Netflix完成惊人收购

Netflix正在收购华纳兄弟探索公司。

Netflix is buying Warner Brothers Discovery.

流媒体大战终于要结束了吗？

Are the streaming wars finally over?

《Motley Fool Money》节目现在开始。

Motley Fool Money starts now.

每个人都需要钱。

Everybody needs money.

这就是为什么它被叫做钱。

That's why they call it money.

这里是来自Fool全球总部的《Motley Fool Money》节目。

From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.

欢迎收听《Motley Fool Money》。

Welcome to Motley Fool Money.

我是特拉维斯·霍伊。

I'm Travis Hoye.

与我一同参与节目的还有卢·怀特曼和杰森·莫泽。

I'm joined by Lou Whiteman and Jason Moser.

伙计们，我们得从今天的新闻开始说起。

Guys, we gotta start with the news of the day.

那就是Netflix收购华纳兄弟探索公司，至少是华纳兄弟探索公司的一部分。

That is Netflix buying Warner Brothers Discovery or at least part of Warner Brothers Discovery.

他们将剥离WBD的全球网络业务，包括Discovery全球频道。

They're gonna be spinning off WBD's global networks global their Discovery Global.

这些是传统的电视台，比如CNN、TNT之类的。

That's the the old TV station, CNN, TNT, stuff like that.

但Netflix将总共支付827亿美元。

But Netflix is gonna pay $82,700,000,000 in total.

华纳兄弟探索公司的股东们，如果你是股东，你将获得每股23.25美元的现金和4.50美元的Netflix股票。

Warner Brothers Discovery shareholder, if you are a shareholder, you're gonna get $23.25 worth of cash, $4.50 in Netflix stock.

Netflix还将举债590亿美元来为这笔交易融资。

Netflix is also taking out $59,000,000,000 worth of debt to finance this deal.

有58亿美元的分手费。

There's a $5,800,000,000 breakup fee.

这里有很多事情在发生，Lou。

There's a lot going on here, Lou.

但你的第一反应是什么？

But what is your first reaction?

这则消息是在周五早些时候传出的，我认为坦白说这很令人意外，因为Netflix看起来并不像是领先的一方。

This news came out early on Friday, and I think it was frankly surprising because it wasn't Netflix that seemed like they were in the lead.

是派拉蒙、派拉蒙圣丹斯和Skydance。

It was Paramount, Paramount Sundance, and Skydance.

我总是念不对这些名字。

I can't get these names correct.

Skydance。

Skydance.

然后突然Netflix就成了赢家。

And and suddenly Netflix is the winner.

2013年，Netflix的联合CEO泰德·萨兰达曾说过，目标是要比HBO更快地成为HBO，而不是被HBO同化。

So in 2013, Netflix co CEO Ted Saranda said the goal is to become HBO faster than HBO can become us.

剧透警告还是什么情况？

Spoiler alert or what is this?

这是个意外结局还是类似的情节？

Is this a surprise ending or something like that?

他们将以一种奇怪的方式变成HBO。

They are going to become HBO in a weird way.

但是，我的第一反应确实是‘哇’。

But, yeah, I mean, I mean, the first reaction is wow.

我觉得这很合理。

I think it makes sense.

我不禁要开个愚蠢的玩笑，25年前有个定义市场的交易，目标公司名字里带华纳。

You know, I can't help but make the stupid joke about twenty five years ago, there was a, you know, market defining deal where the target was had Warner in the name and it marked the top.

不过我认为这次不同，因为AOL当时可能出于绝望。

I think this is different, though, because I do think that, you know, AOL might have been coming from a place of desperation.

Netflix在这里看到了机会。

Netflix sees an opportunity here.

我认为Netflix看到了一个绝佳机会，可以在一个因各家竞品涌现而授权内容日益困难的世界里，获取一个优质内容库。

Netflix sees, I think, an amazing opportunity to get a great content library in a world where it's getting harder for them to license because everybody has a competing product.

现在没人愿意再把内容给Netflix了。

Nobody wants to give Netflix their content anymore.

确实。

Yes.

债务负担很重。

It's a lot of debt.

没错。

Yes.

风险很大。

It's a lot of risk.

是的。

Yes.

我们看看监管机构会怎么说。

We'll see what regulators have to say.

但这确实有道理。

But this makes sense.

而且我认为，作为一个消费者，我可能也喜欢这个结果。

And I think, I I I think as a consumer, I probably like this outcome too.

