直升机过时了，电动垂直起降飞行器才是未来？

小型飞机即将挑战优步吗？

Are small aircraft about to take on Uber?

Motley Fool Money节目现在开始。

Motley Fool Money starts now.

欢迎收听Motley Fool Money。

Welcome to Motley Fool Money.

我是特拉维斯·霍伊。

I'm Travis Hoy.

与我一起的还有卢·怀特曼和瑞秋·沃伦。

I'm joined by Lou Whiteman and Rachel Warren.

今天我们要讨论的是电动垂直起降飞行器（EVTOL）。

We're gonna talk about EVTOL, electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft today.

但首先，我们想了解一下零售业的最新动态。

But first, we wanna get an update on the retail segment.

黑色星期五——对我来说感觉像是黑色星期五月——现在已经正式结束了。

Black Friday, which felt like Black Friday month to me, is now behind us officially.

我们甚至还经历了网络星期一。

We even had Cyber Monday.

那么，Rachel，这个关键购物季我们有哪些收获？

So, Rachel, what did we learn about this critical shopping season?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，很多分析师都在关注这些数字能告诉我们关于消费者健康状况的信息。

I think, there were a lot of analysts that were watching what these numbers would tell us about the health of the consumer.

还有，你

And, you

要知道，表面数据看起来不错，但深入挖掘会发现更多内容。

know, the headline numbers look good, but there's more when you dig beneath the surface.

首先，美国消费者在黑色星期五的在线消费达到了创纪录的118亿美元。

So to start off, US consumers spent a record $11,800,000,000 online on Black Friday.

这比2024年增长了9.1%。

That was a 9.1% increase from 2024.

但有趣的是，今年近四成消费者购买的商品数量减少了。

But what's interesting is that nearly four in 10 consumers bought fewer items this year.

这显然表明他们在精简购物清单，优先考虑某些购买。

This suggests, obviously, that they're trimming their shopping list, prioritizing certain purchases.

如今全球范围内的黑色星期五已不仅是美国现象，线上销售额达到了790亿美元的新高峰。

Now globally for Black Friday, which is not just a US phenomenon anymore, online sales hit a new peak of $79,000,000,000.

有趣的是，实体店访问情况好坏参半。

What's interesting is that store visits were really a mixed bag.

有数据显示客流量略有下降。

There was some data that showed there was a slight decline in in foot traffic.

消费者在购物时采取了更为审慎的态度。

Consumers are taking a bit more of an intentional approach when they're shopping.

同样值得注意的是，总支出同比有所增长。

Really important to note as well, total spending increased year over year.

但与此同时，产品平均售价上涨了约7%，而每笔交易的购买数量却下降了。

But at the same time, average selling prices for products were up by around 7%, and the number of units per transaction dropped.

这表明，我们在黑色星期五看到的销售增长很大程度上是由通货膨胀推动的，而非购买量的实际增加。

So what this indicates is that a lot of the sales growth that we saw in Black Friday was driven by inflation rather than, you know, increased purchase volume.

还有一点我认为能反映消费者健康状况的是，'先买后付'服务的使用率在黑色星期五同比增长了约9%。

And another thing as well that I think speaks to the health of the consumer, usage of buy now, pay later services was up about 9% year over year on Black Friday.

我们看到当前消费者正在寻求更灵活的支付方式以管理预算，因为钱包吃紧了。

So we're seeing a time where consumers are looking for more flexible payment options to manage their budgets as wallets are constrained.

他们似乎对价格更加敏感，冲动消费减少了。

They seem to be more price sensitive, less impulsive.

我们发现大量使用数字工具和人工智能来比价，为消费者寻找最佳性价比。

We saw a lot of use of digital tools and AI to compare prices and find the best value for shoppers.

总体数据不错，但我认为我们看到的消费者比过去时期花钱谨慎多了。

So overall good numbers, but I think we are seeing a consumer that is spending much more cautious than in past periods.

Lou，我一直在寻找消费者和经济疲软的迹象，因为我觉得，比如失业率开始有点成为问题这类数据点。

Lou, I keep looking for signs that the consumer and the economy are getting weaker because I think, you know, we get these data points like unemployment is kinda starting to be a problem.

通货膨胀本应会对经济产生负面影响，至少在某些领域你会这么认为。

Inflation should be something that impacts the economy, you would think negatively, at least in certain places.

但随后你看到这样的数据，那些头条数字看起来相当稳健。

But then you get numbers like this, and kind of the headline numbers are pretty solid.

这是真实情况吗？

Is is that the real story?

Rachel提到的通胀因素，是否才是这里更重要的关键点，某种程度上掩盖了我们通常能看到的疲软迹象？

Is the inflation piece that Rachel talked about, is that actually the bigger takeaway here that's kinda masking any sort of weakness that we we would normally see?

我不认为疲软被掩盖了。

I don't think the weakness is masked.

我认为Rachel很好地概述了这些数字背后正在发生的情况。

I think Rachel did a good job, kind of outlining kind of what is going on behind these numbers.

表面数据很棒。

Top line is great.

确实，这很了不起。

And, yeah, it was great.

从感恩节到网络星期一销售额达到440亿美元。

44,000,000,000 in sales from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday.

这些数字确实很亮眼，但关键在于销量。

That's that's great numbers, but it's the volume.

