油价飙升，股市下跌——接下来会怎样？

周二股市下跌。

The stock market is down on Tuesday.

这是过度反应，还是我们昨天就应该有的反应？

Is this an overreaction or the reaction we should've had yesterday?

莫莉的愚人金钱与隐藏宝石团队节目现在开始。

Molly Fool Money with the hidden gems team starts now.

欢迎收看本节目。

Welcome to the show.

我是特拉维斯·霍伊。

I am Travis Hoy.

今天我与路·怀特曼和马特·弗兰克尔一起主持。

I'm joined today by Lou Whiteman and Matt Frankel.

各位，我们必须从今天的新闻开始。

And, guys, we have to start with the news of the day.

就这样。

That's it.

市场大幅下跌。

The markets are down pretty big.

标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均下跌超过1.5个百分点。

Both the S and P five hundred and the Nasdaq Composite down over one and a half percentage points.

我们在录制时，原油价格上涨了8%。

Crude oil is up 8% as we're recording.

Lew，这一切都是对中东当前局势的反应。

Lew, this is all in reaction to what's going on in The Middle East right now.

但有趣的是，这种情况并没有发生在昨天。

But what's interesting about this is this didn't happen yesterday.

这些袭击和造成的破坏是从周末开始的。

These attacks, all the destructions going on started over the weekend.

理论上，你可能会以为昨天市场就会有大幅反应。

You would have thought, theoretically, that yesterday we would have had a big reaction from the market.

他们推迟了一天。

They waited a day.

那么这里到底发生了什么？

So what's going on here?

这是个很好的问题。

It's a great question.

我的意思是，昨天开始出现这种情况，但随后突然逆转了，事情并没有继续发生。

I mean, it started to happen yesterday, and then it suddenly turned around and didn't happen.

我认为这其中一部分原因，当然，我们不是政治节目，但有一种被称为‘塔可交易’的现象。

I think part of this, and, you know, it's not, we're not a political show or anything, but there is what they call the taco trade.

我认为市场中一直存在一种假设，即任何新发生的事情都会在失控前被扭转回来。

I think there is the assumption always out there in the markets that whatever new thing has happened will get turned around before it spirals out of control.

也许今天早上出现了 overnight 的评论，表示我们会坚持到底。

Maybe today is comments overnight saying we can go as long as it takes.

我们不会退缩。

We're not gonna back down.

这种情绪正在慢慢从市场中消退。

Just kind of that energy seeping out of the market.

但也许只是，哇。

But, also, it could just be, wow.

你知道，不管是不是塔可交易，这都是大事，可能会迅速变得复杂。

You know, taco trade or not, this is serious stuff, and it could get complicated quite quickly.

这是风险规避，因为风险太多了。

It's risk off because there's a lot of risk.

马特，当你看到市场这样下跌时，你在想什么？

Matt, what are you thinking when you look at the market being down like this?

这值得我们担心吗？

Is this something that we should be worried about?

这是个买入机会吗？

Is it a buying opportunity?

你心里是怎么想的？

Where's your head at?

嗯，自昨天以来出现了一些发展，我认为这些正在促成当前的局面。

Well, there there were a couple of developments since yesterday that I think are contributing to this.

举个最大的例子，昨晚美国大使馆刚遭到袭击。

For I mean, just to name the big one, you know, a US embassy was just attacked, since last night.

所以我认为这进一步加剧了这里的不确定性。

So I think that's kinda adding to the uncertainty here.

而不确定性正是你在这里看到的关键词。

And uncertainty is really the word you're seeing here.

当我看到这种广泛性的抛售，几乎每个板块都在下跌，连国防股也受到冲击时，我就明白这一点。

That's when I see a broad based sell off like this, where pretty much every sector is getting hit, defense stocks are getting hit.

我的意思是，这个板块本应该是上涨的。

I mean, that's the one sector you think would be up.

像房地产投资信托基金这类保守型投资也在下跌。

Conservative plays like real estate investment trusts are getting hit.

这些通常被视为避险资产。

Those are normally considered safety stocks.

