Will AI Destroy the Software Industry?

解读SaaS股票的现状。

Making sense of the situation in SaaS stocks.

这是《富达金钱》。

This is Motley Fool Money.

欢迎收听《富达金钱》。

Welcome to Motley Fool Money.

我是泰勒·克罗。

I'm Tyler Crowe.

今天，我邀请到了长期的富达贡献者马特·弗兰克尔和乔恩·夸斯特。

And today, I'm joined by longtime Fool contributors, Matt Frankel and Jon Quast.

我们中的一些人将参加富达会员活动，会有一些旅行。

So a few of us are going to be at a Motley Fool member event, and we'll be a little bit of traveling.

所以我们提前录制了这一期节目，但我们会特别制作一期，回答一个听众的问题——我们意识到这个问题无法在单个环节中讲清楚，因此想专门做一期完整节目来探讨。

So we're prerecording this episode, but we're gonna do a special episode where we're gonna answer a listener question that we realized we couldn't do in a single segment, and we wanted to do a whole show about it.

当然，这期节目是关于SaaS公司或软件即服务的。

And it's, of course, about SaaS companies or software as a service.

几天前，我们收到了一位听众斯科特·庞德斯的问题。

So we got a question a couple days ago from Scott Pounders, one of our listeners.

他问：我的投资组合中持有不少SaaS公司（即软件即服务），这些公司因人工智能革命而遭受重创。

And he asks, I own quite a few SaaS companies in my portfolio, SaaS meaning software as a service, that have been hit hard due to the AI revolution.

有些公司显然能够适应人工智能带来的变化。

Some have seen obvious that they can survive with AI.

我们能不能做一期节目，专门分析哪些热门的SaaS公司最易受到人工智能的冲击？

Could we, do an episode which in which popular SaaS companies are most vulnerable to AI?

我特别关注的是HubSpot和Constellation Software这两家公司。

I'm looking at particular companies, HubSpot and Constellation Software.

在深入讨论之前，我想先铺垫一下SaaS公司的背景，解释为什么斯科特对这个话题如此焦虑。

So before we get too deep, I wanna set the stage here of SaaS companies, why Scott is so anxious about this, particular topic.

因为我不想假设每位听众都清楚SaaS公司目前的状况以及人工智能带来的颠覆性影响。

And because I don't wanna assume everyone listening knows exactly what's going on with SaaS companies and kind of the disruption that we're seeing with AI.

所以，乔恩，你能先为大家解释一下斯科特所关心的问题吗？

So, Jon, how about you kind of set the stage here for what Scott is asking for everyone else?

是的

Yeah.

当然

Absolutely.

我想谈谈这一点，泰勒。

I wanna speak to that, Tyler.

首先，我想谈谈SaaS公司整体情况，以及为什么投资者历来如此青睐这些股票。

First, I do wanna speak to SaaS companies in general and kind of why investors have really loved these stocks historically.

我认为有两个原因使得这些公司备受青睐，而且它们确实是很好的企业。

I think there are two reasons why these have been well loved and and they're just really good businesses.

首先，我们看到的方式是，这些公司提供一套软件产品。

And first, the first way that we see that is these companies offer a software product suite.

这意味着这些公司通常具有很高的利润率。

And so this means that usually these companies have high profit margins.

一旦获得客户，就可以以极少的额外努力开始销售这些附加软件产品。

And if it can get a customer, it can then start selling these bolt on software products with very little incremental effort.

因此，这直接推动了收入，其中大部分直接转化为利润，总体而言，SaaS行业的财务表现非常吸引人。

And so that just boosts the revenue, much of it drops straight to the bottom line, very attractive financials, generally speaking, in the SaaS industry.

第二点是，这些公司通常采用持续性收入模式。

The second thing is that these companies usually have a recurring revenue model.

一旦你获得了一个客户，他们基本上每个月都会向你购买产品。

So once you get a customer, they they buy from you basically every month.

这与像惠而浦这样的公司截然不同。

And that's very different than, say, a Whirlpool.

对吧？

Right?

惠而浦可能会卖给你一台洗衣机，你可能非常喜欢这台洗衣机。

Whirlpool might sell you a washing machine, and you might love that washing machine.

但你下个月不会再去买另一台洗衣机。

But you're not gonna buy another washing machine next month.

这得等很久才行。

It's gonna be a long time.

惠而浦做的是一次性销售、一锤子买卖的生意。

Whirlpool is doing a one time sale and done kind of a business.

SaaS业务则是一种持续收入模式。

A SaaS business, it's a recurring revenue model.

这真是非常棒的模式。

That's a great thing to have.

高利润率、持续性收入。

High margin, recurring revenue.

问题来了。

Here's the problem.

它们可能会被人工智能颠覆。

They could be disrupted by artificial intelligence.

