更值得买入：Zscaler还是Workday？

现在谁在市场上表现优异？

Who's beating the market now?

我们有些想法。

We've got ideas.

您正在收听Motley Fool Money节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

欢迎各位傻瓜们。

Welcome, fools.

我是主持人Tim Byers，与我一起的还有长期搭档Austin Charma和David Meyer。

I'm your host, Tim Byers, and with me are longtime fools, Austin Charma and David Meyer.

伙计们，你们怎么样？

Fellas, how are doing?

都喝足了咖啡因。

Both fully caffeinated.

周末过得不错。

Good weekends.

挺好的。

Doing good.

我现在只摄入了一半咖啡因。

I'm only half caffeinated right now.

戴夫，你只有几秒钟时间。

Dave, you got just a few seconds.

赶紧喝完。

Squaff it down.

你得

You gotta

在我们开始前把咖啡因补足。

get fully caffeinated before we roll.

我正在努力。

I'm on it.

半咖啡因总比没咖啡因强。

Half caffeinated is better than uncaffeinated.

我们就这么说吧。

Let's just say that.

好的。

Alright.

今天，我们将讨论Zscaler的2026财年第一季度财报和Workday的2026年第三季度财报。

Today, we'll be talking about, fiscal q one twenty twenty six earnings from Zscaler and q three, 2026 earnings from Workday.

股票代码分别是ZS和WDAY。

Tickers is z s and w d a y.

我将预测这两家公司中哪一家在未来十年表现更佳。

I'm predicting which of these two will be the better performer over the next decade.

我们还将探讨一些心态问题，以及一个我们称之为'心态星期一'的新功能。

We'll also tackle some mindset questions and a potential new feature we're calling mindset Monday.

我们会征求大家的反馈意见。

We are gonna ask for your feedback.

我们想知道你是否需要更多关于心态的内容。

We wanna know if you want more mindset content.

但我们先从财报开始，快速回顾一下上周Zscaler的表现。

But we start with earnings, and let's quickly review what we saw last week starting with Zscaler.

我们看到了一些不错的数据，我希望你们两位都能对此作出反应。

We had some good numbers, and I I want you both to react to these.

Zscaler表示他们在营收和利润两方面都超出了预期。

So Zscaler said they exceeded the, their expectations on both the top and bottom line.

他们说他们大幅超过了所谓的78法则。

They say they blew past what they call rule of 78.

他们完全是在这里瞎编。

They're just making stuff up here.

有个法则

There's a rule

40法则很常见，就是增长与利润率的比较。

of 40 number that is very common, which is like growth compared to to margins.

如果增长率显著高于40超过利润率，这对公司来说是个好兆头。

And then if the growth is materially above 40 over the margin, that's a good sign for the company.

所以他们表示，我们别管40了。

So they say, we're forget about 40.

我们现在达到了78。

We're at 78.

我觉得这有点荒谬，但收入确实同比增长了26%。

I I think that's a little nonsensical, but revenue did grow 26% year over year.

年度经常性收入同比增长26%，他们现在的积压订单是32亿美元的年度经常性收入。

Annual recurring revenue was up 26% year over year, and their backlog now is $3,200,000,000 in annual recurring revenue.

其中有10亿美元用于一些高增长计划，包括他们所称的AI安全。

A billion dollars of that are some very high growth initiatives, including what they are calling AI security.

他们表示其AI安全年度经常性收入已提前三个季度超过了2026财年4亿美元的目标，现在预计将在2026财年前达到5亿美元。

They say their AI security ARR surpassed, their fiscal year twenty twenty six target of $400,000,000 three quarters early, and now they are anticipating they'll hit a half 1,000,000,000 before fiscal twenty twenty six.

所以更多AI意味着更多安全需求，零信任架构，你知道，市场上很多公司都在关注这个，450家企业。

So more AI, more need for security, zero trust, you know, in in the lots of companies in the market for this, 450 enterprises.

戴夫，让我先听听你的看法。

Dave, let me start with you here.

你对Zscaler的这些业绩结果怎么看？

Would you make of these Zscaler results?

有什么让你感到犹豫的吗？

And does anything give you pause?

