英伟达公布财报。华尔街说：“就这？”

来吧。

Come on.

你明明知道我们会聊英伟达的财报。

You knew we were gonna talk about NVIDIA earnings.

这里是《莫利全钱》。

This is Motley Full Money.

欢迎收听《莫利全钱》。

Welcome to Motley Full Money.

我是泰勒·克劳，今天我邀请了长期全职贡献者马特·弗兰克尔和乔恩·夸斯特。

I'm Tyler Crow, and today, I'm joined by longtime full contributors, Matt Frankel and Jon Quast.

财报仍然是本周的重点，一些投资者青睐的公司确实在发布业绩。

Earnings are still the topic of the week, and some investor favorites are certainly reporting.

我们会深入讨论The Trade Desk的财报，我还会追问乔恩和马特关于MercadoLibre最近一个季度的表现。

We're gonna get into the results of The Trade Desk, and I'm gonna pester Jon and Matt about MercadoLibre's most recent quarter.

但首先，如果作为一个投资播客却不从英伟达的财报开始讨论，那简直难以令人信服。

But first, it would be hard to be taken seriously as an investing podcast and not discuss in the NVIDIA's earnings right at the top.

所以我们马上进入正题。

So we're gonna get right into it here.

我们在录制今天节目时，英伟达的股价下跌了约4%，此前该公司公布了2025财年第四季度及全年业绩。

Shares are in NVIDIA are down about 4% as we taped today after the company reported fourth quarter and full year twenty twenty five results.

自从上次英伟达的财报没有让分析师和投资者大吃一惊，已经过去一段时间了。

It's been a minute since we've seen NVIDIA report earnings that didn't blow analysts and investors away.

从股市的反应来看，今天似乎正是如此。

And it looks like based on the stock market reaction, that was kind of the case today.

因为，显然，73%的年收入增长现在再也无法让人感到震撼了，约翰。

Because, apparently, 73% year over year growth for revenue doesn't wow anyone anymore, John.

但至少让我感到震撼。

Well, it wows this guy.

我的意思是，看看是什么让我感到震撼。

I mean, look, here's what wowed me.

不知怎的，英伟达的增长仍在加速。

Somehow, NVIDIA's growth is still accelerating.

你提到了它最近一个季度73%的收入增长。

You you pointed to the 73% revenue growth in its most recent quarter.

这本身就已经疯狂了。

That's insane as it is.

但下一个季度，它预计增长将达到约77%。

But next quarter, it expects around 77% growth.

我的意思是，让我们把这些数字放到更具体、更易理解的背景下来看。

I mean, let's just put these numbers into a little bit of more tangible contextualized perspective here.

NVIDIA今年的总收入达到了2160亿美元。

NVIDIA for the year, it just reported 216,000,000,000 in revenue.

相比前一年，它新增了850亿美元的收入。

It added 85,000,000,000 in revenue compared to the previous year.

有些公司经营了几十年，都从未达到过850亿美元的收入。

There are companies that have existed for decades and never reached 85,000,000,000 period.

而NVIDIA只是在一年内就新增了这么多收入。

And that's what NVIDIA just reported that it added to revenue in a single year.

这简直令人难以置信。

It it's absolutely mind blowing.

除此之外，它的净利润还达到了1200亿美元。

That comes with a 120,000,000,000 in net income on top of that.

我都不知道该怎么说出口。

I don't know how to even say that out loud.

这太不可思议了。

It's so incredible.

还有更让人震惊的事情。

And here's something that's even more wow.

如果还需要更多震撼的话，这些结果并没有包含来自中国任何的收入。

If we need some more wow here, these results don't include any revenue from China.

一旦这些问题得到解决，这部分收入可能会很快显现。

That could come online soon as that gets worked out.

此外，还有主权人工智能等其他驱动因素。

Then you have other drivers such as Sovereign AI.

这是一个长期潜在的收入驱动因素。

That's a potential revenue driver over the long term here.

主权人工智能的收入翻了三倍，达到300亿美元。

Sovereign AI revenue tripled to 30,000,000,000.

你知道，许多国家将此视为国家安全问题，因此我们可能会看到更多国家加大对英伟达产品的投资，以构建自己的基础设施。

You know, a lot of countries are seeing this as a national security issue, and so we could see more countries investing more money into NVIDIA's products to build their own infrastructure.

在我看来，这些结果简直太惊人了。

Very wow results as far as I'm concerned.

我要说，这并不是英伟达第一次超出盈利预期并给出强劲指引，却在第二天股价下跌。

I will say that this is not the first time that NVIDIA has beat earnings estimates and issued strong guidance, only to see its stock fall the next day.

我同意约翰的观点。

I agree with John.