所以当你看到这种大规模的普遍下跌时，它其实只是告诉我，现在完全是不确定性在主导。

So when you see, like, a big broad based kind of downturn, it really just tells me it's it's uncertainty.

市场不知道该如何解读。

The market doesn't know what to make.

他们不知道这场冲突会持续一周、六个月，还是其他时间。

They they don't know if this conflict's gonna go on for a week, for six months, or whatever.

这确实是推动今天市场走势的主要因素。

And that's really what seems to be driving today's action.

我想听听你的看法，关于这件事如何波及到普通经济。

One of the things I wanted to get your thoughts on is how this spills over into the regular economy.

因为油价上涨确实值得注意，因为美国人真的会感受到这一点。

Because the rise in oil prices, I think, is really notable because that's something that people are actually gonna feel in The US.

即使你不会直接感受到中东地区发生的所有袭击，你也会感受到今天早上我加油时的价格。

Even if you're not gonna feel, you know, all all of the the the attacks that are going on in The Middle East, you are gonna feel that I filled my gas tank this morning.

今天加油的价格比昨天贵了不少。

It was significantly more expensive than it was yesterday.

至少在过去二十年里，历史上的类似情况是，当油价和汽油价格飙升时，往往成为金融危机的转折点之一。

So the the historical parallel, at least in the last twenty years, is that if you'll go back to the financial crisis, one of the kinda tipping points there was oil and gasoline got really expensive.

突然间，这暴露了消费者群体的诸多脆弱性。

Suddenly, that exposed a whole bunch of weakness in consumers.

我们稍后会谈谈塔吉特公司。

We'll talk about Target in a little bit.

但是，卢，你是否担心这些行为看似与经济脱节，但实际上却会直接影响人们的钱包？

But, Lou, is that a concern that these kind of actions sort of seem isolated from the economy, but the ways that they spill over actually do impact people's pocketbooks.

比如汽油，如果原油价格涨到每桶100美元，消费者的压力就会进一步加大。

And if something like gasoline you know, if if the the barrel of oil goes to a $100, suddenly that starts stretching consumers a little bit more.

我们已经看到餐饮股表现疲软。

We've already seen weakness with restaurant stocks.

零售业的某些细分领域也出现了疲软。

We've seen weakness in certain segments of the retail sector.

这些情况在2026年至少应该引起我们的关注吗？

Is that something that we should at least have on our radar in 2026?

当然。

Absolutely.

而且你看。

And look.

现在有各种理由让人感到担忧。

There is all sorts of reasons to be concerned right now.

但作为投资者，我认为你抓住了最核心的担忧。

But as an investor, I think you hit you you nailed the biggest concern.

特拉维斯，我们已经多次谈到，消费者并不是一个人。

We've talked a lot, Travis, about the consumer isn't one person.

而是一群能够勉强维持、继续日常生活的普通人。

It's just a critical mass of people who are able to get by, keep going with their routine.

只要他们还能继续，经济就能维持运转。

That's enough to keep the economy going.

我认为，中东发生的事情本身，并不会让一个良好的经济变得糟糕。

I don't think what's happening in The Middle East in and of itself can call like, can make a good economy a bad economy.

但如果它成了压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草，导致越来越少的人能继续消费——比如外出就餐，那这种情况是完全可能的，而这可能正是对本已处于高位的市场施加的最后一击。

But if it is that proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back that just fewer and fewer people can continue on with whatever they're spending, they're they're eating out, I think that's very possible, and that could be just that final push in what has already been sort of an elevated market.

我认为作为投资者，这正是当前最值得关注的问题。

I think that as an investor, that is the exact concern right now.

你提到原油今天上涨了约8%。

You said that that crude was up by about 8% today.

我认为单凭这一点本身并不会对消费者行为产生重大影响。

I don't think that in and of itself is going be a big driver of consumer behavior by itself.

但如果油价像你刚才提到的那样飙升至每桶100美元，情况可能会大不相同。

Now, if oil spikes to $100 a barrel, like you just referenced, it could be a lot different.

