当前市场波动与我们看到的机遇

市场波动又回来了，但我们该何去何从？

Market volatility is back, but where do we go from here?

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Everybody needs money.

所以它才叫钱啊。

That's why they call it money.

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From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.

欢迎收听《傻瓜金钱》节目。

Welcome to Motley Fool Money.

我是特拉维斯·威廉，与丹·卡普林格和约翰·夸斯特一同主持。

I'm Travis William joined by Dan Kapplinger and John Quast.

我认为本周投资者的主题词就是波动性。

I I think the topic of the week for investors is volatility.

我们昨天甚至经历了一些巨大的波动。

We've had some huge moves even yesterday.

周四，市场开盘上涨，最终却以下跌收盘。

Thursday, the market started up, ended up down.

如果你看到纳斯达克指数下跌了2%。

If you're looking at the Nasdaq down 2%.

我知道我的投资组合遭受了重创。

I know my portfolio took a huge hit.

丹，面对这样的时刻，我们应该从中吸取什么教训？

Dan, what should we be taking from a moment like this?

因为我们刚刚结束财报季。

Because we're just getting out of earning season.

看起来财报季的表现相当不错。

It seemed like earning season was pretty good.

英伟达的财报是周三收盘后发布的。

NVIDIA's earnings were Wednesday after the market closed.

这些看起来相当稳健。

Those seem pretty solid.

然后突然就崩盘了，但这种情况似乎每隔几天就会发生一次。

And then suddenly the bottom fell out, but it seems like this is happening every few days.

不是大涨就是大跌。

It's either up big or down big.

这到底是怎么回事？

What in the world is going on?

欢迎来到每轮牛市都会经历的拉锯战阶段，特拉维斯。

Welcome to the tug of war phase that every bull market goes through, Travis.

我得告诉你，这很正常。

I I gotta tell you, this is normal.

这很正常，各位。

This is normal folks.

可能看起来不像那么回事。

It might not seem like it.

这或许不合常理，但我们几乎每次都能看到这种情况。

It might not make sense but we see this just about every time.

你知道这周早些时候，大家都在担心英伟达会发布什么消息。

You know early in the week everybody was nervous about what Nvidia was gonna say.

他们能否不负众望？

Were they gonna be able to live up to the hype?

他们能否超越预期？

Were they gonna be able to beat expectations?

黄仁勋对于做出高预期并不陌生，这些预期往往让期望值飙升，但周三下午股市收盘后，英伟达基本兑现了承诺，各位，看起来我们即将迎来重大更新。

Jensen Huang, no stranger to making high predictions as far as, causing expectations to go through the roof, but largely Nvidia delivered Wednesday afternoon after the market closed, everybody, it looked like we were going to get a huge update.

将会有一波大幅的释然性反弹。

There's going to be a huge relief rally.

周四早盘确实出现了约30分钟的释然性反弹。

We did get a relief rally for about thirty minutes on Thursday morning.

这反弹没持续多久。

It didn't last long.

然后一切又开始回落。

And then everything starts going back down.

大家都有点像是，哦，好吧，哎呀，但如果，嗯，确实。

Everybody's sort of like, oh, well, gee, but what if, well, if yeah, sure.

英伟达看起来很棒，但如果我们看不到这些二阶效应传导到其他AI硬件芯片、软件供应商呢？

Nvidia is looking great, but what if we don't get those second order effects drop down into other providers of AI hardware chips, software.

如果这些依赖AI提升生产力的公司无法看到投资回报怎么办？

What if these companies that are relying on AI to increase productivity aren't able to see returns on their investment?

如果市场上较弱的参与者开始说，哎呀，也许AI并不像宣传的那么神奇呢？

What if some of the weaker hands in the play start to say, well, gee, maybe AI isn't everything that it was cracked up to be.

也许我们需要多元化我们的策略。

Maybe we need to diversify our strategies.

每当这些趋势建立在单一概念基础上时，它们就很容易因对该趋势信心的动摇而变得脆弱。

Whenever you have these these these trends that are based on a single concept as soon they're very vulnerable to any shaking of confidence in that trend.

因为我们目前还不清楚真正的价值所在。

Because we simply don't know quite yet what the there there is.

我是说，我们经历过互联网时代，那时确实存在实质内容，但花了很长时间才弄明白。

I mean, we went through this with the Internet where there was definitely a there there, but it took a long time to figure it out.

我们现在对人工智能仍处于摸索阶段。

We're still sort of in figuring it out phase with AI.

至少在技术层面，是不是应该这样看待？

Is that sort of the way to think about at least that tech side?

技术展现其全部潜力需要数年时间，而我们却试图以日、周、月为单位进行交易。

It takes years for the tech to show its full potential, but we're trying to trade on a daily, on a weekly, on a monthly basis.

这种时间框架的错位正是引发所有波动的根源。

That time frame disconnect is what causes all this volatility.

没错。

Yes.

约翰，你认为这种情况在哪个层级算正常？恐惧与贪婪又扮演了什么角色？

John, what level are you thinking about this as normal, and how does fear and greed play into this?

是的。

Yeah.

正如Dan指出的，我们确实处于正常范围内。

As Dan points out, we're definitely in normal territory.

不过我要说的是，从历史平均水平来看，我们仍处于轻度波动区间。

I will say, though, that we're still in mild volatility territory when we're looking at the historical averages.

