经济情绪转好

零售业的日子不好过。本周的Motley Full Money广播节目现在开始。

It's tough to be a retailer. This week's Motley Full Money Radio Show starts now.

每个人都需要钱。这就是为什么它叫钱。来自

Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money. From

这里是Motley Fool全球总部，您正在收听的是Motley Fool Money广播节目。我是Ricky Baldy。今天通过网络加入我们的有Motley Fool高级分析师Asit Sharma和David Meyer。两位Fool成员，很高兴你们能来。

Fool global headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money. It's the Motley Fool Money radio show. I'm Ricky Baldy. Joining me on the Internet today, it's Motley Fool senior analysts, Asit Sharma and David Meyer. Fools, great to have you both here.

嘿，Ricky。

Hey, Ricky.

很高兴来到这里，谢谢。

It's great to be here. Thank you.

我们准备了零售业动态回顾、网络安全领军企业的增速放缓，但让我们先从宏观大局说起。特朗普总统已将对欧盟50%的报复性关税暂停至7月9日。最新调查显示消费者信心指数回升，这是五个月来首次出现乐观信号。Asit，请解读这些经济信号。

We've got a retail rundown, a slowdown for a leader in cybersecurity, but let us start with the big macro. President Donald Trump has paused 50% retaliatory tariffs on the European Union until July 9. Consumer sentiment has rebounded in the latest survey, the first note of optimism in five months. Asit, makes sense of the tea leaves. What are

你在宏观经济中看到了什么？确实如你所说，Ricky。会议委员会数据显示，本月他们的消费者信心指数上升了约12个百分点，达到98。这相当乐观。我该如何解读？

you seeing in the big macro? Well, you're right, Ricky. The conference board showed that consumer confidence via their index increased about 12 percentage points to a reading of 98 this month. That's pretty confident. What do I read into this?

正如你指出的，消费者信心指数已连续五个月下滑。所以我认为消费者正期待任何能让他们恢复消费的信号。永远不要低估美国消费者的乐观精神——这是我多年从业经验得出的结论。那么除此之外我还关注什么呢？

Well, you know, as you also pointed out, we've had five straight months of declining consumer confidence. So I think consumers are ready for a sign, any sign that they can go out and spend again. Don't ever underestimate the optimism of The US consumer. That's what I've learned in many years of doing this gig. Now what am I looking at beyond that?

说实话，考虑到我们所处时代的波动性和不确定性，这种信心可能有些脆弱。我正关注日本的情况——其长期债券市场的波动或许能给世界其他国家上一课。众所周知，日本的未偿债务与年度GDP之比高得惊人，我们美国也是如此。

Because truth be told, maybe that confidence is a little fragile, given the fluctuating and volatile times we live in. I'm looking over at Japan. Some stirrings in the long term bond market there may have a lesson for the rest of the world. Japan notoriously has a very high ratio of outstanding debt to its annual GDP, its gross domestic output. We do too.

虽然没日本那么严重，但他们正面临国债需求下降的问题，这意味着日本央行不得不提高利率，政府也需要加息来吸引买家。如果我们不整顿好美国的财政状况，不久的将来我们很可能面临同样处境。随着众议院通过的那些巨额支出法案进入参议院审议，今年人们对债务的担忧只会加剧。这可能会成为我们夏季节目的热议话题，Ricky。

Not quite as bad as Japan's, but they're seeing a little bit less demand for their debt, which means that the Bank of Japan is having to raise, interest rates. The government is having to raise interest rates to attract borrowers. That's a situation that we could find ourselves in in the not too distant future if we don't get our fiscal house in order here in The US. And I think maybe concerns over our debt are gonna just grow this year as, these big spending bills when their way through the senate after the house. So this is something I'm looking for as a sort of summer conversation that we'll likely be having right here, Ricky.

所以消费者信心回升了，但要警惕利率变化。David，预测市场上对美国今年陷入衰退的几率已从月初的70%骤降至目前的40%，降幅惊人。你认为这种乐观情绪合理吗？

So consumer confidence up, but keep an eye on those interest rates. David, the odds of a recession in The US happening this year have fallen precipitously on prediction market call sheet from almost 70% at the start of the month to about 40% right now. 70 to 40. That's quite the drop. Do you think this optimism is warranted?

短期来看或许合理。毕竟关税政策再次暂停实施，这意味着至少未来60到90天内我们的经济体系不会受到重大冲击，对吧？

Maybe in the short term. After all, there's a, you know, there's another pause on the tariffs. So what what does, you know, what does that mean? You know, it means that there's not going to be a big shock to this to our economic system at least for another sixty to ninety days. Right?

所以短期内确实值得高兴，但我们不知道所有这些暂停措施到期后会发生什么。我猜测关税暂停结束后，对中国商品加征关税的概率可能有50%。至于欧洲关税我们还需观望。但没错，消费者和投资者都乐于'把问题往后拖'，现在信心指数是上升了。

So so, yeah, you can be happy about that in the short term, but, you know, we don't know what's gonna happen once these deadlines hit for all the pauses that are out there. And my guess is that there's probably a 50% chance that there will be some tariff on Chinese goods when that pause gets lifted. And we'll we'll see what happens, you know, with European tariffs. But, yeah, you know, consumers and investors are happy to, quote, unquote, kick the can down the road. Consumer confidence is up.

股市还在缓慢攀升，但我们还是等到七月第二季度财报时再重新评估这些风险吧。

The market continues to grind higher, but let's revisit these risks in, in the second, quarter earnings in July.

大卫，如果你需要一句漂亮的反击，短期内为此感到高兴是个不错的选择。阿西特，在进入商业故事之前，我们前几分钟讨论的所有这些宏观数据是什么意思？对我们愚人投资这里的投资类型有影响吗？

David, if you ever need a good comeback for someone, you can be happy about that in the short term is a great one to use. Asit, before we get to the business stories, what is all this macro data that we've been talking about for the first few minutes? Does it mean anything for the type of investing we do here at The Fool?

是的，我认为有影响，里奇。愚人投资者有点像海绵。我们喜欢吸收信息。但这不意味着我们会采取行动。

Yeah. I think it means something, Ricky. Foolish investors are sort of spongy. We like to absorb information. That doesn't mean that we're gonna act.

作为一块海绵，我并不期待有人来榨干这些信息，但你必须了解数据动态。这不会改变你对企业的专注、长期投资的坚持、寻找伟大公司并长期持有的策略。但你必须保持警觉。有时大局变化足够大时，你需要在边缘做些调整。所以只需消化这些信息。

And as a sponge myself, I'm not looking for someone to come wring all this information out of me, but you have to keep apprised of the data. Doesn't change your focus on businesses, staying invested for the long term, finding great companies, trying to hold those companies over a long time. But you have to be aware. Sometimes the big picture does change enough that you have to start making changes around the edges. So just ingest it.

