你应该在股市中投入多少？

你在股市内外应该持有多少资金？

How much should you have in and out of the stock market?

是的。

Yep.

今天我们在这期《富比士金钱》的周六个人理财节目中讨论资产配置。

We're talking asset allocation on this Saturday personal finance edition of Motley Fool Money.

我是罗伯特·布罗坎普，今天是每月第一个周六，意味着我们的2026年财务规划挑战进入下一阶段。

I'm Robert Brokamp, and it's the first Saturday of the month, which means it's time for the next installment of our 2026 Financial Planning Challenge.

由于这是一个非常重要的主题，本周我们将跳过新闻摘要，花更多时间讨论如何分配你的投资组合。

Because it's such an important topic, we're going to skip the headlines this week and devote more time to discussing what to consider when apportioning your portfolio.

那么我们开始吧。

So here we go.

这是‘规划美好一年’活动的第三个月，也就是我们的2026年财务规划挑战。

It's month three of A Year Well Planned, our 2026 financial planning challenge.

在前两个月里，我们探讨了建立跟踪支出和净资产的系统。

In the previous two months, we covered coming up with systems to monitor your spending and your net worth.

这个月，我们将转向你的投资组合，根据你的个人情况和风险承受能力，讨论投资组合该有多激进。

This month, we're moving on to your portfolio and how spicy it should be given your circumstances and tolerances.

和我一起讨论这个问题的是持证财务规划师和特许金融分析师阿曼达·基什。

And joining me to talk about it is certified financial planner and chartered financial analyst Amanda Kish.

阿曼达，欢迎回来。

Amanda, welcome back.

非常感谢。

Thank you so much.

很高兴能再次回来。

I'm so glad to be back.

本次讨论的目的是帮助听众确定在股市中应投入多少资金，以及可能应保留多少资金，还有应考虑哪些类型的股票。

The purpose of this discussion is to help listeners determine the right amount to have in the stock market, basically, and maybe the amount to keep out as well as what type of stocks to consider.

正如人们可能猜测的那样，我们会谈到‘风险承受能力’这个术语，但其实我们先要讨论一个可能更重要的概念，那就是风险承受力。

And as people might suspect, we're gonna talk about the term risk tolerance, but we're actually gonna start with something that might be more important, and that is risk capacity.

所以，阿曼达，我们所说的‘风险承受力’指的是什么？

So Amanda, what do we mean by that?

风险承受能力实际上是风险评估中的结构性部分。

So risk capacity is really the structural side of the risk equation.

它不是关于你对波动性的感受。

It's not about how you feel about volatility.

而是关于你的财务状况实际能承受多少损失，而不会危及你的短期或长期目标。

It's about what your financial life can actually afford to absorb without putting your short term, long term goals at risk.

我见过的一个很好的类比是：风险偏好是你的胃，而风险承受能力是你的安全带。

So one good analogy that I've seen is that risk tolerance is your stomach, and risk capacity is your seat belt.

一个是情感层面的，一个是机械层面的，你需要两者来准确评估个人的风险状况。

So one's emotional, one is mechanical, and you need both to properly assess your individual risk profile.

影响风险承受能力的因素包括你需要这笔钱的时间有多久。

And the factors that go into risk capacity are things like how long until you need this money.

如果你35岁，正在为退休储蓄，那么你的投资周期与58岁或63岁的人截然不同。

So if you're 35 and saving for retirement, you have a very different runway than someone who is 58 or 63.

同样，收入的稳定性也是一个因素。

And then similarly, income stability is a factor.

举个例子，一位终身教授和一位自由职业者可能拥有相同的净资产，但承受糟糕一年的能力却大不相同。

As an example, a tenured professor and a freelance contractor might have an identical net worth, but very different capacities to ride out a bad year.

此外，你的流动性状况也是一个因素。

And then your liquidity situation factors in as well.

意思是，如果明天市场下跌30%，而你又遭遇一笔巨大的意外开支，你是否被迫在最糟糕的时机抛售投资？

Meaning if the market dropped 30% tomorrow and you also got hit with a big unexpected expense, would you be forced to sell investments at exactly in the wrong time?

还是你有足够的现金来缓冲这些短期波动？

Or do you have cash to cushion those short term bumps?