如果你看十年走势图，2018年末、2020年初以及2022年大部分时间确实存在更明显的波动聚集。

And if you look at the ten year chart, there's definitely higher clusters of volatility in late twenty eighteen, early twenty twenty, and for much of 2022.

我觉得有趣的是你谈到恐惧与贪婪。

What's interesting to me is you talk about fear and greed.

我们目前正处于极度恐惧模式，恐惧贪婪指数昨天创下6的新低。消费者情绪方面，消费者信心指数已跌至五十年最低点。

We are in extreme fear mode right now, and the fear and greed index hit a new low yesterday of six In consumer sentiment, if you look at the consumer sentiment index, we're we're hitting fifty year lows.

而11月份的消费者预期同比暴跌了36%。

And consumer expectations in November dropped 36% year over year.

最让我着迷的是，虽然当前存在波动，但市场仍处在历史高点5%范围内时，人们就已经开始恐慌了。

What is so fascinating to me is if you look at where we are, yes, there is some volatility, but not anything near like what we've seen in the market is within 5% of its all time high and people are already panicking.

我认为投资者某种程度上在自我催眠，觉得一切都崩溃了，但实际上整体情况仍然相当良好。

I I think that investors are kind of gaslighting themselves here thinking that, everything is falling apart when really when you look at things, it's all quite good still.

摩根士丹利有句名言说得很好。

And there's a great Morgan House quote about this.

每隔五到七年，投资者就会忘记衰退每隔五到七年就会发生一次。

Every five to seven years, investors forget that recessions happen every five to seven years.

我不是说我们现在正处于衰退，但投资者似乎有健忘症，认为这完全不正常。

I'm not saying that we're in a recession right now, but it seems like investors have amnesia that this is completely normal.

从历史角度看，情况可能会比现在糟糕得多，才会达到我们通常所见的那种程度。

And historically speaking, it could get a a lot worse than it is right now before, before we hit anything near what we usually see.

丹，那个恐惧与贪婪指数很有意思，因为当市场接近历史高点时却出现极度恐惧，这有点疯狂。

Dan, that fear and greed index, I think, is so interesting because going to an extreme fear level when the market is near an all time high seems a little bit wild.

我从1995年就开始投资了。

I have been through I started investing 1995.

所以我经历过互联网泡沫破裂。

So I've been through the the .com burst.

我对2008和2009年记忆犹今。

I remember distinctly 2008 and 2009.

我是说，那时候的恐惧与贪婪指数会是多少呢？

I mean, what would that fear and greed index be at that point?

就像，你知道的，完全超出图表范围。

Like, you know, just completely off the charts.

而且大多数投资者，你知道的，未必经历过那个阶段的投资。

And and most investors, you know, didn't necessarily weren't investing through that phase.

那么这些数据和那种程度的恐惧如何影响你对市场的看法呢？

So how does that data and that level of fear play into the way that you're thinking about the market?

因为约翰说得对。

Because John's right.

很多消费者数据并不乐观，但你看像纳斯达克100指数、标普500指数这些，都是你在互联网或晚间新闻上会看到的指数。

A lot of the consumer data is not great, but you look at things like indexes, the Nasdaq 100, the S and P five hundred, these are the indexes that you would see on, on the Internet or on the nightly news.

它们由科技股主导，而科技行业表现良好。

They're dominated by technology, and technology is doing fine.

表现不佳的是餐饮业，而且你知道，塔吉特上个季度的业绩相当疲软。

What's not doing fine is restaurants and, you know, Target had a pretty weak quarter.

那么，数据的这种拉锯战、消费者情绪与科技公司盈利良好的矛盾如何解释呢？

So how does that push and pull of data, consumers, sentiment, but yet, you know, tech earnings are good?

这对你来说意味着什么？

How does how does that all play into it for you?

我有几点看法，特拉维斯。

Couple points, Travis.

我认为约翰提到的思维方式很有道理，在这种情形下我喜欢提醒投资者：当市场处于高位时，他们往往会因为害怕亏损而恐慌。

I think that John brought up some mindset and the mindset point that I like to remember situations like this is investors tend to get scared when markets are at tops because they don't wanna lose money.

他们眼看着投资组合增值。

They've seen their portfolios rise.

他们心里有个投资组合峰值的概念。

They have an idea of like what their top portfolio value was.

一旦组合价值开始下跌，他们就会感受到亏损。

As soon as that portfolio value starts to go down, they feel that loss.

他们对亏损的感受会更强烈

They feel the loss more

即便这不是实际的损失，

even if it's not a real loss,

即便他们尚未锁定损失，即便没有卖出，即便只是经纪账户上网站显示的数字变动。

even if it's not something that they've locked in, even if they've not sold it, even if it's just the brokerage, you know, the the the number on their brokerage page on the website.

他们会觉得，我之前是这个数字，现在却少了2万。

They're sort of like, I was at this number and now I'm at this number minus 20,000.

这感觉糟透了。

That's no good.

尽管一个月或两个月前上涨途中他们也曾处于这个数字，但下跌时的感受截然不同。

Even though they were at that number a month ago or two months ago on the way up, it just feels different coming down on the way down.

所以关键要记住：我们承受损失时的痛苦感，远超过投资组合上涨时获得的喜悦。

And so that's, that's the thing to remember is we feel losses much more painfully than the amount of joy that we get when the portfolio is going up.

