万亿个理由值得关注。2026年8月21日

我唯一想说的是，兄弟，这跟你的观点完全没关系。

The the only I would say I suppose, mate, and it's just to it's not your point at all.

只是别让那种想法变成——市场不好我就不投了。

Is just to not let that become I won't contribute until things are blah.

天哪。

Oh gosh.

这不是你在

It's not what you said in

幻灯片里说的。

the slides.

对吧？

Right?

所以，你也不是在暗示别的意思。

So and not you're not suggesting otherwise.

只是如果听众听到这个，嗯，好主意。

Just if people listen to this, yeah, good idea.

我会先存一点，等到情况好转再说。

I'll I'll save a bit till till things get blah.

就像说，嗯，你可以这么做。

It's like, well, you could.

对。

Mhmm.

现实情况我们说过无数次了。

The reality I've said we've said a million times.

对吧？

Right?

当你等着市场跌10%的时候，市场却涨了20%。

When you wait for a 10% dip while the market goes up 20%

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，市场长期来看是上涨的。

You know, the market goes up over time.

你是个勇敢的人，敢说‘我还会再赌一次’。

You're you're a brave person to say, I will bet again.

如果你没有好的想法，找不到什么可买的，那也没关系。

If you've no good ideas and you can't find anything to buy, that's fine.

但别总想着择时入市，你一直这么说。

But don't try and time the market you say all the time.

我想说的另一点是，我过去只是举个例子，兄弟，其实也没必要。

And I guess the other thing I I only I only used to make the point, mate, and and it's not necessary really.

但如果你能在市场不好的时候找到额外的钱，那在市场好的时候也要找到额外的钱，因为市场很可能从这里继续上涨。

But if you can you find the extra money when things are bad, find the extra money when things are good as well because the market's probably gonna go up from here.

所以坦白说，每一块钱，而且再说一次，你错了。

And so it's quite frankly every dollar you and again, you're wrong.

只要你能找到的每一块钱，你知道，除非我错了，除非我们真的达到了资本主义的顶峰，否则我们回头看时会说，我记得2026年市场创历史新高，之后四十年都没再达到。

Just every dollar you can find, you know, unless I'm wrong, unless we have hit peak capitalism in the market, we look back and go, I remember how it was 2026 when the market at all time high never got there forty years again.

所以这不会发生，但你知道，除非那样，如果你能找到钱，随时随地都能找到钱，因为即使你的回报在下跌市场中是8.5%而不是10%或20%，你也会接受8.5%，对吧，就因为它会涨。

So it's not gonna happen, but, you know, short of that, if you can find the money, find the money anywhere anytime, anywhere, because even if it's if your returns are being eight and a half percent rather than 10% in the down market or 20% in the down market, you take the eight and a half, right, just just because it goes up.

所以你说得对。

So you're right.

你知道我最喜欢定投的哪一点吗？

The the the you know what I love about dollar cost averaging?

这就说到你的点上了，你可以跟自己玩各种心理游戏。

This is getting to your point, is you can play mind games with yourself all over the joint.

对吧？

Right?

但这其实挺有用的。

And that's but that's quite it's really helpful.

老兄，定投策略的意义就在于把那些因素排除在外，把你排除在外。

That's the point of having the dollar cost average strategy, mate, is to take that out of equation take that out take you out of the equation.

不过，你甚至可以让定投在任何情况下都感觉不错。

Except that you can even make dollar cost averaging feel good no matter what happens.

心理技巧是这样的：市场下跌时，你会想，我能更便宜地买入股票了。

And here's the mental trick is, the market falls, you go, I get to buy shares more cheaply.

市场涨了，你会想，哦，我的投资组合变大了。

The market goes up, go, oh, my portfolio is bigger.

但反过来两种情况也都成立，对吧？

Now the reverse is true in both those cases, right?

你也可以说，市场跌了，我的投资组合缩水了；市场涨了，我定投买不到那么多份额了，这太糟糕了。

You could have said, when the market goes down, my portfolio is smaller, and when it goes up, I can't buy as many shares at dollar cost averaging, that's bad.

但如果你选择换个角度看，换个角度看，关键就在于怎么解读。

But if you choose to just Frame it, frame it, It's all about framing.

我喜欢那个在超市里走过，看到收银台旁边那个巧克力棒的故事。

I love the story of walking through the supermarket and you see the chockey at register.

我拿起来，心想，我知道你们这些家伙对我做了什么，但我还是要买，因为我想要。

And I grab it and I go, I know what you bastards did to me, but I'm gonna buy it anyway because I want it.

对吧？

Right?

所以就是这两方面。

So it's both that.

所以我的意思是，就是那种故事，我知道发生了什么。

So I mean, it's that story of like, I know what's going on.

我在给自己讲故事。

I'm telling myself a story.

但这真的很强大。

But that's really powerful.

我们给自己讲的故事，关于这个有很多心理学和乱七八糟的东西。

The stories we tell ourselves, there's a whole of psychology and crap about that.

但这就是重点。

But that's that's the point.

所以定投是有效的。

So dollar cost averaging works.

不过你说得对，如果你觉得你负担不起比现在投入更多的钱，但当市场下跌时，你会想，好吧。

To your point, though, if if you if you if you don't think you can afford more than you are putting in already, but when things go down, you kinda go, alright.

我想我会多投一些钱进去。

I I guess I'll put some extra money in.

那仍然是一件非常好的事情。

That's still that's still a really good thing.

我回到你的观点，就是说，无论如何都要做。

I'm I'm coming back to your point, which is to say, do it anyway.

但如果你到了那个点，你会觉得，真的很便宜。

But if you get to that point, you're like, it's really cheap.