不一定要采取行动

Don't necessarily have to act

完全同意。你需要保持警觉。

on it. Completely agree. You need to be aware.

让我们继续关注我们的'海绵'奥西特·夏尔马。奥西特，Salesforce本周早些时候同意以约80亿美元收购Informatica。这是Salesforce一直想做的交易。Informatica是家数据管理公司。举例来说，如果你是拥有跨多个系统客户数据的大公司，Informatica能帮你整合并提供统一视图。

Let's stick with our sponge, Ossit Sharma. Ossit, Salesforce agreeing to buy Informatica for about $8,000,000,000 earlier this week. This is a deal that Salesforce has wanted to do for some time now. Informatica is a data management company. So one example is if you're a large company with customer data across a bunch of systems, Informatica will help you consolidate it and give you one view of that.

这就是Informatica的业务。为什么Salesforce愿意花80亿美元收购它？

So that's what Informatica does. Why does Salesforce want this business for $8,000,000,000?

Ricky，我喜欢你的描述方式。这恰如其分地描述了这家公司带来的价值。它非常注重追踪数据源头，绘制数据分布图，还擅长所谓的元数据编目。换句话说，它的系统经过一段时间就能理解，比如你Ricky是流程中的客户，而我可能是交易的另一方，它能持续追踪流经企业的各类数据标签。

Ricky, I like the way you described that. That's an apt description of what this company brings to the table. It is very much into looking at where data originates, sort of tracing it, making these maps of where the data is. It's also good at something called metadata cataloging. So in other words, its systems can understand after a while if you, Ricky, are a customer in a process flow and maybe, you know, I'm on the other end of the transaction, it can keep up with lots of tags about different data that flows through an enterprise.

为什么这很重要？为什么Salesforce会关心这个？我们都知道Salesforce多么重视AI代理领域。它希望为你们这些企业员工、知识工作者提供触手可及的AI代理。收购Informatica这样的小公司能让这些代理运作更透明、获取所需数据、确保可追溯性，从而更可靠地向信息工作者传递信息。

Now why is this important? Why would Salesforce care about this? Well, we all have heard how much Salesforce is into the AI agents game. It wants to put AI agents at your fingertips, you enterprise workers, knowledge workers who are out there listening today. How can they do this better is if they swallow up a smaller company like Informatica, which helps those agents act with better transparency, get to the data they need, show that that's traceable, and in general, more confident with the information they're passing back to you, information worker.

这可以说是巩固Salesforce在AI代理领域优势的关键一步。我认为投资界应该给这个战略收购打个不错的分数——这确实是项战略性收购。

So this is sort of a crucial step to undergird what Salesforce is already sort of good at with its AI agents. And I think there's some something here for the investing community to to give us, you know, a a decent grade. It's it's a strategic acquisition. That's for sure.

我认为此举与其收购的其他数据公司（Data Cloud、MuleSoft、Tableau）能很好整合。这完全是为了让客户端的AI代理发挥最大效能，我认为对他们来说是笔不错的收购。

I think one thing this does is it actually integrates well with some of the other data centric companies that it's bought Data Cloud, MuleSoft, Tableau. I'll say it's spot on. This is all about making its agents as productive as it can for its customers, and I I think this is a good, I think this is a good acquisition for them.

David表示看好，我本周早些时候也采访了同事Tim Byers，他持乐观态度。他欣赏这次全现金收购，且估值低于Salesforce最初寻求时的价格。Asit，你认为Salesforce股东对此应持什么态度？

David likes it, and I spoke with our colleague, Tim Byers, about this acquisition earlier this week, and he was bullish. He liked that this acquisition is all cash, and the valuation is a little bit less than when Salesforce first pursued it. Asit, how do you think Salesforce shareholders should feel about this one?

Ricky，我认为他们应该感到满意。正如Dave提到的，这与现有业务契合。虽然有人批评Salesforce为增长而收购过多——账面上510亿美元商誉对比约1030亿总资产，说明这些年为知识产权支付了过高溢价——但这次收购能让他们在日益同质化的AI领域保持竞争力。

I think they should feel pretty good, Ricky, because as Dave mentioned, it fits well with other pieces. And you can criticize Salesforce for having so much of acquisitions that it's undertaken just to grow. I mean, it's got $51,000,000,000 of goodwill on its books versus total assets of about 103,000,000,000. So that's a lot of intellectual property they've paid or overpaid for over the years. But I think this one should make you feel like they can remain competitive in this AI space where it'll become increasingly difficult to be differentiated from your competitors.

当今世界的差异化优势在于数据获取能力，或是能对数据实现竞争对手做不到的突破。所以对Salesforce股东来说这很合理。但归根结底要看实效——这必须帮助提升营收，以及过去三年持续改善的关键运营利润率。

So what gives you that differentiation in today's world is having access to data or being able to do great things with that data that competitors can't. So this makes a lot of sense if you're a Salesforce shareholder. But, again, proof is in the pudding. You need to have this help you grow revenues and that all important operating margin that Salesforce has been improving over the last three years.

让我们谈谈盈利问题。股东们对Okta这家身份管理公司感到不满，它总喜欢在不方便的时候让我进行双重验证。这就是他们赚钱的方式。这家公司虽然超出预期并维持了业绩指引，关税方面也有所回调，但投资者为何如此挑剔呢？

Let's move to earnings. Shareholders were displeased with Okta, David, the identity management company that likes to make me do two factor authentication at inconvenient times. That's what they do for money. This is a company that beat estimates and maintained guidance, little bit of tariff pullback, but what are investors so fussy about here?

我认为投资者主要纠结于三点：短期增长、短期增长还是短期增长。说真的，今年开局强劲，但分析师质疑为何全年收入增长指引和当前剩余绩效义务增长没有更高。既然开局这么好，为何要略微下调，或者为何不达到投资者期望的高度？这是个合理的问题，因为指引实际上暗示下半年增长将放缓，尽管开局良好。但管理层坚持他们的说法。

I think investors are fussing over three things, near term growth, near term growth, and near term growth. In all seriousness, it was a strong start to the year, but analysts questioned why the full year revenue growth guidance and why its current remaining performance obligation growth weren't higher. I mean, if you started off the year strong, why why, you know, why pull that down a little bit, or maybe why not make it as high as investors might wanna see? It's a valid question because the guidance actually implies that growth is gonna slow in the second half of the year after such a good start. But management stuck to their story.

他们表示，目前不确定性太大，无法做出更强劲的预测。

They're saying, hey. There's just too much uncertainty for us to make a stronger forecast right now.