我没有任何犹豫。

Nothing gives me pause.

在我看来，这家公司表现得非常出色。

This is a company that, in my opinion, is doing very well.

他们所处的市场需要他们的技术实力和产品。

They're in a market that needs its technology prowess, that needs its products.

我们必须记住，网络安全市场一直在增长，因为总有对手在不断发明新技术，像Zscaler这样的公司需要想办法应对。这正是我对该公司感到兴奋的原因——他们不仅拥有多年积累的专业知识，现在还配备了AI工具来增强他们的经验。

We always have to remember in the cybersecurity market, it's always growing because there's always actor on the other side inventing something new that companies like Zscaler need to figure out how to deal with, which is why I'm actually really excited about the company because now that not only do they have their own expertise from all the years that they've been doing this, but now they have AI tools to complement their experience.

所以我对他们所说的内容没有任何顾虑。

So nothing gives me pause about what, what they said.

Asit，我们来谈谈完整的预测吧。

Asit, you know, let's talk about the full forecast here.

他们预测增长将有所放缓。

They are forecasting some slowing growth.

因此，对于2026财年的整体收入增长，预测为22.8%至23.5%的同比增幅。

So overall revenue growth for fiscal year twenty twenty six, the forecast is for 22.8 to 23 and a half percent year over year growth.

这低于26%的水平。

That's down from 26%.

增长放缓是否令你感到担忧？

Any of the slowing growth concern you?

目前仍存在运营亏损。

There are still operating losses here.

还是说你赞同戴夫的观点？

Or are you with Dave?

你觉得这个特别有吸引力吗？

Is is this one that you find particularly compelling?

蒂姆，我想我站在戴夫这边。

I think I'm with Dave, Tim.

小幅度的增长放缓并不让我担心。

The slight slowdown doesn't concern me.

这更多是源于该业务最初的核心理念，即零信任架构的增速略有放缓。

That's more of the original core of this business, which is Zero Trust architecture slowing down a bit.

但作为一个市场，它仍在持续增长。

But that as a market is still growing.

即使这家公司没有发展人工智能业务，零信任领域仍有广阔的发展空间，而Zscaler正是提供这一架构的领军企业之一。

Even if all the AI business hadn't evolved for this company, Zero Trust would be a wide field to play in, and Zscaler is one of the leaders in providing this architecture.

我确实看好人工智能带来的机遇。

I do like the AI opportunity.

你之前提到的那些数字代表着80%的同比增长率。

You know, those numbers that you cited before represent 80% year over year growth.

在讨论人工智能年度经常性收入时，Zscaler很早就指出了我们过度使用人工智能可能带来的潜在风险。

When you talk about that artificial intelligence annualized recurring revenue, Zscaler was very early to call out the potential dangers of all of us using so much artificial intelligence.

他们很早就意识到提示词注入的风险，即恶意行为者可能劫持提示指令。

They were early on the idea of prompt injection that bad actors could take over prompts.

他们很早就意识到，作为当下热门主题的代理程序，未必总是善意的执行者。

They were early on the idea that agents, which are the theme of the day, might not always be good actors.

它们可能会被恶意行为者接管。

They could be taken over by bad actors.

因此，你业务中使用的代理程序可能被劫持，窃取你的数据并转交给他人。

So an agent that you're using in your business could get co opted and take your data and give it to someone else.

通过在这些领域早期布局投资，他们现在正收获由此带来的红利。

So by investing in these and being early in these themes, they're reaping the benefits of that.

我认为Zscaler的首席执行官Jay Chaudhry是个极具远见的人。

And I think Jay Chaudhry, the CEO of Zscaler, is someone with a lot of foresight.

所以我更倾向于信任他和其管理团队的能力，他们总能保持领先优势。

So I tend to index more on his and the management team's capabilities, their ability to stay ahead of the game.

相比之下，我对某些数据上的暂时性放缓并不太在意。

Then I do some, you know, temporary slowdowns in the numbers.

Tim，虽然我希望他们能更盈利些，但只要稍加业务优化并控制股权激励开支，他们离GAAP盈利并不遥远。

I wish they would be a little bit more profitable, Tim, but they're not too far away from from GAAP profits if if they would optimize the business just a bit more and maybe watch that stock based compensation expense.