好的。

Okay.

我会再努力一点，多投一点，那么，是的，做吧，再做，再做。

I I will push us that little bit harder and invest that little bit more, then, yes, do it and do it and do it again.

对。

Yeah.

关于这一点，我还想补充一点，因为对你刚才说的自然反驳就是，但我怎么知道它便宜呢？

One more thing I'll add on that too because the natural pushback to what you just said was just like, but how do I know it's cheap?

你知道，我们总是说，无论相对于过去某个点是涨是跌，这并不真正意味着它是否便宜。

You know, and like, and we always say that whether it's up or down from a point in the past doesn't actually mean if it's cheap or not.

我们更想说的是，它相对于未来的现金流和潜力等来说是否便宜。

Like, we're more sort of saying, is it cheap relative to its sort of future cash flow and its potentials and the rest of it.

所以一个好的经验法则是，你越害怕，就越应该尝试增加投入。

So good heuristic, would sort of say is like the more scared you are, the more you should be trying to increase.

我喜欢这个说法。

I love it.

所以不要根据感觉来定投。

So don't go it on do it on dollar cost averaging according to vibes.

你知道吗？

You know?

就像当你认识的每个人都在谈论股票涨了多少，你感到非常开心的时候。

It's like when everyone that you know is talking about stocks and how they're up, they're like and you're and you're feeling really happy.

对。

Yeah.

我不会说我要说收回一点。

I wouldn't say I was gonna say pull it back.

别别别，别那么可爱。

Don't don't don't be that cute.

但是但是但是，如果你确实

But but but definitely, if you are

害怕，害怕。

scared Scared.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

就像，那可能是最好的信号，说明我可能需要加把劲了。

Like, that's kind of the probably the best indicator that this is like, I probably need to up my game here.

我需要，我需要，甚至需要尽可能多地增加定期投入。

I I need to I need to even I need to ramp up those regular contributions as much as I can.

不错。

Nice.

对。

Yes.

是的。

Yeah.

这能告诉你

It's a can tell

这一点。

you this.

而且这也是，我知道我老说这个，但真的很好。

And this is I love I know I say this all the time too, but it's great.

我觉得这最初来自摩根豪斯，就是那个观点：当我们向前看时，崩盘被视为最糟糕的事情。

I think it came from Morgan House originally, which is the idea that a crash when we antis when we look forward, a crash is seen as the worst thing.

当我们回头看时，崩盘总是被视为最好的机会。

When we look backwards, crash is always seen as the best opportunity ever.

它们其实是同一件事。

They're the same thing.

它们其实是同一回事。

They're the same thing.

但回过头来看，你的感受总是会带着一丝遗憾。

But in retrospect, the the the this your feelings will always be one of regret.

对。

Mhmm.

当我回顾全球金融危机，回顾新冠疫情时，我一直在买入，这个话题我们已经聊过无数次了。

When I look at the GFC, when I look at COVID, I was buying we've talked about this a million times.

我确实在买入，但说实话，我买得远没有我本可以或本应该买的那么多。

I was buying, but I'm gonna be real with I wasn't buying nearly as much as I could have or should have.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道吗？

You know?

我当时就想，哦，好吧，我知道我会做正确的事，我会在这里买一点，但其实就是，不。

I was just like, oh, well, know I know I'm gonna do the right thing, and I'm gonna do a little bit here, but it's just like, no.

这是你必须去做的，我试着记住，十年后我会有什么感觉。

It's something that you've got to just I try and remember what am I gonna feel like in ten years time.

我会不会回顾这段时期，只记得自己从之前的高点跌下来时有多难受，还是可能会回头看，然后说，你这个白痴。

Am I gonna look back at this period and just remember how I felt pretty crappy to be down from from a previous high, or am I gonna probably look back and go, you idiot.

作为一个专业投资者，你得经历多少次熊市才能学会这个教训，你这个白痴？

How many bear markets do you have to live through as a professional investor to get this lesson, you idiot?

就像你已经被这个教训打脸无数次了。

Like you've had your face rubbed in this lesson more times than you can count.

就像，

Like,

你

you

知道，是的。

know, Yep.

这就是模式识别。

It's pattern recognition.

这就是模式识别，而且再说一次，这并不是说我们应该对未来崩盘的前景幸灾乐祸。

It's pattern recognition and and again, that's not to sort of say we should we should rub our hands with glee, you know, at the prospect of a future crash.

但就像你说的，要认识到这完全取决于你怎么看，虽然确实可能很难受，但这也是一个机会。

But just recognize that as you say, it's all about framing and and while it can really suck, it is an opportunity.

还有我也总是提醒自己的一点，就是股价下跌的原因，大致来说，可以分成两种。

And it's also too the thing I I always like to remind myself of, there is there's there's two reasons broadly, very broadly speaking, a share price will go down.

第一种是，大家都只是害怕了。

The first is that, you know, everyone's just scared.

有些害怕，不一定是没有道理的。

There's some and for not in for not silly reasons necessarily.

比如一场全球大流行病，可能会让一半人口从地球上消失，那肯定会引起恐慌。

A global pandemic which might wipe, you know, half the population off the face of the that's probably gonna cause fear.

我知道那没有发生，但在早期那真的是有可能的。

And I know that didn't happen, but that was a real possibility there in the early days.

当时确实有一些严肃的人在讨论这种可能性。

Like, it was some serious people discussing that kind of potential.

但是当那种问题出现的时候，你得记住，这家公司能挺过去吗？

But like when that when those kinds of when those kinds of issues are sort of there, you you've got to remember that that is is there is this going to survive?