关键在于人们的购买量有多大。

It is, you know, it is how much people are buying.

另外根据Adobe的追踪数据，他们发现打折的日常消费品销量有所上升，比如亚马逊也在促销卫生纸，人们也在购买这些商品。

Another thing to put on Adobe that tracks all of this, they found an uptick in kind of discounted consumer staples that Amazon was putting toilet paper on sale too, and people were buying that.

所以这并不一定是节日礼品消费在推动增长。

So it's not necessarily that, you know, gifts and holiday spending is is driving this.

值得注意的是，美国消费增速仅为全球增速的一半。

It's also worth noting US spending grew at just half the pace of global spending.

正如Rachel所说，这已成为一种全球现象。

As Rachel said, this is a global phenomenon now.

但美国消费仅增长了约2.6%。

But US spending was up, like, 2.6%.

而全球增长率达到了5.3%。

Globally, it was 5.3%.

特拉维斯，我们之前讨论过，但这一切看起来仍然像是K型复苏、K型经济，存在贫富分化现象。

Travis, we've talked about it before, but this all still looks like whether it's the k shaped recovery, k shaped economy, there are haves and have nots.

而且有相当一部分具备消费能力的消费者正在积极消费。

And there is a critical mass of consumers that have the means to spend, and they are spending.

但这某种程度上掩盖或分散了我们对另一事实的关注：许多经济困难群体正面临压力，如果这部分人数持续增长，那将是非常糟糕的消息。

But that sort of does mask or kind of distract us from the fact that there is pressure on a lot of have nots, a lot of consumers that are really struggling right now and that if if if that number grows, that's really bad news.

这里存在两种情况可以同时成立。

This one is things two things can be true at once.

既可以有强劲的消费，也可能有很多人感到经济拮据，我认为这正是当前的真实写照。

There can both be robust spending and a lot of people who are feeling the pinch, and I think that's what's going on here.

卢，数据发生了怎样的变化？

Lou, how how has the data changed?

因为我们正在通过同比数据来寻找经济健康或疲软的迹象，但购物模式——我们上周节目中提到，我收到的第一封黑色星期五促销邮件是在10月31日。

Because one of the things we're looking at year over year numbers to look for signs of health or weakness in the economy, but the shopping patterns, we talked last week on the show about my first email that I got about Black Friday came on October 31.

这几乎提前了整整一个月。

That's almost a month in advance.

我们是在12月3日录制的这期节目。

It's we're recording this on December 3.

我已经感觉如果现在距离圣诞节还有三周还没完成购物，我就落后了，十五年前我可不这么觉得。

I'm already feeling like if I'm not done shopping now three weeks before Christmas that I'm behind the eight ball, I I don't think I felt like that or fifteen years ago.

可能是我年纪大了。

Maybe that's me getting older.

但这是否意味着我们把所有节日都提前了？

But is that a piece of this that we've sort of shifted all of these holidays forward?

如果你去Target或Walmart，会发现圣诞节、万圣节这些节日每年都布置得越来越早。

If you go to a Target or a Walmart, you know, there's there seem to be setting Christmas and and Halloween and all these things earlier and earlier every year.

这是否会让数据更难解读，还是我想太多了？

Does that mask or or make the data a little bit harder to read, or am I just reading into things here?

我认为这绝对是需要考虑的因素。

I think you definitely have to factor it in.

我不认为你现在就必须完成购物，但显然，原本一天或几天的活动已经变成了一个季节性的活动。

I I don't think I would say you had to be done by now, but certainly, the a one day event or a few day event has turned into a season.

对吧？

Right?

你知道，我觉得这个季节会持续到12月24日左右。

You know, I I think it goes to December 24 or so.

那么问题在于，你不能错过这个购物季，是吗？

So is the problem, like, you can't miss the season?

我想也许我的感觉是，如果我错过了这个折扣季，到12月10日我就得面对全价季了。

I I guess maybe that's just the feeling that I get is if I if I miss this discount season, I'm gonna be in full price season by the December 10.

不过，Travis，乐观一点看，如果你相信的话——我是说，我有些东西本来还在犹豫要不要买，现在反而有点好奇接下来几周会有什么折扣。

So, Travis, glass half full there, though, is is that if you believe that I mean, I I'm sort of there were things that I was on the fence about buying, and I'm kinda curious what discounts might come in the next few weeks.

所以，你知道，也许这是个不买的理由。

So, you know, I mean, maybe it's a reason not to.

我看看。

Me and look.

就拿一家公司举例吧，American Eagle Outfitters，虽然我不常关注它。

Just to pick on one company, but American Eagle Outfitters, which is not one that I look at a lot.

我觉得这很有意思。

I found it really interesting.

他们第四季度的同店销售额预计增长8%到9%，而毛利率同比下滑。

They had their comp sales forecast for the fourth quarter as up eight to 9% and gross margin down year over year.

在我看来，这概括了我们当前看到的压力与机遇并存的情况。

That to me, I think, sums up what we're seeing now as both the pressure and the opportunity.

我认为这种情况会频繁出现。

I think we're gonna see that a lot.

而且作为投资者，我想我们能挺过这一关。

And, you know, as investors, I think we can weather this.

