马克·马特森访谈：体验美国梦

如果我对金钱和人生没有目标，那么再多钱也永远不够。

If I don't have a purpose for my money and my life, then no amount of money will ever be enough.

就算你中了彩票，赢了一亿美元，那也不够。

You win the lottery, win a $100,000,000, that's not enough.

不会让你幸福。

Won't make you happy.

这是《体验美国梦》的作者马克·马特森的观点，他讲述了如何通过时间、精力和金钱的投资来创造非凡人生。

That was Mark Matson, author of Experiencing the American Dream, how to invest your time, energy, and money to create an extraordinary life.

我是Motley Fool节目制作人马特·格里尔。

I'm Motley Fool producer Matt Greer.

最近Motley Fool撰稿人里奇·卢梅洛与马特森就投资、成功和体验美国梦进行了对话。

Now Motley Fool contributor Rich Lumello recently talked with Matson about investing, success, and experiencing the American dream.

欢迎收听Motley Fool对话节目。

Welcome to Motley Fool Conversations.

我是本期主持人，Motley Fool撰稿人里奇·卢梅洛。

I'm your host, Motley Fool contributor Rich Lumello.

今天的嘉宾是一位毕生致力于帮助人们重新思考财富积累方式的人。

Today's guest is someone who spent his career helping people rethink the way they build wealth.

马克·马特森是一位企业家、投资者，马特森财富管理公司创始人，并著有《主街金钱》、《经纪人教我的肮脏忠诚谎言》以及最新出版的《体验美国梦》等多部书籍。

Mark Matson is an entrepreneur, investor, and founder of Matson Money, and the author of several books, including Main Street Money, The Dirty, Loyalty Lies My Broker Taught Me, and most recently, Experiencing the American Dream.

他的工作大量借鉴了学术研究和行为金融学，并以挑战传统华尔街思维模式而闻名，同时赋能普通投资者做出更明智、更有意识的决策。

His work draws heavily on academic research and behavioral finance, and he's known for challenging the traditional Wall Street mindset while empowering everyday investors to make smarter, more intentional decisions.

马克，欢迎来到The Motley Fool。

Mark, welcome to The Motley Fool.

很高兴和你在一起，里奇。

It's great to be with you, Rich.

非常感谢你抽时间参加节目。

Thank you so much for taking the time to come on.

正如开场白提到的，我们有很多内容要探讨。

And as the intro would indicate, there's a lot to get to.

但对于还不了解你完整故事的听众来说，你最初是如何——恕我直言——开始热衷于重新思考美国人的投资方式的呢？

But I guess for the listener who doesn't know your full story, how did you first become, for lack of a better word, you know, kinda passionate about rethinking how Americans invest?

是的。

Yeah.

就像许多不得不重新思考的人一样，我原来的方法行不通。

Like so many people that had to rethink things, what I was doing wasn't working.

我当时在Chubb Securities这家大型经纪自营商工作。

I went to work for a large broker dealer, Chubb Securities at the time.

他们非常专注于财务规划、保险和投资业务，我会让客户投资那些有二三十年业绩记录的主动管理型共同基金。

They're very, very large into financial planning, insurance, and investments, and I would put my clients in actively managed mutual funds, you know, that had twenty or even thirty year track records.

27岁时我就注意到，这些拥有长期优秀业绩记录的基金经理无法持续创造佳绩。

And I would notice at the age of 27 that these managers who had these great long track records weren't repeating.

我的客户每年因此亏损3%到5%，有时更糟，就因为他们追逐这些基金经理的历史业绩。

And my clients were losing money anywhere from three to 5% a year, sometimes even worse, trying to chase the track record of these managers.

我参加了旧金山的一场研讨会，那是Rex Sinfel和当时顶尖基金经理Donald Yachtman之间的辩论。

And I attended a workshop in San Francisco, a debate between Rex Sinfel and a guy named Donald Yachtman, who was one of the top money managers at the time.

辩论的焦点是：我们的市场是否低效到让聪明勇敢的人能持续战胜它，还是说市场相对有效，只有随机不可预测的人能暂时跑赢市场却无法持续？

And, the debate was, look, our market's so inefficient that beautiful, brave, smart people can consistently beat it, or is the market relatively efficient such that only random and unpredictable people beat the market and then they don't repeat their performance going forward?

这很大程度上解释了为什么选股、市场时机选择和追踪记录投资这些方法对我的客户都不奏效。

And that explained to a large degree why this whole thing of stock picking market timing and track record investing wasn't working for my clients.