这些就是所有能够帮助塑造投资者风险承受能力的因素。

So these are all of the factors that can help to shape an investor's risk capacity.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，如果你离某个目标还有几年时间，那么这笔钱最好保守一些。

So if you're a few years from a goal, right, you should probably be playing it safe with that money.

在《The Fool》，我们通常认为，未来三到五年内需要使用的资金不应该投入股市。

Here at The Fool, we generally say that a money you need in the next three to five years should not be in the stock market.

从历史上看，标普500指数在84%的三年持有期内实现盈利，在88%的五年持有期内盈利，在94%的十年持有期内盈利。

Historically speaking, the S and P 500 is profitable in 84% of three year holding periods, 88% of five year holding periods, 94% of ten year holding periods.

所以，这个三到五年的建议就是这么来的，但历史也表明，即使十年持有期也不能保证盈利，因此你应该根据自己的情况和偏好进行调整。

So that's sort of where that three to five year guideline comes from, but, you know, history does say that even a ten year holding period doesn't guarantee gains, so you should adjust it for your circumstances and preferences.

我同意你关于人们应该考虑自身人力资本——也就是工作——的观点。

And I agree with your point about how someone should consider their human capital, in other words, their jobs.

对吧？

Right?

多年前，退休专家莫斯·莫莱斯基博士写了一本书，名为《你是股票还是债券？》

So years ago, retirement expert doctor Moshe Moleski wrote a book called Are You a Stock or a Bond?

他的观点是，有些人从事的工作非常稳定，收入可靠且可预测，就像债券一样，因此这些人理论上可以承担更高的投资风险。

With the point being, you know, there are some people who have these jobs that are very safe, provide dependable and predictable income, so they're kind of like bonds, which means those people, theoretically at least, could take more risk in their portfolios.

还有一类工作，其收入波动很大，受经济衰退的影响也更明显。

Then you have jobs that are much more up and down in terms of the income and how much they're affected by economic downturns.

如果你从事的是这类工作，或许应该在投资组合中采取更保守的策略。

And if you have that type of job, maybe you should play it safer with your portfolio.

另一个需要考虑的是，无论你的工作如何，你都可能需要思考是否不应该过度投资于与你雇主同行业的股票，因为你可能不希望自己的净资产、投资组合和收入都过度依赖于同一个行业的未来前景。

And then just another consideration is, you know, regardless of your job, you might consider whether you want to overinvest in stocks in the same industry as your employer because you may not want too much of your net worth riding on and your portfolio and your income riding on the future of the same industry.

好的。

Okay.

如果我们把风险承受能力简化为几个指导原则，那会是哪些呢？

So if we were to boil risk capacity down to a few guiding principles, what would they be?

投资者需要考虑三个原则。

There are three principles that investors really need to think about.

首先，考虑你的投资期限。

So first, consider your time horizon.

你的投资时间越长，承受风险的能力就越强，因为正如你刚才提到的，市场在足够长的时间内通常会从低迷中恢复。

So the longer your timeline, the more capacity you have because as you just noted, markets have historically recovered from downturns given enough time.

其次，你谈到了不同类型的工作。

And then secondly, you talked about the different types of jobs.

因此，评估你的收入或现金流的稳定性。

So assessing the stability of your income or cash flow.

所以，如果你的工资稳定，或者已经退休，你的收入来源可靠，应急基金也已备足，那么你可以承受这种波动。

So if your paycheck or if you're retired, your income sources are reliable, your emergency fund is funded, you can afford to let that ride.

第三，对你的投资组合流动性进行心理压力测试。

And then third, mentally stress test your portfolio liquidity.

所以，如果市场大幅下跌，你会被迫卖出吗？

So would a significant drop force you to sell?

如果答案是肯定的，因为你没有足够的现金储备，或者你即将实现某个目标（比如孩子上大学或退休），那么你的风险承受能力实际上比你想象的要低，无论你的年龄或收入如何。

And if the answer is yes, because you don't have those cash reserves or because you're close to a goal that you need the funds for, then your capacity is lower than you might think regardless of your age or income.

我还想提醒一点，高收入并不自动等同于高风险承受能力。

And I'll throw out there that to also keep in mind that high income doesn't automatically equal high risk capacity.

所以，如果一个人负债较多、收入不稳定，或者距离重大目标（如子女上大学或退休）不到五年，那么无论他的证券账户账面金额有多大，他的风险承受能力都会受到限制。

So if someone has a lot of debt, more variable income, or is within five years of a major goal, college or retiring, their capacity to take on risk is going to be constrained regardless of how big that brokerage account looks on paper.