所以这里有很多令人惊叹的地方，但也有很多值得喜欢的地方。

So there's there's a lot of wow here, but I think a lot a lot to like.

Jason，你看到这笔交易时有什么想法？

Jason, what were your thoughts when you saw this deal?

我想这让我觉得Netflix的年度涨价可能还会更进一步，因为他们现在确实占据了顶级流媒体地位——要知道，我已经有十多年没用有线电视了。

I guess it made me think these annual price increases for neck Netflix probably even gonna go a little bit further because they now really take that top position of, you know what, if you have streaming I I haven't had cable for, I think, over a decade now.

Netflix基本上成了没有有线电视订阅时的必备服务。

Netflix is kinda one of those you have to have if you don't have a cable subscription.

我同意。

I agree.

这几乎是每个家庭必备的基础流媒体订阅服务。

It's a bedrock streaming subscription for virtually every household.

而我...我认为这样的交易只会让这种情况更加明显。

And I I I think that only becomes more the case with a deal like this.

有趣的是你看到特德·萨兰多斯说：我知道你们中有些人对我们达成这笔交易感到惊讶，对吧？

It's funny you saw Ted Sarando saying, I know that some of you are surprised we made this deal, right?

我们...我们通常更喜欢自己打造内容而非购买，但他们认为这是个独特机会，就像卢刚才说的那样，能够获得一批极具价值的IP资源，对吧，那些他们知道用户喜欢的内容。

We we tend to like to build things rather than buy them, but they just view this as a unique opportunity, as as Lou went as Lou said there to to go ahead and get a a catalog of of just some very valuable IP, right, some very valuable content that they know customers like.

看看Netflix，大约有3亿订阅用户，而HBO Max所有这些加起来还不到它的一半。

You look at Netflix, around 300,000,000 subscribers there and and with HBO Max and all of this, that's a little bit less than half of that.

所以他们将会增加一些订阅用户。

So they're going to add some subscribers.

显然这里存在一些重叠用户，但他们也会带来一些新用户加入。

There's clearly some overlap there, but they're gonna bring some new subscribers into the mix there.

更重要的是，他们还将因此获得大量新增内容资源。

And and more so, they will have just a ton of additional content that comes with it.

我认为有一点，你知道，我对这笔交易并不那么兴奋。

I think the one thing, you know, I'm not as excited about the deal.

我理解他们为什么这么做，但这也让我对我们之前讨论的内容感到有点紧张，特拉维斯，就像迪士尼的角度那样。

I understand why they're doing it, but it also makes me a little nervous from what we were talking about earlier, Travis, like the Disney perspective.

我的意思是，你想想这个，对吧？

And and what I mean by that is you think about this, right?

迪士尼目前的市值约为1860亿美元。

Disney has a market capitalization today around $186,000,000,000.

那是9410亿美元的收入和123亿美元的净利润。

That's on 94 and a half billion dollars in revenue and $12,300,000,000 in net income.

嗯。

Mhmm.

另一方面，Netflix的市值约为4350亿美元，收入略高于430亿美元，净利润为105亿美元。

Netflix, on the other hand, has around 435,000,000,000 market cap on just over $43,000,000,000 in revenue and 10 and a half billion dollars in net income.

我认为过去几年真正拖累迪士尼的因素之一——其实是几个因素之一——就是他们在流媒体领域入场太晚。

And I think one of the things that's really held Disney back over the last several years, one of of I think a few, I think they relate to the streaming game better late than ever.

但是，对吧，那次收购福克斯的交易，我觉得让他们有点倒退，因为那是个非常庞大的承诺。

But, right, that Fox acquisition, I think kinda set them back a little bit because it was such a large commitment.

所以我从Netflix的角度担心这一点，因为它确实是个非常重大的承诺。

And so I just worry about this from from Netflix's perspective in that it is such a large commitment.

这可能需要一些时间才能真正体现在财务报表上并显得合理。

It could take some time to really flow through the financials and make as much sense.

不过总的来说，我理解这个举动。

But generally speaking, I do understand the move.

如果说有哪家公司能执行好这个计划，我认为是Netflix，所以我明白他们为什么这么做。

If there's a company that's gonna be able to execute this, I think it's Netflix, so I get why they're doing it.

确实如此。

Definitely true.

不过我想说，买什么很重要。

I I would say, though, it matters what you buy.

所以我确实认为沃纳...我在这里看到了更多逻辑。

And so I I do think that Werner that that I I see more logic here.

