特拉维斯·凯尔西的六旗活动家角色与名人投资者的崛起

特拉维斯·凯尔塞在六旗乐园担任活动家角色。那我们接下来会有泰勒主题乐园吗？莫特利满仓启动。欢迎收听《莫特利傻瓜理财》，今天与我一起的是卢·怀特曼和雷切尔·沃伦。

Travis Kelce is taking an activist role at Six Flags. So are we gonna get Taylor World next? Motley full money starts down. Welcome to Motley Fool Money. I'm joined today by Lou Whiteman and Rachel Warren.

听着，过去24小时的大新闻是特拉维斯·凯尔塞担任活动家角色——至少六旗乐园的新闻标题是这么说的。实际上我认为Jana Partners才是主要资金支持者。不过卢，这事至少很有趣。

Look. The big news over the past twenty four hours has been Travis Kelce taking an activist role. At least that's what the headlines say at Six Flags. Jana Partners is actually the one, I think, fronting a lot of this money. But, Lou, this is at least interesting.

有趣之处在于，他确实有去六旗乐园的背景，但我们还有多莉·帕顿的多莉木乐园。接下来会是泰勒·斯威夫特建造自己的主题乐园吗？这会成为新趋势吗？

The the interest here is that, you know, he has a background going to Six Flags, but we also have Dolly Wood, Dolly Parton. Is this gonna be Taylor Swift building her own theme parks? Is that the is that the next thing here?

虽然不想承认，但这招可能真会奏效。对吧？不过不，绝对会有效。但我认为事情不是这么发展的。

I hate to say it. It would probably work. Right? But, no Absolutely, it would work. I I I don't think that's what's going here.

但说到底，我欣赏活动家。我整个职业生涯都在与活动家合作，很多时候所谓积极活动本质上就是公关 campaign。懂吗？你可以对公司有正确见解。

But look. At at the end of the day, I I love activists. I've I've worked with activists my whole career, and a lot of it is active activists is just a PR campaign at heart. Okay? You can have correct ideas about a company.

但若无法让这些观点传播出去，无法触及股东，即便你是对的仍会失败。所以总需要些吸引眼球的手段——常用夸张言辞、各种指控，方法多得很。

But if you can't get those ideas out into the world, into the, you know, to the shareholders, you're still gonna lose even if you're right. So there is always an element of trying to attract attention to yourself. A lot of times it's with, really over the top language. It's about accusations. There's a lot of ways to do it.

不过Jenna以前就启用过明星，他们找过NBA的德怀恩·韦德和投手CC·沙巴西亚对付Freshpet。著名的Starboard Value公司还用过沙奎尔·奥尼尔针对棒约翰。

But, look, Jenna has used celebrities before. They used Dwayne Wade to the NBA and, pitcher Cece Sabathia when they went after Freshpet. Famously, Starboard Value, another firm. They used Shaquille O'Neal to go to to go after Papa John's. That that at

至少看起来更成功。你知道，你在那些广告里看到奥尼尔了吗？

least seems more successful. I you know, do you see Shaq in those commercials?

好吧好吧，但是但是，你知道，这一切都行得通。是的。不。我是说，这只是处理问题的一种方式。我觉得你看看六旗乐园，这里非常适合搞活动。

Well well but but, you know, it it all works. And yeah. No. I mean, so this is just a way of going at it. I think if you look at Six Flags, very, very ripe for an activist here.

简直是一场灾难。股价今年以来下跌了50%。根本没人按预期数量去这些乐园玩。他们与雪松会做了笔大合并，本应解决这问题，但没成功。

They it's been a disaster. The stock's down 50% year to date. No one no one is going to these parks at the in the volumes that were supposed to. They did a major merger with Cedar Fair that was supposed to solve this. It didn't.

所以，你知道，雅娜，我不知道雅娜会不会说，你需要改进营销。你需要提升客户体验。某种程度上，六旗已经尝试过了。我们可以减少入园人数，但提供更好服务，让他们消费更多。我不确定这能否奏效，但这确实是经典的活动策略，只是带点斯威夫特风格的小变化。

So, you know, Jana, I I don't know if Jana wants to say, you need to improve marketing. You need to improve your customer experience. In a way, Six Flags already tried that. We could we're going to, you know, have fewer people coming through, but we are going treat them better, and they're gonna spend more. So I don't know if this will actually work, but I do think that this is just this is the classic activist campaign with just a little twist from, from the Swifty world.