这些数字强劲到让人觉得难以

The numbers look strong to the point where they're tough to

形容

put into

话。

words.

英伟达的股价约为盈利的46倍，销售额的24倍。

Nvidia trades for about 46X earnings, about 24X sales.

尽管收入同比增长了73%，达到约680亿美元，这显然不可能年复一年地持续下去，即使他们预计第一季度的增长会加速。

Although revenue grew by 73 year over year, not taking anything away, to about $68,000,000,000 that's clearly not sustainable year after year, even though they're expecting it to accelerate into the first quarter.

例如，我们听说Meta、亚马逊、谷歌等公司计划投入的数千亿美元资本支出中，很大一部分是专门用于数据中心芯片，特别是英伟达的芯片。

For example, a large part of the hundreds of billions of dollars that we've heard in CapEx planned by Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, etcetera, it's earmarked for data center chips, specifically NVIDIA chips.

数据中心芯片是英伟达如今业务的主体。

Data center chips are most of NVIDIA's business today.

仅这三家公司今年就合计投入约5000亿美元，主要用于建设其人工智能基础设施。

Those three companies alone are spending about $500,000,000,000 this year between them, primarily to build out their AI infrastructure.

所以，73%的增长率——让我彻底算一下——如果保持这个增速，到2030年将意味着4.5万亿美元的支出。

So a 73 growth rate, just to go full math guy on you right now, implies $4,500,000,000,000 in spending in the year 2030 if we keep that growth rate up.

显然，这种情况不太可能发生。

Clearly, that's not likely to happen.

所以，这么说是为了表明，除非英伟达公布超预期的业绩——我认为本季度的表现不错，但还不算超预期——否则股价因估值和可持续性担忧而小幅回调，并不令人意外。

So this is a long way to say that unless NVIDIA posts blowout numbers, which I'd call this quarter good, not a blowout, it's not too surprising to see the stock pull back a little bit just on valuation and sustainability concerns.

约翰，显然马特对73%的增长并不买账，而且他还没读过麦肯锡的报告，那份报告预测，从现在到2030年，这些公司将在这些领域总计投入约7万亿美元。

John, apparently, Matt is not impressed with 73% growth and hasn't read the McKinsey report that they do expect to be spending somewhere in, $7,000,000,000,000 between now and 2030 on all this stuff.

但我不扯远了。

But I digress.

我的意思是，这很容易变成金融版的《周六夜现场》经典小品，就像克里斯·法利那个节目一样，我们轮流夸英伟达有多牛。

I mean, this could easily become the, like, the finance version of that SNL skit from the Chris Farley show where we just kinda go around the room and say how great NVIDIA is.

不过，咱们还是来挑一挑英伟达的一些薄弱环节，看看这场对话会往哪儿走。

But let's kinda poke and prod some of the soft spots in NVIDIA, and and maybe we can see where this conversation goes.

因为，你看，我们当然可以说它有多好，但投资者想买这家公司，就得清楚它的优势和风险。

Because, look, we can say how great it is, but people wanna buy this company, and they should know upsides and downsides.

今天我读到一篇路透社关于今日财报的报道，它讨论了计算能力需求的一些变化，让我产生了一些想法，也在这里稍微梳理一下。

One Reuters report that I read about today's earnings and was and it's kinda discussing some of the shifting demand in Compute Power and made me think a little bit and kind of talking through this a little bit here.

随着更多人工智能公司从训练模型转向实际向客户部署模型，它们将需要更多来自CPU的通用计算能力，而不是像英伟达GPU那样擅长并行处理大量小任务——这些GPU在训练模型方面表现极为出色。

As more AI companies shift from training models to actually deploying models, to customers, they will need more of the generalized computing power from CPUs versus the lots of smaller tasks all running in parallel that are, you know, NVIDIA GPU processors we're known for and worked incredibly well for training models.

此外，一些大型超大规模云服务商已经开始开发自己的专有设备。

Also, some of the big hyperscalers are starting to develop their own pride proprietary equipment.

我们刚才还在谈论它们的大笔支出，但比如谷歌，就拥有其专用的张量处理单元，据称这些单元在将机器学习工作负载部署到实际应用中时，设计得更优。

You know, we we just talking about their big spending, but Alphabet, for example, has its application specific tensor processing units that it claims are better designed to accelerate machine learning workloads, you know, when deploying these things into the real world.

看吧，英伟达不仅仅是一家GPU公司。

Look, NVIDIA isn't just a GPU company.

它的产品线中还包括CPU，并且还有其他方式来从当前的这些趋势中获利。

It has CPUs as part of its product suite, and it has other ways to monetize a lot of what's going on here.