我认为这家公司基本面强劲。看看GAAP毛利率——会计们喜欢的那个指标——达到77%，净收入留存率虽有放缓但仍为106%。这意味着现有客户与Okta的业务在增加，尽管增速略有下降。你在看财报时，长期投资者应该担忧哪些问题，还是说更应该关注哪些积极信号？

So this is a company, I think, with some strong fundamentals. When you look at that GAAP gross margin, the gross margin that accountants like, it's 77%, seven seven net revenue retention rate. While that's slowing is a 106%. That means that existing customers are doing more business with Okta, but, yes, that rate of growth is decreasing a little bit. When you were looking at the results, are there things in here that the long term foolish investors should be concerned about or maybe more green shoots to focus on?

首先我们需要明白，Okta确实是身份管理领域的领导者，这个市场仍是网络安全的关键部分且正在增长。随着公司规模扩大，其新产品逐渐获得认可，利润率在提升，现金流状况稳健。坦白说，以6倍远期销售额计算，这支股票即使回调后仍接近52周高点，这个估值倍数非常合理。我认为这是个机会。

So I think we need the first thing we need to do is understand that Okta is actually the leader in identity management, and that market continues to be a critical part of cybersecurity, and it's growing. Its new products are gaining traction as we're as we're starting to see the company is starting to scale, margins are expanding, cash flow generation is solid. And frankly, at six times forward sales, this is a very reasonable multiple for a stock which is still near its fifty two week highs even after the pullback. I I see this as an opportunity.

广告之后，我们将关注零售股，看看是否有值得入手的标的。请别走开，这里是Motley Full Money。欢迎回到Motley Full Money节目。

After the break, we're looking at retail stocks and seeing if there's any deals on the rack. Stay right here. This is Motley Full Money. Yeah. Welcome back to Motley Full Money.

我是Ricky Mulvey，与Asset Sharma一起主持。这位是David Meyer。现在我们要重点讨论零售股，从Abercrombie & Fitch开始。Abercrombie周三早间公布的业绩没有投资者担心的那么糟糕。是的，David。

I'm Ricky Mulvey here with Asset Sharma. This is David Meyer. Right now, we're gonna focus on retail stocks starting with Abercrombie and Fitch. Abercrombie posted Wednesday morning, and the results were not as bad as investors feared. Yes, David.

运营利润率预期略有下降。关税问题真是让人头疼，唉。不过A&F总体仍保持着可比的销售预期。大卫，你从这些结果中看到了什么？

There was a slight decrease in operating margin outlook. Shout out to the tariffs and, oh, no. But A and F, in total, is still posting comparable sales outlook. David, what'd you see in the results here?

是的。我看到这家公司的表现超出了市场预期，因此今天股价才有这么好的涨幅。看，本季度的销售和盈利都强于预期，管理层实际上还略微上调了全年指引——这既出乎分析师预料，显然也超出市场预期。正如我们之前所说，当前宏观环境存在诸多不确定性，很多公司都在反复强调这一点。

Yeah. I see a company that is performing better than the market was anticipating, hence the the nice jump today. Look. Sales and earnings came in stronger than expected for the quarter, and management actually raised their guidance for the full year slightly, which was not anticipated by analysts and clearly not by the market. So as we've said before, there's a lot of macro uncertainty out there, and lots of companies are calling, calling it out.

所以在当前环境下，这已经是一家公司能做到的最好表现了。

So in today's environment, that's about as good as a company can do.

大约一个半月前，我和吉姆·吉利斯一起为Abercrombie & Fitch做了个分析报告，没错，就是在《Motley Full Money》节目上。当时我特别提到股票回购这件事——你最希望看到的就是管理层在估值倍数下降时回购股票。而Abercrombie本季度确实回购了约5%的股份，而且他们是用现金完成的。

So I worked out a thesis for Abercrombie and Fitch about a month and a half ago with Jim Gillies, and, yes, I did it here on Motley Full Money. And one thing I mentioned was the buybacks. You'd like to see management buying back stock when multiples are down. And Abercrombie took out about 5% worth of their stock in this quarter. And, yes, they had the cash to do it.

他们没有举债。你觉得这个资金配置决策明智吗？我能在节目上小小庆祝一下吗？

They didn't take out debt. When you look at that, is that a smart allocation move? Can I take a victory lap here on the show?

老兄，你简直该举着面胜利大旗绕场狂奔。干得漂亮！管理层这次回购时机把握得非常好——毕竟不是每家公司都能做好这件事。一季度股价处于低位时，他们果断抓住了机会。

Dude, you should be you should be running around that track with a big old flag saying victory. Yes. That that was, that was well done. Kudos to management for being very opportunistic with their repurchases because that's not something that every company does well. The stock was significantly lower in the first quarter, and they took advantage of it.

这件事还给我们上了另一课：保持强劲的资产负债表有多重要——它能给企业提供更多选择权。

And the other thing it does, it's another valuable lesson about having a strong balance sheet. It gives companies optionality.

我曾为Abercrombie & Fitch做过一些人工智能相关的工作，特别是研究他们的供应链。他们在全球各地都有工厂，其中5%的工人位于中国——这个贸易战的核心地带。他们在东南亚还有更多工厂，这种分布式供应链布局让我很欣赏。对于关注零售业的投资者而言，他们现在该如何看待供应链问题呢？

I had to do some AI work with Abercrombie and Fitch, especially looking at their supply chain. They got factories all over the world. 5% of their workers are in China, which is really the center of the trade war. They've got more factories over in Southeast Asia, and that's something I liked was seeing that distributed supply chain. For investors looking at retailers, you know, how should they be thinking about supply chains right now?

我认为你说得很对。我们需要查明企业的工厂分布——这些信息都是公开可查的。另外我认为必须关注那些公开预估关税影响的企业，比如UGG和HOKA鞋的制造商Deckers Outdoor最近就发布了相关数据。现在Abercrombie也表态说...

So, I think you're spot on. You need to find out where they are because, that information is available. And then the other thing I think we need to do is to pay attention to any company that gives an estimate for what they think tariffs are gonna cost. We've recently saw that from Deckers Outdoor, the maker of UGGs and HOKA Shoes. And now we see Abercrombie saying, hey.

他们预计业务将受到约5000万美元影响。听着，任何此类信息都能帮助分析师建立未来预测模型。在充满不确定性的时期，所有这些信息都至关重要。

We think it's gonna be about 50,000,000 for their business. Look. Any piece of information like this helps analysts model the future. And, again, with uncertainty, all that information helps.

让我们转向拼多多。Asit，这次我给你选的股票投资者态度可比Abercrombie & Fitch消极多了。作为TEMU的母公司，这里是我们工程师同事Dan Boyd最爱的购物天堂。天啊，他简直痴迷于购买那些价格低廉的闪亮小物件，虽然没人知道买来做什么——但Dan确实对TEMU爱不释手。

Let's move to Pinduoduo. Asit, I'm giving you a stock that investors were a little more sour on than Abercrombie and Fitch here. This is the parent company of TEMU, where our engineer and colleague Dan Boyd loves to shop, shop, shop. Boy, oh, boy, does he like to buy little shiny things at very cheap prices, and then who knows what he's gonna do with them? But, man, Dan loves Tibu.