我喜欢你刚才那种冷战思维，你知道的，就是监视那些特工。

I like that you went very cold war there on the, you know, watching watching the agents.

美国和苏联都在试图策反对方的间谍。

You have the the Americans and the Soviets each trying to turn each other's other spies here.

但你知道吗？

But you know what?

五对间谍。

Five versus spies.

这就是本质。

That is the nature.

我是说，在AI特工领域确实如此。

It I mean, it very much is, in in the, in the AI agent world here.

会有很多恶意行为者盯上这些特工。

You're gonna have a lot of bad actors that are targeting those agents.

让我给你们看点东西，伙计们。

Let me give you something to watch here, fools.

他们在本季度提到的一些事情。

Something they mentioned during the quarter.

目前规模还很小，但如果表现超出预期，就值得关注了。

It's pretty small now, but if there is outperformance here, it'll be something to watch.

Zscaler是众多公司中现在为客户提供按需付费服务的公司之一，他们称之为Zflex计划，该计划总合同价值达1.75亿美元。

Zscaler is among the many companies that is now offering its customers the ability to pay a bucket of money to use any service you want at any time you want it, and they call that program Zflex, and that accounted for a 175,000,000 in total contract value.

在最近一个季度，这一数字环比增长了70%。

In the most recent quarter, that was up 70%, quarter over quarter.

所以这是值得关注的，但让我们转向Workday，它的表现远逊于市场。

So something to watch there, but let's move on to Workday, which has dramatically underperformed the market.

股票代码WDY，年初至今下跌约30%。

Again, ticker w d a y, about 30% year to date.

我来给大家看看本季度的一些数据。

Let me give you some numbers here for the quarter.

非GAAP运营利润率为28.5%。

Non GAAP operating margin of 28 and a half percent.

我认为这相当不错。

I think that's pretty good.

按非GAAP标准计算，整体利润率同比上升了215个基点。

The overall on a non GAAP basis, that margin was up 215 basis points year over year.

这非常出色。

That is very good.

若能持续这一趋势，运营现金流同比增长约45%，达到5.88亿美元。

If that can continue, operating cash flow was up just about 45% year over year to 588,000,000.

当然，还有更多关于AI的内容。

And then, of course, lots more AI.

所有人都在讨论这个话题。

Everybody's talking about this.

Workday特别提到，本季度AI产品贡献了ARR增长超过1.5个百分点，75%的新增交易和35%的客户扩展都与AI相关。

What Workday said specifically is that AI products added more than 1.5 points of ARR growth this quarter, and 75% of net new deals and 35% of all customer expansions were AI related.

订阅收入增长15%，达到22.44亿美元。

Subscription revenue grew 15% to 2,244,000,000.

那么，戴夫，还是从你开始。

So, Dave, starting with you again here.

你对Workday目前的情况怎么看？

What do you make of where Workday is here?

一家大型基于云的企业资源规划公司。

Big cloud based enterprise resource planning company.

这个问题我已经讨论了一年多，那就是企业何时会开始告诉我们AI如何实际转化为收入或收入增长？

So this is something that I've been chatting talking about on, for about a year now, and that is, when are companies gonna start telling us how AI is actually turning into revenue or revenue growth?

而Workday确实给出了答案。

And Workday actually told you.

但我不认为它达到了人们预期的高度。

And I don't think it was as high as people were anticipating.

我们必须记住，这是一家非常大的公司。

Now we have to remember, this is a very big company.

明白吗？

Okay?

考虑到他们在这个行业已经深耕多年，对他们来说这将是渐进式的增长。

So it's gonna be incremental growth from for them given that they have been in this business for a long time.

但我认为这正是令人有些失望的地方。

But I think that's the one thing that sort of is disappointing.

对吧？

Right?

要知道，人工智能很棒。

You know, AI is great.

我们会把它推广给客户，他们会使用并爱上它。

We're gonna put it out to our customers, and they're gonna use it, and they're gonna love it.