我是说，我告诉过迪士尼和福克斯，我明白他们的意图，但我确实认为目标很重要，而且目标更优质。

I mean, I told Disney, Fox, I see what they were doing, but I do think the target matters and the target's better.

特拉维斯，关于定价问题，作为一个消费者，我只想指出，如果你真的想要这些内容，我怀疑Netflix会把月费提高11美元。

Travis, on the pricing thing as a consumer, all I'd note is is that if you actually do want this content, I doubt Netflix raises their price by $11 per month.

而华纳兄弟流媒体用户的最低消费就是每月11美元。

And the minimum to be a Warner Brothers streaming customer was $11 per month.

所以我认为这说明了其中的选择性。

So I think I I think that speaks to the optionality here.

我觉得，你知道，制片厂的一些不满在于——电影还会在院线上映吗？

I think, you know, some of what the, the studios are upset about, you know, that will will movies go to the theaters anymore?

这类问题。

Kinda some of those questions.

我认为Netflix可以在这方面轻松让步，或许

I think Netflix can kind of give in on that pretty easily and maybe And

他们已经承诺过会继续推出院线电影。

they have made some promises that they're gonna keep keep having theatrical releases.

但同时也是泰德·萨兰多斯说过，他们基本上不关心影院。

But all also Ted Sarandos was the one who said that, you know, basically, we don't care about theaters.

所以这笔交易中确实存在一些天然的紧张关系。

So this is there is some natural tension in the deal.

很多时候这类交易的情况是，你做出承诺或保证，但五到十年后就逐渐淡忘，也没人真正

And a lot of times what happens with these kind of deals is you make a a promise or a commitment, and five or ten years from now, you kind of forget about that and no one's really

跟进落实。

following up.

不过让我们看看

But but let's look

这个

at the

另一方面。

other way.

或许我过于乐观了，但大型制片厂的加入，是否意味着将影院作为另一个收入来源在经济上更具合理性？

And and maybe I'm being too Pollyanna here, but does the bigger studio presence mean that it makes more economic sense to sort of lean into that as another into the theater as another source of revenue.

是的。

Yeah.

背负着590亿美元的债务，或许你们需要考虑这个问题。

And with $59,000,000,000 in debt, maybe you need to think about it.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

对。

Right.

嗯，不过就这样吧。

Well, but that's it.

我会提供新的解决途径。

I'd offer new ways to to tackle that.

我不知道。

I don't know.

我认为有很多种可能性可以展开。

I think there's a lot of ways to play out.

关键点在于，迪士尼这些年来既有优秀的管理层，也有不尽如人意的管理层。

The one thing and, you know, I mean, that that not I mean, Disney has had good management and less good management over the year.

我还想说，如果要押注骑师，我会押注Netflix的管理团队能解决当前的一些问题，理顺这些症结。

The one thing again I would say too is is that if you're gonna bet the jockey, I'm gonna bet on Netflix's management team to work to work through some of the wrinkles, iron out the wrinkles here.

我也不确定。

And I don't know.

我不想表现得过于乐观。

I I don't wanna be too positive.

就像我说的，我仍然怀疑它能否顺利通过，尤其是在全球范围内涉及反垄断的情况下。

Like I said, I still wonder if it gets through, especially globally, with antitrust.

但我确实认为，天啊，你们让一群极其聪明的人来掌管更多优质资产。

But I do think that, man, you're putting a really smart people in charge of even more great assets.

作为投资者，这家公司有很多值得看好的地方。

And as an investor, there's a lot to like about that company.

我也觉得这完全合理。

I I think that makes perfect sense too.

而且，考虑到他们引入的所有这些资产，事情可能有两种走向，但很可能会看到Netflix推出更多订阅层级。

And and, you know, the other thing to think about too is because of all of these assets they're bringing in, and then this could go one of two ways, but there's a distinct possibility we will see more levels for subscriptions coming from Netflix.

你觉得会有Netflix Plus吗？

You think there's gonna be a Netflix Plus?

Netflix Plus。

Netflix Plus.

也许吧。

Maybe.

让我们再发挥点创意。

Let's get a little bit more creative.

对吧？

Right?

不过你大概明白我的意思了。

But, I mean, you're kinda getting my you're catching my drift there.

对吧？

Right?

我是说，想想Netflix早期，其成功的关键之一就是简洁明了。

I mean, it could be I mean, think about Netflix in the day, it was it one of its keys to success was simplicity.

对吧？

Right?

它就是很简单。

It just was easy.