因此，风险承受能力真正关注的是整体情况，而不仅仅是投资组合的规模。

So the risk capacity is really about the whole picture, not just the size of your portfolio.

是的。

Yeah.

你刚才提到了几个目标，比如大学教育和退休。

You mentioned a couple goals there, college and retirement.

我要指出的是，退休这个目标比较特殊，因为它不是一个有明确截止日期的目标。

And I'll just point out that retirement is kind of a unique goal because it's not a goal with a single date.

它实际上是一系列目标，对吧？

It's actually a series of goals, right?

你在退休第一年、第二年、第三年……需要多少钱。

How much you need in your first year retirement, second year retirement, third year retirement, and so on.

研究表明，在退休前五到十年，尤其是退休后最初的五到十年里，你的财务决策会对整个退休期间的支出能力以及投资组合的持续时间产生不成比例的重大影响，因此有些人称这一时期为‘退休红区’或‘退休危险期’，这时尤其需要认真评估你的风险承受能力。

And the studies show that what happens in that five to ten years before your retirement, and particularly in your first five to ten years of retirement, really has a disproportionate impact on how much you can spend over the course of your retirement and how long your portfolio is going to last, which is why some people call this period the retirement red zone or the retirement danger zone, and it's a time to really consider your risk capacity.

好的，我们继续谈风险承受意愿。

All right, let's move on to risk tolerance.

正如你所说，这是关于‘心理承受力’：你能多大程度上承受全股票投资组合或投资组合中股票占比波动带来的情绪压力，因为你无法预知股票未来的价值。

So that's, know, as you said, the stomach: how much you can emotionally take the up and down of an all stock portfolio or the amount of stocks you have in your portfolio and the uncertainty in your portfolio, because you don't know what the future value of stocks are going to be.

学术研究发现，这种承受意愿并不是一成不变的。

And academic evidence finds that it's not static.

你的风险承受能力甚至可能每天都在变化，但在牛市期间往往会增加，因为当股市上涨时，我们都觉得承担风险没什么问题。

Your risk tolerance could actually even change from day to day, but it tends to increase during bull markets because we all feel fine with risk when the stock market's going up.

但对于一些人来说，当市场下跌时，你的风险承受能力会急剧下降。

But then for some people, your risk tolerance plummets as the market goes down.

那么，我们如何在情况变糟之前确定自己的风险承受能力呢？

So how can we determine our risk tolerance before things turn bad?

这一点非常重要，因为确实如此。

That's such an important point because it's very true.

几乎每个人在市场上涨20%或25%时，都认为自己是激进型投资者。

Almost everyone thinks that they're a very aggressive investor when the market is up 20% or 25%.

但真正的考验是当市场下跌20%或25%时会发生什么。

But that real test is what happens when it drops 20% or 25%.

风险真正关注的是这种下行潜力。

And that's really what risk is concerned with is that downside potential.

因此，为了在真正身处那种情境之前了解自己真正的承受能力，我认为最诚实的方法之一是使用我所谓的‘直觉测试’场景。

So to figure out that true tolerance before we're actually in that situation, I think one of the most honest approaches is to use what I would just call a gut check scenario.

所以问问自己：如果明天我查看我的投资组合，发现它下跌了30%，而这种情况曾经发生过，将来还会再发生，我的第一反应会是什么？

So ask yourself, if I checked my portfolio tomorrow and it was down 30% and that has happened and it will happen again, what would my first instinct be?

如果你的答案是：我会有点不安，但我会坚持持有，那很好。

And if your answer is, I'd feel a little uncomfortable, but I'd hold steady, then that's great.

但另一方面，如果你的答案是：是的，我想我可能会开始抛售并转投现金，那这是一个重要的信号，因为这种直觉正是你真实风险承受能力的体现。

And if on the other hand, your answer is, yeah, I think I'd probably start liquidating and moving into cash, then that's an important data point because that instinct right there, that's your real risk tolerance talking.

我认为我们都见过，许多券商或投资顾问都提供风险承受能力问卷。

And I think we've all seen that there are risk tolerance questionnaires out there that most brokerages or investment advisers have them.