老兄，我觉得市场大概是这样想的：虽然你们利润率在上升很好，但我们还是希望能看到你们再稍微多增长一点，尽管你们已经是家大公司了。

Man, I think I think that's the one thing that the market was sort of like, it's great that your margins are going up, but we we kinda wanted to see just a little bit more growth from you even though you're a very big company.

是啊。

Yeah.

我是说，这很公平。

I mean, that's fair.

我是说，这些人就是创立并出售了PeopleSoft的那帮人。

I mean, this is the these are the guys that founded and sold PeopleSoft.

幸好他们把实质上就是PeopleSoft的新云版本命名为Workday，而不是像‘云人’这样的名字，那可就糟透了。

Thankfully, they called their new cloud version of what is effectively PeopleSoft Workday and not something like Cloud People because that would be terrible.

Workday是个更好的名字。

Workday is a better name.

我倒是有点喜欢‘云人’这个名字。

I sort of like Cloud People.

‘云人’做个儿童系列剧会是个好名字，但我觉得不适合企业软件公司。

Cloud People would make a great kids series, but I don't think it's a good name for an enterprise software company.

但你怎么看这个问题，Asit？

But where do you land on this, Asit?

我得说，他们确实提到这是少数几家大型科技公司中，真正没有对政府停摆影响发表任何评论的。

And I'll give you they did say that this is one of not most of the big tech companies really didn't say anything about impacts from the government shutdown.

Workday提到了。

Workday did.

Workday确实如此，因为他们有许多大型政府合同。

Workday did because they have a lot of big cover government contracts.

那么，关于他们因政府停摆面临的阻力，有什么具体影响吗？

So any anything there, like, on the headwinds they faced from, you know, the government shutdown?

有什么让你感到犹豫的地方吗？

Anything give you pause here?

确实有些犹豫，因为短期内业务的加速增长不足以弥补政府业务等任何表现不佳的部分。

A little bit of pause because near term, the acceleration in the business isn't enough to compensate for any one, portion that underperforms such as this government business.

因此，我们需要深入了解这家公司的业务，才能真正理解其人工智能部分。

So we have to look at what this business does to really understand the AI piece.

该公司为企业提供人力资本管理服务，包括人力资源、薪资服务以及ERP规划软件。

This business provides companies with, human capital management, so think HR, payroll services, and also ERP planning software.

即用于运行整个企业的软件，涵盖所有财务工作流程等。

So software to run your entire business, all the finance workflows, etcetera.

它在这方面做得非常出色。

It's very good at what it does.

这是一家能产生非常可观自由现金流的公司。

This is a company that generates really nice free cash flow.

我喜欢它，蒂姆。

I like it, Tim.

在当今时代，这是一家增长缓慢的公司。

It's a slow growth company in this day and age.

成熟型企业。

Mature.

但另一方面，业务中的智能体部分相当有趣，因为如果你是Workday的现有客户，将会获得各种用于自动化工作流程的智能体。

But on the other hand, the agents part of the business is sort of interesting because if you are a current customer of Workday, you are going to get offered all these different agents to automate workflows.

如果你有薪酬模块，这些智能体将帮助你实现部分薪酬处理的自动化。

So if you've got a payroll module, the agents will help you automate part of that payroll.

如果你正在处理公司内部的招聘流程，会有智能体协助新员工的招聘工作。

If you're working on, say, the hiring process within your company, you'll have agents that facilitate the hiring of new employees.

这些都是不错的附加功能，最终会随着每用户平均收入（ARPU）的增长提升公司的整体ARPU。

So these are nice add ons that will eventually increase the average revenue per unit, ARPU of the company when ARPU grows.

我知道这个缩写词念出来听起来很奇怪。

And I know it just sounds such a weird acronym to say out loud.

但当ARPU增长并开始加速时，投资者会感到兴奋。

But when ARPU grows and and start to accelerate, investors get excited.

这家公司被大家视为一家发展缓慢的企业，但它可能会在未来几个季度给我们带来一些惊喜。

So here's a company that everyone looks at as being a sort of a sleepy business, but it could surprise some of us with a bit of upside in the coming quarters.

现在的问题是投资者过于关注业务中疲软的那部分。

The issue now is that investors are so focused on that part of the business that was soft.

