鲁莽的收益预测：ZM、BBY、DE

想听些不计后果的收益预测吗？

In the market for some reckless earnings predictions?

你来对地方了。

You've come to the right place.

你正在收听《Motley Full Money》。

You're listening to Motley Full Money.

欢迎收听，傻瓜们。

Welcome, fools.

我是主持人Tim Byers，和我一起的还有资深傻瓜Rick Pinarez和Dave Meyer。

I'm your host, Tim Byers, and with me are longtime fools, Rick Pinarez, Dave Meyer.

伙计们，我们怎么样？

Fellas, how are we doing?

咖啡因补足了吗？

Fully caffeinated?

周末过得愉快吗？

Good weekends?

是的，没错。

Yes and yes.

全部都是。

Yes to all.

好的。

Alright.

今天，我们将针对本周公布财报的三只股票做出一些大胆的盈利预测。

Today, we're gonna be making some reckless earnings predictions for three stocks reporting this week.

Zoom通讯（股票代码ZM）、百思买（股票代码BBY）以及迪尔公司（股票代码DE）。

Zoom Communications, Best Buy, so Zoom ticker ZM, Best Buy ticker BBY, and Deere and Company ticker DE.

当您听到这期节目时，Zoom很可能已经公布了财报，所以请留言告诉我们预测得准不准。

Zoom will likely have reported by the time you're listening to this, so please leave us a comment to let us know how well or poorly we did.

现在让我们开始吧。

Now let's get into it.

这个大胆预测游戏很简单：我先给出我们对这些公司的预期数据，然后你们告诉我实际结果会低于预期吗？

The reckless predictions game is gonna be pretty simple here, and we're gonna start with I'm gonna give you the numbers we've got for where what we should expect for each of these companies, and you guys are gonna tell me, is it gonna be a miss?

会超出预期吗？

Is it gonna be a beat?

还是会超出预期并上调指引？

Or is it gonna be a beat and raise?

从Zoom开始，它今天下午已经发布了财报，市场普遍预期营收为12.1亿美元，非GAAP每股收益预期为1.43美元。

And starting with Zoom, which again reported this afternoon, consensus is 1,210,000,000.00 for revenue, and earnings per share of the consensus is a dollar 43¢ a share on a non GAAP basis.

那么Rick和Dave，Rick，从你开始，是低于预期、超出预期，还是超出预期并上调指引？

So Rick and Dave, Rick, starting with you, miss, beat, or beat and raise?

好的。

Yeah.

所以我选择超出预期并且

So I'm gonna go with a beat and

这次要加码，稍后我再解释原因。

raise on this one, and I guess I'll explain it later.

但我想你现在就只想听我说‘超出预期并加码’对吧。

But I think you just want me to say beat and raise right now.

那我就

So I'll We're gonna we're

我们马上开始讨论。

gonna get into it.

戴夫，你呢？

Dave, how about yourself?

我选择'beat'（超出预期）。

I'm going with beat.

选择'beat'。

Going with beat.

好的。

Alright.

我想先请你解释一下，戴夫。

I think I'm gonna want you to explain first here, Dave.

不。

Nope.

只是小幅超出预期，没有上调。

Just a beat, no raise.

是的。

Yeah.

回顾过去，大概10到12个季度吧，嗯。

So, looking back at the last, I don't know, 10 to 12 quarters Mhmm.

他们每次都在营收和业绩上超出预期。

They have beaten the revenue, beaten their numbers each time.

所以在我看来，我觉得他们有点故意压低预期。

And so, to me, what I what I see, I see a little sandbagging.

我正想说这个。

I was just gonna say.

好吧。

Alright.

因为他们虽然超出幅度不大，但确实每次都超过了管理层给出的指引。

So because they're not they're not big beats, but they are, they are ahead of what management has been guiding.

所以很明显，他们深谙此道，如果你愿意这么说的话。

So, clearly, they know how to play this game, if you will.

不过，确实。

But, yeah.

这就是为什么我说'小幅超出'。

So that's why I say beat.

我了解得还不够多，无法断言他们是否会根据预期调整目标。

I don't know enough to say, you know, if if if they'll continue to if they'll raise based on, expectations.

所以我非常好奇想听听Rick对此的看法。

So I'm very curious to hear what Rick has to say about that.