所以，我不是在说这家公司从现在开始就完蛋了。

So it's not like I'm saying the company is, you know, it's cooked from here.

但我确实好奇，随着竞争对手开始找到绕过支付英伟达产品巨额溢价的方法，英伟达的定价能力是否会受到一些冲击。

But I do wonder if NVIDIA's pricing power might start to take it on the chin slightly as competitors start to find ways around paying that massive premium for an NVIDIA product.

我的意思是，如果非要说有什么让我担忧的，那就是这一点了。

I mean, that, if anything, would be my concern from here going forward.

你们在评估英伟达时，有考虑过这一点吗？

Are either of you considering this when looking at NVIDIA?

或者我在这里忽略了你们发现的一个更大的挑战。

Or maybe I'm missing a bigger challenge here that you guys have identified.

我很高兴你提到这一点。

I love that you brought this up.

我以前说过，除非你试图说服自己不要投资，否则你就应该已经投资了。

I've said before that unless you've tried to talk yourself out of an investment, you should have made it.

你说得对。

You're absolutely right.

这正是我投资AMD而不是NVIDIA的主要原因之一，尽管我完全承认NVIDIA是一家卓越的公司。

It's one of the biggest reasons why I own AMD in my portfolio and not NVIDIA, although I completely acknowledge that NVIDIA is an amazing business.

显然，Alphabet和其他公司开发自己的处理器，这对刚才提到的两家公司都没有帮助。

Obviously, Alphabet and others develop their own processors, it doesn't help either of the companies I just mentioned.

但你说得对。

But you're right.

定价能力可能会受到压力，NVIDIA显卡的溢价特性在未来几年的需求可能会下降。

The pricing power could be under pressure, and the premium nature of NVIDIA's GPUs could certainly be less in demand in a couple of years.

AMD，简单说说我的投资吧，它的净利润率为12%，而英伟达则是53%。

AMD, just to kind of, you know, talk about my own investment, has a 12% net margin versus 53% for NVIDIA.

这源于其产品的高端定位所带来的高溢价，正如你提到的。

That's due to its markups because of the premium nature of its products, like you mentioned.

但对于AMD来说，我认为利润率压缩并不是大问题。

But for AMD, I see margin compression as being less of an issue.

一方面，数据中心GPU在其业务中的占比要小得多。

For one thing, data center GPUs are a much smaller percentage of its business.

第二，AMD的GPU并不像英伟达那样能享有定价溢价。

Second, AMG's GPU AMD's GPUs, they're they don't command the pricing premiums that NVIDIA does.

第三，AMD并不仅仅像你所说的那样只有CPU，它还有其他核心产品。

And third, AMD doesn't just have CPUs as you put it with with NVIDIA.

这些核心产品是公司业务的重要组成部分。

They're a core product for the business.

这是一个非常合理的担忧，也正是我选择其他方向的原因。

That's a very legitimate concern, it's why I went another direction.

我觉得马特和泰勒都说到点子上了。

I think both Matt and Tyler are hitting it on the head here.

你看看英伟达的利润率。

You look at NVIDIA's margin.

正如马特所指出的，过去五年里，它的利润率几乎翻了一番，现在已经超过50%。

It's essentially doubled over the past five years, over 50% now as Matt pointed out.

我认为指望利润率一直保持在这么高的水平直到永远是不现实的。

I think it's unreasonable to expect the margins to stay this high until kingdom come.

终有一天，我预计利润率会从目前这种超乎寻常的水平回落到未来只是非常优秀的水平，而这种利润率压缩可能会对这项投资产生影响。

At some point, I'd expect the margins to go back from otherworldly right now to just great in the future, and that margin compression could impact this as an investment.

这正是我个人不购买英伟达股票的原因之一，尽管我确实被它震撼了。

It's one of the reasons that I'm personally not buying NVIDIA even though I'm wowed.

正如我们所提到的，我确实被它震撼了。

I'm wowed as we pointed out.

但收入还能再增长多少呢？

But how much higher can the revenue go?

我无法给自己一个满意的答案。

I can't answer that to my own satisfaction.

这种利润率还要多久才会从超乎寻常的水平回落到仅仅是优秀的水平？

And how much longer before that margin goes back down to just a great margin and not a other worldly margin?

这个我也说不准。

I don't know that either.

这种情况持续的时间远比我原本认为的可能要长得多。

The situation has prevailed and lasted way longer than I ever originally thought possible.

所以我已经大错特错了，但我实在无法预测未来，因此我选择置身事外。

So I'm already way in the wrong here, but I can't really predict it into the future, and so that's why I'm on the sideline.