他们对AI业务未来一年、三年或五年可能带来的潜力并不那么兴奋。

They're really not that excited about what the potential could be a year or three years or five years from today from the AI piece.

好的。

Alright.

嗯，你引导我们谈到了这里。

Well, you led us there.

那么现在是预测时间了。

So it's prediction time.

我要你在未来十年内给我一个预测。

I want you to give me over the next ten years.

所以我们现在讨论的是十年期限。

So we're we're talking ten years now.

在未来十年里，哪家公司会有更好的表现，给我一个你认为这家公司可能实现的年化回报率范围。

Over the next ten years, which of these is the better outperformer, and give me a range of annualized returns that you think this this company could give you.

两个要点：哪家表现更优，以及你的期望值是多少？

So two things, which is the better outperformer, and what's what's your your hope?

这不必是个精确的预测。

It doesn't have to be a hard prediction.

基于你对这家公司的了解，你期望的年化回报率范围可能是多少。

I think based on what you know about this company, your hope for an the range of annualized returns you might expect.

戴夫，我要从你开始。

And, Dave, I'm gonna start with you.

那么，Zscaler还是Workday？

So Zscaler or Workday?

首先我要说，我认为Asit对Workday业务的评论一针见血。

First of let me say, I think, Asit hit the nail, right on the head with his comments about what Workday is doing.

我认为市场目前对此完全低估了。

I think that is completely underappreciated by the market right now.

你看，它现在的估值水平是其上市以来从未达到过的。

If you look, it is trading at valuations that it's never seen before in its lifespan.

所以你现在得到的是一个非常优质的公司。

So here you are getting a very high quality company.

尽管增长速度可能比人们期望的稍慢，但它运营非常良好，资产负债表极佳，现金流创造能力惊人。

And even though it's growing a little bit slower than maybe people would like, it is very well run, has an amazing balance sheet, amazing cash flow generation.

我认为Workday会表现更优，从这里开始你可能获得10-12%的年化回报，而且波动性要小得多。

I think, I think Workday outperforms, and I think you can probably get somewhere between 1012% annual returns from from here with a lot less volatility.

Zscaler虽然是网络安全领域绝对关键的组成部分，但估值要高得多，而且在业务整体盈利能力方面还有提升空间。

Zscaler, while it is absolutely an essential piece of cybersecurity, trades much higher valuations, and it has some growing to do in terms of the overall profitability of the business.

此外，它还需要大量再投资以确保其技术保持与时俱进。

Plus, it's gonna have to reinvest a lot to make sure that its technology stay current with what's happening.

因此我认为我会倾向于选择Workday，因为Zscaler要实现未来十年10%到12%的年化回报目标可能需要克服更多困难。

So I think then I give the nod to Workday just because it might be a little tougher for Zscaler to do all the things it needs to do to get up into, the 10 to 12% annual, return range for the next decade.

好的。

Alright.

Asit，Zscaler还是Workday，给我一个大概的回报区间。

Asit, Zscaler or Workday, and give me a a rough return range.

我选择Zscaler，预期回报区间较大。

So I'm gonna go with Zscaler with a wide range.

Dave已经阐述了为什么这个区间可能较大的原因。

Dave laid out the case for why that range is probably wide.

我预测他们的年化增长率会在10%到15%之间。

I'm gonna say they're gonna land somewhere between 1015% annualized growth.

我认为他们有能力达到13%到15%的区间。

I think they're capable of getting on up to 13 to 15%.

正如Dave指出的，这并非易事。

It won't be easy as Dave points out.

不过，嘿，当你能提到78法则时，甚至没人知道那是什么意思。

But, hey, when you can call out the rule of 78, no one even knows what that means.

也许几年后他们能达到96法则。

Maybe they'll be up to the rule of 96 in a few years.

干得漂亮。

Well played.

干得漂亮。

Well played.

我想我们都知道它的含义。

I think we know what it means.

自由现金流利润率加上收入增长。

Free cash flow margin plus revenue growth.

话虽如此，Workday的问题在于它某种程度上涉足两个大宗商品业务。

That being said, Workday's issue is that it is sort of in two commodity businesses.

即人力资本管理和企业资源规划。

So human capital management and enterprise resource planning.