这些问卷当然可以作为一个很好的起点，帮助你开始思考这些概念。

And they can be a good starting point for sure to get you talking and thinking about these concepts.

但我个人会更看重你的实际经历，而不是一份测验结果。

But I would honestly put more weight on your history than necessarily a quiz.

你以前经历过市场下跌吗？

So have you invested through a downturn before?

回顾一下，当2020年市场在几周内下跌三分之一，或者2022年成长型股票腰斩时，你当时实际做了什么？

So looking back, what did you actually do in 2020 when the market dropped by a third in the span of a couple weeks or in in 2022 when growth stocks got cut in half.

因此，你在这些时刻的行为往往比在市场相对平静时回答假设性问题更具预测性。

So your behavior in those moments tends to be far more predictive than how you answer a hypothetical question when the market is relatively calm.

是的。

Yeah.

你会在网上找到一些这样的问卷。

And you'll find some of those questionnaires online.

先锋基金就有这样一个问卷。

Vanguard has one.

我肯定富达、嘉信理财以及那些机构也都提供类似的问卷，如果你感兴趣的话。

I'm sure Fidelity and Schwab and all those folks have one in case you're curious.

但我同意你的观点。

But I agree with you.

最终，这真的取决于你在过去市场低迷时的实际行为和感受。

In the end, it really depends on what you actually did, how you actually felt during past downturns.

你提到了2020年和2022年。

You mentioned 2020, 2022.

一年前，我们几乎进入了熊市。

A year ago, we were close to a bear market.

关于这些熊市，我想说的是，它们恢复得非常快，我有时担心投资者，尤其是新投资者，已经被训练得认为，哦，如果出现熊市，一年内就会反弹，但实际上，市场平均需要两到三年才能恢复到熊市前的水平。

One thing I would say about those is they rebounded really quickly, and I sometimes worry that investors, especially newer investors, have been trained to think that, oh, if there's a bear market, it'll turn around within a year, when actually, on average, it takes two to three years for the market to get back to where it was before a bear market.

而本世纪前两次熊市——即互联网泡沫破裂和2007年开始的全球金融危机——市场恢复时间实际上超过了五年。

And it took actually more than five years for the first two bear markets of this century, those being the dot com crash and the great financial crisis that started in 2007.

因此，在考虑你的资产配置时，了解历史以及市场有时需要多长时间才能复苏，是非常重要的。

So I think it's important to consider the history and how long it sometimes does take for the market to recover as you think about your asset allocation.

说到这个，显然每个人都是不同的，对吧？

Speaking of which, obviously everyone's different, right?

但我猜测，大多数听这个节目的人，都能清楚地知道自己是保守型、稳健型还是激进型投资者。

But I suspect most people listening to this have a good sense of whether they're a cautious, moderate, aggressive investor.

那么，这通常意味着他们应该在股票市场中配置多少比例呢？

So what does that generally suggest in terms of how much they should have in the stock market?

显然，这里还会涉及许多其他影响因素。

So obviously, there are gonna be a lot of other factors that would be in play here.

因此，最显著的是你的年龄和投资期限会对资产配置产生重大影响。

So most notably your age and your time horizon are going to have a big effect on that asset allocation.

但我先给出一些大致的范围，当然要强调的是，这些只是起点，而非固定准则。

But I'll throw out some general ballpark ranges with of course the big caveat that these are just starting points, not prescriptions.

话虽如此，如果你是激进型投资者，也就是说你有较长的投资周期，并且真正能坦然面对市场波动，那么对于退休人士来说，股票配置比例在70%左右可能合适，而对于年轻投资者，比例可达95%、96%甚至97%。

With that being said, I would say if you're an aggressive investor, so that means you have a long runway and a genuine emotional comfort with volatility, anywhere from, let's say, 70% in stocks if you're a retiree to 95, 96, 97% for a younger investor could be appropriate for you.

如果你属于中等风险类型，也就是说你能接受一定程度的市场波动，但希望避免市场大幅下跌的最糟糕情况，那么股票配置比例可以考虑在60%到90%之间，具体仍取决于你的投资期限。

If you're more in that moderate group, which means you are comfortable with some market turbulence but looking to avoid the very worst of a big market decline, you might wanna consider anywhere from 60 to 90% in stocks, again, depending on your time horizon.