这家公司销售额仍在增长，但净利润暴跌47%。哎呀，这就是贸易战的实际影响，Asit。你从财报中看出了什么？

Sales still growing for this company, but net profit falling 47%. Yikes. That's the trade war in action, Asit. What'd you see in the results?

没错Ricky。财报反映了几点问题：首先是这场反复无常的贸易战确实开始动摇市场对管理层的信心。拼多多管理层目前正努力应对多重阻力。

Yes. It is, Ricky. So, you know, the results show me a few things. One is that the and again, off again, trade war is really starting to hurt confidence in management. Management here has a few headwinds that it's it's trying to work through.

其一是像京东、阿里这样的竞争对手正在反击——毕竟TEMU作为拼多多的王牌业务此前表现太亮眼。另外美国取消了小额免税政策：贸易战初期，特朗普政府剥夺了拼多多等企业向美国免税寄送小额商品的权利。经过申诉后，美国开征了高额关税，虽然后来从惊人的税率降至54%，但这仍意味着拼多多很难再通过TEMU向美国倾销廉价商品。

One is that competitors like jd.com and Alibaba are fighting back after just a really good run by TaeMoo, for example, is a great part of Pinduoduo. And then what we have is the de minimis exemption, which went away. So in the first part of this trade war, the Trump administration sort of took away the ability of companies like Pinduoduo to send goods small of small value into The US without the imposition of tariffs. Now after appealing that, they imposed a tariff, which was pretty high. And then, again, long story with anything you talk about in tariffs, those are now down to a not so blistering 54%, which simply means that it's gonna be really hard for Pinduoduo to sell these cheap goods into The US through TEMU.

另一方面，中国政府正在实施一些补贴政策以刺激消费，这对其竞争对手的益处多于拼多多。拼多多在中国运营的是一个第三方平台，因此无法直接参与这些补贴。同时，它必须让那些总觉得自己被拼多多压榨的商家满意，因此不得不对这些商家进行投资。把这些因素综合起来，就导致了净利润的急剧下降。所以我对这个结果并不感到意外，但我认为随着中国消费者开始适应，未来所有中国零售商的状况可能会趋于平衡。而且我认为他们明年的消费会有所增加。

Now on the other hand, you've got some subsidization subsidization going on from the Chinese government to spur consumer spending, and that benefits more its rivals than it does, Pinduoduo, which operates something of a third party platform in China, so it can't directly participate in those subsidies. And it's having to keep its merchants happy who've always felt that they're sort of squeezed by Pinduoduo, so it's having to invest in those merchants. You add all this up together, and you have this drastic decrease in net income. So I'm I'm not surprised on what level, but I think that, you know, going forward, it's probably gonna even out among all the Chinese retailers as the consumer in China begins to adjust. And I think they'll spend a little bit more next year.

所以虽然还没完全脱困，但也并非无药可救。

So not out of the woods, but but not terminal either.

奥斯汀，你在提布上买过东西吗？

Austin, have you ever bought anything on Tibu?

没有。我不是丹·博伊德。我多次想过应该试试。我天生节俭，买书和铅笔这类东西，大多数时候我

No. I'm no Dan Boyd. I have many times thought that I should. I'm a thrifty guy by nature. I buy books and pencils, and most of the times, I

都是在本地购买。对于想涉足这类行业的投资者建议：由于中国零售商处于许多关税战争贸易谈判的核心，这是个不受欢迎的行业。市盈率已经被压得很低。所以有些投资者可能会看到一家仍在增长销售额、利润率受损的公司，然后想，也许我现在就该涉足这个不受欢迎的行业，做个逆向投资者。

get those locally. Advice for investors who wanna dip into a category like this, because a Chinese retailer that is at the heart of a lot of this, tariff war trade negotiations, this is a hated category. The the PE ratio has been depressed quite a bit. So some investors may look at that and see a company that's still growing sales, taking a hit on the margin, and think, you know, maybe I wanna take a dip into this hated category right now. Be a contrarian.

你对这些人有什么建议？

What say you to them?

是的，我不会劝阻他们。我几乎想说更该关注阿里巴巴。中国的大型集团在科技和零售领域都很擅长。阿里巴巴涉足了太多科技投资领域。

Yeah. I I wouldn't discourage that. I would almost say look more towards Alibaba. So the Chinese big conglomerates are really good at doing tech as well as retail. Alibaba has its hands in so many tech investments.

腾讯有些类似，尽管它并不完全算零售商。所以如果你想找零售领域受挫的股票，为何不坚持选择阿里巴巴？长期来看你更有机会获胜。

Tencent is sort of similar, although it's not really as much of a retailer. So if you're you're looking for something that is getting beaten down on the retail side, why not stick with an Alibaba? You have more chances to win the long term.

虽然零售指数从年初的低迷中有所回升，但并非所有估值都已恢复。或许市场上仍有些便宜货。我们先请戴维发言。你认为有哪些零售股值得投资者关注？或是像昂控股这样即使没有股价折扣，也值得长期持有的优质公司？

And then while retail indexes have recovered since a rough start to the year, not all of the valuations have recovered. Maybe there's some deals still out there. We'll we'll start with David. Are there any retail stocks in the bargain bin that you think are worth investors' attention? Or maybe maybe even a full price company, something like an on holdings where you're not getting any discount on the shares, but still a strong company to hold for the long term.

我正在关注百思买，该公司将在5月29日周四公布财报。原因是我希望获取更多市场环境信息。如果要了解关税影响的典型案例，百思买无疑是最佳选择。我会先从这里获取信息，然后再看看零售折扣区是否有其他机会。

One company that I'm looking at is going to be Best Buy, which actually, will report earnings on Thursday, May 29. And the reason is is because I wanna actually get more info about the environment. And if there was ever a company that was going to give me more information about the impact of tariff tariffs, it's going to be the it's going to be Best Buy. So I'm looking there first for information, and then, and then I'll start looking to see if there's any others in the in the, in the retail bargain bin.

阿西特，你怎么看？瑞奇，我认为投资者仍能在TJ Maxx或其母公司TJX Companies以最小成本获得最大价值。这家公司在全球采购团队管理上极具纪律性，擅长在各种环境下完成采购。令人惊讶的是，关税环境对他们的影响比你想象的要小。

Asit, how about you? Ricky, I think investors can still get the max for the minimum at TJ Maxx or its parent company rather TJX Companies. This is a business that has a lot of discipline in its global buying teams. They're great at buying through all kinds of environments. So surprisingly, the tariff environment isn't affecting them as much as you might think.