它会不会经历糟糕的一年或者一段时期，然后挺过去？

Is it gonna have a crappy year or whatever period and then survive?

还是说这是生死攸关的问题？

Or is this existential?

因为如果是生死攸关的下跌，那再多的耐心、长期投资和定投都没用。

Because when when it's an existential fall, you mean, there's no amount of patience and long term investing and dollar cost error.

我的意思是，如果你买的是安然，然后你说我是长期投资者。

I mean, if you if you're buying some if you're buying Enron and you're I'm a long term investor.

我在定投。

I'm dollar cost averaging.

哦，我真的很害怕。

Oh, I'm really scared.

我其实打算加仓。

I'm actually gonna add more.

那是个坏主意。

That's that's a bad idea.

实际上，我们之前说的所有内容都会产生相反的效果。

It's a really everything we've said is actually gonna do the opposite of that.

所以我也想把这个观点摆到桌面上来。

So I just wanna I just wanna put that on the table as well.

真正能给你信心继续持有、继续加仓的，其实是彼得·林奇的那套理念。

What will give you the confidence to con to continue to hold, to continue to add more is actually the whole Peter Lynch thing.

了解你拥有什么，以及为什么拥有它。

Understand what you own and why you own it.

这并不是说一家好公司就不会有一两年的糟糕表现。

And if you can actually and that's not to say that a great company can't have a terrible year or two.

事实上，所有公司都会经历这样的时期。

In fact, all companies go through those kinds of periods.

但如果你能坚信这只是周期性的，不是结构性的，只是暂时的困难，而不是公司快不行了，我想这也能帮助你更好地理解。

But if can have that conviction that this is cyclical, this is not structural, this is a bad time, this is not I'm on death's door, I think that probably helps you as well in understanding.

一方面要认识到，你知道，也许现在是时候稍微加仓，直到我们熬过这段艰难时期。

One in recognising that, you know, maybe now is the time to sort of top things up until we get through it as crappy as it is.

如果你无法形成这种信念，那也很正常，因为98%的股票我都无法接近这种信念。

And if you can't form that conviction, which is reasonable enough and for 98% of stocks, I can't get anywhere near it.

那就干脆什么都别做。

You just don't do a damn thing.

对吧？

Right?

但至少要有这种观点，因为市场会让人很难区分这两种情况。

But at least have that view because the market is going to the market is going to make it really hard to distinguish between those two events.

股价下跌在一种情况下和另一种情况下是完全不同的。

And a falling share price in in one scenario is a very, very different beast to a falling share price in the other.

说得真好，兄弟，这也是为什么你不应该追涨杀跌。

That's a really good point, mate, and and that's why you shouldn't chase previous movements in either direction.

你提到你被套牢了，还有当人们害怕的时候。

You you mentioned you mentioned being down and and kind of when people are scared.

我在新冠期间还坚持的一个想法是，投资里没有什么是有保证的。

The other thing that I clung to during COVID, and it was not nothing is a guarantee in investing.

未来没有任何事情是有保证的。

Nothing is a guarantee about the future.

我一直坚持的一个观点是——我之前也说过，可能有点老套——但市场从来没有不重新站上并超越之前高点的时候。

The one thing I stuck with was and I've said this before, it's a bit clunky, but the market has never yet failed to regain and then surpass a previous high.

这是什么意思呢？

What does that mean?

所以我得说，目前还没有失败过，因为我不能保证它永远都会这样。

So I have to say it hasn't yet because I can't promise it always will.

也就是说，市场总是能回到之前的高点，然后再涨得更高。

Fail to regain, in other words, get back to and then go higher than a previous high.

我喜欢这个观点的原因是，如果你相信这很可能永远成立，或者像我说的，是相信而不是确定，那么每次市场低于高点时，你基本上就能免费获得回到之前高点的上涨空间，甚至都不用考虑之后会发生什么。

What I love about that is if you believe that's likely to always be true or as I said, believe, not no, believe, then every time the market's below a high, you kinda get free upside back to the previous high even before you have to worry about what's after that.

对。

Mhmm.

而且日本市场什么的，别让我提那些人。

And, the Japanese market, blah blah blah, don't have me people.

我的意思是，在疫情期间，你会想，好吧。

My point is during COVID, you go, okay.

我是否认为疫情前的市场高点会永远成为市场的历史最高点？

Do I think that the market high before COVID was always was gonna be the all time high forever for the market?

如果我不这么认为，而且我觉得它会回到那个高点，然后再往上涨，那我几乎可以衡量我从这里往上的上涨空间，相对于我刚经历的下跌。

And if I didn't, and I think it's gonna go back there and then higher from there, I can almost measure my upside from here in the context of the decline I've just suffered.

对。

Yeah.

所以当市场下跌38%时，你会想，等等。

So when the mark's down 38%, and you're gonna well, hang on.

如果它回到疫情前的水平，从那里算起，38%的下跌大约对应50%的涨幅。

If it goes back to that pre COVID level, from there, 38% decline is about a 50% increase.

所以我，我会说，用引号括起来的“新”，我相信我的投资组合有50%的上涨空间，而且在我加仓的资金上，如果它回到那个高点的话。

So I I'll say new in inverted commas, I believed that I had a 50% upside on my portfolio, and in the money I added, if and when it got back to that high.

这就是关键，对吧？

And that's kind of the point, right?

所以你说得对，你不一定非得判断它是不是好价值，那种逆向投资的方式其实非常合适。

So to your point about, you know, you don't have to necessarily work out is good value, which is you the the kind of the the the contra vibe investing is is absolutely perfect.

