股票作为FOMO保险

听众朋友们，大家好。

Hello, listeners.

我是安妮·博格尔，作家、博主，也是播客《接下来我该读什么？》的创始人。

This is Anne Bogel, author, blogger, and creator of the podcast What Should I Read Next?

自2016年起，我一直在帮助读者为他们的阅读生活增添更多快乐与喜悦。

Since 2016, I've been helping readers bring more joy and delight into their reading lives.

每周我都会与嘉宾畅聊书籍与阅读相关话题，并引导他们发现下一本值得阅读的好书。

Every week, I tag all things books and reading with a guest and guide them in discovering their next read.

他们会分享三本喜爱的书、一本不喜欢的书，以及近期在读的作品。

They share three books they love, one book they don't, and what they've been reading lately.

而我则会推荐三本他们接下来可能会喜欢的书。

And I recommend three titles they may enjoy reading next.

嘉宾们曾说我们的对话就像心理治疗，能解决困扰他们阅读生活多年甚至可能余生的问题。

Guests have said our conversations are like therapy, troubleshooting issues that have plagued their reading lives for years and possibly the rest of their lives as well.

当然，我们推荐的书籍总能契合当下需求——无论是引发深刻自省以推动人生改变，还是提供轻松读物来帮助逃避工作、学业等各方面的压力。

And, of course, recommending books that meet the moment, whether they are looking for deep introspection to spur or encourage a life change, or a frothy page turner to help them escape the stresses of work, school, everything.

作为读者，你会更了解自己，并且一定会带着满满的新书单和作者名单离开，自信地选择下一本读物。

You'll learn something about yourself as a reader, and you'll definitely walk away confident to choose your next read with a whole list of new books and authors to try.

所以每周二加入我们，一起探讨'我接下来该读什么？'

So join us each Tuesday for what should I read next?

现在就在你收听本播客的平台订阅我们，并访问我们的网站whatshouldireadnextpodcast.com了解更多信息。

Subscribe now wherever you're listening to this podcast, and visit our website, whatshouldireadnextpodcast.com to find out more.

你应该对每家公司都有一个预期，即你认为它能给你带来多少年化回报。

You should have an expectation for every company of what you think it can return to you on an annualized basis.

大多数情况下，我们只考虑股价。

And in most cases, we're just thinking of the stock price.

但如果是分红型公司，你可以从总回报的角度考虑。

But if it if it's a dividend company, you can think in terms of total return.

这帮助我理解如何随时间调整持仓规模相对于投资组合的其他部分。

That helps me understand how I might position over time in terms of size relative to the rest of the portfolio.

我是玛丽·朗，这位是阿西特·夏尔马，The Motley Fool的高级分析师，也是节目的常驻嘉宾。

I'm Mary Long, and that's Asit Sharma, a senior analyst here at The Motley Fool and a frequent guest on the show.

我的同事Ricky Moldy与Ossett进行了一次对话，探讨我们为何购买股票以及投资组合中不同公司所能发挥的多元作用。

My colleague, Ricky Moldy, caught up with Ossett for a conversation on why we buy stocks and the different purposes that companies in your portfolio can serve.

他们还讨论了投资者如何购买FOMO（错失恐惧症）保险、为何Asit喜欢将股票视为橡皮泥，以及为何投资与投机的维恩图重叠度可能远超你最初的想象。

They also discuss how investors can take out FOMO insurance policies, why Asit likes to think of stocks as PLAY DOH, and why the Venn diagram comparing investing with speculation has more overlap than you may initially think.

我们最近邀请了软银前首席财务官Alok Sama上周末做客节目，他写了一本书。

So, we recently had Alok Sama, who's the former chief financial officer of SoftBank, on the show last weekend, and he has a book.

书名叫《金钱陷阱》。

It's called The Money Trap.

其中有条观点我想作为我们对话的切入点。

And there was one idea that I wanted to use as a jumping off point for our conversation.

我之前提到过这个概念——虽然这个词通常不适合在播客里说，但为了节目效果，我暂且称之为'傻瓜保险'或'FOMO保险'。

I I brought it up before, but it's called, actually, it's a word I can't use on a podcast, but for the purposes of this show, I will call it idiot insurance or FOMO insurance.

你不想显得像个傻瓜，所以可能会少量买入某些资产。

You don't wanna look like an idiot, so maybe you buy a little bit of something.

以Alok为例，这就是他离职后仍持有软银股票的原因。

In in Alok's case, it's why he still owns stock in SoftBank after leaving the company.

这就是为什么有人可能只持有少量比特币的原因，如果你过去一年持有它，效果还不错。

It's the reason why someone might just own a little bit of Bitcoin, which if you've owned it for the past year, it's worked out okay for you.

但基本上，就是害怕自己看起来像个傻瓜，或者害怕在发生这些大规模社会变革时错过致富的机会。

But, basically, the fear of not wanting to look like an idiot or not wanting to miss out on getting rich while we have these large scale societal shifts going on.

以前是加密货币。

Previously, it was crypto.

现在是人工智能，而我作为投资者也面临这种困扰。

Now it's an artificial intelligence, and it's something that I personally struggle with as an investor.

当我看到像Palantir这样的公司股价上涨时，确实会感到FOMO（害怕错过）。

I I feel FOMO when I see something like Palantir's rise.

我之前做过相关专题。

I've done a segment on it.