几名熟练的AI提示工程师可以在短短几天内开发出能实现某些SaaS公司功能的软件产品。

A couple of skilled AI prompters can create software products that do what some of these SaaS companies do, and they can do it in just a matter of days.

投资者对这一点感到担忧是完全可以理解的。

Investors are understandably scared about this.

我们可以通过一个名为iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF的交易所交易基金（代码IGV）来观察市场情绪。

And we can look at the sentiment with a ETF, an exchange traded fund called the iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF, ticker symbol IGV.

这只ETF持有大量SaaS股票。

This ETF owns a lot of SaaS stocks.

在过去六个月里，它的跌幅超过30%，而纳斯达克指数仅下跌了约9%。

Over the last six months, it's dropped over 30%, whereas the Nasdaq is only down about 9%.

这表明投资者正在纷纷逃离SaaS公司。

So that shows us directionally investors are running away from SaaS companies.

当我们审视这一点时，正如你所说，这种趋势已经开始在像你提到的这只ETF这样的公司中显现出来。

As we kind of look about this, as you said, it's starting to show up in in companies, like you said, in this ETF.

在很大程度上，这主要体现在估值层面。

And for a lot of the part, it's happening mostly on valuation.

我们还没有看到整个SaaS领域出现大量可衡量的实质性证据。

We haven't really seen a whole lot of, I would say, like, tangible evidence of it across the entire SaaS universe.

但确实存在一些孤立的案例。

But there are some isolated examples.

马特，也许你可以谈谈目前有哪些公司真正被人工智能所颠覆的例子。

And, Matt, maybe you could walk through maybe some of the core examples of companies that actually have been disrupted by, AI so far.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，在线作业辅导平台Chegg到目前为止可能是最极端的例子。

Well, I mean, the online homework help and tutoring platform, Chegg, is probably the most extreme example of this so far.

该公司的股价已经下跌了99%，不是说错，而是自2021年见顶以来跌幅超过99%。

The stock is down by 99%, not even misspeaking, down by more than 99% since peaking in 2021.

基本上，像ChatGPT这样的免费AI工具已经完全取代了它的核心产品。

Essentially, free AI tools that are available like ChatGPT have literally replaced its core product.

就连谷歌，自从在搜索结果中引入AI功能后，也出现了这种情况。

Even Google, since it shows, you know, AI in the in Brighton search results, it's done that.

目前其收入正以每年40%的速度下滑。

Revenue is falling by 40% year over year right now.

其用户流量下降的速度甚至更快。

Traffic from its users is dropping even faster.

但对于我们所覆盖的大多数股票，包括听众提到的两只被严重打压的股票，目前除了投资者的恐惧之外，还没有真正发生任何实质变化。

But with most of the the stocks that we're covering, including the two that were mentioned by the the listener, that have been beaten down, nothing has really happened yet except investor fears.

据估计，仅在2026年，SaaS企业就已抹去了超过2万亿美元的市值。

It's it's estimated that more than $2,000,000,000,000 in market cap has been has been wiped out by, SaaS businesses, in the 2026 alone.

但一些我们稍后将讨论的最脆弱的企业，其收入仍在增长，越来越多的企业正在采用它们的平台。

But some of the most vulnerable vulnerable businesses that we'll get into in a minute are still seeing revenue climb and more businesses adopt their platforms.

例如，ServiceNow的股价在过去一年中下跌了50%以上，尽管其订阅收入增长了20%以上。

I mean, for example, ServiceNow stock has dropped over 50%, over the past year despite growing subscription revenue by more than 20%.

Datadog的股价从高点下跌了近40%，但在最新季度，其预订量同比飙升了37%。

Datadog is down nearly 40% from a tie, and bookings surged by 37% year over year in the latest quarter.

Adobe是另一个例子，其股价目前大约只有历史峰值的三分之一，估值也大幅下降。

Adobe is another one that's trading for roughly one third of its historic price, the earnings valuation.

我并不是说这些公司不会受到人工智能的影响。

Now I'm not saying that these companies aren't gonna be impacted by AI.

但在很多情况下，到目前为止，股价表现与公司实际的业务成果之间存在脱节。

But in in a lot of cases, so far, there's a disconnect between the stock performance and the actual business results we're seeing from the company.

让我来设想一种投资者可能面临的情景，并把这个问题抛回给你，马特。

Let me go in a little bit of a scenario planning and situation for investors, and I'll direct this back to you, Matt.

所以，我们来详细分析一下最理想和最糟糕的情况。

So spelling out kind of the best case, worst case scenario here.

当你观察这个领域时，SaaS公司面临的悲观情景是什么？

As you're looking at the space, what are the doom and gloom scenario for SaaS companies?

那乐观的情况呢？

What is the Pollyanna, hey.

这种情况对我们可能是好事，类似这样的局面？

This is probably good for us, sort of situation?