是啊，瑞秋，这很有趣，因为名人或网红似乎更多地参与投资了。想想瑞安·雷诺兹，在创投圈里，他为他参与的业务带来了大量关注。他出现在广告里，懂吧？

Yeah. Rachel, this seems interesting in the sense that celebrities or influencers seem to be more involved in investing. I think Ryan Reynolds, if we go to more kind of the startup VC world, he's brought a lot of attention to the businesses that he's involved with. He's on the commercials. You know?

这暗示他是大股东。有时未必如此。魔术师约翰逊，你知道吗，我曾一度以为他真的拥有道奇队。其实他只持有2%左右的股份。

It's it's implied that he's a huge owner. Sometimes that's not necessarily the case. Magic Johnson, you know, I I I at one point thought he actually owned the Dodgers. He owns, like, 2% of the Dodgers. Right.

你看Jay Z，就是这样。他买下篮网队，其实只持有极小部分股权。他得到了场边座位。但这些名人确实带来了关注度。

You know, Jay Z, that was the thing. He bought the nets. He owned a teeny tiny portion of the nets. He got courtside seats. But, you know, the these celebrities do bring attention.

在像主题公园这样的注意力经济领域，这似乎是个能带来价值的优势。

And in an attention business like theme parks, that seems like a valuable thing to bring to the table.

是的。我是说，这是个极其聪明的营销策略，我们已看到众多公司效仿。对Jana Partners来说这并不新鲜，在这个领域也不新鲜。我是说，你甚至可以追溯更早。

Yeah. I mean, it's an incredibly smart marketing strategy that we have seen replicated by numerous firms. This is not new, you know, for Jana Partners. It's not new in in the space. I mean, you could also go back.

想想当年像电影明星乔治·克鲁尼这样的知名人物，就曾参与过类似Daniel Loweb十多年前针对索尼发起的维权运动。

You think about how well known figures like movie star George Clooney back in the day was involved in the activist campaigns like the one led by Daniel Loweb against Sony over a decade

前。

ago.

曾一度试图建造赌场。

Tried to build a casino at one point.

没错。所以这是我们之前见过的模式。但我要说对Jana Partners而言，Kelsey的加入确实是个精明的营销举措。正如Lou所说，他们在股东维权方面有非常成功的记录，推动过大型公司的重大变革。再举几个例子，比如他们入股全食超市。

Right. So this is something we we've seen before. But I I will say for Jana Partners, I think the the addition of Kelsey to this is a really smart marketing move. They have a very successful track record of shareholder activism as as Lou was talking about, and they've driven, you know, significant changes at major companies. A few other examples, you think about how they took a stake in Whole Foods.

在亚马逊最终收购该公司前，他们推动了变革。还记得吗？他们在2014年PetSmart被收购过程中也发挥了作用。我认为当前这个阶段非常需要这样的行动。是的。

They pushed for changes before Amazon ultimately acquired the company. Right? You know, they had a role in the acquisition of PetSmart back in 2014. And I think that this is something that is very much needed at this point in time. Yes.

你知道，Kelsey的存在感很强，但与此同时，对冲基金还从消费品和科技行业引进了经验丰富的高管来为市场营销、游客体验和技术改进提供建议。这正是六旗乐园目前急需的。要知道，他们正面临着巨额净亏损，负债超过50亿美元，其中很大一部分与Cedar Fair的合并案有关。

There's this, you know, presence of of Kelsey, but they also the hedge funds brought in experienced executives from consumer and tech industries to advise on improving marketing, you know, the guest experience, technology. This is very knee needed by Six Flags right now. You know, they are reporting steep net losses. They have over $5,000,000,000 in debt. A lot of that's tied to the Cedar Fair merger.