因此，它在这个竞争激烈的领域要取得优势会更加困难。

And so those are going be harder for it to get a leg up on this ever competitive space.

但我确实喜欢戴夫所说的。

But I do like what Dave said.

我认为对我来说，这可能是一个9%到12%的增长者。

I think this could be, for me, a 9% to 12% grower.

戴夫说的是10%到12%。

Dave said 10% to 12%.

我们在这点上是一致的。

We are aligned here.

风险较低的Workday可能会是一个非常有趣的投资选择。

Workday with lower risk could be a really interesting investment.

我认为Zscaler，由于那个不断增长的网络安全市场，加上人工智能部分的推动，将会表现优异，但这不是必然的。

I think Zscaler, because of that cybersecurity market that's ever growing, because the AI piece is gonna outperform, but it's not a given.

Workday，别小看它。

Workday, don't sleep on it.

好的。

Alright.

有道理。

Fair enough.

接下来，我们要进行一点‘心态星期一’环节，我们想听听你们对这个傻瓜的评论。

Up next, we do a little mindset Monday, and we want your comments on this fool.

敬请关注。

So stay tuned.

您正在收听的是Motley Fool Money。

You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

好的。

Alright.

我们来聊聊心态。

Let's talk mindset.

Asit和我过去常在Fool 24上做这个。

Asit and I used to do this on Fool 24.

我们想知道你是否想了解更多，不过这次很简单。

We wanna know if you wanna hear more about this, but this is a quick one.

我问Gemini：'根据你所有可获取且最权威的行为金融学资料，列出当前在投资和财富积累方面最常被提及的三个希望或担忧。'

I asked Gemini, looking at all your available and most highly credible sources for behavioral finance, give me the three most cited hopes or concerns when it comes to investing and building wealth right now.

以下是得到的回复，伙计们，我想听听你们对这些的看法。

So here's what came back, guys, and I want your reactions to all of these.

第一点，关于损失厌恶和恐慌性抛售的重大担忧——人们对损失的痛苦感受远强于获利的喜悦。

Number one, a big concern around loss aversion and panic selling, the pain of loss stronger than the pleasure of gain.

我们之前讨论过这个问题。

We've talked about this before.

这里涉及两个主题：过早卖出赢家股票。

The two themes in this one were selling winners way too early.

天啊，我太有同感了。

Boy, do I feel that.

然后是处置效应，我敢肯定戴夫会谈到这个。

And then the disposition effect that I'm pretty sure that Dave's gonna talk about.

在这种情况下，Gemini关注的是持有亏损资产时间过长，但这里有些细微差别。

In this case, Gemini was focusing on holding losers too long, but there's I there there's some wrinkles there.

第二点，这既是希望也是担忧。

Number two, this is both a hope and a concern.

FOMO（错失恐惧症）。

FOMO.

FOMO和恐慌。

FOMO and panic.

从众心理。

The herd mentality.

我觉得我们不需要对此说太多。

I don't think we need to really say too much about that.

FOMO是每个人都有的感受。

FOMO was something that everybody feels.

害怕错过是非常强大的驱动力。

Fear of missing out is a very powerful motivator.

第三点，对过度自信和确认偏误的严重担忧。

And then number three, big concern about overconfidence and confirmation bias.

我认为很多新投资者都会遇到这种情况。

And we see this with a lot of new investors, I think.

投资者不太清楚该做什么，或者对某件事过于确信，于是频繁交易，或者构建过度集中的投资组合，最终导致后悔。

Investors don't particularly know what to do, or they feel so convinced about something that they're just in and they're trading all the time, or they build an over concentrated portfolio, and that ends up causing some regret.

在投资领域，我们都不喜欢后悔的感觉。

And we don't love regret when it comes to investing.

那么，Asit，我想先听听你的看法。

So, Asit, I'm gonna start with you.

你想从哪个方面入手？

What do you wanna tackle here?

基于这三个方面的心态建议。

Your mindset advice based on those three areas.

如果要给出一条心态建议，你会重点强调什么？

If you're gonna give a piece of mindset advice, what do you wanna focus on?