这可能也是当前拖累市场的一个重要因素。

That could be also a lot of what's weighing on the market right now.

消费者确实感到压力重重。

Consumers feel squeezed, they just do.

这就是为什么沃尔玛表现如此出色的原因。

That's why Walmart's doing so well, for example.

当能源价格上涨时，消费者会感到更加捉襟见肘。

When energy goes up, consumers feel even more squeezed.

在这一轮通胀期间，我们看到能源价格波动剧烈。

We've seen energy prices during this inflationary period just go all over the place.

这就是为什么能源价格被排除在核心数据之外，因为它们通常波动很大。

That's why they're excluded from the core numbers because they tend to be really volatile normally.

通常，冬季过后是原油价格趋于稳定的时期，但你现在看到的却是这种变化。

Normally, when we're coming out of winter is the time when crude prices are are are stable ist, and you're seeing that kind of change now.

正如我所说，目前最关键的是不确定性。

And like I said, it's really the uncertainty at this point.

我认为今天的走势不会对消费者支出产生重大影响。

I don't think today's move is gonna have a big effect on consumer spending.

但如果价格继续大幅上涨，那就可能产生影响。

But if it goes much further than that, it could.

霍尔木兹海峡已经关闭了。

I mean, the Strait Of Hormuz is closed.

如果这种情况持续下去，油价达到每桶100美元也不是不可能。

And and and if that lasts, then a $100 oil is not out of the question.

好的。

Alright.

我想 specifically听听你对当前市场上是否存在机会的看法。

I wanna get your thoughts specifically about whether you're seeing opportunities out there today.

显然，市场中有不同的板块，不同地方可能会有不同的机会。

Obviously, there's different pockets of the market, there's maybe gonna be different opportunities, in different places.

但当你查看你的观察清单时，像今天这样的日子，你会不会觉得：哇。

But when you look at your watch list, is a day like today a day you're going, wow.

我真的想在这里买入，还是你会说：嘿。

I really wanna be a buyer here, or are you saying, hey.

我手头持有的现金，既然它就在那里，我就让它静观其变。

The cash that I do it, maybe I have sitting on the sideline, I'm happy it's there, and I'm gonna just kinda let this play out.

卢克，你现在心里是怎么想的？

Where's where's your head at, Luke?

首先，我认为最重要的是那些你没有采取的行动。

So first off, I think it's important to say that the most important thing to me is the moves you don't make.

最重要的是不要恐慌性抛售。

The biggest thing to do is not panic sell.

遇到这种情况时，你最终往往会底部卖出，然后又在之后买回。

Say something like this, because inevitably, you sell at the bottom and buy back after.

所以，我真心认为按兵不动也是一个可以接受的策略。

So I honestly think that sitting on your hands is an okay solution.

尽管在鸡尾酒派对上吹嘘自己在低点买入很有趣。

As much fun as it is to brag about buying at the lows if you had your cocktail parties.

你知道的。

You know?

如果你看到了机会，当然可以去行动。

And it's great if you see opportunities, go ahead and do that.

但对于长期财富创造来说，最重要的是避免恐慌性抛售。

But the biggest, most important thing for long term wealth creation is to avoid panic selling.

至于买入，我认为当时的估值已经高得离谱了。

As of buying, I don't valuations were sky high coming in.

我真的没看到有什么东西是你三个月前买不到的，或者它们不像一些SaaS公司那样带着新的包袱。

I don't really any see anything that, you know, you couldn't have bought three months ago almost, or they don't have new baggage attached to them like some of these SaaS plays.

我挺满足于只是保持关注，而不真正投入。

I am pretty content to just keep an eye out and not really commit.

我之前考虑过几件事，纯粹是基于估值，但我认为在这里什么都不做是可以的。

I've fought a couple of things just kind of, just on valuation, but I think doing nothing is okay here.

是的。

Yeah.

我同意Lou的看法。

I'm with Lou.

对。

Yes.

我看到了市场中的机会，来回答你的问题。

I see opportunities in the market, to answer your question.