第二季度他们的入园人数下降了约9%，而那位作为合并案一部分从Cedar Fair调任过来的CEO已宣布将在2025年前卸任。因此Janna Partners确实可以在这里发挥作用，我认为这是关键要点之一。

They had a roughly 9% drop in attendance in the second quarter, and their CEO that had, come in from Cedar Fair as part of the merger, he he announced he's stepping down by the 2025. So there's a real role here for Janna Partners to play, and I think that's one of the key takeaways.

Lou，这类消息值得我们关注吗？六旗股价过去一周上涨了26%，但纵观过去五年，股价是下跌的。过去一年仍下跌了35%。所以激进投资者的举动是我们应该跟进的信号，还是对普通投资者而言只是噪音？

Lou, is this the kind of thing that we should be paying attention to? Six Flags stock up 26% over the past week, but you look out over the past five years, shares are down. Over the past one year, they're still down 35%. So is are are activists the kind of thing that we should kinda follow, or is this just kinda noise for for regular investors?

介于两者之间。要知道，像做空者这样的激进投资者确实扮演着重要角色。我认为需要具体问题具体分析，就像对待做空者一样。

Somewhere in the middle. You know, look. Activists like short sellers, I think, play an important role. I think it's case by case. Again, just like short sellers.

就本案而言，我认为目标对象选得合理。但解决方案是否合理、将如何演变，这需要每个投资者自行判断。我希望能听到Jana更多声音——要知道Celine Basu在Cedar Fair合并前就参与过类似行动，现在他们讨论的方案听起来和他当时做的很像，但当时并未奏效。所以我持保留态度，暂时不会跟风投资。

In this case, like I say, I do think that the target makes sense. Whether or not the solution makes sense or how the solution evolves, You know, that's something that an individual investor has to look at. I'm a little I wanna hear more from Jana here because like I say, Celine Basu was in here before the Cedar Fair merger and who's trying to do a lot of what he was doing sounds a lot like what they're talking about, and it didn't really work then. So I'm not convinced. Like, I'm I'm not ready to put my money into chasing this.

但总体而言，激进投资者在整顿急需改革的公司方面成效显著，这次的目标也确实选得不错。所以我会保持关注，看看事态发展。

But generally speaking, activists have done a lot of good work cleaning up companies that were in desperate need of it, and this does look like a good target. So I'm I'm curious to follow it and see how it develops.

至少我们可以考虑做个调研旅行，顺便坐几趟过山车。

At least it's something we could maybe do a research trip, go on a couple roller coaster rides.

我们开始吧，伙计们。

Let's do it, guys.

可能会为节目增添一些价值。

Might add some value to the show.

是的，但特拉维斯也欢迎一起来，对吧？

Yeah. But Travis is welcome to come along. Right?

稍后回来时，我们将讨论ChatGPT的新浏览器。您正在收听Motley Fool Money。欢迎回到Motley Fool Money。ChatGPT昨天推出了新浏览器ChatGPT Atlas。我有机会试用了它。

When we come back, we are gonna talk about ChatGPT's new browser. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. ChatGPT yesterday, introduced a new browser, ChatGPT Atlas. I had a chance to try this.

它并非在所有平台都可用，目前仅限Mac OS。但蕾切尔，我想从宏观层面聊聊——我们真的需要这个吗？现在的浏览器已经相当成熟了，差不多30年来基本形态都没怎么变。

It's not available everywhere, just Mac OS. But, Rachel, I just wanna go high level. Is this something that we need? Now the browser is pretty established. We're going on, what, 30 of it kind of looking the same.

我们已经把搜索栏等功能整合到地址栏里了。谷歌确实主导着这个市场，Chrome浏览器约占60%份额。他们虽然已经加入了许多AI功能，但AI并未完全接管。所以这个新产品会成功吗？还是说这只是OpenAI又一次的'撒网式尝试'？

We've moved things like the search bar into the actual, you know, the address line, so kind of melded those. Google really owns this market, something like 60% market share with the Chrome browser. They've already introduced a lot of AI features into it, but it isn't AI isn't taking over. So is this something that's gonna be successful, or is this just another spaghetti at the wall thing from OpenAI?