是啊。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

Rick，我们来聊聊这个吧。

Rick, let let's talk about it.

击败光芒队。

Beating rays.

为什么你认为光芒队会来这里？

Why you why you think the rays is coming in here?

是的。

Yeah.

所以，再次强调，Zoom就像是你藏在2020年时间胶囊里的玩具，却忘了取出电池。

So so, again, Zoom, it's like this toy you stashed away in the 2020 time capsule, but you forget to take out the batteries.

所以它仍在继续运转。

So it's still still going.

我认为人们没有意识到这是Zoom连续第四年实现个位数收入增长。

And I think people don't realize this is the fourth consecutive year of single digit revenue growth, for Zoom.

没错，是个位数增长，但毕竟是增长。

So, yeah, single digit growth, sure, but growth.

我想很多投资者原以为，哦，在后疫情时代Zoom没有立足之地，但它依然重要。

And I think a lot of investors figured, oh, well, Zoom like, there's no place for Zoom in the post pandemic future, but it's it's matters.

对我来说有趣的是，经过多年缓慢增长后，你必须在利润上做出成绩。

And to me, a funny thing happens, when when after years of slow growth, you make sure that you have to impress on the bottom line.

正如戴夫指出的，他们过去曾超出预期。

And as Dave points out, they have beaten in the past.

虽然通常只是微弱优势，但我认为他们有足够时间积累动能，最新季度已开始显现。

And, yeah, while it's usually like a slim margin, I think there's enough there where they've had enough time and and and they're starting to build momentum, in their latest quarter.

收入增长实际上开始小幅上升，我认为情况确实在好转。

Revenue growth actually started to tick up a little bit that I think this is actually doing a little better.

所以我估计他们仍有足够的空间超越预期。

So I I figured they had still have enough room to beat.

是的。

Yeah.

如果这没发生反而会令人震惊，不确定评论区或播客会显示戴夫和我预测得有多离谱。

I think it's it's it's it'd shocking if it doesn't happen and and not sure the comment section, if the podcast will tell how bad Dave and I may have gotten that.

但我确实认为还有加薪的空间。

But I do think there's gonna be enough room for a raise.

那我们聊聊

So let's talk

稍微讨论一下，然后我们接着谈谈百思买的一些关键驱动因素。

a little bit and then we'll move on to to Best Buy here of some some of the key drivers here.

Zoom AI助手是Zoom一直在寻求的，或许能推动其企业计划席位的一些增销。

The Zoom AI companion is, you know, something that Zoom has been looking for to maybe drive some upsell in in the seats on its on its enterprise plan.

但这是一个平台策略，他们业务分为分为两部分。

But this is a platform play here, and they have two parts of the business.

他们既有企业业务，也有常规的消费者业务。

They have the enterprise business, and then they have the regular consumer business.

消费者业务是拖后腿的那部分。

The consumer business is the one that's dragging.

你知道，他们从中获利甚微，几乎毫无收益。

It just you know, they make very little, really nothing on it.

这就像是个拖累利润的锚。

It is like an anchor to margins.

企业业务是他们获取所有大客户的地方。

The enterprise business is where they get all the big customers.

所以如果我要问你们两位，你们是否预期会有一些超常表现？

So if I had to ask you both, are you expecting some outperformance?

比如，这里有几条可能的路径。

Like, it's there there's there's a couple ways this could go.

对吧？

Right?

如果他们表现超预期，可能是因为运营效率极高，也可能是因为在企业业务上真正取得了平台业务的进展。

If they beat, they could beat by just being very operationally efficient, or they could be beating by getting some real traction in generating some some platform business, that enterprise business.

那么戴夫，如果我问你这个问题，你预期企业业务会有些许增长势头，还是说这只是Zoom深谙游戏规则的表现？

So Dave, if I ask you this, are you expecting a little bit of momentum in the enterprise business, or is this just, hey, man, Zoom knows how to play the game?

我认为，回顾过去，Zoom是有史以来被企业最快采纳的产品之一，对吧？

So I think, again, if we go back to what happened, Zoom is one of the most quickly adopted products ever, especially by enterprise, right?

当时存在需求，而它满足了这一需求。

There was a need, and it met it.

所以到了那个阶段，一切都是渐进式的。

And so if at that point, it's all incremental.