我也很喜欢你这样表述，而且在讨论这类问题时，一个重要的观点是：今天加仓或买入某只股票，与持有该股票是完全不同的。

I like the way you frame that too, and perhaps an important message as we as we discuss these sort of things was talking about adding to a position or buying something today is very different from owning the stock.

我确信那些已经持有这只股票的人，对目前的情况非常满意。

I'm sure that people who own the stock are pretty satisfied with what's going on here.

但在做出下一个资本配置决策时，基于估值和你对公司未来走向的判断，这可能会彻底改变你对这家公司的看法，无论是加仓还是继续持有。

But when trying to make that next capital allocation decision, you know, based on valuation, based on where you think the company is going to be going, it can drastically change the way you frame the thought on a company, whether it's adding to or, continuing to hold.

所以我认为，当我们在讨论这些问题时，英伟达的投资者需要考虑一些细微差别。

So I think something investors in NVIDIA will wanna consider when we talk about these things because it there is some nuance here.

现在广告结束后，我将扮演一下反方角色，为两位MercadoLibre投资者发声。

And now after the break, I'm gonna play a little devil's advocate here, for two MercadoLibre investors.

嘿，富达。

Hey, Fidelity.

使用富达应用投资需要多少费用？

What's it cost to invest with the Fidelity app?

只需1美元起投，且美国股票和ETF交易免账户管理费和交易佣金。

Start with as little as $1 with no account fees or trade commissions on US stocks and ETFs.

这听起来真让人舒心。

That's music to my ears.

我只能说话。

I can only talk.

投资有风险，包括可能损失本金。

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

零账户费用仅适用于零售经纪账户。

Zero account fees apply to retail brokerage accounts only.

不包含卖出订单评估费。

Sell order assessment fee not included.

有限数量的ETF收取每笔交易100美元的服务费。

Limited number of ETFs are subject to transaction based service fee of $100.

请参阅fidelity.com/commissions上的完整列表。

See full list at fidelity.com/commissions.

Fidelity经纪服务公司，NYSE SIPC会员。

Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, member NYSE SIPC.

如果你到现在还没看出来，我喜欢有点挑衅性，时不时扮演一下魔鬼的代言人，尤其是对马特和约翰，因为我们已经做这个很久了。

If you haven't figured it out by now, I do like to be a little antagonistic and kinda play the devil's advocate from time to time, especially with Matt and John because we've been doing this for a long time.

他们并不介意。

They don't mind it.

当我们做这些事情时，他们的血压不会飙升。

They don't their blood doesn't boil when we do these sort of things.

因此，基于这一点，我想谈谈MercadoLibre最近的财报。

So in that vein, I wanna talk about MercadoLibre in their most recent earnings report.

昨天公布财报后，股价下跌了约8%。

Shares dropped about 8% after announcing earnings yesterday.

在过去五个交易日里，截至我们录制此时，股价已下跌了约12.8%。

And over the past five trading days, she's shares are down, like, 12.8 as we, are recording this.

如果我没记错的话，John，你之前在我们另一个群聊里提到过，这次股价跌到了自大衰退以来的最低估值水平。

Now if I remember right, John, you said on one of our other, like, group chats kind of before we were, discussed this here that it is trading at its cheapest valuation since the great recession.

我理解得对吗？

Did I read that right?

是的。

Yeah.

在那个群聊里，我想说明一下，我引用的是所有估值指标中最不靠谱的一个，也就是市销率。

So in that group chat, I I wanna acknowledge I was referencing basically the dumbest of all valuation metrics, and that is the price to sales ratio.

我之所以会看市销率，是因为它虽然不是我估值体系的全部，但确实是其中的一部分。

Now the reason I I do look at the price to sales ratio, it's it's not my entire valuation process, but it's part of the picture.

我喜欢它能平滑利润中的一些不一致性。

I I like that it smooths out some inconsistencies potentially in the profits.

但目前它的股价仅为其销售额的三倍。

But right now, it trades at just three times its sales.

如果回溯到大衰退市场崩盘的最低点，它的股价曾是销售额的2.6倍。

If you go back to the absolute height of the great recession market crash, it traded at 2.6 times sales.

所以它的当前估值仅略高于我们投资生涯中最糟糕的市场崩盘时期。

So it's only trading for a hair above what it traded for during one of the worst market crashes of of our investing careers.

对吧？

Right?

但如果你看其他估值指标，目前它的股价约为自由现金流的16倍，考虑到它在基础设施上的大量投入——这自然抑制了自由现金流的生成——这个水平其实相当合理。

If you look though at other valuation metrics, right now it trades at about 16 times its free cash flow, which is actually quite reasonable when you consider how much it's investing into its infrastructure, which naturally suppresses its free cash flow generation.

你可以看看经营活动现金流。

You can look at cash from operations.