丹，你会采取什么措施来规避这种心理影响吗？

Are there things that you do Dan to insulate yourself from that?

你有固定的投资节奏吗？

Is there a regular cadence that you invest?

你不卖出吗？

Do you not sell?

你会保留一些现金在场边观望吗？

Do you keep some cash on the sidelines?

作为一名投资者，你如何处理这种情况？

What how do you handle that as an investor?

因为我觉得我们都深有同感。

Because I think we all feel exactly what you just said.

我认为关键在于做好两件事。

The key I think is to have two things.

一是保持规律性的投资节奏。

One is to have that regular thing going.

如果你正在加仓市场，就持续加仓，不要拖延。

So if you're adding to the market, just keep adding to the market, don't put it off.

不要说'这个月行情看起来不妙'之类的话。

Don't say, oh, this month looks bad.

就对自己说，是的，总会有那么几个月，总会有那么几个月，我会遇到一个，那将会是在市场最高点的时候。

Just say, yeah, I'm gonna get one of these months, one of these months, I'm gonna get one, it's gonna have been right at the top.

我可能会显得很蠢，但下个月价格就会低得多，结果证明那其实是个非常明智的决定。

I'm gonna look stupid, but then the next month it's gonna be much lower and that's gonna turn out to be a really smart thing to do.

我认为另一件必须做的事，是提前为这些下跌时期做好准备。

The other thing I think you have to do is be prepared in advance for when these downturns are gonna happen.

如果你现在还没准备好而它已经发生了，那就记下你当时的感受，记下你的反应和想采取的行动。

If you haven't prepared for it now and it's already happening, write down what your feelings were, write down what your reaction was, what you wanted to do.

牢记这一点，因为了解自己是学习应对此类困境的最佳方式，避免重蹈覆辙。

Keep that in mind because knowing yourself is the best way to learn from difficult situations like this, avoid making the mistakes.

如果你犯了错，结果证明是你不愿重复的行为，就把它写下来并妥善保存，这样当类似情况再次出现时——无论是明年还是五年后——在你作为投资者的一生中，这种情况会多次发生。

And if you made a mistake and it turns out to have been something you don't want to repeat writing it down and having it accessible so that when this situation comes up again, whether it's next year, five years from now, it's gonna happen a bunch of times during your lifetime as an investor.

这样你就能记住自己当时的做法。

That way you'll remember what you did.

你不会两次犯同样的错误。

You won't make the same mistakes twice.

我想去市场风险所在之处。

I wanna go to where risks are in the market.

我们将在下一部分稍微讨论一下机会，但我看到市场中有一些领域。

We're we're gonna talk a little bit about opportunities in the next segment, but I there are areas of the market.

我看自己的投资组合，从2022或2023年的低点到现在2025年已经大幅上涨。

I look at my own portfolio that are up significantly in 2025 from the lows in, you know, 2022 or 2023.

约翰，你在哪些领域看到了机会，可以说‘我想筹集一些现金’？

John, where are you looking that there's maybe opportunities to say, you know what, I wanna raise some cash.

就像丹说的，如果市场进一步下跌，我希望能够积极应对。

Like Dan said, I wanna be able to be aggressive if the market does drop more.

哪些领域可能有这样的机会，可以说‘这个行业、这家公司的风险状况对我来说有点过热了，或许我应该适当减仓’？

Where's there maybe some opportunities to say, you know what, this risk profile of this sector, this industry, this company has gotten a little bit hot for me, maybe I'm gonna take a little bit off the table.

这是个有趣的问题。

It's an interesting question.

我认为确实需要逐个企业来评估，尽量避免笼统的行业分析。

I think that you do have to take it on a on a business by business basis, try to avoid the the broad sweeping sector analysis.

我是说，如果有一家公司你对其长期业务前景失去信心，显然那就是筹集现金的好选择。

I mean, if there's a there's a company that you're losing faith in the in the long term prospects of the business, I mean, obviously, that's a that's a good choice for for raising some cash.

但总的来说，如果要找普遍适用的建议，能源领域目前确实存在风险，具体取决于公司。

But I would say that generally speaking, if you are looking for general takeaways, you know, energy, there's definitely some risks in energy right now depending on the company.

能源行业的前景非常光明，但部分企业的估值已经过高。

The the outlook for for energy is extremely bright, but some of those businesses, I think the valuation has run away.

我认为涉及AI基础设施的周期性行业也是如此。

I would say the cyclical businesses as well when it comes to AI infrastructure.

很多通常利润率较低的企业，在当前周期却因需求旺盛而获得极高利润。

There's a lot of businesses that typically have lower margins, let's just say, in a normal cycle, right now are experiencing extremely high margins just because there's so much demand.

问题在于这种高需求能持续多久？

The question is how long will that demand be high?

因为可以合理预期，需求终将回归正常水平，利润率也会回落，届时就需要基于正常盈利水平而非峰值来估值。

Because at some point, it would be reasonable to assume that the demand is going to go back down to more normal levels, the profit margins will go back down to normal levels, in which case you need to value the business based on that more normalized earnings, not peak earnings.

因此对两者来说

And so both for both

在这两个领域，你指的是均值回归最终会发生。

of those segments, you're talking about mean reversion will eventually happen.