随着时间的推移，随着流媒体领域竞争加剧，他们不得不开始提供更多订阅层级，以吸引不同消费者，并逐步实施价格策略。

And as time grows, as the competitive jockeying heated up in the space, they had to kind of start offering some more levels of subscriptions to to be able to attract various consumers and exercise that pricing power sort of incrementally along the way.

所以，如果他们通过此次收购推出更多订阅层级，我一点都不会惊讶。这对消费者可能是好事，但也意味着选择最适合的层级会变得更复杂。

So I mean, it wouldn't shock me at all to see them offering some more levels of subscriptions with this acquisition, which could be good for consumers, but it also means it's going to be a little bit more convoluted or difficult to figure out exactly which level you really want.

但这或许能让他们更隐蔽地施展定价权，可以这么说。

But that might give them the opportunity to flex that pricing power a little bit more under the radar, so to speak.

我想谈谈其他竞争对手，因为我认为Netflix这笔交易至少带有一定防御性质才可能达成。

I want to get to some of the other competitors here because I think the other piece that we have to think about with Netflix is I don't think this deal gets done if it's not at least a little bit defensive.

意思是，Netflix现在可以主动出击了，你知道吗？

Meaning, Netflix can now play offense, say, you know what?

我们要成为最大的平台，买下这家大型工作室，不让它落入康卡斯特、孔雀平台和派拉蒙天舞的手中。

We're gonna be the biggest and we're gonna buy this huge studio, and we're gonna keep it away from Comcast and Peacock and Paramount Skydance.

杰森，当你看到这种情况时，这些公司现在该如何生存？

Jason, when you look at that, how do those companies survive now?

我...我是说，我认为这就是Netflix的...你确实拥有Netflix。

I I mean, I think that's where the you you do have Netflix.

他们目前是遥遥领先的最大平台。

They're by far the biggest.

迪士尼的流媒体业务现在已经盈利。

Disney is now profitable in their streaming business.

他们有着相当明确的战略。

They have a pretty clear strategy.

迪士尼+主打儿童内容这一块。

You have Disney plus with kind of the kids stuff.

Hulu则负责更多面向成人的综合娱乐内容。

You have more adult general entertainment is under Hulu.

ESPN，虽然我们没有他们具体的流媒体用户数据，但显然他们将会通过体育内容吸引各类观众。

ESPN, it I don't I don't know how we we don't have numbers behind how many streamers they have, but it seems clear that that's gonna be the they're gonna be pulling in all kinds of stuff with sports.

而其他这些公司规模太小，无法成为必选平台。

Then you have these other companies that are they're just not big enough to be the must have.

当你考虑要取消哪些流媒体订阅时，如果Netflix真能做到这一点，取消这些小众服务的概率似乎会更高。

And they and if you're looking at what you're gonna cancel on your streaming bill, it seems like the odds of canceling those even goes up after this if Netflix actually pulls this off.

嗯，我认为你说得对。

Well, I think you're right there.

所以回到卢的观点，你会怀疑这笔交易能否真的通过监管审查，因为这确实会让强者愈强。

And so to to Lou's point, you kinda wonder if this thing actually does make it past the regulatory side, because it is really a big deal where the strong only gets stronger.

目前这个领域的主要竞争者基本就是迪士尼和Netflix，其他都是陪跑。

I mean, we're looking at pretty much the incumbents in the space at this point are Disney and Netflix, and then there's everybody else.

而且这些流媒体资产非常分散碎片化。

And and it's very fragmented with all of those different streaming properties.

这让他们的运营变得极其困难。

It makes it very, very difficult for them to operate.

他们可以继续维持现状，但这并不意味着从投资角度看有吸引力，除非具备某种差异化优势，否则他们永远无法行使同等的定价权。

They can kinda keep on doing what they're doing, but that doesn't mean it's going to be attractive from an investing perspective, and they're not going to ever really be able to exercise the same level of pricing power unless they have some kind of differentiation.

要知道，早些时候我可能会说孔雀台的直播体育赛事或许是差异化优势，但我们已经看到了...

You know, a time ago, I would have said maybe that was live sports with Peacock, but we're already seeing.

对吧？

Right?

我是说，你有迪士尼。

I mean, you've got, you've got Disney.

现在又有Netflix真正试图进入直播体育领域。

You've got now Netflix really trying to enter that live sports space.

别忘了还有亚马逊及其流媒体业务。

I mean, let's not forget about Amazon and and and their streaming business as well.