而如果你属于更保守的类型，也就是说你真的会因为市场波动而彻夜难眠，或者你的投资期限较短，那么你可能需要考虑将50%到80%的资产配置在股票上。

And then if you fall in that more conservative bucket, which means you're someone who genuinely is losing sleep at night over volatility or who has a shorter time horizon, you may wanna think about anywhere between 50% to 80% in equities.

同样，这取决于你处于投资旅程的哪个阶段。

And again, that depends on where you're falling in your investing journey.

退休人士应倾向于较低的比例。

Retirees are gonna be wanna be on the lower end.

年轻投资者则应倾向于较高的比例。

Younger investors are gonna wanna be on the higher end of that.

我想强调的一点是，资产配置这个概念中，最好的配置就是你能够长期坚持的那一种。

And one thing I I do wanna emphasize is that this concept of asset allocation, the best allocation is the one that you can actually stick with over the long run.

这意味着在顺境和逆境中都要坚持。

And that means in both good times and bad.

因此，一个你在恐慌时刻就放弃的90%股票投资组合，很可能比一个你能稳定持有数十年的60%股票投资组合对你的损害更大。

So a 90% equity portfolio that you abandon in a moment of panic is going to be far worse for you most likely than a 60% equity portfolio that you can hold steadily for several decades.

所以，真正采取长期视角非常重要。

So really taking that long term view is very important.

1915年1月，欧内斯特·沙克尔顿的船‘坚忍号’在威德尔海被冰层困住。

In January 1915, Ernest Shackleton's ship, Endurance, became encased in the ice in the Weddell Sea.

凭借决心、毅力和智慧，沙克尔顿带领他的队员们度过了严酷的冬天，穿越了数百英里的南极冰原，随后又航行了800英里，穿越了世界上一些最凶险的海域。

Through determination, grit, and savvy, Shackleton would lead his men through a brutal winter, then over hundreds of miles of Antarctic ice, followed by 800 miles across some of the roughest waters in the world.

这是探险史上最为非凡和鼓舞人心的旅程之一。

It is one of the most extraordinary and inspirational journeys in the history of exploration.

想了解这个故事以及其他更多精彩内容，请收听《探险家》播客，您可以在任何播客平台搜索，或访问 explorerspodcast.com。

Find this story and many others at the explorers podcast available wherever you get your podcasts or at explorerspodcast.com.

如果你在寻找关于如何配置投资组合的其他观点，我通常喜欢看看目标日期基金的做法。

And if you're looking for other opinions on how you should allocate your portfolio, I always like to look at what's going on within target date funds.

这些基金根据未来的退休日期，被赋予了特定的资产配置。

These are, you know, funds that are given a certain asset allocation based on a future retirement date.

如今，几乎所有大型机构都有这类基金。

Just about every major firm has them nowadays.

它们在现金、股票、债券、国际股票、

It's split between cash, stocks, and bonds, international stocks, U.

美国股票、小盘股、大盘股之间进行分配，并且会自动为你再平衡。

S.

所以，如果你打算在2040年退休，可以去看看先锋、富达、贝莱德和道富等公司2040目标日期基金的配置情况。

Stocks, small caps, large caps, and it does all the rebalancing for you.

所以，如果你打算在2040年退休，可以去看看先锋、富达、贝莱德和道富等公司2040目标日期基金的配置情况。

So, you know, if you were gonna retire, say, 2040, take a look and see how the 2040 funds from Vanguard and Fidelity and BlackRock and T.

所以，如果你打算在2040年退休，可以去看看先锋、富达、贝莱德和道富等公司2040目标日期基金的配置情况。

Rowe Price, how they're allocated.

这可能会给你一个关于如何配置资产的总体思路。

It might give you a general idea of how you might allocate your assets.

我要说，这些基金通常面向风险偏好中等的投资者，因此如果你更保守或更激进，可以相应地向上或向下调整。

I will say they tend to be geared towards more moderate risk investors, so then you just adjust it upwards or downwards if you are more conservative or more aggressive.

好的。

Alright.

那么我们现在谈到了在股市中应该投入多少，但风险承受能力和风险偏好这些因素如何决定你购买哪种股票呢？

So now we've talked about how much to have in the stock market, but how would risk capacity, risk tolerance, these factors determine what kind of stocks you buy?

这很有趣，因为讨论的重点从股票该投多少转向了该买哪种股票。

That's interesting because the conversation then moves from how much stock to what kind of stocks.