运营稳健的公司，资产负债表健康，旗下拥有多个优秀品牌。所以我可能会关注他们的股票代码TJX。

Solidly run company, great balance sheet, great brands under its umbrella. So I might look their symbol TJX.

各位，稍后节目中还会见到你们。接下来我们将对话西门子前CEO克劳斯·柯菲德，他将分享投资者在转型故事中应该关注什么。欢迎回到《Motley Full Money》，我是瑞奇·马尔维。

Fellas, we're gonna see you a little bit later in the show. But up next, we've got Klaus Kleinfeld. He's the former CEO of Siemens talking about what investors should look for in turnaround stories. Welcome back to Motley Full Money. I'm Ricky Mulvey.

克劳斯·柯菲德曾任西门子和美铝CEO，领导跨国企业必须学会管理能量。他还是《从领导到掌控：商业与生活中可持续成功的策略》的作者。我们探讨了他的著作，以及如何寻找具有可持续竞争优势的企业。你的书着重强调能量管理理念，而多数人只考虑时间管理。我们节目在之前的对话中也多次提及能量管理。

Klaus Kleinfeld is the former CEO of Siemens and Alcoa, and when you're the leader of a multinational company, you've got to learn how to manage your energy. Kleinfeld is also the author of Leading to Mastering Strategies for Sustainable Success in Business and Life. We talk about his book and how to look for companies with sustainable competitive advantages. Much of your book is focused around this idea of energy management, and many people think about just time management. We've we've talked about energy management a bit on the show in in previous conversations.

但当你领导跨国企业时，有没有什么关于能量管理的事情是你现在知道而当时希望早知道的？

But when you were leading multinational companies, is there anything you wish you knew at that time about energy management that you know now?

幸运的是，我在职业生涯中虽晚但及时地学习了能量管理。因此我能在相当长的商业生涯中应用它，至少在过去十到十五年。但作为在德国出生长大的人，我此前一直是高效时间管理的狂热信徒，习惯了纪律性地利用时间。所以我认为能量管理是个非常重要的概念，这也是我写这本书的原因之一。

Well, fortunately I learned early enough, but still late in my career about energy management. So I could apply that in a good part of my business life, at least in the last ten, fifteen years. But I was an addict of efficient time management before as somebody who was born and raised in Germany. So used to discipline use time. So yeah, I think energy management is a very important concept, you know, and which was one of the reasons why I wrote the book.

问题在于：能量是如何运作的？早晨醒来时你希望自己精力充沛，但这些能量会在一天中逐渐消耗。每次动用意志力时，你实际上都在消耗能量储备。我认为大多数人没有完全理解这一点——你必须补充能量。随之而来的问题是：我该如何获取能量？

Because the question is, how does that work with energy? And you wake up in the morning and hopefully you have a lot of energy, you know, but it burns through during the course of the day, And every time you have to use willpower, you actually use some of the energy resources. And so that's one thing that I think most people don't fully understand. You have to recharge it. And then comes the question, how do I get energy?

能量是什么？它可追溯到身体、心智和灵魂这些基本要素。我将心智区分为情感层面和思维层面。身体层面的物理能量相对容易被理解，但像呼吸、睡眠等概念则不然。

What is energy? And it goes back to the simple things like body, mind, and soul. And I distinguish in the mind between the emotion and the mental side of things. And the body part, the physical energy part is relatively well understood. But there are concepts like breathing, sleep, that are not so well understood.

在情感层面，许多人认为情绪是他人施加给你的，却没意识到是你自己允许情绪在体内产生。你可以从高效能人士那里学到许多控制技巧。思维层面同样如此——关键在于专注力。我们多少次看到伟大领袖在别人视为挑战时发现机遇？

But on the emotional side, many people think the emotions are brought on to you by somebody else, but not realizing that you yourself allow an emotion to be created in you. And you can learn a lot of tricks also from the high performance world, how you can control it. Same thing on the mental side. Mental is all about focus. And how many times have we seen that great leaders see an opportunity when others see a challenge?

这类故事不胜枚举。然后是商业界几乎从不谈论的部分——精神层面。我不知道你的朋友圈里是否有这样的人，但我认识一些人在某个时刻突然意识到内心极度空虚，在某种意义上迷失了自我。

And there's tons of those stories. And then comes this thing that we almost never talk about in the business world. It's the spiritual side. And I don't know whether you have in your friendship group, I do. People who actually have realized at some point in time that they feel very empty and they are lost in a certain way.

最让我惊讶的是，商界人士的 burnout 出现得早得多。而在体育界，顶级选手的巅峰期往往持续得更久。以我热爱的网球为例——过去二十年发生了巨变，顶尖选手的年龄比历史上任何时候都大得多。但看看那些40岁出头的CEO们，这个数字已经大幅下降了。

And I was most surprised that in the business world, people burn out much earlier. Whereas in the sports world, you see people basically being at the very top for much, much longer. I personally love tennis. And if you look at tennis, I mean, this has changed over the last twenty years, the top players are way, way older than they ever were. But when you look at the 10 year old CEOs, it's come way down.

你的书中还有一个令人惊讶的观点：作为领导者，你实际上在寻找那些在会议中默默持怀疑态度的人，他们发表讽刺言论逗笑他人。通常人们认为领导者需要啦啦队员和积极支持使命的人。我相信这背后也有故事。如果你在会议中，为什么要寻找那些悄悄发表讽刺言论的人呢？

Something surprising in your book as well is that as a leader, you're actually looking for people who are quietly cynical in meetings, making a cynical remark and making other people laugh. And, you know, there's a read on that, which is that leaders want cheerleaders and people who are positive about the mission going on. And I'm sure there's a story there as well. If you're in a meeting with people, why are you looking for someone who's quietly making cynical remarks?

倒不是说我在刻意寻找这类人，但我有幸深度参与过许多企业转型。当你作为新人加入，在会议上阐述改革方案时，突然听到背景里有人窃笑——通常这意味着某个人说了句让全场会心一笑的话。

It's not that I'm I'm directly looking for those, but I have had the pleasure to heavily involved in many, many turnarounds. And so you get injected in this. It's usually combined with a ton of changes that are there to happen. You are the new kid in town, and you go into a meeting, you describe what you think needs to happen, you suddenly realize that you hear some kind of giggling in the background. And that's usually And you realize that there's one person who probably had said something that made everybody else giggle.

我为什么要关注？经验告诉我应该主动接触这个人：'你好，我想认识你，刚才对我的发言有什么看法？'因为我发现，这些持怀疑态度的人往往深谙组织运作——唯有具备智慧的人才能说出引发共鸣的讽刺言论。

So why am I looking? And typically what I have learned is I then go seek this person out and say, Hey, look, I wanna introduce myself, blah, blah, blah. Just wanna hear what were your thoughts on what I was talking about? Because what I had to realize in people who are cynical, this are very often people who are very knowledgeable in the organization. Because to be intelligently cynical, you need intelligence to make other people laugh.