它的股价是经营活动现金流的八倍。

It trades at eight times its cash from operations.

对于一家刚刚实现连续第七年增长率超过30%的企业来说，这简直令人难以置信。

That is absolutely incredible for a business that just turned in its seventh consecutive year of greater than 30% growth.

听好了。

Look.

我们正在铺垫背景。

We're setting the table here.

从历史指标来看，它的股价似乎相当便宜。

We have an it's seemingly cheap stock based on historical metrics and things like that.

马特，给我们讲讲第四季度的数据，然后我会戴上魔鬼的面具，提几个问题。

Matt, run us through the fourth quarter numbers, and then I'm gonna, you know, as I put on my devil's costume, to ask a couple questions here.

是的。

Yeah.

表面上看，情况非常稳固。

On on the surface, things look really solid.

我并不是说股价下跌没有原因，我们稍后就会谈到。

I'm not saying the stock's down for no reason, as we're gonna get to in just a little while.

只需看看 headline 数据。

Just consider the headline numbers.

商品交易总额，即他们的电子商务平台，同比增长了37%。

Gross merchandise volume, this is their e commerce platform, was up 37 year over year.

平台上售出的商品数量增加了43%。

43% more items were sold on the platform.

MercadoPago 这家金融科技业务，我想可以称之为拉丁美洲的 Stripe，增长了53%。

The MercadoPago FinTech business, which I'd call like a Stripe, I guess, in in Latin America, was up 53%.

信贷组合，包括信用卡、企业贷款和其他形式的贷款，增长了90%，达到125亿美元。

The credit portfolio, which is credit cards, business loans, and and other kinds of lending, grew by 90% to $12,500,000,000.

所有这些共同实现了47%的年收入增长。

All of this produced a combined 47% revenue growth year over year.

很明显，这仍然是一个快速增长的业务。

It's clear this is still a rapidly growing business.

主要的担忧，我相信我们马上就会谈到，是盈利能力。

The big concern, which I'm sure we're about to get into, is profitability.

但净利润率从一年前的10%以上下降到了6.4%。

But the net margin fell to 6.4% from over 10% a year ago.

那么，你来说吧。

So now go for it.

是的。

Yeah.

听起来你已经看到前方路上的车灯了。

It sounds like you see the headlights coming down the road here.

所以，我来稍微提出一些相反的观点。

So here's kind of my antagonistic view on this a little bit.

但作为投资者，我确实相信这一点。

So, like, here's then but I do genuinely believe this as an investor.

并非所有的增长都同等重要。

Not all growth is created equal.

并非所有的增长都是有益的。

Not all growth is good.

我不总是认为，为了追求那几个百分点的额外增长而侵蚀利润率和回报率是值得的。

I don't always think that it's worth pursuing, like, those extra few percentage points of growth if it erodes things like margins and rates of return.

MercadoLibre的利润率和回报率在2023年达到峰值。

And margins and rates of return for MercadoLibre peaked in 2023.

我注意到的一件事是，坏账或可疑账户的计提——也就是他们因为不确定用户是否会还款而核销的款项——在上个季度已经相当于其毛利润的25%。

It's and one of the things I've really kind of picked up on is that charges for bad or questionable accounts, you know, things that they've written down because they aren't sure people are gonna pay them back, that's now equivalent to 25% of its gross profits this past quarter.

我不是MercadoLibre的空头股东。

Now I'm not a MercadoLibre short shareholder.

我知道你们两位都是。

I know both of you are.

许多人都从这只股票中获得了极其丰厚的回报，The Motley Fool的许多成员和分析师也是如此。

Many have done incredibly well with this stock as as have many other investors at The Motley Fool, both members and analysts.

但像这样的情况会让我犹豫。

But things like this would give me pause.

尤其是那些可疑账户的信贷拨备之类的问题。

It's the especially the questionable account credit provisions, things like that.

在我看来，这家公司的增长并不像财报上看起来那么扎实。

To me, it looks like the company's growth isn't as quality as it looks on paper.

所以我想请你们俩说服我，也说服这里的观众。

And so I want you guys to kind of convince me and the audience here.

我是不是在对空喊话？

It's like, am I just shouting at clouds here?

不是的。

No.

这是一个合理的担忧。

It's it's a valid concern.

在我刚才提到的近四个百分点的净利率压缩中，超过3%直接源于成本上升。

Of the nearly four percentage points of net margin compression that I mentioned a minute ago, more than 3% of that was directly due to rising costs.

这包括坏账准备。

That includes loss reserves.

还包括资本支出，其同比增幅达53%，快于收入增速。

It includes CapEx, which rose by 53% year over year faster than revenue.