我认为最合理的预期是，是的，最终会回归到正常水平。

I would say that's the most reasonable thing to expect is that, yeah, you're gonna go back to what is normal at some point.

问题是什么时候会发生这种回归？

The question is when will that be?

丹，市场中有哪些潜在风险？

Dan, where are their potential risks in the market?

是消费者方面吗？

Is it consumers?

是人工智能领域吗？

Is it AI?

还是科技行业？

Is it tech?

现在风险很多，很难准确指出。历史上你通常可以指向某个特定领域说，对，你该担心的就是人工智能，因为AI正在主导一切。

There's a lot of risk and it's hard right now to pinpoint, you know, historically you've been able to like point to one sector and say, yes, what you ought to be worried about is say AI because AI is dominating everything.

但现在的问题是，你不能仅仅指向科技板块就说那是AI的问题，因为如果你担忧AI，你需要担心的不仅是直接从事AI业务的科技公司，还包括所有那些从AI投资后续影响中受益的第二梯队企业。

But the problem now is that you can't just point to the tech sector and say that's AI because if you're worried about AI, you have to be worried not just about the tech companies that are the direct pure plays, but also all of these second order companies that are benefiting from the follow on impact of AI investment.

我的意思是，我们在各类传统上被视为防御性行业的公用事业板块中都看到了这种现象。

I mean, we're seeing that in all kinds of sectors that you would think of as being traditionally defensive utilities.

最典型的例子就是公用事业股，它们向来被视为极度谨慎投资者的避风港。

The best example of this utilities have this reputation for being a place where extremely cautious investors go.

你能获得丰厚的股息收益。

You get a big dividend yield.

本金损失风险很低，但你已经看到许多公用事业公司，尤其是那些涉足核能等高增长潜力领域的，股价出现了大幅上涨。

You don't have very much risk of losing principle, but you've seen a number of utilities, especially those that are exposed to potentially higher growth areas like nuclear energy, get really big share price increases.

因此它们在很多方面对AI故事引发的波动性暴露程度，丝毫不亚于英伟达这样的股票。

And so they're just as exposed to volatility in the AI story in many ways as a stock like Nvidia.

所以这是估值风险，而不一定是运营风险。

And so it's a valuation risk, not necessarily an operational risk.

没错。

Right.

我是说，这些公司不一定会停止供电，但过去十二个月里它们价值增长的大部分，源于市场预期其业务覆盖范围将远超过当前规模。

I mean, these companies aren't necessarily gonna I mean, they're not gonna stop providing electricity, but a lot of the increase in their value over the past twelve months has come from the expectation that operationally their footprint's gonna be a whole lot wider than it is right now.

任何对长期发展前景（十年、十五年后）产生质疑的问题，都将对股价造成不成比例的负面影响。

And any question that causes doubt in that long term story, ten years, fifteen years down the road is gonna have an outsized negative impact on on the stock price.

稍后回来时，我们将讨论比特币从不到两个月前的125,000美元跌至84,000美元的情况。

When we come back, we are gonna talk a little bit about Bitcoin down to $84,000 from a 125,000 less than two months ago.

那么比特币发生了什么？我们在市场中看到了哪些机会？

So what's going on with Bitcoin, and where are we seeing opportunities in the market?

您正在收听的是Motley Fool Money节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

嘿，各位傻瓜们。

Hey, fools.

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旗舰基金汇聚了房地产最具吸引力的特质：长期增值潜力、对冲通胀能力，以及超越股市的多元化配置。

The flagship fund taps into some of real estate's most attractive qualities, long term appreciation potential, a hedge against inflation, and diversification beyond the stock market.

全中，全中，还是全中。

Check, check, and check.

完全无需复杂文书、巨额首付和耗尽心力的房东职责。

All without the complex paperwork, massive down payments, and soul sucking landlord duties.

访问fundrise.com/fool查看投资组合，查阅历史回报，了解房地产投资能有多省心。

Visit fundrise.com/fool to explore the portfolio, check out historical returns, and see just how much easier investing in real estate can be.

投资前请仔细考量Fundrise旗舰基金的投资目标、风险、费用及支出。

Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Fundrise Flagship Fund before investing.

这些及其他信息可在基金的招募说明书中查阅，网址为fundraise.com/flagship。

This and other information can be found in the Fund's prospectus at fundraise.com/flagship.

这是一则付费广告。

This is a paid advertisement.

欢迎回到Motley Full Money节目。

Welcome back to Motley Full Money.

过去几个月里，随着市场避险情绪升温，一个疯狂的趋势是比特币价格彻底崩盘了。

One of the wild trends over the past couple of months as we've had this a little bit of a risk off trade is that Bitcoin has absolutely cratered.

十月份时，比特币价格还维持在124,000至125,000美元每枚。

October, Bitcoin was at 124,000, a 125,000 per token.

就在我们录制节目时，它刚跌破每枚84,000美元。

As we're recording, it just fell below $84,000 per token.

顺便说一句，相比过去十年、过去五年，这个价格仍然上涨了很多。

By the way, that's still up a lot over the past decade, over the past five years.

所以如果这是你的长期投资，你仍然获得了非常可观的收益。

So if this was a your long term investment, you've still done extremely well.

但是，约翰，这是怎么回事？

But, John, what's what's going on here?

比特币是否存在结构性问题？

Is there something structural going on with Bitcoin?

