Waymo到底是什么？

Waymo到底是什么？

What is a Waymo anyway?

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金钱。

Money.

我是Travis Hoy。

I'm Travis Hoy.

和我一起的还有Rachel Warren和John Quast。

I'm joined by Rachel Warren and John Quast.

各位，我们今天必须聊聊Waymo。

Guys, we have gotta talk about Waymo today.

我们很久以来一直听到特斯拉等公司在谈论自动驾驶技术。

We've been hearing about autonomous driving from companies like Tesla for a very long time.

大约十年前，埃隆·马斯克曾宣称特斯拉汽车将能实现全美自动驾驶，这是其估值的重要依据。

It's about a decade ago that Elon Musk said that that Teslas were gonna be able to drive themselves across the country as a huge part of their valuation.

但特斯拉至今仍困在奥斯汀的测试阶段，而Waymo正稳步接管无人安全员的自动驾驶汽车市场。

But they've been stuck in test mode in Austin, and slowly but surely, Waymo is really taking over this autonomous vehicle market with no safety driver.

这是个重要的前提条件。

That's a big caveat here.

我认为在假期周期间，这确实是个值得深入探讨的有趣话题。

And that's what I think is really interesting and worth sort of diving into as we have this holiday week.

这周新闻有点少。

It's a little bit of a slow news week.

所以我们来聊聊可能对许多不同公司产生重大影响的事情。

So let's talk about something that could be really impactful to a lot of different companies.

Waymo已经完成了超过25万次载客服务，顺便说一下，这个数据是大约八个月前的，所以现在可能远远不止这个数字。

Waymo's completing over 250,000 rides that by the way, that stats about eight months old at this point, so it's probably significantly more than that.

Rachel，想从你开始。

Rachel, wanna start with you.

Waymo是否在自动驾驶汽车市场已经领先其他尚未真正起步的竞争者？

Is Waymo already winning the autonomous vehicle market before anyone else really gets off the ground?

我认为目前来说，是的。

I think for now, yes.

他们拥有显著的优势。

They have a significant lead.

正如你所指出的，Waymo正在向公众提供完全无人驾驶的乘车服务。

You know, as you noted, Waymo's offering fully driverless rides to the public.

这已经在旧金山、洛杉矶、凤凰城等主要城市展开，而且服务范围还在不断扩大。

And this is in major cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and the list keeps growing.

他们一直采取这种循序渐进部署的稳健策略。

And there's been this very consistent strategy of methodical deployment.

另一方面，正如你提到的，特斯拉的公共服务即使在奥斯汀，每辆车仍需配备人类安全驾驶员。

On the other hand, you know, Tesla's public service even in Austin, as you noted, requires human safety drivers to be present in every vehicle.

这其中确实存在一些关键原因。

And there's some really key reasons for this.

我们之前讨论过这个问题，但值得再次提及，Waymo和特斯拉在自动驾驶车辆或自动驾驶方法上采用的是完全不同的系统。

And we've talked about this in the past, but it's worth mentioning, you know, Waymo and Tesla operate on completely different systems when it comes to their autonomous vehicles or their approach to autonomy.

对吧？

Right?

Waymo采用的是这套全面的传感器组合。

So Waymo uses this comprehensive, sensor suite.

包括多个激光雷达单元、雷达和大量摄像头。

It includes multiple LIDAR units, radar, numerous cameras.

通俗来说，这意味着它能在各种条件下实现高效运行，尽管单车成本较高。

And basically what that means in layman's terms is it allows for really effective operations in a wide range of conditions, even though it comes at a higher per vehicle cost.

而另一方面，特斯拉则完全依赖纯视觉方案。

Now on the flip side of that, Tesla relies on a vision only approach.

他们仅使用八个摄像头。

So they use just eight cameras.

通过各类神经网络来模拟人类视觉。

They use various neural networks to replicate human vision.

埃隆·马斯克曾说过，激光雷达是个拐杖，他们更倾向于这种更便宜、类人的方法。

Elon Musk has as previously said that LIDAR is a crutch, that they prefer this cheaper human like approach.

但迄今为止，Waymo的方法已被证明更为有效，并能实现更快更广泛的部署。

But so far, Waymo's approach has proven to be far more effective and allowed for much faster and broader deployment.

还有最后一点，Waymo会以毫米级精度细致地绘制运营城市的每一寸土地。

You know, one final thing as well, Waymo meticulously maps every inch of its operational cities down to millimeter precision.

我认为这使他们能够以极快的速度部署，事故率极低，并且这种方式得到了消费者的认可。

And that is something that I think is allowing them to deploy at a very fast rate, with minimal incidents and in a way that's resonating with consumers.