通过渐进式改进让产品稍好一些、用户粘性更强一些，或许还能获得小幅度的渐进式定价提升。

So doing things incrementally to make their product a little better, a little more sticky, maybe they get a little bit of incremental pricing.

我认为所有业务都是渐进式的，尤其是企业端业务会稍微好一些。

I think it's all incremental businesses, a little bit better, especially on the enterprise side.

好吧。

Alright.

小幅改进也能带来长远影响，瑞克。

A little bit better goes a long way, Rick.

你同意这个观点吗？

You agree with that?

是的。

Yeah.

我同意。

I do.

但我认为主要预期还是在运营层面，因为重申一下，当我提到加注时，指的是桌上最小的筹码。

But I think most I'm expecting mostly on the operational side just because, again, when I did say raise, I'm I'm talking about the the smallest poker chip on your table.

那正是你用来加注的筹码。

That's what you're just using to raise this.

对我而言，这家公司我并不期待会有大幅增长。

To me, this is a company that I'm not expecting great growth.

再说，你也看到了，从3%增长到4%并不是什么大事，但我确实认为存在小幅改进。

And again, you are seeing sort of like, you know, three to go from 3% to 4% growth isn't such a big deal, but I do think there's minor improvements.

我不认为过去三个月发生了什么惊人的变化，但我确实看到他们在运营上有所改善，确保实现了底线目标。

I don't think any spectacular has happened in the last three months, but I do see that they're getting better about their operations and making sure that they're delivering on the bottom line.

所以我认为更多是运营层面的进步，而非企业级的那种重大突破之类的。

So I think more operational, than just the enterprise, you know, advancements and whatnot.

好的。

Alright.

我们接着讨论百思买，股票代码BBY，它今年迄今表现逊于市场近24%。

Let's move on to Best Buy, ticker b b y, which has underperformed the market by close to 24% year to date.

我们这里的数字是95.8亿美元，代表约1.5%的同比增长，增长相当微弱，非GAAP每股收益共识预期为1.31美元。

So our numbers here are 9,580,000,000.00 that represents about one and a half percent year over year growth, so pretty meager growth here in a consensus estimate of a dollar 31 a share non GAAP.

我也会提供这里的同比数据。

I'll also give you the comps here.

他们的预期与我们最近看到的情况相对类似，至少是1.5%的增长。

The their their the estimate is for relatively similar to what we've seen recently, so at least one and a half percent.

那么，里克，回到你这里，对于百思买的这些数字，你是预测不及预期、超出预期还是维持不变？

So, Rick, going back to you, miss, beat, or beaten raise on those numbers for Best Buy?

我预测会不及预期。

I'm gonna go with a miss.

我选择押注小概率事件。好的。

I'm taking the long odds and Okay.

罕见的不及预期。

Rare miss.

是的。

Yes.

好的。

Alright.

戴夫。

Dave.

嗯。

Yeah.

这个很难说，但我实际上要站在另一边，预测会超出预期。

This one is hard, but I'm actually gonna take the other side and go with the beat.

好的。

Okay.

让我们从不及预期开始。

Let's start with the miss.

里克，是什么让你认为这次会不及预期？

Rick, what what makes you think that this is a miss?

是的。

Yeah.

好的。

Okay.

所以我猜想百思买在本财年第三季度（截至本月初）卖出了很多iPhone 17。

So I imagine Best Buy, they sold a lot of iPhone seventeens during the fiscal third quarter that ended at the start of this month.

还有呢？

What else?

这是任天堂Switch二代上市后的第一个完整财季，但它主要是六月初才推出的。

This is the first full fiscal quarter of Nintendo Switch two on the market, but most that came out in early June.

这些大部分都是在六月和七月，也就是本季度之前售出的。

So most of those were sold in June and July before this quarter.

我认为消费者对像个人电脑和高端笔记本电脑这样的大额消费持谨慎态度。

I think consumers are leery of big ticket purchases like PCs and and higher end laptops.

房地产市场对百思买非常重要，因为他们销售大量家电，最近还增加了户外家具等商品。

The housing market, which is really important to Best Buy because they do a lot of appliances, and they've gotten outdoor furniture and stuff lately.

这很冷淡。

That's icy.

我看不出那里有任何改善的迹象。

I don't see anything improving there.

而且，是的，预期很低。

And, yeah, the expectations are low.