我换一种看法，也是同样的道理，只是从另一个角度想：如果它真的回到那个高点，而现在还低于那个高点，那它离那个高点还有多远？

Just the other way I'd look at it is the same sort of thing, but just taking the other perspective, which is it's also just if it does go back to that high and it's below how far is it below that high?

那回到那个高点的空间就是我的上涨空间，而且我觉得它还会再创新高。

That's that's my upside just to get back there, and I think it'll go higher again.

所以你可以大致估算出它的价值。

So you can almost measure the value.

当然，不是每家公司都这样，你提到了买入和不买入的理由，你说得完全对。

And again, not every individual company, and you mentioned reasons to buy and not buy revenue, you're absolutely right.

但从概念上讲，就是这么回事。

But but kind of conceptually, that's that's the side.

所以对我来说，感觉真的很好。

So it felt to me, it felt really good.

等等，先别急。

Like, hang on.

3月30号，对，那挺好的。

March 30, yep, that that's great.

说实话，那真是吓死人了，我当时一点都不喜欢那种氛围和感觉。

I mean, scary as hell, and I wasn't I wasn't loving the vibe, the feeling.

但我就想，除非2020年1月那个数字就是历史最高点了，不然等我们涨回去的时候，我这一路上就能赚50%。

But I'm like, unless unless that January 2020 number is as high as it'll ever be, when we get back there, I'm gonna make 50% on the way back.

如果花三年时间，那每年就是14%。

And if it takes three years, that's 14% a year.

如果花五年，那我每年也能赚9%。

If it takes five years, I'm getting 9%.

我的意思是，那也不算差，但就是……

I mean, they don't that wouldn't be a specter, but, like, it's

那可不是小数目。

It's not it's not nothing.

那也不是没意义。

It's not nothing.

对吧？

Right?

所以这有点像，而且，再说，我也不是只在历史高点的时候才不投资。

So it's kind of and and, again, I'm not I'm not not investing when we are at all time highs either, by the way.

但我只是想说明，只要价格低于高点，你就会有那种感觉，就像，你知道，几乎像是白捡的钱。

But I'm just making the point that whenever we're below them, you have that they have that kind of concept of like you know, it almost feels like free money.

就是从现在的价格回到那个高点，感觉就像是迟早会发生的事。

It's that kind of the now to there, back up to that level, that feels like, what's gonna happen anyway?

所以我甚至都不用费劲去争取。

So I don't even have to work hard for that.

估值的工作是在那之后才开始的。

The valuation work comes after then.

再说，也不是说你应该完全忽略估值工作，尤其是对个股。

And again, not you should ignore all valuation work and particularly on companies.

所以请听清楚我说的。

So hear me clearly.

但是，是的，从那里往上的上涨空间相当可观。

But, yeah, the upside from there is is pretty impressive.

哦，百分之百。

Oh, a 100%.

对。

Yep.

对。

Yep.

是的。

Let yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我刚才想说，这确实存在那种自然的张力。

I was just gonna say it's it's kind of those there is that natural tension.

我经常看一些公司，我给你举个真实的例子。

I I often look at companies that I'll give you a good actually, I'll give you a real life example.

好的。

Okay.

我一直想拥有ARB这家公司。

Forever, I've wanted to own ARB.

明白。

Mhmm.

他们做那种防撞杠，还有汽车配件。

They make them bull bars and They do.

汽车配件。

Accessories for cars.

有人形容说是汽车的珠宝，这个说法我很喜欢。

Jewelry for cars, I've heard it being described before, which I really like.

对，这不是投资建议什么的，你自己做研究，等等等等。

Yeah, this is not advice or blah, blah, blah, do your own research, etcetera, etcetera.

但不久前它确实经历了一次大跌。

But it had a real tumble not that long ago.

对吧？

Right?

然后你就会想，哦，这很奇怪，因为有点像，你跟多少人聊过，ProMedics 是不是也是这样。

And it's kind of like, oh, and it's weird because it's sort of like how many people have you spoken to over the whether it was the same with ProMedics actually.

有一大堆公司都属于这种类型。

There's a whole bunch of them that live in that kind of category.

就像那种非常了不起的公司，对所有人来说都很好。

Was sort of like incredible companies just like for everyone.

但你找不到一个分析师或投资者。

Is very you just won't find an analyst or an investor.

他来了，哦，你知道吗？

There he goes, oh, you know what?

这是个糟糕的生意。

It's a terrible business.

我真的很讨厌那种投入资本回报率极高、还不断给我砸来大量自由现金、而且业务还特别有防御性的公司。

I really hate very high returns on capital invested with loads of free cash being thrown at me on a very defensive line right business.

对。

Yeah.

好品牌。

Great brand.

那真是太糟糕了。

That's just awful.

糟糕。

Awful.

就像，没人，你找不到，没人，最悲观的那个空头都不会这么说。

Like, no one, won't find like, no one, the bearish the most bearish bear won't say it.

但你会说，是的。

But but you'll go, yeah.

但就是，就是，就是有点贵。

But it's it's it's a bit expensive.

而且，这就是为什么我欢迎下跌，而且我很幸运，我不是想抄底，可能还会再跌30%，我现在已经持有一些了，还买了一些Pro Medicus。

And and and sort of like that's that's why I do welcome falls and I was lucky enough, I'm not trying to pick the buy, I probably fall another 30% now that I've got a bit of stake in that and picked up some pro medicas too.

它们便宜吗？

Were they cheap?

不，其实不便宜，我觉得它们没那么便宜。

No, actually, no, I don't think they're that cheap.

我把它们归为“好公司，价格合理”这一类，而不是因为它们跌了很多就显得便宜。

I put them in the category of great business at a fair price rather than they look like a bargain because they've fallen so much.