风险承受能力和风险偏好在这里同样重要，因为显然，并非所有股票的波动性都一样。

And risk capacity, risk tolerance, they they matter here just as much because not all stocks are created equal, obviously, in terms of volatility.

因此，在考虑市场上存在的股票类型时，规模较大、更成熟的公司，尤其是派发股息的公司，通常比小盘成长股或新兴市场股票的波动性低得多。

So in thinking about the kind of stocks that are out there, larger, more established companies, perhaps dividend paying companies tend to be far less volatile than, let's say, a small cap growth company or an emerging market stock.

因此，谨慎的投资者或风险承受能力较低的人可能会更倾向于选择这些股息增长型股票、大盘价值股，甚至波动性更平缓的广泛指数基金。

So cautious investor or someone with that lower risk capacity might lean more heavily into those dividend growers to large cap value stocks or even broad index funds that tend to smooth out the bumps a little bit more.

相比之下，风险承受能力更强、风险偏好更高的积极型投资者，可能会选择更集中的持仓，更多地配置小型公司股票，甚至可能选择那些具有更高增长潜力但伴随更高波动性的行业特定基金。

And then in comparison, a more aggressive investor that has a higher capacity, higher risk tolerance might have room for more concentrated positions, more exposure to smaller companies or maybe even sector specific funds that have that higher growth potential but that come at the cost of of higher volatility.

这正是资产配置如此重要的原因。

And that's just that's just why asset allocation is so important.

它不仅关乎股票和债券之间的比例，还关乎你所持有股票的不同类型之间的搭配。

It's not just about the mix between stocks and bonds, but also the mix of the different types stocks that you own as well.

是的。

Yeah.

你提到了一个关于你持有股票数量的好观点。

You bring up a good point about the number of stocks you own.

在富达基金，我们通常建议你至少持有25只股票。

Here at The Motley Fool, we generally recommend that you should own at least 25.

就我个人而言，这已经是最低限度了。

And for me personally, that's a real bare minimum.

我认为大多数人应该持有更多股票，并且可以搭配一些多元化的指数基金作为补充。

I think most people should own more and maybe have a complement of a diversified portfolio of index funds as well.

但这是值得考虑的。

But that's something to consider.

你对投资组合的集中程度感到多舒服？

How concentrated a portfolio are you comfortable with?

我还要补充一点，观察一只股票、基金或ETF在过去市场低迷时期的表现，可以提供一些线索，帮助你推测它在未来困难时期可能的表现。

And I'll also add that seeing how a stock or a fund or an ETF performed during past downturns can provide some hint as to how it might perform in some sort of future tough times.

对吧？

Right?

但历史并不总是重复，因此无法确切知道未来会发生什么。

And history does not always repeat itself, so there's no way to know for sure what may happen.

但如果你审视你的投资组合，发现大多数投资在过去的低迷期下跌幅度都超过整体市场，那么可以合理推测，未来低迷期也很可能如此。

But if you look across your portfolio and most of your investments drop more than the overall market during previous downturns, it's probably reasonable to assume that that's the likeliest outcome during a future downturn.

如果过去你的投资组合表现得比市场更好，情况也是一样，你只需要判断这是否符合你当前的状况，以及可能的近期处境。

Same if your portfolio held up better in the past, and you just have to decide if that's appropriate for your current situation and maybe your near term circumstances as well.

让我们转向行为金融学领域，过去二十五年左右，这一领域发展迅速，并揭示了一些偏见，解释了为什么人们会选择并不真正适合自己的投资组合，或者有时并没有做出最理性的反应。

Let's move on to the field of behavioral finance, which has really grown over the past twenty five years or so, and it has come with some biases that explain why people choose portfolios that aren't ultimately the right fit for them, or they don't actually react the most rationally at times.

那么，这些里面有没有一两个特别值得你关注的，阿曼达？

So are there one or two of these that are particularly worth highlighting for you, Amanda?

是的。

Yeah.

我想强调两个特别隐蔽的。

I would highlight two that I think are are particularly sneaky.

第一个是损失厌恶。

So the first is loss aversion.

这一点实际上有大量的研究支持。

And this is one that actually has quite a bit of research behind it.

行为经济学家发现，亏损带来的心理痛苦大约是获得同等金额快乐的两倍。

So behavioral economists have found that the pain of losing money is roughly twice as powerful psychologically as the pleasure of gaining that same amount.