我认为这目前让他们处于行业领先地位。

And I think that that so far is putting them ahead of the pack.

未来十年这种情况会改变吗？

Will that change in the next decade?

有可能，但目前他们无疑是这个领域的领导者。

It's possible, but certainly right now they're the leader in this space.

约翰，他们是否正在建立不可逾越的领先优势？随着部署更多车辆和降低成本？

John, are we at the point where they're building an insurmountable lead and as they deploy more vehicles, as they reduce their cost?

我们稍后再讨论成本问题，因为这很重要。

We'll talk about the cost side in just a second because that is important.

但这是否意味着其他公司有机会追赶上来，还是他们已经遥遥领先了？

But is this something where somebody else can catch up or a number of other companies can catch up or are they that far ahead?

不。

No.

我不认为这种领先优势是不可逾越的，特拉维斯。

I don't believe that the lead is insurmountable, Travis.

其实我一开始就想反驳你提问的前提——他们是否真的具有领先优势。

I really wanted to push back on you on the premise of the question in the first place, whether or not they had a lead.

哦，天啊。

Oh, man.

对吧？

Right?

但是

But as

我研究了相关数据，Waymo在此领域确实领先这一点无可否认。

I researched the show, it's pretty undeniable that Waymo does have a lead here.

我认为所有数据都指向这一点。

I think that all the stats do point to that.

我觉得很难证明Waymo没有处于领先地位。

I think you make a really hard case that Waymo would not be in the lead.

我认为确实如此。

I think it is.

但我对现阶段领先的重要性持保留意见。

But I would push back on the significance of being in the lead at this stage of the game.

根据我看到的数据，目前美国只有不到1%的人体验过无人驾驶出租车。

The stats that I saw, less than 1% of the population has even taken a ride in a driverless taxi at this point in The US.

按照技术扩散定律，我们仍处于早期采用者阶段。

So according to the law of diffusion of technology, we're still in the early adopter phase.

这意味着像特斯拉、优步，甚至亚马逊旗下的Zoox等公司，在进入早期大众采用阶段前仍有充足时间追赶。

So that means that companies such as Tesla, Uber, even Amazon with Zoox, they all still have plenty of time to catch up before we get to the early majority phase of adoption.

我认为领先优势真正重要的阶段是在那个时期。

I think that's where a lead really matters is in that stage of the game.

目前我们还处于非常早期的阶段。

Right now, we're still really early.

还有时间可以追赶。

There is time to catch up.

让我们来谈谈这个问题。

Let's get to that.

我想你特别提到特斯拉，主要是指成本方面和规模化的问题。

I I think what you're alluding to with Tesla in particularly is the cost side of things and then scale.

他们基本上可以一键切换，通过更新车辆系统，就能让美国数十万辆汽车实现完全自动驾驶。

They could potentially flip a switch, essentially update their their vehicles and be fully autonomous for hundreds of thousands of vehicles in The US.

而Waymo一直面临的质疑就是他们的车辆太昂贵。

And the pushback on Waymo has always been that their vehicles are too expensive.

至少几年前的数据显示，他们的车辆成本高达25万美元。

The estimates at least a couple of years ago was they were $250,000.

现在可能更低了。

That's probably lower now.

我看到最近的估计显示，在他们建设完这个设施后，成本大约是15万，甚至可能降到10万。

I've seen more recent estimates that it's more like 150, maybe even 100,000 after they built out this facility.

我想是在亚利桑那州。

I think it's in Arizona.

他们现在也在测试极氪车辆。

They also are now testing Zeeker vehicles.

这是一家中国制造商为Waymo定制生产的车辆，现已在圣地亚哥的道路上出现。

That's a Chinese manufacturer making a custom made vehicle for Waymo that has been now seen on the roads in San Diego.

但特斯拉先解决了成本问题，却尚未解决技术问题。

But Tesla answered the cost question first, but has not answered the tech question.

他们的技术是否足够安全，能够真正撤掉安全驾驶员且不发生事故？

Are they gonna be safe enough to actually pull that safety driver and not have accidents?

Waymo采取了相反的策略，先解决技术问题和安全问题，成本问题留待后续解决。

Waymo took the opposite approach, answering the tech question, the safety question, and then the cost question will come later.

那么，约翰，这最终会是正确的答案吗？还是说成本方面仍有太多不确定因素？

So, John, is that gonna ultimately be the right answer or is that just too much that's to be determined from a cost side?

我是说，我又知道什么呢，特拉维斯？

I mean, what do I know, Travis?

这场辩论的两边都有一些非常聪明的人。

There are some really smart people on both sides of this argument.