最糟糕的情况，简单来说，就是人工智能使许多这些SaaS企业变得毫无价值，或者至少远不如现在有用。

Worst case scenario, simply put, is that AI renders a lot of these SaaS businesses essentially worthless or at least a lot less at least a lot less useful than they are right now.

就像我刚才提到的，我们已经看到一些流行的SaaS企业出现了被颠覆的迹象，但并不多。

Like I mentioned a minute ago, we're already seeing signs of disruption in a few popular SaaS businesses, but not many.

但举例来说，如果人工智能让企业能够自行编写工作流程自动化代码，那对像Atlassian这样的公司来说将是灾难性的。

But for example, it would be terrible, for companies if, like like, Atlassian, if AI just allowed businesses to simply code their own workflow automation.

但重要的是要注意，即使在最坏的情况下，大多数SaaS企业也不会归零。

But it's important to note that even in a worst case, most SaaS businesses, they wouldn't go to zero.

只是部分高价值客户可能会采取自行解决的方式，或者需要更少的席位，类似这样的情况。

It's just some of their their, you know, highest paying customers could, you know, either take a DIY approach or need fewer seats or something like that.

最好的情况是，人工智能对这些SaaS企业而言更多是优势而非威胁。

The best case scenario would be that AI ends up being a lot more of an advantage than a threat to to these SaaS businesses.

几位行业专家，比如英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋，最近表示，市场对SaaS的理解出现了偏差。

And several industry experts, Jensen Huang, the CEO of NVIDIA, recently said that the market got it wrong on SaaS.

他说，他认为AI代理不会取代企业软件，但这些代理本身会使用这些工具，他特别提到了ServiceNow、Cadence和Synopsys。

He said he believes that AI agents won't replace enterprise software, but the a the agents themselves will use the tools, specifically called out ServiceNow, Cadence, Synopsys.

但他的逻辑可以适用于我们讨论的大多数SaaS公司，当然不包括CHGG。

But his logic could apply to most of the SaaS companies we're talking about, not CHGG, obviously.

是的。

Yeah.

不幸的是，我认为在谈到这个话题时，CHGG可能会成为我们最常提及的靶子。

Unfortunately, I think CHGG might end up being the punching bag that we talk about the most today when it comes to this topic.

广告之后，我们要聊聊那些我们认为没什么大问题的公司。

After the break, we're gonna talk about some of the ones that we don't think are in much trouble.

我们还会深入讨论一些我们觉得确实面临严重问题的公司。

We'll also get into some of the ones that we really think are in trouble.

但在那之前，我真的很想确保回答斯科特的问题，因为他特别问到了HubSpot和Constellation。

But before we do, I I really wanna make sure that we get Scott's question answered here because he was specifically asking about HubSpot and Constellation.

所以，乔恩，从今天涵盖的整个SaaS公司范围来看，你觉得HubSpot和Constellation处于怎样的位置？

So, Jon, running the gamut of SaaS companies today, where do you see HubSpot and Constellation kinda landing on that spectrum of, hey.

是会没事，还是这些公司绝对完蛋了？

It'll be okay versus this these companies are absolutely doomed?

坦白说，我不知道。

The truthful answer is I don't know.

你看HubSpot这样的公司。

You look at a business like a HubSpot.

再看Constellation Software这样的公司。

You look at something like a Constellation software.

所以，HubSpot，你知道，这是一个客户留存管理平台，涵盖营销、销售等所有这些方面。

So, HubSpot, you know, this is the customer retention management platform, marketing, sales, all that kind of stuff.

你可以很好地论证，AI完全可以胜任这些工作。

You can make a very good case that AI can do this well.

Constellation也是如此。

And the same thing with Constellation.

它拥有如此多的不同软件产品，因此至少有一些产品可以通过优秀的AI编程来复制，这是合乎逻辑的。

It owns so many different software products that it's logical that at least some of them can be replicated with good AI coding.

所以我理解人们对这两家公司的担忧，如果投资者从外部一看，觉得有点紧张，我也能理解。

And so I understand the fears when it comes to those two businesses, and I would understand if an investor would take an outside look and be like, you know, I'm a little bit nervous here.

不过，我要再回到Matt说过的一点。

Again, though, I will circle back to something that Matt did say.

确实有一些公司，比如CHGG，已经感受到了颠覆，但还有很多公司，包括这两家，目前只是担忧，AI还没真正抢走它们的饭碗。

There's a case where CHGG is already seeing the disruption, but there are many businesses, and these two are included, where it's fear, but AI is not eating the lunch yet.

你看这两家公司的过去十二个月营收，都达到了历史最高水平。

Both of these companies that you look at their trailing twelve month revenue, both are at all time highs.

你看自由现金流，这两家公司的自由现金流都达到了历史最高水平。

You look at free cash flow, both of these companies are at all time highs.

到目前为止，Constellation 和 HubSpot 唯一发生变化的是估值。

The only thing that has changed so far for Constellation and HubSpot is the valuation.