你能用几句话概括一下你的核心投资理念吗？

How would you summarize your core investing philosophy in a couple of sentences?

是的。

Yeah.

第一点是理解市场是有效的。

Number one is that understanding that markets are efficient.

所有可知和可预测的信息都已反映在今天的价格中。

All the knowable and predictable information is factored into the price today.

因此，只有随机或不可预测的事件才会影响未来的价格变化。

Therefore, only random or unpredictable events change prices going forward.

第二点是收益来自资本成本，即每只股票都有其资本成本，这个筹集资金的风险数字等同于投资者的回报，然后你需要通过全球广泛分散投资来降低长期风险。

The second is that the returns come from the cost of capital, meaning that every stock has a cost of capital, a risk number of raising money that is the equivalent to the return to the investor, and then you got broadly diversified globally to reduce the risk long term.

我知道你说过投资者不需要试图比市场更聪明，而是要避免自作聪明。

I know you said that investors don't need to try to outsmart the market, but instead try to stop outsmarting themselves.

你这话是什么意思？

What do you mean by that?

能否举个例子说明投资者是如何试图自作聪明，以及如何避免这种情况？

And what's an example of a way an investor, you know, kind of tries to outsmart himself in a way he can, you know, kind of arrest that?

在书中我提到，人类大脑其实并不太适合做投资决策。

Well, in the book, I talk about the fact that the human brain is not situated very well for investing.

要知道，五千年前的洞穴墙壁上可找不到饼图或标准差这类东西。

You know, you don't go back five thousand years ago and find a pie chart and a standard deviation on the wall of a cave somewhere.

这对人类而言是近几百年才出现的新事物。

This is relatively new for human beings in the last couple hundred years.

而且人脑存在各种认知缺陷。

And there's all kinds of problems with the human brain.

比如熟悉度偏见。

One is familiarity bias.

我们总喜欢投资自己熟悉的股票。

We like to invest and buy stocks that we're familiar with.

后见之明偏差。

Hindsight bias.

我们会说，哇哦。

We say, oh, wow.

看看英伟达过去十年表现多出色。

Look how great NVIDIA did over the last ten years.

是啊，但那都是事后诸葛亮。

Well, yeah, but that's hindsight.

你没法坐时光机回到它大涨前买入。

You don't get to go back in a time machine and buy it right before it did its performance.

FOMO（错失恐惧症）。

FOMO, fear of missing out.

我们总想追逐热点。

We wanna chase what's hot.

我们总想跟风别人买什么。

We wanna chase what other people are buying.

从众偏见。

Hurting bias.

如果你的邻居都在这么做，如果电视上都在讨论，从众对斑马来说是好事，对投资者却是灾难。

If your neighbors are doing it, if they're talking about it on TV, hurting is great for zebra, terrible for investors.

当然，你还有本能和情绪的影响。

And then, of course, you have instincts and emotions.

情绪上，当行情上涨时我们会非常兴奋。

Emotionally, we're very excited when things go up.

我们往往会往那些东西里投入更多资金。

We tend to dump more money in those things.

而当我们亏损时，恐惧、愤怒、悲伤和痛苦会导致我们对资产处理极其不谨慎。

And then we have fear and anger, sadness, grief, when we lose money, and it causes us to be extremely imprudent with our assets.

人类自身的行为模式就是这样——即使我给你一个完美模型，告诉你就这样执行三十年并定期再平衡，过去三十年里我也没见过谁能真正做到。

And your own human behavior, even if I gave you the perfect model and said, just do this for thirty years and rebalance, I've never seen anyone be able to do it, pull it off over the last thirty years.

所以我认为，你最大的敌人就是自己的大脑。

So your own brain is, I think, your own worst enemy.

嘿，伙计们。

Hey, fools.

我们稍作休息，插播今天节目的赞助商信息。

We're taking a quick break for a word from our sponsor for today's episode.

房地产。

Real estate.

它世代以来都是财富积累的基石，但也常因三大维护问题——租客纠纷和房产税——成为投资者的主要烦恼来源。

It's been the cornerstone of wealth building for generations, but it's also often been a major headache for investors with three m maintenance calls, tenant disputes, and property taxes.