我认为这两种方法都有其合理之处。

I think you can make a good case for either approach.

我要说的是这个。

What I will say is this.

我确实认为快速扩展的解决方案在这个领域很重要，因为无论你是谁，我想我们都认同这个市场——自动驾驶出租车领域——将以惊人的速度扩展。

I do think that fast scaling solutions will matter in this space because no matter who you are, I think that we have agreement that this market, that the autonomous taxi space will scale incredibly fast.

一旦它开始获得一些势头，就会被非常快速地采用。

It will be adopted really fast once it starts gaining some momentum.

只说一个数据，根据《财富》商业洞察的数据，美国这个市场预计将从2022年的10亿美元增长到2031年的超过1000亿美元。

Just one statistic, according to Fortune Business Insights, The US market for this is supposed to go from 1,000,000,000 in 2022 to over a 100,000,000,000 in 2031.

这个预测会完全准确吗？

Will that be exactly correct?

很可能不会。

Probably not.

但方向性上会是正确的吗？

But will it be directionally correct?

大概率是的。

Most likely.

因此快速扩展的解决方案将至关重要。

And so a fast scaling solution will matter.

这似乎对特斯拉有利，但我也不能低估Waymo降低成本的能力。

It does seem like this could favor Tesla, but I wouldn't count out Waymo's ability to drive down cost either.

Rachel，你怎么看？

Rachel, do you think?

你更倾向于先回答安全问题，然后再说'成本问题我们稍后再解决'吗？

Would you rather answer the safety question first and then say, know what, we'll figure out costs later?

你提到了他们拥有的所有这些传感器。

You mentioned all these sensors that they have.

我们可能会达到可以大量移除这些传感器的阶段。

We could potentially get to the point where you just take a bunch of those out.

这有点像我的工程背景思维。

This is kind of the way I I have an engineering background.

如果你在造飞机，你会希望零故障，然后再说降低成本的事，而不是说我们造了架很便宜的飞机，但它时不时会坠毁。

If you're building a plane, right, you wanna have zero failures in your plane and say, I'll take some cost out later rather than saying, we got a really cheap plane, but it crashes every once in a while.

但是嘿，它没花我们太多钱。

But, hey, it didn't cost us too much.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为你说得非常到位，特拉维斯，因为这就是Waymo采取的策略，而且我认为它非常有效。

I think you made the point perfectly, Travis, because that's the approach Waymo has taken, and I think it has been incredibly effective.

你知道，他们确实优先开发了最先进、最安全的技术，首先瞄准了四级和五级自动驾驶。

You know, they have really prioritized developing the most advanced and safest technology first aiming for level four and five autonomy.

这实际上意味着你专注于为商业叫车服务设计的强大系统，其中安全是首要考虑因素。

And that really means you're focusing on robust systems that are designed for a commercial ride hailing service or safety is paramount.

而且成本可以，你知道，分摊到整个车队而非单个买家身上，至少初期是这样。

And then costs can, you know, be amortized over a fleet rather than individual buyers, at least initially.

这里的赌注在于，一旦技术得到验证，大规模生产自然会降低成本。

And the bet there is that once the technology is proven, mass production will naturally bring costs down.

如果采取相反的策略，很可能会陷入关键安全问题频发的境地，最终反而会推高整体成本。

If you reverse strategy there, you can very much end up in a situation where there are key safety concerns, which inflate your costs over time anyway.

我认为这正是我们在特斯拉的运营模式中看到的问题之一。

And I think that's been one of the problems we've seen, with Tesla's approach.

我并不是说他们最终无法在这场竞争中获胜。

I'm not saying that they can't, you know, win in the game eventually.

值得注意的是，Waymo确实在某些方面具有优势。

And it's worth noting, Waymo does have an advantage for a few reasons.

它起源于大约二十年前谷歌的自动驾驶项目。

It originated right from Google's self driving project almost two decades ago.

作为Alphabet家族的一员确实具有优势。

There's that advantage of being a part of, you know, the Alphabet family.

但我认为很大程度上要归因于他们的策略。

But I think a lot of it goes back to their, approach.

尽管特斯拉一直强调要优先通过成本优先的技术迭代策略，以更低价格将技术交到消费者手中。

And even though Tesla has really said, look, we wanna prioritize getting the technology into consumers' hands at a lower price point using that cost first tech incremental strategy.

到目前为止，这种策略并未真正见效。

So far that approach isn't really bearing out.

我是说，我们十多年来一直在听特斯拉关于自动驾驶技术的承诺。

I mean, we've been hearing the promises of what Tesla's technology is going to be, where it pertains to autonomous vehicles for over a decade.