目前，Constellation 的市销率为三倍。

Right now, Constellation trades at three times sales.

自金融危机以来，它从未如此便宜过。

It hasn't been this cheap since the great financial crisis.

HubSpot 在金融危机时还不存在。

HubSpot wasn't around back at the great financial crisis.

它自上市以来，市销率首次降至四倍，为历史最低估值。

It actually trades at its lowest valuation ever since going public at four times sales.

因此，它的估值经历了巨大逆转。

So it has had a huge reversal in the valuation.

所以请记住我一开始说的话。

So remember what I said at the outset.

这些都是很棒的企业，利润率很高。

These are great businesses, great margins.

因此，它们曾享有非常高的估值。

So they enjoyed very high elevated valuations.

而现在投资者认为，这里没有未来了。

And now investors are like, there's no future here.

于是它们的估值完全走向了相反的方向。

And so they've gone completely the opposite direction.

也许钟摆已经摆动了。

Maybe the pendulum has swung.

如果投资者现在是对的，那他们就是在说Constellation和HubSpot没有未来。

If investors are right right now, investors are saying that Constellation and HubSpot don't have a future.

如果投资者是对的，那么这种趋势迟早会在财务数据中显现出来。

If investors are right, then we will see that show up in the financials, and it's only a matter of time.

但如果投资者错了，这两家SaaS公司如果能在人工智能时代蓬勃发展，那这将是一个绝佳的逆向投资机会。

But if investors are wrong here, these two SaaS companies, if they can thrive in the age of AI, then this is a fantastic contrarian opportunity here.

但这实际上取决于你如何具体看待这两家公司。

But it really depends on how you see it specifically for these two.

我个人并不清楚，所以我会选择旁观。

I don't know personally, so I would stay on the sidelines personally.

尽管SaaS是一种独特的商业模式，但显然有许多公司使用这一模式来实现各自不同的目标，范围非常广泛。

Even though, like, SaaS is a unique business model, there is obviously a very wide gamut of possibilities of companies that are using this particular business model to do what they do.

所以广告插播后，我们将深入探讨一些我们关注的、可能受到颠覆影响的公司。

And so after the break, we're gonna kinda dig into some of the companies that are on our radar as potential victims of disruption.

1915年1月，欧内斯特·沙克尔顿的船‘坚忍号’在威德尔海被冰层困住。

In January 1915, Ernest Shackleton's ship, Endurance, became encased in the ice in the Weddell Sea.

凭借决心、毅力和智慧，沙克尔顿带领他的船员度过了严酷的冬天，随后穿越了数百英里的南极冰原，接着又航行了800英里，穿越了世界上一些最凶险的海域。

Through determination, grit, and savvy, Shackleton would lead his men through a brutal winter, then over hundreds of miles of Antarctic ice, followed by 800 miles across some of the roughest waters in the world.

这是探险史上最为非凡和鼓舞人心的旅程之一。

It is one of the most extraordinary and inspirational journeys in the history of exploration.

想了解这个故事以及其他更多内容，请收听《探险家播客》，可在您常用的播客平台搜索，或访问 explorerspodcast.com。

Find this story and many others at the Explorers Podcast available wherever you get your podcasts or at explorerspodcast.com.

正如我在广告中断之前所说的，关于SaaS，有很多选择。

As I was saying before the break, there is a lot of options when it comes to SaaS.

它并不一定是一种商业模式。

It it isn't necessarily a type of business.

它只是如今许多软件公司经营业务的一种方式。

It's a way that a lot of software companies have modeled their businesses today.

所以，当我们关注那些可能被AI颠覆的SaaS领域时，我想听听你们两位的看法。

So but as we're looking at potential companies, parts of the SaaS universe that are gonna be disrupted by AI, I wanted to toss the question to both of you.

在你们看来，AI革命可能不仅仅是AI能取代它们的功能，还可能是它们所服务的客户群体本身会发生根本性变化，这可能会给这些公司带来巨大问题。

As you're looking at the AI revolution, maybe it's not just that AI can displace what they do, but maybe it's also the businesses to which they're selling could be radically different, and that could result in big problems for these particular companies.

所以，当你们现在审视整个SaaS领域时，我想先从你开始，乔恩。

So as you're looking at the entire SaaS universe right now, wanna I start with you, Jon.

你最近特别关注哪家公司，认为它可能是AI颠覆的潜在受害者？

What is one company that you're really looking at closely as a potential, victim of the AI disruption?

是的。

Yeah.

我担心ASAN，股票代码是ASAN。

I'm worried about ASAN, ticker symbol ASAN.

一般来说，工作场所或企业生产力和工作流软件，说实话，我个人从来觉得这类产品没什么用，现在它们的风险更大了。

Generally speaking, workplace or enterprise productivity or workflow software, you know, I've never really found that whole genre personally very useful, and I think it's even more in danger now.