低级的玩笑不会引发共鸣，人们只会觉得说话者愚蠢。但能作出精妙讽刺的人通常深谙行业本质，了解业务痛点。通过与他们对话，我常能了解到'类似方案曾实施但失败'这样的关键信息，进而探讨失败原因。

So usually the dumb jokes don't have that much of an impact on people and people say, just an idiot. Somebody who can make a cynical, good cynical comment typically understands the industry often, understands the business and you can learn from it. So I try to involve the person in a conversation and just learn. And what happens is that very often I do learn from the person, for instance, that things like that have been tried out before failed. And then I can get into a conversation, why did they fail?

我们可以如何调整避免重蹈覆辙？或者有其他方案？第一我获得了新知；第二若能说服对方'这就是我规避你所说风险的实施方案'，就能赢得支持。当这个公认的怀疑者转变立场时，他带来的追随效应是惊人的。

What can we do different to have it not fail? Or are there other approaches? Number one, I learned something. Number two also is if you then can involve the person and say, here are the reasons why I think we should do it and this is how I would do it, which avoids the issues that you are implying, you can win the person over. The moment you win the person over, this person has a followership and is known as somebody else who's cynical.

在变革环境中，这类人的转变会产生巨大影响力。因为周围同事都知道：这不是个会阿谀奉承的人，而是习惯性保持批判态度的独立思考者。赢得他们的真心认同（而不仅是表面服从），就能带动整个团队由内而外地支持变革。

If this person changes in a change environment, the followership that that person brings you is enormous. Because people around them know this is not somebody who would kiss the new boss's ass. This is somebody who usually stands up against the person quietly though. So the impact of winning a larger crowd over to basically be behind this also with their not just with their head and with their but also with their heart.

这揭示了企业转型的幕后故事。我们之前从投资角度讨论过投资者难以把握转型机会——比如财经媒体总在CEO更替时过度反应，星巴克就是最新案例。我们还谈到耐吉当前困境：在切断分销渠道推行直营战略后，现在需要重新赢回合作伙伴。

That's a look sort of behind the scenes at turnarounds. We were talking from the investing side about how difficult it is for investors to to get into turnarounds. Often because in the in the financial media, people get excited about them as soon as you hear about a CEO change. So, Starbucks is is a recent example of that. We were also talking about Nike and and the troubles going on at at Nike where they have to win back their distribution partners after sort of shutting them off to pursue their own strategy.

正如我与同事吉姆·吉利斯讨论时提到的，其中一个核心观点是：企业转型所需的时间往往远超多数投资者的预期。作为亲历者，您认为零售端投资者——特别是那些每月仅投入几百美元股市的小额投资者——在评估市场转型案例时，最需要了解什么？

And one of the themes of it, as I was talking to my colleague Jim Gillies about this, is it takes much longer than many investors wanna believe that a turnaround story is going to take. Having been in the middle of it, is there any, you know, is there anything you think investors should know, especially on the retail side? We're talking to people who are investing a few $100 a month in the stock market, that they should know if they're looking at a turnaround story in the market.

成功转型需要什么？短期转型或许可以靠强权手段——举着枪命令下属服从。但若追求可持续的转型，就必须回归本质：我为客户创造了什么价值？客户价值其实很简单——

What do you need for a good turnaround? And I mean, yes, you can say I have a short term turnaround, I need a big gun and I tell them, hey, you know what, You follow my orders or else. But if you want a sustainable turnaround, that's usually not how it works. You pretty much have to start from what value do I create for the customers? And the value for customers is relatively simple.

两个维度：要么帮客户增加收入，要么帮其降低成本，因为最终目标都是提升盈利能力。因此必须透彻理解：现有产品是什么？如何改进？这是其一。

You have two dimensions. You either do something for them that increases their revenues or decreases their costs because in the end they all want a higher profitability. So you really have to understand as well as possible, what is the offering? How can the offering be improved? That's one thing.

其二是必须评估团队：他们的动机是什么？能力如何？协作效率怎样？因为我反复见证过，企业唯一可持续的竞争优势，永远在于人才质量及其协作方式，这两者就是魔法所在。

The second thing is, you also need to understand what is the motivation of the team? How good is the team? The quality of the team and how do they work together? Because in the end, I have seen again and again and again, the only sustainable competitive advantage you have in a business is the talent and the way they work together. Both of these things, this is the magic.

第三要看现金流。别迷信EBITDA数据，现金才是王道。客户、人才、现金流这三个维度，就是我判断转型可行性的'真北指标'。另外提醒投资者：别被天花乱坠的故事迷惑。我见过太多空有宏伟愿景却无法落地的案例——

And the third thing is you just have to take a look at the cash flow. Don't trust any EBITDA numbers, in the end it's cash. And I think with those three dimension customer people and cash, I would always, always look at that as my first true north to understand does that work or does it not work? And I would not fall by the way, one other thing that I've seen again and again, that investors fall for the great storytellers. And I've seen many, many times a great visionary, so to say, that a great vision is only as good as the implementation.

再伟大的愿景，若不能转化为客户端的成功，终将耗尽团队热情。人们可能一时追随，但当发现无法获胜时就会离开。唯有让团队看见胜利曙光，他们才会持续追随。

And a great vision, if it's not translating into success for the customer, basically burns the people out and people will not follow anymore. They follow for a first moment, but then they lose interest because they see we are not winning. The moment people see we are winning, they will follow.

您提到人才是可持续竞争优势。但对普通投资者而言这很难判断——比如Glassdoor的评分可能存在人为操控。

You mentioned people as a sustainable competitive advantage. For our audience, that's that's pretty tough to identify. You can look at Glassdoor reviews. Sometimes those can be gamed a little bit, let's say.

是的，我们可以这么说。没错。

Yeah. Let's put it that way. Yes.

对我们投资者来说，要了解公司内部情况极其困难，尤其是我们没有研究团队的情况下。我们基本上是靠自己摸索。但寻找可持续的竞争优势仍然很重要。您如何看待这些优势？

It's it's incredibly difficult for us to for for us investors to to know what's going on inside of a company, especially. We don't have research teams. We're we're kind of in it on our own. And it's it's still important to find sustainable competitive advantages. How do you how do you think about those?

听众朋友们可以通过哪些方式找到具有可持续竞争优势的公司？

How how are what are some ways that our listeners can find companies with sustainable competitive advantages?