而迄今为止进展非常缓慢。

And so far it's been a very slow journey.

他们能迎头赶上吗？

Can they catch up?

当然。

Absolutely.

但我认为还有很多需要验证的地方，你知道的，哪种方法最成功。

But I think there's a lot still to be proven out, you know, which approach is most successful.

但目前看来，Waymo似乎是赢家。

But right now, Waymo seems to be the winner here.

约翰，我想知道你是否认为这是一个转折点。

John, I wanna know if you think this is a turning point.

真正引发我这次讨论的是，我住在明尼阿波利斯地区，但他们宣布的这些地方至少是他们开始进行安全测试的地点。

And what really brought on this discussion for me, I live in the Minneapolis area, but these are the announcements that they made for where they're at least starting to do their safety tests.

他们开始进行地图测绘。

They're starting to do their mapping.

这里的进展流程是，他们会进入一个城市，进行大量地图测绘，确认所有系统都能正常运行。

Kind of the progression here is that they'll go into a city, do a bunch of mapping, kinda confirm that all their systems work.

然后几个月后，你就能真正启动商业运营了。

And then a number of months later, you actually launch a commercial operation.

从他们首次进入城市到所谓的公路测试，再到真正将商用车辆推向市场，这段时间已经开始压缩。

That time has started to compress from when they first go to city to what they call a road trip to when they actually bring commercial vehicles to market.

但这些只是他们宣布在11月份即将进入的城市。

But these are their announcements of where they're going just in the month of November.

底特律、圣地亚哥、拉斯维加斯、坦帕、新奥尔良和明尼阿波利斯。

Detroit, San Diego, Las Vegas, Tampa, New Orleans, and Minneapolis.

西雅图是他们名单上的另一个城市。

Seattle's another one of the cities they have on the list.

他们现在正向北部地区推进。

They're now moving north into areas where look.

今天早上明尼阿波利斯下雪了。

It snowed this morning in Minneapolis.

就在我们录音时，Waymo的车辆正行驶在明尼阿波利斯市中心。

There are Waymo's on the road in Downtown Minneapolis right now as we're recording.

这似乎表明他们正在进军许多其他公司甚至还未考虑涉足的领域。

That seems like they're scaling into areas where a lot of these other companies aren't even thinking about playing yet.

嗯，特拉维斯，我认为这再次印证了

Well, again, Travis, I think it speaks to what

我们刚才所说的观点。

we were just saying.

从趋势来看，自动驾驶出租车将越来越多地出现在道路上，使用它们的人也会增加，技术也在不断进步。

Directionally, this is heading in a direction where there will be more autonomous driving taxis out on the road, and there will be more people using them, and the technology is getting better.

因此我们讨论过，未来几年美国这一产业规模将达到1000亿美元。

And so we talk about this scaling to a $100,000,000,000 industry in The US in coming years.

我是说，是的，看起来我们正朝着那个方向前进。

I mean, yeah, it looks like we are heading towards that destination.

不过我要再次强调，我认为这再次凸显了这两家公司的成本确实需要下降，无论是特斯拉还是Waymo。

Again, though, I'll reiterate, I think that underscores once again that this cost do need to come down for both of these companies, whether it's Tesla or whether it's Waymo.

它们确实都需要一个成本效益高的解决方案，因为当你扩大规模却仍然不具备成本效益时，是的，这会成为问题。

They both do need a cost effective solution because as you ramp it up and you're still not cost effective, I mean, yeah, it's gonna be an issue.

在一个经济模式糟糕的行业中争当第一有什么意义呢？

What is the point of being first in an industry that has bad economics?

我可以举航空业作为一个很好的例子。

I I can think about airlines for a good example here.

许多航空公司的经济效益都很糟糕。

So many airlines have bad economics.

但这并不意味着所有航空股都不值得投资。

It doesn't mean that there's all bad airline stocks.

对吧？

Right?

你可以在航空业找到好的投资机会，但总体而言，这个行业深受严峻经济形势的困扰。

You can have a good investment in the airline industry, but by and large, the industry is plagued by very tough economics.

我认为自动驾驶出租车行业目前也处于类似境地。

I think that we're still there for autonomous taxis.

出租车。

Taxis.

因此其中至少有一方面需要改进，才能成为一个值得大众投资的好项目。

And And so so one of these does need to improve for it to be a good investment for people out there.

是的。

Yeah.

我们支付的价格对许多这类公司来说至关重要。

The price that we pay is gonna be really important for a lot of these companies.

我喜欢说的一句话是：不要为不存在的上涨潜力买单。

One of the things I like to say is don't pay for upside that doesn't exist.