我仍然认为目前对实体经济的影响比对华尔街更严重。

I think it's still I still think it's worse for Main Street than it is for Wall Street right now.

但就警示信号或对现状的满意度而言，确实有理由感到担忧。

But as far as warning signs or being pleased about what we're seeing, definitely, I see reason to worry.

Rachel，如果要你总结黑色星期五季的关键收获，会是什么？

Rachel, if you have to have one takeaway from Black Friday season, what is it?

我认为我们当前所看到的是消费者真正在优先考虑他们购买决策的时期。

I think what we're looking at right now is a time where, consumers are really prioritizing the purchases they make.

如Lou提到的，消费者正在利用一些重要非自由支配商品的促销活动。

You know, Lou talked about the fact that some of the sales that consumers were taking advantage of were of important nondiscretionary items.

我认为这一现象可能会持续下去。

I think that's something we might continue to see.

另一方面，正如你所谈到的，延长版黑色星期五购物季——不仅限于黑五和网络星期一——确实为拥有稳健商业模式的零售商提供了利用更长销售周期的机会。

You know, the flip side is, as you were talking about, this prolonged Black Friday shopping season that goes just beyond, you know, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, that does give, retailers with robust business models an opportunity to capitalize on a longer sales runway.

因此在消费者比以往更加谨慎的当下，这种模式是否具有优势仍有待观察。

So I think it remains to be seen whether that's something that's going to be advantageous in this period of time where consumers are more cautious than ever.

这绝对是我们未来几个月需要追踪的重点，因为似乎需要获取近乎整个季度的数据才能真正了解全貌。

Definitely something we'll be tracking over the next couple of months because it seems like we need to get almost the full quarter worth of data to really know what the full story is.

稍后回来时，我们将讨论电动汽车通行费的最新进展。

When we come back, we're gonna talk about the developments in EV tolls.

您正在收听的是Motley Fool Money节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

嘿，各位傻瓜们。

Hey, fools.

我们将短暂休息一下，插播今天节目的赞助商信息。

We're gonna take a quick break for a word from our sponsor for today's episode.

房地产。

Real estate.

它世代以来都是财富积累的基石，但也常常成为投资者的噩梦——凌晨三点的维修电话、租户纠纷以及房产税问题。

It has been the cornerstone of wealth building for generations, but it's also often been a major headache for investors with 3AM maintenance calls, tenant disputes, and property taxes.

现在有Fundrise的旗舰基金，一个价值11亿美元的房地产投资组合。

Enter Fundrise's flagship fund, a $1,100,000,000 real estate portfolio.

拥有太阳带社区4000多套独户住宅，330万平方英尺的热门工业设施，全部由经验丰富的团队专业管理。

With more than 4,000 single family homes in the Sunbelt communities, 3,300,000 square feet of in demand industrial facilities, all professionally managed by an experienced team.

旗舰基金汇聚了房地产最具吸引力的特质：长期增值潜力、通胀对冲能力以及超越股市的多元化配置。

The flagship fund taps into some of real estate's most attractive qualities, long term appreciation potential, a hedge against inflation, and diversification beyond the stock market.

一应俱全，样样到位。

Check, check, and check.

这一切都无需复杂的文书工作、巨额首付以及令人心力交瘁的房东职责。

All without the complex paperwork, massive down payments, and soul sucking landlord duties.

访问fundrise.com/fool了解投资组合详情，查看历史回报率，发现房地产投资竟能如此轻松。

Visit fundrise.com/fool to explore the portfolio, check out historical returns, and see just how much easier investing in real estate can be.

投资前请审慎考虑Fundrise旗舰基金的投资目标、风险、费用及开支。

Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Fundrise Flagship Fund before investing.

该信息及其他详情可在基金募集说明书fundraise.com/flagship中查阅。

This and other information can be found in the Fund's prospectus at fundraise.com/flagship.

此为付费广告。

This is a paid advertisement.

欢迎回到Motley Fool Money节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.

让我们深入探讨今年备受关注但尚未盈利的新兴市场——

Let's dig into a new market that's gotten a lot of attention this year, but it's still pre revenue.

电动汽车充电桩领域。

That's EV tolls.

Lou，首先，什么是电动垂直起降飞机？

Lou, first of all, what is an EV toll?

大概给我讲讲这到底是什么，以及我们为什么要关注它。

Kinda give me the baseline of what in the world this is and why we should care.

这就是我们被承诺的飞行汽车，Travis，但它远不如我们当初设想的那样。

So this is the flying cars we were promised, Travis, but it's not nearly what we thought when we drew it up.

而且作为孩子，我不会把

And as kids I'm not gonna pull

这些从我的车道上开走就直接起飞。

these out of my driveway and and just take off.

短期内不可能。

No time soon.

不行。

No.

所以它其实是电动垂直起降飞机的简称。

So that it it is short for electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft.

它们看起来像带有机翼的小型飞机，这为稳定性提供了保障，这一点非常重要。

And what that they look like small airplanes with wings for stability, and that's really important.

但它们能像直升机一样垂直起降。

But they can do vertical takeoffs and landings like a helicopter.

许多这类飞机在机翼上装有可调节的螺旋桨。

A lot of them have the, have the propellers on their wings that are shiftable.

这项技术在军事领域已有很长历史，现在正逐渐进入更商业化的领域。

This technology has been around a long time in the in the military space, and they are kind of coming now to the more commercial space.