但再说一次，这就像，这就是为什么，至少，用你关于框架的观点，要把它当作它本来的样子来庆祝。

But again, it's sort of like this is the thing the the reason to at least, again, with your point on framing, to celebrate this for what it is.

而且这是一个机会。

And and it's an opportunity.

这正是它，我不知道会发生什么。

It's exactly what it I don't know what's going to happen.

所以我总是对举现实世界的例子感到紧张。

So I'm always nervous giving real world examples.

但我敢说，而且我确实在“稻草人”节目里说过这个。

But I dare say, and I actually said this on straw man.

我当时就说，我要买一些，而且这些仓位都不大。

I was just like, I'm gonna take and these were not large positions.

我这么说，是因为我们当时正在辩论这个问题。

Said, because that was the debate that we were having.

就是，现在是不是已经够便宜了？

Was this like, is it cheap enough now?

大家的意见分歧很大。

And everyone was a very wide divergence of opinions.

但让我最终下定决心的是，我确实买了一些，我当时就想，如果我不买，我会后悔，我会没法面对自己。

But but what tipped me over the line was did get some was just like, I will regret I will not be able to look myself in the mirror

在2020年，如果我……

in the year '20 if I

如果我现在至少不买一些，我就没法以一个严肃投资者的身份面对自己。

if I do not at least buy some now, I will not be able to look myself in the in the mirror as a serious investor.

而且，我就觉得，我要是再不买点，我就彻底没资格再在这个话题上以权威的身份说话了。

And, like, I just I I I lose all legitimacy to ever speak with authority on on this topic again.

就是说，你还在等什么？如果不是现在，那你还想要什么？对。

Like, what are you waiting for if not this you know, if if this is not what you are wanting Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

你还在等什么？

What are you waiting for?

现在，另一件事是——

Now the the other thing

我先停一下。

I pause here for second.

我之前也搞过一些IRB的东西。

I was into some of IRB shit.

我不知道你也在做这个。

I didn't realize you're in them.

我就是……你真的，哥们。

I'm just You really do, dude.

其实，卖掉然后做空。

Actually, sell and then do a string up.

对。

Yep.

继续。

Keep going.

继续。

Keep going.

在那上面高杠杆做空。

Hyper leverage short on on that.

这是你赚过最容易的钱。

It's the easiest money you will ever make.

就这么干。

At it.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我们基本上就是要做一笔交易。

And we're basically gonna make a trade.

对。

Yeah.

没错。

Exactly.

但就像我当时在论坛上说的，差不多就是，嗯，情况是这样的。

But as I said on on the forum at the time, which is is kinda like, well, here's the scenario.

对吧？

Right?

有一种情况是，它根本不会再涨回来，就像你说的那样。

There's there is one scenario which it just never comes back up to your point.

就像，它就这么走了，然后就没了。

Like, it just it just goes and it's gone.

这不是永远的。

It's not forever.

就像，好吧。

Like, okay.

好吧。

Okay.

犯了个错误。

Made a mistake.

这种事总会发生的。

That's that's that that that's gonna happen.

我觉得那不会发生。

I don't think that's gonna happen.

我觉得永远别说永远。

I think never say never.

我觉得那不太可能。

I think that that is unlikely.

所以突然间，事情看起来有点意思了。

So all of a sudden, things look a little bit interesting.

但是

But

我

I'm

还没自大到觉得自己抄到了底，或者接近底部。

not cocky enough to think I picked the bottom or anywhere near the bottom.

但如果真是这样，那我们就拿一些。

But if it so so let's take some.

这是一家好公司吗？价格合理吗？

Is this is this a is this a decent is this a good company, a decent price?

是的。

Yes.

确实是这样。

It is.

所有信息都告诉我该怎么做？

What does everything say that I should do?

它说你应该买一些。

It says you should buy some.

我的意思是，然后自然的想法是，对，但是但是但是万一它跌得更多呢？

I mean, well, and then the the natural one is, yeah, but but but but what if it falls more?

这就像，嗯，这个投资机会只会变得更好。

It's like, well, the proposition's only just gotten better.

假设这次下跌背后没有什么根本性的问题，也没有业务基础能力的巨大变化，那就像，好吧，我想我会买更多。

I got assuming that the fall isn't something there's not something existential behind it and some massive change in the underlying capacity of the business, it's sort of like, well, I guess I'll buy more.

那如果它一直跌呢？

And what if it keeps falling?

就像，到了某个点，我的投资组合里就会有20%的仓位，而且已经积累了这么大的仓位。

It's like, well, at some point, I'm just gonna have a 20% position in my portfolio and have built up such a position.

我不得不持有这家我认为非常优质的公司，价格便宜得离谱，但这会是一段艰难的旅程。

I've had to have this, what I regard as a very high quality company at an incredibly cheap price, and that's gonna be a brutal journey.

但是，你知道，快进几年之后，就像我说的，我未来想感受到的情绪是什么？

But, you know, fast forward x number of years, and it's kind of like, as I say, what what what is the emotion that I want to be feeling in the future?

我是想事后说，哎呀，我错过了底部，还是说，你知道，我本来可以做得更好一点。

Do I want to be going like, oh, I missed the bottom and or is this you know, and I could've could've would've done a little bit better.

你明白吗？

You know?

还是说，我什么都没做，因为我在等一个12倍的市盈率，一个超级优质的企业，而这根本不可能发生。

Or was it just like, I didn't do anything because I was waiting for a p of twelve, one of a hyper quality business that was never ever going to happen.