有时候在商业中，你认为即将到来的上涨潜力其实并不存在。

And then sometimes in business, the upside that you think is coming isn't there.

可能自动驾驶领域的一些公司就会面临这种情况。

Maybe that will be the case for some companies in autonomy.

我们目前主要讨论了Waymo，但这个市场上还有其他参与者。

We focused on Waymo here so far, but there are other players in this market.

我们马上就会谈到它们。

We're gonna get to them in just a second.

您正在收听的是Motley Full Money。

You're listening to Motley Full Money.

欢迎回到Motley Full Money。

Welcome back to Motley Full Money.

目前还有其他公司从事自动驾驶技术。

There are other companies in autonomous driving technology today.

Rachel，你能简单介绍一下我们应该关注哪些公司吗？

Rachel, can you just give us an idea who are the companies that we should be watching?

因为这份名单看起来真的很长。

Because it seems like the list is really long.

你开始研究就会发现，每家公司在自动驾驶领域都有某种战略。

You start looking at it and everybody has some sort of strategy in the space.

是的。

Yeah.

要知道，这个领域有太多可以参与的方式。

You know, there's so many ways to play the space.

我们已经详细讨论过Waymo以及他们可能的商业模式是什么样的。

I mean, we've talked a lot of course about Waymo and what their business model could be and looks like.

但有许多公司在这个行业中采取了更为细分或模块化的策略。

But there are a lot of companies that take a much more niche or modular approach to this industry.

比如，Aurora Innovation就是一个例子。

You know, Aurora Innovation is one example.

他们专注于开发一套通用的自动驾驶系统，称之为Aurora驾驶系统。

So they focused on developing a universal self driving system, which they call the Aurora driver.

这主要应用于长途货运车辆。

And that's primarily for long haul trucking vehicles.

还有像Mobileye这样的公司。

You've got companies like Mobileye.

对吧？

Right?

他们是高级驾驶辅助系统技术的领先供应商。

They're a leading provider of advanced driver assistance systems technology.

当然，这是许多公司正在努力实现更高级别自动驾驶的关键基础。

Of course, that's a key foundation for higher levels of autonomous driving that a lot of these companies are working towards.

不过，你也可以通过投资英伟达这样的公司来布局这个领域。

But, you know, you can play the space as well by investing in a company like NVIDIA.

对吧？

Right?

你知道的，这家高端芯片制造商提供了许多自动驾驶开发者正在使用的高性能处理能力和人工智能平台。

You know, the high end chipmaker that's providing all the essential high performance processing power and AI platforms that a lot of these AV developers are using.

有一家叫小马智行的公司。

There's a company called Pony AI.

他们是家自动驾驶技术公司。

They're an autonomous driving tech company.

他们正在开发自动驾驶出租车和卡车货运服务。

They're developing robotaxi and robotic trucking services.

我认为把目光投向美国以外也很重要。

I think it's really important as well to look outside The US.

比如中国的科技巨头百度。

So you've got Baidu, the the Chinese tech giant.

他们凭借阿波罗出行服务成为中国自动驾驶出租车领域的领军企业。

They're a leader in the robotaxi race in China with their Apollo Go service.

他们正在向商用自动驾驶领域扩展业务。

They're expanding into commercial AVs.

中国的自动驾驶采用率远高于美国市场。

China is a market where adoption of AVs is much, much higher than we are seeing in The US.

我认为这一点非常关键。

So that's something that's I think really critical.

很多车辆都默认配备这项技术。

It's a default in a lot of their vehicles too.

确实如此。

It is.

而且他们拥有一个快速发展的国内自动驾驶市场。

And, again, they have this very rapidly developing domestic AV market.

政府提供了广泛支持，因此建立了许多监管框架。

There's broad government support, so you've got a lot of regulatory guardrails in place.

我们在欧洲也看到自动驾驶汽车的法律和监管框架正在更广泛地建立。

We're also seeing a broader establishment of legal and regulatory frameworks for AVs in Europe too.

所以这是值得关注的重要趋势。

So that's something that's important to watch.

因此有无数种方式可以参与这个领域。

So there's a million different ways to play this.

对吧？

Right?

你有传统车企，比如梅赛德斯-奔驰集团。

You've got the legacy, you know, companies like Mercedes Benz Group.

他们拥有自己的Drive Pilot系统。

They've got their, Drive Pilot.

这是德国某些州批准道路上使用的首个三级自动驾驶系统。

That was the first level three system that was certified for use on approved roads in certain states in Germany.

顺便说，我想稍等一下

By the way, I wanna hold on

那个。

that.

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这让人震惊。

I think this shocks people.