销售额增长2%。

Sales up 2%.

收益增长4%，基本与股价持平。

The earnings up 4%, pretty much share.

尽管百思买在过去三个季度中连续三次达标，但我觉得现在正是它显露疲态的时候，毕竟最近众多零售商的表现参差不齐。

But even though Best Buy has is three for three in its last three quarters, I think this feels like it's a perfect time for it to prove mortal right now with with so many retailers putting out some, you know, different mixed pictures lately.

所以，是的，我认为百思买此刻正如NSYNC乐队所唱的那样——买买买，而不是说再见。

So, yeah, I think this is the time where Best Buy is gonna, you know, in the words of NSYNC, Best Buy Buy Buy, and not, you know, say goodbye.

最后两次是买买买，不是像克莱默那样连续说三遍‘买’（英文拼写）。

The last two was the last two buys were the buy buy, not not I'm not saying b u I three times like Kramer.

是啊。

Yeah.

非常棒。

Very nice.

好的，戴夫。

Alright, Dave.

让我为你准备好你的报道。

Let me tee you up to for your beat.

你真的能报道好吗？要知道，他们在电器领域确实遇到了困难，而这可是百思买的一大业务。

Can you really go beat with the you know, they've really struggled in the appliance sector here, and that's a big business for Best Buy.

告诉我你为什么有信心能做好报道。

Tell me why you're confident in the beat.

我认为他们的客户还没有真正感受到经济形势的影响。

So I don't think that their their customers have really started to feel a lot of what's happening in in the economy.

我觉得通常低收入阶层的客户感受会更明显。

I think it's typically more felt by customers in lower income brackets.

话虽如此，我明白你的意思。

That being said, I get what you're saying.

但我还要说的是，这个团队非常了解他们的业务。

But the other thing I would say is this team, they know their business really well.

他们不会给自己设定一个难以跨越的高目标。

And they're not going to set a target for themselves that is a high hurdle to try to jump over.

他们会尝试设定一个可以轻松跨过的门槛。

They're gonna try to set something that is, know, something they can just step over.

对吧？

Right?

所以我可能完全错了。

So I could very well be wrong.

我承认这一点。

I'll admit that.

但是，

But K.

再次强调，如果回顾最近的历史，他们在这一环节也表现得很好。

Again, if I go back to the most recent history, they have they have played this part of the game well as well.

我认为他们并没有给自己设套。

And I think they're I I don't think that they're setting themselves up.

我不认为他们会做出任何可能导致自己失败的事情。

I don't think they would do anything to set themselves up for failure.

所以我们拭目以待吧。

So we shall we shall see.

很高兴看到我们在这件事上持不同立场，因为这真的就像抛硬币一样充满不确定性。

Good to see we're on both sides of this one because because it literally is a coin, like, a coin flip.

是啊。

Yeah.

我是说，这很有趣。

I mean, it's interesting.

最终可能还是要看客流量数据的对比。

It is probably gonna come down to foot trafficking comps.

如果要我做个大胆预测的话，最终可能还是要看客流量数据的对比。

If I had to make my own reckless prediction here, it's probably gonna come down to foot trafficking comps.

如果他们能做到，比如说超过1.6%，那么我认为你可能是对的，戴夫。

And if they're able to go, let's say, over 1.6%, then I think you're probably right here, Dave.

不过我们还是继续讨论这里最大的公司吧，那个工业巨头——约翰迪尔。

But let's keep moving on to the biggest of the the companies here, the big industrial monster that is John Deere.

当我开始准备这个话题时，约翰迪尔的那首歌又在我脑海里响起来了。

And when I I when I started prepping to this, the John Deere song came back into my head again.

这让我回想起孩子们还很小的时候，我就想，当初为什么要做这个呢？

It took me back to the days when the kids were really small, and it's like, why did I do this?

为什么我选择这只股票？

Why did I select this ticker?

我来告诉你原因。

I'll tell you why.

它是这个经济体的重要指标，让我们来看看这些数字。

It is an important indicator for this economy, and let's go through the numbers here.

100亿的收入是市场普遍预期的数字。

10,000,000,000 in revenue is the consensus estimate.

每股收益（EPS）为3.96美元。

EPS or earnings per share of $3.96.