首先可以从客户优势入手，这对投资者来说也相对容易判断。第一，许多投资者具备行业知识，了解行业需求，以及当前和未来的产品如何满足这些需求。我强烈建议，这方面评估得越准确，你的投资决策就会越明智。

Well, I started with customer advantage. That's pretty easy for investors also to figure out. Number one, many of the investors have knowledge about the industry and understand what does the industry need, and how do the offerings today and in the future fit this. So it starts with that. I can highly advise the better you become with evaluating that and checking the box on that, the better off you are.

其次，我建议可以接触一些客户和竞争对手？他们往往掌握着有价值的信息。另外在人才方面，现在多数公司都会举办投资者日或邀请投资者。通常不仅CEO出席，CFO、CTO等高管也会露面。

And then you can, I mean, I would always talk to some customers and also some competitors? They also have good information about that. So that's one thing. The other thing is on the people side, I mean, most companies these days have investor days or invite investors. And typically it's not just the CEO, but definitely also the CFO and CTO and some of the top leaders.

我认为首先不要回避这些会议。其次作为投资者应该直言不讳，可以建议管理层在下次投资者会议上让一线主管参与。会前最好能拿到更详细的履历。我见过很多人这样做。如果发现公司没这么做，完全可以主动提出要求。

I think I would not be shy, first of all, attend those meetings. And secondly, I will not be shy as an investor to say, I would encourage the leadership in the next investor meeting to bring on your first line management. And before that, I'd like to have probably a better CV. And I've seen many people do that. But if you feel that they don't do it, then you can ask for it.

第三点是我个人作为CEO始终坚持的，就是实地考察工厂和设施。这种走访非常有意思——因为很难伪装出良好的现场氛围，你能从车间工人的眼神、他们与管理层的互动方式（是回避还是热情招呼）看出端倪。

The third thing is, which I personally, as a CEO have always done, is factory visits, facility visits, factory and just walkthroughs. And it's very interesting. I think it's hard to fake a good walk through because you can see how people look from the shop floor, look at the leaders. Do they look away? Do they wave at them?

领导了解这些情况吗？领导如何对待其他人？所以我认为如果有参观某些设施的机会，我总是会抓住它，甚至可能会主动要求，说，嘿，你知道吗？有没有机会参观你们的一些设施？你们一直在谈论这些很棒的事情。

Does the leader know anything about them? How does the leader deal with the others? So I think if there's an offer to visit some facilities, I would always hop on it and potentially even ask for it and say, hey, you know what? Is there a chance to visit some of your facilities? You've been talking about these great things.

我们能看看那些吗？就邀请几个人，十个、二十个人。我自己付机票钱，你知道的，来吧。所以我认为大多数公司实际上会欢迎投资者这样做，因为这也能让投资者和公司之间的对话变得更好。

Can we see those? And just invite a few folks, ten, twenty folks. I'll pay for my flight myself, you know, come, you know. So I think most companies actually would enjoy investors doing that because it also makes the conversation between investors and the company much better.

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好的。接下来，我们有雷达股票。你正在收听Motley Full Money。我是Ricky Mulvey，再次与Asit Sharma和David Meyer一起。Fools，这周发生了一件大事，那就是西南航空正式结束了它的两件行李免费托运政策。

Alright. Up next, we've got radar stocks. You're listening to Motley Full Money. I'm Ricky Mulvey joined again by Asit Sharma and David Meyer. Fools, a momentous thing happened this week, and that is that Southwest has officially ended its two bags fly free policy.

除非你有正确的身份或正确的信用卡，现在第一件行李收费35美元，第二件行李收费45美元。我知道作为消费者我对这件事的感受，但我们会从投资角度来讨论，因为这是一个投资节目。Assit，对西南航空长期来说，这是个好主意还是坏主意？

Unless you've got the right status or the right credit card, it's now $35 for your first bag and $45 for your second bag. I know how I feel about this as a consumer, but we'll keep it on the investing angle since this is an investing show. Assit, good idea, bad idea for Southwest long term?

坏主意。所以，Ricky，我几个月前和Dylan详细讨论过这个问题，我们谈到了单位成本和这个行业的各种指标，也许西南航空不得不这样做。但我越想越觉得，伙计们，从其他地方削减成本吧。你们有什么与品牌密不可分的东西吗？这就是人们选择西南航空的原因。

Bad idea. So, Ricky, I I discussed this at length with Dylan a few months ago, and we talked about unit costs and all kinds of metrics in this industry and maybe Southwest had to do this. But the more that I've sat on it, the more I thought, look, guys, cut your costs somewhere else. Do you have something that's inextricably tied to your brand? That's why people fly Southwest.

你们在对这个品牌做什么？所以我实际上已经从模棱两可转向了明确的否定。这不是一个好主意。

What are you doing to this brand? So I've actually landed on the other side from, it's ambiguous to, no. This this wasn't a great idea.

你曾向我做出品牌承诺，现在却要违背。大卫，你也有同感吗？还是看着那些行李费在想，伙计，他们得为股东们多捞点钱？

You've made me a brand promise, and now you're breaking it. David, do you feel this the same way, or are you looking at those baggage fees and thinking, man, they need to get that cheddar for the shareholders?

不。我经常乘坐西南航空，他们可以把行李费随意计入机票价格里——他们本来就这么做的。这让我作为旅客感觉很好，知道去丹佛时带那块大滑雪板不用额外付费，尽管费用其实已经包含在内。所以我认为这对他们的品牌不利。

No. So I frequently fly Southwest, and they can put whatever baggage fee they want inside the price of their ticket. That's what they already do. They it it makes me feel good as a traveler to know that my big old snowboard on the way to Denver doesn't cost me anything even if it does cost me something already. So this isn't I do not think this is good for their brand.

我觉得这就是在抢钱。而且说实话，我不明白为什么要让原本就提供优惠价格的客户开始比价？我无法理解这种做法。

I think this is just a money grab. And, frankly, I don't why would you want somebody to now try to be a price shopper when you usually have very good prices to begin with? I don't understand this.

在进入雷达股票话题前快速插一句，因为最近飞机上的彩排很热门——阿西特，西南航空的开放式选座很快就要取消了。但趁现在还有，下次坐西南航班时，你打算怎么阻止别人坐你旁边？

And then quickly, before we get to radar stocks, because rehearsals in airplanes are hot in the streets right now, Asit, open seating, that's gonna be gone from Southwest in a little bit. But quickly, in the meantime, while Southwest does have open seating, how are you gonna keep someone from sitting next to you on your next Southwest flight?

很简单，瑞奇。当我坐下后，盯着前方六排座位。每个朝我走来的人，隔着六排就对他们咧嘴大笑。他们会立刻移开视线。

Yeah. So it's real simple, Ricky. Just look six seats ahead of me when I'm seated. So everyone who's coming towards me, smile at them really big from six seats away. They look away.