他们实际上是首个达到三级标准的车企，这意味着如果发生事故，责任将由汽车制造商或车辆本身承担。

They were actually the first level three goes to the point where the automaker, the vehicle itself is liable if there's a crash.

他们在特斯拉之前就做到了，比那些整天谈论自动驾驶的公司都要早。

They did that before Tesla, before any of these other companies that are talking about autonomy.

是梅赛德斯-奔驰。

It was Mercedes Benz.

这总是让我感到不可思议，因为你根本不会想到他们在这个领域居然能领先，但他们确实是首个达到三级标准的。

That just always kinda blows my mind because you don't think of them as even a player in this space, but they were at at least level three first.

完全正确。

Absolutely.

我认为很少有人讨论这一点，甚至可能意识到这一点。

And I think very few people are are talking about that or might even be aware of that.

当然，你知道，亚马逊有他们的Zoox机器人出租车服务。

And, you know, of course, you've got, you know, Amazon, they've got their their Zoox robotaxi service.

目前这项服务的部署范围还非常非常有限。

That's been a very, very limited deployment at this point.

但我想归根结底，这个领域有太多新兴机会，特别是在美国以外的市场，比如中国和欧洲，那里有更完善的监管框架，我认为这为美国市场提供了某种指引，预示着未来十年及以后可能的发展方向。

But I think the bottom line here is there are so many different opportunities in this space that are just emerging, looking in different markets outside The US where there's a much more developed regulatory framework like in China and what we are starting to see in Europe, I think provides something of a guide for the market in The US and what that could look like in the coming decade and beyond.

约翰，我想提到的另一家公司是文远知行。

The other company I wanna bring into this, John, is WeRide.

他们今早刚宣布将在阿布扎比撤掉安全驾驶员，这是与优步合作的项目。

They actually announced this morning that they're pulling the safety driver in Abu Dhabi that is in a partnership with Uber.

我们马上会谈到网约车公司，但你在寻找这个领域的投资机会时主要关注哪些方面？

We'll get to the ride sharing companies in just a second, but where are you fishing when you're looking for opportunities in this space?

因为瑞秋提到的一些公司技术确实很有趣，但如果我们有四、五、六家科技公司都能提供这种技术并胜出的话。

Because some of the companies that Rachel mentioned, really interesting technology, but if we have four or five, six tech companies that are providing this technology that win.

它们中有赚钱的吗？

Do any of them make money?

但谁拥有正确的人脉和适合当下的商业模式？

But who has the right connections, right business model for this moment?

在这个领域，我觉得Mobileye这家公司非常有意思，股票代码是MBLY。

One of the companies I I really find interesting in this space is Mobileye, ticker symbol m b l y.

我认为它如此有趣的原因在于它拥有所有这些附加的硬件和软件用于地图测绘，并且正在收集海量数据。

The the reason I think it's so interesting is because it has all this add on hardware and software when it comes to mapping, and it's collecting just so much data.

就我们讨论的快速扩展而言，我认为数据至关重要。

When it comes to what we're talking about here, rapidly scaling, I think data is important.

我认为这很有价值。

I think it's valuable.

所以这不是最抓眼球的头部公司。

And so this isn't the most headline grabbing company out there.

它并非显而易见的选择。

It's not a no brainer.

我并不是说这是显而易见的选择，但我认为Mobileye在未来多种可能性中非常有趣。

I'm not saying it's a no brainer, but I find Mobileye very interesting for a variety of possible futures here.

他们也是那种

They are also the company that was kind

默认实现她所谓一级自动驾驶的公司。

of the default for what she would call level one autonomy.

比如智能跟随、车道保持辅助这类功能。

So smart following, lane assist, things like that.

他们正试图向更高层级发展。

And they're sort of trying to move up that stack.

嗯，这也是我感兴趣的。

Well, that's what I'm interested in as well.

我是Mobileye的股东。

I'm I'm a shareholder of Mobileye.

所以我们拭目以待他们后续的发展。

So we will see how that plays out with them.

我们回来后，将讨论未来自动驾驶如何可能改变拼车服务。

When we come back, we are gonna talk about how ride sharing could potentially change with autonomy in the future.

您正在收听的是Motley Fool Money节目。

You're listening to Motley Fool Money.

欢迎回到Motley Fool Money节目。

Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.

我认为目前受到质疑的商业模式之一就是拼车业务模式。

One of the business models that I think is in question right now is the ride sharing business model.

所以我们正在考虑优步和Lyft这类公司。

So we're thinking about Uber and Lyft.

你可以通过DoorDash等平台获取外卖送餐服务。

You can go to DoorDash for things like food delivery.