隆重介绍Fundrise旗舰基金：一个价值11亿美元的房地产投资组合，拥有阳光地带社区4000多套独栋住宅，330万平方英尺的热门工业设施，全部由经验丰富的专业团队管理。

Enter Fundrise's flagship fund, a $1,100,000,000 real estate portfolio with more than 4,000 single family homes in the Sunbelt communities, 3,300,000 square feet of in demand industrial facilities, all professionally managed by an experienced team.

旗舰基金汇聚了房地产最具吸引力的特质：长期增值潜力、通胀对冲能力，以及超越股市的多元化配置。

The flagship fund taps into some of real estate's most attractive qualities, long term appreciation potential, a hedge against inflation, and diversification beyond the stock market.

全中，全中，全中。

Check, check, and check.

还免去了繁琐的文件手续、巨额首付和耗尽心力的房东职责。

All without the complex paperwork, massive down payments, and soul sucking landlord duties.

访问fundrise.com/fool查看投资组合，了解历史回报，发现房地产投资可以变得多么简单。

Visit fundrise.com/fool to explore the portfolio, check out historical returns, and see just how much easier investing in real estate can be.

投资前请仔细考虑Fundrise旗舰基金的投资目标、风险、费用及开支。

Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Fundrise flagship fund before investing.

本基金及其他相关信息可在fundrise.com/flagship的招募说明书中查阅。

This and other information can be found in the fund's prospectus at fundrise.com/flagship.

此为付费广告。

This is a paid advertisement.

你的第一本书——我们稍后会谈到——大约二十年前出版。

Your first book, which we'll get to in a second, came out about twenty years ago.

你认为过去二十年投资界变化最大的是什么？

What do you think has changed the most in the investing world over the last two decades?

从你的角度看，又有哪些方面始终未变？

And what, from your perspective, hasn't changed at all?

是否与你最初开始写书时保持高度一致？

Is, you know, very consistent with when you first started writing books?

嗯，这是个非常棒的问题。

Well, that's a great what a great question.

我认为如果人们能承认错误，尤其是政客们，世界会变得更美好。

So I think the world would be a much better place if people could admit when they're wrong, especially politicians.

那会很有帮助。

That'd be helpful.

1991年我创办公司时，才27岁。

In 1991, when I started the company, I was 27 years old.

当时我可能有点天真地认为，这种学术化的投资方法论——有效市场理论、因子模型和现代投资组合理论如此显而易见，世界本该这样运作，人们会停止用钱赌博、停止投机，转而谨慎投资、保持纪律。但现实恰恰相反。

And I thought maybe a bit naively is that this academic methodology of investing, efficient market theory, factor model, and modern portfolio theory, that it was so obvious and so clear that this is the way the world had to function and work, that people would stop gambling with their money, they'd stop speculating, they'd prudently invest, they would be disciplined, and nothing has been further from the truth.

不仅看不到投资者这么做，我也没看到顾问们这么做。

Not only do I not see investors doing it, I don't see advisors doing it either.

说'分散投资'和'再平衡'很容易。

It's easy to say diversify and rebalance.

然而当市场大幅上涨时，顾问们往往会加倍押注那些高涨的资产类别。

However, when markets run way up, advisors tend to double down on the asset categories that are high.

例如现在，大多数投资组合都超配了美国大型科技公司。

For example, right now, most portfolios are overweighted to large US tech companies.

他们没有进行再平衡，反而在追逐已经高涨的资产。

They're not rebalancing, they're chasing more of what's high.

所以这种选股择时、追逐业绩的投资方式本应被摒弃，现实却恰恰相反。

So this idea of stock picking market timing, track record investing being destructive and getting away from it, it's been the exact opposite.

现在有更多的选股和择时行为，因为我们24小时被互联网和新闻节目轰炸，这在1991年是不存在的。

There's more stock picking, more market timing, because now we're bombarded twenty four seven with the Internet, with twenty four seven news programs we didn't used to have back then in 1991.

现在比1991年出现了更多奇特且具有破坏性的投资品种。

And now you have more exotic, destructive investments than you did in 1991.

现在我们拥有1500只ETF。

Now we have 1,500 ETFs.

其中99%的产品根本不该持有，因为它们纯粹是赌博。

99% of them, no one should actually own because they're just gambling.

还有比特币这种有害资产，因为它没有任何实际资产支撑。

We have Bitcoin, which is toxic because there's no assets actually backing it up.

我们有可以交易的大宗商品。

We have commodities you can trade.