我知道加密货币似乎也淡出了人们的视线。

I know that crypto has kind of fallen off the map too.

看起来区块链技术正在进步。

It seems like the blockchain is improving.

虽然发生了许多有趣的事情，但这并未转化为加密货币价值的提升，尤其是比特币。

There's a lot of interesting things going on, but that hasn't translated to higher crypto values, especially with Bitcoin.

是啊。

Yeah.

确实如此。

That's so true.

我认为，除了加密货币正常的涨跌波动外，我们现在在比特币上看到的很多现象，包括大量强制平仓的情况，而且我不确定我们能否给出一个确切的数字。

I think a lot of what we're seeing right now in Bitcoin, besides the normal ebb and flow when it comes to cryptocurrency, there are a lot of forced liquidations right now with Bitcoin, and I don't know if we can put a number on it exactly.

那么，强制清算具体是指什么？

And and what exactly is a forced liquidation?

如果你借钱投资比特币，而比特币价格下跌，最终会有人迫使你卖出部分比特币或向账户存入更多资金。

If you borrow money to invest in Bitcoin and the price of Bitcoin goes down, eventually, someone is gonna make you sell some of that Bitcoin or deposit more money into your account.

你必须证明自己有能力偿还债务。

You've got to show that you can cover what you owe.

所以

And so

因为经纪商或Coinbase这类平台不会承担你持有比特币头寸的风险。

because the brokerage or the the, you know, Coinbase isn't taking isn't taking any risk on you having a Bitcoin position.

完全正确。

Exactly right.

他们是在转移风险。

They're putting that risk.

他们把风险留给了你。

They're keeping it on you.

所以，没错，如果你借钱买比特币然后价格下跌，又无法通过其他方式补仓，你就被迫得卖出那些比特币。

And so, yeah, if you borrow money to buy Bitcoin and it goes down and you can't cover in some other way, you're going to be forced to sell that Bitcoin.

事实上，你甚至没有选择权。

In fact, you don't even make the choice.

他们替你做了决定。

They make it for you.

所以我们看到很多这种情况。

And so we're seeing a lot of that.

这简直让我难以置信。

And it just it blows my mind.

比特币市场仍有如此高的杠杆率，这让我无法理解。

It's incomprehensible to me that there's still so much leverage in the Bitcoin market.

我就是不明白。

I just don't understand.

如果你想用比特币作为点对点买卖的方式，尽管去做吧。

If you want to use Bitcoin as a peer to peer way to buy and sell things, by all means, go ahead.

如果你想投资比特币，我为你感到高兴。

If you want to invest in Bitcoin, I'm I'm happy for you.

如果你是那些相信比特币代表未来、美元将归零的人，想把所有闲钱都投入比特币，我能理解这种观点。

And if you're one of these people who believes that Bitcoin is the future and The US Dollar is going to zero and you want to put everything you have, every excess dollar into Bitcoin, I can understand that perspective.

但无论是加密货币、股票还是其他投资，通常借钱投资都不是好主意。

But it doesn't matter if it's cryptocurrency, stocks, whatever it is, usually investing with borrowed money is a bad idea.

因为即使你的长期预测100%正确，

Because even if you're right with your long term forecast, you can be a 100% right.

但短期判断失误，杠杆操作会让你血本无归。

But if you're wrong in the short term, it can wipe you out when you use leverage.

所以我认为应该完全避免这种操作。

And so I think it's just something that needs to be avoided altogether.

是啊。

Yeah.

我觉得有趣的是，当我关注比特币时，不仅观察加密货币市场本身，还会关注原名为微策略的公司股票代码MSTR，因为它就像是比特币行情的风向标，很多投资者都通过它参与其中。

I think the interesting part here when I think of Bitcoin, when I've been following Bitcoin, I look at the crypto markets themselves, but I also look at, strategy formerly known as micro strategy ticker MSTR because that's been sort of the focal point, the epicenter of Bitcoin's rise and how a lot of investors have participated in that.

Travis，你指出比特币经历了大幅下跌。

Travis, you point out that, Bitcoin's taken a big drop.

MicroStrategy股价跌幅更大，过去六个月下跌了55%。

MicroStrategy shares an even bigger drop down 55% over the past six months.

从很多方面来说，这就是John提到的比特币终极杠杆玩法。因为Michael Saylor的这种操作方式，终将成为金融工程学的一则经典MBA案例——既有趣又讽刺，对吧？

And in many ways, this is the ultimate leveraged play as John is talking about on Bitcoin because I'm telling you the way that, the way that Michael Saylor has set this up is gonna make a great MBA case study one of these days for financial engineering because it's it's funny and it's also ironic, right?

因为那些相信比特币前景的投资者，他们信奉去中心化金融的力量。

Because investors who believe in Bitcoin's promise, they believe in the power of decentralized finance.

所以，你知道，像资本结构这类传统商业指标的概念，可能并不是他们首要考虑的事情，但战略上已经以某种方式实施了这种金融工程策略

And so, you know, these ideas of things like capital structure, these traditional business metrics is it's, it's probably not the first thing that they're thinking about, but strategy has put this financial engineering play into place in a way that

简要解释一下他们在做什么？

explain briefly what they're doing?

因为他发明了这个叫做比特币收益的术语，有点疯狂。

Because they he invented this term called Bitcoin yield that is a little bit wild.