我至今仍未能完全了解这家公司的方方面面。

I can't I I still don't know all the ins and outs of the company.

老实说，我还是没能完全理解它。

I'm I I still don't, you know, quite understand it, if we're being honest.

听着。

Look.

你你是选股方面的专家，但你会感到FOMO（错失恐惧症）吗？

You're you're a professional at this stock picking stuff, but do you feel FOMO?

当然会，Ricky。

Well, of course, Ricky.

我是说，错失恐惧症反映了我们心理中某种原始的本能。

I mean, fear of missing out represents something primordial in our psyches.

作为投资者，我们所有人迟早都会经历这种感受。

All of us are gonna experience it at some time or another if we're investors.

我们想要生存下去。

We want to survive.

不仅如此，我们还想要繁荣发展。

Not only that, we want to prosper.

这是刻在我们基因里的本能。

That's hardwired into our genetics.

所以

So

这个想法是说，在我附近的空间里，存在着能确保我生存和繁荣的东西，我需要关注它。

the idea that over in this space close to me, something is there that will ensure my survival, prosperity, and I need to look at it.

如果我不及时关注，就会开始害怕，产生那种错失恐惧感。

If I don't look at that soon enough, I'm gonna start to fear that feel that fear of missing out.

我觉得'傻瓜保险'这个概念真是引人入胜。

And I think this concept of idiot insurance is just fascinating.

这可以追溯到几个世纪前，那些出售企业的人不愿放弃全部权益。

It goes back a few centuries, think, where people who were selling businesses didn't want to give up all of it.

就像如果我卖给这个人之后，价格在我拿钱后突然暴涨怎么办。

Like what if I sell to this person and and it it just shoots up after I take my money.

这种保留权益——你用了'傻瓜保险'这么贴切的术语——确实是我们讨论市场如何激发情绪，并左右我们行为的绝佳切入点，无论结果好坏。

So that retained interest, which which you have such a great term for, idiot insurance, really is such a good jumping off point for our conversation about how markets can make us really bring our emotions to the fore and and can actually dictate some of our actions for better or for worse.

原始情绪可能是把双刃剑。

Primordial feelings can be a very good thing and very bad thing.

让我们从负面开始说起。

Let's start with the negative side.

我们现在看到市场上投资者的兴趣越来越浓厚。

And we're seeing this now as there's a lot more investor interest in the market.

这种情况在股票价格持续上涨时总会发生。

That happens anytime you see a sustained rise in equity prices.

就像我们本周早些时候讨论过的大银行盈利情况所显示的那样。

We're seeing it with the big bank earnings we've talked about earlier this week.

但什么时候错失恐惧症对投资者来说是负面的呢？

But when is the fear of missing out a negative for investors?

Ricky，当这种情绪冲击我们而我们未能意识到这主要是本能反应，是一种情绪化的恐惧时，FOMO的破坏力就达到了顶峰。

Ricky, when it is hitting us and we fail to recognize that this is primarily something instinctual, it's an emotional reaction, it's a fear, that's when FOMO is most powerful and the most negative that it can be.

就是当我们的大脑无法清晰表达现状，而我们又不经思考就行动的时候。

It's when our brains don't articulate what's going on, and we act without thinking.

所以我看到一只股票价格上涨。

So I see a stock price going up.

我看到一家被炒作的生意。

I see a business that's being hyped.

我不知道这是稳赚不赔还是下一个金钱陷阱，但我还是打算买一些，因为我害怕如果我不行动，就会错过什么大事。

I don't know if it's a sure thing or the next money trap, but I'm just gonna buy some because I have this fear that if I don't act, I will miss out on something big.

也许你对上一个问题翻白眼了——什么时候FOMO会变成坏事？

And maybe if you rolled your eyes at the previous question, when is FOMO a bad thing?

因为我想把话题引到这个问题上。

It's because I wanna bring it to this question.

我们经常听到关于它的负面说法。

We often hear about it in negative terms.

这对投资者来说具有破坏性。

It's something that's destructive for investors.

你在上涨途中追逐某样东西，然后它就崩盘了。

You're chasing something on the way up, and then it collapses.

但FOMO有没有可能是件好事呢？

But can FOMO ever be a positive?

我们能否将这种原始本能转化为积极力量？

Can we make this primordial instinct a positive?

或者说，如果它是消极的，你如何将FOMO转化为积极因素？

Or if it is a negative, how do you make FOMO into something positive?

其实，FOMO可以非常积极。

Well, FOMO can be very positive.

毕竟，它是

After all, it's

一个信号。

a signal.

它向我们表明某只证券开始起飞，而我们又本能地被它吸引。

It it's showing us that a security is starting to take off, and we have this, again, instinctual pull towards it.

如果你能理性对待这种冲动，保持一定距离观察它，并清晰地表达出来，或许就能抓住机会。

If you can treat that as something rational, if you can look at it from one remove, articulate it to yourself, then you may have some opportunity here.

记住，市场不断带来众多机会，而且存在许多炒作周期。

Remember, the market is constantly introducing many opportunities, and and there are many hype cycles.

如果你投资的时间足够长，你会遇到不止一次这样的机会。

If you invest for long enough, you'll see more than one.

所以应对错失恐惧的一种方法是告诉自己：好吧，这里发生的事情可能值得关注，但我不必立即采取行动。

So this is one way to deal with that fear of missing out is to articulate to yourself, okay, there's something going on here that I probably should pay attention to, but I don't have to act on it.