那么Rick，对于农业巨头约翰迪尔来说，是未达预期、超出预期，还是勉强达标？

So Rick, miss, beat, or beaten raise for the big agricultural, monster that is John Deere?

未达预期。

Miss.

未达预期。

Miss.

好的。

Okay.

Dave，你怎么看？

Dave, what do you say?

是未达预期、超出预期，还是勉强达标？

Miss, beat, or beaten raise?

我也认为是未达预期。

I'm going with miss as well.

哇。

Wow.

好吧。

Okay.

这可不太妙。

This is gonna be foul.

我们先把这个问题放一放，讨论几分钟。

Let's let's park on this for a couple minutes here.

我需要你们每个人都多说一点，因为——我是说，这很有趣，因为这家公司不仅仅在农业领域占据主导地位。

I need a little bit more from each of you because I'll I'll I mean, this is interesting because this is a company that doesn't just have a lock on the ag sector.

他们正在将一些人工智能功能引入部分产品中，比如新型的AI驱动除草系统'See and Spray'。

They are introducing some AI features into some of their their products, like the new See and Spray for AI powered weed killing.

那么为什么这里会有负面情绪呢？

So why the why the negativity here?

戴夫，从你开始说吧。

And I'll start with you, Dave.

首先，我认为有大量农民目前处境艰难。

First of all, I think there's a whole lot of farmers out there who are struggling.

嗯。

Mhmm.

好的。

Okay.

所以我们将观察他们在作物滞销的情况下，愿意在技术上进行多少超额支出。

So we'll we'll see just how much they're willing to excess spending they're willing to do on technologies when some of their crops aren't even being sold.

另外，如果我没记错的话，今年早些时候曾出现过一次下滑。

The other thing is, if I recall correctly through the throughout this year, there was a drop earlier.

经过调整后，势头有所恢复。

Deer adjusted and has seen some momentum some momentum come back.

但再次强调，从我的宏观视角来看，需求前景似乎不太明朗。

But, again, the back the the demand picture, at least in my 10,000 foot level view of this, it seems dicey.

这就是为什么我更倾向于预测业绩会不及预期而非超出预期。

That's why I would be that's why I'd be probably betting more on the miss side than the beat side.

好的。

Alright.

瑞克，话题这么消极，你还有什么要为自己辩解的吗？

Rick, what do you what else what do gotta say for yourself here on that negativity?

嗯。

Yeah.

我喜欢大卫的观点，而且，公司十有八九会超出预期。

I love that David and mean, again, companies more more more more than likely than not, they're gonna beat they're gonna have a beat.

这很正常。

That's just the norm.

对一些公司来说这几乎是默认设定。

It's just almost a default setting with some companies.

但这家公司...我讨厌自己变得像个拖拉机黑或挖掘机喷子，或是那些开推土机割草机的家伙。

But this one and I and I hate I'm becoming like a like a tractor detractor or an excavator hater or whatever rides a dozer or mower.

下次我会把这个梗用上。

I'll work that in next time.

对我来说，问题在于这感觉像是个陷阱。

To me, the problem here is that this feels like a trap.

分析师们已经看到盈利能力受到重创。

Analysts, they already see profitability taking a big hit.

所以你已经在想，好吧。

So you're already thinking, okay.

这已经被市场消化了。

It's already discounted.

这已经被市场消化了。

It's already priced in.

但就在上周，短短七天内，其中三位分析师下调了他们对本季度的利润预期。

But just last week, just in the last seven days, three of these analysts lowered, their profit targets for this quarter.

当你看到这种临时的、你知道的、下调动作时，这些比我更密切关注市场的华尔街专业人士，开始察觉到一些疲软迹象。

When you kinda see that last minute, like, you know, adjustment lower, these people, these Wall Street pros that watch the year a lot closer than I ever will, are starting to see some weakness.

所以我这就是为什么我预测会不及预期。

So I that's why I went with the miss.

我是说，我没想到你会直接搬出阿克巴上将那句名言，不过，干得漂亮。

I mean, I didn't expect you to go full admiral Akbar there, but, that's well done.

但这件事确实有争议，我这么说完咱们就继续往下讨论。

But there is there is an argument for this, and I'll say this and we'll we'll move on.

他们一直在库存问题上挣扎。

They have struggled with inventory.

