞·纳哈罗，感谢你提出的看空观点。

Jose Naharo, thank you for the bear thesis.

大手笔收购了Quibi的片库。

Big move to acquire the Quibi library.

不过，无论如何，你可以决定在推特上的《富达愚人金钱》节目中，谁今天为Roku的看空与看多观点提供了更好的论据。

But, anyway, you can decide who made the better argument for today's bear versus bull on Roku at at Motley Fool Money on Twitter.

今天的幸运赢家将获得一个可用的Netflix登录账号。

Today's lucky winner will receive a working Netflix login.

刘易斯一家的Netflix家庭账户上还有一个空闲的个人资料。

The Lewis family has an empty profile remaining on their family's Netflix account.

他们愿意将登录信息分享给今天看空与看多对决的冠军。

They're willing to share their login info with today's bear versus bull champion.

享受Netflix原创电影、真人秀节目，以及越来越少的授权内容。

Enjoy Netflix original movies, reality TV shows, and a dwindling selection of licensed content.

这简直是一场娱乐的悖论。

It's an entertainment parabase.

但等等，还有更多。

But wait, there's more.

刘易斯一家通常在他们访问的所有网站上使用相同的密码，这个登录信息很可能也适用于Disney+和HBO Max。

The Lewis family tends to use the same password for all the websites they visit, and this login probably works on Disney plus and HBO Max.

试试在Hulu上登录。

Give it a go on Hulu.

可能会有惊喜。

Might be pleasantly surprised.

如果你赢了，所有这些都可能属于你。

All of this could be yours if you win.

看跌对看涨。

Bear versus Bull.

和往常一样，节目中的人可能对他们讨论的股票有利益关系，而The Motley Fool也可能有正式的买入或卖出建议。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以不要仅凭你听到的内容买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

我是克里斯·希尔。

I'm Chris Hill.

谢谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

我们明天见。

We'll see you tomorrow.