我觉得这有点像贝索斯说过的话。

Like, that that I think it's a Bezos quote in there.

你可能记得。

You might remember it.

大概就是关于，嗯，怎么说来着？

It's something to do with just sort of like it it it's expect what's it?

后悔最小化。

Regret minimization.

对。

Yeah.

就是这个。

That's the one.

后悔最小化策略确实是个很好的……

Regret minimization strategy is a really good sort of

非常强大的想法。

Way powerful idea.

确实。

Do.

我知道我一生中都深受其影响。

I know I've really taken it hard across my life.

比如，哪个会让我更后悔？

Like, which am I going to regret more?

答案不一定总是容易，但这是一个正确的问题。

It's like it's a the answer isn't always easy, but it's the right question.

这是正确的思考方式，能帮你挺过去。

It's the right thinking to try and make it through.

关于你刚才说的那一点，兄弟，我确实做过外联，这是事实。

On your on your point there, mate, do I know outreach for the record.

但我觉得，基于同样的原则，我还会考虑另一个问题，就是当你审视周期性公司时，尤其是那些短期前景有些模糊的公司，现在我们可以说，可选消费零售完全符合这种情况。

But I think the other thing I I do on that same basis is the question of when you when you're looking at cyclical companies, and particularly ones whose short term outlooks are a bit cloudy, and right now, we can say discretionary retail fits well and truly in the middle of that one.

而我确实有一些这样的公司，在可选消费零售领域。

And I have these kind of in that discretionary retail space.

对吧？

Right?

所以这是一个很好的，是的。

So it's a nice Yeah.

一个很好的过渡。

A nice segue.

但我觉得，这事儿我们之前也聊过一点。

But I look at it and I kinda go and we've done this before a little bit.

我们聊过其他公司。

We talk about other companies.

比如说，好吧。

Like, okay.

我持有哈维·诺曼的股票。

Is I I own Harvey Norman.

所以我就拿哈维·诺曼来说。

So I'll pick Harvey Norman.

我还会说JB Hi-Fi，因为他们这周发布了业绩。

And I'll do JB HiFi because they came out this week.

JB Hi-Fi的股价被砸得很惨。

JB Hi Fi and the the shares got smashed.

对吧？

Right?

因为去年销售额和利润增长都还不错。

Because sales was sales pro and and profit growth was okay last year.

但七月份的销售额是负增长。

And the month of July, sales were negative.

对吧？

Okay?

所以，但是

So But

那结果还是挺好的。

that was good result anyway.

那是假期。

It's a holiday.

是的。

Yes.

但关键是前景。

But it was the outlook.

所以前景，前景其实很糟糕。

So the outlook the outlook's actually shit.

那个，还有那个12，是的。

The and that 12 yeah.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

然后你看着那个，心想，好吧。

And you look at that and go, okay.

问问自己这个问题。

Let ask yourself the question.

JB HiFi五年后还在吗？

Is JB HiFi around in five years' time?

对。

Yeah.

我觉得这个赌注挺靠谱的。

I think that's a pretty good bet.

好的。

Okay.

等我们度过短期或中期的问题之后，五年后他们的销售额和利润会不会比现在高呢？

And once we get through whatever short term medium term issues we have, in five years' time, are their sales and profits going to be higher than they are today?

嗯，我是说，为什么不呢？

Well, I mean, why wouldn't they be?

当然，这些都不是保证。

None of this is, by way, a guarantee.

这是个概率问题。

It's a probability question.

但真的有可能吗？

But is it really likely?

对。

Yeah.

所以，而且

So And

你也是，你也是在这个基础上，你也不是说在2031年8月20日那天他们会

you're also you're also just on that too, you're also not saying on the August 20 in the year 2031 will they be

更高？

higher?

对。

Correct.

因为这不是债券或者期权之类的有固定期限的东西。

Because there's no there's no it's not a bond or an option or something with the set.

这更像是，可能正好在那一天，不，但三个月后，是的。

It's just sort of like, you might it might be that exactly to the date, no, but then three months later, yes.

对。

Correct.

对。

Correct.

对。

Correct.

就是一些类型的东西。

Type things.

所以这有点像，你在这些时间框架上有一定的灵活性。

So it's kinda like you you've got a flexibility with these home frames.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

这更多是一种思考框架。

It's it's it's more just the frame of thinking.

就像，好吧。

Like, okay.

所以如果他们在那个时期，或者大致那个时间，五到七年，十年，随便选一个数字，能赚更多的话。

So if they're gonna earn more in in that at that period or in that in that period or that roughly that time, five to seven years, ten years, pick a number, whatever.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yep.

好。

Okay.

那可能会高出不少吗？

Is that likely to be decently more?

对。

Yeah.

很可能。

Probably.

好。

Okay.

所以如果现在股价下跌是因为2026年年中一个月的销售数据，那这是否最可能影响它五年以上的未来，还是说这更可能是例外，反而证明了规律？

And so if the shares are down now because of one month sales in the middle of twenty twenty six, is is that the most like is that the most likely contributor to its five year plus future, or is it more likely that this is the exception that proves the rule?

所以你开始看这个，然后想，对。

And so you start to look at that and go, yeah.

实际上，如果大家对JB Hi-Fi七月份的销售感到恐慌，也许八月份更糟，也许十二月份更糟，也许他们明年会亏钱。

Actually, if if people are freaking about JB Hi Fi's July sales, and maybe it's worse in August, maybe it's worse in December, and maybe maybe they're gonna lose money next year.

也许他们会亏损，因为非必需消费品消费者罢工，而JB因为门店面积大无法覆盖成本，然后他们就会亏钱。

Maybe they deliver a loss because the discretionary discretionary consumer goes on strike, and JB can't cover its cost because big store footprint, and then they lose money.