看起来AI正大量进入这个领域，提供各种工具，让很多这类软件变得不那么有用，甚至可能被淘汰。

It seems like AI really is coming in here and providing a lot of tools and making a lot of this software less useful or perhaps more obsolete.

你看。

Look.

说到这个领域，如果我们放眼全局，Asana算是规模较小的公司之一。

Asana, when it comes to this space in general, if we zoom out, Asana is one of the smaller companies.

它的规模比许多竞争对手都要小。

It's smaller than many of its competitors.

即使竞争对手规模更大，它们的增长率也更高。

And even though competitors are bigger, they have superior growth rates.

这本身就已经是个问题了。

That's already a problem.

当你查看ASAN的净留存率时，它们已经跌破了100。

When you look at ASAN's net retention rates, they've already dropped below 100.

这意味着它的现有客户群如今的支出比去年减少了。

And so this basically means its existing customer base is spending less money now than it was last year.

该公司采用按席位付费的商业模式。

The company has a pay per seat business model.

如果你从宏观角度来看，假设AI的介入让企业变得更加高效。

And if you think about this, like, big picture, let's say that AI comes in and makes companies more efficient.

由于现有技术人员使用AI工具，工作效率提升，企业需要的技术人员数量减少了。

Their workers they they need less tech workers because existing tech workers are using AI tools, and they're becoming more effective at what they do.

这会导致对Asana技术的需求席位减少。

That turns into fewer seats needing Asana's technology.

而Asana是一个按席位收费的平台。

And Asana is a pay per seat platform.

因此，仅仅考虑到AI如何通过提升客户效率来颠覆它——这些客户将需要更少的席位来购买Asana的产品。

And so just thinking about how AI could disrupt it even there, just by making its customers more efficient, those customers would have fewer seats than to buy from Asana.

我认为这正是我们在ASAN的数字中已经看到的走势。

And I think that that's what we're already seeing playing out in the numbers for ASAN.

这似乎是一个正在衰退的机会。

It seems like it's a declining opportunity.

它看起来已经属于较弱的玩家之一。

It already seems like it's one of the weaker players.

所以，考虑到所有这些因素，ASAN及其股东的前景确实显得黯淡。

So, yeah, considering all these things, it it does seem to paint a bleak outlook for ASAN and its shareholders.

我走向了非常相似的结论，这是一家我今天已经用了三次其产品的公司。

I went in a very similar direction, and it's a company whose products I've actually used three times so far today.

所以这是一家我非常喜欢其产品的公司。

So it's a company that I I enjoy their products.

我觉得它们非常有用。

I I find them very useful.

但我必须在这里称它为Atlassian。

But I have to call it Atlassian here.

股票代码是TEAM，t-e-a-m。

Ticker symbol is TEAM, t e a m.

所以如果你不熟悉的话，这家公司提供的是Jira工作流平台。

So you're if not familiar, this is the company that provides the Jira workflow platform.

他们还有其他工具，比如Confluence，我经常使用这两款产品。

They have other tools like Confluence, that both of which I use, regularly.

在这种情况下，问题并不在于产品本身会被AI取代。

In this case, it's not necessarily that the product itself will be replaced by AI.

就像Jon隐约提到过的那样。

Like, Jon kind of alluded to this.

你知道，它有可能会被取代，但这并不是主要担忧。

You know, it it potentially could, but that's not the primary concern.

主要的担忧是他们的定价模式。

The primary concern is that pricing model.

Jon提到了按席位付费的模式。

Jon mentioned the pay per seat model.

而且不仅仅是员工会变得更高效。

And it's not just employees are gonna become more efficient.

你需要更少的员工。

You're gonna need fewer employees.

这绝对是事实。

That's absolutely the case.

但就像黄仁勋所说，如果AI代理本身也在使用这些工具，当一家公司有10个AI代理在为你工作时，你还能真的按席位收费吗？

But like Jensen Huang said, with AI agents potentially using these things themselves, can you really charge a seat license if a company has 10 AI agents, working on you?

这显然不是10个席位。

That you know, that's not 10 seats.

Atlassian的收费模式是按席位收取订阅费。

Atlassian, they charge subscription fees on a per seat basis.

如果使用该产品的员工被AI代理取代或补充，正如我所说，AI代理并不需要席位许可。

If the humans that use the product are replaced or supplemented with a bunch of AI agents, well, like I said, AI agents don't need a seat license.

因此，如果代理式AI让一家公司只需100个席位许可就能完成原本需要300个席位的工作，即使平台的实用性一如既往，即使Atlassian在整合AI功能方面做得非常出色，但若客户需要的席位减少，这仍然是一个不利的局面。

So if agentic AI allows a company to function with a 100 seat licenses instead of 300 while accomplishing the same amount of work, it's bad for business even if the platform is just as useful as ever, even if Atlassian does a great job of incorporating AI functionality into its platform, if its customers need fewer seats, it's a losing situation.