但我在其他我关注的公司身上也看到过类似的情况，比如Klarna，它的美国银行业务年增长率超过100%。在金融领域，当人们向你借款并偿还时，某些形式的增长并不需要这么快。

But we've seen the similar story with other companies that I follow, like Klarna, for example, where its US banking services are growing over a 100% year over year, where some forms of growth, especially in the financial sector where people are borrowing money from you and then paying it back, it doesn't need to happen quite so fast.

这真的很难。

It's really hard.

评估1亿美元贷款的风险，比评估120亿美元贷款的风险要容易得多，而且当情况变糟时，处理起来也更容易。

It's it's easier to assess risk on, say, a $100,000,000 of loans than it is on $12,000,000,000 worth worth of loans, and it's easier to handle it when things go bad.

所以，我目前还不太担心。

So I'm I'm not too concerned yet.

这仍然是一个盈利的业务。

Like, this is still a profitable business.

它仍然表现良好。

It's still doing well.

正如约翰提到的，它已经连续七年实现了超过30%的增长。

Like, as John mentioned, it's grown over 30% for the seven consecutive years.

这其中包括新冠疫情期间。

That includes during the COVID years.

但这确实是一个需要密切关注的问题。

But it's it's something that needs to be monitored for sure.

所以我是股东。

So I'm I'm I'm a shareholder.

我是个满意的股东，但我正在密切留意这一点。

I'm a happy shareholder, but I'm watching this very closely.

我想补充一点，这是一个拉美业务。

One quick comment I would add to that is this is a Latin American business.

当我住在拉美时，我对借贷的利率感到震惊。

When I lived in Latin America, I was I was appalled at the interest rates when it comes to borrowing.

这一点在房贷上尤其明显，信用卡也是如此。

That's was particularly true of mortgages, but credit cards as well.

这些市场存在更高的信用风险。

There is higher credit risk in in these markets.

很多人没有信用记录，因此作为贷款方，评估风险确实非常困难。

A lot of people don't have a credit history, so that can be really hard to assess the the risk as the lender.

因此，准备金自然会更高，而那些未违约账户的收益潜力也更大，因为它们收取了更高的利率。

So reserves naturally are higher, but the income potential from the accounts not in default is higher because they're charging higher rates.

所以我们需要确保在评估其信贷组合时，使用的是拉丁美洲的模型，而不是美国的模型。

So it we need to make sure that we're running this through a Latin America grid and not a US grid when it comes to looking at its credit, portfolio.

我还要说另一点。

The other thing I'll say is this.

另一个导致MercadoLibre利润率下降的原因是，它最近降低了巴西的免运费门槛。

Oh, another reason that mar margins are down for MercadoLibre is because it recently lowered the threshold for free shipping in Brazil.

我们可以翻开历史书，看看在这种情况下可能发生什么。

We can open up our history books here and and see what can happen in a situation like this.

泰勒，我同意你的观点，并非所有的增长都是好的。

I agree with you, Tyler, that not all growth is good.

你确实需要考虑长期利润率。

You do need to think about long term margins.

但如果我们回溯到2005年的亚马逊，它当时开始为Prime会员提供免费的两日送达服务。

But if we look back at 2005 at Amazon, it started offering free two day shipping for its Prime members.

从2005年到2010年，亚马逊的运营利润率下降了约30%。

Now from 2005 through 2010, Amazon's operating margin dropped by about 30%.

这乍一看并不理想，但那段时间其收入却飙升了400%。

So that doesn't look good at first, but revenue soared 400% during that time.

最终，这种更大的规模变得至关重要，因为它能够以新的方式实现盈利。

And, eventually, that greater scale was important because it was able to monetize in new ways.

所以我想说的是，我认为MercadoLibre正在下一场长线棋，就像亚马逊二十年前那样。

So all I'm saying is I think that MercadoLibre is playing the long game here just as Amazon was playing the long game twenty years ago.

让我们这么说吧，因为我想保持一点对抗性。

Let's just put it this way because, again, I like to be antagonistic.

每次MercadoLibre发布季度财报时，我们都会跟进一下，看看事情是否正朝着正确的方向发展。

Whenever, MercadoLibre quarterly earnings report is, we'll do our our check-in and and see if if things are trending in the right direction.

广告插播后，我们来看看Trade Desk能否摆脱下滑趋势。

After the break, we'll go and see if Trade Desk can pull out of its nosedive.

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投资有风险，包括可能损失本金。

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

富达经纪服务公司。

Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC.

NYSE SIPC 成员。

Member, NYSE SIPC.