这意味着投资者常常为了规避损失而做出非理性的决定。

And that means that investors often make irrational decisions in an attempt to avoid losses.

比如仅仅因为资产暂时下跌就卖出优质的资产。

So selling good assets just because they're temporarily down.

所以即使长期持有显然是更好的选择。

So even when holding is clearly the better long term move.

但这并不一定是一种弱点。

And that's not necessarily a weakness.

这仅仅是人类天性使然。

It's just kind of how we're wired as humans.

但如果你了解自己这一点，就能帮助你至少在它主导你的决策之前，识别出这种倾向。

But knowing that about yourself, it can help you at least recognize that and recognize that tendency before it tends to take over.

然后第二个我想指出的是近期偏差。

And then the second one I'd call out is recency bias.

这是一种倾向于认为刚刚发生的事情会继续发生的倾向。

And that's a tendency to assume that whatever just happened is gonna keep happening.

所以在牛市之后，正如我们之前提到的，每个人都觉得自己是激进的投资者。

So after a bull market, you know, we talked about this earlier, everyone feels like they're aggressive investors.

他们觉得自己能承受波动。

They can handle the volatility.

但市场下跌后，每个人都觉得，哦，我本该持有现金。

But then after a decline, everyone feels like, oh, I should have been in cash.

问题是，当这种趋势变得明显时，你通常已经错过了在任何方向上的最佳反应时机。

And the problem is that by the time that trend is obvious, you're usually late to react to it in either direction.

这种近期偏差正是导致人们高买低卖的原因，而这显然与我们所有人追求的目标完全相反。

And that recency bias is is how people end up buying high and and selling low, which is obviously the exact opposite of what we're all trying to do.

我再补充一个，那就是从众心理，也就是追涨杀跌，跟着大伙儿一起行动。

I'll just add another which is herd mentality, and that's, you know, buying what's hot, panic selling with the crowd, basically going along with everybody else.

这可以理解。

And it's understandable.

对吧？

Right?

我还要提一下你可能称之为它的近亲——FOMO，即害怕错过。

I would throw in what you could maybe call its cousin FOMO or fear of missing out.

当别人都在行动时，很难不加入人群。

When other people are doing things, it's hard not to be part of the crowd.

你的具体情况可能需要一个平衡的投资组合，甚至可以包含相当比例的蓝筹股和高股息股票。

And your circumstances may warrant a balanced portfolio, maybe even with a good helping of blue chip dividend paying stocks.

但在过去几年里，看着那些全仓押注科技股的人赚得盆满钵满，可能很难保持冷静，至少直到最近几个月为止。

But it may have been hard over the past few years to watch people who are all in on tech stocks make so much money, at least until the last few months.

但我想强调的是，别人拥有什么根本不重要，因为你无法花别人的钱。

But I think the point here, of course, is it doesn't matter what other people have because you can't spend other people's money.

你只能花自己的钱，你需要一个能让你坚持到底的投资组合，里面包含你未来需要时能动用的所有资金。

You can only spend your own, and you need a portfolio that you could stick with full of all the money that will be there when you need it.

那么，阿曼达，你对我们有什么最后的建议吗？

Well, Amanda, any final words of wisdom for us?

是的。

Yeah.

我只是想重申你刚才说的话。

I would just reiterate what you just said.

我只是想提醒投资者，了解自己的风险承受能力，其目的并不是找到完美的投资组合。

I just would remind investors that the whole goal of understanding your risk profile isn't to find the perfect portfolio.

而是找到你能安心持有的投资组合。

It's to find the portfolio that you can live with.

因为一个年收益达到8%的投资者，从不恐慌。

Because an investor who is out there earning, let's say, 8 percent annually, they never panic.

他们坚持长期持有。

They continue to hold for the long run.

他们几乎总是能超越那些追逐12%、15%回报却频繁进出市场的投资者。

They're almost always going to outperform an investor who's out there chasing, let's say, 12%, 15% return, but they're moving in and out of the market.

他们在最糟糕的时刻选择撤出。

They're bailing at the worst moment.

所以，如果花一两分钟反思你真正的风险偏好、风险承受力和风险容量，能帮助你在下一次市场暴跌时避免做出恐惧驱动的决定，那这一切都值得。

So if taking a minute or two to reflect on your true risk temperament, your risk tolerance and risk capacity helps you avoid making a fear driven decision the next time that markets get ugly, then that's more than worth it.