你完全可以在玩DraftKings的同时，拿出手机登录Robinhood，整天交易股票。

You can literally take out your cell phone right next to your DraftKings, and you can get on Robinhood, and you can trade stocks all day long.

因此，这种终结投机、终结赌博，为人生目标审慎投资的理念，完全被技术和媒体劫持了，我认为现在的情况比以往更糟。

So this idea of ending speculation, ending gambling, and prudently investing for your life goals, that got completely hijacked by technology and the media, and I think it's worse now than it was worse.

我认为不变的是，现在战胜市场的难度和三十年前一样高。

I think what hasn't changed is it's no easier to beat the market than it was thirty years ago.

85%的主动型基金经理无法实现市场平均回报率。

85% of all active managers fail to deliver a market rate of return.

在那15%能在任何十年周期中走运的人里，他们未来持续这种表现的能力毫无相关性。

Of those fifteen percent that get lucky over any ten year period of time, there's zero correlation about their ability to continue that into the future.

所以市场依然保持着极高的效率。

So markets have stayed extremely efficient.

要战胜市场极其困难，对大多数投资者来说尝试这样做非常非常危险，这一点从未改变。

It's extremely hard to beat them, and it's very, very dangerous for most investors to try, and that hasn't changed.

你在书中提到，投资者被训练成将思考权委托给经纪人。

In the book, you talk about how investors are trained to kinda delegate their thinking to their brokers.

嗯，我想在2005年，显然有CNBC这样的平台，你获得的信息比十五年前要多得多。

Well, I guess in 2005, clearly, the CNBCs, and you had a lot more information than you might have had fifteen years prior to that.

但你认为现在情况还是这样吗，或者

But do you think that that's still the case, or

你觉得我们已经有所进化了吗？

do you think we've kind of evolved from there?

我特别能回答这个问题，因为我们每年为全美投资者管理着122亿美元资产。

Well, I know specifically answer this question because every year, we manage $12,200,000,000 for investors all over The United States.

我们每天都会分析投资组合。

And every day we analyze portfolios.

所以我非常清楚他们投资组合里的内容。

So I know exactly what they have in their portfolios.

大多数投资者持有的都是我称之为'科学怪人'式的拼凑型投资组合。

Most investors have what I call a Frankenstein portfolio.

他们可能持有那八家大型科技巨头中的六、七家股票。

They have maybe six or seven of the big magnificent eight in there.

他们有一些成长型共同基金。

They've got some growth mutual funds.

他们可能还持有一些大宗商品。

They might have some commodities.

他们可能投资了一些房地产投资信托基金。

They might have some REITs.

他们可能还配置了比特币。

They might have some Bitcoin.

于是某一年，这类资产表现亮眼。

And so one year, this asset looks good.

那只股票涨得好，我就买它。

All that stock's high, I'll buy that one.

比特币行情好，咱们就买比特币。

All Bitcoin's high, let's buy Bitcoin.

彼得·希夫告诉我黄金永远不会下跌，那我就买黄金。

All gold Peter Schiff told me gold's never gonna go down.

我要买那个。

I'm gonna buy that.

结果他们把这些垃圾全都塞进了投资组合。

So they end up putting all this garbage into their portfolio.

没人认真分析风险回报、标准差或投资组合的波动性。

No one seriously analyzes the risk return, the standard deviation, the volatility of the portfolio.

所以他们把这些事全干了。

So they're doing all of it.

他们在自己选股。

They're stock picking themselves.

他们在聘请顾问。

They're hiring advisors.

他们上晨星网，买那些五星级共同基金。

They're getting on Morningstar, and they're buying, you know, five star mutual funds.

他们在用比特币和加密货币赌博。

They're gambling with Bitcoin and crypto.

他们在投资大宗商品。

They're doing commodities.

我曾与诺贝尔奖得主法玛博士在一次访谈中，我问他：您怎么看所有这些技术？

So I was in an interview with doctor Fama, Nobel Prize winner, and I said, what do you think about all this technology?

他说：嗯，我认为它能让你比以往任何时候都更快地亏钱。

And he said, well, I think it's you can lose your money faster than ever before.

我同意这个说法。

I concur with that statement.

但是Rich，他们什么都做。

But Rich, they're doing it all.

而且这一切毫无章法可言，除了过去两三年里涨得好的东西，砰地一下。

And it there's no rhyme or reason to any of it other than whatever was high over the last two or three years, bam.

那就是他们投钱的地方。

That's what they're putting their money in.