他们不得不减记The Good Guys的收购，不管是什么。

They have to write down the good guys' acquisition, whatever else it is.

对吧？

Right?

好。

Okay.

那会发生。

That'll happens.

好。

Cool.

好的。

Okay.

再说，五年之后，那会是JB的将来吗？嗯，也许吧，但几乎可以肯定不是。

In, again, five years' time, will will that be the future of JB well, again, maybe, but almost certainly not.

它会成为一个更大、更好的企业吗？

Will I be a bigger, better business?

会的。

Yes.

他们会不会回头看，觉得那是周期性的？

Will they look back and go, that was cyclical?

对。

Yeah.

很可能。

Probably.

嗯。

Mhmm.

所以，你知道，就是那种纠结于去年发生了什么、七月发生了什么，或者今年可能会发生什么的想法。

And so it's it's that idea of, you know, obsessing over what might what happened last year or what happened in the month of July or what might happen this year?

是的。

Yes.

股价会对此做出反应，因为市场上的其他人就是那些旅鼠，如果你跟着他们，你就有成为旅鼠的风险。

The share price will respond to that because other people in the market are being the lemmings that you risk being if you follow them.

所以，哦，销售额下降了。

And so, oh, sales are down.

哦，那太糟糕了。

Oh, that's terrible.

杰里米·霍法的身价，如果股价下跌，我记得是15%。

Jeremy Hoffa's worth if shares fell I think it was 15%.

就按15%算吧，因为这样好算。

Let me make it 15 because that's that's easy.

大约是它价值的七分之一。

It's about one seventh of its value.

我现在不打算讲那个美元成本，抱歉，是折现现金流的部分。

Now I'm not gonna get to the dollar cost sorry, the discount cash flows here.

但如果股价下跌15%，市场是在说，这家公司从现在到永远，赚的钱会比昨天预期的少15%。

But if a share price falls 15%, the market is saying, this company, between now and eternity, is gonna earn 15% less than I thought it was gonna earn yesterday.

不是这个月，甚至不是今年，而是从今往后永远。

Not this month or not even this year, but from now till forever.

他们昨天可能判断错了，但今天也可能判断错。

Now they might have been wrong yesterday, but they also might be wrong today.

所以你不需要去判断哪个是对的。

So you don't have to work out which one's right.

我只是在比较市场告诉你它认为的情况。

I'm just comparing what the market is telling you it thinks.

所以昨天，我认为JV的折现现金流到永远值100美元。

So yesterday, I thought JV is gonna do a $100 worth of discounted cash flow till till forever.

而今天，说实话，变成85美元了。

And today, honest, it's be $85.

而且，现在再说一遍，我不是说这一定便宜。

And it's like, that now, again, I'm not saying this is necessarily cheap.

我也不是说之前贵。

I'm not saying it was expensive before.

这些我都不下结论。

I'm not making any of that.

我只是想说，你觉得市场这样合理吗？而且，其实并没有一个所谓的“市场”。

I'm just saying, does it seem reasonable to you that a market and, there is no the market.

没有哪个投资者真的在交易。

There's no investors who trade.

但你知道，实际上，市场传递的信息就是这样。

But, you know, for all intents and purposes, that's what it's telling us.

市场已经决定了，Jabbery未来的现金流，永远永远，会比昨天认为的低15%。

The market has decided, Jabbery's future cash flows forever and ever, amen, will be 15% lower than they thought yesterday.

我希望你听出来的是，这么做很蠢。

And I hope what you're hearing is that's a stupid thing to do.

谁会这么想呢？

Who would think that?

然后当我说答案其实是市场的时候，你可能会说，我大概不应该把市场说的列出来，对吧？

Then when I say the answer is actually the market, and then you say, I probably shouldn't list what the market says, should I?

对，就是这样。

It's like, yes.

没错。

Yes.

这就是关键点。

That is the key point.

市场绝对会反应过度。

The market will absolutely overreact.

市场会朝两个方向夸大其词。

The market will be hyperbolic in both directions.

它会异常地兴奋。

It will be extraordinarily euphoric.

会极度悲观。

Will be extraordinarily pessimistic.

而且日复一日，月复一月，年复一年，其中的个别公司也会面临同样的风险。

And day to day, month to month, year to year, individual companies within that will have the same kind of exposure.

这些股价波动会不会像这样——比如有个食品杂货零售商，明年会比今年多卖几罐焗豆。

Will these share price moves around there's a grocery retailer that's gonna sell a few more cans of baked beans next year than this year.

而Woolworths的股价波动范围，它不是特斯拉那种。

And the range of the Woolworths share price is not it's not Tesla.

明白。

Understand.

不是亚马逊。

Not Amazon.

我持有亚马逊的股票。

I own Amazon.

但你看那个数字。

But it's look at that number.

这就像，谁会傻到认为超市零售商的股价波动反映了他们的业务前景呢？

It's like, who in their right mind thinks that sort of volatility in the supermarket retailer's share price reflects their business outlook?

答案当然是，不会。

And the answer is, of course, it doesn't.

所以，再说一遍，我的重点是什么？

So, again, use that what what's my point?

提醒自己，市场并不知道。

Remind yourself, the market doesn't know.

顺便说一句，市场也不知道哪里出了问题。

Now don't know what's wrong either, by the way.

所以我不是说你能完全了解它，或者总是能了解，也不是说你可以随便交易。

So I'm not I'm not saying you know it entirely or or always I'm not saying you could trade in for the sake of it.