但是，约翰，这些公司会成为自动驾驶领域的赢家吗？

But, John, are these the kind of companies that are gonna be winners in autonomy?

这是否有助于改善他们的供应，可能降低他们的成本，就像我们之前讨论过的那样。

Does this help improve their supply, potentially lower their costs, something that we've talked about.

优步曾提到要实现每英里一美元的成本目标，这将比当前水平提升50%至70%。

Uber has talked about getting to a dollar a mile, which should be a 50 to 70% improvement from where we are today.

这对这些公司未来十年会是顺风助力还是逆风阻力呢？

Is that gonna be a tailwind for these companies or a headwind over the next decade?

我认为第三方聚合平台将会持续存在。

I think the third party aggregators are here to stay.

像优步、DoorDash、Instacart这些平台，我认为它们会长期存在。

So your your Ubers, your DoorDashes, your Instacarts, I think they're here to stay.

未来新技术上线后确实有可能颠覆它们。

There is a possible future in which the new technology comes online and disrupts them.

我能理解这个观点，但我确实认为它们会持续存在。

I can see that point, but I do believe that they're here to stay.

我以爱彼迎为例说明。

I'll use Airbnb as an example here.

如果你拥有一套短期度假租赁房产，你可以直接对接终端消费者。

If you own a short term vacation rental, you can go direct to the consumer.

你可以拥有自己的网站。

You can have your own website.

你可以建立自己的邮件列表。

You can have your own mailing list.

你可以做所有这些事情，而且许多度假房产所有者确实建立了系统来收集这些消费者数据并绕过Airbnb，这样他们可以赚更多钱，不用给Airbnb分成。

You can do all of this, and many of your vacation property owners do have systems in place to collect this consumer data and to bypass Airbnb so that they can make more money and not give Airbnb its take rate.

然而，总的来说，这些房产仍然留在Airbnb上，因为那里才是消费者的聚集地。

However, by and large, these properties remain on Airbnb because that is where the consumer is.

那里才是旅行者的聚集地。

That is where the traveler is.

无论你多么努力想要摆脱它，即使你是一个非常好的房产，你也无法避免使用它。

And as much as you try to get away from it, you can't avoid it even if you're a really good property.

因此，我真的认为这将是这个领域的发展轨迹。

And so I really see that being kind of your trajectory of where this space is going.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为大家都会想尝试摆脱第三方聚合平台，但从实际操作来看，我不认为他们能做到。

I think that everyone's gonna want to try to move away from the third party aggregators, but getting away from it in practical terms, I I don't think they're gonna be able to.

需要指出的是，像优步和Lyft这些公司至少公开表示过，他们认为未来市场不会由个人车主主导，不会出现你买辆特斯拉然后让它出去跑几小时赚外快的情况。

And just to point out how these companies, the the Ubers and the Lyfts in particular, are at least saying they're thinking about this is they think that the market is not gonna be individuals owning vehicles and then just letting your Tesla go out and drive around for few hours to make a few bucks.

未来将是车队运营商的时代。

There's gonna be fleet operators.

这就是他们实际运营车队的方式。

So this is the way that they're actually operating their fleets.

优步和Lyft在某些与Waymo合作的城市都在做类似的事情——由拥有10辆、20辆或100辆车的运营商集中管理，配套充电、清洁等基础设施。

Uber and Lyft both are kinda doing some similar things for Waymo in some cases in the cities where they're partnering, where there's gonna be an owner of ten, twenty, a 100 vehicles, then there's gonna be infrastructure in place to charge them, to clean them out, do all that kind of stuff.

但主体不太可能是个人车主。

But it's not necessarily gonna be individuals.

背后会是专业的企业化运作。

It's gonna be kind of businesses behind the scenes.

Rachel，你觉得这个趋势合理吗？未来供应商将从个人转向小型企业甚至大型企业，但聚合平台（Lyft、DoorDash、优步这些）仍会存在。

Rachel, does that make sense to you that we're gonna move from they're gonna be still the aggregators, the Lyfts, the DoorDashes, the Ubers of the world, but then the suppliers is gonna go from individuals to maybe small businesses, maybe, you know, maybe bigger business.

或许投资这些共享出行的供应商会成为一项公共选择。

Maybe that'll be a public option to invest in these suppliers to ride sharing.

但你是如何看待这个潜在链条的？

But how are you thinking about that potential chain?

我认为在某种程度上，确实如此，而且我认为在未来十年及以后，我们会看到像你描述的那样的新商业模式出现。

I think to a certain extent, and I do think over the next decade and past that we do start to see new business models emerge like you've outlined.

我也确实认为像Waymo这样的公司显然对其业务具有颠覆性因素。

And I do think a company like Waymo clearly has a disruptive element to its business.