基于这个思路，我认为放慢脚步反而能加速前进，这是将错失恐惧转化为积极因素的一种方式。

And in that vein, I say slowing down to speed up can be a way that you can turn FOMO into something positive.

或许你可以坐下来花一小时时间，而不是急着跟风买入大家都在追捧的东西，先做些研究。

Maybe you sit down and take an hour out of your your day instead of just rushing to to buy something that everyone is very excited about and do a little bit of research.

在这个过程中，你可能会发现一些迹象：我应该进一步研究、找人聊聊、更专注地跟进，或者干脆避开这个。

In doing that, you might get a few indications that I should research this further or talk to some people or or maybe pursue this in a more dedicated fashion, or I should just avoid this.

这个看起来不太靠谱。

This looks shaky.

这个感觉虚情假意。

This looks smarmy.

比如，我完全没必要在这上面浪费时间。

Like, I don't need to waste any more time with this.

第三，在我向自己解释清楚状况和感受后，我会通过建立所谓的‘花生壳仓位’来应对这种情绪。

Thirdly, I, you know, myself deal with this after I have explained to myself what's going on, what I'm feeling by buying what I call peanut shells positions.

有些人把小额投资比作花生。

So some people think of something small as being peanuts.

而我有时会考虑更小的投资。

I think even smaller sometimes.

因此我会买入那些自己并不完全了解的公司股票。

So I would buy companies where I don't understand exactly what's going on.

经过初步研究后，瑞奇，我会建立非常小的仓位。

After doing a little bit of research, Ricky, I'll take a very small position.

信不信由你，这在一定程度上缓解了我对错失机会的恐惧。

And that, believe it or not, assuages some of my own fear of missing out.

因为当你仓位很小时，它就无法对你造成实质伤害。

Because then if you have a small position, you can't you can't hurt me.

你不会

You're not

不会夺走我退休后的饭碗，如果你愿意这么理解的话。

gonna take away my meals in retirement, if you will.

而且你会觉得自己参与其中了。

And you feel you've participated.

你不会感觉自己被排除在群体之外。

You don't feel like you're not part of the crowd.

随大流也许算不上美德，但作为投资者需要平衡，有时至少了解群体动向很重要。

Now running with the crowd is is maybe not a virtue, but in the balance that you need as an investor, sometimes it's important to to at least have a beat on what the crowd is doing.

那我们回到FOMO保险这个概念上。

So let's let's bring it back to the idea of FOMO insurance then.

应对方法之一就是：当你有点害怕错过这些激动人心的新技术时，可以做个小额的投机性押注。

One way of dealing with it, you're a little afraid of missing out on these exciting new technologies, so you make a smaller speculative bet.

要知道，奥西，现在正是放飞你个性旗帜的时候。

You know, this is the time, Ossie, to let your freak flag fly.

我举个自己的例子，就是CRISPR基因编辑技术。

I'll give you one that I have, and that's with CRISPR.

我研究过CRISPR技术。

I have looked into CRISPR.

我真的很钦佩它。

I really admire it.

我对利用基因编辑彻底治愈多种疾病的前景持乐观态度。

I'm optimistic about the idea of using gene editing to completely cure a lot of maladies.

比如CRISPR技术已经能治愈镰状细胞贫血，这简直不可思议。

I mean, for example, CRISPR technology just has has a cure for sickle cell, which is incredible.

我认为媒体对他们运用这项技术的报道甚至还不够充分。

I think it's under undercovered even what they're doing with this technology.

我持有CRISPR公司的股票，但也曾因投资其他使用CRISPR技术的生物科技公司而亏损。

I own the stock in CRISPR, and I've also lost money on other biotechs that use CRISPR technology.

这个领域会有赢家也有输家，而我没有生物学学位。

There's gonna be winners and losers, and I don't have a bi biology degree.

尽管我相信这个总体趋势，但技术上我并非专家。

It's something that I am not a technical expert in even though I believe in the general trend.

你持有任何FOMO保险保单吗？

Do you have any FOMO insurance policies that you own?

我有好几份呢，Ricky。

I've got a number of them, Ricky.

我有一种叫做七年股票的东西。

I have this thing called, a seven year stock.

我们总说要持有一只股票五年。

So we always talk about holding a stock for five years.

但有些公司目前几乎没有任何收入，它们处于这些新兴行业——通常是高科技领域——如果企业能熬过头几年并获得所需资金，就有潜力进入一个正在成形的市场。

But there are some companies which aren't really generating much revenue at all, but they're in these incipient industries, often high-tech, where if the business can survive the first couple of years and gets the capital it needs, it has a market in which it can can potentially expand into, and that market itself is starting to come together.

所以这些都是投机性的。

So these are speculations.

我是说，这些都是小赌注，比如空中出租车、量子计算、服务器能源管理、半导体知识产权之类的领域。

I mean, these are small bets, if you will, on things like air taxis, quantum computing, server energy management, semiconductor intellectual property, and the like.

所以我某种程度上相信持有这类保险策略，但对我来说还有另一层意义。

So I sort of believe in having these insurance policies, but there's another element to it for me as well.

这是一次学习经历。

It's a learning experience.

这些是我认为未来可能会发展的行业，所以我想现在就参与学习并了解它们。

These are industries that I think may grow in the future, so I wanna get in on the learning piece now and be aware of them.

所以这不只是关于FOMO（害怕错过）。

So it's not just about the the FOMO.