所以我认为这个由迪士尼、亚马逊和Netflix组成的三巨头，与其他玩家形成了鲜明对比。

So I think you look at that trifecta with Disney, Amazon, and Netflix, and then there's everybody else.

我认为对其他人来说，竞争格局已经变得更加艰难了。

I think the competitive landscape has just gotten a lot more difficult for everyone else.

你知道吗？

You know?

也许是因为我过去的银行业背景，但我认为每个问题都能通过交易解决，伙计们。

And maybe it's maybe it's the banking in my past, but every problem gets solved by a deal, guys.

你懂的。

You know that.

每个问题都能通过交易解决。

Every problem is solved by a deal.

Peacock需要更多交易。

Peacock more deals.

顺便说一句，

By the way,

这笔交易可能一年半内都无法完成。

this deal isn't gonna close for a year and a half potentially.

对。

Right.

不。

No.

但我觉得，听着，现在有两类平台，而且我认为版税就是版税。

But I but but I think, look, there is two tiers, and, and I think, you know, the royalty is royalty.

其他平台必须联手合作。

The the rest have to team up.

孔雀和派拉蒙应该互相联系。

Peacock, Paramount call each other.

我认为这笔交易是合理的。

I think that deal makes sense.

我觉得至少能打造出一个更有竞争力的二级平台。

I I think it it would make at least a stronger second tier player.

真正的问题在于各方的自尊心。

Real question there is egos.

我不认为埃里森家族会愿意放弃控制权。

I don't see, the Ellisons wanting to give up control.

而且我认为康卡斯特很乐意参与这场竞争。

And I think Comcast likes having a horse in this race.

所以我不确定该如何构建这个结构才能让各方都满意。

So I don't I don't know how you structure that so that everybody is happy.

但假设Netflix被允许收购华纳兄弟探索公司，如果孔雀电视和派拉蒙合并，事情可能会变得更容易，因为那时你可以说，看——

But that assuming Netflix is allowed to buy Warner Brothers Discovery, and maybe it becomes easier if Peacock and Paramount are together because then you could say, look.

这是另一个你可以尝试向监管机构提出的论点。

This is another you could at try and make the argument to regulators.

但我确实认为，如此大规模的行业进一步整合是必然结果。

But I do think that further consolidation is the natural result of something this big.

这让人不禁怀疑，那些较小的竞争对手是否正在幕后悄悄联系亚马逊、迪士尼和Netflix，说：'嘿，伙计们'。

Makes you wonder if those little the smaller competitors aren't maybe, like, sort of, behind the scenes knocking on the doors of Amazon, Disney, and Netflix and saying, hey, guys.

你们也想收购我们吗？

You wanna buy us too?

那该多有意思啊？

How fun would that be?

另一个问题是，你们还有这个没怎么受到关注的拆分业务——有线电视网络。

Here's the other question is you also have this spin off that isn't getting much attention, the the cable networks.

我相信康卡斯特仍然计划做同样的事情。

I I believe Comcast is still planning to do the same thing.

卢，这是否可能是另一笔交易，

Is that another deal, Lou, that could potentially

同样的回答。

Same answer.

会发生吗？

Happen?

是的。

Yeah.

同样的回答。

Same answer.

康卡斯特的有线电视网络正试图通过扩大规模来维持运营，分摊销售团队的压力。

The the the the Comcast TV networks for the it's trying to tread water with a little more scale to spread out over the sales team.

是的。

Yeah.

我...我认为这类东西实在太多了。

I I I think there are too many of these things, period.

无论是作为消费者还是企业，整合/淘汰——我认为整合更有可能，因为它们确实都拥有某些价值。

As a consumer, as as a business, consolidation slash failure, I think consolidation is more likely because they all do have something of value.

我认为在这笔交易之前，世界本就朝着这个方向发展，但大交易往往会搅动局势并引发其他交易。

I think probably that's the way the world was going before this deal, but a big deal tends to shake things up and cause other deals.

确实如此。

So yeah.

谁是最大的赢家？

Who is the big winner here?

这将是我的最后一个问题。

This will be my final question.

卢，你先说。

Lou, you go first.

如果只能选一支股票，你会选哪支？

If you gotta pick one stock, which one is it?

老兄。

Man.

你知道的，我明白你想让我说迪士尼？

You know, I dig you want me to say Disney?

我可能会说迪士尼

I may say Disney as

迪士尼什么都不用做就已经是赢家了。

Just by not doing anything, Disney is the winner.