实际上，我花了好一会儿才搞明白他到底在说什么。

Actually, it took me a while to figure out what in the world he was talking about.

所以总体而言，如果你想购买MicroStrategy的普通股，它最终看起来和其他股票投资没什么两样。

So the general gist of it is, yeah, if you wanna buy common shares of micro strategy, it ends up looking like any other stock investment.

但优先于你的是债券持有人，他们借钱给MicroStrategy购买比特币，还有几类优先股股东，他们购买的股票享有更高的清算优先权。

But above you in priority are bondholders who have lent strategy money to buy Bitcoin as well as several classes of preferred shareholders who have bought shares that have a higher liquid liquidation preference.

除此之外，这些优先股还有权在你作为普通股股东获得一分钱之前，先收取承诺的高额股息收益。

In addition to having the rights to receive very high promised dividend yields before you as a common shareholder get penny 1.

只要比特币价格上涨，这个模式就运作良好，因为MicroStrategy通过发行债券和优先股筹集的资金都流入了比特币，其中很多比特币是以比现在更低的价格买入的。

And that works great as long as Bitcoin's going up because the proceeds that strategy got for selling those bonds for selling this preferred stock, they went into Bitcoin, a lot of those Bitcoin purchases at lower prices than what you see even today.

所以这套运作得很好。

And so that works well.

问题是，如果这场旋转木马突然停下，所有人都会开始困惑：我的钱从哪里来？

The problem is if the, if the merry-go-round stops and then suddenly everybody's trying to figure out, okay, where's the my money coming from?

这些债券的利息支付来自哪里？

Where are these interest payments on the bonds coming from?

优先股的股息支付又来自哪里？

Where are dividend payments from the preferred stocks coming from?

这笔钱并不一定存在。

That money is not necessarily there.

比特币本身并不产生收益。

Bitcoin doesn't generate income intrinsically.

是关键问题所在。

And so that's the big question.

你会看到那些债券价格下跌。

And you're seeing those bond prices fall.

你会看到那些优先股价格下跌。

You're seeing those preferred share prices fall.

所有这些投资者都排在普通股股东之前。

All of those investors ahead of what common stockholders would get.

这看起来像是一个转折点，特拉维斯，会是场有趣的博弈——华尔街做空微策略的玩家会赢，●●●还是做多的玩家能反杀他们？

It's it's just it it it looks like an inflection point, Travis, and it's just gonna be one of these interesting things where it's kinda like, are the are the Wall Street players betting against strategy gonna win, or are the players betting with strategy gonna offend them off?

是啊。

Yeah.

他们有几个

They've got a couple

过去对他们有效的手段。

of things that have worked for them in the past.

他们的净资产价值，按权益计算，实际上高于比特币的价值。

Their net asset value basically, as of the equity was higher than the value of the Bitcoin.

所以他们基本上利用这种套利发行更多股份，购买更多比特币，这样你每股持有的比特币就更多了。

So they basically use that arbitrage to issue more shares, buy more Bitcoin, then you hold more Bitcoin per share.

理论上讲得通，除非出现负值。

Makes sense in theory unless you go negative.

小心比特币从此持续下跌，特拉维斯。

Be careful that Bitcoin keeps falling from here, Travis.

是啊。

Yeah.

你快接近了。

You're getting close.

溢价可能会下降，比特币也可能会下跌。

That premium can drop and Bitcoin can drop.

所以这种策略伴随着多种风险。

So a lot of different risks with with strategy.

我们拭目以待比特币的走势。

We'll see what happens with Bitcoin.

稍后回来时，我们将探讨哪些高管应入选名人堂。

When we come back, we are gonna see which executives should be in the hall of fame.

您正在收听的是Motley Fool财经节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

欢迎回到Motley Fool财经节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.

在这个环节我们想做点有趣的事，我们将玩名人堂或耻辱堂的游戏。

We'd like to do something fun in this segment, and we're gonna play hall of fame or hall of shame.

今天我想做的是收集大家对几位CEO的看法，以及我们未来五年、十年甚至二十年将如何评价他们。

Here's what I wanna do today is get your thoughts on a number of different CEOs and how we're gonna look back on them five, ten, maybe even twenty years from now.

他们会像史蒂夫·乔布斯那样让我们满怀敬意地回顾，还是会像杰克·韦尔奇那样让我们回首时质疑他是否真的算得上伟大CEO？

Are they gonna be Steve Jobs where we look back with reverence, or is it gonna be Jack Welch where we look back and go, man, was he a great CEO or not?

新闻头条重要吗？

Are are headlines important?

运营表现是你们关注的重点吗？

Are operations the thing you look at?

说到底，如果我们筛选CEO，我们究竟在寻找哪些特质？

Basically, if we're looking for CEOs, what sort of qualities are we are we looking for?

我们将尝试对此进行一些前瞻性预测。

And we're we're gonna try to project this out a little ways.

丹，我想先听听你的看法。

Dan, I'm gonna start with you.

我想知道历史会如何评价萨姆·奥特曼——虽然还不是上市公司CEO，但他执掌着全球最具影响力的公司之一OpenAI，这家公司终将上市。

I wanna know how is history gonna look back on Sam Altman, not yet a public company CEO, but one of the biggest companies in the world, OpenAI, eventually will go public.

未来我们会如何评价他？

How are we gonna look back on him?