这些机会和昨天在我观察清单上的是一样的。

They're the same opportunities that were on my watch list yesterday.

这是一场广泛的抛售。

It's a broad sell off.

我关注的大多数股票今天都下跌了约3%到5%。

Most of the things on my watch list are down in the 3% to 5% ballpark today.

我认为投资者最重要的一项技能是能够坦然接受什么都不做。

And one of the most important skills I like to emphasize for investors to have is to be okay with doing nothing.

每当这种状况发生时，我之前说过，我会起床查看我的经纪账户，然后关掉它，并告诉自己：今天是什么都不做的绝佳日子。

When this kind of stuff happens I've said before, I wake up and I look at my brokerage account and I turn it off, and I say, today's a great day to do nothing.

这是一种更难掌握的技能，因为人们总想在价格进一步下跌前冲进去，或在情况变得更糟前抛售。

It's a tougher skill to acquire because people wanna rush in before things go go cheaper or sell before things get any worse.

能够坦然接受什么都不做，可以防止你做出冲动的决策。

And being okay with doing nothing prevents you from making knee jerk decisions.

如果五天前某物还是一个机会，那么当它反弹回来时，它依然会是一个机会。

And if something was an opportunity 5% ago, it's still gonna be on a an opportunity when it comes back.

是的。

Yeah.

作为投资者，退一步思考可能是最难做到的事情之一，因为确实如此。

Taking that step back can be one of the hardest things to do as an investor because yeah.

你说得对。

Some you're right.

这是一次广泛的抛售。

This is a broad sell off.

今天早上我最先看的就是这个。

That was one of the first things I looked at this morning.

有没有哪些个股跌幅特别大，还是说我的观察列表和投资组合里的所有股票都差不多跌了3%到5%这个范围？

Are there specific names that are down a whole bunch or is it just is it everything and everything that I have in my watch list and in my portfolio is down kind of that same range, three to 5% max.

我们的投资组合里可能有相同的股票。

We maybe we have the same same stocks in our portfolio.

回来之后，我们会聊聊零售商，特别是塔吉特公司对2026年的预期。

When we come back, we are gonna get to what retailers, specifically Target, are expecting in 2026.

你正在收听《富足金钱》。

You're listening to Motley Full Money.

1915年1月，欧内斯特·沙克尔顿的船‘坚忍号’在威德尔海被冰层困住。

In January 1915, Ernest Shackleton's ship, Endurance, became encased in the ice in the Weddell Sea.

凭借决心、毅力和智慧，沙克尔顿带领他的船员度过了严酷的冬季，随后穿越了数百英里的南极冰原，接着航行了800英里，横渡了世界上一些最凶险的海域。

Through determination, grit, and savvy, Shackleton would lead his men through a brutal winter, then over hundreds of miles of Antarctic ice, followed by 800 miles across some of the roughest waters in the world.

这是探索史上最为非凡和鼓舞人心的旅程之一。

It is one of the most extraordinary and inspirational journeys in the history of exploration.

想了解这个故事以及其他更多内容，请收听《探险家播客》，该节目可在您常用的播客平台或访问 explorerspodcast.com 获取。

Find this story and many others at the Explorers Podcast available wherever you get your podcasts or at explorerspodcast.com.

欢迎回到《富足金钱》节目，由隐藏宝藏团队为您带来。

Welcome back to Motley Full Money with the Hidden Gems team.

马特，我们收到了塔吉特的最新消息。

Matt, we got news from Target.

塔吉特是今天值得关注的奇特零售商之一，因为它并不是像沃尔玛那样的超低价折扣零售商。

This is one of the strange retailers to watch today because it's not the super discount retailer like you have from Walmart.

但它们的表现似乎非常好。

They seem to be doing really well.

他们不是高端零售商。

They're not the high end retailer.

他们处于中间位置。

They're sort of stuck in the middle.

所以卢已经谈论这种K型经济差不多一年了。

So Lou's been talking about this k shaped economy for, gosh, must be almost a year now.

我们在Target身上正看到这种现象。

And we're kinda seeing this with Target.