嗯，看涨的观点是，我们讨论过的。

Well well, the bull case is, you know, we talked about it.

迪士尼之前在他们的一些做法上确实存在问题。

Disney had some issues before with some of what they did.

至少，你也把最大竞争对手的戏剧性事件带进来了。

If nothing else, you're bringing your biggest competitor drama too.

对吧？

Right?

所以某种程度上，你是在把他们拉低到你的水平。

So so so you're kind of bringing them down to your level.

而且，是的，我确实认为迪士尼的那些问题，终有一天会变成先发优势。

And, also, yeah, I do think that Disney, maybe all of that issues will one day look like a first mover advantage.

对吧？

Right?

但我...我认为...我还是觉得Netflix才是这里的大赢家，因为——我再次强调这一点。

But I I think them I still think Netflix Netflix is a big winner here because, again, I go back to this.

也许我太乐观了，但你给房间里最聪明的人更多优质资产。

Maybe I'm too optimistic, but you give the smartest people in the room more good assets.

作为投资者，我愿意押注这个。

And as an investor, I I'll take my chances with that.

杰森？

Jason?

卢，你抢了我的答案。

Lou, you stole my answer.

房间里最聪明的人。

The smartest people in the room.

我正想说，我我我认为，如果有哪家公司能有效执行这类收购，那很可能就是Netflix。

I was gonna say, I I I think that, again, if there's any company that's going to be able to execute this this type of an acquisition, effectively, I think that Netflix is probably it.

他们显然拥有辉煌的成功记录，公司里有很多非常聪明的人。

They just clearly have a tremendous track record of success, some very smart people in the business.

而且我认为这个品牌如今已成为家庭娱乐领域的基石。

And, again, I think a brand that is just a bedrock of of the the home entertainment landscape today.

实在看不出这种优势会消失。

Just don't see that going away.

广告回来后，我们将讨论本周另一大新闻：Meta削减元宇宙开支。

When we come back, we are gonna get to the other big news of the week that is meta cutting spending on the metaverse.

您正在收听的是Motley Fool Money节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

嘿，各位傻瓜们。

Hey, fools.

我们将短暂休息一下，插播今天节目的赞助商信息。

We're gonna take a quick break for a word from our sponsor for today's episode.

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The flagship fund taps into some of real estate's most attractive qualities, long term appreciation potential, a hedge against inflation, and diversification beyond the stock market.

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Check, check, and check.

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欢迎回到Motley Full Money节目。

Welcome back to Motley Full Money.

Meta本周宣布将削减约30%的元宇宙投资。

Meta announced this week that it's cutting investment in the metaverse by about 30%.

我们目前还不清楚具体细节，比如元宇宙和人工智能各自占比多少，但这是马克·扎克伯格在VR和AR领域投入的巨大赌注。

Now we don't know, like, the exact details, what's the metaverse, what's AI, but this was a massive investment that Mark Zuckerberg made in trying to build out VR, AR.

他们甚至为此改了公司名。

They even changed their name.

那么卢，你觉得前Facebook公司搞元宇宙这件事是不是个错误？

So, Lou, is this whole metaverse thing been a mistake by the former Facebook?

顺便问句，我们还能把原名要回来吗？

By way, can we get that name back?

是啊。

Yeah.

或者干脆改名叫AI平台公司？

Or change it to, AI platforms?

我也不知道。

I don't know.

对。

Yeah.

听着，伙计们，我真不知道该作何感想。

Look, guys, I I don't know what to think.

我实在拿不准是该在这里称赞扎克还是要批评他。

I can't figure out if I am going to praise Zuck here or or bury him.

因为，你看，从某种角度来说，这是一支能赚大钱的成长股。

Because, look, in one sense, this is a growth stock that makes a lot of money.

你希望这些CEO能做出大胆的赌注。

You want these CEOs to be making big bets.

Meta的广告业务就像一台印钞机。

Meta has a money printing machine in its advertising business.

我并不想只是在那里支付股息。

I don't necessarily want to just pay a dividend there.

你希望这些现金能投资于企业，用于实现宏大的构想。

You want that cash to be invested in the business for big ideas.

但另一方面，你评判CEO的标准是看他如何明智地使用这笔资金。

On the other hand, you judge your CEO on making good choices with what to do with that money.

这不仅仅是把钱往墙上扔那么简单。

It just isn't a matter of throwing money at the wall.

而是要做出明智的投资。

It's let's make good investments.