是啊。

Yeah.

萨姆·阿尔特曼是个引人入胜的研究对象，因为在某些方面，我觉得萨姆还没想清楚长大后要成为什么样的人。

Sam Sam Altman's a fascinating study here because I I in some some ways I feel like Sam hasn't yet decided what he wants to be when he grows up.

所以在他想明白之前，我不确定该如何评判他。

And so until he figures it out, I'm not sure how to judge him on it.

一方面，我认为他想成为那种推动人工智能发展的大格局人物——不是从金钱角度，而是致力于寻找AI的最佳应用来改善整个社会。

On one hand, I think that he wants to be this big picture guy who is leading artificial intelligence forward, not necessarily from a monetary standpoint, but just in terms of trying to make, to find the best uses of AI for improving society as a whole.

这确实是OpenAI最初以非营利形式成立时如此重要的核心理念。

Certainly that was the idea in being so important in the formation of open AI as its original nonprofit formulation.

然后

Then

时光流逝，突然间涉及数万亿美元的利益，这时Sam似乎开始尝到甜头，心想：也许我也该在其中拥有财务利益。

time goes by suddenly there's trillions of dollars at stake and that's where Sam seems to start getting a taste of, okay, maybe I need to have a financial stake in this as well.

而这就是让我不太确定Sam最终立场的地方——有时他似乎完全专注于AI带来的财务机遇，有时又似乎在削弱自己之前的一些立场，几乎像是再次以那种宏观理论视角来看待问题。

And that's kind of where I feel like I'm not quite sure how Sam has come down on it because sometimes, sometimes he seems like he's all about the financial opportunities involved with AI other times he seems to be undercutting some of the positions that he's taken before almost kind of again in the name of that like big picture theoretical look at it.

所以，我还没完全想好该如何评价萨姆，因为我觉得萨姆自己也没想清楚希望别人如何评价他。

So yeah, haven't quite decided how to judge Sam because I think Sam hasn't decided how he wants other people to judge him yet.

等他明确了自己的定位，我才能更准确地判断。

Once he does, I think I'll be in a better position to

现在要倾向于哪一边，我们是会以积极态度回顾他还是质疑他？

to weigh lean one way right now, are we gonna look back positively or question him?

名人堂还是耻辱堂。

Hall of fame, hall of shame.

目前，我倾向于正面评价他。

Right now, I'm gonna say that we're gonna look back on him positively.

当然，如果人工智能发展前景恶化，情况可能改变。

That could all change if the AI prospects go south for sure.

约翰，你怎么看？

John, what do you think?

我同意这个观点。

I agree with that.

我认为，我的笔记里正是这样记录的。

I think and I have it written down here exactly like that in my notes.

这取决于奥特曼自己决定想留下什么样的遗产。

It's up to Altman to decide what legacy he wants to leave.

他会被人们记住。

He will be remembered.

至于如何被记住，尚待定论。

The jury is out on how he will be remembered.

你看，奥特曼最有趣的地方在于，AI在他之前就已存在，但它确实需要一个面孔和一个推销员。

You look at what is so interesting about Altman is that AI's existed before him, but it really needed a face and it needed a salesman.

而他把这两件事都做得很好。

And he did both things very well.

你看看ChatGPT发布时，他突然就成了AI的代名词。

And you look at when chat GPT launched and he was the face of AI suddenly.

看看仅仅过去三年，世界发生了多大的变化。

Look at how much has changed in the world just in the last three years.

看看全球各地正在发生的实际投资、建设项目以及其他一切变化。

Look at how much real world investment, construction projects, everything else that is happening all around the world.

这确实源于ChatGPT的推出以及阿尔特曼的推广。

And that really comes from that Chad GPT moment and Altman selling it.

因此我认为人们对他存在一些疑虑，尤其是他将OpenAI从非营利组织转变为营利公司这件事。

And so I think there is some suspicion around him, particularly in regards to converting OpenAI from a nonprofit to a for profit company.

所以我认为他仍有可能被负面评价。

And so I think that there is still room that he could be remembered negatively.

但目前来看，我认为评价更倾向于正面。

But right now, I'd say it leans positive.

毫无疑问，回顾历史时，这将是位对世界产生重大影响的人物。

Definitely somebody who has a lot of is gonna have a lot of impact, on the world looking back.

好的，约翰。

Alright, John.

下一轮我要从你开始。

I'm gonna start with you the next one.

马克·扎克伯格，即便作为上市公司CEO，其职业生涯也经历了起起落落，但我们会如何评价他呢？

Mark Zuckerberg, gone through ups and downs throughout his career even as a public company, but how are we gonna look back on him?

背景是他在元宇宙、虚拟现实以及现在的人工智能等领域下了许多重注。

And the context here is he's made a lot of huge bets on things like the metaverse, virtual reality, now artificial intelligence.

我们回顾时会感叹：你知道吗？

Are we gonna look back and go, you know what?

这到底是位有远见的CEO，还是说，哇，他烧了太多钱？

This was a visionary CEO, or wow, he burned a lot of money?

我认为两者皆有可能。

I think it can be both.

听着。

Look.

扎克无疑将跻身名人堂。

Zac Zac is headed for the hall of fame for sure.

我也知道他现在是很多人调侃的对象。

And I know he's the the butt of a lot of jokes out there.