嗯，蒂姆，目前市场似乎有些过度扩张，估值接近历史高点，一切都显得摇摇欲坠。

Well, Tim, since the markets seem to be extended a bit, valuations are near all time highs, everything feels so shaky.

让我先谈谈损失厌恶，因为如果市场从当前点位回调，未来几个月我们中有些人可能会受此影响。

Let me just go to loss aversion because that might come into play for some of us in the coming months if the market retraces from here.

我认为这可能是个误称。

And I think that's maybe a misnomer.

我觉得应该称之为生命确认，而非损失厌恶。

I feel like it should be life affirmation, not loss aversion.

因为这是我们内心非常原始的本能。

Because this is something very primal in us.

对吧？

Right?

当我们建造头顶的庇护所或积累些许财富时，我们想要保护自己的生存能力。

When we build anything like a shelter over our heads or we build up a little bit of money, we wanna protect our ability to survive.

那么，损失厌恶究竟是什么？

So really, what loss aversion is?

这是源自我们内心深处的一种本能，它告诉我们：我不想失去现有的一切，回到比从前更糟糕的境地。

It's something coming from deep within ourselves, which says, I don't want to lose this and go back to a worse position than I was before.

当你考虑头顶的遮风避雨之所时，这种心理完全合理。

Now, that makes a lot of sense when you're thinking about a roof over your head.

但当你思考一项长期增值资产时就不太适用了——比如你投资的企业因所在市场需求旺盛且经营得当，现金流持续增长的情况。

It makes less sense when you are thinking about a long term asset that's going to appreciate because a business that you've invested in is growing its cash flows because they're in a market which hopefully has a lot of demand and the business is well run.

我本可以继续描绘一个非常美好的投资场景。

I could go on to describe a very nice investment scenario.

但长话短说，展望未来可能性的思考方式，正是对抗市场震荡时我们那种快速本能反应的强效解药。

But just to keep this short, thinking in terms of what the future could look like is a very powerful antidote to that very quick and reactive place that we get to when markets start to to shake and and and to quake.

不是故意押韵的，不过就这么说出来了。

Didn't mean to rhyme that, but but there you go.

而且蒂姆，这些年来你一直很擅长指出这一点。

And, Tim, you've been great at pointing this out over the years.

我们的原始脑总是驱使着我们做出即时反应寻求即刻解脱，而这往往是个错误。

Our lizard brain really wants us to just react and and have instant relief, and that's always a mistake.

在刺激与反应之间按下暂停键。

Put a pause between the stimulus and the response.

去散个步吧。

Take a walk.

思考生命的意义以及尘埃落定后一切可能仍在的事实，然后据此做出决定。

Think about life affirmation and and and the fact that things will probably be there when the dust settles, and make your decisions accordingly.

是啊。

Yeah.

我是说，别害怕去想想可能发生的好事。

I mean, don't be afraid to think about the good things that can happen.

那...那并不一定就是坏事。

That's that's not that's not necessarily bad.

好的，戴夫。

Alright, Dave.

你有什么想法？

What do you got here?

你想在心态建议方面关注哪些内容？

What do you wanna focus on for your mindset advice?

首先，我想重申一点，每位投资者理解所有这些偏见极为重要，因为它们

So first of all, I just wanna reconfirm that it is extremely important for every investor to understand all of these biases because they are

确实存在。

real.

是的。

Yeah.

而且它们会影响我们做出的决策。

And they and they impact the decisions that we make.

但我要说的是，给我印象最深、我个人认为最重要的就是处置效应。

But I will I will say this, the one that has stuck with me the most and I personally think is the most important one is the disposition effect.

一了解到这个概念，我就感到非常震撼。

Soon as I learned about it, I was, like, blown away.

简单来说，它指的是当价格上涨时，我们会变得风险厌恶，因为我们不愿承受损失带来的痛苦。

But, basically, what it says is when prices go up, we become risk averse because we don't like the pain of loss.

对吧？

Right?

所以我们不想失去已经拥有的东西。

So we don't want to lose something we have.

而当价格下跌时，我们实际上会变得愿意冒险。

And when prices go down, we actually become risk seekers.

所以我们哇哦。

So we woah.

让我让我加码。

Let me let me double down.