我会尽量避免在分析Trade Desk的财报时，变成那种像那些浮夸的电视广告里总问‘你有没有遇到过这种情况？’的播客主持人。

I'm gonna do my best to not be that the podcast host equivalent of, has this ever happened to you person on those, like, gimmicky as seen on TV commercials as we go through Trade Desk's earnings?

因为这家公司我平时不太关注，但我知道你们两位都关注。

Because I this is not a company I follow much, but I know both of you do.

所以我会依赖你们，让大家更深入了解The Trade Desk。

And so I'm gonna lean on you to make everyone smarter about The Trade Desk here.

我们录制时，The Trade Desk的股价下跌了约6%，过去一年则下跌了67%。

Shares of The Trade Desk are down about 6% as we tape and down 67% over the past year.

关于高管层的人员变动，市场上有很多讨论；对我而言，简单一看就能发现这家公司的估值发生了巨大变化。

Now there's been lots of chatter about turnover at the executive level, and a cursory glance for me, there's been a drastic change in valuation for this company.

那么，市场在这份最新财报中究竟在反应什么？

So what is the market reacting to here in this most recent earnings report?

对于你们来说，The Trade Desk最近的财报是否至少改变了一些我们之前看到的叙事？

And did The Trade Desk's most recent earnings for you at least change some of that narrative that we've seen?

市场反应的是The Trade Desk的增长正在放缓，就这么简单。

The market is reacting to the fact that growth is decelerating for The Trade Desk plain and simple.

它刚刚公布了14%的增长率，我认为这是作为上市公司以来最慢的增长，而其下一季度的指引暗示增长将只有10%。

It just reported 14% growth, which I believe is the slowest growth that's reported as a publicly traded company, and its guidance for the next quarter implies 10% growth.

因此，2026年增长率跌入个位数的可能性很大，市场正在对它成为一家低增长企业做出反应。

And so there's a real chance that it dips into the single digits in 2026, and the market is reacting to it being a low growth business now.

有趣的是，至少在叙事层面存在竞争，我们说的是亚马逊。

Now what's interesting is there's competition, at least competition in the narrative, and we're talking about Amazon.

最有趣的是，The Trade Desk 的管理层在电话会议中点名了亚马逊，说：嘿。

What's so interesting is that The Trade Desk's management called out Amazon by name in the call saying, hey.

我们的产品比亚马逊的好。

Our product is better than Amazon's.

所以这几乎像是主动引起了人们对房间里的大象的关注，并告诉投资者和投资界，那根本不是什么大象。

And so it's almost like it called attention to the elephant in the room and told investment and told investors that it wasn't an elephant.

关键是这样。

Here's the thing.

亚马逊的广告收入增长了22%，而且规模更大。

Amazon just turned in 22% advertising growth at a higher scale.

我知道这不能直接比较，但过去一年亚马逊的广告增长在加速，而 The Trade Desk 却在放缓。

And I know it's not apples to apples, but still, growth accelerated in advertising for Amazon in the past year, whereas it's decelerating for The Trade Desk.

我认为投资者对此非常清楚。

And and I think that that is something that investors are very cognizant of.

是的

Yeah.

正如约翰所说，目前由于几个原因，这是一项增长较慢的业务。

As as John said, for the time being, this is a slower growth business right now for a few reasons.

投资者希望在几个方面获得保障。

Investors want reassurance on a few things.

他们想知道为什么公司无法留住首席财务官超过几个月。

They wanna know why they couldn't keep a CFO more than a few months.

他们想知道，当亚马逊实现22%的广告增长时，公司何时能再次加速增长？

They wanna know when the company's growth might accelerate again to the you know, with Amazon putting 22% advertising growth, when can we expect that?

我们还想知道，像亚马逊这样的公司是否真正对业务构成颠覆性威胁。

And we wanna know whether companies like Amazon are truly a disruptive threat to the business or not.

到目前为止，我们尚未看到这种威胁达到投资者所期望的程度。

We haven't seen that yet, at least to the extent that investors would like.

话虽如此，这仍然是一个仍在增长的业务。

Having said that, this is a business that is still growing.

它仍然盈利。

It's still profitable.

目前，它的股价对应未来收益预测的市盈率为11.4倍。

Right now, it's trading for 11.4x forward earnings estimates.

我不认为人工智能或任何大型科技公司真正对交易台构成生存威胁。

I I don't think AI or any of the big tech companies are truly an existential threat to the to the trade desk.

此外，我认为此时它可能成为一个有吸引力的收购目标。

Plus, I think it might be appealing as a takeover target at this point.

它的价格比别人自己搭建这样的平台要便宜。

It's it's cheaper than it would cost someone to build this.

总之，我认为投资者如果今天买入这只股票，并不会做出错误的决定，但我确实预计这种过山车般的波动还会持续一段时间。

Bottom line is I don't think investors would making a bet would be making a bad move if they bought the stock today, but I'd certainly expect this roller coaster ride to continue for a little while.