这一直是个热门领域。

This has been hot.

仅在美国和西欧快速统计，过去五年左右就有至少六家公司通过SPAC方式上市，致力于实现这一目标。

There were just quickly counting in The US and, Western Europe alone, there were at least a half dozen companies that went public, all via SPACs, pursuing this goal in the last five years or so.

还有中国的竞争者参与其中。

There are Chinese competitors.

波音、巴西航空工业等一些大型航空航天公司也涉足其中。

There are Boeing and Embraer and some of the big aerospace companies have been involved.

已经出现了一些失败案例，但领先企业即将获得FAA批准，预计明年就能实现飞行。

There's already been some failures too, but the leaders are getting near FAA approval, should be flying next year.

我有很多疑问。

I have a lot of questions.

我对此充满期待，但这是真实的，即将到来，我们很快就能在空中看到它们。

I have a lot of excitement, but this is real, and this is coming, and we're gonna see these in the air before we know it.

我们似乎已经超越了那种贸易展览演示的阶段，更接近你提到的FAA审批环节。

We've moved, it seems, past the phase of these kind of trade show demonstrations closer to you brought up the FAA.

我想了解我们现在处于发展周期的哪个阶段，因为看起来2025年我们还没完全迎来转折点，让你我可能有机会体验这种交通工具，但已经不远了。

I I'm I wanna get a feel for where we are in that development cycle because it does seem like 2025, we're we're not turn we're turning that corner quite yet to you and I maybe being able to get into one of these, but that's not far away.

那么从原型到实际商业运营，我们现在处于这个曲线的哪个位置？

So where are we on the from prototype to actual commercial operations, where are we on that curve?

这取决于具体公司，但该领域的两家领军企业——Joby和Archer——是我会重点关注的。

So that depends on the company, but the two leaders in the space, and Joby and Archer would be the two I'd look at.

它们都计划在2026年——可能是2026年初——获得批准。

They are both on track to win approval in 2026, maybe early twenty twenty six.

在世界其他地区，实际上已经有过载客飞行的案例。

Elsewhere in the world, they've actually flown passengers.

所以，你知道，这不仅仅是美国的故事。

So, you know, it's not just a US story.

其他公司则着眼于本年代末期。

Others are looking at at the end of the decade.

因此，这里存在一个广泛的时间跨度。

So they it there's a broad spectrum here.

但是，是的，我认为到明年夏天，我们将在美国看到这些飞行器升空。

But, yeah, we are going to see these in the air in The United States, I think, by next summer.

你可能已经回答了一部分，但我确实想知道作为投资者我们应该关注哪些参与者，以及我们应该关注哪些因素？

You maybe answered some of this, but I did wanna know who the players are that as investors we should keep an eye on and maybe what sort of factors we should be looking at?

是他们的生产能力吗？

Is it their capacity?

还是他们的合作伙伴关系？

Is it their partnerships?

是他们的资产负债表吗？

Is it their balance sheet?

如果你深入研究这些股票，有哪些风险因素或机会？

What what are the things that are kind of risk factors or opportunities if you're if you're digging into these stocks?

我认为合作伙伴关系非常重要。

So I think partnerships are really important.

我提到的是Joby和Archer这两家公司。

Joby and Archer are the two I mentioned.

他们会率先到达

They are going to get there first.

我认为谁先到并不重要

I don't think it matters who gets there first.

你知道吗？

You know?

我...我觉得关键在于他们最终都能到达

I I I think the fact that they're both gonna get there.

但看看这些合作伙伴。

But look at the partners.

Joby正与丰田在制造方面合作。

Joby is working with Toyota on manufacturing.

丰田在制造方面相当出色。

Toyota's pretty good at manufacturing.

达美航空将成为他们的合作伙伴之一。

Delta Airlines is gonna be a partner of theirs.

他们某种程度上收购或者说吞并了优步刚起步的直升机服务或航空服务业务，因此优步也是他们的合作伙伴。

Uber, they kind of acquired or or or swallowed Uber's fledgling, I would say, hopes to do a helicopter service or or an air service, and so they're a partner there.

Archer正在与Stellantis合作。

Archer's working with Stellantis.

他们与联合航空和西南航空都有合作。

They're working with United Airlines in Southwest.

这两家公司都拥有军事合同。

They both have military contracts.

它们都拥有国际影响力。

They both have, international presence.

这两家遥遥领先于其他公司。

They are the two that are way out in front.

其他一些公司也在努力尝试。

Some of these other companies are trying.

它们也有一些合作伙伴，我并非要轻视它们。

They have some partners too, and I I don't want to be dismissive of them.

但我确实认为存在关于可触及市场规模的疑问，同时这里也存在很多炒作。

But I do think there were questions about the addressable market, and I do think there's a lot of hype here too.

因此我认为，2026年入场的这两家将比那些晚几年进入的公司具有天然优势。

And so the two that arrive in 2026, I think, are going to have a natural advantage over those that are coming years later.

这会是一个像航空业那样，最终可能只有两三家能存活下来的行业吗？

Is this gonna be the kind of business, and it seems like aircraft do this, where there's kinda two, maybe three players that are able to survive?