对。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

而且，你知道，顺着这个思路，你也谈到了活动偏见，那种感觉就是，如果你在做些什么，如果你在...我不想用'频繁交易'这个词因为是自己的钱，但如果你在积极操作，总比什么都不做强，这怎么会损害收益呢？

And, you know, kind of along those lines, you also talk a bit about activity bias, the feeling that, you know, if you're doing something, if you're if you're I I don't wanna say the word churning because it's your own But if you're in there actively doing something that's better than nothing, how does that hurt returns?

你觉得这个问题在二十年后的今天仍然存在吗？

And and do you think that that's still an issue, you know, kinda twenty years on?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得你说得对，Rich。

I think I think you're right, Rich.

我认为这绝对是在频繁操作自己的账户。

I think it's churning your own account for sure.

频繁操作。

Churning it.

你知道的，你去拉斯维加斯。

You know, you go to Vegas.

首先，你不能直接去酒店房间。

First of all, you can't just go straight to your hotel room.

他们会让你在赌场里绕来绕去。

They they make you wind your way through the casino.

对吧？

Right?

希望他们能吸引你，让你在去房间的路上就开始赌博。

Hopefully, they'll grab you and you'll start gambling on your way to your room.

我们过去拉老虎机的摇臂，但现在按按钮就行。

We used to pull the the arm on the games, but now you push the button.

那些喜欢玩老虎机的人乐此不疲。

And it's whirls around people who love playing slot machines.

他们觉得按按钮越多就越有掌控感。

They feel like they have more control the more they push the button.

现实情况是，由于赌博和投机的本质，他们实际上承担了更多风险，且更加失控。

The reality is because it's gambling and speculation, they actually have more risk and they're more out of control.

你知道，这就像喝酒一样。

You know, it's like drinking.

越是沉迷其中，就越会失去控制。

The more you do it, the more out of control you become.

人们总觉得自己至少在做些什么，以为能掌控自己的投资组合，但事实并非如此。

And people feel like because they're at least doing something that they're having some control over their portfolio, but it's not true.

他们追逐热门股，所以风险更大。

They're chasing what's hot, so it's more dangerous.

他们需要支付交易佣金。

They're incurring commissions.

他们还要承担买卖价差成本。

They're incurring bid ask spread cost.

即便股票真的赚了钱，现在他们还得缴纳资本利得税。

If they did make a gain on the stock, now they're paying capital gains tax.

所以这种频繁交易行为，可能会让你损失惨重。

So this whole churning, you can lose a lot of money for churning.

而且通常他们所做的只是盲目追逐过去三到五年热门的投资，没有任何分析。

And and normally what they're doing is they're just chasing what's been hot over the last three to five years, having no analysis.

我经常问投资者：风险重要吗？

I always ask investors, is risk important?

他们会说：重要。

And they say, yeah.

然后我说：好的，那你们如何衡量风险呢？

And I said, okay, well, how do you measure risk?

他们就回答：呃，我不知道怎么衡量。

And they go, oh, I don't know how to measure it.

我接着说：那你觉得能控制一个你都无法衡量的东西吗？

I said, well, do you think you can control something you can't even measure?

他们就会说：不，我觉得不能。

And they're like, no, I don't think I can.

这是个非常好的思考角度。

And that's a very good way to look at it.

但你可以通过标准差和波动性来衡量风险，永远不要投资那些你实际上并不完全了解其风险的东西。

But you measure it with standard deviation and volatility, and you never wanna invest in something that you don't actually fully understand the risk of.

你如何定义与金钱相关的富足？

How do you define abundance as it relates to money?

富足对每个人来说定义都不同。

Abundance is different for everybody.

在没有明确金钱目的的情况下，多少钱都不够。

So in the light of no purpose for money, there's no amount of money that's enough.

所以如果你不仅对金钱没有目标，对生活也没有目标的话，因为你对金钱的目标就是你的人生目标。

So if you don't have a purpose in not just your money, but for your life, because your purpose for money is your purpose for life.

如果我对生活和金钱都没有目标，那么多少钱都不会够。

If I don't have a purpose for my money in my life, then no amount of money will ever be enough.

就算中了彩票，赢了一亿美元，也还是不够。

You win the lottery, win a $100,000,000, that's not enough.

不会让你快乐。

Won't make you happy.

但如果我为生活和金钱设定了目标，比如为他人创造爱或自由，那么从技术上讲，我甚至不需要钱。

If I have a purpose though for my life and for my money, for example, creating love or creating freedom for other people, then I technically don't even need money.