等他们再看你时，发现你还在笑。这人怎么回事？通常我这么做后，就能独占旁边两个座位了。

They look back at you. The sky is still smiling at me. What is going on here? I usually can just curl up on the next two seats when I do that.

好了。现在进入雷达股票环节。玻璃后的丹·博伊德先生要提问了。阿西特，继续由你接招，你是第一个。

Alright. Let's get to stocks on our radar. Our man behind the glass, mister Dan Boyd, is going to hit you with a question. Asit, we'll keep it on you. You're up first.

你这周在关注什么？

What are you looking at this week?

所以，Ricky，我正在关注一家名为Soundhound AI的小公司，股票代码是SOUN。这是一支曾短暂成为模因股的AI股票。它提供语音技术，我认为Soundhound最吸引我的是他们拥有自己的AI基础模型。他们在内部构建了这个能清晰表达人类语音的优秀模型。

So, Ricky, I am putting a tiny company called Soundhound AI, symbol s o u n, on my radar screen. This is an AI stock that briefly, had sort of meme status. What it does is it provides voice technology. And I think what's so interesting to me about Soundhound is that they've got their own foundational model for AI. So in house, they've built this great model which can articulate human speech.

它能真正分析语音模式。这项技术非常出色，现在被应用于免下车点餐系统。一些大型快餐连锁店正在使用它。他们还向汽车行业的原始设备制造商销售这项技术。那些本可以与大型科技公司合作的企业，却选择了Soundhound，因为他们的技术确实出众。

It can really analyze voice patterns. The technology is so good that they're using it now in drive throughs. So some major, quick service restaurant chains are using it. They're selling this to original equipment manufacturers in the auto industry. So companies that could work with these great big, tech companies are choosing to work with Soundhound because their technology is so good.

你也可以在手机上使用它的应用来识别声音，尤其是音乐。我觉得很有趣的是，听到一首歌后打开这个应用就能识别出它的来源，有点像Shazam的功能。这家公司规模仍然很小，上个季度收入仅为2900万美元，但同比增长了151%。这家公司在未来至少三四年内还会持续亏损，但在我见过的AI领域企业中，它似乎拥有独特的价值主张。

You can also use it on your phone, as an app to identify, like, sounds and music in particular. I find that a lot of fun to to hear a song and and try to figure out where it's from just by opening this app, sort of Shazam like in that sense. This is a company that's, again, very tiny. Revenue, was only 29,000,000 this past quarter, but that was up a 151%. This company is gonna have losses for a while for at least the next three to four years, but it is one of the companies that I've seen that seems to have its own unique value proposition out in AI land, so

值得关注。Dan，我听到你提到它四五次了，这应该能引起你的注意。或许关于Soundhound有个问题？

it's worth following. Dan, I think I heard there four or five times. That better get your attention. Maybe a question about Soundhound.

是啊，未来三四年都亏损听起来真不错，Ricky。你就爱听这个。等不及市场上又出现一个听不懂我对手机大喊‘代理’的产品了。

Yeah. Losses for the next three to four years sure does sound good, Ricky. You love to hear that. Can't wait for yet another product out in the market that can't understand me when I shout into my phone, agent.

Asit，这是对Dan嘲讽的回应。算不上关于Soundhound的问题。合理。

Asit, a response to Dan's insult. Not really a question about Soundhound. Valid.

我是说，我自己在使用很多科技产品时也有这种体验。所以我不会在这里虚伪地假装，也不会对丹使出二手车销售员那套把戏。时间会证明一切。大卫，你这周有什么发现？

I mean, I have this experience myself with so much of the tech I use. So I'm not gonna be disingenuous here and and try to get all used car sales salesman on Dan. Time will tell. David, what you got this week?

我关注的股票是SentinelOne，股票代码是S。这家市值近70亿美元的公司持续在网络安全市场获得关注。它的专长是终端安全，即保护连接到网络的单个设备。这家公司有趣的一点是，早在2021年6月IPO之前，在人工智能还没大火的时候，它就开始营销其AI能力了。

So the stock on my radar is SentinelOne. The ticker symbol is s. This is an almost $7,000,000,000 company that continues to gain traction in the cybersecurity market. Its specialty is endpoint security, which is the protection of individual devices that connect to networks. The The thing about one of the interesting things about this company is it's been marketing its AI capabilities since before its IPO in June 2021, before AI was seriously hot.

该股自高调IPO以来已有所回落，但公司仍预计年销售额增长约20%，并在2025财年最近实现了正向现金流。它将于5月28日公布财报，我想重新审视这家公司，听听管理层对未来愿景的表述。因为目前其估值更为合理，不到远期销售额的六倍，接近52周低点。

The stock has pulled back since its high flying IPO, and the company still expects to generate about 20% annual sales growth and recently turned cash flow positive in fiscal year twenty twenty five. So it re it also reports earnings on May 28, and I wanna revisit the company to hear what management has to say, in terms of its vision for the future. And that's because it trades at a much more reasonable valuation at just under six times forward sales, which is close to its fifty two week low.

丹，对SentinelOne有什么问题、评论，或者拐弯抹角的恭维吗？

Dan, a question, comment, or even a backhanded compliment about SentinelOne.

我是说，这是家网络安全公司。对我来说，这行业没什么光鲜亮丽可言，就是些基础技术活。不过他们总部在加州山景城，那可是美国不错的地方，这点没法黑。大卫，你觉得不够光鲜

I mean, it's a cybersecurity firm. Like, there's not exactly, I don't know, a whole lot of shine on that apple. It's just nuts and bolts to me personally. But, hey, they're located in Mountain View, California, which is a nice part of The United States, so can't hate that. David, not enough shine

是吧？

on the Apple for you.

你说得对，网络安全确实是个竞争激烈的市场。但有趣的是，这意味着各类竞争者都有生存空间。SentinelOne专注于终端安全，已经为自己开辟了一个不错的细分市场。随着它从现有客户和新增客户那里收集更多数据，其AI能力只会越来越强。

You're exactly right that cybersecurity is a very competitive market. But the interesting thing is that means there's room for all sorts of competitors. And with, SentinelOne focusing on the endpoint, they have carved themselves out a nice little niche. And as they continue to gather more data from the customers that it has as well as data from the new customers, its AI capabilities only get stronger.

博伊德老爸，你的关注名单上空间不多了。这周有什么要加入关注名单的？让我们先确定第一个，瑞奇。这就是本周电台节目的全部内容了，我是瑞奇·马尔维。

Dad Boyd, not a lot of room on your watch list. What's going on the watch list this week? Let's go set in the one, Ricky. That's gonna do it for this week's radio show. I'm Ricky Mulvey.

本期节目由丹·博伊德混音制作。感谢收听。

This show is mixed by Dan Boyd. Thanks for listening.