我认为现在下结论还为时过早。作为Mac用户，我非常想试用这个产品。我确实认为OpenAI正在尝试各种可能性，但同时也看得出他们在战略性地构建生态系统。目前我最感兴趣的是——这个浏览器的商业模式会是什么？

I think it's too soon to tell. As a Mac user myself, I'm very curious to try this one out. I haven't had a chance yet. I I do think that there is an element of OpenAI is trying all sorts of different things to see what sticks, but I also think that they are very strategically trying to build out their ecosystem. And I think one of the biggest things that I'm curious about right now is what would the business model be, right, for this browser?

我是说，有种观点认为可以采用混合模式，通过订阅服务和新型广告网络来盈利。浏览器就能实现这种模式。

I mean, there's kind of this idea that there could be a bit of a hybrid approach where they could make some money from subscriptions, from sort of a new type of advertising network. So the browser allows

我们几周前讨论过支付问题。看来他们想把这功能整合进来。如果拥有浏览器的话可能更容易实现。

We talked about payments a couple of weeks ago. So that seems like something they wanna integrate into this. Maybe it's easier if you own the browser.

我也这么想。你看浏览器能让OpenAI将AI直接嵌入用户的网页体验中，这样他们就能前所未有地获取宝贵的实时数据。这对广告商显然极具价值。我认为这种设计本质上就是以与传统搜索引擎截然不同的方式收集数据。

I think so. Well and you think about how the browser allows OpenAI to embed their AI right into the user's web experience. So that gives them unprecedented access to valuable real time data. That's obviously something that would be really valuable for advertisers. I think it's very much kind of designed to gather data in a way that's fundamentally different from traditional search engines.

我们已经看到他们正在与Shopify、Etsy等平台整合，用户或许能在聊天机器人里完成购物。但必须考虑到OpenAI目前的模型正在巨额亏损，所以他们正疯狂推进商业化。很多举措都源于此，或许会催生出真正有价值的工具。

And we're already seeing, you know, they're being integrated with platforms like Shopify and Etsy, so maybe users could complete purchases within, you know, the chat bot. But you have to think about the fact that OpenAI's model as it is right now is hemorrhaging costs and losses. And so they're on this very aggressive monetization push. And I think that's what a lot of this goes back to. Now we might see some really valuable tools come out of that.

对吧？但现在断言用户是否会广泛接受还为时过早。比如有多少人会从Chrome转用这个？这点我很怀疑。

Right? But I think it's far too soon to say whether this is gonna be something that's gonna be broadly adopted by users. I mean, how many of us are gonna switch from Chrome to this? That's what I'm not sure about.

没错。科技界有个共识：新产品必须比旧产品好十倍才能让人真正转换。Lou，我就是抱着这种心态试用Atlas的。说实话没怎么用就遇到多个弹窗要求升级付费版ChatGPT，这种体验很劝退。

Yeah. The the idea in tech is generally that the new product has to be 10 times better than the old product for people to actually switch. So, Lou, that was sort of the context in which I I started trying Atlas. And let me tell you, I didn't get very far, and I had multiple pop ups asking me to upgrade to a paid version or or an upgraded version of ChatGPT. That's the kind of thing that's gonna turn people off.

我理解Rachel说的他们在探索商业模式。但现有Chrome完全免费，本质上只是助力谷歌广告业务，给用户100%的消费者剩余。而这个塞了AI功能的新产品本质上做着同样的事，却变成了推销机器——真不确定这是用户想要的。

So I I appreciate it. Like Rachel said, they're trying to figure out their business model, but here you have Chrome that is free, that is basically just helping Google's ad business, and it's consumer it's a 100% consumer surplus. And then you have a new product that comes out that basically does the same stuff with AI stuck in it, and now they want you it it's sort of an upsell machine. I I just don't know if that's what people want.

真遗憾他们没能在半年前或一年前推出这个产品，那时候OpenAI还风光无限。对吧？嗯。那时候可能收获会更多，但现在我觉得光环已经褪去了。这是个策略调整，虽然我总在提OpenAI像个复读机，但我不是故意针对他们。

It's a shame they couldn't come out with this, I don't know, six months ago, a year ago when there was, like, all around OpenAI glittered. Right? Mhmm. And maybe you would have gotten more then, but I I I think that shine is off of it. This is a move and, like, I I I feel like a broken record here with OpenAI, and I don't mean to pick on them.