让我让我，你知道的，让我再坚持一下，因为我不愿承认损失确实发生了。

Let me let me, you know, let me hold on because I don't I don't confirm that actually this loss is is happening.

实际上我希望它消失。

I actually want I want it to go away.

对吧？

Right?

没错。

Right.

如果要说我们在The Motley Fool谈论什么核心话题，那就是如何以时间为最大盟友，与优秀企业相伴并通过复利增长。

If we talk about anything at The Motley Fool, we talk about using time as your greatest ally with great companies and compounding.

处置效应一旦中招就会彻底破坏这个策略——因为你过早收割了赢家，又没能把无效资本转移到真正有价值的投资上。

The disposition effect, if you fall prey to it, completely knocks that out because you cut your winners to way too early, and then you don't take capital that's not working for you and put it into something that is.

正是如此。

Right.

你会遭受双重打击。

You get the double whammy.

所以重申一下，这是我个人观点：对于我们这些长期关注优质企业的投资者（比如我们Fool会员）而言，处置效应才是最需要警惕的陷阱。

So, again, this is me personally, but the disposition effect is the thing that long term quality business focused investors like us fools, that's the one that we need to focus on.

是的。

Yeah.

David Gardner将这套策略称为'浇灌花朵，拔除杂草'，长期来看这套方法论在他手中取得了极其显著的成效。

David Gardner calls this watering the flowers and pulling the weeds, and, it it has worked very, very well for him over the course of time.

好的。

Alright.

接下来，我们将为您预览明天的假日股票购物清单。

Up next, we're gonna preview tomorrow your holiday stock shopping list.

您正在收听Motley Full Money节目。

You're listening to Motley Full Money.

好的。

Alright.

周二的节目中，Emily Flippin将与Jason Hall搭档，Asit也将回归，讨论他们最看好的打破常规的假日股票购物清单。

For Tuesday's show, we have Emily Flippin who is joined by Jason Hall, and Asit will be back to talk about their favorite rule breaking stocks to consider for your holiday, stock shopping list.

您已经有清单了吗？

Do you already have a list?

如果有的话，请留言告诉我们您打算买入哪些股票。

If you do, leave us a comment to let us know what you're buying.

如果您发送问题，我们将会附, 我们将在心态星期一环节中重新讨论。

And please let us we will revisit Mindset Mondays if you send us questions.

如果你发送问题给我们，特别是心态方面的问题，我们会予以考虑。

If you send us questions, mindset questions, we will consider them.

你可以在留言板上发布这些问题。

You can post them on the boards.

你也可以直接发送给我。

You can also send them to me.

你可以发送邮件至tbuyers@fool.com。

You could send them to tbuyers@fool.com.

所以请发送邮件至tbeyers@fool.com，并在主题栏注明'心态问题'。

So tbeyers@fool.com with it, and just put mindset question in the, in the subject line.

请告诉我你希望我们为你作为投资者解答什么。

And let me know what it is you would like to have us address for you as an investor.

你有什么担忧？

What are you concerned about?

以上就是今天节目的全部内容。

But that's it for today's show.

感谢戴夫和奥塞特加入我，伙计们。

Thanks to Dave and Osset for for joining me, guys.

非常感激。

Really appreciate it.

一如既往，节目中的人可能对他们谈论的股票有兴趣，而Motley Fool可能会给出正式推荐或反对意见。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

所以不要仅仅根据你听到的内容买卖股票。

So don't buy stocks, buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容均遵循Motley Fool的编辑标准，未经广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告为赞助内容，仅提供信息参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

查看完整的广告披露，请查阅我们的节目说明。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

各位Fool会员，非常感谢你们的参与。

Fools, thanks so much for being here.

我们今天的工程师，一如既往，是丹·博伊德。

Our engineer today, as always, is Dan Boyd.

我们的制作人是安迪。

Our producer on and.

感谢戴夫·迈耶和阿萨·夏尔马作为今天的嘉宾。

Thanks to Dave Meyer and Asa Sharma as our guest today.

我是主持人蒂姆·拜尔斯。

I'm your host, Tim Byers.

傻瓜们，我们很快再见。

See you again soon, fools.

继续前进。

Mool on.