这是关于观察我认为可能会扩展并可能对我有价值的世界的一部分。

It it's about looking at a part of the world that I think might expand and might hold some value for me.

这是...

It's it's a

两者兼而有之。

bit of both.

我想展开更广泛的讨论。

I wanna get to a broader discussion.

我们已经讨论过这些FOMO保险策略了，但我认为有一种更无聊的购买方式，那就是通过普通的指数基金。

We've done these FOMO insurance policies, but I I think there's a way of buying one that's much more boring, and that is with plain vanilla index funds.

如果你在过去五到十年间持有标准普尔500指数基金，你个人已经从像英伟达这样的公司惊人的崛起中获益。

If you owned a Standard and Poor's 500 index fund over the past five to ten years, you've benefited personally from the incredible rise of a company like like Nvidia.

虽然我们经常讨论选股的好处，你可以构建自己的一篮子优质公司组合，但你自己是否也会在401k之外的个人资金中使用指数基金呢？

And while we often talk about the benefits of stock picking where you can you can create your own collection of of hopefully wonderful companies, do you personally use index funds for for your own money even outside of, you know, your employer's four zero one k?

当然。

Sure.

我会。

I do.

只有少数几只。

Just a few.

我持有少量几只ETF，我认为它们对许多投资者来说都是不错的选择。

I have a handful of ETFs that I buy, and I think they are good for many investors.

长期来看，我正努力将ETF持仓比例提升至投资组合的30%左右。

I would say, like, long term, I'm trying to build up my, ETF holdings to be about 30% of my portfolio.

所以我现在的关注度比以往要高一些。

So I'm focusing on them a little more than I used to.

我认为我正试图从根本上用更理性的方式持有股票。

And then I think I'm trying to basically use more reason for owning stocks.

我知道这听起来可能过于简单，但作为投资者，这是你必须持续做的事，因为我用指数基金来投资那些我不想费心研究的领域。

And I know that sounds almost simplistic, but I think it's a constant thing you have to do as an investor, because I I use index funds especially for areas that I don't wanna wanna think about.

比如像高收益债券这类产品。

So for something like like high yield bonds.

我持有的一个基金是USHY，由iShares管理。

So there's there's one I own, it's it's USHY, it's it's done by iShares.

该基金过去12个月的收益率略低于7%。

The fund has a trailing twelve month yield of a little less than 7%.

本质上，我与这个指数基金达成的协议是：它能给我的回报上限是固定的。

So essentially, the deal you may the deal I've made with this index fund is that I have a pretty capped return on what it will ever return me.

它不会像那些极具创新力的公司那样带来惊人回报。

It's not going to do something like an an incredibly innovative company.

这是债券。

This is this is debt.

但我是从这个角度来考虑的。

But I think of it in terms of this reason.

我把它们想象成派出的小士兵，它们的任务就是永远为我收集一点点钱。

I have these little soldiers that I've now sent out, and their job is to collect a little bit of money for me forever.

我做的权衡是回报有限，但让这些士兵去做我不想做的工作——也就是购买债券。

The trade off I'm making is that I have a capped return, and I'm letting those soldiers do the work that I don't wanna do, which is buy bonds.

我不想分析债务证券。

I don't wanna analyze debt securities.

我希望别人来处理这些，并愿意支付一点管理费作为代价。

I want someone else to do that, and I'm willing to pay a little bit in terms of of a management fee.

你觉得这类指数基金就像是...你懂的，直接帮我搞定那些根本不想操心的事吗？

Do you think of index funds like that as as, you know, just go take care of something that I don't even wanna think about?

我想是的。

I think so.

甚至可能我会把它看作是我想要处理，但自知能力范围之外的事情。

And and maybe even I think about it as things that I want to take care of, but I believe are just beyond my capabilities.

我给你举个例子。

I'll give you an example.

我经常建议那些对英伟达、AMD和博通这类公司感兴趣的投资者购买SOXX。

I often advocate for investors who are interested in companies like Nvidia and AMD and Broadcom to buy the SOXX.

这是一种指数基金。

This is an index fund.

这是一只ETF，持仓不多，大约30家领先的半导体公司。

It's an ETF which has not a lot, about 30 positions of leading semiconductor companies.

尽管我深入研究这个领域，Ricky，但你知道，世界变化的速度快得让人难以跟上。

As much as I study this space, Ricky, like, you know, the world changes almost more quickly than you can keep up with it.

对我来说，派出这些‘小士兵’（如果你愿意这么称呼）并确保不错过机会、获得回报的好方法是什么？因为你知道，我对那些我认为未来可能因其技术和市场地位而增值的公司判断也可能大错特错。

And what's a great way for me to send out little, soldiers, if you will, and make sure that I don't miss out and I reap the return because, you know, I can be wrong as as many companies as I think may appreciate in the future because of their technology in the markets, yeah, I could be way off.

所以我让这个任务变得简单一点的方法就是投资这只ETF。

So one way that I make that task a little easier is to invest in this ETF.

我还有几只其他ETF，我想很多听众也持有类似的基金，它们要么追踪大盘，要么跟踪市场中的几个主题，正是出于这个原因。

And I have a few others, I think, as as many of those listening do that try to track the broader market or or a few themes in the market for that very reason.

这就是除了其他投资外还购买ETF的理由。

So that's the reasoning for for buying an ETF in addition to to more.