所以如果你不在那前两名之列，追赶会非常非常困难？还是说这个行业规模足够小、市场足够大，即使晚几年入场也没关系？我是不是过度考虑这个风险了？

So if it's it's like if you're not in those two, it's gonna be really, really tough to catch up, or is this the kind of business that's small enough and a big enough addressable market that, you know, maybe if you're a couple years behind, it's fine, or am I overthinking that risk?

我不认为这会形成双头垄断。

I don't think it's a duopoly.

我认为最大的区别在于，当你销售价值数亿美元的喷气式飞机时，客户群体有限，因此供应商也有限。

I think the big difference is is that when you're selling a, you know, couple $100,000,000 jet, your customers are limited, and so therefore the suppliers are limited.

这些产品更小、更经济实惠，机会也更多。

These are smaller and more affordable, more opportunities.

我认为可以这样理解：它们基本上能实现直升机的所有功能，但安全性更高。

I think the way to think about these is kind of everything you would do with a helicopter if a helicopter was safer.

说实话，我们都知道直升机存在稳定性问题。

Because to be honest, we know I I mean, helicopters just have stability problems.

它们无法在恶劣天气中飞行。

You can't fly them in weather.

多年来发生了多起引人注目的坠机事故。

There's been a lot of high profile crash over the year.

这种机翼设计兼具直升机的所有优势，同时提供更强稳定性以拓展用途，这将是个巨大的市场。

Those the wings on this kinda give you all the benefit of a helicopter plus the stability to do more, that is a big market.

但你知道，我们销售的直升机数量有限，所以我认为这个市场存在上限。

But, you know, we don't sell that many helicopters, so I think there are limits to this market.

这将限制参与者的数量。

That is gonna limit the number of players.

不过，我不认为它会像大型商用飞机那样形成双头垄断。

But, no, I don't think it's gonna be a duopoly like with the big, commercial jets.

我认为存在更多机遇。

I think there are more opportunities.

Rachel，我们本周确实收到了一些推动性的消息

Rachel, we did get some news this week that drove

Beta Technologies和EVE Air Mobility。

Beta Technologies and EVE Air Mobility.

Beta是一家总部位于佛蒙特州的公司。

So Beta, they're a Vermont based company.

他们以研发制造全电动飞行器闻名，产品包括垂直起降机和常规固定翼机型。

They're known for developing and manufacturing all electric aircraft that includes vertical takeoff and landing and conventional fixed wing models.

EVE空中出行公司于2020年作为巴西航空工业公司的衍生企业正式成立，依托了母公司的航空专业技术。

Now EVE Air Mobility was officially launched as a spin off from the Brazilian company Embraer in 2020 building on Embraer's aviation expertise.

他们在几年前通过SPAC合并上市。

They became public through a SPAC merger a few years ago.

巴西航空工业公司仍持有其多数股权。

Embraer still retains a majority stake.

这是关于这两家公司的一些背景信息。

That's a little bit of a background on those two companies.

因此在这笔交易宣布后，Beta和EVE的股价都出现了大幅上涨。

So stocks of both Beta and EVE rose significantly after this deal was announced.

Beta将在未来十年内向EVE空中出行公司提供价值高达10亿美元的电动推进器电机。

Beta is going to be supplying up to $1,000,000,000 worth of electric pusher motors to EVE air mobility over the next ten years.

这为Beta带来了相当可观的新收入来源。

That provides Beta with a pretty significant new revenue stream.

这使得EVE成为其最大客户，同时也为EVE近3000架电动垂直起降飞机的订单储备确保了关键的推进系统技术。

It makes EVE its biggest customer, and it also really secures crucial propulsion system technology for EVE's backlog of almost 3,000 EFTOL aircraft.

我认为这也凸显了我们在这个领域看到的日益增长的整合趋势。

And I think it also highlights the growing consolidation that we're seeing in this space.

如Lou所提到的，这里有许多参与者，包括美国国内外的企业，这创造了很多机会。

You know, there's a lot of players here, like Lou mentioned, both domestically as well outside of The US, and that creates a lot of opportunity.

但我确实认为我们会继续看到这种整合的元素。

But I do think we're gonna continue to see this element of consolidation.

就Eve而言，他们确实对城市空中交通采取了更全面的方法。

Eve, its part, they do take a more holistic approach to urban air mobility.

他们计划销售他们的电动垂直起降飞机。

You know, they're looking to sell their EVTOL aircraft.

他们还在建设全球支持网络，以及他们称之为城市空中交通管理软件的销售产品。

They also are building out this global support network and what they call their urban air traffic management software that they wanna sell.

那里有很多有趣的事情正在发生。

So a lot of interesting things happening there.

当然，他们利用了前母公司及主要股东Embraer的专业知识来开发、生产和服务他们的飞机。

And, of course, they leverage the expertise of their former parent company and majority stakeholder Embraer to develop, produce, and service their aircraft.

所以这是个相当值得关注的行业。

So pretty interesting business to watch.

这对他们来说无疑是个重大进展。

This was certainly a great development for them.

新闻很多，但我们还没深入讨论的一点是：这些公司究竟如何盈利？他们何时才能开始实现现金流入？

A lot of news, but one of the things that we haven't talked a little bit about yet is how are these companies actually gonna make money and when are they gonna when are they gonna start bringing that cash in?