如果那个库存问题，如果那些积压的二手设备无法从经销商场地清出去的话。

And if that inventory problem, if that backlog of used equipment is not moving off dealer lots.

就很难把新设备运进那些经销商场地，这对迪尔公司来说是个大问题。

It's gonna be really difficult to get new equipment onto those dealer lots, and that that is a problem for Deere.

好吧。

Alright.

那么总结一下，我们有三份财报要看。

Let's so to summarize here, we have three earnings reports.

Zoom今天下午发布财报。

Zoom reports this afternoon.

百思买将在明天早上，也就是周二上午公布财报，周二上午），

Best Buy reports tomorrow morning, Tuesday morning, and Deere reports Wednesday morning.

我们的股票代码是 z m b b y 代表百思买，d e 代表迪尔公司（即老牌约翰迪尔公司）。

Our tickers are z m b b y for Best Buy, and d e for Deer, the old John Deere company.

请告诉我们你的想法。

Let us know what you think.

告诉我们。

Tell us.

我们说得对吗？

Were we right?

我们说得不对吗？

Were we wrong?

你认为我们这次的分析有偏差吗？

Do you think we're we're off the mark here?

你还想听更多大胆的财报预测吗？

And do you want more reckless earnings predictions?

这正是我们真正想了解的。

That's what we really wanna know here.

但接下来，我们将迎来另一场'伪装者还是颠覆者'的游戏。

But coming up next, it's another game of faker or breaker.

好的。

Alright.

欢迎回到Motley Fool Money节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.

这又是一场'伪装者还是颠覆者'的游戏。

It's another, it's another game of faker or breaker.

提醒一下，这里的规则非常简单。

As a reminder, the rules here are very simple.

我们会讨论三家公司，针对每一家我都会询问你们两位。

We go through three companies, and I ask you both for each of these companies.

它是伪装者还是颠覆者？

Is it a faker or a breaker?

我们所说的‘伪成长’公司，是指那些看似拥有巨大增长潜力或未来机遇，但这些机会实际上存在上限或局限，它表面上可能具备成为颠覆者的成长性，却缺乏真正使其成为规则颠覆者的特质。

And what we mean by a faker is a company that has plenty of growth or a lot of opportunity ahead, but that opportunity is capped or limited, it doesn't really it looks like it might have the growth to achieve breakerdom, but it just doesn't have the attributes that would make it a rule breaker.

这次会有些不同，因为这是一期关于企业转型的特辑——‘伪成长还是真颠覆’。

And this one's gonna be a little bit different because this is kind of a turnaround edition, a faker or breaker.

有些公司曾经...我们之前也探讨过这类案例。

Some companies that have had and we've done this before.

对吧？

Right?

有时候对于规则颠覆者，你会看到那些乌云背后透出光明的企业。

Sometimes with rule breakers, you have companies where you have dark clouds you can see through.

我想了解这些公司的情况，先从你开始，Dave，对于C3AI（股票代码AI），你认为我们能看透C3AI的乌云吗？

And I wanna know for these companies, and I'm gonna start with you, Dave, for C3AI, ticker AI, do you think there are dark clouds we can see through for C3AI?

在AI领域，前景一片晴空万里，而这家公司却无法驾驭这个领域，多年来始终未能突破。

So in the AI space, it is nothing but clear skies, clear blue skies ahead, and this is a company that cannot navigate it and hasn't been able to for a number of years.

要我说，这简直是史上最名不副实的‘伪成长’案例。

I mean, this is the biggest faker that there's been.

这家公司恰好在人工智能兴起时成立。

This is a company that started right when AI was picking up.

他们当时的定位非常精准。

They were so well positioned.

但他们始终未能真正通过自己的平台抓住市场需求。

And they just haven't been able to really capture the demand that's out there with their platform.

然后

And then

所以如果我给

So if I give

新CEO史蒂文——我肯定念错名字了——何谦上任，这对你没有任何影响吗？

you new CEO, Steven I'm sure I'm butchering this name, but Hequian as the new CEO, that doesn't do anything for you?

没有。

No.

说真的，你们公司现在应该考虑出售自己了。

Seriously, you're at a point where your company should be selling itself.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

比如，你们应该有个品牌。

Like, you should have a brand.

你们应该有个平台。

You should have a platform.

你们应该提供人们所需的所有服务。

You should have all the services that people are looking for.