你知道，原因是我在存钱，希望退休时能有更多积蓄。

You know, the reason is I'm I'm putting some money away so I can have even more when I retire, hopefully.

那我们回到股票话题吧，毕竟我们这是在为Motley Fool做节目。

Let's go back to stocks then because we're we're doing something for the Motley Fool here.

为什么要买股票？

Why buy a stock?

你持有几十家不同公司股票的理由是什么？

What's your reason for owning dozens and dozens of individual companies?

Ricky，我认为我持有的这些公司大多会保持可塑性，少数会成为黏土动画或定格动画那样的存在。

Well, you know, Ricky, I think many of these companies that I own are gonna remain PLAY DOH, and a few of them are gonna become claymation or stop motion films.

当然，我这里指的是帕累托原则，愚人投资者都懂这个。

And so, of course, I'm referring to the Pareto principle here, which is something that foolish investors know about.

这个数学命题说明：假设你持有100支股票，可能其中不到20支会贡献80%以上的收益。

It's the math behind the proposition that if you own, let's say, a 100 stocks, maybe 20 or fewer will drive 80% or more of your returns.

所以这有点像一种准工程学原理。

So this is sort of an quasi engineering principle.

它在许多不同行业都有应用，但真正依赖的是两件事。

It's used in a lot of different industries, but it really relies on two things.

第一，投入和产出是半随机的。

One, that inputs and outputs are semi random.

你可以是个消息灵通的高效投资者，但你无法控制所投资企业或经营这些企业的人的动向。

You can be a really efficiently informed investor, but you can't control what happens with the businesses you buy or the people who run those businesses.

所以它依赖这一点。

So it relies on that.

还有就是分散投资的原理。

And also just the principle of diversification.

如果你把赌注集中在一两个想法上而判断错误，你的资本就会归零。

If you concentrate your bets on one or two ideas and you're wrong, your capital goes to zero.

如果能分散这些投资，你就有更大机会既保住本金，又能从概率上获得更高的回报。

If you can spread those bets out, you have a better chance, one, to maintain your capital, but, two, return probabilistically, that payoff should increase.

所以我喜欢这个原则，不过——说到这里我得承认，我对黄色罐子里的蓝色橡皮泥确实有种怀旧情结——但我更希望，或者说我渴望能在投资生涯结束前参与创造出一两只了不起的狐狸先生。

So I like that principle, but and, you know, I should say here, I do have a nostalgia for blue Play Doh in a yellow can, but I wanna think or I'd love to think that I was part of the creation of a fantastic mister Fox, one or two of those before my investing career is over.

当然，我这里指的是黏土动画——用黏土人偶制作的电影——需要耗费大量时间才能完成。

And, of course, what I'm referring to here is the fact that claymation, films that are made out of clay figures, take a long time to make.

你得先移动一小块黏土，然后拍摄一帧画面。

You have to move a little bit of clay, and then you take one frame of the film.

不断重复这个过程。

You keep doing this process.

这就像收购一家公司，持有它五年、七年、十年、十五年或二十年，在了解业务的过程中持续加仓，参与这场缓慢而伟大的创造。

So this is akin to buying a company, holding it for five or seven or ten or fifteen or twenty years, buying more on the way up as you learn about that business, and participating in this slow act of making something great.

这是个学习的过程。

There's a learning process.

其中蕴含着探索的航程，我渴望参与其中，同时增加财富

There's a voyage of discovery in that that I wanna participate in and to increase my wealth

一路前行。

along the way.

而且你是在按照自己的规则玩游戏。

And you're also playing the game on on your terms.

你可以自主决定持有期限。

You're deciding your own holding period.

你可以自主选择持有的公司，这让作为个人投资者的你相比机构投资者拥有诸多优势——虽然他们资源更丰富、资金更雄厚，但行为准则的限制也更多。

You're deciding the companies you own, and this gives you, as an individual investor, a lot of advantages over institutional folks who have, you know, greater resources, probably greater wealth, but also a lot more parameters for how they're allowed to behave.

既然我们继续讨论理性这个话题，我想提出一个观点请你评判——这也是我做这期节目的初衷之一。

As we as we stay on this theme of reason, I I wanted to run I one of the reasons I wanted to do this show is is sort of run this take by you.

因为我一直在改变对股票作为公司所有权的看法。

Because I've I've been changing how I think about stocks as ownership in a company.

这听起来可能有点激进，虽然股票确实代表对公司利润的索取权，但我开始更倾向于把这些公司视为财富管理者。

And this may sound a little little radical, but, you know, you have a claim to the profits of a company, but I'm starting to think of these companies almost more as as wealth managers.

所以我在思考这是否是个不同的问题：

So I'm wondering if this is a different question.

我是想拥有这家公司，还是想让这家公司在未来三到五年替我打理资金？

Do I wanna own this company versus do I want this company to take care of my money for three to five years?

你认为这些是不同的疑问、相同的问题，还是说在这里区分它们甚至有意义吗？

Do you think those are different questions, the same question, or is it even meaningful to make a difference here?

我认为它们是不同的问题。

I think they're different questions.

‘我想拥有这家公司吗’是你提出的第一个观点。

Do I want to own this company is sort of the first point you you laid out.

‘我想要未来利润的索取权吗’？

Do I wanna claim on the future profits?

‘我希望这家公司在未来三到五年里打理我的资金吗’？

Do I want this company to take care of my money for three to five years?