但他们所有的动作，从融资策略到产品发布，再到业务方向的调整（这本身无可厚非），都透露出绝望而非强势。这些举动可以理解。比如推出浏览器确实合理，但他们现在处于弱势——因为缺乏用户基础，需要主动争取客户。

But all of their moves, from their funding moves to what their products, their announcement, to kind of some of the pivots they may be doing in terms of what business they're chasing, which, you know, fine. But these are moves of desperation, not of strength. They're all understandable. And I do think, like, introducing a browser, it does make sense, but they are in a position of weakness because they don't have the customer right now. They are the ones trying to get the customer.

所以他们必须

So they have

你说他们缺乏用户？但他们明明有约500万付费用户啊。你的意思是谷歌拥有更庞大的...呃...业务规模？还是说

when you say they don't have the customer? Because they do have something like 5,000,000 paying customers. You're saying that, like, Google has a bigger Yeah. Business? Or or

谷歌早就万事俱备，只是逐步叠加这些功能。微软更是有庞大的Office套件，他们可以烦人地不断植入这些功能——说真的，每次打开Excel都弹出OpenAI提示让我很烦躁。OpenAI确实有用户，但他们是从零起步的。

It Google had all things ready to go, and they're just layering this in. Microsoft has its giant Office suite that they can just layer these in quite annoyingly, I might say. I'm not I'm I'm not enjoying having an OpenAI prompt every time I go into Excel, but, you know, it's there. Yes. OpenAI has customers, but they started from zero.

谷歌起步时就有数十亿用户。OpenAI需要填补巨大缺口才能站上起跑线，所以他们在不断尝试。但正如你所说——看看我电脑上的Firefox，

Google started from billions. So they need to backfill so much just to get to the starting line. So they're trying things. But to your point, I look. Firefox is sitting on my machine.

还有Bing。但我还是习惯性点开Chrome，要让我换浏览器，除非新产品能带来'哇，这简直好十倍'的体验，而不是'差不多'。从你的报告来看，我对现状挺满意的。

Bing is sitting on my machine. I still kinda just go to Chrome because I go to Chrome. It is going to take something that just, wow. This is a ton better, not just it is the same to get me to switch. From your report from your reports, I'm quite happy.

作为安卓和Windows用户，我不得不错过这些东西。我倒无所谓。不过，我确实不怪他们尝试这些。我也不觉得他们会很成功。

This is another thing that, little old me as an Android Windows users have to miss out on. That's fine with me. But, yeah, I I I I don't blame them for trying all this. I also don't think it's gonna be very successful.

瑞秋，我一直在想布莱恩·切斯基最近说的关于OpenAI和ChatGPT其实并非AI原生的话。我觉得时间会证明他这话的深意——虽然听起来有点爆炸性，但你知道，这只是个应用程序。它访问互联网，并不是新硬件。它带来的颠覆性远不如从个人电脑到iPhone，或是从大型机到个人电脑那种层级变革。

Rachel, the other thing I keep going back to is something Brian Chesky said recently about OpenAI and ChatGPT are actually not AI native. And and we'll see exactly what he means, I think, over time because that sounds sort of explosive, but, you know, it's an application. It's accessing the Internet. It's it's not it's not a new piece of hardware. It is not quite as disruptive or, you know, the the change is not the same as going from, you know, a PC to an iPhone or a mainframe to a PC, those kinds of disruptive layers.

这个领域根本谈不上颠覆性创新。他们只是把旧事物重新包装成自己的版本。所以我困惑的是——我们绕来绕去讨论的，到底是OpenAI试图将延续性创新包装成颠覆性创新？

This is an area where this is not really disruptive at all. It's just taking the old thing and making your own version of the old thing. So that's what I kind of struggle with here is seeing is this is this what we're dancing around is this is this just a sustaining innovation that OpenAI is trying to make into a disruptive innovation?