我并不是说他是个完美的CEO，但说真的，他塑造了社交媒体的今天，破解了数字广告的密码，做得如此出色，以至于他在其他许多未能像社交媒体那样取得回报的领域烧了不少钱。

And I'm not saying that he is a perfect CEO, but really, I mean, he made social media what it is, and he cracked the code with digital advertising and has done so so exceedingly well that he has burned money in a lot of other things that have not paid off as social media did.

但想想他在Instagram、WhatsApp和Facebook上的成就吧。

But just think about what he's been able to do with Instagram and WhatsApp and Facebook.

你能想象一个数字广告完全由谷歌垄断的世界吗？

Can you imagine a world where digital advertising was still a 100% Google?

我是说，他为那些在所有其他社交媒体平台上投放广告的人们创造了多少价值。

I mean, what he has delivered in value for for many people who do advertise on all of these other social media platforms.

说真的，我无法想象没有这一切的世界。

I mean, I can't imagine a world without that.

所以，没错，扎克注定要进入

So, yeah, Zuck is headed for the

名人堂。

hall of fame.

丹。

Dan.

这很有趣。

It's funny.

这很有趣，因为在体育界，你会看到那些冠军队伍遭遇所谓的‘二年级低谷’。

It's funny because, you know, in sports, you have these championship teams that go through sophomore slumps.

这有点像扎克伯格在元宇宙上的经历，大家都期待他能继一家彻底改变全球沟通方式的公司之后，再创辉煌。

And this is sort of what Zuck did with the metaverse where it's kinda like everybody's expecting him to come up with this follow-up to a company that revolutionized the way that the entire world communicates with each other.

你如何超越那样的成就呢？

And how are you going to top that?

答案是，要超越那样的成就确实困难。

And the answer is, you're to have trouble topping that.

但扎克伯格却能够以许多CEO难以企及的方式进行调整和适应。

And so, yeah, Zuckerberg though, been able to adjust and adapt in ways that a huge number of CEOs.

想象一下，扎克伯格从不缺乏自负，但他却有足够的谦逊，能够意识到自己在元宇宙上的巨额投入可能引发投资者和股东的反抗。

I mean, just imagine, you know, Zuckerberg has no shortage of ego, but he had enough humility to be able to recognize that he was facing a potential investor shareholder revolt with the amount of money that he was spending on the metaverse.

他最终选择了退让。

He backed off of that.

他更加顺应了技术和通信领域的主流趋势，找到了前进的道路，从而重获了这种信心。

He got more in line with kind of where the prevailing trends were moving in technology and communications and he figured out a way to move forward and that kind of restoration of confidence.

这很难。

That's hard.

对于一个在最初努力中已被证明如此正确的创始人来说，这比你想象的要困难得多。

It's harder than you would think, especially for a founder who has been proven so right in his initial effort.

而且是在如此年轻的年纪，

And at such a young age,

在这么年轻的年纪，他本可以轻易地说，看，我已经成功过一次，而且做得非常出色。

at such a young age, it would have been easy for the hit for him to say, look, I did it once and I did it great.

所以这次你们为何要质疑我？

So why are you doubting me this time?

然而他却成熟地退后一步，说道，你知道吗，我现在不需要证明自己。。

And yet he had the maturity to step back and say, you know what, I don't need to prove myself now.

也许我入场太早了。

Maybe I'm early to the game.

也许元宇宙的发展比我预期的要晚十年、十五年甚至二十年。

Maybe the metaverse takes ten fifteen twenty years longer than I expected for it to.

我有的是时间，因为我还年轻。

I've got the time because I'm young.

这种惊人的组合确实让我个人感到意外，因为我曾认为扎克伯格很可能会因为元宇宙的事情把公司搞垮。

It's an amazing combination that I personally surprised me when it happened because I thought there was a good chance that Zuckerberg was gonna run the company into the ground with the metaverse stuff.

他退得非常快，比我预期的快得多。

He backed off very quickly, much more quickly than I expected.

这值得称赞。

That's kudos in his favor.

另外我认为我们不该忘记的是他聘请了雪莉·桑德伯格。

The other thing I think we shouldn't forget is he hired Sheryl Sandberg.

她才是真正构建起那个利润中心的人，而他...我觉得他其实对广告业务从来就没那么感兴趣。

She is the one that really built that profit center, And he I don't think he was ever really all that interested in the ads business.

我想这一点现在在财报电话会议上已经有所体现了。

I think that's kinda coming out in the conference calls right now.

但你看像埃文·斯皮格尔这样创立Snap的人，他就没做那些事

But you look at somebody like Evan Spiegel who started Snap, he did not do those those things.

他没有放弃，你知道，那种聚光灯下的焦点，专注于广告

He did not give up, you know, kind of the spotlight, the limelight, focus on advertising.

所以正是这些小事体现了他那种能力，能够承认

So just those small that's his small ability to say, you know what?

我需要有人来接手这件非常重要但我不一定擅长的事

I need someone to take the reins on this thing that's very important that I'm not necessarily good at.

甚至收购Instagram时，能够承认

Even buying Instagram, having the ability to say, you know what?

Facebook无法摧毁Instagram

Facebook isn't gonna be able to destroy Instagram.

我们得直接收购他们

We we gotta just acquire them.

我完全同意你们的看法，他确实正朝着那个方向前进

I totally agree with you guys that he is he is headed for the haul.