但我认为它不会突然取代我们所熟知的Uber和Lyft等公司的使用场景。

But I don't think we suddenly see it replace the use cases that we know companies like Uber and Lyft for.

你知道，我不认为我们会突然面临一种情况，人们只会乘坐无人驾驶车辆的后座，而不是叫Uber或Lyft，或者决定他们是否希望所有食物、杂货或其他他们使用这些平台的东西都通过这种方式获取。

You know, I don't think we're gonna suddenly have a situation where people are, you know, only going to be going in the back of a driverless vehicle rather than ordering an Uber or Lyft or deciding if that's how they want all their, you know, their food or their groceries or whatever they they use those platforms for.

那么问题将是，你会下载另一个应用吗？

Well, the question will be, are you gonna download another app?

嗯，这也是一个问题。

Well, there's that too.

我认为关于采用这项技术的主要驱动力是什么，目前仍存在许多疑问。

I think there's still a lot of questions about what is kind of the the driver of adoption here.

我觉得这正是Waymo这类公司仍在努力探索的问题。

And I think that's what these companies like Waymo are still trying to figure out.

还有一点很有趣的是，他们正在不同市场专门测试截然不同的运营模式。

And what's also interesting is they're specifically testing very different operational models in different markets.

对吧？

Right?

比如Waymo在某些城市通过自家Waymo One应用运营叫车服务，直接与Uber和Lyft竞争。

So Waymo directly competes with Uber and Lyft in some cities where they're operating their own ride hailing service through the proprietary Waymo One app.

以旧金山为例，我们看到他们正在快速抢占市场份额。

Now we've seen in in San Francisco, for example, they're rapidly gaining market share.

他们甚至超越了Lyft，并在运营区域内挑战Uber的主导地位。

They even surpass Lyft, and they're challenging Uber's dominance in their operating zone.

当然，这只是个小样本数据。

Obviously, that's a small sample size.

但当你来到奥斯汀和亚特兰大这样的城市时

But then you go to cities like Austin and Atlanta.

Waymo的自动驾驶出租车实际上只能通过Uber应用进行预约

And Waymo's robotaxis are actually just exclusively available for booking via the Uber app.

这实际上扩大了Uber的服务范围

So that actually expands Uber's surface offerings.

这对Uber来说是顺风助力

That's a tailwind for Uber.

所以我不认为会出现赢家通吃的局面

So I don't think we're going to see a winner takes all situation.

我认为这些业务没有单一的运营模式

I don't think there's just one way for these businesses to play that.

我认为他们正在尝试探索哪些商业模式可行

And I think they're trying to see what business models stick.

目前仍处于非常早期的阶段

It's really, really early days still.

我认为这正是这个领域最令人兴奋的一点。

And I think that's one of the most exciting things about this space.

是的。

Yeah.

没错。

That's right.

这正是我认为我们应该多讨论Waymo的原因之一——他们正在不断尝试各种方法，看看哪些能成功。

That's one of the reasons I think we should talk about Waymo more is they are throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks.

看起来他们已经解决了安全问题。

They've seems like they've figured out the safety thing.

现在能否扩大业务规模？

Now can you scale the business?

能否进入更多城市？

Can you move into more cities?

能否降低成本？

Can you lower your costs?

这是他们必须回答的问题。

That's something they're gonna have to answer.

其他公司对此有不同的答案。

Other companies have different answers to that.

然后还有拼车业务这一块。

And then you have the ride sharing piece.

他们打算怎么做？其他公司又会如何应对？

What are they gonna do and what is everybody else gonna do?

因为他们正在利用部分需求聚合平台来扩展业务，但并非在所有情况下都如此。

Because they are using some of these demand aggregators to help scale their business, but not in every case.

如果他们能建立起足够强大的品牌，完全可以走自己的路。

So they could definitely go their own way if they build a big enough brand.

这里有很多机会，对投资者也存在潜在风险，但未来十年确实值得我们持续关注。

So a lot of opportunities, potential risks here for investors, but definitely something we should be keeping our eye on over the next ten years.

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我是Travis Hoyam，代表Rachel Warren、John Clost、Bart Shane和幕后团队，以及整个The Motley Fool团队。

For Rachel Warren, John Clost, Bart Shane and Behind the Glass, and the entire Motley Fool team, I'm Travis Hoyam.

明天因感恩节假期我们暂停一期节目，但周五将恢复正常更新。

No show for us tomorrow as we do have the Thanksgiving Day holiday, but we'll be back on Friday.

感谢收听Motley Fool Money节目。

Thanks for listening to Motley Fool Money.