是啊。我是说，看看他们最近发布的产品，他们并没有 reinvent the wheel（ reinvent the wheel）。我认为他们整合了大量现有技术，试图用自家AI创新来改进。效果如何还有待观察。就拿我们刚讨论的浏览器例子来说——

Yeah. I mean, I I I don't think when you look at some of the, you know, products, right, if you will, that they've launched recently, it's not as though they're recreating the wheel. They're taking, I think, a lot of existing technology and presumably trying to make it better with their own AI innovations. And I think it kind of remains to be seen whether that's gonna be effective or not. I mean, you even take this example of of the browser that we've been talking about here.

这到底是OpenAI生态中独立的可盈利产品，还是为ChatGPT导流的销售漏斗？我觉得关于其最终形态和效果还存在很多未知数。但我要再次强调：他们必须找到更有效的盈利模式。

You know, is this its own, monetizable product within the broader OpenAI ecosystem, or is it gonna serve as a sales funnel back to ChatGPT? Right? I think there's still a lot of open questions as to what that's gonna look like and how effective it's gonna be. But, again, I I'm gonna stress. I mean, they need to monetize in a more effective way.

我们才刚刚开始看到雏形。他们正在推出各种产品，其中有些对我们来说很熟悉。比如搜索引擎并不新鲜。他们想测试能否做得更好，以及消费者是否买账。

I think we're really just starting to see what that's going to look like. I think they are rolling out all of these different products, some of which are, I think, quite familiar to us. Right? A search engine is nothing new. And I think they're trying to see if they can make it better and if consumers want that.

这仍是个未知数。

And that's a still we don't know.

也许我太愤世嫉俗了，但我很乐意。如果我能，比如，找到萨姆·奥尔特曼，关键时刻，一年前浏览器真的是优先事项吗？还是我们都知道有传言说Chrome将不得不作为Alphabet反垄断和解的一部分被拆分出来。

Maybe I'm being too cynical, but I would love to. If I could, like, get Sam Altman, moment of truth, was a browser really a priority a year ago, or was this something we all know that there was talk that Chrome would have to be split off as part of Alphabet's antitrust settlement.

哦，有意思。

Oh, interesting.

这感觉就像——我经历过太多董事会会议室里发生这种情况，你们开始讨论一个想法，那个想法某种程度上说得通，因为Chrome有现成的用户基础。对吧？你们本可以因此获得所有那些客户。但你们花了太多时间在那上面，结果却没成。然后突然间，那成了你们现在追逐的闪亮目标。

This feels like and I've been in so many boardrooms where this has happened, where you start talking about an idea, and that idea sort of made sense because Chrome had its ready made audience. Right? You would have gotten all those customers with that. But you spend so much time on that, and that didn't happen. And then suddenly, that is the shiny object you're chasing now.

所以就像，好吧。那我们需要自己打造浏览器了。我在想，如果没有那些讨论，浏览器是否真的会成为他们指引方向的北极星。我们永远无法知道。但我只是好奇有多少是事后诸葛亮，他们在讨论中自我说服拥有浏览器会有多棒。

So it's like, okay. We need to build our own browser then. I wonder, absent all of that talk, if browser would have really been like this the north star they would they were guiding towards. We'll never know. But I'm just kinda curious how much of it is after the fact with those discussions, them kind of talking themselves into how great it would be if they had a browser.

这些产品中必须有一个能成功，否则OpenAI将无法达到向投资者承诺的收入目标，而这万亿美元投入的基础就是他们真正实现盈利。所以我们将看到这对他们是助力还是阻碍。稍后回来，我们将讨论华纳兄弟探索可能不会分拆而是被收购。您正在收听Motley Full Money。欢迎回到Motley Full Money。

One of these products is gonna have to stick or OpenAI is not gonna meet the revenue targets that they have promised to investors, and that's what all of this trillion dollar build out is based on, is them actually turning this into revenue. So we will see if this is a help or a hindrance to that. When we come back, we are gonna talk about Warner Brothers Discovery potentially not splitting itself in two and getting bought out instead. You're listening to Motley Full Money. Welcome back to Motley Full Money.