我认为这是个不同的问题。

I think it's a different question.

这超越了股价走势的范畴，它假设我正在将资金托付给那些要做决策、管理资本、利用资产、偿还负债、建立收入流并承担相应支出的人。

It goes beyond what the stock price is gonna do, and it it posits that I'm entrusting my money to people who are gonna make decisions, who are gonna manage capital, use the assets, pay off the liabilities, get a revenue stream going, have some expenses underneath that.

当你从这个角度思考时，我认为这是一种更为复杂的信任机制。

It's a much more complex trust mechanism, I think, when you start thinking in those terms.

我认为这是个哲学问题，Ricky。

And I think it's a philosophical question, Ricky.

所以那些损失厌恶型或追求年金型投资者，他或她会以受托管理的角度思考。

So the loss averse or annuity seeking investor, he or she thinks in terms of stewardship.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以我把钱交给你。

So I'm giving you my money.

你要帮我保值。

You're gonna preserve it.

或许还能给我分红。

Maybe give me a dividend.

真正投机型的投资者会以风险投资的角度思考。

The really speculative investor thinks in terms of venture funding.

比如，我给你一些风险资本，我期待巨额回报，同时愿意承受期间的波动。

Like, I'm gonna give you some risk capital, and I want that payoff to be big, and I'm willing to take some volatility in the meantime.

大多数投资者在将资金交给另一家公司时，都处于这两个极端之间。

Most investors fall in between these two extremes when we think of handing over our money to another company.

我们可以继续探讨这个相当引人入胜的问题，但我知道你还有其他话题要谈。

So we could stick on this pretty fascinating question for the rest of the way, but I know you've got other things to talk about.

我们可以再稍微讨论一下，因为好吧。

We could stay on it for a little bit because Alright.

就这么办吧。

Let's do that.

它确实改变了我的思维方式。

It it has it has changed how how I think about things.

当我们想到财富管理时，往往联想到极其保守的方式。

And when we think of a wealth manager, we often do think of something incredibly conservative.

但现实情况是，我确实持有一些Meta的股票。

But realistically so I own I own some shares of Meta.

我其实并不算是这家公司的所有者。

I'm not really the owner of the company.

马克·扎克伯格才是。

Mark Zuckerberg is.

而我实际做的是说，嘿，小扎。

And what I've done instead is said, you know, here here, Zuck.

这是我的一部分薪水。

Here's some of my here's some of my paycheck.

我想看看在你持有超级投票权股份的情况下，未来几年你能如何打理它。

I wanna see what you can do to take care of it for the next number of years while you own the supervoting shares of what's going on.

我持有一家公司，这周早些时候我提到过，嘉信理财。

I own a company, and I talked about it earlier this week, Charles Schwab.

对我来说这才是更基础的东西。

That to me is something that's more foundational.

你明白吗？

You know?

我把钱交给你，并不是因为我认为自己是你那10万亿美元资产的所有者，而是我认为等我退休时你还会存在——至少我希望如此。

I'm giving you my money, not because that I think I'm the owner of the 10,000,000,000,000 in assets that you have, but I think you're gonna be around when I'm retire when I retire, or at least I hope you are.

如果像嘉信理财这样的机构不复存在，将会发生非常糟糕的事情。

There's really bad things that are gonna happen if something like Charles Schwab is is not around.

而对于像火箭实验室这样的公司，你知道的，他们正在把火箭送入太空。

And then for something like Rocket Lab, you know, they're they're sending rockets into space.

他们比杰夫·贝索斯的公司更早进入轨道，尽管蓝色起源拥有所有巨大的资源。

They got to orbit before Jeff Bezos' company did with all of the tremendous resource that Blue Origin has.

当然火箭实验室确实有些领先优势，但对我来说，这更像是，嘿。

Now granted Rocket Lab has a little bit of a lead, but for me, that's more of a, you know, hey.

给你五分钱。

Here's a nickel.

让我们看看你能用它做些什么。

Let's see what you can do with it.

所以尽管我对这些管理者有不同的考量，你觉得我真正需要多少位管理者呢？

So even though I've got my different reasons for these managers, how many managers do you think I really need?

要知道，如果你是寻求资产托管的人，你只需要几位可靠的管理者。

You know, if you're the person who's looking for stewardship, you just need a few solid managers.

如果投资者的目标是增加个人财富，那么他们需要更多专业经理人的协助。

If an investor is in the business of increasing his or her wealth, that investor, they need many more specialist managers.

再者，我们大多数人都会处于这个区间内。

And, again, most of us are gonna fall within this spectrum.

Ricky，我认为你需要两者兼顾，而且你列举的例子都相当合理。

Ricky, I think you need a little bit of both, and I think the examples you laid out are are pretty sound.

这证明你对资本进行了审慎分配。

It's evidence of judicious allocation of your capital.

背后有着深思熟虑的决策过程。

There's a nice thought process behind it.

这让我想起了查尔斯国王的投资组合。

It reminds me of King Charles' portfolio.

明白吗？

You know?

查尔斯国王拥有康沃尔公领地。

King Charles owns the Duchy of Cornwall.

这是一个价值15亿美元的业务，但其中包含了各种各样的业务类型。

It's a $1,500,000,000 business, but it nestled in that are all kinds of businesses.

有农田。

There's farmland.

有商业地产。

There's commercial real estate.

还有运营中的企业。

There are operating businesses.