事后诸葛亮容易，但有没有那么一刻我们中有人想说，嘿，扎克。

Easy for me to say in hindsight, but was there ever a moment where any of us wanted to say, hey, Zuck.

你为什么不烧掉770亿美元把我们全放进电子游戏里呢？

Why don't you burn $77,000,000,000 to put us all inside of a video game?

那倒是挺有意思的。

That would be cute.

对吧？

Right?

现在看看。

And now look.

是啊。

Yeah.

我认为，他们很大程度上是想投资人工智能。

A lot of this, I think, is they wanna invest in AI.

无论是好消息还是坏消息，AI会让那770亿美元看起来像零花钱。

Either good news, bad news, AI is gonna make that 77,000,000,000 look like pocket change.

所以，你看，我们又来了。

So, you know, there here we here we go again.

但是，扎克，我真的不知道该怎么想。

But, yeah, I don't I I don't know what to think here, Zach.

你知道吗？

You know?

是的。

Yes.

大胆尝试。

Take big swings.

但归根结底，人们会根据你投资的质量来评判你。

But at the end of the day, you will be judged on the quality of the investments you make.

我始终没真正理解他们为何押注Meta，对股东来说，这简直是解脱。

And I don't I don't ever really understand where they were going with Meta and probably for shareholders, good riddance.

是啊。

Yeah.

你知道，我...我觉得Lou说得对。

You know, I I I think Lou's right.

两方面因素都有一些。

There's a little bit of both.

对吧？

Right?

你既想称赞他，又忍不住想为这事责备他几句，因为这显然不是明智之举。

You wanna praise him and and maybe kind of chastise him a little bit for this because, I mean, it was clearly not the right move.

只要回顾过去两年，现实实验室部门就累计亏损近400亿美元。

I mean, you just look back over the last two years, that has chalked up close to $40,000,000,000 in operating losses in the reality lab segment.

但显然，AI才是未来的机遇所在。

But clearly, AI is the opportunity going forward.

所以很高兴看到扎克至少承认了这一点。

So it's good to see Zuck at least acknowledging that.

作为投资者，当事情进展不顺时，事实变了，观点自然也要跟着变。

I mean, as investors, right, when things aren't working out, you just sort of you change your mind when the facts change.

很明显，我已经关注这个领域好几年了。

And clearly here, I mean, I followed the space for several years.

虽然AR和VR有一些有趣的潜在应用，但这个元宇宙概念确实没有像他预期的那样发展起来。

While there are some interesting sort of implications of AR and VR, right, this metaverse sort of concept just hasn't really developed, I think, as he would have hoped.

这并不是说它未来不会成功。

Now it's not to say that it won't in the future.

也许会的。

Maybe it will.

也许要等到我们都不在了才会实现。

Maybe it'll be well after we're gone, guys.

谁知道呢。

I don't know.

但这让我从谷歌或Alphabet的其他赌注部门的角度进行了思考。

But, you know, I do this made me think about Google or Alphabet from the perspective of their other bets segment.

当你观察其他赌注时，是的，那个部门也亏损很多钱。

And when you look at other bets, yeah, other bets, that that segment loses a lot of money too.

但如果你只看过去两年，它的亏损大约是Reality Labs的四分之一，而且亏损也是多元化的。

But if you just look over the last two years, I mean, it's basically it it's it's losses are a quarter of what Reality Labs is It's diversified losses too.

这正是我接下来要说的重点。

And that was gonna be my next point exactly.

它包括Calico这样的生物技术企业，Gfiber等业务。

It includes businesses like Calico, which is biotechnology, Gfiber.

对吧？

Right?

还有健康科学领域的Verily。

You've got the what Verily in health sciences.

还有Waymo。

You got Waymo.

他们有Wing，做无人机配送的。

You got Wing, which is drone delivery.

他们还有X，别跟以前的Twitter搞混了。

They've got their x, which don't mistake that for the old Twitter.

X是Alphabet的登月工厂，也就是那个研发中心。

X is Alphabet's moonshot factory, which is that research and development facility.

所以说到你的观点，没错，那是个非常多元化的其他业务。

So to your point there, yeah, that's a very well diversified other bets business.

我认为市场一直对此给予了高度认可。

And I think the market has always given it a lot of credit for for that.

Facebook，Meta，不管他们决定怎么称呼自己。

Facebook, Meta, whatever they decide to call themselves.

是啊。

Yeah.

本质上还是广告业务。

It's still an advertising play.

这并不是件坏事。

That's not a bad thing.

他们在这方面做得非常好。

They do that very well.