我们接下来就谈谈这个问题。

We'll get to that next.

您正在收听的是Motley Full Money。

You're listening to Motley Full Money.

欢迎回到Motley Full Money。

Welcome back to Motley Full Money.

在休息之前，我们讨论了电动垂直起降领域的情况，以及一些已经开始试飞的参与者。

Before the break, we talked about e v the EV Toll landscape and some of the players that are starting to fly themselves.

Lou，我想了解下商业模式。

I wanna know about the business model, Lou.

这个话题最终会变得非常重要，因为他们是要销售飞机吗？

This is one of those topics that ultimately becomes really important because are they gonna be selling aircraft?

他们是要提供共享出行服务吗？

Are they gonna be doing a rideshare service?

你和我将来会购买这些电动空中出租车吗？

Are you and I gonna be buying these air EV toll aircraft?

至少目前我们看到的商业模式是什么？

What is the business model that we see at least in front of us?

也许我们不知道二三十年后会是什么样子，但在未来五年内，这些公司将开发什么来真正创造收入？

Maybe we don't know how that what this looks like twenty or thirty years from now, but over the next five years, what are these companies gonna be developing that were that are gonna actually drive revenue?

是的。

Yeah.

那我们快速开始吧。

So let's start real quick.

我认为这是个很好的问题。

I I think that's a great question.

但让我们先从某种警告开始，然后再讨论令人兴奋的部分。

But let's start with a kind of a warning first, and then we'll talk about the excitement.

目前这些都处于营收前阶段。

Right now, these are all prerevenue.

很多股东基础和兴奋点都是基于想象，基于PPT演示。

And a lot of the shareholder base and a lot of the excitement is based on the imagination, is based on the PowerPoint.

我认为这里存在两个挑战。

I think, you know, there's two challenges here.

第一，解决科学问题；第二，在完成这一步后，解决商业问题。

One, solve the science problem, and then two, once you do that, solve the business problem.

你如何在这里赚钱？

How do you make money here?

我确实担心当他们真正转型为制造飞机的公司时，我们会发现制造飞机需要成本，这可能会逐渐淘汰部分投资者群体，从那些追逐热点的动量投资者开始。

I do worry here that when they actually turn into companies that are building airplanes, it's going to be we're gonna see that it costs money to make airplanes, and it might kinda shift out some of the the investor base over time kinda going from the hype momentum investors.

因此我认为这里将会出现很大的波动性。

And so I do think there's gonna be a lot of volatility here.

但看看这两家公司，确实很有意思。

But looking at the two, it is interesting.

不过要关注Joby和Archer，因为它们是行业的两大领军企业。

But look at Joby and Archer because they are the two leaders.

我认为市面上存在一些概念性产品，各位。

I think there's vaporware out there, guys.

但我觉得，他们最终都会实现目标。

But I think, you know, I mean, they are both gonna get here.

他们的运营模式截然不同。

They are very different in how they're set up.

Joby是一家垂直整合的制造商。

Joby is a vertically integrated manufacturer.

我之前提到过丰田。

I'd mentioned Toyota.

丰田非常擅长制造。

Toyota is very good at manufacturing.

Joby将自行制造他们的飞机。

They are Joby is going to build their aircraft in house.

Archer则更偏向轻资产模式。

Archer is more asset light.

他们正在与Stellantis合作，也就是克莱斯勒和Jeep的母公司。

They're working with Stellantis, the parent of, Chrysler and and and Jeep.

Stellantis和其他合作伙伴将为他们承担大部分制造工作。

Stellantis and other partners are going to do a lot of the manufacturing for them.

就商业模式而言，Joby希望与达美航空等合作伙伴协同运营其空中出租车服务。

As far as business model, Joby wants to operate its air taxi service, in in coordination with partners like Delta.

你知道，他们会与其他公司合作。

You know, like, they they are going to be working with others.

但Joby

But Joby

所以理论上会有一个Joby应用，我可以登录并说，嘿。

So there would theoretically be, like, a Joby app that I could go on, and I could say, hey.

我想从明尼阿波利斯飞往芝加哥。

I wanna fly from Minneapolis to Chicago.

理论上讲，肯定是Joby运营Joby的飞机，而Archer更像是传统的航空航天模式，他们想把飞机卖给美联航、西南航空或其他任何公司。

In theory, definitely, would be Joby operating Joby aircraft, with you know, versus Archer is more of like a traditional aerospace model where they want to sell the airplanes to whether it's United, Southwest, or whoever.

Joby目前在航程和速度上确实有优势。

Joby does have range and speed advantages right now.

我是说，他们都在谈论未来和各种不同的电动替代方案，但Joby现在能达到150英里。

I mean, they all talk about the future and, you know, different, I guess, electric alternatives, but Joby's gonna get a 150 miles right now.

Archer只能达到100英里。

Archer only gets a 100.

就使用场景而言，我认为这并不重要。

Use case, I don't think that's gonna matter.

至于它们将如何被使用，想象一下达美航空或西南联合航空从远郊接送乘客的场景。

As far as how they're gonna be used, imagine, like, Delta or Southwestern United feeding passengers from outer suburbs.

所以现在，他们正用一架耗油的小型喷气机从明尼阿波利斯的远郊飞往国际航班。

So right now, they are flying a gas guzzling little jet to get, you know, from the outer suburbs of Minneapolis to their international flights.