所以如果你观察皇室家族如何构建他们的财富，会发现这是一种边际风险较低的结构。

So if you look at how the royal family has structured their wealth, it is something that has, marginal risk.

它拥有坚实的核心。

It's got a solid core.

当然，查尔斯国王需要外出履行国王职责，所以他有人专门为他管理财富。

And they, of course I mean, king Charles is is going out and around being king, so he has people managing his wealth for him.

但你的方式让我想起了这种策略。

But yours reminds me of of that sort of approach.

为了巩固我的推理逻辑，目前我有四点考量，你可以根据需要增减。

So the and to sort of solidify the reasoning I've been using, I I have four right now, and you can add to them if you like or you can subtract even.

第一点是，我作为财富管理者与你同行，与那些切身投入的业主们并肩。

One is that I'm along for the ride with you as a wealth manager with owners who have skin in the game.

这让我联想到许多小型上市公司的情况。

I think of that with a lot of small cap companies.

第二点是，我认为你的公司不会在我退休时倒闭。

The second is that I don't think your firm is gonna shut down when I retire.

这让我想到像家得宝这样的企业。

I think about that with a company like Home Depot.

未来很长一段时间里，我都会遇到家居装修方面的问题。

I'm gonna have questions about home improvement for a long time.

即便是Spotify这样的平台，包括我在内的许多用户，考虑到它对我的了解程度，我不认为自己会转投其他平台。

Even Spotify, among a lot of people, myself included, I don't see myself ditching Spotify for another platform when it knows so much about me.

我使用它的时间越久，就越离不开它。

The longer I stay with it, the longer I stay with it.

第三点与此相关，就是你们在全球范围内运营。

The third one, which is related, is that you operate the world.

查尔斯·施瓦布之前还提到过像Prologis这样的公司，他们拥有亚马逊使用的许多仓库。

Charles Schwab previously mentioned also a company like Prologis, which owns a lot of the warehouses that Amazon uses.

世界需要这家公司来运作。

The world needs this company to operate.

然后第四点是——来，给你五分钱。

And then the fourth one is here's a here's a nickel.

看看你能用它做什么。

Let's see what you can do with it.

这就是你们的CRISPRs、Rocket Labs这类公司。

That's your CRISPRs, your Rocket Labs, that sort of thing.

你有什么要补充的吗？

Anything you'd add here?

对于我持有的这些股权，或者更准确地说，对于我一直在使用的财富管理经理们，这些推理问题中还有什么需要补充的吗？

Anything belong in those reasoning reasoning questions for these ownership stakes I have, but really the wealth managers I've been using for my money?

是啊。

Yeah.

这个比喻相当完整了。

This is a pretty complete metaphor.

可能唯一要补充的是：给你两毛五。

Maybe the only one I'd add is here's a quarter.

继续做你正在做的事。

Keep doing what you're doing.

所以想想那些可能不太引人注目的公司。

So think of companies that may fly a little bit under the radar.

它们是高投资资本回报率的公司。

They're high return on invested capital companies.

它们不会引起太多正面或负面的关注。

They don't make a lot of noise one way or another.

所以它们介于那些搭便车的风投公司，和那些在你退休时不会倒闭的公司（如家得宝）之间。

So they're sort of between that along for the ride, wind mark companies and the ones that aren't gonna shut down when you when you retire like the Home Depots.

它们可能是中型股公司，业务和股价在多数情况下都有着10%至15%年化回报的稳健记录。

They may be mid cap companies with just a solid track record of of 10 to 15% annualized returns in their business and, therefore, their stock price in many cases.

除此之外，我很认同这个观点。

But other than that, I like it.

那么在你作为分析师的工作中，或是当你为自己的个人投资组合买入股票时，你会运用哪些推理问题来决定是否买入，或是

And then is in your job as an analyst or when you're putting money into into a stock for your own personal portfolio, what sort of reasoning questions are you using to decide whether you're buying it or what kind

采取何种配置比例？

of allocation you're taking?

对。

Yeah.

我通常会问几个简单的问题：第一，这笔交易会如何影响我投资组合的现有结构？

So just a couple of simple questions that I typically ask is, number one, how is this purchase affecting the current composition of my portfolio?

我喜欢把我的持仓看作一个有机的整体。

So I like to think of my holdings as this, holistic whole.

实际上我知道，我的持仓之间可能存在远高于合理水平的关联性。

I know in reality, I probably have positions that are way more correlated than they should be.

我存在持仓集中、认知盲区以及无法预见的风险。

I've got concentrations, blind spots, risks I don't foresee.

但总的来说，我想知道如果我在组合里增持麦当劳，这对其他持仓意味着什么？

But in general, I wanna know if I'm adding McDonald's to my portfolio, what does it say about the rest of my portfolio?

它能带来什么贡献？

What's its contribution?

我钟爱分红型公司。

I love dividend companies.

我也青睐成长型公司、科技企业和消费品公司。

I love growth companies, tech companies, consumer goods.

这是第一个考量点。

So that's one question.

其次是我对可能结果的预判如何？

And then what's my guess regarding the probable outcome?

你应该在投资前明确最终目标。

You should have an end goal in mind.

而且我认为，Ricky，你之前提到过这一点。

And I think, Ricky, you spoke to this earlier.

就你持有的镍矿股票而言，你应该对每家公司都有一个预期回报率的年度评估标准。

You with your nickel stocks, you should have an expectation for every company of what you think it can return to you on an annualized basis.