华纳兄弟探索又上新闻了。现在有传言称Skydance——或者合并后的派拉蒙Skydance——有意收购该公司。听着，Lou，我们讨论这事很久了。这从各方面都说得通。虽然不一定能让公司盈利，或者你知道，这些业务将与流媒体巨头竞争。

Warner Brothers Discovery is back in the news. There are now rumors that Skydance is going to be or Paramount Skydance after that merger, is is interested in buying the company. Look, Lou, we've been talking about this one for a long time. It makes all the sense in the world. Doesn't necessarily make the company profitable or, you know, businesses that are gonna be competing with the giants in streaming.

但你从这件事中得出什么结论？

But what did you take away from this?

消息确实如传言所说——派拉蒙曾接触华纳兄弟但遭到拒绝。我认为有必要分别审视这两家公司，因为它们的动态截然不同。虽然不确定哪家现在值得投资，但都很有意思。华纳兄弟探索公司一团糟，而派拉蒙则来势汹汹。特拉维斯，你觉得该接哪把飞刀呢？

So the news is that definitely all the rumors are true, that that Paramount did approach Warner Brothers and they were rejected. And I think it's worth looking kind of both of these companies separately because there's kinda two separate dynamics going on. I don't know which one is investable right now, but they're both interesting. Warner Brothers Discovery is a mess, and Paramount is really being aggressive. And with I mean, which which knife do you wanna catch here, Travis?

对吧？派拉蒙意识到，尽管已投入数百亿资金，他们仍是二线玩家。他们的解决方案（我认为是正确的）不是砸钱打造下一个《怪奇物语》或《利刃出鞘》，而是试图整合二线市场。

Right? For Paramount, they realize that for all the billions they have and all the billions they've spent so far, they are still second tier. Their solution, and I think it's the correct one, they're not going to invest in so much content that they get the next stranger things. They get the next knives out. They are going to just try to consolidate the second tier.

他们有现金储备。这相当于在宣告'资金不会成为我们的障碍'

They have the cash to do it. So this is just them saying money is not going to stop us from

你说他们有现金时，是指拉里·埃里森在背后支持，这些资金实际上是

And when you say they have the cash, Larry Ellison is behind this and that the cash is actually be

拉里和他儿子。没错。在出现反证前，我相信这个项目会获得资金支持。

Larry and his son. Yes. Yes. And it's fine. Until I see otherwise, I think that this project will be funded.

至于华纳兄弟探索公司，问题只在于能卖什么价钱。合并前就运作失败，现在还在尝试流媒体——我们开玩笑说

Right? For Warner Brothers Discovery, it feels like a question of just what price can you get. This hasn't worked. It didn't work premerger. It it you know, even now, like, we're joking about this, they're trying streaming.

他们推出了CNN全接入服务。但讽刺的是，'全接入CNN'却不包含CNN频道的观看权限（除非是有线电视用户）。简直混乱不堪。我觉得交易迟早会发生，不管对象是派拉蒙-天舞还是网飞（虽然网飞声称没兴趣）。

They launched CNN All Access. But ironically, All Access CNN does not include access to CNN if you're not a cable customer. So they are just a mess. I feel like they there will be a deal here. Whether it's Paramount Skydance, Netflix says they're not interested.

我认为康卡斯特的Peacock可能与派拉蒙处境相似，所以他们可能会参与进来。

I think Comcast Peacock might be in a similar boat to Paramount, so maybe they get involved.

有一个

There's a

市面上有很多不良资产。所以有人想把它们整合起来。绝对是这样。瑞秋，你知道的，这里有什么想法？我想用一些数据来支撑这个观点。

lot of bad assets out there. So somebody somebody wants to put them all together. Absolutely. Rachel, you know, what's the thought here? Wanna I wanna put some numbers behind this.

华纳兄弟探索公司目前的企业价值为770亿美元，自由现金流40亿美元。他们有债务。我不确定。这看起来有很多‘如果’——如果这些公司都没有债务，情况会完全不同。但总得有人为此买单，难道只有拉里吗？

Warner Brothers Discovery has a $77,000,000,000 enterprise value as of today, $4,000,000,000 in free cash flow. They've got debt. I don't know. This this just seems like there's a lot of if if none of these companies had debt, we'd be having a different story, but, you know, somebody's gotta pay for all this. Is it just Larry?