但就是缺乏发展势头。

And it's just the momentum just has not gotten there.

事实上，我认为明年或今年，很快他们就会面临销售额下滑。

And in fact, I believe that next year or this year or coming up very soon, they're expecting a decline in sales.

所以你们需要缩减规模以试图重振增长。

So you're going to have to shrink in order to try to reinvigorate growth.

是啊，这家公司现在有很多问题。

So, yeah, there's a lot there's a lot going on at this company.

新CEO上任，重组销售团队，调整运营架构。

New CEO, reorganizing the sales team, reorganizing operations.

在我看来，这不是一个能打破常规的扭转局面之举。

I this is not a this is not a turner a rule breaker turnaround in my opinion.

有道理。

Fair enough.

有道理。

Fair enough.

好的。

Alright.

我们继续吧，瑞克。

Let's move on, Rick.

我要向你介绍Honest公司，股票代码HNST，这家由杰西卡·阿尔巴支持的企业。

I'm gonna give you the honest company, ticker HNST, the the Jessica Alba backed company here.

主营大量消费品业务。

Lots of consumer goods.

我想它可能最出名的是纸尿裤。

I think maybe best known for diapers.

所以这里是个假货还是破坏者。

So faker or breaker here.

里克，你看到我们头顶有些乌云了吗

Rick do you see some dark clouds we

可以看透的。

can see through.

我倾向于认为是个假货。

I'm gonna go with a faker.

但我要告诉你原因。

But I'm gonna tell you why.

因为它...它...它感觉不像假货，但也绝对不像个破坏者。

Because it's it's it's it's it doesn't feel like a faker but it's definitely doesn't feel like a breaker either.

几年前，就在疫情期间，你知道，我简直离不开那款柑橘香草洗发沐浴露。

A few years ago, like, right right around the pandemic, you know, I couldn't get enough of of the citrus vanilla shampoo and body wash.

我是说，它标榜为婴儿产品，但其实是成人也能用的婴儿友好型产品，用完后你会闻起来像橙子奶油冰棍。

I mean, it's labeled as a baby product, but it's a baby friendly product that adults can use, and you wind up smelling like orange creamsicle.

我这么说是因为我确实喜欢橙子和香草混合的味道。

And I mean this in a good way as a fan of orange and vanilla coming together.

不过，我已经好几年没买过它了。

So, but I haven't bought, it in years.

果然，当我查看财务数据时，发现不止我一个人这样。

And sure enough, when I looked at the financials, I'm not alone.

这家公司在2020年及其前一年都实现了两位数增长，业绩爆发。

So this is a company that had this blowout 2020, and the year before that too, with double digit growth.

但诚实公司这五年来收入增长都只有个位数。

But it's been five years of single digit revenue growth here for for the Honest Company.

你提到了阿尔芭，这位联合创始人兼超级明星。

You mentioned Alba, of course, the cofounder and superstar.

她去年卸任了首席创意官，但据我所知仍在董事会。

She stepped down as the chief creative officer last year, but she's still on the board, I believe.

但要在这样的消费品领域脱颖而出确实很难。

But it's hard just to stand out with consumer products like this.

即便你的初衷是好的（再次强调，我希望他们能成功）。

And even when your heart is in the right place and, again, you want them to succeed.

这有点像Chipotle坚持的'诚信食品'理念。

It's almost like the food with integrity that Chipotle has.

这就是他们做消费品的理念：让所有产品都纯净、环保、高效。

That's their approach to consumer products, making everything clean, eco friendly, you know, efficient.

他们每件事都做对了。

They do everything right.

你希望他们能成功，但这里确实没有太多增长空间。

You want them to succeed, but there's not really a lot of growth here.

尽管在个人护理和婴儿产品领域——尤其是婴儿湿巾和尿布市场——他们拥有狂热忠诚的用户群体，但要脱颖而出仍然相当困难。

It's sort of hard to stand out even though it is obviously especially on the on the personal care and the baby products for for the baby wipes and the diapers they have that market where they have their their very fanatically devoted you know user base.

但我们不禁要问，婴儿数量增长是否真是解决方案——这涉及到人口增长率问题，而我不想做这种计算。

But then we're sort of asking ourselves if baby is growth is the solution that we're talking about population rates, and I don't wanna play that math.