不过，公平地说，在最近一个财季，Atlassian的收入同比增长了23%。

Now, to be fair, in its most recent quarter, Atlassian had 23% year over year revenue growth.

所以目前这部分更多是一种担忧。

So some of this is fear at this point.

但有史以来第一次，Atlassian的企业席位数量出现了下降。

But for the first time ever in its history, Atlassian showed a decline in its enterprise seat counts.

这对股东来说是一个非常令人担忧的信号。

So that is a big alarming thing for shareholders.

这也是股价暴跌的原因之一。

It's one of the reasons why the stock is is plunging.

因此，我并不意外看到负面反应，而且我也不会就此认为它们完蛋了。

So it's I'm not surprised to see a negative reaction, and it's one that you know, I'm not I'm not gonna count them out just yet.

但我之前说过，有一些SaaS公司确实应该感到担忧。

But I've said before, there are some SaaS companies that should be worried.

像我们刚刚提到的那两家工作流生产力软件公司，它们就是其中两家。

The workflow productivity software companies like the two that we just mentioned, they're they're two of them.

我觉得这个事实非常有趣，马特，这也是我们需要回过头来探讨为什么我们在这里走向了相同方向的原因。

I think that that's such an interesting fact there, Matt, and a reason why we should kinda circle back to why why did we kind of go in the same direction here.

这是因为这两家SaaS公司有着相同的收入模式。

It's because these two SaaS companies, they have the same revenue model.

我认为我们应该向听众指出，仅仅因为某产品是SaaS，并不意味着所有SaaS产品都是一样的。

And I think we should point that out for our listeners that just because something is a SaaS doc, not all SaaS docs are created equal.

它们的计费方式不同。

There are different billing methods.

它们的收入模式也不同。

There are different revenue models.

有按使用量计费的模式等等。

There's usage based models models, etcetera.

因此，对于面向技术的软件产品来说，按席位付费的模式尤其值得我们保持警惕，在AI正在改变一切的这个时代，这让我有些担忧。

So the the pay per seat models, especially for more a tech facing software product, that would be something that I would look at with a little bit of suspicion, little bit of worry in this age that AI is coming in and changing things.

如果是按席位付费的模式，那就需要谨慎对待。

If it's a pay per seat model, that's something to look at cautiously.

你知道吗，我甚至可以再进一步说。

You know, I'll take that even one step further too.

不仅仅是座位许可这种模式，我认为这还暴露了一个问题：当前的商业模式并不适用于按人计费。

Not only is it just like the seat license sort of thing, I think what also it lays bare is the idea that the current business model doesn't work on a per person basis.

也许这会逐渐转向一种类似按使用量计费的模式，从根本上改变许多企业收费和运营的方式。

Maybe it starts to get down to, like, a almost like a metered usage sort of basis and would actually kind of fundamentally change the way that a lot of these businesses are charging how they work.

我现在只是随便想想，比如Claude，你通过消耗令牌来使用服务，这本质上是一种按使用量计费的模式。

Just thinking out loud right now, Claude, for example, you know, you have you burn through tokens to as, like, sort of a usage sort of case.

我不惊讶看到，当一些公司发现虽然使用的座位数减少了，但因为AI代理的使用，他们实际上更频繁地使用了产品，这些公司会转向某种基于令牌使用量的模式，这种模式更能反映企业的实际使用情况，而不是简单地按人头收费。

I would not be surprised to see if we if companies that are staring down this thing where it's like, yeah, we know that they are using fewer seats, but because they're using AI agents, they're actually using our product more that they start to go to some sort of, like, token usage based sort of model that is more reflective to a business' actual use case versus, you know, the per person basis for it.

因此，随着这些企业在AI时代不断演变，未来几年值得我们关注这一点。

So perhaps something to watch in the coming years as we see these businesses evolve in the a AI.

接下来，我们将探讨在AI颠覆时代真正能够生存下来的企业。

Coming up next, what we think are the real survivors in this AI disruption era.

嘿。

Hey.

提醒一下，我们制作这个特别的预先录制节目，是因为收到了听众的提问，我们也非常希望听到你的声音。

Just a reminder, you know, we're doing this particular prerecorded show because we are getting questions from our listeners, and we wanna love to hear from you as well.

所以，如果你对马特、乔恩、我或者团队其他任何人有任何问题，也许你想让我们深入探讨某个话题，或者你有一些零散的想法。

So if have a question for Matt, Jon, myself, anyone else on the team, maybe you want us to do a deep dive on some other topic, or maybe you have a little bit more of a one off.

嘿。

Hey.

你对这只股票怎么看？

What do you think about this stock?

我们非常期待你的问题。

We're we'd love your questions.

我们喜欢做这样的环节。

We like doing segments.