我的意思是，这确实有可能。说实话，我认为这更多反映了媒体行业在少数大玩家之间的整合趋势。我看华纳兄弟探索时，总觉得它们作为更大实体的一部分会比两家独立上市公司更好。不过这个想法确实挺有意思，对吧？

I mean, it's it's possible. Honestly, I think if we're looking at this, this speaks a lot more to kind of the consolidation of the media industry amongst some of the few big players. I I kinda look at Warner Brothers Discovery, and I tend to think they're better as part of a bigger entity than two separate, you know, public companies. But it is kind of interesting to think about. Right?

一次重大收购确实可能重塑媒体格局。就像你提到的Netflix，他们说对传统资产不感兴趣，但会不会对剩余业务感兴趣呢？我认为这种可能性很大。康卡斯特可能会面临很高的反垄断障碍，但他们被视为强有力的潜在竞争者。

I mean, a major acquisition could really reshape the the media landscape. You know? And as you noted on Netflix, they've said, oh, we're not interested in the the legacy assets, but could they be interested in the remainder of the business? There is, I think, a strong case for that. I mean, Comcast would face some potential really high antitrust hurdles, but they've been seen as a really strong possible contender.

我认为还必须认识到，任何涉及收购华纳兄弟探索的交易（而非拆分）都可能引起美国政府的审查。这里面会涉及大量竞争和反垄断问题。所以如果真的走收购路线，这将比我们预期的拆分两家上市公司的方案要漫长得多。

I think also one has to recognize any kind of potential deal that would involve an acquisition versus the split of Warner Brothers Discovery. That's probably going to attract scrutiny from the US government. There's going be a lot of, you know, competition and antitrust concerns. So if in fact this goes the route of an acquisition, I think this is going to be a much longer term story than we would have expected if in fact, you know, the company is just split into two public entities.

虽然这不是投资建议，因为他们必须正确操作，但我确实认为整合这些二线或落后者有机会成功。派拉蒙虽不是独立服务，但我订阅了。他们确实拥有吸引人的资产。如果能整合这些，我认为这是加入Netflix和迪士尼顶级阵营的可行路径。问题在于执行。

So not investment advice because they have to do it right, but I actually do think that there is a successful play here from consolidating all of this second tier or also ran. Paramount is not a standalone service, but I subscribe. They do have assets that are of interest to people. If you can collect all of those, I do think that that is a viable path to joining Netflix and joining Disney in this top tier. The issue is execution.

并购确实非常困难且成本高昂。所以我自己目前在这个早期阶段没有投资兴趣，但我认为他们确实存在成功路径。我不知道华纳兄弟探索应用的成功路径是什么。

M and A is really tough, and it's really expensive. So I'm I'm not interested in investing myself right now at this early age, but I do think that there is a path to success there for them. I don't know what the path to success is for Warner Brothers Discovery app.

那么价格呢？要知道迪士尼有主题公园业务，拥有第二大流媒体服务，企业价值达2400亿美元。华纳兄弟探索770亿美元虽然很多，但业务正在下滑。

Well, what about price, though? Because, you know, Disney has the theme park business. They have, the second biggest streaming service. They're worth $240,000,000,000 from an enterprise value perspective. Warner Brothers Discovery, you know, 77,000,000,000 is a lot, and their their business is going down.

他们的业务正朝着错误方向发展。所以我并非不同意，但如果这些资产并不便宜。

Their their business is moving in the wrong direction. So I I don't disagree, but if these assets are not cheap.

这就是执行问题。对吧？实际操作比纸上谈兵困难得多。

That's the execution question. Right? You know, it it it it's harder to do. It looks a lot better on paper than it does

当这些资产正在缩水时，谁会愿意支付那么高的价格？这也是个问题。

And who's gonna wanna pay that much for those assets when they are dwindling as we see right now? That's also a question.

即使对拉里·埃里森这样的人来说，收购一家1000亿美元的公司也总是引人注目的。

Even for someone like Larry Ellison buying a $100,000,000,000 company is is always notable.

他们想要

They wanna

这并非无关紧要。

It's not nothing.

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