所以我选择假货。

So I'm gonna go with faker.

好的。

Alright.

让我们以一家存在已久的企业作为结尾，我希望你们两位都能对此发表一句话，那就是Yelp。

Let's end with, one that has been around for a really long time, and I want you both to come in with a a sentence on this one, and that is Yelp.

可怜的Yelp。

Poor Yelp.

股票代码YELP。

Ticker y e l p.

假货还是真货？

Faker or breaker?

我来给你们铺垫一下，看看能否说服你们这里或许有些真货的迹象。

And I'm gonna give you this to tee it up to see if I can convince you that maybe there's some breakershness here.

他们确实有一个对话式AI工具，能帮助用户预约专业人士。

They do have a conversational AI tool that helps users book pros.

通过该工具提交的项目数量显然增加了400个，说明他们确实获得了一定程度的使用。

There's apparently 400 increase in project submissions through the tool, so they're getting some usage there.

但数据表现可能不如我们期望的那么理想。

But the numbers maybe aren't as great as we would like to see.

那么戴夫，我先听听你的看法。

So Dave, I will start with you.

是徒有其表还是真材实料？

Faker or breaker?

几年前，从估值角度来看，我其实非常看好这家公司。

So a number of years ago, I was actually very bullish on this company from a valuation standpoint.

我认为他们拥有各类数据资源和用户互动优势。

I figured they have all sorts of data, all sorts of engagement.

按理说应该能持续实现业务转型和增长。

They should be able to continue to turn themselves around and grow.

但实际情况完全出乎我的预料。

But man, it just hasn't worked out how I anticipated.

所以我选择Faker。

So I'm going with Faker.

我认为原因在于，我不确定他们是否真有足够的实力应对那些替代产品，这些产品在某些情况下甚至可能做得更好。

And I think the reason is is I don't know if they really have enough oomph to handle the substitute products, right, that are out there that can do the job as well, if not in some cases better.

在我看来，他们未能将用户的转换成本提高到足以留住客户的程度。

So they haven't made their switching costs high enough for people to stay, in my opinion.

而这从长远来看只会对他们造成伤害。

And that that just hurts them over the long longer term.

有道理。

Fair enough.

好的，Rick。

Alright, Rick.

Faker还是breaker？

Faker or breaker?

你能看透这乌云密布的局面吗？

Any can you see through the dark clouds here?

我能硬着头皮穿过乌云，但这次我还是会选择Yelp的冒牌货。

I I can eat my way through the dark clouds, but I'm gonna go I'm gonna again, with this I'm gonna go also with with a faker, for Yelp.

而且我觉得这个讨论很有意思。

And the conversation, I think, is interesting.

但戴夫又一次否决了那家股票代码为AI、长期拥有数十个基于AI的企业平台软件解决方案的公司。

But, again, Dave just shot down the company that has the ticker symbol AI and has dozens of enterprise platform, software solutions based on AI for for a long time.

只是它没有展现出增长势头。

It's just not showing growth.

在我看来，Yelp也存在同样的问题。

To me, that's Yelp has that problem.

Yelp精英曾经代表着某种价值。

Yelp is, Yelp Elite used to mean something.

现在你能在太多其他地方获取几乎所有事物的评价，甚至包括搜索引擎自身提供的AI评价。

Now there's so many other places you can get reviews for just about anything, even AI from the actual search engines themselves.

但更重要的是，这项业务的衰退已经持续超过十五年了。

But more importantly, this is a business that's been slowing for more than a decade and a half.

所以，在疫情之前，从六年前到2019年，收入增长率从近70%降至2019年的8%。

So, before the pandemic, revenue is growth from six years six years up to 2019, went from almost 70% growth to down to 8% growth in 2019.

疫情发生了。

The pandemic happened.

你知道，一切都跌入谷底。

Everything, you know, cratered.

然后在2021年和22年自然反弹回升，但我们仍处于同样的困境中。

Then it picked up, bounced naturally in 2021, '22, but we're in the same boat.

这将是连续第五年加速增长，而现在增速仅为中个位数。

This will be the fifth consecutive year of accelerating growth, and now it's a mid single digits.

我看不到Yelp能找到摆脱困境的办法。

I don't see Yelp, finding a way out of this.

所以我也选择了造假。

So I went faker as well.

有道理。

Fair enough.