我不是说市场涨你就跌，市场跌你就涨。

I'm not saying if it zigs, always zag.

我只是说，如果你看到这种情况，觉得这不合理，那这就是理解的第一步，就是让我们，嗯，有点哲学地看待它。

I'm just saying if you look at that and say, that doesn't seem rational, that's the first the first step to understanding that is let let's be let's be a bit, you know, philosophical about it.

如果你能看着它说，这太疯狂了。

If you can look at and go, that's madness.

我可能应该比以前更少关注股价和股价波动，那你就已经迈出了一大步。

I probably should pay even less attention to share prices and share price movements that I used to, then you have had a massive step forward.

对。

Yeah.

是的。

Yep.

这是一种超能力。

It's a superpower.

不让一群情绪化的猴子影响你的思考，这本身就是一种超能力。

It's a superpower to to to not have your thinking influenced entirely by what a crowd of emotional apes are thinking.

你明白吗？

You know?

顺便说一句，这也不意味着你一定会是对的。

It's just it it it doesn't mean that you're gonna be right either, by the way.

我觉得实际上，你刚才说过了，但我还是要再说一遍。

I I think it's actually, I think that you you said it, but I'll I'll I'll I'll say it again.

市场大多数时候是对的，而不是错的。

It's sort of like the market is right more often than wrong.

它就是

It is the

整体上肯定是方向性的。

whole Certainly directional.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

而不是长期来看的投票机。

Versus voting machine in the long run.

市场确实会做各种蠢事，但大多数时候它做的是对的。

It is markets do all kinds of stupid things, but most of the time it does the right thing.

所以我觉得，这确实是个挺奇怪的事，不是吗？

So it's I I do I I do think that it's something that it's isn't it as weird?

就像，我们聊过很多次了。

Like, we've talked about this a lot.

有这些对立的概念。

There's these dichotomies.

你得在脑子里同时装下这些相互矛盾的想法。

There's these competing ideas you've got to hold in your head.

这就是其中之一：市场通常是对的，但也经常犯错。

And this is this is one of them, which is the market is generally right, but it's also very often wrong.

对。

Yes.

对。

Yes.

就是

That's

对。

right.

就像，现在它是对还是错呢？

It's sort of like, well, is it right or wrong now?

我不知道。

I don't know.

但这就是那种，你得尊重它的感觉。

But that's kind of like so you wanna respect it.

我觉得每当我看到

Like, I I think whenever I see

一个伴随的现象，

a concomitant,

你知道，我我我，我年轻的时候确实会这样。

you know, I I I don't I as a as a younger man, I did.

市场太蠢了。

The market's so dumb.

你知道吗？

You know?

它知道什么？

What does it know?

我以前觉得，但现在呢，我有点觉得，也许它确实知道些什么。

I was like whereas these days, it's kinda like, well, maybe it does know something.

我不能就这么忽略它。

I'm not gonna just wave that away.

你知道，也许吧。

You know, maybe.

我想，我想认真对待它告诉我的信息，非常非常认真。

I wanna I wanna take I wanna take what it's telling me very, very, very seriously.

不是因为我就要盲目跟风，然后马上做出反应。

Not because I'm just going to knee jerk it and and react on the back of that.

因为要么是我错了，要么是它错了。

Because it's either I'm wrong or it's wrong.

如果是我错了，那我就该卖掉。

And if I'm wrong, I should sell.

如果是它错了，那我就该多买点。

And if it's wrong, I should buy more.

对吧？

Right?

同样的走势，对应的操作却完全不同。

And it's like very different things for the same kind of move that that move that you're seeing.

所以关键就在于，至少能有一个独立的估值概念，大概有个数。

So it's just that ability to just at least have an independent notion of value roughly ballparked.

这个东西合理来说应该值多少钱，可能值多少钱。

What's this thing kind of reasonably should be, could be kind of worth?

而我已经有了这个判断，而且是独立得出的。

And I've got that and I've arrived at that independently.

这给了我一个非常有力的参照，让我能跟市场对比，至少能开始试着回答那个问题。

It just gives me such a powerful touchstone to compare it against the market and at least try and begin to answer that question.

这是那种疯狂鲁莽的“市场先生”式的事情，还是市场真的嗅到了很多人还没察觉到的什么？

Is this one of those crazy reckless Mr Market kind of things or is this the market actually sniffing something out a lot of people haven't caught onto yet?

所以，这正是你刚才说的，但我也想在这里强调这一点，因为尤其是在事后，我们总是回顾过去的下跌，然后说，市场当时怎么那么蠢？

So and which is exactly what you've you've just said, but I'm just I'm just sort of making that point there as well because it's very it's very particularly in hindsight, you know, we always look at these past falls and go, how dumb was the market?

对，是的。

Like, yeah.

但在当时，并不是这样。

But at the time, it wasn't.

对吧？

Right?

对。

Right.

你知道，就是那次，是的。

You know, that that time that the Yep.

那次大规模做空攻击发生时，有很多资源非常充足、极其聪明的对冲基金，用各种高深的理由告诉你，这个会跌到零。

Massive short attack happened and there was all these very, very well resourced hyper clever hedge funds telling you very advanced reasons why this was going to zero.

我当时想，也许吧。

I was like, maybe.

对。

Yeah.

也许真的是这样。

Maybe it was.

就是这样。

That's exactly it.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我不知道。

I don't know.

所以我……

So I

不知道。

don't know.

我在说什么呢？

What am I saying?

挺难的。

It's hard.

我想这就是我想说的。

It's what I'm saying, I guess.

真的挺难的。

It's It's hard.

这篇特别的布道就到这里。

There end of this particular sermon.

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