他们的业绩从过往来看并不特别出色，但他们预计2026年会有一些增长。

Their results, not all that impressive on a trailing basis, but they are expecting a little bit of growth in 2026.

你对Target本季度的表现有什么看法？

What did you take from the quarter for Target?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，他们的全年指引令人印象深刻。

I mean, their full year guidance is impressive.

这表明我们可能正在迎来转机。

It suggests that we might be, you know, turning a corner here.

我很喜欢这次的领导层变动。

I love the leadership change.

如果我没记错的话，特拉维斯，你住得离塔吉特总部那么近，从窗户都能看到。

And if I remember correctly, you know, Travis, you live pretty much close enough to Target's headquarters to see it from your window.

是的。

I do.

我想知道你是否同意我的看法，我认为塔吉特只有很短的时间窗口来避免成为下一个凯马特。

I I wonder if you agree with me that I think Target has a relatively short window of opportunity to avoid becoming the next Kmart.

哦。

Oh.

天啊。

Ouch.

我不做

I don't do

我认为他们会倒闭，然后开始搞蓝色浪潮促销之类的活动？

I think they're gonna go out of business and, you know, start doing blue wave specials and things like that?

不。

No.

但过去让Target区别于其他大型零售商、特别是沃尔玛的那些特点，在店内体验方面已经不像以前那么明显了。

But all the things that used to differentiate it from other big box retailers, specifically Walmart, are less apparent than they used to be, just in the in store experience.

他们以前的全渠道布局比沃尔玛更好。

Their omnichannel presence used to be better than Walmart's.

现在不是了。

Now it's not.

这只是其中一个例子。

It's just one example of it.

他们真的需要重新给人们一个去那里的理由，尤其是在消费者现在承受压力的时候。

And and they need to really get back to giving people a reason to go there, especially times like this when consumers are squeezed.

是的。

Yeah.

卢，这个情况真有点奇怪，因为它的估值非常有吸引力，市盈率只有个位数到低双位数。

Lou, this this has been a strange one to watch because the valuation is really compelling, low low double digits price to earnings multiple.

这就是为什么尽管今天大盘下跌，该股票在开盘初期还是上涨了。

That's why the stock, at least early in trading, was up on the news despite we've got the fact that we have a down day.

但你知道，马特说得对。

But, you know, the Matt's right.

预期是正面结果，而目前正面总比负面好。

Guidance was for positive results, and it's just better than negative at this point.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，首先，市场对它的预期本来就很低。

I mean, first of all, three chairs for low expectations.

对吧？

Right?

因为，你看，这也不是毫无意义。

Because, look, it's not nothing.

在如此糟糕的一天里，它们却上涨了4%。

They're up 4% on a day that's just miserable.

所以，这在正常情况下可是个巨大的涨幅。

So that is I mean, that's a monster move on a normal day.

但没错，收入下降了，同店销售额也下降了。

But, yeah, revenue was down, comp sales down.

我的意思是，大家之所以欢呼，是因为情况本可能更糟，而实际上并没有。

I mean, basically, the the the cheer is it could have been worse and it wasn't.

嗯。

Mhmm.

你知道，我觉得马特的比较，我不确定他是不是想预测什么，也许他是。

You know, look, I I think that Matt's comparison, I don't I don't think that was meant as a prediction or maybe it was.

我还没准备好走到那一步。

I'm not I'm not ready to go there yet.

但我认为投资者心里有这个概念是好事，因为这是一个你的过往业绩毫无意义的行业。

But I think it is good for investors to have in mind because this is an industry where you, you know, you your legacy means nothing.

我认为，第一步是摆脱这种恶性循环。

And I do think I mean, step one is to get out of a spiral.

第二步是重新确立自己作为目的地的地位。

Step two is to reestablish yourself as a destination.

塔吉特时代要想重回巅峰会很难。

The Tarjay era is gonna be hard to get back.

就连百思买也是这样。

And what like, even Best Buy.

如果我需要电子产品，我会去百思买。

Best Buy, if I need electronics, I go to Best Buy.