如果能用更高效、更小型且电动的飞机替代这些，那将节省大量成本。

If you can replace those with more efficient, smaller, aircraft that are that are electric, that's a big savings.

我认为你会看到它们在紧急医疗服务、搜救等领域取代直升机。

I think you'll see them replace helicopters in areas like, EMS, search, rescue.

你不会看到太多货运应用，因为只要涉及电池动力，就存在重量问题。

You're not gonna see cargo so much because anytime you're talking battery power, you're talking about weight issues.

我确实认为你问到了。

I do think you asked.

我确实认为个人飞行是可行的。

I do think personal flights.

Joby正在与优步合作。

Joby is working with Uber.

我不认为我们会把这些飞机停放在自家车库，但我认为未来会出现这种情况——我的意思是，现在只要你有钱，就可以乘坐直升机从曼哈顿到汉普顿。

I don't think we're gonna have these in our garage, but I do think there's gonna be I mean, right now, if you have the means, you can go from Manhattan out to the Hamptons in a helicopter.

是的。

Yeah.

Joby最近收购了Blade，而那正是Blade的商业模式。

Joby acquired Blade recently, and that that was Blade's business model.

至少这是他们收购的部分业务。

Least that's the piece that they bought.

我认为，这个想法是，我们已经具备了一定的基础设施。

And then the idea, I think, there would be we sort of have the infrastructure.

我们有直升机停机坪，或者他们所称的垂直起降场。

We have the helipads or, vertiports as they're calling them.

对。

Right.

然后我们只需接入我们的新飞机，就能从曼哈顿飞往机场，或者他们在某个地方也在做同样的事——我忘了具体是哪个。

And then we can just plug in our new aircraft and, yeah, fly from Manhattan to the airport or they're doing the same thing in I I forget which one.

其中一家在阿布扎比有合作伙伴关系，另一家在迪拜。

One of them has a partnership in Abu Dhabi, the other one Dubai.

没错。

Right.

但这大概也是那个构想的一部分。

But that would but that would be sort of the idea there too.

而且，我们得再次强调这一点，怎么强调都不为过。

And, again, we can't emphasize this enough.

我不想招惹直升机游说团体对我们穷追猛打，但直升机本质上就是不安全的。

I don't wanna get, you know, the helicopter lobby coming in coming at us hard, but these helicopters are inherently unsafe.

直升机存在是因为它们能解决问题，但要说它们不安全可能有点过分。

Helicopters exist because they solve problems, but they I mean, unsafe might be too hard.

不过直升机相较于固定翼飞机确实有一段坎坷的历史。

But but helicopters have a a rough history relative to fixed wing aircraft.

如果能两全其美——既不需要跑道能垂直起降，又具备飞行稳定性——那将打开许多可能性的大门。

If you can have the best of both worlds where that you don't need a runway, you can take off vertically, but you have the stability in flight, that opens a lot of doors and cut it.

这就是市场所在。

That is the market.

并不是说我们要从自家车道起飞，飞越堵车去杂货店购物。

It's not, you know, in our driveways flying to the, grocery store to get over traffic.

也许随着时间的推移那会实现。

That maybe in time that'll come.

但如果你从这个角度思考，我认为这至少是看待初期机遇的方式。

But if you think of it that way, I think that's the way you can look at the at least the initial opportunity.

Rachel，你看到哪些机会？

Rachel, where are you seeing opportunities?

Uber是频繁被提及的名字之一。

One of the names that keeps coming up is Uber.

你不会把Uber看作一家飞机制造公司，但随着我们节目中多次讨论过的自动驾驶等技术的发展，Uber和Lyft最终会在这方面发挥作用。

You don't think of Uber as an aircraft company, but it does seem like as some of these technologies that we we've talked about autonomous vehicles a number of times on the show, and Uber and Lyft end up playing a role in that.

这对像EV收费这样的领域来说也是个有趣的切入点吗？

Is that an interesting place for even for something like EV tolls?

你未必需要押注在这些零收入的公司上。

You don't necessarily have to take a risk on these zero revenue companies.

你可以直接搭上共享出行的顺风车。

You can just ride the wave of ride sharing.

这是正确的思考方式吗？

Is that the right way to think about it?

我的意思是，我认为这是有可能的。

I mean, I think that's possible.

而且考虑到像Archer和Joby这样的公司正在与许多优质的上市公司建立合作关系。

And I think also just given the fact that these companies like the Archers and Joby's are partnering with so many, you know, solid quality publicly traded businesses.

这为我们投资者提供了多种参与这一领域的方式。

It gives us as investors a lot of different ways to gain exposure to this space.

我确实认为看到各公司探索的不同模式非常有趣，Lou对此做了很好的概述。

And I do think it's really fascinating to see all the different models that companies are exploring, which, you know, Lou outlined really well.

你知道，有些电动垂直起降飞行器开发商可以扮演原始设备制造商的传统角色。

You know, you've got this kind of traditional idea where some of these EFTOL developers could act as sort of the original equipment manufacturer.

对吧？

Right?

他们可以将飞机出售给各种客户，如航空公司、包机公司等等。

And they could sell their aircraft to various customers, airlines, charter companies, and so forth.