你知道吗，如果我仅仅满足温饱，过着最基本的生活，我也可以去医院看望病人，握着他们的手，花时间陪伴他们，确保他们感受到被爱和关心。

You know, if I didn't have if I hard just had enough to eat and just to, you know, bare minimum in life, I could visit a person in the hospital, hold their hand, you know, spend time with them, make sure that they know they're loved and cared about.

这是人们早已明白的道理，无论是甘地、特蕾莎修女，还是其他那些财富极少却拥有充满丰盛、爱与联结的精彩人生的人。

And this is a lesson that people have known, whether it's Gandhi or Mother Teresa or other people that had very, very little wealth, but had amazing lives full of abundance and love and relatedness to other people.

所以专注于目标。

So focus on the purpose.

不要专注于金钱。

Don't focus on the money.

专注于帮助他人。

Focus on helping other people.

不要专注于法拉利。

Don't focus on the Ferrari.

你可能会得到一辆法拉利。

You might get a Ferrari.

你帮助足够多的人。

You help enough people.

这是资本主义的伟大之处之一。

That's one of the great things capitalism.

如果你帮助足够多的人，你就会赚到钱。

If I if you help enough people, you will make money.

所以专注于提出好问题，专注于大量行动，专注于你的思维模式，并识别出那些让你无力的思维模式，思考如何改变这些模式以赋予我采取行动的力量？

So focus on asking great questions, focus on a massive amount of action, focus on what your screens are, and recognize when you have a disempowering screen, and how can I change that screen so that it gives me power to take action?

是的。

Yeah.

对于一位从零开始或刚步入投资领域的听众来说，你认为积累财富的第一步应该是什么？

And for a listener who is starting from zero or is very early in their, you know, kind of investing days, what's the first step you would argue for, you know, kind of building wealth?

定期定额投资。

Dollar cost average.

如果你刚刚起步，二十多岁或三十多岁，记住要先为自己存钱。

If you're just starting out, if you're just starting out, you're in your twenties or thirties, you know, pay yourself first.

这是我父亲很早以前教我的道理。

This is one from my dad way back in the day.

但即使每月只能存200或100美元，也要现在就开始。

But even if it's 200 a month, 100 a month, just start.

不要等到还清学生贷款才开始。

Don't wait until you've paid off your school debt.

不要等到还清信用卡债务才开始。

Don't wait until you paid off your credit card.

别听戴夫·拉姆齐那套。

Don't listen to Dave Ramsey.

听着，现在就开始为自己存钱，立即行动。

Look, start paying yourself and start doing it now.

要知道，你们大多数人从今往后都会背负某种债务直到离世，所以习惯它吧。

You know, most of you are gonna have some level of debt from now till the day you die, so get used to it.

但现在就开始存钱吧，因为随着时间的推移，复利会产生巨大的差异。

But start putting away your money right now because with compound interest over time, it's gonna make a big difference.

别在手机上下载Robin Hood。

And don't get Robin Hood on your phone.

别在手机上下载DraftKings。

Don't get DraftKings on your phone.

别跟着Z世代那套赌博和投机的新方法乱花钱。

Don't go down this new gen z methodology of gambling and speculating with your money.

这不值得。

It's not worth it.

也别管你朋友在做什么，因为他们自己都不知道在干嘛。

And ignore what your friends are doing, because they don't have any idea what they're doing.

是啊。

Yeah.

这不是游戏。

It's not a game.

对于一位可能不是初学者，但也不到60岁的听众来说，假设他们大约三四十岁，他们如何在不沉迷于数字的情况下，判断自己的财务状况是否正常？

For a listener who is maybe not a beginner, but is also not, you know, kind of 60 years old, let's you know, let's say they're kind of in their thirties or their forties, how do they know if they're on track financially without, you know, kind of obsessing over the numbers?

无论是距离退休还有多远，有哪些衡量标准？

Whether it's how close am I to being able to retire, what are the metrics?

显然，每个人情况不同，但就大体而言。

And and obviously, everybody's different, but just kind of broadly speaking.

这是个很好的问题。

That's a great question.

现实是这几乎是个无法回答的问题。

The reality is that's almost an impossible question to answer.

几乎不可能回答，因为首先你无法预知二十年后的人生境遇。

It's almost impossible because number one is you don't know what life circumstances you're gonna have in twenty years.