如果我需要运动用品，我会去迪克体育用品。

If I need athletics, I I go to Dick's.

塔吉特只是那种‘我们什么都有’的店。

Target is just kind of, well, we got everything.

但这根本算不上差异化优势。

And that's not really a differentiator.

我认为这对管理层和投资者来说是最困难的部分。

I think that that's the really hard thing for management and for investors here.

如果塔吉特想要繁荣，他们必须找到这个问题的答案。

If Target is to thrive, they have to figure out the answer to that question.

否则，它将不会成为凯马特，而只是原地踏步，获得非常微小的增长。

If not, it's going to be if not Kmart, kind of just treading water and, you know, very small gains.

作为投资者，我对这一点不会感到兴奋。

And as an investor, I'm not gonna get excited about that.

马特，你认为这会是一个逆转的故事吗？

Matt, do you think this is something that can be a turnaround story?

还是说事情已经太晚了？

Or is is it are things just kinda too far gone?

因为你不可能像沃尔玛那样拥有这些大型折扣零售商。

Because you're not gonna be able to have these mass discount retailers like you have with Walmart.

现在没有空间容纳两家这样的公司了。

There's not there's not room for two of them anymore.

以前如果有包括西尔斯在内的那群零售商，一共有三到四家。

There used to be three or four if you include Sears in that with with that group as well.

我现在有点困惑的是，管理层到底应该怎么做？

That's what I sort of struggle with right now is what should management you're doing?

你提到他们有了新的首席执行官。

You mentioned that they have a new CEO.

这还能成为一次逆转的故事吗？

Is this a turnaroundable story?

可以的。

It is.

他们首先必须统一整个品牌门店的体验。

They have to, one, normalize their store experience across their brand.

你可能知道，我在奥兰多有一处度假屋，那里那家塔吉特超市总是人满为患。

You probably know, I have a vacation house in Orlando, and the Target there is always packed.

非常棒。

It's beautiful.

它总是很干净。

It's always clean.

它有我需要的一切。

It's got everything I need.

我附近的那家完全相反。

The one near me is the complete opposite.

同时工作的收银员从不超过两个，店内体验非常糟糕。

There's never more than two cashiers working at the same time, and it's just a terrible in store experience.

那里有很多不好的地方。

There's a lot to not like about that.

我喜欢他们大力推广会员计划，不是因为我认为99美元的Target Circle 360会员会带来巨大影响——虽然它同比增长了25%，但对他们的利润来说仍然只是个零头。

I do like that they're really leaning into their membership program, not because I think the $99 membership to target Circle three sixty is gonna make a big difference, which was up 25% year over year, but it's it's still a, you know, a rounding error in their earnings.

但该计划的平均会员消费额是非会员的八倍。

But the average member of that spends eight times more than the average nonmember.

所以我非常欣赏他们对这一点的重视。

So I really like that they're leaning into that.

他们最近的举措是正确的。

Latest they're making the right moves.

我不愿说这已经成了凯马特，但管理层应该非常担心它会变成下一个凯马特。

I don't wanna say that this is Kmart yet, but they should be management should be very afraid of this becoming the next Kmart.

是的。

Yeah.

如果他们想提升效率，我免费给个建议。

Free tip for them if they wanna get their efficiency levels up.

我们周围的所有塔吉特超市都有大约17到18个结账通道，可能像马特说的，只有一两个在使用，然后还有两个独立的自助结账区，但大部分都关闭了。

Every target around us, they have about 17 or 18 checkout lanes, maybe like Matt says, one or two occupied, and then two separate self checkout sections that are mostly closed.

我从来没去过那里时两个自助结账区都开着的。

I've never been in there where both are open.

你们完全可以拆除大量设备，卖掉它，我不知道。

You could just rip out a lot of technology, sell it I don't know.

这简直是浪费，可以拿到百思买翻新一下，直接赚钱。

It's it's a it on Best Buy refurbish and, just make money right there.

说实话，我仍然使用Target，但我越来越害怕去Target了。

Seriously, I still use Target, but I I more and more dreading going to Target.