但要找到下一个迭代版本、下一个范式，结果证明这比我们预想的要困难一些。

But trying to figure out that next iteration, that next sort of paradigm, turns out that's a little bit more difficult than perhaps we thought.

另一件与发布内容相悖的事情，或者说与元宇宙裁员信息相矛盾的是，他们聘请了来自苹果的艾伦·戴。

The other thing that kind of goes against what the release was about or the information that came out about these these cuts at the metaverse is they hired Alan Dye, who's coming from Apple.

他曾是苹果的设计高管之一。

He was one of their design executives.

他以参与Apple Watch和Vision Pro等项目而闻名。

He is known for things like the Apple Watch and the Vision Pro.

所以当你审视他们在增强现实领域的雄心时，他们有了能感知你手部动作的腕戴设备。

So when you look at something like their AR ambitions with the glasses, you have that wrist device that senses what you're doing with your hand.

还有显示技术。

You have displays.

所以这里有很多重叠之处。

So there's a lot of overlap there.

这看起来几乎像是他们要从元宇宙的概念转向全力投入他所描述的——他将负责运行配备人工智能的消费设备。

It almost seems like they're shifting from this metaverse idea to going all in on what he he it was described as he's gonna be running AI equipped consumer devices.

那么我们只是把元宇宙改名为AI宇宙吗，卢？

So are we just renaming the metaverse to AI verse, Lou?

改名，我不确定，因为我确实认为两者是有区别的。

Renaming, I don't know, because I do think there there is a difference.

你知道吗？

You know?

你必须通过眼镜等设备与现实世界保持连接。

You you have to stick in the real world with a lot of with the glasses and stuff.

你无法进入卡通世界。

You don't get to go into the cartoon.

不过，是的，我认为很明显——如果我们想给扎克一个更善意的解读，他确实预见到了未来我们将体验各种增强现实，就像现实+的场景。

But, yes, I think it's pretty clearly If if we wanna give Zuck a more charitable read, he did see that in the future, we are gonna be experienced augmented all sorts of just like reality plus scenarios.

或许他在虚拟游戏世界的判断有误，但在AI增强现实方面可能没错。

And maybe he was wrong on the video game world, but he may not be wrong on the AI assisted reality.

所以这更像是一次战略转型，而非简单的‘我们错了’。

And so it is more of a shift than it is just a we were wrong.

他们如何运用那笔巨额资金肯定会很有趣，毕竟AI研发确实耗资巨大。

Definitely gonna be interesting to see what they do with all that cash because AI is costing a lot of money.

他们虽缺乏明确战略，但显然正投入重金吸引人才来解决这个问题。

They don't have a clear strategy there, but they're obviously spending a lot of money to pull people in to try to figure this out.

看来扎克伯格的长期声誉将取决于未来五到十年的表现。

And so we it seems like Zuckerberg's, long term reputation is gonna be determined over this next five to ten years.

广告回来后，我们将进行‘无坚不摧vs岿然不动’的环节。

When we come back, we're gonna play unstoppable force versus immovable object.

您正在收听的是Motley Fool财经节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

欢迎回到Motley Fool财经节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.

今天我们要玩一个'势不可挡的力量vs无法移动的物体'的游戏，这股势不可挡的力量就是那些年复一年持续增长和复合发展的颠覆性公司。

Today, we're gonna play unstoppable force versus immovable object, and the unstoppable force is these disruptive companies that it seems like just keep growing and compounding year after year.

想想亚马逊或网飞这样的公司。

So think about Amazon or Netflix.

这些公司会在我们即将讨论的某些行业中长期获胜吗？还是那些看似原地不动的既得利益者——'无法移动的物体'会胜出？

Do those companies win long term in some of these industries we're gonna talk about, or is it the immovable objects, the incumbents that just kinda don't seem to go anywhere?

那我们开始吧。

So let's start.

杰森，从你开始。

Let me go with you, Jason.

电动汽车是汽车行业势不可挡的颠覆力量吗？

Is are electric vehicles an unstoppable force of disruption in the auto industry?

还是说我们已经过了那个阶段，'无法移动的物体'将会是底特律、大石油公司以及当前的政治环境？

Or have we gotten past that and the immovable object is going to be Detroit and big oil and sort of the current political environment?

我们是否正在取消一些针对电动汽车的激励政策，甚至可能回归到那些高油耗SUV的时代？

Are we taking away some of these incentives for electric vehicles and, you know, maybe going back to the big gas guzzling SUVs?