说得好，阿曼达。

Well put, Amanda.

再次感谢你加入我们。

Thanks again for joining us.

谢谢

Thank

但如果你在多个提供商那里拥有多个账户，这可能会相当困难，因此如果你还没有这样做，请选择一个工具来跟踪和分析你所有的资产。

But that can be pretty difficult if you have multiple accounts spread across multiple providers, so if you haven't yet, choose a tool to track and analyze everything that you own.

可以用电子表格来完成，网上有很多免费模板，但请确保你只从你绝对信任的网站下载文件。

It can be done with a spreadsheet, and there are plenty of free templates out there on the internet just make sure you're only downloading files from sites you can absolutely trust.

然后你可以使用数据功能，按你想要的频率更新你的投资价格。

Then you use the data functions to update the prices of your investments as often as you like.

你也可以使用投资组合跟踪工具，其中一些是我们之前在讨论如何跟踪支出和净资产时提到的服务的一部分。

You can also use portfolio tracking tools, and some are part of the services we've mentioned in previous episodes when discussing how to track your spending and net worth.

值得考虑的几个工具包括Empower、Monarch Money和Quicken Premier，它们可以自动从你的投资账户中提取信息。

A few to consider are Empower, Monarch Money, and Quicken Premier, which can pull in the information from your investment accounts automatically.

我使用的一个工具是Morningstar的高级投资者服务，每年249美元或每月35美元并不便宜，但提供七天免费试用。

One tool that I use is Morningstar's premium investor service, which at $249 a year or thirty five dollars a month isn't cheap, though there is a seven day free trial.

我特别喜欢它的X射线功能，它可以深入分析我所持有的共同基金和ETF的持仓，让我了解我的投资组合真实配置情况，以及在考虑我持有的股票和所有也持有该股票的基金时，我实际拥有多少该个股。

What I particularly like is its X-ray feature that looks into the holdings of the mutual funds and ETFs I own to let me know how my portfolio is truly allocated and how much of an individual stock I own when considering my investment in the stock and all the funds I own that also hold the stock.

顺便说一下，你可能已经某种程度上可以使用这项服务了。

By the way, you may already have access to the service to some degree.

一些券商和个人理财工具整合了Morningstar的X射线工具访问权限，尽管在某些情况下存在限制。

A few brokerages and personal finance tools incorporate access to Morningstar's X-ray tool, though in some cases with limitations.

因此，我提到的所有这些工具都会告诉你你的投资组合当前是如何配置的，而阿曼达和我则提出了一些关于它应该如何配置的建议。

So all these tools that I mentioned will tell you how your portfolio is currently allocated, and Amanda and I suggested some thoughts on how perhaps it should be allocated.

为了获得更学术化的观点，耶鲁管理学院的詹姆斯·蔡教授根据他合著的一篇题为《实用金融》的论文，创建了一个免费的电子表格，该表格会根据你的收入、人生阶段、风险承受能力和投资组合规模，建议你该在股市中配置多少资金。

For a much more academic take, Professor James Choi of the Yale School of Management created a free spreadsheet based on a recent paper he co wrote entitled Practical Finance, and the spreadsheet will suggest how much someone should have in the stock market based on their income, life stage, risk tolerance, and portfolio size.

你可以在博士的网站上找到该电子表格的链接。

You can find a link to the spreadsheet on Doctor.

蔡教授的领英主页。

Choi's LinkedIn page.

好了，朋友们，这就是本期节目。

And that, my friends, is the show.

感谢收听，也一如既往地感谢巴特·香农担任本集的工程师。

Thanks for listening, and thanks to Bart Shannon, as always, for being the engineer of this episode.

节目中的人可能对他们讨论的投资有利益关联，而富达基金可能已正式提出买入或卖出建议，因此不要仅凭你听到的内容来买卖投资产品。

People on the program may have interests in the investments they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell investments based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容均遵循富达基金的编辑标准，且未经过广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告为赞助内容，仅提供信息参考。

Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only.

如需查看我们的完整广告披露，请参阅节目说明。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

我是罗伯特·布罗坎普。

I'm Robert Brokamp.

全力以赴，各位。

Full on, everybody.