我认为这是一个挑战。

I think that this is a challenge here.

也许他们能做到，但作为投资者，我再次强调，我并不打算加仓。

I maybe they can do it, but I as an investor, again, I'm just not looking to lean in.

如果他们真的做到了，那么今天的股价其实非常便宜。

If they do pull it off, it is a very cheap stock today.

所以未来，估值扩张也会是这个故事的一部分。

So multiple expansion would be part of that story in the future.

我们回来后，将讨论一些低价股票和内部人士的买入行为。

When we come back, we're gonna talk about some cheap stocks and some insider buys.

这些行为有意义吗？

Do they mean something or not?

您正在收听《富达金钱》。

You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

每周二，我们都会深入探讨安全世界，欢迎收听《Security Now》。

Every Tuesday, we take a deep dive into the world of security with Security Now.

嗨。

Hi.

我是利奥·拉波特。

This is Leo Laporte.

请和我以及史蒂夫·吉布森一起，了解最新的安全资讯。

Join me and Steve Gibson as we talk about the latest security information.

那份关于密码管理器未能充分保护其保险库的大报告。

That big report that says password managers don't protect their vaults well enough.

史蒂夫会详细分析内容，解释其含义，以及为什么你不必过于担心。

Steve will look at the details, explain what it means, and why you don't have to be too worried.

但无论如何，这些信息在本周二以及每个周二都值得了解。

But still, good to know all of that this Tuesday and every Tuesday.

Security Now。

Security now.

你可以在我们的网站 twit.tv/sn 或任何你收听播客的地方找到它。

You'll find it on our website at twit.tv/sn or wherever you get your podcasts.

欢迎回到《富比士金钱》节目，由隐藏宝藏团队为您主持。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Money with the Hidden Gems team.

内部人士买入有意义吗？

Do insider buys matter?

这是我们作为投资者经常讨论的话题之一。

This is one of these things that we often talk about as investors.

内部人士卖出的原因多种多样，但他们买入只有一个原因——因为他们对某只股票看涨。

Insiders sell for all kinds of reasons, but they only buy for one reason because they're bullish on a stock.

至少，这是理论上的说法。

So at least that's the theory.

马特，最近我们看到一些内部人士买入，这也是我一直关注的一点，你知道，有些股票价格很低。

Matt, we have some insider buys recently, and this is one of the things I've been watching is, you know, you have some low stock prices.

内部人士会买入吗？

Are insiders gonna buy?

他们会宣布股票回购吗？

Are they gonna announce buybacks?

我们看到了SoFi的安东尼·诺托、ServiceNow的比尔·麦克德莫特、Shift4的贾里德·艾萨克曼。

We saw Anthony Noto at SoFi, Bill McDermott at ServiceNow, Jared Isaacman at Shift4.

这些是进行股票回购的一些知名人物。

Those are some of the bigger names doing buybacks.

这对投资者来说是大事，还是只是噪音？

Is that a big deal, or is it noise for investors?

这和管理层宣布股票被低估一样重要。

It matters in the same sense that an accelerated buyback management saying that the stock is cheap.

如果回购动作更激进，这一点尤其明显，比如以SoFi为例。

That's especially true if it's on the more aggressive side, which let's take SoFi, for example.

安东尼·诺托刚刚花了100万美元购买股票。

Anthony Noto, he just spent $1,000,000 to buy shares.

这听起来很多，但他持有的股票价值达2.1亿美元，是公司的最大股东。

That sounds like a lot, but he owns $210,000,000 worth of shares and is the company's largest stockholder.

所以他将持股比例提高了0.5%。

So he increased his position by point 5%.

但我要说的是，上次他积极买入股票时，是在2022年底到2023年初，他是一笔一笔买的。

But what I will say is last time he aggressively bought shares, it happened during the late twenty twenty two, early twenty twenty three period, and he did it as a series of buys.

并不是说他一次性买了5000万美元。

It wasn't like he bought, you know, $50,000,000 all at once.

他在这里买了一百万美元。

He bought a million dollars here.

几天后，他又买了另一百万，如此反复。

A few days later, he bought another million and so on and so on and so on.