我们甚至喜欢根据听众反馈来制作这种完整的节目。

We like even doing these full types of shows available on, you know, listener feedback.

我们想听到你的声音。

We wanna hear from you.

所以，如果你想让你的问题在节目中得到解答，请发送邮件至 podcasts@fool.com。

So, please, if you wanna get your question answered on the air, send us an email at podcasts@fool.com.

我们唯一的请求是，始终保持愚蠢的态度。

Just our one request is always keep it foolish.

再次提醒，邮箱是 podcast@fool.com，podcasts@fool.com。

That email again is podcast@fool.com, podcasts@fool.com.

好的。

Alright.

所以我们再来轮流发言一次。

So we're gonna go around the horn again.

与其讨论在人工智能世界中最可能成为受害者的公司，我想谈谈那些幸存者。

And instead of looking at what we say the the highest likely of victim of being in the AI world, I wanna think of the survivors.

你认为哪些公司凭借其当前的商业模式，虽然不一定能大放异彩，但能相对较好地应对人工智能时代的冲击？

What are the companies that you think based on their current business models are I wouldn't say set up to thrive necessarily, but set up to weather the storm relatively well in the world of AI?

嗯，我觉得其中一些公司确实能蓬勃发展。

Well, I I would say thrive for a couple of them.

我不确定这个观点现在有多流行。

So I'm not sure how popular this opinion is right now.

但我确实认为，基于云的网络安全公司，特别是Zscaler和CrowdStrike，股票代码分别是ZS和CRWD，在代理式AI世界中具备蓬勃发展的条件。

But I do think that the cloud based cybersecurity companies, specifically ZScaler and CrowdStrike, ticker symbols are z s and CRWD, are are set up to thrive in an agentic AI world.

对这些企业而言，AI带来的不是威胁，而是顺风，目前市场仅凭股价表现就将其视为威胁，这是误解。

It's not as much of a threat to these businesses as it is a tailwind, and it's being perceived as a as a threat, to both of these just based on their stock performance.

首先，全球网络安全市场预计在未来七年内将增长两倍左右。

So for one thing, the global cybersecurity market is expected to roughly triple over the next seven years.

尽管AI被广泛认为能够完成这些平台的许多工作，比如识别软件中的漏洞和已知威胁，但它也会创造出新的、需要应对的威胁。

And although AI is widely expected to do a lot of the things that these platforms do, like identify bugs in software and threats that we already know about, it also can create new threats that will need to be dealt with.

目前，恶意提示正被植入大型语言模型中。

Malicious prompts are being inserted into LLMs right now.

代理式AI将能够自行创建恶意软件。

Magentic AI will be able to create its own malware.

而且它制造威胁的速度比以往更快。

And it can do it quicker than threats were being developed before.

像CrowdStrike这样的AI原生解决方案在这里处于绝佳位置。

An AI native solution, like CrowdStrike in particular, is in an excellent position here.

ZScaler提供的零信任访问也是如此。

And so is the zero trust access that ZScaler provides.

这对它的企业客户来说比以往任何时候都更加重要。

It's gonna be so much more important to its enterprise clients than ever.

CrowdStrike的管理层甚至称AI是网络安全领域迄今为止最大的机遇。

CrowdStrike's management has even called AI the largest opportunity in cybersecurity yet.

并且该公司今年的收入增长预计将进一步加速。

And the company's revenue growth is expected to accelerate this year.

Zscaler也处于类似的位置。

Zscaler's in a similar position.

我的意思是，管理层已经量化了这一点，估计仅保障代理式AI运营这一项就存在一个190亿美元的未开发市场机会，还不包括他们做的其他任何业务。

I mean, management has, you know, quantified this by estimating that securing agentic AI operations is an a $19,000,000,000 untapped market opportunity just by itself, not including whatever else they do.

因此，对于这两家公司来说，信任因素也同样重要。

So with both companies, there's also the trust factor.

人们信任这些公司。

They people trust these companies.

标普500指数中的大多数企业都在使用这两个平台。

The majority of the S and P 500 uses these two platforms.

假设这两家公司能够跟上不断演变的威胁形势，它们就具备了持续增长的绝佳条件。

Assuming that both companies are able to keep up with the ever evolving landscape of threats, They're in a great position to keep growing.

Zscaler和CrowdStrike的股价分别从近期高点下跌了60%和30%，我认为这是市场过度反应的结果。

In ZScaler and CrowdStrike, they're down by 6030% respectively from their recent highs, and I think this is a massive overreaction by the market.

首先，我想明确表示我同意马特的观点。

First, I wanna go on record and agree with Matt.

其次，我几乎选择了最稳妥的方案。

Second, I I almost went safe here with my idea.

我几乎选了非常保守的方案。

I I almost went really safe.

我认为Autodesk可能是其中一个非常稳妥的选择。

I I think Autodesk may be one that is really safe.