在大多数情况下，我们只考虑股价因素。

And in most cases, we're just thinking of the stock price.

但如果是派息公司，你可以从总回报的角度来考量。

But if it if it's a dividend company, you can think in terms of total return.

这有助于我理解如何根据投资组合其他部分的比重来调整仓位。

That helps me understand how I might position over time in terms of size relative to the rest of the portfolio.

我的一些重大投资失误并不是因为买入的公司。

And some of my larger investing mistakes have not been buying companies.

实际上是在卖出决策上栽了跟头。

It's actually been selling ones.

不过我敢说你有时也会手痒想操作吧。

I'm sure you sometimes feel the itch, though.

你准备要平仓了。

You're ready to get out of a position.

无论出于何种原因，这种感觉都不太好，比如在最好的情况下，它已经占你投资组合比例过高了。

It doesn't feel good for whatever reason, whether it's it's, you know, the good scenario where it's grown to be too much of your portfolio.

也许你对公司未来的发展方向产生了当初买入时没有的疑虑。

Maybe you have questions about the future direction of the company that you didn't originally have when you when you bought it in the first place.

那么当你开始有这种冲动时，你会用哪些理由来质疑自己呢，奥西特？

So what reasoning questions do you use when you start feeling that itch, Ossit?

说实话，里基，我已经改变了策略，

Honestly, Ricky, I've changed my strategy,

在过去的几年里。

over the last several years.

我现在建仓规模都很小，而且通常不再卖出。

I start my position sizes small, and I typically don't sell anymore.

我曾与一些非常聪明的'傻瓜'进行过精彩的对话，包括我们Motley Fool的量化投资者团队，还有我们的CEO汤姆·加德纳，他们向我展示了赢家与输家的数学原理。

I've had some wonderful conversations with some really smart fools, our quant investors at the Motley Fool and some others, our CEO, Tom Gardner as well, who have demonstrated to me the the math of winners versus losers.

一个亏损项目在你的投资组合中其实无关紧要，因为理论上只要是小仓位，如果你没有过度集中于某只股票，长期来看即使归零对整体收益的数学影响也不大——前提是你持有足够多的赢家。

A a loser on your portfolio because it's, you know, a small position theoretically, if you haven't over indexed on a on a certain name, going to zero really doesn't matter much mathematically in the long term if you've got your fair share of winners.

所以我只是把公司留在我的个人记分卡上。

So I just keep companies on my personal scorecard.

我从它们身上学习。

I learn from them.

我研究自己的错误，实际上并不卖出。

I study my mistakes, and I actually don't sell.

过去我有时卖出后，反而看到那些岌岌可危的公司又东山再起。

Sometimes I've sold in the past only to see a company that was on the ropes down for the count have a resurgence.

事实上，即便你像我这样全职投入这个工作，，当你持有25甚至30家公司时，也不可能对每家都做到面面俱到的跟踪。

And in truth, we can't if you have a portfolio of even 25 or 30 companies, you can't follow each one individually that closely, even if you're in the business of doing this full time as I am.

这就是，'s my current strategy, and it's it's actually working out for me, think.

So that's my current strategy, and it's it's actually working out for me, think.

永不卖出。

Never sell.

在我们结束前，我们已经用英语思维进行了推理，这部分动用了你大脑中语言处理区域。

As we end, we've done the reasoning sort of the the English let's use the the English class side of your brain.

现在我们要转向统计和概率领域，因为很多统计思维者喜欢用期望值来做决策。

We're gonna use go now to sort of the statistics, the probability stuff, because a lot of statistically minded people like to use expected value for the decisions.

以扑克为例，如果你手上有对子，在翻牌圈三张公共牌发出时，你约有八分之一的机会凑成三条。

So the poker example is that if you have a pair of cards, you're gonna hit a third card in your pair or trips on the flop when three cards arrive about one in every eight times.

数字有点多，但本质上就是问：在玩扑克时，我的手牌如何能变得更好？

That's a lot of numbers, but basically you're like, how can my hand improve if you're playing a game of poker?

买股票时也有类似的策略方法。

There's ways of doing that when you're buying stocks.

我试着简化这个问题：我认为有相当的概率——可能是五五开——你会扭转局面。

I've tried to simplify this, which is, you know, I think there's a decent chance you'll turn it around, maybe fifty fifty.

或者说我认为有极大可能——比如80%到90%——这支股票在我几十年后退休时会更值钱，即使它不会每五到十年就翻倍。

Or I think that there's a very good chance, let's say 80 to 90%, that this stock will be worth more when I retire in a few decades, even if it's not just, you know, doubling every five to ten years.

那么如何

So how do

你如何看待股票投资中的期望值问题？

you think about expected value in terms of in terms of investing in stock purchases?

好吧，我们先从你的例子说起，Ricky。

Well, let's take your examples first, Ricky.

你提出的这些启发式问题表明——如果我们沿用扑克的比喻——你在对庄家时具有优势。

These are heuristic questions that you are asking which demonstrate, if we stick with the poker analogy, your edge on the house.

所以你是个相当有经验的投资者。

So you're a reasonably experienced investor.

你具备分析公司的能力。

You have the ability to analyze companies.

也许你的成功率能达到60%、70%。

Maybe your success rate is 60%, 70.

我不确定具体数字，但能做到这样已经很棒了。

I don't know, which would be great.

对吧？

Right?