可能采取这种混合模式，既出售飞机又保留部分所有权。

There could be this blended approach, where maybe they sell aircraft but retain an ownership stake.

显然，有些公司正考虑运营自己的电动垂直起降飞行器（eVTOL）机队，提供公共空中出租车服务。

Obviously, you've got companies that are looking at operating their own fleet of EFTOL's public air taxi services.

这就类似于优步和Lyft这类公司的切入点，与现代直升机运营模式相似。

That's where the Ubers and Lyfts of the world could come in, you know, similar to how modern helicopter services operate.

正如Lou也指出的关键问题，这种模式目前盈利能力极差，企业正在探索如何实现可持续的盈利方式。

The big issue here, as Lou noted as well, I mean, this is a model which is currently very unprofitable, and companies are trying to figure out how exactly they're gonna generate revenue in a sustainable way.

运营这类模式的成本非常高昂。

It's very expensive to, operate these models.

许多开发商都把希望寄托在未来的盈利能力上。

Many of these developers are banking on future profitability.

他们期望随着生产规模扩大，能够实现大幅度的成本削减。

They're hoping that they can, you know, enact aggressive cost reduction as production scales up.

我认为，除了客运空中出租车，货运物流和政府国防合同可能会成为企业更具盈利性的领域。

And I will say, I think that one of the more profitable areas that we might see for companies is gonna be in cargo delivery, government defense contracts beyond passenger air taxis.

尽管想到越来越多的消费者预订客运空中出租车从A点到B点很令人兴奋，但我认为这种模式不会像一些工业用例那样快速普及。

As exciting as it is to think of more and more consumers ordering their passenger air taxi to get from point a to point b, I don't necessarily see that being adopted as quickly as some of the more industrial use cases.

但我认为我们确实正处于这个市场发展的最初阶段。

But I think we're really very much at the beginning of where this market could go.

最后我想指出，真正关键的是要有完善的监管框架来推动采用。

One final thing I'll note, what's really, really key for adoption here is also having the regulatory guardrails in place.

我们看到在这方面已经有所进展，特别是在美国。

And we've seen some movement where that's concerned even in The US specifically.

今年早些时候，美国联邦航空管理局(FAA)最终确定了自1940年代以来首个新的民用飞机类别规则。

So earlier this year, the FAA, they finalized new rules for, the first new civil aircraft category since the nineteen forties.

这是针对动力升力飞机的规定，为电动垂直起降(EFTOL)飞机的飞行员培训和认证提供了明确的监管路径。

This is for powered lift aircraft, and that provides a clear regulatory path for pilot training and certification for EFTOL aircraft.

他们已设立了一个EFTOL整合试点项目，以加速这些飞机的部署。

They've established an EFTOL integration pilot program to accelerate the deployment of these aircrafts.

幕后有很多令人兴奋的进展正在为这项基础设施的逐步建设奠定基础。

There's a lot of exciting things happening behind the scenes that are gonna really lay the groundwork for this infrastructure to build out over time.

Lou，你看好这个领域中的哪些股票？

As you look at this space, Lou, which stocks are you excited about?

我押注Joby。

My money is with Joby.

这是我分散投资组合的一部分，因为这里风险很大，但我认为Joby拥有最佳商业模式，而且我非常欣赏他们的管理团队。

I that's part of a small diversified portfolio because there's a lot of risk here, but I think Joby has the best model, and I like the management team a lot.

我仍然不确定这些股票会发展成什么样，但我觉得很有意思。

So I I I still don't know what these could become, but, I think it's interesting.

所以Joby是我的首选。

So Joby is my horse.

Rachel，如果必须选一支电动垂直起降领域的龙头股，你会选哪支？

Rachel, if you have to pick a top stock in EV tools, what is it?

我要唱个反调选Archer，不过我也确实很看好这家公司。

I'm gonna say Archer just to be contrarian to Lou, but I also really like the business.

我确实觉得Uber不断被提及。

I really think Uber keeps coming up.

所以如果让我在这里选一支股票，我认为优步（Uber）会是选择，这些新技术需要触达客户，而优步似乎能发挥作用。

So if if I get to put one in here, I think Uber just there's these new technologies, they gotta reach customers somehow, and it seems like Uber will play a role.

也许这个角色并不重大。

Maybe it's not a huge role.

也许不会为他们带来1000亿美元的价值。

Maybe it's not something that drives, you know, a $100,000,000,000 in value to them.

但如果他们最终成为需求的关键节点，那对他们来说似乎又是个有利位置。

But if they end up being that point of demand, that that seems to be a good position for them again.

一如既往，节目嘉宾可能持有讨论到的股票仓位，而《The Motley Fool》月刊可能有正式推荐或反对意见，因此请勿仅凭节目内容买卖股票。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the monthly fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容均遵循The Motley Fool的编辑标准，且未经广告商认可。

All personal finance content follows The Motley Fool's editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告为赞助内容，仅提供信息参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

完整广告披露声明请查看节目备注。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

我是Travis Hoyam，代表Lou Whiteman、Rachel Warren、玻璃幕后的Dan Boyd以及整个Motley Pool团队。

For Lou Whiteman, Rachel Warren, Dan Boyd behind the glass, and the entire Motley Pool team, I'm Travis Hoyam.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

我们明天见。

We'll see you here tomorrow.