我看不出建筑工人会在人工智能领域彻底转变方向。

I I don't see construction workers really changing gears altogether in the world of AI.

我觉得他们会继续使用CAD软件。

I think that they stick with the CAD software.

但我决定选一个更有争议、更刺激的点子，作为我认为会挺住的项目。

But I decided to go with something more controversial and more spicy with my idea for something that's gonna be okay.

对我来说，幸存者是Duolingo，股票代码DUOL。

The survivor for me is Duolingo, ticker symbol DUOL.

该股票从52周高点下跌了80%。

The stock is down 80% from its fifty two week high.

据说有人要开发一个能真正与Duolingo平台抗衡的语言学习应用，但我根本不觉得这会发生。

Supposedly, is going to allow people to recreate a language learning app that is truly rivaling Duolingo's platform, and I just don't see that happening.

但假设你可以做到。

But let's assume that you can.

假设你能用AI做出一个和Duolingo一样好的应用。

Let's assume that you can make an app that is just as good as Duolingo's app, if you can do that with AI.

首先，如果你是一个应用开发者并做到了这一点，人们为什么会选择你的应用而不是Duolingo应用呢？

First of all, if you're an app developer and you do that, why would people start using your app over the Duolingo app?

这里有一些我们需要考虑的因素。

Few things we have to consider here.

Duolingo有品牌效应。

There's branding with Duolingo.

还有其他用户带来的网络效应。

There's also a network effect with other users.

所以你的新应用没有这些。

So your new app doesn't have that.

通常来说，你的新产品必须好上一个数量级，才能让人们切换过来。

And usually speaking, your your new product has to be an order of magnitude better to get people to switch.

光是和它一样好是不够的。

It can't be just as good.

它需要更好才行。

It needs to be even better.

所以我不确定会有开发者真的这么做。

So I don't know if an app developer is gonna do that.

那么作为一个语言学习者，既然Duolingo已经免费使用了，我为什么要自己开发一个语言学习应用呢？

And then a user, why would I, as a language learner, why would I create my own language learning app when Duolingo is already free to use?

这对我来说完全说不通。

So it just doesn't make sense to me.

如果你看看过去一年Duolingo的变化，它的股价已经从市销率32倍跌到了4倍。

If you look at what has happened to Duolingo over the past year, it's gone from trading at 32 times sales to four times sales.

明白吗？

K?

投资者的情绪从极度乐观转向了极度沮丧。

So from very optimistic investors to very despondent.

而且，公平地说，管理层确实出来表示过：听好了。

And, you know, the in fairness in fairness, management did come out and say, listen.

明年我们将专注于免费用户群体。

We're gonna focus on the free tier here in the coming year.

所以他们有付费版和免费版。

So they have a paid tier, a free tier.

因此，他们预计2026年的预订增长会放缓。

As a result, they're expecting lower bookings growth in 2026.

所以情况就是这样。

So there is that.

情况确实如此。

There is that.

从管理层的角度来看，这仅仅是因为他们专注于免费版。

Now from management's perspective, it's just because they're focusing on the free tier.

所以自然会导致预订量下降。

So naturally, that does lead to lower bookings.

他们希望改善用户体验。

They wanna improve that user experience.

但依然预测未来三年会有惊人的增长。

It's still forecasting incredible three year growth.

也许这全是管理层的烟雾弹和障眼法。

Maybe it's all management smoke and mirrors.

这种事在上市公司中确实会发生。

That that does happen in publicly traded companies.

但我认为，这家公司比投资者所认为的要坚韧得多。

But I think that this company is far more resilient than investors are giving it credit for.

我觉得它所做的事是合理的。

I I think what it's doing is reasonable.

我不认为人工智能会取代它。

I don't think AI is going to replace it.

我知道这是一个有争议的观点。

And I know that's a controversial take.

但嘿，我喜欢让话题有点刺激。

But, hey, I like to keep it a little bit spicy.

你知道吗，我本来想谈谈我对杜威林格作为AI幸存者的看法，但既然你已经说得这么精彩了，我就不班门弄斧了，今天我们就到这里吧。

You know, I was gonna jump in with my concluding thoughts on what I thought was but something as controversial as Duolingo as the AI survivor, I I can't top it, so I'm just gonna bow out and say that we this is all the time we have for today.

正如往常一样，节目中的嘉宾可能对其讨论的股票持有利益，而The Motley Fool也可能对该股票有正式的买入或卖出建议。

As always, people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about, and the Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against.

因此，不要仅凭你听到的内容来买卖股票。

So don't buy or sell stocks based solely on what you hear.

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To see our advertising disclosure, please check out our show notes.

感谢制作人丹·博伊德以及The Motley Fool团队的其他成员。

Thanks for producer Dan Boyd and the rest of the Motley Fool team.

代表马特、乔恩和我本人，感谢收听，我们很快再聊。

For Matt, Jon, and myself, thanks for listening, and we'll chat again soon.