如果我没记错的话，当时股价大约是6美元。

And if I remember right, the stock was about $6 a share.

当时大概是6美元。

It was about $6.

所以即使在最近的下跌之后，股价仍然是他买入价的三倍。

So even after the recent downturn, it's still a triple from where he bought it.

所以如果他开始行动，而这成为一系列买入的开端，可能会引起更多关注。

So when he starts if he if if this turns into the first of a series of buys, it might take more notice.

但当公司和其管理层开始言行一致、真金白银地投入时，这确实很好。

But it is nice when, you know, companies and the executives who run them start putting their money where their mouth is.

这并不会从根本上改变公司的业务。

It doesn't it changes nothing fundamentally about the business.

相比之下，股票回购比内部人士买入的影响更大。

Buybacks do that more than than insider buying does.

但这确实是一种很好的验证，表明他们也认为股价被低估，并希望采取行动来提升自己的财富。

But it it is nice validation that that, you know, they also think that the stock is cheap and wanted to do something about it to help their own wealth.

露？

Lou?

我甚至可以说，这重要吗？

I'll go as far as to say, does it matter?

我想，有点重要。

I guess, kinda.

但这是否是一个值得关注的信号呢？

But is it a signal worth watching?

不是。

No.

就像你说的，销售发生的原因有很多。

Just like, as you say, sales happen for a lot of reasons.

我的意思是，你看。

These I mean, look.

这在一定程度上是一种营销手段。

This is a, partially marketing.

安东尼·诺托为什么在买入时买了一百万股？他是在传递信号。

Why does Anthony Noto buy a million shares when he buy he's trying to signal.

这其实就是一种新闻稿形式。

It's it's it's a form of a press release.

另一点是，尽管首席执行官们拥有内部信息，但他们往往也会相信自己的宣传。

The other thing too is is that while CEOs have inside knowledge, they also tend to, you know, believe their own hype.

所以，我的意思是，我不认为——也许从侧面来看，是的，他们看涨确实很好。

So, I mean, I I I don't think I mean, maybe on the side, like, yeah, it's great that they're bullish.

他们理应看涨。

They better be bullish.

他们可是在经营这家公司。

They're running the dang company.

要是不行，就滚蛋，去找别人吧。

Get out of there and find someone else.

否则，我更愿意直接看基本面，看看市场这些真正的东西。

If not, I would much rather just look at fundamentals, look at thing you know, markets.

作为投资者，我不认为我会基于这个做出决定。

I don't think that as an investor, I'm gonna make a decision based on this.

这很好。

It's great.

太棒了。

Yippee.

但我认为人们对这件事赋予了过多的含义。

But I don't I I I I think much more is read into this than it should be.

是的。

Yeah.

以诺托为例。

Just to take Noto as an example.

在过去两年里，他在SoFi的持股增加了约300万股，这主要是因为限制性股票单位和股权激励等原因。

Over the last two years, his position in SoFi has increased by about 3,000,000 shares, and that's because of restricted stock units, grants, things like that.

所以买入5.6万股很不错。

So buying 56,000 shares is great.

这很好。

That's great.

但与他迄今为止作为高管获得的薪酬相比，这个数量非常小。

But it is very small compared to what he has been given as compensation for running so far.

所以这里可能两者都有些影响。

So maybe a little bit of both here.

和往常一样，节目中的人员可能对其讨论的股票有利益关联，而富达基金可能已对这些股票做出正式的买入或卖出建议，因此请勿仅凭所听到的内容买卖股票。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stock based solely on what you hear.

所有个人理财内容均遵循富达基金的编辑标准，且未经过广告商批准。

All personal finance content follows The Motley Fool's editorial standards and is not approved by advertisers.

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感谢在幕后工作的路·怀特曼、马特·弗兰克尔和丹·博伊德，我是特拉维斯·霍亚姆。

For Lou Whiteman, Matt Frankel, and Dan Boyd behind the glass, I'm Travis Hoyam.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

我们明天再见。

We'll see you here tomorrow.