提到收购目标总是一个有趣的话题，尤其是对于金融媒体中的评论员来说。

Any mention of, a takeover target makes for a a a fun topic, especially for, you know, talking heads in financial media.

所以这将是一个不错的收尾话题。

So it's gonna be a fun way to close out.

你知道吗，马特，如果这真的像你所暗示的那样是一个收购目标，那我们来玩个小游戏吧。

You know, Matt, if this really is a takeover target, as as you might be suggesting here, let's play a little game.

你们可以扮演一下分析师，或者像那些大型财经电视节目里的人，为你们的观点辩护。

You guys get to, you know, make your best case as, you know, analysts or somebody on one of the larger financial, like, TV shows or something like that.

你们希望谁来收购The Trade Desk？

Who would you like to see acquire The Trade Desk?

嗯，我不确定我是否真的那么在意。

Well, I'm not sure how much I would necessarily care.

但说到亚马逊，我知道沃尔玛一直想紧跟亚马逊的步伐。

But speaking of Amazon, I know that Walmart loves to stay step for step with Amazon.

所以我认为沃尔玛可能会成为收购The Trade Desk的有趣人选。

And so I think that Walmart might be an interesting acquirer here of The Trade Desk.

有意思。

Interesting.

重要的是，The Trade Desk目前已经为沃尔玛的零售媒体产品提供技术支持，两者之间已经存在一些合作关系。

Importantly, The Trade Desk already powers Walmart's retail media products, so there is some already some relationship there.

在我看来，一个更有吸引力的想法是Roku。

I think a more compelling idea in my view would be Roku.

那可能更像是一次合并，而不是收购。

That would probably more of be more of a merger than an acquisition.

Roku当然是一个连接电视平台。

So Roku, of course, the connected TV platform.

The Trade Desk在连接电视领域有很强的影响力。

The Trade Desk has a large presence in connected TV.

Roku在用户采用方面表现优异，但在变现方面却面临困难。

Roku is excelling with adoption but struggling with monetization.

也许拥有The Trade Desk能帮助它解决这个问题。

Maybe having The Trade Desk would help it.

亚马逊非常希望获得这家公司，但我认为会面临太多反垄断问题，监管上恐怕行不通。

Amazon would love to have this, but I think there would be too many antitrust concerns that it it wouldn't be regulatorily possible.

我认为微软会是收购它的绝佳选择。

I'm going to say Microsoft would be a great acquirer for it.

微软有一些广告业务，但远未达到亚马逊或Alphabet那样的规模，而这两家公司却在许多其他领域与它直接竞争。

Microsoft has some advertising business, but nowhere near on the level of an Amazon or Alphabet, the companies that it directly competes with in so many other ways.

我认为微软可以尝试收购它。

I think Microsoft can make a play for this.

收购The Trade Desk对它的资产负债表来说只是九牛一毛，而且能极大地提升其广告业务水平。

It would be I mean, acquiring The Trade Desk would be a rounding error on its balance sheet, and it could seriously take its advertising business to the next level.

虽然这不太可能发生，但仅仅作为一点有趣的推测，我认为微软会是一个可能的收购方。

So not that it's gonna happen, but just for a a fun little speculation, I think Microsoft would be a a likely acquirer.

这一切都只是毫无根据的猜测，我认为我们当中没有人掌握任何内部信息，来判断The Trade Desk是否真的是一个收购目标。

This is all just rampant speculation here, so I don't think any of us have any inside, information on whether Trade Desk really is a takeover target.

这只是为周四的对话提供一个轻松的结尾。

Just a a fun way to end a Thursday conversation here.

很遗憾，今天我们的时间就到这里了。

And, unfortunately, that is all the time we have for today.

Matt，John，感谢你们分享你们的观点。

Matt, John, thanks for sharing your thoughts.

正如往常一样，节目中的人员可能对其讨论的股票有利益关联，而The Motley Fool也可能对这些股票有正式的买入或卖出建议。

As always, people in the program may have interests in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

请不要仅凭你听到的内容来买卖股票。

Just don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容均遵循The Motley Fool的编辑标准，且未经过广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows Motley Fool editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

广告内容仅为提供信息之用。

Advertisements are content and provided for informational purposes only.

如需查看我们的完整广告披露，请参阅节目说明。

To see our full advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢制作人丹·博伊德以及The Motley Fool团队的其他成员。

Thanks for producer Dan Boyd and the rest of the Motley Fool team.

代表Matt、John和我自己，感谢您的收听，我们很快再聊。

For Matt, John, myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.