你完全不知道未来的开支会是多少。

You have no idea what your expenses are gonna be.

你根本不清楚医疗保险会有什么变化。

You have no idea what health insurance is gonna do.

你完全不知道社会保障制度会有什么变化。

You have no idea what Social Security is gonna do.

你对实际通货膨胀的走向几乎一无所知。

You have very little idea what real inflation is gonna do.

所以你就像在非常浑浊的水中游泳。

So you it's very it's a very murky water to swim in.

假设说，哇，如果我计算出需要8.5%的回报率才能在65岁实现目标——理财规划师喜欢玩这种数字游戏，但这并不是个好游戏。

And to assume that, wow, if I just I calculated I need eight and a half percent rate of return to reach my goal at age 65, that that's financial planners like to play that game, but that's not a very good game to play.

他们还会说，哦，按照4%法则来计算。

Another thing they will say is, you know, oh, count on using 4%, the 4% rule.

如果我有一百万美元，那每年就能给我带来四万美元的收入。

If I have a million dollars, that's gonna give me $40,000 a year of income.

我想对大多数人说的是：

Here's what I would say to most people.

永远不要退休。

Don't ever retire.

我认为退休这个概念已经过时了，那是属于有固定收益养老金计划、在通用或福特工作三十年然后退休的生产线工人的时代，那已是往昔岁月。

I think the idea of retirement is an outdated thing that when you had a defined benefit pension plan or you worked for GM or you worked for Ford and you were on the line for thirty years and then you retire, I think that was a bygone age.

但我也认为退休是通往死亡的配方。

But I think also retirement is a recipe for death.

你会发现人们的健康状况、活力和生活质量在退休后往往会急剧下降。

You would look at people's health, their vitality, their lives tends to dramatically go down when they retire.

我会尝试选择一份工作、职业或咨询事业。

I would try to pick a job, a career, consulting.

选择能让你保持热情直到生命最后一刻的事业。

I'd pick something that can keep you passionate until the day that you die.

明白吗？

You know?

如果你最终成为千万富翁，拥有三千万美元，那很好。

If you end up being a multimillionaire and you have $30,000,000, great.

想退休就退休吧。

Retire if you want.

但如果没有，就找到你热爱的事情，永远不要停止去做它。

But if not, find something you love and don't and don't ever stop doing it.

关于金钱，你希望更多人问你什么问题？或者单纯关于金钱的问题？

What question do you wish more people asked you about money or just asked about money?

比如，你希望人们对什么话题更感兴趣？

Like, what question do you wish people were more curious about?

这是个好问题。你已经问了很多很棒的问题。

That's a great You've you've you've asked so many great questions.

我从未被问过这个问题。

I have never had that question.

让我想想。

I have never let me think.

我希望他们问我什么呢？

What do I wish they would ask me about?

我希望他们问我如何用金钱创造生活的满足感、爱与连接，因为金钱常常会引发嫉妒、愤怒和怨恨，甚至在家庭成员之间也是如此。

I wish they would ask me how to use money as a way to create fulfillment and love and connection in life because money so many times can cause jealousy, anger, and resentment, even in family members.

如果人们能更多地关注如何将金钱作为一种强大工具来让世界变得更美好，这将是一个极好的问题，一个值得用一生去解答的问题。

So if people would focus more on how can I use money as a powerful tool to make the world a better place, that would be an awesome question, one that's worth spending a lifetime answering?

这是

It's a

很棒的回答。

great answer.

好的，马克·马特森，非常感谢您抽出时间。

Well, Mark Matson, thank you so much for the time.

正如我开头提到的，他写了很多值得一读的书，还有很多其他渠道可以找到他的作品。

Obviously, as I, you know, kind of said at the beginning, he's he's written a number of books that are, you know, great to read and and there's so many other, you know, kind of mediums where you can you can find his work.

马克，非常感谢您参加Motley Fool对话节目。

Mark, thank you very much for coming on Motley Fool Conversations.

非常感谢。

Thanks so much.

真是太棒了。

That was a blast.

正如

As

一如既往，节目嘉宾讨论的股票可能很有趣，但The Motley Fool可能会给出正式推荐或反对意见。

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因此，请不要仅凭听到的内容买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

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这里是Motley Full Money团队，我是Matt Greer。

For the Motley Full Money team, I'm Matt Greer.

感谢收听，我们明天见。

Thanks for listening, and we will see you tomorrow.